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DraftKings Showdown

Week 11 NFL DFS Thursday Night Showdown: Patriots at Falcons

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

The NFL DFS season continues with the Thursday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the first Week 11 NFL DFS contests!

NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy, see the Week 1 TNF showdown article.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 11 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

Week 11 NFL DFS Chalk: Mac Jones (FD $15,000, DK $15,900)

Pivot: Matt Ryan (FD $15,500, DK $13,200)

Pivot #2: Damien Harris (FD $13,500, DK $13,200)

Pivot #3: Kyle Pitts (FD $12,000, DK $14,400)

Contrarian #1: Jakobi Meyers (FD $10,500, DK $12,000)

Contrarian #2: Patriots DST (DK $8,400)

The choices at captain are a lot more wide open tonight, but Mac Jones is the chalk. He’s coming off a game where he gained plenty of confidence throwing it downfield, and that’s a scary proposition for the Falcons defense — as well as the other teams in the AFC playoff hunt. We could pivot to veteran Matt Ryan assuming a negative game script, but it’s not looking good from a weapons standpoint, as Atlanta is likely without a couple of their most impactful players (Cordarrelle Patterson may not play and Calvin Ridley is still away from the team). Damien Harris is an option, as he doesn’t carry an injury designation into the matchup despite missing last week with a concussion, but I expect Rhamondre Stevenson to cut into his workload more this week.

Patriots notes: The best receiving options for the Pats are Jakobi Meyers, TE Hunter Henry and Kendrick Bourne, who seems to be involved every week in some capacity. Pricing is pretty close on all three, but Henry, who will undoubtedly be popular among game log watchers, seems like the best value. Plus, it’s a showdown, and tight ends seem to really love showdowns. Getting some exposure to Harris is still important, even if we’re not focusing on him at CPT, and with Brandon Bolden questionable, the door could be open for some of the passing down work to go to Stevenson, if he’s up to the pass blocking responsibilities he’ll have to assume as well. I think I’ll use the Patriots DST in about half my builds.

Falcons notes: I’m likely fading Ryan in most of my builds, and I don’t see too many scenarios where I’m playing more than two Falcons, and probably none at 4 Falcons – 2 Pats. The best option is Kyle Pitts, and despite zero catches last week, we can use Russell Gage in a few builds. The coach said he only gave Wayne Gallman all those carries last time out because it was a blowout, but I think we could see him rack up a few more catches in garbage time. Aside from Patterson, who seems like a longshot to play, there’s Mike Davis, and the I really don’t have much interest in the rest of the guys except maybe reserve TE Lee Smith, who’s really cheap and could end up being on the winning build if he vultures a TD somehow.

Week 11 NFL DFS Final thoughts (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on an NFL DFS narrative that makes sense.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together

DON’T: Worry about spending every dollar.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.

DON’T: Forget to watch the inactives. If Patterson somehow plays, he’ll be a lot of the Falcons offense.

Now that we’ve established some Week 11 NFL DFS narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

Mac Jones
Damien Harris
Kyle Pitts
Hunter Henry
Matt Ryan
Jakobi Meyers
Patriots DST
Cordarrelle Patterson (longshot to play, but relevant if he does)
Kendrick Bourne
Mike Davis
Russell Gage
Wayne Gallman
Rhamondre Stevenson
Nelson Agholor
Olamide Zaccheaus
Brandon Bolden
Nick Folk (questionable)
Younghoe Koo
J.J. Taylor
Tajae Sharpe
Jonnu Smith (questionable)
Lee Smith
Falcons DST
N’Keal Harry (questionable)

Don’t forget to read the rest of WinDaily’s excellent football articles this week as you prep for Week 11 action!

3 years ago 0 comments

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Week 10 NFL DFS Monday Night Showdown: Rams at 49ers

Antonio D'Arcangelis 3 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

The NFL DFS season continues with the Monday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the final Week 10 NFL DFS contests!

NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy, see my first showdown article of 2021.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 10 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Week 10 NFL DFS Chalk: Cooper Kupp (FD $16,000, DK $18,000)

Pivot: Matthew Stafford (FD $17,000, DK $16,200)

Contrarian #1: Darrell Henderson (FD $12,000, DK $13,800)

Contrarian #2: Jimmy Garappolo (FD $14,000, DK $15,000)

Contrarian #3: Brandon Aiyuk (FD $7,500, DK $9,900)

Cooper Kupp appears to be the chalk at CPT on DK but Matthew Stafford currently holds the edge on FD tonight. Both are fine options but Stafford may be the safer of the two when considering how the 49ers could blanket Kupp and force Stafford to distribute among his other weapons.

Rams notes: Kupp, Stafford and Darrell Henderson are the top three options for the Rams, but we shouldn’t ignore the explosiveness of TE Tyler Higbee, WR Van Jefferson and the newly acquired Odell Beckham, Jr. Seeing a big game from OBJ may be a bit of a stretch, and he’s certainly not worth his inflated salary just yet, but ownership should be low. I really like the price on both Higbee and Jefferson, and we should monitor the status of Ben Skowronek, who’s questionable with a thigh injury but could start if he’s active. With Robert Woods (torn ACL) on the shelf it’s likely Jefferson will absorb a few more targets per game – which could translate into fantasy relevancy. Even before Woods went down, his targets over the past few weeks increased to 7-6-7, and I’m banking on increased production from him and Higbee tonight.

49ers notes: My favorite 49ers player, for the price, is actually Brandon Aiyuk, and his ownership should be significantly lower than we might expect because Deebo Samuel is off the injury report, rights along with Elijah Mitchell. Among Samuel and Mitchell I prefer Mitchell, because the way to attack the Rams is by running right at them, while Samuel may line up over Rams shutdown CB Jalen Ramsey a good percentage of the time tonight. The other player I’ll be clicking frequently, and probably much more frequently in my builds than QB Jimmy Garoppolo, is George Kittle, who returned last week with a 8-101-1 game and is crucial to their success tonight. A lot of my 49ers builds will just be Aiyuk and Kittle, with four Rams on the other side. We could also get word the 49ers will give more touches to Jeff Wilson, which could elevate him based on his very low price.

Week 10 NFL DFS Final thoughts (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together.

DON’T: Forget about the kickers. They could play a role in a game that might involve some stalled drives just outside the red zone.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.

DON’T: Neglect to see who’ active and check how much we should see OBJ. It could affect whether or not we consider Skowronek, who’s a solid value play if active.

Now that we’ve established some Week 10 NFL DFS narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

Cooper Kupp
Matthew Stafford
Darrell Henderson
Jimmy Garappolo
Brandon Aiyuk
Elijah Mitchell
Deebo Samuel
George Kittle
Tyler Higbee
Van Jefferson
Odell Beckham, Jr.
Rams DST
Jeff Wilson, Jr.
Matt Gay
Robbie Gould
Sony Michel
Kyle Jusczcyk
49ers DST
Ben Skowronek
Ross Dwelley

Don’t forget to read the rest of WinDaily’s excellent football articles this week as you prep for next week’s action!

3 years ago 0 comments

NFL

WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 10 Chiefs at Raiders 11.14

David Stowe 3 years ago

written by David Stowe

Sunday night showdown time ladies and gentlemen! I hope that as you are all reading this you are looking at green screens across the board. Be sure to hop in discord to get all of the updated information leading up to the kick and take a look at our custom projections model to see where we are going to look for our flex plays. So without further ado, here is your WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 10 Chiefs at Raiders 11.14.

If you were here with us last season you may remember this disclaimer. Do not waste half of your budget or double down on showdown because you had a bad main slate. Unless you get incredibly lucky your best-case scenario is a chopped pot with a ton of people. Just throw a few lineups in and have fun while you have a little sweat going. If you go all in on a showdown and tilt because it didn’t work out, it is on you.

Vegas Script: Total: 52.5, Chiefs -2.5

After everything that has happened with the Raiders in previous weeks you would think that the would be larger underdogs than a simple 2.5 point dog but the Raiders have played the Chiefs better than any other team in the NFL over the last couple of season and if you take a look at Patrick Mahomes’ stat lines you will see that he has looked downright bad over the last few weeks.

Captains:

Chalk: Patrick Mahomes, $18,600:

Usually when you are playing showdowns we would see Mahomes somewhere between 20-30% captain. In those scenarios I would say fade the chalk so you don’t chop the pot with 1,000 of your closest friends. But 13% is a different story. If you want to take a chance on Patty tonight and you feel like he can right the ship we all know what is ceiling is and you likely will not see him as a sub-20% captain again this year.

Pivot: Derek Carr, $15,900 :

As I said above you are not really leveraging any ownership in tonight’s game if you use the top 5 players in captain as they are all within 5% of each other. The question is simply who will outperform who and if you do not think Mahomes will return to form the most logical pivot is Derrick Carr. In his last two contests Carr completed over 71% of his passes, with three touchdowns, and one interception. The Chiefs have been a mess in every facet as of late and Darren Waller should have no issues getting open all day downfield for big plays in this contest.

Contrarian #1: Darren Waller, $14,400 :

Waller has unsurprisingly been a big reason why Carr has performed well against the Chiefs in both of their 2020 matchups getting 7 targets in each, and finishing with with 48 and 88 yards and a touchdown in each contest. Waller is already the favorite target of Carr and now Henry Ruggs is gone opening up a few more targets a game. KC is also one of the absolute worst at defending the tight end position so there is a reasonable chance that he sees 12-15 targets tonight and gets into the endzone at least once.

Contrarian #2: Travis Kelce, $15,000 :

Travis Kelce gets the slightest of edges for me over Tyreek Hill as a captain play and I am really nitpicking here. Mahomes has been at his worst over the last three weeks in terms of timing and accuracy. If I have to choose one player to help him get right I want the larger target, who isn’t 65 yards down the field, and easier to time his routes. Mahomes needs to get in a rhythm and I just see that as being an easier feat at the moment with the big guy at tight end. Before you ask, yes you can play Hill at captain. He is still the Cheetah and he can drop 50 on this defense if Mahomes is on his game tonight. But I am not doing anyone any good just listing Mahomes, Kelce, Hill as the top three options in a showdown slate every time they play. We all know what they bring to the table.

Contrarian #3: Josh Jacobs, $13,000 :

Ok I will put one guy in here who is lower owned. KC’s biggest weakness is clearly run defense and this might finally be the week we get a ceiling game from Jacobs if the Raiders attack it. The biggest problem for the last few season is that teams get behind so big that they have to abandon it. That has been far from the case of late. This is a little bit of a gut play for me as Jacobs has not been getting the workload that we were expecting this year but I wanted to give you guys something a little different as Jacobs is right around 4% projected as a captain play tonight and if KC lays another egg you will find yourself in a high leverage position.

WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 10 Chiefs at Raiders 11.14. Flex plays:

Patrick Mahomes
Tyreek Hill
Derek Carr
Travis Kelce
Darren Waller
Josh Jacobs
Hunter Renfrow
Darrel Williams
Mecole Hardman
Kenyan Drake
DeSean Jackson
Harrison Butker
Daniel Carlson
Raiders
Chiefs
Byron Pringle
Foster Moreau
Demarcus Robinson

Kickers and defenses:

With all of the obvious plays priced up there will be a clear need for some salary savings tonight so as far as I am concerned both kickers in this contest are firmly in play and as wild is it is for me to say it, if you are scripting an build where you expect the Chiefs struggles to continue I do not see anything wrong with taking a risk in a spot or two and targeting the Raiders defense. Wow, it feels so wrong saying that but here we are.

It is time folks and I hope WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 10 Chiefs at Raiders 11.14 helps you towards your goals. It is time to start digging into DFS and make sure that we have our processes in place for a successful 2021 NFL campaign. If you have any questions about the article or anything else, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

3 years ago 0 comments

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Week 10 NFL DFS Thursday Night Showdown: Ravens at Dolphins

Antonio D'Arcangelis 3 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

The NFL DFS season continues with the Thursday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the first Week 10 NFL DFS contests!

NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy, see the Week 1 TNF showdown article.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 10 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Week 10 NFL DFS Chalk: Lamar Jackson (FD $17,500, DK $20,700)

Pivot: Mark Andrews (FD $13,000, DK $13,200)

Pivot #2: Marquise Brown (FD $13,500, DK $16,500)

Pivot #3: Jaylen Waddle (FD $12,000, DK $12,300)

Contrarian #1: DeVonta Freeman (FD $10,500, DK $9,900)

Contrarian #2: Mike Gesicki (FD $12,500, DK $11,100)

Oh, boy. We’ve finally gotten to an outrageous price point for our chalk captain, and on DK, the electric Lamar Jackson has eclipsed $20K. And when you consider that his passing yardage and rushing yardage props combine for right about 300 yards, it doesn’t seem all that silly. Jackson is actually from right nearby, in Pompano Beach. It’s only about a 35-minute drive away from Hard Rock Stadium, unless you get caught with faulty GPS in a less-than-desirable section of that city in a sketchy trailer park, which happened to me once. Most frightened I’ve ever been in my life. Anyway, we can find ways to get to Lamar at CPT, but there are some pivots to consider once we recognize that the Ravens don’t actually shut anybody down defensively.

Ravens notes: It probably won’t be the narrative we’ve seen a couple times before this season, where the Ravens need to come back from multiple TDs to notch a win, but I could see the offense starting off without a bang — giving the Dolphins (and their 26th worst defense against opposing fantasy RBs) healthy doses of DeVonta Freeman, who’s coming off his best game of 2021. Freeman is a good value and with Latavius Murray doubtful, we could see Le’Veon Bell get some carries as well. The receiving options have expanded as well, and while Mark Andrews and Marquise Brown are the two most obvious options, we have a healthy Rashod Bateman, a resurgent Devin Duvernay coming off a big Week 9, and god old Sammy Watkins, who’s expected to play. Bateman’s eight targets against the Vikings could be a sign of bigger things to come, so he’s the priority after Andrews and Brown. Of course, the Ravens DST and Justin Tucker are worth mixing into your builds as well.

Dolphins notes: We’re still not sure who’s starting at QB for the Dolphins, but that’s baked into the pricing because they’re not that far apart. I don’t have much interest in Tua Tagovailoa if he starts, but the minimal discount on Jacoby Brissett could mean I’ll use him in 2-3 out of 10 GPP builds. Myles Gaskin could see a few extra targets in the passing game, and while the Ravens run defense isn’t great, the Dolphins have had a rough time making holes for Gaskin in a traditional offensive sense. For that reason, I’m most enamored by the possibilities that exist with Mike Gesicki and Jaylen Waddle, both dynamic players who can rack up catches and yardage. Remaining options include Mack Hollins and my favorite cheap option tonight — WR Preston Williams, who’s just $200 as a flex play and could be worth a look at captain in some contrarian builds — just like I planned for Jimmy Graham on MNF before the football gods yanked away my shot at glory.

Week 10 NFL DFS Final thoughts (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on an NFL DFS narrative that makes sense.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together

DON’T: Worry about spending every dollar.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.

DON’T: Neglect Preston Williams. His price tag allows for lots of stacked builds and a shot at rostering Lamar with some other high-upside plays.

Lamar Jackson
Mark Andrews
Marquise Brown
DeVonta Freeman
Jaylen Waddle
Mike Gesicki
Rashod Bateman
Myles Gaskin
Jacoby Brissett
Ravens DST
Preston Williams
Tua Tagovailoa (if active)
Justin Tucker
Sammy Watkins
Mack Hollins
Jason Sanders
Devin Duvernay
Le’Veon Bell
Dolphins DST
Albert Wilson
Salvon Ahmed
Patrick Ricard
Durham Smythe

Don’t forget to read the rest of WinDaily’s excellent football articles this week as you prep for Week 9 action!

3 years ago 0 comments

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Week 9 NFL DFS Monday Night Showdown: Bears at Steelers

Antonio D'Arcangelis 3 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

The NFL DFS season continues with the Monday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the final Week 9 NFL DFS contests!

NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy, see my first showdown article of 2021.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 9 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Week 9 NFL DFS Chalk: Najee Harris (FD $16,500, DK $18,600)

Pivot: Ben Roethlisberger (FD $15,000, DK $15,900)

Contrarian #1: Diontae Johnson (FD $13,500, DK $16,800)

Contrarian #2: Justin Fields (FD $14,000, DK $15,600)

Contrarian #3: David Montgomery (FD $13,000, DK $12,600)

Najee Harris is the runaway chalk at CPT on both DK and FD tonight, and with good reason. He’s scored at leats 19 DK points in every game this season except Week 1, and he’s heavily involved in all aspect of the offense. A true bell cow, Harris is still affordable and there are plenty of value plays in this matchup where we can justify using him in the lead role and building a realistic narrative around him.

Bears notes: Justin Fields is still developing as an NFL QB, and while the Bears could have their own bell cow back this game in the form of David Montgomery (questionable, supposed to return from IR), Fields offers some upside with both his legs and assuming a negative game script where he’ll be throwing for much of the second half. I don’t see too many scenarios where I’d play both Montgomery and Fields together, but maybe one in ten GPPs. WRs to target include the underperforming Allen Robinson and Darnell Mooney, who has had some big games but popped up on the injury report last week and was limited in practice (but expected to play Monday night). If Mooney can’t go, Marquise Goodwin would get a big bump and make some sense as a last piece in 3-man Bears stacks. TEs Cole Kmet and an insanely low-price Jimmy Graham could be gamebreakers at well. Graham is priced at just $200 but is finally eligible to return to action tonight, so he might be worth a punt in some builds.

Steelers notes: After Harris, we have abiding interest in Ben Roethliberger and Diontae Johnson, who has at least 12 targets in four out of his last five games. I’d be leaning toward a Big Ben fade if I’m playing both Johnson and Harris, but we could go for a full four-man stack that includes Chase Claypool in a build or two if we punt CPT with Jimmy Graham, which could be hilarious and not necessarily a terrible way to approach cash games. There’s actually a path to Mooney in that build as well, and if plays I’m definitely considering it. TE Pat Freiermuth could also be a factor, but he’s not a huge priority.

Week 9 NFL DFS Final thoughts (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together.

DON’T: Forget about the questionable guys and whether or not Jimmy Graham is active.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.

DON’T: Neglect Khalil Herbert if Montgomery is inactive. He’ll be important.

Now that we’ve established some Week 8 NFL DFS narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

Najee Harris
Diontae Johnson
Ben Roethlisberger
Justin Fields
David Montgomery (questionable)
Chase Claypool
Darnell Mooney (questionable)
Allen Robinson
Steelers DST
Pat Freiermuth
Khalil Herbert (if Montgomery inactive)
Cole Kmet
Jimmy Graham (if active)
Chris Boswell (questionable) or Josh Lambo
Cairo Santos
Marquise Goodwin (higher if Mooney out)
Jesse James
James Washington
Bears DST
Ryan Nall

Don’t forget to read the rest of WinDaily’s excellent football articles this week as you prep for next week’s action!

3 years ago 0 comments

NFL

WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 9 Titans at Rams 11.7

David Stowe 3 years ago

written by David Stowe

***Quick shoutout to our subscriber Warner Bros who in just a few short weeks with us has binked in two different showdown slates leading to over 34K in winnings. Keep it up and welcome to the team!

Vegas Script: Total: 53, Rams -7.5

I don’t know what to make of this contest without Henry. Will the Titan’s abandon the run and throw the ball 50+ times? Will Peterson be some kind of reasonable analogue of the King for a few weeks? Will the Titan’s be completely out of rhythm and end up losing by multiple scores? This is an odd one to handicap so if you play showdown tonight you really need to build numerous lineups that will tell each story to give yourself the best shot at success.

Captains:

Chalk: Matt Stafford $19,200:

Against that Charmin toilet paper soft defense of the Titans, Matt Stafford should absolutely smash and it makes a ton of sense that he will be the highest owned captain on the slate. Nothing much need to be discussed here. Stafford is playing at an MVP caliber and the Titans are bad on the defensive side.

Pivot: Ryan Tannehill, $14,700:

With King Henry expected to miss the rest of the season, the hopes and dreams and the franchise rests on the right arm of Tannehill. We do not have a huge sample to go off but if there was a day that Tanny would end up throwing the ball 50 times this is the one. With No Henry, or Evans, the Titans are stuck with Jeremy McNichols and Adrian Peterson as their primary backs.

Contrarian #1: Cooper Kupp, $18,600:

Cooper Kupp is all of our daddies at this point. I though he was going to be good with Stafford at the helm, I did not however to expect him to play like a god amongst me, racking up more fantasy points than any other wide receiver in the history of the NFL through 8 weeks. He is a lock button for me tonight. If he isn’t a captain he will be in my flex, 100%, no doubt. Do not fade him.

Contrarian #2: AJ Brown, $15,300:

It is safe to say that without Henry, AJ Brown will find himself near the top of the NFL in targets going into the second half of the year. The Titans have no other choice but to change to a pass first offense and they do not have a ton of depth. Brown, Julio, rinse and repeat. If the Titans go down big tonight Brown is looking at 12 targets as his floor and he can turn any one of them into a big play.

Contrarian #3: Darrell Henderson, $13,800:

With the Rams as 7.5 point favorites Henderson should have every opportunity to go ham against Tennessee’s soft defense. I’ve been trying to gauge this contest without Henry and if you were to tell me that LA trounces the Titans by 21+ points and Henderson ended up with 15 carries in the second half for 98 yards and 2 TD’s I would not be surprised in the least.

WDS Stoweby’s WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 9 Titans at Rams 11.7 Flex plays:

Matthew Stafford
.Ryan Tannehill
Cooper Kupp
AJ Brown
Darrell Henderson
Julio Jones
Robert Woods
Jeremy McNichols
Van Jefferson
Geoff Swaim
Adrian Peterson
Anthony Firkser
Tyler Higbee
.Matt Gay
Rodney Bullock
Sony Michel
Chester Rodgers
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine
Marcus Johnson

Kickers and defenses:

If you were dead set on using a defense in this contest I could co-sign on the Rams. While on paper, the Titans do have several weapons still available to them there is a non zero percentage chance that they will struggle to change their play style and the Rams newly upgraded defensive front could be in the Titan’s backfield all day leading to sack and turnovers. As far as kickers go, it may be difficult to find cheaper priced guys that can provide you with the same upside in a 51 total game so if you want to go for a kicker as your final piece I would not be against it.

It is time folks and I hope that WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 9 WDS Stoweby’s WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 9 Titans at Rams 11.7 helps you towards your goals. It is time to start digging into DFS and make sure that we have our processes in place for a successful 2021 NFL campaign. If you have any questions about the article or anything else, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

3 years ago 0 comments

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Week 9 NFL DFS Thursday Night Showdown: Jets at Colts

Antonio D'Arcangelis 3 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

The NFL DFS season continues with the Thursday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the first Week 9 NFL DFS contests!

NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy, see the Week 1 TNF showdown article.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 9 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Week 9 NFL DFS Chalk: Carson Wentz (FD $16,500, DK $16,200)

Pivot: Mike White (FD $14,000, DK $14,700)

Pivot #2: Jonathan Taylor (FD $16,000, DK $17,400)

Contrarian #1: Michael Pittman, Jr. (FD $13,500, DK $15,300)

Contrarian #2: Jamison Crowder (FD $11,000, DK $11,700)

The options are wide open this week for the showdown slate, and we’re looking at a huge range of possibilities considering the play of Mike White and the Jets offense last week — especially considering the general unease that Carson Wentz unleashes when he becomes the chalk play at CPT. We’ve got a huge spread over 10 points and plenty of leverage if we can find ways to get a little contrarian.

Colts notes: Indy’s offense has been pretty potent over the past few games, and if the recent track record of both these teams’ are any indication of tonight’s narrative, we’ll see the Colts jump out to a lead and then let the Jets pile up some yardage and fantasy goodness during the final quarter or so. Primary targets beyond Wentz include a very expensive Jonathan Taylor, who might be a decent fade if you want to get a little different. The Colts interior offensive line has had some issues getting a push and it’s likely the Jets (behind the stellar play of DL Quinnen Williams) will focus on stopping the run. I can’t see the Jets having an easy time stopping Michael Pittman, Jr., who has perhaps the highest upside of any skill position player if he gets cooking early and the Colts refuse to let off the gas — a lesson they should have learned last week. Zach Pascal, Mo Alie-Cox and RB Nyheim Hines are all secondary options to the Colts big three, but I’ll mix in a few shares.

Jets notes: White seems like a must-play this week, and he along with Michael Carter and Jamison Crowder are the top targets for this showdown. With Corey Davis doubtful, both Braxton Berrios and Elijah Moore are in play and should get plenty of looks, especially if the Colts focus on removing Crowder. Ty Johnson should also be in the mix as the change-of-pace back and frequent check-down target.

Week 9 NFL DFS Final thoughts (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on an NFL DFS narrative that makes sense.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together

DON’T: Worry about spending every dollar.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.

DON’T: Play around sub-$1K range this week. Nothing much doing down there except Ashton Dulin ($300 at FLEX), so just look for the right narrative with your medium-priced builds,

Now that we’ve established some Week 6 NFL DFS narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

Carson Wentz
Mike White
Michael Pittman, Jr.
Jonathan Taylor
Michael Carter
Jamison Crowder
Braxton Berrios
Zach Pascal
Colts DST
Nyheim Hines
Ty Johnson
Elijah Moore
Michael Badgley
Mo Alie-Cox
Jack Doyle
Matt Ammendola
Tyler Kroft
Keelan Cole, Sr.
Denzel Mims
Jets DST
Ryan Griffin
Ashton Dulin

Don’t forget to read the rest of WinDaily’s excellent football articles this week as you prep for Week 9 action!

3 years ago 0 comments

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Week 8 NFL DFS Monday Night Showdown: Giants at Chiefs

Antonio D'Arcangelis 3 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

The NFL DFS season continues with the Monday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the final Week 8 NFL DFS contests!

NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy, see my first showdown article of 2021.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 8 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Week 6 NFL DFS Chalk: Patrick Mahomes (FD $17,000, DK $18,000)

Pivot: Daniel Jones (FD $15,000, DK $15,300)

Contrarian #1: Tyreek Hill (FD $14,000, DK $16,000)

Contrarian #2: Travis Kelce (FD $13,500, DK $15,900)

Contrarian #3: Sterling Shepard (FD $11,000, DK $10,500)

While Patrick Mahomes has struggled in recent weeks and looks a far cry from his normal dominant self, he’s the chalk at captain in this week’s showdown and should have little trouble racking up big numbers in this favorable matchup. If the Chiefs establish some sort of effective ground game or just jump out to a big early lead, there may be some leverage in using Daniel Jones at captain and flanking him with some of the Giants pass receivers, including two guys who are both questionable heading into the Monday night battle: Sterling Shepard and Kadarius Toney. Toney is the real wild card this week, as he can be used in myriad ways and the “Q” tag will keep most of the masses off of him in their initial builds.

Chiefs notes: The usual suspects are in play for Kansas City, including Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill, both of whom can you can fit in builds with Mahomes if you adopt the narrative that the ancillary Giants pass receivers are the ones who end up making the most impact. This is a “get right” spot for the Chiefs and I doubt they’ll have little trouble effectively targeting their big guns against a middle-of-the-road NFL defense like this Giants unit. The game script certainly favors more Darrel Williams this week, so picking one of Kelce or Hill and stacking with Mahomes and the Chiefs RB makes a lot of sense. I really think this is another big Tyreek game, so he’s going to be my main focus outside of Mahomes.

Giants notes: Shepard looks like a go, and while I do love me some Darius Slayton, if Shepard plays he’s probably the safer option. Slayton makes for a fine plug-n-play if Toney ends up sitting this out, but the Giants have been finding ways of getting the electric rookie RW the ball, even if it means sacrificing some of the targets that go to TE Evan Engram, who’s also in play tonight. With Saquon Barkley still out, Devontae Booker remains the got-to RB in the Giants backfield and should see plenty of touches, but his upside is a bit capped unless the Giants hang can early and often. Dante Pettis and John Ross could see a big play here or there, but the return of Shepard dings their value a bit.

Week 8 NFL DFS Final thoughts (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together.

DON’T: Feature many shares of the Giants DST, who will have its hands full with this Chiefs offense.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.

DON’T: Forget about the fringe Giants WRs, especially if one or more of Shepard or Toney sits.

Patrick Mahomes
Tyreek Hill
Daniel Jones
Travis Kelce
Sterling Shepard
Darrel Williams
Kadarius Toney (GTD)
Devontae Booker
Chiefs DST
Darius Slayton
Mecole Hardman
Evan Engram
Dante Pettis
Jerick McKinnon
Harrison Butker
Graham Gano
Byron Pringle
Kyle Rudolph
John Ross
DeMarcus Robinson

Don’t forget to read the rest of WinDaily’s excellent football articles this week as you prep for next week’s action!

3 years ago 0 comments

NFL

WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 8 Cowboys at Vikings 10.31

Allan Fabrykant 3 years ago

written by Allan Fabrykant

***Quick shoutout to our subscriber Warner Bros who in just a few short weeks with us has binked in two different showdown slates leading to over 34K in winnings. Keep it up and welcome to the team!

Vegas Script: Total: 51, Vikings -3

The game script tonight still is not known as of 3:00 PM EST. It all hinges on the calf of one Dak Prescott so these plays can change drastically based on whether or not Prescott suits up. Currently, I am writing this under the assumption that Prescott suits up. If Dak end up being out or if you think he gives it a go and leaves the game early I am recommending caution on Cowboy’s receivers and giving a bump to both Elliott, Pollard, and Schultz.

Captains:

Chalk: Dalvin Cook, $14,100

A healthy Dalvin Cook listed as the 5th priced player in a showdown slate is simply a mispricing on the part of DraftKings and due to that error, we will likely see him as the highest rostered captain in the game. When healthy he is a near-lock for 20+ carries and 4-6 targets in the passing game and his props tell me that Vegas feels the same with a 3.5 catch prop with 114.5 total yards and the best odds to score on the game at -150. Add that up and we have a 21 DK point total as the baseline

Pivot: Dak Prescott, $16,800

The only reason Dak isn’t at the top of this list today is the lingering concern with if calf injury but at the end of the day if you expect him to suit up and play he is a prime candidate for a pivot captain. Even if he lacks mobility tonight he has a great offensive line, a wide variety of offensive skill players to throw to, and the Vikings aren’t the type of defense that strikes fear into the hearts and minds of offensive coordinators. If you get a chance, watch him in pregame warmups and get a feel for how he looks before locking him in. You know the cameras will be following him around during the warmups

Contrarian #1: Ceedee Lamb, $14,700

Lamb went ham in week six bringing in 9 of 11 targets for 149 yards and two TD’s against a defense that is arguably better in the New England Patriots. With Dak nursing an injury he is going to lead to lean on his playmakers to make up for his limited mobility. That leads me to believe that we are going to see a little more in the short passing game to keep Dak safe increasing the target valume for Ceedee as he will be used as a safety valve in the middle of the field.

Contrarian #2: Justin Jefferson, $15,000

I have been going back and forth on Lamb or Jefferson as my first contrarian play but one thing led me to go with Ceedee over Justin. Primetime Kirk Cousins is a thing. Whenever the spotlight shines on him he tends to underperform more often than not so I will have a bit more Ceedee than Justin in my captain spot. Well, I guess two things, I also have the slightest bit of concern that Diggs may be able to hang with Jefferson just enough to slow him down a bit. Not stop, but slow down.

Contrarian#3: Ezekiel Elliott, $13,800

The number of people shouting that Zeke was washed after week one was mind-boggling. After five straight games with no less than 17.7 DK points people have quietly taken their L and gone home. Zeke is good folks, it doesn’t matter if you think Pollard is better, Jerry loves the guy, and he is still the number one. As I mentioned with Ceedee I expect the Cowboys to script their offensive game plan to keep their franchise quarterback safe if he suits up. What that means for most teams is a heavy dose of the run game and Zeke should reasonably be expected to gash the Vikings front.

WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 8 Cowboys at Vikings 10.31:

Dalvin Cook
Dak Prescott
Ceedee Lamb
Justin Jefferson
Ezekiel Elliott
Kirk Cousins
Adam Thielen
Amari Cooper
Dalton Shultz
Tony Pollard
KJ Osborn
Cedrick Wilson
Tyler Conklin
Greg Zuerlein
Greg Joseph
Blake Jarwin
Noah Brown
Alexander Mattinson
Cowboys D
Vikings D

Kickers and defenses:

I am not going to be running the kickers or defenses in my main builds tonight. But, if you are going to run a lineup or two out there where you expect primetime Cousins to rear his ugly head, or if you think the calf injury causes Dak to struggle or leave the game early and Cooper Rush takes over I can see a case where playing the defenses or kickers as viable. There is a reasonable, albeit small chance that this game falls completely flat due to the quarterback situation tonight. If you are building 10+ lineups, consider doing one or two builds where you script one or both teams struggling to give yourself a complete contrarian build in a 51 total game.

It is time folks and I hope that WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 8 Cowboys at Vikings 10.31 helps you towards your goals. It is time to start digging into DFS and make sure that we have our processes in place for a successful 2021 NFL campaign. If you have any questions about the article or anything else, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

3 years ago 0 comments

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Week 6 NFL DFS Monday Night Showdown: Bills at Titans

Antonio D'Arcangelis 4 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

The NFL DFS season continues with the Monday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the final Week 6 NFL DFS contests!

NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy, see my first showdown article of 2021.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 6 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Week 6 NFL DFS Chalk: Josh Allen (FD $17,000, DK $19,200)

Pivot: Derrick Henry (FD $15,500, DK $17,100)

Contrarian #1: Stefon Diggs (FD $12,500, DK $14,400)

Contrarian #2: Ryan Tannehill (FD $14,000, DK $14,700)

Contrarian #3: Emmanuel Sanders (FD $10,000, DK $12,900)

The clear chalk on tonight’s showdown is Josh Allen, who started off slowly the first two weeks but has picked up the pace and is putting up numbers similar to his 2020 breakout campaign — averaging around 33 DK points over his last three weeks. While the standard pivot will be Titans RB Derrick Henry, the stud tailback will have a tough matchup against a stout Bills run defense that ranks fist in the league against fantasy RBs. There’s no standout bargain option under $10K at captain unless we consider a risky Julio Jones or the kicker/defense route.

Bills notes: I’m most interested in the productive trio of Stefon Diggs, TE Dawson Knox and RB Zack Moss, but both Emmanuel Sanders and Devin Singletary are in play for the Bills this week as well — as Allen has done a great job the past two seasons of spreading the ball around to many different skill positions and options. We could see monster games from both Diggs and Sanders, as the Titans defense doesn’t have anyone to keep with either of their route running skills and speed/separation abilities. Slot maven Cole Beasley has ben relatively quiet thus far in 2021, but he could have a breakout at any moment.

Titans notes: The best move is to probably fade Henry in most builds and count on a negative game script for Ryan Tannehill and the Titans passing game, working in shares of Jones, TE Anthony Firkser and stud WR A.J. Brown, who is questionable with an illness but is expected to be available. Aside from that, we have the disappointing but potent Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, a questionable Chester Rogers (groin) and an uncertain backfield after Henry, who could log more receptions than usual this week but will have a tough time returning value at that salary.

Week 6 NFL DFS Final thoughts (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together.

DON’T: Feature many shares of the Titans DST, who will have its hands full with this Bills juggernaut offense.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.

DON’T: Forget about Westbrook-Ikhine and Beasley.

Josh Allen
Ryan Tannehill
Stefon Diggs
Zack Moss
Emmanuel Sanders
A.J. Brown
Derrick Henry
Julio Jones
Dawson Knox
Anthony Firkser
Bills DST
Devin Singletary
Tyler Bass
Randy Bullock
Cole Beasley
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine
Gabriel Davis
Chester Rogers
MyCole Pruitt
Titans DST

Don’t forget to read the rest of WinDaily’s excellent football articles this week as you prep for next week’s action!

4 years ago 0 comments

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DraftKings Showdown

Week 11 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Week 11 NFL DFS Chalk: Mac Jones (FD $15,000, DK $15,900)

Pivot: Matt Ryan (FD $15,500, DK $13,200)

Pivot #2: Damien Harris (FD $13,500, DK $13,200)

Pivot #3: Kyle Pitts (FD $12,000, DK $14,400)

Contrarian #1: Jakobi Meyers (FD $10,500, DK $12,000)

Contrarian #2: Patriots DST (DK $8,400)

Week 11 NFL DFS Final thoughts (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Week 10 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Week 10 NFL DFS Chalk: Cooper Kupp (FD $16,000, DK $18,000)

Pivot: Matthew Stafford (FD $17,000, DK $16,200)

Contrarian #1: Darrell Henderson (FD $12,000, DK $13,800)

Contrarian #2: Jimmy Garappolo (FD $14,000, DK $15,000)

Contrarian #3: Brandon Aiyuk (FD $7,500, DK $9,900)

Week 10 NFL DFS Final thoughts (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Vegas Script: Total: 52.5, Chiefs -2.5

Captains:

Chalk: Patrick Mahomes, $18,600:

Pivot: Derek Carr, $15,900 :

Contrarian #1: Darren Waller, $14,400 :

Contrarian #2: Travis Kelce, $15,000 :

Contrarian #3: Josh Jacobs, $13,000 :

WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 10 Chiefs at Raiders 11.14. Flex plays:

Kickers and defenses:

Week 10 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Week 10 NFL DFS Chalk: Lamar Jackson (FD $17,500, DK $20,700)

Pivot: Mark Andrews (FD $13,000, DK $13,200)

Pivot #2: Marquise Brown (FD $13,500, DK $16,500)

Pivot #3: Jaylen Waddle (FD $12,000, DK $12,300)

Contrarian #1: DeVonta Freeman (FD $10,500, DK $9,900)

Contrarian #2: Mike Gesicki (FD $12,500, DK $11,100)

Week 10 NFL DFS Final thoughts (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Week 9 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Week 9 NFL DFS Chalk: Najee Harris (FD $16,500, DK $18,600)

Pivot: Ben Roethlisberger (FD $15,000, DK $15,900)

Contrarian #1: Diontae Johnson (FD $13,500, DK $16,800)

Contrarian #2: Justin Fields (FD $14,000, DK $15,600)

Contrarian #3: David Montgomery (FD $13,000, DK $12,600)

Week 9 NFL DFS Final thoughts (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Vegas Script: Total: 53, Rams -7.5

Captains:

Chalk: Matt Stafford $19,200:

Pivot: Ryan Tannehill, $14,700:

Contrarian #1: Cooper Kupp, $18,600:

Contrarian #2: AJ Brown, $15,300:

Contrarian #3: Darrell Henderson, $13,800:

WDS Stoweby’s WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 9 Titans at Rams 11.7 Flex plays:

Kickers and defenses:

Week 9 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Week 9 NFL DFS Chalk: Carson Wentz (FD $16,500, DK $16,200)

Pivot: Mike White (FD $14,000, DK $14,700)

Pivot #2: Jonathan Taylor (FD $16,000, DK $17,400)

Contrarian #1: Michael Pittman, Jr. (FD $13,500, DK $15,300)

Contrarian #2: Jamison Crowder (FD $11,000, DK $11,700)

Week 9 NFL DFS Final thoughts (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Week 8 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Week 6 NFL DFS Chalk: Patrick Mahomes (FD $17,000, DK $18,000)

Pivot: Daniel Jones (FD $15,000, DK $15,300)

Contrarian #1: Tyreek Hill (FD $14,000, DK $16,000)

Contrarian #2: Travis Kelce (FD $13,500, DK $15,900)

Contrarian #3: Sterling Shepard (FD $11,000, DK $10,500)

Week 8 NFL DFS Final thoughts (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Vegas Script: Total: 51, Vikings -3

Captains:

Chalk: Dalvin Cook, $14,100

Pivot: Dak Prescott, $16,800

Contrarian #1: Ceedee Lamb, $14,700

Contrarian #2: Justin Jefferson, $15,000

Contrarian#3: Ezekiel Elliott, $13,800

WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 8 Cowboys at Vikings 10.31:

Kickers and defenses:

Week 6 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Week 6 NFL DFS Chalk: Josh Allen (FD $17,000, DK $19,200)

Pivot: Derrick Henry (FD $15,500, DK $17,100)

Contrarian #1: Stefon Diggs (FD $12,500, DK $14,400)

Contrarian #2: Ryan Tannehill (FD $14,000, DK $14,700)

Contrarian #3: Emmanuel Sanders (FD $10,000, DK $12,900)

Week 6 NFL DFS Final thoughts (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

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