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DraftKings

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 02/01

DFSGhost 3 years ago

written by DFSGhost

Another great NBA slate awaits after we made great lineups yesterday featuring a balanced mix of value plays and mid range studs. It’s a Taco Tuesday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

Washington Wizards

While they are going to be in tough tonight, there is certainly an appeal when it comes to the Wizards rotation versus Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Bucks. Washington will be without franchise star Bradley Beal tonight, meaning there will not only more minutes to go around, rather, more offensive looks for a ton of players. With Beal out of the lineup / off the court this season, the greatest beneficiary has been Kyle Kuzma, who sees a 3.6% increase in usage rate and his FPPM increase from 1.03 to 1.13. Moreover, Spencer Dinwiddie, who is rumored to be on the trading block, not only sees a drastic increase in both scoring and assist rate, but also in usage rate and overall production; Dinwiddie will now be the primary ball handler with Beal off the court, where his usage rate increases from 21% to 25.8%, in addition to seeing his FPPM increase from 0.95 to 1.14.

Miami Heat @ Toronto Raptors

The key news in this game will be the status of Jimmy Butler, but either way, I want exposure to the battle of two Eastern Conference heavyweights. By now, you know the theme of me wanting Toronto Raptors in my NBA lineup, not only because they’re playing great basketball as of late, but because Nick Nurse simply runs his starters into the ground. The starting 5 of Fred VanVleet, Gary Trent Jr, Scottie Barnes, OG Anunoby, and Pascal Siakam will be forced once again to play heavy minutes, whereby the matchup favors Gary Trent Jr and OG Anunoby the most, whom will see no Jimmy Butler as a defensive matchup.

Golden State Warriors

On the second half of a back-to-back, this game is one that I also want exposure to in our NBA lineups, specifically in the backcourt with Klay Thompson resting for the Warriors. Jordan Poole will take on more offensive responsibility alongside Steph Curry, in addition to Andrew Wiggins picking up longer stints in the rotation. On the Spurs side of the ball, it will come to no surprise that my only interest is in Dejounte Murray, who makes his return to the lineup after resting, along with Derrick White and Jakob Poeltl, in their last game.

Brooklyn Nets @ Phoenix Suns

A game with a ton of fireworks, we need exposure to this one in our NBA lineups in some sort of way. Whether it’s at the top of the pricing grid between the duos of James Harden and Kyrie Irving versus Chris Paul and Devin Booker, or in the mid range with Cam Johnson, Bismack Biyombo, and/or Nic Claxton, there is plenty to love about this one. Key news has already dropped with LaMarcus Aldridge (ankle) being ruled out, hence the interest in Claxton. However, this NBA slate can change on a dime should James Harden, who is questionable with a hand injury, miss this one. Stay tuned.

You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life

3 years ago 0 comments

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Initial Picks

Sia 3 years ago

written by Sia

We’re almost done with the “course rotation swing”, but we still have one hurdle to traverse, and it lies at The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. We have three courses that play relatively similar (more on that on the PGA Livestream Tuesday night which can be caught here) and therefore we will have the cut after Round 3 as opposed to Round 2. For my Initial Picks my focus will be on APP, PROX 100-125, ARG, BS and course history. Now let’s get to the picks.

Patrick Cantlay (11200) – He’s the best player in the field and his price is not prohibitive. I’m not locking him in by any means, but he’s the favorite for a reason.

Daniel Berger (10500) – There’s a good chance I start a lot of lineups in the 9k range or that I grab Cantlay and bounce right out of this range, but with that said, Berger is playing at an elite level and he’s the defending champ at The AT&T.

Maverick McNealy (9800) – Mav is from the area and will be among the most comfortable on these three tracks, as evidenced by his 2^nd and 5^th place finish over the last two years. He’s also coming in with good form.

Justin Rose (9600) – Speaking of good form, Justin is starting to find his game in all phases. Last week he gained strokes across the board and he’s finished Top 15 in 3 of his last 4 PGA events.

Seamus Power (9400) – Seamus feels like a newer name to most onlookers but he’s been around the block long enough to have played in this tournament 4 of the last 5 years. His results have been below average with two MC’s and no finishes above 38^th, but today’s Seamus is a different animal and he’s coming in with elite form.

Tom Hoge (8500) – Hoge can get very hot on APP and has the short game to put it all together. The problem is it can also go off the rails here and there. Either way, I think the upside is there for Hoge and I’m willing to play the volatility game with him, unless his ownership is high.

Michael Thompson (7900) – The results have been up and down at the AT&T for Thompson, but the bearded one has taken on a new look and a newfound game with two Top 11 finishes over his last three tournaments. He certainly has MC equity but his ability to pop on APP and with the short game has me interested.

Lucas Glover (7800) – Another middling name with tremendous upside, particularly on APP. Glover has his issues ARG and PUTT, but over the last few tournaments, that has improved enough for me to hope it’s a trend rather than an aberration. Give me the upside with the irons. He finished 50^th and 7^th over his last two at The AT&T.

Russell Knox (7800) – Great course fit and great course history is about all I need to see in this range and Knox certainly has both. A recent 7^th place at the Sony and a 7^th place last year at the AT&T.

Matt Kuchar (7600) – He’s starting to play better golf and he’s a great course fit. Kuchar can get hot with the irons and hot with the putter and has made 3 cuts in a row here.

Chez Reavie (7400) – Leaning on course history and course fit yet again with this selection. Reavie has Top 25 finishes in 3 of his last 4 at The AT&T. His game right now is not in good shape, but I’ve found that when deciding between recent form and course form, it’s the course form that usually wins out. I’ll note that there are a number of guys to like in the low 7k range and we can discuss more on the PGA Livestream (link to show is in opening paragraph).

Mark Hubbard (6700) – The 6k range is pretty dicey and I’d recommend avoiding it, especially since the low 7k range is so rich with potential (Theegala, Merritt, Harkins, Schwartzel, Piercy, Stallings, Piercy, Buckley to name a few). With that said, I’m intrigued by Hubbard’s game as I do believe he’s a good course fit. A very risk play but rates out very with accuracy, APP, ARG and PUTT.

Secret Weapon – 47-15. See you in Discord.

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3 years ago 0 comments

PGA Premium

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Initial Picks

Sia 3 years ago

written by Sia

Patrick Cantlay (11200) – He’s the best player in the field and his price is not prohibitive. I’m not locking him in by any means, but he’s the favorite for a reason.

Matt Kuchar (7600) – He’s starting to play better golf and he’s a great course fit. Kuchar can get hot with the irons and hot with the putter and has made 3 cuts in a row here.

Secret Weapon – 47-15. See you in Discord.

3 years ago 0 comments

NBA Premium

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 01/31

DFSGhost 3 years ago

written by DFSGhost

Plenty of star-studded matchups on tonight’s NBA slate, but there is one game in particular that will go overlooked while being the crown jewel of the slate. It’s a Mojito Monday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

Toronto Raptors @ Atlanta Hawks (-2.5)

While there is plenty to love in the first game on the NBA slate between the Grizzlies and the 76ers, especially at the top of the pricing grid in Joel Embiid and Ja Morant, the Raptors/Hawks game will be a track meet that we need exposure to. Trae Young leads the charge for the Hawks, who are on a 7-game winning streak; the pass-first point guard comes into tonight’s matchup with a 35.9% usage rate on this run, while posting a 28.4/4.7/9.1 scoring line on 44% shooting, including 42% from behind the arc. Otherwise, the Hawks are getting healthy and have a eight players that will likely see close to, if not 20 minutes, in addition to both Lou Williams and Delon Wright as the 9th and 10th pieces in the rotation. Look for news on Bogdan Bogdanovic, who can sit out on the second half of a back-to-back.

On the Raptors side of the ball, there will always be interest for me when they are in elite game environments because of how condensed their rotation is. In a 3OT win against Miami the other day, all of Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet, OG Anunoby, Scottie Barnes, and Gary Trent Jr. played over 50 minutes apiece, with the 3-man bench rotation of Chris Boucher, Precious Achiuwa, and Dalano Banton saw a combined 35 mintutes. With Atlanta ranking 27th in the NBA in defensive rating, including 22nd in 3PM allowed per game, both VanVleet and Trent will be high on my priority list, with the former getting the most favorable matchup versus Trae Young, who has an individual net defensive rating of 116.3 while the Hawks as a whole rank 23rd in the league versus primary ball handlers.

Portland Trail Blazers @ OKC Thunder (+4)

The gem of all gems for me on tonight’s NBA slate, this game will not only fly under the radar, but it will be a primary source of fantasy points for us. The Trail Blazers have lost Nassir Little for the duration of the NBA season, meaning there will be ample opportunity for the main offensive catalysts to lead the charge; CJ McCollum, Norman Powell, Jusuf Nurkic, and Anfernee Simons will all be in my player pool tonight, whereby the guard duo of McCollum and Simons will be of extreme interest to me. Anfernee Simons has quietly filled the shoes of Damian Lillard with effectiveness, averaging 22.1 PPG on 45.5% shooting in his last seven games, where he sports a usage rate of 27.1%.

On the flip side of the ball, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander out for the Thunder, Josh Giddey and Lu Dort will shoulder the bulk of the load on offense. Specifically, Giddey sees an increase in usage rate from 21.7% to 23.1% with SGA off the court, while also seeing his FPPM increase from 1.03 to 1.08 with a notable increase in assist rate. Dort will see the largest increase in shot attempts, while the duo of Mann and Jerome will see more minutes in the backcourt, while Darius Bazley offers exposure to an offense that faces a Portland defense that ranks 29th in the NBA in defensive rating, if you need to go there.

Honorable Mentions:

Memphis Grizzlies @ Philadelphia 76ers (-3.5)
GS Warriors bench @ Houston Rockets

You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life

3 years ago 0 comments

NHL

NHL DFS Between the Benches for DraftKings and FanDuel (Jan. 30)

Allan Fabrykant 3 years ago

written by Allan Fabrykant

Welcome, everyone! We’re back with a brand new Sunday Night Win Daily NHL Article! Last Sunday’s article was really strong. So, let’s keep up the momentum and let’s get some takedowns tonight! Get ready for the newest edition of WinDaily’s Between the Benches! For tonight’s 1/30 NHL slate, we have a smaller four gamer and the slate begins at 7:00 pm ET. Don’t forget to lock your lines and check the discord for any updates! Let’s get right into it!

1/30 NHL Stack Report

Colorado Avalanche 1
Nichushkin – Rantanen – Landeskog (FanDuel: $25,100 | DraftKings: $18,900)
– Unsurprisingly, the Aves are the favourites of the slate. They are among the league’s top tier and are going up against a Sabres side who played last night and have notoriously had goalie troubles as of late. With MacKinnon sidelined with a concussion this line’s affordability makes them an almost must play. Landeskog has seen the lionshare of points as of late, however, Rantanen has seen more success throughout the season. All in all, we see a top team against one of the league’s bottom feeders with a 4.5 implied goal total (highest on the slate by far) along with some of the best offensive stats in the league for the home side (first in shooting percentage, first in goals). Not to mention, as a team, the Avalanche are on a nine game winning streak while Buffalo has three wins in their last 7 games. In cash games, prioritize Colorado’s top line, especially Nichushkin.
Ideal Defensive Partner(s): Cale Makar (FD: $7,500 | DK: $7,500)
Dallas Stars 1
Robertson – Hintz – Pavelski (FanDuel: $24,300 | DraftKings: $20,000)
– Despite an off game against the Caps last time out (they had a goal called back for offside early in the game), Dallas’ top line are still one of the best in the league this season and they will definitely prove to be a handful for Linus Ullmark and the Bruins tonight. The Stars are coming into tonight’s game with a respectable 3.0 implied goal total and I suspect that it is negatively influenced based off their last game, which was not indicative of their overall performances as of late. When these guys score they score in bunches, Hintz alone has had four multipoint games over his last five games, consistently meeting his value. His linemates Pavelski and Robertson are both scoring at over a point per game pace as well this season. (Pavelski 48 points in 41 games, Robertson 39 points in 33 games). Dallas also has an excellent record of 14-5-1 at home which compliments their four wins over their last five games. This is definitely not an easy matchup for the Stars tonight, but the production out of Dallas’ top line has been excellent and I would look to them as a nice higher end stack in tonight’s slate.
Ideal Defensive Partner(s): Miro Heiskanen (Ryan Suter works as a salary saver) (FD: $5,600 | DK: $4,800)

Honorable Mention(s): MIN1 (Zuccarello-Hartman-Kaprizov), CBJ1 (Laine-Jenner-Nyquist), BOS2 (Pastrnak-Haula-Hall)

1/30 NHL Goalie Tracker

Best (Goalies to Roster)

Darcy Kuemper (FD: $8,500 | DK: $8,300)
Jake Oettinger (FD: $7,700 | DK: $7,600)
Honorable Mention(s): Joonas Korpisalo

Worst (Goalies to Target)

Cayden Primeau (FD: $6,700 | DK: $7,500)
Honorable Mention(s): Dustin Tokasrski

1/30 NHL Wild Card Targets

Matthew Boldy (FD: $4,500 | DK: $3,000)
– Boldy hit the ground running since making his NHL debut earlier this month. The rookie winger is now seeing time on Minnesota’s top power-play unit alongside offensive juggernauts like Kaprizov and Zuccarello. Boldy has already registered two multipoint games in his young career and has put together seven points in just eight games. Boldy is steadily seeing more playing time as well, averaging around 17 to 18 minutes a game. He’s coming into tonight red hot with three points and eight shots over his last two games. Considering how low his price is, it’s hard to not lock in Boldy tonight. He works as a one off but also stacks well with his linemates on the third line (Gaudreau-Fiala) as well as his power play linemates (Zuccarello-Kaprizov-Spurgeon).
Honorable Mention(s): Alexander Beauvilier-Noah Dobson, Alex Tuch, Tyler Toffoli

Core Four: (ALWAYS BE STACKIN’)

Center – Mikko Rantanen (listed as a winger on FanDuel)

Winger – Matthew Boldy

Defenseman – Zach Werenski

Goalie – Jake Oettinger

1/30 NHL Monkey Knife Fight NHL Prop Picks – Win With These Picks Here and Get 100 Percent Bonus!

Rantanen – Kaprizov – Robertson – Putting Up Points

Honorable Mention(s): BUF-COL Rapidfire 2/2

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3 years ago 0 comments

NBA Premium

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 01/30

Adam Strangis 3 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 01/30

We’re back in action with just five games tonight and the NBA kept the main slate small since it is NFL Championship Sunday. There is only one team on a back-to-back tonight but we already have major value from one team in the NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 01/30 so let’s go to work!

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

Spurs at Suns

Spurs – San Antonio gives us the main value of the slate as the trio of Dejounte Murray, Derrick White, and Jakob Poeltl are all out. The good news is we know who is out but the bad news is this game is the last one on the slate and the starting lineup is far from set in stone. The names that we need to know and likely chase are Keldon Johnson, Tre Jones, Lonnie Walker, and Drew Eubanks at least. Jones especially will be needed at point guard and he is the bare minimum on DraftKings so it will be hard to really kill the lineup at that salary. Walker (and Devin Vassell) are likely to be the main scoring options and they’ve been around the same minutes a lot lately with Vassell holding a slight edge. All of these players have at least 0.82 points per minute when the main trio is off the floor, so we’ll get a clearer view of the chalk and pivots later in the day.

Suns – We always preach to not calculate blowouts but this is a game where it might be an exception. Phoenix has the best record in the league and it’s hard to see how the Spurs keep it close but maybe the stars get enough work in. On DraftKings at least, I will not pay this salary for Devin Booker and the result of the last game is exactly why. He scored 29 raw points and didn’t hit 50 DK in part because Chris Paul went for a triple-double. With the expense of both guys, they will likely be GPP-only while Cam Johnson is going to be popular again if Jae Crowder remains out. Both Crowder and Deandre Ayton are questionable so we need news to see where the Phoenix exposure comes from.

Jazz at Timberwolves

Jazz – Utah is still short Rudy Gobert at a minimum while Donovan Mitchell is questionable with his concussion. Hassan Whiteside struggled with fouls last game and that kept his upside well in check. I don’t love him on this slate, but the upside is always there with 1.20 points per minute if he can manage to stick on the floor. He’s not going to be a primary target and if Mitchell plays, everyone else for Utah is just way too expensive.

Wolves – D’Angelo Russell is questionable again and when a player leaves one game early and then doesn’t play the next, I lean towards he’s out until he gets confirmed active. If that’s the case, Anthony Edwards is going to be an appealing option along with Karl-Anthony Towns. Both players have a usage rate of 27.7% and 1.27 FPPM and the Jazz defense is worse off without Gobert down low. If KAT could get Whiteside into foul trouble, he would have little resistance but he’s not always that style of player.

Studs To Target

With a player like Tre Jones being an option, we need to go back to the top of the pricing grid with one of Giannis Antetokounmpo, Nikola Jokic, or Luka Doncic. The latter is almost surely going to be without Kristaps Porzingis tonight as KP left very early last night and I can’t imagine the Mavericks pushing KP in a back-to-back against the Orlando Magic. Normally, this would be a time to point out that Luka doesn’t have a massive jump in his usage or FPPM but there is a key factor in Luka’s favor – the Mavericks are also missing Tim Hardaway Jr. Luka has a 40.9% usage and 1.66 FPPM over 284 minutes while Jalen Brunson is at 0.99 FPPM. They do need some scorers down KP and THJ so both men are firmly on the radar.

The decision would be a lot easier if both Giannis and Jokic weren’t facing off against each other. The status of Will Barton is a big deal here because if he’s off the court, the 1.89 FPPM for Jokic is the best on the slate. Of course, he is the most expensive but Jones unlocks it all. Milwaukee is sixth in points allowed in the paint but Jokic does so much more than that and he’s going to make Giannis work defensively tonight. On the offensive end, Giannis should have a clear path to the basket because he’s co-leading the league in FTA and Jokic can simply not afford foul trouble or this game is over fast. Denver is 10th in points in the paint but I think that number goes down tonight and Giannis is one of the few men who can battle on the glass with Jokic all night. As things stand, I side with Giannis out of the three but that could change tomorrow.

You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life

3 years ago 0 comments

NFL Premium

NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown Championship Weekend

Adam Strangis 3 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown Championship Weekend

Typically Championship Weekend for NFL is one of the best weekends in football but I’m not sure how the four teams left standing can beat last week. Three underdogs won and all four games were won on the last play of the game, with the Chiefs capping it off with a game for the ages. Let’s talk about the two games we have at hand on Sunday to carve the path to green screens in the NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown Championship Weekend!

Bengals at Chiefs, O/U of 54.5 (Chiefs -7)

Bengals

QB – These games are going to be interesting because both are repeats of Week 17 and 18, with the Bengals and 49ers emerging with the win. Joe Burrow torched the Kansas City defense in that game with 446 yards and four touchdowns for a cool 37 DraftKings points. He’s played well in his first taste of the postseason and the only thing missing is touchdowns. He’s had a completion rate over 70% in both games, the 592 yards are strong, and he’s looked totally unfazed by anything happening around him. This game carries a total almost 10 points higher than the second game and that is notable. There is a clear tier of quarterbacks this week and Burrow is in the “second” tier in my eyes, simply because he doesn’t have the same rushing upside as Josh Allen did last week and nobody left in the field is in the tier of Mahomes. With the discount, Burrow is slightly easier to fit and he’s going to have all the chances in the world to throw for well over 300 yards and three touchdowns.

RB – The position as a whole this week is fairly gross and Joe Mixon pretty clearly leads the pack based on how the season has gone to this point. He was top five in carries and he has enough role in the passing game that he can be a weapon even if the Bengals wind up playing from behind (they are seven-point underdogs). He’s seen a total of 12 targets over the two playoff games so far and he’s touched the ball 41 times. Kansas City is weak against the run and has allowed over 80 yards per game so far. They were also 20th in DVOA against the run and allowed the fourth-most receptions to backs. It’s worth noting that when these teams played in Week 17, Mixon had seven receptions on eight targets and that was with the rest of the offense going nuts. I suspect some of the passing options from these games will be popular, leaving little room to pay for a back. That will be fascinating to watch unfold closer to lock.

WR – Ja’Marr Chase has yet to find the paint in the playoffs and still has scored at least 19.1 DraftKings points in each game, making him one of the best targets at the position this week. He nuked the Chiefs defense in Week 17 with over 56 DK points and even though we’re not going to get that again, he’s had 18 targets total and the salary has not been lower than it is this week. We need a lot of exposure to this game and the matchup with Charvarius Ward matters little with Chase. Ward did allow 1.43 points per target and only a 45.2 completion rate but also a 13.0 YPR, right in the wheelhouse for Chase and the downfield passing attack.

I’m very curious to see how the field reacts to the poor game from Stefon Diggs last week. If they transfer that outcome to Chase and make Tee Higgins more popular, I’ll love Chase even more although Higgins is a super strong play as well. Higgins was right with Chase as far as targets all season long and had nine again last week for 16.6 DK points. He also gets to see Rashad Fenton who allowed a 65.1% catch rate on the year, a big difference over Ward. If I’m plying Burrow this week, the odds are I will double stack him with both Chase and Higgins or possibly one of those two and the tight end, but we’ll get there. Tyler Boyd is the clear third wheel among receivers and he’s lagging behind the whole passing game, sitting fifth in targets through the playoffs. L’Jarius Sneed also played most of the slot snaps for KC and allowed 1.50 points per target so there’s room for Boyd to have a game if he actually was getting targeted.

TE – C.J. Uzomah is about as low as we can conceivably go for the position this week and I may well be doing just that. It’s not just the fact that he’s scored at least 14 DraftKings points in the past two games, he’s seen 14 total targets. He only averaged 3.9 targets per game in the regular season and there’s a possibility that KC will be missing Tyrann Mathieu in their defensive backfield on Sunday. Even if he plays, Uzomah has suddenly become a big part of the offense and Burrow has at least 34 attempts in each game, leaving room for him again. If I’m in love with everything else in the lineup, Uzomah isn’t the worst-case scenario.

D/ST – Cincinnati may have finished the year with 42 sacks on the regular season and tacked on another four in the playoffs with five turnovers but I can’t go against the Chiefs in Arrowhead with a defense. Ask Buffalo how that ended last week, and they were the number one defense in almost anything we could have asked for.

Targets – Burrow, Chase, Higgins, Uzomah, Mixon, Boyd

Chiefs

QB – Sometimes all you can do is shake your head and that’s about all we can say for Patrick Mahomes after last week. He threw for 378 yards, ran for 69, accounted for four total scores, and was just in total command of the offense. For a while this year, the Chiefs struggled a bit with two-deep shell defenses but Mahomes and company have grown more patient and let the talent take over. Seeing this Bengals defense within the past month isn’t going to end well in my eyes and the only reason you don’t play Mahomes is the salary involved. It’s nothing crazy but there’s not a ton of easy value plays this week.

RB – We saw Jerick McKinnon and Clyde Edwards-Helaire split time as expected but it wasn’t reported until Sunday that McKinnon was expected to be the lead. That’s exactly what happened as CEH touched the ball eight times to 15 for McKinnon although CEH did generate 69 scrimmage yards to 78 for McKinnon. The deciding factor is McKinnon is a touch cheaper and he was the clear receiving back, which matters a good deal in PPR settings. That was a major sore spot for the Bengals as well as they were fifth in receptions allowed to backs and if he’s going to get 8-12 carries as well, that’s going to make him a better play than CEH. I’m fully prepared to move this around if we get reports that CEH is going to lead this week, but McKinnon has made some explosive plays in both facets of the game even though he was shut down on the ground last week.

WR – Welcome back to the land of the fantasy living, Tyreek Hill. He went ballistic including a signature touchdown (should have been a flag but I digress) and we could well be in for a repeat this week. It’s basically the same thing as Mahomes that there is nothing wrong with playing Hill, but there are cheaper alternatives that have similar ceilings. What we really love for Hill is he plays close to 40% of his snaps from the slot and that leaves him on Mike Hilton for the Bengals. That is a significant mismatch (most corners are) in the favor of the Chiefs and Hilton allowed a 72.4% catch rate and ran a 4.6-second 40-yard dash back in 2016 for the combine. Godspeed, Mike Hilton.

Byron Pringle continued his streak of being useful for fantasy with a touchdown and he does draw Eli Apple in coverage, which isn’t the worst-case scenario. Pringle also has at least seven targets in four of the past five games and that gets your attention at just $4,300. Apple has allowed 13.3 yards per reception this season and 1.60 fantasy points per target so he’s viable as a stacking component or if you decide to not play Hill. Mecole Hardman scored last week but had just one target and two rushing attempts so that’s not something I want to take a chance on. Pringle has been seeing much more reliable volume.

TE – Based on what we saw in the regular season, this could be much of a better spot for Travis Kelce. Cincinnati got gouged by tight ends all year, sitting bottom-five in both receptions and yards and Kelce has at least five receptions, 96 yards, and a touchdown in both playoff games so far this year. Realistically, there is no reason to shy away here as he has the highest upside left of anyone with how each team is playing. He was held in check the first game around but I expect the Chiefs to have solved that puzzle this time and Kelce seems like a sure bet to approach 20 DraftKings Points.

D/ST – The Chiefs aren’t an easy sell here either, as they got smashed last week for a -2 DK score. They only have 35 sacks through 19 games but they have generated 30 turnovers, which helps a bit. The Cincinnati offensive line has struggled through portions of the year, as they did last week with nine sacks allowed. I will say they weren’t all the fault of the offensive line but regardless, I’d much rather pay $200 more for the Rams unit later on in the slate.

Targets – Mahomes, Hill, Kelce, McKinnon, Pringle, CEH

Prop to Bet – Joe Burrow Over 286.5 Passing Yards

Game Pick – Chiefs, 38-31

49ers at Rams, O/U of 46 (Rams -3.5)

49ers

QB – I certainly get it, nobody wants to play Jimmy Garoppolo this week. He’s barely over 10 DraftKings points in both playoff games combined so that’s pretty far from ideal. Jimmy G is looking for his first touchdown pass in the postseason and despite averaging 8.6 yards per attempt during the season (second-highest), he’s yet to even pass for 175 yards in a game. It can be worth exploring your options on short slates like this but it’s impossible to say that Garoppolo offers the same upside as the other three options. He averaged six fewer fantasy points than everyone else and is dealing with an injury so, at the minimum, you almost have to find a way to the quarterback on the other side of this game.

RB – It was a slow week for Eli Mitchell last week against the Packers in the cold but I’m not letting that worry me this week. He’s getting a boatload of touches when he’s healthy and the last four weeks it’s been 23, 21, 28, and 20 touches. He is a little bit touchdown-dependent because only six of those touches have been receptions, so the floor is a little lower than we would typically chase. However, only three backfields are based around one back with the Chiefs being the exception and Mixon is pricey compared to the rest of the position. These two teams just played each other in Week 18 and Michell handled over 20 touches with 85 yards rushing, but he didn’t accrue another stat so the DraftKings score was just 8.5. If he finds the end-zone, he has a very strong chance of paying off this week.

WR – I can’t spend on Deebo Samuel this week when he’s more expensive than Hill and Chase but has had fewer than seven targets in every game since Week 9 except for one. It’s great that he’s getting rushing attempts (35 in the past five games) but I’ll take double-digit targets at cheaper prices. Jalen Ramsey has faced him for eight targets this season and Deebo has 3/88/1 total so it’s not that I’m terrified of Ramsey himself. It’s much more the utilization of Deebo compared to the other receivers in his salary tier and his upside doesn’t exactly match, even if it’s not terribly far behind.

Brandon Aiyuk came up with a zero last week on just one target but I’m willing to mostly throw that game out for the elements. If Deebo continues to not be a volume receiver, someone has to get targets in a game where the 49ers are underdogs. Aiyuk’s lone 100-yard game this season came against this secondary and if you want a mid-tier receiver, Aiyuk is high on my list. He was 18th in yards per reception this season and managed to get over 800 yards this year despite being in the doghouse for a long time in the early going.

TE – George Kittle continues to just not do a whole lot so far in the playoffs (or the weeks leading up to it) and it’s confusing when you see how few targets a guy like Deebo is getting. The biggest fear is Kittle has to stay in and help block against that stout defensive line of the Rams but he’s also the only player at the position that can rival the upside of Kelce and he won’t be as popular. In the two games they’ve played, Kittle has a combined 14 targets at has scored a touchdown. It could make for an interesting double tight end build with Kelce or a fade possibly overall, but the floor has been scary.

D/ST – There’s a world where the San Francisco defense can have a good showing fantasy-wise and the Rams offense still plays well, so they are on the board under $3,000. They’ve totaled 10 sacks through two games which is double any team that is left. Both teams have allowed under 300 yards per game to the opposition and the total of this game is way lower. I’d be targeting defenses from this side, even if I don’t expect them to score over 20 DK points again.

Targets – Mitchell, Kittle, Aiyuk, Deebo, D/ST

Rams

QB – Matthew Stafford might still be laughing at any idea of not being able to perform in a big game. The DVOA for San Francisco was 16th in the league during the year but they also were bottom 10 in completion rate allowed and Stafford has played extremely well in the past two games. The first matchup between these teams saw the 49ers house the Rams but the second game was more competitive and Stafford threw three scores and 238 yards. I’d rather get to Burrow for the game environment but if Stafford is sitting third in popularity, it’s hard not to want to take some shots.

RB – He may have fumbled twice last week but this is now the Cam Akers show and Sony Michel is an afterthought. Akers handled 27 touches last week and sure, the results weren’t great against Tampa. Most running backs don’t have strong games against the Bucs front seven and San Francisco is a tougher spot as well. They were second in DVOA against the run and called the seventh-fewest rushing yards but we simply can’t turn a blind eye to this level of volume at $5,000 flat on DraftKings. Akers is a strong value play and he’s been a little bit involved in the passing game as well with three receptions last week despite the offense crawling into a shell for too long in the second half.

WR – The decision here and one of the biggest decisions on the slate revolves around Cooper Kupp because his upside is incredible and his floor might be the safest of any skill position player. However, he’s at least $1,800 more expensive than Hill and Chase so not only do you need him to pay off the salary but you need him to be a LOT better than those two to make things worth it. My lean is to not go here because the salary is just too steep but of course, Kupp is always in play.

Just like Aiyuk, Odell Beckham makes more sense to me as far as salary involved and getting exposure to something in the offense and he’s coming off seeing eight targets last week. Beckham has scored six times already as a Ram and now we have Van Jefferson listed as questionable and has been limited in practice. That would only help Beckham but it does not seem like a huge worry. Beckham could see Emmanuel Moseley who was excellent this year with 1.09 points per target and a 53.2% each rate but Beckham looks rejuvenated in LA and the salary works to get other star players.

TE – The 49ers have not exactly figured out how to keep Tyler Higbee out of the end zone this year as he’s scored three total touchdowns in the two games. That’s not a great reason to chase Higbee but he is very cheap and he’s seen at least five targets in every game since Robert Woods was lost for the season. He was a red-zone monster the entire way (top-five RZ targets among tight ends) for the Rams even though he’s only scored five total times this season. Higbee could make a stack with Stafford more contrarian if you went Stafford/Kupp or Stafford/OBJ.

D/ST – If I can get there, the Rams are the best overall defense on the slate because they face the clear weakest quarterback. It’s also not going to help San Francisco that tackle Trent Williams is going to play but might be less than 100% even though he dodged a broken bone in his ankle. LA has five sacks through their two games and harassed Tom Brady relentlessly last week, so the only reason stopping playing them is the salary and they’re likely to be the highest-rostered unit on the slate.

Targets – Akers, Stafford, OBJ, Kupp, Higbee, D/ST

Prop To Bet – Brandon Aiyuk Over 47.5 Receiving Yards

Game Pick – Rams 28-17

Thank you for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown Championship Weekend and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport.

3 years ago 0 comments

NHL

NHL DFS Friday Night Forecheck for DraftKings and FanDuel (Jan. 28)

allenjesse24@yahoo.com 3 years ago

written by allenjesse24@yahoo.com

Friday 1/28 NHL Breakdown

Welcome back for another installment of the Friday Night Forecheck here at Win Daily Sports! Tonight, we get a nice five game slate. It’s not too big, and not too small, and at first glance looks like a pretty good one. Good luck!

Goalies

Pavel Francouz – Colorado Avalanche: The Avs head to Chicago tonight to face the Blackhawks in a game they should pretty much dominate. They have a massive implied team total and should be able to handle the Hawks. The issue is limited upside here, so he may not be the optimal for GPPs tonight.

Braden Holtby – Dallas Stars: Dallas hosts the Washington Capitals tonight, and Holtby appears to be getting the start against his old team. This is a great spot for Holtby, as the Stars are a better team at home. There should definitely be some shot upside here, and the potential for a win is very real.

Bonus GPP Goalie Pick – Cam Talbot – Minnesota Wild: The Wild head to the Big Apple tonight to take on the Rangers, who just played last night in Columbus. While the Rangers have been better on home ice of late, they could be due for a letdown, and Talbot could very well go in and steal a game from them tonight. NARRATIVE ALERT!! Talbot was the backup to Henrik Lundqvist for two years, and the Rangers are retiring Hank’s number tonight. Marc-Andre Fleury is a consideration for a VERY RISKY GPP ONLY play, against the Avalanche tonight, who could possibly be without their star center in MacKinnon. Even without him, this is a very risky play, but it makes sense given the shot upside and the fact that MAF loves showing up in weird, unlikely spots.

Lines to Build Around

These lines are considered top plays for the night and can be considered the focal point of your builds. They will be listed by position in the following order: Center/Winger/Winger/Correlating Defenseman (if applicable).

Boston Bruins Power Play – Patrice Bergeron/David Pastrnak/Brad Marchand/Taylor Hall/Charlie McAvoy: The Bruins head to the desert tonight to face the lowly Coyotes and their pretty bad goalie in Scott Wedgewood. This unit is high powered, and will be facing the second worst penalty killing unit in the league tonight. It feels like a Pastrnak night, so if you want to go straight BOS2, that works in this situation as well.

Colorado Avalanche 1 – Nazem Kadri/Gabriel Landeskog/Mikko Rantanen/Cale Makar: The Avs called up a center from the AHL last night, which could indicate that Nathan MacKinnon will be out tonight, after taking a rough looking, but totally clean (THERE I SAID IT!) hit from Taylor Hall the other night. Even if Mac can’t go tonight, this is a nice play with Kadri in the top line at C. Kadri has been more than adequate replacing Mac as needed, and this line is in a great spot tonight. Make sure you keep an eye on news through the day, and if MacKinnon does go, then he goes in Kadri’s place.

High Risk Lines

These are plays that carry significantly more risk, but could pay off at low ownership. They will be listed by position in the following order: Center/Winger/Winger/Correlating Defenseman (if applicable).

Dallas Stars 1 – Roope Hintz/Jason Robertson/Joe Pavelski/Miro Heiskanen: The Stars are a much better team on home ice, and tonight they host the Capitals. This even strength matchup bodes well for the Stars, as this line should see much of the depth lines for the Caps. The Stars at home generally match the Glendening line to the opposing top line, setting up this very nice depth matchup.

Minnesota Wild 2 – Frederick Gaudreau/Matthew Boldy/Kevin Fiala/Matt Dumba: A lot of folks will be on the top Minnesota line, and for good reason. The top line looks good as well here, but this second line should be more of a focus, simply based on even strength matchup. The Wild second line should be in for some very good looks tonight, as they face mostly the second line for the Rangers.

Pittsburgh Penguins 1 – Sidney Crosby/Jake Guentzel/Bryan Rust/Kris Letang: the Penguins host the Red Wings tonight, and frankly this game could go either way. The Pens played last night, and are starting a bad goalie in Desmith. With Nedeljkovic likely starting for the Wings, expect a lot of goals tonight, giving this line an opportunity to slide under the radar with Boston and Colorado on the slate.

Detroit Red Wings 2 – Pius Suter/Tyler Bertuzzi/Robby Fabbri/Moritz Seider: The second line for the Wings has been very good recently, and tonight sets them up with a chance to continue that. The Pens loosely match their top two lines against opposing top 2 D pairings, setting this line up for plenty of chances tonight. They will likely carry little ownership, so they are a very nice target for value tonight.

Honorable Mentions: WSH2, NYRPP, MIN1

Value Options – DraftKings

Center: Pius Suter ($3400) – Detroit Red Wings

Wing: Matt Boldy ($2500) – Minnesota Wild

Defense: Samuel Girard ($3600) – Colorado Avalanche

Value Options – FanDuel

Center: Frederick Gaudreau ($4500) – Minnesota Wild

Wing: Craig Smith ($4000) – Boston Bruins

Defense: Esa Lindell ($4500) – Dallas Stars

Cash Considerations – DraftKings

Center: Nazem Kadri – Colorado Avalanche

Wing: David Pastrnak – Boston Bruins

Defense: Miro Heiskanen – Dallas Stars

Goalie: Pavel Francouz – Colorado Avalanche

Cash Considerations – FanDuel

Center: Nazem Kadri – Colorado Avalanche

Wing: David Pastrnak – Boston Bruins

Defense: Miro Heiskanen – Dallas Stars

Goalie: Pavel Francouz – Colorado Avalanche

Make sure to hop in our Expert Discord Chat for FREE! Jon and the NHL team will be there answering questions right up until lock! Be sure to be on the look out for future articles at https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-hockey/

All line combinations are courtesy of www.dailyfaceoff.com, and the advanced rates referenced in the above article are pulled from www.naturalstattrick.com.

3 years ago 0 comments

NBA Premium

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 01/28

DFSGhost 3 years ago

written by DFSGhost

With only two games on yesterday’s NBA schedule, today is filled with great spots and individual talent. It’s a Fajita Friday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

Indiana Pacers @ OKC Thunder

Another NBA slate where we need to be taking advantage of a depleted Pacers rotation. While Domantas Sabonis has been upgraded to questionable for this one after participating in practice on Thursday, Indiana is still without Myles Turner, Malcolm Brogdon, and TJ McConnell. Although Caris LeVert is coming off a foul-troubled performance, he remains a key focus for us, as he takes over the Pacers offense as the primary ball handler. Otherwise, should Sabonis remain out for this one, Goga Bitadze would get the bulk of the minutes at the ‘5’ versus an OKC team that ranks 25th in the NBA in rebounding.

On the flip side of this game, it should be no surprise that my main target is none other than Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who continues to be on an impressive run. Having scored 20 or more points in seven of his last eight, SGA has sported a 32.8% usage rate during that stretch, posting a 27.8/5.4/7.3 scoring line on 48.4% shooting. Taking on an Indiana defense that is 24th in the NBA versus opposing primary ball handlers with Malcolm Brogdon out of the lineup, there is no slowing SGA down tonight.

Minnesota Timberwolves @ Phoenix Suns

The Timberwolves are on the second half of a back-to-back after a loss to the Warriors, and while the status of Patrick Beverley remains up in the air, we know where the offensive production comes from: Anthony Edwards, Karl-Anthony Towns, and D’Angelo Russell. However, the latter left last night’s game with a shin injury and did not return, so should DLo be ruled out of this one, we can turn to Jaylen Nowell as a value play for this NBA slate, especially if Beverley misses once again.

With the number of injuries the Suns have right now, both of these rotations are going to be tight and we need exposure to them. On the Phoenix side of the ball, they will once again be without Deandre Ayton, Jae Crowder, Cam Payne, and JaVale McGee, whereby Chris Paul and Devin Booker will be playing north of 36 minutes each again tonight, making them elite plays on an NBA slate where they face a Minnesota team that ranks 4th in pace. To round out the rotation, Bismack Biyombo, Cam Johnson, and Mikal Bridges will all see a ton of minutes, as the starting 5 will carry the Suns in this one. Don’t overthink it.

Honorable Mentions:

Boston Celtics @ Atlanta Hawks
LA Lakers @ Charlotte Hornets
Portland Trail Blazers @ Houston Rockets

You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life

3 years ago 0 comments

NBA Premium

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 01/27

Adam Strangis 3 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 01/27

It’s a rare slate that has under three games but that’s where we are tonight. That can make things challenging in a different way because while the options are limited, it can be hard to fit anything that you’d like to play all together. Raw points will matter more than normal in the NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 01/27 so let’s get into it to find our green screens!

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

Question 1: “Which approach are you taking when building a single lineup? Stars & Scrubs, Balanced, Game stack, etc.?”

Ghost: Unless more injury news comes in, I’ll be going with a single stud and balanced the rest of the way.

Adam: There is not a ton of value at least as of the night before the slate locks, so it will be locking in one stud player and then going balanced the rest of the way for now.

Question 2: “Which stud is a lock for you on this slate?”

Ghost: Joel Embiid. He’s coming into tonight’s contest with 30 or more points in a whopping 14 of his last 15, where he’s sported a 41% usage rate while averaging 34.7/10.7/4.3 on 55.9% shooting, including getting to the charity stripe an average of 12 times per game.

Adam: Center is extremely shallow tonight after the high-end, so it makes sense to me to lock in the best option there in Joel Embiid. No player on this entire slate can match his usage of right around 41% with both Seth Curry and Shake Milton out along with his fantasy points per minute which is around 1.80. On a slate that is so small, raw points matter and Embiid has a great chance to lead the slate at a thin position.

Question 3: “Which stud are you most likely to fade in a single-entry contest or be underweight on in 150-max?”

Ghost: Steph Curry can wreak havoc on any given NBA slate, but even a 30-5-5 night won’t be enough to outscore Embiid. If more value appears, I’m more likely to pair LeBron James with Embiid than I am to play Curry.

Adam: Anyone not named Embiid. In all seriousness, it doesn’t at all look like we can fit two and I’m not willing to bet Steph Curry, LeBron James, or anyone else outscores Embiid in fantasy tonight.

Question 4: “If you had to pick one star and one value play to be in the winning lineup, who would they be and why?”

Ghost: Joel Embiid and Jarred Vanderbilt. While the latter’s offensive production is somewhat limited while running most of his minutes next to a combination of D’Angelo Russell, Anthony Edwards, and/or Karl-Anthony Towns, his rebounding and defensive upside give us more than enough at a thin PF position.

Adam: We’re going to be looking at the double center approach and pairing Embiid with Kevon Looney. His recent game logs are uninspiring but the matchup against Karl-Anthony Towns should demand the Warriors need Looney’s size tonight on the interior. Minnesota is 21st in rebounds allowed in the paint and 19th in points allowed and that’s enough to take some chances with Looney at a sub-$5,000 salary.

Question 5: “Give us a hot take for tonight’s slate.”

Ghost: LeBron James continues his offensive dominance by scoring more than 30 points in a losing effort to Joel Embiid.
Adam: Klay Thompson sets his high-water mark in scoring tonight with 25 real points in just 25-27 minutes on the floor.

You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life

3 years ago 0 comments

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1/30 NHL Monkey Knife Fight NHL Prop Picks – Win With These Picks Here and Get 100 Percent Bonus!

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 01/30

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Studs To Target

NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown Championship Weekend

Bengals at Chiefs, O/U of 54.5 (Chiefs -7)

Bengals

Chiefs

49ers at Rams, O/U of 46 (Rams -3.5)

49ers

Rams

Friday 1/28 NHL Breakdown

Goalies

Lines to Build Around

High Risk Lines

Value Options – DraftKings

Value Options – FanDuel

Cash Considerations – DraftKings

Cash Considerations – FanDuel

Indiana Pacers @ OKC Thunder

Minnesota Timberwolves @ Phoenix Suns

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 01/27

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