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NASCARPremium

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop Rankings Cup Series: Atlanta 2/23/25

Matt Vecchio
written by Matt Vecchio

Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop for the NASCAR Cup Series. In this article, I list my favorite plays in different categories to help you build your lineups for today’s race.

(Starting position in parenthesis)

(All pricing is for DK)

Top Priority Plays

  • Denny Hamlin (37) – $9.1K: Everyone who knows NASCAR knows that Hamlin is one of the best to do it at superspeedways, but he hasn’t had much luck at Atlanta. Hamlin only has one top 10 at the new Atlanta and four finishes of 23rd or worse. With that being said, it’s hard not to love Hamlin on Sunday when you consider his starting position and price.
  • Christopher Bell (32) – $8.2K: Similar to his teammate listed above Bell has not run exceptionally well at Atlanta. Bell does have two top 5’s here, but the rest of his run here has been 23rd or worse as well. But, like I said about Hamlin, it’s hard to ignore Bell’s starting spot and price.
  • Daniel Suarez (29) – $8.1K: Unlike the two drivers listed above him, Suarez has the best track record at the new Atlanta. In six races here, Suarez has only finished lower than 6th one time (2023). In the other five races here, Suarez has finishes of 4th, 6th, 2nd, 1st, and 2nd. That is a pretty solid run from a driver who struggles pretty much everywhere else outside of road courses.
  • Ty Gibbs (36) – $7.2K: It seems like all the Joe Gibbs Toyota’s had issues qualifying this weekend which in turn makes them all great plays for DFS. Gibbs has only run here four times in the Cup Series, but his track record is much better than his teammates. In his four races here, Gibbs has two top 10’s and a 17th-place finish. His one poor finish was a 34th place finish where he had damages and finished 35 laps down.

Top Value Plays:

  • Corey Lajoie (35) – $6.2K
  • Erik Jones (28) – $6.8K
  • Riley Herbst (27) – $6K
  • Carson Hocevar (26) – $5.7K
  • Justin Haley (21) – $6.7K
  • Shane Van Gisbergen (30) – $5.5K

Top GPP Plays:

  • Kyle Busch (6) – $8.8K
  • Chase Elliott (19) – $9.5K
  • William Byron (16) – $10K
  • Bubba Wallace (14) – $8.3K
  • Ryan Blaney (1) – $9.8K
  • Tyler Reddick (18) – $7.8K

Place Differential Plays:

  • Ross Chastain (33) – $7.6K
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (34) – $7.5K
  • Chase Briscoe (25) – $7.9K
  • Michael McDowell (34) – $7.1K

Thank you for checking out the WinDaily NASCAR driver rankings for this week. Make sure to join our Discord (https://discord.com/channels/637247698868633612/637636891176599552) and follow me on bsky for updates https://bsky.app/profile/mvecchio81.bsky.social

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NASCARPremium

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop Rankings Cup Series: Daytona 500 2/16/25

Matt Vecchio
written by Matt Vecchio

Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop for the NASCAR Cup Series. In this article, I list my favorite plays in different categories to help you build your lineups for today’s race.

(Starting position in parenthesis)

(All pricing is for DK)

Top Priority Plays

  • Brad Keselowski (34) – $9.2K – Keselowsksi is a great Superspeedway driver and will, hopefully, avoid all the carnage and be there at the end of the night. The 7-time Superspeedway winner knows how to navigate the field in these demolition derbys and is my pick to win his first Daytona 500 and 8th race on this track type.
  • Alex Bowman (38) – $8.2K – Bowman is projected as the highest-owned driver on the slate, but he is in one of the best place differential spots in this race starting from P38.
  • Kyle Busch (21) – $9.3K – Kyle Busch is another multi-time Superspeedway winner and some would say he is due. Busch is coming off his first winless as a full-time Cup Series driver and would love to win this race so that doesn’t happen again in 2025. While that may not happen, he is a sure bet for a top 5 if he can avoid the inevitable carnage that will ensure.
  • Zane Smith (37) – $5.8K – Zane has little experience in a Cup car at Daytona, but he does have two wins here in the Truck Series so he knows how to win here. Does Smith have a legit shot at winning on Sunday, sure, but even if he doesn’t win a top 10 and an amazing DFS day are all we need out of him.

Top Value Plays:

  • Jimmie Johnson (40) – $5.5K
  • Carson Hocevar (33) – $6.5K
  • Justin Haley (35) – $6.6K
  • Helio Castroneves (41) – $6K
  • Noah Gragson (32) – $6.8K
  • Cody Ware (28) – $5.2K

Top GPP Plays:

  • Michael McDowell (25) – $7.1K
  • Denny Hamlin (8) – $10K
  • Christopher Bell (20) – $8.8K
  • Ryan Blaney (16) – $9.7K
  • Chase Elliott (17) – $9.5K
  • Ty Gibbs (23) – $7.4K

Mid-Tier Place Differential Plays:

  • Ryan Preece (27) – $8.4K
  • Daniel Suarez (36) – $7.3K
  • Ricky Stenhouse (31) – $7.5K
  • Martin Truex Jr. (39) – $7.2K
  • Josh Berry (29) – $7.7K

Thank you for checking out the WinDaily NASCAR driver rankings for this week. Make sure to join our Discord (https://discord.com/channels/637247698868633612/637636891176599552) and follow me on bsky for updates https://bsky.app/profile/mvecchio81.bsky.social

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NFLSports BettingPremium

NFL Sports Betting – Playoff Bets for Championship Round Weekend

Dave Gloeckner
written by Dave Gloeckner

The four best teams in the NFL remain, and only two will survive after today’s games in the Conference Championship round. We’re coming off a heater, going 3-0-1 last week with game bets. The Commanders and Bills both came through as outright winners despite being underdogs. And the two finalists from 2023, the Eagles and Chiefs, came through as home favorites to potentially setup a rematch from a classic Super Bowl two years ago.

Looking at today we have been gifted with an inter-division matchup meaning teams will see each other for a 3rd time this season in Washington and Philadelphia. Out west, we get another classic matchup of Josh Allen versus Patrick Mahomes. Those two have met three times in the playoffs with the Chiefs winning each. But the Bills have gotten closer each time, losing by 14, by 6 and by 3 points last year.

I’m breaking down the games as they’re played this weekend in chronological order. Along with each game bet, I’ll also provide a few props that I’ll be looking at as well.

NFL BETS CHAMPIONSHIP ROUND WEEKEND (2025 PLAYOFF RECORD: 5-4-1 game bets / 6-4 prop bets)

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES -6 vs WASHINGTON COMMANDERS (3:00 PM EST)

I’ll start this by saying I am an Eagles fan. Which you probably all know by now. So I’m trying my best to pick with my head not my heart here.

With that being said, I respect the heck out of Washington (much like LA last week). They pose so many challenges especially at the QB position. Jayden Daniels is putting up the best rookie season for a QB that we’ve ever seen. And they’re on a heater right now, winning seven straight coming into today’s NFC Championship Game. On defense, while the Commanders rank 23rd in DVOA, they created five turnovers last week in Detroit. They are opportunistic and aggressive, often creating havoc in the backfield at the expense of coverage in the secondary. Dan Quinn knows he’s undersized and undermanned on the D-Line, but he has still found ways to create pressure and impact games defensively.

However, the Commanders magic must run out at some point. The only position on the field today that they can claim to be better is the QB. And while that’s the most important of all positions, football is a team sport. Jalen Hurts had a great week of practice, and his mobility looked good. As long as he’s a threat in the run game, Washington will have fits trying to stop this Eagles offense.

In their last meeting, the Eagles scored touchdowns on three of their first four drives. And several of those were with backup QB Kenny Pickett. It wasn’t until the Commanders stacked the box that they limited the Eagles running game and held them to four FG’s the rest of the way. Pickett wasn’t a threat to run or throw deep. Hurts is both of those. His health and ability to play his game is everything today for the Eagles offense.

Then there’s the fact that Washington is playing their 4th straight road games. Teams in this situation since 2000, with a fourth straight road game in the playoffs, are 0-7 SU and 1-5-1 ATS. Washington is also missing two key players in OL Sam Cosmi and DT Daron Payne. And I haven’t even mentioned the Eagles defense yet. They are ranked #1 overall and #2 in points allowed. This unit has not allowed more than 23 points in a game at home all season. And they allow just 16 points per game at the Linc.

If the Eagles can’t contain Daniels and Hurts can’t be a factor in the running game, then yes, the Commanders can and likely will pull this one out. But the talent advantage all over the field tells me those will be two very tall mountains to climb for Washington. The Eagles will wear down the Commanders and we’ll see Saquon break one late to seal the game. I think it’ll play much like their matchup back in Week 11 when the Eagles won 26-18. The Commanders had the lead in that game heading into the 4th Q. But the Eagles physicality broke through as they recorded three rushing TD’s in the final frame enroute to the victory.

PROP BETS:

TBD

TBD

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS -1.5 vs BUFFALO BILLS (6:30 PM EST)

This game should be fantastic similar to last week’s great battle between Buffalo and Baltimore. There are so many storylines including the Chiefs quest to three-peat and the Bills trying to reach the Super Bowl for the first time in 31 years.

The Chiefs are 16-2 but have shown some vulnerability all season, winning an unprecedented 11 one-score games. In fact, Kansas City was 11-0 in games decided by 8 points or less. The mastery of Mahomes and Reid factored into that mark, but so did some luck like having Isaiah Likely’s toe just step out of bounds or seeing a chip shot FG by Denver get blocked as time expired. The fact is, this team knows how to win. And that’s even more so true in Kansas City where they are 10-0 this season.

The Bills on the other hand are the only team to beat Mahomes this season as the Chiefs only other loss came in Week 18 with Carson Wentz under center. Josh Allen is 4-4 in his career against the Chiefs and has had success in all those starts. The problem is he’s 0-3 in the playoffs, including 0-2 in Arrowhead.

As much as I think the Bills have the recipe and formula to beat the Chiefs. I tend to ask myself, and everyone else this. Who do you think wins if this is a close game? We’ve already laid out the remarkable number the Chiefs have in those situations. The Bills are just 5-3 in one-score games this year. It would take a significant call or some stroke of luck for the Bills to win this one. Which is something we can root for but I can’t let my wallet bet on. Until someone proves they can do it, I’m backing the Chiefs to march onto New Orleans for the Super Bowl.

PROP BETS:

TBD

TBD

Now that you finished reading the NFL CHAMPIONSHIP ROUND PLAYOFF BETS article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

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NFL Game-by-Game Breakdown for the Conference Championship Games

Joe DiCarlo
written by Joe DiCarlo

Then there were four. The most highly anticipated weekend in football has arrived next to the Super Bowl as the winners from each game will be headed to New Orleans. This weekend will also be the last multi-game slate of the season for DFS, so get your fill because the next ones will not be here until September. The best of the AFC and NFC collide on Sunday afternoon, so let’s get this breakdown started.

Stay tuned for all our injury news, updates, and Discord-building advice. Also, check out our Optimizer and Projection Models to get the best possible performance from your lineups. Also, check back into the article during the week as we approach kickoff for more content, as more game breakdowns will be available as we approach Saturday Afternoon.

Sunday Slate 1/26/25

Commanders @ Eagles (-5.5) (O/U 47.5)

We start in Philadelphia as one of these NFC East will decide who will represent the Conference in Super Bowl LIX as the Commanders battle the Eagles. The fairytale story continues for Washington led by rookie Jayden Daniels as they sit one win away from competing on the highest level in the NFL. But not if Nick Fangio and the Eagles’ defensive staff have anything to say about it, as he directs one of the most intense defenses in the league. You are the one to decide who comes out on top and start your lineups with guys from that team.

The day can very well belong to Washington although sitting as five-and-a-half-point underdogs on the road, as Jayden Daniels continues to be an enigma for defensive coordinators throughout the playoffs. I would not be shocked if the rookie pulled off another upset this season, as he leads his team into the endzone while not turning the ball over simultaneously. All of his teammates are fair game for lineups, including the running back position as Ekeler will see hurry-up and pass-catching third-down opportunities while Brian Robinson will get goalline touches. Tight end Zach Ertz will return to Philadelphia one more time and could be leaned on heavily by the rookie quarterback, especially if the Eagles decide to throw a spy on Daniels, Ertz may see passes over the top of the line of scrimmage. The only Commander I’m not feeling is Olamide Zaccheaus, the once-red-hot receiver was a solid option for Daniels. But after suffering a knee injury, the breakout of Dyami Brown, and the return of Jamison Crowder to the field, Zaccheaus will be off my radar.

The writing is on the wall in Philly, win at home and you’re back in the big dance for the second time in three years. The team has ridden the back of Saquon Barkley throughout the regular and post-season, so why would they look elsewhere to move the football? Barkley has rushed for over 2,000 yards on the year while adding over 300 yards in two playoff games and two touchdowns. I believe Sirianni will double down with their top free-agent pickup for one more round, as Washington has been gashed by opposing running backs all year allowing close to 140 yards rushing per game with 18 touchdowns. Saquon stacked with the Eagles’ defense will be a chalky move in DFS this week, but it will be good chalk to eat. Now if you can nail which receiver will hit when Hurts drops back to pass, that will move your lineups up the leaderboards. Their alpha AJ Brown has been very quiet this postseason, catching only three of ten targets for 24 yards, which is gross. His game logs will drive down his ownership in this matchup, so if you want an edge in GPPs, take a shot at the Eagles’ best option to throw to, and it will catapult your lineups if he does wake up from his slumber.

GPP: Jayden Daniels, Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, Terry McLaurin, Zach Ertz, AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith, Dyami Brown, Dallas Goedert, Brian Robinson, Austin Ekeler, Eagles DST

Milly-Maker Punts: Jamison Crowder, John Bates

Bills @ Chiefs (-1.5) (U/O 47.5)

The nightcap will end up in Kansas City as the Bills will tackle the Chiefs for the third time in four post-season meetings and try to get over that hump to land their first Super Bowl visit in over thirty years. Buffalo owns the momentum coming into Sunday after defeating the Ravens, but Kansas City is the reigning champs. They’ve shown signs of weakness this season, especially on the offensive side of the ball, but somehow Pat Mahomes and the defense get the job done when the fourth quarter hits triple zero.

Buffalo has been here before in recent years, each time coming up short on the road in Kansas City. Can this be the year we finally see Josh Allen pull away from the dark clouds at Arrow Head? Many feel the Bills have a legit shot this year because of their recent success during the regular season in Kansas City and their opponents’ inability to move the football consistently.

I don’t have to hype up Allen for DFS, we already know to use him. The remaining Bills to decide are what we are here for. For the Bills to win, they’ll need to run on KC, so I love James Cook. Ty Johnson and Ray Davis have also been in the mix, but are much more of a gamble in lineups as the gamescript needs to favor them heavily. All eyes will be on Allen to take off with the football, not him, so he’ll see fewer defenders.

Khalil Shakir has been Allen’s rock to lean on for passing plays, he leads the team in targets with 113 through the playoffs. Everyone else, well they’re dart throws, as by their very affordable prices under $4K on DraftKings. I’m leaning toward Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox also since the Chiefs’ DVOA is 29th for the tight end position. Love Keon Coleman again this week, he was disappointed against Baltimore, but I smell another 2022 Gabe Davis type of performance from him up the pike.

I know the Chiefs barely squeaked by the Texans in the previous round, but you can never rule out the defending champs when there is a potential to make history by winning three consecutive Super Bowls. This is the second year in a row where we’ve seen them flip a switch in the playoffs to beat their opponents, and that’s built on experience and phenomenal coaching. The field will be all over Travis Kelce in tournaments, however not many will have the cojones to pair him with a $6K Patrick Mahomes. KC failed to convert plenty of third downs last week, which affected Mahomes’ volume, as well as all the penalty flags thrown at Houston…wink, wink.

So if you feel the Bills will put up some points this week then Mahomes will have a negative gamescript and be forced to put the ball in the air. Besides Kelce as far as targets, it will be whoever gets open for Mahomes. Xavier Worthy, DeAndre Hopkins, and Hollywood Brown have been quiet, but they’ll be on the field the most as usual. However, Ju Ju Smith-Schuster did see 67% of the snaps against Houston, so he could also be a factor in this game.

The Chiefs’ backfield has also been dicey, but fairly priced for DFS. Kareem Hunt has been their new goalline back, so if I had to take my pick it would be him, especially after he hit paydirt last weekend. Andy Reid is a hot-hand kind of guy when it comes to carries, so if Isiah Pacheco returns to his usual form this week, he will put Kareem Hunt to bed. We’ve seen glimpses of Samaje Perine on third downs for Kansas City too, but he’s an extremely risky guy.

GPP: Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, James Cook, Xavier Worthy, Kareem Hunt, Khalil Shakir, Dalton Kincaid, DeAndre Hopkins, Hollywood Brown, Keon Coleman, Isiah Pacheco

Milly-Maker Punts: Dawson Knox, Ju Ju Smith-Schuster, Samaje Perine, Ty Johnson, Ray Davis

Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game-by-Game Breakdown for the Conference Championship Games! Remember to check back daily for more updates and content until kickoff. You can reach me on X @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord, tag me @DiCarlo78, for any lineup build opinions or questions. I’m always here to help! Gain access to our projection models and jump into our Discord, where our experts and I will talk about plays across every sport 24/7/365!

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NFLDaily Fantasy SportsPremium

Saturday Night Showdown Strategy: Washington Commanders at Detroit Lions

David Jones
written by David Jones


I prefer a correlated lineup build that tells a compelling game story – a strategy that has proven to win more often than not. For a deeper dive into my general showdown rules, make sure to check out my “Daily Fantasy Football Showdown: Strategy for Building Winning Lineups” article. It’s essential reading for anyone crafting MME lineups, as player salary and team dynamics can impact each game’s approach.

Link To Strategy Article: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/

Note on Quarterbacks:
I tend to not write up the quarterbacks because the wide receiver and tight end sections cover the matchups. The QB rankings are at the bottom of the article.

This is going to be a quick-hitting article this week. The most important part will be the rules at the bottom of the page. I did all the same research but did not have enough time to write up everything I found. 

Washington Commanders

Running Back

Tier 1: Austin Ekeler: Like him in what should be a play-from-behind game for the Commanders

Tier 2: Brian Robinson Jr. 

Punt: Jeremy McNichols: He will be on the field to block but should only benefit with touches if one of the other running backs gets injured

Wide Receiver

The Detroit Lions gave up the second most fantasy points to receivers in the 2024 regular season. 

Tier 1: Terry McLaurin: He is a priority. He will have the highest target percentage and benefit from being on the outside more than the slot.

Tier 2: Olamide Zaccheaus

Tier 3: Dynami Brown: Feels like you are chasing here

Punts: Jamison Crowder, Luke McCaffrey 

Tight End

The Lions only allowed 3 receiving TDs to tight ends the entire season. They allowed the least number of fantasy points to the position in the NFL. That is a scary thing to target, especially with the punts listed below. 

Tier 2: Zach Ertz

Punts: John Bates, Ben Sinnott

Detroit Lions

You want more Lions than Commanders on every team you make on both DraftKings and FanDuel. 

Running Back

FanDuel gave us a nice gift today. David Montgomery is $5,000 because they did not adjust his salary after he was injured. Just go ahead and lock him into 100% of lineups there. This is reminiscent of when they did this with Puka Nacua against the Vikings and only 30% of the field rostered him because they were scared. It is an easy play. Just do it. 

I will personally get all of my Montgomery exposure on FD, but if you are only playing DraftKings you can still play him (I don’t see why you wouldn’t take advantage of the discount on the other site though). 

Tier 1: Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery (FD Lock) 

Tier 2: David Montgomery (DraftKings) 

Punt: Craig Reynolds (he should be worthless with Monty back, he was even while he was out)

Wide Receiver

Tier 1: Amon-Ra St. Brown

Tier 2: Jameson Williams, Tim Patrick (one of my favorite punts on the slate)

Punts: Kalif Raymond, Allen Robinson (Last week Raymond played 6% of snaps while Robinson played 0%. The Lions could very easily just run St. Brown, Williams, and Patrick)

Tight End

Tier 1: Sam LaPorta

Punt: Brock Wright, Shane Zylstra (in that order)

FanDuel MVP and DraftKings CPT Picks –SNF Showdown 

I want a high-usage player at MVP on FanDuel, like a quarterback or a workhorse running back. You need the highest-scoring player, not the best value.  Since the salaries do not change from flex to MVP on FanDuel, the value at the MVP is not a priority. Take the points up top. 

On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range. 

  • FanDuel MVP Tier 1: Jarred Goff, Jayden Daniels, Jahmyr Gibbs
  • FanDuel MVP Tier 2: St. Brown, McLaurin
  • DraftKings CPT Tier 1: Jared Goff, Jayden Daniels 
  • DraftKings CPT Tier 2: St. Brown, Williams, LaPorta, Gibbs, McLaurin
  • DraftKings CPT Punts: Patrick, Zaccheaus

Best Value: Tim Patrick, Olamide Zacceaus, Jameison Crowder

Flex Rankings Tier 1:

  • David Montgomery (FanDuel)
  • Jared Goff
  • Jayden Daniels
  • Amon-Ra St. Brown
  • Jahmyr Gibbs
  • Terry McLaurin
  • Jameson Williams
  • Sam LaPorta
  • Olamide Zaccheaus 
  • David Montgomery (DraftKings)
  • Austin Ekeler
  • Zach Ertz
  • Brian Robinson Jr. 
  • Jake Bates
  • Tim Patrick
  • Dyami Brown
  • Lions D
  • Zane Gonzalez 

Flex Rankings Tier 2: (Don’t play more than 1 Tier 2 or Tier 3 guys)

  • Jameison Crowder
  • Luke McCaffrey
  • Brock Wright
  • John Bates
  • Kalif Raymond

Fadeable Flex Punts: (Don’t play. More than 1 Tier 2 or Tier 3 guys – will probably fade them all)

  • Washington D
  • Ben Sinnott
  • Allen Robinson
  • Shane Zylstra
  • Craig Reynolds
  • Jeremy McNichols 
  • Lawrence Cager

Best Rules for the slate:

We have two very condensed offenses. You don’t have to get too cute tonight. 

  • Lock in David Montgomery on FanDuel or lose
  • Lock in more Lions than Commanders or lose
    • A Lions RB scores every week. Something to consider locking in on a one-game slate.
  • Lock in at least one QB (both together are fine)
    • Pair Goff with 2 pass catchers
    • Pair Daniels with at least 1 pass-catcher
  • Fade the Commanders Defense
  • I am not forcing a kicker, I will be low on Zane Gonzalez 
  • Play at least 2, Gibbs, Monty, St. Brown, Williams, Patrick. LaPorta
  • Running it back with one WAS pass catcher (RB, WR, TE) makes a lot of sense
    • Ekeler or a WR is the best spot on paper
  • Stack your kicker with at least one skill player (I am not forcing a kicker)
    • Someone has to move the ball down the field
  • Don’t play more than one WAS RB
  • You can play both Gibbs and Monty on the same team
  • Don’t play more than 1 Tier 2 or Tier 3 guys

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NFL Sports Betting – Playoff Bets for Divisional Round Weekend

Dave Gloeckner
written by Dave Gloeckner

The best weekend of football is here as we have the eight remaining teams left in the NFL Playoffs. The stories are endless as we have just two QB’s who have won a Super Bowl. But of the remaining six, there are MVP’s, ROY’s and loads of talent. Which shows each team has a chance to get to New Orleans and take claim to the throne as the NFL’s best team. The Wild Card Weekend was a roller coaster for us. The game bets went 2-4 but the prop bets went 4-2. The only reason I ended up on the plus side was due to a 5x bet on the Eagles. Some tailgate waters helped fuel that bravado. But we do need a better showing in the game bets this week to push us onto the plus side of the equation.

I’m breaking down the games as they’re played this weekend, in chronological order. Along with each game bet, I’ll also provide a few props that I’ll be looking at as well.

NFL BETS DIVISIONAL ROUND WEEKEND (2025 PLAYOFF RECORD: 2-4 game bets / 4-2 prop bets)

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS -8.5 vs HOUSTON TEXANS (4:30 PM EST, SATURDAY)

The numbers are astounding for the Chiefs during the Divisional Round in the Patrick Mahomes era. They are 6-0 in this weekend’s games under their star QB. Mahomes has averaged over 300 yards per game and thrown for 16 TD’s to 0 INT’s in this round. And they are looking for their 7th straight trip to the conference championship which trails just the Patriots who went to eight straight during the 2011-2018 stretch. On the other side, Houston is 0-5 in Divisional Round games as they have never advanced to a Championship game. Additionally, they are 0-5 on the road in the playoffs. Both marks make them standalone as they are the only team to never make a Championship game and never win a road playoff game.

And while I like to fade the public and zag when others zig, I saw how the Chiefs finished the regular season and know what type of animal they are in the playoffs. It’s almost like they slow-played their hand for 14 weeks and then started ramping up for the real season. Throwing out the Week 18 game when they rested the starters, the Chiefs ended the regular season 3-0 and covering all three of those games against the spread. They won those games by a collective score of 77 to 36.

And then there’s the Texans. I can’t erase the sights of CJ Stroud trying to throw the game away against LA only to see his defense bail them out. Houston won because they kept LA out of the endzone early (when the game was on the hinges) and then made them one-dimensional which created the turnover opportunities. They won’t get four INT’s today and they likely won’t get a defensive touchdown. For them to win, CJ Stroud will have to be great. And I’m just not sure he can be great enough to do that. The Texans were ranked 26th in offensive DVOA and was the second lowest scoring team of any playoff team at 21.9 ppg.

PROP BETS:

Nico Collins over 80.5 receiving yards (-110 DK). This is a big number. But if you believe in my game script, the Texans will be down early and often. Setting up lots of throwing opportunities for Stroud to Collins. KC is 26th in DVOA against #1 WR’s and are top 12 against all other pass catchers.

Xavier Worthy over 4.5 rushing yards (-110 DK). In Worthy’s last three games, he’s ran for 50 yards on 8 carries. He’s had multiple carries in all three of those games. At this line, we likely just need one carry to get this number. But if we get two, he’s going well over this line. In the first matchup, Houston played 40% Cover 1. Something close to that will give HC Andy Reid the looks he likes to setup a jet sweep and block the outside zone coverage.

WASHINGTON COMMANDERS +9 at DETROIT LIONS

I love the Lions and still project them to be the NFC Champions this year. But this Washington Commanders team is playing with house money while Detroit has the most amount of pressure they’ve ever had. That, in and of itself, is a daunting task for a team that’s not used to playing the favorites role.

And that’s really part of this story. The Commanders played aggressive last weekend. Like they had nothing to lose. HC Dan Quinn went for it on 4th down on five occasions, converting three of those. And based on his aggression, the Commanders never punted last week. They either scored, or turned it over on downs, in their seven possessions. I expect more of the same from Quinn this week as he knows he has to score points to keep up with Detroit.

For the Lions, they welcome back David Montgomery which is a great sign. He is one of the leaders on their team and will surely give them a boost. But before last season, the Lions had not won a playoff game since 1991. In fact, they have just three playoff wins in franchise history in the modern Super Bowl era. While that’s not saying they can’t win today, it just highlights the extreme pressure this team has as it is the best one in franchise history.

I expect the Commanders to hang around long enough to give the Lions a scare. Tampa did so last year in this round as they were tied with Detroit heading into the 4th quarter.

PROP BETS:

Brian Robinson over 1.5 receptions (-110 DK). The Commanders RB’s had 7 receptions last week against Tampa. And Robinson led the way with four. However, this week, Austin Ekeler has a reception prop of double Robinson’s. I’ll take the back that sees the field more to get over his reception prop. Detroit is 29th in the league in DVOA against RB’s in the passing game. If they decide to play the blitz heavy defense they did against Minnesota, Daniels will look for the quick check downs and not fall to the fate that Sam Darnold did.

Jameson Williams over 55.5 yards (-110 DK). The Lions can attack the Commanders defense any way they want. That’s primarily because of all the weapons at Detroit’s disposal. But it’s also because Washington is not very good defensively, ranking 23rd in defensive DVOA. With Lattimore back, I expect the Lions to exploit CB Mike Sainristill who allows 11.8 yards per catch (91st among DB’s) and has 13 missed tackles (ranked 205th among DB’s).

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES -6 vs LA RAMS

The Eagles were significantly better than the Rams in their first outing in LA. Philadelphia won that game by a score of 37-20. They dominated the game offensively and defensively. And despite what you saw from LA last week, they are not that much different than the first outing. The defensive pressure has improved but at the sake of the offense, which scored 20 or less in three of it’s last four games.

Then there’s the eye test. LA looked great against Minnesota. But we just saw the team that allowed just 9 points to the Vikings get completely throttled by the Commanders on Saturday. Yes, the Vikings were absolute frauds. While the Rams dominated the Vikings, that game showed more about Minnesota than it did LA.

The Eagles are better in every phase. Barring a crazy weather game or uncommon turnovers, the Eagles should dominate this game upfront which is where playoff games are won. While the weather is calling for snow, that should actually favor Philly as the offensive line should be able to plow over the smaller Rams defensive front opening up big holes for #26.

PROP BETS: TBD

BUFFALO BILLS +1.5 vs BALTIMORE RAVENS

This is the hardest game of the weekend to handicap. These are two of the top teams in the NFL, and one will have to plan for Cancun weeks ahead of their preferred time. According to DVOA, these are the top 2 offenses in the NFL with Baltimore having a slight edge. Defensively, both teams rank in the top 11. Looking at the standings, both teams finished with a +157 point differential, which was the highest in the AFC and 3rd most in the NFL.

But in this matchup of even teams, I’m riding with the home boys in the Buffalo Bills. The Bills have a few things that I believe are motivational edges. First, they were embarrassed by the Ravens in prime time back in Week 4 losing by 25 points. Derrick Henry ran wild, accumulating 199 rushing yards on just 24 carries. But one thing to note is the Bills were without three starting defensive players in that game. Then there’s the weather factor as there will be snow, and it will be cold. The forecast is calling for single digit temperatures which Buffalo is well equipped for. The last playoff game that Baltimore played in Buffalo was also cold, and the Ravens scored just 3 points as they couldn’t adjust to the frigidness of western NY.

I also factor in Buffalo is 9-0 at home this year, with only 3 of those games being one score affairs. This team is built for this weather and they embrace their home field advantage. Lastly, the Ravens look like they will be without WR Zay Flowers. The lack of Flowers speed can allow Buffalo to creep the safeties up and help scheme against the powerful Ravens running game.

Baltimore is a great team but I’ve seen a few scattered results from them where they get away from who they are. I can easily see them winning but also realize they have some skeletons in their playoff closet too which could come creeping out again today.

PROP BETS: TBD

Now that you finished reading the NFL DIVISIONAL ROUND PLAYOFF BETS article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

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NFL Game-by-Game Breakdown for the Divisional Round

Joe DiCarlo
written by Joe DiCarlo

And then there were eight. The Wild Card Round is in the books as we’re left with four games of some serious football to play, along with some cash to be made in GPPs. Whether you are playing all four games together, Saturday/Sunday only, or Showdown Slates, keep it locked here for your player pools and who to fade this weekend. Get different, but not cute. Only draft players will be on the field. Remember, It’s win or go home for the league so everybody will be rolling out their top players. However, I’ll also be throwing in my Milly Maker Punts for larger field tournaments that I like in each contest that will provide tremendous leverage from the field if they hit paydirt (Washington’s Dyami Brown was last week’s gem).

Stay tuned for all our injury news, updates, and Discord-building advice. Also, check out our Optimizer and Projection Models to get the best possible performance from your lineups. Also, check back into the article during the week as we approach kickoff for more content, as more game breakdowns will be available as we approach Saturday Afternoon.

Saturday Slate 1/18/25

Texans @ Chiefs (-8.5) (U/O 41.5)

The defending champion Kansas City Chiefs kick off the weekend by welcoming the fourth-seed Texans into Arrowhead Stadium. Vegas opened up with a large spread and a low total in this one, as they see the Chiefs’ defense putting CJ Stroud in a vise while the Texans will see a plethora of talent to face at the quarterback and receiver positions.

Get in on the biggest bargain of the slate by stacking up on Mahomes with his loaded receiver core and cash some tickets this weekend. It is downright disrespectful to see DraftKings put Mahomes at just $6K along with Kelce at $5K. We all saw the Chiefs turn up the volume come playoff time last season on their way to winning a second-straight SuperBowl, why not run it back? Xavier Worthy, DeAndre Hopkins, and Marquise Brown are also too cheap. Although the Texans’ DVOA ranks 6th in the league to opposing receivers and quarterbacks, the amount of talent this defense will face will be the most they’ve seen in one game this season. I am not in on the Pacheco/Hunt experience of the Chiefs’ backfield, due to each eating from their plates as well as emphasizing paying up for running back for the slate.

Houston shocked the market with their defense shutting down Justin Herbert and the Chargers picking him off four times and awakening Joe Mixon from his fantasy slumber as he put together a decent 20-point performance in the opening round. Nico Collins also returned to greatness catching seven of eight targets for 122 yards and a score, but the well-rested Stevie Spag’s defense may throw some shade on the near 9-point road dogs. Kansas City took away Mixon and Collins in their first meeting this year back in Week 16 keeping them out of the endzone and far from reaching 100 yards rushing and receiving. If you’re looking for action in Houston, consider Dalton Schultz and John Metchie who are very low-priced and should not receive too much attention while on the field as the focus will surround Collins and Mixon.

GPP: Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Xavier Worthy, DeAndre Hopkins, Marquise Brown, Dalton Schultz, John Metchie, Chiefs DST

Milly-Maker Punts: Justin Watson, Noah Gray, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Xavier Hutchinson, Irv Smith, Teegan Quitoriano

Commanders @ Lions (-9.5) (U/O 55.5)

Saturday Night features the highest total to hit the slate as the Cinderella Washington Commanders head into the Lion’s Den in Detroit to battle the best in the NFC. Can lightning strike twice for Jayden Daniels and Washington or will the team finally fall back down to Earth on the road against the most feared offenses in football? We’ll soon see the results and will highly be using this game heavily in our multi-game DFS contests.

Detroit has put it on tape this year as the top contender in the conference, and they do it by lighting up the scoreboard easily. They’ll also get David Montgomery back on the field ready for the playoffs after suffering a knee injury, but he shouldn’t affect Jahmyr Gibbs’ value on the slate after the monster games he’s had down the stretch as the bell cow. We’ll see him find the endzone in goal-line situations as it’s Gibbs’ job to lose as the Lions’ most versatile weapon on the field. Washington yields nearly 140 yards on the ground to their opponents. If looking to get different in contests, stack Goff with pass catchers like Amon-Ra, La Porta, Jameson Williams, and Tim Patrick as the field should swarm to own Gibbs.

The Commanders defied the odds sending Baker packing at home in the Wild Card, but the buck should stop in Detroit. That’s not to say Washington won’t score either as Jayden Daniels should land the Rookie OPOTY after his season and playoff run. His 104 QBR while being second in the league in rushing at the position in touchdowns (6) and yards per game (58) will place him in plenty of lineups facing a negative gamescript on the road. All of his receivers are viable especially Dyami Brown after his five receptions for 89 yards and a score against Tampa. Pivoting to Austin Ekeler or Brian Robinson at running back should separate you in many contests as your opponents in GPPs will stack the passing game for Washington.

GPP: Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, Sam La Porta, Jayden Daniels, Terry McLaurin, Olamide Zaccheaus, Zach Ertz, Dyami Brown, Austin Ekeler, Brian Robinson

Milly-Maker Punts: Tim Patrick, Brock Wright, Jamison Crowder, John Bates

Sunday Slate 1/19/25

Rams @ Eagles (-6) (U/O 47.5)

Sunday kicks off in Philadelphia for the second half of the Divisional Round as the Rams tackle the Eagles. LA’s disastrous fires around the city instilled a shot in the arm for the Rams this past Sunday in their decisive win against Minnesota, and they’ll aim to carry that momentum into Lincoln Financial Stadium. The Eagles also came out on top with a victory against the Packers, but it wasn’t pretty, as they leaned more on their defense which led to Jordan Love’s three picks. So far this week Sunday has some snow in the forecast with temperatures in the twenties, which may affect some of the scoring in this game.

The Rams’ defense also came up big this past Sunday, forcing Darnold to take nine sacks with two turnovers. The Eagles looked stale on offense, with Jalen Hurts still not 100 percent after suffering a concussion back in Week 16. I’m taking a shot on a cheaper defense of LA ($2,700) who have shown up strong in two of their last three games (23,14 FPTS.). Puka Nacua will face a tough matchup in Philly (4th in DVOA to opposing WRs), but he’s an elite talent and always a play in DFS. However, I prefer leaning toward running back Kyren Williams. His volume is through the roof in the backfield and heavily involved in the passing game. After watching Josh Jacobs breakthrough that Eagles’ front line last weekend, head coach Sean McVay could be rewinding some tape this week to get Williams into the same routine.

Philadelphia also utilized their defense to advance further into the playoffs and could very well need them to show up again to keep their championship hopes alive. LA came out guns blazing and could have the same hot start on Sunday unless the Eagles make some adjustments. Now LA is a dome team that is used to playing in a comfortable environment. Since they’ll be playing in 20-degree weather with real-feel temps at 15 and a chance of snow, I’ll also be using the Eagles’ defense for DFS.

Their offense was kicking rocks passed the Packers, literally from the leg of Jake Elliot’s five field goals on Sunday. To pay up for guys like Saquon and AJ Brown, who only had one catch in the Wild Card, would be pretty ballsy for DFS. However, I am interested in Jalen Hurts at just $6,800 on DraftKings. He showed us he’s still willing to use his legs at six yards per carry last week, and if the Rams are going to blitz as much as they did in Minnesota, we should see a strong performance from him. DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert are still a bargain and would make a nice underpriced stack alongside Hurts.

GPP: Jalen Hurts, Puka Nacua, Kyren Williams, Rams DST, Saquon Barkley, AJ Brown, Eagles DST, DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, Cooper Kupp, Matt Stafford, Tyler Higbee, Rams DST

Milly-Maker Punts: Demarcus Robinson, Colby Parkinson, Davis Allen, Jahan Dotson

Update: Snow in the forecast in Philadelphia

Ravens @ Bills (1.5) (U/O 51.5)

We wrap up the weekend with the most anticipated matchups on the slate as the Ravens head up north to battle the Bills. In their first meeting back in Week 4, Baltimore manhandled Buffalo 35-10 at home, however, the Bills will host this rematch in the playoffs. This game should see fireworks, with a total over 50 and a tight 1-point spread, and could be another snow game on the slate, Plug away on both sides of this contest for your lineups.

I will be jamming Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry into my builds this weekend, regardless of their salaries. The duo has combined for well over 3,000 yards rushing with 20 touchdowns and has been impossible to stop as the number-one-ranked rushing offense in the game. With all the success in the run game, Lamar’s pass attempts rarely hit over twenty, but when they decide to throw the ball downfield, it’s been all Mark Andrews, Isaiah Likely, and Rashod Bateman. Now that Zay Flowers has been labeled doubtful to play and more of a high-pace game, expect to see more of Justice Hill in the backfield too, especially if Buffalo puts them in a hole early.

It’s do-or-die again for one more year in Buffalo, and the weight will once again rest on Josh Allen’s shoulders. Allen is a lock at quarterback obviously, but to stack him with any of his receivers other than Khalil Shakir would be pretty risky because of his generosity with the football. He’s hit 13 different receivers this year for touchdowns, but Shakir leads the team in targets with 106 this season. Baltimore’s secondary will be put to the test, still at a DVOA of 27th to opposing receivers and quarterbacks, feel free to take a shot on anyone else lined up alongside Allen. Keon Coleman, Amari Cooper, Mack Hollins, and Dalton Kincaid are some of the names who regularly see the field.

How about James Cook, is he a good play? He’ll be up against the top-run defense so it will be a leverage move to draft him in this matchup as he’ll see very little ownership. If this game does stay close, we can expect to see more of Cook and less of Ty Johnson, who has been culturing touchdown passes from the latter. If Allen exposes Baltimore’s weakness in its secondary, Cook may see fewer opponents in the box and produce a solid stat line.

GPP: Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, Josh Allen, Khalil Shakir, Rashod Bateman, Mark Andrews, James Cook, Keon Coleman, Dalton Kincaid, Amari Cooper

Milly-Maker Punts: Isaiah Likely, Nelson Agholor, Tylan Wallace, Justice Hill, Mack Hollins, Ty Johnson, Dawson Knox, Curtis Samuel

Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game-by-Game Breakdown for the Divisional Round! Remember to check back daily for more updates and content until kickoff. You can reach me on X @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord, tag me @DiCarlo78, for any lineup build opinions or questions. I’m always here to help! Gain access to our projection models and jump into our Discord, where our experts and I will talk about plays across every sport 24/7/365!

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Saturday Night Showdown Strategy: Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens

David Jones
written by David Jones

Wild Card Weekend is here!


I prefer a correlated lineup build that tells a compelling game story – a strategy that has proven to win more often than not. For a deeper dive into my general showdown rules, make sure to check out my “Daily Fantasy Football Showdown: Strategy for Building Winning Lineups” article. It’s essential reading for anyone crafting MME lineups, as player salary and team dynamics can impact each game’s approach.

Link To Strategy Article: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/

Note on Quarterbacks:
I tend to not write up the quarterbacks because the wide receiver and tight end sections cover the matchups. The QB rankings are at the bottom of the article.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Running Back

  • The Ravens allowed the 4th least fantasy points to running backs in the NFL in the regular season (19.5)
  • They gave up eight rushing and four receiving TDs
  • They gave up the 11th most receptions to the position

Jaylen Warren was the Steelers RB who succeeded in the first matchup against the Ravens. He got 12 carries while catching all five of his targets. He finished with 14.2 DK points. Najee Harris had nine carries and no receptions for only 4.2 DK points. 

With how good the Ravens are against the run I am not making either a priority, but Warren is the preferred option if you land on one. 

Tier 1: Jaylen Warren

Tier 2: Najee Harris

Punt: Cordarrelle Patterson 

Wide Receiver

  • The Ravens allowed the 5th most fantasy points the WR in the regular season (37.4 per game)
  • They gave up 17 receiving touchdowns to wide receivers, two of which came from Russell Wilson

On paper, George Pickens has the best matchup. He is coming off a terrible game, but he has proven throughout the season that he will be Wilson’s preferred target. He should also be on the field for almost all offensive snaps. For a large portion of the game, he will be avoiding Marlon Humphry, who is the Raven’s best cover corner. Humprey should see Calvin Austin for around 60% of his routes. Austin is a big play-type receiver, but I wouldn’t expect that big play to come out of one of his slot routes. He is a fine punt option, but overall my least favorite starting Steelers receiver.

Van Jefferson is one of my favorite punts. He will play primarily on the right side of the field, which will be covered by Brandon Stephens. Stephens allowed the most production to wide receivers, via YPRC, in the regular season. Jefferson is only going to have a couple of opportunities so he will need a big play. 

Mike Williams and Ben Skowronek, in that order, are worth a shot in large-field GPPs. Williams played 23% of snaps last game, while Skowronek played 8%. 

Tier 1: George Pickens

Tier 2: Van Jefferson, Calvin Austin

Punt: Mike Williams

Ben Skowronek Tier: Ben Skowronek

Tight End

  • The Ravens gave up 13.1 fantasy points per game to the position
  • They allowed five receiving TDs

Pat Freiermuth was a much better, basically no-brainer play, last slate. Just because he had a good last game does not mean he will this game. The Ravens are better against the TE than wide receivers. That said, Freiermuth is someone you can feel comfortable with for his floor, but the upside seems limited in this matchup. 

Darnell Washington fell off in a big way, and MyCole Pruitt and Connor Heyward are the definition of a deep punt on a showdown slate. They are all prayers. 

Tier 1: Pat Freiermuth

Punts: Washington, Pruitt, Heyward

Baltimore Ravens 

Running Back

  • The Steelers gave up 20.9 fantasy points to RBs in the regular season
  • They allowed 12 rushing TDs and one receiving

I don’t fade Derrick Henry on showdown slates. I will have as many stacks as I can with both him and Lamar Jackson. On the remaining teams I make I will force one of the two. 

Justice Hill is a solid cheap option. He is a key, yet under-the-radar piece in the Ravens offense. With Zay Flowers ruled out, he may even be in a larger pass-catching role. 

Keaton Mitchell likely will not see the field unless Hill gets injured. 

Tier 1: Derrick Henry 

Tier 2: Justice Hill 

Punt: Keaton Mitchell, Patrick Ricard

Wide Receiver

  • The Steelers allowed 26.7 fantasy points per game to the position
  • They allowed 15 receiving TDs

Zay Flowers has been ruled out. Rashod Bateman will step into the WR1 role. This on one hand is good for Bateman’s outlook, but on the other hand, it is very bad as the Steelers will now key in on stopping him, having very little fear of being beaten by anyone else. 

Bateman will see a hefty amount of Joey Porter Jr. and Donte Jackson. Both of which are very good. Bateman makes sense on a showdown because of his salary and newfound opportunity alone, but that is it. I cannot make him a priority. 

Nelson Agholor was a healthy scratch last week and now he will get the majority of the slot routes against Cameron Sutton. Good lunch with that. 

Tylan Wallace stepped in and played 73% of snaps last week after Flowers went down. I hate the matchup for him but love his speed. He is a better play than Agholor. 

Devontez Walker is worth a shot in the Milly Maker but should be on the field the 4th most out of the guys I mentioned above. Steven Sims is on the roster but hasn’t played a snap all season. 

Tier 1: Rashod Bateman

Tier 2: Tylan Wallace

Punts: Nelson Agholor, Devontez Walker

Tight End

  • The Steelers gave up 14.4 fantasy points per game the position
  • They allowed 7 receiving TDs

You force in either Mark Andrews or Isaiah Likely in every lineup. It is as easy as that. Both are fine on the same lineup. 

Tier 1: Mark Andrews, Isaiah Likely

Punt: Charlie Kolar

FanDuel MVP and DraftKings CPT Picks –SNF Showdown 

I want a high-usage player at MVP on FanDuel, like a quarterback or a workhorse running back. You need the highest-scoring player, not the best value.  The salaries do not change from flex to MVP on FanDuel, so the value at the MVP is not a priority. Take the points up top. 

On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range. 

FanDuel MVP Tier 1: Derrick Henry, Lamar Jackson

  • DraftKings CPT Tier 1: Derrick Henry, Lamar Jackson
  • DraftKings CPT Tier 2: Russell Wilson, Mark Andrews
  • DraftKings CPT Tier 3: George Pickens, Rashod Bateman, Isaiah Likely, Jaylen Warren

Best Value: Van Jefferson, Tylan Wallace

Flex Rankings Tier 1:

  • Derrick Henry
  • Lamar Jackson
  • Mark Andrews
  • Isaiah Likely
  • Russell Wilson
  • George Pickens
  • Jaylen Warren
  • Rashod Bateman
  • Chris Boswell 
  • Najee Harris
  • Justin Tucker
  • Pat Freiermuth
  • Tylan Wallace
  • Justice Hill 
  • Van Jefferson
  • Calvin Austin
  • Ravens Defense 
  • Mike Williams
  • Steelers Defense 

Flex Rankings Tier 2: (Don’t play more than 1 Tier 2 or Tier 3 guys)

  • Nelson Agholor
  • Devontez Walker
  • Ben Skoronek
  • Darnell Washington 
  • Cordarrelle Patterson
  • Charlie Kolar
  • Patrick Ricard

Fadeable Flex Punts: (Don’t play. More than 1 Tier 2 or Tier 3 guys – will probably fade them all)

  • MyCole Pruitt
  • Connor Heyward
  • Steven Sims
  • Keaton Mitchell 

Best Rules for the slate:

We have two very condensed offenses. You don’t have to get too cute tonight. 

  • Lock in, Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson. In MME you build as many teams as you can with those two. Once you have hit your limit, then you can alternate them on different lineups. This build strategy is going to force you into some uncomfortable punts. That’s good for showdowns if you make a lot of lineups. If you are only making one lineup, ignore it. 
  • Lock in at least one; Andrews or Likely (both are fine in the same lineup)
  • I always play a QB, so today will be no different. Lock one in
  • The numbers tell me to play at least one Steelers pass catcher, so that is what I will do (this is just playing at least one Steeler that isn’t a QB, D, or K)
  • I am high on kickers in this one. A lot of my teams will feature Boswell or Tucker
  • Stack your kicker with at least one skill player (I am not forcing a kicker)
    • Someone has to move the ball down the field
  • Don’t play more than one PIT RB or PIT TE, per lineup
  • Don’t play more than 1 Tier 2 or Tier 3 guy 

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NFL Sports Betting – Playoff Bets for Wild Card Weekend

Dave Gloeckner
written by Dave Gloeckner

The day is finally here as 14 teams enter the NFL Playoffs with all the same goal, lifting the Vince Lombardi trophy come the night of February 9th. And what better way to celebrate the playoffs as a fan then have a little extra skin in the game. Which is exactly why we’re here. After a “mid” regular season where I finished 48-47-1, we’re looking to the end the year with a bang (similar to how we’ve nailed the College Football Bowl Season). So join us on this upcoming journey and tail, fade or pass. But either way get ready for the ride because these next 5 weeks will bring us some of the best football we’ve seen all year.

I’m breaking down the games as they’re played this weekend, in chronological order. Along with each game bet, I’ll also provide a few props that I’ll be looking at as well.

NFL BETS WILD CARD WEEKEND (2024 SEASON RECORD: 48-47-1, game bets only)

LA CHARGERS -2.5 at HOUSTON TEXANS (4:30 PM EST, SATURDAY)

If you’ve read my articles this year, then you understand that I like to fade heavy public interest in games. Typically, that is a winning strategy but this year it didn’t hit as often as we’d expect. So I adjusted late and bought into some of the games where there was heavy square money. The point of all that is what we’re seeing today in the Chargers and Texans game. Los Angeles is being picked to win by every NFL analyst whether on TV or the internet. And the window in Vegas is backing that as 72% of the bets and 71% of the money is on Jim Harbaugh’s team. And honestly, this is usually a zig when they zag spot for me, but today it’s not.

I just simply can’t ignore the Texans inefficiencies for most, if not all, of the season. Houston is the worst offensive team in the playoffs, and it’s not close. They rank 25th overall in offensive DVOA which puts them in the likes of New Orleans, Dallas, New York Giants and the Chicago Bears. Most of those teams will be picking in the top 10 of the draft and weren’t close to playoff football. From a pure statistics perspective, it wasn’t great either as the Texans racked up just 319.7 total yards per game which is good for 13th out of the 14 playoff teams (Pittsburgh only team worse at 319.4). Same goes with points scored as they averaged 21.9 points per game, also ranking 13th of the 14 playoff teams (LA Rams came in at 21.6 ppg).

A lot of the offensive issues were due to the injuries and an inconsistent QB and offensive line. Upfront, Houston ranked 19th in pass blocking and 27th in run blocking. Because of that, the Texans allowed 54 sacks which was the third most in the NFL. At the helm, QB CJ Stroud took a step backwards in his sophomore season as he threw just 20 TD’s with 12 INT’s. The latter stat was tied for the 4th most in the NFL. The more concerning part is that Stroud was ranked 25th in QBR, with three rookie QB’s ranked higher as well as his fellow sophomore Bryce Young. A lot of that was due to teams bringing pressure against Stroud. The Texans were blitzed the 3rd most in the league but gave up the highest pressure rate at 27.2%.

While this has been all about the Texans, the point here is the Chargers have a much better offense than Houston. LA ended up ranking 13th in offensive DVOA and 11th in points per game. Their QB, Justin Herbert, threw just three interceptions all season as the Chargers turned the ball over just 9 times this season, 2nd fewest in the league. While Houston’s defense will keep them in the game, I trust Herbert and his corps of receivers much more. I think this is the day we see the Chargers actually win a close playoff game and set their sights to next week and a possible matchup with KC.

NOTE: I’m buying a half point here which brings the juice up to -125. Most books have not moved off the key number of 3.

PROP BETS: John Metchie III over 24.5 receiving yards (-110 DK). The Chargers rank 30th in DVOA against WR2’s. By default, Metchie has been playing WR2 for Houston.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS +9.5 at BALTIMORE RAVENS

We’re back to our regularly scheduled program. I’m backing a team the public has totally dismissed in the Pittsburgh Steelers. We’ve talked prior about how good of an underdog Mike Tomlin is. In fact, he’s the second-best coach ATS (active) as an underdog hitting at a 64% rate with a 62-35-3 record. And if we follow this rivalry close enough, we know these games are always tight as nine of the last ten have been one score games (the last game is the only one that wasn’t but a Russel Wilson fumble at goal line was likely the reason why).

Then there’s the Lamar in the playoffs factor as the Ravens QB is just 2-4 in the playoffs. This includes a 1-3 record at home. None of those games were with the sledgehammer he has in the backfield this year in Derrick Henry. But there’s still a little playoff uncertainty from the two-time NFL MVP.

In the end, this is a divisional game that is between two hated rivals. No rah-rah speeches are needed and they have enough motivation just seeing the other teams jersey to be ready for this one. There is split action at the windows, with 49% of the money on Pittsburgh and 51% on Baltimore. There are some major trends that do point to Baltimore (home favorites of 9+ in Wild Card Round are 10-1 ATS in last 20 years) but I’m sticking with my intuition here and banking on the Steelers to have enough offense to make this one scary for the Ravens.

PROP BETS: George Pickens over 56.5 yards (-110 DK). The Ravens allow the most yards to WR1 on the season. And it’s by a wide margin. Pickens has been trash but he’s also into the trash talk. Look for the Steelers to get him going early and let the talking fuel his game. Pittsburgh’s only chance to win is to get Pickens involved early and often.

BUFFALO BILLS -9 vs DENVER BRONCOS

This game is very intriguing on many levels. First off, I saw a pre-draft interview recently where HC Sean Payton said Bo Nix had similar qualities to the person he’s opposing today, Josh Allen. It was high praise considering Josh Allen is one of the best players in the NFL. But Nix hasn’t disappointed his coach’s claims as he had a stellar rookie season throwing for over 3700 yards and registering 29 passing TD’s to just 12 interceptions. And the last number is the key as he threw 9 of those 12 INT’s in just four games. And ever since he started to get acclimated to the league, Denver has been on a tear as they’ve won five of their last seven games. The only two losses were in OT to the Bengals and by one score to the Chargers.

The Bills on the other hand have absorbed playoff failure time and time again. Under Josh Allen, the Bills are 5-5 in the playoffs. And it hasn’t been his fault, necessarily, on why they find ways to lose. Allen has a 21 to 4 touchdown to interception ratio in the playoffs. But it’s always something with Sean McDermott’s team. Last season was setup perfectly for them, bringing the Chiefs to Buffalo in the Divisional Round. However, they still found a way to lose. Fitting the narrative that the weight of the playoffs often consumes this team.

My biggest concern this year is the lack of weapons at Allen’s disposal. However, the good news is the Broncos can be exposed in the passing game without using the WR’s. Denver allows the 5th most receiving yards to RB’s and the 2nd most receiving TD’s. And DVOA has them as the 31st ranked pass D against backs. So watchout for a big game from James Cook. I also think this is a good spot for Allen. Denver thrives on creating pressure at the line and he’s one of the best at alluding it.

Additionally, the way to attack Buffalo is on the ground as the air as they rank 28th versus WR1 and 29th versus WR2 according to DVOA. But I just can’t trust a rookie QB enough to put my money behind them in a game where he will be relied on to make big plays. Denver will keep it close for a while but Buffalo pulls away late and covers the number.

PROP BETS: James Cook over 1.5 receptions (-110 DK). The Broncos are so good against the pass on the perimeter that you have to check down to your outlets. Plus they love to send pressure, sending the blitz 29.5% (7th in league), that we could see two RB packages that allow one of them to get free in coverage.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES –5 vs GREEN BAY PACKERS

First off, this may come with some bias. So tread carefully and tail if you believe what I’m saying. But if you’ve followed me this year, I’m very reluctant to bet on the Birds. And when I do, I’ve been on the right side.

To me, the difference in this game is the Eagles defense. They are the #1 ranked unit as far as yards per game and the second-best team in points per game. The Packers are without their one receiver that can stretch defenses, as Christian Watson is out with an injured knee. This will allow the Eagles to stack the box and try to control the Packers running game. Which is the strength of this team.

We’ve also know the Packers are just 1-5 against NFC playoff teams with their lone win against the Rams. And now they’re dealing with a potential injury to their best defender (outside of Xavier McKinney) in Quay Walker. While Green Bay was the surprise team last year, I don’t see them having enough bullets in the chamber to threaten the Eagles D.

PROP BETS: Saquon Barkley over 20.5 rushing attempts (-110 DK). Jalen Hurts is returning from a concussion so I expect most of the RPO’s to go to Barkley. The other thing is, I see the Eagles having a lead and trying to bleed the clock by running Saquon.

TAMPA BAY BUCS -3 vs WASHINGTON COMMANDERS

We have another matchup of teams that met way back in Week 1. Whatever we can glean from that game, is likely moot for this one. Both teams are much different then they were in September. Jayden Daniels ended up with the 4th best QBR in the NFL. But his WBR of 35.7 in Week 1 was his 3rd worst total of the season. His progress is a huge reason why Washington is seeded 6th and finished with 12 wins. As for Tampa, they look different than what they were in September mainly because of their offensive adjustments. After losing Chris Godwin, this team went into young mode and focused on growing their young WR corps, like Jalen McMillan, and shifting their primary RB from Rachaad White to rookie Bucky Irving.

The reason why I lean towards the home team is because of Todd Bowles ability to confuse and frustrate QB’s. He has made a living on that and will try to show young Jayden Daniels a litany of looks he hasn’t yet seen. And Washington thrived against lesser competition but was just 1-4 against playoff teams, including 0-3 on the road.

PROP BETS: Bucky Irving over 88.5 rushing yards (-110 DK). Washington was 26th in run defense DVOA. And they allowed the 3rd most rushing yards per game. If they decide to stack the box, Baker will shred them. I think they play an aggressive D that tries to create havoc and will leave holes for big plays with Irving.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS -2.5 at LA RAMS

I’m riding on the Vikings in this one as they were the better team all season. The Lions exposed QB Sam Darnold last week as he played his worst game of the season while facing intense pressure all evening. But the throws that he missed can be coached up. And the Vikings were in the game until midway through the 3rd quarter. While I do think Minnesota is slightly overrated, they are a better offensive team and defensive team than the Rams.

DEFENSE:

Minnesota: 5th in ppg (19.5),16th in yards per game (335.4), 2nd in DVOA

LA Rams: 17th in ppg (22.7), 26th in yards per game (353.1), 26th in DVOA

OFFENSE:

Minnesota: 9th in ppg (25.6), 12th in yards per game (349.4), 15th in DVOA

LA Rams: 20th in ppg (21.6), 15th in yards per game (331.4), 10th in DVOA

In all those stats, the Rams only have an edge in offensive DVOA, and it’s by the slightest of margins. While Stafford is the better QB, the Vikings are the overall better team and I see them playing inspired ball following their tough loss in Detroit and advancing to the Divisional Round with a win in LA, or Arizona against LA.

Now that you finished reading the NFL BETS & SURVIVOR POOL PICKS article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

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NFL Game-by-Game Breakdown for Wild Card Weekend

Joe DiCarlo
written by Joe DiCarlo

Well, another NFL Season is in the books. 14 teams remain in contention for the Lombardy Trophy in New Orleans in just over a month from now. It’s win or go home as we enter the Wild Card round where we’ll only get six games sprinkled over the weekend until Monday Night. Here we will look at salaries and who to roster for DFS in each matchup, so let’s cut right to the meat and potatoes. We’ll only focus on GPP plays during the playoffs since the player pools have been cut down drastically allowing us better chances of taking down tournaments.

Stay tuned for all our injury news, updates, and Discord-building advice. Also, check out our Optimizer and Projection Models to get the best possible performance from your lineups. Also, check back into the article during the week as we approach kickoff for more content, as more game breakdowns will be available as we approach Monday Night.

Saturday Slate 1/11/25

Chargers @ Texans (+3) (U/O 42.5)

The fourth and fifth seeds collide to kick off the playoffs in Texas as the Chargers play the Texans. LA is back to full strength with the return of running back JK Dobbins from IR. He looked spry in his first game back carrying the ball 18 times for 63 yards while adding three catches for 12. Meanwhile, the Texans ended their season on a high note against a cupcake matchup between the Titans, who allowed quarterback CJ Stroud to find the endzone on his first and only series in the finale of the season.

As home underdogs, Houston will face a Chargers defense that was ranked number one overall in points allowed for the season. They’ll face an uphill road to the endzone as they’ve been short-handed at receiver with no reliable other than Nico Collins. Texans’ running back Joe Mixon seems to have fallen off a cliff towards the end of the regular season, as he hasn’t seen over 100 yards rushing since Week 13 after starting on fire. However, the Chargers are a team that refuses their opponents to run the football, as their DVOA is 7th to opposing backs. Paying up for Nico Collins and Joe Mixon along with paying down for Stroud would be pretty risky in DFS this week, consider paying a reasonable salary at the tight end for Dalton Schultz ($3,600 on DK) to get different in GPPs.

LA enters the contest as a favorite to win on the road, thanks to their tight defense, play calling, and Justin Herbert returning to his gunslinger role while JK Dobbins was injured. Now that Dobbins appears to be back, the Chargers may have a lock into the Divisional Round if they can hold up defensively to a Texans’ team that has struggled to find the end zone recently. But with Dobbins back on the injury report with an ankle issue, Herbert may be asked once again to air it out. Houston’s DVOA ranks 20th through the passing game, so it’s an arrow in the right direction for Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston, and Will Dissly. If you’re looking to pivot and get different in this matchup, Derius Davis at $3,300 will be on the field quite a bit as he replaces Josh Palmer at WR3, and he’s scored double-digit fantasy points in two of his last three games.

GPP: Justin Herbert, Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston, Will Dissly, JK Dobbins (if healthy), Dalton Schultz, Derius Davis

Update: Quentin Johnson and Josh Palmer still not practicing, DJ Chark is now a pivot at wide receiver

Steelers @ Ravens (-10) (U/O 43.5)

Next, we head over to the AFC North where the third and sixth seeds will battle it out as the Steelers take on the Ravens Saturday Night. It’ll be a cold night in Baltimore where two top defenses will go at it giving us a low 43-point total, but Pittsburgh’s puttering offense led by Russell Wilson ended up making them ten-point dogs on the road. The Ravens bring a lot to the table and have been lighting it up on both sides of the ball, forcing the Steelers to go big or go home this weekend.

Pittsburgh will face the number-one-ranked run defense in Baltimore, a team that has only allowed 80 yards rushing this season. This diminishes Najee Harris’ production but could elevate Jaylen Warren in the third-down role catching passes out of the flat. The Steelers in order to win will need to get the ball into the hands of their best player-George Pickens. Last week was a gross in the game against Cincinnati, with one catch for zero yards. He made a lot of fantasy managers, including myself very unhappy. Expect a bounce-back week in the Wild Card as Tomlin and Arthur Smith will scheme to have Russell Wilson get him the football against a Ravens’ secondary that has allowed over 4,100 passing yards in 2024.

Baltimore will continue to roll out the number-one rushing offense until it can be stopped, even against one of the most put-together defenses led by TJ Watt. Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry continue to punish opposing tackles and linemen with their ability to run their RPO down their throats. When Baltimore does decide to throw the ball, it’s been all Mark Andrews and Rashod Bateman towards the end of the regular season. Zay Flowers has not practiced this week after suffering a knee injury in the closing game against Cleveland, so expect more usage from Bateman and Andrews if Flowers sits out Saturday. Isaiah Likely and Tylan Wallace (73% of the snaps in Week 18) will also see a bump if Flowers is out, and provide some decent leverage in GPP tournaments if they land in the endzone.

GPP: Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, Mark Andrews, Baltimore DST, Rashod Bateman, Jaylen Warren, George Pickens, Isaiah Likely, Tylan Wallace

Update: Zay Flowers is OUT

Sunday Slate 1/12/25

Broncos @ Bills (-8.5) (U/O 47.5)

Day two of the Wild Card Round of 2025 will kick off in Buffalo as the Bills host the Broncos. Rookie Bo Nix will lead his team across the country alongside head coach Sean Payton as huge underdogs on the road. The weather forecast will be cold, with a possibility of snow, which could affect the total if it does begin to fall. Josh Allen and the Bills will be well rested after sitting out most of Week 18 and should be ready to wipe the floor with Denver.

For DFS on the Broncos side, do not be so quick to take the discount at quarterback for Bo Nix. He had a huge Week 18 that propelled his team into the playoffs, but it was against a Chiefs’ defense that rested everybody. Asking a rookie to take on a juggernaut of defense on the road will be a big task, as the Bills will be ready to put on the pressure. Courtland Sutton and Marvin Mims have been his top targets, grabbing six touchdowns combined in their last two games, so they should see plenty of attention. Devaughn Vele plays the most snaps next to Sutton and could have his own big day if the defense focuses on his teammates.

Buffalo, we know where our bagels are buttered for DFS, and it’s the NFL’s QB-1, Josh Allen. If you can fit him in a lineup that works for you, then roll with it. He’s the ultimate dual threat at quarterback, who loves to spread out the passing targets. It’s tough to pinpoint who will be on the receiving end for the Bills in every matchup, so for DFS it’s best to pay down on their receivers. Amari Cooper has fallen to $4,900 on DraftKings, not because of talent but for availability. He’s been away from the team attending to a family matter but will suit up and has been back to practice this week.

James Cook is a smart pivot if you feel like fading Allen because of the Broncos’ defense. The second-year back landed in the endzone 18 times this season and could see more visits on Sunday afternoon if the Broncos can contain the Bills’ passing game and deploy a spy on Allen. The Bills’ DST also makes a nice stack alongside Cook, especially if Denver’s offense cannot get off the ground and Cook gets extra reps to eat off the clock.

GPP: Josh Allen, James Cook, Amari Cooper, Bills DST, Devaughn Vele, Khalil Shakir, Courtland Sutton

Packers @ Eagles (-4.5) (U/O 45.5)

We’ll head back over to the NFC for Sunday afternoon as the Packers take on the Eagles in Philadelphia. Both teams have suffered some injuries to the starting quarterback position to close out the regular season, yet both of them have been cleared to play are Jalen Hurts and Jordan Love. Starting either this week for DFS would be a high-risk, high reward if this game becomes a shootout.

The Eagles enter this game as nearly five-point favorites but have been very cautious with Jalen Hurts’ concussion he suffered back in Week 16. This being his first game in three weeks, I expect the staff to curb his rushing attempts and have Saquon Barkley shoulder the bulk of carries, who should be well-rested after sitting out last week. Paying up for AJ Brown who may see plenty of Jaire Alexander could also be risky, so consider DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert who are safely priced much less than Brown and could produce the same value.

Green Bay has ridden the coattails of Josh Jacobs all season long, as he was sixth in the league in carries and rushing yards, along with 16 total touchdowns. They’ve become a run-first offense even with all the talent they have in their receiving core. Philadelphia however, will be waiting in the wings for their approach, and their defense is second in DVOA to opposing running backs, allowing only 104 yards per game this season. The Pack will need to move the chains through the air, so a lot will rest on Love’s shoulders. They’ll be without Christian Watson, so the next man up will be Dontayvion Wicks, whose price on DraftKings is a mere $4,500. Tucker Kraft also gets an arrow up with the Watson injury.

Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, DeVonta Smith, AJ Brown, Dallas Goedert, Dontayvion Wicks, Tucker Kraft, Eagles DST

Commanders @ Bucs (-3) (U/O 50.5)

Here we land in the highest total of the weekend as the sixth-seeded Commanders go head-to-head with the third-seeded Bucs in sunny Florida. It will be a popular game, especially for DFS as we’ll see some players with reasonable salaries set to be in some smash-spots fantasy-wise. Vegas also sees it as a close game with only the standard 3-point spread so yes stack this game if you like, even in a Sat-Mon contest.

Jayden Daniels of the Commanders delivers for DFS from week to week, when will he come down to earth? I don’t see that happening until next season, since this Bucs’ defense has been walked all over. The second overall pick in this year’s draft will feast on a Tampa secondary ranked 29th in the league in passing yardage. His legs are his most dangerous weapons, racking up close to 900 yards with six rushing scores. Pair him with McLaurin or Olamide Zaccheaus, who has crushed his value in recent weeks posting 24 and 23.3 fantasy points. Even more value lies in the Washington offense with Zach Ertz and Austin Ekeler, both in the $4K range on DraftKings and perfectly fine in this game environment.

As much as I love Daniels in this spot, I love Mayfield just as much. He’s $700 cheaper than Daniels and because of the Bucs’ defense, he’ll be forced to carry the load once again. Now we all know Mike Evans has been his go-to guy, but he’ll face his arch nemesis at cornerback Marshon Lattimore for another tough battle. Evans has struggled over the years against Lattimore, catching for only a total of 40 yards with three catches in two separate games. Taking on Jalen McMillan or Cade Otton at a discount may be the safer way to stack Baker, but I will never tell you to not take a shot on the future Hall of Famer Mike Evans. Both backs are useful in Tampa with Rachaad White and Bucky Irving, though the latter has taken over the backfield and would consider paying up for Irving who has seen a bigger role here in January (72% of the snaps in Week 18)

GPP: Jayden Daniels, Baker Mayfield, Terry McLaurin, Mike Evans, Olamide Zaccheaus, Jalen McMillan, Cade Otton, Zach Ertz, Austin Ekeler, Bucky Irving.

Monday Night 1/13/25

Vikings @ Rams (+1.5) (U/O 46.5)

Finally, to wrap up the Playoffs Weekend we get the Rams hosting the Vikings on Monday Night. Whether you’re playing a Showdown or a Multi-Day Tournament, you’ll want to find pieces of this game in your lineups. LA’s game will be played in Arizona because of the tragic fires, which may hype the Rams up or drag them down because of the recent events. The Vikings are coming off a disappointing loss to Detroit last Sunday Night and will be looking for a get-right spot in the postseason.

The Rams will be ready and rested after sitting out their main players in Week 18 to prepare for the playoffs. Hopefully, Matt Stafford can get back on track with a solid outing after being in a slump since Week 16. He hasn’t thrown a touchdown pass or passed for over 200 yards in his last three games, so wake up Matt. When he does complete passes, it’s been all Puca Nacua or dump-offs to Kyren Willams in the backfield, while Cooper Kupp has disappeared from the scheme. Until we see some light from Stafford, stick with Williams and Nacua in your mullti-slate lineups while in Showdowns prioritize Nacua against the 32nd in DVOA to opposing receivers in your Captain/MVP slot.

Sam Darnold caught a few lumps in the big Sunday Night closer in Detroit, which led the Vikings to become a road team possibly throughout their postseason. But that was one game, and let’s give credit where it is due. Minnesota is a great football team that has won 14 games, and they will show us why on Monday night. The weapons are all on hand for Darnold, which rejuvenated his career. Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, TJ Hockenson, and Aaron Jones are all able to make their marks in the postseason, especially against a Rams team that may be mentally exhausted from the fires in California

GPP: Puca Nacua, Kyren Williams, Cooper Kupp, Aaron Jones, Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, TJ Hockenson, Matt Stafford

Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game-by-Game Breakdown for the Wild Card Weekend! Remember to check back daily for more updates and content until kickoff. You can reach me on X @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord, tag me @DiCarlo78, for any lineup build opinions or questions. I’m always here to help! Gain access to our projection models and jump into our Discord, where our experts and I will talk about plays across every sport 24/7/365!

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