daily fantasy baseball

Welcome to the Friday, July 30th edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!

If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather to walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!

Main Slate Breakdown

Welcome into Friday’s MLB DFS Picks and Pivots 15 game slate where the big news of the day is that is MLB Trade Deadline day and that means chaos likely up to and including 4 PM EST.

This means being diligent in watching lineups, understanding who has been dealt and from a DFS perspective, not falling in love with your early builds too much because the news of the day could change how we attack it drastically.

When we step back and look at this slate, what really fascinated me was how soft the pricing felt and how easy it seemed at first blush to pay up for arms without sacrificing my bats.

Now – you guys that have been around Picks and Pivots for a while now that I never look at plays in isolation – my goal is always to look at players and price points within a roster build to understand what is possible and today, with how cheap the bats seem, I am starting my pitcher pool up top.

That all starts with Lance Lynn ($10.3K) who on paper gets a really strong match-up against the right-handed heavy Cleveland Indians. The Indians are projected to roll out 5 RHB tonight and with Lynn having significant splits (33% K rate to RHB versus 22% versus LHB) – this would seem like the ideal spot to attack.

Over the last 30 days, no team in baseball has struck out more than the Indians, with a 26.4% K rate and this projected line-up overall has a 27.4% K rate against RHP over the last month – with three hitters (Bradley, Zimmer, and Franmil) all sporting 33% or higher K rates on their own.

The other $10K arm on this slate is Corbin Burnes ($10.2K) who gets a road start against the depleted Braves lineup in Atlanta. Burnes continues to be a high ceiling K SP1 who gets deep into games consistently and has double-digit K upside every time he takes the mound.

Not only does he have a massive 37% K rate on the year but he has held hitters on both sides of the plate under .070 ISO and uses his 50% ground ball rate on the back of his cutter to drive a 20.4% soft contact rate which is tied with the aforementioned Lynn for 6th in all of baseball.

Now while these two arms have different profiles, their ability to drive 30%+ K upside while leading the league in soft contact allowed gives you this floor/ceiling combination that you have come to expect from $10K aces on DraftKings but since the sticky stuff crackdown, we have rarely seen play out.

That narrative has been prevalent in MLB DFS circles for weeks now and we talk about it seemingly every day in our Win Daily Sports Discord but I would counter that this “don’t pay for arms” narrative is proving to be more sizzle than steak. Look back at last night – the winning builds seemingly all went with a Montas/Musgrove “double ace” type build and while it was a smaller slate, the simple fact these arms built a 75 point DK foundation – is what drove cash lines to be so high and I could see a similar outlook this evening.

Going with both Lynn/Burnes is going to leave you with $3.7K per batter for the rest of your build, and frankly, that is more than enough to feel good about your lineups.

What really excited me about this double-ace approach is that I can head to Toronto and get my favorite stack on the slate alongside them. Nope – not the 6+ IRT of the Blue Jays – I want all the Kansas City Royals action against RHP Ross Stripling.

If you look at the splits for Stripling by month, you see a story unfolding where the wheels have fallen off and the progression is steady and consistent. In every single month, his hard contact rate allowed has increased from 25% to 30% to 34% now in July and with it, his fly ball rate has climbed from 42% to 45% to 50% in the month of July.

If you look at his last three starts, two in which he gave up 10 ER and 5 HR’s in just 4 innings before a strong starts against the Mets – you see an approach change that hitters have jumped on.

Through the end of June, Stripling was using his curveball and slider nearly 35% of the time to play off his four-seam fastball. However in his last three starts specifically, we have seen a massive change where Stripling has all but abandoned the curve and now that 35% usage for the duo was down to about 25% and in its place was a heavier reliance on his fastball.

Well in those two bad outings – that fastball was hammered – as 4 of the 5 HR’s came off that pitch with a 50% and 100% hard contact rate allowed in those two outings. Against the Mets, that fastball generated essentially no hard contact but the same over-reliance was still there and the curveball was thrown just 6 times.

The Royals are a team that absolutely hammers the low-velocity fastball from right-handed pitchers up and down the line-up and if you are telling me that this is what Stripling is going to throw nearly 60% of the time with 10+ MPH winds blowing out – I AM HERE FOR IT.

Whit Merrifield (.281 ISO and 47% HC rate), Carlos Santana (.448 ISO and 44% HC rate), Salvador Perez (.300 ISO and 38% HC rate), Jorge Soler (.471 ISO and 43% HC rate) and Andrew Benintendi (team-high 365-foot average distance traveled and just an 8% whiff rate.

For all the focus that will likely be on the Jays tonight – I would argue the better bang for your buck is on the other side of this game with the Royals.

Now – for the secondary stack – this one, may not seem obvious but this is talent versus price discussion – and so can we talk about the Astros pricing versus Kevin Gausman?

Listen I get Gausman has been good this year but let’s not pretend like we all were stacking against “Gas Can” prior to his career resurrection in San Fran!

Three of his last five starts have been for less than 10 DK points and his negative outing last time out against Pittsburgh where he gave up 8 hits and 6 runs in just 4 innings was a reminder of the old Gas Can days!

In the last 30 days, the lefties have hit him hard – with a .378 ISO mark and 50% hard contact rate allowed while even the RHB have a 40.5% HC rate! The two lefties in Michael Brantley and Kyle Tucker are priced at $3K and $3.5K respectively and give you incredible salary relief to attack this recent skid from Gausman.

Gausman is basically a two-pitch pitcher against lefties with a 94 MPH fastball and a splitter that account for 80-85% of his pitch mix and both Astros lefties profile extremely well against it with Brantley having a .266 ISO against the FB and .280 ISO against the splitter while Tucker stands out with a team-high .343 ISO against the fastball velocity!

Now flip to the other side of the plate and let’s not overlook the right-handed batters especially Carlos Correa. Correa has a .340 ISO and a team-high 61% HC rate against the fastball of this velocity with an average distance traveled of 363 feet and even against the splitter – you get a .214 ISO and near 40% HC rate!

Since the All-Star break, Gausman has simply been ineffective and if you dig deeper you will see that batters are simply making him work and not chasing pitches outside the zone. On the season, Gausman has a 35% swing rate outside the zone which is driving his 16% SS rate – but over the last two starts, the Dodgers and Pirates simply didn’t bite and his 25% swing rate outside the zone mirrors the just 7% SS rate.

The Astros are a patient team and one that does not K much against RHP – much like the Pirates and Dodgers – in fact, all three teams rank in the bottom 8 in K rate in 2021 versus RHP with the Astros being the hardest team to K with right-handed arms. If you thought the last two starts were grinds for Gas Can – wait until tonight’s late-night hammer.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up

This Friday Night MLB DFS Picks and Pivots slate is going to be wild with the MLB Trade Deadline and frankly, we need to be patient and react. I mean goodness, I just gave you a whole breakdown and didn’t even mention it’s Jon Lester Day!

Today – get your butts in Discord – because things will change and we need to talk through it! Let’s rock fam!

Good luck tonight all! Let’s keep that hot streak rolling! Come join the Win Daily Sports Team – grab a Gold Membership and take advantage of all the tools, articles, and expert coaching we can give you to make you a consistent winner in DFS.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Welcome to the Thursday, July 29th edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!

If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather to walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!

Early Slate Breakdown

We get our Thursday going with another split slate MLB DFS Picks and Pivots afternoon with a 6 (maybe 5) game slate that begins at noon and the biggest question mark is if we see the Nationals/Phillies game even play due to COVID outbreaks on the Nationals.

For the sake of simplicity – let’s assume this game does not play and honestly, even if it does, it is going to be a 7 inning doubleheader so it is likely the only interest we would have is on the pitchers if Mad Max or Zack Wheeler takes the mound and with rain expected to impact both games, maybe crossing this game off is the best course of action anyway.

The other tricky party here once again is the timing of these games – as the slate starts at 12:05 PM EST and three of the games on this slate start after 2 PM EST. We saw this yesterday where 50% of the games on the early slate did not have confirmed lineups before lock and this could very well be the case again today.

My recommendation once again then is to either fully front load or back load your stacks to give you maximum flexibilty. Stacking the Mets for example at 12:10 PM EST with the Dodgers at 3:45 PM EST is not ideal because you will have half your lineup locked in and if the late lineup doesn’t work as you planned, you are going to scramble to suboptimal stacking options.

Now back to the Mets – because honestly, I think this is where the slate starts for me and will drive much of my decision-making. The match-up against LHP Drew Smyly is one I want to attack as Smyly ranks in the bottom 10 of all Major League arms with at least 80 IP this season in hard contact allowed, fly-ball rate and HR/9 rate.

What is interesting about Smyly is that his splits are well – not really splits at all – he gives up .200+ ISO marks to both sides of the plate with nearly identical 45% hard contact rates and 40-43% fly ball rates. Even his pitch types are the same as he relies on a fastball/curveball mix nearly 90% of the time no matter which side of the plate is up.

While the right-handed batters may be the obvious spots to attack with James McCann, Pete Alonso and JD Davis – do NOT overlook the lefties for the Mets here as this is where I think you can get a massive advantage in GPP’s.

Smyly actually has a higher HR/9 rate to LHB this season at 2.3 versus 1.5 to RHB and the Mets lefties all hit left-handed pitching well, especially the pitch type on Smyly. Against the curveball, Brandon Nimmo (.429), Jeff McNeil (.235) and Michael Conforto (.190) all have strong ISO marks and against the low-velocity fastball, Nimmo (.571) and Conforto (.200) both stand out as great L/L plays.

If we are stacking the Mets – then I need to stay with early stacks and so locking in the Yankees and going full New Yawk on this early slate maybe my best route. Now, I am a believer in the talent of Luis Patino as a pitcher but I also trust the data and what it tells me is that he is giving up lots of loud contact and we saw that against the Indians where left-handed batters had a 50% HC rate and RHB had a 45% HC rate with both sides of the plate showing elevated fly ball rates.

Patino is a two-pitch arm, featuring a high-velocity fastball and slider with the slider being the big swing and miss offering. If you look at batted ball profiles, Aaron Judge stands out as one of the best plays on this slate. Against the high-velocity fastball, Judge has a .522 ISO and 48% HC rate, and against the slider his .227 ISO/44% HC rate lead the team.

We will need to wait and see what this Yankees lineup looks like and if Joey Gallo is able to suit up – but the more I look at the top of this Yankee line-up with it being right-handed heavy against a pitcher who has hard contact and fly ball tendencies – we could see the Yankees get to the youngster with some early long balls.

Working our way backward into the arms – I think you simply NEED to anchor to one top-end arm as your SP1 due to the strong options with Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodon up top as Adam Strangis laid out in Starting Rotation.

Going down for our SP2 is where I plan to attack today and I think Alec Mills ($6.3K) is an intriguing case for the Cubs against the Reds in Wrigley with the wind blowing in.

Yes I know Joey Votto is on some Barry Bonds type run right now but as our resident Reds expert in Discord, Jimmy, always says – use arms against the Reds on the getaway day!

Mills just faced the Reds in Cincinnati on July 2nd, striking out 9 Reds on his way to a 24 DK point outing and if you look at his pitch mix, while the sinker was still his primary offering – nearly 40% of the time – his slider and changeup were used nearly the same amount and they generated a 50% whiff rate.

Mills really feasted on the K-heavy bottom of the Reds order and with Aristedes Aquino and his 47% K rate against RHB now in the heart of the order, I think if he can avoid Votto, there is a path once again to a ceiling game. Over the last 30 days – 7 of the 8 Reds projected hitters have a 25% or higher K rate against RHP while also sporting a GB rate that is 5% higher than the fly ball rate. Against a sinkerballer with the wind blowing in – I love this spot for Mills today as a low-owned SP2.

Main Slate Overview

The 5 game MLB DFS Picks and Pivots Main Slate is one that is loaded with rain issues with Milwaukee/Pittsburgh and Toronto/Boston being the biggest risk areas tonight and on a 5 game slate, that could have massive ramifications.

Now add on the fact that pitching is straight gross and you almost get backed into this build where you land on Montas/Musgrove as your two pitchers on DK by default.

What it likely means is you need some cheaper stacks and this is where the Orioles stand out to me against Casey Mize and a terrible Tigers bullpen. Attacking Mize has been simple this year – you want every and all lefties as Mize has a massive .232 ISO and 51% HC rate against LHB this season which makes Cedric Mullins and DJ Stewart primary plays for me on this slate.

However, the place I really want to plant my flag tonight is in the late-night hammer – the San Diego Padres – against LHP Kyle Freeland. If you just look at the talent of the bats on this stack, it is hard to argue for me that the Padres are the best pure hitting stack on the slate ESPECIALLY if the Blue Jays game has risk.

Against a lefty who has surrendered a .200 ISO and 42% HC rate, this is the spot you load up on Padres and it all starts with Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr.

The nice part about this stack is how you can really attack the mid-range to build around the two big bats as Adam Frazier ($3.4K), Austin Nola ($3.2K) and Jurickson Profar ($2.3K) give you cheap options to round out your stack with a true wrap-around build with Nola/Profar at the bottom before you move to the top 3 in Frazier/Machado/Tatis.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up

Looking at these two MLB DFS slates today – the Early Slate has the better build paths but the main slate has the better contest options, unfortunately. On both slates – my goal is to avoid uncertainty – on the early slate that means the Nationals and on the Main it means avoiding the rain which really limits your player pool but I think it is easily doable.

Good luck tonight all! Let’s keep that hot streak rolling! Come join the Win Daily Sports Team – grab a Gold Membership and take advantage of all the tools, articles, and expert coaching we can give you to make you a consistent winner in DFS.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Welcome to the Wednesday, July 28th edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!

If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather to walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!

Early Slate Breakdown

Welcome into a split slate Wednesday of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we kick the day off with a 4 game day slate that is super intriguing for GPP play.

We actually have a strong pitching slate but in all cases, the arms like Sean Manaea, Blake Snell, and Yusei Kikuchi are met with brutal match-ups that frankly, I doubt we would pick on if this were a larger slate. The flip side of this, specifically with Manaea and Kikuchi are that they come into this game in elite form as the only two arms with 30%+ K rates over the last month and while the match-ups are not ideal, they are the two arms on this slate that have the ceiling we are chasing in MLB DFS GPP play.

If you guys have played these daytime small slates with me this year you know I focus far more on strategy than pure best plays when we get to these types of slates and today is no different.

One thing I noticed about today is the start times of the games. Yes – the start times.

St. Louis/Cleveland and Detroit/Minnesota games start at 1:10 PM EST while the Houston/Seattle and Oakland/San Diego do not start until 3:40 and 4:10 PM EST respectively.

I bring that up because that 3-hour difference likely means we go to lock without lineups for 50% of the slate. Now, maybe we get lucky and that is not the case but if we play out that scenario I think as far as bats are concerned we either front load or back load our builds.

We know in daytime games the lineups can look funky – and so if you go into lock stacking the Padres as an example and all of a sudden Fernando Tatis Jr. gets a day off – well, your core play in your stack is now firmly on the bench and you are left scrambling.

So one strategy today could be to simply front-load the bats we have confirmed lineups for and then use the arms like Kikuchi, Snell and Manaea.

The Detroit Tigers are the obvious early stack in my mind against our favorite – LHP JA Happ. Over the last 30 days has surrendered a .308 ISO and 48% HC rate to right-handed batters and the Tigers will offer us a line-up with likely 8 right-handed hitters to choose from.

Eric Haase is the main play for me from Detroit as over the last month he is straight hammering LHP to the tune of a .652 ISO and only a 6% soft contact rate. His C/OF eligibility gives you maximum flexibility on DraftKings as well.

The other stack early that I love for GPP play is the St. Louis Cardinals against RHP Zach Plesac. One of the reasons I love this spot is that Plesac is a reverse splits arm, giving up more power to RHB (.217 ISO on the season) and over the last 30 days, specifically his .300 ISO and 56% hard contact rate to right-handed batters jump off the page.

On a smaller slate like this, the non-traditional splits may lead the Cardinals to be an under-owned difference-making stack where we can attack Plesac’s 2 HR/9 mark against RHB this season.

Over the last month, Plesac has relied essentially on a two-pitch mix of fastball and slider to RHB nearly 85% of the time and both pitches have been hit to the tune of a 300+ ISO mark and a 60% hard contact rate.

Stacking up the right-handed Cardinals bats on this slate could pay off in a big-time way and get the slate started for the Win Daily family early as we cement our spots up top the leaderboards and dare the field to catch us!

Main Slate Overview

The 11 game MLB DFS Picks and Pivots Main Slate includes a 7 inning tail end double-header of the Jays/Sox and once again we actually have strong pitching options up top with Walker Buehler and Zack Wheeler sitting as the primary spend ups.

While we have been hesitant lately to pay up for double aces, I think this slate is going to play differently and my initial lean is to lock in both who I believe have 30+ DK point type ceilings today.

Two of Buehler’s last five starts have come against the Giants, where he has racked up 29 and 31 DK points with 9 and 7 K’s in those outings.

Wheeler meanwhile will face a watered-down Nationals lineup with Trea Turner now out and one that is also going to have 5 of the 8 batters hitting from the right side which plays into Wheeler’s splits with a 32% K rate to RHB over the last month.

The flip side of this slate is that we have tons of AWFUL arms and that means another night of offensive fireworks is likely – so can we pair double aces with high upside stacks? I believe we can!

The two stacks that stand out to me are the White Sox against LHP Kris Bubic who has given up a massive .290 ISO and 56% HC rate to RHB the last month and the Phillies against LHP Patrick Corbin who has a .220 ISO and 45% HC rate to RHB on the year.

Now, you may not think of those teams as value but we actually have a significant amount of punts within these two high-powered stacks that open up the path to double aces.

The White Sox are simply too cheap overall – we have five batters in the projected line-up under $3K with Eloy Jimenez and Andrew Vaughn at $2.8K and the bottom of the order stack with Hamilton/Mendick and punt catcher Seby Zavala at $2.2K-$2.3K each. Flip this to the Philly side and while you don’t have as much pure punt value, we do have Luke Williams at $2.1K with 2B/OF eligibility.

I bring this up because, with so many cheap options, you have the ability to go high/low with these stacks to attack the arms we want to stack against without having to compromise on arms. I simply love this path today!

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up

We have two slates of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots goodness today and honestly, it’s nice to have real pitching for once and I plan to take full advantage by anchoring today to high K arms on both slates while using the value we have across the board to attach high powered offenses against bad opposing arms!

Good luck tonight all! Let’s keep that hot streak rolling! Come join the Win Daily Sports Team – grab a Gold Membership and take advantage of all the tools, articles, and expert coaching we can give you to make you a consistent winner in DFS.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Welcome to the Tuesday, July 27th edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!

If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather to walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!

Main Slate Breakdown – Pitching

Welcome into a full 15 game MLB DFS Picks and Pivots slate where once again we have a slate without obvious pitching options – seriously, where did all the aces go?

It seems like every night, the pitching options at best get you “solid games” – maybe 20-25 DK points but we are far removed from seeing aces routinely drop 30+ DK point ceiling games that can help set a cash line foundation.

However, tonight does afford us the ability to pay up for elite K arms in strong recent form with both Lance McCullers Jr. and Robbie Ray who are over $10K on DraftKings and ranks 2nd and 3rd respectively in K rate over the last 30 days behind only Gerrit Cole.

McCullers ($10.4K) also ranks 2nd in MLB during the last 30 days in CSW rate at 33.6%, ranks 3rd in GB rate at 56%, and gets the best match-up of these high-end arms against Seattle who is 2nd in baseball the last month with a 26.6% K rate.

Five of the last eleven right-handed arms to face the Mariners since the start of July have gone for 20+ DK points and while Luis Garcia struggled last night, he still struck out 9 batters and we have actually seen other recent starters (Montas – 10) and Taillon (9) have similar K upside in this spot.

The last time Brad Keller ($5.9K) was on the mound, we featured him here in Picks and Pivots against the Brewers because we noticed a massive shift in his pitch mix, with a new found reliance on his slider. Prior to his July starts, Keller had thrown the slider just 31% but has thrown it just under 50% of the time in his last three starts and it has coincided with his three best outings – 19.5, 20.2 and 28.5 DK points.

The price moved up to $6.9K last start in which Keller went out and struck out 6 Brewers and yet today – after this recent run, his price actually dropped down to $5.9K on DraftKings – huh?

Keller ranks in the top 5 in baseball the last 30 days in ground ball rate, so he is not only getting swings and misses but he is driving tons of weak contact to both sides of the plate on top of it. Keller is using that slider to both sides of the plate but relying on it a little more against lefties which could work out nicely tonight against a White Sox team projected to have 5 LHB in the line-up.

The White Sox have one of the highest implied run totals on the slate at 5.2 – which likely only serves to keep folks off Keller here and likely gives us another chance to use Keller as a high upside SP2 before people realize how he has reinvented himself.

Oh also – it is Brad Keller’s birthday today. Just sayin’.

Main Slate Overview – Hitting

The bats are plentiful once again and so we need to be very strategic in how and where we plant our flags with stacks and liket most night it will start with a Toronto Blue Jays line-up with a near 6 IRT in Fenway Park against Garret Richards.

We have talked at length about Richards being vocal opposition to the pitching rule changes and he has worked to re-invent himself on the fly post sticky stuff crackdown. Over the last 30 days however, we see reasons to continue to attack Richards who has a massive .306 ISO and 46% HC rate allowed to right-handed batters.

The Blue Jays – have a few good right-handed batters – FYI.

Against right-handed hitters, Richards is relying basically on a two pitch mix of fastball/slider that accounts for 70% of his offerings the last 30 days. The issue is, batters are hitting that fastball velocity at a .600 ISO and 47% HC rate and the slider is not much better at .375 ISO and 60% HC rate!

Against a 94+MPH fastball, well – the Jays right-handers all feast on it with George Springer jumping off the page with a .813 ISO and 46% HC rate but all of Vlad Jr., Marcus Semien, Bo Bichette and Teoscar Hernandez have .200+ ISO marks and 45% HC rates as well!

Against the slider, it is Springer/Vladdy once again at the top but you also see Lourdes Gurriel and Randal Grichuk pop with 300+ ISO marks against that pitch type.

Basically – this stack is the nuts again today like it seemingly is every day and guess what, using Keller at SP2 makes them incredibly easy to afford.

The other spot that jumps out to me today is the Cincinnati Reds left-handed batters against Adbert Alzolay in Wrigley Field. Over the last 30 days, the metrics for Alzolay against LHB are stunningly bad with a .500 ISO and 58% HC rate and no pitcher in baseball during that time has a higher HR/RB rate than the Cubs righty.

Alzolay is relying on a 3 pitch mix to lefties- fastbal, slider and sinker which accounts for 75% of his pitch arsenal against lefthanded batters and well, not a single one has lower than a .600 ISO mark with the fastball and sinker generating 75% and 88% hard contact rates. Remember when I said his mterics were stunningly bad? Yeah, this is what I meant.

The lefties are the priority – Jessie Winker, Tyler Naquin, Tucker Barnhart at Catcher and even Joey Votto who has homered in three straight games. It is hot, humid and the wind is blowing out at Wrigley – sorry Alzolay but you are in some serious trouble today!

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up

We have a massive 15 game MLB DFS Picks and Pivots slate and once again the pitching options are going to force our hand a bit, however I think with a key SP2 option – we can navigate this slate with ease, allowing us to anchor to one high end arm and two high powered offensive stacks!

Good luck tonight all! Let’s keep that hot streak rolling! Come join the Win Daily Sports Team – grab a Gold Membership and take advantage of all the tools, articles, and expert coaching we can give you to make you a consistent winner in DFS.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Welcome to the Monday, July 26th edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!

If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather to walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!

Main Slate Breakdown – Pitching

Welcome into a Monday MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we have 7 games to choose from, an all-clear day of weather, and just days before the MLB Trade Deadline which means a heightened awareness of roster moves that could impact our builds up to and even after lock.

Once again, the pitching options on this slate are weak and while it may seem like paying up for arms is a fool’s errand these days – if you look back at Sunday’s winning builds you saw “double aces” being a consistent winning strategy with Aaron Nola and either Trevor Williams or Yu Darvish.

On today’s slate, I would argue paying up for both arms is the best choice once again and it starts with Luis Garcia ($10.4K) against the Seattle Mariners.

Garcia is coming off his best two-game stretch, with 15 K’s in 11 innings, sporting a 37% K rate and a 19% swinging-strike rate. Over those two outings, Garcia has really altered his pitch mix, throwing his fastball just 38% of the time and ratcheting his cutter usage up to 32% which is a far cry from his season-long marks of 48% fastball usage and 19% cutter usage.

Garcia has thrown the cutter all year long to right-handed batters, but the last two games is throwing it over 45% to right-handed batters and even went to the pitch over 20% of the time last game against the lefties.

That cutter is one of the most dominant single pitches in baseball this season – and this is not me maxing poetic, the statistics are startling. Garcia has the highest swinging strike rate of any pitcher in baseball using the cutter, even higher than Corbin Burnes, and that pitch ranks among the top 5 in baseball in lowest opponent batting average alongside the deGrom slider and the Ohtani splitter.

When you start to see the difference in how the cutter reacts versus the fastball, you can understand why this has become such a dominant weapon for Garcia who will face a Mariners line-up with 4-5 right-handed batters in it, which plays to his K upside as RHB have a 31% K rate against him this season.

The other elite K arm on this slate is Shohei Ohtani ($9.2K) who after a slight hiccup in NY a few starts ago, was back to being dominant on the mound against Oakland where he struck out 8 batters on his way to 27 DK points.

Ohtani gets a starts against the Rockies in California and any time we get Colorado away from home, we have to look to attack them – especially considering they will likely have 4-5 RHB which gives Ohtani even more ceiling with his massive 38.6% K rate against right-handers.

Ohtani went to his slider nearly 21% of the time against Oakland, a massive spike in its usage – in fact, it was the 2nd highest mark for that pitch type this season for Ohtani and it baffled the Oakland bats and played exceptionally well off his fastball.

What is fascinating about the Ohtani pitching game logs is how different the pitch mix can be game to game and we saw that against Oakland where he went slider heavy, getting a 30%+ chase rate outside the zone, and conversely he used his splitter a season-low 8% of the time.

The fact Ohtani can use all these secondary pitches off his high 90’s fastball must be a horrendous guessing game for the opposing batters and with the Rockies outside of Coors, I think pairing Ohtani with Garcia gives you the best combination of K upside and ceiling for our MLB DFS picks.

UPDATE: Now normally, I tend to write my articles and provide updates in Discord but I wanted to make some updates mid-day today because ownership is well – wild. I love Shohei Ohtani as much as anyone but his ownership projections right now are pushing 70-80% which is a spot where you really have to question whether it is worth eating the chalk.

The issue is, the pivots um, well – don’t exist – at least not in any way you feel comfortable.

There is one arm I have interest in and frankly, I am surprised at his ownership and the fact that the opposite lineup looks to be the chalk stack and that is Matt Manning versus the Minnesota Twins.

Manning is coming off the best start in his young career, throwing 6 innings of 1 run ball with 4 K’s on his way to 19.9 DK points. Manning is a former first-round pick, a top 20 prospect in baseball, and a top 5 pitching prospect, and yet – he looks like someone the field is going to stack against as chalk.

Manning in the last two starts in which he has gone 11 innings with 7 K’s and just 3 runs allowed has made a significant change to his pitching approach – using a slider 20% of the time that he was not using at all through his first three outings at the big league level.

The guys at SB Nation did a really nice job of diving into this new approach for Manning and I highly recommend the read if you are interested. Manning is using the slider almost entirely against right-handed batters and it has generated a 50% whiff rate in each of the last two outings where he threw it 11 times in each game to RHB.

The Twins tonight are projected to have 5 right-handed bats in their lineup and every single one of them has a 40% or higher whiff rate against the slider from RHP so this could be a sneaky spot for Manning to build on his recent changes.

The fact Manning is sub 5% ownership and the Twins are projecting as chalk bats could be the ideal time to dig deeper and rock him as a punt SP2.

Main Slate Overview – Hitting

If we pivot to the bats, what stands out to me is a few stacks on DraftKings that offer us high/low salary points that make going double-aces an easy build type.

First up is the Chicago White Sox against LHP Mike Minor, who since last season has given up a .202 ISO, 43% fly-ball rate, and a 45% hard contact rate to right-handed batters.

The White Sox come loaded with right-handed power and will look to active Eloy Jimenez ($2.5K) who sits at a price point that is simply laughable and gives you the salary flexibility to go up and get the big bats like Tim Anderson and Jose Abreu.

Minor uses a low 90’s fastball and a slider over 60% of the time to right-handed bats and those two pitches are allowing a .235 ISO and 40%+ hard contact rate this season with Anderson, Abreu, Andrew Vaughn, and Adam Engel all sporting high ISO marks and HC rates against those pitch mix this season.

The White Sox have obvious high dollar bats in Abreu and Anderson over $5K but really – look at the rest of the line-up and all the value you can use with Vaughn/Eloy sitting in the mid $2K range and you have pure punts with Billy Hamilton and Danny Mendick to give you added salary flexibility.

The other stack that has similar high/low appeal is the late-night hammer of the Houston Astros against RHP Darren McCaughan, a low K, low-level prospect in the Mariners organization who relies on a sinkerball to get ground ball outs and does not miss bats.

Now, this kid went to Coors Field for his MLB debut and threw 5 hitless innings but man, this line is wonky – the kid had a 61% ground ball rate with a ZERO percent soft contact rate so you cannot even say he was getting weak contact off the bat. The 70% medium contact and the 1.6% swinging-strike rate is likely not a combination that will pay off long-term and the Astros set up nicely tonight as a way to attack the young arm.

McCaughan relies heavily on the sinker and there are some serious bats in this Houston lineup that do damage against it – none better than Yordan Alvarez ($5.4K) who has a massive .451 ISO, 58% hard contact rate, and an average distance traveled of over 325 feet. Alvarez may be my favorite bat on the entire slate and one that could be the late-night hammer with double-dong upside.

The other “big bat” that stands out is Kyle Tucker ($3.4K) as his batted ball profile sets up nicely against a ground ball arm. Tucker has a team-high 44% fly-ball rate against RHP and his 35% GB rate against sinkers is the lowest on the team – a key metric when looking at bats that can get the ball up in the air.

Just like the White Sox, we have value in this line-up with the 7-9 batters of Diaz, Straw and Maldonado all sitting at a near-minimum price and giving you the opportunity for a wrap-around stack with a road team and the guaranteed 9 innings of at-bats.

Aldemys Diaz ($2.1K) is a really intriguing swiss army knife on this slate, expected back off the IL tonight and giving you SS/OF eligibility on DK. Against the sinker, Diaz has a .217 ISO and 45% HC rate and with dual position eligibility – he becomes a core play for me tonight as I look to correlate Houston and Chicago together once we get lineups.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up

The key focus for me on this MLB DFS Picks and Pivots slate is getting the two high K ace level arms in Luis Garcia and Shohei Ohtani because frankly, every other arm seems overpriced and overly risky. However, as I outlined, with Ohtani standing out as massive chalk – I think there is a GPP path to moving off him and punting with our SP2 secret weapon!

All this revolves around a Astros/White Sox double stack that can be used with double aces or can be easily pivoted to all the biggest bats if you opt to drop down at SP2.

Good luck tonight all! Let’s keep that hot streak rolling! Come join the Win Daily Sports Team – grab a Gold Membership and take advantage of all the tools, articles, and expert coaching we can give you to make you a consistent winner in DFS.

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