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We almost had a clean sweep, but UNLV couldn’t convert their two-point conversions. But getting a 2-1 record and making money on the day is ultimately what we’re about. Today brings another crowded slate of college football bowl games for our betting pleasure. We have four games with the first kicking off at 2:00 PM EST. This is where we start our turn to the best bowl games as seven of the eight playing today are from the Power 5 conferences. And the one that’s not in the Power 5, is ranked in the top 25.

2023 BOWL GAME RECORD: 6-1

Wednesday December 27th

MILITARY BOWL (2:00PM EST): VIRGINIA TECH HOKIES -10.5 vs TULANE GREEN WAVE

We talked yesterday about three factors we look at during college football bowl season: Motivation, Roster Continuity, and Coaching. The Tulane Green Wave have none of those coming into today.

Once Tulane lost their conference championship to SMU, they were left out of a New Year’s Six Bowl Game. Their consolation prize is playing a 6-6 Virginia Tech team in the Military Bowl today. So, their motivation is definitely in question. But the bigger factor is that Tulane is without their Head Coach who left for the same job at the University of Houston. And they already hired their next HC so Slade Nagle, the interim coach, is likely auditioning for his next job. Then there’s the roster, which has been decimated with transfers and injuries. The Green Wave will be without their starting QB, top two WR’s, starting TE, and several offensive lineman and key defensive players. They will likely be using 10 new starters between defense and offense.

On the other side of the field, Virginia Tech comes into this game motivated, healthy and with their entire coaching staff intact. The Hokies won five of their last eight games including a blowout of their rivals, UVA, in the last game to become bowl eligible. They are 6-6 but fully motivated to ensure that turns into a winning season. They also have QB Kyron Drones who developed into a very good signal caller by season’s end. He is a dual threat at the position as he comes into today’s game with over 600 yards rushing. Va Tech also has a star at RB in Byashul Tuten who is also a threat in the kick return game.

I’m a big fan of Tulane and what they’ve done in recent years. But their only key player on offense left to play is RB Makhai Hughes and Tulane’s running game was ranked 114th in the country. Va Tech will focus on stopping the run and force QB Kai Horton to throw the ball. That will be at the Hokies advantage as Horton finished the season with a measly 50% completion rate. On offense, Va Tech will move the ball due to Tulane’s opt outs and injuries on all three levels. This feels like too many points, but I just think the motivation is there with Va Tech and I’ll take them to cover this big number.

DUKE’S MAYO BOWL (5:30PM EST): NORTH CAROLINA TARHEELS +6.5 vs WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS

The big story in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl is that UNC QB Drake Maye opted out for the NFL Draft. But also following the star QB are WR Tez Walker and several other key players on UNC. They are now forced to start freshman QB Conner Harrell without their top WR’s and TE. And we all know UNC’s defense is a sieve. So the cards are stacked against the Tar Heels today.

The Mountaineers, on the other hand, are coming into this game with key pieces missing on defense and without their top RB. But they have their QB, Garrett Greene, who is a dual threat, playing and ready to go. He led a team that surpassed expectations finishing 8-4 and 4th place finish in the Big 12.

While two major points, motivation and roster continuity, favor WVU heavily, I am going to back UNC today. You can look at every publication or writing and not find one person picking North Carolina. However, UNC has star RB Omarion Hampton who was 3rd in the nation in rushing yards per game. And freshman QB Conner Harrell is a dual threat as well and can create issues for a WVU defense that was 88th in rush yards success and 71st in line yards. I believe UNC can hang in this game with their running attack and cover the posted number.

HOLIDAY BOWL (8:00 PM EST): LOUISVILLE CARDINALS -6.5 vs USC TROJANS

The USC Trojans are playing without three key players in QB Caleb Williams, WR Brenden Rice and RB MarShawn Lloyd. And that’s significant as those players could often cover up a historically bad defense. The Trojans allowed 34.9 points per game. In their last 9 games, they allowed 40 points or more five times. And they didn’t allow less than 28 points in any of those contests.

As for Louisville, they lost talent on offense as RB Jawhar Jordan and WR Jamari Thrash opted out to prepare for the NFL Draft. But they are almost fully stocked on defense which is a key as that unit allowed just 19.7 points per game. And the Cardinals should still be effective at moving the ball against the Trojans as they have a good backup in RB Isaac Guerendo who averaged 6.0 ypc.

While the Trojans still have talent on offense, the defense is the issue. Louisville can throw up some questionable performances, as shown versus Pitt and Indiana. But this USC defense is too bad for Louisville to not find positive plays in both the passing and running game. Which will allow the Cards defense to play aggressively and help them bring home the W.

TAXACT TEXAS BOWL (9:00 PM EST): TEXAS A&M AGGIES +3 vs OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS

The Aggies are without their coach as they pulled the plug on the Jimbo Fisher era in College Station. But I actually think that works in their advantage as Texas A&M carried a gray cloud over them all season. They brought in former defensive coordinator Mike Elko to take the reigns and bring the program back to the top of the SEC. As for the motivation, they have DC Elijah Robinson coaching this game. Robinson has accepted the head coaching position at Syracuse and if you saw that interview, you’d be ready to strap on the pads and play for him. Losing OC Bobby Petrino will be a factor but I believe A&M has the resources, and talent, to move the ball on this porous Oklahoma State defense.

And that’s where my betting angle lies as the Cowboys defense is poor. They rank 120th in pass success rate and 94th in havoc. Their run defense looks good on paper, only because it’s so easy to pass on this team. In their last game, the Big 12 Championship, they allowed 664 yards to Texas. Just three weeks before that, they allowed 592 yards to UCF and lost 45-3.

HC Mike Gundy has done a good job with what he has. RB Ollie Gordon is an amazing talent and will be a big factor today. But even with the question marks on the Aggies offense, they will be able to move the ball efficiently against a bad defense. And A&M has a top 10 defense that will have a script to bottle up Gordon and the Cowboys O. Take the points but I also like A&M moneyline (+130).

Now that you finished reading the NFL BETS & SURVIVOR POOL PICKS article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

I hope you all had a wonderful Christmas, Hannukah, Kwanzaa or Festivus. I personally have two more family Christmas parties to celebrate so the holiday season is still in full effect. But after a fun filled day of NFL and NBA, we turn our attention to College Football. Today starts the last 25 bowl games of the season. If you’ve followed me in WinDaily discord, I’m 4-0 to start the Bowl Season so far. And while that’s surely to change, as losses will come, I’m looking to see if we can have a big college football bowl season and will be posting all bowl games (between articles and discord) over the next week.

There are 3 games on the slate today and I will go over each below. Bowl games are very difficult for both bettors and Vegas as we have so much movement with the transfer portal and coaching staffs. Did you know someone can elect to enter the transfer portal but still play their bowl game with their current team? It’s really free agency in college which I’m not sure how I feel about it. Obviously, kids should be given a choice. But to see over 100 QB’s in the portal for only 133 starting positions, is really mind blowing. Anyway, onwards we go as we’ll try and work through the labyrinth of which teams have the proper stability, along with motivation and personnel, to cover their spreads.

2023 BOWL GAME RECORD: 4-0

Tuesday December 26th

MINNESOTA GOPHERS -3 vs BOWLING GREEN FALCONS

Minnesota lost four straight to end the season and finished with a 5-7 record. But they were able to get a bowl game due to number of teams needed to fill all the spots and Minnesota having a high Academic Progress Rate. And that should be enough for PJ Fleck to use as motivation to get his team ready to play today. They might not have deserved it, but they earned it based on their academic focus. Additionally, BGSU came to Minnesota two years ago and pulled off a massive upset as a 30.5 point dog. That has to be floating around the Minnesota locker room and adding to the motivational wall.

But the reason I am backing the Gophers is because of the BGSU defense. They rank 110th in the country in rush success defense. And they are 97th in havoc and 105th in line yards. The Falcons are decent at pass coverage, but the Gophers run the ball 60% of the time. So the key matchup will be the Minnesota’s run offense versus Bowling Green’s run defense.

Also factor in Minnesota is without their top two QB’s and Cole Kramer will make his first career start. But that just means a more concerted effort at dominating the line and handing the ball off to RB Darius Taylor, who is slated to be back after missing the last month. With the advantage they have in the trenches, I believe this to be the primary reason PJ Fleck’s team comes out victorious today. Add to that, the Gophers HC is 4-0 in bowl games and Minnesota has won six straight bowl’s overall.

TEXAS STATE BOBCATS -3.5 vs RICE OWLS

Texas State is a great story as they’re appearing in the program’s first ever college football bowl game. They finished second in the Sun Belt West Division and ended the season with a 7-5 record. For the Bobcats, this is all about offense as the rank in the top 25 in both rushing and passing offense. But with that comes a bad defense, as they’ve allowed at least 20 points in every game this season including a game where they allowed 77 to South Alabama. QB TJ Finley, formerly of LSU and Auburn, has been the star for the Bobcats as he surpassed 3000 yards passing on the season.

For Rice, they will be without QB JT Daniels as he retired late in the season due to medical issues (concussion). But their freshman QB, AJ Padgett, was able to start the last three games of the season and lead them to a 2-1 finish. The Owls are a slower paced team but very efficient in the passing game, ranking 38th in the nation in pass offense. But their rushing offense in non-existent as they are 113th overall in that category.

In the end, the public is fully on the Owls and have lowered this spread from 5.5 to 3.5. I expect it to close around 3 so I’m going to wait to place this bet. But even at 3.5, I will be the Bobcats. This total is 60.5 meaning we will see points. And in a high scoring affair, the hook doesn’t worry me as much. Instead, I’m more focused on the motivation of a team that is making their first appearance. I’m also backing an offense that in multi-dimensional and did not lose anything in the portal. Motivation, talent, and cohesiveness are why I’m backing the fave here.

UNLV RUNNING REBELS +11 vs KANSAS JAYHAWKS

In the nightcap, we have a great college basketball matchup between UNLV and Kansas. All kidding aside, these two notorious basketball schools have made impressive gains in their football programs over the past few years. Kansas’s ascension is primarily mapped to their hiring of HC Lance Leipold. He has brought his winning style from Buffalo and turned the Jayhawks into a contender in the Big 12. They are making their second straight bowl game after not being in one for 14 years. As for UNLV, they have turned around a two-year stretch where they went 2-16 to make it to their first bowl game in 10 years. In fact, their 9 wins this season are their most since 1984.

Kansas will be without QB Jaylon Daniels but have a serviceable backup in Jason Bean. But the big news for Kansas is that RB Devin Neal will play in the game and will be the best player on the field tonight in Vegas. For UNLV, they lost several players on defense due to injury and transfers. And this is coming from a defense that allowed 44 points in the MWC championship game. But the reason I back UNLV is their high powered offense, led by QB Jordan Maiava, is mostly intact and should be able to stay close enough with Kansas to cover this big number. The Rebels were 2nd in the nation with 37 rushing TD’s.

Now that you finished reading the NFL BETS & SURVIVOR POOL PICKS article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.