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DraftKings

NHL DFS Hot Shot for DraftKings and FanDuel (Mar. 3)

Richard Masana 3 years ago

written by Richard Masana

Maybe it won’t come as a surprise but the Calgary Flames headline us once again!

3/3 NHL Main Slate of Games – Beginning 7 p.m. ET

Pittsburgh Penguins (+150) at Tampa Bay Lightning (-175) – 6 Projected Goal Total

Ottawa Senators (+295) at Florida Panthers (-390) – 6.5 Projected Goal Total

Carolina Hurricanes (-140) at Washington Capitals (+120) – 5.5 Projected Goal Total

Minnesota Wild (-225) at Philadelphia Flyers (+180) – 6 Projected Goal Total

Vancouver Canucks (+105) at New York Islanders (-125) – 5.5 Projected Goal Total

Edmonton Oilers (-155) at Chicago Blackhawks (+135) – 6 Projected Goal Total

Montreal Canadiens (+310) at Calgary Flames (-400) – 6 Projected Goal Total

Colorado Avalanche (-380) at Arizona Coyotes (+290) – 6.5 Projected Goal Total

Boston Bruins (-105) at Vegas Golden Knights (-115) – 5.5 Projected Goal Total

3/3 NHL Favorite Lines Per Dollar

Top Line – Calgary One “Matthew Tkachuk, Elias Lindholm, Johnny Gaudreau”

The season-long numbers displayed below sort of speak for themselves. Over the last ten games, Calgary One has only been a top-five line in the NHL, which is fairly substandard for them given the full season stats. They come in the biggest money line favorites on the slate at -400, as hosts to the Montreal Canadiens. Samuel Montembeault is projected to start in net for the visitors as of the time of writing. His .896 save % and 3.74 GAA are indicative of the gas can he is. At $6,100 for Elias Lindholm, $6,600 for Johnny Gaudreau, and $6,000 for Matthew Tkachuk on DraftKings, this line is underpriced all things considered.

Secondary Line – Colorado One “Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen, Andre Burakovsky”

Once the belles of the ball and still ever popular, tonight the Avalanche’s top line is the ying to Calgary one’s yang. Aside from Nathan MacKinnon at $9,000, this line is fairly affordable as well with Mikko Rantanen priced down a little at $6,900 and Andre Buravoksky at $4,100 serving as the value piece. The last time Colorado traveled to Arizona they were able to lay a smackdown on a back-to-back after losing the prior night to the Yotes at Ball Arena. Winners of four straight, the Avs will look to beef up their numbers against one of the league’s worst teams. On most slates, the -380 money line sticker would stand out by a wide margin as huge by NHL standards, but with Calgary at -400, this is not most slates.

3/3 NHL Honorable Mention: Calgary Two “Andrew Mangiapane, Mikael Backlund, Blake Coleman”

We may not need a real value-line tonight with some of the better lines in the upper mid-range as noted above. However, if looking to build a bit contrarian and still gain some Flames access look no further than Calgary Two. They might not have season-long numbers on par with their top-line counterpart but over the last ten games have scored the second-most goals among all lines in the NHL. The correlative SATF suggests unlike Florida Three just below them, there were no smoke and mirrors involved.

Top Defender

Rasmus Andersson – Calgary Flames – $4,500 – He certainly has not found much of the net as of his thirty points, twenty-eight of them have been assists. However, most defensemen with his sort of role on the top line and top power-play unit cost around $1,500-$2,000 more. Given the affordable price, lack of low-end value, and supreme matchup, we can hope for a two-assist or assist and three blocked shot sort of night.

Top Goalie

Jacob Markstrom – Calgary Flames – $8,500 – In the alternate, you can opt to pick a side on Vancouver/Islanders where both Ilya Sorokin and Thatcher Demko are talented goalies who cost considerably less in a 5.5 total game. However for cash games and overall it is hard to pass up on Markstrom in this sort of matchup with his stellar 2.10 GAA and the likelihood of a win here at -400. Despite the Flames’ heavy money line advantage, the total is still set at six, thus we can assume which team is projected to allow most of the goals.

3/3 NHL Best Bet

Arizona Coyotes +2.5 – (-135) Bet MGM – I know, I did write up Colorado One and the Avalanche should win the game as -400 road favorites. However, they have some tough games ahead on their road trip including a couple of bouts with Calgary. The Yotes have covered +2.5 in seven straight games entering tonight and have upset home wins over both Vegas and Dallas during that stretch. Scott Wedgewood has stepped up in net recently and already has a win over the Avs from the game mentioned above where the Coyotes pulled off the upset at Ball Arena in the beginning of February. We don’t need that much luck, just a +2.5 cover.

Make sure to hop in our Expert Discord Chat for FREE! Rich will be there answering questions all day and all night! Follow Rich on Twitter @JFan303 and be sure to be on the lookout for future articles at https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-hockey/

3 years ago 0 comments

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 3/3

Adam Strangis 3 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 3/3

The NBA schedule is continuing to truck along with another seven games tonight and we do have some back-to-back situations to deal with. That could change the slate in a big way after this is published, but we’ll have everything updated in the Discord as always. Let’s take a look at the spots that look great to attack in the NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 3/3 and carve paths to green screens again!

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

Kings at Spurs

Kings – I wouldn’t expect any player for the Kings to sit out tonight as they need every single win they can get and they are still affordable for what the roles are. I would likely side with Domantas Sabonis tonight ahead of De’Aaron Fox since Dejounte Murray awaits on the other side of this matchup. San Antonio has a major weakness in the paint as they are 20th in points allowed in the paint and 26th in rebounds allowed in the paint. Sabonis is at 10.9 paint touches per game and scores 9.6 points per game in the paint so this is a great spot for him. Trey Lyles should likely continue to be a starter and as long as that happens and he’s playing 30 minutes, he’s still a value play. On top of everything else, both teams are in the top seven in pace so this is a shootout-style of game.

Spurs – It’s a Dejounte kind of night as he is priced below his ceiling for this matchup. Since the trade deadline, Murray has a 27.5% usage rate and 1.56 FPPM with a whopping 44.2% assist rate. Given the pace of this game and how much Murray contributes to all categories, he’s one of the main targets at the top of the pricing grid. Another player who has found some stability after the deadline (credit to Tony for this play the other night) is Lonnie Walker. He’s scored at least 27 DK in the past five games and is playing 24ish minutes off the bench. What stands out is the 27.4% usage e rate which is right alongside Murray as the team lead with Derrick White playing in Boston. If you don’t play Murray, Walker is a great alternative that is cheaper as the other main cogs like Jakob Poeltl and Keldon Johnson are just average targets.

Bulls at Hawks

Bulls – This game is a repeat of the game directly after the All-Star Break and the Bulls are getting a little more playable as far as salary. His game logs haven’t been spectacular lately but Zach LaVine is only $8,000 and that is insanely tempting. With Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso still out of the lineup, LaVine is boasting a 27.3% usage rate and 0.95 FPPM. This game environment should be one of the better ones on the slate with both teams being in the bottom 10 in defensive rating. There is an explosion game coming from LaVine sooner or later. I’m still slightly hesitant with DeMar DeRozan when he’s over $10,000 but the Hawks defense should allow him to score at least 50 DK points tonight. Nikola Vucevic would be this but the loss of Onyeka Okongwu does leave the frontcourt for Atlanta pretty thin since John Collins is doubtful as well. With this big three, you’re only playing one and trying to get the best game for the salaries involved.

Hawks – Provided Trae Young is active and not limited, he’s close to Murray for targets at the high end. Young played 37 minutes even with his ankle banged up so I feel he’s playing and he scored 32 DK against Chicago about a week ago. However, he shot just 3-17 and that won’t happen again. The Bulls not having Ball and Caruso is a big deal and Young can pop for 60 DK. I also am very interested in Clint Capela since he’s going to have to play big minutes here with Vuc on the other side. Okongwu has been getting minutes lately but that’s not an option tonight and Capela is under $6,000. I’d be surprised if he’s not chalky but I don’t think that’s a wrong approach. Chicago is in the bottom 12 in both points and rebounds allowed in the paint and Capela put up 40 DK in the last matchup. Bogdan Bogdanovic is still a fine mid-range target as the secondary scorer in the offense and he’ll play 35 minutes in a close game.

Honorable Mention

Lakers at Clippers (Malik Monk has my eye as a value play)

Teams To Monitor

Celtics – Jaylen Brown has been ruled out already and that could mean the field flocks to Jayson Tatum, who has a 1.38 FPPM and 35.4% usage rate without Brown. It is hard to argue that for cash but I think there are plenty of strong pivots for GPP.

Nets – We’re going to see the return of Kevin Durant and without the other big guns in the lineup, KD has had 1.61 FPPM but we need to see what kind of minutes he can play before deciding. If he’s at 30-32, that would make him a great play.

Raptors – The status of Fred VanVleet and OG Anunoby are big pieces to the puzzle tonight as we’ve seen series Toronto chalk without them in the past couple of slates.

Heat – They played last night so this could be a game where someone sits out.

You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life

3 years ago 0 comments

NHL

NHL DFS Between the Benches for DraftKings and FanDuel (Mar. 2)

Allan Fabrykant 3 years ago

written by Allan Fabrykant

Welcome back everyone to another edition of WinDaily’s Between the Benches! This morning we have four games that all have intriguing pieces for us to use in tonight’s builds. A few immediately caught my eye, so let’s dig right into it! For tonight’s 3/2 NHL slate, the slate begins at 7:30 pm ET. Don’t forget to lock your lines and check the discord for any updates! Let’s get into it!

3/2 NHL Stack Report

1. Nashville Predators 1
Duchene – Granlund – Forsberg (FanDuel: $20,300 | DraftKings: $14,500)
– Let’s start off with what I see as one of the big mismatches of the night. Offensively, the Preds have been rather middle of the pack, with the main flashes of brilliance coming from winger Filip Forsberg. The Kraken on the other hand have really had a season to forget as they sit near the bottom of the league and are woefully underperforming even to the standards of their harshest critics. Despite a very low shot on goal against rate, they allow an incredibly high amount of goals against at 3.55, the only way to properly explain that is that their goaltending just hasn’t been up to par and that even though the Kraken D may have done some good work in limiting chances, the Kraken goalies always give up a couple of cheap ones with the few opportunities that the opposing team are afforded. With that level of play, it’s no surprise that the Kraken are currently on a big downward spiral dropping their last seven games. All three of Nashville’s top liners play on the Preds top power-play unit and as far as pricing goes the Preds top guys are priced very reasonably, especially compared to the second team on our radar.
Ideal Defensive Partner(s): Roman Josi (FD: $7,000 | DK: $7,200)

2. Toronto Maple Leafs 1
Marner – Matthews – Bunting (FanDuel: $25,100 | DraftKings: $22,000)
– Here we are… the Leafs are the biggest favourites on the slate and its really not even close. Their implied total is set at an astronomical 4.5 and are listed as -430 favourites. It’s very clear what the bookies are projecting for this one. I have no reason to disagree with them, the Leafs have been on quite a run lately, scoring insanely high amounts of goals (including a combined 17 goal game two games ago!) and having those goals fairly concentrated among the top liners. Over their last three games, this line has put together 22 points amongst themselves. That’s unreal and given the mismatch on display tonight, I can only see those numbers improving. Defensively, the Sabres have huge liabilities being near rock bottom in the league in both goals allowed and shots on goal allowed. Craig Anderson who is set to start for the Sabres has also been coughing up over 3 goals a game this season and the Sabres themselves currently sit at the wrong end of a six-game losing streak. Thankfully, all three of the Leafs’ top liners see Power-play time with Matthews and Marner on the first unit and Bunting on the second unit. The only concern in playing this line is the price, I would recommend having a couple of pieces in your lineup and not investing most of your salary into one line, but momentum is on the Leafs’ side, scoring ability is on the Leafs’ side and the stats are on the Leafs” side… not much else to say about this line.

Ideal Defensive Partner(s): Morgan Rielly (FD: $6,200 | DK: $5,800)

Honorable Mentions in order: DAL1 (Pavelski-Hintz-Robertson), STL1 (Perron-O’Reilly-Saad)

BOOKIE BET OF THE NIGHT: OVER 6.5 TOR/BUF

– Well even though Toronto has a shot at cracking the over by themselves, neither side are fielding good starting goalies and we could see a situation where the Sabres manage to bag a few on the Leafs back up goalie (I doubt we’ll see another 17-goal barn burner though)

Honorable Mention(s): NSH -180 on the Moneyline

3/2 NHL Goalie Tracker

Best (Goalies to Roster)

Ville Husso (FD: $7,700 | DK: $7,800)
Juuse Saros (FD: $8,200 | DK: $8,000)
Honorable Mention(s): Jake Oettinger

Worst (Goalies to Target)

Philipp Grubauer (FD: $7,100 | DK: $7,400)
Honorable Mention(s): Craig Anderson

3/2 NHL Wild Card Targets

Justin Holl (FD: $4,900 | DK: $2,700)
– It’s very rare that I’d list a defenseman in the Wild Card slot but here we are. We’ve already discussed why the Leafs, in general, are a good play tonight but many may overlook the young defenseman as he has some struggles earlier on in the season. Since then he’s really been able to fine-tune his game and over his last few games, he has been an absolute monster. He’s registered 7 points over his last four games with five points coming over his last two games and on top of that, he’s starting to creep around 20 minutes of ice time a game. Holl’s price has raised a bit on FanDuel but he is still a solid value play, especially in tonight’s mismatch against the Buffalo Sabres.
Honorable Mention(s): Tage Thompson-Alex Tuch, Peyton Krebs-Casey Fitzgerald, Jordan Eberle, Viktor Arvidsson, Jordan Kyrou

Core Four: (ALWAYS BE STACKIN’)

Centre – Auston Matthews

Winger – Filip Forsberg

Defence – Justin Holl

Goalie – Ville Husso

3/2 NHL Monkey Knife Fight NHL Prop Picks – Win With These Picks Here and Get 100 Percent Bonus!

All Day Slate Putting Up Points

Honorable Mention(s): Rapidfire 2/2

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3 years ago 0 comments

PGA Premium

Tee 2 Green PGA DFS Picks: Arnold Palmer Invitational

brucegray19722@gmail.com 3 years ago

written by brucegray19722@gmail.com

Win Daily Nation! I hope everyone is doing well out there, and if you haven’t had a chance to yet, please give a listen to both the Bettor Golf Podcast that I host with Nick Bretwisch, as well as the PGA Draftcast that I do with Sia Nejad and Joel Schreck. I am extremely proud of those shows, and a listen goes a long way for us to grow the brand!

DraftKings Players ($10,000+)

Rory McIlroy ($11,100) – I know nearly 20 percent of users are projected to select Rory McIlroy this weekend at the API, but I am marginally surprised it is not higher when we look at his course history of five straight top-10 results since 2017. McIlroy is one of only four players (the other three being Hovland, Rahm and Hideki) that rank inside the top-20 of every statistical metric I attached a weight, and while I get the recent approach form might provide some concerns, the 66% of second shots that take place beyond 150 yards at the track help place him sixth in my model.

Viktor Hovland ($10,800) – I assume everyone has caught up and watched the ‘PGA Draftcast’ this week, but I can’t tell you how badly I wanted to start my build with Rory McIlroy and Viktor Hovland. I have some trepidation with my last selection of Thomas Pieters, but in a different world, I do think moving Sungjae Im to Hovland and Pieters down to Trey Mullinax is certainly a viable strategy. Hovland has struggled (by his standards) at this track over his three attempts, failing to post a top-40 result, but the finishes are not quite as shaky when you dive a little deeper into the numbers. The Norweigan entered Saturday inside the top-five last year before blowing up, and a similar sentiment can be said for him in 2020 – an event that saw him fall out of the top-15 on Sunday.

Other Consideration – All five golfers rank inside the top-six of my model. It is hard to find many faults with the group.

$9,000 Range

Sungjae Im ($9,900) – Pricing is excellent across the board this week. I hate that it is the case because it makes the DFS slate much more challenging to get an edge, but we don’t have to look any further than 19 of the top-20 golfers on the odds board managing to grade inside the top-23 names on my model. I always note this factor, but I don’t run my numbers to look at pricing for the week, so it means something when I am in such alignment with all other markets. With all that being said, the one name that I will find myself higher on than most users will be Sungjae Im, who has an ideal bounce-back spot in front of him at the API. Sungjae ranks next to Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler and Viktor Hovland as the only players in this field inside the top-10 of my model in both weighted tee-to-green and total driving, and he also grades a stout 10th in weighted par-five scoring. McIlroy and Hovland will be my preferred choices up top, but it will be Im that carries my primary exposure in the $9,000 range.

Other Targets: I’d monitor ownership, but there is a ton of popularity in this range.

$8,000 Range

Sergio Garcia ($8,100) – As you can tell, I am condensing most of these ranges to feature my favorite few targets of the group for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. I don’t think it is that helpful to list a ton of names when most of the popular picks for the event are likely solid plays. You will not hear me pleading my case as often this week that the chalk needs to be faded, but I do like a potential contrarian pivot in the $8,000 zone to Sergio Garcia – a golfer that hasn’t played this tournament in nearly 10 years but has the exact statistical makeup that you would hope to find for a potential winner. Garcia ranks inside the top-seven in this field for weighted par-five scoring and total driving, and I anticipate that we see him at sub-six percent when all is said and done.

Other Thoughts: Sam Burns ($8,800) – GPP Only. Max Homa ($8,700), Jason Kokrak ($8,400), Paul Casey ($8,300) and Keith Mitchell ($8,100) will all be in my pool.

$7,000 Range

I am going to rapid-fire through some $7,000 golfers to present a handful of choices for everyone reading.

Jason Day ($7,900) – We are back at the site of DAYYYYYY’s infamous Disney World trip in 2019. The Australian is providing solid contrarian numbers for those in GPP contests, and the course history has been great when he hasn’t decided to set records on the ‘Space Ranger’ ride.

Justin Rose ($7,700) – Rose is one of the better difficult course players in the world, and it shouldn’t hurt matters that he ranks inside the top-10 in weighted proximity over 150 yards.

Corey Conners ($7,600) – Ignore the recent results for Corey Conners! I was recommending him as a fade during those contests because of the awkward fit for his game, and we now get a venue that accentuates his total driving.

Seamus Power ($7,600) – My thought process behind Corey Conners is similar to Seamus Power. Consider this an appealing spot to get unique, although I will mention that I thought he would find better success than he did at the Genesis Invitational and Waste Management.

Keegan Bradley ($7,300) – Bradley is fifth in my model when it comes to weighted tee-to-green, and we have seen him find success at tests like this in the past where you don’t need to make as many putts. The American hasn’t missed a cut at the venue in his last nine trips, producing three top-10s.

Additional Thoughts: Luke List ($7,500), Cameron Young ($7,500), Erik Van Rooyen ($7,400), Kevin Na ($7,400), Si Woo Kim ($7,300), Lanto Griffin ($7,100), Sahith Theegala $7,000, Thomas Pieters ($7,000) – GPP only. Tons of risk and upside.

$6,000 Range

Additional Dart Throws To Consider: Carlos Ortiz ($6,900), Adam Svensson ($6,700), Garrick Higgo ($6,700), Cameron Davis ($6,600), Alex Smalley ($6,400), Charles Howell III ($6,400), Doug Ghim ($6,300), Trey Mullinax ($6,200).

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3 years ago 0 comments

NBA Premium

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 3/2

Adam Strangis 3 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 3/2

At first glance, this is a bit of a puzzle for an eight-game slate. There are some good environments but the blowout risk is real for multiple games that feature some of the most appealing teams. Let’s get right to work in the NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 3/2 and figure out what looks like the primary targets tonight!

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

Kings at Pelicans

Kings – This game is going to be high-paced as Sacramento is still in the top 10 in pace and both of these teams are in the bottom 12 in defensive rating. De’Aaron Fox has found his offensive game lately with at least 18 shots in every game since the trade deadline. We should be interested in him tonight as he could face some of C.J. McCollum’s defense and he’s been one of the worst defenders via defensive rating on the season (over 116.0). The assists have finally started to roll in with 20 over the past two games and since February 8th when he returned, he’s averaging 11.6 potential assists per game. We all love Domantas Sabonis and the Pelicans are just 16th in points allowed in the paint. Lastly, keep an eye on Trey Lyles. He started the last game and played 30 minutes and produced 34.5 DK points. Granted, he shot 10-14 and that’s not reliable but he’s still a strong value play if starting again.

Pelicans – They’re getting a little bit harder to play at this point, although McCollum and Brandon Ingram are the top two targets. Since McCollum has been a Pelican, he’s averaging 1.32 FPPM and a 28.3% usage rate but the true shooting rate is 62.2%, which has to come down at some point. On the flip side, Ingram is at a 26.5% usage rate and 0.96 FPPM with a 51.8% TS and he’s at 54.4% on the season. Both guys have the law of averages coming for them so from a salary perspective, Ingram is a very appealing option and he’s not under $8,000 very often. The only issue with these two and Jonas Valanciunas could be the “Timberwolves Syndrome”. That means when the big three are all active, the ceiling could be capped on all of them around 45-50 DK points. That doesn’t make them awful plays, but you may not be in store for a giant 6x game.

Thunder at Nuggets

Thunder – It’s another Shai Gilgeous-Alexander night and he is very expensive with a lower floor than most would think. However, it has to be pointed out just how much of this offense is on him when Josh Giddey and Lu Dort are out (among others). The sample is just 120 minutes but he’s sporting a massive 1.70 FPPM, a 36.1% usage rate, and a 38.8% assist rate. For some context, Nikola Jokic on the other side of this game is at 1.75 FPPM. The easiest way for SGA to flop is for him to struggle to score because the TS is an absurd 68.3% in the 120-minute sample. That can’t hold forever but he’s got to the line a combined 26 times in the past two games and this man scored 37 points on just 16 attempts in the last game. That was with Davion Mitchell harassing him in that game and Denver simply doesn’t have that caliber of defender on the perimeter. I’m mostly avoiding the group of Tre Mann, Darius Bazley, and others but Aleksej Pokusevski continues to be a GPP target. His range of outcomes is wide but he’s consistently shown a ceiling over 30 DK and the Thunder are very short-handed tonight.

Nuggets – The reigning, defending MVP takes on one of the worst frontcourts in basketball tonight. There are other studs in play, but Jokic is surely one of them and we saw just how dominant he was last time while scoring eight points. There are very few players who can score 49.5 DK while taking five shots all game.

Honorable Mention

Blazers at Suns

Teams To Monitor

76ers – I’m just leaving a note that I will prefer James Harden to Joel Embiid as of now for Philly. Biid will likely score more raw points but he’s not the triple-double threat that the suddenly very spry-looking Harden is. I’ll take my chances that Harden keeps the scoring close and vaults Embiid on rebounds and assists. On the flip side of this game, Immanuel Quickley could be a value but I’m not sure I trust the Knicks to get him minutes. He only played 26 last game, which isn’t bad but can we see this young guy on the court??

Pacers – Malcolm Brogdon will return after sitting out for a back-to-back set and even with Tyrese Haliburton, Brogdon is affordable against the defensively deficient Magic.

Heat – They will be without Kyle Lowry again so Gabe Vincent is still far too cheap. He played 32 minutes without Lowry in the last game and the Heat and Bucks are first and second in 3-point frequency allowed. Vincent is shooting 37.8% on the season and Jimmy Butler is still under $9,500. He’s had 1.29 FPPM without Lowry on the season.

You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life

3 years ago 0 comments

NBA Premium

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 03/01

DFSGhost 3 years ago

written by DFSGhost

This. Is. March. All eyes with turn to the madness in college basketball as we near my favorite event in sports, but there is still plenty of action to be had in the NBA as well. It’s a Taco Tuesday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

Brooklyn Nets @ Toronto Raptors (-8.5)

While most ignored this game on yesterday’s NBA slate until Fred VanVleet was eventually ruled out with the predicted knee soreness, we were all over it from the beginning. I see no reason to dodge it now on the second half of a back-to-back, but I do believe VanVleet makes his return to the lineup tonight, barring any setbacks at morning shootaround. Nonetheless, the trio of VanVleet/Siakam/Barnes remain underpriced on both sites tonight, with the latter two flashing their defensive upside versus a turnover prone Brooklyn offense that can be exposed in transition.

Similarly to what I preached on yesterday’s NBA slate, I am not forcing a run back with my Toronto exposure. In the end, it worked out beautifully, as the Nets simply could not keep up in a 36-point losing effort. However, the trio of Bruce Brown, Cam Thomas, and Patty Mills would be my choices, if going there. Specifically, Mills is somewhat that can be ice cold from the field and has a low floor when it comes to DFS production, but if you want to beat Toronto’s zone, it’s with perimeter shooting. The Nets shot a disastrous 38% from the field last night, including 34% from deep, where Mills went 1-8 from the field and 1-6 from deep, but if he heats up, it could lead to him being a key factor on this slate.

LA Clippers @ Houston Rockets (+7)

The third meeting between these two teams in as many days should be no different from the previous two: fast, turnovers, little-to-no defense. It’s exactly what we want in NBA DFS, and this game will have plenty of it.

With Paul George, Kawhi Leonard, and Norman Powell all out for the Clippers, there are a ton of touches to go around on offense. While we are potentially looking at 8-9 players getting 15+ minutes for the Clippers tonight, their ceilings remain low, but it’s all about getting exposure to the right ones: Reggie Jackson leads the charge on offense with a 31% usage rate in the absence of George, Leonard, and Powell, but I can’t stomach an $8,200 tag for him; the duo of Terance Mann and Luke Kennard are streaky, but I give them the edge over veterans like Batum and Covington.

On the Rockets side of the ball, the status of Kevin Porter Jr. remains key to our Houston exposure. Should he be in, he’s a great fit at an affordable tag with a 23.5% usage rate this season. Should he be ruled out, one of, if not the highest rostered player on this NBA slate will be none other than Dennis Schroder, who has a 23.1% usage rate in three starts for the Rockets this season, where he’s posted a 14.3/5.7/9.3 scoring line on 33.3% shooting. Elsewhere, despite his struggles versus the Clippers this season, Christian Wood is in a good spot versus an LA team that ranks 25th in points allowed in the paint per game.

Honorable Mentions:

Golden State Warriors @ Minnesota Timberwolves (+1)
Dallas Mavericks @ LA Lakers (+5.5)

You can find us on Twitter @BetsByGhost and @Bucn4life

3 years ago 0 comments

PGA Premium

Arnold Palmer Invitational: Initial Picks

Sia 3 years ago

written by Sia

The PGA Tour travels to Orlando this week for another installment of the Florida Swing. This course certainly caters to bombers and long iron players, but don’t be fooled, all kinds of styles have fared well here over the years and even the shorter players can get it done if they are precise with their ball striking. This week my focus is on the usual suspects including a heavy emphasis on OTT and APP, but I will also focus on driving accuracy, Par 5 scoring, Prox 200+ and whatever else @TeeOffSports tells me to focus on during our PGA Draftcast at 8:00 Tuesday night. Make sure you tune into that show, read all of our articles and get into our Discord. The family has been red-hot and we plan to keep it rolling. Now let’s get to the the picks for the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

Rory McIlroy (11400) – Everyone in this range is a great option and I go back and forth between Rory and Rahm as the best option, but Rahm has never played here and Rory’s history is too good to overlook. Rory’s metrics aren’t great considering his price, particularly on APP, but he just seems to be incredibly comfortable here.

Hideki Matsuyama (10300) – Often overlooked and always underappreciated, Deki could be an interesting pivot off of the two big names at the top. His finishing positions haven’t been outstanding, but that’s mostly due to some very bad putting and his putter has started to improve, ever so slightly. Could be a good mix for a big win at slightly lower ownership than the big boys up top.

Marc Leishman (9100) – Not inlove with this range as it turns out, but there are plenty of names to consider including Sungjae, Zal and Fitz. My favorite option is the lower priced and likely lower owned Marc Leishman. His metrics over the last couple of months have been very good and his history is great as well.

Talor Gooch (8600) – A little scary to roster a guy who lost almost 9 strokes his last time out at The Genesis,, but I prefer to chalk that up to a random event as his play prior to the Genesis was elite (other than a questionable putter). I expect him to put it in play OTT and to comfortably hit greens on APP. A tourney play only this week for me.

Jason Kokrak (8400) – Not rating out particularly well in my model, but I still think there is value here at this price. Kokrak has plenty of upside (along with some MC equity) and I like his history here and recent history. He’s got an 8th, 18th and 10th over his last three efforts at The Arnold Palmer.

Keith Mitchell (8100) – He could get himself into trouble if he doesn’t find enough fairways as the rough here will be penal, but I’m playing the value and upside here, and he’s proven to have both with finishing positions of 43rd, 5th and 6th over his last three. The recent history is very good as well.

Maverick McNealy (7800) – Feels like he’s fallen off people’s radar lately in spite of some great finishes, including a Top 10 at The Genesis. His history at the Arnold Palmer isn’t great, but he feels like a much better golfer now than he was the last couple of years. He’s Top 10 over the last 24 rounds in SG Par 5 and Prox 200+ and he’s inside the Top 50 OTT, APP and ARG. He’s been a great putter lately as well.

Cameron Young (7500) – There is plenty to like right in this precise mid-7k range including Seamus Power, EVR and Chris Kirk, but I’ve decided, for now, to tail the upside of Cameron Young who must have missed the memo that you’re not supposed to dominate the tour as a relative unknown. He’s been elite OTT lately and reasonably consistent on APP. The ARG is a problem spot but when he loses there it’s typically minimal. I don’t mind being late on Young.

Tom Hoge (7300) – Price is simply too low here as Hoge has gained BS in 11 of the last 12 tournaments and we know the PUTT can get hot. He’s proven he has upside and I think he’s deserving of being priced in the upper 7k range. I think there is value in rostering Sepp Straka at 7300 as well.

Lee Hodges (6600) – A potential riser who has shown he can play with the big boys. His BS has been great as of late and the only weak spot appears to be the PUTT. If you need to dip down into this range, I like Hodges, Svensson and Rai as of now.

Secret Weapon – 49-17. See you in Discord.

Be sure to get in our Discord, watch our PGA Draftcast LIVE show tomorrow night and sign up for all things Win Daily as we are bringing you all the DFS for all the sports you can imagine. Further, make sure you check out Sharp as the bets continue to roll through.

3 years ago 0 comments

NBA Premium

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 02/28

DFSGhost 3 years ago

written by DFSGhost

In today’s NBA action, a few teams are on the second half of a back-to-back, while others are dealing with short rotations in the last stretch of the season. Every game counts with playoff seeding and positions on the line, and tonight’s games are loaded with some of the best stars in the league. It’s a Mojito Monday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

Toronto Raptors @ Brooklyn Nets (+3.5)

Don’t let Toronto’s last two games distract you from the fact that they are in one of the best game environments on this NBA slate. The trio of VanVleet, Siakam, and Barnes are all wildly underpriced tonight, whereby Gary Trent Jr. becomes an elite target should VanVleet sit this one out with knee soreness. With Brooklyn sitting 11th in pace and 21st in defensive rating, the absence of Kyrie Irving at home will put this offense in a vulnerable position against Toronto’s zone defense, where the Raptors will thrive in transition.

On the Nets side of the ball, Seth Curry will take the reigns as the primary ball handler tonight, where he has sported a 24.2% usage rate and has a 1.03 FPPM in a 100+ minute sample size thus far. The Nets will be limited with offensive options in the absence of Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant, and while both Bruce Brown and Cam Thomas make for intriguing targets, I’m not forcing a back and forth in this game, rather, I’m prioritizing underpriced Raptors.

Chicago Bulls @ Miami Heat (-4.5)

Despite having a lofty 225.5 total, this game has the third lowest total on the board, but it should not be flying under the radar as it is right now. While it’d be easy for me to explain how much exposure we need to the track meet that is Charlotte @ Milwaukee, truthfully, there will be so many players rostered in that game that this Chicago/Miami game takes precedence for me. The key? Key usage amongst the star players in it – one of the most importance factors in NBA DFS.

What’s to say about DeMar DeRozan with a fourth of the NBA season left to go? The Bulls’ MVP now has 30+ points in ten straight games, where he’s sported a 36.4% usage rate and has posted a ridiculous 36.9/5.8/5.2 scoring line on 56.6% shooting. While most will flock to Giannis Antetokounmpo in the best game environment on the slate, there is a discussion to be had here since you can grab value pieces in that one, while you cannot do the opposite for this game.

Meanwhile, the Miami Heat have a ton to offer tonight as well and you know exactly where the production is coming from; not only from the Heat, but from this game entirely. With Kyle Lowry (personal) out tonight, Jimmy Butler will be a prime target at a coveted position in NBA DFS, while Tyler Herro, who leads the Heat in usage rate this season despite coming off the bench, will be crucial as a primary ball handler against a Bulls perimeter defense that is still missing Lonzo Ball. If you need value, look for a combination of Gabe Vincent, Max Strus, and Caleb Martin (achilles) to earn extra playing time.

Honorable Mentions:

Charlotte Hornets @ Milwaukee Bucks (-10)
San Antonio Spurs @ Memphis Grizzlies (-8.5)

You can find us on Twitter @BetsByGhost and @Bucn4life

3 years ago 0 comments

NHL

NHL DFS Between the Benches for DraftKings and FanDuel (Feb. 27)

Allan Fabrykant 3 years ago

written by Allan Fabrykant

Welcome, everyone! We’re back with a brand new Sunday Night Win Daily NHL Article! We have a couple of different main slates so I’ll recommend lines that work for both sites. Let’s keep up the momentum and let’s get some takedowns tonight! Get ready for the newest edition of WinDaily’s Between the Benches! For tonight’s 2/27 NHL slate, as mentioned, we have a smaller five gamer and the slate begins at 6:00 pm ET (1:00 pm ET on DK). Don’t forget to lock your lines and check the discord for any updates! Let’s get right into it!

2/27 NHL Stack Report

1. San Jose Sharks 1
Meier – Hertl – Barabanov (FanDuel: $20,700 | DraftKings: $15,800)
– Tonight’s late hammer is carrying a lot of value in their top line as aside from Meier who is priced extremely high, San Jose’s top line has been impressive, compared to the rest of the lineup who have been severely lacking (with one exception). Seattle has been on quite the downward spiral as of late too. They have dropped their last six game and in many of these games they gave up around 5-6 goals. San Jose’s main draw tonight is definitely their matchup. Seattle has not been good on either end of the puck ranking 27th in the league in both goals scored and goals allowed while having one of the worst shots on goal average in the entire league at 28.1. San Jose is coming into the second half of a back but if it weren’t for that, I can’t imagine the bookies having this one as close as they do. San Jose is still slightly favoured but given the weak play of their opponents lately, coupled with the point production of their top unit, the San Jose Sharks are a good place to start your GPP builds on both sites.
Ideal Defensive Partner(s): Brent Burns (FD: $6,600 | DK: $6,000)

2. New York Islanders 1
Palmieri – Barzal – Parise (FanDuel: $15,000 | DraftKings: $11,700)
– This line is way too cheap, especially on DraftKings where two of the top liners are in the $3,000 range, that’s simply unbelievable, especially against a team in the Ducks who notoriously struggle on the defensive end of the ice. The Islanders are not the most offensively gifted team but Anaheim does give up a lot of good looks and allows shots on goal at an unacceptable rate. On average, Anaheim allows over 33 shots on goal against per game, while nearly giving up three goals a game. With the way they’ve been playing right now, it’s the Islanders top line who are going to benefit from Anaheim’s defensive lapses. The great thing about this line is the versatility, they work as a full line stack, a two-man and they can be easily paired with a defenseman. On top of that, the price of these guys will really help alleviate some of the heavy price tags on the higher priced lines, such as Pittsburgh’s top line.
Ideal Defensive Partner(s): Noah Dobson (FD: $6,200 | DK: $5,800)

Honorable Mention(s): WPG1 (Stastny-Scheifele-Wheeler), DAL1 (Robertson-Hintz-Pavelski), STL1 (Saad-O’Reilly-Perron), PIT1 (Rust-Crosby-Guentzel) (MAIN CASH LINE PIT1)

2/27 NHL Goalie Tracker

Best (Goalies to Roster)

Ilya Sorokin (FD: $7,600 | DK: $7,700)
Igor Shesterkin (FD: $8,600 | DK: $8,000)
Honorable Mention(s): Zach Sawchenko, Connor Hellebuyck

Worst (Goalies to Target)

Philipp Grubauer (FD: $7,100 | DK: $7,500)
Honorable Mention(s): Elvis Merzlikins

2/27 NHL Wild Card Targets

Logan Couture (FD: $6,600 | DK: $5,100)
– With 5 points out of his last five games (4 goals, 1 assist), Couture has been the only major contributor on the Sharks who isn’t on the top line. Couture has been consistently effective as of late and has regularly seen time on San Jose’s top power play unit. Despite a slight price increase on FanDuel, he is still fairly priced on DraftKings and all the same points we made about Seattle’s defensive weakness’ still apply to having some shares of Couture tonight. He can work as a one off but I prefer him in a mini-stack with defenseman Brent Burns.
Honorable Mention(s): Brady Skjei, Zach Hyman, Martin Necas, Tage Thompson, Bryan Rust

Core Four: (ALWAYS BE STACKIN’)

Center – Matt Barzal

Winger – Timo Meier

Defenseman – Noah Dobson

Goalie – Ilya Sorokin (Connor Hellebuyck works on DK)

2/27 NHL Monkey Knife Fight NHL Prop Picks – Win With These Picks Here and Get 100 Percent Bonus!

Honorable Mention(s): All Day Rapidfire 2/2

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3 years ago 0 comments

NBA Premium

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 02/27

Adam Strangis 3 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 02/27

We have another five games tonight and these kinds of slates tend to be a favorite because it is much harder to get overwhelmed with options. It’s easier to be focused and not feel like you’re missing anyone but there are some very strong game environments again tonight. We’ve got plenty of studs to pick from in the NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 02/27 so let’s get right to work to find out paths!

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

Clippers at Rockets

Clippers – If the last Rockets game was any indication, the Clips will very likely be chalky and I’m more than willing to run with the field on that for most guys. These teams played each other right before the break and Reggie Jackson feels expensive to me, but he does lead the team with a 29.9% usage rate without Paul George and Kawhi Leonard. He’s absolutely in play but it could be more cash and possibly risk fading him in GPP. My main two players would be Terrance Mann and Luke Kennard. Mann is in my sights since he can do a little bit of everything as far as scoring, assists, and rebounds and he could even sneak in a double-double like last game. As of Kennard, the salary is getting toward the upper limit but the Rockets are 10th in frequency allowed from deep and Kennard is now over 45% from beyond the arc this year. Both Marcus Morris and Ivica Zubac are on the fringes as well as Zubac should be needed to deal with the size of Christian Wood and Alperen Sengun.

Rockets – The interest in the Rockets are going to be dictated by the status of Kevin Porter Jr. as he is questionable for tonight’s game. If he’s out, that gives a nice bump to Jalen Green and Dennis Schroeder who will share a lot of the work in the backcourt. In addition, Wood sees a usage rate bump of 2% and he climbs up to 26.1% so he would be in play as well. Wood is someone I struggle with when he’s over $8,000 since this is a player that doesn’t even average 38 DK points but he does have a ceiling, so perhaps this is a GPP-only play. If Porter is active, he and Green would be my favorites as they can pick on the Clippers perimeter defense a little bit. Both teams are in the top half of the league as far as pace and we all know what the Rockets bring to the table for the game environment.

Pistons at Hornets

Pistons – Typically the Pistons aren’t much of a thought but that changes pretty quickly when they face the Hornets. Charlotte is basically a carbon copy in defensive rating and pace as the Rockets are and they tend to pull big games out of their opponents. Cade Cunningham is very affordable for his ceiling although he’s a very volatile player. The true shooting for the season is just 48.8% but his usage is 27%, exactly what we’re looking for against the Hornets. His assist rate also leads the team at 27.2% so there is upside all around but I would be hesitant to play him in cash games on DK. Isaiah Stewart is very cheap and it should be noted he scored 36 DK against these Hornets earlier in the month, although that’s not the main reason you play him. Stewart is 14th in paint touches this season and Charlotte is still 29th in points and rebounds allowed in the paint on the year. I’m going to be tempted by Jerami Grant but he’s under 1.00 FPPM at this juncture of the season.

Hornets – You might think that this is a clash of sales but Detroit is 12th in pace, which could lead to a major up-and-down game here. The good news is both teams are in the bottom eight in defensive rating as well so there is plenty to like from the Charlotte side. Montrezl Harrell is the new hotness as it were and his salary is getting up there but he can touch 40 DK in a hurry. Detroit is only 10th in points allowed in the paint but they are 21st in rebounds and Trez leads the league in points scored from putbacks. If Trez is too rich, Mason Plumlee could be a cheaper substitute but has his own risks as well. Finally, LaMelo Ball has one of the highest ceilings on the slate but he also is one of the harder players to pin down on any given night. His minutes have been more secure since the Hornets traded Ish Smith so that does help and he’s driving to the hoop 14.2 times per game.

Honorable Mention – Pelicans at Lakers

Teams To Monitor

Nuggets – It’s a back-to-back for Nikola Jokić but he sees virtually no change in his stats in his eight games on zero days rest. There is nobody on the interior for the Trail Blazers that should give Jokic any kind of resistance.

You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life

3 years ago 0 comments

Newer Posts

Older Posts

DraftKings

3/3 NHL Main Slate of Games – Beginning 7 p.m. ET

3/3 NHL Favorite Lines Per Dollar

Top Line – Calgary One “Matthew Tkachuk, Elias Lindholm, Johnny Gaudreau”

Secondary Line – Colorado One “Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen, Andre Burakovsky”

3/3 NHL Honorable Mention: Calgary Two “Andrew Mangiapane, Mikael Backlund, Blake Coleman”

Top Defender

Top Goalie

3/3 NHL Best Bet

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 3/3

Kings at Spurs

Bulls at Hawks

Honorable Mention

Teams To Monitor

3/2 NHL Monkey Knife Fight NHL Prop Picks – Win With These Picks Here and Get 100 Percent Bonus!

DraftKings Players ($10,000+)

Other Consideration – All five golfers rank inside the top-six of my model. It is hard to find many faults with the group.

$9,000 Range

Other Targets: I’d monitor ownership, but there is a ton of popularity in this range.

$8,000 Range

Other Thoughts: Sam Burns ($8,800) – GPP Only. Max Homa ($8,700), Jason Kokrak ($8,400), Paul Casey ($8,300) and Keith Mitchell ($8,100) will all be in my pool.

$7,000 Range

Additional Thoughts: Luke List ($7,500), Cameron Young ($7,500), Erik Van Rooyen ($7,400), Kevin Na ($7,400), Si Woo Kim ($7,300), Lanto Griffin ($7,100), Sahith Theegala $7,000, Thomas Pieters ($7,000) – GPP only. Tons of risk and upside.

$6,000 Range

Additional Dart Throws To Consider: Carlos Ortiz ($6,900), Adam Svensson ($6,700), Garrick Higgo ($6,700), Cameron Davis ($6,600), Alex Smalley ($6,400), Charles Howell III ($6,400), Doug Ghim ($6,300), Trey Mullinax ($6,200).

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 3/2

Kings at Pelicans

Thunder at Nuggets

Teams To Monitor

Brooklyn Nets @ Toronto Raptors (-8.5)

LA Clippers @ Houston Rockets (+7)

Toronto Raptors @ Brooklyn Nets (+3.5)

Chicago Bulls @ Miami Heat (-4.5)

2/27 NHL Monkey Knife Fight NHL Prop Picks – Win With These Picks Here and Get 100 Percent Bonus!

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 02/27

Clippers at Rockets

Pistons at Hornets

Teams To Monitor

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