DFS & Sports Betting Tools, Exclusive Content, and Expert Chat
Pricing
GET STARTED TODAY
 
thumbs-up-solid
DFS & Sports Betting Tools, Exclusive Content, and Expert Chat
Pricing
GET STARTED TODAY
 
thumbs-up-solid
Pricing
GET STARTED TODAY
thumbs-up-solid
Pricing
GET STARTED TODAY
Home / DraftKings GPP / Page 5
Tag:

DraftKings GPP

NFL

Stoweby’s Showdown For 10.5 Falcons at Packers

David Stowe
written by David Stowe

Welcome to week 4 ladies and gentlemen! Hopefully we are all taking a look at this shortly after counting all of our winnings from the main slate. We have another fantastic fantasy matchup this evening. We have a ton of injuries so there should be points to be had for minimal cost and plenty of solid opportunities to take advantage of. Let’s not waste anymore time get into Stoweby’s Showdown For 10.4 Falcons at Packers.

Week 4 NFL DFS Introduction to Single-Game Showdowns

DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.

My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.

If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 4 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points) Stoweby’s Showdown Falcons at Packers:

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

*Game Note: I’m going under the assumption that Adams will remain out.

With the number of injuries for both teams something has to give, I’m not really sure how they’ll hit the 56.5 total but that’s why we play. I have the expectation that Green Bay is going very run heavy due to the injuries and they will likely be successful in doing so. Aaron Jones and even Jamal Williams are going to be prioritized in my lineups over most the Packers pass catchers sans MVS. Atlanta is a little trickier, they are also injured but to this point everyone is still playing and they are 9 point dogs so the most logical route is leaning on two pass catchers and Matt Ryan.

Chalk: Aaron Jones $16,200

Pivot: Aaron Rodgers $17,100

Contrarian #1: Matt Ryan $15,000

Contrarian #2: Marquez Valdez-Scantling $10,500

Contrarian #3: Todd Gurley $12,300

***Extra Captain Play: Calvin Ridley or Julio Jones (If you think the Vegas total is correct and you expect the Falcons to play from behind they both need to be considered even injured)

Stoweby’s Showdown for 10.5 Falcons at Packers Flex Plays: (All captains are viable flex’s)

To talk flex plays I need to talk script. The expectation according to the Vegas total of 56.5 and the -7 to the Packers the Falcons will be throwing a ton to catch up and the Packers will likely spend a large part of the second half grinding clock out. It makes a lot of sense that they run quite a bit either way given the number of receivers injuries for the Packers. The same could reasonably be said for the Falcons but it’s clear that they do not have the same luxury that the Packers half. So my script for the majority of my lineups will be pass catchers for the Falcons, a minimum of one Green Bay running back in every lineup (sometimes two), and only one Green Bay pass catcher maximum as I think they won’t be used a ton late.

Falcons: Russell Gage, Hayden Hurst, Brian Hill

Packers: Jamal Williams, Robert Tonyan, Jace Sternberger, Malik Taylor

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Stoweby’s Showdown For 10.5 Falcons at Packers. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

0 comments
0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
NFL

Stoweby’s Showdown For 9.27 Packers at Saints

David Stowe
written by David Stowe

Welcome to week 3 ladies and gentlemen! We have ourselves what would have been an amazing contest but two key injuries knocked us down a notch. It’s still an interesting game with an interesting narrative and a pretty concentrated played pool. I’m let’s not waste anymore time and get into Stoweby’s Showdown for 9.27 Packers at Saints!

Week 3 NFL DFS Introduction to Single-Game Showdowns

DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.

My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.

If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 3 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points) Stoweby’s Showdown Packers at Saints:

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

Chalk: Alvin Kamara $17,700 Aaron Jones $17,100

Pivot: Aaron Rodgers $16,500

Contrarian #1: Latavius Murray $4,200

Contrarian #2: Marquez Valdez-Scantling $10,200

Contrarian #3: Jared Cook $11,400

First thing and I think it’s not a surprise that Alvin Kamara and Aaron Jones are going to be 1a and 1b in terms of ownership both overall and in the captain spot. Aaron Rodgers is without his top overall weapon as is Drew Brees which limits both teams due to lack of depth at the position. You will be hard pressed to find many lineups tonight who don’t fit both guys into it even at those high prices. Vegas currently has Green Bay as 3.5 point dogs which with the way they have looked thus far feels off. I know it’s the Superdome, but it’s an empty Superdome. At first glance I felt like this should be a pick-um and I’m standing by that. If you noticed above there is one top player that I don’t have as a potential captain and he just so happens to be the 41 year old QB who only attempted one throw of more than 20 yards last week in a game where they were trailing for the majority of the second half. It’s clear, Brees needs Thomas to be effective and in order to win they will need a heavy dose of Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray to accomplish that tonight. I think Jared Cook will be used a good deal more in the short passing game as a second option to Alvin this week as it looks like even crossing routes are becoming too difficult for Drew. Even without Davante Adams though it appears that Marques Valdez-Scantling has improved a good deal over last year and will at least warrant a look as a contrarian captain.

Stoweby’s Showdown for 9.27 Packers at Saints Flex Plays: (All captains are viable flex’s)

To talk flex plays I need to talk script. I do expect this to stay very close and that is due to the lack of out number one receivers. Rodgers can still get a few passes off to a guy like Allen Lazard and even a Jace Sternberger or Robert Tonyan in order to save some salary which we need to pay up for our studs. I am however planting my flag today on Drew Brees. if I were to make ten lineups tonight I would have Drew in a max of two. His upside looks severely limited based on his price and I really think that money is better spent elsewhere. Mainly Kamara and Murray. Everyone is ready to say Green Bay’s run defense is finally decent. Um no it isn’t, they are still vulnerable it just so happens the the games were never in a positive script where the Vikings and Lions could continue to run it. Over the first two weeks they’ve given up 223 yards on 43 carries and 3 touchdowns. Sean Payton is smart enough to know that and will run the tandem as well as a few trick plays for…….Taysom Hill (I’m rolling my eyes) and end arounds for Emmanuel Sanders. I see this being a very ground heavy approach today and we may go well under the total of 52 so kickers and defenses are firmly in play today.

Saints: Emmanuel Sanders, Taysom Hill, Saints D, Will Lutz

Packers: Allen Lazard, Jace Sternberger, Robert Tonyan, Packers D, Mason Crosby

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Stoweby’s Showdown For 9.27 Packers at Saints. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

0 comments
0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
NFL

Stoweby’s Showdown For 9.20 Patriots at Seahawks

David Stowe
written by David Stowe

Welcome to week 2 ladies and gentlemen! I’m hoping you all are reading this following two weeks of main slate cashes and you are all ready to top it off with some showdown fun. I’d like to welcome all of our new subscribers to the Win Daily family. You’ve come to the right place we have some of the absolute best projection models, articles, and discord chat in the industry. Now let’s finish this night strong with Stoweby’s Showdown For 9.20 Patriots at Seahawks. This is sure to be a fun one.

As we all know we need to get a little bit weird in order to take down a big showdown by yourself, you have to take stands on guys that you normally would not in a normal slate and take sub-optimal approaches. If your goal is to min cash go ahead and play the chalk and hop into the 50/50’s and double-ups. That’s not what this is. Historically speaking the type of showdown lineups that solo take-down a contest would make you shake your head. Fading studs, leaving tons of salary on the table, and negative correlations are a common site on these one game contests.

In week one I walked through a couple of scenarios and talked through the mindset that you had to have, focusing more on script and scheme and how you selected your players to fit the “story” that you are telling with your lineup and we had some fun doing it. I’m going to take a slightly different tact this week. We’ll still talk through some scenarios and plays but we’ll forgo the photos and I’ll have it listed in a little more of a formal way at the end than I had in week one.

Stoweby’s Showdown For 9.20 Patriots at Seahawks Vegas Script.

The first thing that sticks out to me. I can’t remember the last time I saw a sub 45 point total in a Patriots game, much less a Patriots game against another potent offense like the Seahawks but it is 2020 so we’ll roll with it. Seattle is favored by 4 so the Vegas scenario says that it will be competitive but New England will likely be playing from behind so how does that looks with a showdown lineup? Well for starters, as much as we want to project last years stats on this years team, they are nothing alike. Aside from Bill Belichick we have nothing to compare to, which means we have nothing. What we have is an absence of seven defensive players from the 2019 season including Patrick Chung, Dont’a Hightower, and Kyle Van Noy. As much as we want to say they are fine, last week was at home, against Miami, with an almost 38 year old Ryan Fitzpatrick, down his number one receiver. This contest will not be that, and my expectation is that Cam will be spending a lot more time in passing situations. I think that most builds will be pretty close with guessing the correct RB and WR on the Patriots side being the key to a top finish.

Stoweby’s Showdown For 9.20 Patriots at Seahawks Flex and Captains:

Patriots:

I was a little worried about how Cam Newton would look in New England but as of now he looks fully healthy from both the shoulder and foot injury that ruined his last couple of seasons so clearly he is in play and he’ll be the big chalk in my opinion just due to his physical running style but as I said earlier I see a lot more throwing from him tomorrow which aside from one fantastic season it really hasn’t been his strong suit so I prefer him in the flex based on that but if you are all in go for it, just know it will be crowded with him at captain. Julian Edelman and N’keal Harry are both going into tomorrow with the Q tag but it’s the Patriots so I think you’re fine with both but my preference is Harry just due to to Cam’s history of favoring bigger receivers over his career, Edelman and Harry had 7 and 6 targets respectively leading all others in targets albeit on a run heavy, read option game plan . I think you guys can see where I’m going in terms of my lean for RB. As much as one can predict with the Pats I think we see a James White game and I think we’ll see it early, Belichick knows there is a gap in offensive firepower and he might try to get up quick in an attempt to control the tempo and using White is his best option from a passing perspective. But it is the Pats, I am as much in the loop as you are. One very under the radar guy who is high risk but can set you apart from the crowd is Damiere Byrd. He didn’t get targeted once but he out snapped both Harry and Edelman and if they need to push the ball downfield he’ll need to be involved and he’s dirt cheap for salary savings.

Flex Plays: Julian Edelman, N’keal Harry, James White, Damiere Byrd, Cam Newton

Captains (Chalk): Cam Newton, Julian Edelman (Low Owned): N’keal Harry, James White

Seahawks:

This one is much easier in my opinion. While Bill Belechick’s specific schemes always vary his goal is the same. Taking the top one or two options, I think for Bill that means DK Metcalf and Russell Wilson‘s running ability. While I think you can tool around with any of the offensive weapons the three I’ll have the most of is Tyler Lockett, Chris Carson, and Russell Wilson. Wilson doesn’t need to run, it’s just an added benefit so he’s firmly in the bulk of my lineups. Additionally, David Moore Hauled in 3 of 3 targets so he is worth a look as a value option so long as Dorsett is not ready to come back from a foot injury and Greg Olsen is still as consistent as ever no matter who is throwing him the ball. It is only a matter of health for him, not skill.

Flex: DK Metcalf, Russell Wilson, Tyler Lockett, Chris Carson, DK Metcalf, David Moore, Greg Olsen (if Phillip Dorsett sits)

Captain (Chalk): Russell Wilson, DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett (Low Owned): Greg Olsen, Chris Carson

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Stoweby’s Showdown For 9.20 Patriots at Seahawks. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

0 comments
0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
NFL

Stoweby’s Showdown For 9.14 Steelers at Giants

David Stowe
written by David Stowe

So nice we’re doing it twice. My original plans were to cover DraftKings featured Showdown only with the Titans at Broncos but you guys have spoken and I will gladly sit down and talk Steelers/Giants. I really do not know why this was not chosen as the featured contest for DK but that is a different conversation all together. Without further delay here is Stoweby’s Showdown For 9.14 Steelers at Giants

As we all know we need to get a little bit weird in order to take down a big showdown by yourself, you have to take stands on guys that you normally would not in a normal slate and take sub-optimal approaches. If your goal is to min cash go ahead and play the chalk and hop into the 50/50’s and double-ups. That’s not what this is. Historically speaking the type of showdown lineups that solo take-down a contest would make you shake your head. Fading studs, leaving too much salary on the table, and negative correlations are a common site on these one game contests.

Stoweby’s Showdown For 9.14 Steelers at Giants:

The first thing that we are looking at is our core for our builds that we will want to have in your lineup if playing one lineup and the bulk of your builds for MME. With a projected total of 45 and the Steelers favored by 5.5 the path that we can project as the most likely is Pittsburgh leaning a bit more on their run game and the Giants attacking through the air to catch up. That immediately puts guys like James Connor, Daniel Jones, Evan Engram, and what I suspect will be the toughest pick, one of the Giants receivers into your core. You need to take a stand one way or the other and live with your choice unless you plan on MME. My personal choice is to assume a limited workload or even a no start for Golden Tate and run out Darius Slayton. I think that of the three Giants receivers his ownership will be the lowest and his upside has been displayed in two contests last year where he exceeded 35 DK points against the Jets and Eagles. This is a difficult proposition against the 3-4 Steelers D with Joe Haden and Steven Nelson but with a back like Saquon Barkley they can attack this defense with what is called a four man flood, stick concept which is a concept where you create a lot of traffic on one side (usually four pass catchers and a back in the flat) which creates large openings in the deep post on zone concepts which is where Slayton’s bread and butter is. Speaking of Barkley, we all know what he is so I don’t feel that I need to say much on him. If the Steelers run more man concept today Barkley will be a huge beneficiary receiving out of the backfield using the offensive concept I mentioned above so look for it early. Also you can not afford all of the studs so in this scenario so Ben Rothesberger and his terrible splits and Juju Smith-Schuster get left out for me. You can play that scenario but the build will be vastly different. That gives me my five and as I always state, per DraftKings guidelines I can go no further but that leaves you $4,800 for guys like James Washington, Benny Snell, or Graham Gano, or you can toy around with a different Giants receiver and see where that leads you.

Captains Spot: Preferred Chalk and Low Owned Plays.

Chalk Captains: Saquon Barkley, Daniel Jones, James Conner

Low Owned GPP Captain Pivots: Evan Engram, (any Giants Receiver but Darius Slayton is my play), James Washington, Diontae Johnson

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Stoweby’s Showdown For 9.14 Steelers at Giants. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

0 comments
0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
NFL

Stoweby’s Showdown For 9.14 Titans at Broncos

David Stowe
written by David Stowe

No rest for the weary, as I sit watching our Sunday night showdown contest between the Cowboys and Rams and considering which direction we should go with our Monday Night Football contest between the Tennessee Titans and Denver Broncos. It’s going to be a stark contrast from tonight’s contest with two of the slowest paced teams from 2019 and two teams that love to run the football. The build structure is going to looks quite differently where we can even justify the use of kickers and defenses in certain situations. So, if you can get a little crazy and want to have some fun with a showdown slate come check out Stoweby’s Showdown For 9.14 Titans at Broncos.

As we all know we need to get a little bit weird in order to take down a big showdown by yourself, you have to take stands on guys that you normally would not in a normal slate and take sub-optimal approaches. If your goal is to min cash go ahead and play the chalk and hop into the 50/50’s and double-ups. That’s not what this is. Historically speaking the type of showdown lineups that solo take-down a contest would make you shake your head. Fading studs, leaving too much salary on the table, and negative correlations are a common site on these one game contests.

Stoweby’s Showdown For 9.14 Titans at Broncos Core:

The first thing that we are looking at is our core for our builds that we will want to have in your lineup if playing one lineup and the bulk of your builds for MME. I won’t make the same mistake as tonight, Derrick Henry ($17,400/$11,600) is the first name you should but in your builds. It’s his show and we all know it. It’s up to you on whether or not to have him as your flex or captain but know that he will be the highest owned captain without question tomorrow and it will be extremely hard to take the contest without 100+ other people. Next is either Melvin Gordon ($12,000/$8,000) or Phillip Lindsey ($11,400/$7,600), my first instinct is go Gordon but every time the Broncos try to replace him he keeps forcing them to keep him in the backfield. So pick your poison there. Next for me is Jonnu Smith ($8,700/$5,800), I really thing he is mispriced. Once Tannehill took over he became a staple in the offensive game plan seeing between 4-7 targets a game and usually hauling them all in further down the field finishing second in yards per target of fourth in catch rate and I expect his growth to continue. So lets see where that puts us.

Now if you believe this game stays on the ground and Lock has a sophmore slump and this stays a slower running game you can throw in the Titans D ($7,500/$5,000) for another core piece. I don’t really recommend the Broncos D, not because of talent, but because the Titans leverage the crap out of low risk situation with ball control and play action. I do not see much in terms of turnovers or sacks from them. I’m going to pretend we’re going the other way and Drew Lock ($14,400/$9,600) has some success in the air. I do not like his price so I will use him in flex and pair him with Jerry Jeudy ($10,800/$7,200) in the captain spot which leaves us with $4200. In that range we can take advantage of the thin air with Kicker Stephen Gostkowski, Daesean Hamilton who flashed in his final two games last season, or Adam Humphries who likely will not give you 20 PPR points but if he gives you 10 points at $2,200 you’re in good shape if the rest of your lineup hits.

Captains Spot: Preferred Chalk and Low Owned Plays.

Chalk Captains: Derrick Henry, Melvin Gordon, Ryan Tannehill

Low Owned GPP Captains: Jonnu Smith, Courtland Sutton (IF ACTIVE), Daesean Hamilton (IF SUTTON INACTIVE), Titans Defense (If playing the running script)

I think people will be scared off putting Sutton in the captain spot if he’s active and I love that with his upside potential in a match-up where low owned upside will be hard to find.

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Stoweby’s Showdown For 9.14 Titans at Broncos. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

0 comments
0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
NFL

NFL DFS GPP: Stix Picks for Week 1

StixPicks
written by StixPicks

To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive.” NFL DFS GPP season is here and it’s time to rock and roll. For those who haven’t read it yet, please check out the Week 1 Cash Game Checkdown for your bankroll sustaining, cash game build advice.

In addition, I would strongly advise giving my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason before diving into the 2020 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter.

For those looking to get different and make a splash in some GPPs, the time is now. We’ll usually be taking some heavy stances on lower-ownership players, but at times, there is certainly good “chalk” to eat. Let’s get into it.

Please note, everyone on our cheatsheet and the Cash Game Checkdown are also in play for GPPs. This is more to uncover some players people are not talking about… and they should be.

General GPP Note:
Everyone and their brother is going to be using DeSean Jackson/Marvin Jones/Boston Scott/Davante Adams. I will rarely have a lineup with more than one of those players this week. Do not stack up that chalk and expect to be different unless you mix in some incredibly low-owned upside elsewhere.

Quarterbacks

  1. Aaron Rodgers ($6,800 DK / $8,100 FD) – Rodgers is going completely under the radar this weekend against arguably one of the worst secondaries in the NFL (on paper). The AETY Model has him projected for ~270 passing yards and this matchup grades as good as it did for Rodgers since Week 7 of last year against Oakland… Go look at that box score.

    Rodgers is likely to be in my main lineup and we can obviously pair him up with Davante Adams (maybe even Lazard and/or Aaron Jones). Use Dalvin Cook on the back-end for a little game stack.
    AETY Projection: 18.35 Points
  2. Mitch Trubisky ($5,400 DK / $6,900 FD) – Even Vegas player props have Trubisky projected for over 250 passing yards, lol. Trubisky has great history against Detroit and their man-coverage. I’ve been talking about him as a value all week and will have plenty of exposure.

    Stack Options: Miller/Robinson, Miller/Graham, Robinson/Graham, Robinson/Cohen, Miller/Cohen.
    AETY Projection: 17.44 Points
  3. Russell Wilson ($7,000 DK / $8,400 FD) – This is the nuts matchup for Russell Wilson. I don’t really care what ownership is, I’ll have a lot of him.

    Stack Options: Metcalf/Lockett, Lockett/Carson, Metcalf/Carson
    AETY Projection: 21.86 Points

    Honorable Mention: Derek Carr, Cam Newton, Lamar Jackson (obviously), Josh Allen

NFL DFS GPP: Running Backs

  1. Dalvin Cook ($7,900 DK / $8,700 FD) – See the Cash Game Checkdown for write-up. I love him this weekend.
    AETY Projection: 20.19 DK / 18.46 FD
  2. Aaron Jones ($6,900 DK / $7,800 DK) – Aaron Jones loves playing the Minnesota Vikings, averaging over 133 all-purpose yards in their last three meetings. I love Rodgers. I love Jones. I love this low owned combination paired up with a chalky (rightfully so), Davante Adams.
    AETY Projection: 16.52 DK / 14.92 FD
  3. Todd Gurley ($6,100 DK / $7,100 FD) – He’s just too cheap and a great opportunity to get exposure to a high-total game where everyone is playing these wide receivers. There is no threat behind Gurley regarding snap count, so Atlanta is likely to ride him. Gurley will get it done on Sunday at sub-10% ownership.

    Chris Carson on the other side is also a very nice, low-owned option for contrarian exposure to this shoot-out.
    AETY Projection: 17.60 DK / 15.74 FD
  4. Nick Chubb ($6,500 DK / $7,500 FD) – You have all heard me praise this Stefanski outside-zone running scheme, so it should be no surprise that I’m into Chubb this week. No one is going to play him despite having an improved offensive line and dominating on a weekly basis in 2019. He’s going to get a lot of touches and we just need to hope talent and scheme outweigh a great defense.
    AETY Projection: 14.43 DK / 13.53 FD
  5. Raheem Mostert ($5,800 DK / $6,200 FD) – I’m not a believer in Arizona’s defense just yet and always want some exposure for the late-hammer in the afternoon games. I trust Shanahan’s outside-zone run scheme to take over and run away with this game. If Tevin Coleman has to miss this game due to the air quality, Mostert could offer your lineups some strong, late-upside.
    AETY Projection: 13.50 DK / 12.83 FD
  6. Matt Breida ($5,000 DK / $5,200 FD) – I’ll keep this one simple. Breida is going to be sub-3% owned in a gamescript where the Dolphins will be chasing points. Jordan Howard won’t be involved in the “playing catch-up” scheme. Breida is going to hit 2-3x value in our NFL DFS GPP lineups, with over 60 all-purpose yards. If he can get in the box, he can be a difference maker in GPPs and an excellent pivot off of Boston Scott/Antonio Gibson chalk.
    AETY Projection: 11.26 DK / 9.69 FD

    Honorable Mention: Joe Mixon, Mark Ingram, Tarik Cohen

    *Keep in mind, you do-not need to use two pass catchers with your Quarterbacks. Just wanted to give you some of the options I’ll be using.

Wide Receivers

  1. Keenan Allen ($6,400 DK / $7,000 FD) – If Mike Williams misses this game, Keenan Allen is going to be busy in what should be one of the higher-paced games on the slate.
    AETY Projection: 15.70 DK / 12.46 FD
  2. DJ Moore ($6,600 DK / $7,100 FD) – Everyone in the industry absolutely loved DJ Moore ALL OFF-SEASON long, but no one wants to play him in a plus-matchup against a rookie cornerback and Trayvon Mullen? I don’t get it, lol. The industry is full of frauds if DJ Moore is truly under 10% owned. Load him up.
    AETY Projection: 15.11 DK / 12.09 FD
  3. DJ Chark ($6,300 DK / $6,600 FD) – The Jaguars are going to be playing catch-up from the get-go on Sunday. Chark is likely to see a 30% market share of the passes from Gardnew Minshew and that’s all I need to know. This team is going to be awful all year long, but no one in the Colts’ secondary can contain Chark.
    AETY Projection: 14.85 DK / 12.12 FD
  4. Anthony Miller ($5,000 DK / $5,400 FD) – I won’t eat DeSean Jackson chalk so Anthony Miller is likely to be my pivot. This dude can run crisp routes and tear apart man-coverage that Detroit is likely to throw at him. We probably will have a lot of Marvin Jones for value and one of Miller/Robinson are perfect candidates to pair on the other side.
    AETY Projection: 11.34 DK / 9.11 FD

    Honorable Mention: Tyler Boyd, Preston Williams, Emmanuel Sanders, Kendrick Bourne, Curtis Samuel, Allen Lazard, Henry Ruggs, Jalen Reagor, Trent Taylor

NFL DFS GPP: Tight Ends

  1. Mark Andrews ($6,000 DK / $7,400 FD) – He may not be under the radar by any means, but no one has the ceiling Andrews does against Cleveland this Sunday. He’s always in play and isn’t priced up where he should be.
    AETY Projection: 14.32 DK / 11.94 FD
  2. TJ Hockenson ($4,200 DK / $5,300 FD) – No Golladay = A lot of target share to open up on Sunday. As everyone flocks to Marvin Jones (don’t get me wrong, I’ll have some too), I prefer moving down to Hockenson as I’m expecting a big opportunity in his favor. The AETY Model loves his chances of getting in the end-zone and he makes for an excellent NFL DFS GPP target.
    AETY Projection: 11.53 / 9.42
  3. Mike Gesicki ($4,500 DK / $5,400 FD) – Miami will be chasing points. New England’s linebackers cannot keep up with Gesicki. He’s probably my favorite GPP tight-end and someone I’ll always have on the other side of my Cam Newton stacks.
    AETY Projection: 8.65 DK / 6.97 FD

    Honorable Mention: Ian Thomas, Hunter Henry, Dallas Goeddert, Jimmy Graham

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.

0 comments
0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
Newer Posts
Older Posts

Subscribe to our newsletter

The best bets and resources to make you more profitable

    Built with ConvertKit

    Our Company

    At WIN DAILY®, our motto is to “change your game and change your life.” We want to help you win that bet, parlay, and big DFS tournament and have some fun while you do. Our goal is to help you turn your love of sports into a profit center while playing responsibly and enjoying your time with a like-minded community.

    LISTEN TO WIN DAILY®RADIO
    Saturdays: 6-8PM EST

    WIN DAILY® RADIO
    Friday’s 8-10pm Est
    Sunday’s 7-9pm EST

    GET STARTED TODAY

    ©2024 WIN DAILY®. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

    This site is 100% for entertainment purposes only and does not involve real money betting. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800 GAMBLER. This service is intended for adult users only.
    Close
    -
    00:00
    00:00

    Queue

    Update Required Flash plugin
    -
    00:00
    00:00