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DraftKings GPP

Stoweby’s Showdown For 10.5 Falcons at Packers

David Stowe 5 years ago

written by David Stowe

Welcome to week 4 ladies and gentlemen! Hopefully we are all taking a look at this shortly after counting all of our winnings from the main slate. We have another fantastic fantasy matchup this evening. We have a ton of injuries so there should be points to be had for minimal cost and plenty of solid opportunities to take advantage of. Let’s not waste anymore time get into Stoweby’s Showdown For 10.4 Falcons at Packers.

Week 4 NFL DFS Introduction to Single-Game Showdowns

DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.

My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.

If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 4 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points) Stoweby’s Showdown Falcons at Packers:

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

*Game Note: I’m going under the assumption that Adams will remain out.

With the number of injuries for both teams something has to give, I’m not really sure how they’ll hit the 56.5 total but that’s why we play. I have the expectation that Green Bay is going very run heavy due to the injuries and they will likely be successful in doing so. Aaron Jones and even Jamal Williams are going to be prioritized in my lineups over most the Packers pass catchers sans MVS. Atlanta is a little trickier, they are also injured but to this point everyone is still playing and they are 9 point dogs so the most logical route is leaning on two pass catchers and Matt Ryan.

Chalk: Aaron Jones $16,200

Pivot: Aaron Rodgers $17,100

Contrarian #1: Matt Ryan $15,000

Contrarian #2: Marquez Valdez-Scantling $10,500

Contrarian #3: Todd Gurley $12,300

***Extra Captain Play: Calvin Ridley or Julio Jones (If you think the Vegas total is correct and you expect the Falcons to play from behind they both need to be considered even injured)

Stoweby’s Showdown for 10.5 Falcons at Packers Flex Plays: (All captains are viable flex’s)

To talk flex plays I need to talk script. The expectation according to the Vegas total of 56.5 and the -7 to the Packers the Falcons will be throwing a ton to catch up and the Packers will likely spend a large part of the second half grinding clock out. It makes a lot of sense that they run quite a bit either way given the number of receivers injuries for the Packers. The same could reasonably be said for the Falcons but it’s clear that they do not have the same luxury that the Packers half. So my script for the majority of my lineups will be pass catchers for the Falcons, a minimum of one Green Bay running back in every lineup (sometimes two), and only one Green Bay pass catcher maximum as I think they won’t be used a ton late.

Falcons: Russell Gage, Hayden Hurst, Brian Hill

Packers: Jamal Williams, Robert Tonyan, Jace Sternberger, Malik Taylor

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Stoweby’s Showdown For 10.5 Falcons at Packers. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

5 years ago 0 comments

NFL

Stoweby’s Showdown For 9.27 Packers at Saints

David Stowe 5 years ago

written by David Stowe

Welcome to week 3 ladies and gentlemen! We have ourselves what would have been an amazing contest but two key injuries knocked us down a notch. It’s still an interesting game with an interesting narrative and a pretty concentrated played pool. I’m let’s not waste anymore time and get into Stoweby’s Showdown for 9.27 Packers at Saints!

Week 3 NFL DFS Introduction to Single-Game Showdowns

Let’s get to the game!

Week 3 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points) Stoweby’s Showdown Packers at Saints:

Chalk: Alvin Kamara $17,700 Aaron Jones $17,100

Pivot: Aaron Rodgers $16,500

Contrarian #1: Latavius Murray $4,200

Contrarian #2: Marquez Valdez-Scantling $10,200

Contrarian #3: Jared Cook $11,400

First thing and I think it’s not a surprise that Alvin Kamara and Aaron Jones are going to be 1a and 1b in terms of ownership both overall and in the captain spot. Aaron Rodgers is without his top overall weapon as is Drew Brees which limits both teams due to lack of depth at the position. You will be hard pressed to find many lineups tonight who don’t fit both guys into it even at those high prices. Vegas currently has Green Bay as 3.5 point dogs which with the way they have looked thus far feels off. I know it’s the Superdome, but it’s an empty Superdome. At first glance I felt like this should be a pick-um and I’m standing by that. If you noticed above there is one top player that I don’t have as a potential captain and he just so happens to be the 41 year old QB who only attempted one throw of more than 20 yards last week in a game where they were trailing for the majority of the second half. It’s clear, Brees needs Thomas to be effective and in order to win they will need a heavy dose of Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray to accomplish that tonight. I think Jared Cook will be used a good deal more in the short passing game as a second option to Alvin this week as it looks like even crossing routes are becoming too difficult for Drew. Even without Davante Adams though it appears that Marques Valdez-Scantling has improved a good deal over last year and will at least warrant a look as a contrarian captain.

Stoweby’s Showdown for 9.27 Packers at Saints Flex Plays: (All captains are viable flex’s)

To talk flex plays I need to talk script. I do expect this to stay very close and that is due to the lack of out number one receivers. Rodgers can still get a few passes off to a guy like Allen Lazard and even a Jace Sternberger or Robert Tonyan in order to save some salary which we need to pay up for our studs. I am however planting my flag today on Drew Brees. if I were to make ten lineups tonight I would have Drew in a max of two. His upside looks severely limited based on his price and I really think that money is better spent elsewhere. Mainly Kamara and Murray. Everyone is ready to say Green Bay’s run defense is finally decent. Um no it isn’t, they are still vulnerable it just so happens the the games were never in a positive script where the Vikings and Lions could continue to run it. Over the first two weeks they’ve given up 223 yards on 43 carries and 3 touchdowns. Sean Payton is smart enough to know that and will run the tandem as well as a few trick plays for…….Taysom Hill (I’m rolling my eyes) and end arounds for Emmanuel Sanders. I see this being a very ground heavy approach today and we may go well under the total of 52 so kickers and defenses are firmly in play today.

Saints: Emmanuel Sanders, Taysom Hill, Saints D, Will Lutz

Packers: Allen Lazard, Jace Sternberger, Robert Tonyan, Packers D, Mason Crosby

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Stoweby’s Showdown For 9.27 Packers at Saints. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

5 years ago 0 comments

NFL

Stoweby’s Showdown For 9.20 Patriots at Seahawks

David Stowe 5 years ago

written by David Stowe

Welcome to week 2 ladies and gentlemen! I’m hoping you all are reading this following two weeks of main slate cashes and you are all ready to top it off with some showdown fun. I’d like to welcome all of our new subscribers to the Win Daily family. You’ve come to the right place we have some of the absolute best projection models, articles, and discord chat in the industry. Now let’s finish this night strong with Stoweby’s Showdown For 9.20 Patriots at Seahawks. This is sure to be a fun one.

As we all know we need to get a little bit weird in order to take down a big showdown by yourself, you have to take stands on guys that you normally would not in a normal slate and take sub-optimal approaches. If your goal is to min cash go ahead and play the chalk and hop into the 50/50’s and double-ups. That’s not what this is. Historically speaking the type of showdown lineups that solo take-down a contest would make you shake your head. Fading studs, leaving tons of salary on the table, and negative correlations are a common site on these one game contests.

In week one I walked through a couple of scenarios and talked through the mindset that you had to have, focusing more on script and scheme and how you selected your players to fit the “story” that you are telling with your lineup and we had some fun doing it. I’m going to take a slightly different tact this week. We’ll still talk through some scenarios and plays but we’ll forgo the photos and I’ll have it listed in a little more of a formal way at the end than I had in week one.

Stoweby’s Showdown For 9.20 Patriots at Seahawks Vegas Script.

The first thing that sticks out to me. I can’t remember the last time I saw a sub 45 point total in a Patriots game, much less a Patriots game against another potent offense like the Seahawks but it is 2020 so we’ll roll with it. Seattle is favored by 4 so the Vegas scenario says that it will be competitive but New England will likely be playing from behind so how does that looks with a showdown lineup? Well for starters, as much as we want to project last years stats on this years team, they are nothing alike. Aside from Bill Belichick we have nothing to compare to, which means we have nothing. What we have is an absence of seven defensive players from the 2019 season including Patrick Chung, Dont’a Hightower, and Kyle Van Noy. As much as we want to say they are fine, last week was at home, against Miami, with an almost 38 year old Ryan Fitzpatrick, down his number one receiver. This contest will not be that, and my expectation is that Cam will be spending a lot more time in passing situations. I think that most builds will be pretty close with guessing the correct RB and WR on the Patriots side being the key to a top finish.

Stoweby’s Showdown For 9.20 Patriots at Seahawks Flex and Captains:

Patriots:

I was a little worried about how Cam Newton would look in New England but as of now he looks fully healthy from both the shoulder and foot injury that ruined his last couple of seasons so clearly he is in play and he’ll be the big chalk in my opinion just due to his physical running style but as I said earlier I see a lot more throwing from him tomorrow which aside from one fantastic season it really hasn’t been his strong suit so I prefer him in the flex based on that but if you are all in go for it, just know it will be crowded with him at captain. Julian Edelman and N’keal Harry are both going into tomorrow with the Q tag but it’s the Patriots so I think you’re fine with both but my preference is Harry just due to to Cam’s history of favoring bigger receivers over his career, Edelman and Harry had 7 and 6 targets respectively leading all others in targets albeit on a run heavy, read option game plan . I think you guys can see where I’m going in terms of my lean for RB. As much as one can predict with the Pats I think we see a James White game and I think we’ll see it early, Belichick knows there is a gap in offensive firepower and he might try to get up quick in an attempt to control the tempo and using White is his best option from a passing perspective. But it is the Pats, I am as much in the loop as you are. One very under the radar guy who is high risk but can set you apart from the crowd is Damiere Byrd. He didn’t get targeted once but he out snapped both Harry and Edelman and if they need to push the ball downfield he’ll need to be involved and he’s dirt cheap for salary savings.

Flex Plays: Julian Edelman, N’keal Harry, James White, Damiere Byrd, Cam Newton

Captains (Chalk): Cam Newton, Julian Edelman (Low Owned): N’keal Harry, James White

Seahawks:

This one is much easier in my opinion. While Bill Belechick’s specific schemes always vary his goal is the same. Taking the top one or two options, I think for Bill that means DK Metcalf and Russell Wilson‘s running ability. While I think you can tool around with any of the offensive weapons the three I’ll have the most of is Tyler Lockett, Chris Carson, and Russell Wilson. Wilson doesn’t need to run, it’s just an added benefit so he’s firmly in the bulk of my lineups. Additionally, David Moore Hauled in 3 of 3 targets so he is worth a look as a value option so long as Dorsett is not ready to come back from a foot injury and Greg Olsen is still as consistent as ever no matter who is throwing him the ball. It is only a matter of health for him, not skill.

Flex: DK Metcalf, Russell Wilson, Tyler Lockett, Chris Carson, DK Metcalf, David Moore, Greg Olsen (if Phillip Dorsett sits)

Captain (Chalk): Russell Wilson, DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett (Low Owned): Greg Olsen, Chris Carson

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Stoweby’s Showdown For 9.20 Patriots at Seahawks. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

5 years ago 0 comments

NFL

Stoweby’s Showdown For 9.14 Steelers at Giants

David Stowe 5 years ago

written by David Stowe

So nice we’re doing it twice. My original plans were to cover DraftKings featured Showdown only with the Titans at Broncos but you guys have spoken and I will gladly sit down and talk Steelers/Giants. I really do not know why this was not chosen as the featured contest for DK but that is a different conversation all together. Without further delay here is Stoweby’s Showdown For 9.14 Steelers at Giants

As we all know we need to get a little bit weird in order to take down a big showdown by yourself, you have to take stands on guys that you normally would not in a normal slate and take sub-optimal approaches. If your goal is to min cash go ahead and play the chalk and hop into the 50/50’s and double-ups. That’s not what this is. Historically speaking the type of showdown lineups that solo take-down a contest would make you shake your head. Fading studs, leaving too much salary on the table, and negative correlations are a common site on these one game contests.

Stoweby’s Showdown For 9.14 Steelers at Giants:

The first thing that we are looking at is our core for our builds that we will want to have in your lineup if playing one lineup and the bulk of your builds for MME. With a projected total of 45 and the Steelers favored by 5.5 the path that we can project as the most likely is Pittsburgh leaning a bit more on their run game and the Giants attacking through the air to catch up. That immediately puts guys like James Connor, Daniel Jones, Evan Engram, and what I suspect will be the toughest pick, one of the Giants receivers into your core. You need to take a stand one way or the other and live with your choice unless you plan on MME. My personal choice is to assume a limited workload or even a no start for Golden Tate and run out Darius Slayton. I think that of the three Giants receivers his ownership will be the lowest and his upside has been displayed in two contests last year where he exceeded 35 DK points against the Jets and Eagles. This is a difficult proposition against the 3-4 Steelers D with Joe Haden and Steven Nelson but with a back like Saquon Barkley they can attack this defense with what is called a four man flood, stick concept which is a concept where you create a lot of traffic on one side (usually four pass catchers and a back in the flat) which creates large openings in the deep post on zone concepts which is where Slayton’s bread and butter is. Speaking of Barkley, we all know what he is so I don’t feel that I need to say much on him. If the Steelers run more man concept today Barkley will be a huge beneficiary receiving out of the backfield using the offensive concept I mentioned above so look for it early. Also you can not afford all of the studs so in this scenario so Ben Rothesberger and his terrible splits and Juju Smith-Schuster get left out for me. You can play that scenario but the build will be vastly different. That gives me my five and as I always state, per DraftKings guidelines I can go no further but that leaves you $4,800 for guys like James Washington, Benny Snell, or Graham Gano, or you can toy around with a different Giants receiver and see where that leads you.

Captains Spot: Preferred Chalk and Low Owned Plays.

Chalk Captains: Saquon Barkley, Daniel Jones, James Conner

Low Owned GPP Captain Pivots: Evan Engram, (any Giants Receiver but Darius Slayton is my play), James Washington, Diontae Johnson

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Stoweby’s Showdown For 9.14 Steelers at Giants. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

5 years ago 0 comments

NFL

Stoweby’s Showdown For 9.14 Titans at Broncos

David Stowe 5 years ago

written by David Stowe

No rest for the weary, as I sit watching our Sunday night showdown contest between the Cowboys and Rams and considering which direction we should go with our Monday Night Football contest between the Tennessee Titans and Denver Broncos. It’s going to be a stark contrast from tonight’s contest with two of the slowest paced teams from 2019 and two teams that love to run the football. The build structure is going to looks quite differently where we can even justify the use of kickers and defenses in certain situations. So, if you can get a little crazy and want to have some fun with a showdown slate come check out Stoweby’s Showdown For 9.14 Titans at Broncos.

As we all know we need to get a little bit weird in order to take down a big showdown by yourself, you have to take stands on guys that you normally would not in a normal slate and take sub-optimal approaches. If your goal is to min cash go ahead and play the chalk and hop into the 50/50’s and double-ups. That’s not what this is. Historically speaking the type of showdown lineups that solo take-down a contest would make you shake your head. Fading studs, leaving too much salary on the table, and negative correlations are a common site on these one game contests.

Stoweby’s Showdown For 9.14 Titans at Broncos Core:

The first thing that we are looking at is our core for our builds that we will want to have in your lineup if playing one lineup and the bulk of your builds for MME. I won’t make the same mistake as tonight, Derrick Henry ($17,400/$11,600) is the first name you should but in your builds. It’s his show and we all know it. It’s up to you on whether or not to have him as your flex or captain but know that he will be the highest owned captain without question tomorrow and it will be extremely hard to take the contest without 100+ other people. Next is either Melvin Gordon ($12,000/$8,000) or Phillip Lindsey ($11,400/$7,600), my first instinct is go Gordon but every time the Broncos try to replace him he keeps forcing them to keep him in the backfield. So pick your poison there. Next for me is Jonnu Smith ($8,700/$5,800), I really thing he is mispriced. Once Tannehill took over he became a staple in the offensive game plan seeing between 4-7 targets a game and usually hauling them all in further down the field finishing second in yards per target of fourth in catch rate and I expect his growth to continue. So lets see where that puts us.

Now if you believe this game stays on the ground and Lock has a sophmore slump and this stays a slower running game you can throw in the Titans D ($7,500/$5,000) for another core piece. I don’t really recommend the Broncos D, not because of talent, but because the Titans leverage the crap out of low risk situation with ball control and play action. I do not see much in terms of turnovers or sacks from them. I’m going to pretend we’re going the other way and Drew Lock ($14,400/$9,600) has some success in the air. I do not like his price so I will use him in flex and pair him with Jerry Jeudy ($10,800/$7,200) in the captain spot which leaves us with $4200. In that range we can take advantage of the thin air with Kicker Stephen Gostkowski, Daesean Hamilton who flashed in his final two games last season, or Adam Humphries who likely will not give you 20 PPR points but if he gives you 10 points at $2,200 you’re in good shape if the rest of your lineup hits.

Captains Spot: Preferred Chalk and Low Owned Plays.

Chalk Captains: Derrick Henry, Melvin Gordon, Ryan Tannehill

Low Owned GPP Captains: Jonnu Smith, Courtland Sutton (IF ACTIVE), Daesean Hamilton (IF SUTTON INACTIVE), Titans Defense (If playing the running script)

I think people will be scared off putting Sutton in the captain spot if he’s active and I love that with his upside potential in a match-up where low owned upside will be hard to find.

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Stoweby’s Showdown For 9.14 Titans at Broncos. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

5 years ago 0 comments

NFL

NFL DFS GPP: Stix Picks for Week 1

StixPicks 5 years ago

written by StixPicks

To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive.” NFL DFS GPP season is here and it’s time to rock and roll. For those who haven’t read it yet, please check out the Week 1 Cash Game Checkdown for your bankroll sustaining, cash game build advice.

In addition, I would strongly advise giving my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason before diving into the 2020 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter.

For those looking to get different and make a splash in some GPPs, the time is now. We’ll usually be taking some heavy stances on lower-ownership players, but at times, there is certainly good “chalk” to eat. Let’s get into it.

Please note, everyone on our cheatsheet and the Cash Game Checkdown are also in play for GPPs. This is more to uncover some players people are not talking about… and they should be.

General GPP Note:
Everyone and their brother is going to be using DeSean Jackson/Marvin Jones/Boston Scott/Davante Adams. I will rarely have a lineup with more than one of those players this week. Do not stack up that chalk and expect to be different unless you mix in some incredibly low-owned upside elsewhere.

Quarterbacks

Aaron Rodgers ($6,800 DK / $8,100 FD) – Rodgers is going completely under the radar this weekend against arguably one of the worst secondaries in the NFL (on paper). The AETY Model has him projected for ~270 passing yards and this matchup grades as good as it did for Rodgers since Week 7 of last year against Oakland… Go look at that box score.

Rodgers is likely to be in my main lineup and we can obviously pair him up with Davante Adams (maybe even Lazard and/or Aaron Jones). Use Dalvin Cook on the back-end for a little game stack.
AETY Projection: 18.35 Points
Mitch Trubisky ($5,400 DK / $6,900 FD) – Even Vegas player props have Trubisky projected for over 250 passing yards, lol. Trubisky has great history against Detroit and their man-coverage. I’ve been talking about him as a value all week and will have plenty of exposure.

Stack Options: Miller/Robinson, Miller/Graham, Robinson/Graham, Robinson/Cohen, Miller/Cohen.
AETY Projection: 17.44 Points
Russell Wilson ($7,000 DK / $8,400 FD) – This is the nuts matchup for Russell Wilson. I don’t really care what ownership is, I’ll have a lot of him.

Stack Options: Metcalf/Lockett, Lockett/Carson, Metcalf/Carson
AETY Projection: 21.86 Points

Honorable Mention: Derek Carr, Cam Newton, Lamar Jackson (obviously), Josh Allen

NFL DFS GPP: Running Backs

Dalvin Cook ($7,900 DK / $8,700 FD) – See the Cash Game Checkdown for write-up. I love him this weekend.
AETY Projection: 20.19 DK / 18.46 FD
Aaron Jones ($6,900 DK / $7,800 DK) – Aaron Jones loves playing the Minnesota Vikings, averaging over 133 all-purpose yards in their last three meetings. I love Rodgers. I love Jones. I love this low owned combination paired up with a chalky (rightfully so), Davante Adams.
AETY Projection: 16.52 DK / 14.92 FD
Todd Gurley ($6,100 DK / $7,100 FD) – He’s just too cheap and a great opportunity to get exposure to a high-total game where everyone is playing these wide receivers. There is no threat behind Gurley regarding snap count, so Atlanta is likely to ride him. Gurley will get it done on Sunday at sub-10% ownership.

Chris Carson on the other side is also a very nice, low-owned option for contrarian exposure to this shoot-out.
AETY Projection: 17.60 DK / 15.74 FD
Nick Chubb ($6,500 DK / $7,500 FD) – You have all heard me praise this Stefanski outside-zone running scheme, so it should be no surprise that I’m into Chubb this week. No one is going to play him despite having an improved offensive line and dominating on a weekly basis in 2019. He’s going to get a lot of touches and we just need to hope talent and scheme outweigh a great defense.
AETY Projection: 14.43 DK / 13.53 FD
Raheem Mostert ($5,800 DK / $6,200 FD) – I’m not a believer in Arizona’s defense just yet and always want some exposure for the late-hammer in the afternoon games. I trust Shanahan’s outside-zone run scheme to take over and run away with this game. If Tevin Coleman has to miss this game due to the air quality, Mostert could offer your lineups some strong, late-upside.
AETY Projection: 13.50 DK / 12.83 FD
Matt Breida ($5,000 DK / $5,200 FD) – I’ll keep this one simple. Breida is going to be sub-3% owned in a gamescript where the Dolphins will be chasing points. Jordan Howard won’t be involved in the “playing catch-up” scheme. Breida is going to hit 2-3x value in our NFL DFS GPP lineups, with over 60 all-purpose yards. If he can get in the box, he can be a difference maker in GPPs and an excellent pivot off of Boston Scott/Antonio Gibson chalk.
AETY Projection: 11.26 DK / 9.69 FD

Honorable Mention: Joe Mixon, Mark Ingram, Tarik Cohen

*Keep in mind, you do-not need to use two pass catchers with your Quarterbacks. Just wanted to give you some of the options I’ll be using.

Wide Receivers

Keenan Allen ($6,400 DK / $7,000 FD) – If Mike Williams misses this game, Keenan Allen is going to be busy in what should be one of the higher-paced games on the slate.
AETY Projection: 15.70 DK / 12.46 FD
DJ Moore ($6,600 DK / $7,100 FD) – Everyone in the industry absolutely loved DJ Moore ALL OFF-SEASON long, but no one wants to play him in a plus-matchup against a rookie cornerback and Trayvon Mullen? I don’t get it, lol. The industry is full of frauds if DJ Moore is truly under 10% owned. Load him up.
AETY Projection: 15.11 DK / 12.09 FD
DJ Chark ($6,300 DK / $6,600 FD) – The Jaguars are going to be playing catch-up from the get-go on Sunday. Chark is likely to see a 30% market share of the passes from Gardnew Minshew and that’s all I need to know. This team is going to be awful all year long, but no one in the Colts’ secondary can contain Chark.
AETY Projection: 14.85 DK / 12.12 FD
Anthony Miller ($5,000 DK / $5,400 FD) – I won’t eat DeSean Jackson chalk so Anthony Miller is likely to be my pivot. This dude can run crisp routes and tear apart man-coverage that Detroit is likely to throw at him. We probably will have a lot of Marvin Jones for value and one of Miller/Robinson are perfect candidates to pair on the other side.
AETY Projection: 11.34 DK / 9.11 FD

Honorable Mention: Tyler Boyd, Preston Williams, Emmanuel Sanders, Kendrick Bourne, Curtis Samuel, Allen Lazard, Henry Ruggs, Jalen Reagor, Trent Taylor

NFL DFS GPP: Tight Ends

Mark Andrews ($6,000 DK / $7,400 FD) – He may not be under the radar by any means, but no one has the ceiling Andrews does against Cleveland this Sunday. He’s always in play and isn’t priced up where he should be.
AETY Projection: 14.32 DK / 11.94 FD
TJ Hockenson ($4,200 DK / $5,300 FD) – No Golladay = A lot of target share to open up on Sunday. As everyone flocks to Marvin Jones (don’t get me wrong, I’ll have some too), I prefer moving down to Hockenson as I’m expecting a big opportunity in his favor. The AETY Model loves his chances of getting in the end-zone and he makes for an excellent NFL DFS GPP target.
AETY Projection: 11.53 / 9.42
Mike Gesicki ($4,500 DK / $5,400 FD) – Miami will be chasing points. New England’s linebackers cannot keep up with Gesicki. He’s probably my favorite GPP tight-end and someone I’ll always have on the other side of my Cam Newton stacks.
AETY Projection: 8.65 DK / 6.97 FD

Honorable Mention: Ian Thomas, Hunter Henry, Dallas Goeddert, Jimmy Graham

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.

5 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR Premium

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series from Richmond 9/12/20

Matt Vecchio 5 years ago

written by Matt Vecchio

Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop for Saturday night’s Cup Series Federated Auto Parts 400 from Richmond Raceway. We have a potentially big fantasy point night tonight with 300 possible dominator points to earn in this race. Last season Martin Truex Jr. swept at Richmond and dominated both races.

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

Denny Hamlin ($11,600)

Starting Position: 7th

Hamlin is once again the highest priced driver on this slate and he may be a little overpriced tonight. I think Hamlin might actually come in at lower ownership then usual because of high price making him ideal for GPP’s tonight. Last season Hamlin finished top 5 in both Richmond races but had only 7.25 dominator points, but I think tonight he picks a lot more than that. Hamlin saw Harvick win and clinch his spot in the next round of the playoffs last week in Darlington and Hamlin could be the next with a win tonight.

Martin Truex Jr. ($10,900)

Starting Position: 14th

If Hamlin is overpriced, then Truex is under priced at $10.9K. Truex will most likely come in as the highest owned driver in this tier, and rightfully so. Truex dominated this track in 2019 winning both races as I mentioned in the open. Not only did Truex win both races, he earned himself an average of 83.5 dominator points in each race. Truex led 295 laps at Richmond last season and had 78 fastest laps.

Kyle Busch ($9,800)

Starting Position: 6th

While Kyle did not win at Richmond in 2019, he racked up fantasy points. Busch came home in the top 10 in both races and picked up a massive amount of dominator points. Obviously Kyle was having a much better season in 2019 than he is in 2020, but he has had success here and he did race in the Xfinity race on Friday night so he knows where his car should be for tonight’s race. Busch led over 300 laps combined at Richmond last season and had 126 fastest laps.

Other Options: Kevin Harvick ($11,300), Brad Keselowski ($10,100)

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Joey Logano ($9,300)

Starting Position: 2nd

Logano is a solid GPP play on Saturday night, albeit a risky play. With him starting on the outside pole, Logano doesn’t offer place differential upside, but he does seem to run really well at Richmond in his career. In his last 12 races at Richmond Logano has ten top 10 finishes, four finishes of 2nd or better (2 wins), and has led at least 25 laps in 6 of the 12 races.

Clint Bowyer ($8,300)

Starting Position: 11th

Bowyer has some good upside this weekend starting in the 11th position. In 2019 at Richmond Bowyer finished 9th and 3rd, and at Phoenix this season (similar track) Bowyer came home 5th. Going further back, Bowyer has 4 straight top 10 finishes at Richmond.

Other Options: Erik Jones ($8,900), Jimmie Johnson ($8,700), Matt DiBenedetto ($7,500)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

There is a lot of good value in this section this week, which is what I was hoping for because I want to load up on the top tier in my lineups this weekend. We have guys like Christopher Bell ($7,200), Bubba Wallace ($7,100), and Ryan Newman ($7,000) in the $7K range who are soild PD upside plays. At under $6K we have drivers like Chris Buescher ($5,900), Corey Lajoie ($5,800), and Daniel Suarez ($5,600). Suarez has never finished lower than 18th at Richmond and owns three top 10 finishes here. Do I think he gets a 4th? No, but a top 20 is not out of the question.

Ryan Newman – $7,000 – P21
Daniel Suarez – $5,600 – P28
Christopher Bell – $7,200 – P26
Corey Lajoie – $5,800 – P34
William Byron – $7,300 – P5
Ty Dillon – $6,300 – P27
Bubba Wallace – $7,100 – P30
Ryan Preece – $6,100 – P24
Chris Buescher – $5,900 – P25
John Hunter Nemechek – $6,500 – P31

Thanks for reading this article on the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series 9/12/20 from Richmond Raceway! Make sure you head to the Win Daily Sports Discord for up to date info and help directly from our pros! Head over to Twitter and give the @WinDailySports account and me (@MVecchio81) a follow for all things Fantasy Sports! You can find more FREE NASCAR content over at WinDailySports.com!

5 years ago 0 comments

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NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series from Daytona Road Course 8/16/20

Matt Vecchio 5 years ago

written by Matt Vecchio

Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop for Sunday evening’s Cup Series race from the Daytona Road Course. This is the final race of the weekend at this course, the first time NASCAR has ever raced here. We have another short race Sunday with only 65 laps for this race.

This is the first race that the majority of these drivers have ever driven in on this course. Jimmie Johnson ($8,100) is one of the those drivers who have run a race here. Johnson has raced at the Rolex 24 hours of Daytona so he does have some knowledge of this track that will definitely help him on Sunday.

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

Ryan Blaney ($11,000)

Starting Position: 24th

Blaney is the most expensive driver on this slate, but he is worthy of this salary this week. Blaney offers us everything we are looking for on Sunday as far place differential upside and has the chance to win. In his last 6 road course races Blaney has a win, three top 5’s, and four top 10’s.

Chase Elliott ($10,300)

Starting Position: 7th

Saying Chase Elliott has been dominating at road courses may be the understatement of the year. In the last 6 road course races the Cup Series has run, Elliott has taken the checkered flag first in half of them. Outside of the wreck at Sonoma last year, Elliott has finished no worse than 6th in any race and has won the last 2 road course races.

Martin Truex Jr. ($10,100)

Starting Position: 3rd

Truex might garner low ownership even as one of the best road courses racers in the field on Sunday. Starting from the 3rd position gives him little PD upside, but he does have the potential to lead a majority of the laps in this race.

Other Options: Brad Keselowski ($10,600)

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Clinty Bowyer ($8,800)

Starting Position: 12th

Bowyer is priced up this week, but he has been pretty good at road course so I am willing to pay the price. In the Series’ last 6 rc races, but Bowyer has not finished lower than 20th, and has five finishes of 11th or better, including three top 5’s.

Alex Bowman ($8,200)

Starting Position: 27th

Bowman is another of the better upside plays starting 27th. In his last 6 race at road courses, Bowman has not finished lower than 14th. Bowman also has a 4th (2018) and a 2nd place finish (2019) at the Charlotte roval, which is the most comparable course for this weekend.

Other Options: Erik Jones ($9,000), William Byron ($8,600), Matt DiBenedetto ($7,800)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

We got news on Saturday that Austin Dillon has tested positive for COVID-19 and will not be racing this weekend. Dillon will be replaced by Kaz Grala ($6,000) in the #3 RCR Chevy on Sunday. Grala is a very capable replacement for a road course race. Grala has three top 10’s and two top 5’s in the Xfinity series on road courses and has an average finish of 11.7 in 6 races.

Michael McDowell – $7,000 P30
Ricky Stenhouse – $6,500 P25
Kaz Grala – $6,000 P10
Daniel Suarez – $6,900 P31
John Hunter Nemechek – $6,400 P28
Chris Buescher – $6,600 P21
Ryan Newman – $6,300 P14

Thanks for reading this article on the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series 8/16/20 from Daytona Road Course! Make sure you head to the Win Daily Sports Discord for up to date info and help directly from our pros! Head over to Twitter and give the @WinDailySports account and me (@MVecchio81) a follow for all things Fantasy Sports! You can find more FREE NASCAR content over at WinDailySports.com!

5 years ago 0 comments

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NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series from Michigan 8/8/20

Matt Vecchio 5 years ago

written by Matt Vecchio

Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop for Saturday afternoons Cup Series from Michigan International Speedway. We have 156 laps of racing on Saturday evening meaning we only have 117 dominator points available for this race. Like we saw with the Truck Series race Friday night there is some drafting needed, especially on restarts, to make passes. We also saw plenty of blocking, like the block Grant Enfinger tried to throw on Austin Hill to keep him from passing for the lead in Overtime, but he just ended up wrecking himself, Hill, and John Hunter Nemechek.

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

Like with practically every week since NASCAR returned to the track, both Kevin Harvick ($11,000) and Denny Hamlin (10,400) are both the top plays in this tier. It really comes down to the $600 price difference if you are choosing one over the other. Harvick starts 2nd, and Hamlin goes off in the 3rd position.

Martin Truex Jr. ($10,800)

Starting Position: 12th

Martin Truex comes off of two straight 3rd place finishes, and four top 10 finishes in his last 5 races. In his last 6 races at Michigan, Truex Jr. has four finishes of 6th place or better and has also led 187 laps during that 6 race run.

Brad Keselowski ($10,100)

Starting Position: 5th

Keselowski is coming off a dominating performance last in New Hampshire and he comes to one his best track he’s never won at. Dating back to 2014, Keselowski has done everything but win. In twelve races since 2014, Brad has finished outside the top 10 only 3 times, and has led 203 laps while averaging a 7.75 finish.

Other Options: Christopher Bell ($9,900 – P29)

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Erik Jones ($8,800)

Starting Position: 23rd

Erik Jones was informed he would not be returning to the #20 Toyota for the 2021 season and is now racing the rest of this season for a job next year. Jones does not have a ton of success here at Michigan, but nothing motivates someone then fighting for their livelihood. Jones will find a ride for next season, but if he wants a good ride, he will need to show what he has.

Matt DiBenedetto ($8,400)

Starting Position: 15th

This play is just a pure gut play for me. DiBenedetto has been hanging around the top 10 every week it seems and he is coming off 6th place finish last at New Hampshire. I consider Matt DiBenedetto a GPP ONLY play because he does not give you dominator points because he generally isn’t running fastest laps and does not lead laps so he is a pure place differential play.

Both Kyle Busch ($9,500) and Chase Elliott($9,300) are in the mid-tier this week and starting inside the top 10. After what happened with Kyle last week, it is hard to feel confident rostering him, and the same goes for Elliott. I think both will come in severely low owned and could actually be great GPP upside plays.

Other Options: Aric Almirola ($9,100 – P4), Kurt Busch ($8,000 – P10)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

Ty Dillon ($5,700 – P34)
Daniel Suarez ($6,000 – P37)
Corey Lajoie ($5,600 – P36)
Austin Dillon ($7,500 – P18)
Tyler Reddick ($7,200 – P14)
John Hunter Nemechek ($7,000 – P31)
Ryan Preece ($5,800 – P35)
Ricky Stenhouse ($6,900 – P32)

Ty Dillon, Suarez, and Lajoie are the best plays from the bottom, if for no other reason then they are the best place differential plays. Also, Ty Dillon has been very successful at superspeedways in his career and at Michigan. Dillon has raced here 8 times and if you take out his 38th place finish in 2018, he has an average finish of 19th in the other 7 races. For his low price, he has exceptional upside.

Thanks for reading this article on the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series 8/2/20 from New Hampshire Motor Speedway! Make sure you head to the Win Daily Sports Discord for up to date info and help directly from our pros! Head over to Twitter and give the @WinDailySports account and me (@MVecchio81) a follow for all things Fantasy Sports! You can find more FREE NASCAR content over at WinDailySports.com!

5 years ago 0 comments

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NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series from New Hampshire 8/2/20

rmferenc@gmail.com 5 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series breakdown for Sunday’s race from New Hampshire Motor Speedway!

NASCAR gave the teams a nice break to re-energize after a hectic couple of months since the return to racing. New Hampshire is a flat 1-mile track that races similarly to Phoenix. We have 301 laps here so that means there are plenty of dominator points available, 225.75 to be exact, so we will want to find the drivers who can lead this race.

There are a few drivers who I think can dominate this race, and we will get into them shortly. If you are in discord you saw me mention that Joey Logano ($9,800) tested at New Hampshire earlier this year in preparation for the March Phoenix race. Logano won at Phoenix and led 60 laps in the process. Logano hasn’t had much success here, but with some data to go on Logano could have a great car early on since we have no practice before this race

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

Kevin Harvick ($11,600)

Starting Position: 7th

Harvick has 2 wins in his last 4 races at NHMS and as he has been all season since the restart, is a threat to win, but I am not as high on Harvick as I have been lately. I don’t love this price, but it won’t stop me from having some Harvick exposure this weekend. It will take a dominating performance of leading over 100 laps and a win to make value and I am not confident he does that. I will probably lower my exposure from around 50% to something in the 10% range.

Martin Truex Jr. ($10,700)

Starting Position: 11th

Truex is my favorite play this week. He offers the best of everything we are looking for in a driver, he has place differential upside, dominator potential, and has a great track history. New Hampshire is a track that history matters because this track hasn’t changed over time so how a driver has done here is important. Truex has five straight top 10 finishes here and has led 112 laps or more in 4 of his last 6 races here. It’s easy to see why Truex is my favorite play.

Christopher Bell ($10,100)

Starting Position: 35th

We are back to an “overpriced” Christopher Bell race this weekend, but I don’t mind paying the price because I think he pays it off. Bell has won twice here in the Xfinity series, and like I said with Truex, track history matters. While it was the Xfinity Series, it still means that Bell knows how to handle this track and I think he can definitely come away with a top 10 here. Matt DiBenedetto ($8,300) drover the #95 Toyota to a top 10 here last year and I see no reason (other than a wreck) keeping Bell from finishing there on Sunday.

Other Options: Denny Hamlin ($10,400) – I’m fading him, he hasn’t done well with the package they run here, but I can see why you’d play him. Joey Logano ($9,800)

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Kyle Busch ($9,300)

Starting Position: 5th

Yes, we can play Kyle Busch again, and he’s cheap this week. Game log watchers will see his recent troubles and fade him, but those of us who know, know he is going to have a good day on Sunday. New Hampshire has been a very good track for Busch. Kyle has five top 10 finishes in his last 6 here (the 6th was a 12th place finish) including a win in 2017 where he led 187 laps. Busch has led at least 95 laps in four of his last six races here as well. It seems like Busch was having trouble figuring out the high-downforce package, but they aren’t running that at NHMS, so we should be safe playing him.

Chase Elliott ($9,100)

Starting Position: 3rd

Here is another driver I think could dominate this race, at least the early part of it. Elliott is extremely underpriced and will probably be one of, if not, the highest owned drivers this week. I don’t think Almirola keeps the lead off the start, and that’s where Elliott could take off to the lead. Chase doesn’t have the great track history we look for here, but at this price, he is worth taking a risk.

Matt Kenseth ($7,600)

Starting Position: 21st

Matt Kenseth has been an absolute stud at Loudon over his career dating back to 2013. In 11 races since then, Kenseth has nice top 10 finishes including 3 wins. Kenseth has a rough start to his return to the track after his retirement after the 2018 season. Kenseth has had some good finishes of late and at this price, a top 15 will suffice to make value.

Other Options: Erik Jones ($8,900), Matt DiBenedetto ($8,300), Kurt Busch ($7,700)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

The value tier is deep this week, starting with both Austin and Ty Dillon ($7,400 & $5,700 respectively). I don’t love the price for Austin, but he has been consistently good since the return to racing and I could easily see him pick up 10-12 place differential points and possibly hit that 5x value marker we look for. Ty is priced right at $5,700 for starting 25th, but he does have a decent record here. Dillon has finished as high as 16th (twice) and has finished no lower than 23rd.

Austin Dillon ($7,400 – P23)
Ty Dillon ($5,700 – P25)
Ryan Newman ($6,600 – P22)
John H. Nemechek ($7,000 – P36)
Daniel Suarez ($5,900 – P37)
Ricky Stenhouse ($6,800 P31)
Corey Lajoie ($6,200 – P33)

5 years ago 0 comments

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Contrarian #3: Jared Cook $11,400

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Captains Spot: Preferred Chalk and Low Owned Plays.

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Captains Spot: Preferred Chalk and Low Owned Plays.

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