The Hot Shot returns for a loaded Thursday night slate. We have thirteen games and there are lots of options to choose from and we will cover a few of them below. Aside from reading this 1/11 NHL DFS article, don’t forget to check out our NHL DFS Projection Model which is available every morning. If you like what you see, sign up for more Win Daily content here.
*All odds and player pricing below have been obtained from DraftKings Sportsbook and are accurate as of the time of writing*
Ottawa Senators (+110) at Buffalo Sabres (-130) – 7 Projected Goal Total
San Jose Sharks (+130) at Montreal Canadiens (-155) – 6.5 Projected Goal Total
Toronto Maple Leafs (-130) at New York Islanders (+110) – 6.5 Projected Goal Total
Edmonton Oilers (-175) at Detroit Red Wings (+145) – 7 Projected Goal Total
New Jersey Devils (+114) at Tampa Bay Lightning (-135) – 6.5 Projected Goal Total
Los Angeles Kings (+114) at Florida Panthers (-135) – 6 Projected Goal Total
Vancouver Canucks (+105) at Pittsburgh Penguins (-125) – 6.5 Projected Goal Total
Seattle Kraken (-118) at Washington Capitals (-102) – 6 Projected Goal Total
Anaheim Ducks (+270) at Carolina Hurricanes (-340) – 6.5 Projected Goal Total
New York Rangers (-166) at St. Louis Blues (+140) – 6.5 Projected Goal Total
Chicago Blackhawks (+340) at Winnipeg Jets (-440) – 6 Projected Goal Total
Calgary Flames (-118) at Arizona Coyotes (-102) – 6 Projected Goal Total
Boston Bruins (-125) at Vegas Golden Knights (+105) – 6 Projected Goal Total
Montreal One – “Nick Suzuki ($5,500), Cole Caufield ($6,100)” – TWO MAN ONLY
It’s not often that the Montreal Canadiens are featured in the Hot Shot. In fact, this is likely their first appearance this season. However, I think that we have the perfect storm tonight. First off, the Canadiens play host to one of our favorite punching bags, the San Jose Sharks, and they are -155 favorites in a 6.5 projected total matchup. Next, they happen to have one of the hottest lines in the NHL. Montreal’s top line is currently tied for fifth among all NHL lines in terms of SATF “135” over their last ten games.
The next part comes down to lineup construction and salary considerations. As always, we have two center spots to fill so all else equal we have to give that some weight. Nick Suzuki’s price is fair at $5,500 and he’s had strong production with 34 points in 39 games “12 goals and 22 assists”. The fact that it so easy to pass on Juraj Slafkovsky “only 14 points in the same 39 games” helps make for an easy decision.
Of course, if we’re going to use this line, we’re also going to use Cole Caufield. At $6,100 he seems like a bit of a bargain. While his 27 points in 39 games so far this season are underwhelming for what we might expect from him, he has been much better as of late and is due for a big game. Between filling a center spot and utilizing moderate salaries with upside, so far, we are off to a good start.
Carolina One – “Sebastian Aho ($7,200), Andrei Svechnikov ($5,800)” – TWO MAN ONLY
Let’s start with the setup. The Hurricanes are -350 favorites hosting the Ducks in a projected 6.5 total matchup. On these bigger slates we like to target two-man lines and in some situations like Montreal’s which we previously covered, it’s an easy decision which two skaters to use from the selected line. I similarly think this line sets up similarly. While this line over has had middling stats, the two selected skaters listed above stand out.
Sebastian Aho “$7,200” is the tenth highest priced active center on DraftKings on this slate. However, within his past six games he has put up totals of 22.5, 27.5, 26.0, and 29.5 DraftKings points with at least three real life points in each of those efforts. He is clearly hitting his stride just in time for this soft matchup and also fills our second center spot.
Speaking of hot, at only $5,800, Andrei Svechnikov feels like a steal given his recent production. He has double-digits DraftKings points in six of his last seven games. This includes three performances finishing up with 24.5, 22.8, and 36.0 “hat trick” DraftKings points respectively.
You’d think with his linemates going wild, Teuvo Teravainen “$4,500” would luck into some points, right? Given how putrid he has been I will take a hard pass and pay the extra $1,300 for Svechnikov. I think any further thoughts I have regarding Teravainen are perhaps better left unsaid.
Winnipeg One – “Nikolaj Ehlers ($6,800), Gabriel Vilardi ($5,700)” TWO-MAN ONLY
When you’re a -440 favorite in a single hockey game, that speaks volumes. While their matchup with the Blackhawks only has a six total, it is no surprise where most of the goals are expected to be coming from. This line ranks tenth among NHL lines over their last ten games in terms of SATF “128” and is tied for sixth in goals “8”.
It is hard for me to stomach Mark Scheifele’s price at $6,900. Also, as of the time of writing, there has been no clarification regarding his status after an ear injury he suffered the other night. Given that this isn’t the soft NBA and instead it’s the NHL, I’d assume he will tough it out and play.
Since we don’t need any more centers, let’s turn to the two wings, Nikolaj Ehlers “$6,800” and Gabriel Vilardi “$5,700”. Both of the wings share additional correlation on Winnipeg’s first powerplay unit. Given the odds tonight, it’s a fair assessment to say the Jets may have a few powerplay opportunities. Although the price on Ehlers has snuck up a bit over the last few weeks, his production has also increased across that span. Vilardi has not been quite as good as Ehlers but has been solid and saves us $1,200 from Scheifele and these are savings we need.
Lukas Cormier – Vegas -$2,700 – We need very, very cheap defensemen to make everything work salary-wise. Currently due to all of the Golden Knight’s injuries, Cormier, only one game into his NHL career thus far is slated as quarterback of the Golden Knight’s top power-play unit. He grabbed an assist his first time out while seeing nineteen minutes of ice time and we’re just not going to get similar upside for this price.
Nick Perbix – Tampa Bay – $2,800 – Definitely not a sexy pick, but Perbix is contributing in a number of different ways between providing some assists and blocking shots, hence the 5.2 DraftKings points per game average. He fits salary wise and if you use every other player listed in this article your lineup will have $0 left remaining and cannot do any better.
This is a rough slate for goalies, so I think the idea is to pay down a little bit as you’re not losing much passing on the highest priced goalies. With as many games as there are I was shocked to like so few goalies.
Adin Hill may be an option if he returns but then we have to keep eyes peeled and the Bruins aren’t the easiest matchup to return to face. Furthermore, were also a bit salary challenged if you used all six main skaters listed.
Alex Lyon – Detroit – $7,200 – I don’t mind Alex Lyon for $7,200 in a boom or bust matchup hosting the Oilers. He is already confirmed to start in net and has a stellar 2.51 GAA and .920 SV % this season. That said being confirmed so early and due to his price he may be chalky and can get blown up given as the seven projected total indicates.
Thatcher Demko – Vancouver – $7,400 – This where I’m currently leaning. We know Demko is a stud “2.54 GAA, .916 SV %”, he is fairly cheap at $7,400, the Canucks are close to even money in this matchup and the Penguins allow the most DraftKings points to opposing goalies. Much like Alex Lyon above, he may get blown up here. However, if taking some chances, I prefer to take them against the Penguins rather than Edmonton.
Florida ML – (-135) – DraftKings – Facing the Kings who are traveling to the east coast, we have a team that has won eight straight hosting a team that has dropped six straight. While the law of averages isn’t absolute, for such close odds backing the Panthers makes sense.
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Earlier this week, Rory McIlroy proposed LIV Golf operates in a similar model to IPL cricket… Just as David Bieleski (@DeepDiveGolf) did 7 months ago.
WildCard Weekend is here and we are ready to crush another slate on DraftKings and FanDuel. We have Jason, Dave, and Tony to break down the 2023 NFL WildCard Weekend Main Slate to give out their picks and plays to help you make a profit!
After hitting Sahith Theegala at 60/1 for a MASSIVE first-round leader last week, golf is back and the PGA Draftcast are here for the LIVE Sony Open PGA Draft!
We’ve made it to the final game of the 2023 College Football season as Michigan and Washington face-off to decide the CFB championship. On paper, this looks like one of the better championship games in recent history as we have two undefeated teams who have found different ways to win all their games. So let’s get right to it and breakdown my favorite bets for tonight’s game in Houston, Texas.
Tonight’s National Championship has so many storylines that catch your attention. For one, this is the first College Football Championship that doesn’t feature an SEC team since 2014. Then there’s the Washington Huskies, who are representing the Pac-12 Conference for the last time. The conference underwent a complete upheaval in the preseason leaving just Washington State and Oregon State behind. Thus ending the conference’s storied tradition. And it won’t be USC, UCLA or Oregon playing the conference’s last football game but instead the underdog Huskies.
As for Michigan, Head Coach Jim Harbaugh has been suspended twice this season for varying reasons. But the biggest one was a sign-stealing scandal that left doubts to football fans about whether they were playing on a even playing field. And through all that, they were able to prevail in every game and make it to the championship tonight vying to win their first undisputed title since 1948.
Putting those stories aside, there is a game to play and a trophy to be lifted. We have a dynamic Washington offense that is dominant in every aspect. QB Michael Penix Jr. has proven he can play at the highest of levels as he will be drafted in this spring’s NFL Draft. He has three dynamic receivers in Rome Odunze, Jalen McMillan, and Ja’Lynn Polk. All three pass catchers will be called on to make plays tonight in order for Washington to keep up with the Wolverines.
Michigan’s offense is much simpler as they depend on the running game behind star RB Blake Corum. And once the running game gets going, Michigan has full trust in their QB JJ McCarthy to make the right plays. For the season, McCarthy has thrown just 4 interceptions and he didn’t turn the ball over in their biggest games against Ohio State and Alabama.
The offenses are close, with an edge to Washington. But the biggest gap is the difference in the defenses. Washington is in the bottom 5 in the country in rush success defense and line yards allowed. On the other side, Michigan is 8th in both categories. Washington has a great O-Line but they haven’t seen a pass rush like Michigan, who is 10th in Havoc.
In the end, I think there is a way for Washington to win this game. They can pull off a game plan like TCU did last year when they upset Michigan. But that took the Frogs creating 3 turnovers and putting up almost 500 yards of offense. Those two tasks are going to be very hard to replicate versus this Michigan team. The Wolverines have a simpler equation to winning tonight and that’s with their bread-and-butter; run game and defense. Those two make for a combination that will make it tough for Washington to compete with. I will be cheering for the dog, but I will be betting the favorite. It’s Harbaugh’s time…..
Here are a few props/bets I also like for tonight:
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The NFL season wraps up today in Week 18. And luckily for us football fans, there are many important games on the slate for us to watch and bet on. This has been a fantastic season for the NFL as the parody they aim for has been reached. While Baltimore and San Francisco are locked into the number one seeds in their conference, both are vulnerable and the postseason tournament will be wide open.
We had a great week last weekend by posting a 4-1 record. We’ll look to extend that momentum into Week 18 with the below picks.
The Saints have been one of the most underwhelming teams in the NFL this season. But they played their most complete game last week in Tampa to give them a shot at the NFC South Division title. They’ll need to win today, and hope for a Carolina upset of the Buccaneers to get in the dance. Stranger things have occurred!
But this pick isn’t about the Saints as much as it is about their opponent, the Atlanta Falcons. Head Coach Arthur Smith is definitely on the hot seat. From his constant swapping of starting QB’s, to his complete mismanagement of his start players, he’s completed a mess in Atlanta. And the unfortunate part is they should have won this division with the talent they have. They come into this game with losses in 3 of their last 4 games. Including two embarrassing ones; a 20 point loss to Chicago and 2 point loss to Carolina.
I don’t see how the Falcons can stay motivated today. And while this will be a heavy public bet, I’m good riding that side as long as it stays at 3 or less.
The Cardinals pulled off the upset of the season last week when they beat the Philadelphia Eagles by a score of 35-31. Head Coach Jonathan Gannon has the Cardinals playing hard to end the season which is a key factor in this bet. They also play better at home, despite their two big road upsets, as they are 4-3 ATS and 2-5 SU in the desert. As for their opponent, the Seahawks, they come in losers in 5 of their last 7. And their two wins are last minute miracles against the Eagles and Titans. Surprisingly, the wheels have fallen off the wagon as they are struggling on both sides of the ball.
The betting market is even on this game so the line isn’t anticipated to move much between now and kickoff. I’ll trust Kyler Murray to have his team hang tough and maybe pull off the outright upset.
The Raiders have played extremely hard under HC Antonio Pierce. Their play on the field fully represents the tough attitude that Pierce displayed when he played. They’ve also won seven straight games against the Broncos including their opening week victory in Denver.
As for Denver, the recent change in QB has left a cloud of doubt over the team. Yes, they were victorious last week against the Chargers. But they struggled to pull away against an Easton Stick led attack from LA. Where on the other hand, the Raiders crushed the same Chargers by a score of 63-21 just 3 weeks ago.
I’ll take the team that has some fight left in them versus a team that is in full transition mode under HC Sean Payton.
I was on the Bears earlier this week. I love how HC Matt Eberflus has this team playing to close out the season. It’s what Chicago fans envisioned when 2023 started. But instead it took half the season to get things straightened out and now it’s too little and too late in the Windy City. However, the best news for Chicago is that they’ll have the number one pick in next years draft due to the ineptitude of the Panthers. So this season is still a success and the future is bright.
But I’ve flipped my lean of Chicago to Green Bay for a few reasons. First, Green Bay has shown resilience on multiple occasions this year. Most importantly, they’ve shown it when playing their Division rivals. They are 3-2 in NFC North games, but impressively are 2-0 in rematches. They dismantled both the Lions and Vikings in their second games. And now they try to match that success playing the Bears for a second time.
The other reason I now like Green Bay is because of some motivational words that Justin Fields gave them. While it may not be much, he took a shot at the small town Packers. Their fans are sure to be dialed into that and ready to bring the heat today. I’ll take a fired up Packer fan base to bring the heat and make a difference in the game today.
Dolphins can’t win against good teams. Ride the Bills especially now they have some freedom knowing they’re in the dance.
Now that you finished reading the NFL BETS & SURVIVOR POOL PICKS article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.
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