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Farmers Insurance Open: Initial Picks

Sia
written by Sia

The PGA Tour is back in full flight as we arrive at the Farmers Insurance Open.  This is another tournament that features two courses (which I find really annoying) and the courses aren’t particularly similar as they are both a Par 72 but the South course is 400-500 yards longer than the North Course.  Three of the rounds are being played on the South Course so that is where my focus will be from an analysis standpoint.  Bombers are welcome here and driving accuracy will certainly help.  Around the Green game is also important.  And finally, this is a tough place to putt so I will be putting a slightly higher emphasis than normal in that department.  In case it’s not obvious, I’m looking for guys with good to great all around games.  Let’s get started with our Farmers Insurance Open: Initial Picks!

Rory McIlroy (11000) – His track record here is excellent and he appears to be in pretty good form.  I’m usually finding excuses to fade Rory, but in this field I like him as my top guy (Rahm is great but I’ll explain why I prefer Rory on our PGA Livestream).

Harris English (9800) – Harris English doesn’t feel like a guy that can take this thing down, but he’s got a shot.  He’s got a rare combo of good ball striking and good short game and that’s the type of box checking I’m interested in this week.

Cam Smith (8500) – A guy who doesn’t necessarily grade out very well, but who can really grind on tougher courses.  I think this will be a welcome test for Cam after the resort style Sentry and Sony where he didn’t play very well. 

Ryan Palmer (8400) – Likely to be a popular player because the price is just too good.  He’s been striking the ball very well and he’s played very well at this course.  Let’s see how chalky this guy becomes, but either way, I may be eating this chalk.

Cam Davis (7900) – Can drive it a long way and not terrible with the short game.  He’s also coming off a 3rd place at the American Express so I’ll have a few shares and ride the hot hand with upside. 

Sam Burns (7700) – I was one of the few that did not tout Burns last week and that was mostly because he should never be chalk and wasn’t as good a course fit as people thought.  I think the Farmers is much better suited for Burns and I like how he closed last week with a very good Friday score (after a deplorable round on Thursday).

Carlos Ortiz (7500) – More of a hunch play as his track record here is quite bad.  But recent form has been good and I think he has upside (3 Top 15 finishes in his last 4 including an outright win).  This is a boom or bust play so tread carefully

Doug Ghim (7200) – Ball striking has been great and outside of an MC at the Sony he has been very consistent and offering plenty of upside (5th last week at AmEx).  His only two attempts at the Farmers were a MC and a 20th place finish and when you get to this range I think that’s about what you should be expecting, one or the other.

John Huh (7000) – Three Top 25’s in his last three tournaments and hasn’t missed a cut here in his last five attempts.  This is the type of guy you want at the bottom end of your lineup.

Luke List (6800) – Has been bad for a little while now but starting to come on strong and capture some of what we thought he was a couple years ago.  Luke List can hit the ball a mile and APP and ARG aren’t too bad.  What concerns me is a really bad putter, but you’re rolling the dice in this range regardless, so I’ll have a share or two of List.

Richie Werenski (6700) – Led the field in driving accuracy last week and was hitting it about 300 yards which isn’t bad.  Werenski, one of the first Secret Weapons ever, is probably entering the mispriced conversation and that means he’s a solid value play in this range.

Secret Weapon (less than 5% owned/less than 7k) – Nice little run I’m on here (27-2).  Regression coming?  Who knows.  What I do know is this week’s SW will be in Discord Wednesday night. 

Thanks for checking out our Farmers Insurance Open: Initial Picks! See everyone tonight at 8:00 EST for The Win Daily Sports PGA Livestream with Michael Rasile and Joel Schrek.  We will have the full DFS breakdown plus outrights (hit last week with Si Woo Kim at 70 to 1)! Be on the lookout for other articles coming from the Win Daily Sports Family, too!

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Daily Fantasy SportsPGA

PGA DFS Picks: Sentry Tournament of Champions

Brian Tulloch
written by Brian Tulloch

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the Sentry Tournament of Champions and helping you find some winning teams!

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

  • Strong field limited to 42 golfers
  • No Cut
  • 2020 winner: Justin Thomas (-14)
  • The course: Kapaulua (The Plantation Course) in Lahaina, HI
    • Par 73 (7,596 yards)
    • On a resort, but the Ben Crenshaw/Bill Moore design has been updated in 2019 to prevent too much bombing
    • More emphasis on approach and accuracy
    • Bermuda greens
    • Course knowledge helps
    • Wind will play a factor this week
  • Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, SG: Ball Striking, Par 4s Gained, Par 5s Gained, Proximity from 100-125, SG: Off the Tee, Birdie or Better %, SG: Putting (Bermuda), GIR

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Dustin Johnson (DK $11,000) – DJ is the betting favorite to win, and he’s done it here before. My ownership will be in large part driven by the field’s. The issue is he’s tops in my model in five of the nine categories I listed above – and top five in three others. The lone outlier is his No. 11 ranking in SG: Putting on Bermuda. He’s too good to fade.

Justin Thomas (DK $10,700) – JT is only about a half-step behind DJ in price but doesn’t really lack in any major categories except putting on this surface – which we probably shouldn’t weigh as a huge factor. You’re probably going to have to pick your stud, because fitting both requires too many scrubs. I’d like to come in right around the field ownership percentage on Thomas this week.

Jon Rahm (DK $10,400) – Rahm has been keeping limber and already has three Top 10s in three tries here. This could be the year he breaks through, and I’ll have shares in all formats. If the winds picks up like it’s supposed to, he’s a good guy to have in your lineup. The club change and new look probably shouldn’t hurt his chances here – but the mental aspects of golf are usual a huge part of his successes and failures on the course.

*Xander Schauffele (DK $10,000) – He seems to thrive in no-cut events and he notched a win here in 2018. The price is correct here and Schauffele could end up being a very popular GPP choice by Sunday when folks fade the chalky Johnson and JT. If X-Man’s approaches from 100-125 are on point this week (he’s only 40th in the field in that stat), he could win again. He’s a way better play than Bryson DeChambeau at this venue – and he’s cheaper.

*NOTE: Xander had a rough time during his COVID-19 diagnosis, and he hasn’t played much golf in the past few weeks because of the quarantine. He’s still an option for MME and large-field GPPs, but I might keep him out of my SE and cash games.

Also consider: Patrick Cantlay, Patrick Reed

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Hideki Matsuyama (DK $9,000) – With all due respect to Webb Simpson, who I’ll have some shares of, Matsuyama is my favorite player in this price range. Although Deki is just No. 18 in my model, he overperforms in wind and he gained considerable confidence on the putting surface over the past few tourneys before the December break. I’ll be overweight on the field.

Collin Morikawa (DK $8,800) – He played well in his Sentry debut last year and his game fits the profile for this course and the windy conditions. Morikawa is No. 13 in my mixed model and his performance here will hinge on his putting. I’m a big fan of this guy, and a no-cut event in a strong field might be just what he needs to get back some of his confidence that flagged a bit in late 2020.

Daniel Berger (DK $8,600) – Berger will be popular, and there’s a few guys I like a bit better for GPPs coming in just under his price – but there’s no discernible reason to fade him unless he gets super chalky. At No. 5 in my mixed model, he and Tony Finau are the only two sub-$9K golfers in my Top 10.

Cameron Smith (DK $8,400) – The Aussie debuted here in 2017 (to a T17 finish) and this is his first time back. There’s much more to like now about his game, and it’s very possible I like him more than most of the other golf experts out there. I’m most concerned about the conditions with Smith, who should have plenty of scoring opportunities if things don’t get too tough out there.

Joaquin Niemann (DK $8,300) – He’s a horse for the course and last year’s fifth place finish is testament to that. Niemann is also No. 11 in my model and while he can get a little squirrelly around the greens, he’ll have a few days to find his mojo.

Also consider: Webb Simpson, Tony Finau, Harris English, Scottie Scheffler (GPP), Abraham Ancer (GPP), Kevin Kisner, Sergio Garcia (GPP)

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Sebastian Munoz (DK $7,500) – I don’t think he can win here, but if we’re trying to find value pieces to round out our lineups, Munoz might be a nice fit. A top 15 could be good enough for cash builds and I’m not ruling out a few fliers in multi-entry GPP.

Marc Leishman (DK $7,400) – The no-cut event will help him, and he’s got a fourth and seventh place finish here in his two appearances. Leishman has excellent control over his ball flight and can go high or low when necessary, which makes him a solid value option GPPs because he’s one of the only sub-$8K golfers with Top 5 upside.

Jason Kokrak (DK $7,300) – A first-timer at Kapalua, Kokrak punched his ticket at Shadow Creek with his first PGA Tour win. I may not be all-in on Jason, but I love his game and so does the mixed model – which puts him 10th in the field overall.

Lanto Griffin (DK $6,900) – Lanto likes the wind and the course, as he finished 13th in his debut here last season. He’s one of the best value on the board and will be a staple of my single-entry GPP builds.

More value golfers to consider: Brendan Todd (Cash), Ryan Palmer, Mackenzie Hughes (GPP), Kevin Na (GPP), Stewart Cink

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Michael Thompson (DK $6,500) – The mixed model numbers don’t indicate anything special with Thompson, but his wind performance stands out among the scrubs. I’ll give him a look in two or three of my 20 lineups in my 20-max GPPs.

Martin Laird (DK $6,400) – Another first timer at this venue, Laird offers excellent value at $6,400 based on his ball-striking and ability to hit greens. Lots of folks are flocking to Richy Werenski at $6K, but a few more bucks gets you a better golfer overall.

Additional punts: Andrew Landry, Brian Gay (GPP)

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PGA

Mayakoba Golf Classic: Initial Picks

Josh Matigian
written by Josh Matigian

Mayakoba Golf Classic: Initial Picks

The Win Daily PGA team will be bringing you the customary content this week and the website and Discord chat are sure to be active over the next 24 hours.  Below are my Initial Picks for the Mayakoba and these picks incorporate recent form, course history and the appropriate strokes gained metrics (and maybe a hunch or two on golfers I’m expecting to surprise some people).  As for the metrics to focus upon, I’m looking for drivers that are accurate off the tee and APP and PUTT.  You do not need to be long off the tee on this course and that brings a few more golfers into the mix that can truly contend here. Tune into our Livestream tonight (and every Tuesday night) at 8:00 EST for more on these golfers and many more. Here are my Mayakoba Golf Classic: Initial Picks.

Brooks Koepka (11000) – Game is certainly rounding into form with a 7th at the Masters and a 5th at Houston and he feels like a great pivot off what will be a very chalky Justin Thomas.  If you want to roster JT instead of Koepka, that’s fine, but just know JT is likely to carry about 10% more ownership.  More on that with the @SicilyKid article on Wednesday and in Discord.

Viktor Hovland (9700) – His track record here doesn’t inspire confidence (two missed cuts) and he hasn’t been as good with the irons lately as I’d like, but I believe in his game too much to pass him up in this field.

Will Zalatoris (9200) – This guy is just red hot.  He’s been excellent OTT and even better on APP.  Add to that his last five tournaments he’s finished 16th, 5th, MC, 8th and 6th.  A nice finish here may get him into the OWGR Top 50 which automatically qualifies him for the 2021 Masters.

Corey Conners (9000) – His track record here isn’t good, but I’m willing to overlook that because his recent form has been great (three Top 10’s in his last four tournaments).  The strokes gained metrics add up as well as he has been great OTT and on APP.    

Carlos Ortiz (8900) – He’s been good with the ball striking lately and relatively good with the short game.  Add to that his recent form is obviously good with a 1st place in Houston and the fact that he finished 2nd here last year. 

Emiliano Grillo (8300) – If this man could ever get the putter going, his price would consistently be in the mid 9k range in fields like this.  The ball striking has been very good, particularly on APP.  Other than Houston he’s been easily making cuts and he’s made four cuts in a row here.

Joel Dahmen (8000) – We’re looking for scorers and this guy can get hot in a flash.  He’s high risk and high reward at times and when it unravels it can get bad, but his upside is too good for me to pass up. 

Doug Ghim (7400) – He’s been excellent on APP and solid with the short game, and oh yea, I picked him as 1st Round Leader on the Plantation course at the RSM and it hit (bang!).  He’s got three Top 25’s in the last three tournaments.

Austin Cook (7300) – He let us down at the RSM with an MC, but was very good prior to that.  He’s accurate OTT and can get hot on APP.  Has flashed enough recent upside for me to have him in some lineups.

Brice Garnett (7000) –Some questionable recent form for Garnett, but what you can’t question is how much he likes this track as his last four here he’s finished  11th, 5th, 25th and 7th.  Add to that he’s typically accurate OTT and we may be in the perfect spot for Garnett to pay off his price and then some.

Ryan Armour (6600) – I’m going to do my best to avoid the 6k range but if I need to dip down here, I think Armour is a great course fit.  He is a short hitter which immediately makes him relevant on this course and he is also typically accurate OTT which should set him up well on APP.  He’s made three cuts in a row here.

Secret Weapon (less than 6k/less than 5% ownership) – Tune into Discord on Wednesday.

See everyone tonight at 8:00 EST on the Livestream @windailysports on Twitter or on our Win Daily Sports YouTube channel.

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PGA

The RSM Classic: Initial Picks

Sia
written by Sia

The RSM Classic: Initial Picks

After a monster week for the entire Win Daily family, we arrive at the RSM Classic. We have a full field and a lot of good names to choose from across all price ranges. Looking for ball striking metrics as usual, but the primary focus will be on accuracy. I’ll be taking a close look at APP, accuracy off the tee, ARG and putting (in that order). Tune into the Win Daily PGA Livestream tonight at 8:00 EST for more on the golfers below and many more. Let’s get to The RSM Classic: Initial Picks.

Webb Simpson (11200) – The most talented golfer in the field who happens to have a great course history and is in great form.  It’s expensive but it’s worth it.

Russell Henley (10100) – Tough to swallow at this price but he’s been great since the restart and exceptional on APP.  With that said, he was as mere 29th in Houston and has missed the cut at the RSM the last two efforts here.  I like Henley, but won’t be afraid to pay up for Webb.

Corey Conners (8900) – He’s played this course twice and has decent results but nothing spectacular.  More importantly, Conners has been in great form with five made cuts in a row and a 10th place finish last week in Augusta. 

Doc Redman (8000) – A great ball striker who was underwhelming last time we saw him in Houston.  He played this course last year and finished a respectable 23rd.  His ARG game has been flat out bad and that may cost him here, but I’m going to lean on the ball striking.

Brendan Todd (7800) – Usually thought of as a reliable option, Todd has been bad lately and that includes missed cuts in Augusta and Bermuda.  I won’t have a lot of shares of Todd but he actually is a good course fit so I’m going to bank on him turning things around this week at low ownership.

Austin Cook (7500) – My Secret Weapon at Houston and he finished a redeemable 24th.  Prior to that he was 2nd at the Shriners and has been great OTT and on APP.  Also, no stranger to a hot putter.  Oh, and by the way, he won it all here in 2018.

Harold Varner III (7400) – Likely a popular option in this range as this appears to be a bit of a misprice.  A good ball striker that has been relatively hot of late (last three 15th, MC, 13th).  He finished 23rd last time he played here in 2019.

Joel Dahmen (7400) – Last time we saw Dahmen he finished 8th at the Zozo and prior to that he wasn’t very good.  Add to that he hasn’t been very good at this event and it seems like he’s a bad option, but he’s typically a great ball striker and can get hot quickly. 

Cameron Tringale (7200) – He is very hit or miss at this event and his ball striking hasn’t been great lately, but I’m going with pedigree here and I expect Tringale to turn things around.

James Hahn (6900) – Was on him in Houston and he didn’t really pay off with a 50th place finish, but prior to that he had three Top 10’s in a row.  Ball striking numbers during that time have been great. 

Doug Ghim (6700) – I was on Ghim in Bermuda and he paid off big with a 14th place finish.  He’s got three Top 25’s over his last four events and he’s been great on APP and ARG.  I hope he’s not popular because this is big time value. 

Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – Check Discord

See you all tonight on the Livestream and don’t forget to subscribe to the Win Daily Youtube channel and the Win Daily podcast.

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PGA

Bermuda Championship: Initial Picks

Sia
written by Sia

Bermuda Championship: Initial Picks

We head over to Bermuda this week where 132 golfers will be teeing off at a another resort course which can only mean one thing: low scores. This course is very short by PGA Tour standards so OTT metrics will be less important and APP metrics will be emphasized. Join us on the Tuesday night Livestream, but if you miss it, subscribe and listen on our podcast and YouTube channel! Let’s get to the Bermuda Championship: Initial Picks.

Will Zalatoris (10900) – The secret is out on this rising star.  If recent form is any indication (3 of his last 4 were Top 10 finishes), Zalatoris will finish Top 10 and has a great chance for the top spot.

Doc Redman (10400) – If you’re looking for ball striking, Doc Redman is your man.  His form hasn’t been great and includes a missed cut at the Shriners, but I expect the ball striking to be on and I expect him to be in the mix the entire weekend.

Cameron Tringale (9200) – Perhaps my biases are creeping in here as I have always been a Tringale Truther, but I will definitely be overweight on Tringale this week.  He’s relatively short OTT which won’t hurt him here and his APP is usually his signature strength.  Tringale shaping up to be a great play (see what I did there)?

Stewart Cink (7900) – Cink won at the Safeway and then followed that up with a solid 12th place finish at Sanderson and an underwhelming 64th at the Shriners.  An underrated golfer that should prove to be consistent across the four days of the tournament and has some finishing point upside.

Wesley Bryan (7800) – He’s great on APP and his poor OTT game shouldn’t hurt him here.  Hasn’t played a ton lately but did finish 12th at the Sanderson (had a MC before that).  Solid value at this price.

Russell Knox (7600) – Five years ago you a guy like Knox would have been in the Top 5-10 in terms of pricing because his game was so suited for these shorter courses.  Fast forward to 2020 and what we have is a very inconsistent golfer who has recently show flashes of his old self (9th at Safeway).  I think his price is just right here to make a play on him, but exercise caution with the number of shares.

Doug Ghim (7100) – Actually been on this guy in the last few tournaments he’s played.  I got burned once but he was in the Top 25 in the other two and exceeded his value.  In his last four tournaments Ghim has picked up strokes in almost all categories and has picked up almost three strokes on APP each of his last three tournaments.  Sneaky play at this price.

Kyle Stanley (7100) – Risky play considering how bad he was the last time out at the Shriners, but Stanley is normally a very good ball striker and if he can somehow get the putter going, he can really come through for you.  Don’t go crazy with the ownership here, but he’s worth a look.

Rob Oppenheim (7000) – Usually not great OTT, but again, not as important in Bermuda.  His APP game has been on point as of late and he’s not bad with the short game either. 

Hank Lebioda (6800) – Hammerin’ Hank has made 3 of his last 4 cuts and finished 3rd at Bermuda last year.  We get a low end guy with good course history and good enough recent history.

Ryan Armour (6600) – Hasn’t been good lately (hence the price point), but Armour proved he had upside after the re-start with a couple of very impressive finishing positions.  Add to that he’s a relatively short hitter who won’t be intimidated by this short course and the fact that he finished 8th here last year, and we have found some potential value. 

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PGA

ZOZO Championship: Initial Picks

Sia
written by Sia

ZOZO Championship: Initial Picks

Another 78 person field and another opportunity to jam in upside at a no-cut event.  We will bring you much more in the next 24 hours with articles and our expert chat, and of course, the Tuesday PGA Livestream at 8:00 EST @windailysports on Twitter and YouTube and Twitch.  We have a relatively short course this week with five Par 5’s and five Par 3’s.  I’d focus on birdie makers and APP here but you will also want to factor in accuracy OTT as there are some trouble spots on most of the holes. Here are my ZOZO Championship: Initial Picks.

Jon Rahm (11000) – The entire team was on Xander last week and that worked out just fine, but this week I’m going to pivot from Xander to Rahm in the elite range.  Rahm was average last week (17th) and hopefully that keeps his ownership reasonable. 

Justin Thomas (10600) – Another guy I like in the elite tier.  His APP game is best in the field and last week’s 12th place finish felt like a tune-up.  If he can get the putter going at all you will see him contending late Sunday afternoon.

Patrick Reed (9600) – Haven’t heard from him much lately but let’s not forget the last time we did see him as at the U.S. Open where he finished 13th.  He’s also enjoyed great success on comparable courses. 

Viktor Hovland (9200) – One of my top guys last week and he quietly finished in 12th. He gained over 3 strokes ball striking last week and even gained strokes ARG which is his alleged weakness. 

Bubba Watson (8700) – Literally the first time I’ve ever had Bubba in a write-up, but the guy has earned it.  His ball striking has been elite lately and it’s looking like his ownership percentage will be below 10% which is notable given the price range and the number of players in the field. 

Joaquin Niemann (8400) – Can go hot and cold but was great last week and has the type of upside you want.   This is a great price for a guy in great form and a great course fit.  I may sprinkle some on Joaquin for an outright win.

Russell Henley (8100) – I didn’t have as many shares as I should have last week and it cost me.   He continues to be priced low and therefore needs to be considered as his ball striking has been great lately.  Normally I’d suggest his upside is limited, but that’s hard to argue as he finished 3rd last week.  Be careful here as he picked up a ton of strokes putting last week.  Still, even if putter cools down, the value is good at this price.

Sebastian Munoz (7200) – A pretty low price for a guy that has been making cuts at an incredible rate and who has the ability to finish Top 10 as he proved last week.  We may be looking at a guy who is ready to consistently be in the conversation, so I’m going to jump aboard while he’s still cheap.

Joel Dahmen (6500) – In a no-cut event I’m looking for a guy who can string a very low round together and Dahmen is that guy.  His blow up spot won’t cost you too much relative to the scoring potential he has all four days.

Secret Weapon (Sub 6k/Less than 5% owned) – see you in Discord.

See everyone tonight for the Tuesday Livestream and don’t forget to subscribe to the Win Daily Podcast and YouTube channel!

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PGA

Shriners: Initial Picks

Sia
written by Sia

Shriners: Initial Picks

We finally have a legitimate field of stars here at the Shriners and it appears that we have value in all pricing tiers. I have isolated my Initial Picks, but I can assure you we will have many more on the Livestream TONIGHT at 8:00 and in Discord up until Thursday morning. Please tune in tonight and good luck this week. Here are is the Shriners: Initial Picks.

Bryson DeChambeau (11800) – There’s no such thing as a lock button guy in golf, but this is pretty close.  His game fits this course quite well, he’s been on fire lately and he’s got a great track record at this course.  His price is the only downside, but you’re going to want plenty of shares.  Bryson will likely be owned at over 20% this week so clearly his price tag is not dissuading players from selecting him.  A lock in cash, but if you want to fade him in a big GPP, I have no issue with it.

Tony Finau (10200) – Yes, I passed right over the guy (Patrick Cantlay) who has finished 2nd, 2nd and 1st his last three years at this event, but I’m going to pivot to Finau who also comes in great form and has a solid track record at this event (including a Top 10 last year).  I’m assuming the expensive salary will keep his ownership at 15% or below.

Matthew Wolff (9600) – Had a top 20 finish last year in his first time at the Shriner’s.  That’s not terribly impressive but Wolff’s game suits this course very well and he’s been on fire as of late (Top 5 finishes in his last two majors).  Wolff is finally being priced up with Morikawa and for good reason.  Interestingly, it looks like Wolff’s ownership will be higher than Morikawa by a significant margin (tracking at 22% versus 15% as of now). 

Sergio Garcia (9100) – Not a huge fan of selecting the winner from the week prior, but this seems like a reasonable price for a guy that is great T2G and who may have figured out some of his putting issues last week.   Sergio’s projected ownership looks to be tracking at less than 7% and he is therefore a nice GPP pivot from many of the other golfers in this range.

Cam Davis (8200) – A long hitter who can get hot at any moment, as evidenced by last week’s Round 3 of nine under (7 birdies and 1 eagle including 5 birdies in a row).   Davis usually fizzles on Sundays but if he gets to Sunday, he’s likely to pay off his price tag.  Be careful in GPP’s with Davis as he is tracking at approximately 25% ownership which is enormous in this range.  You can play him in GPP’s, just be mindful of the chalk and be different elsewhere.  A great cash play.

Joaquin Neimann (8100) –  The ball striking metrics are there for Joaquin, but he is certainly a hit or miss prospect this week.  Going with the upside that he flashed at the BMW (3rd place) and he remains in relatively good form with a 23rd at the U.S. Open.  At less than 10% projected ownership, he’s a nice GPP pivot from Cam Davis (Ancer is another good pivot in the 8k range as his ownership is below 10% as of now).

Denny McCarthy (7600) – Finished 6th last week and has two Top 15’s in his last two attempts at the Shriners.  His ball striking metrics have been very good as of late and he is a great putter.  Good value at the price.

Kristoffer Ventura (7100) – His recent strokes gained metrics jump off the page.  Outside of some somewhat shaky APP play, he’s been knocking the metrics out of the park.  He’s also finished Top 8 in two out of his last three tournaments.  Finished 18th here last year.

Henrik Norlander (6900) – An absolute boom or bust play.  He has been bad lately, but finally emerged from the abyss last week with a 4th place at Sanderson.  We saw the upside with Norlander right after the re-start so we know he has it in him.

Tyler Duncan (6700) – Duncan has been a bit erratic lately with the driver and the putter but his APP game is fantastic.  The rough shouldn’t be too penal here so maybe his APP game bails him out and maybe he finds the putter.  When you get into the 6k range you need to play the ‘maybe’ card from time to time, and I’m happy to do that with Duncan.

Sepp Straka (6500) – Coming off a missed cut last week, but here we have a golfer that typically gains OTT and on APP and doesn’t have a terrible putter.  Plenty of boom upside with Straka.

JB Holmes (6400) – On absolutely nobody’s radar but he did make the cut last week and unfortunately had a horrific Sunday.  I’m willing to lean a bit on pre-injury pedigree for Holmes with the knowledge that I’m dipping into a dangerous area in the 6k range.

Don’t forget to join us TONIGHT at 8:00 for the Win Daily PGA Livestream with Michael Rasile, Joel Schrek and myself. Don’t forget to also subscribe to the Win Daily Podcast and the Win Daily YouTube channel. See you tonight!

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PGA

Sanderson Farms: Initial Picks

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written by Sia

Sanderson Farms: Initial Picks

This week the PGA Tour arrives in Mississippi for the Sanderson Farms Championship. Similar to last week, there isn’t a ton of talent in the field, but there is certainly a talent upgrade relative to last week. We have plenty more content coming from Antonio and Steven, and of course, the PGA Livestream is every Tuesday Night @windailysports and on YouTube so please tune into that and subscribe to the Win Daily Podcast. Here are my Sanderson Farms: Initial Picks.

Sam Burns (9800) – This range is probably where I will be starting most of my lineups, but I will certainly have a couple shares of Scheffler, Im and Zalatoris (more on this on the Tuesday Livestream and Win Daily Podcast).  I prefer more balance this week so my core will feature guys like Burns and Redman.  Last week I had Burns in DFS and outright, but a disappointing Saturday took him out of contention.  He rebounded nicely on Sunday and I think he has plenty of win equity in a field that features similar talent.  Burns finished 45th here last year, but finished 3rd in 2019.

Doc Redman (9700) – One thing you’ll notice if you follow golf is that great ball strikers tend to have success on any style course, even ones where the course benefits longer hitters.  Doc isn’t a hammer with the driver like Burns or Scheffler, but he’s a great ball striker and he’s an elite player in this field.

Luke List (9000) – Another guy I had heavy in DFS and outright last week and he finished Top 10.  Not too bad.  He missed the cut here last year and didn’t play Sanderson in 2017 or 2018, but he did finish 2nd in 2017.   A long hitter who can be hit or miss, but I’ll play the upside.

Cameron Davis (8100) – A perfect course fit and a guy who has been making cuts at an impressive rate.  This guy is probably mispriced a bit and I expect him to make the cut and be in the conversation over the weekend.  I already have an outright on Davis at 45 to 1.

Tom Lewis (7700) – Put this one in the ‘gut play’ category as his recent form doesn’t make me feel warm and fuzzy.  With that said, post pandemic, I saw him get red hot at the WGC (2nd place finish) and at less than 5% expected ownership, he can win you a GPP.  Lewis SG metrics aren’t great but he does gain strokes on most of the field on Bermudagrass.

Stewart Cink (7600) – A guy I’ve been fitting into lineups for well over a year now, he’s just constantly overlooked.  With a relative lack of talent in the field, I’ll take the guy who finished 1st a few weeks back at Safeway and who had a 28th place finish his last time on this track.  Cink is yet another Bermudagrass specialist. 

Nick Taylor (7400) – Taylor hasn’t been very good this year, but he’s generally good OTT and on APP and has some upside at this price.  Don’t grab too many shares, but Taylor is in my player pool. 

J.B. Holmes (7000) – no idea what to expect from Holmes, as injuries have plagued him for quite some time.  With that said, he’s got the pedigree to compete on Sunday if he captures some of his old form.  Made the cut and finished 46th at Safeway, so at least we know he’s not in bad form. At this price, you need to take a shot in at least one lineup.

Tom Hoge (6900) – great with his irons and perhaps an underrated player.  He can really get hot and cold and that can lead to one too many missed cuts to make you comfortable.  However, he appears to have gained some consistency lately and I think he’s a great value if you need to dip into this range. 

Adam Schenk (6700) – A couple months back I had Schenk as the WinDaily SW and he hasn’t missed a cut since (coincidence?).  His weekend finishes aren’t exactly impressive but this guy appears to be a free square when it comes to making cuts.  He finished 7th here in 2019 and has made the cut all three times he’s played Sanderson.

Kelly Kraft (6400) – shout out to Mr. Joel Schrek @draftmasterflex for finding this gem last week.  This guy was full of eagles or birdie streaks last week and there’s no reason not to take another shot if you need to get down to this price range. 

Secret Weapon (sub7k/less than 5%) – Another solid hit last week, particularly due to a great Sunday which included an eagle and a birdie streak.  The SW hasn’t missed a cut, ever.  The run will end at some point, but all aboard the Secret Weapon Freight Train!

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PGA

U.S. Open Initial Picks

Sia
written by Sia

U.S. Open Initial Picks

Don’t look now, but the U.S. Open Championship is already here. This is going to be a very tough course and the rough will not be pleasant. My focus for the U.S. Open Initial Picks will be on approach, accuracy off the tee and short game (ARG and PUTT). We are not going to have super low scores in this one so keep finishing position in that back of your mind as that will be more important than most tournaments. We will be on LIVE at 8:30 tonight (Tuesday) to breakdown the entire slate @windailysports on Twitter, Twitch and YouTube. We’ll also have more articles on WinDailySports.com!

Jon Rahm (11000) – It’s pretty clear that Rahm checks all the boxes and he’s my favorite in this elite range.  OTT game is outstanding and it’s rare when his irons fail him (it does happen, but it’s rare).  My favorite part about Rahm on such a difficult course is he appears to have his temperament under control.

Webb Simpson (9700) – If you’re looking for a great APP game and a great short game, you’ve found it in Webb.  He’s not long off the tee but I’m looking for accuracy more than I am looking for length this week.  Don’t get me wrong, length will be important as well this week, but I need my guys in the fairway as the rough is going to be big trouble.

Daniel Berger (9200) – Mr. Under the Radar.  All he does is show up and find himself in the mix on Sundays.  There isn’t really a weak spot with Berger and his short game should pay dividends this week.  Berger also picks up strokes on the field on this putting surface.

Jason Day (8800) – Hasn’t been good his last couple of tournaments and that should keep ownership down.  He finished 4th at the PGA which was also a very difficult course and I have no issue taking a chance on the pedigree.

Adam Scott (8700) – He hasn’t been super impressive since his return at the PGA, but if you consider he waited the longest of all the top golfers to resume play, his numbers don’t look bad.  This week I’m including a lot of golfers that have the pedigree and that can handle the ups and downs of a very tough course.

Paul Casey (7900) – Your classic boom or bust play, but the boom has been evident this year and I’m happy to have some shares.  Casey can be very shaky with the short game, but his OTT and APP metrics grade out very well.

Matthew Wolff (7700) – Finished 4th at the PGA and 16th at BMW and is certainly your best bargain of the Morikawa, Hovland and Wolff trio.  He’s going to really need to be dialed in with the irons as the ARG game isn’t good.  I won’t be heavy on Wolff but the upside is there so certainly a few shares.

Louis Oosthuizen (7600) – The strokes gained metrics don’t look great but his finishing positions at tough courses look fantastic.  Not a guy I’m usually on, but when majors come around he’s worth a look.

Sungjae Im (7500) – Speaking of boom or bust.  Sungjae is one of those golfers you don’t want a lot of shares of, but you do want some.  He gains strokes in all metrics, but he’ll need to avoid the blow up spot.

Brendon Todd (7400) – Always seems to be dialed in with his irons which hopefully makes up for him being short off the tee.  He finds himself in contention too often to be ignored at this price.

Kevin Streelman (6700) – Gained strokes everywhere at the Safeway Open last week.  Streelman has his issues OTT at times and can go ice cold with the putter but you are definitely getting good value with Streelman in this bottom end range.  This also happens to be his best putting surface.

Chez Reavie (6900) – Very accurate OTT and has been excellent on APP (picked up 7 strokes on the field last week and 3 at the Northern Trust).  Coming in good form and checking the necessary boxes puts Reavie as a very good bargain.

Secret Weapon (sub 7k/<5% ownership) – Tune into Discord.

See everyone in Discord and don’t forget to watch the Livestream and subscribe to the Win Daily Podcast.

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PGA

The Northern Trust: Initial Picks

Sia
written by Sia

The Northern Trust: Initial Picks

Welcome to round one of the FedEx Cup Playoffs where we will have a field of 125. With fewer in the field it will be very important to get all your picks through the cut, and with that in mind, I’ll likely be going for a more balanced approach this week (which will still allow you to grab a golfer from the elite price range). Tune into tonight’s Livestream at 8:30 for more on the Northern Trust (and subscribe to the Win Daily Podcast if you haven’t already). Be on the lookout for more PGA DFS content over at Win Daily Sports! Let’s get to The Northern Trust: Initial Picks. Note all prices for DraftKings.

Bryson DeChambeau (11100) – Bryson’s length will benefit him here and he won on this track in 2018. Also happens to be in good form with a 4th place finish at the PGA Championship.  Of all of the guys in the elite price range, this one is my favorite. 

Jason Day (9300) – Appears to be healthy and has been locking in Top 10 finishes in his last four tournaments, including a 4th place at the PGA Championship.  He has gained strokes APP for five tournaments in a row.  He was also 20th on this track in 2018 and finished 6th, 4th and 1st in the three years prior to 2018.

Daniel Berger (8900) – This price range has talent everywhere but I’m going to lean on a guy who I think has had some of the best form this entire year.  He gains strokes in every category and since the restart he is averaging over two strokes gained per round.  He also has a solid track record on this course.

Adam Scott (8400) – Surprised me with a 22nd  at the PGA Championship after an extremely long layoff (was his first action since the restart).  His track record on this course is impeccable.  Even for not having played much golf since the restart, Scott is ranked 36th in the FedEx Cup Standings and therefore well within striking distance of the top spot.

Billy Horschel (7900) – Probably should have won last week and finished 3rd on this track in 2018.  Perhaps the biggest thing going for Horschel is that his game consistently ramps up around playoff time.  He seemed loose and yet locked in last week.  I’ll see if I can catch him again in great form this week.

Matthew Wolff (7800) – He’s striking the ball too well to ignore at this price.  This guy could may have won the PGA Championship if he were able to sink a few 6 foot putts down the stretch.  Not afraid to hang with the big boys down the stretch on Sundays.

Ryan Palmer (7300) – This range puts us squarely in hit or miss territory and that’s exactly what you are getting with Palmer.  He’s been very good OTT and APP and if that stays the course then it will only require a decent putter for him to pay off his pricetag in a big way.  Be careful with being overweight on Palmer as when it goes bad, it usually goes very bad, but the upside is there.

Emiliano Grillo (7000) – Really want to do my best this week to not sink down into this range, but if I’m going to do it, I’m going to go with a great ball striker who can’t seem to figure out the putter (a hot putter can happen to anyone).  Grillo is in good form as of late and his last three at TPC Boston have all resulted in made cuts and that includes a 2nd place in 2016.

Talor Gooch (6500) – Ball striking has been good lately and since the restart he’s either good for a missed cut or a Top 25 finish.  If he obtains the latter he pays off his pricetag easily.  Hoping to ride the good form from last week.

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