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MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Monday, August 9

Joel Bartilotta 4 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Monday edition of Picks and Pivots. Tonight we have a much smaller than normal 5 game slate of MLB DFS on Draftkings to navigate through.

Main Slate Breakdown

It’s Jared and I’ll be filling in Brian over the next 2 weeks when I’m not writing Aces and Bases as he takes a much needed and well deserved vacation.

For such a small slate tonight, we have a pretty nice selection of pitchers to choose from. Something that we’ll need to keep an eye on tonight is the weather in the Chicago. The top pitching option on the night is Freddie Peralta ($10.5k) and as it stands right now, that game looks dicey with thunder storms throughout the night.

The match up for Peralta really speaks for itself tonight. He’s going up against a team that is striking out at an absurd rate right now. Over the past week the Cubs are striking out more than 35% of the time. With Peralta having elite strike out ability the rain is really the only thing that could potentially stop him tonight. If the games plays tonight, Peralta is my SP1. He’s going to be chalk but he’s chalk that we probably need to eat tonight.

SP2 is where it gets interesting tonight. There are really 3 different options that we can to. Luis Castillo ($10k) has been pitching lights out over the past month. Of the pitchers on the hill tonight, he trails only Peralta over the last month in K rate.

The one area of concern with Castillo is that he continues to walk a few too many batters. He has been better of late with the walks so my hope is that he’s figured that part of the game out, but still something we need to be concerned with.

The match up tonight is a solid one for Castillo. He’s facing a lineup that should only have 2 lefties in it with Zimmer and Ramirez. His K rate jumps to 28% against righties so there’s definitely some upside for Castillo tonight. Our next two options are the cheap options.

We have Jameson Taillon ($7.8k) and Joe Musgrove ($8.5k). My lean here is Musgrove as he gets the softer match up of the two. He’s facing a Marlins team that is coming out of Coors. While in Coors they had 2 games where they scored 4 runs or less. To do that in Coors says a lot about your offense.

Musgrove also has the better advanced metrics of the two. His K rate over the past 30 days is higher, his CSW is higher, his hard hit rate is lower and his xFIP is significantly lower. Metrics plus the softer match up has me locked in to Musgrove over Taillon tonight.

That said, Taillon has been very solid of late and is facing off against a team that doesn’t pair well with him. Taillon throws his fastball almost 50% of the time and it’s a pitch that Merrifield and Perez struggle with. If those 2 guys can be isolated, the Royals lineup is very weak.

Pitching wise we have a few different paths to go down. A lot of it comes down to the weather. If the weather in Chicago clears up, a case could be made to go double aces. However, if the weather causes the Brewers game to get cancelled I may end up fading Castillo and going with Taillon and Musgrove and loading up on bats.

For me tonight, the top stack seems pretty clear as the Chicago White Sox will face an opener in Beau Burrows who will then most likely turn it over to Charlie Barnes. Both guys have been giving up a ton of hard contact and it’s going to tough to fade the White Sox.

I’ll focus mostly on Barnes because Burrows should only go an inning or 2. Barnes is mostly a sinker ball pitcher. White Sox have a few guys on the team that really have a history of doing well against sinkers.

Luis Robert ($3.4k) is expected to be activated for the game tonight and he’s someone I want to target if he makes the lineup. One, he’s cheap and two he has great numbers against sinkers. Although it’s a small sample size he has .727 slugging % and .567 wOBA against them this year.

Andrew Vaughn ($3.1k) is another guy this year that has had success with a .545 slugging %. These 2 guys are key as they’ll open up salary for the likes of Yoan Moncada ($4.9k) and Jose Abreu ($6k).

The next place is where we get a little risky. I started Lucas Giolito last week and he absolutely burned me. I missed the cash line by a point thanks to Gio’s negative outing. Gio isn’t a bad pitcher, but he’s prone to bad outings which is holding him back form being a top pitching in the league.

He doesn’t get a very good match up tonight as the Twins are pretty good against Gio’s top two pitches. The Twins are one of the better teams in the league against the fastball. We’re going to need some savings and the guy I’m starting with is Luis Arraez ($3k).

On the year he has a .536 slugging % and .452 wOBA against fastballs and he’ll have the platoon advantage tonight. Other guys here I’ll also want to use are Jorge Polanco ($3.4k) and Miguel Sano ($3.4k). Using the Twins tonight will be far from a safe play. They have the chance to put up a goose egg. But if they go off, they should be under owned and set us apart from the masses.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up

Pitching tonight will be focused on the likes of Peralta, Musgrove, Castillo, and Taillon. We can either go double aces, 1 ace plus 1 mid, or go both mids. All seem to be viable paths tonight. I’ll be centering my stacks around the White Sox as they have a great match up.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

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4 years ago 0 comments

MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Sunday Funday – 08/08

Joel Bartilotta 4 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Sunday Funday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a nice sized 10 game main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.

My goal today will be to walk you through my 3 favorite pitchers and 3 favorite stacks on the day. We have a great slate lined up with solid options in both.

Let’s dig in to today’s slates!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Lance McCullers ($9.8k) vs. Minnesota Twins – McCullers has been on absolute fire over the past month. Over the last 30 days he has an elite 34% K rate and just a 2.53 xFIP. During that stretch he’s had a couple of really tough opponents in the Dodgers and White Sox.

Today he gets to take on a team that’s been struggling over the past week. The Twins have been striking out more than 28% of the time over the past week with limited power. The lineup he’s expected to face today has a 24% K rate on the year to righties. Look for McCullers to continue his string of solid outings.

Hyun Jin Ryu ($9.3k) vs. Boston Red Sox – Ryu gets to take on a Red Sox lineup today that will be without JD Martinez. That’s a huge positive for Ryu as it takes out a big lefty smasher from the lineup. After a little of a stretch where Ryu struggled, he’s been really solid of late.

In 4 of his last 5 outings he’s gone for 39 or more FD points, with a 43 point effort against these same Red Sox. Ryu throws his cutter more than 25% of the time. If it’s on today, he should continue his string of solid outings.

The Red Sox as a whole have really struggled against cutters this season. Bogaerts, Renfro, and Dalbec have all performed poorly against this pitch year and those are the guys you’d normally want to use against a lefty.

Max Fried ($8k) vs. Washington Nationals – Max Fried is another guy that’s rolling right now. In 3 of his last 4 outings he’s dialed it up to 46 or more FD points. Over the last month he has a 27% K rate with a near 29% CSW.

The Nationals are a team that we’ll want to continue to attack on a daily basis as they are a watered team compared to a month ago. If Fried can navigate through Soto and Bell today he should have no problem exceeding value at his $8k price tag.

I also do like Wheeler today quite a bit. My only concern with him is that the Mets did show some signs of life in the ninth last night and they are battling for their playoff lives. They are a team that may be hungrier than normal and could get to Wheeler early.

MLB DFS: The Bats

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Taijuan Walker – As a Mets fan it really pains me to write the Phillies up as a top stack. But in DFS we need to push emotions aside and play the plays that make the most sense. The Phillies today make the most sense.

Walker was elite to start the season. So much that he was the Mets representative at the All Star game. It’s been a struggle for him since. Over the past month he has an xFIP sitting at 6.35. He has seen a regression in just about all the metrics.

With the Phillies bats being red hot and Walker struggling we have a possibility for a really big number from the Phillies today. My core will be built around Bryce Harper ($4.5k) who is on a heater right now. He has an OPS of 1.358 and wOBA of .539 over the past week. On the year he has a .337 ISO vs. righties. The other guys I’m going to build around him are Segura ($3.3k), Gregorius ($2.9k), and Miller ($2.2k).

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Jorge Lopez – Camden Yards in the dog days of summer vs. a bad pitcher and a struggling bullpen. The Rays check all the boxes as a great stack. Lopez is a pitcher that we like to target because of how much hard contact he gives up. On the year he’s given up a near 40% hard hit rate.

The match up today is not a good one for Lopez. He is sinker ball pitcher and the Rays are one of the best teams in baseball against the sinker. Lopez is throwing his sinker around 35% of the time this year and it’s been getting drilled. Batters have a 47% hard hit rate against it and .472 slugging %.

My main target here will be Austin Meadows ($3.8k) who has .643 slugging % vs. sinkers this year to go with a 49% hard hit rate. He’s been a little cold of late and this a big break out opportunity for him today. Brett Phillips ($2.1k) is another guy I’ll want to target here if he cracks the lineup. He’s just about min priced and has a .564 against sinkers this year. Kevin Cash, don’t mess this up for me again today. Play these 2 guys if you are reading this.

Atlanta Braves vs. Patrick Corbin – Corbin has been in peak form over the past 30 days. He’s given up 7 homers in just 22 innings of work. It takes a lot of hard work to give up that many homers in such a low amount of innings. Nearly 27% of his fly balls are leaving the park.

Today has the potential to be a really tough outing for Corbin. He’s facing a lineup that has 4 guys that have an ISO greater than .200 on the year against lefties. My favorite of the 4 is Soler ($3.3k) who is coming into the game hot.

Over the past week he has a 1.137 OPS and a .468 wOBA. He has 4 barrels and 3 homers over that stretch. A date with a lefty wouldn’t be the same if I didn’t mention Albies ($3.3k), Riley ($3.5k), and Swanson ($3.2k). The Braves today are not priced up for the match up.

Other offenses I really like today are the Blue Jays vs. batting practice pitcher Garrett Richards, the Kansas City Royals vs. Jon Lester, and the Cincinnati Reds vs. Bryce Wilson. All 3 are also primed to have big days.

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

Outside of the Yankees game today we should have clear skies. We have a lot of high powered offenses today facing off against pitchers they should do well against.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Saturday, August 07

Jared Levitt 4 years ago

written by Jared Levitt

Welcome to the Saturday edition of Picks and Pivots. Tonight we have a nice sized 11 game main slate of MLB DFS on Draftkings to navigate through.

Main Slate Breakdown

It’s Jared and I’ll be filling in Brian over the next 2 weeks when I’m not writing Aces and Bases as he takes a much needed and well deserved vacation.

Tonight’s slate brings us a whole slew of options on the mound ranging from the top all the way to middle range. We have 4 pitchers at or near $10k tonight and I’m going to be honest, outside of Julio Urias ($10.5k) I don’t like any of them.

Garcia ($10.3k) rarely goes long and if I’m paying top dollar for a pitcher I want to see them go deep to maximize their salary. Yu Darvish ($10.1k) has really struggled over the past month. I’m not paying that much for a pitcher that hasn’t reached 20 DK points in a month and a half.

Brandon Woodruff ($9.9k) has a tough match up. Burnes, who has greater K upside, only struck out 5 Giants last night. Giants aren’t a team I like attacking with pitching, especially at almost $10k. The two guys that have my focus tonight are Charlie Morton ($9.4k) against the Washington Nationals and Eli Morgan ($7.4k) against the Detroit Tigers.

Lets start with Morton. We want to chase ceilings in GPP’s with our pitchers. With Morton, I’m going to do that, but I also know that Morton gives us a pretty high floor. Over the past 2.5 months Morton has scored less than 15 DK points just twice.

I like that safety net, especially with how volatile pitching is these days. Over the past month Morton has been very solid. He has a 28% K rate with just a 3.64 xFIP. Look for him to continue his solid ways tonight.

I should preface this with saying that Eli Morgan is far from a safe pick. He’s my high risk/high reward pitcher tonight. In GPP’s we don’t play it safe and we definitely aren’t here. Eli Morgan has been pitching much better of late.

In his last 3 outings he faced 3 very tough teams in the Athletics, Astros, and Blue Jays and came away unscathed. He actually had his best outing of his career against the Blue Jays with 9 strike outs in 6 innings of work. Morgan gives us K upside.

On the year he has a 26% K rate but over the past month has really turned up a notch with a near 31% K rate. He’s facing a Tigers lineup tonight that has been struggling of late. Over the past week no team has struck out more than them. Far from safe, but a ton of upside for Morgan tonight.

One of the reasons I went with pitchers I did was because I want a piece of the Reds lineups tonight and they are expensive. The Reds have scored 17 runs so far in this series against the Pirates and with a match up tonight against Mitch Keller I don’t expect them to slow down.

Keller has not had a good campaign this year. His xFIP is sitting above 5.37 with just a 21% K rate. Keller’s splits are pretty neutral as he gives up power to both sides. I do want to focus on the lefties though as he strikes them out less and gives up a bit more hard contact.

Winker ($6.3k) and Votto ($6.1k) have both crushed righties this year with ISO’s over .300. They are expensive, but are set up to have a field day today against Keller. Rookie of the year candidate India ($5k) and Farmer ($4.2k) are also guys I want to get from this stack. They are both locked in at the plate and will surely be part of any offense the Reds have tonight.

So we have a ton of expensive hitters so far, how can we afford them? Enter the Cleveland Indians. Over the past 30 days Tyler Alexander has an xFIP approaching 7. He’s giving up a ton of hard contact at 43% and his fly ball rate is nearing 60%.

With Alexander we really want to grab some righties as that’s where his struggles are. He’s given up a .374 wOBA and .242 ISO to righties this year. That’s not good. While Rosario ($4.3k) is great, he’s going to be tough to fit in with some of the Reds we’ve taken. I’m focused on Myles Straw ($2.3k), Harold Ramirez ($2.5k), and Austin Hedges ($2.3k). They all have the platoon advantage and provide us a ton of salary relief that we’ll need tonight to fit in the explosive Reds lineup.

The final spot I’m looking to for offense tonight is in Coors with the Colorado Rockies. Jesus Luzardo’s biggest weakness is batters from the right side of the plate. His wOBA balloons up to .385 against them and DK did not price up the righties in this match up. Rodgers ($3.8k), Cron ($4.1k), and Diaz ($4k) are all mispriced for the environment and match up.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up

Tonight’s pitching has a bunch of land mines at the top tonight. I’m going to shy away from there and live with guys like Charlie Morton and Eli Morgan. Offense I’ll be looking to go with a hot Reds lineup and then sprinkle in some cheap Indians and Rockies.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Friday, August 06

Jared Levitt 4 years ago

written by Jared Levitt

Welcome to the Friday edition of Picks and Pivots. Today we have a full 14 game main slate of MLB DFS on Draftkings to navigate through.

Main Slate Breakdown

It’s Jared and I’ll be filling in Brian over the next 2 weeks when I’m not writing Aces and Bases as he takes a much needed and well deserved vacation.

We have a full slate of games tonight and with that we actually have some solid options for pitching. The first pitcher that I’m leading off with is German Marquez ($8.4k). Marquez continues to be an ace level pitcher who we get at a big discount due to his pitching environment.

We’re getting a pitcher in the mid $8k range who has scored less than 18 DK points only 3 times in the last 3 months. Marquez has dialed up the K’s a bit over the past 30 days with a 28% K rate. That’s up from his season long number of 25.7%.

The lineup that he’s going to face tonight will be almost entirely right handed, minus Chisholm. Marquez’s K rate jumps to 31% vs. righties compared to just 21% vs. lefties. There’s always risk in using a pitcher in Coor’s but this is Marquez’s home turf and he’s been lights out at home this year.

The other two pitchers I’m contemplating using today are Corbin Burnes ($10k) and Chris Bassitt ($9.8k). Both guys are priced around the same but I’m coming at them from different directions. Burnes is the pitcher with more elite strike out ability but he gets to take on a tough Giants lineup.

As Adam alluded to in the Starting Rotation today, the Giants are very good at hitting the cutter. With that being Burnes’ top pitch, it definitely creates some risk in using him as you’re paying top dollar for a pitcher that may have reduced K’s. That said, no pitcher on this slate has more strike out upside than Burnes.

For Bassitt, he doesn’t have anywhere near the strike out ability that Burnes has, but he gets the softer match up. Since the trade deadline their lineup has been anemic. They have nearly a 26% k rate over the past week with just 11 barrels and 54 hard hits. Add in that they’ve walked just 7 times and we have a team here that’s free swinging and impatient. Bassitt is set up to have a nice day today.

Now that we have pitching out of the way, let’ find us some bats. The first place I’m looking at is the Oakland Athletics facing off against Mike Foltynewicz. Folty has faced the A’s three times now this season and hasn’t really had a “blow up” game yet. It’s coming folks, join me the for the ride.

The A’s have progressively hit him harder as they see him more. The first outing, their hard hit rate was 31.6%. The second was 47.4%. And the third was 55.6%. In that third game they torched him for 3 solo home runs. In all 3 games against the A’s this year he had a LOB % greater than 83%.

Tonight’s the night where he has one of his blow up games. My main targets here will Olson ($5.3k), Laureano ($3.9k), and Lowrie ($3.7k). This is the middle of the A’s lineup and they are the ones that have the most power potential. If you want to get the savings Moreland ($2.8k) is extremely cheap and has had a lot of success against sinkers.

Another great spot for offense today will be the San Diego Padres vs. Caleb Smith. In Smith we have a pitcher who’s really struggling of late. Over the last month his xFIP is sitting right at 5.89. He’s just giving up a ton of hard contact and way too many fly balls.

While the Padres lineup is quite a bit weaker without Tatis, they have a bunch of guys in that lineup that make it still one of the top lineups in the league. The guys I want to focus on here will be batters from the right side as Smith’s fly ball rate sky rockets to almost 50% against them.

Righties will see a mix of low 90’s fastballs and sliders tonight. Both Machado ($5.6k) and Myers ($3.9k) have strong power numbers against both pitches. Pham ($4.2k) is also a batter that profiles extremely well tonight.

The final place I’ll look to for offense is the place that will give us the value. The Baltimore Orioles are an underrated team when it comes to facing lefties. On the year they have just a 21% K rate, 111 wRC+, and an ISO of .769. It’s supposed to be in the upper 80’s at game time tonight and when it gets warm in Baltimore, the ball flies.

To take advantage of Yarbrough we want to grab batters from the right side as his ISO is significantly higher against righties. Austin Hays ($2.5k), Mancini ($4.7k), and Mountcastle ($3.4k) all have ISO’s greater than .240 against lefties this year. Hays is my favorite of the bunch as he’ll provide us with more flexibility with our other bats. Urias ($2.7k), Santander ($2.3k), Franco ($2.7k), and Martin ($2k) are all in play too as they’ll have the platoon advantage and all under $3k.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up

With tonight being a full slate we’re back to having some pitching options. I’m going to be looking to Oakland and San Diego for my main bats tonight and then grab a couple of cheap O’s to complete my lineups.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Thursday – 08/05

Joel Bartilotta 4 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Thursday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a rather small 6 game main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.

As is what we’ve become accustomed to, tonight’s slate is void of any ace. The good, this means we can essentially grab almost any bat bad we want. The bad, it means we’ll have to really dig in to find a pitcher that will provide us a safety net while also providing upside.

Let’s dig in to today’s slates!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Touki Toussaint ($8.5k) vs. St. Louis Cardinals – Toussaint now has 3 starts under his belt for the year. Two very good ones, one very poor one. His poor start was his last outing and it was against a streaking Brewers team. When the Brewers are on, they are one of the toughest lineups to face so I’m going to cut Toussaint some slack.

Toussaint has historically been better against righties than lefties. Over the course of the last few years his K rate is significantly higher at 26.6% vs. just 21% against lefties. This year it’s over 30% to righties.

The lineup that he’s going to face tonight will be almost entirely righty with the exception of Carlson and Erdman. With pitching lacking tonight I want to go with the guys that have the most strikeout ability and Toussaint will bring us that. No pitcher is safe tonight and Toussaint is no exception.

Sonny Gray ($9.3k) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates – Over the past 30 days Gray has seen a mixed bag of results. His last outing was superb, striking out 7 Mets and only giving up 1 run in 6 innings of work. The outing prior he gave up 8 runs in just 3 innings with only 3 strike outs against the Cards.

Gray has been a bit unlucky over the past month as his BABIP is close to .400. With tonight’s match up against the Pirates we should land somewhat closer to the Mets outing than the Cards. The Pirates lineup is nothing to be intimidated by, especially with Frazier shipped out of town. Look for Gray to continue the momentum from his last start.

Framber Valdez ($9.7k) vs. Minnesota Twins – I will feel a lot more comfortable using Valdez if Donaldson sits again. It takes a righty out and gets another lefty in the lineup in Arraez. This would be a big win for Valdez as his K rate is almost 30% vs. lefties vs. just 21% for righties.

What I like the most about Valdez is that he provides us with somewhat of a floor. He hasn’t scored lower than 18 FD points all year, with only 2 outings under 20. With how volatile pitching has been this year, the floor is something we’ll need and want. While my early lean is to go with either Gray or Toussaint, the Twins lineup will dictate whether or not I play Valdez.

MLB DFS: The Bats

With brutal pitching comes a healthy amount of stacks. We have no shortage of viable stacks tonight.

Kansas City Royals vs. Dallas Keuchel – Over the past 30 days Keuchel has been a home run derby pitcher. He’s given up 8 in just 23 innings of work. That’s just an insane rate. A lot of is attributed to his bread and butter pitcher getting smoked this year.

Batters have a .559 slugging percentage and .414 wOBA against his sinker this year. The Royals have a handful of guys that have crushed sinkers this year. My core with the Royals will be built around Salvador Perez ($3.3k) who has a .466 slugging % and a 49% hard hit rate against sinkers this year with a whiff rate of less than 17%.

Other guys of interest here will be Whit Merrifield ($3.1k) and Michael Taylor ($2.2k) as they both have wOBA’s close .400 vs. the pitch.

Chicago White Sox vs. Daniel Lynch – In his first start after getting recalled from the minors we a saw a glimpse of why Lynch is a top pitching prospect for the Royals as he shut out the Tigers through 8. In his next outing we also saw a glimpse that he still needs some work to a reliable starter in the bigs.

He gets a very daunting task of facing one of the best teams vs. lefties in the White Sox. On the year they have .755 OPS and .328 wOBA. My main target here will be Jose Abreu ($3.4k) and his .303 ISO against lefties this year. The other 2 I’m looking at in this lineup that I’ll want to prioritize are Andrew Vaughn ($2.8k) and Cesar Hernandez ($3.1K).

Both guys have ISO’s approaching .300 against lefties on the year and line up fairly well with the Fastball, Slider, and Change up mix they’ll see tonight. White Sox were embarrassed by the Royals in front of the home fans last night. I expect them to return the favor with a big number tonight

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Triston McKenzie – McKenzie has gotten rocked in 2 of his last 3 outings. He gave up 5 ER and 2 homers vs. the Astros and 6 ER and 3 homers vs. White Sox. In between was a solid outing vs. the Rays.

The match up tonight is very similar to the match up that he had against the Astros and White Sox as both of those teams are heavy with right handed bats, just like the Blue Jays. McKenzie’s splits on the year show us he’s been way more susceptible to power from righties as his ISO is 80 points higher against them.

His hard hit rate jumps from 33% against lefties to a whopping 49% against righties. Vlad Guerrero ($4.6k) and George Springer ($4.2k) all have ISO’s greater than .360 on the year against righties. They will be chalky, but on a short slate like tonight we almost have to eat the inevitable chalk.

One way we can differentiate ourselves is by going with a 9,1,2 stack and use Kirk ($2.2k) who is near min priced tonight. After a little bit of a cold stretch with the bats, the Blue Jays are starting to heat up and I want to be along for the ride.

Another spot we can look at tonight to sprinkle in batters will be Cleveland vs. Stripling. Stripling is someone we can always rely on to give up at least one homer. The top of the Indians lineup with Rosario ($2.8K) and Zimmer ($2.2k) is very cheap and may help us afford the likes of Guerrero and Springer.

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

Pitching is going to give us heart burn tonight. I don’t think there’s anyway around it. There’s no clear cut ace and none of the pitchers really scream to us, “I’m safe”. Bats will be plenty as there will be a ton of desirable spots for offense.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Wednesday, August 04

Jared Levitt 4 years ago

written by Jared Levitt

Welcome to the Wednesday edition of Picks and Pivots. Today we have a nice sized 11 game main slate of MLB DFS on Draftkings to navigate through.

Main Slate Breakdown

It’s Jared and I’ll be filling in Brian over the next 2 weeks when I’m not writing Aces and Bases as he takes a much needed and well deserved vacation. We have 2 slates today but the article will be focused on the main slate.

Tonight should make for an intriguing evening as we have Max Scherzer ($9.1k) facing the Astros in his Dodgers premier. I’m going to be hands off tonight with Mad Max as this isn’t the match up that I want him in. The Astros have one of the best lineups in the business and even at a reduced price for Scherzer, the upside in value just won’t be there.

The ace I’m going to go with tonight is Lucas Giolito ($10.6k). I said it yesterday that the Royals aren’t normally a team to attack with pitching. But they are struggling mightily right now and lost Andrew Benintendi to a calf strain last night.

The Royals over the past week are striking out nearly 28% of the time and not putting much wood on the ball when they actually make contact as they have just 9 barrels. 2 of which came from Benintendi. Rostering Gio will make us want to have a bottle Rolaids sitting around as he’s been extremely inconsistent this year. He’s my guy though tonight because he still has elite K ability and he’s facing a team that’s struggling.

Where do we go next for pitching? Could we go to Coors field? I think I might! Rostering a pitcher in Coors is never a sure thing but we have a pitcher in Jon Gray ($7.2k) who has pitched well this season and has been able to navigate some tough matchups recently.

His last 4 outings have been against the Padres and Dodgers and hasn’t given up more than 2 runs in any of those contests. Over the past month he’s also seen an uptick in strike outs as his K rate is 24.4% vs. 21.7% for the year. He’s facing a lineup tonight that no longer has Rizzo, Baez, or Bryant. Outside of the Royals, no team has a lower wRC+ over the past week than the Cubs. Always a risk going to Coors with a pitcher, but Gray is on a roll and gets a soft match up here.

Now that pitching is out of the way, let’s find some bats. My favorite pitcher to attack is on the hill tonight in J.A. Happ and he’s facing a tough Braves lineup. One of the common missteps people make when facing a lefty is ignoring a guy like Freeman ($5.1k). Last night guys like Albies ($4.9k), Swanson ($4.2k), and Soler ($3.3k) all had ownership around 20% while Freeman was around 7%.

Guess who was the highest scoring of the bunch? Freeman. He outscored Albies, Riley, and Swanson combined. The match up tonight speaks for itself. Happ is a shell of his former self with an xFIP of 4.83 over the last month. He’s been especially bad against righties this year with a .270 ISO against and a 43% hard hit rate.

While I’m going to load up on the righties here, I’m going to make sure I include Freeman in my stack because he’ll go under owned in the match up and at some point, probably around inning 4 or 5, the game will be turned over to the Cards bullpen and Freeman will more than likely get a L/R match up.

With some of my Braves targets being on the high end of the salary scale I’ll want to find a stack that’s cheap and in a great match up. Look no farther than the Los Angeles Angels. As a whole, the Angles have been somewhat struggling but the match up tonight is just too juicy.

Kolby Allard has been downright awful over the past month. In his last 23 innings of work he’s surrendered 7 long balls and 13 barrels. If ever there was a pitcher that would waken bats up, it’s Allard. My hope is that Max Stassi ($3.3k) makes the lineup tonight as he’s been the Angels hottest hitter and has crushed lefties this year with a .216 ISO and .340 wOBA.

Phil Gosselin ($2.4k) is near min priced and should bat between Ohtani and Upton ($3.4k). Both Upton and Gosselin have wOBA’s over .340 this year against lefties. They are cheap and should be productive.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up

Tonight’s slate has a land mine waiting for us in Scherzer. While I love his price tonight, I just don’t want any part of facing a solid Astros lineup. I’d much rather face depleted lineups like the Royals and Cubs with my pitchers. Enjoy our J.A. Happ day folks. I promise, it will be even better than our Lester day yesterday!

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Tuesday – 08/03

Joel Bartilotta 4 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Tuesday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a massive 15 game main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.

To our surprise, we actually have some pitching options today. We have a couple of ace level pitchers hoping to rebound, but what I’m most excited about is some of the pitchers we’ll get to attack tonight.

Let’s dig in to today’s slates!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Zack Wheeler ($10.7k) vs. Washington Nationals – Wheeler gets a rematch against the Nats after a little bit of a shaky outing last go around. He struck out 5 in that one but also gave up 3 ER and took the loss. This time around he’s going to get a very different Nats team.

The majority of the “damage” done in that game came from Josh Harrison and Yan Gomes. They are gone though and this match up tonight for Wheeler should be a much easier one.

While his K rate has been down over the past month, he’s being doing a great job of really limiting hard contact as he’s giving up more soft contact than hard. Wheeler has also been a bit unlucky as his BABIP is at .360. Look for Wheeler to be the top pitcher on the slate tonight.

Dylan Cease ($8.3k) vs. Kansas City Royals – I normally don’t make it a habit of picking on the Royals as they are stingy team that doesn’t K much. In the past week only 7 teams have struck out at a higher rate than the Royals.

With the Royals starting to struggle a bit I want to see if we can attack them. In looking at how Cease matches up with the Royals, I think we can. Royals have a very righty bat heavy team. Cease throws his slider more than 40% of the time vs. righties.

Merrifield has a 47% GB rate to the pitch, Perez has a 43% whiff rate, and Dozer has a near 50% whiff rate. This is a solid spot for a pitcher that’s in pretty good form of late. Over the past 30 days Cease has a near 30% K rate. If his slider is on tonight he’s going to give us a ton of upside and value.

Sean Manaea ($10k) vs. San Diego Padres – This is my high risk/high reward pitching pick tonight. Of all the pitchers on the hill tonight no pitcher has a higher K rate over the past 30 days than Manaea. It’s sitting at 36.5%.

Manaea is in peak form and he’s getting a Padres lineup that will be without Tatis tonight. The Padres still have a bunch of quality bats, but without Tatis they are nowhere near as scary.

Manaea is mostly a sinker ball pitcher. If we look at the Padres projected lineup, only Machada and Profar have had real success against the pitch. He faced this team a week ago and was lights out. I see no reason he can’t do it again.

MLB DFS: The Bats

San Francisco Giants vs. Madison Bumgarner – I’m thankful we’re getting the Giants vs. Madbum on a full slate because it should depress ownership. We typically see ownership more widespread on full slates.

Giants are in an absolute smash spot tonight. Madbum is just a shell of the pitcher he was in his prime. Over the past 30 days it’s been even more apparent as his hard hit rate is nearing 50% and so his is fly ball rate. Add in the fact that his SwStr % is just 8%, he’s someone that we’ll want to take full advantage of.

Madbum’s platoon splits have been pretty equal this year so I’ll want to just take a look at the Giants that have had the most success vs. lefties this year. Enter Mr. Kris Byrant ($4.2k) and his .367 ISO and .464 wOBA vs. lefties in 2021. He will be my building block in this stack and I’ll surround him with Austin Slater ($2.3k) and Darin Ruf ($2.4k) as both guys are also hammering lefties. If Flores makes the lineup he’ll be a favorite of mine too.

Atlanta Braves vs. Jon Lester – Lester makes his first appearance for the Cards tonight and it couldn’t have come at a worse time as he gets a revamped Braves lineup that now includes Soler ($3.3k) and Duvall ($3.2k).

Lester’s biggest struggles this year have been against righties. His ISO against jumps to .236 vs. just .108 against lefties. His hard hit rate jumps from 25.9% against lefties to nearly 37% against righties. Braves will more than likely have 7 righties in the lineup tonight with the lone lefty being Freeman.

This is not a match made in heaven for Lester. My building blocks here will be Albies ($3.6k), Soler, and Swanson ($3.2k). All have ISO greater than .250 this year vs. lefties.

Secondary pieces will be Riley ($3.5k) and Freeman ($3.7k). There’s a little added incentive with getting to Lester today. When all was said and done during the trade deadline, guys like Rizzo and Bryant waved goodbye to the fans while Lester saluted Nats fans with flipping them the bird. Go Braves!

New York Yankees vs. Alex Wells – The Yankees were, for all intents and purposes, embarrassed last night in front of the home crowd. Newly acquired Heaney gave up homer and homer and when all was said and done they walked away with a 7-1 loss.

I think today is a different story. Wells has not been particularly good. He’s actually been quite bad. In his last 10 innings he’s given up 3 homers and 4 barrels. That’s just too many hard hits in a short window. We’ll need to keep an eye on the Yankees situation today because Cole tested positive for Covid.

If their regulars are in the lineup tonight this has the makings of a high scoring affair for the Yankees. My core here would be Judge ($4k), Rizzo ($4k), and Stanton ($3.4k). Rizzo isn’t someone we should be concerned with in the L/L match up. He has a .247 ISO and .439 wOBA vs. lefties this year.

We have a glut of teams that are in great spots tonight. Phillies vs. Corbin, Tigers vs. Richards, and even Oakland vs. a struggling Snell.

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

My lean right now will be use either Cease or Wheeler as my starter tonight and then pair them with a Giants/Braves stack. Thankfully both of those teams match up great.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Monday, August 02

Jared Levitt 4 years ago

written by Jared Levitt

Welcome to the Monday edition of Picks and Pivots. Today we have a nice sized 7 game main slate of MLB DFS on Draftkings to navigate through.

Main Slate Breakdown

It’s Jared and I’ll be filling in for Brian over the next 2 weeks when I’m not writing Aces and Bases as he takes a much needed vacation. Today’s slate will leave a lot to desired from a pitching standpoint. The most expensive pitcher on tonight’s slate is Tylor Megill. Nothing against Megill as he’s been quite good since his call up, but he shouldn’t be the most expensive pitcher on a slate (at least yet).

There are really only 3 pitchers tonight that will have my interest. Tylor Megill ($9.6k), Michael Wacha ($8.4k), and Josiah Gray ($7.6k). As the day goes on I will let ownership dictate who I use. These 3 pitchers provide 2 things I’m looking for on a slate like this. Upside and safety.

First let’s look at Megill. He’s facing off against a very watered down lineup that won’t hit for much power. While the Marlins do get Chisholm back, he’s someone that’s striking out more than 29% of the time to righties this year. Megill’s price is a little more than I’d like to pay for him, but the match up today definitely gives him room for upside. The next two guys are the wild cards for me.

How do you get the Nationals to send you 2 of their best players? You send them one of the top pitching prospects in the game in Josiah Gray. Gray has looked pretty good so far in the Majors with 13 K’s through 8 IP. That’s nearly 15 K/9. He’s someone that’s going to give us the most K potential of any arm on the slate as long as he can limit the walks.

The last guy I’m interested in is Wacha. Over the last 30 days Wacha has a 27% K rate and gets a great match up against a Mariners team that couldn’t put up much of a fight against the worst pitcher in baseball, Folty. If Wacha comes in at chalk (and it’s certainly possible on a slate like this) I’ll side with Gray and Megill.

The main area of offense for me tonight will be the Milwaukee Brewers. We get to attack newly acquired Bryce Wilson. While Wilson isn’t very good to either side of the plate, we really want to attack him with batters from the left side of the plate. His ISO jumps to .254 from just .130 and his K rate is just 11%.

Newly acquired Eduardo Escobar ($5.4K) is my favorite of the bunch as he has the most power with an ISO of .231 against righties this season. The other keys here will be Kolten Wong ($4.4k) at the top and Omar Narvaez ($4.5k).

The one guy in this lineup that will open us up for a ton of salary relief is Jackie Bradley Jr. ($2.4k). Look, this season has been brutal for Bradley as he’s batting just .175 with an OPS of .540. Some of it has been bad luck though as he an extremely low BABIP of .234. By far the lowest of his career.

The team that I’m looking at tonight to pair with the Brewers is a Brian special, the Tampa Bay Rays. They get to take on Chris Flexen. Flexen has flashed some upside this season, but the match up for him tonight is going to be tough and his performance recently has been trending down. His last outing was by far his worst of the year, giving up 7 ER vs. the Houston Astros.

The two building blocks I’ll use from the Rays are Austin Meadows ($4.5k) and Ji-Man Choi ($4.4k). Both guys have absolutely crushed right handed hitting this year with ISO’s of .339 and .284 respectively. The two of them are extremely underpriced considering the match up and their upside.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up

This is going to be a tricky, but fun slate. We’ve had some questionable pitching slates over the past month but this one may take the cake. We are now a few days separated from the trading deadline and lineups are getting close to set with the new guys. Tonight I’ll be mixing and matching the Brewers with Rays as both teams line up great with each other.

I don’t think I’ll stray too far from my core of Megill, Wacha, and Gray. Another area to look at tonight will be the Baltimore Orioles. Andrew Heaney is making his Yankees debut and if he becomes chalky, I’ll be sure to sprinkle in some O’s (Mancini being the main target). O’s have been very good vs. lefties this year and can certainly do some damage vs. Heaney.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Sunday Funday – 08/01

Joel Bartilotta 4 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Sunday Funday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a nice sized 10 game main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.

Today we have another questionable pitching slate. I will say though we have an opportunity to take advantage of some pricing discrepancies between the two sites today. We have some pitchers priced up on one site, while others are priced up on the other. I plan on walking you through 3 of my top pitching plays and my top 3 pitchers to attack.

Let’s dig in to today’s slates!

MLB DFS: The Aces

We don’t have a single pitcher on FD priced over $10k today. The top 3 pitchers on FD are overpriced for my liking so I’m going to live in the mid-tier range today as they’ll provide us the most upside while also allowing us to build our lineups with very solid bats.

Jordan Montgomery ($8k) vs. Miami Marlins – Gone from the Marlins lineup are some of the righty pop that we’d normally use against a lefty like Montgomery. Duvall was shipped to Atlanta and Marte was shipped out west to the A’s.

The projected lineup that Montgomery is scheduled to face today has a 28% K rate and just a .145 ISO against lefties this year. It’s a much weaker lineup than before the trade deadline and it’s one we’ll want to attack. Montgomery over the past 30 days has been pretty good himself which warrants even more consideration from us.

His xFIP is 3.92 and his K% is 26.5%. On a day where we don’t have may high K guys Montgomery is one that’s going to provide us some of the most upside on the slate.

Adbert Alzolay ($7.5k) vs. Washington Nationals – The Nationals, just like the Marlins, are going to be a watered down lineup from what we saw just a week ago. Gone are Trea Turner, Josh Harrison, and Yan Gomes. Outside of Juan Soto and Josh Bell this is going to be a very low power lineup that Alzolay will face today.

The projected lineup has a 24.5% K rate vs. righties and an extremely low ISO of .115. Alzolay isn’t someone that’s going to wow us with a double strike out game today, but he’s at a price point and against a lineup that can really bring us back some value.

He has at times shown some K upside with multiple games at 6 strikes outs or more. Today has the feeling of one of those days where he can dial it back and bring us at least 6 strike outs.

Jose Berrios ($9k) vs. Kansas City Royals – One of the bigger trades of the deadline this year was Berrios heading up north to the Toronto Blue Jays. While the price is a littler higher than I’d like to pay for Berrios, he’s one of the top pitchers on the slate.

Of all the pitchers on today’s slate, no pitcher has a higher K rate over the past month than Berrios. His K rate over the last 30 days is just a shade under 30% and he’s really been able to limit the hard contact with just a 29% hard hit rate. The match up today is not easy as the Royals are a stingy team.

They are a low K team as the projected lineup today has just a 22% K rate vs. righties on the year. The subtraction of Soler from this lineup makes it a little less intimidating. I will most likely live with the top 2 pitchers in the article, but from a pure talent stand point Berrios is the guy that will provide the highest potential today.

MLB DFS: The Bats

Seattle Mariners vs. Mike Foltynewicz – This is more a testament to the quality of the pitcher than the quality of the lineup. Although the Mariners have been playing some better ball of late. Folty is one of the worst pitchers in the game.

Over the past 30 days he’s brought it to a whole new level as his xFIP over his last 19 innings is 6.67. In his last 19 innings he’s give up 12, yes 12 homers. His fly ball rate over this period is nearly 70% and his hard hit rate is nearly 45%. He’s given up multiple homers in 4 consecutive games, with one of those games being against this same Mariners team.

My main building blocks here will be the lefties of Seattle as Folty’s fly ball rate jumps to 50% against them. Seager ($3.1k), Toro ($2.5k), and Kelenic ($2.1k) all stand a great chance of homering today.

Chicago White Sox vs. Cal Quantrill – If we look at just box scores, Quantrill hasn’t pitched poorly over the past 30 days. However, if we dig in, the advanced metrics tell a very different story.

Both his SIERA and xFIP are more than 2 runs higher than his ERA. He’s giving up way more hard contact than soft contact and he’s not missing any bats with just a 14% K rate. One of the numbers that sticks out the most his LOB % at 88%.

He’s playing with fire and the White Sox are the team that lights him up. Quantrill throws his sinker more than any other pitch. Guys like Abreu ($3.4k), Moncada ($2.9k), and Sheets ($2.3k) all hit this pitch well and should be the building blocks to your stack.

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Brad Keller – Keller hasn’t pitched poorly recently, but he’s someone that we can attack because if we look at his season as a whole he’s been someone that has had some pretty rough outings.

I tend to use the Blue Jays more vs. righties than I do lefties. Blue Jays will most likely throw out 7 or 8 right handed hitters today so the pitch mix will be a bunch of sinkers and sliders from Keller. If we take a look at how the Blue Jays have handled this pitch mix from righties, this has the makings of a tough day for Keller.

It all starts at the top as Springer ($4.2k) has an ISO greater than .200 and wOBA over .380 to both pitches. Semien ($3.7K) and Bichette ($4.1k) also both profile extremely well. With how cheap the Mariners are today (and even the White Sox) we should have no issue fitting in the high priced Blue Jays today.

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

We’ll need to keep an eye on the weather today as there are a few spots that have some potentially for showers and thunder showers. Pitching is going to be tough today as we have more cons than pros to almost all of them. There will be plenty of offense to go around and we have plenty of salary to fit the bats we want.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Saturday, July 31

Brian Tulloch 4 years ago

written by Brian Tulloch

Welcome to the Saturday, July 31st edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!

If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather to walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!

Main Slate Breakdown

Welcome into a Saturday Edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we have a full day of baseball after an insane MLB Trade Deadline Day on Friday.

The scheduling today gives us an “early” slate but really that just means we have 3 games starting at 6:10 PM EST which makes the way this slate is chopped up super unappealing in my opinion for the early 5 gamer where pitching is weak and the games are back-loaded. My recommendation – the early slate is more “play for fun” than the one to focus on.

The Main Slate has a very clear direction in my mind – pay up for pitching and do not look back.

Listen, I get it, pitching the last month or so has been a roller coaster, and the “safety” of paying up for aces is long gone as Corbin Burnes showed us last night but I think tonight we simply have to live in this range especially with Yu Darvish and Aaron Nola in elite match-ups against the Rockies and Pirates as Adam Strangis laid out in Starting Rotation today.

The question though is how can you build around double aces tonight and still get the value and high upside stacks?

Well, let’s start with the Cleveland Indians who take on LHP Dallas Keuchel in Chicago.

Over the last month, the White Sox lefty is an arm we can attack as he is giving up a 2.45 HR/9 rate and 51% hard contact rate with a .438 ISO mark to lefties and a .222 ISO mark to RHB.

If you look at the Indians projected line-up you start to see why we are going here – because, well it is a $2K punt party up and down this bad boy. Myles Straw projects to lead-off at the minimum price while the entire starting OF while you also have Roberto Perez ($2.5K) catcher, Oscar Mercado ($2.1K) and Harold Ramirez ($2.7K) all offering you pure value in the heart of this lineup.

The two big bats you can mix and match in are Jose Ramirez and Franmil Reyes with J-Ram profiling as one of the best hitters on the slate. Keuchel is throwing the sinker/cutter combination to RHB over 50% of the time and both pitches are getting smoked the last month – to the tune of a .450 ISO allowed.

Ramirez profiles exceptionally well against both pitch types with a .359 ISO against the sinker and a .467 ISO against the cutter. I know he is pricey but with all this punt value in the Indians lineup, he makes for the ideal spend-up within the stack.

One of the things an Indians stack lacks is a strong 1B-SS mini correlation and it just so happens we get a new duo to unleash tonight in Flushing with Pete Alonso and Javier Baez and they get to do it against a soft-tossing lefty in Wade Miley.

Alonso just faced Miley in GABP and hit a home run off him and while Miley was able to rack up 8 K’s in that outing, he also was getting hit HARD with a 45% hard contact and 7 base hits allowed and so with the Mets seeing him again just a few days later – this could be a spot where they tee off on the lefty.

As a Mets fan, I am fascinated to see how Baez impacts this line-up, and more anecdotally, I am expecting him to be a dynamic acquisition for the Mets similar to the impact we saw Yoesnis Cespedes have back in 2015. Baez is a polarizing player, and one who when he is hot, can carry a team – and I think going to New York, where he wanted to play and said so publicly – I think he comes out and has a monster first game against a Reds pitching staff he is intimately familiar with.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up

The MLB DFS Picks and Pivots Main Slate looks to be a good one tonight and an opportunity to roll out double aces which frankly, has been more of a GPP strategy lately than what we saw early in the year when top-end arms were steady and consistent.

The dirt-cheap Indians offer us an opportunity to load up on arms and do so while attacking one of the worst arms in baseball the last month in terms of ISO and hard contact allowed.

Well – that is it for me. I am heading out on vacation and will be back after some quality family time but don’t worry – the Win Daily Crew had you covered. Just remember when I am gone – stack the Rays and celebrate Lester Day!

Good luck tonight all! Let’s keep that hot streak rolling! Come join the Win Daily Sports Team – grab a Gold Membership and take advantage of all the tools, articles, and expert coaching we can give you to make you a consistent winner in DFS.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

4 years ago 0 comments

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Main Slate Breakdown

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up

MLB DFS: The Aces

MLB DFS: The Bats

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

Main Slate Breakdown

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up

Main Slate Breakdown

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up

MLB DFS: The Aces

MLB DFS: The Bats

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

Main Slate Breakdown

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up

MLB DFS: The Aces

MLB DFS: The Bats

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

Main Slate Breakdown

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up

MLB DFS: The Aces

MLB DFS: The Bats

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

Main Slate Breakdown

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up

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