DFS

The four best teams in the NFL remain, and only two will survive after today’s games in the Conference Championship round. We’re coming off a heater, going 3-0-1 last week with game bets. The Commanders and Bills both came through as outright winners despite being underdogs. And the two finalists from 2023, the Eagles and Chiefs, came through as home favorites to potentially setup a rematch from a classic Super Bowl two years ago.

Looking at today we have been gifted with an inter-division matchup meaning teams will see each other for a 3rd time this season in Washington and Philadelphia. Out west, we get another classic matchup of Josh Allen versus Patrick Mahomes. Those two have met three times in the playoffs with the Chiefs winning each. But the Bills have gotten closer each time, losing by 14, by 6 and by 3 points last year.

I’m breaking down the games as they’re played this weekend in chronological order. Along with each game bet, I’ll also provide a few props that I’ll be looking at as well.

NFL BETS CHAMPIONSHIP ROUND WEEKEND (2025 PLAYOFF RECORD: 5-4-1 game bets / 6-4 prop bets)

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES -6 vs WASHINGTON COMMANDERS (3:00 PM EST)

I’ll start this by saying I am an Eagles fan. Which you probably all know by now. So I’m trying my best to pick with my head not my heart here.

With that being said, I respect the heck out of Washington (much like LA last week). They pose so many challenges especially at the QB position. Jayden Daniels is putting up the best rookie season for a QB that we’ve ever seen. And they’re on a heater right now, winning seven straight coming into today’s NFC Championship Game. On defense, while the Commanders rank 23rd in DVOA, they created five turnovers last week in Detroit. They are opportunistic and aggressive, often creating havoc in the backfield at the expense of coverage in the secondary. Dan Quinn knows he’s undersized and undermanned on the D-Line, but he has still found ways to create pressure and impact games defensively.

However, the Commanders magic must run out at some point. The only position on the field today that they can claim to be better is the QB. And while that’s the most important of all positions, football is a team sport. Jalen Hurts had a great week of practice, and his mobility looked good. As long as he’s a threat in the run game, Washington will have fits trying to stop this Eagles offense.

In their last meeting, the Eagles scored touchdowns on three of their first four drives. And several of those were with backup QB Kenny Pickett. It wasn’t until the Commanders stacked the box that they limited the Eagles running game and held them to four FG’s the rest of the way. Pickett wasn’t a threat to run or throw deep. Hurts is both of those. His health and ability to play his game is everything today for the Eagles offense.

Then there’s the fact that Washington is playing their 4th straight road games. Teams in this situation since 2000, with a fourth straight road game in the playoffs, are 0-7 SU and 1-5-1 ATS. Washington is also missing two key players in OL Sam Cosmi and DT Daron Payne. And I haven’t even mentioned the Eagles defense yet. They are ranked #1 overall and #2 in points allowed. This unit has not allowed more than 23 points in a game at home all season. And they allow just 16 points per game at the Linc.

If the Eagles can’t contain Daniels and Hurts can’t be a factor in the running game, then yes, the Commanders can and likely will pull this one out. But the talent advantage all over the field tells me those will be two very tall mountains to climb for Washington. The Eagles will wear down the Commanders and we’ll see Saquon break one late to seal the game. I think it’ll play much like their matchup back in Week 11 when the Eagles won 26-18. The Commanders had the lead in that game heading into the 4th Q. But the Eagles physicality broke through as they recorded three rushing TD’s in the final frame enroute to the victory.

PROP BETS:

TBD

TBD

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS -1.5 vs BUFFALO BILLS (6:30 PM EST)

This game should be fantastic similar to last week’s great battle between Buffalo and Baltimore. There are so many storylines including the Chiefs quest to three-peat and the Bills trying to reach the Super Bowl for the first time in 31 years.

The Chiefs are 16-2 but have shown some vulnerability all season, winning an unprecedented 11 one-score games. In fact, Kansas City was 11-0 in games decided by 8 points or less. The mastery of Mahomes and Reid factored into that mark, but so did some luck like having Isaiah Likely’s toe just step out of bounds or seeing a chip shot FG by Denver get blocked as time expired. The fact is, this team knows how to win. And that’s even more so true in Kansas City where they are 10-0 this season.

The Bills on the other hand are the only team to beat Mahomes this season as the Chiefs only other loss came in Week 18 with Carson Wentz under center. Josh Allen is 4-4 in his career against the Chiefs and has had success in all those starts. The problem is he’s 0-3 in the playoffs, including 0-2 in Arrowhead.

As much as I think the Bills have the recipe and formula to beat the Chiefs. I tend to ask myself, and everyone else this. Who do you think wins if this is a close game? We’ve already laid out the remarkable number the Chiefs have in those situations. The Bills are just 5-3 in one-score games this year. It would take a significant call or some stroke of luck for the Bills to win this one. Which is something we can root for but I can’t let my wallet bet on. Until someone proves they can do it, I’m backing the Chiefs to march onto New Orleans for the Super Bowl.

PROP BETS:

TBD

TBD

Now that you finished reading the NFL CHAMPIONSHIP ROUND PLAYOFF BETS article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

The best weekend of football is here as we have the eight remaining teams left in the NFL Playoffs. The stories are endless as we have just two QB’s who have won a Super Bowl. But of the remaining six, there are MVP’s, ROY’s and loads of talent. Which shows each team has a chance to get to New Orleans and take claim to the throne as the NFL’s best team. The Wild Card Weekend was a roller coaster for us. The game bets went 2-4 but the prop bets went 4-2. The only reason I ended up on the plus side was due to a 5x bet on the Eagles. Some tailgate waters helped fuel that bravado. But we do need a better showing in the game bets this week to push us onto the plus side of the equation.

I’m breaking down the games as they’re played this weekend, in chronological order. Along with each game bet, I’ll also provide a few props that I’ll be looking at as well.

NFL BETS DIVISIONAL ROUND WEEKEND (2025 PLAYOFF RECORD: 2-4 game bets / 4-2 prop bets)

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS -8.5 vs HOUSTON TEXANS (4:30 PM EST, SATURDAY)

The numbers are astounding for the Chiefs during the Divisional Round in the Patrick Mahomes era. They are 6-0 in this weekend’s games under their star QB. Mahomes has averaged over 300 yards per game and thrown for 16 TD’s to 0 INT’s in this round. And they are looking for their 7th straight trip to the conference championship which trails just the Patriots who went to eight straight during the 2011-2018 stretch. On the other side, Houston is 0-5 in Divisional Round games as they have never advanced to a Championship game. Additionally, they are 0-5 on the road in the playoffs. Both marks make them standalone as they are the only team to never make a Championship game and never win a road playoff game.

And while I like to fade the public and zag when others zig, I saw how the Chiefs finished the regular season and know what type of animal they are in the playoffs. It’s almost like they slow-played their hand for 14 weeks and then started ramping up for the real season. Throwing out the Week 18 game when they rested the starters, the Chiefs ended the regular season 3-0 and covering all three of those games against the spread. They won those games by a collective score of 77 to 36.

And then there’s the Texans. I can’t erase the sights of CJ Stroud trying to throw the game away against LA only to see his defense bail them out. Houston won because they kept LA out of the endzone early (when the game was on the hinges) and then made them one-dimensional which created the turnover opportunities. They won’t get four INT’s today and they likely won’t get a defensive touchdown. For them to win, CJ Stroud will have to be great. And I’m just not sure he can be great enough to do that. The Texans were ranked 26th in offensive DVOA and was the second lowest scoring team of any playoff team at 21.9 ppg.

PROP BETS:

Nico Collins over 80.5 receiving yards (-110 DK). This is a big number. But if you believe in my game script, the Texans will be down early and often. Setting up lots of throwing opportunities for Stroud to Collins. KC is 26th in DVOA against #1 WR’s and are top 12 against all other pass catchers.

Xavier Worthy over 4.5 rushing yards (-110 DK). In Worthy’s last three games, he’s ran for 50 yards on 8 carries. He’s had multiple carries in all three of those games. At this line, we likely just need one carry to get this number. But if we get two, he’s going well over this line. In the first matchup, Houston played 40% Cover 1. Something close to that will give HC Andy Reid the looks he likes to setup a jet sweep and block the outside zone coverage.

WASHINGTON COMMANDERS +9 at DETROIT LIONS

I love the Lions and still project them to be the NFC Champions this year. But this Washington Commanders team is playing with house money while Detroit has the most amount of pressure they’ve ever had. That, in and of itself, is a daunting task for a team that’s not used to playing the favorites role.

And that’s really part of this story. The Commanders played aggressive last weekend. Like they had nothing to lose. HC Dan Quinn went for it on 4th down on five occasions, converting three of those. And based on his aggression, the Commanders never punted last week. They either scored, or turned it over on downs, in their seven possessions. I expect more of the same from Quinn this week as he knows he has to score points to keep up with Detroit.

For the Lions, they welcome back David Montgomery which is a great sign. He is one of the leaders on their team and will surely give them a boost. But before last season, the Lions had not won a playoff game since 1991. In fact, they have just three playoff wins in franchise history in the modern Super Bowl era. While that’s not saying they can’t win today, it just highlights the extreme pressure this team has as it is the best one in franchise history.

I expect the Commanders to hang around long enough to give the Lions a scare. Tampa did so last year in this round as they were tied with Detroit heading into the 4th quarter.

PROP BETS:

Brian Robinson over 1.5 receptions (-110 DK). The Commanders RB’s had 7 receptions last week against Tampa. And Robinson led the way with four. However, this week, Austin Ekeler has a reception prop of double Robinson’s. I’ll take the back that sees the field more to get over his reception prop. Detroit is 29th in the league in DVOA against RB’s in the passing game. If they decide to play the blitz heavy defense they did against Minnesota, Daniels will look for the quick check downs and not fall to the fate that Sam Darnold did.

Jameson Williams over 55.5 yards (-110 DK). The Lions can attack the Commanders defense any way they want. That’s primarily because of all the weapons at Detroit’s disposal. But it’s also because Washington is not very good defensively, ranking 23rd in defensive DVOA. With Lattimore back, I expect the Lions to exploit CB Mike Sainristill who allows 11.8 yards per catch (91st among DB’s) and has 13 missed tackles (ranked 205th among DB’s).

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES -6 vs LA RAMS

The Eagles were significantly better than the Rams in their first outing in LA. Philadelphia won that game by a score of 37-20. They dominated the game offensively and defensively. And despite what you saw from LA last week, they are not that much different than the first outing. The defensive pressure has improved but at the sake of the offense, which scored 20 or less in three of it’s last four games.

Then there’s the eye test. LA looked great against Minnesota. But we just saw the team that allowed just 9 points to the Vikings get completely throttled by the Commanders on Saturday. Yes, the Vikings were absolute frauds. While the Rams dominated the Vikings, that game showed more about Minnesota than it did LA.

The Eagles are better in every phase. Barring a crazy weather game or uncommon turnovers, the Eagles should dominate this game upfront which is where playoff games are won. While the weather is calling for snow, that should actually favor Philly as the offensive line should be able to plow over the smaller Rams defensive front opening up big holes for #26.

PROP BETS: TBD

BUFFALO BILLS +1.5 vs BALTIMORE RAVENS

This is the hardest game of the weekend to handicap. These are two of the top teams in the NFL, and one will have to plan for Cancun weeks ahead of their preferred time. According to DVOA, these are the top 2 offenses in the NFL with Baltimore having a slight edge. Defensively, both teams rank in the top 11. Looking at the standings, both teams finished with a +157 point differential, which was the highest in the AFC and 3rd most in the NFL.

But in this matchup of even teams, I’m riding with the home boys in the Buffalo Bills. The Bills have a few things that I believe are motivational edges. First, they were embarrassed by the Ravens in prime time back in Week 4 losing by 25 points. Derrick Henry ran wild, accumulating 199 rushing yards on just 24 carries. But one thing to note is the Bills were without three starting defensive players in that game. Then there’s the weather factor as there will be snow, and it will be cold. The forecast is calling for single digit temperatures which Buffalo is well equipped for. The last playoff game that Baltimore played in Buffalo was also cold, and the Ravens scored just 3 points as they couldn’t adjust to the frigidness of western NY.

I also factor in Buffalo is 9-0 at home this year, with only 3 of those games being one score affairs. This team is built for this weather and they embrace their home field advantage. Lastly, the Ravens look like they will be without WR Zay Flowers. The lack of Flowers speed can allow Buffalo to creep the safeties up and help scheme against the powerful Ravens running game.

Baltimore is a great team but I’ve seen a few scattered results from them where they get away from who they are. I can easily see them winning but also realize they have some skeletons in their playoff closet too which could come creeping out again today.

PROP BETS: TBD

Now that you finished reading the NFL DIVISIONAL ROUND PLAYOFF BETS article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

The day is finally here as 14 teams enter the NFL Playoffs with all the same goal, lifting the Vince Lombardi trophy come the night of February 9th. And what better way to celebrate the playoffs as a fan then have a little extra skin in the game. Which is exactly why we’re here. After a “mid” regular season where I finished 48-47-1, we’re looking to the end the year with a bang (similar to how we’ve nailed the College Football Bowl Season). So join us on this upcoming journey and tail, fade or pass. But either way get ready for the ride because these next 5 weeks will bring us some of the best football we’ve seen all year.

I’m breaking down the games as they’re played this weekend, in chronological order. Along with each game bet, I’ll also provide a few props that I’ll be looking at as well.

NFL BETS WILD CARD WEEKEND (2024 SEASON RECORD: 48-47-1, game bets only)

LA CHARGERS -2.5 at HOUSTON TEXANS (4:30 PM EST, SATURDAY)

If you’ve read my articles this year, then you understand that I like to fade heavy public interest in games. Typically, that is a winning strategy but this year it didn’t hit as often as we’d expect. So I adjusted late and bought into some of the games where there was heavy square money. The point of all that is what we’re seeing today in the Chargers and Texans game. Los Angeles is being picked to win by every NFL analyst whether on TV or the internet. And the window in Vegas is backing that as 72% of the bets and 71% of the money is on Jim Harbaugh’s team. And honestly, this is usually a zig when they zag spot for me, but today it’s not.

I just simply can’t ignore the Texans inefficiencies for most, if not all, of the season. Houston is the worst offensive team in the playoffs, and it’s not close. They rank 25th overall in offensive DVOA which puts them in the likes of New Orleans, Dallas, New York Giants and the Chicago Bears. Most of those teams will be picking in the top 10 of the draft and weren’t close to playoff football. From a pure statistics perspective, it wasn’t great either as the Texans racked up just 319.7 total yards per game which is good for 13th out of the 14 playoff teams (Pittsburgh only team worse at 319.4). Same goes with points scored as they averaged 21.9 points per game, also ranking 13th of the 14 playoff teams (LA Rams came in at 21.6 ppg).

A lot of the offensive issues were due to the injuries and an inconsistent QB and offensive line. Upfront, Houston ranked 19th in pass blocking and 27th in run blocking. Because of that, the Texans allowed 54 sacks which was the third most in the NFL. At the helm, QB CJ Stroud took a step backwards in his sophomore season as he threw just 20 TD’s with 12 INT’s. The latter stat was tied for the 4th most in the NFL. The more concerning part is that Stroud was ranked 25th in QBR, with three rookie QB’s ranked higher as well as his fellow sophomore Bryce Young. A lot of that was due to teams bringing pressure against Stroud. The Texans were blitzed the 3rd most in the league but gave up the highest pressure rate at 27.2%.

While this has been all about the Texans, the point here is the Chargers have a much better offense than Houston. LA ended up ranking 13th in offensive DVOA and 11th in points per game. Their QB, Justin Herbert, threw just three interceptions all season as the Chargers turned the ball over just 9 times this season, 2nd fewest in the league. While Houston’s defense will keep them in the game, I trust Herbert and his corps of receivers much more. I think this is the day we see the Chargers actually win a close playoff game and set their sights to next week and a possible matchup with KC.

NOTE: I’m buying a half point here which brings the juice up to -125. Most books have not moved off the key number of 3.

PROP BETS: John Metchie III over 24.5 receiving yards (-110 DK). The Chargers rank 30th in DVOA against WR2’s. By default, Metchie has been playing WR2 for Houston.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS +9.5 at BALTIMORE RAVENS

We’re back to our regularly scheduled program. I’m backing a team the public has totally dismissed in the Pittsburgh Steelers. We’ve talked prior about how good of an underdog Mike Tomlin is. In fact, he’s the second-best coach ATS (active) as an underdog hitting at a 64% rate with a 62-35-3 record. And if we follow this rivalry close enough, we know these games are always tight as nine of the last ten have been one score games (the last game is the only one that wasn’t but a Russel Wilson fumble at goal line was likely the reason why).

Then there’s the Lamar in the playoffs factor as the Ravens QB is just 2-4 in the playoffs. This includes a 1-3 record at home. None of those games were with the sledgehammer he has in the backfield this year in Derrick Henry. But there’s still a little playoff uncertainty from the two-time NFL MVP.

In the end, this is a divisional game that is between two hated rivals. No rah-rah speeches are needed and they have enough motivation just seeing the other teams jersey to be ready for this one. There is split action at the windows, with 49% of the money on Pittsburgh and 51% on Baltimore. There are some major trends that do point to Baltimore (home favorites of 9+ in Wild Card Round are 10-1 ATS in last 20 years) but I’m sticking with my intuition here and banking on the Steelers to have enough offense to make this one scary for the Ravens.

PROP BETS: George Pickens over 56.5 yards (-110 DK). The Ravens allow the most yards to WR1 on the season. And it’s by a wide margin. Pickens has been trash but he’s also into the trash talk. Look for the Steelers to get him going early and let the talking fuel his game. Pittsburgh’s only chance to win is to get Pickens involved early and often.

BUFFALO BILLS -9 vs DENVER BRONCOS

This game is very intriguing on many levels. First off, I saw a pre-draft interview recently where HC Sean Payton said Bo Nix had similar qualities to the person he’s opposing today, Josh Allen. It was high praise considering Josh Allen is one of the best players in the NFL. But Nix hasn’t disappointed his coach’s claims as he had a stellar rookie season throwing for over 3700 yards and registering 29 passing TD’s to just 12 interceptions. And the last number is the key as he threw 9 of those 12 INT’s in just four games. And ever since he started to get acclimated to the league, Denver has been on a tear as they’ve won five of their last seven games. The only two losses were in OT to the Bengals and by one score to the Chargers.

The Bills on the other hand have absorbed playoff failure time and time again. Under Josh Allen, the Bills are 5-5 in the playoffs. And it hasn’t been his fault, necessarily, on why they find ways to lose. Allen has a 21 to 4 touchdown to interception ratio in the playoffs. But it’s always something with Sean McDermott’s team. Last season was setup perfectly for them, bringing the Chiefs to Buffalo in the Divisional Round. However, they still found a way to lose. Fitting the narrative that the weight of the playoffs often consumes this team.

My biggest concern this year is the lack of weapons at Allen’s disposal. However, the good news is the Broncos can be exposed in the passing game without using the WR’s. Denver allows the 5th most receiving yards to RB’s and the 2nd most receiving TD’s. And DVOA has them as the 31st ranked pass D against backs. So watchout for a big game from James Cook. I also think this is a good spot for Allen. Denver thrives on creating pressure at the line and he’s one of the best at alluding it.

Additionally, the way to attack Buffalo is on the ground as the air as they rank 28th versus WR1 and 29th versus WR2 according to DVOA. But I just can’t trust a rookie QB enough to put my money behind them in a game where he will be relied on to make big plays. Denver will keep it close for a while but Buffalo pulls away late and covers the number.

PROP BETS: James Cook over 1.5 receptions (-110 DK). The Broncos are so good against the pass on the perimeter that you have to check down to your outlets. Plus they love to send pressure, sending the blitz 29.5% (7th in league), that we could see two RB packages that allow one of them to get free in coverage.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES –5 vs GREEN BAY PACKERS

First off, this may come with some bias. So tread carefully and tail if you believe what I’m saying. But if you’ve followed me this year, I’m very reluctant to bet on the Birds. And when I do, I’ve been on the right side.

To me, the difference in this game is the Eagles defense. They are the #1 ranked unit as far as yards per game and the second-best team in points per game. The Packers are without their one receiver that can stretch defenses, as Christian Watson is out with an injured knee. This will allow the Eagles to stack the box and try to control the Packers running game. Which is the strength of this team.

We’ve also know the Packers are just 1-5 against NFC playoff teams with their lone win against the Rams. And now they’re dealing with a potential injury to their best defender (outside of Xavier McKinney) in Quay Walker. While Green Bay was the surprise team last year, I don’t see them having enough bullets in the chamber to threaten the Eagles D.

PROP BETS: Saquon Barkley over 20.5 rushing attempts (-110 DK). Jalen Hurts is returning from a concussion so I expect most of the RPO’s to go to Barkley. The other thing is, I see the Eagles having a lead and trying to bleed the clock by running Saquon.

TAMPA BAY BUCS -3 vs WASHINGTON COMMANDERS

We have another matchup of teams that met way back in Week 1. Whatever we can glean from that game, is likely moot for this one. Both teams are much different then they were in September. Jayden Daniels ended up with the 4th best QBR in the NFL. But his WBR of 35.7 in Week 1 was his 3rd worst total of the season. His progress is a huge reason why Washington is seeded 6th and finished with 12 wins. As for Tampa, they look different than what they were in September mainly because of their offensive adjustments. After losing Chris Godwin, this team went into young mode and focused on growing their young WR corps, like Jalen McMillan, and shifting their primary RB from Rachaad White to rookie Bucky Irving.

The reason why I lean towards the home team is because of Todd Bowles ability to confuse and frustrate QB’s. He has made a living on that and will try to show young Jayden Daniels a litany of looks he hasn’t yet seen. And Washington thrived against lesser competition but was just 1-4 against playoff teams, including 0-3 on the road.

PROP BETS: Bucky Irving over 88.5 rushing yards (-110 DK). Washington was 26th in run defense DVOA. And they allowed the 3rd most rushing yards per game. If they decide to stack the box, Baker will shred them. I think they play an aggressive D that tries to create havoc and will leave holes for big plays with Irving.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS -2.5 at LA RAMS

I’m riding on the Vikings in this one as they were the better team all season. The Lions exposed QB Sam Darnold last week as he played his worst game of the season while facing intense pressure all evening. But the throws that he missed can be coached up. And the Vikings were in the game until midway through the 3rd quarter. While I do think Minnesota is slightly overrated, they are a better offensive team and defensive team than the Rams.

DEFENSE:

Minnesota: 5th in ppg (19.5),16th in yards per game (335.4), 2nd in DVOA

LA Rams: 17th in ppg (22.7), 26th in yards per game (353.1), 26th in DVOA

OFFENSE:

Minnesota: 9th in ppg (25.6), 12th in yards per game (349.4), 15th in DVOA

LA Rams: 20th in ppg (21.6), 15th in yards per game (331.4), 10th in DVOA

In all those stats, the Rams only have an edge in offensive DVOA, and it’s by the slightest of margins. While Stafford is the better QB, the Vikings are the overall better team and I see them playing inspired ball following their tough loss in Detroit and advancing to the Divisional Round with a win in LA, or Arizona against LA.

Now that you finished reading the NFL BETS & SURVIVOR POOL PICKS article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.