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NFL Bets & Survivor Pool Picks for 2024 Week Twelve

Dave Gloeckner 6 months ago

written by Dave Gloeckner

Another week with high hopes went south as we went just 2-2 overall. But we once again hit on our Prime-Time games with winners on MNF with the Texans and on TNF with the Jameis Winston led Cleveland Browns. The public had a solid week, winning over 50% of the games. But I still see opportunities this week to fade the general consensus, as witnessed with the Browns on Thursday.

As for Survivor, we are still cooking in the main contest as a Detroit victory was sealed by the end of the 1st Q. This week brings a few options to use unpopular teams and we’re going to have to roll the dice as the pool of available teams is getting thinner by the week.

NFL BETS WEEK 12 (2024 SEASON RECORD: 24-27-1)

CHICAGO BEARS +3.5 vs MINNESOTA VIKINGS

We’re going back to the Bears this week as they paid us off last week with a cover against their hated rivals in the Packers. I’m still not a believer of Sam Darnold and think this Bears D can present some real problems for him. The Vikings typically play the Bears well, as they have won five of the last six contests. However, the Bears won the last game they played, stunning the Vikings and creating 4 turnovers along the way. The Vikings come into this game with the 5th most turnovers in the league at 17. On the other side, the Bears have created 17 turnovers and are third best in the league with a +9 differential. I believe in a modified offensive game, the Bears will win the TO battle and come out with a rare victory against their rivals from the north.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS +7.5 vs DETROIT LIONS

Another thrashing by the Lions as they pummeled the Jaguars 52-6 last week and outgained them by almost 500 yards. The Lions have done this before, and in the following week had tough games. In Week 6 they beat Dallas by 38 only to squeak out a win in Week 7 over Minnesota by 2 points. They are clearly the betting public’s favorite team right now which makes this spot dangerous. Detroit is seeing 82% of the bets on the spread and 72% of the money.

TAMPA BAY BUCANNEERS -5.5 at NEW YORK GIANTS

The Giants are one of the most poorly managed franchisees in all of sports. The fact that they cut QB Daniel Jones is crazy. But then they simply skipped over their #2 QB in Drew Lock and handed the ball to a manufactured gimmick in Tommy Devito is more crazy. I’m banking on the Bucs rest combined with the Giants situation to be keys to fuel Tampa to victory. The addition of Mike Evans is also a key component to this game as the Giants rank 24th against the pass according to DVOA.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS +1.5 vs ARIZONA CARDINALS

I’m not sure if the Seahawks are back. But they did display grit and determination last week in their comeback win against the 49ers. The interesting point is this was coming off the bye week where they had some interesting moves, including a sudden retirement of their starting center, Connor Williams, at the young age of 27. What it told me is that rookie HC Mike MacDonald took a global view of this team and instituted major changes. And the biggest move was their philosophy change in the passing game. Seattle led the league in pass ratio prior to the bye but came out of Week 11 with a 58% rate. They were at 66% for the season coming into that game. This is a key in handicapping this game as Arizona allows 127.5 rushing yards per game, 13th highest in the NFL.

BONUS DISCORD BET (Posted by 12pm on Sunday): TBD

SURVIVOR PICK

WASHINGTON COMMANDERS

Jayden Daniels hasn’t looked great of late, but he hasn’t played for 10 days so I expect to see the best version of him. And has anyone seen the Cowboys play of late? They can’t stay within 20 points of teams.

Now that you finished reading the NFL BETS & SURVIVOR POOL PICKS article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

6 months ago 0 comments

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NFL Game-by-Game Breakdown for Week 12

Joe DiCarlo 6 months ago

written by Joe DiCarlo

We are back here in Week 12 of the 2024 NFL Season to break down another fine Sunday Main Slate of action. There are only ten games this weekend, but there is still plenty to get through. Congrats to anyone who stacked the Lions in their lineups last weekend. I was all over that matchup in my write-up, along with Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill. Let’s get back to the grind as there’s still plenty more money to make in DFS.

Stay tuned for all our injury news, updates, and Discord-building advice. Also, check out our Optimizer and Projection Models to get the best possible performance from your lineups. Also, check back into the article during the week as we approach kickoff for more content, as more game breakdowns will be available as we approach the Sunday Slate.

Sunday Main Slate 11/24/24

Chiefs @ Panthers (+10.5) (O/U 41.5)

Kansas City hits the road again after taking one on the chin in Buffalo ending their undefeated season. They’ll hit the turf in Carolina to face a Panthers team fresh off a bye, sitting as huge underdogs at home. They’ll be hosting one of the top defenses in the league of Kansas City, hopefully, the Panthers took plenty of practice reps over their break.

Last week’s primetime event loss in Buffalo could still be burning inside of Kansas City, as they watched Josh Allen run the ball for thirty yards into the endzone to seal their fate. The Panthers may end up being a punching bag for Pat Mahomes and company to let out some frustration, as the matchup is salivating. The Panthers are currently ranked dead last in points allowed and rushing defense. Mahomes and his passing targets will be a full go, but we must wait and see if Isiah Pacheco will return from IR or if Kareem Hunt will get another full workload at running back.

The Panthers looked awesome two weeks ago in Germany, pulling off the win against the Giants. But they may be heading into a brick wall come Sunday against the Steve Spagnuolo Chiefs defense. Kansas City allows only 19 points per game, with the number-one-ranked run defense that could keep Chuba Hubbard in a vise (85 YPG allowed). There’s no time to get cute this week by taking on the Panthers in your DFS lineups.

Cash: Pat Mahomes, Travis Kelce

GPP: DeAndre Hopkins, KareemHunt/Isiah Pacheco (watch for injury reports)

Bucs @ Giants (+5) (O/U 42)

Big Blue is back home from Germany and a bye to host Tampa Bay, another team that should be rested from a week off. Both clubs will look to get right and back in the win column after suffering some tough losses. New York is clearly out of the playoff race while Tampa is desperately trying to stay in the hunt, It is a game that holds water on both sides, and here’s why.

Head coach Brian Dabol has benched Daniel Jones this week and named Tommy “Cutlets” DeVito as the starter, not Drew Lock. The move raised a lot of eyebrows in the Tri-State Area as Lock is the clear front-runner for the job. Is it a publicity stunt, or a way to cheat Lock out of incentives? Either way, Dabol is coaching to keep his job so it’s Cutlets’ time to shine. The Bucs offer a great way for DeVito to start his 2024 season, as they allow the third-most passing yards and touchdowns in the league. DeVito, Nabers, Wan’Dale Robinson, and Tyrone Tracy are all GPP-worthy this weekend.

The Bucs sit in the cat-bird seat finally after four straight tough matchups that cost them the lead in the division. New York ranks fourth in pass defense, but I would not be afraid of that stat since opposing teams have averaged close to 150 yards per game on the ground. Salaries have dropped on DraftKings for Bucky Irving and Rachaad White, so pick your poison and take advantage of the discount at running back. The backbone of the passing volume will flow through Cade Otton, who has dominated the tight end position with double-digit targets in four of his last five games, 30 catches, and three scores. And finally, if you like to follow revenge narratives as I do, Sterling Shepard returns to MetLife Stadium for the first time. If Mike Evans takes another week off to heal, Shepard could also see a number of extra passes from Mayfield.

Cash: Cade Otton, Malik Nabers

GPP: Tyrone Tracy, Rachaad White, Bucky Irving, Mike Evans (if healthy), Baker Mayfield, Tommy DeVito, Wan’Dale Robinson, Bucs DST

Update: Daniel Jones was released by the Giants

Lions @ Colts (+7.5) (O/U 50.5)

Detroit has been a runaway freight train, steamrolling its competition, and will look to keep its momentum going on the road in Indianapolis. Detroit showed no mercy to Jacksonville, holding them to only six points while they threw up 52. But the Colts may have some momentum coming into this game after beating the Jets on the road with the reinstated Anthony Richardson at quarterback.

Arguably one of the league’s top offenses, The Lions should have no problem scoring again this weekend. They’re currently ranked number two in rushing touchdowns and number four in passing, so if you can afford their salaries sprinkle some in your DFS lineups in cash or GPPs. Jared Goff is coming off his best performance of the season, throwing for 412 yards and four touchdowns, and is worthy of another start against a Colts defense that allows the sixth-most passing yards in the league.

Colts QB Anthony Richardson showed us some flashes of brilliance on the field against the Jets last week. He completed 67% of his passes, throwing for one touchdown and rushing for two. But he’ll be a risky play for DFS once again facing a Detroit team that has shut down opposing offenses by running up the score and forcing their opponents to throw into a secondary that leads the league in interceptions with 14. They’ve also only allowed seven passing scores all year, so Josh Downs, Michael Pittman Jr., and Alec Pierce should remain in tournaments with Richardson.

Cash: Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, David Montgomery

GPP: Jared Goff, Jameson Williams, Anthony Richardson, Sam LaPorta (if healthy), Josh Downs, Michael Pittman, Jonathon Taylor

Patriots @ Dolphins (-7) (U/O 46)

The Dolphins racked up their second win in a row and will host their division rival New England Patriots in sunny Miami, Florida. The Patriots continue to play through some growing pains, suffering their eighth loss of the year to the Rams. This game offers some opportunity for value at every position with a decent total in a warm weather environment. Let’s check it out.

New England’s secondary has been target practice for quarterbacks all year, allowing 16 touchdowns to just four interceptions, with four to Matt Stafford last weekend. Add the fact they allow close to 130 yards per game to running backs and you have a great matchup for the Fins at home. Tight end Jonnu Smith has emerged as a reliable passing commodity for Tua, catching six for 101 yards and two touchdowns against Vegas. He’s another great start at $4,100 on DraftKings this week.

It was a steep hill to climb to keep up with Matt Stafford for Drake Maye last week, and it may be a repeat this week against Miami. Rhamondre Stevenson is still a solid DFS running back with 20 carries per week, but Maye’s receiver core should also be considered for a few punt options on the slate. DeMario Douglas, Kendrick Bourne, and Kayshon Boutte are all worth a shot at their low prices connected to Drake Maye, who has had over 40 passing attempts in two of his last three games.

Cash: De’Von Achane, Jonnu Smith

GPP: Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Tua Tagovailoa, Drake Maye, Rhamondre Stevenson, DeMario Douglas, Kendrick Bourne, Kayshon Boutte

Vikings @ Bears (+3.5) (O/U 39.5)

The 8-2 Vikings, winners of three straight games will fly into the windy city of Chicago to battle the Bears. Chicago is up to their old tricks, losers of four straight games after starting out the year at 4-2. They’ll again try to pick up the pieces at home against division rival Minnesota, but it will not be an easy task that’s for sure. It’s a total of under forty featuring two solid defenses, a stat that we frown upon for DFS.

Chicago has been a burden on opposing quarterback play this season, tying for first defensively in touchdown passes allowed at seven thanks to guys like Kevin Byard and Tyrique Stevenson roaming around the secondary. But they’ve shown some weakness in the trenches as they allow an average of 130 yards rushing per game. This is great news for Aaron Jones, who has been quiet lately and is due a decent matchup. Start him up in GPPs along with Justin Jefferson, whose talent is un fadeable.

It’s been a murky month of football for Chicago, and it doesn’t seem the sun will be coming out anytime soon this weekend. Minnesota is ranked number one defensively in points allowed and rushing yards, holding backs to a measly 3.6 yards per carry. The Vikes also lead the league in picks with 16 on the season, so it’s best to stay away from any part of the Caleb Williams slumping Bears. The Minnesota defense may be the better choice in this matchup.

Cash: Justin Jefferson

GPP: Aaron Jones, Vikings DST

Titans @ Texans (-8) (O/U 42)

Houston will welcome the Titans as eight-point favorites in a low total contest and aim to keep themselves on top of their division. Tennessee remains at the bottom of the AFC South and continues to look forward to a high draft position for next season. Both teams are very familiar with each other in this divisional match.

The Texans manhandled the Cowboys in front of their own crowd on Monday Night, exposing their weakness at quarterback. Expect the same dosage of pressure on the inexperienced Will Levis. He’ll need to get the ball out quickly to Calvin Ridley, who leads the league in deep targets (21) and has a great matchup across from Derek Stingley who allows close to 12 yards per reception. Ridley is affordable on DraftKings ($5,700) and a sneaky DFS receiver if he plays (illness). Tyler Boyd and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine are other cheap Titans to draft as the team may be trailing in the second half.

The Texans have been riding the hot hand to victories, and that hand is Joe Mixon. The seventh-year back out of Oklahoma is second in the league in touchdowns with 11 and leads the league in yards per reception at running back and red zone carries. If you can afford him, he will get you value as he also leads the league in fantasy points per game (22.6). The Texans’ other elite talent is Nico Collins. He was quiet in his return from IR in Dallas, but expect him to get ramped up this week in a cupcake matchup against a Titans’ secondary that will be stacking the box to stop Mixon.

Cash: Joe Mixon

GPP: Calvin Ridley, Nico Collins, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Tyler Boyd, Texans DST, Tony Pollard

Update: Tyjae Spears is out, Pollard will get all the work

Cowboys @ Commanders (-10.5) (O/U 45.5)

Dallas will try to pick up the pieces after losing Monday Night and hit the road to face division rival Washington. The Cowboys gave it their all against Houston at home, but it wasn’t enough to stop the Texans and Joe Mixon. Meanwhile, the Commanders are in a great spot to gain some ground with the first-place Eagles by securing a win at home as 10.5-point favorites.

Cooper Rush will once again lead the Cowboys onto NorthWest Stadium in DC, but he’ll face a much stingier passing defense developed by head coach Dan Quinn, who was the Cowboys’ defensive coordinator last season. Rush threw it 55 times Monday Night with only one touchdown and one pick, but this offense as a whole is in shambles. The Commanders’ defense is the only trustworthy DFS move when Dallas has the ball as of now. Keep a close eye on tight end Jake Ferguson’s status. If he doesn’t clear protocols, backup tight end Luke Schoonmaker is a clear value play this week. He saw ten targets filling in for Ferguson, catching six of them for 56 yards, making him a lock for cash/GPP formats.

The Dallas defense has failed the team since Week One. They’ve fallen dead last in points allowed, mainly because they have been unable to stop the run all season. They’ve ranked last in touchdowns and yards allowed to opposing running backs. Brian Robinson Jr. and Austin Ekeler should stride with ease this week as they utilize their stout offensive line. Their large chunks of yardage should also open up passing lanes for Terry McLaurin, Zach Ertz, and Noah Brown for Jayden Daniels. It’s wheels up for any Commanders in your lineups on Sunday.

Cash: Brian Robinson, Jayden Daniels, Terry McLaurin, Luke Schoonmaker (if Ferguson is out)

GPP: Austin Ekeler, Noah Brown, Washington DST

Update: Ferguson is out…take the free space at tight end with Schoonmaker

Broncos @ Raiders (+5.5) (O/U 41)

The bucking Broncos will gallop into Vegas to kick off the late afternoon slate and look to take advantage of a 29th-ranked Raiders’ defense. Vegas, with a record of 2-8, is well on its way to the top of the draft board in 2025. It’s a decent spread with a total that is a little underwhelming, but a couple of players in this game will be essential this week for DFS.

Denver’s 2024 number-one pick is panning out to become rookie of the year with his play and leadership this season. Sitting with a respectable 6-5 record, Nix has averaged an amazing 70% on completions and is not gun-shy at all, leading the league in deep ball attempts with 48. He’s also fifth in the league in carries and rushing touchdowns. With only 20 quarterbacks to roll with on the slate this week, he makes my top three, Get Nix in nude in your lineups, or if you are feeling frisky stack him with any running back or wide receiver(s) in GPPs only.

With all the drama this year for Vegas, there has been one glimmer of light, and his name is Brock Bowers. The rookie is matchup and quarterback-proof. In his ten professional games, he’s averaged over 10 yards per catch, saw 89 targets, and caught 70 for 706 yards. Other than the Broncos’ defense, which is priced up, Bowers is the only safe play in Vegas for DFS, although pay close attention to the Raiders’ running back room on the injury reports. If Alexander Mattison and Zamir White sit out, Ameer Abdullah at $4,300 on DraftKings will be a super-saver at running back on the slate.

Cash: Bo Nix, Brock Bowers

GPP: Javonte Williams, Courtland Sutton, Broncos DST, Audric Estime`, Ameer Abdullah (if Mattison and White are out)

Update: Mattison and White are doubtful… Ameer Abdullah and Derek Laube are more valuable at running back

Niners @ Packers (-2.5) (O/U 48)

The Niners hit the road and will try to bounce back from a devastating loss by Seattle. The Packers will welcome them to Lambeau Field in hopes of keeping their win streak alive and in contention for the NFC North title. Temperatures are beginning to drop in Wisconsin, but not enough to affect the sweet total of 48, let’s see who’s available for DFS.

Brock Purdy has been ranked QB 6 coming into this weekend, but he is also pretty banged up with a shoulder injury. Head coach Kyle Shannahan is “hopeful” that he will play, so pay close attention to his status on Sunday. Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and Jauan Jennings’ fate will all rest in the hands of the astronaut Josh Dobbs if Purdy is not available this week, so they will all be risky players if that plays out.

The Packers escaped Soldier Field by the skin of their helmets with a win, now back at home they’ll have some time to regroup. Jordan Love reclaimed his value at 20-plus fantasy points, as well as Josh Jacobs with 23 FPTS. against Chicago. Both are the only safe and predictable plays once again this week, as the receiving core remains a crap shoot on who will feast week in and out for touchdowns and volume. The Niners have the firepower to put up a fight, so Love should be on his toes to answer back.

Cash: Christian McCaffrey, Josh Jacobs, George Kittle

GPP: Jordan Love, Brock Purdy (if healthy), Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, Deebo Samuel, Jauan Jennings, Christian Watson, Tucker Kraft

Update: Brock Purdy is Out…Brandon Allen or Packers DST, just go with your gut

Cardinals @ Seahawks (-1) (O/U 47.5)

We have an NFC West matchup to wrap up the slate, and it’s an enticing 47.5 total as the Cardinals head into Seattle for a potential rain game. There’s some potential for both teams to go score for score given the one-point spread and familiarity between them. But let’s keep an eye on the forecast, if it downpours we may need to steer elsewhere on the slate.

Rain or shine, the matchup is sweet for Kyler Murray and James Conner’s footwork. Murray snuck in two touchdowns against the Jets, and Conner has not scored less than 14 FPTS in nearly six weeks. Seattle continues to struggle to defend the run, as they’ve allowed close to 140 yards per game. The dual-threat will open lanes for Trey McBride, Marvin Harrison Jr., and Michael Wilson if the weather cooperates.

The Seahawks are flying high after their upset win in the Bay Area against the Forty Niners. All thanks to Geno Smith’s rushing touchdown in the final minute, but he’ll need some more magic against the first-place Cardinals. Smith’s accuracy of 74% has been crucial, so long as it stays weather-friendly Jaxson Smith-Njigba and DK Metcalf will again be his top targets. DK’s mid-$6K range on DraftKings is very tasty, especially against an Arizona defense that will send Sean Murphy-Bunting on him (8.7 Yards per Target allowed). Kenneth Walker as usual gets respect for DFS as he can explode in any given game script, and at $7K on DraftKings, he could be very under-owned because of the tremendous value at the position this week.

Cash: Kyler Murray, James Conner, DK Metcalf

GPP: Geno Smith, Jaxson Smith-Njigba, Kenneth Walker, Trey McBride, Marvin Harrison Jr,

Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game-by-Game Breakdown for Week 12! Remember to check back daily for more updates and content until kickoff. You can reach me on X @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord, tag me @DiCarlo78, for any lineup build opinions or questions. I’m always here to help! Gain access to our projection models and jump into our Discord, where our experts and I will talk about plays across every sport 24/7/365!

6 months ago 0 comments

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MONDAY NIGHT SHOWDOWN STRATEGY: HOUSTON TEXANS at DALLAS COWBOYS

Dave Gloeckner 6 months ago

written by Dave Gloeckner

Week 11 of the NFL season wraps up tonight with Monday Night Football. We have a battle of Texas as the Cowboys and Texans square off in Big D. As for Win Daily, we’ve had multiple takedowns in the one-game slates, i.e. Showdowns, this year. How many other sites can say that? It’s just proof that the work you put in will produce results! So, let’s keep the hot streak going as we have a good one tonight in a battle between Houston and Dallas. Below is my top DFS showdown picks and strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, helping you build winning lineups.

A note about tonight’s game is that we have a rather high point spread and low game total; Houston -7 and 41. This brings into play both kickers and a defense. It also may put stronger emphasis on TD scorers vice high volume cacthers.

For a deeper dive into general showdown rules, make sure to check out David Jones’s “Daily Fantasy Football Showdown: Strategy for Building Winning Lineups” article. It’s essential reading for anyone crafting MME lineups, as player salary and team dynamics can impact each game’s approach.

Link: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/

Note on Quarterbacks:

I will not write up the quarterbacks because the wide receiver and tight end section tend to cover the matchups. The QB rankings are at the bottom of the article.

HOUSTON TEXANS

Running Back

The Texans average 119.4 yards/game on the ground, which is good 14th best in football. Conversely, they are just 23rd in run blocking grading and 24th in rush offense DVOA. So even though the yards are decent, they aren’t a very productive running team. But the good news is, they get a chance to improve those numbers tonight as they face the 27th rated rush defense according to DVOA. In fact, the Cowboys allow the 2nd most rushing yards per game at 152.1 and the 2nd most fantasy points to running backs.

So that means we are in full Joe Mixon mode tonight. He’s got the best possible matchup an RB could have besides facing the Carolina Panthers. And while Micah Parsons did return last week, the Boys still got pummeled on the ground allowing 187 rushing yards to the Eagles (130 of that to RB’s). As for Mixon, he received 76% of the snaps last week and 27 of the 28 touches to RB’s. The latter was the second highest for any RB in Week 10. He’s clearly the workhorse and will see the lion’s share of touches tonight.

RB Dameon Pierce returns for the Texans tonight. He’s been out the last two weeks with a groin injury. But in the three weeks he’s suited up to backup Mixon, he’s received just 6 carries total. So I don’t deem him as a threat to stealing away touches from Mixon and I will not consider him in my lineups bases on other value we can find.

Tier 1: Joe Mixon

Tier 2: N/A

Punt: Dameon Pierce

Wide Receiver

The big news for the Texans tonight is the return of WR Nico Collins. Their star WR has been out since week 5 with a hamstring injury. He was activated last week but sat out for precautionary reasons. Reports out of Houston are saying he’s fully healthy and should have no restrictions on routes. On the year, Nico is averaging 23.1 fantasy points, which puts him 2nd in the NFL behind only Ja’Marr Chase. So he’s obviously a targeted player for us.

Tank Dell has 15 catches in the past 3 weeks. He’s clearly the #2 in Houston and could have a big game depending how Dallas decides to cover Nico.

John Metchie was the big winner of the secondary Texans WR”s as he racked up 6 targets in Week 10, en route to 5 catches for 74 yards and a TD.

Xavier Hutchinson will likely fall back to 4th WR duty. He will only provide value if he gets in the endzone as his snap count is projected under 30%.

Tier 1: Nico Collins

Tier 2: Tank Dell, John Metchie

Punts: Xavier Hutchinson

Tight End

The TE position has been a mysterious void for the Texans this year. Dalton Schultz has just 29 receptions and 310 yards in 10 games. And he’s yet to find the endzone. The Cowboys have defended TE’s quite well, allowing the 7th least receiving yards to that position. If they’ve had any issues, it’s the endzone as they’ve allowed 4 TD’s to TE’s (T-8th most). But as we see with Schultz’s stats, the Texans don’t look to the TE’s in the redzone much.

If anything, Cade Stover could be an under the radar look this week. He did get one target in the redzone last

Tier 1: Dalton Schultz

Tier 2:

Punt/Fadeable: Cade Stover

DALLAS COWBOYS

Running Back

The Cowboys really screwed up when they didn’t go after an RB in the offseason. But after their recent embarrassing loss, and their loss of QB Dak Prescott, makes me fully believe they’ll commit to the run tonight. However, the issue is the Houston Texans are 2nd in DVOA against the run. I do think Rico Dowdle will get the majority of the carries but he’s got a very tough matchup so don’t go heavy on him.

Tier 1: Rico Dowdle

Tier 2: Ezekiel Elliott

Wide Receiver

Houston has the 2nd best defense overall. Which leads to them having the 4th best pass defense DVOA. But, they do allow yards and TD’s to WR’s making them 22nd against receivers for fantasy points. This leads to a very tough matchup for Dallas receivers. But not just because of the Texans pass D, but because Cooper Rush is trash. He threw for just 40 yards last week against the Eagles.

I do think Cee Dee Lamb is going to bounce back tonight. He can be moved around and match up against the weakest corner. Plus the Texans play zone a ton which can allow Lamb to find the soft spots.

As for the secondary receivers, the Cowboys paid a price for Mingo and he will see more snaps tonight. So I’ve moved him up into Tier 2.

Tier 1: CeeDee Lamb

Tier 2: Jalen Tolbert, Jonathan Mingo

Cheap Options: Jalen Brooks, Kevontae Turpin,

Tight End

My favorite Cowboys receiver tonight is Jake Ferguson. The Texans give up the 3rd least points to TE’s. But a tight end can be the short passer (Cooper Rush) friend.

Tier 1: Jake Ferguson

Tier 2:

FanDuel MVP and DraftKings CPT Picks—FNF Showdown

I want a high-usage player at MVP on FanDuel like Joe Mixon and CeeDee Lamb. They also have the TD equity and big play potential compared to their peers which is important on FanDuel. The WR corps seem to be the best area to get our value and win the slate. Remember, you need the highest-scoring player, not the best value. The salaries do not change from flex to MVP on FanDuel, so the value at the MVP is not a priority. Take the points up top.

On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range. And in this case, that looks to be on the high price range side. My favorite is Joe Mixon, Nico Collins, CeeDee Lamb and Jake Ferguson.

FanDuel

FanDuel MVP Tier 1: Joe Mixon, CeeDee Lamb

FDMVP Tier 2: Nico Collins, CJ Stroud

FDMVP Tier 3: Cooper Rush, Rico Dowdel, Jake Ferguson

DraftKings

DraftKings CPT Tier 1: Joe Mixon, CJ Stroud, CeeDee Lamb

DK CPT Tier 2: Nico Collins, Tank Dell, Jake Ferguson

DK CPT Tier 3: Tank Dell, Rico Dowdel, TEXANS D

DK CPT Punt: Cooper Rush

Best Rules for the slate:

The story of this slate is that we have to dial in on a Texans star for CPT. Yes, the Cowboys could produce one but I’m more focused on choosing between Mixon, Stroud, Collins and Texans D.
Cooper Rush could be a sneaky play. He was terrible against the Eagles but was 5-1 in his previous 6 starts.
Joe Mixon is easily my favorite CPT. He has a GREAT matchup.
I have a feeling this could be a Cee Dee Lamb game.
I like Jake Ferguson as my safest option for the Cowboys receiving game.
I’m fading the Cowboys run game for the most part.
If you play a 4/2 or 5/1 stack, consider a kicker.
Consider playing the Texans D on your slate tonight.
Remember, this is close to a playoff game for the Cowboys. I think it’ll be low scoring but they will hang tight. That opens you up to playing both kickers.

Favorite prop for the game:

Now that you finished reading the MONDAY NIGHT SHOWDOWN article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

6 months ago 0 comments

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Sunday’s Best NFL DFS Core Plays: GPP Building Blocks – Week 11

David Jones 6 months ago

written by David Jones

Welcome to my NFL Daily Fantasy Sports guide for this Sunday’s games! In this article, I’ll walk you through my strategic approach for selecting top players and crafting optimal lineups to give you a winning edge in NFL DFS for 2024. I’ve thoroughly analyzed each game and position to highlight the best plays and explain the reasoning behind my selections.

*I’ll be updating this article on Sunday morning if there are any changes. Be sure to check back for the most current and accurate DFS plays.

Quarterback Rankings

Geno Smith
Jameis Winston
Jared Goff: Ranking the top three QB’s was difficult. Fine with any of them depending on your receiver builds.
Sam Darnold
Bo Nix
Drake Maye

Running Backs

Kareem Hunt

The Buffalo Bills give up the most fantasy points to running backs (30.3 per game) on the slate. They have been decent at stopping the run, allowing just the 15^th most rush yards per game (123 yards), which has improved over the last three games (100 yards per game). They have also only allowed five rushing TDs. The real damage comes in the passing game to running backs. They have been targeted a league-high 84 times (10 games), allowing also a league-high receptions (66) and receiving yards (545). They are also tied with the Titans for the most receiving TDs, allowing to backs (5). This lines up great for Kareem Hunt, who is a talented pass catcher, coming off a 10-target game, while the Chiefs lack reliable receivers in what has the potential to be a shootout. Hunt’s salary is still suppressed at $6,700; if he scores (which I think he does), you will have to have him.

De’Von Achane

He is most likely the first guy in your lineup. He is still way underpriced on DraftKings for his role as a lead back and top receiving target in the Dolphins offense. The matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders, who travel across the country to South Beach, is just too good to ignore. The Raiders are 29^th in DVOA against the run while giving up 26.7 fantasy points per game to the position.

Audric Estime

We saw Estime get the Lion’s share of the work against the Chiefs last game as the RB1. This came after the coaching staff said they were “going to give him a look”, in the press. This week Sean Payton was quoted saying “I was encouraged, He’ll continue to get more reps. While Joe Lombardi said, “If he keeps running the ball the way he did, It appears (he will continue to be the lead back)”. Estime is only $4,500 on DraftKings, so getting anything north of 10 carries would be a solid price tag for him. Atlanta has made some improvement stopping the run but is still ranked 19^th in DVOA against the run. They have only allowed two rushing TDs on the season, which I was surprised to see, however, I am still willing to take a shot in GPPS to see what Estime has in the tank.

Nick Chubb

You take a shot on Chubb at $6,000 as a buy-low opportunity going against the Saints that allows the most rushing TDs (12) on the slate. That’s all there is to it. He has not looked like his old self over the past three weeks so that certainly is concerning. However, against the Bengals, he was just being eased back in and his last two weeks against the Ravens and Chargers were no easy matchup. If you play Nick Chubb this week you are simply buying the dip here before he breaks out against a very beatable opponent in New Orleans.

Christian McCaffrey

He is my second preference behind De’Von Achane. If you can fit him, load him up.

Others to consider:

Jahmyr Gibbs
Alvin Kamara
Kenneth Walker
Rhamondre Stevenson
David Montgomery

Wide Receiver

Cedric Tillman

The volume for Tillman, at $5,300 on DraftKings is too hard to ignore. He is averaging 10 targets per game ever since Jameis Winston took over and draws a solid matchup against the Saints. New Orleans showed life last week against Atlanta, but that will be difficult to sustain with the loss of Marshon Lattimore. They allow the 7th most fantasy points to receivers on the year while being ranked 26th against the WR2. It is debatable if Tillman is the WR1 (who the Saints have played very well) or the WR2, but we have to remember this isn’t the same Saints secondary they had with Lattimore. Expect Jameis Winston to come out slinging in the Super Dome and for Tillman to be the key beneficiary.

George Pickens

The Ravens are the worst team in the league defending the wide receiver, particularly on deep passes. They give up 47 fantasy points per game to the position (which was inflated after last week’s massive showing by Ja’Marr Chase). They have allowed the most receiving TDs (16) and total receiving yards (1992), which is over 200 more than the next worst team (Lions). Pickens is going to be Russell Wilson’s first look, and although his price tag has gone up, he is still a solid click in your DFS lineups (maybe more so in cash than GPP)

Calvin Ridley

Don’t look now but Calvin Ridley is back. He is coming off a two-TD game against a very difficult Chargers secondary. With DeAndre Hopkins out of town, Will Levis has been fighting for his job just forcing his top receiving option to the football for three weeks straight. Ridley has put up double-digit points in the past three weeks, assisted by pure volume. The game script here calls for plenty of passing from the Titan’s offense. The Vikings have allowed a lot of receivers production (3^rd most fantasy points to the position) in similar game scripts particularly to start the season.

Jameson Williams

The Lions being without Sam LaPorta helps everyone on the offense. Williams finds himself in a particularly interesting spot being priced as a mid-tier receiver who moves all over the field in a very exploitable matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars. The trio of Tyson Campbell, Jarrian Jones, and Ronald Darby, have been one of the worst secondaries in the league and now face a top two-offense lead by Jared Goff back in the Dome in Detroit. You are getting a touchdown out of at least three Lions, and Williams is in as good of a spot (salary considered) as all of them.

Garrett Wilson

Nothing has changed for this Jets offense. They keep losing, but Aaron Rodgers is going to continue to force-feed his guys. Wilson draws the best primary matchup this week against Jaylon Jones, while Davante Adams is dealing with a wrist injury (although expected to play).

Jauan Jennings

He gets the majority of the slot routes for the 49ers. George Kittle is unlikely to play meaning Purdy should push it to Jennings, Pearsall, and Samuel at a slightly higher rate. Jennings’s salary is more palatable than the Deebo Samuels, giving him a slight edge over the other San Francisco pass catchers.

Additional Underpriced options:

Courtland Sutton
DeAndre Hopkins
Patriots receivers

Others to consider/mix in MME

Cooper Kupp: Christian Gonzalez should shadow Puka Nacua
Justin Jefferson
Zay Flowers
Tre Tucker

Tight End Rankings

Dawson Knox: Increased opportunity, low salary, facing the worst team in the league defending the tight end.
David Njoku
Mark Andrews
Taysom Hill
Hunter Henry
Davis Allen: Emerging TE1 for Matt Stafford at only $2,500

A lot of these injuries we will be discussing on the livestream tomorrow.

Again, I will update this article if anything changes. Be sure to come back and check for the most up-to-date plays.

6 months ago 0 comments

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NFL Bets & Survivor Pool Picks for 2024 Week Eleven

Dave Gloeckner 6 months ago

written by Dave Gloeckner

We’re on fire when it comes to Prime Time games, winning all 3 standalone games last weekend and then taking down last night’s game between the Commanders and Eagles. The problem is, I couldn’t come through on the Sunday day games and we’re still below 0.500. But the hot streak is coming and no better time than now. This weekend has so many huge games, with none bigger than Kansas City at Buffalo. So let’s enjoy the best weekend of the NFL season and make some money along the way.

As for Survivor, it’s been tough sledding but if you’re still alive there are picks to be made and potential to bring home a big payday. We did hit on our pick last week with the Chargers. We’re still alive and keep it rolling this week.

NFL BETS WEEK 11 (2024 SEASON RECORD: 21-24-1)

CLEVELAND BROWNS +1 at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

The symmetry in this game is mind boggling. Let start with the Browns and Jameis Winston. In his first start, just 3 weeks ago, the Browns upset the Ravens. They used the energy from the QB change to propel themselves to victory. Unfortunately, the energy dissipated in his second start and the Browns fell to the Chargers.

The Saints had maximum energy last week after a coaching change as interim HC Darren Rizzi won his first game in an upset of the Falcons last week. Everyone saw Rizzi’s energy, and the Saints were fueled by that. But here is game two under the new HC, and can they continue that high level of play. Or is a letdown inevitable, just like we saw with the Browns and Jameis in their 2nd game.

There’s also the motivation of Jameis Winston coming back to New Orleans to play a game. Winston played the last 4 years for the Saints and had some memorable moments. Additionally, the Browns are coming off a bye week and have had time to prepare for the Saints. For those reasons, and the expected letdown coming from NO following a great emotional victory, and I like the Browns to take home a W in a battle of last place teams in their respective divisions.

DENVER BRONCOS -1.5 vs ATLANTA FALCONS

The Broncos, like many other teams, had the Chiefs down and out. But somehow, the Chiefs won in miracle fashion, again, and sent the Broncos to their 5th defeat of the season. However, we need to take away from that game the competitiveness of the Broncos and how they are much closer to being a contender than being a pretender. Bo Nix has continued to improve, throwing for 5 TD’s and just 1 INT over the past four weeks.

On the other hand, Atlanta is a smoke and mirrors type team. Which is typical of Kirk Cousins past seasons. The Falcons lead the division at 6-4, but are just +2 in point differential. They are 5-2 in one score games this season and have been on the fortunate side of some good breaks. But as we saw in NO last week, those types of good breaks don’t last forever.

To me, Denver is the better team. And playing in the mile high altitude is difficult for opponents. Especially ones that hardly play in Denver like Atlanta. Give me the Broncos to pull off the win this week and stay closely packed in the AFC Wild Card race.

CHICAGO BEARS +6.5 vs GREEN BAY PACKERS

If this game was played 3 weeks ago, when the Bears were coming off three straight wins and sitting pretty at 4-2, this spread would have likely been in Chicago’s favor. However, the last three weeks did happen, and we know Chicago has looked dreadful of late which has resulted in them being a home dog of almost a touchdown to their divisional foes, the Green Bay Packers. The point here is similar to why we liked the Dolphins up in Buffalo two weeks ago, a 7-8 point shift in a line over 3 weeks seems like too much. There’s also some data showing sharp money coming in on the Bears which is pushing it down below 6 points in some markets.

In short, the Bears D has created 16 turnovers this season which is top 5 in the NFL. This is important because they’re facing a Packers team that has thrown 10 INT’s, which is tied for 4th most in the league. I expect the Bears D to be able to give the Packers trouble and keep their offense in the game. I also expect, the change at offensive coordinator will help the Bears have a more sophisticated passing game but also utilize the running game much more. Afterall, the Bears rank as the 13th best run blocking unit per PFF. The issue is, the Bears have the 8th highest pass rate at 63%.

TENNESSEE TITANS +6 vs MINNESOTA VIKINGS

The Vikings are sitting pretty at 7-2 and in 2nd place in the NFC North. But the football they’ve been playing of late isn’t very pretty. They are coming off an ugly 5-point victory in Jacksonville where they managed just 12 points on four FG’s. Before that, they barely squeaked by a Colts team led by Joe Flacco, who are spiraling downwards with three straight losses. And flip it one week before that where the Vikings lost by 10 to the Rams, who by the way looked abysmal this past Monday night.

They get an opportunity to get back on track today against another poor football team in the Tennessee Titans. But I see this as a spot as the Vikings are playing their 3rd road game in four weeks. And the Titans, at 2-7, will have to play this like a playoff game (or at least treat it like one) and I expect them to show some pride, similar to the Jags last week. Lastly, three of the four Titans home games have been one-score games. They play tough(er) at home and will have a shot against a Vikings team that has shown some signs of weakness of late.

BONUS DISCORD BET (Posted by 12pm on Sunday): New York Jets -4

SURVIVOR PICK

DETROIT LIONS

If you still have Detroit left, this is the perfect week to use them. Jacksonville is terrible. And Detroit just played their worst game of the season and still won. They’ll have motivation to clean it up this week and come home with a big W.

If you don’t have Detroit available, consider the Houston Texans.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

6 months ago 0 comments

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NFL Game-by-Game Breakdown for Week 11

Joe DiCarlo 6 months ago

written by Joe DiCarlo

Once again we are back for another ten-game slate to break down for Week 11. The season is just flying by us from week to week, and our DFS plays have been as close as you can call it. We’ll have you covered as always, so sit back and enjoy my takes on this Week 11 ten-game banger.

Sunday Main Slate 11/17/24

Vikings @ Titans (+6) (O/U 39.5)

We start the afternoon with the 7-2 Vikings on the road in Tennessee to face the last-place Titans of the AFC South. Every game is important for Minnesota to keep pace with Detroit and Green Bay in their division, while the Titans are playing for sole pride as they sit with a record of 2-7. It’s a touchdown spread with a total under 40, so don’t get your hopes up, everybody.

It was a busy day last week for the Vikes’ kicker Will Reichard, but a win is a win in the NFL with five field goals under his belt. It was a quiet afternoon for Justin Jefferson, Aaron Jones, and company last week against Jacksonville, so expect Sam Darnold to get back on track with the help of head coach Kevin O’Connell. Tennessee ranks number one in passing defense, allowing only 158 passing yards per game, so Minnesota may lean slightly run-heavy at the start of the game.

Quarterback Will Levis regained the start in Week 10 and looked a sight for sore eyes for Tennessee. He completed over 78% of his passes for 175 yards and two touchdowns, adding 41 yards rushing as well. Minnesota ranks 26th in passing DVOA, so the Titans will rally behind Levis’s arm one more time. Calvin Ridley has been a staple for target volume and has not seen less than eight looks since Week 4.

Cash: Justin Jefferson

GPP: Calvin Ridley, Aaron Jones, Will Levis, Vikings DST

Packers @ Bears (+6) (O/U 41)

Green Bay returns from their bye week to travel to Soldier Field and square off against a Bears’ offense that recently fired its OC Shane Waldron. Chicago’s offensive woes continued into Week 10 against a young New England defense, scoring just three points. Interm coach Thomas Brown will do his best to fix Caleb and the Bears this week in a pivotal NFC North matchup.

Jordan Love’s groin is hopefully back to 100 percent after a week off, he’ll need every ounce of his body against the Bears’ top pass coverage that has only allowed six touchdowns this season,1st in DVOA to quarterbacks. However, Green Bay has relied heavily on its running game featuring Josh Jacobs. His workload has been tremendous, ranking 7th in the league in carries with already 762 rushing yards this season, Jacobs faces a Bears’ defense that allows well over 130 yards per game. It’s a solid option for cash, while Jayden Reed and the Packers’ receiving core get GPP nominations just for being back alongside Love.

On the Chicago side of DFS, it will be safest to take the wait-and-see approach this week on how they will perform while using the Packers’ DST. But if you feel Chicago will come out swinging after the players rallied to get their play caller fired then by all means take your shot in DFS. There should be zero ownership across the board, and the prices have fallen salary-wise for Chicago at every skill position.

Cash: Josh Jacobs

GPP: Jordan Love, Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, Tucker Kraft, Cole Kmet, D’Andre Swift, Caleb Williams, Packers DST, DJ Moore

Ravens @ Steelers (+3) (O/U 48.5)

Baltimore returns to the Main Slate in an AFC North matchup against a newly refined offense of the Pittsburgh Steelers. Only one game separates the teams from first place in the division, so expect a significant amount of pressure on both teams this weekend. With the second-highest total on the slate, we should see plenty of the field flock over to this game, so let’s decide on who to pick up.

The Ravens’ 32nd-ranked secondary continues to produce QB1 stats to opposing quarterbacks from week to week. Joe Burrow put up two monster games this season, and Jameis Winston went back in time to 2018 and threw for over 330 yards. Russell Wilson and all of his passing weapons get massive approval for the slate in both cash and GPP formats. Although Baltimore has the number one-ranked rushing defense, Jaylen Warren gets an exception because of his pass-catching abilities out of the flat…see Chase Brown’s game log from last Thursday.

Baltimore will get a tough matchup on paper, but nobody in the league has had an answer to the combination of Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry. Pittsburgh ranks number two overall on defense, and fourth against the run, but this is a whole new animal they will be facing on Sunday. The Ravens are the number one ranked overall offense, and they have racked up over 1,800 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns between the duo. Add Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews to the mix regardless of the matchup as the playbook is wide-open in Baltimore. All are safe for cash games and GPP while Diontae Johnson, Justice Hill, and Rashod Bateman make sneaky punt plays to stack. Johnson’s revenge game narrative is in full effect!

Cash: Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, George Pickens, Russell Wilson

GPP: Zay Flowers, Mark Andrews, Mike Williams, Pat Freiermuth, Jaylen Warren, Najee Harris, Justice Hill, Diontae Johnson, Rashod Bateman

Rams @ Patriots (+4.5) (U/O 43.5)

LA goes back on the road after a tough loss at home to save face against the Patriots. They never reached the endzone against Miami, so expect the Rams to let out some frustration in Foxboro. The Patriots shocked the Sportsbooks last weekend in Chicago, beating the Bears 19-3. Has their defense turned the corner or were they the beneficiaries of a fired Tom Waldron playbook? This weekend will set the record straight.

Outside of last week’s lockdown of the Bears on defense, the Patriots spilled yardage to opposing offenses, an average of close to 350 per week, 130 of them to running backs. The touchdown streak is over for Kyren Williams who had a dismal performance against Miami. But that was due to game flow, expect LA to once again lean on their bell cow and tough defense on the rookie Drake Maye to get back in the win column. This will in effect open up routes for Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp. Take on the Rams for DFS in GPPs.

The rookie Drake Maye has steadily improved from week to week and led his team to victory in Chicago, but not without the running game. Rhamondre Stevenson continues to face stacked boxes when on the field, yet he averages 4.4 YPC. Drake Maye has also eluded the pass rush, tacking on 233 yards and a touchdown for the season. If you are in on the Pats the safest plays are Maye and Stevenson for some value and consistency in your lineups. Kayshon Boutte at receiver for $3,500 in New England has seen six targets in his last three games. Austin Hooper ($2,900) at tight end may see extra snaps with Huter Henry nursing a sore foot, both are solid punts.

Cash: None

GPP: Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua, Drake Maye, Rhamondre Stevenson, Cooper Kupp, Austin Hooper, Kayshon Boutte

Jaguars @ Lions (-13) (O/U 47)

The 8-1 Lions will look to clean up their execution after an ugly win against Houston. Jared Goff threw five picks, but he’s back home where it should be a walk in the park to a Jaguars team ready for the off-season. We may not want to go near any Jacksonville players at nearly a two-touchdown spread, especially for cash games. Let’s dive into this blowout game script, shall we?

The second-overall offense in football hosting the 29th-ranked defense in the league may get out of hand by halftime. Grab any share of Lions for DFS on the slate, as it may be a free-for-all for fantasy points at Ford Field. Even the defense gets a thumbs-up facing a Mac Jones-led football club. All are safe for cash/GPP contests, especially David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs who will be chewing up the clock in the second half if Detroit is up heavy.

Mac Jones looked good early on last week in his first start of 2024 running in a score in the first quarter, but that was it. Just 111 yards passing with two picks. He faced a harsh Minnesota defense, but Detroit’s will be no picnic either. It will be a full fade for me for Jacksonville until I see Trevor’s replacement puts it on paper.

Cash: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery

GPP: Jared Goff, Sam LaPorta, Lions DST

Update: Sam LaPorta is Out

Colts @ Jets (-4) (O/U 44)

These two teams in this game are just about mathematically out of the playoff race as the Colts take on the Jets on the East Coast. Both will be playing to save face as they have been underwhelming clubs, especially the Aaron Rodgers-manipulated Jets. I don’t expect the field to hover around this matchup, so for deep tournaments, it would be a great spot for some Jets and Colts players.

Sitting at 3-7 the Jets are toast this season, and as of now, their future is in limbo. But Aaron Rodgers at age 40 continues to love the spotlight on him, especially when facing weaker opponents. Indianapolis ranks in the league’s bottom tier defending both sides of the football, and Rodgers is licking his chops. He may have lost a few steps with age, but his weapons are crisp. Garrett Wilson, Breece Hall, and Davonte Adams are all GPP shots in lineups.

Indy appears to have thrown in the towel for 2024 as they revert back to Anthony Richardson to start at quarterback. The second-year signal-caller out of Florida was benched in Week 9 because of his inability to move the chains completing only 49% of his passes and turning over the football. We love the Jets’ DST at their price on DraftKings at $2,800 and should be used heavily in cash and GPP formats. For the Colts to have a shot in this game, it will rest on the back of Jonathan Taylor. The Jets have been gashed by opposing running backs, allowing over 130 yards per game with 14 touchdowns.

Cash: Breece Hall, Jets DST

GPP: Garrett Wilson, Davante Adams, Aaron Rodgers, Jonathan Taylor

Raiders @ Dolphins (-8) (O/U 44)

Vegas returns from their bye week and fly out to Miami to face off against the Dolphins. Both clubs are also on the outside looking into the playoff picture, and will most likely be playing for employment in 2025. Dolphins are big favorites, so let’s take a peek at who we can roster.

Vegas’defense has been a turnstile all year, and a cheat code for DFS players when they appear on the slate. They’ve allowed a total of 25 touchdowns, ten of them to the running back while also allowing 130 yards per game. De’Von Achane is a full go for cash and Tyreek Hill becomes a GPP play, we can’t fade the cheetah even though he has disappointed managers this season. His price has dropped to the low price of $7,300 on DraftKings and has one of his best matchups of 2024, a great spot to roll the dice on Hill.

The Raiders will roll out, and Gardner Minshew will come out of the bye to take back the quarterback position. Miami put Matt Staford and the Rams in a choke hold Monday night, keeping them out of the endzone the entire game. At only $3,000 on DraftKings, the Dolphins DST is a staple for cash and GPP tournaments against this depleted Raiders team on the road. Tight end Brock Bowers will see a ton of coverage as their only weapon on offense and will receive some consideration on the slate, as the position has been a dumpster fire for fantasy.

Cash: De’Von Achane, Miami DST

GPP: Brock Bowers, Tyreek Hill

Browns @ Saints (-1) (O/U 44.5)

Cleveland also returns from a week off and will visit New Orleans to battle the Saints in another game with little meaning other than tryouts for next season. Both clubs have seven losses in the year and one of them will have eight on Sunday Night. Although it’s a low total for the game, we have a narrow spread, which is interpreted to be a bit back and forth in the game flow. Let’s take a look.

Jameis Winston will return to The Big Easy in a Browns uniform for the first time facing his former squad. And what a matchup that will be waiting for him on the field. The Saints are in full tank mode as they are in the bottom five of teams to allow the most rushing and passing yardage in the league. A Browns’ stack of Jameis, Cedrick Tillman, and David Njoku is viable and affordable in GPPs this week, along with the newly reinstated Nick Chubb to the starting lineup at running back.

The Saints will have an uphill battle against a stingy Browns defense fresh off two weeks rest. Not to mention their starting offense is practically on IR except Alvin Kamara, who is way too pricey at $8,200 on DraftKings for me. MVS shocked the world after catching two touchdowns for 109 yards, but he is way too boom or bust even at only $4,400. The only DFS move that makes sense to me in this game is the Browns DST at $2,600, a cash game play in my opinion.

Cash: Browns DST, Cedrick Tillman

GPP: Nick Chubb, Jameis Winston, David Njoku

Seahawks @ Niners (-6.5) (O/U 49.5)

The later games kick off with an NFC West matchup as the Seahawks travel to the Bay Area to face the Niners. The division is up for grabs as all four teams are within one to two games out of first place. The 50-point total will draw the field for plenty of ownership on both sides, so saddle up while we weigh out our options for DFS.

The Niners bounced back last weekend with the return of Christian McCaffrey after missing the first ten weeks of the season, Now with one week under his belt expect them to turn up the volume on their Unicorn at running back. Seattle offers a wonderful matchup, allowing close to 140 yards per game, with 9 touchdowns scored by the position. Deebo Samuel, Brock Purdy, Jauan Jennings, and George Kittle if he plays, get the green light for cash and tournaments this week.

In their first meeting, San Fransisco easily took care of business back in Week 6, scoring 36 to Seattle’s 24. DK Metcalf and JSN were watched heavily in that game but allowed running back Kenneth Walker to feast, catching eight balls out of the flat for 37 yards and a score. Tyler Lockett and Noah Fant also had decent performances, back then, giving us the idea Kyle Shanahan may double down against the Seahawks by eliminating DK Meycslf and Jackson Smith Njigba. Also keep an eye on Fant’s status, if he’s out then A J Barner. Seattle players are all tournament plays this weekend..

Cash: Christian McCaffrey, Brock Purdy

GPP: Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, Jauan Jennings, Kenneth Walker, Noah Fant,

Falcons @ Broncos (-2.5) (O/U 44)

Atlanta will look to bounce back after an upset loss on the road to a depleted Saints roster. But they’ll be at Mile High Stadium to face a Broncos team that may still be salty after a blocked field goal crushed their dreams of beating the Chiefs. Both squads have plenty to play for so expect some tenacity on both sides of the field.

Denver showed some poise at Arrowhead Stadium, thanks to their defense and rookie Bo Nix’s calm and cool decision-making with the football. Atlanta has been generous to opposing offenses for the season (20th overall) but maybe even more so this weekend with both of their starting corners Mike Hughes and De Alford already ruled out. Bo Nix and Courtland Sutton have become a very sneaky pairing on the slate and are nice for leverage in tournaments.

Atlanta plays the fourth-ranked defense on the road. The defense allows only 3.9 yards per carry to opposing running backs and 5.3 yards per pass attempt. Bijan has become the engine of the Falcons’ offense but I will never say to fade him or play him in tourneys. Patrick Surtain will shadow Drake London, so we should stay away, this might be a Kyle Pitts week. Denver is 17th in DVOA to opposing tight ends, so I’d say he’s good to go if all the pressure leans to Bijan and London.

Cash: None

GPP: Bo Nix, Courtland Sutton, Bijan Robinson, Kyle Pitts

Chiefs @ Bills (-2.5) (U/O 46)

Welcome to the Main Event of Week 11, another Bills vs. Chiefs matchup that never gets old. Kansas City remains undefeated entering the weekend as Buffalo also stands tall in the AFC at 8-2. The total seems low this year, probably because that defense under Stevie Spags has just been suffocating. But the Bills’ high-octane third-ranked offense is nothing that the Chiefs have been exposed to yet in 2024. It will be the most popular game on the slate, so let’s dive in.

Buffalo had this game circled on their calendar all year, as Josh Allen has come up short in his last three postseason matchups with KC. But the Bills will be a little shorthanded on skill players come Sunday, as Dalton Kincaid will join Keon Coleman on the bench this week with a leg injury. Amari Cooper may also miss another week due to his wrist, so Buffalo will be rolling with replacements. Dawson Knox at $3,500 becomes a lock for cash and tournaments alongside Allen and James Cook. Khalil Shakir’s price has crept up to $6,300 on DK so I’m not sure to pay that high unless Cooper is out. Curtis Samuel and Mack Hollins would be the pay-down options at receiver in that scenario as well.

It’s nothing new for the world champs on offense this week, you should know who to target for DFS. No Pacheco again, so it will be another Kareem Hunt week at running back. Patrick Mahomes under $7K is very tasty for tournaments since nobody will be interested. And finally, Kelce and DeAndre Hopkins are all good to go to wrap up the breakdown with a bow. Justin Watson and Xavier Worthy see the field 75% of the game, so they also are great punts who will float under the radar in my opinion.

Cash: Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Travis Kelce, Dawson Knox

GPP: James Cook, Kareem Hunt, DeAndre Hopkins, Xavier Worthy, Khalil Shakir, Justin Watson, Amari Cooper (if healthy, otherwise go Mack Hollins and Curtis Samuel)

Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown for Week 11! Remember to check back daily for more updates and content up until kickoff. You can reach me on X @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me @DiCarlo78 for any lineup build opinions or questions, always here to help! Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts and myself talking plays across every sport 24/7/365!

6 months ago 0 comments

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MONDAY NIGHT SHOWDOWN STRATEGY: MIAMI DOLPHINS at LOS ANGELES RAMS

Dave Gloeckner 6 months ago

written by Dave Gloeckner

Week 10 of the NFL season wraps up tonight with Monday Night Football. We did it again last MNF as our “Presidente” took down a showdown. Showing the work you put in will produce results! So, let’s keep the hot streak going as we have a good one tonight in a battle between the Dolphins and Rams. Below is my top DFS showdown picks and strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, helping you build winning lineups.

Link: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/

Note on Quarterbacks:

I will not write up the quarterbacks because the wide receiver and tight end section tend to cover the matchups. The QB rankings are at the bottom of the article.

MIAMI DOLPHINS

Running Back

The Rams rush defense is towards the bottom half of the league in most metrics. According to DVOA they have the 22nd best rush defense. As for the results on the field, the Rams allow 135.1 yards/game on the ground which is 8th most. They allow the 14th most points to RB’s mainly due to the fact they’ve allowed 6 rushing TD’s.

The Dolphins backfield is always blurry due to the several mouths to feed. But De’Von Achane always rules the roost due to his explosive playmaking ability. Achane is averaging 4.5 yards per carry and has 37 receptions in 7 games. Good news is, the coaching staff is adjusting and getting the ball in his hands more. In Week 8, he had 58% of the snaps compared to 46% for Raheem Mostert. In week 9, Achane saw 69% of the snaps compared to 23% for Mostert. Some of that had to do with the game situation, but in all Achane is the clear #1 and deserves consideration for MVP and CPT tonight.

Rookie RB Jaylen Wright saw 6 carries last week. But the only way I see him paying off is if there is an injury to one of the top 2 ball carriers.

Tier 1: De’Von Achane

Tier 2: Raheem Mostert

Value: Jaylen Wright

Wide Receiver

The passing game is where you want to attack the Rams. While they have pedestrian stats against the run, their pass D is one of the worst in the league. Los Angeles allows the 6th most fantasy points to WR’s. They also allow 225 passing yards per game which is 8th worst in the league. According to DVOA, they have the 23rd best pass defense. Looking at their DB’s, PFF ranks DB Darious Williams as the 37th best cornerback and their other starting CB is Cobie Durant who is ranked 77th.

And who can forget some of the big games WR’s have had this year already against the Rams. Four receivers have posted 100-yard games, including last week’s 7 catch, 180-yard output by Jaxon Smith Ngigba.

If Hill bears through the pain and winds up playing, he has the best chance to be the 5th WR with a huge game against the Rams. Waddle is always WR2 and performs better with Tua at QB so he’s in play as a Flex spot. Beckham is a nice punt play as he’s going up against his former team which gives him some motivation to play well.

Tier 1: Tyreek Hill

Tier 2: Jaylen Waddle

Punts: Odell Beckham Jr

Tight End

As with the WR’s, the Rams struggle against TE’s too. They allow the 6th most fantasy points to this position. This includes monster games by Brock Bowers and Tucker Kraft.

Jonnu Smith is playing like WR2 for Miami as he’s 3rd on the team in receptions trailing just Tyreek Hill and De’Von Achane. His only issue is he’s found the endzone just once this season. If Hill is healthy, it will be tough for Smith to break the slate. But remember, it’s a showdown so all we need him to do is pop for more than other WR’s in the game. And that’s something that is highly possible based on the Rams coverage schemes.

Tier 1: Jonnu Smith

Tier 2: Durham Smythe

Punt/Fadeable:

LA RAMS

Running Back

It’s beautiful when you get a team and coach that believes in the workhorse running back. And that’s exactly what we have in LA with HC Sean McVay and his star RB Kyren Williams. Last week alone, Williams saw 99% of the snaps. That included 97% of the RB touches. This is clearly Williams backfield and that makes him my top player on the board tonight.

The other thing to consider is that Miami has struggled against the run this year. They are ranked 27th in rush defense DVOA and have allowed 120 yards/game on the ground. The Dolphins have also allowed the 9th most points to RB’s this season as they’ve allowed 10 rushing TD’s to RB’s, tied for 2nd most in the NFL.

Tier 1: Kyren Williams

Tier 2: Don’t waste your time

Wide Receiver

The Rams wide receiver room is finally healthy, and that’s probably the biggest reason for their recent good play as LA has won three straight. The problem is, it’s hard to predict who will be the big game beneficiary as the offense takes what the defense gives them. The other issue is that the Miami DB’s, Jalen Ramsey and Kendall Fuller, for one of the defensive duos in the league. PFF ranks Ramsey as the 2nd best CB this season and Fuller as the 23rd. Combined, along with their other DB’s, the Dolphins have allowed the 4th least points to WR’s. But DVOA isn’t as high on them as they rank the Dolphins 27th in pass defense. So there may be room to attack a formidable part of this team.

I rank Puka as the WR with the highest ceiling based on his ability to get downfield. He’s a threat to break a play from any spot on the field. Kupp is more of the possession type that they’ll move around the formation and create matchups to get him 8-10 targets (or more). Demarcus Robinson had a huge game last week but that was predicated on Puka getting kicked out in the 1st quarter.

Tier 1: Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp

Tier 2: Demarcus Robinson

Cheap Options: Tutu Atwell

Tight End

This was supposed to be a breakout year for Rams TE Colby Parkinson. But he has not broken out. So far this season, he has just one game with more than 50 yards. And he’s been shutout of the endzone. The Dolphins are good against TE’s, allowing the 10th fewest points to that position. I’m fading Parkinson in most of my lineups as the Rams have too many options and the Dolphins are vulnerable against the run so I foresee Parkinson more involved in the blocking game tonight.

Tier 1: Colby Parkinson

Tier 2:

FanDuel MVP and DraftKings CPT Picks—FNF Showdown

I want a high-usage player at MVP on FanDuel like Kyren Williams or De’Von Achane. They also have the TD equity and big play potential compared to their peers which is important on FanDuel. Both QB’s could be an option too, as they both have great receiving corps. Remember, you need the highest-scoring player, not the best value. The salaries do not change from flex to MVP on FanDuel, so the value at the MVP is not a priority. Take the points up top.

On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range. And in this case, that looks to be on the high price range side. My favorite is Kyren Williams but I also like Tyreek Hill, Puka Nacua, and De’Von Achane.

FanDuel

FanDuel MVP Tier 1: Kyren Williams, De’Von Achane

FDMVP Tier 2: Tyreek Hill, Puka Nacua

FDMVP Tier 3: Matt Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Tua Tagovailoa

DraftKings

DraftKings CPT Tier 1: Kyren Williams, De’Von Achane, Tyreek Hill

DK CPT Tier 2: Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp

DK CPT Tier 3: Matt Stafford, Tua Tagovailoa

DK CPT Punt: Jonnu Smith

Flex Rankings Tier 1:

Kyren Williams
Puka Nacua
Tyreek Hill
Cooper Kupp
De’Von Achane
Matt Stafford
Tua Tagovailoa

Flex Rankings Tier 2: (Don’t play more than 1 Tier 2 or Tier 3 guys)

Jaylen Waddle
Jonnu Smith
Demarcus Robinson
Raheem Mostert
Jason Sanders
Joshua Karty
Odell Beckham Jr

Punts/Fadeable: (Don’t play unless desperate)

Tutu Atwell
Colby Parkinson
Dolphins D
Rams D
Jaylen Wright

Best Rules for the slate:

The story of this slate is that we have many stars to choose from and they all see a high volume. There is not a lot of players that fall in the value bucket so you’ll need to choose your stars wisely.
We are projecting 25+ touches for Kyren Williams. Highest priced player for a reason but make sure you get him in all lineups.
De’Von Achane saw his highest snap count last week. Dolphins are desperate for a win and need to get their playmaker the ball. Consider him the Dolphins top offensive player tonight.
I have a feeling this could be a Tyreek Hill game. We’ve seen a receiver put up huge numbers from almost every team the Rams have faced. Remember Jauan Jennings and his 3 TD game?
I like Puka Nacua the most out of the Rams WR’s. He always carries an injury risk but he’s the big play maker in LA’s receiving room.
Both QB’s are in play. Neither will rack up big yards on the ground. But the potential for 2+ passing TD’s is real with both signal callers. I would not play both in the same lineup because you need to get the other high-priced players involved. But if you’re going 4/2 or 5/1 with a lineup then definitely consider a QB.
If you play a 4/2 or 5/1 stack, consider a kicker.
I’m not playing either defense as they both rank in the bottom 1/3rd of the league in points allowed and yards allowed.
I like Odell Beckham as my cheap option tonight. He’s made for the bright lights of LA.
Jonnu Smith or Jaylen Waddle will have a good game. There are not enough balls to go around for both to put up points. So keep them apart in your lineups.

Favorite prop for the game: Tyreek Hill longest reception over 26.5 yards (-110)

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

6 months ago 0 comments

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Sunday’s Best NFL DFS Core Plays: GPP Building Blocks – Week 10

David Jones 6 months ago

written by David Jones

*I’ll be updating this article on Sunday morning if there are any changes. Be sure to check back for the most current and accurate DFS plays.

Quarterback Rankings

Jalen Hurts: Highest floor ceiling combo in elite matchup
Brock Purdy: Better if Deebo Samuel is in
Justin Herbert: Too cheap, easy stack candidate
Baker Mayfield: Never fails, always under-owned
Caleb Williams: way too cheap, easy enough to stack but you don’t have to
Cooper Rush > Mac Jones

Running Back

Best Spend Ups:

Saquon Barkley
Alvin Kamara

Jonathan Taylor

The Colts likely need to establish the run here, and they should have much trouble doing so. Indy is without their WR1 and Joe Flacco has come back down to earth. Furthermore, a good way to beat Josh Allen is to keep him off the field and shorten the game by running the ball. The Bills give up the second most fantasy points to running backs, just behind the Carolina Panthers, in the league. They have been decent enough at stopping rushing TDs (5 allowed) but have gotten chewed up through the air giving up the single most receptions to backs (61) and tied for a league-worst receiving TDs to backs (4).

Best Mid-Range

James Cook
Aaron Jones
Rhamondre Stevenson (gaining interest here)
Najee Harris

James Conner

The Jets are not good at stopping the run (24^th in DVOA against the rush). James Conner has been stacking up yards recently while averaging over 20 touches per game (rushing and receiving). In two of his past three games, he has eclipsed 100 yards rushing and this was against the Chargers and the Bears, two very good defenses. He is also used in the passing game which makes him a better play on DraftKings than FanDuel.

Others to consider:

Bijan Robinson
Tyler Allgeier
Jordan McLaughlin (large field GPP)

Wide Receiver

Atlanta Falcons news

We need to know if Drake London is in or out. If he is in, at $6,700, I am happy to play him and to find out just how healthy he is. The obvious dilemma is how much will they need him, and if he will just be playing a decoy role. That would open up opportunities in the run game and for the other pass catchers. With how bad the Saints are at stopping the run on the season, the Falcons could easily just lean into their two-headed run game monster. But, with the recent trade of Marshon Lattimore, it suddenly got easier to throw on the Saints as well. After Kyle Pitts, Darnell Mooney is the best option if London is out. Ray-Ray McCloud is certainly worth a shot in GPPs as well.

Amari Cooper News:

Currently, Amari Cooper is questionable with the same wrist injury that kept him out in Week 9. If he is ruled out Khalil Shakir, as well as Dalton Kincaid, immediately becomes a priority for a main lineup in both GPPs and Cash.

Justin Jefferson

Justin Jefferson, the receiver who wanted one penny more than Ja’Marr Chase on his contract extension (allegedly), gets an elite matchup against the Jaguars defense that all the 4^th most fantasy points to receivers in the NFL. They are also dead last in DVOA against the pass. The matchup literally could not get better. He is the top spend-up at the position, on a week when there are plenty of question marks for higher-priced wide receivers.

Josh Downs and the Colts

With Michael Pittman out, your eye automatically looks for the next best option for the Colts receivers. That is going to be Josh Downs. You would probably assume as much with how Joe Flacco has elevated him, but then you also need to look at his primary matchup. He runs 85% of his routes out of the slot. The Bills slot corner, Taron Johnson, allows the most YPRC on the team. He allows over 3x the number of YPRC as Christian Benford, who plays on the outside. Downs will lead the active Bills receivers in YPRR by a mile, but he lacks in downfield plays. Both Alec Pierce and Adonai Mitchell are deep boom or bust plays that are cheap with potential in large-field GPPs.

San Francisco 49ers

Deebo Samuel is questionable. I tend to think he plays, in which case he is the best option, particularly in cash. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers allow an average of 38.4 fantasy points to receivers per game. In 9 weeks, they have given up 10 receiving TDs to receivers, 4 receiving TDs to tight ends, and 4 receiving TDs to running backs. Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall are both also in play here. Jennings will get a significant amount of run in the slot while Pearsall will be used on the outside more. The TD week is coming for Pearsall and there aren’t many better defenses to do it against than the Buccaneers. If Samuel is out, jam in Jennings, Pearsall, or George Kittle.

Others to consider/mix in MME

Davante Adams or Garrett Wilson (whichever fits honestly-essentially the same play)
Ladd McConkey
Quentin Johnston
Jordan Addison
Sterling Shepard (Better if Jalen McMillian is out)
Trey Palmer (Better if Jalen McMillian is out)
Parker Washington
Kendrick Bourne

Tight End Rankings

Cade Otton
Dalton Kincaid (better if Cooper is out)
George Kittle (better if Deebo is out)
Kyle Pitts (better if London is out)
Taysom Hill
Jake Ferguson

A lot of these injuries we will be discussing on the livestream tomorrow.

Again, I will update this article if anything changes. Be sure to come back and check for the most up-to-date plays.

6 months ago 0 comments

NFL Sports Betting Premium

NFL Bets & Survivor Pool Picks for 2024 Week Ten

Dave Gloeckner 6 months ago

written by Dave Gloeckner

We had our first big week of the NFL season last week going 3-1-1 in our posted game bets and hitting on 3 of 4 prop bets in Discord (including a +180 ATD bet). Then we started off this week with another winner as we cashed the Bengals at +6.5 on Thursday Night Football. So things are trending upwards as we look to get back, or over, the 0.500 mark this week. It’s taken a while, but staying consistent and fading the public has started to put money in our pockets.

As for Survivor, it’s been tough sledding but if you’re sill alive there are picks to be made and potential to bring home a big payday. We did hit on our pick last week with the Lions.

NFL BETS WEEK 10 (2024 SEASON RECORD: 18-20-1)

NEW YORK GIANTS -6 at CAROLINA PANTHERS (930am EST)

Reminder, this is a European game, so you have to get your bets in early for this one. The Giants and Panthers are in Munich for the final game of the season being played overseas. Both teams are 2-7 and each showed some fight last week, including a win by the Panthers over the Saints. To think this is almost a touchdown spread seems wild, considering how bad the Giants have been this year. But the troubles have mainly been at home, where New York is 0-5 with a point differential of -67. On the road, they are 2-2 with a point differential of +4. And this week, they are as far from home as possible.

On the other hand, the Panthers pulled off a big win behind QB Bryce Young as they beat the Saints 23-22. Considering they lost 47-10 to the Saints in Week 1, this was a massive turnaround and one that could provide momentum for the second half of the season. But I’m not buying it. Despite the win, Carolina is still the worst team in football with a -146 point differential. When they lose, they lose big. Each of their 7 losses in by double digits. So, if you think the Giants will win, chances are it will be by a wide margin.

Also consider the betting market is showing significant smart money on the Giants. The public is pouring in 67% of the bets on Carolina but just 28% of the money.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ers -6.5 at TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

Tampa gave everything they had on MNF against Kansas City despite being completely shorthanded on offense and defense. Yet, the Chiefs snuck out another one score victory with an OT win against the Bucs.

Now Tampa has a short week to prepare for San Fran who is coming off a bye. And news coming out of the bay is that star RB Christian McCaffrey will be activated for the game tomorrow.

This just looks like a tough spot for a Bucs team that struggles to stop the pass and is playing on fumes against a fully rested opponent in the 49ers.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS +4 vs BUFFALO BILLS

The Colts couldn’t have looked much worse last week in their primetime matchup on SNF versus the Vikings. Indianapolis managed just 6 offensive points and 227 total yards on way to a defeat in Minnesota. It’s left many to question whether benching QB Anthony Richardson was the right move. But HC Shane Steichen has stuck to his guns and once again handed the QB reigns to Joe Flacco. The Bills, on the other hand, pulled out an impressive win over the Dolphins despite being outgained by 50 yards and losing the time of possession battle.

The Bills win last week gave them a 4.5 game lead in the AFC East. At this point, the division is pretty much wrapped up as the Jets are in 2nd place at 3-6 overall. The Colts are sitting at 4-5 and playing a must win game. I’ll take the hungrier team in this matchup to pull off the outright win and keep their season alive. Add to that, the Bills have their arch-nemesis on the schedule next week in the Kansas City Chiefs. Looks like a classic trap game and look ahead spot.

HOUSTON TEXANS +3.5 vs DETROIT LIONS

The Lions are coming off another dominant performance. This time against their most hated rivals in the Green Bay Packers. Detroit is now 7-1 and look like the class of the NFL. This week they take their 6 game winning streak to Houston to face off against the 6-3 Texans. Houston is took a loss to the Jets on TNF in Week 9 despite outgaining the Jets by 30 yards. The main reason for the loss was the redzone, as they converted just 1 of 4 opportunities from inside the 20.

The books are taking big money on Detroit this week with 83% of the bets and 73% of the money on the Lions. Yet the opening line has moved from Detroit -4 to Detroit -3.5. Houston may have the services of WR Nico Collins this week which would be a boost to their offense. But they have enough on the defensive side to keep this game close as they rank 2nd in overall defense. I’ll fade the public here and take the Texans who will surely be motivated as a home dog in primetime.

BONUS DISCORD BET (Posted by 12pm on Sunday): TBD

SURVIVOR PICK

LA CHARGERS

The Chargers defense is solid and will keep Tennessee under 20 points. QB Justin Herbert is having a great season with 10 TD’s to only 1 INT. The recipe for success in LA is to play tough defense, run the ball and win the turnover battle. They’ll do all three tomorrow en route to their 6th win this season.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

6 months ago 0 comments

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NASCAR DFS Pit Stop Rankings Cup Series: Championship Race from Phoenix 11/10/24

Matt Vecchio 6 months ago

written by Matt Vecchio

Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop for the NASCAR Cup Series. In this article, I list my favorite plays in different categories to help you build your lineups for today’s race.

(Starting position in parenthesis)

(All pricing is for DK)

Championship 4:

Ryan Blaney (17) – $11.2K
William Byron (8) – $11K
Tyler Reddick (10) – $10.5K
Joey Logano (2) – $10.8K

All four drivers are potential dominators. Blaney was the fastest in practice (single lap and 10-lap avg) and starts furthest back making him the top play of this groups. I think we will need two of these four today and since there are plenty of great place differential plays at cheap salaries making it easy to fit multiple C4 drivers in.

Top Dominator Plays:

Kyle Larson (4) – $10K
Martin Truex Jr. (1) – $9K
Christopher Bell (7) – $10.3K
Chase Elliott (5) – $9.5K

If you want to only play one C4 driver, you can pair them with one the above drivers. If you want to go full stars and scrubs you roster one of these drivers with 2 of your C4 plays. With there being 312 laps, you will most likely need at least two dominators.

Place Differential/Value Plays:

Josh Berry (39) – $7.4K
Daniel Suarez (34) – $7.2K
Austin Dillon (36) – $7K
Ryan Preece (33) – $6.9K
Bubba Wallace (29) – $7.8K
Zane Smith (28) – $5.9K
Michael McDowell (35) – $6.4K

GPP high upside options:

Denny Hamlin (14) – $9.8K
Chris Buescher (24) – $8.2K
Brad Keselowski (27) – $8.6K
Chase Briscoe (12) – $8.4K
Alex Bowman (16) – $7.7K

Thanks everyone who played along with me this season. It was an up and down season this year and I do not know what the future holds for me. If this is the end, we had a lot of fun over the years and made a little bit of money along the way.

6 months ago 0 comments

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DFS

NFL BETS WEEK 12 (2024 SEASON RECORD: 24-27-1)

CHICAGO BEARS +3.5 vs MINNESOTA VIKINGS

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS +7.5 vs DETROIT LIONS

TAMPA BAY BUCANNEERS -5.5 at NEW YORK GIANTS

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS +1.5 vs ARIZONA CARDINALS

BONUS DISCORD BET (Posted by 12pm on Sunday): TBD

SURVIVOR PICK

WASHINGTON COMMANDERS

Sunday Main Slate 11/24/24

Chiefs @ Panthers (+10.5) (O/U 41.5)

Cash: Pat Mahomes, Travis Kelce

GPP: DeAndre Hopkins, KareemHunt/Isiah Pacheco (watch for injury reports)

Update: Isiah Pacheco is OUT…Kareem Hunt will get the lion share of touches

Bucs @ Giants (+5) (O/U 42)

Cash: Cade Otton, Malik Nabers

GPP: Tyrone Tracy, Rachaad White, Bucky Irving, Mike Evans (if healthy), Baker Mayfield, Tommy DeVito, Wan’Dale Robinson, Bucs DST

Update: Daniel Jones was released by the Giants

Lions @ Colts (+7.5) (O/U 50.5)

Cash: Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, David Montgomery

GPP: Jared Goff, Jameson Williams, Anthony Richardson, Sam LaPorta (if healthy), Josh Downs, Michael Pittman, Jonathon Taylor

Patriots @ Dolphins (-7) (U/O 46)

Cash: De’Von Achane, Jonnu Smith

GPP: Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Tua Tagovailoa, Drake Maye, Rhamondre Stevenson, DeMario Douglas, Kendrick Bourne, Kayshon Boutte

Vikings @ Bears (+3.5) (O/U 39.5)

Cash: Justin Jefferson

GPP: Aaron Jones, Vikings DST

Titans @ Texans (-8) (O/U 42)

Cash: Joe Mixon

GPP: Calvin Ridley, Nico Collins, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Tyler Boyd, Texans DST, Tony Pollard

Update: Tyjae Spears is out, Pollard will get all the work

Cowboys @ Commanders (-10.5) (O/U 45.5)

Cash: Brian Robinson, Jayden Daniels, Terry McLaurin, Luke Schoonmaker (if Ferguson is out)

GPP: Austin Ekeler, Noah Brown, Washington DST

Update: Ferguson is out…take the free space at tight end with Schoonmaker

Broncos @ Raiders (+5.5) (O/U 41)

Cash: Bo Nix, Brock Bowers

GPP: Javonte Williams, Courtland Sutton, Broncos DST, Audric Estime`, Ameer Abdullah (if Mattison and White are out)

Update: Mattison and White are doubtful… Ameer Abdullah and Derek Laube are more valuable at running back

Niners @ Packers (-2.5) (O/U 48)

Cash: Christian McCaffrey, Josh Jacobs, George Kittle

GPP: Jordan Love, Brock Purdy (if healthy), Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, Deebo Samuel, Jauan Jennings, Christian Watson, Tucker Kraft

Update: Brock Purdy is Out…Brandon Allen or Packers DST, just go with your gut

Cardinals @ Seahawks (-1) (O/U 47.5)

Cash: Kyler Murray, James Conner, DK Metcalf

GPP: Geno Smith, Jaxson Smith-Njigba, Kenneth Walker, Trey McBride, Marvin Harrison Jr,

HOUSTON TEXANS

Running Back

Wide Receiver

Tight End

DALLAS COWBOYS

Running Back

Wide Receiver

Tight End

FanDuel

DraftKings

NFL BETS WEEK 11 (2024 SEASON RECORD: 21-24-1)

CLEVELAND BROWNS +1 at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

DENVER BRONCOS -1.5 vs ATLANTA FALCONS

CHICAGO BEARS +6.5 vs GREEN BAY PACKERS

TENNESSEE TITANS +6 vs MINNESOTA VIKINGS

BONUS DISCORD BET (Posted by 12pm on Sunday): New York Jets -4

SURVIVOR PICK

DETROIT LIONS

Sunday Main Slate 11/17/24

Vikings @ Titans (+6) (O/U 39.5)

Cash: Justin Jefferson

GPP: Calvin Ridley, Aaron Jones, Will Levis, Vikings DST

Packers @ Bears (+6) (O/U 41)

Cash: Josh Jacobs

GPP: Jordan Love, Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, Tucker Kraft, Cole Kmet, D’Andre Swift, Caleb Williams, Packers DST, DJ Moore

Ravens @ Steelers (+3) (O/U 48.5)

Cash: Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, George Pickens, Russell Wilson

GPP: Zay Flowers, Mark Andrews, Mike Williams, Pat Freiermuth, Jaylen Warren, Najee Harris, Justice Hill, Diontae Johnson, Rashod Bateman

Rams @ Patriots (+4.5) (U/O 43.5)

Cash: None

GPP: Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua, Drake Maye, Rhamondre Stevenson, Cooper Kupp, Austin Hooper, Kayshon Boutte

Jaguars @ Lions (-13) (O/U 47)

Cash: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery

GPP: Jared Goff, Sam LaPorta, Lions DST

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