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NFL Bets & Survivor Pool Picks for 2024 Week Sixteen

Dave Gloeckner 5 months ago

written by Dave Gloeckner

Week 15 was good for us as we posted a 3-2 record on our game bets. But yesterday wasn’t good for us in NFL as we went 0-2 backing both road dogs. On the good side, we did go 2-1 in college football yesterday so all wasn’t lost. We’re still hanging tough and staying above the red line, but we’re looking to take a big leap over the next three weeks so we can have a nice little wallet for the playoffs.

Of note, the dogs went 5-11 last week. Which is a reverse split from Week 14 when we saw the dogs rule the day. We have to assess whether this is a sign of things to come down the stretch or whether it was just an anomaly for Vegas.

As for Survivor, if you’re still alive, congrats. We gave out the Eagles last week and they came through. We’re trying to look at teams that you may not have taken yet based on schedule.

NFL BETS WEEK 15 (2024 SEASON RECORD: 39-38-1, game bets only)

NEW YORK GIANTS +9 at ATLANTA FALCONS

The Falcons were the news story of this week as they turned the page on the Kirk Cousins experiment after only 14 games. Atlanta now hands the ball to rookie QB Michael Penix Jr. The former Washington QB was picked in the top 10 of the 2024 NFL Draft and led his team to the College Football Championship Game. He’s uber talented, and has a great set of receivers and backs to throw to in Atlanta.

The reason I’m backing the Giants today is because of the expected ramp up that is typically needed by a rookie QB. Even the great Jayden Daniels lost his first game this year when he played the Bucs. The same can be said for Bo Nix and Drake Maye. The only QB that won his first start this season was Caleb Williams but that was because Will Levis turned the ball over 3 times including a pick 6 to lose the game (Bears trailed 17-0 as well).

Giants are terrible and packing it in. But Atlanta’s defense isn’t strong enough to completely pin down the G-men. Malik Nabers is still an issue and the Giants have found some success on the ground of late. I’ll take the points today, reluctantly.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ers -1 at MIAMI DOLPHINS

Two of the more disappointing teams in the NFL square off today in South Florida. While both seam deflated, I’m backing the 49ers today to show up with some added motivation and play a distraction free game. For one, the incident involving their LB De’Vondre Campbell not wanting to play last week should galvanize this team. They should want to play as together as they had all season to help rid themselves of that noise and build a new foundation for 2025.

As for the Dolphins, Tua turned it over 4 times last week as the pass rush affected him greatly. San Fran still has a solid front and can create havoc along the line. Then there’s this little thing with the coaches as Mike McDonald comes from the Shannahan tree. I’ll take the teacher as the student has not shown up this season.

CAROLINA PANTHERS +5.5 vs ARIZONA CARDINALS

The books, and me, got a little too excited by the Panthers recent play. From being a favorite versus a 5-win team, the Panthers are now a 5+ point dog against a 7-win team. This just feels like a little overreaction here to a bad game. The Cardinals haven’t been lighting it up, losers in three of their last four. And more troubling, they are 2-4 on the road SU this season. Those two wins were both by one point each so their overall point differential in those six games is -36 (they are +44 at home). I’m banking on the Panthers to return to their competitive ways and possibly pull off an outright win today in Carolina.

NEW YORK JETS +3.5 vs LA RAMS

I said I wouldn’t be the Jets again back in Week 13. But I broke that rule last week and it paid off. The reason being, the Jets are now playing with house money. Rodgers had his first 300-yard passing game in years last week. Which just shows they’ve shutout the noise and are just playing football. My concern for the Rams is they are flying across the country, playing an early game, in freezing weather. Remember where Rodgers once played? Yes, cold shouldn’t be a factor. But it could for a QB that’s played his whole career in a dome and LA.

BONUS DISCORD BET (Posted by 12pm on Sunday): Chicago Bears +7.5 (-120)

SURVIVOR PICK

GREEN BAY PACKERS

The Saints are a mess. The Packers aren’t. Do you think the Saints will be up to play in the freezing cold of Green Bay in December just 2 days before Christmas? I don’t.

Now that you finished reading the NFL BETS & SURVIVOR POOL PICKS article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

5 months ago 0 comments

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Sunday’s Best NFL DFS Core Plays: GPP Building Blocks – Week 16

David Jones 5 months ago

written by David Jones

Welcome to my NFL Daily Fantasy Sports guide for this Sunday’s games! In this article, I’ll walk you through my strategic approach for selecting top players and crafting optimal lineups to give you a winning edge in NFL DFS for 2024. I’ve thoroughly analyzed each game and position to highlight the best plays and explain the reasoning behind my selections.

*I’ll be updating this article on Sunday morning Sunday Updates

Quarterback Rankings

Michael Penix Jr.

I am going to be way above the field with Penix Jr. I would expect more of a balanced offense as opposed to just running it 35 times here. If the Falcons wanted to run it down the Giant’s throats they could have easily just let Cousins get another start. What the Falcons want, is a rookie QB to develop confidence going into the final stretch, while they attempt to secure a playoff spot. The Giant’s defense is beat up. They are missing two linebacks and a starting corner. The matchup for his receivers, tight end, and pass-catching backs really couldn’t get much better. At only $4,500 he is basically a lock to exceed value and allows you to do whatever you want with the rest of your roster construction. Reminder last week Mac Jones, at a minimum salary won someone a million dollars, not Josh Allen or Jared Goff, who both went nuclear.

Other GPP options:

Baker Mayfield (FanDuel)
Anthony Richardson
Aaron Rodgers
Brock Purdy
Aiden O’Connell
Dorian Thompson-Robinson: He will throw it a ton, but only 50% will be accurate

Running Backs

Jahmyr Gibbs

There is a combination of good factors that should benefit Gibbs here. First, there is no David Montgomery so we no longer have to guess who is going to get the goal-line work. Second, Jared Goff has worse splits in outdoor cold weather games, so hopefully NFL’s highest-scoring team leans on the run more. Third, it is in fact a good matchup against the Bears (31st in DVOA against the run). They allow the fifth most fantasy points the RB on the season while being tied with the Carolina Panthers for most rushing TDs allowed (15). Gibbs will be on the majority of my GPP lineups and all of my cash game lineups.

Patrick Taylor

If you are looking to save some salary, I do not have an issue with Patrick Taylor. He is down to $5,200 and will be the lead back in the 49ers backfield. I do not think this means he gets 20 rushing attempts, but I don’t think that he gets the most out of any 49er who will run the ball. The Dolphins are a beatable matchup (24^th in DVOA against the run). They have allowed 15 total touchdowns to the running back (12 rushing and 3 receiving), which is just as much as the CHI Bears have allowed. Taylor is a guy who can catch the ball out of the outfield so his scoring on a passing play is just as likely as a rushing play.

Jerome Ford

With Nick Chubb out with a broken foot, Ford is in line to take over the backfield for the Cleveland Browns. He takes on a truly terrible Bengals defense, however, it is almost certain that the Bengals dog-walk the Browns in this one. The only real reason you are interested in Ford is that he can be an asset in the passing game as well. That unfortunately means that we are going to need Dorian Thompson-Robinson to look like a decent NFL quarterback, which could or could not happen. As bad as the Bengals are, I don’t think Ford is closer to bad chalk than good chalk. That being said, it doesn’t mean I am avoiding him in my lineups, it just means I am not starting with him. His salary of $4,800 is very nice, but this is a slate where we are not dying to save salary.

Tyjae Spears (conditional)

If Tony Pollard is out Spears shoot up the rankings as the best-value RB on the slate.

Devin Singletary

If Tyrone Tracy is ruled out Singletary will be the lead back for the New York Giants, who should do their best to lean on the run against a poor Atlanta Defense, while they also try to mask their inadequate quarterback. He is $4,500 and would also be an outstanding value.

Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons, who have one of the better 1-2 RB combos in the NFL, could lean on the run more here with rookie Michael Penix Jr. getting the start at QB against the New York Giants. The Giants are bad both defending the run and the pass, plus they are dealing with significant injuries on the defensive side of the ball. Bijan Robinson has been automatic recently and is a great bet for cash games. Tyler Allgeier is a guy that pops every now and then and don’t hate taking a shot on him in the Milly Maker. Allgeier makes more sense if fading both Robinson and Penix Jr.

De’Von Achane

Remember the days when the DFS industry said the Achane was the second-best pass catcher on the Dolphins? What happened to that? It seems like he is being overlooked against a 49ers team that is particularly good at stopping the run. In terms of fantasy points allowed, they are worse than the Raiders, Bengals, Rams, and Titans. With Jaylen Waddle out, and maybe even Tyreek Hill, perhaps we get a little more out of Achane in the pass It isn’t like Achane really needs more receiving opportunities as he has averaged 8 targets in the last three games while also being the Dolphins RB1. He was everyone’s favorite RB at the beginning of the season and since he hasn’t dropped 20 in a couple weeks people are looking the other direction. He is worth a few shots on your DFS lineups.

Others to consider:

I can’t make a case against any of these guys and will be mixing them in MME.

Saquan Barkley: Outstanding, but you don’t need a write-up to play Barkley if you can fit him
Chase Brown
James Cook
Jonathan Taylor
Aaron Jones

Best Values (High-risk high-reward options)

Craig Reynolds
Ray Davis: If it isn’t Josh Allen or James Cook, it is Ray Davis. He could also get significant blowout run in this one.

Wide Receiver (not in order of preference)

On FanDuel I would make it a point to get to Mike Evans. Jalen McMillian also grades out as having the best primary CB matchup of the week, for any team.

Cooper Kupp

For the second time in his career, Cooper Kupp well held to zero catches in a game last week. Throw that out because that is the outlier, not the new normal. In three of his last four games, he has eclipsed 20 DK points, and that would be plenty here at a salary of only $6,500. Kupp runs primarily out of the slot, meaning he will avoid Sauce Gardner more than Puka Nacua (not that Gardner has been fantastic this season). Kupp still has a massive target share (29.1%), which is still the second-best on the slate, only behind his teammate Nacua. The Jets rank 27th against the WR1 and 18th against the WR2. With the target share of each of these receivers, I do think the terms WR1 and WR2 here are interchangeable.

To be clear, if I have the salary I prefer Nacua, but Kupp is too cheap and you can even double-stack him with Stafford and Nacua.

Seattle Seahawks

I really want a piece of the passing game here. The receivers across the board are underpriced and the matchup is beatable in the last home game of the season for Seattle. Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been thriving and draws the slot matchup against Byron Murphy Jr. The season is almost over and we have seen JSN take over the alpha role so we might as well accept it now. That being said, I am also taking some shots on D.K. Metcalf at $5,500. He has the next best matchup facing off against Shaq Griffin and Stephon Gilmore on the outside. These once elite corners are no longer and can be beaten. This is proven by the Vikings giving up the most fantasy points to wide receivers, per game, on the season (42.8).

Deebo Samuel

MIA is 26^th against the WR1 and 21^st against the WR2.

I don’t care how bad he has been, Deebo is down to $5,200 on DraftKings. The 49ers are not playing for anything, but Samuel is playing to redeem himself and dropping what would have been a walk-in touchdown last week. Samuel moves all over the field, at a pretty even rate, so there are no primary matchups to break down. Miami has been better in the past of late but is still 21^st in DVOA against the position. Samuel will also get some designed runs out of the backfield, perhaps more than normal with the 49ers being down to their depth chart RB5 from the beginning of the season.

Jakobi Meyers

He should be a target monster again with Aidan O’Connell back starting at QB. He and Brock Bowers will get fed through the air, but of course, we need a touchdown out of whoever we start. The Jaguars are traveling from Jacksonville to spend the weekend in Las Vegas while playing for nothing. You do have to wonder how motivated they will be to put their best foot forward. On top of that, they have been terrible against the pass all season long. They are tied for the second most fantasy points allowed per game to the WR position (40.3). We also have O’Connel who is playing for a starting job next season. If we can string together a few impressive outings he may win the job to open next season (given they don’t draft a QB).

The New York Jets

This is the third week in a row I have written up the New York Jets. This is a high game total, against a poor Rams secondary. Last week it was Davante Adams, but this week the best CB matchup goes to Garrett Wilson, who happens to be cheaper. Adams runs slightly more slot routes, while Wilson runs slightly more on the right side of the field. That matches him up with Darius Williams who is the Ram’s worst cover corner based on YPRC (1.20).

Atlanta Falcons

I am not making it a point to get a Falcons receiver, but if you do want to stack up the dirty birds, the matchup on paper makes a ton of sense. The Giants are ranked 30^th against the WR1, 18^th against the WR2, and 31st against the WR3. There is no primary matchup for any Falcons receiver as they all move all over the field while splitting slot snaps. The Giant’s secondary looks terrible. They have two of the bottom five corners on the slate, that allow the most YPRR. Starter Greg Stroman, who will play mostly in the slot, was ruled out. The Giants will also be missing two linebackers.

Amon-Ra St. Brown

The way to attack the Bears is to play the receivers that avoid Jaylon Johnson. This week is St. Brown (53% slot routes) and Tim Patrick. I don’t love playing Goff’s weapons with his poor home/road/outdoor/cold weather splits-but those would be the guys to use if you want a piece of the Lions receivers.

Tyreek Hill

He is currently questionable. If he is in, I love him. The Q tag will keep ownership low, in a game where Jaylen Waddle is already ruled out, at a deflated salary of $6,900. If he is ruled out then you run to get as much Malik Washington as you can. Jonnu Smith and DeVon Achane would also get significantly better.

Others to consider: There are a ton of midrange receivers to like this week.

Ja’Marr Chase: He has the best WR1 matchup on the slate (CLE 31^st against the WR1-you just worry about blowout)
Malik Nabers
Devonta Smith
Josh Downs
Keenan Allen: Honestly all the Bears receivers are underpriced, but Allen popped off against the same team on Thanksgiving, and DET has been hit hard with the injury bug.
Brian Thomas Jr
Tim Patrick
Malik Washington
Jalen Coker

Tight End

Best Spend up: Trey McBride

Best Value: Brenton Strange

The Cleveland Browns

If you know me you know that I will be targetting the Bengals at the tight end position. This week we have a unique opportunity to perhaps get David Njoku as a low-owned spend up (due to his Q tag), or spend down and get his Jordan Akins (who would start if he is out), at only $3,200. The Bengals are the worst team against the TE in the league, and much of that production has been coming lately to average players. They give up 17.1 DK points per game to the position while giving up the second most receptions only behind the Denver Broncos.

Others to consider:

Jonnu Smith
George Kittle
Brock Bowers

Again, I will update this article if anything changes. Be sure to come back and check for the most up-to-date plays.

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NFL Game-by-Game Breakdown for Week 16

Joe DiCarlo 5 months ago

written by Joe DiCarlo

Welcome back to another Main Slate Breakdown as we approach the end of the regular season. We underestimated the skill of Baker Mayfield and Mike Evans against that tough Chargers defense, but still hit on plenty of plays for DFS in our last article. Stone Smartt along with the entire Bills/Lions game was a cashed ticket if you went that route. Let’s get right into Week 16 now, as there’ll be plenty of changes in some of the offenses this week, particularly at quarterback.

Stay tuned for all our injury news, updates, and Discord-building advice. Also, check out our Optimizer and Projection Models to get the best possible performance from your lineups. Also, check back into the article during the week as we approach kickoff for more content, as more game breakdowns will be available as we approach the Sunday Slate.

Sunday Main Slate 12/22/24

Eagles @ Commanders (+3) (O/U 45.5)

We start off with a monster matchup within the NFC East, as the Eagles, who are in first place, will travel to the Capitol to face the Commanders. Both clubs are stacked on each side of the football, so it should be a slugfest in D.C. We’ll want to invest in this game for DFS since it will be all hands on deck for control of the division.

Philly will keep it down to their business as usual in the offense. The volume increased significantly to DeVonta Smith and AJ Brown in targets with the loss of Dallas Goedert to IR, seeing 19 of 23 passing attempts in the game. Bottom line, Head Coach Nick Siriani wants to run the damn ball with Hurts and Barkley (34 Attempts against Pittsburgh). Use these four only for cash games or GPPs.

Jayden Daniels has made a strong case for OROTY as he has completed 75% of his passes in 14 games and ranks second in the league in rushing yards amongst quarterbacks with six rushing touchdowns. However, he’s down to the bare bones at receiver with Terry McLaurin as the last man standing with Zach Ertz suffering a concussion last week. Luke McCaffrey, Dyami Brown, and Olamide Zaccheaus will see some uptick this week if Ertz is out, and Brian Robinson will still own the backfield in a tough matchup (7th best run defense). Ben Sinnott and John Bates will split the reps at tight end also if Ertz misses time, some great GPP options in Washington.

Cash: Jalen Hurts, Jayden Daniels

GPP: Terry McLaurin, AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith, Brian Robinson, and Any other Commanders named above if Ertz is out.

Browns @ Bengals (-7) (O/U 48)

Next, we check in on another division game except this one will be for bragging rights, not playoff contention. These two AFC North clubs have been awful on defense this year, but only the Bengals have the firepower to back it up. Cincinnati will host Cleveland in a DFS algorithm that we adore of when two opposing bottom-of-the-barrel defenses collide. The total is near 50, so let’s dive in.

Joe Burrow continues to light up the scoreboard with Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. The Bengals also have Chase Brown in the backfield who has now established himself as their RB 1, looking like a young Austin Ekeler averaging five catches per game. The Browns’ defense has not as it used to be falling to 26th in the league and averaging 24 points allowed per game. All four Bengals are solid plays this week in your cash or GPP lineups as they sit on top of the NFL in scoring and moving the chains,

Say it ain’t so coach. Cleveland head coach Kevin Stefanski has seen enough of Jameis Winston, benching him for Dorian Thompson-Robinson. This news delivers daggers to our usage of Jerry Jeudy and the rest of the receiving options in Cleveland. DTR will have some rushing upside, however, at $4,800 on DraftKings it may be an option to use him solo against the second-to-last-ranked defense in Cincinnati. Running back Jerome Ford is another Browns guy I’d be willing to pay $5,600 on DK this week, as he’ll get the start with Nick Chubb done for the year. Both are GPP-only starts.

Cash: Ja’Maar Chase, Joe Burrow, Tee Higgins, Chase Brown

GPP: Dorian Thompson-Robinson, Jerome Ford

Rams @ Jets (+3.5) (O/U 46.5)

Here we get an East Coast-West Coast matchup as the Rams travel across the country to square off against the Jets. LA has been on a roll, taking over first place in their division and playing some lights-out football. New York got their first win after losing their last four contests, and will aim to keep the momentum to close out the year.

The Jets’ defense is falling apart at the seams, allowing Mac Jones and the Jaguars to put up 25 points in a game that went down to the final plays. Matt Stafford will be chomping at the bit to fire away this Sunday against this secondary, and Kyren Williams could be leaving his tread marks all over the Meadowlands as the Jets allow over 121 yards per game on the ground. The Rams will play to win in order to keep first place locked up in the NFC West.

Aaron Rodgers has finally made his way back to the top of the QB rankings after two and a half years thanks to a miserable Jaguars defense and some pep in his step with his Netflix documentary airing soon. He’s still a diva, but as long as he puts up some numbers for our lineups, we’ll give him a pass. He threw for 289 yards and three touchdowns in Week 15, with 198 of the yards and nine catches with two scores going to the apple of his eye Davante Adams. Both are viable again in GPPs this week along with Garrett Wilson who may be force-fed after being left out of the mix last week with only three receptions.

Cash: Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua

GPP: Matt Stafford, Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams, Garrett Wilson, Cooper Kupp, Breece Hall

Cardinals @ Panthers (+4) (U/O 47)

Next, we have Arizona heading to the Carolinas to get back into the win column against the Panthers, a team we have picked on all season. The Cardinals are hanging by a thread to get a Wild Card spot while the Panthers seem to be building some chemistry towards the end of the season, especially on offense. We’ll see some value at key positions for DFS, let’s check them out.

Kyler Murray has fallen all the way down to $6,100 on DraftKings due to his underwhelming performances but has become a cash-game quarterback this week thanks to his matchup. Trey McBride, James Conner, and Marvin Harrison Jr. will also see a bump in ownership as they will all face the worst-ranked defense all around the league. All will be popular for cash and tournaments this weekend.

The Panthers are beginning to click on offense, but the injuries continue to pile up, unfortunately. Bryce Young has put up decent numbers for his low salary in the $5K range on DraftKings for the past three weeks, but with only Chuba Hubbard and Adam Thielen as the only guys off the injury report so far, he’ll be too risky. Thielen and Hubbard are the only safe plays for DFS for volume and availability on the slate. Cash and GPP will be fine for both.

Cash: Kyler Murray, James Conner, Adam Thielen

GPP: Trey McBride, Chuba Hubbard, Marvin Harrison Jr., Cardinals DST

Lions @ Bears (+7) (O/U 45.5)

We get ready for another divisional matchup here as the Lions head over to the Windy City to take on the Bears. Detroit has continuously lit up the scoreboard for the month of December while Chicago’s wheels have fallen off for the season. Dan Campbell will be looking to lock up a top seed in the Conference, as the Eagles and Vikings share a record of 12-2 with them, it’ll be a needed victory on the road for Detroit.

In Detroit’s quest for the Super Bowl, they’ll be without David Montgomery who suffered a possible season-ending knee injury this past Sunday. This injury will force Jahmyrr Gibbs into a heavy workload as well as DFS lineups in one of the most prolific offenses in football. A cash game darling will be Gibbs at $7,500 on DraftKings facing a Bears’ defense that has allowed well over 130 yards per game rushing and is 28th in DVOA. ARSB, Goff, Jame-O, and La Porta are also in play, and if you are looking to get different, Craig Reynolds should see some work replacing Montgomery at RB, he’s min-priced at $4K on DraftKings and could be a sleeper if Detroit runs away in this game and he gets garbage- time work.

The last time these two teams met was on Thanksgiving when we witnessed Caleb Williams come to life in the second half to put up a 256/3 stat line, with 39 yards rushing and giving him 26 fantasy points. Detroit’s defense has taken a hit due to injuries and continues to allow opposing offenses to march into the endzone. Williams holds an argument for consideration in lineups priced at only $5,600 on DK, and pairing him with Keenan Allen and DJ Moore makes even more sense at their salaries. Chicago will lean me towards tournament plays instead of cash games.

Cash: Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown

GPP: Caleb Williams, Jared Goff, DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, Sam LaPorta, Cole Kmet, Jameson Williams, Craig Reynolds

Titans @ Colts (-4.5) (O/U 42.5)

Another divisional game on the slate, this time it’s in the AFC South as the Colts close in on a playoff berth hosting Tennessee. Their schedule will help tremendously as they close out the season, starting with the 3-11 Titans that rank 27th in the league in points allowed per game (25.8). However, the Colts are no strangers to allowing their opponents in the endzone as well so Tennessee will also be a team to consider this week.

Anthony Richardson will see his first and only look at a Titans’ defense that has been thrown at all year due to their passion for clogging up running lanes for their opposition. Although his efficiency has been all over in the passing department, his rushing upside has gained some momentum scoring in his last two starts. His price on DraftKings is still affordable at $5,400 as well as his receivers are both priced in the same ballpark. Jonathan Taylor is even back under $7K this week, just on the discount alone I can see using any of these guys at home against Tennessee.

As I mentioned above, the Colts do give up the goods themselves, allowing an average of 140-plus yards per game rushing. When their opponents get going in that department, thus their passing lanes open up. Now Mason Rudolph will take the reigns once again for the benched Will Levis, and he’s put up 15-plus fantasy points in three of his five starts this year. I would keep him in GPPs but Calvin Ridley and Tony Pollard (if healthy) would be cash-game options because of the injuries and possible unavailability of the Titans’ offense.

Cash: Calvin Ridley, Tony Pollard (if healthy, otherwise Tyjae Spears)

GPP: Anthony Richardson, Mason Rudolph, Josh Downs, Michael Pittman, Jonathan Taylor

Giants @ Falcons (-8) (O/U 41)

The 7-7 Falcons will welcome the 2-12 Giants in a much-needed win for Atlanta to keep up the pace with the first-place Bucs. The Giants will be happy to help the cause as they aim to grab a top pick in next year’s draft and continue to get crushed by opposing offenses. Except Atlanta’s offense will be a new one this week with the benching of Kirk Cousins for First Round Draft Pick Michael Penix.

Atlanta shocked the NFL world by taking Penix eighth overall in this year’s draft, and we’ll see perhaps why they did when he takes the field Sunday in a fully weaponized offense against one of the worst defenses in the league. He’s dirt cheap at $4,500 on DK, making him a risky tournament move as he debuts into the NFL. His passing options will also be high-risk, high-reward options like London, Pitts, and Mooney. Bijan Robinson is the only safe, cash-game play this week against a Giants’ run defense that gets gashed for 143 per game on average.

The quarterback carousel continues to spin in New York as Drew Lock gets back under center this week. Atlanta’s DVOA has been morbid, falling to 29th in DVOA to opposing wide receivers. Malik Nabers remains the focal point of the offense as he’s averaging 12 targets per game in December. Tyrone Tracy has been right behind his rookie teammate hogging all the carries in the backfield. Both are priced affordably and can be used in cash or GPPs, but Drew should be considered an extreme risk because of his recent play and availability to complete an entire game.

Cash: Bijan Robinson, Malik Nabers

GPP: Michael Penix, Drake London, Kyle Pitts, Darnell Mooney, Tyrone Tracy

Vikings @ Seahawks (+3.5) (O/U 42.5)

Minnesota looks to keep up with Detroit for first place in the division and will need a win in Seattle to do so. The Seahawks will also have a sense of urgency as they are trying to keep up with the Rams in their division. Both teams’ playoff fates will be at stake in Seattle, so expect the defenses to step it up a notch.

Geno Smith left Sunday night’s loss with a knee injury that seemed at the moment he would be missing some time. Well, he’s back to full practice and in line to start on Sunday, so scratch a Sam Howell start. Minnesota ranks 2nd overall on defense, allowing fewer points, but you may still be able to throw on their secondary. They are dead last in DVOA to opposing wideouts and allow almost 250 yards per game by the pass. Both JSN and DK Metcalf will be a huge value and should see plenty of targets, especially if Minnesota gets rolling early. The Seattle backfield may be getting Kenneth Walker back too, but it could be without Zach Charbonnet. The situation must be monitored for a potential bell-cow opportunity in Seattle.

If and when Minnesota does get on a scoring binge, it would be by the arm of Sam Darnold and the legs of Aaron Jones. The Seahawks allow close to 130 yards per game, and the Vikes love to feed Jones the rock as he holds a 78% carry rate when he’s on the field. Jones scored three times in his last four games and offers a high ceiling for GPPs while pivoting away from the Jahmyr Gibbs chalk. Justin Jefferson, TJ Hock, and Jordan Addison are also solid plays for Week 16.

Cash: Justin Jefferson, Kenneth Walker (If Charbonnet is OUT)

GPP: Geno Smith, Sam Darnold, DK Metcalf, Jaxson Smith Njigba, Aaron Jones, TJ Hockenson

Update: Charbonnet and Walker off injury report

Patriots @ Bills (-14) (O/U 46.5)

Buffalo will welcome the Patriots into an AFC East matchup and as 14-point underdogs this week in Vegas. Buffalo has been playing lights out thanks to MVP frontrunner Josh Allen. New England has their work cut out for them and are already out of the playoff hunt, but don’t expect them to lay down without a fight in this divisional matchup.

Start your Bills for DFS, as they are the hottest team in football. The Pats have been whooped on all year by high-caliber offenses, so, by all means, do not hold back due to the point spread. Their defense also gets a green light being the spread is two touchdowns and the rookie Drake Maye could be pressured into making some difficult passes. Ray Davis and Ty Johnson are also great plays for GPPs as if this game does get out of hand, they’ll see more runs than starter James Cook.

The Pats are in for an uphill battle from the looks of the Vegas lines, but hats off to the rookie Drake Maye. Not only has he averaged a completion percentage of 70% in his rookie year, but he’s managed some usage with his feet, racking up 359 yards with two scores. Another off-the-radar play for tournaments is Maye, but if this game gets off-script and is close, consider Rhamondre Stevenson. The Bills refuse to be beaten downfield on defense and will allow the run. It’s possibly why they’re ranked 31st in the league’s DVOA.

Cash: Josh Allen

GPP: Drake Maye, Rhamondre Stevenson, Khalil Shakir, Amari Cooper, Bills DST, Ray Davis

Niners @ Dolphins (-1.5) (O/U 46)

San Fransisco travels to Miami for one last push to get into the postseason; however, the Dolphins themselves have a window of playoff hopes, too. The Niners finally catch a break in sunny Florida after three weeks of brutal weather, but the injuries keep piling up. The Dolphins have also been bitten by the injury bug, and they’ll be without some key players. But with injuries we find value for DFS, so let’s dive in.

Jaylen Waddle will not suit up this Sunday, which will send more targets to Tyreek Hill, Jonnu Smith, and De’Von Achane from Tua Tagovailoa. However, Tyreek will need to line alongside other receivers before the ball is snapped, and it will be Malik Washington, the rookie out of Virginia. He saw 59% of the snaps upon Waddle’s departure last week and caught five balls for 58 yards. He’s only $3,700 on DraftKings, which is a nice saving on a WR2 in a high-powered offense.

The Niners will be down to their fourth-string running back with Isaac Guerendo being ruled out with a foot and hamstring injury. Patrick Taylor is the next man up at only $5,200 on DraftKings, although I’d rather take another shot on Deebo Samuel who’ll also see some carries and targets with the same price tag. He’s yet to explode this season for a big game, and this may be the one. George Kittle has been a monster for the offense and has everyone’s eye for DFS every week averaging over 16 fantasy points per game.

Cash: George Kittle, Jonnu Smith, De’Von Achane

GPP: Brock Purdy, Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, Malik Washington, Deebo Samuel, Patrick Taylor

Jaguars @ Raiders (-1) (U/O 40.5)

Finally, to wrap up the slate we’ll tap into two of the bottom teams in the league going head-to-head in Vegas. Jacksonville will travel to Sin City to battle the Raiders in a meaningless game from a playoff perspective, but fantasy-wise could be interesting as players will be on the field looking to pad their stat sheet.

The Jags put up some decent yardage and cashed in on scoring opportunities last week against the Jets, so why not run it back against another bottom-tier defense in Vegas? Mac Jones is still dirt cheap along with Brian Thomas and tight end Brenton Strange who caught 11 of 12 targets for 73 yards and is still only $3,500 on DraftKings. All three Jags make nice GPP options along with running backs Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby.

Vegas will get their best matchup of the season facing a defense equally as bad as theirs. They’ll get Aiden O’Connell back under center finally after suffering a leg injury in Week 14. That’s great news for Brock Bowers and Jakobi Meyers this week, who will see plenty of better-quality targets against a Jags DVOA of 31st to opposing wide receivers. The Raiders may split carries between Alexander Mattison and Ameer Abdullah, the latter however is more used in the passing game. I don’t mind either one facing a team that allows over 130 yards rushing and ranks 30th in the league defending the position.

Cash: Brock Bowers, Brenton Strange

GPP: Jakobi Meyers, Brian Thomas, Mac Jones, Aiden O’Connell, Travis Etienne, Tank Bigsby, Alexander Mattison, Ameer Abdullah, Raiders DST

Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game-by-Game Breakdown for Week 16! Remember to check back daily for more updates and content until kickoff. You can reach me on X @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord, tag me @DiCarlo78, for any lineup build opinions or questions. I’m always here to help! Gain access to our projection models and jump into our Discord, where our experts and I will talk about plays across every sport 24/7/365!

5 months ago 0 comments

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NFL Bets & College Football Playoff Picks for Saturday December 21

Dave Gloeckner 5 months ago

written by Dave Gloeckner

We have an awesome day of football ahead of us on this last Saturday before Christmas. First, if last night’s inaugural College Football Playoff Game taught us anything, the atmosphere for the playoff games is second to none. And the pressure is definitely ramped up as we saw an Indiana team look completely overwhelmed by the moment.

As for the NFL, we have two tremendous games for our Saturday viewing pleasure as AFC heavyweights meet to determine playoff positioning.

So we’ll cover it all here and hope you can sit back and enjoy what is the most exciting day of football that we’ve seen in quite some time.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFFS

SMU MUSTANGS +9 at PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS (12pm EST)

There are several teams in this year’s playoffs that have benefited from their schedule. Obviously, Indiana was one and showed the world their metrics were weighted thanks to their weak opponents. And prior to the Big 10 title game, the same could be said of Penn State whose out of conference schedule consisted of West Virginia, Bowling Green and Kent State. In fact, they played two ranked opponents in the regular season, with both happening at home, and they were 1-1. Overall, Penn State ended with the 30th ranked SOS (strength of schedule).

On the other hand, SMU’s resume looks even worse. They played no teams in the top 15 this season. Their toughest game was the ACC Championship game, which they lost to Clemson. Only other ranked teams they played were Louisville and Pittsburgh, who were no higher than #18 in the polls. The Mustangs schedule was ranked 60th overall.

But the reason I’m backing the Mustangs today is twofold. First, Penn State under HC James Franklin does not perform well in high pressure situations. The Nittany Lions are 13-27 against ranked teams in Franklin’s 11 seasons as coach. They are 3-17 against top-10 teams.

But my second reason is the matchup. SMU allows just 93.4 yards rushing per game. That is 5th best in the nation. Penn State relies on the running game to open up their passing. The Lions average 202. yards per game rushing, good for 18th best in the nation. Additionally, SMU is a top 10 scoring offense and top 25 yardage offense. Penn State has played two teams ranked in the top 25 in total yardage, USC and Oregon, and they allowed a combined 75 points to those two teams. I think SMU has a strong front that can slow down Penn State and a good enough offense to stay in this game for all four quarters.

TEXAS LONGHORNS -12 vs CLEMSON TIGERS (4pm EST)

Watching Texas, they may have the most talented roster in College Football. Their issue is finishing drives and making mistakes at crucial times. They were the better team in the SEC Championship, but didn’t put Georgia away early as they settled for FG’s instead of converting them into TD’s. The Longhorns have the best defense in this playoffs and that will show today against Clemson.

The Tigers were fortunate to get into the show. It took some luck, as Syracuse knocked off Miami after being down 21 points to allow Clemson to play in the ACC Championship game. Then there’s the 57-yard FG to win the ACC. They’ll need more than luck today in Texas as they are playing a team that went toe-to-toe with everyone, including Georgia. Does anyone remember what Georgia did to Clemson earlier this year? Yeah, it was 34-3 with Clemson gaining just 188 total yards.

I know Texas got somewhat lucky with their schedule in the SEC. But they are a very good team who just loss a game they felt they should have won. I think they’ll put their best foot forward today and take out their frustrations on Clemson.

OHIO STATE BUCKEYES -7 vs TENNESSEE VOLUNTEERS (8pm EST)

There is no bigger spotlight in college football than the one pointing directly at Ohio State HC Ryan Day. After a fourth straight loss to rival Michigan, the Buckeyes leader is coaching for his life. And that’s rightfully so as he has failed to bring home the hardware, or beat their hated rival, with arguably the most talented team in the nation.

That pressure can break you or make you stronger. And for one night, I like the latter. Tennessee has a great running game but they struggle in the passing game. Ohio State was pushed around on the ground by Michigan, and many will point to that as reason to give the Volunteer’s hope. But I chalk that up to being 3 touchdown favorites and not taking their opponent seriously (which is obviously a mistake and coaching issue). That will change tonight in the big spotlight shining on the horseshoe. The Buckeyes will step up and force Tennessee to throw which will create turnovers and allow Will Smith to operate on a short field. I’m buying the Buckeyes and will back them in the biggest game of Ryan Day’s career.

NFL SATURDAY

HOUSTON TEXANS +3.5 at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (1pm EST)

The Texans have been underwhelming this year, but have clinched the AFC South with a 9-5 record after 14 weeks. By clinching their spot in the postseason, they can now focus on setting up a run to New Orleans. And that starts today as they travel to the two-time defending Super Bowl Champs in Kansas City. I like the Texans to play one of their best games, specifically on defense, and keep this game close throughout. Houston allows the 4th least yards per game and 9th lowest points per game in the NFL. And KC is just 13th in points per game at 23.5. And the injury to Patrick Mahomes is a concern as the Texans rush the QB at a high rate as they rank 2nd in the NFL with 45 team sacks.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS +6.5 at BALTIMORE RAVENS (430pm EST)

This is a classic Mike Tomlin spot. Coming off an embarrassing defeat in Philadelphia, the Steelers are looking left for dead. No George Pickens and potentially no TJ Watt. But as a dog, Mike Tomlin thrives. He is 44-29-1 against the spread as a road underdog. Better yet, the Steelers have won 7 of the past 8 games against their bitter rivals. This is just too big of a number in one of the best division rivalries in the league.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

5 months ago 0 comments

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MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL STRATEGY: TWO GAME CLASSIC SLATE (CHI @ MIN / ATL @ LVR)

Dave Gloeckner 5 months ago

written by Dave Gloeckner

Week 15 of the NFL season wraps up tonight with Monday Night Football. And the NFL has brought us some early holiday gifts with two Monday night games for our viewing, and betting, pleasure. Therefore, this article will take a right turn from its normal form where we focused solely on showdowns. Instead, we’ll look at the combined two game slate and see if we can build a strategy to bring home a winning lineup in a classic format. I’m still providing showdown thoughts at the end of the article for those looking at the typical one game builds. With that said, let’s dive into two intriguing matchups featuring the BEARS at the VIKINGS in the early game and the FALCONS at the RAIDERS slated for the normal MNF time slot.

Remember there are different strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, so ensure you keep that in mind when building your winning lineups.

For a deeper dive into general showdown rules, make sure to check out David Jones’s “Daily Fantasy Football Showdown: Strategy for Building Winning Lineups” article. It’s essential reading for anyone crafting MME lineups, as player salary and team dynamics can impact each game’s approach.

Link: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/

NOTE: The games start just 30 minutes apart with the early game kicking off at 8pm and the latter at 830pm. In reality, we’re just locking lineups 15 minutes prior to when we normally do on MNF.

The totals in the two games tonight are almost identical. We have the Bears/Vikings set at 43.5 points while the Falcons/Raiders are at 44.5 points. The point spreads are also both very close, at 7 and 6 points respectively. That’s important to note as there isn’t one game environment that Vegas predicts will be better than the other. So that’s where you sit back and read what we have to say to see where you can find an advantage.

QUARTERBACK

We have four QB’s to choose from tonight in the two-game slate. But you can only choose one. Here’s how we rank the signal callers tonight based on projected points and value (i.e. points to salary):

KIRK COUSINS ($5500 DK) – There is a real possibility that Kirk Cousins is playing for his job tonight in Las Vegas. A loss to the lowly Raiders would be Atlanta’s fourth in a row. And to do that, I believe the Falcons need to push the ball through the air against a Raiders team that has issues on the backend. Las Vegas is 24th in pass defense DVOA and allows the 9th most fantasy points to QB’s. Add to that this should be a high paced game as the Raiders and Falcons are both in the top 10 in pace.

Then there’s the fun factor of prime-time football. There was a time when Kirk Cousins was considered a player that would struggle in prime time. He is 14-21 overall in prime-time games, but is 6-4 in his last 10. That includes three games this year where he’s 2-1. In those games, he’s thrown for 980 yards with 7 touchdowns and just 2 interceptions.

SAM DARNOLD ($6600 DK) – Speaking of the blitz, Sam Darnold is the 2nd best QB in the league when facing a blitz. He has 11 TD’s to 0 INT’s. Which makes sense as his receivers are able to win one-on-one matchups when teams blitz. But he holds onto the ball at a high rate which makes him the 2nd highest sacked QB coming into Week 15.

But Darnold has been great at finding big plays. Minnesota leads the league in explosive passing plays (over 20+ yards). And the Bears are bad at stopping big plays, ranking 27th in explosive pass plays allowed.

So the points and yards are there to be had with Darnold. The only reason I rank Cousins higher is due to the $1100 discount which is big on a two game slate.

CALEB WILLIAMS ($5700 DK) – The Bears are a mess. Several late game disaster’s led to them firing HC Matt Eberflus. But the alternative looks to be even worse as Chicago laid down last week in interim HC Thomas Brown’s debut. Losing 38-13 to the San Francisco 49ers, who are a mess of their own.

However, even in defeat, which they’ve had a lot, Caleb Williams has been able to put up some decent fantasy numbers. He has five games of 23+ points on the season. He does have four duds, where he put up less than 10 points. But those were in tough conditions or versus quality pass defenses. The latter is what Minnesota is not. The Vikings allow the 3rd most passing yards in the league at 250.6. According to PFF, Minnesota is ranked 29th in pass rush and 17th in pass coverage. While they entered Week 15 with 40 sacks, good for 4th in the NFL, that is due to their propensity to blitz. The Vikings lead the NFL at a 38.7% blitz rate.

That’s where this gets interesting. We all know Caleb Williams has been sacked a lot. He leads the league with 56 sacks. But in the face of a blitz, he’s thrown 6 TD’s to just 1 INT. He’s ranked 13th of all qualified QB’s against the blitz, higher than Baker Mayfield, Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts (to name a few). So seeing the blitz isn’t a bad thing per say for Caleb. It makes him a quicker decision maker. And his stats against Minnesota backed that as he threw for 340 yards and 2 TD’s in Week 12 against the Vikings.

DESMOND RIDDER ($4800 DK) – All signs point to Ridder starting tonight for LVR as Aidan O’Connell is doubtful with a leg injury. I’m not a Ridder fan, but it is worth noting that he started the season as Atlanta’s starting QB in 2023. His poor perfromance is why they spent money in free agency on Cousins and drafted Michael Penix in the first round. But it can also be used as motivation for Ridder and I’ll think he’ll have some extra juice for tonight’s game.

Also worth noting is the Falcons D is awful. They allow the 6th most points to QB’s and 8th most passing yards per game. If the other QB’s were in the $7K range then I’d see value in Ridder. But, with Cousins only $700 more, I find the value of Ridder as low and will likely be fading him tonight. Even with a plus matchup fueled by spurned motivation.

Tier 1: Kirk Cousins, Sam Darnold

Tier 2: Caleb Williams, Desmond Ridder

RUNNING BACK

The RB position is filled with tough decisions tonight because of matchups. The top 2 are clearly the best option but there could be value in other spots.

AARON JONES ($6500 DK) – Jones has the best matchup as the Bears allow the 4th most fantasy point to RB’s. He exploited this matchup back in Week 12 when he ran for 106 yards, his apex on this season. The Bears allow the 5th most rushing yards per game at 134.8.

BIJAN ROBINSON ($7600 DK) – Bijan is the safest option of all the RB’s tonight. Jones has a few games of single digit scoring. Bijan’s lowest output is 10.3 points and that was in a blowout loss against Denver. He also gets a plus matchup as the Raiders are allowing the 11th most fantasy points to RB’s. His matchup isn’t as good as Jones and his salary is $1100 more which is why I put him 2nd. But you can fit him in with Jones or run him separate with multiple big name pass catchers.

SINCERE MCCORMICK ($5100 DK) – The Raiders announced McCormick will start tonight. This is good news as he’s flashed potential the last two weeks, with 134 yards rushing on 27 carries. Atlanta has good numbers against RB’s, but that is somewhat smoke and mirrors. The Falcons have allowed just 4 rushing TD’s this season to RB’s which is 2nd lowest in the NFL. But they are allowing 120.8 yards rushing which is 16th most in the NFL. And they’re susceptible to RB’s that can catch, as they’ve allowed 5.5 receptions to RB’s this season which is 3rd highest in the NFL. See Ameer Abdullah.

NOTE: Alex Mattison is listed as healthy and will suit up tonight. This backfield is crowded and the Raiders pass at such a high rate that I have concerns on using any of their RB’s.

AMEER ABDULLAH ($4600 DK) – Last week looked to be an aberration. Abdullah saw just 2 touches coming off the previous two weeks when he averaged 12.5 touches per game. Abdullah still saw a decent amount of the snaps, registering 39%. The problem was the game script and Tampa’s defense as they held him to -2 total yards. Being Atlanta’s defense is much more favorable, and they allow the 3rd most receptions to RB’s, I like Abdullah to get positive fantasy points tonight.

BEARS RB’s – D’Andre Swift is questionable tonight. If he ends up playing, I will have some interest based on his salary. But if he doesn’t play then we have a potential steal in Travis Homer at $4000. Getting a starting RB for that price, even though the matchup is tough, would be a great edge to use in order to pay up for some other big names.

Tier 1: AARON JONES, BIJAN ROBINSON

Tier 2: SINCERE MCCORMICK, TRAVIS HOMER (if Swift is out)

Tier 3: D’ANDRE SWIFT, AMEER ABDULLAH, TYLER ALLGEIER, CAM AKERS

Wide Receiver

DRAKE LONDON ($6400 DK) – London is my favorite receiver on the slate tonight. He’s $1800 cheaper than Jefferson and has a better matchup against LVR. As Cousins is my #1 QB, I’ll be looking to pair him up with London in most lineups that I have Kirk. I’ll also be comfortable running London solo. Our projections have London at just 2 points behind Jefferson.

JUSTIN JEFFERSON ($8200 DK) – The Bears have been more vulnerable against WR #2’s and TE’s. And this showed up heavily in their first matchup with Minnestoa as they held Jefferson to 2 catches and 27 yards. Chicago tends to play Cover 3, which allows them to double certain WR’s with safety help. The Bears also held Jefferson in check in their final game in 2023, holding him to 4 catches for 38 yards. But the good news is, Jefferson has gone over 100 yards in every home matchup against Chicago. He’s averaged 8 catches and 123 yards in three career home games against the Bears.

JAKOBI MYERS ($5700 DK) – Myers has the best matchup tonight as the Falcons allow the 2nd most fantasy points to WR’s. He is a reception machine, hauling in 23 in the past three weeks. He’s seen 36 targets in that stretch. If his QB’s had some accuracy then his numbers could even be better. And that’s his only drawback tonight, as Ridder is not known for his accuracy. But this is still a great price and plus matchup for a WR that sees the type of volume that Myers does.

DJ MOORE ($5800 DK) – Speaking of great matchups, the only team that allows more fantasy points to WR’s than the Falcons is the Vikings. DJ Moore went for 7 catches and 106 yards in Week 12 against Minnesota. He’ll be the best blitz beater as he can line-up in the slot or see quick routes from the outside.

DARNELL MOONEY ($5500 DK) – Mooney reeled in 6 catches for 142 yards last week in Minnesota. He’ll have opportunities tonight too against a Raiders team that doesn’t have a CB ranked inside the top 66 players at that position according to PFF.

KEENAN ALLEN ($5400 DK) – Allen has been more active in the passing game of late, averaging 18 fantasy points per game in the last 3 weeks. He also had a big game against Minnesota in Week 12 bringing in 9 catches for 96 yards. Allen’s performance will hinge on TD equity as he doesn’t get a lot of downfield opportunities.

Of note, JORDAN ADDISON had a huge game last week and against Chicago is Week 12. He’s in my player pool too but I will likely only play him in lineups that I don’t have Jefferson.

Tier 1: DRAKE LONDON, JUSTIN JEFFERSON, JAKOBI MYERS

Tier 2: DJ MOORE, KEENAN ALLEN, DARNELL MOONEY, JORDAN ADDISON

TIER 3: RAY-RAY MCCLOUD, ROME ODUNZE, TRE TUCKER

Tight End

With have one big name TE who has underperformed this season but has a plus matchup. The other TE’s are low salary and low volume.

Tier 1: BROCK BOWERS

Tier 2: TJ HOCKENSON

Tier 3: KYLE PITTS, COLE KMET

DEFENSE

There is one premium defense based on sack equity. But all are in play due to sack potential.

Tier 1: MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Tier 2: ATLANTA FALCONS

Tier 3: CHICAGO BEARS, LAS VEGAS RAIDERS

FanDuel MVP and DraftKings CPT Picks—MNF Showdown

Now that you have our multi game strategy, we’re also providing a quick thought on the single game breakdowns (SHOWDOWNS).

Best Rules for the Showdown slate (CHI at MIN):

Play the passing game tonight. Minnesota at home has been performing at a high level all season. They average 28.7 points per game in their home dome.
Put a premium WR in your CPT. Looking at Jefferson, Addison, Hockenson or Moore.
I will use Travis Homer as salary relief. Especially if Swift is out.
Kickers are in play but I prefer Reichard (Minnesota). Teams like the Bears that have little to play for will pass on FG opps more often than normal.
Aaron Jones should have a big game tonight as well. I’ll play him with pass catchers but not necessarily with Darnold.
Bears WR rankings for me; Moore, Allen, Kmet, Odunze.
Caleb Williams could have a good fantasy game. I don’t mind playing him in a runback against Minnesota’s passing game.

Best Rules for the slate (ATL at LVR):

My favorite CPT’s are Drake London, Bijan Robinson and Jakobi Myers.
I’m bullish on Desmond Ridder for the two game slate. But I like him in a showdown. He’s even a CPT candidate due to the potential for him to score with his legs.
Brock Bowers can’t be stopped but his salary is high. Try to fit him in with Myers or Ridder when making lineups. The Raiders pass at the 3rd highest rate in the league.
Bijan will be most popular player and rightfully so. With the Falcons on a long losing streak, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a focused running attack, especially in the redzone.
At least one secondary receiver will have a big game. My preference is Mooney, Tucker, then McCloud.
Even though Abdullah didn’t see many touches last week, at $3400 DK tonight he could be a good salary saver. Teh Falcons have let up 3rd most receptions to RB’s this season. And that’s Abdullah’s bread and butter. The risk is that Alex Mattison is back (same goes for risk with McCormick).
McCormick gets the start at RB but is priced up in the Showdown. I prefer the passing game over him.

Favorite prop for the games: To be posted by 5pm EST.

Now that you finished reading the MONDAY NIGHT SHOWDOWN article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

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Sunday’s Best NFL DFS Core Plays: GPP Building Blocks – Week 15

David Jones 5 months ago

written by David Jones

*I’ll be updating this article on Sunday morning Sunday Updates

Quarterback Rankings

Josh Allen: Hard to not rank him at the top after last week’s performance in a game with the highest O/U of the week – see receivers for matchups
Joe Burrow: Anything less than 3 TDs is a letdown. – see receivers for matchups
Jared Goff: The Bills might make him throw it, and he has an arsenal at his disposal
Tua Tagovailoa
Will Levis: I make a case for every Titans skill player below, so I have to recommend him as a cheap option. Of course, you need the spends ups all to bust relative to their price.

Running Backs

Chubba Hubbard

Dallas allows 25.8 DraftKings points per game to the RB. They have allowed 16 combined TDs to the position. They are ranked 26^th in DVOA in total defense and 29^th in DVOA against the run. Bryce Young has been playing better and has at least shown the ability to move an offense down the field (converting in the endzone is another story). Hubbard is coming off a 26-attempt game while also getting five targets. I doubt he will pull that kind of volume off again, but it sure is promising. He is priced too low on both DraftKings and FanDuel and is a lock-in cash game while also warranting plenty of GPP exposure.

Brian Robinson Jr.

Austin Ekeler is on IR. Noah Brown is out. That leaves Brian Robinson Jr and Terry McLaurin as the only Commanders you can put faith in to have a significant role in the Washington offenses. The Saints are ranked 31^st in DVOA against the run while giving up 15 total touchdowns to RBs (rushing and receiving) this season. The DraftKings price tag of $6,200 is just too cheap for BRob.

Tyjae Spears (conditional)

If Tony Pollard is ruled out before kickoff, Tyjae Spears becomes the uber chalk at only $4,300. Fantasy bros that have been touting this guy for three years will finally get their victory lap. He is too cheap to fade against a bad Bengals defense. You just lock him in.

Rachaad White (conditional)

If Bucky Irving is ruled out, White will shoot to the top of my list, even in a tough matchup against the Chargers. He would be dramatically underpriced on both sites while being used as the primary runningback and a WR2/3.

*Zach Charbonnet

He is only on the FanDuel slate. I will be locking him in everything.

Best Mid-Range (not listed above):

Rico Dowdle: On the season, CAR has been the worst team in football against the run.
James Conner
Rhamondre Stevenson

Others to consider:

Saquon Barkley
Derrick Henry:
Joe Mixon
De’Von Achane
Jahmyr Gibbs
Chase Brown
David Montgomery

A lot to like this week. I will be trying to narrow it down before and during the live stream tomorrow AM. As it stands now, I can make a case for each of them. I will let my receiver and QB build dictate which of these RBs I land on as of now.

Wide Receiver

Amon-Ra St. Brown

Out of the Lion’s receivers, the Sun God is my preference. He is the Lion’s primary slot receiver and faces Bill’s worst corner in YPRC, Taron Johnson, who plays primarily out of the slot. St. Brown leads DET with a 24% target percentage, averaging 18.1 DK points per game. He is on a three-game streak of no touchdowns but should be able to snap that in Week 15 in a game with a massive 54.5 total. The Bills are also ranked poorly against opposing WR1’s (27^th).

Jameson Williams and Tim Patrick are both in play in game stacks. Williams leads the team in air yards and YPRR. The Bills are also worse against the WR2 (29^th) than the WR1. I don’t expect another Tim Patrick monster game; I’m just looking for a couple of reasons. He will see a lot of Christian Benford, who has been solid. He also is by far the least targeted Lions receiver out of the starters. Dan Campbell also has a way of getting everyone involved, which usually means rotating monster games from one week to another. St. Brown and Williams are heavily preferred here.

The Tennessee Titans

I am going right back to the Titans pass catchers right after they busted last week against the 30^th DVOA pass defense in the league. Before Week 14, it felt like one of these two guys was hitting the nuts weekly. All three of the key wide receivers find themselves as viable DFS plays this Sunday. Nick Westbrook-Ikhines’s touchdown streak was broken last week (but he almost got one at the very end of the game). He lines up on the left side of the field 47% of the time, which is covered by Josh Newton 67% of the time. He has limited opposing receivers to the least number of yards, but he is certainly still beatable.

For upside, Calvin Ridley should put up the highest score. He will see Cam Taylor Britt more than anyone else who has been the Bengal’s worst cover corner. He allows 1.42 YPRC and the most air yards (12.6). He has the second-highest projected target share behind slot corner Mike Hilton.

Tyler Boyd will see Hilton the most, so that is a positive for Boyd. The Bengals are also the worst team on the slate against the WR3 (29^th overall). Also, revenge who like to dabble in that narrative.

Terry McLaurin

Is this guy coming in at 3% or less? The Saint’s season numbers against the WR1 are somehow elite, but that doesn’t take into account how they have been playing lately with the corners they have at their disposal, post-trade deadline. McLaurin will go against a significant amount of man coverage against the outside corners of the Saints. New Orleans is in the bottom five in yards per reception and yards per route covered in man. Overall, the Saints allow the highest number of YPRC of any team in the NFL, and McLaurin is going to get a ton of targets in this one, with Noah Brown being ruled out.

Zay Flowers

The New York Giants are ranked 31^st against the WR1. The only team ranked worse is the Baltimore Ravens. Sure, the game script doesn’t lead to many passes in the second half, but Flowers should be able to do plenty at a $6,000 DraftKings price tag. The last true blowout the Ravens were in was when they beat the Broncos 41-10, and Flowers put up 127 yards and 2 TDs for 32.7 DK points.

Nico Collins

The Dolphins are ranked 25^th against opposing WR1’s. Nico Collins is the second highest-targeted (28.9%) receiver on the slate. He is a priority to get to like he has been all season.

Khalil Shakir

He will get the majority of the slot routes against the Lions, who allow the 4^th most fantasy points to wide receivers in the league. The slot is their weakest position, allowing 1.31 YPRC while also being the highest targeted by opposing offenses. Shakir leads the bills in YPRR and target share (25.4%).

The New York Jets

The Jaguars are the worst team via DVOA against the pass. The best way (not the only way) is to throw it down the right side of the field. Allen Lazard runs the most right-side routes on the season, so taking a stab at him is viable in large-field GPPs. He did get up to 78% of snaps last week, and we have witnessed Aaron Rodgers being more than willing to throw it to him even when Adams and Wilson are on the field. Aside from that deep shot, rolling out Adams or Wilson is warranted as well. As far as choosing one, that is a difficult task. My metrics lean ever so slightly towards Adams, so if I am forced to choose one (I am not), I suppose it would be him.

Dyami Brown

He should see the largest benefit (aside from Terry McLaurin) from Noah Brown being ruled out. Brown was seeing the second most receiver snaps for the Commanders (up to 89% in Week 10). With those snaps now vacated, Dyami Brown, along with Olamide Zaccheaus and Luke McCaffrey, will see the field more. As far as raw playing time goes, I have Brown getting the largest bump. The Saints have been oddly good against the WR1 lately. However, they have been letting everyone else slip through the cracks. Brown is only $3,100 on DraftKings, and I am fairly confident he can beat that salary 9 out of 10 times he gets this role.

Tee Higgins

He and Ja’Marr Chase are both going to run on the outside the majority of the time, while Andrei Iosivas gets 50% of the slot snaps. The Titans will still be without L’Jarius Sneed (their best corner), and the Bengals should be able to take full advantage in a game they absolutely must win (including all the games the rest of the season) to have a shot at the postseason. In all reality, too many things have to happen for the Bengals to get into the playoffs, but they are still going to be playing like they have a shot. Burrow can easily throw for 3-TDs here, and Higgins and Chase will be the prime beneficiaries. Higgins wins in this portion of the article for me simply because he is cheaper and has the same rotating matchup as Chase.

Amari Cooper or Keon Coleman

Cooper is a better receiver at this stage in the game, but the matchups are essentially identical. Coleman is significantly cheaper, so if you can’t fit Cooper, you should feel comfortable with Coleman.

Devaughn Vele

The Colts run a ton of zone coverage, and Vele is the receiver that typically benefits at the highest rate for the Denver Broncos. He leads the Broncos in target % and YPRR in zone. If you can not afford Courtland Sutton, who I also like a great deal at his mid-range salary, Vele is a nice leverage option.

Others to consider

Tyreek Hill: I’m not doing a big write-up here, but he is the preference on the Dolphins. Will draw the most favorable overall matchup for them when factoring in routes run, CB matchups, and projected target %
Ladd McConkey
Malik Nabers: Baltimore is terrible covering the WR, but the Giants offense is also terrible.
Jaylen Waddle: Comes in second in volume for Tua’s receivers but third in overall CB matchups.
Marvin Harrison Jr.
Malik Washington: I love the matchup and increased snaps via OBJ’s departure, I just don’t trust the volume
Michael Wilson

Tight End

Best Value: Brenton Strange

Best Spend Up: Trey McBride

Value Pivots:

Stone Smart

He is a cheap, tight-end option who will be getting a playing time boost with Will Dissly ruled out. Tampa has been bad against tight ends overall this season (27^th via DVOA) but has been better as of late. If Ladd McConkey were to be ruled out, Smart would be in the running for the best TE value on the slate.

Chig Okonkwo

I have loved targeting the Bengals with tight ends this season. They allow the 4^th most fantasy points to the position while giving up the second most receiving touchdowns (8). We have not had a ceiling game out of Okonkwo all season. His best game came against Houston in Week 12 when he caught his only target for one touchdown. In the past two games, he has been targeted ten combined times. I can work with that at only $2,900 on DraftKings and no ownership in large-field GPPs.

Others to consider:

Jonnu Smith
Sam LaPorta: Likely just use him in game stacks
Jake Ferguson: The matchup is there we just need to QB play to be there, too
Mark Andrews
Juwan Johnson
Tyler Conklin: Best DVOA TE spot in the NFL, but low volume option.

Favorited Game Stacks

BUF DET
MIA HOU
CIN TEN

Favorite Team Stacks (not mentioned above)

Final slate thought. Going through my research, I made a case for every single skill position for the Titans, from QB, RB, WR, and TE. That scares me, but those numbers are what they are. Let go, Titans! (I guess)

Again, I will update this article if anything changes. Be sure to come back and check for the most up-to-date plays.

5 months ago 0 comments

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NFL Game-by-Game Breakdown for Week 15

Joe DiCarlo 5 months ago

written by Joe DiCarlo

What a Week 14 we had, the scores in our Discord nearly broke the slate with players like Zach Charbonnet and Isaac Guerendo stacked with Justin Jefferson and Josh Allen. It’s what makes me proud to see on Sunday evenings after all the hard work we put in here at WinDaily. Let’s run it back here in Week 15, we’ve jumped back up to 12 games on the slate so there will be a little more to break down. Let’s roll fellas, It’s getting down to the wire for the NFL Season.

Sunday Main Slate 12/15/24

Cowboys @ Panthers (-2.5) (O/U 43)

The Cowboys, fresh from another embarrassing loss at home, will travel to Carolina to face a Panthers campaign that is beginning to show some heart. Dallas cost themselves the win on Monday night thanks to a costly mistake of turning the ball over while Carolina put up an extremely strong effort on the road in Philadelphia that went down to the final play. Both teams are hungry to get back in the win column, so it should be competitive.

What a way to get back on your feet if you are the Cowboys as you get to play the Panthers on the schedule. Although they put up a good fight in Philly, they still stink at defending the run (32nd in the league). Rico Dowdle dominated the backfield against Cincy on Monday night racking up 141 total yards, and playing 77% of the snaps, Start him in cash or GPPs along with Jake Ferguson and CeeDee Lamb who are due to a bounce-back game against one of the worst defenses in football.

Dallas was shredded by Burrow and the Bengals Monday Night, which has been the norm for Cowboys fans to witness this season. If it wasn’t Ja’Marr Chase on the receiving end from Burrow, it was Chase Brown at running back torching the Dallas linebackers. With the disappointing news of Jonathan Brooks landing back on IR, Chuba Hubbard will lead the Carolina backfield again, and Dallas is just one notch better at stopping the run ranking 31st in the league. The veteran Adam Thielen once again gets the green light for DFS as he’s scored twenty-plus points in back-to-back games. I don’t mind Bryce Young either with his $5,300 salary on DraftKings in GPPs.

Cash: Rico Dowdle, Chuba Hubbard, CeeDee Lamb

GPP: Adam Thielen, Jake Ferguson, Bryce Young

Chiefs @ Browns (-4) (O/U 45)

The world champs continue to skate by their opponents by field goal victories and special team plays, and will look for one more in Cleveland this weekend. The Browns came up short against Pittsburgh last week, which was a loss that pretty much iced them out of playoff contention. While the Chiefs aim to lock up the first seed in the AFC, Jameis Winston and the Browns will be looking to play spoiler.

They keep winning, but it hasn’t been pretty for fantasy. It’s been defense and field goals that reflect the Kansas City record at 12-1, but can we keep rolling the dice on the pieces for DFS? Pat Mahomes and Travis Kelce remain the only trustworthy players to draft in your lineups, although Kelce has been in a slight slump recently. The Steve Spagnuolo defense is also a reliable play against a Jameis Winston-led offense that has thrown six picks in his last three games (Two for touchdowns).

Cleveland has unlocked vintage Jameis. The passing volume has been extraordinary with 99 passing attempts in his last two games. However vintage Jameis does turn the ball over, so take it with a grain of salt. Even though Kansas City has been a top-ten defense all season, Winston will keep chucking it as long as he is under center. Jerry Jeudy has been his biggest fan, grabbing 14 of 19 targets for 299 yards and two touchdowns. Elijah Moore and David Njoku can join Jeudy and Jameis in GPPs on the slate.

Cash: Patrick Mahomes, David Njoku (if healthy)

GPP: Travis Kelce, Jerry Jeudy, Elijah Moore, Jameis Winston

Dolphins @ Texans (-3) (O/U 47)

Miami will look to keep the momentum rolling after their overtime win against the Jets in Houston, where a well-rested Texans team will be waiting to pounce. The Dolphins offense has gotten better, looking back to 100 percent finally after losing Tua earlier this season. But will they be able to keep up with the firepower in Texas led by Joe Mixon? It should be a fun game to watch and definitely a part of the slate to grab pieces of.

Although Miami ranks seventh against the run, allowing only 105 yards per game, it’s not enough to sway me away from Joe Mixon. He ranks second in the league in fantasy points per game (21.2) and scoring 12 total touchdowns so far this season. His presence also opens up routes for Nico Collins who’s been averaging 17 yards per catch on the year. Both make solid cash game plays while Tank Dell and Dalton Schultz are GPP options against a beatable Miami secondary.

The Dolphins are back and are making a run for a Wild Card berth thanks to the efficiency of Tua Tagovailoa. He’s averaging over 75% of his completions since Week 11 along with 308 yards and 23 fantasy points per game. He’ll be indoors and away from the elements in winter which helps him out tremendously against a Tesxans’ defense that is 22nd in DVOA to opposing QBs. He’s a value at quarterback for cash, and his arsenal of teammates are all very useable in tournaments this week in a meaningful game for Miami.

Cash: Joe Mixon, Nico Collins, Tua Tagovailoa

GPP: Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, De’Von Achane, Jonnu Smith, Tank Dell, Dalton Schultz

Jets @ Jaguars (+3) (U/O 40.5)

The Jets land in a great matchup finally this week in a meaningless game against Jacksonville as their playoff hopes are over. The Jags season is over along with starting quarterback Trevor Lawrenece’s, so both clubs will be on the field to prove themselves for next season. The total is gross as well as these two teams’ records, but for DFS we could care less, let’s see who we can play out of this dumpster fire of a game.

When we get Jacksonville on the slate, our first instinct is to attack, and rightfully so (28th overall defense). However, they’ve picked up some of the pieces defensively, holding their last two opponents to just nine total points combined in each of the games’ first halves. The 40-year-old Rodgers still should be considered for GPPs at his low price tag of $5,400 on DraftKings regardless as he’ll continue to push for another run next season and prove his worth. Both Davante Adams and Garrett Wilson are viable pairing options for DFS, and at running back aim for the cheaper Isaiah Davis in the split backfield (Unless Breece Hall somehow gets healthy this week as he continues to miss practice).

Mac Jones has not been the answer fantasy-wise, although he did manage to pull together the team in a win against Tennessee. His teammates are rosterable, but there are not many in Jacksonville. Brian Thomas Jr sits on top of the target share chart, in his last two games with Jones, he’s caught 12 of 22 targets, one of them being in the endzone. Just keep an eye on the status of Sauce Gardner, who missed his last game due to injury. If he plays, he could slow down Thomas’ production.

Cash: None

GPP: Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams, Garrett Wilson, Isaiah Davis, Brian Thomas

Update: Breece Hall expected to play… downgrade to Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis

Commanders @ Saints (+7.5) (O/U 43)

The well-rested Commanders will travel after a bye week into New Orleans in a very winnable matchup to stay in contention of a Wild Card spot in the NFC. Meanwhile, the Saints could be rolling out some new faces in the offense this week as they may have lost starting quarterback Derek Carr after suffering a concussion and a fractured hand. We love Washington this week, but how much offense will they really need to turn out this week against a severely shorthanded Saints roster?

One of the hottest offenses in the NFC has made it back on the slate and will get a cupcake matchup indoors against a team that may struggle to move the football when it’s their turn on offense. The rookie Jayden Daniels can perform in this game without a doubt, but how much will he have to do? He’s always a lock for DFS in most cases but perhaps take the discount at running back with Brian Robinson Jr. and tight end Zach Ertz as opposed to paying up for Daniels and McLaurin. Not trying to steer you off these guys, just an option in case you would rather pay up elsewhere on the slate. Paying up for the Commanders’ defense is a solid play for $3,400 on DraftKings. One more note, Noah Brown landed on IR. Next man up is Dyami Brown who’s been playing 56% of Washington’s snaps. For $3,100 on DraftKings, he’s priced in for GPPs.

New Orleans will be a tough pill to swallow if you consider using anyone for DFS this week against one of the top five pass defenses in the league—bad news for whoever gets the start at quarterback which may likely be Spencer Rattler or Jake Haener. Although I can only see one possibility of using any Saints this week for DFS it would be Kendre Miller. Miller’s $4,500 DraftKings salary against a Commanders defense that allows over 137 yards per game (Only if Kamara is out).

Cash: Brian Robinson Jr., Jayden Daniels, Commanders DST

GPP: Zach Ertz, Terry McLaurin, Kendre Miller, Dyami Brown

Ravens @ Giants (+14.5) (O/U 43)

Baltimore also returns from their bye week and will ease back into the regular season as they face the pitiful 2-11 Giants in the Meadowlands. New York can’t finish their 2024 campaign any sooner as they will defer back to third-string quarterback Tommy DeVito as backup Drew Lock ended up in a walking boot. The number-one-ranked rushing offense will face the third-worst run defense, so you already know what direction we are heading for in this matchup.

The red carpet will be rolled out for King Henry at MetLife Stadium as the league’s leader in touchdowns (15) and second in rushing (1,407) will face a Giants’ team that allows over 140 yards per game. He’s a lock for cash if you can afford this Raven battering ram. The rest of his teammates are GPP options including Lamar Jackson, who may be on ice in the second half if this game gets out of hand.

Cutlets will get a second start this year filling in for Drew Lock, but after his performance back in Week 12 we should all be looking the other way for fantasy. He took four sacks against Tampa and only threw for 180 yards, with no attempts to Malik Nabers in the first half. Baltimore will bring plenty of pressure and force DeVito into making mistakes, so their defense is in play for DFS.

Cash: Derrick Henry, Ravens DST

GPP: Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews, Zay Flowers, Rashod Bateman

Bengals @ Titans (+5) (O/U 47)

Tennessee will host one of the most pass-heavy offenses in football in the Bengals. Cincinnati kept their playoff hopes alive with a win in Dallas as the Titans let one slip away last weekend against the one-win Jaguars. We’ve all witnessed what Burrow is capable of with his core receivers back at full strength recently, so don’t sleep on this matchup. Cincy needs to win against this pass-funnel-style defense so get some shares of this offense.

Joe Burrow leads the league in passing yards and touchdowns, need I say more about the Bengals for DFS? Force them in on any given slate. Ja’marr Chase and Tee Higgins are household names, but the real story is behind second-year Illinois back Chase Brown. Since taking over the entire backfield in Week 9 he’s averaged five catches per game. The Bengals will feast on the Titans’ 27th overall defense.

They’re not as weaponized as Cincinnati, but the defense Tennessee will face is just as beatable as their own. Although the Titans did put up a giant egg against the deplorable Jaguars, what can we expect from Will Levis this time out? I believe in second chances, especially coming off a bad week prior. Give Tony Pollard, Calvin Ridley, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, and Tyler Boyd a shot in tournaments facing a Bengals’ secondary that is bottom of the league in passing and rushing touchdowns with 40 total allowed.

Cash: Joe Burrow, Ja’Maar Chase

GPP: Chase Brown, Tee Higgins, Tony Pollard, Calvin Ridley, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Tyler Boyd, Will Levis

Patriots @ Cardinals (-5.5) (O/U 45.5)

The Cardinals, looking to gain ground in the playoff race, will host a young Patriots team that has been keeping its opponents honest. Last weekend, the Patriots barely lost to the Colts. New England has lost by a touchdown or less in six of their ten losses, so Arizona better brings their “A” game to the table if they want to reach the postseason. This matchup will float under the radar on the slate, so for GPPs take some guys from this game for leverage in tournaments.

The Pats have been middle of the pack defending against both ways of moving the football, so there’s no edge as far as a position to attack in this game for DFS. This game is a must-win for Arizona who have dropped three straight and fell to third in the NFC West. Kyler Murray, James Conner, and Trey McBride have all been the backbone of the offense, and Marvin Harrison Jr. will show up now and then. Kyler at $6K is robbery and a solid cash play this week while the rest are tournament plays.

Drake Maye has truly been fitting the part for New England, averaging over 250 yards with four touchdowns over his past three games. His rushing has also been fantastic this season, totaling 345 and a touchdown in his eight starts. Hunter Henry has been locked and loaded in the offense, ranking fourth in air yards and seventh in targets amongst tight ends. The receiver room is crowded in New England, but Kayshon Boutte remains on the field with a 90% snap share. He’s affordable at $3,500 on DraftKings, so he’s a great way to get different and save some salary at the same time.

Cash: Kyler Murray, Hunter Henry, Trey McBride

GPP: Drake Maye, Kayshon Boutte, James Conner, Marvin Harrison Jr.

Colts @ Broncos (-4) (O/U 44)

Indy is back on the slate after a bye week and will land in Denver to battle Bo Nix and the Broncos, who are also back from a week off. The total is only 44, but the matchups for some of these players should hit their value this week. Both teams are aiming to make the playoffs, so it should be an intense game on hand.

The Colts rank 26th in defending the pass and 31st in defending the run, so pick your poison on the Denver side of the offense. The problem lies in the Broncos backfield, however, as head coach Sean Payton will play the hot hand in a three-headed monster at running back (Javonte Williams, Jaleel McLaughlin, and Audric Estime). Your safest path for DFS is to avoid the position and hammer in Bo Nix and Courtland Sutton. The duo have connected on 86 of 104 targets for the season, and fellow rookie Devaughn Vele at $4,200 on DraftKings is tempting at his salary against this defense.

Anthony Richardson has turned his game around after returning from the bench in the second half of the season. He’s done his work on the ground, rushing for three scores and over twenty fantasy points in two of his last three games, The last we saw the Broncos’ defense they allowed 32 points to Cleveland, giving us some optimism they may bleed again this week. Josh Downs will continue to demand the football from Richardson, especially if Pittman is to be covered by Patrick Surtain. Jonathan Taylor on price tag alone ($6,900 on DraftKings) is way too cheap and a great way to get different at running back in tournaments, regardless of the matchup.

Cash: Bo Nix

GPP: Courtland Sutton, Anthony Richardson, Josh Downs, Devaughn Vele, Jonathan Taylor

Bills @ Lions (-2.5) (O/U 54.5)

Behold, the game of the week will be played in the Motor City as the Bills take on the Lions in a potential Super Bowl LIV preview. The highest total of the weekend will feature some of the biggest names in the game, including MVP candidate Josh Allen. The field will pound this game for roster spots so it will be good chalk and loaded with cash game options. Both teams will be fired up and playing for a first-place seed with a bye in the playoffs, so let’s see who we’ll be scooping up for our lineups.

Josh Allen has been playing on another planet. How can you fade a guy who put up 54 DraftKings points last week and is now in another potential barn burner again? You don’t, just figure out how to build around him. Amari Cooper saw 14 targets against the Rams and is way underpriced at $5,300 on DK, so he caught my eye when it comes to stacking with the expensive Allen. His targets may go down though with the return of Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid if healthy, but his price is worth the risk.

You just can’t go wrong with anyone in Detroit these days and their record of 12-1 speaks for itself. Detroit will look to start the game by establishing the run, and against a Bills’ run defense that allows 123 yards per game and 30th in DVOA to opposing backs, taking Jahmyr Gibbs or David Montgomery as a no-brainer in this atmosphere. Everyone else is in play so don’t feel like you need to focus only on the backs. If Josh Allen goes off, Jared Goff will be forced to keep up the pace with targets to Amon-Ra, Jameson Williams, and Sam LaPorta. Tim Patrick as the number three receiver in this offense has also picked up a head of steam, catching two touchdowns in Week 14. Consider him in GPPs where as the rest of Detroit can be played in both formats.

Cash: Josh Allen, David Montgomery, Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown

GPP: Jared Goff, Amari Cooper, Jameson Williams, Tim Patrick, James Cook, Sam LaPorta, Khalil Shakir

Bucs @ Chargers (-3) (U/O 45.5)

The Chargers will host Baker Mayfield and the Bucs in LA as both teams look to make a run at the playoffs. Justin Herbert has been disappointing, but he gets another great matchup at home. Can we trust him one more time? Baker on the other hand has a rough road ahead of him facing a top-three defense of LA.

The Bucs are gross against the pass, period. That secondary allows the third-most passing yards in the league, which sets quarterback Justin Herbert one more time to shine. But hopefully, Ladd McConkey can suit up and shake his knee and shoulder injuries. Keep a close eye on his status in the second half of the slate. If he’s ruled out Quentin Johnston will become LA’s number-one wideout by default followed by Joshua Palmer. For some extra value at the tight end position, consider Stone Smartt who will be filling in for Will Dissly. Tampa is 27th in DVOA to the tight end and at $2,600 on DraftKings Smartt could be a wise move in GPPs.

I’m out on Tampa this week. Baker, Mike Evans, and Cade Otton are way too priced up on the road against this tough matchup. However, If Bucky Irving gets ruled out during pre-game warm-ups, then Rachaad White could be useful in a late swap. He scored 25 fantasy points owning the lion’s share of the backfield when Bucky went down against Vegas. Be prepared to swap out White and keep him in your flex if you are feeling another turnout for him. especially in the passing game.

Cash: Justin Herbert

GPP: Ladd McConkey (if healthy), Quentin Johnston, Stone Smartt, Rachaad White (if Irving is out)

Steelers @ Eagles (-5) (U/O 42.5)

Lastly, we end the slate with the battle of bragging rights for Pennsylvania as the Steelers take on the Eagles. Both clubs have a ton of momentum going for them as they each stand in first place in both of their divisions. Two very solid defenses as well as respectable offenses will clash on primetime, so break out the popcorn.

Pittsburgh has been stingy all season allowing their opponents to move the football on paper, except when they face an elite opponent (Burrow and the Bengals scored 38 on them in Week 13). But I wouldn’t stack up on Eagles for cash, keep them in tournaments. Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley and company will get the green light every day of the week, AJ Brown has been voicing his frustrations about his role in the offense recently. If the squeaky wheel gets its grease this week, Brown would be another sweet tournament move.

Pittsburgh’s Russell Wilson will see the true test of his resurgence this week against an Eagles front seven that has devoured every opposing quarterback in their path since Week 4 with Baker Mayfield. But they have the future Hall of Fame coach of Mike Tomlin to figure out how to move the football, which has led them to a 10-3 record this season. They’ll be without George Pickens for another week, which will give Pat Freirmuth another bump in volume for one more game. The Steelers may also choose to run with their duo in the backfield of Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren with the George Pickens injury. Mike Williams, Calvin Austin, and Van Jefferson round up the receiving room but are extremely risky as they all put up duds last week without Pickens in the lineup.

Cash: Saquon Barkley, Jalen Hurts, Pat Freiermuth

GPP: AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith, Najee Harris, Jaylen Warren, Russell Wilson

Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game-by-Game Breakdown for Week 15! Remember to check back daily for more updates and content until kickoff. You can reach me on X @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord, tag me @DiCarlo78, for any lineup build opinions or questions. I’m always here to help! Gain access to our projection models and jump into our Discord, where our experts and I will talk about plays across every sport 24/7/365!

5 months ago 0 comments

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NFL Bets & Survivor Pool Picks for 2024 Week Fifteen

Dave Gloeckner 5 months ago

written by Dave Gloeckner

We had another solid outing by going 3-2 in our plays from last week’s article. The Monday Night Football game got us on the plus side as the Bengals used a fortunate bounce to cover the line as road favorites. The thought of Kirk’s revenge went sour, but the Panthers covering a big line and almost pulling off a stunner in Philly was our best play of the weekend. We’ve now dug ourselves out of the early season hole and got over the 0.500 mark. With four weeks left, and a recent string of 8 games over 0.500 in the last 6 weeks, we’ll look to keep the momentum going into this weekend’s big slate.

Of note, the dogs went 7-5-1 last week. Of the seven ATS covers, two were outright wins.

As for Survivor, most leagues have wrapped up but if you’re still alive then I’ll give my best play outside of Baltimore (16-point favorites). We won last week by backing the Dolphins. This week, I lean Philadelphia as a 5.5 point favorite. The Eagles had a lot of white noise going on this week but I think that’ll help them focus and knock off another AFC contender. Another team to consider is Minnesota as they are playing a Bears team that is looking like they are laying down for the rest of the season.

NFL BETS WEEK 15 (2024 SEASON RECORD: 35-34-1, game bets only)

DENVER BRONCOS -3.5 vs INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Both teams are heading into this critical matchup coming off a bye week. They are both relatively healthy and fresh which will be key as this game is as close to a playoff game as any this weekend. With a win, the Broncos chances of being in the playoffs rises to 91%. But with a loss, they drop to 51%. On the flipside, the Colts have a 51% chance of reaching the playoffs with a win but drop to 6% with a loss.

I lean towards the Broncos in this matchup as they have been a team on the rise over the past two months. In their last 3 home games, they are 3-0 ATS and have an average win margin of 18.3 points per game. Alternatively, the Colts are 3-3 ATS on the road this season, and are 1-2 ATS in their past 3 road games. This includes two games they won by 1-point each against the hapless Jets and Patriots.

Additionally, I see a broad gap between the teams in DVOA. Denver is 5th overall defensively while Indianapolis is 16th. Offensively, it’s closer but Denver still has the edge at 20th overall vice Indy at 22nd overall. And Denver has played a much tougher schedule than the Colts. So, saddle up and say it together, Broncos Country “let’s ride”!

NEW YORK JETS -3.5 at JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

I said two weeks ago that I’d never take the Jets again. Yet here we are and I’m breaking my promise. But really, the Jets are a favorite against anyone? Not only a favorite but a road favorite and one that is over the key number of three. I hate to say it, but this line tells me something. This is more of an indictment on the Jaguars, Doug Pederson and Mac Jones. So with that, I’ll keep this one short, J-E-T-S, JETS, JETS, JETS!

CAROLINA PANTHERS -2.5 vs DALLAS COWBOYS

The Panthers are favorites against the Dallas Cowboys. Say that with me again. The Carolina Panthers are favorites against the Dallas Cowboys. Imagine what this line was projected to be before the season started. Likely at least a touchdown favorite for Dallas. So it’s crazy how the tides have turned and we’re now on the opposite side of the seesaw.

But this line speaks volumes. The Panthers have been playing better football since reinserting QB Bryce Young into the starting role. They’ve covered five straight games including two against top teams in the league such as Philly and KC. As for Dallas, they let a game slip on MNF which virtually takes away their (slim) possibility of making the playoffs. They’ll likely not be as up as they could have been if they won last week. While the Panthers are playing inspired football. Give me Carolina in what would be an upset on paper but not in Vegas.

CLEVELAND BROWNS +5 vs KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

The Chiefs keep winning games that they clearly shouldn’t. And while that is good for their record, they have been a losing team in Vegas all year. Kansas City posts a 12-1 record SU but is 4-9 ATS including six straight losses to the number.

The Browns are a roller coaster mainly because their QB plays with such a reckless abandon. But since Jameis took over the reigns from Deshaun Watson, the Browns are 2-1 ATS at home including two outright wins as an underdog against Pittsburgh and Baltimore.

BONUS DISCORD BET (Posted by 12pm on Sunday): Green Bay Packers -3 (Sunday Night Football)

SURVIVOR PICK

MINNESOTA VIKINGS

The Bears are a mess. They can’t block anyone and their QB holds onto the ball forever. Not a good recipe against Minnesota who are 4th in the NFL with 40 sacks.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

5 months ago 0 comments

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MONDAY NIGHT SHOWDOWN STRATEGY: CINCINNATI BENGALS at DALLAS COWBOYS

Dave Gloeckner 5 months ago

written by Dave Gloeckner

Week 14 of the NFL season wraps up tonight with Monday Night Football. We have a battle of two of the more disappointing teams in the NFL as the 4-8 Bengals travel to the 5-7 Cowboys. As for Win Daily, we’ve had multiple takedowns in the one-game slates, i.e. Showdowns, this year. How many other sites can say that? It’s just proof that the work you put in will produce results! So, let’s keep the hot streak going as we have a good one tonight in a battle between the Bengals and Cowboys. Below is my top DFS showdown picks and strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, helping you build winning lineups.

A note about tonight’s game is that we have a high point spread and low total as Cincy is a 4.5-point favorite with a game total at 49.5. With a high total and moderate spread, we are anticipating a shootout in Big D.

Link: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/

Note on Quarterbacks:

I will not write up the quarterbacks because the wide receiver and tight end section tend to cover the matchups. The QB rankings are at the bottom of the article.

CINCINNATI BENGALS

Running Back

The Bengals started the season with a shared backfield, splitting reps and carries between Zack Moss and Chase Brown. However, there is no longer a sharing of the ball as Chase Brown has taken over the reigns and a full workload. In fact, Brown logged 81% of the offensive snaps last week and 94% of the RB touches. The 81% of snaps was the 4th highest for RB’s in the NFL last week, trailing just Jonathan Taylor, Saquon Barkley and Alvin Kamara. That’s great news for fantasy owners and Brown is getting the snaps and touches in one of the best offenses.

As for his matchup tonight, the Cowboys have been one of the worst rushing defenses all season. They allow the 2nd most rushing yards per game, at 147.6. Additionally, they allow the 7th most fantasy points to RB’s, including the 2nd most rushing TD’s allowed at 14. As for DVOA, they rank the Cowboys as the 5th wors rush defense.

In short, it’s Chase Brown’s backfield and he should be heavily considered as a CPT tonight based on matchup and predicted opportunities.

Tier 1: Chase Brown

Tier 2:

Punt: Khalil Herbert

Wide Receiver

We know the Bengals have firepower at the receiver position, led by Ja’Marr Chase who is 2nd in the NFL with 1,142 receiving yards. Tee Higgins is a great #2 wideout and has scored a touchdown in three straight games. In all, the Bengals lead the league in passing yards per game at 264.4.

As for Dallas, they are ranked 21st in pass defense DVOA. Some of their numbers are misleading as they allow just 212.1 yards per game passing, which is 10th fewest in the NFL. But their pass coverage is rated as the 7th worst. And they could be missing DB Trevon Diggs tonight as he’s listed as questionable.

The Cowboys have been particularly vulnerable against RB’s and TE’s in the passing game. And while #1 WR’s have had some big games against them (McClaurin, Nabers, AJ Brown), the biggest games have come from the #2 WR’s.

Rashid Shaheed (Week 2): 4/96 yards and 1 TD
Wandale Robinson (Week 4): 11/71 yards
Jameson Williams (Week 6): 3/76 yards and 1 TD
Darnell Mooney (Week 9): 5/88 yards and 1 TD

The numbers are there for either Chase or Higgins to have a big game. While I could see both exploding, especially if Diggs is out, I’m going to typically target one of these and pair with QB, RB and TE. Some lineups I will look to do a straight Higgins and Chase plus Burrow without the RB.

Tier 1: Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins

Tier 2: Andrei Iosivas

Punts:

Tight End

Mike Gesicki was shutout 2 weeks ago against the Chargers. But outside of that game, he’s averaging 5.5 catches and 63.5 yards per game over the past 1.5 months.

The Cowboys have allowed six receiving TD’s to TE’s which is good for 5th most in the NFL. Additionally, they have allowed TE’s to catch 77% of their targets, which is 4th highest in the league. So if the Cowboys have to use extra coverage tonight against Chase, I expect Gesicki to be the biggest beneficiary.

Tier 1: Mike Gesicki

Tier 2: Tanner Hudson

Punt/Fadeable:

DALLAS COWBOYS

Running Back

The Cowboys RB situation has been well documented all year, as they chose to sign Ezekial Elliott and pair him with a underused Rico Dowdle instead of targeting a big name free agent RB, like Derek Henry or Saquon Barkley. But the good news is, the ‘Boys have finally settled on Dowdle as their main workhorse and he’s paying off in big ways for fantasy owners. And at the exact right time of year. Last week, Dowdle saw 70% of the snaps and 97% of the touches. In fact, he had the 6th most touches for RB’s in Week 13 with 25. That’s coming off a week in where he saw 22 touches and 88% of the load. So it doesn’t look like a one week occurrence but more a shift in philosophy.

The Bengals have a terrible defense. They’ve allowed 113 points in the past three games, all losses. They allow the 2nd most points per game at 28.3. Additionally, Cincy allows the 5th most yards per game at 369.2. The run defense isn’t good by any measure allowing the 10th most yards on the ground per game at 128.2. They rank in the middle of the pack for fantasy points allowed to RB’s, but the key stat is they’ve surrendered 12 rushing TD’s to backs, good for 5th most.

Tier 1: Rico Dowdle

Tier 2: Ezekial Elliott

Wide Receiver

As noted above, Cincy’s terrible defense shows up in many ways, including the passing game. They allow the 6th most passing yards per game at 241.0. And DVOA has their pass defense ranked as 30th overall.

Even when the matchup presents itself, the Cowboys still throw the ball more than they run. On the season, they throw the ball 66% of the time which is 5th highest in the league. So I fully expect HC Mike McCarthy to drop Cooper Rush back to throw more than 35 times tonight. Which means we’ll need some Cowboy WR’s for our DFS lineups.

The top target is Cee Dee Lamb. And he’s been cleared to play which is good news for Dallas.

But Brandin Cooks returned last week and immediately made an impact by scoring a TD on Thanksgiving Day. He’s going to be involved more heavily tonight and has the chance to put up a big game.

And we must consider KaVontae Turpin who has exploded on the scene of late. Flashing speed like Tyreek Hill, the Boys will try to find ways to get Turpin the ball in space. He even received a rushing attempt last week and we could see Dallas try that again tonight on MNF.

Tier 1: Cee Dee Lamb

Tier 2: Brandin Cooks, KaVontae Turpin

Cheap Options: Jalen Tolbert

Tight End

The Bengals allow the 3rd most fantasy points to TE’s. The big boys have caught 8 TD’s against Cincy’s D, good for 2nd most in the league.

Tier 1: Jake Ferguson

Tier 2: Luke Schoonmaker

FanDuel MVP and DraftKings CPT Picks—FNF Showdown

I want a high-usage player at MVP on FanDuel like Chase Brown, Ja’Marr Chase, Rico Dowdle or Cee Dee Lamb. The QB’s are both in play as Rush and Burrow will look to throw the ball downfield. The salaries do not change from flex to MVP on FanDuel, so the value at the MVP is not a priority. Take the points up top.

On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range. And in this case, that looks to be on the high price range side. I still believe the 2 QB’s are your best options at the CPT spot as well.

FanDuel

FanDuel MVP Tier 1: Joe Burrow, Chase Brown, Ja’Marr Chase, Cee Dee Lamb

FDMVP Tier 2: Rico Dowdle, Cooper Rush, Tee Higgins

FDMVP Tier 3: Mike Gesicki, Jake Ferguson, Brandin Cooks

DraftKings

DraftKings CPT Tier 1: Joe Burrow, Chase Brown, Ja’Marr Chase, Cee Dee Lamb

DK CPT Tier 2: Rico Dowdle, Cooper Rush, Tee Higgins

DK CPT Tier 3: Mike Gesicki, Jake Ferguson, Brandin Cooks

DK CPT Punt: Brandon Aubrey

Best Rules for the slate:

No weather concerns as game is being played in Dallas at AT&T Stadium. Great environment for points. The Cowboys haven’t allowed less than 20 points in a home game this year. And the Bengals are giving up 38 points per game in their last 3.
I’ll have Chase Brown as my most rostered player and highest percentage of CPTs. His volume and time of the field is top 5 in the NFL. And Cowboys are not good against pass catching RB’s.
For the Bengals WR’s, I prefer Higgins to Chase just based on what I believe DC Zimmer will try to do to limit Chase’s touches. And he comes at $2K less in salary on DK. But both are in play.
Joe Burrow leads the NFL with 30 passing TD’s. He has a great matchup tonight and will be played heavily in most of my lineups.
Don’t sleep on Cooper Rush. The Cowboys throw the ball 66% of the time. Russell Wilson passed for over 400 yards against this Bengals D last week.
The Bengals are vulnerable against the long ball. That make Brandin Cooks in play for a big night.
Consider a kicker with the team you have more players on. If someone gets down, they will avoid kicking FG’s.
The Cowboys will need to get KaVontae Turpin the ball at least 4 times. He’s a home run threat every time he touches it. And you can get him at a great price.
Like Brown, this is Rico Dowdle’s backfield and no one else. Great upside based on volume and opponent.
Don’t sleep on the TE’s. Both at under $6K is good value and you can fit them in with 2-3 players up top.

Favorite prop for the game: TBD

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

5 months ago 0 comments

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Sunday’s Best NFL DFS Core Plays: GPP Building Blocks – Week 14

David Jones 5 months ago

written by David Jones

*I’ll be updating this article on Sunday morning Sunday Updates

Adding Elijah Moore and Jerry Jeudy to the pool. Moore should have an easier path based on primary coverage, but that doesnt mean Winston won’t hurl in to Jeudy at an alarming rate.
George Pickens is out. Calvin Austin and Van Jefferson are great value options.

Quarterback Rankings

Aidan O’Connell
Tua Tagovailoa
Jalen Hurts
Aaron Rodgers

Running Backs

Zach Charbonnet

He is your chalk du jour in Week 14 that you can not avoid. With Kenneth Walker being ruled a surprise out after the slate salaries locked, Charbonnett snuck in with a $4,800 salary. Arizona has been middle of the pack when defending the run this season and is certainly no one to avoid with an underpriced workhorse like Charbonnett, who will also get work in the passing game. When Walker was out earlier this season, ZC averaged 21.8 DK points per game over two games. Lock him in and move on.

Isaac Guerendo

Whenever Guerendo ($5,400) has gotten a decent workload, he has looked good. In Week 6, he rattled off 99 yards on ten carries (which included a 76-yard run), and in Week 8, he stacked up 88 all-purpose yards and a TD on 14 carries and three receptions. The matchup is good against the Bears. As of Week 13, the Bears are ranked 30^th in DVOA against the run.

Here is a juicy stat that MagicSportsGuy found digging and shot over to me. When filtering rushing stats among RBs with 40+ carries (Guerendo has 42), he is 2^nd (behind Barkley) in yards before contact. Also, 9.5% of his runs go for 10+ yards. This is elite. For example, Jahmyr Gibbs is 1^st with 11.2%). The Bears are dead last in yards before contact is allowed.

The one thing that worries me is the 49ers will still be without Trent Williams. That doesn’t help the run game, but at Guerendo’s salary and matchup, I will not overthink it. He is a great salary saver on a slate where spending down at RB is going to be the popular way to build, for good reason.

Braelon Allen

With Breece Hall ruled out, we get another super salary saver in Braelon Allon ($5,000). This guy had a stint of basically splitting carries with Hall until the Head Coaching change for New York. Allen is an extremely talented back and should get plenty of opportunities with how poorly the passing game has been for the Jets. He will also get a handful of receiving opportunities from Aaron Rodgers. Miami is 25^th in DVOA against the run while allowing 11 rushing and three receiving TDs over 12 games to the running back.

Saquon Barkley

He plays the Panthers. If he averages 167 rush yards per game over the next three games, he will break Dickerson’s record in 16 games. After the game against Carolina, he will know if that is a real possibility with the Steelers and Commanders on deck. Expect a huge dose of Barkley, but it is hard to pay up there with all the RB value we have. Then you must also worry about Jalen Hurts vulturing inside the 5-yard line with the tush push. I pulled the most rush attempts inside the five converted for a touchdown, and wouldn’t you know it, the Panthers are the worst on the slate. If that plays out again, that benefits Hurts, but if Barkley continues to break huge runs, that will not matter. Barkley would need to be the highest scorer on the slate for the play to make sense, but he certainly has a chance.

Others to consider: I have nothing bad to say about any of these guys.

Alvin Kamara
Bucky Irving
De’Von Achane

I don’t see myself getting away from these 7 RBs, even in my MME lineups. It is a three-RB week on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

Wide Receiver

Mike Evans

Mike Evans needs to average 96 yards per game for the rest of the season to continue his 1,000-yard season streak. He takes on the Las Vegas Raiders, 25^th in DVOA against receivers while being ranked 15^th against the WR1. With no other Tampa Bay Buc stepping up in the passing game aside from Cade Otton and Tampa all of a sudden in a position to steal the NFC South, Evans should get fed again. Despite Evans missing a month of playing time, the Buccaneers are still tied for the 4^th highest rate of touchdown conversions in the red zone. Evans, or Otton, will be the first look for Baker Mayfield when inside the 20-yard line.

Jakobi Meyers

He is a target monster taking on a secondary we have been picking on all season at only $5,600. Easy play.

Drake London

The Minnesota Vikings allow the most fantasy points to wide receivers (42 per game). This week, Kirk Cousins returns to Minnesota to try and snap the Falcons out of a losing steak. That may or may not happen, but one thing is for sure: Cousins will sling it. Drake London was a fantasy darling the first half of the season, but now he is all of a sudden forgotten after poor QB play and a bye week. He maxed out his salary at $7,200 on DraftKings but has fallen back down to only $6,400. London is the highest-targeted wide receiver in the NFL inside the 20-yard line at 46.2%. That is insane. To be fair to the Vikings, they have the third-lowest red zone conversion rate at home in the NFL. Honestly, I just like the price and the potential game script for London.

Miami Dolphins

Sauce Gardner is doubtful. C.J. Mosley is done for the year. The Dolphins should be able to throw it, as well as run it here. With evaluating all the Dolphins (Achane, Hill, Waddle, Smith) salaries, you probably want at least one piece, if not a full-on stack. There are no primary matchups to target or avoid, as everything seems pretty wide open for Tua and the boys. Jonnu Smith is the easiest, most reliable play. Tyreek Hill is the mega upside play, and Waddle appears underpriced at $5,400. I will run at least one Tua stack and see where I land on the leaderboard.

Malik Nabers

He has the third-highest target rate in the NFL, behind Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp, and that has been sustained going through three different quarterbacks. He is in a great spot against the New Orleans secondary, he plays. If not, then there is going to be some Giants WR value opening up with guys like Wan’Dale Robinson and Darius Slayton. Both of which I almost wrote up at the beginning of the week, with Nabers projected in just due to how poorly the Saints can be at defending the pass.

George Pickens

Cleveland is ranked 27^th in DVOA against the pass. They are ranked 30^th against the WR1, allowing 85.2 yards per game (3^rd worst in the NFL). I have some concerns about it getting chippy with Greg Newsom, which could result in PI instead of a completion, but we are not dealing with a shadow situation here. Pickens also popped up on the injury report Friday with a hamstring injury, but that is more than likely just a rest day.

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine: DraftKings
Calvin Ridley: FanDuel

There is a $1,000 gap on the receivers on DraftKings and a $100 gap on FanDuel. If you want to play NWI, DraftKings is the spot.

We have to take a step back, like we did last week, and realize that Nick Westbrook-Ikhine is a legit offensive threat now. Don’t judge him on previous seasons, judge him on what you are seeing this season. He just keeps producing as the Titans WR2 with DeAndre Hopkins out of town. Now NWI takes on the Jaguars, who are ranked dead last against the WR2, while at the same time, he has been the most reliable WR2 in the game the past eight weeks. That is no longer a small sample size. His salary is up (but not high enough), but so is his production. If this guy’s name was different, he would be priced as a top-10 WR based on production alone.

Calvin Ridley is criminally underpriced at $5,700 on DraftKings. He and NWI both play on the outside the most, so technically, they both have a very similar matchup. I am good with sticking either Titans WR in your last WR slot, depending on whatever salary slot you are trying to fill.

Keenan Allen

Good if D.J. Moore is in. It would be great if D.J. Moore is out. $5,600 on DraftKings is just too low, especially with the injuries the 49ers are dealing with.

Jets

Seeing both Davante Adams and Garrett Wilson as cheap as they are is just odd. The same goes for Aaron Rodgers. Perhaps there is some merit to stacking them in the Milly Maker against Miami. With whispers of Aaron Rodgers getting benched and the Jets in the most literal must-win situation that exists in the NFL, perhaps we see one last gasp from the once-elite quarterback and his still-elite duo of Adams and Wilson. Breece Hall being ruled out doesn’t hurt either.

Jauan Jennings

The Bears let Jaylon Johnson handle the best receiver on the team when said receiver isn’t a primary slot receiver. Jauan Jennings runs the most out of the slot (45%) and is technically the WR2 behind Deebo Samuel (37% slot routes). Samuel should see Johnson coverage slightly more (not exclusively), and Jennings has a higher target rate and YPRR anyway. Chicago is ranked 31^st against the WR2, largely due to what I will call the “Johnson Effect. George Kittle should also benefit, maybe the most.

Others to consider:

Justin Jefferson
Marquez Valdes-Scantling

Tight End

Brock Bowers

The best tight end in the league, who has the highest average targets per game (9.4), takes on the 31^st-ranked defense against the position. Tampa allows the third most fantasy points to tight ends on the slate.

Jonnu Smith

He just keeps getting it done. That’s enough.

Others to consider:

George Kittle
T.J. Hockenson
Juwan Johnson

Others to consider:

Again, I will update this article if anything changes. Be sure to come back and check for the most up-to-date plays.

5 months ago 0 comments

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