NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 3/9
One of the first things that jump out on this slate is the size as we have 12 games. We’re going to have to eliminate some of these games and pretend they don’t exist. The second is there is likely to be some value since we have seven teams on the second leg of a back-to-back situation. Lastly, there are a lot of teams that need wins for the playoff race so we can expect the best effort from the majority of squads in NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 3/9!
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Thunder vs Timberwolves
Thunder – Normally, I’d be slightly on alert that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander could sit but the Thunder are still projected to be very short-handed. Since the last game that Josh Giddey played for the Thunder, SGA has 210 minutes on the court (not counting his 70+ DK game last night) and he’s been on a tear with 1.57 FPPM, a 36.5% usage rate, and a 32.5% assist rate. The Wolves have taken over the number one spot for pace and the Thunder are 12th, so this game should go back and forth. No player drives to the hoop more than SGA at 23.9 times per game and he’s scoring 14 points per game from that play, 0.8 behind Ja Morant for the lead. Minnesota is allowing a FG% of 62% from within five feet so this is another strong spot for SGA. Provided Isaiah Roby plays (he played last night but was questionable with a back issue), he’s a strong play and would be needed to combat Minnesota’s size. In the same time span of SGA, Roby has 1.11 FPPM across 143 minutes and the salary doesn’t match the potential ceiling. No other player has cleared 1.00 FPPM so my exposure is very concentrated here, with the only possible exception being Alexsej Pokusevski. Flirting with $6,000 isn’t the most ideal spot, however.
Wolves – We’ll need more information here as both Anthony Edwards and D’Angelo Russell are questionable and neither played in the last game. With Edwards being out for multiple games at this point, that trend could continue tonight and if it does, we have to be looking at Karl-Anthony Towns. He wrecked the Trail Blazers last game for 51 DK in just 24 minutes as that game was way out of control in the first quarter. On the season, KAT is at 1.58 FPPM and a 31.8% usage rate and the OKC frontcourt is nonexistent. Towns can take advantage of them ranking 30th in rebounds allowed in the paint and in the bottom half of the league in points allowed in the paint. Patrick Beverly and Malik Beasley would enter the conversation (among others) for Minnesota pending the news we need during the day. Even though Minnesota needs to keep winning, they should be able to handle the Thunder with KAT being the focal point.
Hawks at Bucks
Hawks – We śaw Bogdan Bogdanovic enter the starting lineup in the past game for the Hawks but that was because Kevin Huerter was missing and he is probable. With Bogdanovic sitting at almost $7,000, we should be a little bit careful with that. I will grant that Milwaukee is in the bottom three in 3-point frequency allowed but that’s a hefty price. Instead, we should likely stick with Trae Young who couldn’t hit anything in the last game, going 5-20 from the field. That’s obviously an aberration and they need Young to be at his best tonight. Atlanta is 10th in the East and is running out of time to make a move (not to mention they only lead 11th by 1.5 games). Young can exploit the weakness from 3-point distance as well and Milwaukee is only 11th in points allowed in the paint. In the last game they played, Young got the Bucks for 55 Dk on just 17 shot attempts. Clint Capela and John Collins are on the fringe with Collins being simply a salary play. He’s almost never $6,000 and his matchup could conceivably get better in this game.
Bucks – This game could change drastically for both teams because this is a spot where it’s easy to see Giannis Antetokounmpo sit out. The Bucks are currently in the top three in the East and Giannis played 28 minutes last night. That’s not overwhelming but it’s still getting to the point where it makes some sense to get him rest. His health is paramount to them going deep into the playoffs and that not only puts the focus on Jrue Holiday, Khris Middleton, and Bobby Portis but it also takes their defensive rating down to 112.8. That’s bottom 10 in the league this season so the Hawks would look more appealing as well, especially the Young/Collins duo. If Giannis plays, it’s full steam ahead with him although I would prefer Nikola Jokic on the higher end of the spectrum. If Giannis does sit, I’d rank them Holiday, Portis, Middleton, and Jordan Nwora would project to be even chalkier than he likely is.
Lakers at Rockets
Lakers – I’m (perhaps wrongly) assuming LeBron James plays tonight. It was a shock to see him sit out the last game and simply put, they are way too close to the 10/11 seeding in the West for comfort. The only way the Lakers are winning games is for Bron to put them on his back and get after it with a 35% usage rate without Anthony Davis. We were reminded of the upside against the Warriors and the Rockets remain an elite team to target. The good news is the Lakers are so bad that they shouldn’t be a lock to blow out the Rockets either. Houston allows the most points in the paint so LeBron can bully his way there and they also allow a 3-point attempt 41.1% of the time and James has been shooting a lot more 3-pointers as well. Malik Monk could be an option and is appealing with or without LeBron but I’m not sure I can stomach Russell Westbrook again even if LeBron sits. It’s a big slate and even just in his range, Zach LaVine and RJ Barrett would be preferred.
Rockets – Another hinge play on this slate is Christian Wood. He was a late scratch in the last game for the Rockets and that opened Alperen Sengun to start and play 30 minutes. The result was average at 28.5 DK but remember the matchup, because Bam Adebayo and the Heat are WAY different than…well, the Lakers. If Wood is out, Sengun is a prime target and the same could be said for both Kevin Porter Jr. and Jalen Green. They both had average games this past time but again, matchups make the fight and the Lakers “defense” isn’t a real thing. We need information on Dennis Schroeder and Jae’Sean Tate here as well but the Rockets are all appealing to some degree. Even Wood if he’s active is too cheap for his upside.
Honorable Mention
Nuggets at Kings – Nikola Jokic made a statement in his past two games with a total of 170 DK points and two wins. The Kings just allowed over 80 points in a half to the Knicks and Julius Randle. He disappointed in this spot the last time but I’m not doubting Jokic anymore for any reason on any slate.
Teams To Monitor
Celtics – They should be fully healthy but Jaylen Brown and Robert Williams have my eye for tournaments. They are cheap for the potential upside and the Time Lord especially can wreck Charlotte up front if he plays 32 minutes or more. His props will be of particular interest to me when they are posted.
Pistons – With Isaiah Stewart out, Marvin Bagley has my attention in a big way as he played 36 minutes compared to 18 for Kelly Olynyk last game. Stewart only played nine minutes and it makes a ton of sense for Detroit to let Bagley off the leash and see what they can get from him.
Suns – The salaries are starting to get up there but both Cam Payne and Landry Shamet are appealing. No team allows a higher frequency of 3-point attempts than the Heat so Shamet and the 3-point ladder are well in play.
Pelicans – If Brandon Ingram remains out, it’s all aboard the CJ McCollum train who scored nearly 60 DK points last night in just 31 minutes. He shot well going 13-21 but he’s clearly the offense and back under $9,000. Jonas Valanciunas would be in a very interesting bounce-back spot as well against a much slower team and a much more vulnerable interior than the Grizzlies.
Blazers – Anfernee Simons is questionable and Brandon Williams scored 49 DK in 33 minutes in his last game. His salary rose to just $5,500 and even in a tougher matchup with the Jazz, he’d be hard to ignore if Simons can’t (isn’t allowed) to play.
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