DraftKings

NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown Week 12

Hopefully everyone had a great holiday and isn’t too stuffed because we have 10 games coming up on Sunday! There is a lot to get to and it’s a pretty interesting slate with some suspected chalk and some strong pivots away from it. Let’s talk about that and so much more in NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown Week 12 to carve our paths to green screens!

Jets at Texans, O/U of 44.5 (Texans -2.5)

Jets

QB – Zach Wilson is starting and that’s great but it’s not where I’m heading. He has a 4:9 TD:INT ratio on the season and he’s 36th in fantasy points per dropback. He’s also 31st in fantasy points per game and is constantly getting pressured. On top of it, Houston is sixth in DVOA against the pass despite being in the bottom 10 in passing yards given up. Wilson just hasn’t given us much reason to believe in the fantasy production at this juncture and he’s missed a month of action. 

RB – We could theoretically have some value from the Jets backfield because Michael Carter is out for the next couple of weeks. It will be hard to dip this low given some of the other running back plays we have available this week though. Tevin Coleman and Ty Johnson split the snaps at about 33% each last week but Coleman had the advantage in touches at 6-2. That’s the part that’s not super encouraging but the matchup is very strong. Houston has allowed the second-most rushing yards to running backs and they are 23rd in DVOA against the run. We’ll need to monitor the practice reports here to see if there’s someone worth chasing. 

WR – This could be very interesting because Corey Davis could miss this game. That would leave Jamison Crowder and Elijah Moore as the main two targets but I do have to point out that DraftKings was (reasonably) aggressive with Moore’s salary. He’s $5,600 after two massive games in the past three and he’s becoming steadier in his production. Since Week 7 he hasn’t been under 10 DraftKings points and last week finally saw an 80% snap rate and finished ahead of Crowder. Week 7 seems to be a line in the sand after their bye week because since then, Moore leads the team in targets despite playing just 56% of the total snaps. He’s produced with any player at quarterback and we should be interested. Crowder gets a bump with Davis doubtful.

TE – Even after the Jets lost Tyler Kroft to IR, Ryan Griffin managed just four targets. Part of the issue with him is if Mitchell continues to play a full-time role, they have three receivers that are going to demand a ton of targets. You can construct a narrative that says Griffin helps cushion the blow of losing Carter, but he didn’t play much last week. Even at an almost minimum salary, I’m not going here. 

D/ST – The salary isn’t bad but with only eight turnovers forced, it’s a bit of a tough sell. The pressure rate is under 23% so even though they have gotten home 20 times, this isn’t the best spot for them. They’re giving up the most points per game in the league and are dead last in total DVOA. 

Cash – Moore, Crowder

GPP – See Cash

Texans 

QB – Is Tyrod Taylor going to sucker me back in? Perhaps, because the matchup is fantastic again this week. He’s now hit value in three of his four starts this season, including the Cleveland game. Last week saw horrendous weather and he made it work by rushing in two scores and that is always in the back pocket. The Jets have fallen to 32nd in DVOA against the pass and yards allowed per attempt. Taylor is now seventh in fantasy points per dropback, which is definitely a surprise. The efficiency is there for him and the salary is still super low. 

RB – This might officially be the grossest backfield in the league as David Johnson and Rex Burkhead combined for 31 rush attempts last week and they generated 58 yards. FIFTY. EIGHT. YARDS. On 31 attempts. Burkhead took the reigns with 18 carries and it does have to be pointed out that the matchup is great on this side as well. The Jets are 32nd in DVOA against the run and they are just three yards behind Houston for the second-most yards. The biggest difference is they’ve allowed the most rushing touchdowns on the season so this is absolutely a spot to attack. I’m not sure if I can stomach Burkhead in my lineups this week even with the volume more secure after the release of Phillip Lindsay. 

WR – I’m fine giving Brandin Cooks a pass last week in some truly terrible weather and one of the uglier games on that slate. This week is a big bounce-back spot for him though as the Jets get trounced the passing game and his salary came down. He’s still third in air yards share, 10th in receptions, ninth in route percentage, and fifth in target share. Regardless of Bryce Hall, Isaiah Dunn, or Javelin Guidry, there is no corner who we should shy away for Cooks. 

It appears that Hell could draw Nico Collins, the Win Daily darling who is still owed a touchdown after last week. Cooks is trending popular and it could be a big-time pivot, although the ceiling has not flashed quite yet. The target share is just 10.4% but it looks like Hall would see the most of Collins. Hall has allowed 11.8 yards per reception and 1.47 fantasy points per target. 

TE – We’re still seeing too much of a split between Pharaoh Brown and Brevin Jordan to do anything with them. There was some hope that with Jordan Akins inactive, someone would take the lead and Brown did play the most snaps at 84%. That only amounted to four targets so outside of a touchdown, there’s not much to hang on to here with the other passing game options. 

D/ST – We punted a little bit with Houston last week and I’m going right back this week. They are 10th in DVOA and even though they’re 27th in points allowed per game, they create splash plays. The 21 sacks aren’t the best but Wilson has the highest pressure rate in football and they’ve generated 19 turnovers. That’s plenty for this salary and for me, they’re about as easy a play as it gets in this salary range. 

Cash – Cooks, D/ST

GPP – Tyrod (especially with another cheap QB trending towards chalk), Collins, Burkhead, Johnson 

Buccaneers at Colts, O/U of 53.5 (Bucs -3)

Buccaneers

QB – Tom Brady was one play away from throwing for 350 yards and three touchdowns last week, if not for a questionable penalty. Brady is now second in attempts, yards, deep targets, first in red zone attempts, 10th in fantasy points per drop back, and first in touchdowns. You really can’t ask for much else and Indy is 20th in DVOA against the pass and 22nd in yards per attempt given up. Brady is a play in any format imaginable. 

RB – I’m not exactly the largest fan of Leonard Fournette here at the salary. He was under 60% of the snaps on Monday night which is a little surprising to see. He did rack up 16 touches but only 10 rushing attempts and that is notable because he hasn’t been over 11 in the past three weeks. The previous two games were understandable as the Bucs were behind but this past one saw them handle the Giants pretty easily. He is picking up receiving work with 20 targets over these past three games but he’s pushing $7,000. On top of that, Indy has a strong rush defense as the second-ranked DVOA. They have allowed 4.4 yards per carry which is just 18th but it’s not hard to build the script where Brady just throws it another 35+ times. 

WR – Antonio Brown continues to be out so it continues to be easier to stack with Brady through both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. They are both super appealing and I’ll likely side with Godwin more often than not but I’m not the biggest Evans guy out there, so the bias is noted. Godwin leads the team in targets and red-zone targets, a nice notch in his favor. He also sits fifth in slot rate this year and that puts him on Kenny Moore and that is not someone to worry about with a catch rate over 60% allowed. 

Xavier Rhodes is going to draw the assignment on Evans who has the 10th most deep targets and the seventh-most unrealized air yards in football. Evans also leads in touchdowns so he is never out of play with mutual-score upside and Rhodes is giving up around four inches and 20 pounds. He’s also giving up a 125.3 passer rating and 14.7 yards per reception. We know what to do with this passing attack. 

TE – Rob Gronkowski might be my favorite tight end play on the slate since we are missing some of the elite options this week. He only played 58.9% of the snaps but saw eight targets and appeared to be fully healthy. It was annoying to see Cameron Brate see four red-zone targets but the salary for Gronk does not reflect the floor or the upside. He’s scored four touchdowns in the five games that he’s played and is fourth in yards per route among tight ends. With how much the Bucs are throwing, he’s safe for 6-8 targets every week, even if AB comes back in my opinion. 

D/ST – The Bucs aren’t really going to be in my pool at this salary but that doesn’t mean they aren’t a good defense. They’re top five in pressure rate at 27.4% and Indy has a bottom 10 pressure rate allowed. Tampa is seventh in total DVOA and they have 24 sacks on the year but generally, I won’t pay for defenses. 

Cash – Brady, Godwin, Gronk

GPP – Evans (I can’t blame you for cash), Fournette

Colts 

QB – I’m going to pass on Carson Wentz again, although he could hit 3x. I don’t think he’ll hit a lot more than that so I’ll go elsewhere with Tampa being seventh in DVOA against the pass and yards per attempt allowed. It’s hard to put your finger on what Wentz is doing well on top of that. He’s 10th in attempts but just 13th in yards, 17th in air yards, 19th in fantasy points per drop back, and just 17th in points per game. With the red zone work just sitting at 15th, we have better options on paper. 

RB – We’re sort of at the point where I’m afraid to fade Jonathan Taylor. Surely, he won’t score another five touchdowns but his workload is immense right now and that negates the tougher matchup. He’s second in the league in carries and Taylor is up to an 11.1% target share. The Bucs have allowed the least amount of rushing yards but they’ve also faced the least amount of rushing attempts. They are second in yards per carry allowed and fourth in DVOA but Buffalo was good against the run as well. I’d be surprised if he carries a lot of popularity but I will have exposure in GPP’s without fail this week. 

WR – The presence of T.Y. Hilton has really made it difficult to chase either him or Zach Pascal because the Colts are not a pass-heavy offense. That could change this week since they should need to pass to keep up and Pascal leads the league in slot rate at 64.6%. Ross Cockrell has played slot for the Bucs at an 89.2% rate so far and has allowed a 118 passer rating, but their secondary is getting healthier. It could be more of a mix with Sean Murphy-Bunting back, although he’s only played slot 20% of the time so far. 

The main target here is still Michael Pittman, who should face the most of Jamel Dean. Pittman is 10th in yards despite being just 17th in targets and fifth in routes. Dean missed some time but has only allowed a 43.2% catch rate and 62.9 passer rating. If they elect to move him to Hilton because Dean has 4.3-second 40-yard dash speed, that would be a big boost for Pittman. 

TE – The past couple of weeks would point toward Jack Doyle starting to take the lead in tight end targets with 10 compared to just three for Mo Alie-Cox, although I’m not sure that should mean a whole lot. The Bucs have allowed the fourth-most receptions to tight ends so I guess if you wanted to get gross and punt, you can make the case for Doyle. Still, It’s a very thin play and not one I’m going to actively chase. Indy is still just 22nd in pass attempts per game so his 9.3% target share is less appealing. 

D/ST – This is an easy pass for me despite their strong game in Buffalo last week. The largest weakness is the passing game and that’s the last thing you want when facing Brady and that passing game. They are ninth in DVOA but the 18.4% pressure rate is not ideal even with 23 sacks on the season. 

Cash – Pittman, Taylor (prefer in GPP at this point)

GPP – Pascal, Doyle in MME

Eagles at Giants, O/U of 45 (Eagles -4)

Eagles

QB – Even as they’ve shifted gears to run more, Jalen Hurts is still first in fantasy points per dropback and sixth in points per game. He leads the position in carries, red zone carries, rushing touchdowns, and second in rush yards. That’s more than making up for the fact that he’s 18th in passing yards, 20th in attempts, and just 19th in passing touchdowns. The Giants are 11th in DVOA against the pass but that’s not even much of a concern with hurts because his passing production is almost secondary at this point. He’s always in play when he’s under $8,000 on DraftKings. 

RB – This could be my favorite value play of the position because Miles Sanders came back from IR and handled 16 rushing attempts. Now, you’re not going to love the fact he has very little passing work last week but he does have a 10% target share. That’s passable and his price is just too low. New York is 30th in DVOA against the run, 19th in yards per carry allowed, and seventh-worst rushing yards allowed against running backs. In the last three weeks, no team has had more rush attempts per game than Philly at a massive 42.7 attempts. Sure, Hurts is going to take about 8-10 of those but that’s a lot of meat on the bone for a $5,100 running back. 

WR – With how little the Eagles are passing, Devonta Smith will continue to be the only receiver that is viable for DFS purposes. He is sixth in air yards, 19th in yards, fifth in unrealized air yards, seventh in deep targets, and 14th in snaps. Last season, James Bradberry would have concerned me but he’s fallen off a cliff this year, allowing a 120.6 passer rating, 2.03 fantasy points per target, and 12.3 yards per reception. Smith is a little pricey but does have explosive upside in this game and would check in as a strong GPP candidate if he’s sub-5%. 

TE – He might be the clear number two in the passing game but Dallas Goedert is still just fine at his price. Since Week 7 when Zach Ertz was traded, Goedert has a 25.9% target share to go with just one red-zone target. That has kind of been the story with Goedert so far as he hasn’t scored more than 13.2 DK points. It has to be noted how little Philly is throwing, but I also think it’s a mistake to say there just isn’t upside. It hasn’t happened yet but being such an integral cog in the passing game means it will come at some point. I do prefer Gronk for less money because Tampa gives him a better chance for production, but Goedert could be sneaky in GPP. 

D/ST – If you’re in the mid-range, Philly is definitely appealing. The Giants have allowed 21 sacks and despite sitting 18th in total DVOA, they still have potential. The turnovers and sacks are mediocre but the Giants are going to help those ratios along. That offense is not to be trusted. 

Cash – Sanders, Hurts, D/ST 

GPP – Smith, Goedert

Giants 

QB – For a while at the start of the year, Daniel Jones actually looked like maybe he was turning a corner but alas. That is not remotely the case as he now sits 21st in yards, 21st in red zone attempts, 25th in deep attempts, and 23rd in fantasy points per drop back. His red-zone completion and deep-ball completion rates are both 30th in football to go along with just nine passing touchdowns. With Philly sitting 18th in DVOA against the pass and 14th in yards allowed per carry, it may appear that Jones is in play. I’m not falling for that. 

RB – Saquon Barkley only played 62% of the snaps on Monday night and handled 12 touches, six of which were receptions. We should expect more snaps and touches here and despite it being a disappointing season for Barkley, this is a good spot. Philly is just 21st in DVOA against the run and is bottom five rushing yards allowed. The added bonus for Saquon is Philly has also allowed the second-most receptions, one of from being bottom in the league. We just don’t get Saquon at this price tag very often and in the two games he was full go, he scored over 21 DraftKings points in both. Don’t lose sight of the upside he brings. 

WR – This receiving corps is rough without Sterling Shepard and Kadarius Toney. Those players have been in the slot a lot which means that Kenny Golladay should draw Darius Slay in coverage. Golladay only has a 14.4% target share and Slay has allowed just a 57.4% completion rate and 1.40 fantasy points per target. That’s pretty easy to shy away from but Darius Slayton has some appeal. Well, as much as a receiver can have with Jones throwing him the ball. Slayton should see more targets and Steven Nelson has not played well on the outside, allowing 12.9 yards per reception and a 125.9 passer rating. It would still be only in MME formats. 

TE – Evan Engram is just 21st in points per game through his eight games and that’s tough to get excited about. He has some metrics that are appealing at the ninth-highest slot snaps but he’s 35th in yards per route, 19th in receptions, and has just four red-zone targets. This is a crowded offense and the price just doesn’t do him any favors as they break in a new offensive coordinator. I can see a bit more appeal with the team missing their slot receivers but I’m not in love. 

D/ST – The New York defense is 31st in pressure rate on the season and 17th in total DVOA but I’m not super interested. I can play Houston for a little bit cheaper even though Hurts has been pressured 25% of the time. They are 24th in points allowed and I’ll likely pass here. 

Cash – Saquon 

GPP – Engram, Slayton

Panthers at Dolphins, O/U of 41.5 (Panthers -2)

Panthers

QB – Cam Newton wasn’t exactly Earth-shattering in his return to the field with under 190 passing yards and under 50 rushing yards, but three touchdowns go a long way. I’d be cautious with him but the salary only moved $500 and that leaves him in play for me without a doubt. Miami is only 21st in DVOA against the pass and they have given up the most passing yards in football. Even with Cam’s flaws, we know the touchdown upside is massive and he’s under $6,000. It would be hard for him to totally crush you at this salary and 4-5x is not out of the question. 

RB – Christian McCaffrey is all the way back as he played 90% of the snaps and in the three games since his return, he leads the team in targets with a 26.1% share. He’s also racked up 37 carries and the past two games have seen him score 26 and 24 DraftKings points. The salary has not caught up to his nuclear upside and he’s only scored two touchdowns. Miami is 13th in DVOA against the run and is 17th in yards per carry allowed. The Dolphins only have allowed 56 receptions but we all know that doesn’t matter for CMC. He was typically near $10,000 last season she is far too cheap. 

WR – It looked like Robby Anderson got more involved last week with Cam under center and we could maybe get excited, but he also had an aDOT of 3.3 yards. That is far from exciting and I’m still not terribly interested since he’ll see more of Xavien Howard. He has been burned a little bit with a 15.0 YPR but at the same time, he’s only allowed a 55.8% completion rate. 

Instead, D.J. Moore could be the player to get exposure too as Cam and CMC are both looking very chalky. He’s eighth in air yards share, 11th in yards, and eighth in receptions. Moore is also third in unrealized air yards so there is plenty of production to tap into. Byron Jones has been worse, allowing a 65.6% completion rate and 1.66 fantasy points per target so Moore is still very interesting. 

TE – Don’t be swayed by Tommy Tremble being in the winning Milly lineup last week because he still only saw two targets. This is not a player worth targeting with a 5.2% target share on the season. 

D/ST – Carolina just seems perpetually underpriced. They have the second-highest pressure rate in football and are second in sacks, not to mention the 13 turnovers forced. Only five teams have allowed fewer points and they are able to slide in for just about any build. 

Cash – CMC, Cam, D/ST

GPP – Moore

Dolphins

QB – I’ve been a Tua Tagovailoa “supporter” this year to some extent but there’s no way I’m going there this week. Carolina is top five in DVOA against the pass, second in yards allowed per attempt, and the second-fewest passing yards in total. They have just eight interceptions but Tua is still prone to turnovers and he’s facing a strong defense by the metrics we value. That’s a pretty easy no, thank you here. 

RB – It worked out for Myles Gaskin last week but that was the best possible spot for him. The good news was that he handled 23 carries and three receptions, while was tied for the most touches in a game for him. What is interesting is even though there is a red number in the matchup for Gaskin, it’s not as intimidating as it seems. The Panthers have allowed the second-most rush yards for teams that have played 11 games, they are 16th in yards per carry, and are just 20th in DVOA against the run. He could be a very contrarian option this week because nobody is going to play him but the spot isn’t too shabby for a 20 touch running back. 

Update – The Dolphins did claim Lindsay, ex-Texan. I doubt that he has much of a role this week though as he was claimed on Wednesday. 

WR – Jaylen Waddle continues to be the receiver to target and the only one at that from the Miami side of things. He’s in the slot 48.5% of the time and that is helpful in this spot. He’ll avoid Donte Jackson and Stephon Gilmore in those snaps and face more of A.J. Bouye, who has allowed a catch rate above 65%. Waddle has the fifth-most receptions on the season and he has run the most routes among receivers. Granted, he’s 62nd in yards per route but receptions count too. He’s still under $6,000 and he’s in play, even if it’s just in GPP. 

TE – Mike Gesicki came back to life last week to some extent with a 5/50 line after a goose egg the previous week on seven targets. He also has the most air yards among tight ends, the third-most deep targets, and the fifth-most receptions and yards. Carolina has been strong against the position but Gesicki still has a 21.9% target rate on the season. He’s a major part of the Miami passing attack and he’s on the board, even if he’s not one of my priority plays. 

D/ST – There are worse options on the board. Newton put up a big fantasy day and I’m interested in him, but he still passed for under 200 yards and didn’t look like anything incredible. Miami has forced 16 turnovers, has a pressure rate over 25%, and has 23 sacks. Considering the chalkiness of the Carolina offense, they could be a strong GPP play. 

Cash – Waddle is closest

GPP – Tua, Gaskin, D/ST

Titans at Patriots, O/U of 43.5 (Patriots -7)

Titans

QB – Speaking of quarterbacks that I will have zero interest in, Ryan Tannehill is about at the bottom of the list this week. New England is the second-ranked DVOA against the pass, sixth in yards per attempt allowed, and has 18 interceptions to 13 touchdowns allowed. Tannehill is 21st in fantasy points per drop back and while he is eighth in yards, he’s 19th in passer rating. Heading into New England is not the spot where you want to play a quarterback for an offense that is missing many key players. 

RB – The Titans have realized Adrian Peterson which seemingly clears the way not for D’Onta Foreman like we may have thought but Dontrell Hilliard. Tennessee trailed for a large portion of the game and Hilliard saw 62.9% of the snaps and a massive 10 targets and seven carries. That was likely in part due to the game script and the fact the rest of the passing game was a nightmare. However, it’s not that hard to see the same scenario play out here. With the pressure rate the Patriots can bring and the coverages they can throw at A.J. Brown, Hilliard could see a boatload of targets once again. The price is appealing as well but it honestly feels like we have a ton of backs that are not priced accurately. 

WR – The Titans are scraping the bottom of the barrel for receivers as they are down both Julio Jones and A.J. Brown this week. The savior may well be Dez Fitzpatrick, who played 79% of the snaps last week, saw six targets, and scored a touchdown. Dealing with J.C. Jackson at corner for New England isn’t the most exciting proposition since he’s only allowed a 55.3% completion rate and 1.40 fantasy points per target, but who else is Tennessee going to throw to? He’s $3,200 so he’s on the board, but I will avoid in cash unless he turns to complete chalk. 

TE – I’m going to say something that sounds awful, but I kind of “like” Anthony Firkser. He is just barely over the minimum and you have to expect Brown to be muted in this game. If that happens, Hilliard and Firkser could see a similar workload that they did last week. He saw seven targets which aren’t bad at near minimum, but he also just fell on a fumble in the end zone for a score. If Geoff Swaim makes it back this is not a situation worth considering. 

D/ST – 27 sacks catches your eye at $2,900 even though not much else does. Tennessee has faced 14 turnovers and one of the bigger pieces for their unit is linebacker Bud Dupree. He’s on IR so my interest takes a step back, especially since they are also missing two starting running backs.

Cash – Fitzpatrick if the field goes there

GPP – Firkser, Hillard 

Patriots 

QB – Mac Jones is not in play for me simply because when we spend down, we want the 20+ DraftKings points game and Jones has yet to show that upside aside from two games. I’d rather play Tyrod or Cam since they both have rushing ability and whatever you think of Jones (he’s accurate and looks like he’ll be an above-average player for a while), rushing ability is simply not there. He’s just 28th in points per drop back, he’s 12th in attempts, 18th in yards per attempt, 12th in yards…you get the picture. He’s solid but outside of the fantasy-relevant picture for the most part. 

RB – It looks like BeliTricks could be making a return in this backfield. The Patriots used the trio of Rhamondre Stevenson, Damien Harris, and Brandon Bolden at least 34% of the time but no more than 39%. Stevenson saw the least amount of snaps, but also had the most carries at 12 and added a target. Harris and 10 carries and a target while Bolden only had three touches. While Bolden may not be fantasy-relevant, he saps the value of the other two by being on the field. Tennessee is 18th in DVOA against the run but it’s hard to get too excited if we’re only getting 10-12 touches from a back. 

WR – I tend to focus on just Jakobi Meyers because he leads the Patriots in target share by a lot at 23.4% but Nelson Agholor should be mentioned as well in this spot since he has a 14.7-yard aDOT and the Titans secondary can be had. He should draw Kristian Fulton who has allowed a 15.3 YPR and 1.63 points per target. Meyers is in the slot for the eighth-highest rate in football and that leaves him facing Elijah Molden who’s letting up a 68.6% catch rate and a 122.3 passer rating. They may not need to throw a lot, so it might make more sense to play Agholor or even Kendrick Bourne and hope for the splash play. Bourne only has 47 targets on the year but is 22nd in yards per reception and Jackrabbit Jenkins has allowed 13.8 yards per reception and a 112.8 passer rating. 

TE – Hunter Henry is the TE7 which is more of an indictment on the position more than saying Henry is great. He’s 15th in yards, 16th in receptions, 18th in targets, and 32nd in target rate. So how is he so high? Touchdowns, because Henry has seven of them and that leads the position. That’s how easy it is to climb the ranks and he is fifth in red-zone targets. He’s pretty much always a touchdown or bust kind of player and Tennessee has allowed just three. hey haven’t played many good ones so I’m fine with Henry, but we know what we’re getting into. 

D/ST – Based on how Tennessee’s offense looked last week, New England should be a smash play but you’re paying a hefty price for it. The $1,600 difference between them and Houston is significant, although New England has 21 turnovers generated and 28 sacks. Tannehill is tied for the most sacks in football to this point and if the pressure is in his face all day on the road, mistakes are going to follow.

Cash – D/ST if you can afford it 

GPP – Stevenson, Harris, Agholor, Meyers, Bourne, Henry 

Steelers at Bengals, O/U of 44.5 (Bengals -3.5)

Steelers

QB – I will not be swayed by the 22 DraftKings points Ben Roethlisberger scored last Sunday night and he’s not going to find the end zone three times very often. He is 11th in red zone attempts, 20th in yards, 29th in yards per attempt, and 31st in fantasy points per drop back. Cincinnati has fallen to 19th in DVOA against the pass and 16th in yards per attempt allowed. Last week was the only time Big Ben has cleared 20 DraftKings points and his ceiling does not match players like Tyrod and Cam. 

RB – The last time these two teams tangled, Najee Harris caught approximately 3,592 passes (14 but who’s counting) and posed a massive 31.2 DraftKings points. It’s a little frightening to see Harris at 3.6 yards per carry, 55th in the league. Granted, efficiency doesn’t pay the bills for fantasy when he’s guaranteed a workload like few others but it’s always in the back of your mind. Los Angeles has about the worst run defense in football and Harris couldn’t even get to 4.0 yards per carry. Still, the passing work alleviates most of the concerns as Harris is first in routes run, fourth in target share, second in receptions, and sixth in receiving yards. Since he’s third in carries, he’s also still seventh in rushing yards and Cincy is 13th in yards per carry allowed, as well as dead last in receptions allowed. He may not be my highest priority, but he will be on the board this week at $8,200.

WR – When the Steelers have a quarterback that can make every throw with consistency, Diontae Johnson is going to be a household name. He’s an excellent route runner and any issues with drops vanished. Johnson is 10th in the league in receptions and fourth in target share, so Ben’s limitations are a lot less noticeable with Johnson. Facing Chidobe Awuzie is no walk in the park since he’s only allowing a 50.9% catch rate and 1.46 fantasy points per target. Johnson’s salary is still very acceptable and he’s in play every week for me. 

Chase Claypool is better than his stats reflect but Ben’s ability at this point is not a great mix to accentuate the strengths. Claypool is always a threat to break one big play or get a rushing attempt near the goal line, but consistency is never going to be the name of the game here. He’s facing Eli Apple for a chunk of his snaps and Apple is at 1.65 points per target allowed with a 12.7 YPR, so there is potential. Trusting Ben to hit him deep is tough. We could see James Washington take more snaps with Ray-Ray McCloud out with Covid, but that’s not a route I’m interested in. 

TE – The Muth is all the way Luth and Pat Freiermuth has played extremely well lately. With Big Ben at quarterback and JuJu missing, the Muth has not dipped below 11.1 DK points and we shouldn’t expect this one to be different. He’s actually taken some targets away from Najee since Week 6 as he has 36 for an 18.6% target share to 11.9% for Harris. Freiermuth is second on the team in targets since then and Eric Ebron injured his knee and will be out for a while. This is 100% Freiermuth’s job and the price is appealing in a major way. If Gronk is chalky, the pivot is right here. 

D/ST – I have moderate interest if T.J. Watt is back. If he’s not, we saw Sunday night that Pittsburgh had a tougher time generating a pass rush. It helps that safety Minkah Fitzpatrick is back (heavens was he missed) and on the year, Pittsburgh has 28 sacks and a pressure rate over 25%. They got embarrassed by the Bengals in the first game, this defense will be motivated. They just need their guys to be on the field to make it interesting. 

Update – Watt is playing but Joe Haden is questionable 

Cash – Harris, Johnson, Freiermuth

GPP – D/ST, Claypool 

Bengals 

QB – It’s been a rough two weeks for Joe Burrow before and after the bye week which has dropped the salary. Even with returning members of the defense, Pittsburgh is not the formidable unit they have been. They are 26th in DVOA against the pass and 22nd in yards per attempt allowed. For Burrow, he is ninth in passing yards and second in yards per attempt but the volume remains somewhat in question. He was not forced to throw a lot last week at 29 attempts and that could be the same thing this week. To get the ceiling for Burrow, he either needs efficiency with touchdowns or Pittsburgh needs to score points. 

RB – Oh look, another running back play that I love. Joe Mixon scored 27 DraftKings points last week and that makes four of the last five games that he’s been over 25. For some reason, the salary dropped by $100 for a player that is fourth in carries, fourth in rush yards, and fourth in total touchdowns. The Steelers have historically been a poor matchup but that is not the case this year as they are 16th in DVOA against the run, have allowed the eighth-most rushing yards from teams that have played 10 games, and are tied for dead last in yards per carry. With the workload Mixon is handling, he should rip up Pittsburgh even if the defense gets healthier. Their middle linebacker play is a major weakness right now. 

WR – Fitzpatrick is back for Pittsburgh but if Haden is out, there is serious upside for this receiving group. Ja’Marr Chase has been quiet lately but he is still second in air yards share, sixth in yards, sixth in yards per route run, and third in touchdowns. That would be an elite mix if the Steelers lack one of their best corners. We all saw that secondary get rocked by the Chargers on Sunday night. 

Tee Higgins finally did not score his standard 12-14 DraftKings points last week, burning a good chunk of the field. It’s weird because he’s always highly rostered but he’s the WR47 on the season. That’s not everything but still, it’s just weird to see everyone always go there. He’s second on the Bengals in target share although it’s become a close race between these two and Tyler Boyd. The latter has had a much more volatile floor but running out of the slot is a big help against the Steelers. The inside linebackers are awful at coverage and can be exploited in a big way. Pending Haden’s status, I’d have them Chase, Boyd, Higgins but they’re very close. If Haden is out, Chase is the clear number one. 

TE – C.J. Uzomah is not a player to chase despite his oddball ceiling games with just 31 targets through 10 games. 

D/ST – Cincy is fine but not my absolute favorite. They are 15th in total DVOA, have 25 sacks, a pressure rate of over 26%, but just 11 turnovers forced. Big Ben has been sacked 21 times but the pressure rate is just 19.9% because he gets rid of the ball so quickly. 

Cash – Mixon

GPP – Burrow, Chase, Boyd, Higgins 

Falcons at Jaguars, O/U of 45.5 (Falcons -2)

Falcons

QB – The matchup is way more than appealing as Jacksonville sits 31st in DVOA against the pass and 29th in yards allowed per attempt. Trusting which version of Matt Ryan you get is the largest question. He’s 11th in attempts and red zone attempts to go with just 15th in yards, but he’s been totally boom or bust this season. Of his 10 starts, five have gone over 22 points but four have been below 10 points. There is very little middle ground. What I will say is Cam is very popular, which leaves Ryan as an interesting GPP pivot that has shown the upside is there at this salary. 

RB – If Cordarrelle Patterson is not back for this game, I’ll have less than zero interest in the mix of Mike Davis, Wayne Gallman, and Quadree Ollison. Davis and Ollison split the snaps close to 50/50 and even though Ollison had an advantage in touches, it’s not enough to move the needle given what this slate offers at the running back position. The Jaguars are a surprising fifth in DVOA against the run and that’s enough for lesser talents like Ollison. Now, if Patterson gets back it’s a different situation with a high receiving workload with a 15.8% target share. 

WR – It’s been tough to nail down the receivers for Atlanta since Calvin Ridley has been away from the team. Russell Gage has the lead in target share at 16.5% but that’s nothing special. He’s had two games with zero fantasy points and two over nine points, so the upside is pretty tough to see. He’s been in the slot quite a bit at 46.6% but the price doesn’t do him any favors. Olamide Zaccheaus had one game with two touchdowns and almost nothing else even against suspect corners like Nevin Lawson and Tyson Campbell it’s not that appealing. Jacksonville’s pass defense does suffer without their best corner in Shaquill Griffin but I may wind up playing the next person the most. 

TE – The position as a whole is weaker than normal this week so Kyle Pitts is the second-most expensive player for tight ends. I do understand why but I’m not sure I have the motivation to pay it. Last week was an understandable flop against the Patriots and since Ridley has left, Pitts leads the team in targets with 25 through four games for a 21.7% share. He’s still seventh in receptions, third in yards, fifth in unrealized air yards, third in deep targets, and eighth in fantasy points per game despite just a single touchdown. If you’re spending up, he’s more than in play and the metrics just are so good for him and now the Jags are missing their best corner. 

D/ST – The Falcons are just utterly incapable of getting to the quarterback with the fewest sacks in football and one of the lowest pressure rates. They also only have nine turnovers so, despite the strong matchup, those splash play metrics and ranking 30th in total DVOA mean I’m looking elsewhere. 

Cash – Pitts

GPP – Patterson, Gage, Ryan

Jaguars 

QB -Trevor Lawrence is kind of in that same boat as Mac Jones in that he just hasn’t flashed enough of a ceiling to feel super confident here. Despite being ninth in attempts, he’s just 23rd in yards and 21st in air yards, which aren’t a good mix. Lawrence (not all his fault) sits 32nd in fantasy points per dropback and has only thrown for eight touchdowns. Going against the 30th ranked DVOA defense against the pass is appealing but Lawrence is likely not for me given the lack of weapons and his track record thus far. 

RB – For the first time in a few weeks, I’m interested in James Robinson. Finding room in the running back rotation could be a challenge this week but the spot is undeniable. Atlanta is 24th in DVOA against the run and J-Rob is 12th in rushing yards despite being just 22nd in carries. The Falcons are only 14th in yards per carry but have also given up 11 total touchdowns and even in lopsided game scripts the past two weeks, Robinson has had at least 14 touches. Given this game should remain a little closer, we could get closer to the 18-20 touch threshold and that’s a strong value at just $6,200 on DraftKings. 

WR – I want to be clear that I do not trust Laviska Shenault in cash and won’t play him there unless the field demands I have to. However, the Jaguars have now lost Jamal Agnew from their receiver corps. They are down to Shenault and Marvin Jones unless they play Tavon Austin and Laquon Treadwell, which I wouldn’t put past this coaching staff. Jacksonville is claiming Shenault will see more touches and possibly even some carries out of the backfield, and he gets the better matchup. 

Jones is going to see a good amount of A.J. Terrell on the outside and he’s sixth in passer rating allowed, fantasy points per target, and catch rate. That’s not the player I want to attack with Jones and Shenault has been playing 45% in the slot. The Falcons have had multiple slot corners so far and if Shenualt gets 10-12 touches, he could be a bargain. This is just not a very good offense overall, so we’ll see what projections bring us. 

TE – There is a part of me that just wants to go right back to Dan Arnold after he didn’t record a reception last week. It was so out of line with what he’s done in Jacksonville and he’d racked up 38 targets in the five games before that. That’s major volume and he had double-digit scores in four of those five games. With Agnew done now as well, the options are getting thin for the Jaguars and there’s not much of a reason to think that last week wasn’t just a speed bump. 

D/ST – Much like Atlanta, the matchup is great but Jacksonville seems to not be up to the task of generating the fantasy plays we need. They have just five turnovers forced and 18 sacks, to go along with ranking 29th in total DVOA. 

Cash – Robinson

GPP – Arnold, Shenault, Lawrence 

Chargers at Broncos, O/U of 48 (Chargers -2.5)

Chargers

QB – Denver should be able to muster up more resistance than Justin Herbert faced last week but this kid can flat out play. He’s fifth in yards, third in attempts, sixth in red zone attempts, sixth in air yards, and fourth in touchdowns on the season. Denver is only 17th in DVOA against the pass and 13th in yards per attempt, so they are not the scariest defense on the slate. Where the Broncos have excelled is they’ve only allowed 13 touchdown passes, tied for the third-fewest in football. Herbert and this offense have the volume and the talent to make for a fine GPP target this week. 

RB – I’m not sure I’d ever call for a full fade of Austin Ekeler, but I do feel a little less sure of him at $8,400. He is averaging almost 100 scrimmage yards per game and is third in receptions, so the floor is comforting. Denver is tied for the third-fewest receptions allowed to backs but that is a lesser concern with players of Ekeler’s skill level. They are also 28th in DVOA against the run and 22nd in yards per carry allowed. What is propping them up a little bit is they’ve only given up nine total touchdowns. With Ekeler averaging about 17 touches per game and sitting second in red-zone touches, there’s nothing wrong with him in a vacuum. It’s more slight sticker shock after he scored four times on an island game. 

WR – My initial reaction was just to play Keenan Allen ahead of Mike Williams in part because Allen has the better matchup and the higher target share. He’s in the slot 52% of the time and is third in receptions, seventh in yards, third in targets, and 10th in target share. That’s a great mix for safety and upside and the matchup against Kyle Fuller while on the outside. Fuller has given up a 105.9 passer rating and 1.77 fantasy points per target. 

Having said that, Williams is at an outstanding salary to chase his upside because $5,700 on DraftKings is crazy. Williams is eighth in touchdowns and 16th in points per game and we’ve seen that he possesses a crazy ceiling. It’s feast or famine with five games under 10 points and five over 20. Rookie Patrick Surtain has played well with just a 48.3% catch rate allowed and 1.36 fantasy points per target but he’s been targeted 58 times. Still, Williams could break the slate at this price. 

TE – Over the past three weeks, the targets between Jared Cook and Donald Parham have been far more equal, just like the snaps. Cook has 12 targets and Parham has 10 and the latter has two red-zone targets to one for Cook. The salaries are close and neither is a vital part of the offense but if you’re punting, Parham has the athletic traits to be interesting if he’s getting 4-5 targets. 

D/ST – LA is averaging under four fantasy points, has 11 turnovers and 20 sacks, and is somehow the third-most-expensive unit on the slate. That doesn’t make a ton of sense to me even though Denver has given up 31 sacks in total. If they are cheaper, I’d be more interested. 

Cash – Ekeler, Allen

GPP – Williams, Herbert, Parham 

Broncos 

QB – It’s always tough to get behind Teddy Bridgewater, especially with the amount of cheap QB’s with ceiling this week. He does sit eighth in red zone attempts but he’s only 15th in passing touchdowns with 14, not to mention 22nd in fantasy points per drop back. Teddy B is third in true completion rate but it’s not translating to enough fantasy goodness. The salary is fine but the Chargers are ninth against the pass in DVOA and 12th in yards allowed per attempt. It’s not the direction I’m going this week. 

RB – If you were to play any (and I am not with Sanders sitting cheaper Han both), Melvin Gordon ahead of Javonte Williams has to still be the play. They are tied in targets at 29 each and MG3 has the lead in carries and red zone carries. It doesn’t matter if Williams has been more efficient or has evaded more tackles. The Broncos are set in their ways and that’s that. It is a strong matchup that we’ve attacked all year with LA sitting 32nd in DVOA against the run, they are 29th in yards per carry, and 32nd in rushing yards allowed. Still, Sanders is the more appealing target and Gordon is best left for MME formats. 

WR – I don’t feel like any of Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, or Tim Patrick are going to be needed this week. The path to success for them could lie in Asante Samuel Jr. being out and he would have seen a lot of Patrick. He is fourth in target share on the team so you need a long play or touchdown but Samuel is a loss. 

Sutton is fifth in air yards and sixth in unrealized air yards so there’s always big play ability, but the matchup against Michael Davis statistically is difficult. He’s only given up a 12.3 YPR and a 61.3% catch rate. That’s far from invincible, but it’s not a glaring weakness. Jeudy is still running from the slot at one of the higher rates in the league and leads in target share while being 14th in target rate. Chris Harris has played a lot of slot corner but has allowed a 118.6 passer rating. 

TE – Noah Fant is always just a guy for me in this offense and his salary isn’t doing him any favors. I’d much rather play Gronk or The Muth even though Fant is eighth in receptions. In Fant’s defense, he’s ninth in routes, third in red-zone targets and seventh in target share. Those are all strong metrics but it’s only amounted to 11th in points per game. Bridgewater is not the type that will generally support multiple receivers, a tight end, and running backs that can produce. It’s not the good of an offense so Fant is fine, but may not have any tangible ceiling based on this season. 

D/ST – I doubt I tangle with the Chargers offense, but Denver does a great job limiting points with the third-fewest allowed. They are also 26th in DVOA with only 11 turnovers forced themselves. The deal-breaker could be Herbert has only been pressured 18.5% of the time and sacked 18 times, 25th in the league. 

Cash – None 

GPP – Jeudy, Patrick, Sutton, Gordon, Williams

Rams at Packers, O/U of 48 (Rams -2)

Rams

QB – Hopefully the bye week did Matthew Stafford some good because he was awful for two weeks directly before it. He totaled just two touchdowns against four picks and just looked off. On the season, he’s fourth in yards, second in air yards, third in yards per attempt, second behind only Brady in red zone attempts, third in touchdowns, and eighth in points per drop back. Green Bay has handled opposing passing games well so far (shockingly because they have been without their best two defensive players). They are fourth in yards allowed per attempt and 12th in DVOA but I believe Stafford and company will be fine here coming out of the bye. 

RB – Eventually we’ll hit some backs that I’m not a fan of (I think) but we’re not there yet. Darrell Henderson is very affordable and he’s 10 in rushing yards, 14th in carries, and 15th in points per game. When he’s been healthy, he’s been the man in this backfield and we shouldn’t expect that to change coming out of a bye week. Green Bay is sort of a mixed bag as far as the matchup. They are only ninth in rushing yards given up but they are 26th in DVOA against the run and 21st in yards per carry allowed. The Rams are only 22nd in attempts per game but with Henderson accounting for 67% of those attempts and 23 red zone carries, he shouldn’t be under $6,000. 

WR – You can certainly take shots at Odell Beckham or Van Jefferson in this game. OBJ should be much more in tune with the offense after the by week but just remember that Robert Woods only had a 21.5% target share in this offense. I’m hard-pressed to think OBJ walks into that right off the bat. Jefferson faces a corner in Eric Stokes that can match his speed as they both have 4.3-second 40-yard dashes. 

I’ll be focused on Cooper Kupp to the surprise of nobody and even when Stafford was struggling, Kupp really didn’t as he cleared 20 DraftKings points in both games. Running out of the slot leaves him on Chandon Sullivan and that’s not going to end well for Green Bay. Surely, they try to roll coverages toward Kupp but he’s first in receptions, yards, touchdowns, and points per game. Kupp has dipped below 20 Dk twice and been over 25 DK seven times. I’ll take my chances with that consistency. 

TE – How Tyler Higbee does this week likely hinges on what OBJ does. If he’s a bigger part of the offense, Higbee could be more on the back burner since we should expect Kupp to continue dominating. So far, Higbee leads the position in snap share and he’s fifth in routes, but he’s just 10th in receptions, 18th in yards, and 22nd in deep targets. He’s only scored three times but his red-zone work is off the charts with 16 targets inside the 20. That also leads the position and if he starts seeing some positive regression in that aspect, this salary could get hammered. 

D/ST – They are eighth in total DVOA but heading into Green Bay isn’t where I typically go for defenses, especially when they are the fourth-most expensive option. 

Cash – Kupp, Henderson

GPP – Stafford, Higbee, OBJ, Jefferson 

Packers 

QB – I was very much off Aaron Rodgers last week because he just hasn’t been great to the extent that we’re used to, not to mention his toe injury. That did keep him off the practice field this week but I’m not really concerned about this. The timing for Rodgers has been built over the seasons and suddenly he’s sixth in points per drop back. Rodgers is also fifth in touchdowns and fifth in red-zone attempts, so the Rams sitting 10th in DVOA against the pass is not a major concern. 

RB – We’ll need to see who’s active for this one but the pricing is a joke. Aaron Jones is only $6,000 and A.J. Dillon is $5,900 after scoring 15.7 DraftKings points last week without a touchdown. The Rams are seventh in DVOA and only allow 4.0 yards per carry for fifth0best but the talent level of either back would demand a higher salary. Let’s see how the injury for Jones plays out during the week and go from there. He did manage some level of practice every day this week so I’m not sure we should expect Dillon to be the man this week. 

WR – The reason Kupp may not be super popular is that Davante Adams is $1,000 cheaper and is coming off a ceiling game of 33.5 DraftKings points. I’ll never tell you not to play him and I’ll be fascinated to see which receiver gets more traction. Jalen Ramsey might scare some here but Adams didn’t have many issues facing him in the playoffs last year as he went 9/66/1. Both teams move these players around so it won’t even be one on one either. 

Marquez Valdes-Scantling leads the league in aDOT at 19.1 yards and for that reason alone he’s a GPP play every week. He’ll line up on Darious Williams on some snaps (and could see a little bit of Ramsey) and Williams has only allowed a 9.0 YPR. It’s still a fine way to get exposure to this side of the game but don’t confuse it with a cash play. 

TE – Josiah Deguara caught a 25-yard touchdown on a broken play but saw one other target besides that to bring his total up to 11 this year. That’s very little to go on, and he only played 45.8% of the snaps on top of that to lead the position. 

D/ST – Green Bay’s defense might be better than it gets credited for but they are just 14th in total DVOA with just a 23% pressure rate. The Rams are coming out of a bye week with extra time to prepare so this isn’t a pick for me. 

Cash – Adams, Rodgers, TBD on the backs

GPP – MVS

Vikings at 49ers, O/U of 49.5 (49ers -3)

Vikings

QB – Kirk Cousins is a different real-life quarterback than fantasy because he’s actually been very productive in fantasy and his salary never really seems to go anywhere. He’s fifth in attempts, seventh in yards, fifth in air yards and fifth in passing touchdowns. That’s pretty solid considering he’s thrown all of two interceptions. San Francisco is just 22nd in DVOA against the pass but they’ve only given up 13 touchdowns on the season. Cousins can change that this week and the vast majority of the field just don’t play him. 

RB – Much like last week, Dalvin Cook is more than fine as he’s fifth in rush yards, seventh in evaded tackles, and fifth in carries. I don’t love the fact that he’s 23rd in targets and 33rd in receptions because that’s just not using his skill set all that well, but there’s not much to do about that at this point of the year. It does help that he’s in the top 10 in red-zone touches but the 49ers are third in DVOA against the run. They have given up the sixth-fewest rushing yards to backs and are 18th in yards per carry allowed, not terrible but not great. If Cook had a safer receiving floor, I’d feel better. In his price range, Harris, Ekeler, and even Mixon might be slightly safer in better spots. 

WR – It’s amazing what happens when you start feeding Justin Jefferson. He’s seen 21 targets the past two weeks and has smashed in both of them with 25 and 40 DraftKings points. This was after he saw nine targets in a two-game span and Minnesota has to get the message now. His salary is up there but it should be as he’s fourth in yards, sixth in receptions, seventh in yards per route, third in deep targets, and fifth in points per game. Matching with Josh Norman is no longer a concern as he’s let up a 67.7% catch rate and 115.4 passer rating across 31 targets. 

I’m likely not paying $6,700 for Adam Thielen so that means he’s almost a lock to hit 3x. He scored so he paid the bills last week and there is a chance he does so again since he’s 12th in red-zone targets and third in touchdowns. His target rate is only 47th so it’s hard to see a ceiling past scoring this week and Emmanuel Moseley has been pretty strong so far. He’s let up a 52.5% catch rate and 1.08 fantasy points per target, which is 13th. That’s not ideal but Thielen has a path to success. 

TE – Without running well on the touchdown luck, Ty Conklin went back to scoring just a handful of points and he’s going to be that every week. He’s third in the pecking order for targets and Cook is getting plenty of work. Conklin is somehow 10th in receptions and 12th in yards (again…tight end is horrid) but he’s only 15th in points per game. The 49ers have allowed the second-fewest receptions, the fewest amount of yards, and four scores. I’d prefer to find the money to come up over $4,000 for someone else. 

D/ST – Minnesota is 27th in DVOA against the run and that’s not what we want facing the 49ers. To their credit, they are third in pressure rate on the year and are tied for the lead in sacks. They’re also cheap enough to consider just from that and they have generated 12 turnovers, but they’ll need to get home a bunch to pay off. 

Cash – Cousins, Jefferson 

GPP – Cook, Thielen, Conklin 

49ers 

QB – This is a spot where we could actually see some style of a ceiling from Jimmy Garoppolo. If Minnesota can score points, it will demand Jimmy G to do more and he has flashed it every now and again. He’s only 24th in yards but he’s also fourth in yards per attempt and 14th in fantasy points per drop back. Minnesota can get bit by the deep ball as they are 23rd in yards allowed per attempt which betrays ranking eighth in DVOA against the pass. I could get on board in MME formats but that would be the extent of it. If San Francisco controls the game, his high end is likely 16 DK or so. 

RB – As of now, Elijah Michell looks unsure if he’s going to play this week and that means I would go right back to Jeff Wilson if he was out. Yes, the box score was paltry but it looks a lot better if the 49ers had a QB capable of throwing a simple five-yard pass at the goal line. Seriously, Trey Lance can do that. Anyway, Wilson handled the snaps when the game was in question and accounted for 20 touches. I’ll play those odds at $5,100 every single week, and he’s only $5,300. Minnesota is 27th in DVOA against the run and is tied for the worst yards per carry in football. We’ll circle back when we have clarity about who’s playing. 

WR – Are we seeing the resurrection of Brandon Aiyuk? He’s hit double-digits in three of the past four games across 26 targets, a stark contrast to the rest of his season. In that time, he actually leads the team in targets while Deebo Samuel is at 25 and the next player is at 19 (through three games to four, to be fair). The point is Aiyuk has seen the most snaps at 91% and we can actually trust him at this point, and he faces Bashaud Breeland. He’s gotten mashed for a 15.2 YPR and 108.4 passer rating. 

That’s not to say that Samuel is a poor play either, as he is in the top 10 in yards, yards run per route, yards per reception, target rate, touchdowns, and points per game. Patrick Peterson has been fine statistically but the 1.50 fantasy points per target aren’t scary, especially for Samuel. He got it done rushing last week with eight attempts and that’s always a bonus with him, more so if the 49ers are short on backs again this week. 

TE – This week’s game should be more competitive so the ceiling for George Kittle should be higher than last week. He took all four targets and turned them into 13.4 DraftKings points and leads the position in target share while being third in yards per route. Even with just seven games played, he’s seventh in deep targets and fifth in points per game. Minnesota looks like they’ve played tight ends well with just one touchdown allowed but the only good tight end they’ve played is Mark Andrews. hat doesn’t dissuade us from playing Kittle. 

D/ST – San Fran is in the bottom 10 in pressure rate to this point but they are top 12 in total DVOA. Only generating nine turnovers doesn’t help and Jimmy G has only been sacked 16 times. 

Cash -Samuel, Aiyuk, Kittle

GPP – Jimmy G, TBD on backs

Cash Core Four

Christian McCaffrey, Michael Pittman, Chris Godwin, Miles Sanders

GPP Core Four

Cooper Kupp, Miles Sanders, Brandin Cooks/Tyrod Taylor mini-stack

Stacks

Bucs/Colts – Brady, Godwin, Gronk, Evans – Run Backs – Pittman, Doyle, Taylor

Vikings/49ers – Cousins, Jefferson, Cook, Thielen – Run Backs – Deebo, Aiyuk, Kittle

Chargers/Broncos – Herbert, Williams, Allen, Ekeler, Parham – Run Backs – Gordon, Sutton, Williams, Patrick, Jeudy

Rams/Packers – Kupp, Henderson, Jefferson, Stafford – Run Backs – Adams, Rodgers, Dillon if Jones is inactive

Texans/Jets – Taylor, Cooks, Collins, Burkhead, Johnson – Run Backs – Moore, Crowder

Mini-Stacks – Kyle Pitts/James Robinson, D.J. Moore/Jaylen Waddle, Devonta Smith/Darius Slayton, Pat Freiermuth/Joe Mixon

Thank you for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown Week 12 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport.

NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown Thanksgiving Edition

The NFL is on a bit of a short week with three games featured for the Thanksgiving Day slate. The quality of the games is a bit questionable, and injuries are going to play a major part in this slate. Let’s get into all three games in the NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown Thanksgiving Edition and find the paths to green!

Bears at Lions, O/U of 41.5 (Bears -3.5)

Bears 

QB – I’m not exactly sure what we did to deserve this game on Thanksgiving, but there are some important players in the game. One of the situations that could provide some value is the quarterback spot for Chicago since it appears it will be Andy Dalton. Justin Fields is expected to miss this game with a rib injury and Dalton has had a pretty limited track record in the offense on the season. He did throw two touchdowns in relief this past week despite only completing 11 of 23 passes but has the advantage of knowing he’s starting this game. Detroit allows a 65% completion rate and is 31st in yards allowed per attempt, which also helps Dalton a bit. The reason their stats look decent in total is that they have faced the least amount of attempts in the NFL. Don’t mistake, this is a very poor passing defense. The biggest question is playing Dalton and if he can score enough to be worth the savings. It’s an opportunity cost to not play a different quarterback and you’ll have to make up the points difference somewhere else. 

RB – Chicago needs to realize that David Montgomery needs to get more touches than the 15 he did in this past game. They were in a close game the whole time on Sunday but Monty only carried the ball 14 times. Detroit has a very exploitable run defense and is in the bottom half of the league in yards per carry allowed at 22nd. Only three teams have allowed more rushing yards on the season to backs on top of that. Montgomery may carry a ton of popularity on this slate, which would make sense. He could be the cheapest back on DraftKings that you can feel comfortable with and I’ll be happy to ride the chalk wave here. If he doesn’t get 20 touches, the Bears should leave the coaching staff in Detroit. 

WR – Is it Darnell Mooney SZN? Perhaps, although 5/121/1 on 16 targets might be one of the more inefficient 26 DraftKings point games we’ve seen. Efficiency isn’t everything and all that matters is the points scored, but it’s going to be hard to ignore that amount of targets against a sub-par secondary at the salary. If Allen Robinson remains out, Mooney is going to be popular as well and it’s justifiable. He has some serious big-play ability and Detroit is in the bottom-five in yards per attempt allowed. 

That speaks to how fast they can get burned by Mooney and potentially Marquise Goodwin. Assuming Robinson is out for now, Goodwin played 71.2% of the snaps and saw eight targets himself. With the state of the Lions secondary, eight targets are plenty and he’s one of the few punt plays on this slate that would make sense. Corners Bobby Price and Amani Oruwariye are not corners to fear.

TE – Cole Kmet offers some savings but I’m not sure that matters if he’s got virtually no chance at scoring 10+ DraftKings points. If you’re a tight end, you have to either score touchdowns or catch a lot of passes and Kmet does neither. He’s yet to score this season and while the 17.4% target share looks appealing, Chicago is dead last in pass attempts per game. A 17% share of 27.1 attempts is nothing special and that’s exactly what Kmet is at this point. Nothing special and he could drag your lineup down. 

D/ST – The Bears are on the shortlist here to be sure, as they have 31 sacks on the season and 10 turnovers forced. Detroit has allowed a bottom 10 amount of sacks this season and the Bears are doing it without blitzing very much at around 14%. They have lost pass rusher Khalil Mack but there are very few skill positions on Detroit that would scare anyone. It’s also the lowest total on the board which just adds to the appeal, not to mention the fact they are very affordable. 

Targets – Montgomery, Mooney, D/ST, Dalton, Goodwin

Lions 

QB – This is not where we’re going to look for our quarterback. Jared Goff may not play again and Tim Boyle started last game. He had 23 attempts for 77 yards, two interceptions, and 1.1 DraftKings points. Chicago is 19th in yards per attempt per allowed so they’re not a great defense against the pass but I can’t stomach this level of quarterback play on such a short slate. It can kill any lineup and isn’t worth the tradeoff in salary. 

Update – Goff is trending towards playing but my thoughts on the position have not changed at all. 

RB – D’Andre Swift set his personal best in rushing yards again last week with 136 and it’s been comforting to see him producing fantasy-relevant scores without a ton of work in the passing game. The surprising part was his workload because Cleveland never ran away with the game last week. Jamaal Williams came back into the lineup for seven carries which isn’t the worst-case scenario but it doesn’t help either. Chicago is 15th in yards allowed per attempt but their injuries are piling up. They just allowed 132 rushing yards to the Ravens and backup quarterback Tyler Huntley, so they aren’t shutting anyone down at the moment. They are also up to the seventh-most rushing yards allowed and have given up eight total scores. The matchup isn’t that bad and the game should stay relatively close, so Swift should have 20 touches again. He does still lead the league in targets among running backs and is a “safe” investment. 

WR – If you’re playing one, Amon-Ra St. Brown makes for an intriguing target from the Lions receivers. He’s playing over 70% of his snaps in the slot and the Bears lost slot corner, Duke Shelley, to injury. It appears that Xavier Crawford will draw that duty and he only has a 24% snap share on the season. Since Week 4 when Amon-Ra started playing more consistently, he’s third on the team in targets behind Swift and Hockenson with a 20.4% share. Kalif Raymond should draw the tougher assignment in Jaylon Johnson, who has allowed just a 56.3% catch rate and 1.49 fantasy points per target. Detroit is not a passing offense that we want multiple pieces from so don’t go crazy. 

TE – T.J. Hockenson might be a better target than most realize at first glance. The good news is over the past five weeks, he has totaled 40 targets and that includes the game where he put up a goose egg on a meager one target. In that span, he has a 26.8% target rate and is tied for the team lead in red-zone targets with three. What it comes down to is the decision between Hockenson and the Cowboys option. They are basically the same price and we may need to know more about the Cowboys situation before the decision gets made. The targets are likely to favor Hockenson but the efficiency and quarterback play will favor Dallas. 

D/ST – With all the issues the Bears have on offense, the Lions could be mildly interesting. They’ve forced five turnovers in the past two weeks but only one sack, and that is an issue. Chicago has allowed the most sacks on the season and even though some of that is related to the play of Fields, they are the most appealing punt on the board. In a perfect world, I’ll play the Bears but if I need that $600, the Lions fit. 

Targets – Swift, Hockenson, St. Brown, D/ST 

Raiders at Cowboys, O/U of 51 (Cowboys -7)

Raiders 

QB – Derek Carr is kind of hard to get a grip on. On the one hand, he’s cheap and it’s easier to see potential in him than it is for Dalton. The fantasy points per dropback are below average at 0.46 but Carr is making up for it in volume with the fifth-most attempts on the season. He’s also fourth in yards which you don’t exactly think of when you think about Carr. He’s sporting the sixth-most red-zone attempts so far but that’s not translating into a ton of touchdowns with 15. Dallas is a very volatile defense as they’ve allowed the 11th most yards but are also second in interceptions with 15. Carr is interesting as a cheap option in a negative game script, but I’m not in love here either. 

RB – I actually kind of like Josh Jacobs here, especially if Montgomery winds up as chalky. Typically, Jacobs is thought of as totally depending on game script and that has been extremely true in the past. However, he’s been much more involved in the passing game over the past month with 19 targets in the past four games. That is wildly encouraging from a floor perspective and a 13.7% target share. It would appear that Dallas is strong against the backs but they have faced the fifth-fewest rushing attempts in football. They rank 18th in yards per carry allowed and are in the bottom half of receptions allowed as well. The Raiders are +7 in this game but with Dallas missing weapons, it can stay close and Jacobs can see 15+ touches. The fact that Jacobs is more involved has left Kenyan Drake as more of an afterthought as he’s hovering around eight touches per game in that span. The Raiders would need to be trailing big to get Drake more involved. 

WR – We can safely cast aside Bryan Edwards after he led the receiver group in snaps and did not receive a single target. Instead, Hunter Renfrow continues to get the attention. He only saw four targets which are scary at this salary. He should face the better matchup against Jourdan Lewis in the slot as Renfrow is there 63.9% of the time. He is 15th in receptions on the season and Lewis has allowed 1.58 fantasy points per target with a 57.9% catch rate. On a tree game slate, the ceiling is highly questionable for him and I’m not looking to spend that salary in this way. 

TE – Dallas has had their share of issues containing tight ends with the ninth-most yards given up against the position so far. Darren Waller is the most expensive option on the slate but can easily post numbers that rival any receiver or running back. Considering the number of star players that could be out, Waller may wind up being a bargain. Among tight ends, Waller is second in air yards share, fourth in receptions and yards, third in unrealized air yards, ninth in yards per route, and first in deep targets. He may wind up being in the Core Four by the end of the article. Waller has one of the higher ceilings on the slate. 

D/ST – Even if the Cowboys are short players, I’m not sure this play makes sense. The key element is going to be left tackle Tyron Smith for Dallas. If he’s in, this won’t be much of a consideration but if he’s out, that is a difference maker. Vegas has a pressure rate of 24.5% and their 24 sacks are tied for the eighth-most in the league. 

Targets – Waller, Carr, Jacobs, D/ST 

Cowboys 

QB – Dak Prescott will not likely be a high priority for me not because of last week’s results (man was the Dallas offense awful) but for the situation he finds himself in. The Cowboys are will seemingly not have their two top receivers in this game and that’s going to hamper the ceiling for Prescott. We’ve seen earlier in the season when Dallas can control the game script, Prescott can be under 30 passing attempts. In that scenario, he’d need good touchdown luck and throw 2-3 at minimum. Vegas is a surprising fourth in passing yards allowed per attempt and they’ve allowed just the fifth-fewest yards. Dak is sixth in fantasy points per drop back so we know the efficiency is there but it’s not hard to see an average score in this spot. 

RB – This is a very interesting spot for Dallas because we could see both Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard be heavily involved. It looks like Dallas will be without both Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb on a short week. This isn’t to say that Dallas just crawls into a shell and never passes but Pollard could see more opportunity in both phases of the game in a run-heavy game plan. Vegas is 24th in yards allowed per carry and are in the bottom-eight in rushing yards allowed to running backs. They are over 1,400 scrimmage yards allowed with 12 scores and are 19th in receptions allowed. Dallas is tied for seventh in rush attempts per game and are the prohibitive favorite. As long as Zeke is healthy, I’m toying with playing both in the same lineups and generally like that idea since both could see 12-15 touches with Zeke more towards 20. If Zeke does miss this game (looks unlikely), Pollard would be the chalk that has to be eaten. 

WR – We know Amari Cooper is out and CeeDee Lamb seems very iffy to play with a concussion. If Lamb is out, Michael Gallup is likely the chalk of the slate because he basically did not leave the field last week at a 94% snap rate and he saw 10 targets. The production wasn’t exactly what you were hoping for but that amount of work is hard to pass on under $6,000. The bigger issue is the potential matchup with Casey Hayward on the other side. The Raiders corner has only allowed a 44% catch rate, a 54.8 passer rating, and 0.80 fantasy points per target. 

That could also open up more work for Cedrick Wilson and Noah Brown, who both played over 60% of the snaps. Wilson had the clear advantage in targets at 7-2 so he’s the preferred option, but the game script could be much different. They trailed instantly on Sunday whereas that scenario isn’t as likely in this game. The other corners for the Raiders are under a 1.75 fantasy point per target, a credit to Nate Hobbs and Brandon Facyson. I’m fine with Wilson if Lamb is out but I’m not overjoyed. 

TE – The Raiders have struggled with tight ends as well and that could leave Dalton Schultz as a prime target if the Cowboys are missing their top two receivers. I could see going double tight end in that scenario because Dallas would have limited options in the passing game and last week saw Schultz rack up eight targets, tied for his season-high. That was with Lamb only missing a half of football and Schultz is in the top 12 in yards per route, air yards, receptions, yards, points per game, and target share among tight ends. Considering the other players on the offense when healthy, that is very impressive. Once we have a better idea of Lamb’s status, we can make the call. 

D/ST – They’re always in play but salaries are tight for the other positions, especially if you spend at quarterback. They are forcing turnovers at a crazy high rate so far with 19 in 10 games to go along with 21 sacks so there’s nothing wrong with playing them. Carr has been sacked the 10th most in the league but I’m not sure they’re going to fit the build even as the fourth-ranked DVOA defense. 

Targets – Elliott, Schultz, Gallup, Dak, Pollard, Wilson

Bills at Saints, O/U of 46.5 (Bills -4.5)

QB – There is an argument to be made that Josh Allen is the only truly appealing player out of this game. Both teams have strong defenses despite this past week’s sample size. He’s still top five in fantasy points per dropback, and he’s still first in fantasy points per game at the position. The Saints had their issues with a mobile quarterback last week and Allen is third in yards and carries. New Orleans is more susceptible to the pass as they sit 25th in yards per attempt allowed despite allowing the seventh-lowest completion rate on the season. They have allowed just a 13:11 TD:INT ratio but even though it’s not the best matchup ever, Allen has the highest ceiling/floor combo on this short slate. Not having him could be costly at the end of the night. 

RB – Perhaps I’m going to regret this but I’m not looking into this backfield in the least. For some reason, it’s become a three-headed monster of Zack Moss, Devin Singletary, and Matt Breida. In the past two games when all three have been active, the snaps have been split so none of the three are over 38.6%, Moss and Singletary are tied for the carries lead at just 10 (Breida has eight), and the targets are 5-5-1 with Moss having the one. There’s ugly and there’s whatever it is the Bills are doing here. Oh, on top of that the Saints still have the best rush defense in football as they lead in rush yards allowed per attempt and are second in rushing yards allowed to running backs. Where they struggled last week was containing Philadelphia quarterback Jalen Hurts so that just helps the Allen appeal and not the backs. 

WR – Marshon Lattimore can be a corner that needs to be avoided in some situations but Stefon Diggs is not going to be one of them. He’s not having the exact season he did last year but he’s still ninth in yards and receptions, he’s fourth in air yards and eighth in targets. Where he’s taken a small sep backward is target share at just 18th. That doesn’t mean he’s not capable of having a monster game. Working him in could be tricky but he’s in the top five players likely to have the highest score on the slate. 

I’m not likely to go after Cole Beasley because, after a couple of weeks with a massive target share with their tight end missing, he’s gone back to just seven total targets in the past two weeks. Emmanuel Sanders would be the second receiver that I look towards and he’s still sitting second in aDOT and eighth in unrealized air yards. Sanders is also eighth in deep targets and we know that the Saints are giving up quite a bit through the air. In lineups I don’t have Diggs, Sanders is likely to be there. Gabriel Davis is a player to have exposure to in MME formats. Despite playing under 38% of the snaps, he has a 13.9-yard aDOT and it only takes a long play or a touchdown to pay off. 

TE – Perhaps the biggest wildcard at the position is Dawson Knox. He’s shown he has nuclear upside at this salary with two games over 20 DraftKings points and two others at 14. Buffalo will almost surely be passing a lot if the New Orleans run defense holds up and Knox has a 13.2% target share on the season. Diggs is the man in the red zone but after that, Knox is tied for second on the team with nine red-zone targets and he’s third in touchdowns. That’s really what it comes down to with Knox is if he finds the end zone. You can’t bank on 10 targets like last week but he feels like the kind of non-household name that pops up on these slates. 

D/ST – One of the reasons I’m not a huge fan of Dallas is because Buffalo is still topping total DVOA, they have more turnovers, and they allow fewer points. I’m not worried about last week as we can cast aside a bump in the road fairly easily and go with the seasonal sample size. They still have the highest pressure rate in football and I’ll side with their metrics for $200 cheaper. The Saints don’t have the scariest cast of offensive players even if they get their star running back returning from injury. 

Targets – Allen, Diggs, Sanders, Knox, D/ST, Beasley, Davis 

Saints 

QB – The Buffalo defense was embarrassed on Sunday and Trevor Siemian is not in for an easy time. He does continue to play about as well as could possibly be expected with an 8:2 TD:INT ratio and he’s averaging over seven red-zone attempts per game. Having said that, this Buffalo defense is still one of the best in football against the pass. They allow the lowest completion rate, the lowest yards per attempt, and the fewest overall passing yards in the league. They’re the only team to not allow at least 12 touchdown passes (just seven allowed) and they have tied for the second-most interceptions at 15. I truly think the quarterback pool is Allen, Carr, Prescott, and Dalton with the other two cast aside fairly easily. 

RB – At this juncture, it looks like Alvin Kamara could miss his third straight game and the Saints could give him the long week to get back to full health. If that’s the case, Mark Ingram could be in line for another big workload but I would not expect a repeat of the Jonathan Taylor performance from Sunday against the Bills. He has handled a monster workload in the past two games with 30 carries, 15 targets, and 10 receptions. That’s equated to a 78% snap rate, a 21.7% target share, and the vast majority of running back carries so he’s playing the Kamara role and there is value to that. Buffalo is still 11th in yards allowed per carry and eighth in rushing yards allowed to running backs. They are also under 1,200 scrimmage yards allowed so for the most part, they have been a sort of matchup. I prefer Montgomery at this stage for $200 less. 

WR – If you’re looking for a good matchup, you’re not going to find it here. Marquez Callaway and Tre’Quan Smith look fairly unappealing here as Callaway will see a combo of Tre White and Levi Wallace while Smith will see Taron Johnson in the slot. The trio of Bills all has a catch rate under 54% and a fantasy points per target under 1.40, with White and Johnson being exceptional. You can construct a game script where the Saints trail most of the way but Callaway did nothing out of one touchdown grab last week in a tough spot. Even Smith barely clipped double-digit DraftKings points so we have some better options on the board. 

TE – I was excited to play Adam Trautman since we’ve been pointing out his involvement and he scored a touchdown last week, but he sprained his MCL and is expected to miss 4-6 weeks. If your build leads you to punt the tight end position, Juwan Johnson is the likeliest to get playing time and targets with Trautman out. However, he’s very similar to Kmet in that he could sink your lineup. He’s found the paint three times but only has nine receptions on the season. It’s a very thin play and you’d have to hope Siemian continues to target the position as he did with Trautman. 

D/ST – New Orleans is fifth in total DVOA but they also are 14th against the pass and that is bad news against the pass-heavy Bills. They are sixth in pass attempts per game on the season and that could be a poor mix. They do rank first in DVOA against the run but Buffalo doesn’t really commit to running the ball. The pressure rate is 24.9% but Allen has only been brought down 15 times on the season. 

Targets – Smith, Johnson, Ingram

Core Four

David Montgomery

Josh Jacobs

Dalton Schultz (especially if Lamb is out)

Stefon Diggs or Manny Sanders

I will have a lot of Diggs but in lineups with Zeke, hes harder to afford and I’ll just pivot to Manny

Thank you for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown Thanksgiving Edition and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport.