Well, another NFL Season is in the books. 14 teams remain in contention for the Lombardy Trophy in New Orleans in just over a month from now. It’s win or go home as we enter the Wild Card round where we’ll only get six games sprinkled over the weekend until Monday Night. Here we will look at salaries and who to roster for DFS in each matchup, so let’s cut right to the meat and potatoes. We’ll only focus on GPP plays during the playoffs since the player pools have been cut down drastically allowing us better chances of taking down tournaments.
Stay tuned for all our injury news, updates, and Discord-building advice. Also, check out our Optimizer and Projection Models to get the best possible performance from your lineups. Also, check back into the article during the week as we approach kickoff for more content, as more game breakdowns will be available as we approach Monday Night.
Saturday Slate 1/11/25
Chargers @ Texans (+3) (U/O 42.5)
The fourth and fifth seeds collide to kick off the playoffs in Texas as the Chargers play the Texans. LA is back to full strength with the return of running back JK Dobbins from IR. He looked spry in his first game back carrying the ball 18 times for 63 yards while adding three catches for 12. Meanwhile, the Texans ended their season on a high note against a cupcake matchup between the Titans, who allowed quarterback CJ Stroud to find the endzone on his first and only series in the finale of the season.
As home underdogs, Houston will face a Chargers defense that was ranked number one overall in points allowed for the season. They’ll face an uphill road to the endzone as they’ve been short-handed at receiver with no reliable other than Nico Collins. Texans’ running back Joe Mixon seems to have fallen off a cliff towards the end of the regular season, as he hasn’t seen over 100 yards rushing since Week 13 after starting on fire. However, the Chargers are a team that refuses their opponents to run the football, as their DVOA is 7th to opposing backs. Paying up for Nico Collins and Joe Mixon along with paying down for Stroud would be pretty risky in DFS this week, consider paying a reasonable salary at the tight end for Dalton Schultz ($3,600 on DK) to get different in GPPs.
LA enters the contest as a favorite to win on the road, thanks to their tight defense, play calling, and Justin Herbert returning to his gunslinger role while JK Dobbins was injured. Now that Dobbins appears to be back, the Chargers may have a lock into the Divisional Round if they can hold up defensively to a Texans’ team that has struggled to find the end zone recently. But with Dobbins back on the injury report with an ankle issue, Herbert may be asked once again to air it out. Houston’s DVOA ranks 20th through the passing game, so it’s an arrow in the right direction for Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston, and Will Dissly. If you’re looking to pivot and get different in this matchup, Derius Davis at $3,300 will be on the field quite a bit as he replaces Josh Palmer at WR3, and he’s scored double-digit fantasy points in two of his last three games.
GPP: Justin Herbert, Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston, Will Dissly, JK Dobbins (if healthy), Dalton Schultz, Derius Davis
Update: Quentin Johnson and Josh Palmer still not practicing, DJ Chark is now a pivot at wide receiver
Steelers @ Ravens (-10) (U/O 43.5)
Next, we head over to the AFC North where the third and sixth seeds will battle it out as the Steelers take on the Ravens Saturday Night. It’ll be a cold night in Baltimore where two top defenses will go at it giving us a low 43-point total, but Pittsburgh’s puttering offense led by Russell Wilson ended up making them ten-point dogs on the road. The Ravens bring a lot to the table and have been lighting it up on both sides of the ball, forcing the Steelers to go big or go home this weekend.
Pittsburgh will face the number-one-ranked run defense in Baltimore, a team that has only allowed 80 yards rushing this season. This diminishes Najee Harris’ production but could elevate Jaylen Warren in the third-down role catching passes out of the flat. The Steelers in order to win will need to get the ball into the hands of their best player-George Pickens. Last week was a gross in the game against Cincinnati, with one catch for zero yards. He made a lot of fantasy managers, including myself very unhappy. Expect a bounce-back week in the Wild Card as Tomlin and Arthur Smith will scheme to have Russell Wilson get him the football against a Ravens’ secondary that has allowed over 4,100 passing yards in 2024.
Baltimore will continue to roll out the number-one rushing offense until it can be stopped, even against one of the most put-together defenses led by TJ Watt. Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry continue to punish opposing tackles and linemen with their ability to run their RPO down their throats. When Baltimore does decide to throw the ball, it’s been all Mark Andrews and Rashod Bateman towards the end of the regular season. Zay Flowers has not practiced this week after suffering a knee injury in the closing game against Cleveland, so expect more usage from Bateman and Andrews if Flowers sits out Saturday. Isaiah Likely and Tylan Wallace (73% of the snaps in Week 18) will also see a bump if Flowers is out, and provide some decent leverage in GPP tournaments if they land in the endzone.
GPP: Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, Mark Andrews, Baltimore DST, Rashod Bateman, Jaylen Warren, George Pickens, Isaiah Likely, Tylan Wallace
Update: Zay Flowers is OUT
Sunday Slate 1/12/25
Broncos @ Bills (-8.5) (U/O 47.5)
Day two of the Wild Card Round of 2025 will kick off in Buffalo as the Bills host the Broncos. Rookie Bo Nix will lead his team across the country alongside head coach Sean Payton as huge underdogs on the road. The weather forecast will be cold, with a possibility of snow, which could affect the total if it does begin to fall. Josh Allen and the Bills will be well rested after sitting out most of Week 18 and should be ready to wipe the floor with Denver.
For DFS on the Broncos side, do not be so quick to take the discount at quarterback for Bo Nix. He had a huge Week 18 that propelled his team into the playoffs, but it was against a Chiefs’ defense that rested everybody. Asking a rookie to take on a juggernaut of defense on the road will be a big task, as the Bills will be ready to put on the pressure. Courtland Sutton and Marvin Mims have been his top targets, grabbing six touchdowns combined in their last two games, so they should see plenty of attention. Devaughn Vele plays the most snaps next to Sutton and could have his own big day if the defense focuses on his teammates.
Buffalo, we know where our bagels are buttered for DFS, and it’s the NFL’s QB-1, Josh Allen. If you can fit him in a lineup that works for you, then roll with it. He’s the ultimate dual threat at quarterback, who loves to spread out the passing targets. It’s tough to pinpoint who will be on the receiving end for the Bills in every matchup, so for DFS it’s best to pay down on their receivers. Amari Cooper has fallen to $4,900 on DraftKings, not because of talent but for availability. He’s been away from the team attending to a family matter but will suit up and has been back to practice this week.
James Cook is a smart pivot if you feel like fading Allen because of the Broncos’ defense. The second-year back landed in the endzone 18 times this season and could see more visits on Sunday afternoon if the Broncos can contain the Bills’ passing game and deploy a spy on Allen. The Bills’ DST also makes a nice stack alongside Cook, especially if Denver’s offense cannot get off the ground and Cook gets extra reps to eat off the clock.
GPP: Josh Allen, James Cook, Amari Cooper, Bills DST, Devaughn Vele, Khalil Shakir, Courtland Sutton
Packers @ Eagles (-4.5) (U/O 45.5)
We’ll head back over to the NFC for Sunday afternoon as the Packers take on the Eagles in Philadelphia. Both teams have suffered some injuries to the starting quarterback position to close out the regular season, yet both of them have been cleared to play are Jalen Hurts and Jordan Love. Starting either this week for DFS would be a high-risk, high reward if this game becomes a shootout.
The Eagles enter this game as nearly five-point favorites but have been very cautious with Jalen Hurts’ concussion he suffered back in Week 16. This being his first game in three weeks, I expect the staff to curb his rushing attempts and have Saquon Barkley shoulder the bulk of carries, who should be well-rested after sitting out last week. Paying up for AJ Brown who may see plenty of Jaire Alexander could also be risky, so consider DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert who are safely priced much less than Brown and could produce the same value.
Green Bay has ridden the coattails of Josh Jacobs all season long, as he was sixth in the league in carries and rushing yards, along with 16 total touchdowns. They’ve become a run-first offense even with all the talent they have in their receiving core. Philadelphia however, will be waiting in the wings for their approach, and their defense is second in DVOA to opposing running backs, allowing only 104 yards per game this season. The Pack will need to move the chains through the air, so a lot will rest on Love’s shoulders. They’ll be without Christian Watson, so the next man up will be Dontayvion Wicks, whose price on DraftKings is a mere $4,500. Tucker Kraft also gets an arrow up with the Watson injury.
Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, DeVonta Smith, AJ Brown, Dallas Goedert, Dontayvion Wicks, Tucker Kraft, Eagles DST
Commanders @ Bucs (-3) (U/O 50.5)
Here we land in the highest total of the weekend as the sixth-seeded Commanders go head-to-head with the third-seeded Bucs in sunny Florida. It will be a popular game, especially for DFS as we’ll see some players with reasonable salaries set to be in some smash-spots fantasy-wise. Vegas also sees it as a close game with only the standard 3-point spread so yes stack this game if you like, even in a Sat-Mon contest.
Jayden Daniels of the Commanders delivers for DFS from week to week, when will he come down to earth? I don’t see that happening until next season, since this Bucs’ defense has been walked all over. The second overall pick in this year’s draft will feast on a Tampa secondary ranked 29th in the league in passing yardage. His legs are his most dangerous weapons, racking up close to 900 yards with six rushing scores. Pair him with McLaurin or Olamide Zaccheaus, who has crushed his value in recent weeks posting 24 and 23.3 fantasy points. Even more value lies in the Washington offense with Zach Ertz and Austin Ekeler, both in the $4K range on DraftKings and perfectly fine in this game environment.
As much as I love Daniels in this spot, I love Mayfield just as much. He’s $700 cheaper than Daniels and because of the Bucs’ defense, he’ll be forced to carry the load once again. Now we all know Mike Evans has been his go-to guy, but he’ll face his arch nemesis at cornerback Marshon Lattimore for another tough battle. Evans has struggled over the years against Lattimore, catching for only a total of 40 yards with three catches in two separate games. Taking on Jalen McMillan or Cade Otton at a discount may be the safer way to stack Baker, but I will never tell you to not take a shot on the future Hall of Famer Mike Evans. Both backs are useful in Tampa with Rachaad White and Bucky Irving, though the latter has taken over the backfield and would consider paying up for Irving who has seen a bigger role here in January (72% of the snaps in Week 18)
GPP: Jayden Daniels, Baker Mayfield, Terry McLaurin, Mike Evans, Olamide Zaccheaus, Jalen McMillan, Cade Otton, Zach Ertz, Austin Ekeler, Bucky Irving.
Monday Night 1/13/25
Vikings @ Rams (+1.5) (U/O 46.5)
Finally, to wrap up the Playoffs Weekend we get the Rams hosting the Vikings on Monday Night. Whether you’re playing a Showdown or a Multi-Day Tournament, you’ll want to find pieces of this game in your lineups. LA’s game will be played in Arizona because of the tragic fires, which may hype the Rams up or drag them down because of the recent events. The Vikings are coming off a disappointing loss to Detroit last Sunday Night and will be looking for a get-right spot in the postseason.
The Rams will be ready and rested after sitting out their main players in Week 18 to prepare for the playoffs. Hopefully, Matt Stafford can get back on track with a solid outing after being in a slump since Week 16. He hasn’t thrown a touchdown pass or passed for over 200 yards in his last three games, so wake up Matt. When he does complete passes, it’s been all Puca Nacua or dump-offs to Kyren Willams in the backfield, while Cooper Kupp has disappeared from the scheme. Until we see some light from Stafford, stick with Williams and Nacua in your mullti-slate lineups while in Showdowns prioritize Nacua against the 32nd in DVOA to opposing receivers in your Captain/MVP slot.
Sam Darnold caught a few lumps in the big Sunday Night closer in Detroit, which led the Vikings to become a road team possibly throughout their postseason. But that was one game, and let’s give credit where it is due. Minnesota is a great football team that has won 14 games, and they will show us why on Monday night. The weapons are all on hand for Darnold, which rejuvenated his career. Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, TJ Hockenson, and Aaron Jones are all able to make their marks in the postseason, especially against a Rams team that may be mentally exhausted from the fires in California
GPP: Puca Nacua, Kyren Williams, Cooper Kupp, Aaron Jones, Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, TJ Hockenson, Matt Stafford
Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game-by-Game Breakdown for the Wild Card Weekend! Remember to check back daily for more updates and content until kickoff. You can reach me on X @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord, tag me @DiCarlo78, for any lineup build opinions or questions. I’m always here to help! Gain access to our projection models and jump into our Discord, where our experts and I will talk about plays across every sport 24/7/365!
