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NFL Bets & Survivor Pool Picks for 2024 Week Fourteen

Dave Gloeckner
written by Dave Gloeckner

We had another solid outing by going 3-1 in our plays from last week’s article. The Jets are the only team that prevented us from sweeping. So they are now on my banned list. Well at least banned for backing purposes. I also posted the Packers +3.5 last night hitting yet another Prime-Time game. Keep those post notifications on if you’re tailing as I’m usually waiting for late injury news before finalizing my plays. I will note, we had SF last Sunday night and that was trending nicely until McCaffrey’s injury. Therefore, overall, I was 4-2 in the past week which gets us to the magical 0.500 mark. Let’s keep this rolling as this time of year is the best time to make some extra cash.

Of note, the public went 11-5 last week. Of the 5 “non-public” plays, we were on four of them all weekend with Chicago (Thursday), LV (Friday), Arizona and Carolina. Road teams stole the show going 9-7 ATS in Week 13 with eight outright wins.

As for Survivor, the Broncos did what I expected and forced Jameis into critical turnovers. If it wasn’t for those pick 6’s, the Browns would have come out with a victory. So we breathe a sigh of relief.

NFL BETS WEEK 14 (2024 SEASON RECORD: 32-32-1, game bets only)

ATLANTA FALCONS +5.5 at MINNESOTA VIKINGS

This is the 3rd straight week I’m betting against Minnesota. And if you’ve followed me the previous weeks, then you have some extra cash in your pockets. The Vikings are a very fashionable 10-2, but just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games. The market has adjusted and so have other teams. It’s shown, if you have a serviceable QB, you can score on the Vikings. Just ask Goff, Stafford, or Kyler Murray. Since October 6, which is the seven game streak I speak of, those teams have combined for 15 scoring drives against the vaunted Vikings D.

While Kirk Cousins showed his worst last week, throwing 4 INT’s, the Falcons rank as a top 10 offense in yards per game. According to DVOA they are 13th overall, ranking as the 10th best rushing offense and 13th best passing team. And then there’s a little bit of motivation. We saw it with Jerry Jeudy on MNF. While Cousins wasn’t traded, like Jeudy, he wasn’t overly pursued by the Vikings in FA.

The Falcons are at a very low point in their season, and one in which the public sees a vulnerability. I’ll take the return of Kirk and I expect the Falcons to play one of their best games of the season this weekend in Minnesota.

CAROLINA PANTHERS +12.5 at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

The Eagles are coming off of one of the best wins in the 2024 NFL season as they shut down the #1 offense in Baltimore to come away with a 24-19 road victory against one of the AFC’s best. Now they return home, after a two-game road trip where they beat two winning teams, to face one of the worst teams in the NFL. And this is sandwiched between a huge Keystone state showdown next week against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

As for the Panthers, since Bryce Young took over in Week 8, Carolina has been much more competitive and that’s due in part to an uptick in their offensive output. In all, the Panthers have covered four straight winning two of those outright as underdogs.

I fear a lack of motivation in Philly this weekend. We saw it when Cleveland and Jacksonville visited the Linc, with both those teams covering big numbers. And the Eagles have a propensity to allow late garbage time offense, with their last three opponents scoring a TD in the 4th quarter with less than 70 seconds left on the clock. I could definitely see a letdown and backdoor cover here in Philly.

ARIZONA CARDINALS -2.5 vs SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

We backed the Seahawks two weeks ago in their matchup with Arizona. A critical pick-6 from Kyler Murray helped fuel that winning bet. And guess what, Seattle did it again last week as DT Leonard Williams returned an errant Aaron Rodgers pass 92 yards for a score. Take a step back even further, to Week 11, where the Seahawks pulled off a miraculous comeback in San Fran with a Geno Smith rushing TD with only 12 seconds left on the clock. To say it nicely, Seattle is playing with house money. And the house doesn’t lose that often.

On the other side, the Cardinals let one slip away last week in Minnesota. They kicked 5 FG’s and went 1 for 6 in the redzone. Similar to Seattle’s fluky takeaways that turned into scores, the Cardinals lack of production in the redzone is not sustainable (1 for their last 8). I like both these teams fortunes to turn this week as a Cardinals win will further muck-up the NFC West and make the division must watch TV down the stretch.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS -6.5 vs CLEVELAND BROWNS

The one public team I will back, for a 2nd straight week, is the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers are still fuming from their loss in Cleveland two weeks ago. They have revenge on their minds. And as long as Winston is back there “Farve-ing” it, we have high volatility in this game. Meaning we could see a Browns win to a Pittsburgh blowout. I lean to the latter and look for the Steelers to keep up their winning ways this week at home. The other thing to consider, the Steelers were 3.5 to 4 point favorites in Cleveland two weeks ago. The spread is only a few points higher so I think we’re getting a discount here as a road to home flip usually costs 5 to 6 points.

BONUS DISCORD BET (Posted by 12pm on Sunday): TBD

SURVIVOR PICK

MIAMI DOLPHINS

If you still have the Dolphins in your pool, this is the week to use them. The Jets have quit. Their QB stinks. The Defense is worse. And there’s no real relief in sight.

Now that you finished reading the NFL BETS & SURVIVOR POOL PICKS article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

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NFL Game-by-Game Breakdown for Week 14

Joe DiCarlo
written by Joe DiCarlo

Welcome back to another breakdown as we get another week closer to the playoffs and the season coming to an end. It was another spot on the weekend with a few surprises, but nothing we haven’t seen before in football. Bryce Young, Tommy Tremble, and Adam Thielen were all talked up last week and provided a ton of value while saving your salary if you dropped them in your lineups. Let’s get right to Week 14 fellas, it’s crunch time.

Stay tuned for all our injury news, updates, and Discord-building advice. Also, check out our Optimizer and Projection Models to get the best possible performance from your lineups. Also, check back into the article during the week as we approach kickoff for more content, as more game breakdowns will be available as we approach the Sunday Slate.

Sunday Main Slate 12/8/24

Panthers @ Eagles (-12) (O/U 46)

The Panthers pack up and hit the road for the “City of Brotherly Love”, but will not see a warm welcoming as 12-point dogs to the Eagles. It’s one of the best hosting one of the worst teams in the NFC, a great matchup for Philly who has been playing on a full head of steam all year. This game seems to be pretty cut and dry so let’s take a look.

The Bucs capitalized last week in Carolina by feeding the ball to Bucky Irving against the worst run defense in the NFL. He made the article last week as well and brought in a sexy 5X value for 30-plus DK points. Mike Evans also had a field day when Baker chose to throw it to his main man, Mike Evans, who hit him up for 28 DKFPTS. Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley and AJ Brown are all in great spots at home this weekend, but perhaps if DeVonta Smith gets healthy at $5,800 on DraftKings the Eagles may want to begin to ramp him up for the playoffs as he’s missed his last two games.

Bryce Young showed us even more last weekend against Tampa, throwing for 298 yards and a touchdown while also rushing in a score himself for nearly 6X his price tag. The real test will be on the cold field of Lincoln Financial against a top-five run and passing defense. This may not be the week to double down on Carolina for DFS in this matchup, but ownership will be very low if you are looking for leverage with another shot at any of these players. Pay up for the Philly D if you can afford them.

Cash: Saquon Barkley, Jalen Hurts, Eagles DST

GPP: AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith (if healthy)

Raiders @ Bucs (-6.5) (O/U 46)

Vegas will head south to face off against a playoff-hungry Bucs team coming off an emotional OT win in Carolina. The Raiders however are beginning to show some precision themselves after Aidan O’Connell returned from IR to throw his arm off in a valiant effort in Kansas City. We targeted that Tampa secondary last week with Carolina and cashed in, so should we run it back?

I can’t get enough silver and black in my DFS lineups this week after what I witnessed against the Bucs last week. Jordan Whitehead and Tykee Smith are severely missed in this secondary that currently has allowed the third most in passing yardage and sixth most passing touchdowns. Aidan O’Connell along with Jakobi Meyers,, Tre Tucker, and Brock Bowers are staples for GPP tournaments. Pay attention to the backfield injury reports as well for Vegas, as we may be able to use Ameer Abdulah and Sincere McCormick if Mattison and White remain sidelined.

Tampa may seem to have a nice matchup on paper against Vegas, but the Raiders are building off a game in Kansas City that held their opponents to one touchdown and sacked Pat Mahomes five times with a fumble. Baker Mayfield hopefully recovers quickly after a cleat stepped on his leg last Sunday because these Raiders could be trouble these days. For DFS we can’t fade any of these Bucs, especially in a shortened slate. All are safe for cash and GPPs, keep an eye out on injury status as always. I love the min-priced Raiders defense ($2,300 on DraftKings) if they do show up again.

Cash: Bucky Irving, Mike Evans, Brock Bowers, Baker Mayfield

GPP: Aiden O’Connell, Jakobi Meyers, Tre Tucker, Cade Otton, Raiders DST

Jets @ Dolphins (-6) (O/U 44.5)

The Jets will travel to Miami in an AFC East battle as both teams are on their last legs to make the playoffs. New York, losers of three straight, has struggled on both sides of the football all season and will make one final push to save face. Miami, on the other hand, has found its rhythm again offensively thanks to the return of Tagovailoa. It’s a decent-sized spread of 6, but these two teams know each other pretty well, and it could be a tight game. Here are the DFS plays.

If Aaron Rodgers has anything left in his tank, hopefully, he empties some this weekend in Miami. He’s lately reconnected with Davante Adams in the last three games they’ve connected on 17 of 32 targets for 169 yards and a touchdown. It’s not the most exciting, but the targets are what interests me. Expect a heavy passing game from Rodgers as running back Breece Hall continues to miss practice. Garrett Wilson and Allen Lazard off IR should see extra looks on Sunday, and if Hall doesn’t suit up, Braelon Allen becomes a lock for cash games at $5,000 on DraftKings.

Rodgers can not take all the blame for the Jets’ failure this season, their defense has been a dumpster fire giving up score after score putting them in losing situations. Gang Green has allowed crucial game-deciding touchdowns in their last three games. The Dolphins have averaged thirty points per game over their last three wins and will be too much to handle for New York who still have no answers on defense. De’Von Achane, Tyreek Hill, and Tua Tagovailoa all show up this weekend along with Jonnu Smith who has been a monster piece for this Dolphins’ offense (25 REC/301 YDS/3 TDS in last three games).

Cash: Jonnu Smith, De’Von Achane, Braelon Allen (if Breece Hall is Out)

GPP: Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, Garrett Wilson, Allen Lazard

Update: Breece Hall is OUT

Falcons @ Vikings (-5.5) (U/O 45.5)

We next get a weather-friendly game in Minnesota as the NFC South-leading Falcons take on the Vikings. Minnesota is a solid 10-2 that has been coached up this season thanks to Kevin O’Connell and Brian Flores. There’ll also be some familiar faces in town that may have a chip on their shoulder from a year ago, so a revenge game narrative is in effect here. Let’s check it out.

Kirk Cousins is back in town, but will he be ready to get everything off of his chest? After being allowed to test free agency last season, Cousins quickly signed to Atlanta after spending his last six with the Vikings. He’s struggled his last three games, only completing 63% of his passes with five picks. Cousins regardless is a solid GPP option on a short slate connected to Drake London, Darnell Mooney, and Kyle Pitts, against a pass-funnel Vikings defense. I will never talk you off Bijan Robinson either, with a solid price of $7,500 on DraftKings.

Minnesota will be welcoming Cousins back this week, but will not be rolling out the red carpet I guarantee. He left abruptly, without any chance for Minnesota to counter-offer Atlanta’s deal. Here we are in Week 14 with Kevin O’Connell molding Sam Darnold into a respectable quarterback of a 10-win team. The Falcons ranked 22nd overall defending their own endzone in points allowed, who are 21st in DVOA to opposing quarterbacks and receivers. However, I’m not afraid to use any Viking this week, especially Justin Jefferson, whose salary has dropped to under $8K and is due a big game after the last few quiet outings.

Cash: Justin Jefferson, Bijan Robinson, Drake London

GPP: Kirk Cousins, Darnell Mooney, TJ Hockenson, Kyle Pitts, Aaron Jones, Jordan Addison

Saints @ Giants (+5) (O/U 40.5)

The New York Giants are heavy home underdogs, and their total against a disheveled Saints team at the Meadowlands is depressingly low. The forecast does look promising after a cold spell in the NorthEast, so we may be in luck for some big plays from each team’s stars. Both teams are also playing for pride, as their records are hovering at the bottom of the standings.

Both clubs have horrid defenses, and when the two of them clash it makes us do backflips for DFS. The Giants have been gashed in the trenches all year long, allowing the fourth most yards per game at 145. Alvin Kamara stands alone in the backfield now that Taysom Hill is done for the season and is a pay-up cash play at running back. New Orleans is severely thin on offense, which may force more targets to tight ends, such as Juwan Johnson and Foster Moreau from Derek Carr.

New Orleans is also guilty of hemorrhaging yardage, the third most total yards per game in the league. It will be Lock, not DeVito under center for New York so we should have a little more faith in them moving the chains. Lock, Nabers, Tracy, and now Daniel Bellinger all make the GPP list against the dejected Saints’ defense. Both defenses are also a fair play this week too given the history of turnovers between the two.

Cash: Alvin Kamara, Juwan Johnson

GPP: Malik Nabers, Drew Lock, Tyrone Tracy, Daniel Bellinger, MVS, Mason Tipton, Giants DST, Saints DST

Browns @ Steelers (-6.5) (O/U 44)

An AFC North matchup hits the slate as the rejuvenated Jameis Winston and the Browns head into the Steel City to face Pittsburgh. Russell Wilson has also found his swagger back after firing off over 400 yards with three touchdowns against Cincinnati last week. It’s a low total that will be played on the cold field of Arcisure Stadium but after what we witnessed between both clubs last week it’s safe to dip back for DFS.

The Steelers have ranked sixth overall on defense but were ransacked by Burrow and the Bengals for 300-plus yards and three touchdowns. If Winston brings the same fire from his last game in Denver, we may have another AFC North shootout. Jerry Jeudy has been fully unlocked in this new and improved pass-heavy offense along with David Njoku and Elijah Moore. However Jameis has gone back to some old habits throwing two pick-sixes last week, so the Steelers DST is another spot to target in lineups.

Cleveland did step up defensively on the road with two picks but gave up 29 points thanks to Winston. Erase those 14 points and they win in Denver, but we’re in Pittsburgh now. Wilson has found his mojo and will keep the momentum moving at home. George Pickens, Wilson’s main target in the offense, somehow came up with a hamstring injury on Friday, so monitoring his status will be a priority up until kickoff. If he can’t suit up, Pat Friermuth, Calvin Austin, Mike Williams, and Van Jefferson will all see an uptick. Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren will also be involved more if he is in fact out.

Cash: George Pickens (if healthy), Russell Wilson

GPP: Jameis Winston, Jerry Jeudy, David Njoku, Pat Friermuth, Elijah Moore

Jaguars @ Titans (-3.5) (O/U 39.5)

I have high hopes for this AFC South matchup regardless of the sub-forty total. Two horrendous defenses will meet face-to-face once again this weekend in Tennessee, so giddy up. The 3-9 Titans will host the 2-10 Jaguars in a matchup being played for draft positioning and future employment next season. Ignore the Vegas total for DFS, here’s why.

The Jags have surrendered chunks of yardage and touchdowns to their opponents all season, allowing nearly 275 through the air and 133 on the ground, along with 28 points per game on average. We gobble up players for DFS with these kinds of matchups, and Levis at $5,000 on DraftKings can easily reach 3X his value on the slate. Tony Pollard, Calvin Ridley, and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine all make it into lineups across any format.

Now Tennessee does not allow a ton of yardage, and ranks second in the league, however, they do allow touchdowns. Twenty through the air and fourteen on the ground to be exact, and the defense is now hanging on by a thread after reading their injury report. Mac Jones returns under center for the Jags and will be peppering targets to Evan Engram and Brian Thomas all afternoon, so get them in your GPPs.

Cash: Tony Pollard, Will Levis, Calvin Ridley

GPP: Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Mac Jones, Brian Thomas, Evan Engram

Seahawks @ Cardinals (-2.5) (O/U 44.5)

As we enter the late afternoon slate it kicks off in the NFC West as the Seahawks desperately try to keep the second-place Cardinals off their lead in the division. The last time these two played was just only two weeks ago as Seattle won 16-6 in a battle between the kickers. Hopefully, we see some end-zone visits this weekend in the desert, so let’s check in and see who’s available.

The Cardinals have dropped their last two games to fall to second in the division but will be all hands on deck at home to regain position. Trey McBride was bombarded with targets in their first meeting, cashing in 12 of 15 for 133 yards. McBride should see heavy volume once again as the Cardinals seek to take back first place.

The Seahawks will be without Kenneth Walker this week due to a calf and ankle injury, so fire up Zach Charbonnet in your cash or GPP lineups for only $4,800 on DraftKings. Jaxson Smith Njigba you may want to consider also, as he was the beneficiary of the last game’s only touchdown, however, DK Metcalf is always a solid play on any DFS slate for his ceiling. Both are priced affordably on DraftKings in the low $6K range.

Cash: Zach Charbonnet, Trey McBride

GPP: Jaxson Smith-Njigba, DK Metcalf

Bills @ Rams (+4.5) (O/U 49.5)

Now comes the highest total on the slate at 49.5 as the Bills fly to the West Coast to face the Rams on Primetime. Buffalo has looked invincible of late, winners of seven straight games including The Super Bowl Champion Kansas City Chiefs. Josh Allen is MVP-bound and is set to make his debut in Hollywood. The Rams do have the firepower to compete with anyone in the league, but will it be enough to put out Buffalo’s fire?

Stafford’s arm has been busy this season, as he’s eighth in pass attempts. Although he’s thrown for almost 700 yards and 8 touchdowns in his last three games, the Bills have defended the pass very well. Against the run, not so well. They allow an average of 122 yards per game on the ground and are 30th in DVOA to opposing running backs. I’ll never tell you to fade Kupp, Nacua, or Stafford, but Kyren Williams may be the most reasonable play against Buffalo. All are GPP and cash game plays.

Josh Allen is a lock week in and week out across the DFS community as we’ve seen over the past few seasons, but who else can be trusted for the Bills in DFS for production? The ball is spread so evenly by Allen that it’s impossible to guess who will go off when all of his receivers are healthy, but we can always count on Cook. James ranks eighth in the league in fantasy points per game averaging just over 17. Both are great for cash, but anyone else should be kept in tournaments only.

Cash: Josh Allen, Kyren Williams, James Cook

GPP: Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp, Matt Stafford, Khalil Shakir

Bears @ Niners (-4) (O/U 44)

Finally, we end the slate in the Bay Area as the struggling and injury-prone Forty Niners host the Bears who are losers of six straight. Injuries bring value to lineups, and a very popular player this week will be uncovered in this part of the breakdown, who should see the highest ownership on the slate. The Niners are desperate for a win, and the Bears may be happy to oblige as their defense has been a wreck.

If you thought San Fransisco’s luck couldn’t get any worse, think again. Not only did they lose McCaffrey again to IR, but they also lost backup running back Jordan Mason. Ownership will be through the roof for Isaac Guerendo to take the reigns at lead back this week, so start him at cash. But for GPPs, it’s perhaps best to pivot to some of the Niner pass-catchers such as George Kittle and Deebo Samuel in a must-win game for Frisco.

Despite the amount of losses and missteps, the rookie Caleb Williams has flourished under new head coach and former OC Tom Brown. In his last two games, Williams has thrown for nearly 600 yards with five touchdowns and NO interceptions. I will take a flyer on Caleb in GPPs with his low $5,600 pricetag on DraftKings along with his veteran receivers DJ Moore and Keenan Allen. Cole Kmet was the forgotten man on Thanksgiving and should remain that again as the Niners are third in DVOA to opposing tight ends.

Cash: Isaac Guerendo

GPP: George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, Caleb Williams, DJ Moore, Keenan Allen

Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game-by-Game Breakdown for Week 14! Remember to check back daily for more updates and content until kickoff. You can reach me on X @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord, tag me @DiCarlo78, for any lineup build opinions or questions. I’m always here to help! Gain access to our projection models and jump into our Discord, where our experts and I will talk about plays across every sport 24/7/365!

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NCAA FootballPremium

CFB Conference Championship Friday Breakdown

Ivan Herrera
written by Ivan Herrera

Welcome back to another exciting season of CFB! We are starting the conference championship weekend with the Conference USA, Mountain West and American Athletic title games. Two of these games (CUSA and MWC) are rematches of close regular season games.

The purpose of this article is to break down the college football main slates, both on the DFS and betting sites. The article includes my favorite plays at every position as well as honorable mentions. You can also find my favorite bets under my Dragos Best Bets section.

Conference USA: Jax State (-4) vs Western Kentucky (O/U 59)

The first game on Friday’s three-game slate is the battle for Conference USA supremacy, featuring Jax State against Western Kentucky. This is a rematch from the last week of the season, in which Western Kentucky beat Jax State 19-17 at home. This time Jax State will have the pleasure of hosting Western Kentucky with much higher stakes on the line

Favorite Plays:

JaxState: Tre Stewart (RB, $8500) is the best play on the JaxState side. If starting quarter back Tyler Huff was 100% he would be one of the best plays on the slate, but he is dealing with an ankle injury and is listed as a GTD. Because of that I am going with the Gamecocks leading back Stewart. He is averaging 5.9 yards per carry and he had 85 yards on 20 carries against this same WKU last weekend. With the uncertainty at quarterback I’m expecting Stewart to see a slight uptick in workload. WKU is one of the worse teams against the run ranking 122nd in CFB allowing 208.2 yards. JaxState ran for 229 yards against them last week so I am not expecting anything to change in the Gamecock game plan.

WKU: Caden Veltkamp (QB, $7700) is one of the best quarterbacks on the slate. Veltkamp was second in passing yards for a CUSA quarterback with 2665 yards, he was 38th in all of CFB. He was also 19th in passing efficiency with 153.58 and 24th in passing touchdowns (22). The JaxState passing defense has been ok this season finishing the regular season ranked 73rd in passing yards allowed (221.7). In last week’s game Veltkamp threw for 301 yards but he only threw one touchdown pass which hurt him in DFS. He was a bit unlucky to not score more, and if JaxState allows him to complete 60% of his 40+ attempts again, he should be in for a much better DFS performance. Kisean Johnson (WR, 6800) is Veltkamp’s top target, he finished the regular season with 65 receptions for 830 yards and six touchdowns. In the last five weeks of the season he averaged 5.6 receptions for 67.4 yards and had two touchdowns. Easton Messer (WR, 5000) and Dalvin Smith (WR, 4100) have both been solid options for Veltkamp but they struggled to finish off the year. Both averaged less receptions in the final five games than they were averaging coming into that stretch of games.

Other Plays for the Game: Michael Pettway (WR, $3900). Elijah Young (RB, $6200)

Mountain West: Boise State (-4.5) vs. UNLV (O/U 57.5)

The second game on the slate is the much-anticipated rematch between Boise State and UNLV. In their first game at UNLV, the Broncos managed to survive a back-and-forth slugfest with a 29-24 victory over the Rebels. This time, Albertsons Stadium in Boise will have the pleasure of hosting these two in a battle for a CFP spot.

Favorite Plays:

Boise State: Ashton Jeanty (RB, $12500) should be the Heisman favorite given the incredible season he is having at Boise. Jeanty comes into the slate ranked first in rushing yards (2288), touchdowns (28), and yards per carry (7.33). The Rebel are one of the best rush defense in CFB. They are ranked 10th, allowing 101.1 yards and 1.2 touchdowns per game. In his Week Nine game against UNLV, Jeanty had 128 yards, a touchdown, and three receptions for 11 yards. That was Jeanty’s worse game of the season, he had fewer DK points against Portland State but he didn’t play the 2nd half. This game should be very similar with Jeanty having to earn his yards, but I expect him to make a statement to everyone watching before leading the Broncos to a CFP spot. Maddux Madsen (QB, $6400) had one of his best games of the year against UNLV because like every other opponent the main focus is on Jeanty. With his price I like Madsen a lot because UNLV will stack the box in the first half against Jeanty so Madsen should have space to throw to his receivers.

UNLV: Hajj-Malik Williams (QB, $9600) has been one of the better dual-threat quarterbacks since taking over for Sluka who left early in the year due to NIL issues. In his matchup against Boise State, Williams was able to finish with 279 yards and three total touchdowns. Similar to the first game, for UNLV to have a shot at the end Williams will have to find a way to produce both with his arm and legs. His best target all season has been Ricky White III (WR, $8000). White is one of the better wide receivers in CFB, ending the regular season 18th in receiving yards (1020) and fifth in receiving touchdowns (11). Boise State did a great job holding him to just five receptions for 57 yards in their first game but I’m expecting a much better performance as he looks to spoil Boise State’s CFP chances.

Other Plays For the Game: Cameron Camper (WR, $4400). Jacob de Jesus (WR, $4000). Latrell Caples (WR, $3100). Jai’De Thomas (RB, $5200)

American Athletic: Tulane (-4.5) vs Army (O/U 45.5)

The final game on the slate is the only game that doesn’t feature a rematch from earlier in the year. Tulane is making their third straight AAC title game, they beat UCF in 2022 but fell to now ACC members SMU last season. Meanwhile Army is looking to defend their turf and capture their first ever Conference title in school history in their first season in the AAC.

Favorite Plays:

Tulane: Makhi Hughes (RB, $8000) is looking to get back on track after being shutdown by Memphis last week in a game that cost them a chance at the CFP. Hughes had a season low 15 rushing yards and 6.1 DK points, which snapped his eight game streak of 19.9 or more DK points dating back to his 16.4 game against Oklahoma in Week 3. Army has one of the better rush defense on paper but over the past two weeks they have struggled to contain the running game. Over the last two games Army has allowed 397 yards against the two best rushing offenses they faced all year. Hughes has played against three top 25 rush defenses this season averaging 71.3 yards against them and scored a touchdown. If Hughes does struggle, then it’ll be up to Darian Mensah (QB, $5800) to carry this team like he did last week against Memphis. If Mesah does have to lead this Green Wave side, then Mario Williams (WR, $5100) should be in for a good game. He led Tulane in receptions (48) and yards (831) this season after transferring over from USC.

ARMY: The Army offense revolves around Bryson Daily (QB, $10300). Daily has been effective running Army’s triple option. He led all CFB QBs with 1354 rushing yards, which was also good for 9th in all of CFB. He has no value as a passer so for him to succeed he will need to continue his great rushing season. Kanye Udoh (RB, $5900) was Army’s second leading rusher behind Daily and he’ll need to support Daily if Army wants to win their first Conference title in school history. He averaged 6.2 rushing yards per carry which was .5 more than Daily.

Other Plays For the Game: Noah Short (RB, $4400). Dontae Fleming (WR, $4500). Alex Bauman (WR, $3400)

Drago’s Best Bets:
  • Western Kentucky ML (+150) vs Jax State
  • Boise State -4.5 (-108) vs UNLV
  • Army +4.5 (-108) vs Tulane

Make sure to check out the CFB live stream every week on the Win Daily YouTube page.

Make sure to hop in our Expert Discord Chat for FREE! Ivan (idrago15) will be there answering questions all day and all night! Follow Ivan on Twitter @idragol15 and be sure to be on the lookout for future articles at https://windailysports.com/ncaa-football-articles/

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MONDAY NIGHT SHOWDOWN STRATEGY: CLEVELAND BROWNS at DENVER BRONCOS

Dave Gloeckner
written by Dave Gloeckner

Week 13 of the NFL season wraps up tonight with Monday Night Football. We have a battle of classic AFC teams as the Browns head to Denver to take on the Broncos. As for Win Daily, we’ve had multiple takedowns in the one-game slates, i.e. Showdowns, this year. How many other sites can say that? It’s just proof that the work you put in will produce results! So, let’s keep the hot streak going as we have a good one tonight in a battle between the Browns and Broncos. Below is my top DFS showdown picks and strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, helping you build winning lineups.

A note about tonight’s game is that we have a high point spread and low total as Denver is a 6-point favorite with a game total at 42. Points are a premium tonight with two good defenses taking the field.

For a deeper dive into general showdown rules, make sure to check out David Jones’s “Daily Fantasy Football Showdown: Strategy for Building Winning Lineups” article. It’s essential reading for anyone crafting MME lineups, as player salary and team dynamics can impact each game’s approach.

Link: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/

Note on Quarterbacks:

I will not write up the quarterbacks because the wide receiver and tight end section tend to cover the matchups. The QB rankings are at the bottom of the article. 

CLEVELAND BROWNS

Running Back

It’s official, Nick Chubb is back. Even though he returned to action 5 weeks ago, last Thursday was the first game where he flashed fantasy dominance again. Chubb saw 66% of the snaps to Jerome Ford’s 34%. And he received 21 of the 26 touches to RB’s (81%). In the week prior to last, Chubb got just 30% of the snaps. Last week’s game was his highest snap count and touches of the season and we can think his production will ultimately stay here or increase slightly.

Which makes him a good target on tonight’s showdown as Denver has allowed the 15th most fantasy points to RB’s this season. Their advanced metrics are solid, showing up as 4th in rush defense DVOA and 9th in rushing defense rating. But the issue is in pass coverage as they’ve allowed the 2nd most receptions to RB’s (68), 4th most yards (502) and 2nd most receiving TD’s (4).

Chubb has seen only 7 targets and 3 catches this season. So he might not make a huge dent in the passing game but he will get the goal line carries. So keep him in mind tonight.

But also consider Jerome Ford as he’s more of the 3rd down back who does have 26 catches on the season. If the Browns get behind early, the game script could call for more Ford than Chubb.

Tier 1: Nick Chubb

Tier 2: Jerome Ford

Punt:

Wide Receiver

Denver CB Patrick Surtain III is one of the top defensive backs in the league. Which is why the Broncos allow the 2nd least fantasy points to WR’s this season. Coming into Week 12, Patrick Surtain III has the highest rating for any DB in the league according to PFF. Opposite Surtain is Riley Moss who is a significant drop off and one you can target as he’s made just 8 pass breakups and 1 INT on the season while registering 51st overall DB according to PFF.

There is a story here in Denver for one of Cleveland’s WR’s. Former first round pick Jerry Jeudy returns to Denver who traded him away last season. And he’s been on a heater of late, averaging 6 catches per game over the last four games. In those games, he’s received an average of 9 targets. Important note here is Jameis Winston was the starting QB in all of those contests. And he may even know a trick or two on how to beat Surtain. So Jeudy is fully in play tonight based on story and recent play.

Elijah Moore is a top target for Winston too and he primarily works out of the slot adding value to his potential tonight against a tough Denver D.

With Cedric Tillman out, rookie WR Jamari Thrash will likely get the 3rd receiver role. The 5th round pick has only 1 catch on the season but that’s been in limited snaps. Thrash was all All-ACC 2nd team receiver in 2023 for the Louisville Cardinals. He has solid speed and could be very valuable at only a $1000 salary.

Tier 1: Jerry Jeudy, Elijah Moore

Tier 2: Jamari Thrash

Punts: Jaelon Darden

Tight End

David Njoku disappointed in the snow last week. He missed several catches, including a TD, that could have helped fantasy owners. In total, he had just one catch on five targets.

But the second of those numbers is key as it was tied for 2nd on the team last week. Jameis will continue to feed Njoku the ball and the Broncos are allowing the 20th most points to TE’s this year,

The other factor is backup TE Jordan Akins saw the field a good bit last week and reeled in three of four targets. So he should be considered in your player pool as well.

Tier 1: David Njoku

Tier 2: Jordan Akins

Punt/Fadeable:

DENVER BRONCOS

Running Back

At this point, does anyone really know what the Broncos will do at RB other than HC Sean Payton? In Week 12, Javonte Williams saw 56% of the snaps but just 50% of the touches. And Jaleel McLaughlin outpaced Audric Estime with 7 touches to 3. In Week 11 it was a similar workload for Williams, but Estime out-touched McLaughlin 9 to 4 in that contest. And then we look back at Week 10 and Estime got 45% of the snaps and 76% of the touches when Denver took on KC.

So in a recap, Estime went from leader in the clubhouse 3 weeks ago to seeing just 7% of the snaps and 15% of the touches last week.

Cleveland allows the 8th most rushing yards per game in the league at 130.6. But they’ve done a good job covering RB’s in the passing game allowing the second least receptions to ball carriers on ZERO receiving TD’s.

This is tough spot to favor anyone. Williams is getting 10+ touches the last 2 weeks and was the big winner on their Thursday night showdown back when they played the Saints. But if I trust anyone, it’s Williams. The issue I foresee is Payton flipping back to one of his other RB’s if they get a hot hand. There’s lots of risk here no matter who you play (if any).

Tier 1: Javonte Williams

Tier 2: Jaleel McLaughlin, Audric Estime

Wide Receiver

This is where we get to the good part of this game. Cleveland allows the 5th most fantasy points to opposing WR’s. And their advanced metrics show it could be worse as they have the 2nd worst coverage rating according to PFF. DVOA has the Browns ranked 24th against the pass.

The Denver passing game has been electric of late, especially WR Courtland Sutton. The Broncos #1 WR is the most expensive player on the slate and that’s for good reason. In his last 5 games, he is averaging 7 catches and 93 yards per outing. Combined with his 3 TD’s, that’s good for 22.2 fantasy points per game.

The Browns have only one DB ranked in PFF’s top 100, Denzel Ward. Which is a big reason why they have been attacked regularly through the air.

My second favorite receiver in Denver is Devaughn Vele. The big bodied rookie receiver from Utah is a matchup problem. He’s also on a good streak recording double digit fantasy points in three straight outings.

Denver will rotate their other receivers based on scheme. We saw Mims get 4 targets last week making him an intriguing option for being the lowest salaried of the group. He’s brought in 9 catches in the last 3 games for 106 yards and a TD.

The weather looks calm in Denver tonight with a game time temp around 42 degrees F and light winds. Very good throwing conditions for Nix and his WR’s.

Tier 1: Courtland Sutton

Tier 2: Devaughn Vele

Cheap Options: Lil’Jordan Humphrey, Troy Franklin, Marvin Mims Jr

Tight End

Adam Trautman and Lucas Krull have a combined 19 catches this season for 254 yards. The Broncos just don’t use the TE much in the passing game. I’d avoid this position unless you had to fill something in. I’d prefer the cheaper Broncos WR’s, such as Mims Jr.

Tier 1: Adam Trautman

Tier 2:

FanDuel MVP and DraftKings CPT Picks—FNF Showdown 

I want a high-usage player at MVP on FanDuel like Bo Nix or Courtland Sutton. The QB’s are both in play as Winston and Nix will look to throw the ball downfield. The salaries do not change from flex to MVP on FanDuel, so the value at the MVP is not a priority. Take the points up top. 

On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range. And in this case, that looks to be on the high price range side. I still believe the 2 QB’s are your best options at the CPT spot as well.

FanDuel

FanDuel MVP Tier 1: Bo Nix, Courtland Sutton

FDMVP Tier 2: Jameis Winston, Nick Chubb, Jerry Jeudy

FDMVP Tier 3: David Njoku, Javonte Williams

DraftKings

DraftKings CPT Tier 1: Bo Nix, Courtland Sutton, Nick Chubb

DK CPT Tier 2:  Jameis Winston, David Njoku, Jerry Jeudy

DK CPT Tier 3: Javonte Williams, Devaughn Vele,

DK CPT Punt: Jerome Ford, Broncos D

Best Rules for the slate:

  • The weather looks to be nice for a December night game in Denver. Decent temps and low winds could lead to a happy passing attack.
  • I don’t always lock in the top salaried player at CPT, but the Browns pass D is so bad that we have to lock in Sutton as our preferred top scoring player tonight. Reminds me of Mixon against the Cowboys a few weeks ago on MNF.
  • If the game script presents itself, I do like the Browns passing game tonight. Playing Nix and Sutton then mixing in Winston, plus 2 receivers and then potentially a cheap RB (Ford, McLaughlin) is one of my preferred ways to go.
  • The Denver running game is a mystery. But I still prefer Javonte Williams over the other options. McLaughlin is my second favorite based on his recent uptick in snaps and touches.
  • Devaughn Vele is an impressive rookie. I will play him tonight and would be afraid to put him in a lineup with Sutton.
  • Jerry Jeudy has been playing well with Winston at QB. And he has some revenge on his mind as the Broncos traded him away.
  • Winston can give the ball away at a high rate. Denver’s D is in play. At a 42-point total, their D could even be considered in CPT spot.
  • Consider a kicker with the team you have more players on. If someone gets down, they will avoid kicking FG’s.
  • Keep an eye on Jamari Thrash. He likely gets a start tonight as Cedrick Tillman is out with a concussion.
  • As far as cheaper options in the Denver passing game, I prefer Mims to Franklin. He’s a deep threat that they should give one downfield chance to.
  • Jerome Ford could be a hero of this slate if the Browns are down and have to pass almost every down.

Favorite prop for the game: Jerome Ford over 1.5 receptions (-165 BetMGM)

Now that you finished reading the MONDAY NIGHT SHOWDOWN article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

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Sunday’s Best NFL DFS Core Plays: GPP Building Blocks – Week 13

David Jones
written by David Jones

Welcome to my NFL Daily Fantasy Sports guide for this Sunday’s games! In this article, I’ll walk you through my strategic approach for selecting top players and crafting optimal lineups to give you a winning edge in NFL DFS for 2024. I’ve thoroughly analyzed each game and position to highlight the best plays and explain the reasoning behind my selections.

*I’ll be updating this article on Sunday morning if there are any changes. Be sure to check back for the most current and accurate DFS plays

Sunday Updates

Adding Chase Brown to RBs

Adding Even Engram to tight ends

Quarterback Rankings

  • Matthew Stafford: favorite mid-tier GPP QB; see Ram’s receiver paragraph
  • C.J. Stroud: 5% owned and love Collins and Dell
  • Jalen Hurts: The Ravens’ pass D is terrible and might have Smith back. I am seeing 3% owned right now. That can’t be right, can it?
  • Justin Herbert: He could easily lead the league in passing attempts
  • Baker Mayfield: 3% owned vs the Carolina Panthers

Running Backs

Los Angeles Chargers 

Is Gus Edwards explosive? Nope. Is he $4,300 on DraftKings? Yep. He will be the main beneficiary (aside from the Chargers pass catchers) with J.K. Dobbins being ruled out against the Atlanta Falcons. The Dirty Birds aren’t great at stopping the run, and all Edwards has to do is not much at all. I am not sure he even has to score at that price tag. His low salary allows you to fit a starting RB and jam in a ton of studs. We saw someone take down the Milly maker just two weeks ago with Audric Estime at a similar salary when he technically had a “dud” game. If Edwards scores, you will have to have him. The Falcons allow 22 fantasy points per game to the position while allowing only three rushing TDs and three receiving TDs to running backs. 

Rookie Kimani Vidal also has my attention. I expect him to be the pass-catching back, not Hassan Haskins. The Chargers coaching staff have been teasing a larger role for the Marietta, GA native against the Atlanta Falcons in the press this week. If the Falcons can get a lead early, we could see more Vidal in the second half in somewhat of a two-minute drill roll. Vidal was the main beneficiary when Gus Edwards was out earlier in the season. He would get a handful of touches a game and also caught a 30-yard TD pass from Herbert. He costs $4,000 on DraftKings and should be used in Milly Maker formats only. 

Jonathan Taylor

In Week 12, the New England Patriots were the worst team defending the run (32nd) via DVOA. On the season, they are ranked 30th in DVOA against the run. They are allowing 24 fantasy points per game and 15 total touchdowns (rushing and passing) to the position in just 12 games. With arguably the Colts WR1 (Josh Downs) out, perhaps there will be more focus on running the ball, although I can not say that has been the case in the past. Look for Taylor to bounce back from just 11 carries in a terrible game script last week and get closer to 20 this week. 

Bucky Irving or Rachaad White note

Everyone knows the Panthers are the team to target with running backs (and every skill position), so I don’t think I have to clarify at this point in the season. I certainly get the appeal of rostering one of the two main Bucs RBs. Bucky Irving had the better fantasy day last week, largely due to him catching 6 of 6 passes from Baker Mayfield and also scoring. Both he and White got 12 rushing touches. Irving is the more explosive back, yet White has scored 6 times in the past 5 weeks. The issue you run into when rostering the Bucs RBs is that they are all involved, all can score, yet none of them get the volume to rely on with consistency. Irving is best suited for cash games, while White could be worth a stab in GPPs. 

Alvin Kamara

If you are fading Taysom Hill, you should certainly highly consider Alvin Kamara in what could be a shootout game. Kamara is game script proof (unless Taysom Hill drops 40 again). He will run the ball more than Hill; he almost always out targets him. The only issue is he takes up a premium RB spot. That said, I don’t love many RBs this week. 

Derrick Henry

No one is playing King Henry this week. The Eagles have been pretty shut down against receivers lately so I do not have that much interest in Lamar Jackson or his pass catchers. These are the games Henry was brought to the Ravens for. While the Eagles have been good against the run, they are not better than Henry with a full head of steam. He needs to find open space, or the goal line one time to get in the endzone and stack up 100+ yards. 

Others to consider:

  • Joe Mixon: If I didn’t have a piece of the Houston pass attack, I would prioritize getting Joe Mixon. The Jaguars allow the second most fantasy points to RBs on the season while allowing 15 total TDs (rushing and receiving). 

Wide Receiver 

Cooper Kupp and the Los Angeles Rams

Last week, I targeted the Bears with Sam Darnold and the Vikings’ pass attack. Besides his highest-priced option, Justin Jefferson, Darnold exceeded value and supported all of his pass catchers (tight end included). I made the point that the Bears corners gave the first and second most YPRC on the slate, and their primary matchups were Jordan Addison and Jalen Nailor, both of which scored touchdowns. This week, the two worst corners on the slate that give up the first and second most YPRC are on the Saints. Their primary matchups are Cooper Kupp and Demarcus Robinson. To be transparent about how the Rams run their offense, Kupp, Robinson, and Nacua move all over the field, so pivoting to Nacua, from Robison, isn’t “bad.” Both Kupp and Nacua have the first and second-highest target percentage on the slate. The highest targeted corner on the entire slate is Ugo Amadi, who covers the slot almost exclusively. Cooper Kupp runs 67% of his routes out of the slot. This is an amazing matchup for Kupp, and you can be damn sure that Matt Stafford knows it. I will be making plenty of Rams stacks this week with a low-owned Matthew Stafford. 

Tank Dell and Nico Collins

Nico Collins has the highest target percentage receiver on the slate besides the Rams duo of Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. He takes on a Jaguars team that is dead last in DVOA against receivers. They are ranked 13th against the WR1 (Nico Collins) and dead last against the WR2 (Tank Dell). Dell is a Daytona Beach native. I happen to remember that last time he played there, he called it a “friends and family game.” He went on to put up 145 yards and a TD, although a chunk of it came on a broken coverage play. 

Ladd McConkey

Justin Herbert is playing the best football of his career, and the Chargers run game is questionable, with J.K. Dobbins hitting IR. McConkey is by far the best pass catcher Herbert has. He leads the team in target % (21.4%) and yards per route run. He runs 73% of his routes out of the slot, which will directly avoid A.J. Terrell. His salary of $6,100 is fair for a guy who could easily see ten targets. 

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine

He has 6 TDs in the past 7 weeks and is still only $4,300 on DraftKings. He will see plenty of Benjamin St-Juste, who is allowing a bottom 10 YPRC on the slate. Washington’s defense is improved, but they still ranked 30th against the WR1 (Calvin Ridley) and 21st against the WR2 (NWI). 

Best Pivot: Calvin Ridley 

Mike Evans

I played him last week with nearly no ownership, and if the Buccaneers hadn’t blown out the Giants so badly, I feel very confident he would have had a big week. The Tampa run game should once again be able to enforce their will against the Panthers, but $6,700 for such an elite talent like Mike Evans is too hard to ignore. I will have plenty in GPPs and have zero issues playing him in a main lineup if you fade the other Tampa skill players. 

AJ Brown Note

If Smith is out, he and Dallas Goedert will be difficult to ignore. Brown has the highest YPRR on the slate, taking on a terrible Ravens secondary.

Other Good Options:

  • Calvin Ridley
  • Terry McLaurin
  • Drake London
  • George Pickens
  • Michael Pittman
  • Marvin Harrison Jr. 
  • Zay Flowers
  • Brian Thomas Jr. 
  • Alec Pierce

Favorite Values

  • Adonai Mitchell
  • Marquez Valdez-Scantling
  • David Moore: Hard to ignore coming off ten targets at $3,500 for a team that will likely be trailing and doesn’t have a tight end

Tight End 

Taysom Hill

His price shot way up, but you are still playing Superflex but rostering a QB/RB/WR/TE at the most unreliable position on the slate. Saint’s OC, Klint Kubiak, was quoted as saying, “We are ready for Taysom Hill to play every play of the game” when asked about his plans with Hill going forward. This is just coach speak, but also somewhat encouraging with all the injuries the Saints have had to persevere through. Last week, Hill played a season-high 55% of snaps while running the ball 7 times and catching 8 of 10 targets. I would play the rushing attempts alone at the TE position. If you fade Hill, the best pivot is Alvin Kamara. He is also a guy who can get ten targets a game while also being used as a RB1. The issue is he is $2,700 more and takes up an RB spot. 

TJ Hockenson 

Great call out last week on the WinDaily livestream that more production should be headed Hockenson’s way with Josh Oliver being ruled out.  Oliver had taken 56% of snaps the previous week, while Hockenson had 48% in his third game back. Last week, we saw Hockenson shoot up to 68% while Johnny Mundt picked up the slack behind him. The Cardinals have been solid against the TE, only allowing a single receiving TD this season, but I still like the salary of Hockenson ($4,400 DK) coming off a 7-reception game. It is also worth noting Justin Jefferson was covered up last week, so Sam Darnold had to find somewhere else to throw the ball. 

Dallas Goedert

I like him regardless of DeVonta Smith’s plays, but he gets better if the receiver is out. The Ravens ranked 23rd in DVOA against the TE, and more passes should be funneled his way if Smith is out. 

Others to consider:

  • Mark Andrews: $3,900 is too cheap
  • Will Dissly 
  • The Pittsburgh tight ends are in a good spot, but Pat Freiermuth and Darnell Washington are splitting snaps. It is hard to pin down. You can consider in large field GPP if multi-entering. 

Again, I will update this article if anything changes. Be sure to come back and check for the most up-to-date plays. 

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NFL Bets & Survivor Pool Picks for 2024 Week Thirteen

Dave Gloeckner
written by Dave Gloeckner

We had a solid 3-1 week in our plays in last week’s article. The Colts let us down, but we were able to fade the Lions on Turkey Day to get our revenge. Speaking of that game, in my opinion that last play by the Bears is as much on the QB as it is on the coach. But it’s easier to fire the coach so I totally get what Chicago did on Friday. But looking forward here, we still have a healthy set of games to choose from and we’ll look to keep our streak going and finally climb over the hurdle that’s been so tough for us, that is 0.500.

As for Survivor, the Commanders were a ticking time bomb. We’re seeing their flaws and now they are fighting for their playoff lives.

NFL BETS WEEK 13 (2024 SEASON RECORD: 28-30-1, article plus discord game bets)

NEW YORK JETS +1 vs SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

I realize the Jets are the laughing stock of the league right now. Well, maybe the 2nd most laughable team behind their city partners in the Giants. But take it from someone who has been betting the Seahawks, this is a prime spot for New York to play spoilers. Seattle has struggled to score of late, managing just 36 points in the past 2 week. But coincidentally, they’ve won both of those games by limiting their opponents to 23 points. Some of that has been better play, but the other has been some fortune too as they’ve been outgained in those contests.

But the two wins have propelled them to 1st place in the NFC West and their stock is rising. The Jets were last on the field suffering a brutal defeat to the Indianapolis Colts by a score of 28-27. They’ve now had a week off, but people just remember the bad and their stock is at a low point. Which attracts me to the loveable losers. The money is pouring in on Seattle at an 82% clip. It just looks too easy. And when that’s the case, we zag and fade the money.

ARIZONA CARDINALS +3.5 at MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Speaking of another NFC West team, we bring you the Arizona Cardinals who are a confounding team. Riding a 4-game winning streak, the Cardinals laid an egg last week in Seattle scoring just 6 points. And that was coming off a BYE! On the other side, Minnesota is returning home for the first time in 4 weeks. They won all three road games, but struggled to do so winning the three by a combined 18 points. And their competition wasn’t necessarily the cream of the crop as Jacksonville, Tennessee and Chicago have a combined record 9-25.

The factor I’m looking at in this one is Minnesota versus good offenses. Versus teams in the top half of the NFL in offense according to DVOA, the Vikings are 1-2 SU. The Cardinals rank 11th overall in DVOA and averaged 342 yards/game (14th). I think the Cardinals can erase their poor game in Seattle by putting up points in Minnesota and creating turnovers from Sam Darnold, who has 10 INT’s on the season.

CAROLINA PANTHERS +6 vs TAMPA BAY BUCS

The Panthers have shown an increased ability to compete since reinserting QB Bryce Young back into the starting role. They almost pulled off a miracle last week against Kansas City. In fact, they’ve covered three straight games and won 2 of those. While Tampa looked good last week, their defense is not good enough to lay a big number. They play much better as a dog as they’ve lost 3 games outright as a favorite this season.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS +3 at CINCINNATI BENGALS

This is the one game that I’m with the public on. The Bengals pass D is so bad and Pittsburgh has shown an ability to move the ball through the air with Russell Wilson at QB. They will turn those dreaded FG’s to TD’s this week which gives me confidence in this bet. The Bengals are turning into the Chargers and finding ways to lose. I have a bad feeling they’ll do that again this week against a team that finds ways to win.

BONUS DISCORD BET (Posted by 12pm on Sunday): TBD

SURVIVOR PICK

DENVER BRONCOS

I hate going against my boy Jameis, but the Broncos present so many issues and I don’t think Cleveland has enough to overcome those. The snow was an equalizer from the Browns against the Steelers. They won their Super Bowl. But now back to reality and I see the Broncos rolling in this one.

Now that you finished reading the NFL BETS & SURVIVOR POOL PICKS article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

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NFL Game-by-Game Breakdown for Week 13

Joe DiCarlo
written by Joe DiCarlo

We are back once again for another breakdown of every game on the main slate for your DFS appetite, where last week brought you some juicy plays like Luke Schoonmaker and Bucky Irving who both produced six times their values. We hope you have enjoyed your Thanksgiving, so put the leftovers to the side and enjoy my take on this ten-game slate. The season is beginning to wind down, but plenty of money remains to be made!

Stay tuned for all our injury news, updates, and Discord-building advice. Also, check out our Optimizer and Projection Models to get the best possible performance from your lineups. Also, check back into the article during the week as we approach kickoff for more content, as more game breakdowns will be available as we approach the Sunday Slate.

Sunday Main Slate 12/1/24

Seahawks @ Jets (+2) (O/U 41.5)

We kick off the slate in Jersey as the first-place NFC West Seahawks take on the well-rested 3-8 Jets. Seattle will need a win to gain some breathing room from Arizona and LA in the division while New York will be playing to save face from a very disappointing season.

Geno Smith will return to face the team that drafted him back in 2013 and later kicked him to the curb after just four years. Now a seasoned veteran, Smith will lead a healthy arsenal of DK Metcalf and Jaxson Smith-Njigba, along with stud running back Kenneth Walker, into the swamp, lands against a solid Jets’ secondary that’s ranked second in the league. New York does allow over 130 yards per game on the ground, making Kenneth Walker the safest play at $7K on DraftKings.

The season is a wrap for New York and will aim to end it on a high note as it comes to a close. Seattle’s pass defense is mid-tier, but against the run, they also allow over 130 yards per game. We should see plenty of Breece Hall, if he can shake his knee soreness, exploiting the Seahawks’ lack of defending the run. However, Aaron Rodgers will also look to get the ball to Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams, who each average double-digit targets per game.

Cash: Kenneth Walker, Breece Hall

GPP: Geno Smith, DK Metcalf, Garrett Wilson, Davante Adams

Texans @ Jaguars (+5) (O/U 43.5)

We have an AFC South matchup between the first and last-place teams as the Texans take on the Jags. A well-rested Jacksonville team returning from a bye week will host a very volatile and talented Houston offense. The Texans have lost two of their last three contests, but averaged 28 points per game over that span, which we’ll take for DFS. Jacksonville’s season is toast and is also looking to play spoiler for the remainder of the year with their 2-9 record.

Houston came up short against Tennessee but will have the perfect bounce-back spot in Jacksonville. They’re dead last In passing yards allowed and DVOA to opposing quarterbacks and wide receivers while also allowing the sixth most rushing yards per game (135.5). CJ Stroud has not surpassed 20 fantasy points since Week 5, making him a risk, but his teammates will be pretty trustworthy against this dumpster-fire defense. Joe Mixon, Nico Collins, Tank Dell, and even tight end Dalton Schultz (25th in DVOA to opposing tight ends) could eat this week.

Head Coach Doug Pederson is playing his final games in Jacksonville most likely, but will be getting his quarterback Trevor Lawrence back from a shoulder injury this weekend. Lawrence hasn’t played since Week 9 where he’s scored back-to-back 20-plus fantasy point performances, in hopes to pick up where he left off. In the mid $5K range Lawrence is tempting this week along with top target Jags receiver Brian Thomas Jr. who averaged well over 15 FPTS, per game with Trevor under center. Both make great GPP choices along with tight end Evan Engram.

Cash: Joe Mixon, Nico Collins

GPP: Trevor Lawrence, Brian Thomas, Dalton Schultz, Tank Dell, Evan Engram

Titans @ Commanders (-5.5) (O/U 44.5)

The Titans enter Washington coming off an upset win and will look to strike twice against the Commanders. Washington will be ready for blood, as they failed to secure the win against Dallas last week mainly to their special teams and kicker. The total is decent at a near 45 to give us enough faith for fantasy, so let’s dive into this matchup.

Will Levis stepped it up a notch in Week 12’s win in Houston averaging over 75% of his passes to be caught, a stat that could not have been met without the solid running of Tony Pollard. Good things happen when he is on the field for the Titans, as he totaled 129 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown with a 96% snap share. Calvin Ridley and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine round up the receiver core, who has caught a touchdown in six of his last seven games. The Commanders have stepped it up defensively, so keep the Titans in GPPs.

The Commanders will see a defense that allows the fifth most points per game, a stat that Jayden Daniels is licking his chops for after suffering that heart-wrenching loss last week. However, their backfield will be compromised after Austin Ekeler is hospitalized after last week’s concussion, and Brian Robinson suffers a hamstring injury. Keep an eye on reports up until Sunday, as we may have a nice bargain at running back for DFS with Jeremy McNichols ($5,400 on DK) if Robinson and Ekeler are out. Terry McLaurin, Zach Ertz, and Noah Brown also see a bump in projections if both backs end up out.

Cash: Jayden Daniels, Tony Pollard

GPP: Calvin Ridley, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Terry Mclaurin, Noah Brown, Zach Ertz, Jeremy McNicohls ( if Ekeler and Robinson are out)

Steelers @ Bengals (-3) (U/O 47.5)

Another divisional matchup will happen in the AFC North in Cincinnati between the Bengals and Steelers, and the total is near 50. This is mainly because of Cincinnati’s lack of defense and an enormous amount of offense, a team that has scored at will but continues to lose games. It’s a matchup that will invite most of the field, and rightfully so. The Bengals are not mathematically out of the playoffs yet. It’s go time or go home for the postseason in Cincinnati, but the Steelers are no walk in the park to score on, let’s look into it.

Pittsburgh leads the division by a thread and will look to hold onto it against a Bengals defense that is ranked 28th in the league. Although the Steelers’ ground-and-pound style of offense is led by Russell Wilson who is a shell of his former self, he has not been able to take advantage of great matchups this season. All of his weapons are useable on the slate, especially George Pickens, who will draw coverage from Cam Taylor-Britt. Britt has allowed a hefty 48 catches on an 18% target rate for nearly 700 yards and six touchdowns.

Joe Burrow has been lighting the turf on fire this season and leads the league in passing touchdowns with 27. But the window is beginning to close on the playoffs, and Burrow will see the fourth overall-ranked defense so the pressure will be on. However, I can’t stomach fading this offense at full strength, no matter what defense they go up against. Vegas gave this a 48-point total for a reason, so get them Bengals in your lineups.

Cash: Joe Burrow, George Pickens, Ja’Marr Chase

GPP: Tee Higgins, Chase Brown, Najee Harris, Jaylen Warren, Pat Friermuth

Cardinals @ Vikings (-3.5) (O/U 45)

The first-place Cardinals fly into Minnesota and will look to redeem themselves after a lackluster performance in Seattle last week. However, the Vikings may have something to prove as well, as they try to keep their head above water in the NFC North. A mid-range total here with only a little over a three-point spread is a good enough reason to gather pieces of this game for DFS,

Only two field goals were put up on the scoreboard for Arizona last weekend, a game that ruined the day for fantasy managers other than Trey McBride’s 12-catch, 133-yard performance. But expect the Cardinals to step it up a notch this weekend against a Minnesota 28th-ranked pass defense in a weatherproof atmosphere game. Although Minnesota is stout against the run (74 yards per game), James Conner is always a factor in the passing game for Arizona along with Trey McBride, Marvin Harrison Jr., and Michael Wilson.

The Vikings will try to keep the ball rolling after their overtime win against Chicago last week and stay within striking distance of the 11-1 Lions. Arizona is mid-tier in overall defense, allowing 121 yards rushing and 218 yards passing per game, but hold their opponents to just over 20 points per game. Justin Jefferson fell short last week, especially due to some bad officiating. Run it back this week with one of the best in the business as head coach Kevin O’Connell will free up Jefferson on routes away from Sean Murphy-Bunting. When he is shadowed, TJ Hockenson, Aaron Jones, and Jordan Addison make really nice comps for Sam Darnold. A quiet Justin Jefferson makes a nice under-the-radar play for tournaments this week.

Cash: Justin Jefferson, Aaron Jones, Trey McBride

GPP: James Conner, Kyler Murray, Jordan Addison, TJ Hockenson, Marvin Harrison Jr.

Chargers @ Falcons (+2.5) (O/U 48)

Next, LA travels to Atlanta looking to square up after getting their rear ends handed to them by Baltimore on Monday Night. They played efficiently, but it was not enough to take out the Ravens, The Falcons will be very well rested at home after a bye week and will have other plans as they sit on top of the NFC South. LA will be without JK Dobbins for some time, so expect the Chargers to lean more on Justin Herbert, hence the 48 total. Another game on the slate indoors too, gotta love it for DFS.

With Dobbins due to miss a few games, the offense may flip the run-heavy script over to Justin Herbert’s cannon. Backup running back Gus Edwards has been a plodder so far this year while Rookie Kimani Vidal has not yet received enough reps to see much of the field, yet both are cheap for DFS. Justin Herbert along with his complementary receivers will have a nice matchup against the zone-heavy Falcon secondary that ranks 26th in the league in passing with 21 touchdowns through the air. The Chargers offer some decent value as well, with Lad McConkey being the most expensive at only $6,100 on DraftKings.

Atlanta is heavily weaponized, but will they be able to replicate what Baltimore did this past Monday night and put up points on the number-one-ranked defense? Anything is possible, as for DFS the only lock stock Falcon is Bijan Robinson. He’s an elite talent that can go off at any given play on the field. Everyone else is risky for Atlanta, but if I were to roll the dice on somebody it would be Kyle Pitts. Tight end Mark Andrews had a solid game (5REC/44YDS/1TD), Pitts should see the same looks if LA continues to show blitzes on Sunday.

Cash: Bijan Robinson, Justin Herbert

GPP: Drake London, Kyle Pitts, Will Dissly, Lad McConkey, Gus Edwards, Kimani Vidal, Quentin Johnson

Colts @ Patriots (+2.5) (O/U 42.5)

Here we get a matchup between two teams trying to end their seasons on a high note as the Patriots will host the Colts on a cold and windy day in the NorthEast. Vegas does not see much scoring in this one, but for fantasy, I see some value here at all the positions. Let’s take a gander at who is playing in Foxboro that we can use for DFS.

Indy bleeds yardage up and down the field and they’re not picky on how you decide to move the chains. The Colts allow well over 140 yards per game rushing and average around 233 yards allowed passing, so Drake Maye and Rhamondre Stevenson are nice pieces to use at the mid-range salary. Tight end Hunter Henry is locked on the field averaging over 80% of the snaps, so he will be fine at his price of $4,200 on DraftKings. All are fine for tournaments except Henry, who can be used for cash.

Indy’s prospect Anthony Richardson has been hot and cold all season when he is healthy, and I feel this week the former Gator will feel the chill on the field. Josh Downs his top receiver has already been ruled out, and the Patriots have been pretty consistent in clogging up the middle. My advice in this spot is to pay down for the Patriots’ defense at $2,500 on DraftKings and consider the low price tag of Adonai Mitchell at $3,900 on DK as he will see more reps with the lineup missing Downs and Alec Pierce questionable.

Cash: Hunter Henry, Pats DST

GPP: Drake Maye, Rhamondre Stevenson, Adonai Mitchell

Bucs @ Panthers (+6) (O/U 46)

On to the late afternoon slate, as we’ll get the pleasure of beating up on the Panthers for DFS by rostering some of the Bucs. Carolina playing for pride, has also shown some glimpses of getting better moving the football and getting some stops on defense. But the Bucs are on a mission to return to the playoffs and it will be all business for Baker and company. Let’s sink our teeth into this game.

I hate to sound like a broken record, but yes we like to pick on Carolina in DFS as they remain the overall dead-last ranked defense in the NFL. Baker Mayfield, Mike Evans, Cade Otton, and the Bucs’ backfield are all trending up this weekend and should see plenty of ownership. All safe for cash and tournaments, in my opinion, fire away at Carolina.

As I mentioned above, the Panthers are slowly turning the corner on offense, so for tournaments, I will be in on a few fellas, especially in tournaments. If you are looking at all the shiny toys in the Ravens/Eagles game coming up, here is your spot to gather some value. Tampa continues to struggle to defend the pass, ranking 27th and 29th in yardage and touchdowns allowed. I will fire one round using Bryce Young under $5K on DraftKings, along with Legette and Adam Thielen. If you’re really in dire straits for extra salary, Tommy Tremble will get the lion’s share of snaps at tight end filling in for the injured Sanders, and he’s only $2,800 on DK.

Cash: Baker Mayfield, Bucky Irving, Mike Evans, Cade Otton

GPP: Rachaad White, Tre Tucker, Adam Thielen, Bryce Young, Xavier Legette

Rams @ Saints (+2.5) (O/U 49)

Next, we have an under-the-radar possible shoot-out in the Big Easy as the Rams take on the Saints. LA is still recovering from Saquon Barkley’s explosion they witnessed at home while New Orleans should be well rested as they return from a bye week. We’ll see plenty of familiar faces with high price tags in this matchup, and I feel stacking this game and pivoting away from the Eagles and Ravens could get you more bang for your buck this week, here’s why…

Terrible defenses, excellent offenses, and indoors. The big three factors for DFS, so get in on this game to make some green screens. New Orleans ranks 28th against the pass to the heavy passing offense of the Rams, while LA is the third worst rushing defense in the league (see Saquon Barkley) to a Saints team that loves to ground and pound. In a Vegas total of 49 with under a three-point spread, we have to be interested in players. Get in your fill from both sides for cash or GPPs.

Cash: Puka Nacua, Alvin Kamara, Matt Stafford

GPP: Taysom Hill, Cooper Kupp, Kyren Williams, Marquez Valdez-Scantling

Eagles @ Ravens (-3) (O/U 50.5)

And without further delay, the Main Event of the slate is here. Jalen Hurts and the Eagles head onto I-95 to take on Lamar Jackson and the Ravens in one of the most highly anticipated matchups of the year. This will be the first time these elite quarterbacks will line up across from each other from the sidelines, and it’s about time. Playoff positioning and bragging rights are on the line, so let’s finish up the breakdown.

Their offense is number two in the league, but the Ravens’ defense has been awful, mainly in pass coverage. It will be all hands on deck to stop the Philadelphia one-two punch of Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts, especially without veteran OLB Kyle Van Noy who will be out with a hamstring. Eagles OC Kellen Moore will plan to attack this 31st in DVOA Ravens’ secondary through the air since Baltimore only yields 78 yards per game on the ground. Hurts, Brown, Goedert, and DeVonta Smith if healthy will all be cash plays, as Saquon Barkley will move to tournaments only.

Baltimore will have a tough matchup on paper as the Eagles rank third in pass coverage and seventh in rushing defense, but playing inferior opponents in the NFC East may have those stats inflated a bit. The duo of Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry has been an anomaly in the league to stop, and until I see someone pump the brakes on this offense, It’s wheels up in Baltimore. The number two-ranked offense in the league has already rushed for well over 2,000 yards with 17 rushing touchdowns. Start your Ravens in DFS for cash or tournaments and sleep like a baby tonight, we’re in for some great football tomorrow afternoon.

Cash: Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, AJ Brown, Dallas Goedert, DeVonta Smith (if healthy)

GPP: Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, Mark Andrews, Zay Flowers, Rashod Bateman, Justice Hill

Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game-by-Game Breakdown for Week 13! Remember to check back daily for more updates and content until kickoff. You can reach me on X @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord, tag me @DiCarlo78, for any lineup build opinions or questions. I’m always here to help! Gain access to our projection models and jump into our Discord, where our experts and I will talk about plays across every sport 24/7/365!

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NFL DFS: Thanksgiving Edition

DFSGhost
written by DFSGhost

As we gear up for Week 13 of the NFL season, one of the best DFS slates of the year has arrived: Thanksgiving. Despite three games being much less than a traditional Sunday, the player pool is filled with enticing options at each position.

Be sure to use our proprietary NFL projections to build your lineups as the news rolls in. Moreover, join the conversation in the Win Daily Discord to get the insight you need from both subscribers and staff.

Quarterbacks

Jared Goff ($6,500 DK / $8,200 FD)

Pacing the NFL with a whopping 32.7 points per game, Jared Goff has led this Lions offense to new heights this season. Surrounded by a plethora of talent at every position, Goff has entered Most Valuable Player conversations amongst the league’s best. Playing behind a stout offensive line that has only allowed 22 sacks through 11 games, Goff ranks fourth in protection rate amongst qualified quarterbacks, leading to the most efficient season of his career. Goff ranks first in yards per attempt, second in completion percentage, second in deep ball completion percentage, and third in red zone completion percentage. In a matchup against a Chicago Bears defense that has a mere 21.8% blitz rate and the third highest average depth of target allowed, Goff and the Lions offense are poised to have a big day.

Tua Tagovailoa ($6,000 DK / $8,000 FD)

Despite missing half of Miami’s games thus far through 12 weeks, Tua Tagovailoa has been having quite the season. Having won three in a row, Tagovailoa has led the Dolphins back into the playoff hunt. While the matchup is far from appealing on paper with the Packers ranked 4th DVOA against the pass and the cold weather conditions, Tagovailoa’s ceiling is as high as any quarterback on this NFL slate. While the Packers don’t do anything exceptionally well or notably struggle in a particular area, Miami has an edge in player personnel, especially if Jaire Alexander is unable to play.

Thanks to the offensive play-calling of Mike McDaniel and a supporting cast of Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and Devon Achane, Tagovailoa has averaged 255.5 yards per game since returning from injury, throwing for an average of 2.2 touchdowns. Moreover, he has averaged 34 passing attempts per game during that stretch, including a whopping 40 attempts last week, despite winning the game by 19 points. Make no mistake about it – this is one of the premier offenses in the NFL when Tagovailoa is under center. In their last three games, Miami is 3-0 and have averaged 30.33 points per game, while averaging 27.5 points per game in the six full games from their starting quarterback, versus 10 points per game with Tyler Huntley, Skylar Thompson, and Tim Boyle under center. Expect Tagovailoa to get the ball out to his playmakers early and often.

Honorable Mentions: Jordan Love, Caleb Williams

Running Backs

Devon Achane ($7,700 DK / $9,000 FD)

Making his mark with an immediate impact in his rookie season, Devon Achane has quickly become a household name amongst the fantasy football community. Known for his big-play ability and exceptional speed, Achane fits this Miami offense like a glove. Despite the Packers’ defense holding rushing attacks to 4.3 yards per carry, 112.7 rushing yards per game, and 10 touchdowns, it is Achane’s work in the passing game that gives him one of, if not the highest ceiling of any player on the slate. Essentially operating as the Dolphins WR2/WR3 this season, Achane ranks second in target share amongst running backs, third in receiving yards, and second in receptions. Sporting an absurd 44.4% route participation rate, Achane is poised for another big game, where he has posted over 20 fantasy points in four of the last five since Tagovailoa has returned, including four or more targets and three or more receptions during that span.

Jahmyr Gibbs ($7,500 DK / $8,400 FD)

If you are looking for a pivot to Achane at the running back position, look no further than Jahmyr Gibbs. Coming into this one as a 10-point home favorite, the Lions’ running back duo most certainly will be of interest. However, their level of importance on this slate relies upon David Montgomery’s health. At the time of writing, Montgomery was a non-participant in practice, leaving his status for Thursday’s game in question. If Montgomery is eventually ruled out, or is limited in any fashion, Gibbs immediately becomes a top priority.

Although he conceives a sizable amount of work to Montgomery in a shared backfield, Gibbs has made a true impact in the NFL’s best offense, despite the lack of opportunity compared to other teams’ featured running backs. Gibbs has only received 12 or more carries in two of the team’s last five games, while having a mere 51.8% snap share on the season, but he makes the most of the chances he gets. Gibbs sits fourth in the NFL in rushing yards and has 11 total touchdowns, 10 of which came on the ground. Moreover, he is third in yards per carry with 5.8, second in breakaway runs with 14, and first in explosive runs rating.

Josh Jacobs ($7,000 DK / $7,800 FD)

While the majority of the field will prioritize the first two running backs listed here, and rightfully so, Josh Jacobs make for an excellent tournament play. With MarShawn Lloyd struggling with injuries and AJ Dillon on injured reserve since the beginning of the year, Jacobs has gotten all the touches he can handle in his first season with Green Bay. Jacobs has already eclipsed 200 carries on the season, ranking fourth in the NFL. Moreover, the Packers are executing over 30 run plays per game, good for sixth in the NFL. This has led to Jacobs being third in total rush yards, while averaging 4.7 yards per carry and posting eight touchdowns. If you are feeling uneasy about the Packers wide receiver carousel, the weather conditions in this one, or a combination of both, then Jacobs is your guy.

Rico Dowdle ($5,500 DK / $6,100 FD)

While he is unlikely to lead the position in scoring when all three games have finished, Rico Dowdle has a ton of upside in this one. Since their bye week, the Cowboys have essentially turned the keys over to Dowdle over Ezekiel Elliott, and the former has certainly outperformed the latter. Despite the negative game scripts the Cowboys are often in due to Dak Prescott’s season-ending injury, Dowdle continues to make the best of a bad situation. He has now had double-digit carries in four straight games, including three or more targets in each appearance during that span. Moreover, the matchup against a Giants defense that has been decimated on the ground makes for an intriguing conversation surrounding the Cowboys lead running back. On the season, New York has allowed the third-most rushing yards per game, including a league-worst 5.2 yards per carry. While he is not in the same category of the top running backs on this slate, Dowdle can make a case to be the best overall play in the mid range of the pricing grid.

Honorable Mentions: David Montgomery, Tyrone Tracy Jr.

Wide Receivers

Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,000 DK / $9,000 FD)

After a phenomenal season just a year ago, Amon-Ra St. Brown has picked up right where he left off. While there are many skilled players in one of, if not the best offense in the NFL, St. Brown is the heartbeat to it all. Not only does he lead the team in almost every category, but he sits fourth in the league in receptions, eighth in yards, and second in receiving touchdowns. Moreover, he leads the entire NFL with 49 catches resulting in a first down. While Jaylon Johnson has been having an amazing season for the Bears, St. Brown is the clear top option on the slate and is matchup-proof.

Pivot: CeeDee Lamb ($7,300 DK / $8,600 FD)

Jameson Williams ($6,100 DK / $5,700 FD)

If you cannot play St. Brown, there are plenty of other ways to get exposure to the offense with the highest implied team total on the slate. Jameson Williams missed two weeks after being suspended but has not missed a beat since coming back. Across those last three games, Williams has amassed a 12-241-1 line on 18 targets. Moreover, he ranks 4th in the NFL in receiving yards per target, meaning he does not need a ton of looks to be productive. Williams has an average depth of target of 14.1, a 34.5% air yards share, and ranks third amongst qualified wide receivers with 2.57 fantasy points per target.

Pivot: Tyreek Hill ($6,900 DK / $7,800 FD)

Keenan Allen ($5,100 DK / $6,500 FD) and Rome Odunze ($5,000 DK / $5,500 FD)

It is no surprise that the Bears offense has improved in the last two weeks versus the early stages of their season. Following the firing of Shane Waldron, Thomas Brown has taken over offensive coordinator duties for one of the most intriguing offensive depth charts in the NFL. Brown, who spent three seasons under Sean McVay in Los Angeles, has yet to get a win in his new role, but this offense passes the eye test. While all three Bears wide receivers have seen an uptick in volume, most notably Rome Odunze, it is Keenan Allen that is a top option for Caleb Williams in this matchup. After a slow start to the season, Allen came alive last week, posting a 9-86-1 line on 15 targets, operating primarily out of the slot. However, Odunze also ran his fair share of routes out of the slot, slightly behind Allen.

With all three wide receivers seeing over 82% of the snaps in back-to-back weeks, there is plenty of opportunity to pick on a matchup against the Lions’ slot coverage. Amik Robertson is Detroit’s primary slot corner, playing nearly 50% of the snaps and 90% of those out of the slot. This season, Robertson has allowed 1.44 fantasy points per target, including a 59.6% catch rate, leading the Lions to rank 26th in the NFL in fantasy points per game allowed to opposing slot receivers.

Honorable Mentions: Malik Nabers, Jaylen Waddle, DJ Moore, Jayden Reed

Tight Ends

Jonnu Smith ($4,300 DK / $6,300 FD)

While he is far from a top option in an offense boasting the likes of Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and Devon Achane, Smith has been remarkable since Tagovailoa returned from injury. Over his last five games, Smith has three or more receptions in each appearance, having eclipsed 45 yards in four straight games. Moreover, he has a whopping 15 receptions and 188 yards in his last two, where he also caught three touchdowns. With the Packers having a low 20.3% blitz rate, Miami won’t be forced for extra help on their offensive line, leaving room for Smith to run more routes. The Packers rank 10th in DVOA against tight ends, giving up a near 20% target rate and 1.67 yards per route ran.

Sam LaPorta ($4,100 DK / $5,700 FD)

Despite the falloff from a remarkable rookie season, it is hard to blame Sam LaPorta for his personal shortcomings, rather than to look at just how good everyone else in this offense has been. When your offense has two elite running backs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Jameson Williams, you won’t be a top option every single time your team takes the field. However, LaPorta can easily be the highest scoring tight end of the slate, which you’ll need. In Detroit stacks, it will be hard to overlook a player that averages 2.49 fantasy points per target at a scarce position. Moreover, the Bears defense will have their hands full doubling St. Brown on the outside, similarly to how they did to Justin Jefferson last week, leading T.J. Hockenson to explode for seven receptions and 114 yards.

Honorable Mentions: Tucker Kraft, Theo Johnson

DST Rankings

  • Dallas Cowboys ($3,100 DK / $4,100 FD)
  • Detroit Lions ($3,500 DK / $4,700 FD)
  • Green Bay Packers ($2,800 DK / $4,200 FD) and Miami Dolphins ($2,700 DK / $3,900 FD)
  • New York Giants ($2,800 DK / $3,700 FD)
  • Chicago Bears ($2,300 DK / $3,500 FD)
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MONDAY NIGHT SHOWDOWN STRATEGY: BALTIMORE RAVENS at LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

Dave Gloeckner
written by Dave Gloeckner

Week 12 of the NFL season wraps up tonight with Monday Night Football. We have a brotherly affair as the Harbaugh brothers face off for family supremacy. Besides the head coaches stealing the show, these are both very good football teams that are battling for seeding in the AFC Playoffs. As for Win Daily, we’ve had multiple takedowns in the one-game slates, i.e. Showdowns, this year. How many other sites can say that? It’s just proof that the work you put in will produce results! So, let’s keep the hot streak going as we have a good one tonight in a battle between the Ravens and Chargers. Below is my top DFS showdown picks and strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, helping you build winning lineups.

A note about tonight’s game is that we have a low point spread and high total in Baltimore -2.5 and 51 points. That is a perfect recipe for a back and forth game which adds many players into our pool.

For a deeper dive into general showdown rules, make sure to check out David Jones’s “Daily Fantasy Football Showdown: Strategy for Building Winning Lineups” article. It’s essential reading for anyone crafting MME lineups, as player salary and team dynamics can impact each game’s approach.

Link: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/

Note on Quarterbacks:

I will not write up the quarterbacks because the wide receiver and tight end section tend to cover the matchups. The QB rankings are at the bottom of the article. 

BALTIMORE RAVENS

Running Back

Until last night, the Ravens had the NFL’s leading rusher in Derek Henry. But after Saquon Barkley’s massive SNF game, Henry is now in 2nd and a healthy 207 yards away from the Eagles RB. But that doesn’t overshadow the amazing season that Henry is having at age 30. The Ravens RB is averaging 107 yards per game rushing and has scored a TD in all eleven games this season. He’s proving that there is a lot more left in his tank.

As for the Chargers rush D, they allow the 10th least rushing yards per game in the league at 110.5. And heading into Week 12, they allowed the 3rd lowest fantasy points per game to RB’s. But advanced metrics do see some weak points in those stats as PFF ranks the Chargers 12th in rush defense and DVOA has LA at 15th.

One thing to keep an eye on is the Chargers injury report tonight. LB Denzel Perryman is listed as out. And edge rush Khalil Mack is questionable. That leaves the front seven somewhat thin and vulnerable to a viscous running attack like the one Baltimore deploys.

Also in play is Justice Hill. The 2nd string RB for the Ravens saw a 49% snap usage in Week 11 which was tied with Henry. The game script led to that but it is worth noting as Baltimore has sat Henry for long stretches in previous games too.

Tier 1: Derrick Henry

Tier 2: Justice Hill

Punt:

Wide Receiver

The Ravens have the 4th highest run/pass ratio in the NFL. They will still beat you in the air, but their preferred offensive strategy is to beat you with the legs of Henry, Jackson and Hill. And I honestly believe that could be the strategy tonight as the Chargers have a solid pass rush and defense. The Chargers have the 4th highest pass coverage rating in the NFL according to PFF. And DVOA ranks the Chargers as the 6th best pass D. A lot of that is due to DB’s Kristian Fulton and Tarheeb Still who rank in the top 25 in pass defense this season.

Ultimately, the Ravens do have speed at WR and we saw that produce big problems for the Chargers last week against the Bengals. They were beat deep on several occasions and I see the Ravens trying to take those shots tonight too. The main producer is Zay Flowers, and he is fully in play for all slates. But Rashod Bateman has been a consistent #2 and has led the Ravens in target shares in three games this season. He’s also second on the team with 4 TD receptions.

Tier 1: Zay Flowers

Tier 2: Rashod Bateman

Punts: Nelson Agholor (deep threat who could see one to two opportunities)

Tight End

Since Week 4, Mark Andrews has stepped up his game. He’s averaging 3.8 catches and 44.7 yards per game in that stretch. More importantly, he’s scored 5 TD’s in those 7 games. Isaiah Likely is also in play as he returned with a big outing last week in Pittsburgh, hauling in 4 catches for 75 yards.

The Chargers have allowed the 4th least fantasy points to TE’s this year. They shut out Mike Gesicki from the Bengals last week. And they haven’t allowed at TD to TE’s this year.

While we’ll all be tempted to snag a Ravens TE, I am probably going to fade this position for the most part and focus on the running attack and 1-2 WR’s.

Tier 1: Mark Andrews

Tier 2: Isaiah Likely

Punt/Fadeable:

LA CHARGERS

Running Back

The way to attack the Ravens is through the air. Baltimore allows just 77.5 yards per game on the ground which is 2nd best in football. This could be due to their terrible pass D and teams tend not to run (2nd lowest attempts in league). But the advanced metrics also like Baltimore’s run D as they rank 3rd overall in PFF and 6th in DVOA.

The Chargers do have a solid rushing attack but I believe it is closer to a shared backfield than last week’s stats will show. JK Dobbins hardly touched the ball but got to his numbers with a late TD run. Gus Edwards was the back on the field early in the game. And for some idiotic reason, Hasaan Haskins has seen four goal line carries in the past 2 weeks.

I’d tread carefully here against a really good Ravens D. My preferred option is Edwards but I don’t have high confidence in any of them. Even if it is a revenge match.

Tier 1: JK Dobbins, Gus Edwards

Tier 2: Hasaan Haskins

Wide Receiver

As we mentioned earlier, you attack Baltimore through the air. They prefer man-to-man and frankly, they don’t do it well. Teh Ravens allow the most yards passing per game at 284.5. Additionally, they allow the most fantasy points to WR’s.

Ladd McConkey is questionable tonight with a shoulder injury. So we have to keep an eye on that. But Quentin Johnson is the one to keep a tighter eye on. He has 6 TD catches this season and has recorded a touchdown catch in each of the last three games. He’s the deep threat in this offense as he saw eight targets last week.

Tier 1: Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnson

Tier 2: Josh Palmer

Cheap Options: Derius Davis

Tight End

Will Dissly had a huge game last week going for 4 catches and 80 yards against the Bengals. No surprise here, but Baltimore is bad against TE’s too. They’ve allowed the most receiving yards to that position coming into Week 11.

Tier 1: Will Dissly

Tier 2:

FanDuel MVP and DraftKings CPT Picks—FNF Showdown 

I want a high-usage player at MVP on FanDuel like Lamar Jackson, Derek Henry or Justin Herbert. The QB’s look to have the best upside based on the opposing defenses weaknesses. The salaries do not change from flex to MVP on FanDuel, so the value at the MVP is not a priority. Take the points up top. 

On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range. And in this case, that looks to be on the high price range side. I still believe the 2 QB’s are your best options at the CPT spot as well.

FanDuel

FanDuel MVP Tier 1: Derek Henry, Lamar Jackson

FDMVP Tier 2: Justin Herbert, Ladd McConkey

FDMVP Tier 3: Zay Flowers, Quentin Johnson, Will Dissly

DraftKings

DraftKings CPT Tier 1: Derek Henry, Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert

DK CPT Tier 2:  Ladd McConkey, Zay Flowers

DK CPT Tier 3: Quentin Johnson, Will Dissly, Justice Hill

DK CPT Punt: Mark Andrews, Josh Palmer

Best Rules for the slate:

  • The story of this slate is that we have two QB’s who can attack the other defense. I expect a heavy dose of Lamar Jackson running the ball. Also, you may have heard but he’s awesome on Prime Time games.
  • Don’t sleep on Justin Herbert. He faces the worst pass defense in the league. He lit up the Bengals last week who look like the Steel Curtain compared to the Ravens.
  • Derek Henry scores TD’s. And to keep the Chargers pass rush at arms length, I expect the Ravens to use a heavy does of Henry tonight. I LOVE him in all spots but we have to find a way to fit him in with LJack on most lineups.
  • Ladd McConkey is an impressive rookie. If he plays, he’ll be my favorite Chargers WR.
  • Quentin Johnson is seeing the field and a high rate of targets. He has a chance to break the slate.
  • I’m fading the defenses tonight.
  • If you play a 4/2 or 5/1 stack, consider a kicker.
  • Keep an eye on Nelson Agholor. I think the Ravens will take 1-2 deep shots to a cheap option.
  • Justice Hill is a copy cat of Chase Brown. And we saw Brown have a big game last week against LA. If fading Henry, put Hill in your lineup. I don’t like both in the same lineup.

Favorite prop for the game: 

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Sunday’s Best NFL DFS Core Plays: GPP Building Blocks – Week 12

David Jones
written by David Jones

Welcome to my NFL Daily Fantasy Sports guide for this Sunday’s games! In this article, I’ll walk you through my strategic approach for selecting top players and crafting optimal lineups to give you a winning edge in NFL DFS for 2024. I’ve thoroughly analyzed each game and position to highlight the best plays and explain the reasoning behind my selections.

*I’ll be updating this article on Sunday morning if there are any changes. Be sure to check back for the most current and accurate DFS plays

Sunday Updates:

  • Terry McLaurin gains some steam with Trevon Diggs
  • Moving Mike Evans down a bit
  • Play Abdullah if you want. Salary makes sense.

Quarterback Rankings

  • Baker Mayfield
  • Sam Darnold: favorite low-owned, large-field GPP QB. High risk.
  • Bo Nix
  • Drake Maye
  • Tommy DeVito: You don’t need Malik Nabers if you have Tommy DeVito, you need Tommy DeVito if you have Malik Nabers. $4K is hard to say no to. 

Running Backs

Kareem Hunt

Last week, I was high on him, and he busted, but I will go right back in the nuts matchup against the Carolina Panthers. They have allowed a league-most rushing TDs (14) in just ten games. I would have even considered him if Isiah Pacheco was in, but now that he is confirmed, you can feel confident that Hunt exceeds value here. Nothing has changed with the Mahomes passing game. They still don’t have enough reliable bodies to throw it, too, and they won’t need to. The Chiefs are up against a short week (another reason Pacheco is out), so they might as well just run Kareem Hunt into the ground and keep the rest of the guys healthy for the day after the Thanksgiving game against the Raiders. 

Brian Robinson

We just touched on the league’s worst rush defense, but the Cowboys are making a case for it by season’s end. They now allow the second most rushing TDs (13) in just 10 weeks. The teams with the next most rushing TDs allowed (NO, JAX, WAS, CIN) all have played 11 games, and three are not even on the slate. Robinson is priced right next to Kareem Hunt, and they are both clearly in the best spots on the slate. They will be popular af but it makes perfect sense. If you want to get different for ownership’s sake, I would be overweight rather than under. 

Others to consider:

If you want to spend up on CMC or Joe Mixon, I can’t really talk you off of it. 

  • De’Von Achane
  • Kenneth Walker
  • James Conner
  • Tyrone Tracy 
  • Rhamondre Stevenson
  • Bucky Irving
  • Audric Esteme (he still made the Milly Maker winner last week, and if his number is called randomly by Sean Payton this week, then he will do it again)

Wide Receiver 

Mike Evans

The Giants were the worst team against the WR1 in week 11 (that are on the slate). Mike Evans will clearly be the WR1 and, if 100%, could easily break double-digit targets. Todd Bowles said that as long as he is 100% (paraphrasing), he will be out there. The Giants allow the most production in the league to the deep left side of the field. Guess who runs on the left more than any other Buccaneers receiver? Mike Evans. 

Josh Downs

This guy has been on a heater, no matter who the quarterback is. He has been piling up receptions while scoring twice in the past four games. His salary is only $6,200 in a game where the Colts should certainly be trailing the Lions. Due to gamescript, the Lions are the most targeted secondary in the league while also giving up the most receptions. They allow the 4th most fantasy points to receivers (39.8), trailing only the Ravens, Vikings, and Jaguars. Josh Downs has the 4th highest target percentage in the league (for starters) while only being behind Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua, and Malik Nabers. He is ahead of guys like Nico Collins, CeeDee Lamb, and Amon-Ra St. Brown. That is a pretty good case for Downs to get high consideration in your main build. 

Minnesota Vikings Receivers 

Everyone is scared to target the Bears secondary, but they have been slipping a bit lately. Last week, they allowed Christian Watson to get 150 yards while Jordan Love threw for 261 yards and one passing TD. The Bears ranked 30th against the WR2 that week while ranked 10th against the WR1. When you look at the cornerbacks for the Bears, Tyrique Stevenson and Kyler Gordon allow the first and second most yards per route run on the entire slate. That was shocking to see. I know they are both “good” corners, but those numbers are concerning, and I doubt anyone else is pointing this out. Justin Jefferson will see some Jaylon Johnson, but it isn’t a shadow situation. This lines up great for him, as well as for Jordan Addison and Jalen Nailor. Not to mention that Hockenson is back, giving Sam Darnold plenty of options. The Vikings are my sneaky stack of the week in large-field GPPs. 

Adam Thielen

He will get the majority of the slot routes in a game the Panthers will be trailing. I have heard people chattering that the Panthers should run the young receivers to see what they have, which they will, but Thielen will also be highly involved. Bryce Young isn’t worried about showing off the new toys. This guy is worried about keeping his job. The best thing he can do is what has worked before, which is feeding Adam Thielen.

Tyreek Hill 

Patriots stand-out corner Christian Gonzalez is questionable. If he is out, Hill would be in the position to put up a vintage big day. If he is in, I would pump the breaks on Hill just a touch. The Patriots were 26th against the WR1 in Week 11, and Gonzalez being out isn’t going to make that number any better. 

Courtland Sutton

Perhaps the most obvious mispricing of the week.

Note:

Other Good Options:

  • Nico Collins: in contention for the WR1 on the slate, will avoid the slot against the Titans, which they defend better than the outside where Collins operates 
  • Marvin Harrison
  • DK Metcalf > JSN
  • Terry McLaurin 
  • Jayden Reed/Christian Watson – no one knows where it is going to go consistently in Green Bay, but these are the top two options.
  • Jameson Williams 
  • Alec Pierce (leads the slate in Air-Yards)
  • Calvin Ridley (I loved him last week and had TD called back; he will continue to get the targets)
  • Demario Douglas/Kendrick Bourne
  • Sterling Shepard (better if Evans happens to be out; fine large field GPP either way)

Tight End Rankings

Value: Luke Schoonmaker

Sam LaPorta

Ok, $4,300 is way too low for Sam LaPorta. The Colts allow the 6th most fantasy points and 3rd most receptions to the position. The Lions spread it around to everyone and are the highest-scoring offense in the league, putting up 33 points per game. 

Theo Johnson

The Buccaneers have been poor against the Tight End. They are ranked 30th in DVOA against TE. At the same time, allowing the 5th most fantasy points to the position. Johnson comes in at only $2,700 on DraftKings and may benefit from increased check-downs from the Giants QB2. 

  • Brock Bowers
  • Travis Kelce
  • Trey McBride
  • Cade Otton
  • Spann-Ford as a Schoonmaker pivot

Again, I will update this article if anything changes. Be sure to come back and check for the most up-to-date plays. 

 

Again, I will update this article if anything changes. Be sure to come back and check for the most up-to-date plays. 

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