DFS NFL

For the first time in history we are entering week 18 of the NFL. Typically, teams without a bye are kicking off the playoffs at this point, but we still have one more regular season week to determine the final seeding positions. Motivation and which teams are actually playing their starters the full allotment of minutes will be the name of the game, so I will be focusing on those two aspects as I select my DFS plays this week. As usual I will be covering the top quarterbacks and players to stack with them for GPP contests across the NFL DFS industry, so any stack that I recommend is in play for both FanDuel and DraftKings. With that said, let’s get to the picks!

The QB’s

A. Kicking things off with a team that does have motivation, although definitely a lower level than some teams on the main slate, we have the Buffalo Bills and their signal caller Josh Allen ($8,100 DK / $8,800 FD). Allen’s price remained flat on Fanduel, while he was bumped up just $100 of salary cap on DK. Allen is the most expensive quarterback on the slate, which is not somewhere that I believe I have gone the entire season up to this point. This is the week to do it though, because we are expected to have a plethora of value at our finger tips and the Bills are facing their hopeless division-mates, the New York Jets. As we know by this point in the season, the Jets are the easiest matchup in the entire NFL, ranking dead last in DVOA, 26th in DVOA against the pass, and dead last in DVOA against the run. The Bills need to win to hold off the Patriots from winning the AFC East for the millionth time, and I expect them to treat this as a playoff tune up and really take it to the Jets. While the Bucs had a strange letdown last week and really should have lost to this team, the Bills are not expected to do the same as they are the largest favorites on the board with a gigantic -16.5 betting line.

B. If, for some reason, we find ourselves needing to save some salary off of the most expensive QB option, then look no further than Taysom Hill ($6,200 DK / $7,700 FD). The Saints not only have playoff motivation on their side, they are also facing off against an awful team in the Atlanta Falcons that has a 0% chance of sniffing the playoffs. While this is not exactly promising from a game-stack perspective, this is the quarterback section and Taysom is in a smash spot. The Falcons have one of the worst defensive units in the NFL, ranking just 29th in DVOA, 30th in DVOA against the pass, and 28th in DVOA against the run. We all know the floor that Hill provides us due to his rushing upside, and the ceiling is also extremely high at this price point in this matchup. This Falcons defensive line ranks dead last in adjusted sack rate in the entire NFL, so Hill should have ample time in the pocket when he is not running wild all over this Falcons squad.

C. The final quarterback that I will look to target in the 2021-2022 NFL regular season is Kyler Murray ($7,400 DK / $8,400 FD). Murray is only the fourth highest-priced QB over on DraftKings, while he is the second highest on FanDuel, so we are getting a better deal over on DK in comparison to other players at his position. The Cardinals check in on week 18 with the third highest implied team total on the entire main slate behind only the two gargantuan favorites, the Bills and Colts. In terms of motivation, the Cardinals will make the playoffs but depending on the result of their game and one or two others, their seed can move around quite a bit. It is always tricky determining how much seeding matters to a team vs. staying healthy, but I expect the Cardinals to be extremely hungry for a win given how poorly they have finished out the regular season. Seattle ranks just 25th in DVOA, although they do rank 8th in DVOA against the pass. Kyler is not a normal quarterback that is as susceptible to how well a team defends the QB position, and we are getting him at a great discount given the team’s recent struggles.

The Stacks

A. We had our first sighting of a player on the Jets that we can use as a bring-back last week, as Braxton Berrios went off as the chalky cheap wide receiver option of the week on DraftKings. However, I want to start with the team that I will have more exposure to in this game as usual, which is the Buffalo Bills. As much as it pains me to say as a Patriots fan, the Bills will almost definitely steamroll the Jets this week. The Jets essentially had their last hurrah last week as they nearly beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but that blown lead essentially sums up their season. Stefon Diggs is one of the top five players I have heard around the industry this week as someone to watch in terms of incentives. He is very close to hitting a few bonuses, so I am sure that he will be letting his quarterback know that he needs to see the ball a few extra times. Sanders, Beasley, and Davis are all essentially interchangeable as second or third receiving options for our Buffalo stacks as well. The DFS sites were quick to bump up the pricing on Berrios as he was both highly owned and a strong performer, which is a recipe for the algorithms to hike up salary rapidly. Due to recency bias, I expect him to be extremely popular yet again this week which is why I will be fully fading him, along with the rest of this awful Jets team, for tournaments.

B. Moving on to the New Orleans Saints, we have an amazing pivot off of the likely chalky Berrios, in Marquez Callaway. Callaway is only $100 more salary than Berrios on DK, and I expect him to carry a fraction of the ownership. Outside of MC however, I am not interested in any of these other pass-catchers as Taysom Hill is not really the type of quarterback that will be helping more than one subpar wideout achieve a ceiling game that will help us win GPPs. Of course the top option to pair with Taysom is Alvin Kamara, and given Hill’s rushing ability and propensity to vulture touchdowns from his RB’s, I expect this combo to be relatively contrarian. As the Falcons play out the final game of yet another disappointing and lost season, they can at least hang their hat on the resurgence of Cordarrelle Patterson. Although Patterson fell off a cliff down the stretch, he had the best season of his career. With that said, I do not have much interest in him or Russel Gage in this game. My sole interest here is on another incentive-driven pass-catcher, rookie tight end Kyle Pitts. While Pitts has massively underwhelmed relative to his expectations, catching only one touchdown all season, he has been able to rack up yards and catches in bunches. He is close to the rookie tight end receiving record which I believe is reason enough to use him as a bring-back option at the notoriously ugly tight end position on DFS sites.

C. To wrap up the regular season, we have the Arizona Cardinals facing off against the Seattle Seahawks in the desert as one of the final games on Sunday before primetime. James Conner is once again a question mark, and if he is unable to suit up, then I will start every Kyler Murray lineup with Chase Edmonds. Christian Kirk has yet to really take advantage of the lack of D-Hop in this lineup, and that has been mostly due to this team and Kyler struggling as a whole. He is a fine option to pair with Kyler for GPPs, as is A.J. Green. The top pass catching option here though is Zach Ertz, which surprises me to type as much as it surprises you to read. As I mentioned above, the tight end position has been truly brutal this year, and Ertz is getting the targets from Kyler that allow him to easily hit and exceed his value at this current price point. We have two ideal bring-back options on the other side of the ball, as both DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett should see plenty of targets given that we should expect Russ to cook for potentially the final time with the Seahawks. Rashaad Penny has been breaking out down the stretch of the regular season as well, and I am fine going to him, although he is easily the third best option from Seattle for us given that Arizona ranks 5th in DVOA against the run.

That will do it for this week’s article. If I am not taking down the million this Sunday, then I hope that it is a member of our WDS fam! Please make sure to check out our projection model by clicking here, and if you have any questions about GPP strategy or the top stacks for the week, I will be in our expert chat in Discord leading up to Sunday afternoon. Feel free to shoot me a DM or @ me in chat! Lastly, do not forget to subscribe to the WinDaily YouTube channel and follow me on Twitter: @AThr0ughZ!

For the first time in history we are entering week 18 of the NFL. Typically, teams without a bye are kicking off the playoffs at this point, but we still have one more regular season week to determine the final seeding positions. Motivation and which teams are actually playing their starters the full allotment of minutes will be the name of the game, so I will be focusing on those two aspects as I select my DFS plays this week. As usual I will be covering the top quarterbacks and players to stack with them for GPP contests across the NFL DFS industry, so any stack that I recommend is in play for both FanDuel and DraftKings. With that said, let’s get to the picks!

The QB’s

A. Kicking things off with a team that does have motivation, although definitely a lower level than some teams on the main slate, we have the Buffalo Bills and their signal caller Josh Allen ($8,100 DK / $8,800 FD). Allen’s price remained flat on Fanduel, while he was bumped up just $100 of salary cap on DK. Allen is the most expensive quarterback on the slate, which is not somewhere that I believe I have gone the entire season up to this point. This is the week to do it though, because we are expected to have a plethora of value at our finger tips and the Bills are facing their hopeless division-mates, the New York Jets. As we know by this point in the season, the Jets are the easiest matchup in the entire NFL, ranking dead last in DVOA, 26th in DVOA against the pass, and dead last in DVOA against the run. The Bills need to win to hold off the Patriots from winning the AFC East for the millionth time, and I expect them to treat this as a playoff tune up and really take it to the Jets. While the Bucs had a strange letdown last week and really should have lost to this team, the Bills are not expected to do the same as they are the largest favorites on the board with a gigantic -16.5 betting line.

B. If, for some reason, we find ourselves needing to save some salary off of the most expensive QB option, then look no further than Taysom Hill ($6,200 DK / $7,700 FD). The Saints not only have playoff motivation on their side, they are also facing off against an awful team in the Atlanta Falcons that has a 0% chance of sniffing the playoffs. While this is not exactly promising from a game-stack perspective, this is the quarterback section and Taysom is in a smash spot. The Falcons have one of the worst defensive units in the NFL, ranking just 29th in DVOA, 30th in DVOA against the pass, and 28th in DVOA against the run. We all know the floor that Hill provides us due to his rushing upside, and the ceiling is also extremely high at this price point in this matchup. This Falcons defensive line ranks dead last in adjusted sack rate in the entire NFL, so Hill should have ample time in the pocket when he is not running wild all over this Falcons squad.

C. The final quarterback that I will look to target in the 2021-2022 NFL regular season is Kyler Murray ($7,400 DK / $8,400 FD). Murray is only the fourth highest-priced QB over on DraftKings, while he is the second highest on FanDuel, so we are getting a better deal over on DK in comparison to other players at his position. The Cardinals check in on week 18 with the third highest implied team total on the entire main slate behind only the two gargantuan favorites, the Bills and Colts. In terms of motivation, the Cardinals will make the playoffs but depending on the result of their game and one or two others, their seed can move around quite a bit. It is always tricky determining how much seeding matters to a team vs. staying healthy, but I expect the Cardinals to be extremely hungry for a win given how poorly they have finished out the regular season. Seattle ranks just 25th in DVOA, although they do rank 8th in DVOA against the pass. Kyler is not a normal quarterback that is as susceptible to how well a team defends the QB position, and we are getting him at a great discount given the team’s recent struggles.

The Stacks

A. We had our first sighting of a player on the Jets that we can use as a bring-back last week, as Braxton Berrios went off as the chalky cheap wide receiver option of the week on DraftKings. However, I want to start with the team that I will have more exposure to in this game as usual, which is the Buffalo Bills. As much as it pains me to say as a Patriots fan, the Bills will almost definitely steamroll the Jets this week. The Jets essentially had their last hurrah last week as they nearly beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but that blown lead essentially sums up their season. Stefon Diggs is one of the top five players I have heard around the industry this week as someone to watch in terms of incentives. He is very close to hitting a few bonuses, so I am sure that he will be letting his quarterback know that he needs to see the ball a few extra times. Sanders, Beasley, and Davis are all essentially interchangeable as second or third receiving options for our Buffalo stacks as well. The DFS sites were quick to bump up the pricing on Berrios as he was both highly owned and a strong performer, which is a recipe for the algorithms to hike up salary rapidly. Due to recency bias, I expect him to be extremely popular yet again this week which is why I will be fully fading him, along with the rest of this awful Jets team, for tournaments.

B. Moving on to the New Orleans Saints, we have an amazing pivot off of the likely chalky Berrios, in Marquez Callaway. Callaway is only $100 more salary than Berrios on DK, and I expect him to carry a fraction of the ownership. Outside of MC however, I am not interested in any of these other pass-catchers as Taysom Hill is not really the type of quarterback that will be helping more than one subpar wideout achieve a ceiling game that will help us win GPPs. Of course the top option to pair with Taysom is Alvin Kamara, and given Hill’s rushing ability and propensity to vulture touchdowns from his RB’s, I expect this combo to be relatively contrarian. As the Falcons play out the final game of yet another disappointing and lost season, they can at least hang their hat on the resurgence of Cordarrelle Patterson. Although Patterson fell off a cliff down the stretch, he had the best season of his career. With that said, I do not have much interest in him or Russel Gage in this game. My sole interest here is on another incentive-driven pass-catcher, rookie tight end Kyle Pitts. While Pitts has massively underwhelmed relative to his expectations, catching only one touchdown all season, he has been able to rack up yards and catches in bunches. He is close to the rookie tight end receiving record which I believe is reason enough to use him as a bring-back option at the notoriously ugly tight end position on DFS sites.

C. To wrap up the regular season, we have the Arizona Cardinals facing off against the Seattle Seahawks in the desert as one of the final games on Sunday before primetime. James Conner is once again a question mark, and if he is unable to suit up, then I will start every Kyler Murray lineup with Chase Edmonds. Christian Kirk has yet to really take advantage of the lack of D-Hop in this lineup, and that has been mostly due to this team and Kyler struggling as a whole. He is a fine option to pair with Kyler for GPPs, as is A.J. Green. The top pass catching option here though is Zach Ertz, which surprises me to type as much as it surprises you to read. As I mentioned above, the tight end position has been truly brutal this year, and Ertz is getting the targets from Kyler that allow him to easily hit and exceed his value at this current price point. We have two ideal bring-back options on the other side of the ball, as both DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett should see plenty of targets given that we should expect Russ to cook for potentially the final time with the Seahawks. Rashaad Penny has been breaking out down the stretch of the regular season as well, and I am fine going to him, although he is easily the third best option from Seattle for us given that Arizona ranks 5th in DVOA against the run.

That will do it for this week’s article. If I am not taking down the million this Sunday, then I hope that it is a member of our WDS fam! Please make sure to check out our projection model by clicking here, and if you have any questions about GPP strategy or the top stacks for the week, I will be in our expert chat in Discord leading up to Sunday afternoon. Feel free to shoot me a DM or @ me in chat! Lastly, do not forget to subscribe to the WinDaily YouTube channel and follow me on Twitter: @AThr0ughZ!

We have yet another strange slate in the NFL this week as we have a massive 14 game main slate on Sunday with no Thursday or Saturday games. This is not Covid-driven for once, and it is nice to see the NFL quickly adjusting their protocols as things rapidly evolve. Regardless, we enter the second to last week of the NFL season with still many pieces up in the air, but they will really start to fall into place after Sunday, so let’s get to it. As usual I will be covering the top quarterbacks and players to stack with them for GPP contests across the NFL DFS industry, so any stack that I recommend is in play for both FanDuel and DraftKings. With that said, let’s get to the picks!

The QB’s

A. We had to be a bit creative at the quarterback position last week, and hopefully many of my loyal readers were able to profit off of the second QB that I wrote up for week 16, as Joe Burrow went bananas against the Ravens. Luckily for us, this week we do not need to mess around at this position as we have three elite arms at our disposal. The top of the list is the goat himself, Tom Brady ($7,600 DK / $8,300 FD) who will be facing off against his familiar AFC East punching bag and one of the most pathetic franchises in professional sports, the New York Jets. This Jets defense ranks dead last in DVOA, 29th in pass DVOA, and dead last in run DVOA. In other words, they are the worst defense in the entire national football league, so we really do not need to overthink this one. This game currently only has the fourth highest total on the board due to the expected lack of offensive production from the Jets, so hopefully we are able to get TB12 at low ownership.

B. The second elite arm that we should look to get plenty of exposure to for week 17 of the NFL is Josh Allen ($8,000 DK / $8,800 FD). I was at the game last Sunday where Allen absolutely dismantled my Patriots defense, so I saw first hand that he is on his game heading into the final weeks of the regular season. If he can do that to the Pats, just imagine what we can expect from him against an Atlanta Falcons team that ranks second to last in DVOA, 25th in pass DVOA, and 29th in run DVOA. I also always love to take a look at the sack potential of each game to see when a quarterback will have plenty of time in the pocket, and you guessed it, Josh Allen has the lowest likelihood of being sacked or pressured of any signal caller in week 17. This is based on the Atlanta Falcons defensive line ranking dead last in the NFL, coupled with a Bills offensive line that is the third highest rated unit. Allen with time in the pocket is a scary thing, and even though we need to pay way up for him, that should only help to further lower his ownership in tournaments this week.

C. As I mentioned above, the Ravens secondary is on watch after what the Bengals did to them last Sunday, so why not ride that potential wave of fantasy goodness with Matthew Stafford ($7,100 DK / $7,600 FD) and the Los Angeles Rams. The Ravens do rank 28th in total DVOA, so clearly this is a very poor defensive unit, although they somehow rank 6th in DVOA against the pass. As I mentioned with Joe Burrow last week, we can really ignore that DVOA against the pass number and hope others see it and avoid this spot. It did not seem like JB cared that this Ravens defense is ranked 6th in DVOA against the pass. They are ranked second to last in DvP against opposing quarterbacks, and Stafford is another reliable arm that we can target at a slightly lower salary than the two aforementioned spend-up options.

The Stacks

A. One of the value plays that you absolutely had to have last week was Antonio Brown at $4.9K on DraftKings, and he is still firmly in play this week despite DK shooting his price up to $6.1K. That is still way too cheap with Godwin definitely out, and Evans potentially out, so this is a spot for us to keep an eye on as we head towards Sunday afternoon. If Evans clears the updated protocols, then both he and AB are excellent pairing options with Tom Brady, and we can even mix in either Ronald Jones or Ke’Shawn Vaughn. I will likely side with Vaughn here as he put up similar production to Jones last week with Fournette out, yet he is significantly cheaper and we will likely need that salary savings given that we are paying up at QB. Vaughn did only see seven carries and one target compared to Jones’ 20 carries and three targets though, so we should tread lightly and try to squeeze in Jones. As usual with a team facing the Jets, I will not be touching any of the bring backs, and would be more likely to get exposure to a third/fourth Bucs player in Rob Gronkowski if looking for additional exposure to this game.

B. The Buffalo Bills continue to have a running game that we can avoid, and that will really always be the case as long as this coaching staff is around and both Devin Singletary and Zack Moss are healthy. The receiving unit is returning this week as we should see Allen have Diggs, Sanders, and Davis as options for Sunday. Out-spoken anti-vaxxer Cole Beasley has also been activated so we now have quite the crowd. Diggs is the top option as usual, and I would look to pair him with Beasley, as Davis is now way overpriced given the bodies at wideout, and Sanders has been nothing short of a massive disappointment this season. Unlike the Jets, I do have some bring-back interest in the Falcons as Cordarrelle Patterson has slate-breaking upside for us at a price of $6.9K on DK. Gage is someone who is tough to trust, but the Falcons will likely be passing the ball on nearly every play as they try to keep pace with this Bills offense. This script will also benefit Kyle Pitts, who actually turned in a solid outing in week 16 and should be looking to end the season on a high note despite underachieving his expectations to date.

C. Of course with any lineup that has Matthew Stafford in it, and really with any DFS lineup in general, we should look to try to jam in the number one wide receiver in the league this season, Cooper Kupp. We will need some news to come across our screens so that we are able to find decent value to afford his $9.5K price tag, but he is obviously priority number one on this slate. Cam Akers is apparently an absolute machine, as he practiced in full and will be returning to the lineup this week after we expected him to miss the entire season. That really muddies the water of this backfield, making it one I will definitely be avoiding this week. Odell Beckham seems to have a firm grip on the WR2 spot for this Rams team, but I really view him and Van Jefferson as relatively interchangeable pieces for us to get exposure to. Tyler Higbee is a fine option at a reasonable $4K price point as well for week 17. As usual, the only two options we should be looking at from the Ravens are Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews, as they look to get their team to bounce back after that rough outing against Cincinnati.

That will do it for this week’s article. If I am not taking down the million this Sunday, then I hope that it is a member of our WDS fam! Please make sure to check out our projection model by clicking here, and if you have any questions about GPP strategy or the top stacks for the week, I will be in our expert chat in Discord leading up to Sunday afternoon. Feel free to shoot me a DM or @ me in chat! Lastly, do not forget to subscribe to the WinDaily YouTube channel and follow me on Twitter: @AThr0ughZ!

We have yet another strange slate in the NFL this week as we have a massive 14 game main slate on Sunday with no Thursday or Saturday games. This is not Covid-driven for once, and it is nice to see the NFL quickly adjusting their protocols as things rapidly evolve. Regardless, we enter the second to last week of the NFL season with still many pieces up in the air, but they will really start to fall into place after Sunday, so let’s get to it. As usual I will be covering the top quarterbacks and players to stack with them for GPP contests across the NFL DFS industry, so any stack that I recommend is in play for both FanDuel and DraftKings. With that said, let’s get to the picks!

The QB’s

A. We had to be a bit creative at the quarterback position last week, and hopefully many of my loyal readers were able to profit off of the second QB that I wrote up for week 16, as Joe Burrow went bananas against the Ravens. Luckily for us, this week we do not need to mess around at this position as we have three elite arms at our disposal. The top of the list is the goat himself, Tom Brady ($7,600 DK / $8,300 FD) who will be facing off against his familiar AFC East punching bag and one of the most pathetic franchises in professional sports, the New York Jets. This Jets defense ranks dead last in DVOA, 29th in pass DVOA, and dead last in run DVOA. In other words, they are the worst defense in the entire national football league, so we really do not need to overthink this one. This game currently only has the fourth highest total on the board due to the expected lack of offensive production from the Jets, so hopefully we are able to get TB12 at low ownership.

B. The second elite arm that we should look to get plenty of exposure to for week 17 of the NFL is Josh Allen ($8,000 DK / $8,800 FD). I was at the game last Sunday where Allen absolutely dismantled my Patriots defense, so I saw first hand that he is on his game heading into the final weeks of the regular season. If he can do that to the Pats, just imagine what we can expect from him against an Atlanta Falcons team that ranks second to last in DVOA, 25th in pass DVOA, and 29th in run DVOA. I also always love to take a look at the sack potential of each game to see when a quarterback will have plenty of time in the pocket, and you guessed it, Josh Allen has the lowest likelihood of being sacked or pressured of any signal caller in week 17. This is based on the Atlanta Falcons defensive line ranking dead last in the NFL, coupled with a Bills offensive line that is the third highest rated unit. Allen with time in the pocket is a scary thing, and even though we need to pay way up for him, that should only help to further lower his ownership in tournaments this week.

C. As I mentioned above, the Ravens secondary is on watch after what the Bengals did to them last Sunday, so why not ride that potential wave of fantasy goodness with Matthew Stafford ($7,100 DK / $7,600 FD) and the Los Angeles Rams. The Ravens do rank 28th in total DVOA, so clearly this is a very poor defensive unit, although they somehow rank 6th in DVOA against the pass. As I mentioned with Joe Burrow last week, we can really ignore that DVOA against the pass number and hope others see it and avoid this spot. It did not seem like JB cared that this Ravens defense is ranked 6th in DVOA against the pass. They are ranked second to last in DvP against opposing quarterbacks, and Stafford is another reliable arm that we can target at a slightly lower salary than the two aforementioned spend-up options.

The Stacks

A. One of the value plays that you absolutely had to have last week was Antonio Brown at $4.9K on DraftKings, and he is still firmly in play this week despite DK shooting his price up to $6.1K. That is still way too cheap with Godwin definitely out, and Evans potentially out, so this is a spot for us to keep an eye on as we head towards Sunday afternoon. If Evans clears the updated protocols, then both he and AB are excellent pairing options with Tom Brady, and we can even mix in either Ronald Jones or Ke’Shawn Vaughn. I will likely side with Vaughn here as he put up similar production to Jones last week with Fournette out, yet he is significantly cheaper and we will likely need that salary savings given that we are paying up at QB. Vaughn did only see seven carries and one target compared to Jones’ 20 carries and three targets though, so we should tread lightly and try to squeeze in Jones. As usual with a team facing the Jets, I will not be touching any of the bring backs, and would be more likely to get exposure to a third/fourth Bucs player in Rob Gronkowski if looking for additional exposure to this game.

B. The Buffalo Bills continue to have a running game that we can avoid, and that will really always be the case as long as this coaching staff is around and both Devin Singletary and Zack Moss are healthy. The receiving unit is returning this week as we should see Allen have Diggs, Sanders, and Davis as options for Sunday. Out-spoken anti-vaxxer Cole Beasley has also been activated so we now have quite the crowd. Diggs is the top option as usual, and I would look to pair him with Beasley, as Davis is now way overpriced given the bodies at wideout, and Sanders has been nothing short of a massive disappointment this season. Unlike the Jets, I do have some bring-back interest in the Falcons as Cordarrelle Patterson has slate-breaking upside for us at a price of $6.9K on DK. Gage is someone who is tough to trust, but the Falcons will likely be passing the ball on nearly every play as they try to keep pace with this Bills offense. This script will also benefit Kyle Pitts, who actually turned in a solid outing in week 16 and should be looking to end the season on a high note despite underachieving his expectations to date.

C. Of course with any lineup that has Matthew Stafford in it, and really with any DFS lineup in general, we should look to try to jam in the number one wide receiver in the league this season, Cooper Kupp. We will need some news to come across our screens so that we are able to find decent value to afford his $9.5K price tag, but he is obviously priority number one on this slate. Cam Akers is apparently an absolute machine, as he practiced in full and will be returning to the lineup this week after we expected him to miss the entire season. That really muddies the water of this backfield, making it one I will definitely be avoiding this week. Odell Beckham seems to have a firm grip on the WR2 spot for this Rams team, but I really view him and Van Jefferson as relatively interchangeable pieces for us to get exposure to. Tyler Higbee is a fine option at a reasonable $4K price point as well for week 17. As usual, the only two options we should be looking at from the Ravens are Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews, as they look to get their team to bounce back after that rough outing against Cincinnati.

That will do it for this week’s article. If I am not taking down the million this Sunday, then I hope that it is a member of our WDS fam! Please make sure to check out our projection model by clicking here, and if you have any questions about GPP strategy or the top stacks for the week, I will be in our expert chat in Discord leading up to Sunday afternoon. Feel free to shoot me a DM or @ me in chat! Lastly, do not forget to subscribe to the WinDaily YouTube channel and follow me on Twitter: @AThr0ughZ!

I am back this week after a birthday vacation last week. I missed week 15 due to my birthday on the 15th, so hopefully that is some sort of good omen as we head into week 16! If I were to pick a week to miss it would definitely be last week, as COVID was running rampant and resulted in games being either postponed or turned into ugly training camp scrimmages. Luckily, this week looks a bit better and despite having Saturday games we still have our typical 11 game main slate since no teams will be on a bye anymore for the rest of the season. As usual I will be covering the top quarterbacks and players to stack with them for GPP contests across the NFL DFS industry, so any stack that I recommend is in play for both FanDuel and DraftKings. With that said, let’s get to the picks!

The QB’s

A. We have toilet bowl round two this week, as the Jaguars travel up the East coast to face off against the pathetic franchise that is the New York Jets. I will of course be avoiding that game like the plague, however one garbage team that I do have some interest in is the Detroit Lions, as the Falcons defense is absolutely horrendous season after season. The problem there is that whole Covid thing, as Jared Goff tested positive on Monday so we are not sure if he will be able to play. Instead, I will be looking to get plenty of exposure to Matt Ryan ($5,400 DK / $6,800 FD) on the other side of that game. This is of course a GPP-only type of play, as the Falcons offensive line has been so horrendous this season that poor Matt Ryan is forced to basically throw the ball within one second or take a sack. This is the perfect matchup to cure what ails this team though, as the Detroit Lions defensive line ranks 31st in the entire league in adjusted sack rate. The sack potential for this game on both sides of the ball is actually dead last of any game in week 16, so we should expect both signal callers to have plenty of time in the pocket. Not to mention, the lions rank 29th in both total DVOA and DVOA against the pass. Sign me up for some Matty Ice shares at extremely reasonable prices on Sunday.

B. A quarterback that will likely be much more popular than Matt Ryan is Joe Burrow ($5,900 DK / $7,100 FD), however with that popularity comes a higher floor and ceiling combination. If you did not see JB’s quote about why the Bengals have been able to limit their Covid cases then you should go look it up because it is hilarious, but also very true. I digress, Cincinnati draws a week 16 matchup against the Baltimore Ravens who have been uncharacteristically bad on the defensive side of the football this season, ranking just 27th in total DVOA. Baltimore does rank 5th in DVOA against the pass, so there is a chance that the masses avoid Burrow in this spot, given that the Ravens are much more susceptible to opposing rushing attacks, ranking just 25th in DVOA against the run. This game is expected to be very close as the spread is within a field goal, and points should also come into play in bunches given that we have the second highest implied total on the entire main slate in this spot. Few will expect a game between the Bengals and the Ravens to vie for the highest total of the week, so we should take advantage.

C. Our quarterback options honestly start to get quite ugly pretty quickly for the main slate, so the final QB that I will be targeting for tournaments is Derek Carr ($5,800 DK / $7,000 FD). Carr has had a tumultuous season throughout 2021, with some shining moments and some rough spots. This is far from a slam dunk matchup, but he really is our third best option for this main slate. The Raiders will be taking on the Denver Broncos in another game that is very close to a pick ’em. The Broncos rank 21st in team DVOA, and 23rd in DVOA against the pass, while somehow managing to rank 4th in DVOA against opposing QBs. I certainly do not love this play, but the Raiders have easy options for us to stack with and they will be in what is likely one of the most competitive games on Sunday.

The Stacks

A. Well, I think it is about time that anyone who drafted Kyle Pitts early in their season-long drafts or rostered him on more than a few DFS lineups takes their L. Pitts is of course a rookie so this should be expected, but the way that many an analyst was talking about him before the season made it seem like he would come into the league and immediately be a top three tight end. Yes, the Falcons certainly hold him back, but boy has he not even come remotely close to living up to expectations. If we roster Matt Ryan, we need to find at least one Falcons skill position player to pair with him, and for me that top option is Russell Gage. While he tends to totally disappear at times, this game sets up to be one where Matty Ice can get him the ball. Cordarrelle Patterson seems to have fallen out of favor lately, which is the perfect time for us to hop back on the bus in what will be the best matchup he has drawn all season. On the Lions side of the ball, Amon-Ra St. Brown has been going off the last few weeks, but I can only roster him if Jared Goff is able to lead this team and get out of the Covid protocols. De’Andre Swift may also return this week, so as usual at this point in the season, we will need to keep a very close eye on the news heading into Sunday.

B. I feel much more comfortable with our stacking options to pair up with Joe Burrow, as his top three wideouts Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd are all very talented pass-catchers. The issue is isolating which one or two of them are going to have a big game week to week. Chase is obviously the top dog here and someone that we should try to pair with Burrow whenever we can afford him, while Higgins and Boyd are more interchangeable in our Bengals stacks. Joe Mixon is another question mark that we will need to keep an eye on, but if he is a full go then I am fine including him in Burrow lineups as well. On the Ravens side of this game, Mark Andrews continues to show us why he is a top three tight end in the NFL along with Kittle and Kelce. Marquise Brown has been very quite but his price has come all the way down to $5.8K, so he is an amazing bring-back option for us at what should be very low ownership.

C. To close things out on week 16, we have another player that may or may not play in Darren Waller, which we will have to monitor closely. If he does play, then he is an excellent tournament play at what should yet again be low ownership. If he is out, we can continue to target Hunter Renfrow who had a down game last week but should bounce back nicely in a competitive game at home. Josh Jacobs is another RB that I do not mind pairing with his quarterback, as he catches passes and is a major part of this offense. On the Broncos side, Jerry Jeudy looked like he could not even move last week, so I am way off of him as a viable DFS option. Noah Fant and Courtland Sutton are perfectly fine options that will save us some salary, but Javonte Williams is clearly the most talented skill position player on this team by miles. Melvin Gordon lingering definitely hurts him, but he is a viable bring-back option for us if we stack this game. Just keep in mind, this game does have a total floating down near the 40 mark, so we should tread relatively lightly.

That will do it for this week’s article. If I am not taking down the million this Sunday, then I hope that it is a member of our WDS fam! Please make sure to check out our projection model by clicking here, and if you have any questions about GPP strategy or the top stacks for the week, I will be in our expert chat in Discord leading up to Sunday afternoon. Feel free to shoot me a DM or @ me in chat! Lastly, do not forget to subscribe to the WinDaily YouTube channel and follow me on Twitter: @AThr0ughZ!

I am back this week after a birthday vacation last week. I missed week 15 due to my birthday on the 15th, so hopefully that is some sort of good omen as we head into week 16! If I were to pick a week to miss it would definitely be last week, as COVID was running rampant and resulted in games being either postponed or turned into ugly training camp scrimmages. Luckily, this week looks a bit better and despite having Saturday games we still have our typical 11 game main slate since no teams will be on a bye anymore for the rest of the season. As usual I will be covering the top quarterbacks and players to stack with them for GPP contests across the NFL DFS industry, so any stack that I recommend is in play for both FanDuel and DraftKings. With that said, let’s get to the picks!

The QB’s

A. We have toilet bowl round two this week, as the Jaguars travel up the East coast to face off against the pathetic franchise that is the New York Jets. I will of course be avoiding that game like the plague, however one garbage team that I do have some interest in is the Detroit Lions, as the Falcons defense is absolutely horrendous season after season. The problem there is that whole Covid thing, as Jared Goff tested positive on Monday so we are not sure if he will be able to play. Instead, I will be looking to get plenty of exposure to Matt Ryan ($5,400 DK / $6,800 FD) on the other side of that game. This is of course a GPP-only type of play, as the Falcons offensive line has been so horrendous this season that poor Matt Ryan is forced to basically throw the ball within one second or take a sack. This is the perfect matchup to cure what ails this team though, as the Detroit Lions defensive line ranks 31st in the entire league in adjusted sack rate. The sack potential for this game on both sides of the ball is actually dead last of any game in week 16, so we should expect both signal callers to have plenty of time in the pocket. Not to mention, the lions rank 29th in both total DVOA and DVOA against the pass. Sign me up for some Matty Ice shares at extremely reasonable prices on Sunday.

B. A quarterback that will likely be much more popular than Matt Ryan is Joe Burrow ($5,900 DK / $7,100 FD), however with that popularity comes a higher floor and ceiling combination. If you did not see JB’s quote about why the Bengals have been able to limit their Covid cases then you should go look it up because it is hilarious, but also very true. I digress, Cincinnati draws a week 16 matchup against the Baltimore Ravens who have been uncharacteristically bad on the defensive side of the football this season, ranking just 27th in total DVOA. Baltimore does rank 5th in DVOA against the pass, so there is a chance that the masses avoid Burrow in this spot, given that the Ravens are much more susceptible to opposing rushing attacks, ranking just 25th in DVOA against the run. This game is expected to be very close as the spread is within a field goal, and points should also come into play in bunches given that we have the second highest implied total on the entire main slate in this spot. Few will expect a game between the Bengals and the Ravens to vie for the highest total of the week, so we should take advantage.

C. Our quarterback options honestly start to get quite ugly pretty quickly for the main slate, so the final QB that I will be targeting for tournaments is Derek Carr ($5,800 DK / $7,000 FD). Carr has had a tumultuous season throughout 2021, with some shining moments and some rough spots. This is far from a slam dunk matchup, but he really is our third best option for this main slate. The Raiders will be taking on the Denver Broncos in another game that is very close to a pick ’em. The Broncos rank 21st in team DVOA, and 23rd in DVOA against the pass, while somehow managing to rank 4th in DVOA against opposing QBs. I certainly do not love this play, but the Raiders have easy options for us to stack with and they will be in what is likely one of the most competitive games on Sunday.

The Stacks

A. Well, I think it is about time that anyone who drafted Kyle Pitts early in their season-long drafts or rostered him on more than a few DFS lineups takes their L. Pitts is of course a rookie so this should be expected, but the way that many an analyst was talking about him before the season made it seem like he would come into the league and immediately be a top three tight end. Yes, the Falcons certainly hold him back, but boy has he not even come remotely close to living up to expectations. If we roster Matt Ryan, we need to find at least one Falcons skill position player to pair with him, and for me that top option is Russell Gage. While he tends to totally disappear at times, this game sets up to be one where Matty Ice can get him the ball. Cordarrelle Patterson seems to have fallen out of favor lately, which is the perfect time for us to hop back on the bus in what will be the best matchup he has drawn all season. On the Lions side of the ball, Amon-Ra St. Brown has been going off the last few weeks, but I can only roster him if Jared Goff is able to lead this team and get out of the Covid protocols. De’Andre Swift may also return this week, so as usual at this point in the season, we will need to keep a very close eye on the news heading into Sunday.

B. I feel much more comfortable with our stacking options to pair up with Joe Burrow, as his top three wideouts Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd are all very talented pass-catchers. The issue is isolating which one or two of them are going to have a big game week to week. Chase is obviously the top dog here and someone that we should try to pair with Burrow whenever we can afford him, while Higgins and Boyd are more interchangeable in our Bengals stacks. Joe Mixon is another question mark that we will need to keep an eye on, but if he is a full go then I am fine including him in Burrow lineups as well. On the Ravens side of this game, Mark Andrews continues to show us why he is a top three tight end in the NFL along with Kittle and Kelce. Marquise Brown has been very quite but his price has come all the way down to $5.8K, so he is an amazing bring-back option for us at what should be very low ownership.

C. To close things out on week 16, we have another player that may or may not play in Darren Waller, which we will have to monitor closely. If he does play, then he is an excellent tournament play at what should yet again be low ownership. If he is out, we can continue to target Hunter Renfrow who had a down game last week but should bounce back nicely in a competitive game at home. Josh Jacobs is another RB that I do not mind pairing with his quarterback, as he catches passes and is a major part of this offense. On the Broncos side, Jerry Jeudy looked like he could not even move last week, so I am way off of him as a viable DFS option. Noah Fant and Courtland Sutton are perfectly fine options that will save us some salary, but Javonte Williams is clearly the most talented skill position player on this team by miles. Melvin Gordon lingering definitely hurts him, but he is a viable bring-back option for us if we stack this game. Just keep in mind, this game does have a total floating down near the 40 mark, so we should tread relatively lightly.

That will do it for this week’s article. If I am not taking down the million this Sunday, then I hope that it is a member of our WDS fam! Please make sure to check out our projection model by clicking here, and if you have any questions about GPP strategy or the top stacks for the week, I will be in our expert chat in Discord leading up to Sunday afternoon. Feel free to shoot me a DM or @ me in chat! Lastly, do not forget to subscribe to the WinDaily YouTube channel and follow me on Twitter: @AThr0ughZ!

We are beginning to enter the home stretch of the season as week 14 of the NFL kicks off this evening with the Steelers taking on the Vikings who just handed the Lions their first and only win of the season. The playoff picture is beginning to become more and more clear and that will only continue as we come down to the final weeks as we wind out December. As usual I will be covering the top quarterbacks and players to stack with them for GPP contests across the NFL DFS industry, so any stack that I recommend is in play for both FanDuel and DraftKings. With that said, let’s get to the picks!

The QB’s

A. We have a very unique situation for week 14 of the NFL, as the three worst teams in total DVOA are all on the main slate for what I believe to be the first time all season. Another wild aspect of this is the fact that all 3 of those teams also have the same rank in DVOA against the pass as they do in total DVOA. The top option for us this week is Taysom Hill ($5,600 DK / $7,700 FD) as he is just way under priced for his potential production. Not only is he one of the few quarterbacks that still contributes heavily in the rushing department, but he also draws the best possible matchup for a signal caller as he faces off against the New York Jets. The Jets rank dead last in the entire NFL in total DVOA and DVOA against the pass, while also ranking 3rd worst in DVOA against the run. This team boasts the absolute bottom of the barrel worst defense in the NFL, and with Alvin Kamara likely returning, this Saints offense should be able to walk all over New York. I will save further analysis for the stacks section, but this Jets team ranks dead last in DvP against the running back position as well, so I think you can see where I will be getting heavy exposure in addition to Hill.

B. I hate to just cherry pick the quarterbacks that are facing the bottom three defenses in the league, but I really think it is honestly this easy this week. The tricky part will be determining where to differentiate with our stacks. Ryan Tannehill ($6,400 DK / $7,300 FD) and the Tennessee Titans will be taking on the second worst defense in the entire NFL, the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jags rank second to last in both total DVOA and DVOA against the pass, however unlike the Jets, they are at least average in terms of defending the run. Of the 28 teams taking the field in week 14, the Titans come in at 20th in terms of sack likelihood on Tannehill. In other words, Tannehill should have the 9th easiest time passing the football in the pocket and we should not expect him to be pressured very often, according to the strength of the Tennessee offensive line against the week Jacksonville defensive line. Tannehill should be able to have his way with this defense, and it will be icing on the cake if Julio Jones is also able to return.

C. The last quarterback that is facing a bottom three defense on the main slate is none other than Dak Prescott ($6,700 DK / $8,100 FD). While he is the most expensive of the three, he will likely be significantly lower-owned than Taysom Hill for tournaments. The Washington Football Team really needs to come up with an actual name, it is insane how long this has taken. Anyway, they are horrendous at defending in football games, as they rank 30th in both total DVOA and DVOA against the pass. The Cowboys will be calling passing plays at an enormous rate, given that both of their runningbacks are banged up and the fact that WFT actually ranks 8th in DVOA against the rush. Washington ranks dead last in DvP against the QB position, so we should absolutely expect a ceiling game for Dak, especially that he now has his weapons healthy. The Cowboys should absolutely roll in this spot, and I expect Dak to be one of the top scoring quarterbacks on the slate.

The Stacks

A. Similar to the Kansas City Chiefs, the New Orleans Saints have really not been themselves this season. Michael Thomas got surgery extremely late in the off-season, and then unsurprisingly missed the entire season due to experiencing a “set-back”, and Alvin Kamara has been in and out of the lineup for the majority of the season at this point. Regardless, stacking Taysom Hill with Kamara is one of my favorite builds at this point in the week. You can add one wideout, but our options of Tre’Quan Smith, Marquez Callaway, and Lil’Jordan Humphrey do not inspire much confidence whatsoever. The tight end options are arguably even more bleak, so I will likely be sticking to the Hill/Kamara one-two punch and hoping that the field avoids Kamara due to his injured status and potential lost red zone touches due to Hill. Elijah Moore is somewhat intriguing on the Jets side of the football, but I will likely be avoiding the Jets as I do every week, since that will very rarely come back to haunt us.

B. The situation in Tennessee really hinges very heavily on the potential return of Julio Jones as I mentioned above. If Jones does not return, we should likely pass on this Titans offense, but if he does suit up then a DraftKings price of $5.4K with no A.J. Brown or Derrick Henry is beyond enticing. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and Chester Rogers are potential options if Julio sits, but they essentially have little to no ceiling to help us win GPPs. I also would not be caught dead rostering a Jaguars player, as I took the cheap price on Laviska Shenault last week and was quickly reminded why his price is so low. $4.3K is honestly still too much for this guy in this offense, and I am not even sure I would have interest at $3K. Similar to the game above, this is really just a spot where I want to target the quarterback and top skill position player from one team and then leave the rest of this game on the table.

C. Last but not least, we finally have a game that we can stack up from both sides. I wrote up Dak Prescott, but you can also get cute and roster Taylor Heinicke on the other side for tournaments, as he will almost definitely come in at even lower ownership. I heard Ezekiel Elliott referred to as a “$90M pass blocker” earlier this week, and that is sad but true. Zeke has looked fat, out of shape, and downright horrendous at most points this season, and he is claiming he is injured as well but man even early in the season he looked awful. Pollard is clearly the more skilled back but he is still technically a backup that we would have to pay $6.4K for, so no thanks. The wide receivers are clearly where the money is on this team, and we can get plenty of exposure to CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper, and Michael Gallup on Sunday. Dalton Schultz is also a viable tight end option, and you can really load up two or three of these guys in one lineup and still feel comfortable with your potential upside given that Dallas has one of the highest implied team totals on the slate. Terry McLaurin is of course our default bring-back option and I love including him in lineups with my Dallas stack onslaughts.

That will do it for this week’s article. If I am not taking down the million this Sunday, then I hope that it is a member of our WDS fam! Please make sure to check out our projection model by clicking here, and if you have any questions about GPP strategy or the top stacks for the week, I will be in our expert chat in Discord leading up to Sunday afternoon. Feel free to shoot me a DM or @ me in chat! Lastly, do not forget to subscribe to the WinDaily YouTube channel and follow me on Twitter: @AThr0ughZ!