We had some stellar NBA lineups yesterday thanks to a 10% rostered Dejounte Murray against the Clippers, where his rostership simply made me laugh to the point where my stomach hurt. With all the injuries, players in health and safety protocols, and late scratches, the field seems to be obsessed with landing on the same plays, leaving us to capitalize on the Murray’s and Warriors value plays of last night, such as Otto Porter Jr. We’re looking to keep it rolling with Taco Tuesday’s edition of the Gems – let’s ride.
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Indiana Pacers @ Miami Heat (+2)
With the Pacers being one of the handful of healthy teams in the NBA, they will likely all be underrostered in a smash spot versus a Miami Heat team that is without Bam Adebayo, Jimmy Butler, PJ Tucker, Markieff Morris, Caleb Martin, and potentially Tyler Herro (GTD). While I’ll always have love for playing Malcolm Brogdon, my lean is to the Pacers front court duo of Turner and Sabonis, who will feast in the pick-and-roll game and on the offensive glass.
Despite having multiple offensive weapons out, Miami continues to find a way to score, large in part thanks to Kyle Lowry’s ability to distribute the ball to surrounding shooters including Duncan Robinson, Max Strus, and Gabe Vincent, in addition to Dewayne Dedmon being able to clean up the glass on both ends of the floor with Omer Yurtseven logging some stellar minutes off the bench. I don’t love the idea of paying up for Lowry and Vincent is a tad out of my range, but both Strus and Robinson are great tournament plays on this NBA slate given their streaky shooting ability, in addition to punting center with Yurtseven.
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Dallas Mavericks (-1)
This is likely the game to get at least one piece from each side, if not multiple. The Timberwolves find themselves down Patrick Beverly, Jarred Vanderbilt, Anthony Edwards, Taurean Price, and Josh Okogie, while the Mavericks are going to be without Luka Doncic, Reggie Bullock, Willie Cauley-Stein, Maxi Kleber, and potentially Kristaps Porzingis (GTD). Rather than making Karl-Anthony Towns a priority in my NBA lineups tonight, I’ll turn to the Minnesota value, with pieces such as Nowell, McDaniels, and Reid all being of interest. On the flipside, Dallas has no option but to let the trio of Brunson, Hardaway Jr., and Porzingis (if he plays) carry them on offense tonight – all three will be in store for 36+ minutes, and you know exactly where the offensive production is coming from out of the Mavericks, who play a Timberwolves team for the second time in three days, where the latter ranks 5th in the NBA in pace and will also be without their two best defenders in Beverly and Vanderbilt.
Phoenix Suns @ LA Lakers (+6.5)
The last game I have interest in does not necessarily have the appeal of the Portland/New Orleans game, but there are a few pieces that will be cogs in my NBA lineups tonight, which is why I’m prioritizing it. The Lakers rank 29th in the league to the roll man in pick-and-roll offenses, and now face one of the best distributors to ever set foot on an NBA court in Chris Paul – say hello to a Deandre Ayton explosion game, where the big man ranks second in the league in paint touches per game and is fourth in points in the paint per game with 13.9/contest. The Lakers are now without Anthony Davis, who was lackluster on the defensive side of the ball all season long, but is certainly not worse than the likes of DeAndre Jordan and Dwight Howard.
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