Developing projections within a model is a major key to formulating success while playing Daily Fantasy Football. Projections are defined by Merriam-Webster’s dictionary as, “an estimate of future possibilities based on the current trend.” The projections create a foundation for your DFS roster construction and give insights on the range of outcomes specific players offer on any given slate. The top DFS players utilize projections to give them an edge against the competition. So to succeed in the DFS space it is critical to have at least some input from projections. It can be the true attribute that can separate you from the field, especially in the long-term. All projection models are different and we will review what goes into a successful projection model and the types of data that it can show.
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Daily Fantasy Football projections will never be 100% accurate; rather it gives DFS players a range of outcomes from a floor to a ceiling. Creating projections is about inserting statistics and data of known quantities in order to predict future performance. We all have access for the most part to the same statistics, but which ones you choose and how heavy each is weighed is what makes each model different. In your projection model, how much is one factor impacting the end projection? It can take some time to develop the right formulas through overall research to go along with basic trial and error. This is where the fun begins.
Because we have access to so much data, we can actually check the accuracy of our projections. If things seem like they are way off, based on the real outcome it is time to make a change. A projection model will never be perfect, but should always continue to be tweaked. Utilizing a projection model is part of the Daily Fantasy Football process and needs to be optimized constantly. Has it been a while since you won? Then you need to check your process and make adjustments to your model. Especially in regards to NFL DFS, where the variance is at the highest as compared to the MLB and NBA. Also, the challenge with NFL DFS projections is that the smaller sample size proves to be a disadvantage. But that is why you must continue to add to your model as more data is accessible.
“You are what you eat.” Essentially this is true about a projection model. If you add poor statistics with little weight on outcomes that are of relevance to Daily Fantasy Football, the model will not lead to success. Adding information especially from Sportsbooks can be extremely beneficial. Adding figures like team totals can be useful in creating accurate projections. Remember these totals already consider the likes of weather and player injuries; making it much easier to update projections and weigh other factors accordingly.
It also makes it easier to win player props such as those offered on Monkey Knife Fight. If your projection on a player vastly differs from a player prop offered, then you have a great chance to expose it. Especially if in the projection model the outcome comes in as a forecasted floor.
Fundamentally the data should consider and factor in player salaries as well; with the goal in mind finding the best value of a player projection. You should also be considering their price tag and ownership percentage.
At the end of the day, using a Daily Fantasy Football projection model removes any emotional ties you may have to players. The numbers are concrete and can provide a clear lens of how players will perform without any biases. It also provides a baseline on what to expect from the slate from an over-arching level, and with that values are much easier to identify and expose. But what makes one projection model different from another is what goes into it. It’s about finding what factors are true indicators of the future (or at least closest to it).
Every single week, there is so much variance in the NFL. Matchups can be heavily favored based on what defense the offense faces that week. For example, in a projection model for quarterbacks, I would highly weigh the opposing defense because there is a clear correlation between bottom-ranked pass defenses and quarterback fantasy points. Identifying these correlations and how they relate to fantasy points is the key part of your projection model process. Behind every strong Daily Fantasy Football player, you are sure to find a strong projection model.
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