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Win Daily Sports: Hall of Fame Game DFS Breakdown Cowboys at Steelers

Uriah Wesson
written by Uriah Wesson

If there is one thing that I know, it is that regardless of the context, who is playing, or when it is. If there is an NFL game, you want in on the action and it is our job to provide you with the knowledge needed to have a successful night. So I started digging through the minuscule amount of info that we are dealing with to make a Win Daily Sports: Hall of Fame Game DFS Breakdown Cowboys at Steelers. We will hopefully get some more information regarding playing time closer to kickoff so be sure to be in discord tonight and head over to our YouTube channel to be sure you get the most up-to-date information as we sit down to watch the first NFL game of the year.

Strategy:

If you are new to preseason DFS there are some things that you need to be aware of so you are not just flushing your money down the toilet. First, you are going to be playing a guy largely based on the amount of time that you think they will be on the field. This means most, if not all of the starters should not be in your roster with exception of when a team chooses to have their “dress rehearsal” game when starters may play a half. Second, the pricing is all the same so value is irrelevant. If you choose to play, it is going to be ugly, plain, and simple. Third and most importantly, when we are trying to glean information from training camp, OTA’s, and interviews from coaches for preseason games we are speculating……..A LOT. There are going to be players on your DFS team that you have never heard of and will likely never see again. If you are not comfortable with the potential for goose eggs because a coach randomly changes their mind on playing a guy there is nothing wrong with simply enjoying the Hall of Fame game as a fan. With that pretext in place, let’s go.

Running Backs in this particular game is something that I would advise caution on. The last thing a head coach will want to do is damage the depth of their RB units and both teams already know who their first and second string guys are so you will be lucky to get more than a half dozen carries from any one back. I can see both Tomlin and McCarthy wanting to evaluate their depth at QB and WR much more due to the issues both teams dealt with in 2019 and 2020. You are also reducing the risk of linemen and backs getting injured in the piles you would see if they took a run-heavy approach. So my approach will be to focus on the depth around both quarterbacks and pass catchers to optimize my lineups.

**All playing time info is subject to change so be on discord before kickoff**

Starters out:

Cowboys: Dak Prescott, Amari Cooper, Blake Jarwin, Greg Zuerlein Steelers: Ben Roethlisberger

Likely out but not confirmed:

Cowboys: Ezekial Elliott, Michael Gallup (Ankle), CeeDee Lamb, Tony Pollard, Dalton Shultz Steelers: Diontae Johnson, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Chase Claypool, Eric Ebron, Pat Freirmuth (Shoulder Injury), Benny Snell (undisclosed injury)

Win Daily Sports: Hall of Fame Game DFS Breakdown Cowboys at Steelers

Quarterbacks:

Mason Rudolph:

Mason has been named the starter in tonight’s game so I have to list him on here. But the Steelers also know exactly what he will give them so I am expecting at most a quarter of play. They would be better off getting a long look at what Haskins and Dobbs can provide.

Joshua Dobbs, Steelers:

Dobbs is expected to get most if not all of the second-half run in tonight’s contest. Granted he will be playing with third, fourth, and fifth string guys fighting for roster spots but he will be going against the same caliber players on the defensive side. Volume is key tonight and Dobbs has a good amount of value with his legs as well. There is a chance that he is the highest-scoring QB this evening but read below on Haskins. There is some interesting info coming out.

Dwayne Haskins, Steelers:

There have been….rumblings. Rumblings that there may be something more to Dwayne than the poor play and maturity issues that have plagued him early in his career. The Steelers appear to be talking about Haskins being the guy to replace Ben when he decides to call it a career. It is all rumor but if he comes in at the start of the second quarter and lights it up they may let him continue into the third quarter and show Steelers nation what their future may hold. He looked terrible in Washington but to partially come to his defense, Washington has been dysfunctional and damn near broken long before he set foot on the field.

Garrett Gilbert, Cowboys:

Gilbert according to reports will be the starter for the Cowboys tonight but there has not been anything reported so far to indicate playing time for any of the three QB’s for Dallas but I think McCarthy is going to give Gilbert the first half just to be sure that he is capable of being the guy if Dak Prescott misses any time in the 2021 season. in an emergency last season he did reasonably well given the lack of preparation going 21 of 38 for 243 yards and a TD and adding a little with his legs with 28 yards rushing.

Win Daily Sports: Hall of Fame Game DFS Breakdown Cowboys at Steelers

Running Backs:

Najee Harris, Steelers:

Coach Tomlin has already stated that Harris is a rookie and that he will play in all four preseason games to get comfortable with NFL speed and game preparation for the regular season. We all know what he brings to the table so we need to evaluate playing time. In 2018 in James Connor’s second season and first, where he was the confirmed starter he played in three series and carried the ball four times for 25 yards. I anticipate Tomlin to limit the amount of contact he sustains, but there is an outside chance against this porous Cowboys defense that they could have a long drive that ends in a score early. The best case scenario is around 6-8 carries and maybe a reception. No need to risk your workhorse right out of the gate.

Kalen Ballage, Steelers:

I know, I know, it is Kalen Ballage. But it is preseason and it sounds like the Steelers want to give him a long look this preseason. They seem to be losing faith in Samuels and this game may go a long way towards determining if he ends up replacing him on the 53 man roster. His reps are growing through training camp at the expense of Jaylen and Kalen has proven himself to be capable (albeit mediocre) in both the run game and in catching the ball out of the backfield.

Win Daily Sports: Hall of Fame Game DFS Breakdown Cowboys at Steelers

Wide Receivers:

Malik Turner, Cowboys:

From all indications the Cowboys have been impressed with Turner during OTA’s and training camp and it is looking like he will get an extended run tonight to evaluate whether or not he will make the roster come week one. Looking back on his time in Seattle he looked solid at times and was surprisingly good in scramble scenarios working his way into open zones to create positive play opportunities for Russell Wilson so I can see why Dallas may want to take a long look.

Cody White, Steelers:

After a full 2020 season on the practice squad and most starters expected to miss the game the Steelers are looking to take a long look at Cody White to see if he can make the final 53 man roster. You have to go back to his Michigan State film but the 6’3″ receiver showed a knack for hanging on to passes in traffic and the bigger size will be something that the QB’s will likely look to during scramble drills and red zone scenarios.

Win Daily Sports: Hall of Fame Game DFS Breakdown Cowboys at Steelers

Tight Ends:

I’m just doing a standard blurb here. All three of these guys will see a lot of playing time tonight with no starting tight ends expected to play. Of the three Gentry is the tight end I have the most interest in. He had a knack for exploiting seam routes for huge gains when playing for Michigan and has just enough speed to get behind safeties and linebackers. Being 6’8″ also provides a nice back of the end zone target if we get any scoring opportunities.

Zach Gentry, Steelers:

Kevin Rader, Steelers:

Jeremy Sprinkle, Cowboys:

It is finally time folks and I hope you got some good info out of our Win Daily Sports: Hall of Fame Game DFS Breakdown Cowboys at Steelers. It is time to start digging into DFS and make sure that we have our processes in place for a successful 2021 NFL campaign. Any questions about the article, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

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NFL

Win Daily Sports: Way too Early Week 1 NFL DFS Breakdown

Uriah Wesson
written by Uriah Wesson

You already know how the DFS world works, we like to overreact at any piece of news and dissect it before we get the full picture. We all jump in and start digging in when the time comes. Guess what? Draftkings has released pricing for week one! So let us all dive in and overreact together, see where the prices look like good areas to attack and quickly change our minds an hour before kickoff. Be sure to check out our rankings page for season long when you get done here as well as hop into discord and tell us where you would go in week one. Here is our Win Daily Sports: Way too Early Week 1 NFL DFS Breakdown.

As you already know, we have no idea how injuries, weather, and even training camp will change everything (see my QB choice). This is just for fun, something to wet our whistle and start the conversation in discord. A few guys that interest me and a little explainer as to why for week 1.

Quarterbacks:

Ryan Tannehill. Titans, $6,500:

Consistently disrespected Ryan finds himself as the 8th highest-priced quarterback coming into week one. A quarterback who can run, throw, has two top-flight receivers, is arguably the most dominant running back in the league, and is statistically on par with Mahomes over the past two years. He gets a paced-up matchup against a spread offense Cardinals team who put up points in bunches. While people rightfully gravitate to Murray (rightfully so), why not take the other side, with a similar upside for $1,100 less.

Carson Wentz: RIP

Matt Ryan, Falcons, $6,000:

Matt Ryan had a ton of issues last season. No time to throw, multiple receiver injuries, and there was no run game to speak of to keep the defenses honest. Even with that Ryan threw for 4,500 yards and 26 TDs with a 65% completion percentage. I know Julio is gone but Arthur Davis will establish very early that these aren’t the Falcons that you are used to. The O-Line will be better (stop laughing), you will not see many three and four wide sets (Davis runs more 2-3 TE sets than any coach in the league), and to be honest, I think gauge was always going to be the second receiver in this offense because of Davis so the trade was smart. In week one the combination of two capable tight ends, Calvin Ridley, Russell Gage, and a capable receiving back in Mike Davis can very easily overwhelm the worst secondary in the NFC. The Falcons won the week one lottery playing against the Eagles so I could see myself having shares of Ryan.

Sam Darnold, Panthers, $5,000:

Stop laughing. Stop it. Stop. It makes sense. Here’s the fun part of my way too early plays. He played on the Jets….For Adam Gase. Anyone who managed to get away from old googly eyes takes a huge step forward almost immediately regardless of where they go. Now I’m telling you he not only escaped, but he also gets the most dynamic running back in the NFL in Christian McCaffrey, a better coach, o-line, and two receivers who exceeded 1,000 yards last season with Teddy Bridgewater. Oh and one of those receivers is Robby Anderson, a receiver he already has chemistry with from when he escaped New York a year earlier. The best part is his week one opponent…..The New York Jets. There would be nothing more poetic to watch him go ham against his former team in his very first game in a Panthers uniform.

Running Backs:

Joe Mixon, Bengals, $6,200:

I love, love, love this spot for Mixon in week one. He has been quietly and patiently dealing with crap teams and injuries since arriving in 2017. It paid off in a nice little extension through 2024 and while the Bengals did the Bengal thing and took a receiver in the first round but they do have some decent pieces in Jonah Williams, Trey Hopkins, and second-round pick in Jackson Carman anchoring the Bengals line. If there is even any improvement there and Mixon stays healthy we can see the second half stat lines of 2019 as the floor in terms of volume and output for the duration of 2021. With everyone talking about players like Higgins, Burrow, and Chase one thing that has gone a little under the radar is that the Bengals let Bernard go. That means Mixon now gets the passing down work as well. I said all of that and I failed to mention that in week one he gets the WORST run defense in the NFC in the Vikings.

Nick Chubb, Browns, $7,200:

This guy missed five games with an MCL injury and turned around and rushed for over 1,000 yards on 190 carries. While sharing the backfield with another good back. 7.2K is “high” in terms of price overall but everyone (including the Browns) know that to have any chance against the Chiefs you need to control the ground. If they do not give Chubb 20+ carries in this specific contest they are clearly not paying attentions. Give it to the guy who led the NFL in yards per carry.

Wide Receivers

Robby Anderson, Panthers, $5,700:

Everything that I said about Darnold. Ditto for Anderson. You just know these guys want to take out years of pent-up frustration on the Jets front office for making them deal with what may have been the worst head coach in the history of the NFL.

Randall Cobb, Packers, $3,900:

I am listing Cobb for one reason and one reason only. Aaron Rodgers is petty enough to hammer Cobb with targets for 60 minutes as a gigantic middle finger to the Packers front office just to show them what could have been. An added benefit, while Davante Adams gets Marshon Lattimore, Randle Cobb gets either Malcolm Jenkins or PJ Williams. I’m completely fine picking on either.

Tight-Ends

Irv Smith Jr, Vikings, 4,200:

My final way too early guy is one you already know if you have talked to me at all during best ball season. I am all in on this guy. He is big, strong, and fast. Now he goes into season three which is usually the year tight ends make their leap forward without Kyle Rudolph in his way. If you watched any Vikings games last year you also saw that he lined up quite a bit on the outside towards the end of the season and created matchup nightmares. The Bengals last season gave up yards in bunches to tight ends like Mike Gesicki (9/88/1), Zach Ertz (7/70/0), and Evan Engram (6/129/0) and Irv is just as talented as any of them.

Mock Lineup:

Relax Draftkings. This is simply a mock lineup in July. I’m not giving out my picks. The structure is clearly not perfect. Also, RIP Michael Pittman due to Carson Wentz…

Hope you enjoyed Win Daily Sports: Way too Early Week 1 NFL DFS Breakdown. Like I said in the beginning, this is simply a conversation starter. It is something that we can look at, think about the season that will be, and have a little fun with some banter. Any questions about the article, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

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NFL

Win Daily Sports 2021 NFL Fantasy Sleepers

Uriah Wesson
written by Uriah Wesson

If you have been playing fantasy sports for a while I am sure that you have heard someone say something along the lines of “you win your leagues in the mid-late rounds of your draft”. While there are a lot of things that go into a successful season I largely agree with the adage. In your first couple of rounds you usually know what your players are going to do. Sure there are injuries and crazy flukes where a player will drastically underperform here and there but most of the time they are not going to ruin you.

Where you make your gains and separate yourself from the competition is making the right choices in your waivers/faab bids and in your late round players who breakout at just the right time. What I am going to do below is give you a handful of guys at each position that I think are going a little under the radar and will exceed the draft position that you can get them at right now. Let us not waste anymore time and get into Win Daily Sports 2021 NFL Fantasy Sleepers

My definition of sleeper:

We all have slightly different view on what a sleeper so I want to make sure that you know what mine is. Simply put, it is a player that I expect to perform at least one tier above where they are being selected. A wide receiver who is being drafted as a WR3 performing as a borderline WR1/2. A quarterback who is going as the 25th QB off the board who can become an every week starter. I am going to try and keep this list to guys that you can pick up after the first six or seven rounds. By this point, most of your starting roster is filled out and you are now looking to build depth.

All Average Draft Positions are as of 06/01/2021 and pulled from nfc.shgn.com if you would like to tool around with the settings and customize yourself.

These are my personal sleeper ranking, if you would like to see our tiers and ranking list check out our seasonal ranking page where we keep you up to date as injuries, trades, and signings happen here.

Win Daily Sports 2021 NFL Fantasy Sleepers

Quarterbacks:

Looking at the drafting landscape with quarterbacks there seems to be a slight lean towards taking the top QB’s (QB1-10) a bit earlier than we are used to. The top 10 quarterbacks in 2021 to date are all being taken in the first seven rounds (Matthew Stafford at 7.11). In 2020 and 2019 the 10th QB in the draft did not go until pick 8.10 and in 2018 it was not until pick 9.1 when the 10th QB went off the board. The last time we saw a trend like this was six years ago when Sam Bradford was the QB10 with an average draft selection of 7.10. In my opinion, this is great for those of us who tend to wait. While people rush to grab up the top talent we get a slightly deeper pool of RB’s/WR’s/TE’s and we still have plenty of depth to target for the QB position.

Carson Wentz: ADP 134.23

No doubt about it, Carson Wentz has looked awful since his MVP caliber season with the Eagles in 2017. Bad enough to even get himself benched in 2020 for Jalen Hurts. But, what people are not putting enough emphasis on is just how bad the Eagles O-Line was. In part, they went to Hurts because they needed a QB that could run to safety and that just is not Carson. Wentz was 7th in the league with 149 pressures in only 12 games. Give him a full season and that is 199 pressures, worst in the NFL by a wide margin. Now he goes to the Colts where Phillip Rivers had to deal with less than half of that and he arguably has better weapons in TY Hilton, Michael Pittman, Zach Pascal, Mo-Allie Cox, and the ever present Jack Doyle. Will he return to MVP form? Probably not. But can he be a QB1 behind what should be a great line? Absolutely.

Ryan Fitzpatrick: ADP: 158.83

I just wanted to put Fitz in here to put this picture in:

In all seriousness, it has been a long time since Fitzmagic was on a team where he does not have to hand the starting job off to the rookie or had to deal with a coach that just randomly likes to bench his players constantly (looking at you Bruce Arians). There is a ton to be excited about for Fitz this season as he is on arguably his best team since 2015 and possibly his career. Even at 40 he can still push the ball downfield with the best of them so this should be fun. With receivers like Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuels, and Adam Humphries paired with Athletic tight end Logan Thomas he has even better passing weapons than last year’s Miami roster with Devante Parker, Preston Williams, Isaiah Ford, Jakeem Grant, and Mike Gesicki. It is also worth noting that last year, had the Dolphins not forced Tua into the starting lineup Ryan was on his way to his best season ever. He was on pace for almost 4,100 yards, 27 TD’s, and 15 INT’s with a career-high 68.5% completion percentage. He honestly just got a raw deal and we get to take advantage of that with a 14-15th round ADP with an even better offensive personnel group.

Ben Roethlisberger: ADP: 162.23

I am out on a wire at Win Daily on this one. I do not think Big Ben is done just yet. Questions about his arm strength (we will come back to that), age, and injury history are valid points but we are ignoring a couple of things. First, the dearth of pass-catching options that he could trust to not drop passes was silly. The pass catchers for the Steelers dropped 41 passes in 2020. Not only does that damage the stat line on a per attempt basis, but that stalls drives and kills the flow of a team’s entire offense. Even with that Ben completed 65% of his passes and threw 33 touchdowns for just under 4,000 yards in 15 games. We also see all three of his WR targets going in the top six rounds. So we are expecting the drops to get better, all three receivers to do well as a fantasy community, and we are Drafting Ben in the 14-16 round area?!?!? What sense does that make?

Now the arm strength. We seem to do a better job understanding this in baseball. Damage to the ulnar nerve and ulnar collateral ligament takes a full season AND offseason to get back to normal. I know this personally, I had my ulnar nerve surgically rerouted in 2008 and it took me almost two years to get back to 100 percent. This is his “actual” first year back to full health. Trust me, you can afford to take a shot here.

Ryan Tannehill: ADP: 89.07

People can keep disregarding Ryan Tannehill and I will just keep getting a QB who is statistically equivalent to Patrick Mahomes over the last 24 regular-season games (seriously, he has been) 65 picks later. I do not put a ton of weight on Julio over Davis (I see it as a neutral trade-off), but either way he has had almost two full seasons as a top performer in the NFL and he is going as QB12. Players like Jalen Hurts (who only played a handful of games and has questions) and Tom Brady (who played great but still finished with fewer fantasy points). There is simply no reasonable explanation why Tannehill is going in the 8th round with his floor/ceiling combination.

Win Daily Sports 2021 NFL Fantasy Sleepers

Running Backs:

This position is…..well, thin. There is a reason that running backs account for half (18) of draft picks in the first 3 rounds. That’s ok though. While it may not be the prettiest position in the article we do have a handful of targets that we can find to fill out your roster and potentially find a league winner for you.

Trey Sermon: ADP 78.45

The 49’ers under the coaching of Kyle Shanahan have produced the most innovative and effective run game in the NFL over the last several seasons. The zone concepts are very potent, helping to make players who would be largely unknown otherwise into relevant fantasy stars like Raheem Mostert and Jeffrey Wilson. No knock on what either has done but the 49’ers are not going to trade up for a guy and not make him a feature piece of the offense. Now, what is feature? That really is the question. In terms of snap share, the Niners’ Kyle Juszczyk led the team with 472 plays followed by Jerick McKinnon with 372 so we have to go a little further back to see what Kyle would do with a “feature back”. With the Falcons in 2015, he had a backfield with Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman in it. Freeman was the starter for the entire season and saw 227 carries in 16 games compared to Coleman’s 118 carries in 13 games. So, given Trey’s pedigree and ability, if we project a similar workload I think he can see between 50-60% of the teams’ snaps which would be plenty for him to exceed his 7th round ADP.

Chase Edmonds: ADP: 66.82

Kenyan Drake is gone, we saw James Connor fail on the goal line over and over and over again for the Steelers last season, and Chase Edmonds just fits the spread style of offense. In what everyone is expecting to be a high-powered offense I felt like I needed to mention Chase even though he is technically higher in terms of ADP than what I would call a “sleeper” play. Arizona was the 7th highest in the NFL in rush attempts with 470 carries last year. I know 133 of them belonged to Kyler Murray and while he will get plenty of carries that still leaves 337 carries on the table with Kenyan Drake accounting for 239 of them. While I expect Connor to get a decent share of those we know that injuries are a constant concern for him and Edmonds has an explosive element that Conner has not shown since his 2018 season. Given the ADP of both of these guys, you could handcuff this backfield for a great price and have a piece of what should be a top-five offense in the league.

Damien Harris: ADP: 95.52

I am going to keep telling people this and either you listen or not. Cam Newton’s throwing mechanics are getting worse by the year. I have told Panthers fans that even before the injury before I ever started writing. I told Patriots fans and DFS players last year, and I am saying it one last time. I do not care if he got two tight ends. If you throw off your back foot, step to the side instead of through your throws, and drop your elbow, you are going to miss your receivers, badly. The Patriots need to hide him behind the run game and Damien Harris will be the beneficiary of that. Last year Harris came off the IR and just started to demolish opponents, averaging 5.0 yards per carry, and in the four games, he saw at least 15 carries he exceeded 100 yards on the ground in three of them. If you have not gone back to look at his games you should check out week 10 against the Ravens and you will see why I like this guy so much. This season we also get something we normally would not. A semi-clear backfield situation. We still have James White for passing down work, and unless something drastic happens Sony Michel is nothing more than a backup. So this is Harris’ opportunity to be in a feature role in an organization that has not has a feature back since LeGarrette Blount in 2016.

Tevin Coleman: ADP: 178.94

Deep flyer at the running back position. While everyone else is rushing to get Michael Carter I am holding off and taking his counterpart 100 picks later. Tevin Coleman is nothing spectacular but he has a few things going for him over Carter. I expect this first year with rookie QB Zach Wilson to be full of growing pains. The Jets will likely be down a lot and defenses will be teeing off. What can help with that is a veteran running back, that is a capable pass blocker/receiver, and it’s a huge bonus if said running back is familiar with the offense. Who was it that Tevin Coleman worked with in San Francisco? Oh yeah, that would be the Jets now offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur. Wilson needs that presence on the field for a whole litany of reasons. Best case scenario, Coleman wins the job outright this season and you look like a genius. Worst case scenario, he gets most of the work in passing down, hurry up, and scenarios where they abandon the run and he still exceeds his 16th-17th round value.

Win Daily Sports 2021 NFL Fantasy Sleepers

Wide Receivers:

This is the deepest group of wide receivers that I have seen in a long time. I think that may be part of the reason that we have seen the decision by some to draft QB’s a bit earlier than we usually would. No matter, there are still a few areas where I think we have players in good spots who are going unnoticed.

Mecole Hardman: ADP: 130.50

I am not sure how many of you guys/gals know this. The Chiefs have a pretty good quarterback. We know without hesitation that Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill are going to be at the top of the season leaders for their respective positions but with an offense that is going to score 40 points a game nearly every week the second receiver has an enormous ceiling as well. Enter Mecole Hardman. We have been waiting for him to finally break out and I think we are getting a little lucky with his ADP. It looks like people are still taking a wait-and-see approach even though he now appears to be the number two with Watkins in Baltimore. We are talking about a player who has the same insane top-end speed that Tyreek Hill has, in the exact same offense, with the same QB. It is difficult to find someone in a better situation with this kind of value.

Michael Pittman: ADP: 102.78

Pittman was severely hampered by who was throwing him the ball. I guess you can say that about all of the Colts if I were to be honest with myself. Even so, he showed some real flashes of what could be in his rookie season. He was incredibly effective catching and running in the middle of the field, taking slants and short crossing routes, and turning them into big gains. Now that he has a full offseason and a new quarterback who should be able to push the ball downfield the Colts will be able to expand his route tree and take advantage of his big frame with some deep 50/50 balls.

Antonio Brown: ADP: 103.33

I can not believe AB is in a sleeper article. It is crazy what a couple of years can change. If it was not for all of the offseason stuff we would still be drafting Brown as our WR2 at worst and not thinking twice about it. Brady loves this guy, he has never had a hint of an injury concern, and now he gets a full offseason going into year two with the Bucs. Brady is the King of petty. If you do not think he will go out of his way to pepper Brown with targets this season just to prove a point than you must have never watched him play. I did not see anything to indicate that Brown has lost a step at any point last year and I can see him coming into this year with a level of focus and motivation that I doubt we have seen from him before. For a 10th round pick it is well worth the shot.

Jarvis Landry: ADP: 104.48

Do people still think Jarvis Landry is a possession receiver or something? This is silly. I know he did not reach 1,000 yards last year and at the surface surface the number are meh. But he is still the top receiving option going into year three with his starting QB. I can already hear it now. Odell Beckham is their number one. Stop it, no he is not. Landry has led the team in targets, catches, yards per game, and touchdowns between the two. Yeah Beckham was hurt last year, But in 2019 he was not and Landry was a better player from a raw points and value standpoint. Cleveland also played in two games last year with wind speeds in excess of 50 MPH which did not do anybody any favors. If I were to ask you if you wanted a play who would give you 1,000 yards, 80 catches, and 5 TD’s in the 10th round and you had to take it without knowing the name 10 times out of 10 you would say yes.

Hope you enjoyed Win Daily Sports 2021 NFL Fantasy Sleepers. Hopefully, you have learned something that you can make use of in your Dynasty, Best Ball, and Seasonal Drafts, and got the juices flowing a bit to help you take down a big one in week one when the time comes. I look forward to creating more content for you all leading up to the 2021 NFL Season. Any questions about the article, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

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Stoweby’s 2021 NFL Fantasy Preview: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Uriah Wesson
written by Uriah Wesson

Are you ready? We told you that we had some great things in the works at Win Daily Sports and now that the dust has settled on the NFL draft, we can take a long hard look at all 32 NFL teams so that we can go into the fantasy draft season and week one DFS and destroy the competition right out of the gate. We are going to cover every possible angle so that nothing surprises you. So, without further ado here is the 4th of 32. Stoweby’s 2021 NFL Fantasy Preview: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2020 Record: 11-5

Head Coach: Bruce Arians

Offensive Coordinator: Byron Leftwich

Defensive Coordinator: Todd Bowles

Stoweby’s 2021 NFL Fantasy Preview: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Overview:

I am going to be honest, I do not enjoy having to parse through the Bucs offense in any way shape or form. The 2020 Super Bowl Champions just have a wealth of talent to choose from and Tom Brady is the single best QB of all time when it comes to finding the open target wherever it may be. Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown, Scotty Miller, Cameron Brate, Rob Gronkowski, Ronald Jones, Leonard Fournette, Giovani Bernard. Do you see why this is a nightmare from a fantasy perspective?

Defensively the Buccaneers have been a consistent top three against the run and pass for several years now with Todd Bowles at the helm and there is nothing to indicate that is going to change. Up front they have, Ndamukong Suh, Vea Vita, an Will Gholston, Jason Pierre Paul, Shaq Barrett, and Devin White at linebacker, and Jamel Dean, Antione Winfield, and Jordan Whitehead in the secondary. If you guys spot a gap in their defense please tell me, I could use the help.

Scheme

Offense: Tom Brady and 80 other guys

Defense: 3-4 Base, Multiple Fronts, Multiple Cover Zero and Cover One Blitz Packages

Stoweby’s 2021 NFL Fantasy Preview: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Fantasy Targets:

Mike Evans: ADP 41.25

In order to be better at drafting your fantasy teams it is key to recognize your biases and I have a clear bias against Evans. Every year I target him he has underperformed against his ADP and every year I stay clear he does not. This may be the first year that bias will not play a roll for me. I just happen to be telling folks to let the Bucs be someone elses headache. In 2020 he had 70 catches for 1,006 yards and 13 touchdowns, but over half of those yards (517 of them) and 31 of those 70 grabs came in only four games. That inconsistency will only be worse with Antonio Brown fully involved in the offense and Chris Godwin not dealing with a finger injury.

Chris Godwin: ADP 45.91

Godwin is one of the top two or three slot receivers in the game right now and even hampered with injuries through most of the year he finished 2020 with 840 yards and seven touchdowns. If he played for anyone else he would be a top 25 overall selection but he suffers the same issues as the rest of the Bucs offense. There is too much depth. He only exceeded 100 yards once through the entire season and that was week 16 against the Falcons secondary that was largely practice squad players and some guys who were signed from the local flag football team in Atlanta.

Tom Brady: ADP 73.84

Tom Brady is likely going to be my only target on this entire team unless we have some ADP changes. Figuring out out which guy will have a big year of the 8 options is nearly impossible so just do yourself a favor and pick the guy who is throwing the ball. You know who Tom Brady is and you either think he can still play and you draft him. Or, you think father time will catch up and you do not. It is really that simple.

Ronald Jones: ADP 84.44

If you were to force me to pick a running back for the Bucs RoJo would be my choice. You are not going to get any kind of tangible ADP discount, I just think he is a better back. His yards per carry was over a full yard better than Fournette (5.1 compared to 3.8) and both Fournette and Jones are decent receivers out of the backfield. The downside (apart from depth) is that Bruce Arians will bench Jones for entire games out of nowhere because he missed a block or was late to a practice. It is so bad and so random it feels personal. In 2019 during one of Winston’s multiple five turnover games, he missed a read. Winston got a pass while Jones was almost completely removed from the offense and chastised publicly. I am just going to pass unless it is best ball.

Stoweby’s 2021 NFL Fantasy Preview: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Leonard Fournette: ADP 87.57

The one thing that we kind of had some consistency on with the Bucs backfield in 2020 was that Fournette was going to get more work than Jones in passing down situations. That is no longer a given. Brady went out and personally recruited Giovanni Bernard in the offseason to presumably fill the “James White” role. If you did not know any better you would assume that it was Bill Belichick who was the main driver of the maddening three and four running back by committee backfields. This is actually a preference that Brady shares wholeheartedly and he has gone out of his way to recreate this in Tampa. This is a nightmare of a backfield now so have fun pulling out your hair if you get in on it.

Antonio Brown: ADP 113.27

If you were to tell me that I HAD to draft a receiver from this Bucs squad this season the only one I would feel remotely comfortable with at their current ADP is AB. With a full offseason under his belt with Tampa and a quiet-ish offseason in what feels like an eternity for him, he is the only Buc who I think has a chance to exceed their value. in only four starts last year the seven-time pro bowl receiver caught 45 of his 62 targets for 483 yards and four touchdowns. His yards per reception were about two yards less than his career average (10.7 in 2020 compared to 13.3 over his career) but I think that has more to do with him getting familiar with the offense and getting himself into game shape. Year two with the Bucs should have a full playbook available to him and plenty of opportunities to exceed 1,000 yards and catch anywhere between 6-8 touchdowns. For a player that you can get as your fourth wide receiver in the 10th round he is the one receiver on the Bucs roster you can afford to take a shot on.

Rob Gronkowski: ADP 149.50

I do not want this to be misinterpreted so let me be clear, I am not saying they are in the same league right now but how many people are aware that Gronk and Kelce are only six months apart in terms of age? How about how he only has one more season under his belt? Sure, injuries have slowed him down but these two guys were neck and neck for years in terms of fantasy stat lines. He played a full 16 games last year and caught 45 balls for 623 yards and seven touchdowns (that’s TE 8 in PPR) and you can get him 13-14 rounds later. If you want to completely punt the position and load up on running backs and receivers or you are in a Tight End premium league there are plenty of worse options to go with.

Giovanni Bernard: ADP 182.50

I am not going any further and I am going to be brief. Bernard should only be drafted in the absolute deepest of PPR leagues as a final depth piece and even then I think I could find better options. Brady specifically wanted him to be on the team, he is sure-handed as his history in Cincy would suggest, and Brady needs a competent blocker in the backfield during passing down situations going into his age 44 season. ADP seems steep but I have drafted in a ton of best ball drafts and I personally have not seen in drafted in any of them so I am thinking the 182 climbs closer to 190-200 as we get closer to week one.

Stoweby’s 2021 NFL Fantasy Preview: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Final Thoughts:

This preview is probably the single most challenging one that I will have through all 32 teams. The Bucs are extremely deep to the point of absurdity, they have a quarterback who may be the best ever at spreading the ball around, and to top it all off they have a defense that can shut opposing teams down making the need to even score points an unnecessary luxury some weeks. When it comes to drafting your fantasy teams you want to aim for clear situations with narrow player pools and while the depth chart is “clear”, there is no wider player pool in the NFL. If you are drafting these guys I wish you the best of luck, because it is going to be a crapshoot.

Hope you enjoyed Stoweby’s 2021 NFL Fantasy Preview: Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Hopefully, you have learned something that you can make use of in your Dynasty, Best Ball, and Seasonal Drafts, and got the juices flowing a bit to help you take down a big one in week one when the time comes. I look forward to creating more content covering all 32 NFL teams. Any questions about the article, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

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Stoweby’s 2021 NFL Fantasy Preview: New Orleans Saints

Uriah Wesson
written by Uriah Wesson

Are you ready? We told you that we had some great things in the works at Win Daily Sports and now that the dust has settled on the NFL draft, we can take a long hard look at all 32 NFL teams so that we can go into the fantasy draft season and week one DFS and destroy the competition right out of the gate. We are going to cover every possible angle so that nothing surprises you. So, without further ado here is the 3rd of 32. Stoweby’s 2021 NFL Fantasy Preview: New Orleans Saints

New Orleans Saints:

2020 Record: 12-4

Head Coach: Sean Payton

Offensive Coordinator: Pete Carmichael

Defensive Coordinator: Dennis Allen

Stoweby’s 2021 NFL Fantasy Preview: New Orleans Saints

Overview:

When it comes to the Saints for the 2021 season we all have the same question: Will it be Jameis Winston or Taysom Hill behind center as the replacement for future Hall of Famer Drew Brees? I am going to try my best to parse through this very difficult scenario, but when drafting any of the offensive players this needs to be at the forefront of your mind. I love the visual representation that this heat map provides.

We all know by now that Sean Payton and Pete Carmichael are among the most creative coaches when it comes to their play calling and in some cases too creative. The offensive line will be once again a top-eight unit led by tackles Terron Armstead and Ryan Ramczyk and the same offensive weapons Alvin Kamara, Latavius Murray, TreQuan Smith, and a healthy Michael Thomas. The only “key” offensive talent gone from last season is Jared Cook who managed 504 yards and seven touchdowns on only 37 receptions.

The defensive unit was top three in both offense and defense in terms of DVOA in 2020 but they lost Janoris Jenkins, Kwon Alexander, Sheldon Rankins, and Trey Hendrickson. They did what they could to address these losses by drafting defensive end Payton Turner, linebacker Pete Werner, and cornerback Paulson Adebo in the first three rounds. They should still be a very solid defensive unit overall but I am expecting at least a little regression in the early part of the season while the rookies get up to speed so that is something to keep an eye on if you are still playing seasonal leagues with team defenses.

Scheme

Offense: Run heavy with short passing routes (slants, outs, screens), read option with Hill. Traditional 12 and 21 personnel with more downfield routes (post, flys, deep crosses) with Winston.

Defense: 4-3 Base, 2 High Safeties, Heavy Blitz on 3rd Down with Cover 1

Stoweby’s 2021 NFL Fantasy Preview: Carolina Panthers

Fantasy Targets:

***IMPORTANT UPDATE***

The Thomas injury changes the landscape

Alvin Kamara: ADP 3.6

If Taysom Hill ends up being the starting QB or if it even looks like it is leaning that way there is no way that I am taking Kamara at 3-4 overall. I honestly don’t even know if I would take him in the first round. Before you grab your pitchforks hear me out. In the 11 games where Brees was at QB Kamara averaged 12.45 carries for 63.18 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns which is not far off from the 15.5 attempts, 59.25 yards, and 3 touchdowns. The problem is Kamara’s receiving upside or lack thereof. With Hill, he caught 10 passes for 12.75 yards per game and no touchdowns while with Brees running things he averaged 6.63 catches, 64.1 yards per game, and five touchdowns. Basically, the short passing game that a traditional QB will use (like Winston) is replaced with the read option in Sean Payton’s play calling and that the single most important part of Alvin’s game from a fantasy viewpoint.

Much Shorter with Famous Jameis. He will push the ball downfield more than any of us have seen from the Saints in ages but Winston does not run much. If he wants the starting job he will have to be smarter with the ball and utilize the check-downs as so many of his turnovers came from the choice to extend plays beyond where he should have resulted in interceptions or fumbles. Kamara in this instance is appropriately priced around the third or fourth overall selection.

Michael Thomas: ADP 30.6 NEW ADP (Post Injury): 68.00 (97.00 Max)

We have a very small sample with the new ADP for Michael Thomas post ankle surgery news. I wish we would have known about this surgery happening so late but we work with what we’ve got. The best thing that I can do is read the tea leaves and tell you where I stand. Hint, not optimistic.

First, the surgery. We all know he had a high ankle sprain in week one of 2020. The thing that we didn’t necessarily know was that in addition to that he had a tear of the ankle deltoid ligament. What is baffling is that the only option for that tear is surgery. Rest does not help. He knew this through the entire 2020 season and offseason and chose to try rehab only and now here we are. He spent almost a full year with scarring in that ankle to go along with a potential lack of blood flow to the surrounding tissue possibly creating other problems that have not yet surfaced.

I said all of that to say all of this. I can not recommend Thomas anywhere on my board. We know the injury but we have no clue what further damage has taken place outside of this tear. There is no promise he will even see the field. The ankle is complicated medically and for the long-term health of Thomas, the Saints may choose to shut him down. I would rather take a chance on a WR2/WR3 that I know will see the field at the 80-90 ADP I see him settling at.

I love Thomas regardless of who is at quarterback and I am getting him anywhere I can. He is the only real passing option on that team and even injured he played incredibly well while Taysom was on the field. The one thing Brees and Hill have in common is they know to target Thomas early and often. In four starts Thomas was targeted 37 times, catching 30 of them for 343 yards. he gets a slight hit in touchdown equity due to the run heavy approach with Taysom but the zero TD’s was in part a fluke. If you extrapolate out to a full season I would expect to see between 1400-1500 yards and anywhere between 5-7 touchdowns for a back half of the third round pick.

If Jameis wins the job I would not be at all surprised if Thomas finished the season as the overall WR1. It is easy to forget but once upon a time Brees threw the ball downfield. In 2018 Drew Brees was 6th in the NFL in yards per attempt and in that season Michael Thomas caught 125 passes for 1405 yards and nine touchdowns. He had one injury-riddled season with what was essentially running back at QB and people are ready to write him off. I do not get this.

Stoweby’s 2021 NFL Fantasy Preview: New Orleans Saints

Latavius Murray: ADP 140.43

Murray is a guy that I would love to have on my roster as a standalone player if we get any kind of confirmation of Hill winning the job. Murray is the more traditional back and they used him much more effectively during the stretch when Hill was starting. in weeks 10 and 11 he carried the ball 31 times for 5.58 YPA, 173 yards, and two touchdowns. If the Saints choose to go with the run first option I can see Murray getting 12 or so touches per game to ensure they do not get Kamara hurt playing an inside run game that he really isn’t known for.

Adam Trautman: 166.3

I know I am sounding like a broken record but full fade with Hill at QB. If we get Winston Trautman is an interesting 15th round target for a tight end. I am probably not going to get much of him on the roster just due to the unsure nature of what is going on but Winston threw to his tight-ends a lot in Tampa, especially in the RedZone. For example, in 2018 between OJ Howard and Cameron Brate they accounted for 854 yards and 7 TD’s, 770 yards and 5 TD’s in 2019, and 1,023 yards and 12 TD’s in 2017. As I said, I am probably not going here but the case can certainly be made to take a share or two when it makes sense.

Jameis Winston: ADP 169.4

I’m going to keep both Hill and Winston quick. Both of their ADPs are great and the upside that they both provide in their way is well beyond how they are being drafted. If you want to draft both and stash one until we get some clarity on the situation that would be a solid late-round approach. For those of you with a short memory, Winston was a high-end QB1 before coming to New Orleans. Looking at the two Jameis has a much higher ceiling in my opinion. Just be prepared to see a ton of turnovers.

Taysom Hill: ADP 207

See above, slightly less upside.

Tre’Quan Smith: ADP 213.3 (New ADP after Thomas Injury): 149.00

Smith lands as the de-facto WR1 unless we hear otherwise or there is an acquisition. Even with the five round bump in ADP so long as we have Winston throwing the ball I am comfortable with the new average draft position. The reasons I liked him have not changed. Winston can make use of his speed in a way that Brees never could and he could be on his way to a breakout in 2021.

Only recommended as a late-round flier if Winston is throwing the ball. You can get him in the last round and they will need a number two receiver. Smith can get down the field in a hurry and has shown flashes of what could be but Brees just did not have the arm strength to utilize him. Winston will not have that problem. Smith had an 85.6% route participation percentage and typically saw an 80+percent snap share on a team that almost exclusively ran two and three-wide sets. you can get him in round 20 all day right now.

Stoweby’s 2021 NFL Fantasy Preview: New Orleans Saints

Final Thoughts:

The only thing that I am fairly certain of is that they will be a good team this year. How good? I have no clue. They will have a solid defense but I have no clear read on this team without knowing who will be under center. I like the defense a little more with Hill under center from a defensive perspective but the upside is so much higher offensively with Jameis throwing it. Hopefully, we will get clarity early in training camp in which case I will adjust my projection appropriately.

Hope you enjoyed my first of many Stoweby’s 2021 NFL Fantasy Preview: New Orleans Saints. Hopefully, you have learned something that you can make use of in your Dynasty, Best Ball, and Seasonal Drafts, and got the juices flowing a bit to help you take down a big one in week one when the time comes. I look forward to creating more content covering all 32 NFL teams. Any questions about the article, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

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Stoweby’s 2021 NFL Fantasy Preview: Carolina Panthers

Uriah Wesson
written by Uriah Wesson

Are you ready? We told you that we had some great things in the works at Win Daily Sports and now that the dust has settled on the NFL draft, we can take a long hard look at all 32 NFL teams so that we can go into the fantasy draft season and week one DFS and destroy the competition right out of the gate. We are going to cover every possible angle so that nothing surprises you. So, without further ado here is the 2nd of 32. Stoweby’s 2021 NFL Fantasy Preview: Carolina Panthers

Carolina Panthers:

2020 Record: 5-11

Head Coach: Matt Rhule

Offensive Coordinator: Joe Brady

Defensive Coordinator: Phil Snow

Stoweby’s 2021 NFL Fantasy Preview: Carolina Panthers

Overview:

The NFC South is shaping up to be a really interesting start to the post draft fantasy breakdowns just due to the combination of coaching changes, signings, drafts, and comeback scenarios. The Carolina Panthers are staying put from the coaching side but they rescued brought in Sam Darnold from the Jets this season and one thing that we have seen consistently is that players tend to do better when they get away from Adam Gase.

Knowing how Joe Brady ran his offenses in previous seasons one thing is clear. Teddy Bridgewater severely handcuffed him in terms of how deep he could go into the playbook. If you are unaware he was the offensive mastermind for LSU in the late 2010s. He wants to air it out and if you look at this heat map image you can see how even Drew Brees targeted receivers further downfield than Bridgewater. Now look at how Sam Darnold brings the ability to push the ball downfield compared to both and you know what Brady aiming for.

Heat map courtesy of programming by https://rbsdm.com/stats/heat_maps/

The question is: Will the offensive line be able to protect better this year? The Panthers ended the season as the 31st ranked offensive line. With players like Cam Irving, and Pat Efflein joining the team from the Cowboys and Jets, and the return of John Miller, Matt Paradis, and Taylor Morton I expect the line will be much improved. This will allow Robby Anderson and DJ Moore much more time to get down the field. It also helps that Run CMC is back on the field giving defensive coordinators much more to think about.

Scheme

Offense: Spread Concept, Deep Passing, Hi-Low Concepts with crossing routes

Defense: 4-3 Base, Conservative, Low Blitz Rate

Stoweby’s 2021 NFL Fantasy Preview: Carolina Panthers

Fantasy Targets:

Sam Darnold: ADP 180.1

This is the biggest question mark on the Panthers team this season. How much of Sam Darnold’s issues were on him and how much of it was caused by Adam Gase’s ineptitude? I am leaning towards Gase after seeing how players like Ryan Fitzpatrick, Ryan Tannehill, and Kenyan Drake performed after leaving. If CMC stays healthy and the line improves even to mediocrity at a 17th round ADP Darnold is a near end of draft QB that I could see finishing as high as QB 14-15 with burners like Robby Anderson an DJ Moore on the outside.

Christian McCaffrey: ADP: 1.3

If he is available you take him. Simple as that. He is my 1-1.

DJ Moore: ADP 50.9

Moore is the first of the pair of wide receivers left to target for the Panthers and you can pretty much copy and paste my thoughts with him and Robby Anderson below. Moore had almost 1,200 yard on 66 grabs with a quarterback who was 28th in the NFL with 7.1 air yards per attempt, the 31st ranked O-Line in the league, no McCaffrey to make the opposing defense think, and Curtis Samuel taking away targets. I would prefer his ADP to be a touch lower but if you are sitting at the turn in the 5th round and he is still available I can not imagine what his upside could be with someone who can throw it deep.

Robby Anderson: 80.4

Robby caught 95 passes for almost 1,100 yards with a QB who threw almost all of his passes at the line of scrimmage as the teams number two receiver. I already mentioned above the litany of issues on the offensive side of the ball that dampened the production for both him and Moore. I personally like Anderson’s ADP much better. I think his upside is just a touch lower than Moore, but I am splitting hairs in that regard (maybe 100 yards and a td or two) and you can get him as your wide receiver three or four depending on how early you have a tendency to draft tight-end. In a 17 game season in a competent offense I wouldn’t be shocked if Anderson ended a healthy 2021 campaign with 1300-1400 yards and well over 100 grabs.

Stoweby’s 2021 NFL Post Draft Fantasy Breakdown: Carolina Panthers

Final Thoughts:

I truly think Carolina will be a much better football team this year even if the win-loss record doesn’t show it. The Saints are still a really strong team without Brees and they have to plays the Bucs and their top defensive unit twice and having the Patriots, Washington, and Dolphins on the schedule is not doing them any favors. Joe Brady is a very innovative offensive coordinator and the tendency that players have to excel away from Adam Gase is pushing me towards a sense of optimism for Sam Darnold and the Carolina panthers as a whole.

Hope you enjoyed my first of many Stoweby’s 2021 NFL Fantasy Preview: Carolina Panthers. Hopefully, you have learned something that you can make use of in your Dynasty, Best Ball, and Seasonal Drafts, and got the juices flowing a bit to help you take down a big one in week one when the time comes. I look forward to creating more content covering all 32 NFL teams. Any questions about the article, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

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Stoweby’s 2021 NFL Post Draft Fantasy Breakdown: Atlanta Falcons

Uriah Wesson
written by Uriah Wesson

Are you ready? We told you that we had some great things in the works at Win Daily Sports and now that the dust has settled on the NFL draft, we can take a long hard look at all 32 NFL teams so that we can go into the fantasy draft season and week one DFS and destroy the competition right out of the gate. We are going to cover every possible angle so that nothing surprises you. So, without further ado here is the 1st of 32. Stoweby’s 2021 NFL Post Draft Fantasy Breakdown: Atlanta Falcons.

Atlanta Falcons:

2020 Record: 4-12

Coaching Changes

Arthur Smith: New Head Coach/Offensive Coordinator/Play Caller (Titans)

Dean Pees: Defensive Coordinator (Titans)

Offense: West Coast, Zone Run, Play-Action, 2 Tight-Ends

Defense: Multiple Base Packages, Heavy Blitz. Aggressive

Fantasy Targets (By National Fantasy Championship ADP): Calvin Ridley (22.15), *Julio Jones (46.99), Kyle Pitts (86.53), Matt Ryan (88.23), Mike Davis (104.67), Hayden Hurst (167.81), Russel Gage (177.70)

*Denotes Potential Trade

Stoweby’s 2021 NFL Post Draft Fantasy Breakdown: Atlanta Falcons

Overview:

The first NFL team that we will be covering is the Altana Falcons and they are an interesting team from a real-world and fantasy perspective, so I am excited to lead off with these guys. Not only did they poach the Titans offensive and defensive coordinators in Arthur Smith and Den Pees, but it looks like a guarantee that Julio Jones will be going elsewhere so we have a lot to talk about. My very broad overview is that we will see a much more balanced offensive game plan with a ton of two tight-end sets, play action, and zone run concepts and while I do expect an improvement defensively, I still don’t know to what extent. I do know that Pees came out of retirement just to coach these guys up and he was the man behind the 2007 Patriots Defense and the 2012 Ravens Defense (Both Super Bowl Champions) and loves pressure which is something that the Falcons have been terrible at over the last several seasons. Let us take a deeper look below in Stoweby’s 2021 NFL Post Draft Fantasy Breakdown: Atlanta Falcons.

When it comes to coaching changes it can sometimes be a little tricky figuring out how they will translate to new organizations. I do not think that is going to be an issue for me here. By a wide margin I watched more coach’s films on the Titans than any other team in 2020 so I feel confident in my early assessment here.

Scheme

Offense:

If you go back to the film, you will see a few things that are prevalent in Arthur Smith’s offense in 2020. They rely heavily on the zone run, play-action, bootlegs, and 2 tight end sets or “12” personnel group. Not only did they lead the league in multiple tight end sets (35% 1 RB 2 TE “12”, 4% 2 RB 2 TE, 9% 1 RB 3 TE) with 48% of their offensive plays having at least two tight-ends but they ran the fewest plays BY FAR involving packages with at least 3 wide receivers (38% 1 TE 3 WR, 2% 0 TE 3 WR) totaling 40% of their snaps. There were a few packages combined with 3 or more WR but they did not even reach a percent, so I am leaving them out.

The Titans were also a very deliberate team averaging only 63.5 offensive plays per game which put them at 22nd slowest although, in situations where they needed to pick up the pace, they were able to do so finishing 3rd in pace at 25 seconds per play in situations where they were tied or losing and Matt Ryan has played almost his entire career in fast paced situations so while I think he wants to Davis wants to slow things down a bit I know that Falcons roster is well adjusted to playing at that faster pace.

Defense:

Dean Pees has chosen to come out of retirement to coach this Falcons defense and while they have not been good and I am being very generous, they are very young and they were the most injured defense in the NFL. So much so that they had several weeks where the entire secondary and I mean all safeties and cornerbacks both starter and backup came from practice squads or the house. He has no specific base package. He runs 3-4 and 4-3 depending on the situation. The one thing that is constant with Pees is pressure. It doesn’t always show in the numbers as with the Titans over the last several years, the Ravens in the mid-2010s, and the Patriots in the mid-late 2000s his defense has finished middle of the road but he runs a very opportunistic style that comes up big in big moments. And he has been called a Super Bowl champion, twice because of it.

So, what does this mean? Let us answer the easier question first. Do we expect a ton of scenarios where the Falcons will be ahead and therefore be able to slow down the pace? No? Good. Glad to see we are on the same page there. So since we can expect plenty of offensive opportunities it is time for the tougher question. Who will be the main beneficiaries of the new offensive scheme? We will be having this conversation assuming there is no Julio. If he stays and says he will play, adjust Gage accordingly although I do not think you really should as you will see below.

Stoweby’s 2021 NFL Post Draft Fantasy Breakdown: Atlanta Falcons

Fantasy Targets:

Matt Ryan:

Matty Ice has been a guy that you can consistently count on year in and year out to give you a good floor/ceiling combination for a great value. Last year, which many consider his worst showing since his rookie year Ryan still delivered 4,581 yards passing, led the league in completions with 407, threw 26 TDs and 11 picks. He did that while being sacked 41 times (4th worst), and only having 2.87 seconds to throw, which was less time than Patrick Mahomes (2.89) got when we were giving him a pass last season. While they will not get nearly as many plays off this season with Smith likely slowing down the tempo, they will be running a lot of two and three tight end sets, bootlegging to get him away from pressure and using a lot of play-action to give him just a bit more time to throw. Expect his air yards to go down as he dumps off to Mike Davis, Hayden Hurst, and Kyle Pitts a ton but the YAC will undoubtedly go up with the scheming that HC/OC Arthur Davis will put in place, at least if the Titans results are any indication. I still think he is a fantastic value as the 14th QB off the board.

Calvin Ridley:

Beast. Moving on. OK fine, I will say something. I pretty much expected Ridley to supplant Julio last year and drafted as such. Calvin was on pretty much every fantasy team I drafted last year and the 1374 yards and 9 TDs in 15 games including a couple of games where he was injured and limited proved me right. Now we get him without Julio in an offense that will still be using play-action but in a way, I feel will be much more effective and his late second/early third ADP is honestly a bit low. I get it though, I have been in several mock drafts, and on numerous occasions, I have seen no receivers go in the first round. With a 17-game season, I would not be at all shocked to see this guy easily eclipse 1500 yards and double-digit TDs.

Mike Davis:

Mike Davis took full advantage of his opportunity when CMC went down and had he started all 16 games he would have finished with around 900 yards rushing, 550 yards receiving with around 70 receptions, and 10 TDs. At 5’9” 220-230 pounds he did extremely well in the spread-style offense that lends itself to smaller, quicker backs like McCaffrey. The zone run concepts that I am expecting Atlanta to implement fit him much, much better. He’s not the fastest guy in the world (4.61 40 yard) so a single cut, get downhill, inside zone will lead to improved run stats and we all saw how great his hands are. A little something else to consider is that everyone knew that the Panthers were not going to push more than they needed to downfield leading to 32.73% of his snaps seeing 8 or more in the box (7th most among ALL running backs). In contrast, Todd Gurley saw only 21.54% 8+ man boxes. If we split the difference and he sees a drop down to 26% with zone concepts he should have plenty more room to run.

Kyle Pitts:

Beast #2??? Whatever, you drive a hard bargain I guess. Kyle Pitts might break every single rookie tight end record in the NFL. The talking heads all told you how good he is and considering the Falcons took him fourth overall they feel that way too. He is fast, sure-handed, and is just as capable as a receiver as he is a tight end. I kind of hinted at it at the top when talking about the scheme but Davis loves leaning on his tight ends. We know Jonnu Smith had a big year with 40 catches for 448 yards and eight touchdowns but did you know that even Anthony Firkser was able to have a few good games including an 8 catch 113 yards 1 TD game. Not nearly as huge but a backup tight end with 39 grabs, 387 yards, and a TD is more than you would expect in this day and age of a thin tight end pool. I’m saying all of that to say this. If Jonnu Smith and Anthony Firkser can do that on a team with a 2,000-yard rusher in Derrick Henry and two 1000 yard receivers in AJ Brown and Corey Davis what do you think the ceiling is for a man with his physical gifts with no Julio Jones and Mike Davis as the primary ball carrier?

Hayden Hurst:

Love him as a late-round flier. Everyone has written Hurst off because the Falcons didn’t pick up his 5th-year option but he had a career year with 56 grabs for 571 yards and six TDs. How is Jonnu getting praise heaped on him with similar numbers and Hunter Henry to compete with targets with from a far less accurate QB and an offense that was hot garbage? I mean Jonnu’s ADP is 33 (134) spots higher and Hunter Henry (117) is 60 spots higher??? Do people think Cam Newton or a rookie QB Mac Jones is going to do better than a QB who averages a 65% completion percentage over his career? The Falcons will likely run almost exclusively two tight end sets and he is an afterthought. Do yourself a favor, If you are nervous about Pitts as a rookie you can get Hurst at next to nothing and benefit from people not realizing what the Falcons will do this year.

Russel Gage:

You better take him NOW before Julio moves. As the de-facto number two wide receiver for the Falcons, Russel Gage will be closer to 100 ADP than 180 once Jones’s move is official. And by the way, last season Gage had 41 more targets than Julio last year. Look it up. 68 to 109 targets in 2020. What do you think he will have without Jones in the mix drawing away targets in key situations?

Stoweby’s 2021 NFL Post Draft Fantasy Breakdown: Atlanta Falcons

Final Thoughts:

This is shaping up to be one of the more interesting teams in the early going of this NFL offseason. Between the coaching changes, style changes, big names potentially out, and future superstars potentially coming in they are shaping up to be a pretty competitive team in a division where Tom Brady is a year older, where Drew Brees will either be replaced by a 30-year-old hybrid player in Taysom Hill or the most turnover-prone quarterback in NFL history in Jameis Winston, and a Panthers franchise who just rescued Sam Darnold from Adam Gase. I’m not saying they turn the whole thing around in a single season but the NFC South is notoriously fickle so who knows what kind of craziness we will run into this year.

Hope you enjoyed my first of many Stoweby’s 2021 NFL Post Draft Fantasy Breakdown: Atlanta Falcons. Hopefully, you have learned something that you can make use of in your Dynasty, Best Ball, and Seasonal Drafts, and got the juices flowing a bit to help you take down a big one in week one when the time comes. I look forward to creating more content covering all 32 NFL teams. Any questions about the article, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

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NFL

NFL DFS GPP: Stix Picks for Week 7

StixPicks
written by StixPicks

To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive.” NFL DFS GPP season is here and it’s time for us to stay hot. We absolutely smashed NFL DFS GPP lineups last week and should do so again in Week 7. Thank you all again for the kind words on the huge week last week! For those who haven’t read it yet, please check out the Week 7 Cash Game Checkdown for your bankroll sustaining, cash game build advice.

In addition, I would strongly advise reading my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason, before diving into the 2020 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter.

For those looking to get different and make a splash in some GPPs, the time is now. We’ll usually be taking some heavy stances on lower-ownership players, but at times, there is certainly good “chalk” to eat. Let’s get into it.

Please note, everyone on our cheatsheet and the Cash Game Checkdown are also in play for GPPs. This is more to uncover some players people are not talking about… and they should be.

*Keep in mind, for the stack options, you obviously do not need to use everyone listed. You can always just use one or two of those players if that fits your build more appropriately*

NFL DFS GPP Quarterbacks

*Obviously, Russell Wilson and Kyler Murray are the popular QBs on this slate. Get exposure to them and feel free to use them in your main NFL DFS GPP lineups if that’s what you prefer. Here are some other QBs that I have a lot of interest in…

  1. Josh Allen – Usually, I would be heavily against using a quarterback as double-digit favorite, but the Bills are going to come out playing fast and step on the throat early in this game. I’m always interested in a ~5% owned Josh Allen.

    John Brown is out, so simply stack him with Stefon Diggs.
  2. Matt Stafford – I simply have no idea how Stafford’s ownership projections are so low (less than 5%). This is the absolute nuts matchup for opposing quarterbacks and this game offers no defense whatsoever. Whatever defense their is in Atlanta is geared towards stopping the run. It’s going to shoot out and you’ll want a piece of it.

    Potential Stack(s):
    Golladay/Jones
    Golladay/Hockenson
    Golladay/Swift

    Potential Game Stack(s):
    Golladay/M. Jones /Julio/Ridley
    Golladay/M. Jones /Julio/Gurley
    Golladay/Hockenson/Julio/Ridley
    ETC… (so many combinations you can play around with)
  3. Patrick Mahomes – Mahomes grades out as the third best QB in the AETY Model this week and no one is going to play him. Keep an eye on the weather in Denver as it currently looks gross. If it clears up a bit, I’ll have Mahomes simply because he will be un-owned.

    Weather is absolutely brutal. Fading.

    Honorable Mention: Joe Burrow, Matt Ryan, Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady

Running Backs

  1. Kareem Hunt – All in on Kareem Hunt this week. I love Kamara a ton as well (as everyone does), so I’m trying to pair these two together as much as possible WITHOUT using Gio Bernard as the third RB. Everyone and their mother will be using that trio together.
  2. Ezekiel Elliott – Zeke around 5% ownership? I don’t love him this week, but the model still thinks there’s a lot of upside with Elliott this week in what should be a surprisingly up-paced game.
  3. Ronald Jones – I don’t know why people aren’t rostering RoJo AGAIN this week. He was my second highest-owned running back last week and is likely to be in the top-three again this week. Tampa runs the ball so well and the Raiders rank 31st in run defense DVOA. RoJo is going for 20+ yet again in Week 7.
  4. Jerick McKinnon – Another team that is extremely efficient running the football is Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers. The Patriots have been rather suspect against the run this season (they’re still a good run defense) but I trust this outside-zone scheme to pay control the pace against New England.

    With no Mostert and a questionable tag on Jeff Wilson, McKinnon should be in for a large workload at a very reasonable price.
  5. Antonio Gibson – While everyone goes to pay down for Gio Bernard, I’ll do everything in my power to move up to Gibson. This is strictly to get off of Gio Bernard in addition to me being in love with Gibson this week for NFL DFS GPP lineups. Dallas is absolutely awful at defending the run (29th in run defense DVOA).

    Honorable Mention: Jamaal Williams, D’Andre Swift, Josh Kelley (big bump up is Justin Jackson is out), James Conner, La’mical Perine

Wide Receivers

  1. Kenny Golladay – All in on Kenny G this week against Atlanta.
  2. Stefon Diggs – Pair em’ up with Josh Allen or run him solo as a pivot off of the chalky top-priced wideouts. No one in this Jets’ secondary can handle Diggs and his elite route running.
  3. Julio Jones / Calvin Ridley – This game is going to shootout. Get exposure to it!
  4. Odell Beckham – I always play Odell Beckham when he’s going completely under the radar. At only $6.1K, I will have a lot of Beckham in my Joe Burrow/Bengals stacks. Feel free to use Hunt/Beckham on the other side. I love this game’s ability to shootout at low ownership. LeShaun Sims in coverage may be one of the worst cover corners in the NFL.
  5. DJ Moore – I have so much Kamara and want to run it back with someone from Carolina. I was on the fence between Robby Anderson and DJ Moore, but have officially decided it will be DJ Moore for me. Anderson is out of my player pool and I hope that doesn’t kill me.
  6. Marquez Valdes-Scantling – I will also include a speedy wideout against Vernon Hargreaves. MVS is consistently racking up a ton of air-yards and he is absolutely primed up for a blowup game. I’m quite confident this is the week.

    Honorable Mention: Tyreek Hill, Tyler Boyd, Tee Higgins, AJ Green, Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, Damiere Byrd, CeeDee Lamb

NFL DFS GPP Tight Ends

  1. Hunter Henry – The AETY Model has Henry projected for 6.02 catches which just just barely behind Travis Kelce. His price is way too low this weekend.
  2. Noah Fant – Fant is probably my favorite GPP tight end this weekend as no one is going to play him. He is by far the most talented pass catcher that is healthy for Denver in a game where they’re going to be chasing points right from the get-go. He should have a field day against the weak part of the Chiefs’ defense (their linebacking core).
  3. Dalton Schultz – No idea why he’s $3,900 on DraftKings. I don’t expect a lot of defense to be played in Washington on Sunday and Schultz/Gibson or Schultz/McLaurin make for perfect salary relief, mini-stacks.

    Honorable Mention: TJ Hockenson, Harrison Bryant, Hayden Hurst, Darren Fells

Good luck to all this week in your NFL DFS GPP lineups!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.

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NBA

1/3 DFS Diamonds: With DFS Pro Javi on NFL

Javier Prellezo
written by Javier Prellezo

I’ll be focusing on my core and GPP plays for the 1/3 DFS Wild Card Weekend for NFL and take a deep dive for each position along with my favorite value plays.   

My Core and Value Plays for ALL Builds :

Sexy 6 – 1/3 DFS

  • Michael Thomas, WR, NO – 1/3 DFS
    • Michael Thomas is my first player for all my tournaments as I start to build out my lineups. He faces a Minnesota pass defense that is highly overrated and defends the tight end pretty well, but struggle in defending the WR. Lock in MT as he’s in line for a huge game this weekend.
  • Alvin Kamara, RB, NO – 1/3 DFS
    • All this workload management for Kamara has led up to these next few weeks. He has been on fire the past few weeks and I think he continues this week against a suspect Minnesota defense.
  • Devin Singletary, RB, BUF – 1/3 DFS
    • Load up my alma mater RB this weekend! Devin Singletary hailing from Boca Raton, FL and the greatest college in the world, FAU Owls. On a serious note, I feel like Houston is falling apart offensively and defensively and have limped into the playoffs. I think the Bills win this one outright even while on the road. Go Owls Go!
  • Julian Edelman, WR, NE – 1/3 DFS
    • It’s the playoffs so this means the Patriots are back. Even though they look horrendous right now, you can’t deny that it’s Tom Brady SZN. I really hope the Titans win outright, but I think the Pats go to work and Edelman is the main reason for it. Titans secondary has been better, but Edelman is feeling better than he has the past few weeks and should smash this Titans secondary.
  • Buffalo Bills DST – 1/3 DFS
    • Not ideal to run a Defense as a Sexy Six pick, but I think the Texans O Line is one of the worst and the Bills should get to Watson quite a few times.
  • John Brown, WR, BUF – 1/3 DFS
    • I’m having a tough time whether to choose John Brown or Josh Allen. Given your build, I want to leave QB off the Sexy Six list. As you construct your lineup, make sure to stack QB and WR so if you can use Drew Brees with MT or Josh Allen with John Brown, I’d say go for it. John Brown is in a great spot against a bottom tier defense in the Texans. Lock him in!

Sexy 6 is the basis for all my builds in both cash and GPP builds. I will most likely lock in a minimum of FOUR for every contest. Due to salary constraints, I doubt I can get all six, but I recommend at least four or five of the recommended players.

Check out my author page right here!

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NFL

How to “Win Daily” in Daily Fantasy Football

written by

Here is a Chapter from the Win Daily Book from our founder Jason Mezrahi. If you like what you see here pick up the book on Amazon! Read along to figure out how to Win Daily Fantasy Football. Sign up for a premium account here.

CHAPTER 11: WIN DAILY IN NFL

“The only place success comes before work is in the dictionary.” –Vince Lombardi

One-week fantasy football has grown in popularity over the last few years and for good reason. The money being awarded to the winners of tournaments has exploded, reaching its peak when DraftKings hosted their Daily Fantasy Football World Championship, with a $15 million prize pool that awarded $5 million to the lucky first-place winner. DraftKings and FanDuel are now running weekly Millionaire Makers awarding $1 million to first-place finishers every week this season. What better way to enjoy the NFL season than to go after a million-dollar prize. It’s more appealing, too, because you can draft a new team each week and not have to worry about shuffling around injured players and draft busts.

Many DFS players consider NFL DFS preferable to MLB and NBA DFS because fantasy players get multiple days between games to research their teams. In addition, there are many great resources out there to break down players’ performances from the previous week and to project their success moving forward. For the casual player who wants to dabble in DFS, I always starting with the NFL. It’s the same advice I give to family and friends. There are plenty of statistical considerations to get into, but first let’s break down the differences between DraftKings and FanDuel’s scoring systems.

Offensive ScoringDraftKings FanDuel
Passing TD+4 Pts +4 Pts
Passing Yards+0.04 Pts/Yard+0.04 Pts/Yard
300 Yards Passing+3 Pts
Interception Allowed-1 Pt -1 Pt
Rushing TD+6 Pts +6 Pts
Rushing Yards+0.1 Pts/Yard+0.1 Pts/Yard
100 Yards Rushing+3 Pts
Receiving TD+6 Pts +6 Pts
Receiving Yards+0.1 Pts/Yard+0.1 Pts/Yard
Reception+1 Pt +0.5 Pts
100 Yards Receiving+3 Pts
Punt/Kickoff/FG Return for TD+6 Pts +6 Pts
Fumble Lost-1 Pt -2 Pts
2 Pt Conversion (Pass, Run, or Catch)+2 Pts +2 Pts
Offensive Fumble Recovery TD+6 Pts +6 Pts

Something that immediately stands out here is that the two systems are very similar, down to the points per yard on passing, receiving, and rushing yards. However, you’ll see that DraftKings awards a full point per reception, while FanDuel gives 0.5 points, a seemingly small distinction but one that may play into your roster construction, as your high-volume receivers, running backs, and tight ends are twice as valuable on DraftKings.

Another key distinction here is that DraftKings awards an extra three points for the milestones of three hundred passing yards, one hundred receiving yards, and one hundred rushing yards. This should definitely factor into your lineup construction, as you’re looking for players on DraftKings who are likely to have a huge breakout game, so you can get those bonus points on top of all the points they’ve already accumulated for you with their raw yardage.

The defensive scoring is as follows:

Defensive ScoringDraftKings FanDuel
Sack+1 Pts +1 Pt
Interception+2 Pts +2 Pts
Fumble Recovery+2 Pts +2 Pts
Interception Return for TD+6 Pts +6 Pts
Fumble Recovery for TD+6 Pts +6 Pts
Blocked Punt or FG Return for TD+6 Pts +6 Pts
Safety+2 Pts +2 Pts
Blocked Punt or FG+2 Pts +2 Pts
2 Pt Conversion/Extra Point Return+2 Pts +2 Pts
0 Points Allowed+10 Pts +10 Pts
1-6 Points Allowed+7 Pts +7 Pts
7-13 Points Allowed+4 Pts +4 Pts
14-20 Points Allowed+1 Pt +1 Pt
21-27 Points Allowed+0 Pts +0 Pts
28-34 Points Allowed-1 Pt -1 Pt
35+ Points Allowed-4 Pts -4 Pts

Defensive scoring is exactly the same. You’ll get big points from defenses who don’t give up many points and get a lot of turnovers. This shouldn’t be all that surprising for you, though, so let’s take a look at roster construction for the two sites.

As we get into rosters, it’s important to note that neither league includes kickers anymore, a change that went into effect for FanDuel in 2018. The positions you must fill on each site are: 

DraftKings FanDuel
QB QB
RB RB
RB RB
WR WR
WR WR
WR WR
TE TE
FLEX FLEX
DEFENSE DEFENSE

The lineup construction has changed over the years, so now the two leagues are exactly the same in this regard. If you’re familiar with football, you should recognize all these positions.

Except one, that is. Let’s talk about the FLEX. The FLEX spot for both sites can be filled with either an RB, WR, or TE. This gives you the opportunity to have 3 RB’s in your lineup, something that may pay off for you if you identify backs who are lining up against weak run defenses, especially in games their teams are favored to win, likely resulting in heavy second-half touches during garbage time to run the clock down and preserve the win.

If you remember the scoring breakdown, though, DraftKings awards a full point per reception while FanDuel gives only 0.5 and DraftKings gives bonuses for yardage milestones, so the way you use this FLEX position should differ between the two leagues. When you’re on DraftKings, you should strongly consider using the FLEX for pass-catching running backs and highly-targeted receivers and tight ends.

“If winning isn’t everything, why do they keep score?” –Vince Lombardi

Football is a shorter season than other sports, with each team only playing sixteen games, so you have plenty of time for research, but every game counts quite a bit more than in baseball. There are certain statistics you should focus on to be successful. First, take a look at a player’s fantasy points per game. You can see how many fantasy points players average and what their totals are from week to week. If you’re looking for a place to start, here you go. This is where you’ll begin to get a feel for who the top performers are. As you get into your research, you can make the distinction between them and your value picks that may be less obvious.

Sites like RotoGrinders also provide projection models that estimate weekly scoring for each player on the slate. There are a bunch of sites out there with different projections, so I do my best to import as many projections as I can to see where all the experts and optimizers stand on each player in the player pool. I make my own personal adjustments based on my research and update that daily as the week goes on.

My goal is to narrow the player pool down by Saturday night. Of course, the more time I have on a given week affects the number of players I may have to choose from. Football is a sport with a great amount of variance, so I try to be selective with my player pool. At the same time, though, I want to add in potential low-owned high-value players that could be in line for a breakout game.

To get a sense of a player’s consistency, take a look at their variation from week to week, which is usually represented by standard deviation. When you draft a high-priced player, you want to be sure that even if they have a down week, they’ll bring you at least fifteen to twenty points and won’t kill the rest of your lineup.

Quarterbacks (QB’s) are essential and less volatile than other positions in your lineup because they get so many opportunities to succeed each week. Not all QB’s are consistent, of course, but you won’t see many QB’s get pulled out of games at halftime or see their attempts fluctuate too wildly from one start to another. Typically, quarterbacks on losing teams perform better in fantasy than quarterbacks on winning ones. This makes sense because when teams are losing, they are going to adopt a more pass-heavy game plan in order to score as quickly as possible, and when they are winning, they will turn to the running game to drain the clock.

However, this fact doesn’t mean you should target every underdog quarterback over the favored ones. If the matchup looks great for a certain quarterback, you should take him even if he’s favored to win the game. The team may shut down the passing game with a lead later on, but they likely will have built that lead with a strong aerial attack. Game script matters, but not so much to keep you from taking a great matchup.

Ideally, you want a good QB on a team with a weak defense and no good RB’s. That way, the team will be down frequently in games and have to throw more often. Because fantasy points are all about accumulation, it doesn’t matter if his completion percentage is terrible, as long as he’s racking up yards and TD’s for you.

Mobile quarterbacks are great picks for DFS because they can rack up points for you in multiple ways. Passing yards are worth 0.04 pts/yard, but rushing yards are worth 2.5 times more at 0.1 pts/yard. So, if you’re choosing between two QB’s, you should take the one who might be able to get outside the pocket and break out for fifty yards rushing at some point during the game—if he does, that scramble would be worth five points for you. On good days, a dual-threat QB like Cam Newton will rush for eighty yards with a rushing TD, giving you a fourteen-point boost in addition to all his passing yards and TD’s.

Touchdowns are hard to predict on a week-to-week basis but there are certain factors we can look at with QB’s to help us predict who’s going to rack up TD’s that week. First, you can look at scoring rates. What percentage of the team’s scores come from the passing game? What percentage of the red-zone scores are through the air? Looking at scoring rates of both the quarterback’s offense and the defense he’s facing that week can give you an idea of how often he’ll get into the end zone.

As you choose your RB’s, WR’s, and TE’s, take a look at snap counts, touches, and targets per game. You want guys who are on the field, get handed the ball, and get thrown the ball a lot.

Snap totals are really important for offensive players. If a player is in a timeshare situation or is battling an injury that’s affecting his snaps each week, he may not be out there when the defense shows a weakness and the offensive coordinator figures out how to exploit it. You might have a guy in a new system who hasn’t won over his coaches yet, or is dealing with a nagging injury, or is just getting outplayed by somebody else at his position.

You can also see how those snap totals are trending. If a player is staying on the field more and more in recent weeks, that’s great, as he’s keeping himself in a position to rack up points. However, if he’s seeing less and less time, you should fade that player, even if he’s a big name. Go with the guys who are going to be in the middle of things all the time. 

Remember that fantasy points aren’t based on averages. If a certain back is averaging four yards per carry, that’s great, but doesn’t do much for your fantasy team if he only gets ten touches in a game. Avoid these kinds of timeshare players who split their action with another guy in their position. A bell cow-type RB who gets closer to three yards per carry but gets the ball thirty times a game is the type of guy you want to target. Volume, volume, volume. Take a look at those touches per game and target those guys week in and week out.

Something to remember as you look at your options, though, is that just like with QB’s, many factors can affect a back’s touches throughout the game. If a team is up a lot of points early in the game, even the most pass-heavy offenses will pull back in their offensive approach and start handing the ball off more frequently to their running backs. The converse is true, as well. If you target an RB who usually gets thirty touches a game but his team is down twenty-one points heading into the second half, it’s unlikely that the player will get many rushes. His teams will likely try to make up the difference with downfield passing plays, leaving him out of the offensive scheme unless the team has dual-threat receiving backs.

The same is true for receivers: go after the guys who get targeted a lot. The number of targets a particular receiver totals indicates how useful he is to the team. With receivers, you should consider Receiver Air Yards (RAY). The statistic adds up the total number of yards thrown toward a receiver on plays in which he’s targeted—both completed passes and incomplete ones. Basically, it gives you a raw number of what would happen if all his targets had turned into catches. This gives you a sense of how much a receiver is a part of his offense’s scheme and helps you compare value between different types of receivers.

An important thing to note about choosing a receiver, though, is that the two systems reward different types of receivers. With the yardage milestone bonuses and a full point per reception, DraftKings rewards possession receivers who get targeted a lot. For instance, a guy who gets ten catches for one hundred yards, basically just moving the chains, would rack up twenty-three points on DraftKings compared to fifteen on FanDuel. So, on DraftKings, the better pick isn’t the exciting player who can stretch the field on long passing plays once or twice per game, tempting as they might be to add to your squad.

Speaking of long passing plays, a statistic to keep in mind is yards per catch (YPC). A player who is near the top of the league in YPC is more likely to get open down the field for a long touchdown catch than a possession receiver whose game is more geared toward getting first down catches to keep the chains moving. If you’re looking for deep threats, YPC is where you want to look.

If you’re not sure about a deep threat receiver, take a look at his quarterback’s yards-per-attempt (YPA). A quarterback who’s averaging around five YPA is simply not looking to stretch the field with deep passes, but if he’s up closer to ten, there’s some big-play potential for that receiver of yours. A player’s success depends on his quarterback and team’s offensive schemes.

Take, for instance, TE Jimmy Graham. He put up great numbers while in New Orleans in a pass-heavy offense centered around Drew Brees. After going to Seattle, his production plummeted. The Seahawks’ system wasn’t as compatible with his strengths, since he preys on slower linebackers who are forced to cover him down the field. As you target players, take a look at how they’ve performed in their current system as well as their historical performance.

Something that made Jimmy Graham so effective in New Orleans was that he was targeted in the red zone nearly every time because of his height and ability to high-point a catch for a TD. Red zone targets are another important statistic to look at, as you want the guys who get the ball around the goal line, so you can rack up those six-point TD’s.

There have been quite a few NFL rule changes over the past few years that benefit offensive players. Defensive backs aren’t allowed to hand-check and hold nearly as much as they used to, and pass rushers basically can’t touch the quarterback at all. Both of these changes have made passing easier. Rule changes to protect receivers, making it illegal to hit defenseless receivers or hit them in the neck/head region, have resulted in more missed tackles and bigger windows for receptions, too. These changes have raised the stakes on your offensive drafting. Offense in NFL DFS has always been important, but these rule changes have made it even more so.

When putting together your team, choosing the right defense will also be important. Because you get points for sacks and turnovers as well as for holding opposing offenses to fewer points, it’s a smart strategy to target teams who get great pressure on the quarterback to force turnovers and hold offenses to low point output.

Taking a look at DVOA (defense value over average) is a good place to start when researching defenses. DVOA calculates a team’s success each play during the season and how successful they are compared to the league average for that down and distance. A defense that ranks near the top in DVOA is better on average week in and week out than the rest of the league. Go after the defense that has proven to be able to game plan against their opponents to hold them to fewer points than other defenses.

Also check out what they defend against well and what they don’t. Some teams are really good against the run but have a weak secondary, and vice versa. A team may have a great DVOA because of their secondary, but if they have an average defensive line and linebacking core and are facing off against a team that’s averaging well over one hundred yards in rushing each week, they’re likely to see that DVOA ranking drop after giving up a lot of points on the ground. The same is true with passing defense numbers. Remember that the game is skewed toward the offense now, and the best offensive teams in each category will beat the best defensive teams in that category.

The best way to target your defense, though, isn’t really about the defense at all. It’s most important to pick your defense based on their opponent. Low-scoring offenses rarely have breakout performances, no matter who they’re up against. So, as you pick your defense, start your research by taking a look at the worst-performing offenses and who they’re playing that week. Especially look to target teams missing their starting QB, key pieces of their offensive line, or their stud RB.

As you identify good matchups, be aware that weather can have an effect—although not as much as you might think. Light rain, snow, or wind doesn’t have much of an effect on offensive players. However, heavy snow and rain can make it more difficult for quarterbacks to throw well, for running backs to hold on to the ball, and for receivers to complete receptions. During snowy games, the amount of accumulation on the ground is very important: while offensive players may be slowed down a bit, defensive players are too, which can open up some great opportunities for long catch-and-run TD’s.

Heavy winds over twenty mph are rare but do occur several times throughout each season. Strong wind will have the worst effect on the offense, affecting quarterbacks and the receiving core most. Be sure to check out the weather reports the day of the games to see if any weather threats are affecting the players you have chosen.

Games played in domes are typically good for offenses, as players will be able to play faster with more sure footing. Identifying offenses with fast skill players who are playing inside that week is a good plan: their speedy guys might be able to break through for big gains during the winter months when other teams’ offenses will be slowed down by heavy snow, rain, and frigid temperatures.

Something else to keep in mind is that injuries are common in the NFL. Reading the practice reports as they come out during the week will be crucial to your success. If a player is inactive or if he’s questionable, take a look at his replacement, especially if it’s an RB in a run-heavy offense or a WR in a pass-heavy one. Teams won’t change their entire offensive structure just because a player is out that week. They will plug the next guy in and keep right on going. These players will typically be flying under the radar, as low-owned backups. However, be careful about reading too much into these reports, as teams are deceptive in their approach and disclose as little as possible about their players’ injuries so that their upcoming opponents don’t catch wind of a crucial injury.

Bye weeks are crucial for players who are battling nagging injuries. If there’s a player who’s been listed on his team’s practice report as questionable for a couple weeks due to a minor injury, but he gets a full bye week to rest, he could be a good buy-low candidate if the team goes into a matchup that will favor them. After an extra week of rest and treatment, he might be lined up for a breakout performance.

The converse of that is when players are coming off a short week or flying cross-country, getting less rest between games. Be especially aware of which direction teams are flying each week. If one of the players you’re considering is on a West Coast team and is heading East to play an early game in the 1:00 p.m. slot, you may want to slide down his projection a tad. That’s a tough adjustment for the player to make, and if you’re considering two players side by side, that might make the difference for you. 

Low-owned players in general should be a place for you to look for value picks. If somebody is struggling early on in a new system or battling injuries but is facing off against a weak defense or other conditions that favor him, it would be a good bet to take a flyer on him as a value pick who may break out. This is especially true when players face off against defenses with certain weaknesses. Maybe an RB is having a tough season but is playing a team with a weak defensive line. That’s a great opportunity to get some value out of a cheaper pick. Similarly, middling receivers versus banged-up secondaries are worth checking out.

We talked about stacking with the MLB, and you can stack in football as well. Stacking your QB with your receiving core is a great idea, as you’ll get points on both ends. In 2017, QB/WR stacks earned 20+ points fifty-two times, or 3.05 times per week. This is a tried-and-true strategy for racking up big points.

Stacking QB/RB is a little more complicated. If the RB on the team catches the ball well out of the backfield, something players like Alvin Kamura do on a consistent basis, you can stack the QB with the RB. This is especially true if the defense they’re facing that day runs a scheme that leaves RB’s out of the backfield uncovered or left to a slower linebacker. You can uncover a great matchup by researching little tidbits like this. However, the only time you’d want to stack a QB with an RB is if he catches the ball out of the backfield a lot. In 2017, there were only twenty-five occurrences of twenty-point QB/RB stacks, or 1.47 per week. There just aren’t that many Alvin Kamura’s and Christian McCaffrey’s out there who are heavily involved in their team’s passing offense.

Because you’re looking for an accumulation of points, you don’t want to take a QB and an RB out of a balanced offense and get a marginal return from both. It would be better for you to take a QB from a pass-heavy offense and an RB from a run-heavy one. That way, you’re taking the biggest producers from each offensive scheme.

You can also stack the entire game, just like with baseball. If you take a look at the Vegas line and the game is projected to be close and high-scoring, you might have a shootout on your hands like Super Bowl LII in 2018. As long as you don’t pick either of the defenses, this situation could really pay off for you. You’ll get points from both offenses as they go back and forth throughout the game. The longer defenses stay on the field, the more tired they get, so that production is only going to increase as you head into the second half.

Think about stacking as a series of correlations. If you stack your QB and WR, you’re betting that they’re going to connect for a lot of passing yards and a couple TD’s. You want these sorts of dependent relationships. Look at how good the two future Hall of Famers Tom Brady and Randy Moss were when they were in New England together. If you took Brady and Moss, not only were you getting two players at the top of their game, every time they connected, you would rack up points with a compounding effect.

You can think about correlations for defenses, too. If you pick a defense to hold their opponent to a few points, the correlation strategy would be to pick that team’s RB as well. If the defense does what it’s supposed to, the team will likely maintain a lead throughout the game and run the ball a lot to wind down the clock.

You’ll also want to examine Vegas lines for all the games on the slate to look for potential full game stacks, to note games to avoid, and to help predict game flow. If the over/under for the game is in the mid to high 50s and the spread is minimal, the betting world is expecting a back-and-forth shootout, an ideal situation for DFS and full game stack purposes. Vegas is only a prediction tool, though, and games with lower totals could provide the same high scoring shootout with the added bonus of low ownership, so don’t be afraid to full game stack a lower Vegas total game.

You can also take a look at the games with a low over/under and pick up one of those defenses. Use the over/under as a reference point for the players you already have penciled into your lineups, too, because if you have an offensive player on one of the teams with an over/under at twenty or fewer points, it’s highly unlikely that they will be the only player who racks up good offensive points in the game.

Check out the spreads as well. If a team is heavily favored, you can use that information to your advantage, as we discussed with blowouts, and pick up the RB that will get a lot of touches late in the game to run down the clock. Likewise, if a team is expected to lose big, that would be a good sign that you should target their QB or top WR.

For full game stacks to pay off, though, you want the game where two bad defenses are squaring off, and you can anticipate a shootout. Then the plan is to stack four to six players with proper correlations. A good combination would be two to four QB-WR-TE from your predicted trailing team along with one to three RB-WR-TE from your predicted leading team. Simply put, combine whoever you think will come out on top with an RB and some receivers, along with the trailing team’s QB and receivers. Then, to round out your team, you can sprinkle in some value plays or high-end guys from other games.

Your strategy should be different depending on the kind of game you’re playing, though. In 50/50s and Double Ups, where half of the field is getting a payout and you just need to finish somewhere in the top half in order to get paid, you want consistency. Take the players who perform well week in, week out and who are in great matchups. Don’t take chances in these games, as it doesn’t pay to gamble on the hopes of finishing first, but it does pay to raise your floor and minimize your risk.

With GPP tournaments, though, you’re trying to win the whole thing and beat the field. This is where taking risks will pay off for you. Identifying more high-risk, high-reward players will be worth your time. Players who aren’t highly-owned would be a good fit for these tournaments, as every point you accumulate with them will jump you up the rankings, as you’ll be one of few players with them on your roster. These high-risk players could be guys who have been injured but are coming off bye weeks or guys who haven’t produced very much thus far but are facing an exploitable defense.

For both DraftKings and FanDuel, you can swap out players until their game starts at kickoff. A great way to use this window to your advantage in tournaments is by filling your FLEX position wisely. If you put the player with the latest start time in that spot, you can sub in an RB, WR, or TE if your FLEX player goes down to illness or injury, giving the FLEX position even more flexibility with swaps later on in the day pending injury news or where your lineup stands. It will open up more players for you to choose from and more opportunities to make late swaps to low-owned players.

If you’re way out of contention heading into the last games of the slate, this is your opportunity to find players who aren’t owned very heavily but have the ability to break out for a huge game and swap them into your lineup. Assuming that you are almost drawing dead and you need a miracle, your best possible scenario is to take a shot on a high-risk, boom-or-bust player who you believe will be low-owned. You have nothing to lose and everything to gain, so if you find yourself in this position, roll the dice and take a chance.

To help you make decisions, you should also know what the pros in the field are saying. Pro Football Focus (PFF) is a great website to check out, as they have a staff of analysts—many of them former players—who give a rating for each player and how well they perform week to week. It’s typically based around how well they accomplish their assignments for linemen, but for skill players, they can identify the times a receiver might have gotten open but didn’t get targeted. They will also note backs who are hitting the right hole but getting stopped by unblocked defenders. They watch all the tape and grade every single play, leaving nothing up to guesswork. You may be able to find a great value pick through PFF.

On PFF, they’ll also give you a layout on who will be covering whom, so you can see where your best matchups are. For example, if you have Antonio Brown versus a guy who isn’t rated very highly, that will make your projection even better. Be leery of shutdown cornerbacks though, unless you have a top-flight WR. Unlike in baseball, good offense beats good defense. So, if you have a great WR going up against a great shutdown CB, he’s probably still going to get points for you. Stick with that pick if the correlation makes sense and your gut tells you to.

“Today I will do what others won’t, so tomorrow I can do what others can’t.” –Jerry Rice

Just like with MLB DFS, the more research you do and the more you play, the easier all of this will get. RotoGrinders is one of the many sources out there with a ton of articles, podcasts, and optimizers to help you out. If you spend some time each week reading the tips from the experts before you make up your lineups, you should see some improvement as you go.

Develop a routine you use every week you play and designate ample time each week to do your research. Continue to refine your process and make the necessary changes week to week until you perfect your process. Before you know it, you’ll have the week where all the stars align, you get a top finish in a big tournament, and cash in your first big payout.

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