DraftKings

MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 4/11

If you thought pitching was rough yesterday, I’m afraid I’ve got some bad news. We have another borderline ace that is priced a little too high, a few interesting arms in the mid-range, and not much else to write home about. That doesn’t mean we can’t find some plays worth chasing in the MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 4/11 so we can get into the green screens once again! 

Ace Tier 

Alek Manoah ($10,200 DK/$9,900 FD) 

Let’s start by saying that I’m not super likely to spend on the way up on Manoah in New York, but he’s one of the only pitchers with an ace salary. Manoah made his debut last season and pitched 114.1 innings with a K rate of 27.7%, a barrel rate under 6%, a swinging-strike rate of 12.6%, and a CSW of 28.2%. There is a significant amount of good aspects in his toolbox even though his 3.22 ERA did not match the 4.17 xFIP. The strong aspect for Manoah is even with the Yankees being a dangerous lineup, Manoah was at his best against righty hitters with a .228 wOBA, .156 average, and a 0.63 HR/9. One of the keys to his season could be just how “real” those numbers were because the BABIP was just .196 and the xFIP was actually high to the right side of the plate at 4.28. His K rate suffered a little bit as well at 26.2% and the Yankees could have a 7/2 split as far as righty/lefty hitters in their lineup. 

The toughest part in dissecting Manoah is his best strikeout pitch was his slider, racking up 53 of his 129 strikeouts. It boasted a 37% whiff rate and the lowest wOBA of any pitch at .236 and he threw it to righties almost as much as his four-seam (328 to 303). By the numbers, he should have been better against righties and perhaps just having some experience under his belt will help a little bit as well. We’ve talked about the Brewers top pitchers getting rocked in spring training and that tended to follow them so hopefully, Manoah follows the trend because he’s been lights out in spring with 14 IP, 1 ER, and 12 K’s, and a 0.86 WHIP. I wonder if the Jays try to push Manoah to his absolute pitch limit because their starters have gotten bludgeoned through the first weekend, so Manoah does have some upside relative to the field. 

Alex Wood ($9,200 DK/$9,200 FD)

The San Francisco Giants seem to have their pitchers ready to roll as Logan Webb pitched six innings, Carlos Rodon pitched five (and whiffed 12 hitters), and Anthony DeSclafani pitched under four but allowed eight hits. Getting a pitcher through five innings has been a challenge at the start of the season but Wood has the ability if he’s on the same track as his teammates. He did get beat up a little in the spring but still whiffed 12 hitters in 13 innings and the Padres are sort of a mixed bag as far as the matchup. They were poor last year and they already have the eighth-most plate appearances against lefties this year and the numbers are not super impressive. They’re all mid-pack and if they held through the season, they would be in the bottom 10 in categories like wOBA, wRC+, OPS, and ISO. Wood finished last season with a 3.44 xFIP, 26% K rate, 0.91 HR/9, and a barrel rate of just 5.3%. He did only pitch 133 innings so he didn’t qualify for year-end awards but his 12.5% swinging-strike rate was impressive and the 32.2% CSW would have ranked second behind only Corbin Burnes. 

The slider was what got it done for Wood last year and it boasted a 39.9% whiff rate with 91 strikeouts last year. San Diego was 15th against that pitch (they’ve started 14th this year) so that could be an avenue for success. He held righties to .299 for the wOBA last season and the K rate was over 27% to that side of the plate as well. The Padres will likely load up on righties but that’s not a deal-breaker and Wood is not the worst option tonight. 

Mid-Range 

Huascar Ynoa ($8,600 DK/$8,600 FD) 

The 2022 season is not that far in so we have to be careful about etching into stone how teams are performing in the early going. However, Washington against righties so far has been absolutely putrid. They have the second-most plate appearances with the fifth-highest K rate (30.2%) and they are in the bottom five in wRC+, wOBA, OBP, and OPS with a .211 batting average. Ynoa only pitched 91 innings last year and flashed some serious potential with a 26.9% K rate and a fly ball rate of just 31.8%. That’s a good sign because his HR/FB rate was probably out of whack at 18.4% and the swinging-strike rate was solid at 13.1%. Ynoa is unique in that he threw his slider as the primary pitch at 48% and his injury last year was not anything to worry about since he punched a bench and broke his hand. 

The sample we have from Ynoa from 2021 is encouraging since he was reverse splits, which means he was better to lefties. Washington should have six lefties in the lineup and Ynoa held them to a 1.07 HR/9, .270 wOBA, and a .211 average. At least in the early going, Washington is also 27th against the slider and even though Ynoa threw it 48.2% of the time last year, he still generated a 39.5% whiff rate and it only had a .252 wOBA. His fastball was what really had issues last year with nine home runs and a .361 wOBA, but the way Washington has come out of the gate gives some hope that he can have a strong start here. It also doesn’t hurt that the Nationals are 24th against the fastball either. 

Ranger Suárez ($8,900 DK/$9,600 FD) 

Deciding if you like this play is sort of deciding how much faith you’ll put in a 12 game sample size toward the end of last season. Suarez came out of the bullpen last year for Philly for 12 starts and many of the stats look incredible. He faced 260 batters and only gave up 11 earned runs, allowed a .247 wOBA, whiffed 25% of the hitters he faced, and had a 1.08 WHIP and a 2.35 FIP. However, the 3.39 xFIP was significantly higher than the ERA and he’s not likely to strain 86.6% of the runners that get on base again. His sinker really got strong results with just a .236 wOBA allowed and he managed to strike out 49 hitters with it despite it sporting just a 19.2% whiff rate. He’s never thrown it as much as the 45.5% rate he threw it last year and he only gave up four home runs, an impressive mark. 

If the 2021 stats stand up, the Mets lineup is in for a rough time against Suarez. They only had a .151 wOBA, .109 average, 2.09 xFIP, 0.59 WHIP, and a 33.3% K rate and the Mets could play as many as six lefties. The sinker really did work against the left side of the plate and we don’t want to put a ton of stock here because this is only a 32 inning sample size. We should also touch on the Mets leading in OBP, wOBA, and wRC+ at this early juncture though that’s obviously not anything we need to worry about. This is a tougher pitcher to gauge and the range of outcomes here is pretty wide. 

Honorable Mention – I would have loved to try and go after Luis Patino against the A’s as they are striking out like crazy to start the year. However, it doesn’t appear that he’s stretched out at all and may max out at three innings. I’ll be monitoring to see if we can get a read on things before lock. 

Punt Tier 

Michael Lorenzen ($6,700 DK/$6,200 FD) 

Let’s be clear about things – this pitcher that’s in this category has an ounce of safety built-in and these picks are volatile to a very high degree. However, Lorenzen is being given the chance to be a full-time starter for the Angels after being a reliever/outfielder for the Reds in the past few years. He hasn’t pitched over 33.2 innings for the past two seasons and has a career 4.25 xFIP and a 19.9% K rate. In the past, Lorenzen has relied on a mix of cutters, four-seams, and changeups for the most part and we’ll have to see how he approaches starting for the mix. He’s always been a little better against righties with a .303 wOBA, 3.99 xFIP, and a 20.7% K rate against that side of the plate and Miami should have six righties in the lineup. There is really no reason to expect the Marlins offense to be better than the middle of the road as they have started the year and they were below average last year. In his last spring start, Lorenzen had four strikeouts, three earned runs, and two walks but he did throw 80 pitches and that game was against the Dodgers. The offensive firepower is far less for Miami and Lorenzen is cheap enough to consider if you want the big bats. 

Honorable Mention – I don’t know if I have the guts to actually click on the submit button with Dylan Bundy tonight. His season last year was a disaster for the Angels with a 6.06 ERA (xFIP was 4.66) and his K rate went from 27% in 202 to 21.2% in 2021. What gives me a little bit of a pause is his CSW was still 29.9% and the swinging-strike rate 9.5%. Those are fantastic, but they aren’t the worst marks ever and even with his issues, he got a 36% whiff rate on the slider last year. If he can possibly figure that out, he could be serviceable at this salary because in 2020, the slider had a .161 wOBA and there is some possible potential in there. Lastly, he pitched nine innings in spring and only gave up five hits, three earned runs and whiffed 10 hitters. Seattle hasn’t been the best offense to start (they’re average in most of the categories) so perhaps if you do a big Blue Jays stack, I can see it.

Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 4/11 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 4/10

Well, there is good news and bad news for the first Sunday slate of the season. The good news is there are 10 games on the docket for the first time all year! The bad news is pitching gets thin pretty quickly but that doesn’t mean we can’t find plays we like at all levels. Let’s toe the rubber and avoid the blowup starts in the MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 4/10 and find our way to green screens once again today! 

Ace Tier 

Freddy Peralta ($10,200 DK/$10,400 FD)

I wonder if the field gets a little gun-shy with Peralta after the first two games of Brewers starters getting beat up, but if we’re going by what 2021 showed us, Peralta has about the highest potential on the slate. He had a little luck last year with a 3.66 xFIP compared to a 2.81 ERA but the 33.6% K rate is enticing and even though he threw the fastball over 51% of the time, the barrel rate was only 6%. A key component for Peralta was how the opposition constructed their lineup because the more righties he faced, the higher the ceiling was. His K rate to the right side of the plate was 38.2% and the xFIP dropped below 3.00. The largest reason is because of the slider, which is the whiff pitch Peralta throws with a 43.1% whiff rate last year. 

While the number of strikeouts for the fastball greatly outnumbered the slider at 110-65, the slider allowed a lower wOBA and was put in play far less often. Chicago is projected for six righties in the lineup and they were just 13th against the pitch last year. Peralta did come down to Earth in the second half of last year but the wOBA was still just 2.90 and the K rate was 30.8%. Like Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff ahead of him, Peralta did struggle in spring training but I’m not willing to throw away his 2021 campaign just because of two days. I’m not sure if I’ll be paying the top-end salary everywhere, but he’s certainly on the board for today. 

Cal Quantrill ($9,400 DK/$7,300 FD) 

This is another price I’m not crazy about on DK but the FD side is very appealing and Quantrill showed some good stuff last year in some respects. One thing that jumps off the page as scary is the 4.43 xFIP compared to 2.89 for the ERA and the K rate was not what you want from a pitcher over $9,000 because it was just 19.6%. He did counteract that with a barrel rate under 7% and a ground ball rate of 43.2%. The CSW was just 25.1% and the swinging-strike rate was under 10% so this is a tough pitcher to gauge because the Royals offense has not been strong yet. 

Quantrill relied on the sinker/cutter mix a little over 60% of the time last year and both pitches had a wOBA under .300. The whiff rate on the sinker was just 17.3% and when that’s the primary pitch, it explains some of the struggles to get swings and misses. The lineup could help or hurt Quantrill because he was worse to righty hitters with a .309 wOBA, a 4.68 xFIP, and just a 15.2% K rate. The Royals could have four lefties in the lineup which would help so we’ll see exactly who’s in tomorrow. I don’t think Quantrill is any kind of a slam dunk but he needs to be on the table for this slate. 

Honorable Mention – The first player is Marcus Stroman, who I expect to pitch well but the salary is very tough to make peace with. While he’s always been a strong pitcher in real life, his career K rate over 1,028 IP is 19.9%. Even last year when he was at his best as far as strikeouts go, it was 21.6%. and that’s not enough at almost $10,000 on both sites. I’d rather just play Peralta and have some tangible upside. 

The second player that I’m interested to see how he does is Hunter Greene. FD has left him very cheap and for those who may not know, Greene is ranked 22nd in all of baseball as far as prospects go and the kid can throw absolute fire. He can touch 100 MPH with the fastball and his first three pitches in spring went for 101, 102, and then 103 MPH. The K rate has always been over 28% at any level of the minors and he’s just 22-years old. I may take a chance on him and hope his stuff just overpowers Atlanta, but he would be an MME pitcher for me with no sample at the major-league level and a tough assignment in the Braves offense. 

Mid-Range 

Bailey Ober ($8,400 DK/$7,200 FD)

Ober only has 92.1 IP under his belt but things started to click a little bit better for him in the second half of the season and his overhauled slider helped quite a bit. Even among some thorny starts, there was strikeout potential with a 28.2% CSW and 11.4% swinging-strike rate to go along with his 25.3% K rate. The long ball is what really hurt him and during the first half, it was 2.45 compared to 1.67 in the second half. The second half number is still on the high side but it’s livable and the fact he brought it down so much is encouraging. His xFIP also fell to under 4.00 and the slider/curveball mix had a whiff rate of over 27% during the 2021 season. There is some concern about his lefty splits because he allowed a .359 wOBA and 1.48 WHIP but even then, the BABIP of .342 is awfully high. You have to take a bit of a leap here for Ober to continue getting better, but that’s a leap that makes sense. Even though Seattle likely has four lefties, the quality of those lefties like J.P. Crawford and Adam Frazier isn’t exactly what should scare you. Lastly, Seattle was one of four teams that whiffed at least 25% against righty pitching last year so there’s an avenue for Ober to pay off nicely. 

Zach Eflin ($7,700 DK/$8,000 FD) 

For anyone that hasn’t noticed, the Oakland A’s are striking out a lot through the first couple of games, and given the bats they are playing, that is not a surprise. Of course, it’s early, but they are into double-digits per game and that’s something to continue to take advantage of. Eflin is a pitcher that doesn’t jump off the page but he does everything solidly. His barrel rate last year was 6.8%, the K rate was over 22%, and both the swinging-strike rate (10.2%) and CSW (28.2%) were respectable. Now, the WHIP was still over 1.20 o both sides of the plate and the HR/9 was over 1.20 so we shouldn’t expect him to go out and whiff 10 through six innings, but Oakland looks awful so far. 

What’s a little curious to see is Eflin relied on a sinker/slider for about 66% of his pitches last year but the four-seam/curveball combo both had whiff rates over 31%. He only used his curve 10.8% of the time but it accounted for 17 out of 99 strikeouts. It did allow the highest wOBA of .468 but there could be pitch mix adjustments to be made that could lead to slightly better results. Oakland’s stats from last year aren’t the most relevant issue here because they lost chunks of their offense without replacing any, so Eflin is a solid mid-range play if you want to fit some bats. 

Carlos Carrasco ($8,100 DK/$7,000 FD) 

Carrasco is certainly on the back portion of his career and he was downright bad for the 2021 season with a 6.04 ERA and a 2.01 HR/9. The matchup looks pristine early as the Nationals are continuing to strike out an awful lot, almost 10 times per game so far. His xFIP from last year was 4.32 which is not nearly as bad as the ERA was and the HR/FB rate was over 19%, extremely high. What was surprising to see was Carrasco had a 12.4% swinging-strike rate and a 26.4% CSW and that swinging-strike rate suggests he can still fool hitters. Carrasco got blasted by righties last year with a .396 wOBA and the HR/FB was a mammoth 27.3%. The good news is the better hitters from the Nationals are more on the left side and their righties are not the highest home run threats for the most part. 

Carrasco may have struggled but his change/slider combo both had a whiff rate over 31% and the fastball was the pitch that had a wOBA over .400. He generated 29 of his 50 strikeouts with the change/slider is notable and if he can at least got average results on the fastball, things are going to change quickly for him. Given how pedestrian Washington could be offensively, Carrasco makes sense in GPP formats at least tonight because he wasn’t as bad as some of the stats say from last year. 

Honorable Mention – There are going to be times to play Tarik Skubal as he’s made changes to how he’s pitching and racked up a 21:3 K:BB ratio in 13.2 IP in the spring. His last start was against Toronto in the spring and it was wildly impressive. However, we don’t play lefty pitching against the White Sox and this will be more to see how his arsenal plays against an elite offense. 

Punt Tier 

Steven Matz ($7,100 DK/$7,900 FD) 

I feel like Brian is yelling at me from somewhere for writing up Matz (miss you buddy) but the Pirates were about the worst team in baseball against lefties last year and they’ve produced two runs so far this year. Pittsburgh was in the bottom five in average, OBP, OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ and even Matz can take advantage of that. He pitched 150.2 innings last year and both the ERA and xFIP were under 3.95 to go with a 1.08 HR/9. His K rate wasn’t anything special at 22.3% but he also generated a ground ball rate over 45%. It just so happened that the Pirates had the highest ground ball rate against lefties last year and this tends to be the life of a sinkerball pitcher. 

Matz threw the sinker 51.9% of the time and it did strike out 71 hitters despite a whiff rate of just 18.7%. His changeup and curve were better pitches as far as whiff rate as both were over 24% and the wOBA for both was under .300 so these secondary offerings are fairly solid. Matz was able to get a 27.8% CSW last year which is high considering his swinging strike rate was under 9.5%. Lastly, Matz went 6.2 IP in his last spring start and whiffed five hitters with 72 pitches thrown so we should expect around 80 or so. Given the matchup, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Matz as a very popular SP2 and there are plenty of reasons to play him on FD. 

Honorable Mention – I’ll be scouring Twitter and beat writers Sunday morning to see how many pitches we can expect from Michael Kopech. He’s a special talent but he’s also not as stretched out as Chicago had hoped with some slight injuries in the spring. If he’s around 60 pitches, he’s in play on DK but that remains to be seen. 

Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 4/10 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!