DraftKings

We’re back to a normal NBA slate before getting another three games tomorrow, so we’ll be taking full advantage of maximizing the potential of our player pool; not necessarily expanding it all that much, but getting the right plays will be key tonight with the Charlotte Hornets likely being the highest rostered players once again. It’s Wet Wednesday’s edition of the Gems – let’a ride.

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Articles of the Day

Before I dive into individual players at each respective position, please note that, for obvious reasons, the Charlotte Hornets are once again at the top of everyone’s priority list. With Ish Smith joining LaMelo Ball, Terry Rozier, Mason Plumlee, and Jalen McDaniels in health and safety protocols, the Hornets are down to a 7-man rotation and will all be popular on tonight’s NBA slate once again.

Point Guards

Steph Curry ($11,400 DK / $10,700 FD)

Steph Curry needs 16 3-pointers to pass Ray Allen for the most 3PM all time in the NBA and I will be rostering him every night until then. Truth be told, with the way both Steve Kerr and Curry’s press conferences went the other night, it looks like he’s gunning for it in this game alone, which would also make him pass teammate Klay Thompson for the most 3PM in a single game. With the Blazers ranking dead last in defensive rating, it wouldn’t surprise me in the least to see Curry go bonkers tonight to set the record and break the NBA slate in the process.

Kyle Lowry ($7,200 DK / $6,500 FD)

With the Heat missing Jimmy Butler after leaving last game with an aggravated tailbone injury, in addition to Bam Adebayo being out for the next 4-6 weeks after surgery, both Kyle Lowry and Tyler Herro are to be highly considered for tonight’s NBA slate. With the two franchise players off the court, Lowry sees an increase in FPPM from 0.96 to 1.03, including a 3.3% increase in usage rate.

Honorable Mentions:

• Luka Doncic ($11,500 DK / $9,900 FD)
• Dennis Schroder ($6,200 DK / $6,300 FD)

Shooting Guards

Brandon Ingram ($9,100 DK / $7,700 FD)

With Brandon Ingram sporting a 30.9% usage rate in his last four games, the former Duke Blue Devil has really turned it up for the Pelicans on the offensive side of the ball. Across 35.2 MPG, Ingram has posted 30 PPG on 54.2% shooting while taking over 20 FGA per night, while also chipping in over 5 RPG and 5 APG. With everyone prioritizing the Hornets and Joel Embiid, Ingram makes for an interesting pivot in NBA tournaments tonight.

Tyler Herro ($7,000 DK / $6,800 FD)

If I’m not rostering Kyle Lowry tomorrow, you can almost guarantee that I roster Tyler Herro. By now, you all should know how I feel about the third-year pro, and with both Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo sidelined, Herro will be tasked with logging a hefty number of minutes while also carrying the load on offense for the Heat versus the defending NBA champions. With both of his teammates off the court, Herro sees an increase in FPPM from 1.07 to 1.12, while also seeing his already astronomical usage rate of 29.3% off the bench rise to 31.5%.

Honorable Mentions

• Zach Lavine ($10,500 DK / $9,100 FD)
• Kelly Oubre Jr. ($7,500 DK / $6,800 FD)

Small Forwards

Anthony Edwards ($8,400 DK / $8,300 FD)

Edwards draws a tough matchup versus one of the NBA’s best defenses in the Utah Jazz, but with D’Angelo Russell doubtful to suit up tonight, his volume will take a notable uptick. Averaging 19 FGA per night, Edwards actually leads the Timberwolves in usage rate at 27.4%, most notably over Karl-Anthony Towns. With DLo sidelined, Edwards sees a whopping 5.5% increase in usage rate, while also seeing his 1.08 FPPM rise to 1.26 in over 365 minutes of action.

Cody Martin ($5,000 DK / $5,000 FD)

One of the few chalk Hornets on this NBA slate that intrigues me is none other than Cody Martin. While he does not offer the flashy upside of Miles Bridges, nor the scoring punch of Kelly Oubre Jr, Martin has logged over 37 MPG for the Hornets since the majority of his teammates landed on the healthy and safety protocol list, while chipping in a 16.5/6/4 scoring line on 50% shooting.

Honorable Mentions:

• Miles Bridges ($8,200 DK / $8,400 FD)
• Dillon Brooks ($6,100 DK / $5,900 FD)

Power Forwards

Domantas Sabonis ($10,300 DK / $8,800 FD)

With the New York Knicks making a notable change to their starting lineup with Nerlens Noel drawing the start for Mitch Robinson yesterday, Sabonis has an even easier matchup on the inside. On the second half of a back-to-back, it’s possible we see Tom Thibodeau make more changes tonight, but Sabonis remains a primary pay up spot for us regardless on this NBA slate; I wrote up him for a few games in a row now, where he has a 20.8% usage rate in his last four with a 20.5/15.3/5.8 scoring line on 66.7% shooting. The Knicks rank 22nd in defensive rating thus far, including being 17th against the roll man in a pick-and-roll offense.

Tobias Harris ($7,600 DK / $7,600 FD)

A pure tournament play for me on tonight’s NBA slate, Tobias Harris presents us with a situation where he can provide leverage to both Joel Embiid and Kelly Oubre Jr. While most will flock to Embiid after the last game, and rightfully so; I even wrote him up for that one; Harris can chip into his ceiling while also only being $100 more than Kelly Oubre Jr, the leverage is too much to pass up on. Sporting a 25.2% usage rate against these same Hornets on Monday, Harris dropped 21/11/4 on a mere 38.9% shooting, hitting only seven of eighteen shots on the night. Should Tyrese Maxey miss his second straight for the 76ers, Harris will be someone to keep an eye on leading up to lock.

Honorable Mentions:

• PJ Washington ($6,800 DK / $7,200 FD)
• Evan Mobley ($6,400 DK / $7,300 FD)

Centers

• Nikola Jokic ($11,900 DK / $11,000 FD)
• Joel Embiid ($11,700 DK / $10,400 FD)

Honorable Mentions:

• Nikola Vucevic ($9,500 DK / $9,000 FD)
• Rudy Gobert ($8,500 DK / $8,800 FD)

You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life

Multiple small NBA slates this week with both Tuesday and Thursday only featuring three games apiece, but with 20 teams in action tonight, we’ll be taking our first look before things get too dicey leading up to lock. It’s Mojito Monday’s edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Articles of the Day

Point Guards

Dejounte Murray ($10,200 DK / $9,900 FD)

It’s always a great day when we get to roster one of the best point guards in the NBA – I said what I said. Dejounte Murray has not only led the Spurs to victories in four straight, rather, he has been simply stuffing the stat sheet. Sporting a 28.9% usage rate in his last six contests, Murray has posted a 21.5/9.7/9.3 scoring line on 44.3% shooting, where he also has a near triple-double every night. Facing a Phoenix defense that has been stout thus far will surely be a good test, but Murray just faced the league’s best unit in the Warriors, where he posted a 23/12/7 line in 37 minutes.

Chris Paul ($8,000 DK / $8,400 FD)

With Devin Booker still sidelined for the Phoenix Suns, we can take the discount on CP3 and run. One of the best to ever do it, Paul is seemingly having one of the best seasons of his career, pacing the NBA in assists as the only player to average 10 or more per game, with 10.1 per contest. He has an increase in FPPM from 1.18 to 1.24 with Booker off the floor, and will be tasked with starting another winning streak after their 18-gamer came to a halt against the Warriors the other night.

Honorable Mentions:

• Darius Garland ($7,900 DK / $7,400 FD)
• Dennis Smith Jr. ($5,300 DK / $5,000 FD)

Shooting Guards

Bradley Beal ($8,800 DK / $8,500 FD)

With Spencer Dinwiddie likely resting for the Wizards tonight on the second half of a back-to-back, I’ll take the buy low spot on Brad Beal. Realistically, I can sit here and discuss his poor shooting and passive offensive play as of late, but the upside is huge for someone that should be priced well above his tag on tonight’s NBA slate. In 3 games with Dinwiddie out this season, Beal has led the charge on offense with a 30.6% usage rate and 27.7 PPG on nearly 20 FGA per night.

Kelly Oubre Jr. ($5,800 DK / $5,800 FD)

With the number of players on the Hornets that were recently placed in health and safety protocols, we’re looking at what is seemingly a 7-man rotation in Charlotte for the upcoming NBA slate. With Oubre and Bridges leading the charge on offense, their sheer volume will place them on our shortlist once again.

Honorable Mentions

• Desmond Bane ($6,800 DK / $5,800 FD)
• Seth Curry ($5,300 DK / $5,600 FD)

Small Forwards

Miles Bridges ($7,700 DK / $8,400 FD)

Similarly to Kelly Oubre Jr, Miles Bridges is simply not priced accordingly with the number of Hornets out for this game. Leading the charge in a surprising victory against the Hawks last night, Bridges not only led his team in scoring, but he was also a defensive force with three steals and a block, being able to guard every position on the floor. A matchup versus the 76ers is no easy feat for a player of his style considering Embiid is waiting for him at the rim, but Bridges’ athleticism gives him an edge in his matchup versus Tobias Harris and Georges Niang.

Franz Wagner ($6,000 DK / $6,400 FD)

On a serious tear for the Orlando Magic, gone are the days of Franz Wagner being underpriced on NBA slates. Sporting a 22.8% usage rate across his last six games, Wagner has posted a 17/5.7/4.5 scoring line on 46.5% shooting, while logging 33.5 MPG for the Magic. The Warriors still boast the league’s best defensive rating, but with Wendell Carter Jr. having the tough matchup of the two primary offensive weapons alongside Cole Anthony, Wagner should find himself in soft spots all night long to hit his jumpers.

Honorable Mentions:

• Josh Giddey ($6,800 DK / $6,200 FD)
• Dillon Brooks ($6,400 DK / $5,900 FD)

Power Forwards

Domantas Sabonis ($10,000 DK / $8,300 FD)

Indiana is back to running their starters into the ground and we are absolutely here for it when it comes to their roles in our success in NBA DFS. Logging 37.5 MPG in his last three, Sabonis has been efficient on both sides of the floor, posting a 17.3/17 double-double average in that same stretch. Facing a Wizards team that will not only be on their second night of a back-to-back, but also rank 25th in the league in points allowed in the paint per game, Sabonis will have a field day with the Gafford/Harrell duo.

John Collins ($7,100 DK / $7,600 FD)

With the Hawks being on the second half of a back-to-back and already without both Bogdan Bogdanovic and De’Andre Hunter, Collins will be tasked with playing a heavy dose of minutes as the roll man to Trae Young’s pick-and-roll offense. With the Timberwolves allowing the 9th most points per possession to the roll man, Collins, who ranks 4th in the NBA with 1.59 points per possession as the roll man, will be able to feast on the inside.

Honorable Mentions:

• DeMar DeRozan ($9,300 DK / $8,500 FD)
• Evan Mobley ($6,600 DK / $7,600 FD)

Centers

• Nikola Jokic ($12,000 DK / $10,900 FD)
• Joel Embiid ($11,000 DK / $10,400 FD)

Honorable Mentions:

• Deandre Ayton ($7,400 DK / $7,700 FD)
• Dewayne Dedmon ($5,000 DK / $5,900 FD)

You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life

Only three games on tap today in the NBA but it does not come short of being just as wild as any other slate. The Charlotte Hornets have many players in COVID protocols, in addition to the Houston Rockets losing a key offensive weapon for their tilt against the New Orleans Pelicans. It’s a Seltzer Sunday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Articles of the Day

Question 1: “Which approach are you taking when building a single lineup? Stars & Scrubs, Balanced, Game stack, etc.?”

Ghost: There’s a handful of players available to us over the 9K range, while only one is over 10K; a balanced lineup is likely.

Adam: It may turn into a balanced night by default. With the Charlotte Hornets having Covid issues and Trae Young being listed as questionable, there may not be a player over $10,000 on DraftKings available to play. Furthermore, the $9,000 range is debatable if they are worth that salary. 

Question 2: “Which stud is a lock for you on this slate?”

Ghost: Miles Bridges doesn’t necessarily qualify as a stud from a price perspective, but he’s my primary target at the top of the pricing grid right now. With LaMelo Ball, Terry Rozier, Mason Plumlee, and Jalen McDaniels all placed in COVID protocols, Bridges will be counted on to play a heavy dose of minutes while leading the offense; with all these players off the court, despite the small sample size, Bridges sees an increase in FPPM from 1.06 to 1.19.

Adam: Spending in the $9,000 range may not be my favorite. The lone exception could be Christian Wood, since the Rockets are without Kevin Porter Jr. and Jalen Green. In that scenario, he has a 31.7% usage rate and 1.53 fantasy points per minute. Given the Rockets playing at the fastest pace in the league and Wood playing 34 minutes last game, he’s likely going to be a focus. 

Also don’t forget Miles Bridges. The Hornets are without LaMelo Ball, Terry Rozier, and Mason Plumlee so Bridges is going to have a bigger share in the offense. I don’t think it’s a bad idea to play three Hornets on such a short slate.

Question 3: “Which stud are you most likely to fade in a single-entry contest or be underweight on in 150-max?”

Ghost: Echoing Adam on this one, and it gives me tremendous pain to say that my boy Bradley Beal will not be in consideration for me tonight. Simply put, he just can’t seem to hit a shot over the last two weeks, and is notably shooting a horrendous 26.2% from behind the arc on the season.

Adam: Bradley Beal, and it makes me sad. He’s just not looking for his shot as much this season and while 20 shots per night is good, 23 per night from last season was better. It’s not that he’s suddenly a bad player but he’s not shown the same ceiling scoring under 23 points per night. 

Question 4: “If you had to pick one star and one value play to be in the winning lineup, who would they be and why?”

Ghost: Miles Bridges and Armoni Brooks. You can see above for my Bridges reasoning, while Armoni Brooks will get the bulk of the duty as the Rockets’ primary ball handler with both Kevin Porter Jr. and Jalen Green on the sidelines.

Adam: Ish Smith and Wood. We’ve outlined why Wood is such a strong play but Smith is going to take the place of Ball in the starting lineup. While DraftKings did price him up to $4,800, that’s not high enough. He leads in minutes while Ball is off the court and has a 24.5% usage rate. The fantasy points per minute are only 0.79 but his true shooting rate is also just 37.8%. 

Question 5: “Give us a hot take for tonight’s slate.”

Ghost: Armoni Brooks goes for 10x value on this slate while having his best offensive performance of the season.

Adam: Clint Capela goes for the Barbara Walter Special (a 20/20 game) and scores virtually the same fantasy points as Wood for a cheaper salary. 

You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life