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Starting Rotation 7.19

Monday greets us with 11 games on the MLB slate and it’s not one that holds many attractive cheaper options. I apologize for no article yesterday but we are ready to rock tonight! The higher-end and midrange look pretty fascinating and my early lean is to stick in that midrange. Let’s talk about who’s slated to pitch in the Starting Rotation 7.19 and see if we can’t find another day of pitchers that lay the foundation for green screens!

Starting Rotation 7.19 – Main Targets

Yu Darvish

Darvish is sort of a mystery bag tonight. He’s coming off the IL, but I don’t think we’ll see a restricted pitch count. I’m not a big fan of seeing his spin rate down in the past four starts, but he has a ceiling game in that mix against the Dodgers with 11 strikeouts. He now gets an Atlanta offense that is without Ronald Acuna and Darvish has a 29.8% K rate on the year. I’m willing to not sweat the last start with the injury presenting after the fact.

What strikes me as odd with Darvish is the cutter is the one pitch he does use a lot at 39.6% but it’s easily the worst pitch results-wise. It’s yielding a .278 average and a .404 wOBA. That pitch and the four-seam have given up 10 of 12 home runs and every other pitch is under a .210 wOBA allowed. These two pitches making up over 57% of his repertoire present some issues and explains some uneven results. Atlanta does rate well against those pitches which does nag at me a bit. Still, the price is exceptionally low for a pitcher still generating a 12.8% swinging-strike rate. Both sides of the plate are under a .270 wOBA and righties whiff 32.4% of the time with a 3.44 xFIP.

Kevin Gausman

Dodgers Ranks vs Pitch Types – FB – 3rd SF – 5th

If you just took the matchup out of the equation, Gausman would likely be the best pitcher on the slate. Only Jacob deGrom has a lower ERA and Gausman has a 2.57 FIP to go with a 6.9% walk rate and a 30.5% K rate. Most see the Dodgers matchup and (smartly, in almost all cases) bailout and run the other way. I’m not saying I’ll be right but I’m actually excited for the opportunity tonight. Gausman started against these Dodgers three turns ago and scored a measly 7.9 DK points. It was a very poor start BUT I think it may not have been as bad as it looked.

Doing a deep dive inside that game, the xFIP was 8.37 and the FIP was 7.77. That doesn’t sound like anything to help my case but he threw 90 pitches, 41 for balls. That’s the highest amount he’s thrown in any start this year and his first strike rate was 54.2%, the third-worst of the year. The swinging-strike rate was only 7.8%, the worst of the season and it appears he just wasn’t throwing enough quality pitches in this start. He didn’t get hit hard with a 28.6% rate and just a .154 BABIP.

Only one hitter connected with a barrel and the five walks were the worst of the year. I get it, the Dodgers are second in walk rate at 11% but this is a super outlier with the rest of the season for Gausman. With LA coming out of Coors into Dodger Stadium, Gausman is SUPER interesting in GPP tonight. His splitter should be able to really do some heavy lifting against the Dodgers tonight after three games in Denver. The field likely stays away with the salary and game logs, which opens the door for him to be very low-rostered. Both sides of the plate are being held under a .250 wOBA. I’ll be fascinated to see his projected ownership.

Trevor Rogers

Nationals Ranks vs Pitch Types – FB – 7th CH – 11th SL – 10th

Typically, I would preach some caution here as the Nationals can be very tough on lefties and I stress this is still NOT an easy spot, but three of their top 10 hitters in wOBA against lefties are currently out. Washington is also seventh against the fastball, which is the money pitch for Rogers. He’s up to about 58% of the time with it and it’s the 11th rated fastball on FanGraphs with 77 strikeouts, a .291 wOBA, and a 29.1% whiff rate. That’ll play for sure and the splits favor Rogers as well. He’s handled righties so far with a .257 wOBA, 3.45 xFIP, and a 29.6% K rate.

Other than a bump in the road against Atlanta, Rogers has been very consistent, an attribute that always helps in DFS. His 14.9% swinging-strike rate would be a career high and I don’t dislike him, I just do prefer Darvish. If he’s coming in at a fraction of the Darvish ownership, let’s talk. My main fears are Juan Soto and Trea Turner, both of whom rank inside the top 20 against the fastball this season.

Shohei Ohtani

A’s Ranks vs Pitch Types – FB – 14th SF – 13th SL – 6th CT – 24th

My early guess would expect Ohtani to be among the three chalkiest pitchers, potentially with Darvish. The 3.49 ERA is more or less in line with a 3.66 xFIP and the 30.7% K rate is always going to be appealing. Oakland is 12th in walk rate at 9.2% and that can come into play because one of (if not THE) biggest weakness in Ohtani’s game on the mound is handing out walks. His 12.4% walk rate would lead the league if he qualified and that metric is equal to each side of the plate. The K rate takes a dip against lefties at 25.9% but righties are flirting with 37% and Ohtani should face five or more tonight. The A’s are only 19th in K rate at a 23.3% rate but Ohtani’s splitter is so nasty. It has a .118 wOBA, 53.3% whiff rate, and seven hits out of 198 total pitches. We know that Ohtani is always a little riskier than he might appear (see the Yankees start) but the ceiling is high for the salary.

Starting Rotation 7.19 Honorable Mention

Luis Garcia – I wonder if he becomes popular but the splits could bite him. Cleveland is slated to have 4-5 lefties in the lineup and Garcia has had some issues against that side of the plate. They’ve gotten him for a .336 wOBA, 4.00 xFIP, and a 24.5% K rate. Cleveland is sitting at a 23.4% K rate as a team and Garcia’s four-seam continues to hold him back. He’s using it almost 48% of the time and it has an 18.5% whiff rate along with a .369 wOBA. His other four pitches all sit over 36% in whiff rate (with three over 44%) and the change is the “worst” at a .289 wOBA. Cleveland is just 20th against the fastball, so I’m curious to see the lineup before making the final call.

Kyle Gibson – $9,000 just always feels expensive and we have Darvish, Rogers, and Ohtani all in that same price range. His K rate is vastly inferior to the other three at 21.7% and the Detroit offense isn’t the same style of punching bag they were for the first six weeks of the season. If I have exposure to those other three and Gibson outscores them all, I tip my hat and move on.

Ryan Yarbrough – I was very close to putting him on the main target list, but the K rate of 19.7% held me off. The Orioles only whiff at a 22.9% rate against lefties which is 11th but they are not good by any other metric. They are no higher than 24th in average, OBP, slugging, OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+. The price is just a touch too high for my liking since we have a condensed player pool right in the same tier. You’d have to hope for 6-7 strong innings to pay this off if his K rate stayed stagnant.

Starting Rotation 7.19 Primary Stack

I’ll let Brian have his fun with Lester Day but since I write first, I’m talking about Tampa Bay. You can usually bank on teams facing the Orioles to be an interesting stack and Tampa is no different. Here’s the thing that really pushes them over the top for me – it doesn’t appear the Baltimore starter can take advantage of the gaudy K rate the Rays have this season.

Spenser Watkins draws another start and he has a 14.6% K rate with a swinging-strike rate under 9%. His ERA through 10.1 IP is 1.74 but the FIP and xFIP are over 5.00. Tampa is 12th in OPS, seventh in ISO, 11th in wOBA, and sixth in wRC+ this season against righties. The Baltimore bullpen is 14th in K rate so the matchup doesn’t get a whole lot worse for Tampa if they knock out Watkins early.

Watkins is throwing his four-seam at least 47% to each side and it has a .429 wOBA, .250 ISO, and a terrifying 72.7% hard contact rate. The ground ball rate is only 27%. The Rays destroy fastballs and Austin Meadows is egregiously priced at $4,600. That’s just silly DK is just giving us Meadows at that salary and he’s the best FanGraphs fastball hitter on the Rays. Randy Arozarena, Brandon Lowe, Mike Zunino, and Kevin Kiermaier are all over a .220 ISO against that pitch and I will be making every effort to have Rays everywhere tonight.

Starting Rotation 7.19 Secondary Stacks

Marlins against Jon Lester
Astros against J.C. Mejia
Cubs against Jake Woodford
Mets against Vladimir Guiterrez
Reds against Jerad Eickhoff

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 7.19 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

4 years ago 0 comments

MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for April 13

Peter dremonas 4 years ago

written by Peter dremonas

We have a pretty robust MLB DFS slate for Tuesday, April 13th. However, some games aren’t embedded in the key FanDuel slates for the day.

While there’s a 2:10pm game in Minnesota between the Twins and Red Sox, the game is completely ignored by FanDuel for MLB DFS. And the Phillies and Mets double-header was punted by FanDuel as well, likely because of the uncertainty the two games would bring to all of the slates.

So, that leaves us with a brief two-game Early Only slate which I’m going to avoid, but still a fairly robust ten game slate this evening (for some reason the game in Baltimore is also left off the slate). That’s where we’re going to focus all of our plays.

Be sure to check out our MLB DFS Projections as well. Without further ado, it’s Aces and Bases time.

Here’s a look at the schedule for this slate as well as the current pitching match-ups:

Away	Home	TIME (ET)	PITCHING MATCHUP	FanDuel Slate
~~Boston~~	~~Minnesota~~	~~2:10 PM~~	~~Martin Perez vs J.A. Happ~~	~~NOT SLATED~~
~~Oakland~~	~~Arizona~~	~~3:40 PM~~	~~Jesus Luzardo vs Zac Gallen~~	~~Early Only~~
~~Philadelphia~~	~~New York~~	~~4:10 PM~~	~~Chase Anderson vs Taijuan Walker~~	~~NOT SLATED~~
~~San Diego~~	~~Pittsburgh~~	~~6:35 PM~~	~~Blake Snell vs Chad Kuhl~~	~~Early Only~~
~~Seattle~~	~~Baltimore~~	~~7:05 PM~~	~~Nick Margevicius vs John Means~~	~~NOT SLATED~~
New York	Toronto	7:07 PM	Jameson Taillon vs Hyun Jin Ryu	MAIN
~~Philadelphia~~	~~New York~~	~~7:10 PM~~	~~Aaron Nola vs Marcus Stroman~~	~~NOT SLATED~~
Texas	Tampa Bay	7:10 PM	Kyle Gibson vs Ryan Yarbrough	MAIN
Miami	Atlanta	7:20 PM	Pablo Lopez vs Max Fried	MAIN
Chicago	Milwaukee	7:40 PM	Kyle Hendricks vs Brandon Woodruff	MAIN
Washington	St. Louis	7:45 PM	Stephen Strasburg vs Jack Flaherty	MAIN
Los Angeles	Kansas City	8:10 PM	Dylan Bundy vs Danny Duffy	MAIN
Cleveland	Chicago	8:10 PM	Shane Bieber vs Lucas Giolito	MAIN
Detroit	Houston	8:10 PM	Matthew Boyd vs Jake Odorizzi	MAIN
Cincinnati	San Francisco	9:45 PM	Luis Castillo vs Kevin Gausman	MAIN
Colorado	Los Angeles	10:10 PM	Antonio Senzatela vs Trevor Bauer	MAIN

MLB DFS: The Aces – MAIN

MAIN Best Value: Ryan Yarbrough vs TEX ($6,200 FD)

This slate is actually chalk full of solid value plays. We have decent low-run, low xFIP, pitchers starting on the mound against poor-hitting high K-rate volume lineups, and with a cheap salary.

Speaking of high K-rates, Texas currently has a 30.8% strikeout rate, the third highest in baseball. The Rangers walk rate is also a low 8%, and their wRC+ recently nose-dived to 87, below league average, after a hot start.

After giving up six earned runs in five innings against the Red Sox, in Boston, Yarbrough may not stick out to a lot of MLB DFS players. But, pitching against the BoSox, in Boston, is very difficult.

This isn’t the same situation. We’re more likely to see the 5.2, four hit, no walks or ER’s, and three strikeouts that Ryan put up against the Marlins in his first start.

Likely, we’ll get better than that. For under $7K, you’re getting a very good shot at over 30 FanDuel points at the SP position. No other pitcher in this slate offers that type of value.

However, Fried and Odorizzi get darn close!

Honorable Mention: Max Fried vs MIA ($7,600 FD) / Jake Odorizzi vs DET ($6,700 FD)

MAIN Top Ace: Trevor Bauer vs COL ($11,000 FD)

Hopefully MLB didn’t confiscate ALL of Bauer mysterious baseball!

That odd issue aside, Bauer is one of the top arms in this slate, fanning 12 in each of his first two starts. The Rockies aren’t in Denver for this one, so I’m pretty confident Bauer will have a low earned run win in this game, but I’m not sure he’ll hit the 12 K celing.

Still, a quality start is a decent bet and we should at least get over 40 FanDuel points with this play.

Bieber and/or Giolito are a close 2nd/3rd behind Bauer, which pitching duel lined up for Chicago this evening.

Honorable Mention: Shane Bieber vs CWS ($11,200 FD) / Lucas Giolito vs CLE ($9,800 FD)

MAIN Punt Play: None

For the first time this season, I don’t see a solid punt play in a slate. We have our top arms, we have some fantastic value, and there are some decent plays, like Woodruff.

Honorable Mentions: None

MAIN Top Fade: Danny Duffy vs LAA ($7,900 FD)

I realize Duffy had a great first outing against the Indians, in Cleveland, last week. He fanned five, walked two, and only gave up two hits with no earned runs and earned a quality start. Fine start.

But, Duffy is facing an Angels lineup on FIRE right now, currently with a 119 wRC+, fourth best in baseball right now. For nearly $8K, you could get really ripped off with this play.

Honorable Mention: Antonio Sanzatela @ LAD ($6,500)

MLB DFS: The Bases – MAIN

OK, to give FanDuel some credit, the 2pm game in Minnesota does seem like it’s worth fading. There is a very solid chance for storms during that game, cancelling on postpointing the game.

However, that game aside, the weather looks surprisingly clear for a mid-April slate. Take it and run with it!

Top Stacks – MAIN

Los Angeles Dodgers – With the Red Sox out of the Main slate and the Dodgers racking up a 144 wRC+, by far the highest offensive production in this slate, they’re also by far the best stack against the weakest starting pitching, oh and in their home ballpark. But, they’re expensive!

Value Stacks – MAIN

Tampa Rays – I’m OK with stacking the Dodgers, especially if I have Yarbrough as my SP. But the Rays make it comfortably easy to do in this slate. You can find plenty of 4x value in guys like Brandon Lowe ($2,700 FD), Yandy Díaz ($2,600 FD), Yoshi Tsutsugo ($2,400), and Austin Meadows ($3,200 FD).

MLB DFS April 13th 2021 Summary

With the Red Sox off the board, the Dodgers are easily the best offensive stack. They’ll be chalky, but it’s going to be hard to win cash games without them in your lineup.

They’re also expensive, but Yarbrough as your SP and/or the Rays as your value stack, should be a high-value productive way to plug in as many Dodgers as you.

You can also go with Giolito or Bieber, Lucas being the lower of the two, if you’re looking for lower ownership at the SP spot. But Bauer is likely your top MLB DFS arm of the slate, he’s just going to be additional Dodgers chalk.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter @MattyMcMatty17 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate.

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for April 8

Peter dremonas 4 years ago

written by Peter dremonas

For this week’s Thursday Aces and Bases MLB DFS plays, we’re going to focus solely on the MAIN slate. At the time of writing this post, FanDuel hasn’t created a slate for this evening’s games, except for applying them into the ~~All Day~~ slate.

I am not a fan of playing All Day slates with many games starting in the early afternoon and some following later in the evening. You often get yourself cornered into flipping lineup plays because of evolving lineups throughout the longer day.

Instead, I recommend using these plays for the Main slate, Express, and Late slates covering games starting at 1:10pm ET through 4:10pm ET.

Be sure to check out our MLB DFS Projections as well. Without further ado, it’s Aces and Bases time.

Here’s a look at the schedule for this slate as well as the current pitching match-ups:

Away	Home	TIME (ET)	PITCHING MATCHUP	FanDuel Slate
Miami	New York	1:10 PM	Undecided vs Taijuan Walker	MAIN / All Day
Chicago	Pittsburgh	1:35 PM	Jake Arrieta vs Tyler Anderson	MAIN / All Day
Boston	Baltimore	3:05 PM	Eduardo Rodríguez vs Matt Harvey	MAIN / All Day / Express
Arizona	Colorado	3:10 PM	Merrill Kelly vs Jon Gray	MAIN / All Day / *Express*
Kansas City	Chicago	4:10 PM	Brad Keller vs Lance Lynn	MAIN / All Day / Late
Seattle	Minnesota	4:10 PM	Marco Gonzales vs Jose Berrios	MAIN / All Day / Late
Milwaukee	St. Louis	4:15 PM	Corbin Burnes vs Adam Wainwright	MAIN / All Day / Late
~~Los Angeles~~	~~Toronto~~	~~7:07 PM~~	~~Griffin Canning vs Ross Stripling~~	~~All Day ONLY~~
~~Oakland~~	~~Houston~~	~~8:10 PM~~	~~Cole Irvin vs Cristian Javier~~	~~All Day ONLY~~

MLB DFS: The Aces – MAIN

MAIN Best Value: Lance Lynn vs KC ($8,900 FD)

Top value and top Ace are debatable for this slate. Lynn gave up six hits and two walks in his first start of the season, facing a tough Angels lineup. Still, he was able to keep earned runs at zero, through 4.2 innings, and quickly piled up six strikeouts.

While the Royals had a quick hot start, they’re lineup is likely to continue to cool off, and they currently have a 27.7% K-rate against RHP’s like Lynn.

For just under $9K, this is one of your top two best shots at 30 to 40 FanDuel points at the SP position, and there’s a higher ceiling if Lynn and build a quality start.

Honorable Mention: None

MAIN Top Ace: Jose Berrios vs SEA ($9,600 FD)

I was high on Berrios for his first start against the Brewers, and he exceeded expectations no-hitting a perfect six innings piling up 12 K’s and winning a quality start for 64 FanDuel DFS MLB points.

Look, maybe he can’t replicate the same perfection against the Mariners, but the Brewers lineup is solid and in some ways comparable to the Mariners.

Also, the M’s have a 27.6% K-rate, so we can expect Berrios to march his K’s up toward the double-digits again, giving us a very solid shot at 40+ points. He’s a bit more expensive than Lynn, but the upside is more likely and therefore worth the salary.

Honorable Mention: Corbin Burnes @ STL ($9,400 FD)

MAIN Punt Play: Matt Harvey vs BOS ($6,500 FD)

I generally like to stay away from the Dark Knight since his massive drop-off over the last couple of seasons. However, I have a cousin who helped train Harvey in NJ over the winter break and the buzz is Harvey appears to be ‘fixing’ some of his issues.

Time will tell if that’s true, but his first 4.2 innings of the season against a very good Red Sox lineup was a good start.

He gave up six hits and one walk, but only two earned runs, and fanned four hitters. For $6.5K, you’re getting another decent shot at 20+ points against a good lineup, so likely low ownership.

If you’re looking for a decent punt play at the SP position, this is likely the best one.

Honorable Mentions: None

MAIN Top Fade: Eduardo Rodriguez @ BAL ($8,200 FD)

I generally like Rodriquez because the hard-throwing hurler has high K-rate upside. However, Eduardo sometimes has control issues and is coming off the injured list for this start.

The BoSox claim Rodriquez has no innings limit, but I don’t think they truly know that until they see how he handles the first two innings.

There’s just entirely too much risk with this play, to spend THAT much money at the SP position.

Honorable Mention: Jake Arrieta @ CHC ($8,500 FD)

MLB DFS: The Bases – MAIN

Chicago and St. Louis have the biggest weather-related risks of this slate. There’s a decent probability that the White Sox and Cardinals hosted games could at least see some rain showers, but may include some thunderstorms.

At worse, they seem like mostly just delay related. But, be prepared to have to flip some Royals, White Sox, Brewers, and Cardinals as we get better weather-related updates toward game-time.

Top Stacks – MAIN

Minnesota Twins – With a 115 wRC+ and .343 BABIP, the Twins offensive lineup has been a top five play so far this season. The Mariners lefty Marco Gonzales is on the mound, and the Twins have plenty of righties to stack against the struggling southpaw.
Boston Red Sox – I realize I recommended Harvey as a solid punt play, but even if Matt has a good outing, the Red Sox are likely to get some solid production off the O’s bullpen. They’re just too good of an offensive lineup to pass on stacking.

Value Stacks – MAIN

Pittsburgh Pirates – Look, I’m not high on Jake Arrieta in this slate, but that’s not why I like the Pirates. Also, I realize Pittsburgh’s lineup isn’t the most formidable, but they should get at least four runs across the plate today. And their top five in the lineup are DIRT CHEAP.

MLB DFS April 8th 2021 Summary

We have nine games throughout the day today, two starting around 1pm ET and two more starting later in the evening, 7 and 8pm ET. The other five games, the bulk of the slate, start between 3 and 4pm ET.

So, the most attractive slates to play are the Main, Express, and Late games eliminating the 7/8pm games, with the exception of the All Day slate. I’m ignoring the All Day slate, as there’s too much lineup risk, and focusing solely on the Main slate, and using these recommendations for the Express and Late slates as well.

Berrios and Lynn are the top pitchers we’re focused on, with Harvey as a potential punt play. Burnes is also worth a solid consideration at the SP position.

For stacks, the Twins and Red Sox should pile up the most runs in this slate, and the Pirates make them easily affordable.

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for April 6

Peter dremonas 4 years ago

written by Peter dremonas

For this Tuesday’s Aces and Bases MLB DFS plays, we’re going to look at both the Early Only and MAIN FanDuel slate options. The Early Only slate has ten teams to pick through, which is plenty, and the Main slate is loaded as well.

On split-slate days like today, I tend to play both big slates for MLB DFS as you have plenty of GPP and Cash options.

We’ll take a look at the MLB schedule, ignore the 1PM ET game, and lay out your top values and plays for SP’s in the Early Only and MAIN slate, as well as top hitting stacks.

Be sure to check out our MLB DFS Projections as well. Without further ado, it’s Aces and Bases time.

Here’s a look at the schedule for this slate as well as the current pitching match-ups:

Away	Home	TIME (ET)	PITCHING MATCHUP	FanDuel Slate
~~Minnesota~~	~~Detroit~~	~~1:10 PM~~	~~J.A. Happ vs Casey Mize~~	~~All Day~~
Atlanta	Washington	4:05 PM	Drew Smyly vs Max Scherzer	*Early Only*
Houston	Los Angeles	4:07 PM	Zack Greinke vs Griffin Canning	*Early Only*
Baltimore	New York	6:35 PM	Dean Kremer vs Gerrit Cole	*Early Only*
Pittsburgh	Cincinnati	6:40 PM	Trevor Cahill vs Wade Miley	*Early Only*
St. Louis	Miami	6:40 PM	John Gant vs Sandy Alcantara	*Early Only*
New York	Philadelphia	7:05 PM	Marcus Stroman vs Chase Anderson	MAIN
Tampa Bay	Boston	7:10 PM	Tyler Glasnow vs Martin Perez	MAIN
Milwaukee	Chicago	7:40 PM	Freddy Peralta vs Adbert Alzolay	MAIN
Toronto	Texas	8:05 PM	Tanner Roark vs Dane Dunning	MAIN
Arizona	Colorado	8:40 PM	Luke Weaver vs German Marquez	MAIN
Los Angeles	Oakland	9:40 PM	Clayton Kershaw vs Chris Bassitt	MAIN
Chicago	Seattle	10:10 PM	Lucas Giolito vs James Paxton	MAIN
San Francisco	San Diego	10:10 PM	Aaron Sanchez vs Yu Darvish	MAIN

MLB DFS: The Aces – Early Only

Early Only Best Value: Zack Greinke @ LAA ($9,300 FD)

I understand this play may seem a bit risky and expensive, on the surface, but that’s exactly why it’s a good value. Greinke has the third best career xFIP, 3.51, of the Early Only SP’s, only behind Cole and Scherzer. He’s one of the best options you have in this slate.

The Angels do have some big bats, but 0.91 HR/9 innings is one of the lowest in this slate and the Halos are fanning at around a 26% K-rate against RHP’s like Zack.

Cole and Scherzer are also going to lower Greinke’s ownership, making Zack a fully rounded value play for Early Only SP’s.

Honorable Mention: Dylan Bundy vs HOU

Early Only Top Ace(s): Gerrit Cole vs BAL ($11,000 FD) / Max Scherzer vs ATL ($10,500 FD)

I’m a little hesitant to go with Max after the Nats had to consistently postpone his start numerous times. Delaying a starting pitcher can be detrimental to their pitching performance.

But, the Nats basically just pushed Scherzer’s start out a week, sort of keeping him within his consistent rotation. Also, Max has a nearly 30% K-rate, the highest career K-rate of this group. He’s also a bit cheaper than Cole. He’s absolutely worth a Top Ace play.

The Orioles are fanning at a nearly 27% K-rate against RHP’s like Cole. Gerrit is pitching at the top of his career level. This is a no-brainer pick. The only problem is the value. Cole really limits your offensive weapons.

Honorable Mention: None, although I’d put Greinke in this category as well.

Early Only Punt Play: Wade Miley vs PIT ($6,200 FD)

Miley is debatably an MLB DFS value play for FanDuel in the Early Only slate. You do have a pretty solid shot of getting three to five K’s from Miley, who’s Reds are hosting the Pirates early this evening.

Asking for a quality start point bump may be too much to ask, but he could also squeeze out the win, making him a 15 to 25 FD point play for a darn cheap salary.

Regardless, Miley’s salary allows you to absolutely load up on heavy hitters.

Honorable Mentions: None

Early Only Top Fade: Dean Kremer @ NYY ($6,500)

Kremer is a young pitching prospect for the Orioles, so this pick is intriguing. But you’re better off picking Miley at this salary range, and the Yankees bats could make you REALLY regret picking Kremer.

Honorable Mention: John Gant @ MIA

MLB DFS: The Bases – Early Only

The good news with the weather forecast for Tuesday is that the Early Only slate appears to be mostly clear. There shouldn’t been too many weather-related stats inflation either.

Top Stacks – Early Only

New York Yankees – Kremer could surprise us, although with the Yankees ownership fairly high in this slate, that may not hurt you too much with this stack. The upside is worth it, but they’re expensive because they’re obviously very popular.

Value Stacks – Early Only

Miami Marlins – The Marlins don’t have the sexist lineup, and there is some risk with his play because the Cardinals could go with a slew of RP’s during this game, and we don’t know what we’re going to get. But, Gant’s 4.40 ERA and 1.33 WHIP has me hopeful for a good start.

MLB DFS: The Aces – MAIN

MAIN Best Value: Freddy Peralta @ CHC ($6,400 FD)

Look, you have at least five other pitchers who will likely yield more MLB DFS points for you like, Darvish (see Top Aces), Kershaw, Giolito, Glasnow, and Paxton.

But, Peralta fanned six hitters in just two innings in his first outing. I don’t know if Freddy will be on the mound for more than a few innings, but his K-rate is high enough to get you over 20 FanDuel point for a dirt-cheap salary.

It’s hard to argue that type of value in this slate.

Honorable Mention: None

MAIN Top Ace(s): Yu Darvish vs SF ($10,200 FD)

I realize there are a lot of good arms in this slate and that should hopefully flatten SP ownership a bit. But, Darvish is an obvious slam-dunk pick here.

SF’s hitters are currently fanning at over a 36% K-rate against RHP’s this season, the worst (or highest) rate in baseball right now. While Darvish gave up eight hits and four ER’s against the DBacks in his first outing, he also fanned six in 4.1 innings.

Even with another bad outing, Yu likely gives you 20 to 30 points. But, the Giants offense is currently worse than the Diamondbacks across all advanced metrics, so it’s possible we get 40 to 60 points with a quality start and win from Darvish in this slate.

Honorable Mention: Clayton Kershaw @ OAK ($9,000 FD)

MAIN Punt Play: Tanner Roark @ TEX ($6,100 FD)

I’m trying hard to avoid a punt play in this slate because there are so many solid value options, but if you REALLY want a huge chunk of salary for big bats and want to take a shot at a low-owned SP with some potential upside, that’s Roark.

The risk is big though. The Rangers bats are hot right now and they’re still comfortably at home in Texas. Roark could get CRUSHED, but he could also give you a surprise 20 to 30 points with a good outing against a Rangers offense that should ultimately hit a wall.

Honorable Mentions: None

MAIN Top Fade: Luke Weaver @ COL ($5,700 FD)

Weaver has a very high ERA, WHIP, and xFIP and is pitching in a very hitter-friendly Coors Field. Avoid Weaver at all costs, unless you want to do some insanely high-risk GPP play.

Honorable Mention: Aaron Sanchez @ SD

MLB DFS: The Bases – MAIN

The only game with weather-related risk is the D-Back and Rockies in Denver, CO. There’s a solid chance for storms and rain throughout the evening, making a Rockies or D-Backs stack risky.

That game, aside, we’re clear!

Top Stacks – MAIN

Los Angeles Dodgers – Bassitt is a solid pitcher, but he’s facing one of the most efficient bats in baseball so far this season. He’s likely going to allow five to eight on base before he’s yanked in the fourth or fifth inning. They’re expensive, but worth it.
San Diego Padres – Last week these guys were one of my value stacks. Since then, they’ve hit a lot of home runs and inflated many offensive lineups and are now expensive. But, still a top stack against Aaron Sanchez.

Value Stacks – MAIN

Tampa Rays – This could be a sneaky play. The Rays aren’t crushing the ball so far this season, only scoring four runs per game. BUT, they’re facing a vulnerable Martin Perez in Boston today and are dirt-cheap across the lineup, even in the heart of the lineup.

MLB DFS April 6th 2021 Summary

In both the Early Only and MAIN FanDuel MLB DFS slates for Tuesday, April 6th, we have solid top Aces with targeted value plays at SP as well.

For the Early Only slate, our focus is pretty narrow, and I’d stick with what I’ve recommended. However, for the MAIN slate, you have more options to play around with several lineups. This makes the MAIN slate a more attractive GPP play, and the Early Only a better Cash option.

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Opening Day 2021

Peter dremonas 4 years ago

written by Peter dremonas

Baseball is finally BACK on Thursday, April 1st, Opening Day 2021 and there’s a pretty full MLB DFS FanDuel slate for us attack tournament and cash games.

For this Aces and Bases article, we’re focused ONLY on FanDuel and specifically for the loaded Opening Day slate, starting at 1:05PM ET. With eleven games crammed into roughly seven to eight hours (ending with the 4pm ET games) on Thursday afternoon/evening, we have plenty of options for all formats.

However, it’s spring and the weather is often turbulent this time of year. So, please make sure you keep an eye on the weather and other factors as those are always important things to monitor when playing MLB DFS.

Be sure to check out our MLB DFS Projections as well. Without further ado, it’s Aces and Bases time.

Here’s a look at the schedule for this slate as well as the current pitching match-ups:

Away	Home	TIME (ET)	PITCHING MATCHUP
Toronto	New York	1:05 PM	Hyun-Jin Ryu vs Gerrit Cole
Cleveland	Detroit	1:10 PM	Shane Bieber vs Matthew Boyd
Baltimore	Boston	2:10 PM	John Means vs Nathan Eovaldi
Minnesota	Milwaukee	2:10 PM	Kenta Maeda vs Brandon Woodruff
Pittsburgh	Chicago	2:20 PM	Chad Kuhl vs Kyle Hendricks
Atlanta	Philadelphia	3:05 PM	Max Fried vs Aaron Nola
Arizona	San Diego	4:10 PM	Madison Bumgarner vs Yu Darvish
Los Angeles	Colorado	4:10 PM	Clayton Kershaw vs German Marquez
St. Louis	Cincinnati	4:10 PM	Jack Flaherty vs Luis Castillo
Tampa Bay	Miami	4:10 PM	Tyler Glasnow vs Sandy Alcantara
Texas	Kansas City	4:10 PM	Kyle Gibson vs Brad Keller

MLB DFS: The Aces

Best Value: Luis Castillo vs. STL ($8,900 FD)

Castillo is a hard-throwing pitcher with a lot of heat. Those of you who have played a lot of MLB DFS know Castillo has a high ceiling due to his high 25%+ K-rate through most of his career.

Luis’ career K-rate against the Cardinals is 24.3%, or 8.8 per 9 innings, and he’s maintained a low 3.80 xFIP against the Cards. While he’s given up 1.5 home runs per nine against the Cards throughout his career, he didn’t give up any through nine last season.

There are a lot of great pitchers on the mound opening day, a few may pile up more points than Castillo, but he’s likely going to be in the top five, for a very reasonable FanDuel Salary.

Honorable Mentions: Jack Flaherty @ CIN

Top Ace(s): Tyler Glasnow @MIA ($10,000 FD) / Yu Darvish vs ARI ($10,700 FD)

We’re looking at nearly identical pitching career stats with equally solid match-ups for this MLB DFS Opening Day slate.

Glasnow has a 28.5% K-rate throughout his career, while Darvish has a 29.9% rate. They’re both averaging around 11 K’s/9-innings and have career xFIP’s well below four.

Neither give up a lot of long-balls, and you’d have to give Darvish the nudge if you’re trying to avoid walks. But you do pay more of a premium for less risk.

Looking at total points per salary, I’d lean a little harder toward Glasnow, but Darvish is an equally dominate option at this price-point.

Honorable Mention: Clayton Kershaw @ COL

Punt Play: Kyle Gibson @ KC ($6,900 FD)

Gibson is generally a risky play mostly against better hitting teams than the Royals. That’s what makes this punt play more appealing. The risk, though, is his incredible inconsistency.

Kyle piled up 13 K’s over two quality starts against the Astros late last season. He also fanned eight hitters over five innings against the Dodgers. So, there’s some pretty incredible upside with this play.

But, I’d bank on a solid 20 to 30 FanDuel point play and use the salary savings on some heavy hitters.

Honorable Mentions: Chad Kuhl @ CHC

Top Fade: Madison Bumgarner @ SD ($7,700 FD)

Why MadBum? Well, you’re getting a pitcher struggling toward what appears to be the decline of his career facing one of the most prolific rising lineups in baseball, in their own park. Hard. Pass.

Honorable Mention: John Means @ BOS

MLB DFS: The Bases

The good news with the weather forecast for Opening Day is that there appear to be now rain, snow, or storm risks. The bad news is that some of the games in the North and East are going to be quite cold.

Still, we can mostly factor weather risk out of this slate.

Top Stacks

Los Angeles Dodgers – The Dodgers are playing in Coors field, the end. OK, OK…fine. The Dodgers have one of the best lineups in baseball, with smashers like Corey Seager ($4,500 FD), Cody Bellinger ($4,600 FD), and Mookie Betts ($4,800) in their lineup. They’re playing in one of the most hitter friendly parks in baseball. Is that better?

Value Stacks

San Diego Padres – How could a lineup getting tons of fantasy baseball attention like the Padres be a value play? Well, Josh Rojas ($2,000 FD), Will Myers ($2,900 FD), Tommy Pham ($3,000), and Eric Hosmer ($3,400 FD) make getting double-digit point plays per position pretty easy to do in this MLB DFS slate.

MLB DFS Opening Day 2021 Summary

Glasnow or Darvish are likely your top ACES for this slate, but Castillo is you’re overall best value. You should also consider Gibson if you’re in need of a punt play and want to load up on bashers like the Dodgers in Coors Field.

The Padres have some bashers as well, and a great hitting to pitcher match-up for this MLB DFS slate on Opening Day. But, the Padres also have some of the best FanDuel value plays of the slate as well.

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Mini slate Monday, Aces and Bases for 8.24

scotthouston1971@yahoo.com 5 years ago

written by scotthouston1971@yahoo.com

Hopefully, you all were on the Discord last night to catch all of our discussions that lead to a very nice night of cashing! Let’s run it back today. The August 24th edition of Aces and Bases will take on the main MLB DFS slates on DraftKings and FanDuel.

The purpose of this article is to identify our top pitching plays and fades on the slate, in addition to our top offense stacks for your GPP lineups.

Please make sure you keep an eye on the weather and other factors as those are always important things to monitor when playing MLB DFS. Be sure to check out our MLB DFS Projections as well. Without further ado, it’s Aces and Bases time.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Best Value: Jesus Luzardo @TEX ($7,400 DK / $7,700 FD)

Luzardo is really coming into his own and has been doing some great things with his slider (44% whiff rate) and changeup (53% whiff rate), hes also fully stretched out finally going about 90 pitches last outing. I wish Luzardo would pound more 4 seamers and less Sinkers, but the tunneling has done a good job so far.

The Rangers are terrible at getting on base, they have been taking weak at bats a lot this year and come into today’s game with a team slash line of .210/.288/.345.

Honorable Mentions: Lance Lynn

Top Ace(s): Trevor Bauer @MIL ($10,200 DK / $12,000 FD) Kenta Maeda @CLE ($9,400 / $9,400 FD)

Bauer has been dominant this year, over 26.1 IP he’s rocking a 14 k/9 and a .068 ERA! The Brewers bats have been struggling so hard to find run production this year and I’ve been playing any pitcher I can against them.

Maeda took a no-no into the 9th last week! Almost had it. Maeda has been locked in this year and his statcast page is lit up with red to back it all up. Facing off vs a weak Cleveland team here (.208 team BA) I am surprised this price is not higher.

Civale has been awesome this year, I love his approach and the fastball command is just so tasty, he would be a top Ace if not for the great match ups Bauer and Maeda have today

Honorable Mention: Aaron Civale vs MIN

Punt Play: Brad Keller @ STL ($6,700 DK / $8,900 FD)

Keller has incorporated a new curveball to his arsenal and boy has it been good. Keller’s new breaker has been getting a ton of called strikes and whiffs has hes kept it in and around the bottom of the zone. The fastball tunneling has been spot on as well and he keeps all the 4 seamers up.

Honorable Mentions: Casey Mize vs CHC

Top Fade: Jack Flaherty vs KC ($9,300 DK / ( $10,000 FD)

Flaherty looked good in his first outing back but got the hook after only 41 pitches. Flaherty is not fully stretched, and loaded the bases on two walks and then a plunk, which was a bit concerning. So were looking at like a 5 inning ceiling here. Price is just too high with that production cap, even against the Royals. There is a good chance Flaherty will be a top ace next week against the Pirates if everything goes smoothly here.

Honorable Mention: Alec Mills @ DET

MLB DFS: The Bases

No real weather concerns across the board today with a near with the small slate to start the week. With these small slates I really like to focus in on a couple stacks.

Top Stacks

Houston Astros- The Astros are 0-8 against teams over .500 this year. Luckily for Astros though, the Angels are 9-20 and are rolling out Patrick Sandoval. Sandoval could not keep the breakers in the bottom part of the zone and was punished in his last outing. The Astros should feast tonight.

Value Stacks

Detroit Tigers – The Tigers have been barreling the ball really well so far this year and are actually leading the league in hard hit % at 42.4%. Alec Mills got toasted his last time on the bump and had nothing working, have to attack him until he gives a reason not to.

Thrive Fantasy

Using the information above, you can even make some money on Thrive Fantasy! As I said I like and Astros stack and Trevor Bauer tonight, and you can grab the OVER on Bauer’s K Prop of 8.5, and Springer to go OVER 0.5 Runs + RBI. Check them out and use promo code “windaily” when you sign up for some extra bonuses. Learn how to play here on our quick over.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter @TimmySigs and be sure to sign up for a ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.

5 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Teeming Thursday, Aces and Bases for 8.20

scotthouston1971@yahoo.com 5 years ago

written by scotthouston1971@yahoo.com

Hopefully, you all were on the Discord last night to catch all of our discussions that lead to a very nice night of cashing! Let’s run it back today. The August 20th edition of Aces and Bases will take on the main MLB DFS slates on DraftKings and FanDuel.

The purpose of this article is to identify our top pitching plays and fades on the slate, in addition to our top offense stacks for your GPP lineups.

Please make sure you keep an eye on the weather and other factors as those are always important things to monitor when playing MLB DFS. Be sure to check out our MLB DFS Projections as well. Without further ado, it’s Aces and Bases time.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Best Value: Kevin Gausman ($6,500 DK / $7,700 FD)

Man this is some good value. Gausman is absolutely locked in with the splitter this year, allowing no more than 3 earned in any start, and the strikeouts are just pouring in (32 K%) as he pounds the upper half of the zone with fastballs (sitting 96!) and splitters underneath.

Gausman gave us 11ks vs Oakland in his last go on the bump and today’s Angels match up will be the best one hes had all year (LADx2 / SDP/ @COL).

Honorable Mentions: Dinelson Lamet

Top Ace(s): Shane Bieber ($10,600 DK / $12,000 FD) Clayton Kershaw ($10,200 / $10,100 FD)

Bieber at $12k on Fan Duel might be the highest price for a pitcher yet this year. Last years breakout start continues to impress everyone though as he mows down offenses. Can’t imagine the Pirates give much a challenge here as Bieber has generated 54 strikeouts already this year.

Kershaw is Kershaw. He is great and its great to see him do good and have that fastball sitting at 92mph and up, although the command looked a bit shaky on the heater, the slider is still doing its thing.

Honorable Mention: Jose Berrios / Sonny Gray

Punt Play: Yusei Kikuchi ($5,700 DK / $6,500 FD)

Everybody loves to talk about increased velocity, myself included. Kikuchi is the latest velocity darling, and while it hasn’t panned out just yet the expected stats are telling us greener pastures are ahead. The Dodgers are a tough lineup to try and get right in front of but Kikuchi’s baseball savant page is littered with red. Here’s hoping we see some improvements today.

Honorable Mentions: Asher Wojciechowski

Top Fade: Brandon Woodruff ($8,500 DK / ( $8,200 FD)

This is a no brainier, the options are bountiful today so why would anyone single out the guy throwing against the Twins. All the plays above Woodruff seem pretty solid so its easy to stick with them and find some value low on the board.

Honorable Mention: Adam Wainwright

MLB DFS: The Bases

No weather concerns across the board today with a near full slate.

Top Stacks

Oakland Athletics – The A’s should find themselves into the bullpen early as Alex Young is not fully stretched out yet. Young looked alright during his last outing but this A’s team just has no quit right now.

Value Stacks

San Francisco Giants – The Giants get to face off against Jose Suarez of the Angels today. Its the season debut for Suarez as he missed all of summer camp with an undisclosed injury. Through 18 starts last year Suarez got knocked around a bunch and ended the year with a ERA north of 7.
Baltimore Orioles – The ball loves to fly out in the summer in Baltimore, and Eovaldi loves to get beat up by the long ball.

Thrive Fantasy

Using the information above, you can even make some money on Thrive Fantasy! As I said I like Kershaw and you can grab the over on his K Prop of 5.5. Check them out and use promo code “windaily” when you sign up for some extra bonuses. Learn how to play here on our quick over.

5 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Taut Thursday, Aces and Bases for 8.13

scotthouston1971@yahoo.com 5 years ago

written by scotthouston1971@yahoo.com

Hopefully, you all were on the Discord last night to catch all of our discussions that lead to a very nice night of cashing! Let’s run it back today. The August 13th edition of Aces and Bases will take on the main MLB DFS slates on DraftKings and FanDuel.

The purpose of this article is to identify our top pitching plays and fades on the slate, in addition to our top offense stacks for your GPP lineups.

Please make sure you keep an eye on the weather and other factors as those are always important things to monitor when playing MLB DFS. Be sure to check out our MLB DFS Projections as well. Without further ado, it’s Aces and Bases time.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Best Value: Anthony DeSclafani ($8,200 DK / $7,100 FD)

DeSclafani’s slider was marvelous vs the Brewers. I have been rolling pitchers out a lot against the Brewers this year because of their noted struggles to hit balls thrown in the zone right now, DeSclanfani took advantage of that and went slider heavy with some sinkers and curveballs mixed in as well, which produced some good whiffs, and 6 Ks over 6 scoreless innings.

Ideally I would like to see more 4 seamers up and less sinkers, but I’m very comfortable rolling DeSclafani out for this price against Pittsburgh

Honorable Mentions: Nobody

Top Ace(s): Yu Darvish ($10,300 DK / $9,600 FD)

Speaking of the Brewers who love to swing and miss, Yu Darvish will get to face them at home today. Darvish leaned on the curveball more last time we saw him throw and I hope he does more of the same, keeping the fastball, sitting at 95mph, up in the zone.

Against this current Brewers roster, Darvish has generated 36Ks (30%) and a just a .201 BA against, with the underlying stats to back it up.

About Glasnow, he should be stretched out to about 80 pitches today, that sounds nice but the curveball just was not there last time out against the Yankees. Leaning on the fastball more the Yanks were able to really get after him, with just too many fastballs low in the zone. This one feels like a coin flip.

Honorable Mention: Tyler Glasnow

Punt Play: Jake Arrieta ($7,300 DK / $8,300 FD)

Man. Arrieta sure looked like his old self against the Braves last week. Sinkers were thrown all over the zone as Arrieta tamed Atlanta to 6 scoreless innings and 6 Ks backing that up.

While I doubt Arrieta is magically his Cy Young self again, were getting a great price to face an over performing Orioles team. Like leading the AL in batting average and slugging percentage over performing.

Honorable Mentions: Nobody

Top Fade: Chris Paddack ($9,100 DK / ( N/A FD)

What happened to that fastball command and beautiful change up that was striking everybody out last year? More and more curveballs are being mixed in, which is ideally what we would like to see, but at what cost Paddack!

The Dodgers have already seen Paddack plenty in his young career and are carrying a .571 SLG (.595 xSLG) and solid 20% K rate into this matchup. I’m good with just sitting this one out.

The FD slate is even tighter than DK today, I dont see a real fade play there and would just stick with the above options

Honorable Mention: None

MLB DFS: The Bases

Very small slate today and we have weather concerns to deal with. Honestly, I’m going to play one lineup on DK and one on FD and call it a night.

We all know the importance of stacking when play MLB DFS GPPs, so here are my top stacks for the Thursday’s Main Slate.

Top Stacks

Philadelphia Phillies – Eshelman is awful. Highest fly-ball/line-drive rate on the slate and he doesn’t miss many barrels. Just eat the chalk with Philly today and get different with a few one-offs.

Value Stacks

Baltimore Orioles – Arrieta is almost as bad as Eshelman in terms of fly-ball/line-drive rate, barrels, and average exit velocity. If the weather holds up, this game should offer up a lot of run scoring.

5 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Withered Wednesday, Aces and Bases for 8.12

Patrick Waters 5 years ago

written by Patrick Waters

Hopefully, you all were on the Discord last night to catch all of our discussions that lead to a very nice night of cashing! Let’s run it back today. The August 12th edition of Aces and Bases will take on the main MLB DFS slates on DraftKings and FanDuel.

The purpose of this article is to identify our top pitching plays and fades on the slate, in addition to our top offense stacks for your GPP lineups.

Please make sure you keep an eye on the weather and other factors as those are always important things to monitor when playing MLB DFS. Be sure to check out our MLB DFS Projections as well. Without further ado, it’s Aces and Bases time.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Best Value: Kenta Maeda ($9,100 DK / $8,700 FD)

Kenta is the most appealing arm to me today so were lucky he is the 3rd option off the board on the midweek slate. The Brewers have just been downright awful at hitting balls thrown in the zone this year, swinging just 63% of the time on pitches in the zone, and whiffing 31% of the time when they do swing.

Maeda has great command and will pound the zone producing lots of whiffs today, the strikeouts will follow.

Honorable Mentions: Masahiro Tanaka

Top Ace(s): Zach Grienke ($10,300 DK / $9,800 FD)

Not much for real Aces on the main slate today. Grienke should have a good showing against the Giants, but he is not the guy that is going to produce a bunch of strikeouts and put up a million points for you.

I still like this play because he should go deep into the game, but the price and presumed ownership percentage make this play a bit less appealing.

Honorable Mention: Julio Urias

Punt Play: Jordan Lyles ($7,300 DK / $6,600 FD)

The fastball for Lyles has been rough, getting almost zero whiffs (4.3%) on it and its getting hit a lot garnering a .504 xSLG. The secondaries have been just fine, the slider gets plenty of whiffs, just beat a little when contact does get made. All Lyles has to do is polish that fastball up and things will be much better.

On a brighter note Lyles gets the Mariners and almost anyone at this price against them is worth it. Especially if that roof is closed.

Honorable Mentions: Wade LeBlanc

Top Fade: Blake Snell ($9,400 DK / ($8,500 FD)

I know, I know. This is a great spot for Snell to light it up, but he was under 60 pitches thrown last time out and the Rays will not let him go too deep here. I love Snell but it looks like hes still a couple starts away from being 100% stretched out and we can dodge this price knowing that.

Honorable Mention: None

MLB DFS: The Bases

There are a ton of different ways to build your offense on these big slates. Personally, I’m going to take a stand on a few offenses and call it a day. If you’re play MME style of GPPs, you can always get some exposure to more offenses, but for 3-Entry Max and Single Entry GPPs, I’m going to battle with a very limited player pool, as I really want to pick on a couple of starting pitchers and weaker bullpens.

We all know the importance of stacking when play MLB DFS GPPs, so here are my top stacks for the Wednesday’s Main Slate.

Top Stacks

Houston Astros – The Astros have been beating up on the Giants all week and that shouldn’t change today as the Giants are rolling out Trevor Cahill. Cahill hasnt thrown since hurting his finger in July and this lines up as a scary season debut.
New York Yankees– The Atlanta pitching staff is in shambles at the moment. The Braves are recalling Bryce Wilson to face the Yanks and should tear the young prospect up.

Value Stacks

Minnesota Twins – Not tons of value to be had as the big bats are priced accordingly usually but I have to have some Twins action today as they get ready to face Eric Lauer who gave 6 earned runs is his last start vs the reds.
Tampa Bay Rays – The Red Sox are rolling out Zach Godley who is touting a 1.50 WHIP through 11 IPs this season. I liked the Rays yesterday and they threw up an 8 spot. I expect more of the same tonight.

Monkey Knife Fight

Using the information above, you can even make some money on Monkey Knife Fight! As I said I like the Yankees stack here and you can stack 3 of their offensive players to hit the over on at least 15.5 fantasy points and win 5x your money! Check out how to play with our quick overview here.

5 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Tasty Tuesday, Aces and Bases for 8.11

scotthouston1971@yahoo.com 5 years ago

written by scotthouston1971@yahoo.com

Hopefully, you all were on the Discord last night to catch all of our discussions that lead to a very nice night of cashing! Let’s run it back today. The August 11th edition of Aces and Bases will take on the main MLB DFS slates on DraftKings and FanDuel.

The purpose of this article is to identify our top pitching plays and fades on the slate, in addition to our top offense stacks for your GPP lineups.

Please make sure you keep an eye on the weather and other factors as those are always important things to monitor when playing MLB DFS. Be sure to check out our MLB DFS Projections as well. Without further ado, it’s Aces and Bases time.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Best Value: Ross Stripling ($7,900 DK / $8,300 FD)

Stripling is dirt cheap on this long Tuesday slate. Stripling has opened the season well, the curveball is incredible as always and the command is there. The Padres see Stripling a lot, and once already this year where they got him for 4 earned in 5.2ip. Strip did get the Padres for 7 strikeouts though, as he has in 2 out of 3 starts so far this year

Honorable Mentions: Garret Richards

Top Ace(s): Max Scherzer ($10,800 DK / $10,700 FD) Dylan Bundy ($9,700 DK / $9,700 FD)

Mad Max came out of the game last week with a bad back but is returning today. Anytime Max is on the mound you can count me in.

Bundy has looked amazing this year, and is coming off a complete game where he produced 30 called strikes to go along with 10 Ks. The Athletics prove to be a tough opponent as they have 9 runs against Bundy’s Angels as I am writing this, but Bundy has already carved up the A’s for 7 Ks once this year.

Honorable Mention: Zach Wheeler

Punt Play: Zac Gallen ($8,600 DK / $7,100 FD)

Coors is undefeated. But damn is Zac Gallen good. This is such a tempting play to me, as Gallen has just made it through the gauntlet of the Dodgers and Astros in back to back starts with a combined 12.0ip/4 ER/1.08 WHIP and 2 BBs to 15Ks. On the bright side, his draft percentage will be extremely low, on the not so bright side.. Coors.

Honorable Mentions: Josh Lindblom / Jordon Montgomery

Top Fade: Mike Minor ($9,600 DK / ($7,500 FD)

Minor has not looked like his 2019 self so far thus year, the fastball is slower, and the slider usage is up trying to compensate for that. That approach is not working. The price is high here and it is rumored that Minor will be on a limited pitch count. This is going to be a high draft percentage play that I feel comfortable dodging.

Honorable Mention: Mike Fiers

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stacks

Arizona Diamondbacks – The Diamondbacks are starting to hit, they are playing in Coors. That is all.
Boston Red Sox – The Rays and Red Sox game was a bloodbath last night and tonight should be no different, the Rays are either going opener or Anthony Banda from the taxi squad.

Value Stacks

Los Angeles Angels – Trout and the Angels get Mike Fiers tonight, both Trout and Pujols crush Fiers, combining for 8 bombs against him. The rest on the Angels are hitting .361 with a .553 SLG against Fiers.
Tampa Bay Rays – The Red Sox are rolling out Martin Perez who had an okay outing against the same Rays last week, I just can’t trust that fastball sitting at 91mph with a meh change up kicking it.

Monkey Knife Fight

Using the information above, you can even make some money on Monkey Knife Fight! As I said I like the Dbacks stack here and you can stack 3 of their offensive players to hit the over on at least 12.5 fantasy points and win 3x your money! Check out how to play with our quick overview here.

5 years ago 0 comments

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