draftkings mlb dfs picks

Welcome to the Friday, July 16th edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!

If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather to walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!

Main Slate Breakdown

Welcome back from the All-Star Break my MLB DFS Picks and Pivots friends and family as we enter back into our first slate of the second half of the season where we have 14 games scheduled with rain concerns and potential COVID related issues in NY/BOS to watch for! Welcome back baseball.

When looking over this slate, we have a ton of landmines – we have rain, COVID, double-header games, and a handful of teams that have not even announced an official starting pitcher which makes this early day outline that much tougher.

However, when we have slates like this, I think going into it with a plan of “knowns” is critical because it allows you a well-articulated plan that has swerved away from the risk and means you are not left scrambling later.

Let’s start with the obvious – you have Coors Field, with the Dodgers against Antonio Senzatela who is allowing the highest hard contact rate in all of baseball this season. It is Coors Field with warm temperatures and 9-10 MPH winds blowing out – stacking the Dodgers is obvious, but on a 14 game slate, there are simply so many other ways we can “get different” that I am far less worried about ownership.

The other late-night stack I love is the Chicago Cubs against Madison Bumgarner in Chase Field. The Cubs may be on the verge of a firesale and have started the process with Joc Pederson getting traded last night, but if there was ever a going-away party for these right-handed batters, well it is this spot tonight.

Mad-Bum is giving up a .217 ISO, 46% fly-ball rate, and a 41% hard contact rate to right-handed batters this season, and that HC rate is the second-highest to RHB of any qualified arm in baseball this season.

The Cubs bats are loaded with left-handed killers – with Wilson Contreras, Kris Bryant and Javier Baez sporting .253, .377 and .349 ISO marks respectively this season.

Mad Bum relies on his cutter nearly 35% of the time to RHB, and he is giving up his highest ISO mark, at .278, of any of his potches to RHB this season. Contreras (.733), Baez (.333) and Bryant (.545) all have ISO marks that match up well and make them an ideal mini-stack with the Dodgers or a potential pivot off the chalky LA bats.

Alright – so we started off with two super high-priced stacks and you are probably thinking – how on Earth does this 2Lock moron expect to build a line-up with all the high-priced bats? Where is he going to get cheap arms?

Well, buckle up kiddos – this is where it gets fun (or terrible).

There is an arm today that has made 16 starts on the season, going for 25+ DK points in three of them and conversely going for negative points in two of them. Taking it a step further, they have gone for 15+ DK points in 40% of their starts and 9 or lower in the other 40%.

Basically the definition of a two true outcomes pitcher with GPP appeal and massive downside. Welcome to the Chris Paddack ($6.3K) party.

Now the easy retort here is Paddack faced Washington in his last start before the break and gave up 9 runs (8 ER) in just 2 innings for his worst start of the year. However, simply looking at game logs is about as meaningful as quoting BvP or talking about humidity – so take a second to dig deeper with me.

In that game, Paddack had an absurd .615 BABIP with a 62% ground ball rate and outside of a Juan Soto home run, all of the rest of the hits were singles so let’s not act like he was pitching BP to Pete Alonso in the HR Derby here.

We have seen games this season where Paddack pitched at an ace level and in those games, the formula was fairly simple – first-pitch strikes and relying on his fastball at a high velocity. In that start against the Nationals, his fastball velocity dropped to 94.8 MPH after sitting at 95.3 and 96 MPH against the Reds/Mets in his two best starts in June.

It is absolutely possible there was fatigue at play that caused the velocity drop but you are also seeing wild ebbs and flows in his spin rate in recent starts as Baseball Savant so perfectly illustrates.

The funny thing about this – his two best starts were June 13th and 18th – right in line with this wild spin rate drop where he moved away from the breaking stuff and went heavy on his fastball instead.

This could be another case, like we are seeing around Major League baseball, of arms having to adjust on the fly to “new rules” and while the downside is documented – so too is the upside – and I am sorry, but you are getting an arm who was $9.4K just a month ago at $6.3K tonight and when we want bats – THIS is how you get there without sacrificing K upside.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up

This MLB DFS Picks and Pivots slate tonight is going to be one that requires you to be active – with COVID and rain concerns AND pitchers confirmed throughout the day if you are not able to be actively engaged in your builds – take the day.

To me, this slate is about bat – with the Dodgers and Cubs standing out as incredible plays and it means using value arms to get there, but I think we have a GPP winning arm with double-digit K upside that could be the key to unlocking it all!

Good luck tonight all! Let’s keep that hot streak rolling! Come join the Win Daily Sports Team – grab a Gold Membership and take advantage of all the tools, articles, and expert coaching we can give you to make you a consistent winner in DFS.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Welcome to the Friday, July 9th edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!

If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather to walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!

Main Slate Breakdown

Welcome into a 14 game MLB DFS Picks and Pivots slate here on Friday Night where we finally start to get some weather clearing but unfortunately the DFS gods have decided to make this pitching slate one of the more unappealing ones we have had in weeks.

With some really inflated pricing at the top end, I think living in the mid to low range with arms is the most appealing approach today as it will allow you to anchor to strong double team stacks on a night where I think nailing offense and simply avoiding landmines at pitcher is the key.

Kenta Maeda ($7.1K) was our sub 5% gem his last start out against Kansas City and after a 10 K outing, my guess is the price jump from $6.2K is not nearly enough to keep the masses away. Maeda was simply fantastic in that game, pounding the zone with 75% first-pitch strikes which was a season-high and which led to another season-high – nearly 50% of swings on pitches outside the zone. That ability to get ahead of hitters early and force them to chase outside the zone once behind in the count seems like a simple “playbook” for pitchers to follow and when executed like he did last start, you see the ceiling.

Today he gets a Tigers team that ranks second in all of baseball with K rate against RHP at 26% and their projected line-up tonight has a 28% K rate against right-handed pitching this season. Maeda will no doubt be more popular, but for good reason, and on a slate where we lack “must-have” arms, I am fine taking the price discount here on a ceiling arm in a plus match-up.

There is another arm in this range that I love for GPP’s, especially considering anyone looking at the price point likely looks to Maeda or Alek Manoah ($7K) who gets to face a Rays team he just struck out 10 times and well, go back and watch his command and usage of the slider and you will see why he will be popular today.

What if I told you there was an arm tonight that ranks 3rd in all of baseball in K rate over the last month with a 36.1% K rate and ranks 4th in baseball in CSW% and gets to race a team that ranks 8th in all of baseball in K rate against their handedness?

Interested?

You should be.

Enter Zach Thompson ($6.9K) who will take on the Braves for the third time this season, after going 5 & 6 innings in his first two outings against them with 6 K’s each and 16 & 25 DK points.

Not only have the strikeouts been there for Thompson but this match-up is one that right-handed arms have been excelling in for weeks now.

10 of the last 25 RHP to take on the Braves have gone for 20+ DK points with 20 of the 25 putting up double-digit DFS outings with 13 of the 25 racking up at least 6 K’s.

The curveball has been his swing and miss offering and well, you can see why. Interestingly enough, the usage on this pitch has grown with each start as he threw it just 16% in his first outing and had it up to a season-high 26% usage in his last start.

Now there is always danger in using a rookie arm his third start around a veteran team like Atlanta but the K stuff is very very real and I love having pivots at price points similar to Maeda/Manoah where we could get a massive ownership advantage if/when these two $7K arms become popular.

Now going with this mid-range of arms means we can pay up for bats and there are two teams I plan to attack tonight.

First is the Philadelphia Phillies (again) against Garrett Richards the Red Sox. Over the last month, Richards has been arguably one of the worst arms in baseball with a 43% hard contact rate allowed which is 6th highest among pitchers with 20 innings of work and his 2.5 HR/9 rate is 9th highest in baseball.

We have talked about it in Picks and Pivots before but Richards has been outspoken about having to adjust on the fly to not using sticky stuff and with the wind blowing out in Fenway at 10 MPH tonight, well it may be another rough outing for an arm trying to reinvent himself mid-season.

Now while Bryce Harper and Rhys Hoskins are pricey, the rest of this team is really under-priced with every single other batter under $4K which makes a full-on Philly stack really easy to build.

The other team that has a nice mix of high-low bats, and also happens to be a visiting team with 9 guaranteed innings of at-bats, is the Chicago White Sox against Jorge Lopez and the horrendous Baltimore pen in Camden Yards.

Piggybacking off the Richards comment, Lopez ranks 20th in all of baseball the last month in hard contact allowed at just under 40%, so there is a great case to be made here to simply attack 2 of the top 20 arms (and the 2 worst on tonight’s slate) in terms of giving up hard contact.

The White Sox offers you some high-priced plays like Jose Abreu, Tim Anderson, and Yoan Moncada but much like the Phillies, you can balance their cost with $3K bats like Brian Goodwin, Gavin Sheets, and Luery Garcia who all have the advantage of the split.

The one thing I have noticed at first blush this morning, building with these teams on DraftKings- they correlate really well from a position perspective which makes mixing and matching based on lineup spots, a very flexible way to attack this slate.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up

Stepping back and looking at this 14 game MLB DFS Picks and Pivots slate, the pitching looks far more treacherous at a macro level than it really is and I think we have multiple paths in this $7K price point that we can utilize that offer strong K upside we can bank on. Doing so allows us to stack the Phillies/White Sox as two visiting teams, in great hitting spots and guaranteed 9 innings of at-bats!

Good luck tonight all! Let’s keep that hot streak rolling! Come join the Win Daily Sports Team – grab a Gold Membership and take advantage of all the tools, articles, and expert coaching we can give you to make you a consistent winner in DFS.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Welcome to the Thursday, July 8th edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!

If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather to walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!

Early Slate Breakdown

Welcome into another split slate MLB DFS Picks and Pivots edition where we get a mid-day three-game slate that actually has some intriguing GPP paths and makes it a worthwhile GPP gamble despite the small player pool size.

I think the first choice you need to come to is which pair of arms you want to anchor to and with Jake Faria/Chi Chi Gonzalez representing a third of the player pool, my guess is most will anchor to the foursome of Lance McCullers Jr., Frankie Montas, Jordan Montgomery, and Logan Gilbert.

No matter which path you chose, my recommendation would be this – use two and stack against the other two – this way you are getting the most direct leverage on a small slate.

Yesterday was a great example of how we can use ownership projections in our Discord to adjust on small slates and that is exactly what we did on Wednesday when we realized that Drew Smyly and Kyle Gibson were the chalk pairing and allowed us to pivot to lower owned options in Sonny Gray and Lance Lynn around our low-owned White Sox stacks.

Today – I think we may have the ability to do much of the same, and I think the likely chalk arm is Jordan Montgomery against the Seattle Mariners. So how do we attack the Yankees left-hander to gain direct leverage?

The short answer is we want the right-handers, as Montgomery has given up a .175 ISO and a near 40% HC rate to RHB since the start of last season and the best play here is Mitch Haniger. This season, Haniger has a massive .272 ISO and 50% hard contact rate against LHP and I think pairing him with either of the Mariners catchers (Luis Torrens or Tom Murphy) who have similar .230+ ISO marks and 40-50% HC rates is the ideal mini-stack starting point.

If you dig into the pitch types for Montgomery, the cutter and the sinker are pitches he throws 40% of the time to RHB and both have .230+ ISO marks and it is no surprise to see Haniger jump off the page with both pitches. Haniger has a .200 ISO and 70% HC rate against the sinker and a .727 ISO and 42% HC rate against the cutter. I think you can guess, I am calling a Haniger home run here.

On a short slate like this, we need to be super strategic in how we stack, and I think one of the most underrated strategies in MLB DFS is to prioritize visiting team stacks that get you 9 innings of guaranteed at-bats.

You may not think it is much, but that one inning means our batters get an 11% increase to rack up at-bats and as you all know – ANY points on a small slate can have MASSIVE swings. We were all sweating it in Discord yesterday as a few subs were up top in GPP’s and a Nate Lowe single late in the game resulted in a $300 swing in their cash position. A single – that’s it.

So that basically brings us to two choices – go all in and stack the visiting Yankees or the road Athletics.

The fact that one faces a heavy ground ball machine in Lance McCullers Jr. and one is taking on a rookie in Logan Gilbert who has surrendered a 45% hard contact rate with fly-ball tendencies tells you which way I am leaning.

So we have worked our way backward – game stacking the Yankees/Mariners bats – attacking Montgomery chalk and stacking the road team, which means we are likely anchoring to a Lance McCullers Jr. and Frankie Montas pitching duo.

Listen, the match-up for both is not one I would likely go after on a full slate but I also would argue they have the highest ceiling of any of the arms today and with a massive pitcher’s umpire in Bill Welke by the plate, who calls 12% more strikes than the average umpire, I think this is the most direct path to take early.

Let’s keep an eye on ownership and talk through plays in Discord – ownership very rarely plays out like I expect it should so if we get thrown a curveball, let’s use Discord to talk through it!

Main Slate Overview

We turn to the 7 game MLB DFS Picks and Pivots Main Slate and well, as you can see below from our friend, Mark Paquette – this could end up a 4 game slate in no time.

After Jacob deGrom’s mess two nights ago and Zack Wheeler struggling through the rain in Wrigley, I think we can all agree we are sick of trying to play amateur weatherman and tonight rain could take away not only the best offense (Blue Jays) but an under-priced chalky SP2 in Alek Manoah.

So here is what I am going to do – I am going to cross off the three games with rain risk and start my research process where everyone may have to pivot to later. This way if the rain plays out we will already have that clear path outlined.

Not only does San Diego have the Channel 4 News team headlined by Veronica Corningstone, but they also have clear skies and Max Scherzer versus Yu Darvish tonight.

If this really ends up as a four-game slate, I am going to simply lock in the two best arms and go double ace with 30%+ K rate starting pitchers with no weather concerns. That’s it – that’s the analysis. If you treat this like a four-game slate, there are simply no other arms that come close to the ceiling these two have and the reality is, we can get strong offenses alongside them with ease.

So we need value stacks with power upside to make this work huh?

Welcome in JA Happ to the mound as Jared’s favorite MLB DFS punching bag and the Detroit Tigers look like our path to making double aces work with ease.

Happ has given up a .283 ISO, 45% FB rate, and 44% HC rate to RHB this season and a 2.21 HR/9 rate so if you bat from the right side and play for the Tigers, I am interested.

Eric Haase has a massive .510 ISO and 55% HC rate against LHP this season and his C/OF eligibility on DK becomes an amazing piece to use in your core to give you the most flexibility in your Draftkings builds. Shifting him to OF would allow you to go with a double catcher Tigers stack and use Jake Rogers alongside him, who has a .400 ISO and 55% fly-ball rate against lefties this season. Seriously – who else is starting their builds with TWO Tigers catchers – we are.

Finding a secondary stack to go alongside the Tigers tonight and staying away from rain risk, brings me to the Philadelphia Phillies against Adbert Alzolay in Wrigley Field.

Alzolay has one massive red flag – he cannot get lefties out. How does a .339 ISO and 50% hard contact rate sound? Well, probably good if you want to unleash the Phillies left-handed batters.

Alzolay uses his slider nearly 45% of the time against lefties and both Bryce Harper and Didi Gregorious have .300 and .220 ISO marks respectively against that pitch type.

The sinker is the next weapon of choice for the Cubs right-hander and with a .267 ISO mark allowed and a 50% HC rate this season against it, maybe he should not throw it? Well, again – unless you plan on using Bryce Harper, who has a .342 ISO and 55% HC rate against that pitch type.

Honestly, how is Harper not homering multiple times tonight?

Now – one key here tonight, is the status of Odubel Herrera and a big reason is that his continued absence would give us a $2K tree square in Travis Jankowski. The Phillies reserve OF has a .300 ISO against RHP this season and his minimum priced salary opens the door to a double ace/Bryce Harper/Tigers stack with ease.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up

Alright, boys and girls, this MLB DFS Picks and Pivots slate look like a good one and while rain may cause some Main Slate issues, I think we have a path to simply avoid it and still capture massive upside.

Make sure you get into Discord today, especially early, so we can break down ownership and strategy and keep the Win Daily screenshots coming!

Good luck tonight all! Let’s keep that hot streak rolling! Come join the Win Daily Sports Team – grab a Gold Membership and take advantage of all the tools, articles, and expert coaching we can give you to make you a consistent winner in DFS.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Welcome to the Wednesday, July 7th edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!

If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather to walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!

Early Slate Breakdown

Welcome into a split slate MLB DFS Picks and Pivots Wednesday where we kick-off bright and early with a 12:35 PM EST start time on a 5 game slate. Once again we have some early weather risks with thunderstorms expected in-game for the Braves/Pirates and Reds/Royals and after last night’s deGrom rain mess that wiped out 50% of the field, I wonder how many people are going to simply avoid using arms anywhere we have the slightest threat of storms.

If you look at this slate, I think we end up with some serious chalk and heavily concentrated ownership which likely means I play this slate more strategically than simply picking the best plays. With the Rays/Indians game being only 7 innings, it rules those hitters out of my player pool, and with a clear top tier of arms in Lynn, Gibson, and Gray – it likely means the pitching pool for most is concentrated to that grouping.

Of this trio, Sonny Gray ($8.3K) is my favorite spend-up as he has the elite swing and miss ability with a K rate near 31% this season which is the highest mark of any arm on this slate and we get him at a considerable price discount. Assuming he is able to get a slight increase on last game’s workload, 90+ pitches seems likely and at this price point, I think he is the best PP/$ play on the slate.

As far as SP2’s go – I am not in love with anyone, and so ownership will go a long way into how I decide to attack my pitching pairing as I am not willing to eat the chalk on any arm really outside of Gray.

The key on this early slate is to stack up bats and my favorite stack on this early slate is the White Sox against the Twins and RHP Michael Pineda. On the season, Pineda has given up a .225 ISO, 51% fly-ball rate, 37% HC rate and a 2 HR/9 to left-handed batters and the White Sox will likely trot out 6 lefties as the visiting team and a guaranteed 9 innings of at-bats.

While the lefties like Yoan Moncada, Leury Garcia and Brian Goodwin have the splits, do not overlook the right-handed batters as stacking options here. Pineda was only able to through 75 pitches in his minor league start after landing on the IL with forearm inflammation, we can attack hitters from both sides of the plate here knowing we likely get into the Minnesota pen early.

Lance Lynn is likely the chalk SP1, so I love the idea of playing leverage and attacking the Minnesota bats here. Listen, Lynn is a good arm but he has just a 22% K rate against LHB and the Twins are likely are trot out a lineup full of them.

The pitch profile says we want lefties that hit the cutter and fastball well and that is where Jorge Polanco and Max Kepler stand out as top plays in a mini-stack here as they both have .200+ ISO marks against that pitch types with 50%+ hard contact rates.

Going with a full-on game stack with the White Sox and Twins and anchoring to Sonny Gray as my SP1 is my initial outlook on this early slate and watching ownership will be key to making strategic pivots.

Main Slate Overview

Looking at the 9 games Main Slate we have some serious offensive firepower, a lone obvious ace in Zack Wheeler, and a 7 inning DH game for the Mets/Brewers without deGrom/Burnes (boo!)

The decision to lock in Zack Wheeler ($10.3K) as an SP1 is an easy one – both based on slate context and match-up and no team in baseball has struck out more the last month or more against RHP than the Chicago Cubs. Wheeler is the top K arm by a considerable margin and with the match-up as it is – I am not getting cute, he is my SP1.

The decision on SP2 really comes down to one thing – the bats I want – and more on that in a moment, but it means I am willing to take on risk and punt with my SP2.

Adam already called out the stone minimum Castellanos at $4K but let me give you another option – Robert Stock ($4.7K). Now Stock is a journeyman minor leaguer so there is nothing about his profile that is going to make you excited to go here but you have two things working for you in this instance.

First, this is a 7 inning back end of a doubleheader so you could get a very watered-down Brewers line-up that has to face Jacob deGrom in the afternoon and fly home after this game tonight with the Reds awaiting them for a series starting tomorrow. Stock is also stretched out, having thrown 80 pitches in his most recent minor league start which is a big advantage over someone like Castellanos who is not nearly as stretched as a starter.

Also – this dude seems like a wild follow on Twitter so, let’s something.

Now nobody woke up today excited to play Robert Stock but we are in this range because of 2 reasons – Matt Harvey is pitching against Toronto and Patrick Corbin is pitching against San Diego.

Now you understand why we were looking to save salary at SP2 right?

I am not sure there are two pitchers we want to attack more in MLB DFS than these two (OK other than Jon Lester) and I want as many combinations tonight of Zack Wheeler with Blue Jays and Padres bats.

The end.

The nice part about tonight is we have some potential value in San Diego with Webster Rivas ($2.1K) as a punt catcher and as odd as that sounds, it opens up so many paths to making this two-team stack work especially when bats like Vladdy, Tatis and Machado are staring at us.

Watch the line-ups for these two and see if we can parse out 1-2 value pieces like a Profar/Kim on San Diego or if we need, we can go to Danny Jansen is Rivas does not start. This is the path tonight and it is that simple – my bats will be solely from these two teams against two pitchers who give up massive hard contact and get no swings and misses and one we have lineups, it will be key to find the 1-2 punts to find the big bats we covet.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up

These MLB DFS Picks and Pivots split slates can be tricky but I think we have some interesting GPP paths to attack and let’s hope no weather concerns make us pivot last minute.

On the early slate, use ownership and strategy to your advantage and be vocal in Discord today to kick around ideas. On the Main Slate – its Wheeler, Jays and Padres – end scene – the key is finding the value punts to make it work but there is a path with cheap SP2’s and some projected hitting value in our core lineups.

Good luck tonight all! Let’s keep that hot streak rolling! Come join the Win Daily Sports Team – grab a Gold Membership and take advantage of all the tools, articles, and expert coaching we can give you to make you a consistent winner in DFS.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Welcome to the Tuesday, July 6th edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!

If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather to walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!

Main Slate Breakdown

Welcome into a 15 game MLB DFS Picks and Pivots slate where we have some serious ace level arms, some potential rain concerns, and another wind game in Wrigley Field that will likely garner considerable interest once again!

What stands out to me on this slate is how strong the top-tier pitching is – as we have the three best strikeout arms in baseball over the last month all on the slate. Literally – 1,2 and 3 in K rate over the last month with Jacob deGrom (45%), Aaron Nola (36%) and Carlos Rodon (35%).

We talk about it all the time in Picks and Pivots, but K’s are king, and any time we can get high ceiling strikeout studs, my inclination (despite our recent success in punting) is to go double ace builds.

With deGOAT locked into perpetual SP1 status, my preferred pairing is to land him with Carlos Rodon who may get the perfect match-up with a recent run of Twins injuries. The two big right-handed bats in Josh Donaldson and Nelson Cruz were unable to play last night with hamstring and neck injuries and it sounds like both remain very questionable to play tonight, which would be a massive boost to Rodon who just faced this team and struck out 9 batters.

Now anchoring to a double ace build means we need to get creative with our batters and I think there are two teams we can anchor to make it all work.

First off is a team I expect to be chalky – the Philadelphia Phillies against RHP Jake Arrieta.

Now with the temperatures still in the mid 80’s and the wind blowing out at 10 MPH, it may not be as good as last night’s game environment where 7 HR’s were hit, but it is still strong and the Philly pricing is just far too cheap.

Yes – Bryce Harper and Rhys Hoskins are $5K+ investments but that is it – every single other player on this team is in the $3K price range which is exactly where you want to be with a double ace build.

Arrieta has been bad this season and equally bad to hitters from both sides of the plate with a .200 ISO and 40% HC rate allowed to RHB and a .225 ISO and 42% HC rate to LHB so attacking with a full-on stack makes sense.

Let’s be clear – Harper is the primary target and the bat that profiles the best especially against the sinker which is Arrieta’s bread and butter. The Phillies slugger has a massive .346 ISO, 54% HC rate with extreme fly ball tendencies, and a 330-foot average distance traveled. Lock button HR status tonight.

You can pair Harper seemingly with any/all options – honestly, the only guy I likely leave out of my stack is Rhys Hoskins and that is more because of the bloated $5.4K price tag than anything else. The lefties like Odubel Herrera or Didi Gregorious work well in the mid $3K range and while I do like paying down at Catcher most nights, we are getting a nice price discount on JT Realmuto ($3.7K) tonight.

Now going double aces and paying up for a stack like the Phillies means finding true value as a secondary stack and this is where the Baltimore Orioles come into play against LHP Steven Matz.

Matz came off the COVID list and made his first start since being ill, lasting just 2.2 innings with 4 ER’s with only 48 pitches thrown. Matz has been an arm we have picked on all year because he is still giving up HR’s and power to right-handed batters with a 1.4 HR/9 rate on the season.

If you thought Philly was cheap, wait until you see the Baltimore pricing with only one bat (Trey Mancini) over $4K and 5 projected batters sitting under $3K on DraftKings.

You want to target the bats that hit the sinker well, Matz’s primary pitch type to RHB, and well multiple Orioles fit this bill with all of Mancini, Ryan Mountcastle, Anthony Santander, and Austin Hays sporting 200+ ISO marks and 40-50% hard contact rates.

Mountcastle (.600 ISO) and Santander (.425 ISO) both stand out as elite bargain plays with the pitch profile clearly in their benefit but you can also drop down and use some of the true punt value like Pedro Severino at catcher or Pat Valaika/Domingo Leyba at 2B if Maikel Franco remains sidelined. Thankfully this is one of the first games to play so getting this line-up early and knowing the value that exists, will give us better ideas of how we correlate them with the higher-priced Phillies in Wrigley.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up

If you step back and look at this MLB DFS Picks and Pivots slate, the pitching is where I think the priority lies, and going double ace is my preferred route here this evening.

Thankfully we have some clear value bats tonight and under-priced stacks that allow us the opportunity to take this roster path without having to sacrifice upside.

Good luck tonight all! Let’s keep that hot streak rolling! Come join the Win Daily Sports Team – grab a Gold Membership and take advantage of all the tools, articles, and expert coaching we can give you to make you a consistent winner in DFS.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Welcome to the Monday, July 5th edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!

If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather to walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!

Main Slate Breakdown

Before we jump into tonight’s MLB DFS Picks and Pivots slate – can, I just say – WHAT A DAY YESTERDAY! Seeing our team winning big in MLB and NASCAR and having members of our community post screenshot after screenshot with their biggest wins of the season was simply incredible and made the day for myself and the staff. We love to win – we love to see our community win more – I promise you that.

When looking at this nine-game MLB DFS slate tonight, what really stands out to me is the lack of “must-have” pitching and I think Adam nailed it in Starting Rotation that Brandon Woodruff may end up as overwhelming chalk by process of elimination. However, unlike on Saturday Night when Clayton Kershaw was that chalk arm, I think we have viable low-priced pivots tonight that we can use and that is likely where my builds begin.

Tylor Megill ($7.2K) has been incredibly impressive in his first two starts at the big league level against the Braves with a 5 inning, 8 K outing his last time out showing you the ceiling this kid possesses.

The right-hander has flashed a 30% K rate through two starts and this is very much in line with his minor league metrics/profile, so I think the swing and miss upside is something we can bank on to an extent, especially against a Milwaukee projected line-up with a 26% K rate against RHP this season.

On the season, the Brewers rank top 10 in K rate to RHP with one of the highest soft-contact rates and a top 10 ground ball rate which plays into Megill’s 50% ground ball rate that he has flashed in the minors and thus far in the bigs.

The slider is really his biggest swing and miss weapon against right-handed batters with a 50% whiff rate through two starts and we saw Megill ramp up the usage on it going from it being something he threw 20% of the time his first start, up to 30% the second time around.

Milwaukee is projected to have 4-5 right-handed batters in tonight’s lineup and the more the merrier as the RHB have been where the K upside has been thus far with a 36% K rate versus just 22% versus left-handed hitters.

Wily Peralta ($5.2K) is coming off his best outing of the year, with 5 innings of work, 80+ pitches, and 5 K’s on his way to 22 DK points against the Indians and now gets a high K match-up against the Texas Rangers.

The Rangers rank in the top 10 in K rate to right-handed pitchers this season and their projected line-up has a 24% K rate to RHP this year. Peralta uses a heavy four-seamer that operates like a sinker to generate swings and misses and an elevated ground ball rate. The Rangers as a team ranked top 5 in ground ball rate versus RHP with a 45% rate, and after seeing Peralta rack up a 57% GB rate last game, this is a similar path to success this evening.

Going double punt arms is key tonight to allow us to spend on bats- and spend we shall – and it all starts with the San Diego Padres against Jon Lester.

Listen, you guys know the drill with Lester who simply gets walloped by right-handed power, with a near .250 ISO mark allowed and you want him to navigate the right-handed heavy big bats of Tatis, Machado, Pham and Myers? Sure, good luck pal.

His cutter is the pitch we have outlined that you can attack with RHB as he has a .545 ISO mark allowed and Manny Machado specifically has a .684 ISO mark against that pitch type – I know he just homered twice yesterday and won us a lot of money – but how are you not going right back to the well here today?

Not only do we have a Lester Day but we also get the Tampa Bay Rays against Logan Allen who has given up a .348 ISO mark and 45% HC rate to right-handed hitters this season!

Mike Zunino is one of my favorite plays on this slate, with a .545 ISO mark against LHP this season, a near 60% fly-ball rate and he has a 60% HC rate against the FB/Slider combination which is Allen’s go-to nearly 70% of the time. My man is going deep tonight- book it!

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up

I love how this MLB DFS Picks and Pivots slate is setting up with some solid cheap pitching options that allow us to prioritize the big bats of the San Diego Padres tonight in a SMASH spot against Jon Lester and the Nationals bullpen.

With no weather issues to speak of, I think we can really forge this path early in the day and go with a Padres/Rays core build around two arms with high K/high ground ball match-ups that work to their strengths.

Let’s keep crushing family!

Good luck tonight all! Let’s keep that hot streak rolling! Come join the Win Daily Sports Team – grab a Gold Membership and take advantage of all the tools, articles, and expert coaching we can give you to make you a consistent winner in DFS.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Welcome to the Sunday, July 4th edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!

If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather to walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!

Main Slate Breakdown

Opening up this 9 game MLB DFS Picks and Pivots Main Slate on Sunday, the first thing that jumped out to me was how deep the pitching pool was with clear aces up top but also some really strong and under-priced options as we scroll down the available players.

There is a very clear upper SP1 tier with Cole, Peralta, Ray and Giolito and as both Adam and Jared pointed out, the pricing on Charlie Morton ($7.8K) in this spot against the Marlins just screams high PP/$ upside.

The one other arm that jumped out to me for value though was Kenta Maeda ($6.2K) who is now at his season-low price point against the Kansas City Royals today.

Maeda has had an up and down season and it seemed like after a month on the IL with arm/groin injuries, that things were starting to tick back up. Maeda went 4 innings, threw 76 pitches, striking out 7 and giving up just 1 ER on his way to 14 DK points against Seattle, and then went 84 pitches and 5+ innings against Texas with 4 K’s and 16 DK points and things seemed to be trending up.

Then he started against the White Sox last time out and while he threw 92 pitches (good), he walked 5 and gave up 7 ER and hence the price decrease on DK. Here is the thing though – dig into that start a little more and the .444 BABIP and just 22% hard contact rate tell you this was far more bad luck than a pitcher who was getting waxed.

The elevated walk rate is was a true statistical outlier as Maeda had not only walked more than 2 batters all season before that outing and maybe it was a simple result of his turn being PPD on back-to-back days that forced him to lose his feel.

Maeda’s match-up today against a right-handed heavy Royals team is one I think he can exploit as Kansas City ranks bottom 5 in team ISO against RHP and bottom 3 in hard contact with just a 30% hard contact rate.

The Royals also struggle to handle the slider, the primary swing and miss offering that Maeda uses nearly 45% of the time against right-handed batters and with no single right-handed batter with over a 70% contact rate against the pitch type and 4 of the 6 RHB in the projected line-up with 40-50% whiff rates, there is massive bounce-back potential for Maeda in this spot.

Now paying down for pitching today means you can stack some serious bats, and while we may not have Coors Field on this slate, there are plenty of other high octane offenses we can prioritize.

My absolute favorite spot for GPP’s today is in Philadelphia with Blake Snell and Vincent Velazquez on the mound for the Padres and Phillies.

On the season – there are only 5 arms that have given up a 40%+ hard contact rate to right-handed batters – arms like MadBum, Peterson, Civale and Mr. Blake Snell.

Snell’s struggles outside of San Diego have been serious as well, with his K rate dropping from 35% down to 23%, his xFIP nearly doubling from 2.7 up to 5 and his HR/9 rate jumping from .7 to 2.2.

With a 52.5% hard contact rate to RHB this year – it is fire up the Phillies time, especially those with power against high-velocity fastballs like Snells. All of Hoskins, Realmuto and McCutchen have 400+ ISO marks against that pitch type from lefties and Bryce Harper has .300+ ISO marks against both the fastball and slider which are the primary weapons against LHB.

Speaking of high-velocity fastballs that get walloped – welcome in Vinny Velo to the party who has reverse splits that have allowed the right-handed to touch him up for a .225 ISO and 50% fly-ball rate.

Let’s see – who has right-handed power that could possibly take advantage of these splits? Oh yeah – Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr.

The Padres duo has a .300 ISO and 60% HC rates against the fastball velocity from right-handers like VV and average distances of 350+ – yeah, these guys seem like easy HR calls.

We have a hitters umpire, sunny skies and the winds blowing out 5-7 MPH in Philly – welcome to the fireworks my friends, this game stack is going to go nuts!

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up

We have a really solid 9 game MLB DFS slate today and while we have top arms available, I am finding myself looking more towards a cheap Morton/Maeda pairing on DK where I can lock in a high power game stack in Philadelphia with two arms that give up massive hard contact.

Good luck tonight all! Let’s keep that hot streak rolling! Come join the Win Daily Sports Team – grab a Gold Membership and take advantage of all the tools, articles, and expert coaching we can give you to make you a consistent winner in DFS.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Welcome to the Saturday, July 3rd edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!

If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather to walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!

Early Slate Breakdown

Welcome into a split slate Saturday of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we start the day with a solid 6 game slate that has high strikeout arms at all tiers and some sneaky offenses that are in strong spots.

While the top-tier arms are certainly playable, I am in lockstep with Adam after peaking at Starting Rotation – we have two under-priced high K options in Tarik Skubal and Kyle Muller that allow us really to capture upside without paying a premium.

Paying down for this duo allows me to pay up for bats and that starts with the San Diego Padres against RHP Zach Eflin in Philadelphia. Eflin is giving up a 44% hard contact rate and matching 44% fly-ball rate to left-handed batters this season and his slider/sinker combination match-up perfectly with the batted ball profiles of Eric Hosmer, Jake Cronenworth and Trent Grisham. Ideally, you can work the left-handed bats here around the stars in the middle with Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado and anchor to arguably the most talented offense on this early slate.

The Reds left-handed bats are where I would correlate as they face Adbert Alzolay who is giving up a .311 ISO and 50% HC rate to left-handed batters and has to face them in Great American Ballpark where we know the ball can fly.

Jesse Winker profiles extremely well here against the slider/sinker tendencies of Alzolay and I would argue he is one of the premium bats on this early slate with massive ISO and HC rates against both the Cubs pitch types to left-handed batters.

If the Padres game gets rained out or if it’s too risky – I think staying in this Cincinnati game with a game stack of bats could work well. Tyler Mahle has extreme splits with a .223 ISO mark to right-handed batters this season and his primary offering, the slider, which he throws 45% of the time to RHB has been hit to the tune of a .260 ISO.

Patrick Wisdom has serious numbers against this pitch type with a massive .353 ISO and average distance traveled of 399 feet off this pitch type from RHP. Sneaky HR call of the day right here with the winds blowing out in GABP and a massive hitter’s umpire.

Main Slate Breakdown

The 7 game MLB DFS Pick and Pivots Main Slate is far less forgiving with arms as Clayton Kershaw is essentially a must-play on a slate without a single other even average option. Due to the fact Kershaw is a near lock button play, it will mean a lot of similar lineup builds and constructions so we need to think a little strategically on this Main Slate.

One way to gain leverage – use the arms in Coors Field, specifically a high ground ball arm like Kyle Freeland ($5.9K). Over his last 10 home starts, Freeland has shown the boom or bust nature with 2 starts of 20+ DK points and 4 games where he went full negative (Ponce De Leon style).

Freeland is coming off back to back strong outings with 7 K’s in each game which is intriguing considering we typically view him as a high ground ball pitcher so these swings and misses give him more wiggle room if he does get himself in trouble. At under $6K tonight – he could pay off in a big way and give us leverage on Cardinals chalk night.

With Garret Richards on the mound and in the midst of a disastrous run of starts that have coincided with the sticky stuff crackdown – I am going right back to the Oakland Athletics and attacking a pitcher who has been absolutely waxed the last 4 starts. The A’s offense is priced fairly and with 50% hard contract rates to hitters from both sides of the plate – do not be afraid to mix and match the lefties and righties for the A’s here as a full 5 man stack could pay off in GPP’s.

The other mini stack I love here tonight is the Los Angeles Dodgers and a lot of that has to do with the pricing as we can get Cody Bellinger ($3.7K) at a significant discount against RHP Pablo Espino who is giving up a 45% HC rate to LHB. This is a spot where the Dodgers lefties like Bellinger, Gavin Lux and Max Muncy can allow you to mini-stack the splits and then attack the Nationals bullpen with Espino still not fully stretched out.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up

These two MLB DFS slates today play very differently in that the early slate has a plethora of arms and multiple solid stacks which allow you to play it more as “best plays.”

The Main Slate though in my mind is far more strategic and I am going to be heavily interested in ownership. With Kershaw feeling like a must have, I think builds will look and feel the same and so finding leverage off the chalk bats, and pivot stacks, is going to be my primary focus this evening.

Good luck tonight all! Let’s keep that hot streak rolling! Come join the Win Daily Sports Team – grab a Gold Membership and take advantage of all the tools, articles, and expert coaching we can give you to make you a consistent winner in DFS.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!