DraftKings

MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 4/14

Thursday is typically a slower day in MLB and today is no exception with only a six-game main slate, and that’s where the focus will be. We have some strong options on the mound and one aspect that always sticks out is this is a Coors slate and the hitters are very underpriced. We’ll be talking about that facet of the slate and who we’re pitching in the MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 4/14 so let’s get right to work!

Ace Tier 

Shohei Ohtani ($7,900 DK/$10,800 FD)

At least one site priced him correctly because DK just cannot figure out how to price Ohtani as a pitcher. He’s gotten off to a miserable start at the plate but he was fantastic in his first start of the year with nine strikeouts against the Astros in just 80 pitches. Ohtani should have more rope in this outing and the fact that he can whiff nine Astros reminds us how incredible he is as a pitcher. That lineup doesn’t whiff too often (17.9% this year) and even though Texas is only at 16.3% against righties so far, I simply don’t care that much. He only went 4.2 innings but Ohtani walked away with a 0.74 xFIP, 38.8% CSW, and a 15% swinging-strike rate. The four-seam was cooking at a 97.8 MPH average and he threw his slider 22 times for a 77.8% whiff rate. He didn’t even really throw the splitter that much and that was the K pitch last year, which should terrify every hitter. 

The largest concern is Ohtani has had some issues against lefties and that’s going to be the majority of the Texas lineup in all likelihood. Ohtani has always had a weird thing with lefties because he’s worse against them but the xFIP is still under 3.80 and the K rate is 25.5%. What doesn’t make much sense is he’s used the splitter the most against lefties. It was the secondary pitch to that side of the plate and it got a 48.5% whiff rate. Perhaps it was just pitch sequencing, perhaps it was mostly luck involved but a pitch that had a .113 wOBA has to be a weapon against that side of the plate. If anything, maybe it’s too many four-seams to lefties because he threw 508 last yea against 237 splitters. Either way, Ohtani is a strikeout artist and horrifically priced on DK again. 

Charlie Morton ($9,300 DK/$9,000 FD) 

On DK, this is where things will get interesting. Morton is a hair price for his normal upside as far as strikeouts but for this slate, the salary is still acceptable. He’s quite affordable on FD and he’s becoming a timeless veteran if he keeps this up. Morton is 38 but you couldn’t tell by his first start of the year, Morton only threw 78 pitches so we don’t really have to worry about the count here and he whiffed five hitters with just a 7.7% swinging-strike rate. At least compared to last season, his pitch mix was a good bit different because he threw the fastball 46% of the time (36% in 2021) and the curve was 39.7% (36.7% in 2021). His whiff rate on the curve wasn’t good in the first start at just 16.7% but that is almost encouraging to me. When Morton can’t get the curve working, he typically can struggle but he still pitched well. When the curve is getting more swings and misses, the results can be reasonably expected to get better. 

The Padres could throw as many as five lefties out there tonight but based on his 2021 season, that could be a bonus for Morton. He held the left side to a .255 wOBA, 0.94 WHIP, and maybe most importantly, a 32.4% K rate. When he gets to this salary, you need some strikeout upside because if he just goes for 3-4, it’s not going to help you all that much. The Padres offense is no pushover but they are whiffing over 24% of the time against righties and the choice between Morton and our next pitcher is not an easy one. 

Walker Buehler ($9,700 DK/$10,500 FD)

For those of you new to MLB, Buehler is one of those guys that is a huge pain for me personally. I feel like I never get him right and as much as I try to just let the stats and metrics do their job…there is some bias here in that I usually take my chances and don’t play Buehler. I don’t believe there’s an awful lot to take from his first start since it was in Coors and he whiffed five hitters in five innings, threw 78 pitches, and allowed two earned runs. Normally I’d raise my eyebrows at the 9% swinging-strike rate but in truth, Buehler has never been above 12.3% for any season and that’s just not exactly his game. The CSW is still good at over 29.5% for the career but he’s not a swing-and-miss guy in the same way some other aces are. Personally, I feel like that leads to some games where he bites you but again…bias duly noted. 

The Reds offense has not gotten going yet, sitting 28th in average, OBP, and ISO while being dead last in wOBA, wRC+, and OPS against righty pitching so far. That’s also coming with a 30.2% K rate and while 116 plate appearances aren’t going to tell the story of the 2022 season, Buehler is not exactly a slump-busting pitcher. One facet that really does stand out from one start was Buehler dropped his four-seam from 44% last year to just 25.6% and it was getting smoked in the first start. He only threw it 20 times but it allowed three hits, a double, and had a .746 wOBA allowed without a swing-and-miss compared to a 20.3% whiff rate in 2021. I’m mostly chalking that up to Coors and based on 2022 stats, he has a very strong matchup to flash some upside. We should get at least 90 pitches tonight but it is the Dodgers so kid’s gloves are always in play (not even a shot at taking out Kershaw, that’s just sometimes a thing with them). 

Honorable Mention – On DK, I believe the chalk will be concentrated on Ohtani and one of Morton or Buehler but on FD, there are two additional games. Sandy Alcantara of the Marlins faces Kyle Gibson of the Phillies and while both are options in the ace tier price-wise, I do think these three are better choices. I can’t buy Gibson whiffing 10 hitters again and Alcantara (while awesome) arguably has the toughest matchup against Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, and the rest of Philly’s lineup. 

Mid-Range 

Kevin Gausman ($8,500 DK/$9,600 FD) 

Results from a one-game sample in baseball can really not be indicative of how a player performed that day. Some days hitters will hit three balls at 100+ mph exit velocity and not have a hit. On other days a pitcher can produce a 20% swinging-strike rate and an xFIP of 2.46 but give up a .471 BABIP and surrender eight hits for three earned runs. That’s what happened to Gausman against Texas, and it seems like some crazy bad luck. He didn’t walk a hitter, he whiffed five on 80 pitchers, and his four-seam was an issue to lefties since he allowed a .419 wOBA (and a .500 BABIP). I will grant the average exit velocity allowed was a bit high but he struck out four of the seven righties he faced and the Yankees should throw plenty of righties out there. The everyday lineup for New York only has three lefties and Gausman was not a big splits pitcher last year, either. 

He threw his splitter, slider, and change for about 58% of his pitches last time and each of those three had a whiff rate of at least 50% and it looks overwhelmingly like it was just a tough game for the four-seam fastball. That did allow a .316 wOBA last year but his splitter made it work with a .175 wOBA and a 45.9% whiff rate. Gausman is not safe (still facing a powerful Yankee lineup) but this likely is a strong GPP play. The Yanks are whiffing around 24% of the time and the field is going to be focused on pitchers more or less expensive. Gausman will be in the middle ground, generating swings and misses with the splitter. 

Joe Musgrove ($7,600 DK) 

I believe the FD price is too high for my tastes because this is not a perfect spot. Musgrove got a great early test as far as his weakness in the splits because lefties can be an issue. Well, Arizona loaded up with LHH and Musgrove actually only threw 10 pitches to righties in the first start. It helps explain why his cutter was used so much, and I despise that pitch from him. The cutter allowed a .367 wOBA and his four-seam allowed a .407 wOBA in 2021, and they picked up where they left off. The wOBA was over .800 for the cutter (it allowed a double and a homer) and the four-seam was over .400. He’s not going to face many lefties against Atlanta, but as a team, there are only two hitters with ISO’s under .248 against righty pitchers. Matt Olson smacks cutters (love him as a one-off, if nothing else) and the start may be dictated by the slider. 

That was easily his primary pitch to the right side (eight of the 10 pitches he threw to righties was the slider) and it got a 55.6% whiff rate (36.6% in 2021) with wOBA’s under .230. Musgrove held righties to a .252 wOBA last year with a K rate over 28% but Atlanta is still top 12 in most of our offensive categories. Lineup construction is always important for him, but I can’t cast him aside because if he gets a bunch of righties, things could still go very right at this salary. 

Punt Tier 

We did this trick last year, and this will be the first appearance of it this year – The Starting Rotation Special. I’m not telling you who it is until after we lay out some stats because the name might be a little vomit-inducing, for one reason or another. Please keep in mind that the Specials are not safe plays and have a wide path to failure, but there are reasons to ride the lightning. This pitcher only has 62 innings in the majors the track record is far from something we can fall back on. What we do know is in those innings, he’s displayed a K rate of 24.1% and that matches his last two stops in the minors of 24.7% and 26.4%. Knowing there is some strikeout potential is fun, but he brings some groundball ability as well with a 50.9% career rate and it jumped up to 58.3% in the first start this year. He whiffed five hitters in his first game on 77 pitches and generated seven ground balls and had a negative launch angle on his four-seam/slider mix (almost 80% of his pitches). Now, I don’t love that he had a swinging-strike rate under 6% in the first start but last year it was at 11.2%, which is plenty for the salary. 

I will be taking shots on DK with Justin Steele in Coors Field, which may seem counter-productive. Colorado did mash lefties at home (because…duh) but they also had a ground ball rate of 46.7%, the third-highest in the majors. There is a trend that the first game in Coors Field goes under a lot, and last year the average number of runs for the first game was 9.9. In all other games, it jumped to 11.5 and that’s a significant gap, even by my 1:30 a.m. math. It was also wider in the front half of the season at 7.4 to 10.5, likely accounting for some weather. This game is going to be chalky as all get out, and if Steele can help keep the first game trend going, he could derail the slate for a lot of folks. The current total is 11.5 runs and the first game went under that nine of 13 times last year. 

Pitchers To Attack 

Jared does a great job covering some of the Coors Field options in his article today and quite simply, that game is going to be wildly popular. Instead of going over the cash offenses, let’s talk about some less popular options and we’re back on the Blue Jays once again. Luis Severino is on the mound for the Yankees tonight and he’s thrown exactly 24 innings since the start of 2019.He used the fastball over 50% of the time last start and it allowed over a .500 wOBA with a whiff rate of just 5%, not great ratios for facing Toronto. While Severino has been better against righties though his career, the Jays lineup hammers fastballs from the right side as George Springer, Vlad, Alejandro Kirk and Matt Chapman all have ISO’s over .220 against the fastball. Add in the fact that the Jays are considerably cheaper than they should be and this is a strong stack, despite some quiet games in New York.

The next spot that makes far too much sense is Los Angeles, as they face lefty Reiver Sanmartin as he’ll be the long deliver. Luis Cessa will be the opener but Sanmartin is a very inexperienced pitcher with just 14 innings at the major league level. He’s turned to a four-seam/changeup mix for the majority of his pitches and Trea Turner, Chris Taylor, Mookie Betts, and Justin Turner are all top targets here. They all had wOBA’s over .345 and ISO’s over .230 last year, and Turner especially hammers changeups with an ISO over .300 against that pitch. I really like the idea of playing Max Muncy if he’s in the lineup because he hammered LvL matchups last year with a .291 ISO, .406 wOBA, and a K rate under 17% with an ISO over .220 against both of the main pitches for Sanmartin.

Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 4/14 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 4/13

We get a daylight main slate today with lock coming before 12:30 p.m although the sites are different as DraftKings has seven games and FanDuel has nine. There are some differences that will get pointed out but for the most part, the slates are the same and can be broken down in the same fashion. Let’s dig in to see what spots we like and keep the momentum going in the MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 4/13 to find more green!

Ace Tier 

Max Scherzer ($10,100 DK/$11,000 FD) 

He’s certainly not cheap but Mad Max is among the best arms on the slate and the matchup is tough, but Philly is no higher than 10th in any of the offensive categories we focus on and they have a 24.4% K rate on the early part of the year. Scherzer ended up throwing 80 pitches so over 90 should be near a lock and in the first start, Scherzer had a 3.04 xFIP despite having just an 8.8% swinging-strike rate. He hasn’t been below double-digits since 2011 so I’m not willing to say there’s a reason for concern at this point although it’s at least worth noting that his four-seam velocity was down just a tick. Scherzer did throw it under 40% in the first start but he also did not generate a swing and miss with the four-seam so that’s not a trend we’d be hoping continues. The good news is he should face six righties in the lineup and his slider was as good as ever. He threw it 13 times in the first start (all against RHH) and he got three strikeouts with a 57.1% whiff rate. Of course, this is one start we’re talking about and the hamstring at least played some role but the seven righties he faced had no chance with a .129 wOBA and a 0.28 xFIP. Considering he was slightly worse to lefties last year, I think there’s no real reason to plant any red flags on Scherzer at this point. We’ll chalk p the four-seam results to variance and potentially slightly dealing with the hammy, but there is not much to say Scherzer shouldn’t be ready to roll here.

The second player in this tier depends on the site. Over on FD, you can pitch Framber Valdez, and he would be my choice if you have that available. Valdez used his sinker 52% of the Tim win the first start against the Angels and it didn’t do much as far as strikeouts go, but that’s where the curve and change entered the fray. Those two pitches were about 44% of his makeup and they both had at least a 40% whiff rate and wOBA’s under .210. Additionally, it’s a little unfair to pin this down so early but Arizona is 29th or 30th in OBP, OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ so far and their 35 PA against lefties is 17th in the league. Arizona was not good last year either against lefties so this would be a trend that continues, meaning I put a little more stock into it. 

You can make the case for Aaron Nola, but the guy absolutely drives me bonkers. There’s no other way to say and even on opening day, he was on cruise control with seven strikeouts but winds up getting tagged with four runs because he couldn’t quite finish things off. He was another player that had some trouble generating any whiffs with his four-seam at 14.3% (down about 8% from 2021) but his curve was working with a 43.8% whiff rate and four of his seven strikeouts. The Mets were 28th against that pitch last season but they were very injured all year and they’ve started out third, even though that’s always with a grain of salt. Additionally, the Mets have come out of the gates in the top four in wOBA, average, wRC+, OPS, and OBP so that could wind up being an issue. In this tier, I’m playing Scherzer with Valdez as the pivot on FD and would likely pass on Nola. 

Honorable Mention – The Braves are starting Max Fried but just like Opening Day, I’m not enamored with his salary at $9,500. I think over the long haul this year Washington will be sold against lefty pitching. Even though Fried came out of the first start with a 2.40 FIP and 3.63 xFIP, his K rate hasn’t been over 24% since 2019. I would rather play the next pitcher on the list given the salaries involved. 

Mid-Tier 

Clayton Kershaw ($9,200 DK/$9,100 FD) 

I bring up a potential Scherzer/Nola because the pitching is not great after the top end today. We do get the season debut of Kershaw, who pitched five innings and 75 pitches in a simulated game his last time pitching so we should expect around 80 pitches today. Kershaw only pitched 121.2 innings last year but the 2.87 xFIP was impressive, as was the 29.5% K rate, the 48.5% ground ball rate, and the massive 16.7% swinging-strike rate fit in with the 32.7% CSW. There was some suspicion that he was using plenty of sticky stuff last year but we don’t have the largest sample size and in fairness to the pitchers, changing the rules in the middle of the season was unfair. Kershaw has now had a full offseason to tinker and until we’re faced with the alternative, I’ll treat him as a great, if aging, pitcher. 

Additionally, Kershaw does need the fastball to be effective but his heavy lifting is done with the slider, which racked up 108 of 144 strikeouts last year. It only allowed a .253 wOBA and boasted a 44% whiff rate despite being the primary pitch at 47.6%. Minnesota was 22nd in wOBA, OPS, 25th in OBP, and 15th in ISO against lefties last year and they also backed that up by ranking 21st against the slider. This is overall a reasonably strong spot for Kershaw and if he can get through Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, and Jorge Polanco, the Twins lineup doesn’t look like the scariest group on the planet. 

Adam Wainwright ($8,700 DK/$8,700 FD) 

My initial impression is this is a good time to let Waino pass without playing him at the salary, but let’s check things out. The curve can still be a weapon and it grabbed two of the six strikeouts he recorded in the first game. His xFIP was 1.81 through those six innings and he was in full control basically the whole way through his 81 pitches. He should be closer to 95 this time if things are going right and he got a 53% ground ball rate, a hallmark of his past few years on the mound. There is some slight concern that the swinging-strike rate was only 4.9% but even last year, it didn’t clear 9% and his stuff usually is more tricky than it is overpowering. 

The Royals lineup is going to be split 5/4 L/R if it’s the everyday lineup so that doesn’t give much of a lean either way for Wainwright. The largest fear is you need some strikeouts at this salary. Ask Luis Garcia from last night and the Royals are still one of the hardest teams to strike out so far at 15.4%. That’s in line with 2021 when they whiffed only 21.6%, the fourth-lowest mark in the league. It helps a little bit that KC was 29th against the curve and that led the strike charge for Wainwright last year with 72 but the path to success at this salary is still going to be pretty narrow. 

Nathan Eovaldi ($8,200 DK/$8,500 FD)

When you walk through a start in Yankee Stadium and go five innings, whiff seven, and only give up three runs, that’s not terrible and Eovaldi is a strong pitcher for the most part. He generated a massive 64.3% ground ball rate and every fly ball left the yard, which really speaks to bad luck and his 2.07 xFIP makes a lot of sense. The one home run he surrendered to Giancarlo Stanton was a home run in New York and it would not have been a bomb in any other park. Eovaldi was wildly impressive for his swing-and-miss stuff with a 22.4% rate in the first game and his splitter was evil. He did only throw it 14 times (18.4%) but it got three strikeouts with a 70% whiff rate. The four-seam was up almost 1.5 MPH (which helps the splitter look even better) and that got a 35.7% whiff ate as well. So far this season, Detroit is striking out over 25% of the time and that may look familiar because they whiffed over 27% of the time last year. The reinforcements have made a mixed bag effect with a decent ISO (14th) but they are still 19th or worse in wRC+, OPS, and average. Lastly, Detroit is only 22nd against the fastball and that’s the main pitch for Eovaldi even though it was just 31.6%. I wonder if he gets lost in the shuffle here with some bigger names but Eovaldi can match the outcomes of just about anyone on the slate. 

Punt Play 

Kyle Hendricks ($6,600 DK/$8,100 FD) 

He feels a little expensive on FD but on DK, I’m willing to be that the Scherzer/Hendricks pairing is the cash pair and the most popular. It leaves plenty of room for bats and Hendricks is coming off a strong start against the Brewers with seven strikeouts. That’s kind of the rub for Hendricks because that’s not something to lean on. His career K rate is 20.2% compared to 29.2% in game one, so to say it’s an aberration seems pretty fair. The 20.5% swinging-strike rate is barely more than his last two seasons’ worth combined and the CSW was over 37%. The easiest way to explain the jump was Hendricks flipped his primary pitch to the changeup, throwing it 39.8% of the time compared to 27.8% in the 2021 season. The change generated a 59.1% whiff rate and the change in approach could help at least in the short term. 

The other positive aspect is the Pittsburgh offense has been very poor so far and was one Bryan Reynolds home run away from getting shut out yesterday. They are 21st in OBP, 27th in OPS, 30th in ISO, 28th in wOBA, and 26th in wRC+. It’s one thing to say it’s early (it is) but we have no reason to think Pittsburgh gets any better this year until O’Neil Cruz comes up from AAA at the earliest. The one slight worry with Hendricks outside of just the style of pitcher that he is could be he’s always been worse to lefties with a .303 wOBA, 4.11 xFIP, and a 1.20 WHIP. It’s just questionable if the Pirates are the ones to get to him and I’m fine eating this in cash, though I may try to find a pivot in GPP. I am intrigued but the changeup-heavy approach though. 

Zach Thompson ($5,200 DK)

I’m only doing this in 3-max to get different on DK-Only but I will confess to being interested in Thompson. He only pitched 75 innings last year and he’s older for a player with this little experience under his belt at 28-years old. His xFIP was 4.65, the K rate was 21%, and the fly-ball rate was over 40%. It’s going to be important as far as his career splits what kind of lineup the Cubs throw out there because he’s held righties to a .245 wOBA, 22.7% K rate, 0.98 WHIP, and a 4.14 xFIP. The left side has been much worse but what really still has my attention is he still had an 11.7% swinging-strike rate and his entire pitch mix had a whiff rate of at least 21%. There is something there that can be used for fantasy at this salary and if everyone goes to Hendricks, Thompson could be interesting. He did whiff 12 in 13 IPs in the spring and his cutter is a decent-looking pitch, tied with his curveball last year with 20 strikeouts each. The Cubs started off well but really struggled yesterday so just understand this is a pure punt and could go off the rails in a hurry. 

Honorable Mention – The Guardians have smacked around the little bit of lefty pitching they’ve seen so far so while Nick Lodolo is a very talented pitcher, I’m not as sold as I was with Matt Brash yesterday. Lodolo has a strong fastball/slider/changeup mix but Cleveland is a team that is second in OBP, wOBA, and wRC+ as well. It’s a tougher assignment overall so I think I’m mostly out, despite his K rate over 35% in AA and AAA last season. 

Pitchers To Attack 

It’s almost impossible to not want to go back to the Braves against Josiah Gray, who has a career of 5.67 ERA, 4.95 xFIP, 2.41 HR/9, and both sides of the plate have a wOBA over .350. His fastball is used at least 45% against both sides of the plate and Eddie Rosario, Matt Olson, Austin Riley, Ozzie Albies, Adam Duvall, Dansby Swanson, and Alex Dickerson have wOBA’s over .345 and ISO’s over .245 against righty fastballs. Gray’s also has given up a .320 ISO and an average distance of 329 feet. They could be picking on the bullpen again early in this game, just like last night. Everyone was also over a .320 wOBA and .190 ISO against righty pitching so this is among the best spots on the slate. 

Additionally, the Guardians are on my list as well with Jose Ramirez, Franmil Reyes, Amed Rosario, and Oscar Mercado as the main points with a wOBA over .358 and ISO’s of at least .140. The pitch mix is a little unknown but these guys have been hitting well and even though Reyes has not joined the club, it’s only a matter of time until he gets ahold of one. 

Honorable Mention 

Dodgers – Turner (both), Betts, Freeman, Lux, Muncy 

Reds – Votto, India, Naquin, Fraley

Red Sox – Martinez, Bogaerts, Arroyo, Malbec, Hernandez

Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 4/13 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!