daily fantasy baseball

Welcome to the Wednesday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!

If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather to walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!

Main Slate Breakdown

Welcome into a 9 game MLB DFS Picks and Pivots Main Slate where we will shift our focus after a MONSTER night for the Win Daily Sports team with takedowns and green screens galore – you simply love to see it!

Congrats to each and every one of you who keeps grinding and improving your game daily.

The biggest issue we have tonight is weather – with rain/storm concerns in both Atlanta and Baltimore that could completely change how we attack this slate.

Pitching Picks

This Main Slate is really interesting because while we have a deep pitching pool in name/theory – the truth is, all the options feel overpriced and unnecessary.

Let’s break it down for you:

• Freddy Peralta ($10.2K) – On a clear pitch count as the season winds down and threw only 53 pitches last time out. No thank you.
• Shane McLanahan ($9.7K) – the swings and misses remain but so too does the hard contact and inability to put up zeroes and the Red Sox lineup is getting healthier.
• Nathan Eovaldi ($9.5K) – HAHAHAHAHA. He plays the Rays. HAHAHAHA
• Yu Darvish ($9.3K) – This is the trap play of the night and I think it is where we can make some serious waves by fading the arm I expect everyone anchors to after what Blake Snell did and with Shohei Ohtani still sidelined in the NL Park. We brought this up his last start before he went out and gave up 5 ER and 8 hits in just 2.2 innings but something is off with Darvish right now as his velocity remains significantly below his season long numbers and it is fair to wonder if the back injury is lingering. I want no part of him tonight as likely chalk – he is broken right now and I am not paying a premium with ownership in the hope the 35 year old regains his form tonight.

Frankie Montas ($9K) – of all the arms in this price range, he is the one I feel best about and his recent form at near 30% K rate with a 35% K rate against RHB stands out on a slate without many ceiling options. Getting Montas in Oakland is always where I prefer toplay him as well as his K rate increases, his HR/9 rate drops and he uses his elite ground ball skillsto limit hard contact and give you added run prevention. I don’t consider Montas a must play but if I am paying up for one arm today – it is him.

As you can tell, I am far from enamored with the pitching pool at the top and the sad reality is – it does not get any better as you drop down into the value range. There is simply not a single-arm I feel like I NEED to play or HAVE to use. So rather than play the arms themselves – are we better off playing the matchups?

There has been no better match-up for strikeouts in baseball the last month of the season than the Chicago Cubs and so while the volatility is real, so is the upside for Vladimir Guttierez ($7.7K) today. No team in baseball has struck out more than the Cubs the last month at a 29.1% rate and over the last two weeks, it has been more of the same with a 28.9% K rate that is a full 3% higher than any other team in the bigs. If the Reds right-hander can get a right-handed heavy lineup to cater to his 27% K rate the last 30 days against RHB – the path is there for upside but also realize you are paying a premium for the match-up and there is considerable floor here.

It may not seem it – but if we want consistency – well, playing a left-handed pitcher against the Orioles may be the way to go. Welcome to a Mike Minor ($6.7K) reccomendation – gross.

If you look at the recent trends for LHP against the Orioles courtesy of Statmuse, you will see that every single one of the last 14 lefties toface Baltimore has gone for double-digit DK points and 9 of the 14 have eclipsed 20 DK point outings.

While we never start a day thinking – man I cannot wait to play Mike Minor, the recent data would suggest there is a sneaky blend of run prevention and K upside for him this evening. In the context of this slate, give me 10-15 DK points and I will lock you in right now.

Time to Stack

We now enter into the stacks part of Picks and Pivots and let’s just cut the small talk and rename this – “How to Stack the Tampa Bay Rays Tonight.”

You would think after they continue to destroy every arm they face and coming off last night’s beatdown in Fenway they would be chalky today without Coors on the slate but the beautiful thing about tonight is that 5 teams have higher IRt’s than they do which means everyone will chase the shiny toys and we can keep stacking the best offense in baseball.

Sure Nathan Eovaldi is a talented arm, so was Eduardo Rodriguez and Chris Sale before that. Guys – this offense comes at you in waves from both sides with tons of power and the Red Sox bullpen is hot garbage on a platter. I am stacking 5 Rays – you should too. Unless you hate money – then don’t.

One key note – Randy Arozarena has been put on the paternity list and the Rays called up top OF prospect, Josh Lowe. He is $2K and has absolutely mashed in the minors. This Rays lineup just got so much easier and cheaper to stack. Giddy up.

At the same time we get the Rays on the road, we also get the Kansas City Royals against Matt Harvey and the Orioles pen in Camden Yards. If you have been to the Picks and Pivots party before you know I LOVE how these two teams correlate on DraftKings as you can mix and match the Rays and Royals in so many ways especially with the position flexibility they have.

So we get to the part now where you greedy HR hungry readers are waiting for. After 4 straight days of predicitng HR’s including a 1% double dong from Mike Zunino last night – I have to step up my game. And step I shall.

So I am going to call 2 shots for 2 Lock tonight.

Over the last month, Matt Harvey is giving up a .250 ISO and 60% HC rate to left-handed batters and he does so on two primary pitches – a sinker that he throws 31% of the time and has been hit for a .444 ISO and a curve he throws 21% of the time and has been hit for a .625 ISO mark the last month.

So we start with the sinker – and our first HR call of the night – Carlos Santana ($3K). Santana has a massive .342 ISO, 45% HC rate and team high 340 average distance traveled against this pitch. Harvey is throwing him a sinker tonight and it’s just like the ocean under the moon. Oh, it’s the same as the emotion that I get from you. You got the kind of lovin’ that can be so smooth, yeah. Give him a sinker, make it hang, or then forget about it.

Yes, I broke out a song lyric home run call. Smooth.

The other bat that stand out against the curveball is Andrew Benintendi – with a .309 ISO and 55% HC rate and a team-high 80% contact rate against this pitch type. With the hot and humd temperatures and the wind blowing in in KC – this is a spot where the Royals OF will get a hanger and deposit it in the Camden bleachers.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up

This MLB DFS Picks and Pivots slate is a solid one but also one that I think is not going to be clear tomost and require you to think differently. If and when ownership drives chalk today – that may help us identify some slight pivot paths off the build concept I outlined above.

Good luck tonight all! Let’s keep that hot streak rolling! Come join the Win Daily Sports Team – grab a Gold Membership and take advantage of all the tools, articles, and expert coaching we can give you to make you a consistent winner in DFS.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Welcome to the Tuesday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!

If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather to walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!

Main Slate Breakdown

Welcome into a 12 game Tuesday MLB DFS Picks and Pivots slate where we have some slight rain risk in Atlanta and St. Louis but overall we have a strong night of baseball with ace level arms, a game in Coors Field between the Rockies & Giants, and more than 5 teams with 5+ IRT’s early on.

Pitching Picks

Over the last few days, we have remarked a few times about how the pricing on pitching for DraftKings since about $1-$2K too cheap most slates – well, that has swung back with a vengeance today and DraftKings decided to inflate the pricing in a serious way.

Remember the last start when Gerrit Cole was $9.9K? Yeah well, today against the Blue Jays you are going to shell out $11.8K to use him! Aaron Nola was priced at $9.5K the last outing and despite getting just 2 DK points against the Nationals, his price has jumped to $10.6K tonight against the Brewers. Logan Webb has been great but he is now priced around his season-high at $9.5K in Coors Field- I think you are getting the gist.

I simply cannot wait to see ownership today to get an idea of how people approach Gerrit Cole at $11.8K against the Blue Jays stacked offense in Yankee Stadium. Cole pitched arguably his most dominant game against the Angels last time out with 15 K’s and will face a Blue Jays team he has not faced since June where he struck out 4 batters in 8 innings of work. After the Blue Jays dropped 8 runs in the Bronx yesterday PLUS the fact we have Coors on the slate – I really think this is a spot we could get Cole at under 15% ownership which would make him a fascinating contrarian pay up.

There is one arm that got a similar price bump in Blake Snell who was $7.7K in his last start and now sits at $9.2K but considering the recent form, it would be reasonable to argue the bump is not high enough. Over the last month, Snell’s 41.4% K rate is the highest mark in all of baseball due to three of his last five starts being double-digit K outings where he went for 30+ DK points in each against Arizona (twice) and the Dodgers.

The Angels are projected to go entirely right-handed heavy with no Shohei Ohtani in the lineup with this game being in San Diego and the Angels losing the DH which makes the match-up even more enticing for Snell as the Angels rank top 10 in baseball the last two weeks with a 24.4% K rate.

I really think with the match-up and price difference – we could see Snell at 2-3X the ownership of Cole and if that is the case, paying up for Cole over Snell could be a fascinating GPP strategy.

While we have elite high K arms up top – we also have an amazing bargain at SP2 in Jackson Kowar ($5.3K). Kowar is a former first-round pick, a consensus top 100 prospect in all of baseball, and one who was dominating hitters ta AAA with a 34% K rate and we are getting him tonight at a price point that is lower than 15 hitters on the slate.

The book on Kowar is that he has a plus high 90’s fastball that he uses to set up his best pitch, the change-up which he throws early and often to both sides of the plate. In his last start against the Indians, he threw the change-up 35% of the time, 44% of the time to LHB and overall got 5 of his 6 strikeouts using this nasty change-up with diving action to keep hitters off balance.

The match-up today with the Orioles is an advantageous one for K upside and I honestly hope the 5+ IRT for Baltimore keeps people off Kowar in this spot. Over the last two weeks, the Orioles rank 5th in baseball with a 24.8% K rate and the right-handed hitters specifically have a lofty 32% K rate against RHP the last month of the season.

The bottom of this O’s order is really where I think Kowar and the change-up can do damage as Jorge Mateo (39% K rate against the changeup), Kelvin Gutierrez (29.4%) and Pedro Severino (27.1%) struggle significantly against that pitch type. On a slate where the arms have been priced up largely in the top-tier, getting a punt arm with massive PP/$ upside like Kowar as our SP2 becomes a critical component to unlocking the big bats around them.

Stacks on Stacks

As we turn our attention to the bats on this slate, the 7 IRT for the Giants in Coors Field is likely to be everyone’s first stop but on a 12 game slate, I simply see no reason to play chalk offenses when we have viable pivots so I will be looking elsewhere and it all starts with the Los Angeles Dodgers against LHP JA Happ.

All year long we have picked on Happ with right-handed batters as his .254 ISO and 41% HC stand out and after giving up 8 hits, 7 ER and 2 HR’s in just ONE inning last time out against the Reds – there is no reason to shy away from the spot that has worked all year long for us in MLB DFS.

The book on Happ is simple – we want the right-handed batters with power as his 2.13 HR/9 rate against RHB this season is the 4th worst mark in all of baseball and with the Dodgers able to go right-handed heavy – this is a scenario where the Dodgers stack on the road with 9 guaranteed innings of baseball could win us a GPP.

The top of the order with Trea Turner, Mookie Betts and Justin Turner gives us the ability to stack three batters with 250+ ISO marks and all 45-50% hard contact rates against left-handed pitching. The ultimate narrative is this is likely Albert Pujols ($2.7K) last trip to St. Louis and while he is just a part-time player – his .310 ISO and 44% HC rate make him an incredible bargain in the heart of this order.

Depending on what we do at pitcher – either going double ace or dropping down to Kowar as an SP2 – it will vastly change how we attack our secondary stack – or will it?

Hello, Tampa Bay Rays on the road in Fenway Park.

The match-up against LHP Eduardo Rodriguez is one that E-Rod has won twice in recent starts, with 11 innings pitched, just 1 ER and 14 K’s and so you may be wondering why I would go out of my way to go back here. The starts that sit in between those Rays outings tell you E-Rod can be hit hard, giving up 16 hits, 8 runs and 2 HR’s in just 10 innings against the Indians and Rangers.

What is interesting about those starts is that E-Rod was ineffective with his change-up, giving up the entirety of the opposing HR’s on that pitch type and that has largely been the offering E-Rod has relied on nearly 30% of the time against the Rays in recent starts.

If you dig into the change-up in those outings – comparing the Rays starts versus the Indians/Rangers you will see that the spin rate is DRASTICALLY different and he also is getting a significantly different break on the pitch type. In those poor outings, the release point and his extension on delivery changed (for the worse) but he managed to correct that especially in his last start against Tampa Bay.

So it brings me back to why I would be willing to attack this. It is fair to wonder with E-Rod as you look at his pitch metrics if there is an inconsistency game to game in his delivery – one that has been there all year that has resulted in blow-up outings with multiple HR’s and crooked numbers.

What you are banking on is that this is the “down” outing from the Red Sox left-hander and you are overlaying that with the best lineup in baseball that dropped 11 runs on Chris Sale and company yesterday. We talk about it all the time but when the Rays get ignored, it is the best time to play them and with the up and down nature of Rodriguez – I love the idea of pairing their “volatility” with the steadiness of the Dodgers stack tonight.

We all know you are waiting for the 2Lock HR call of the day after hitting on each of the last three days so here you go ya filthy animals.

If E-Rod’s change is flat tonight there is a Rays hitter that is going to put one over the monster with a moon shot and that is Mike Zunino ($4.5K). Zunino has a .472 ISO and 48% HC rate against the change-up with a team-high 353 average distance traveled against that pitch type in his career and if we look at just this year – his 65% HC rate against that pitch type stands out as a boom or bust metric we can anchor to.

All it takes is one change-up from E-Rod that doesn’t have the spin/drop and BOOM – Zunino is sending one OUT of Fenway tonight. Book it. Lock it. 2Lock it if you will. See you later for the HR alert.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up

Tonight’s slate is an MLB DFS picks and Pivots GPP dream as the pricing and presence of Coors Field will drive some ownership to and away from spots that make our decision-making process a critical one.

Tonight is a night, being in our Discord is critical because we can give 1 on 1 coaching post ownership projections, that will really help you hone in on your builds.

Good luck tonight all! Let’s keep that hot streak rolling! Come join the Win Daily Sports Team – grab a Gold Membership and take advantage of all the tools, articles, and expert coaching we can give you to make you a consistent winner in DFS.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Welcome to the Monday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!

If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather to walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!

Main Slate Breakdown

Welcome into a Labor Day edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we have 7 games on the slate kicking off at 1:05 PM EST and some really intriguing GPP builds with strong pitching and fairly priced stacks.

At first glance, the name value of the pitching pool at the top end is really strong and while the recent form is not at the elite levels we have seen for our high-priced pitchers lately, I think anchoring to these higher-priced arms is the way to go initially. The fact that only Zack Wheeler ($10.1K) is priced above $10K on DraftKings, I think gives us a path to easily anchor to two aces here today without having to sacrifice at all on our bats.

Brandon Woodruff ($9.8K) is the arm that stands out to me at first glance with his 30% K rate over the last month that has been buoyed by a 36.5% K rate to left-handed batters and considering that the Phillies will likely have 5 of their 8 batters from the left side, this sets up for another nice ceiling spot for Woodruff.

Sonny Gray ($9K) may not have the recent form, but he has arguably the best match-up against a Cubs team that leads baseball in K rate over both the last month and the last two weeks and has been a consistent key to unlocking ceiling games from opposing arms. We have seen arms like Mitch and Brad Keller, strike out 8 batters each on their way to 25+ DK point outings with Carlos Hernandez and Dylan Cease both topping 30 DK points against the Cubbies in the last two weeks. The flip side concern with Gray is the recent form is rather pedestrian – a 22% K rate and just a 9% swinging strike rate so the real question is – are you going match-up or recent form?

If we are focused on recent form, Tarik Skubal ($7.8K) may be the best bang for the buck as he has a 30.9% K rate, 31.9% CSW rate and 12.4% SS rate over the last month, dominating right-handed batters with a 32% K rate. The opposing Pirates are likely to have 6 batters of their 8 from the right side, with those projected RHB having a 24% K rate against LHP the last month and overall Pittsburgh’s K rate the last month ranks top 10 in all of baseball.

In general – the pricing for pitching today on DK feels like every arm is just too cheap for what they are and the fact you can go with Skubal as your SP2, really allows you to pay for a higher dollar SP1 like Woodruff or Gray without issue.

The offense that stands out above all others today is the New York Mets against LHP Patrick Corbin. I have to think after their offensive outbursts the last few days that they gain serious ownership today but the underlying metrics really support going all in here and hoping that the field overthinks it.

Over the last month, Corbin is giving up a massive .361 ISO and 56% hard contact rate to batters from the right side and the pitch data gets really scary really quickly the more we dive in. Corbin throws basically two pitchers to RHB – a slider which he throws 46% of the time and has gotten hit to the tune of a .429 ISO and 68% HC rate and then his sinker which he throws 41% of the time and opposing hitters have hammered for a .296 ISO and 52% HC rate.

If we look at the slider, the big right-handed bats of Javier Baez (.364 ISO and 46% HC) and Pete Alonso (.256 ISO and 46% HC rate) stand out as elite plays. Against the sinker, Baez has an even better .543 ISO and 48% HC rate while the Polar Bear has a staggering .919 ISO and 58% HC rate.

Pete Alonso is going deep today. Book it. Lock it. Screenshot it. The man is going YARD today against Corbin.

Taking it a step further, the sinker data brings guys like Jonathan Villar and Kevin Pillar into play who are not only red-hot but also both have .250+ ISO marks against this pitch type.

This is where the game script becomes important as well – we do not simply need to load up on RHB that hit the pitch type well, because if you are stacking the Mets you are assuming they get to Corbin early and often and get into the Nats pen so you can play game script where now someone like Michael Conforto and/or Jeff McNeil get the advantage of the split later in the game and get you low owned difference-making performances.

Here is my take – the Mets may be popular today – but rightfully so and I think you need to plant your flag and go all-in today with them. If you only go 3 or even 4 deep in a stack, you are going to have a lot of overlap so make a point to go 5 deep with your New York stack and get the highest level of correlation/upside for GPP play.

The other chalky spot, at least I think, is going to be in Kansas City where the Royals get the benefit of facing the Orioles in Camden Yards. The Royals and Mets correlate perfectly on DK and it all starts with Salvador Perez ($6K) at catcher who gets the face a lefty with a near 7 ERA in AAA and the putrid Baltimore pen after that. $6K seems like a lot – it may not be enough – and frankly, I think he will end up one of the highest-owned bats on the slate.

The nice part about KC is that after Salvy, the stack is cheap and you can get RHB like Edward Oliveres, Hunter Dozier and Michael Taylor for $2.6K-$3K price points that help you balance the cost of Perez and the big time Mets bats.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up

Today’s MLB DFS Picks and Pivots slate is one that seems super clear to me at first glance – and while my gut is that it ends up being chalky, we tend to be wrong more often than not trying to predict ownership. So at least initially, I am going to take the path that the metrics tell me and if we have to pivot because of unruly ownership – we cross that bridge when we come to it!

Good luck tonight all! Let’s keep that hot streak rolling! Come join the Win Daily Sports Team – grab a Gold Membership and take advantage of all the tools, articles, and expert coaching we can give you to make you a consistent winner in DFS.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Welcome to the Sunday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!

If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather to walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!

Main Slate Breakdown

Welcome into a 10 game Sunday MLB DFS Picks and Pivots Main Slate where we get a chance to follow up on our red-hot day Saturday courtesy of the Mets/Rays bats that carried us to big-time early wins across the Win Daily Sports family!

Today’s slate looks like Picks and Pivots perfection as it all starts with two aces up top in Robbie Ray and Corbin Burnes that I plan on making the 1-2 punch to anchor my GPP lineups.

Robbie Ray ($10.1K) has been one of the most dominant arms in baseball the last month with a 37.5% K rate that ranks 2nd in baseball and a 18.1% swinging-strike rate that ranks also ranks 2nd. Ray is coming off three straight double-digit K outings that have resulted in 30+ DK points each time and today he takes on an Oakland team that while almost entirely right-handed will have to deal with Ray’s 40% K rate to RHB the last 30 days.

Corbin Burnes ($9.7K) being priced under $10K is a free square – this is how I felt with Gerrit Cole the other night and I feel the same way here today. Burnes K rate at 29.8% is a bit misleading to how dominant he has been as his 34.5% CSW rate is tops in all of baseball and his 17% swinging-strike rate is third in baseball right behind the aforementioned Ray. Burnes is coming off a K, 31 DK point outing and his price went down $500 – cool, got it.

Going double aces is the most logical path today as you are getting two of the best K arms in baseball, both of who are priced at a discount relative to their recent form. Just take the double aces and move on.

It is a day that ends in Y – and so here we go again with the best offense in baseball facing a bad starting pitcher – yep, another Tampa Bay Rays day my friends. I know by now you think we are just Tampa Bay public relations employees and this should be obvious – but even yesterday on a small slate the Rays stack was only 10% owned. Seriously, people don’t ever play this team – well, except us. We do and we win.

RHP Griffin Jax is today’s sacrificial lamb, an arm who over the last 30 days has some simply brutal metrics including a .400 ISO and 54.3% HC rate to left-handed batters with “just” a .317 ISO and 43% HC rate to RHB. Jax has given up 2 or more HR’s in 3 of his last 4 starts and on the season he has a 2+ HR/9 to RHB with a 3+ HR/9 mark against lefties. Seriously this is a smash spot for Tampa and I plan on loading up – but what else is new?

The truth is – this is an onslaught kind of stacking approach today where both sides of the plate are in play and you can do it with so many different price points.

The one bat on the Tampa side for me that is a MUST is Brandon Lowe. Over the last month, no hitter on the Rays has a better batted ball profile against RHP than Lowe who has a massive .338 ISO, 50% fly-ball rate, and an average distance traveled of 340 feet. Later this afternoon you are going to get a HR alert on your phone and it will say Brandon Lowe hit a HR. You will smile and then wonder, how did 2Lock know this was going to happen again? Screenshot this people – the 8AM coffee HR call is here. Rejoice!

Not only is it a double ace and Rays day but it is a Jon Lester Day too. Seriously, this is going to be so good.

Our boy Jon Lester faces a Milwaukee Brewers team he is familiar with but it is one that is banged up with the big right-handed bats we would want like Avisail Garcia and/or Willy Adames both current DTD. This is going to be a wait-and-see lineup day for the Brew Crew but it could be one that unlocks a TON of value if/when both Adames and Garcia are ruled out. I think Adames is a lock to be out since the post-game reports were he was due to miss time but we could see Garcia slide back in which would make him an elite play with his ability to hammer LHP.

This Brewers game is an hour after lock so we should have this lineup before the games begin but I would tell you – be ready about 30 minutes before lock to start building to find which Milwaukee pieces we can fit around a core Rays stack.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up

Sometimes the MLB DFS Picks and Pivots slate is so perfect you simply need to sit back and smile. We have double aces. We have the Tampa Bay Rays. We have a Jon Lester Day.

If this does not make you smile then I feel sorry for you because you hate happiness and money. I look forward to the screenshots later my friends – happy Sunday Funday.

Good luck tonight all! Let’s keep that hot streak rolling! Come join the Win Daily Sports Team – grab a Gold Membership and take advantage of all the tools, articles, and expert coaching we can give you to make you a consistent winner in DFS.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Welcome to the Saturday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!

If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather to walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!

Early Slate Breakdown

Welcome into a split slate MLB DFS Picks and Pivots Saturday where we begin with a 6 game early slate that includes a 7 inning double-header game between the Mets/Nationals. One thing to note is the starting times of these games – we have two games that start after 4 PM EST despite the 1 PM EST so there is a real chance we will not have lineup news for the later games by the time lock rolls around which is always a concern on these daytime slates.

When looking at the starting pitching on this early slate – the overarching theme is that it is far more floor than ceiling and DK has priced us to where are paying for perceived safety versus slate breaking upside. Jose Berrios at $10K after failing to crack double-digit DK points in 3 of his last 4 games starts us off and well, it seems aggressive to quite aggressive.

Marcus Stroman ($9.6K) takes on the same Nationals team he has faced twice in the last month, putting up 27 and 15 DK points, and gets the added boost of this being a 7 inning game. Jordan Montgomery ($8.8K) is a ground ball/soft contact machine that has not eclipsed 20 DK points in a month so this is another case where you are paying for run prevention versus K upside.

The issue you have is that going any lower on this slate – well, you have similar run prevention options who do not have the K ability to offset runs allowed and there is a real concern you could have a negative score from your SP’s.

So while I do not feel good about paying up for “safe” arms – I think it is a necessary evil on this slate and my advice is to build backwards and mix and match the arms as your salary allows. Taking the safe path with 20DK points from your arm may allow you to outpace the field in a significant way and I think it’s the path of least resistance.

So here we are – going double aces and well well well – the Tampa Bay Rays are on the slate. I swear guys, I don’t set out to do this but why are we kidding ourselves. Take the clear path because we all know we are the only ones who realize how deadly this lineup is.

Let’s make this one simple – if you get a lefty on the mound – you start with Zunino, Cruz and Arozarena. Albers threw his sinker as his primary pitch and guys, come on – we know the drill – who hits the sinker well from the right side? Yeah, Mike Zunino and his .300 ISO jump out but the real prize is Randy Arozarena and his – wait for it – .550 ISo and 81% HC rate.

Guys – Arozarena is hitting an HR today on a sinker. I will let you screenshot it right now. Go ahead – I will wait. See you later for the victory lap.

After the big “3” it becomes a lineup-based decision and much of that will depend on if Wander Franco is back in the lineup or not after missing Friday’s game with concussion-like symptoms but we will likely get some value like Manuel Margot and Jordan Luplow in the OF at $3K price points.

Now how do we afford the Rays and double aces? Well – my man Adam gave us an awesome path with Pittsburgh but I want to roll out another idea for you – how about the New York Mets?

Yes, I know it is a 7 inning game BUT the Mets are the road team so we get guaranteed 7 innings of AB’s which is a key decision point when playing this double-header bats and DraftKings really took the pricing down accordingly with almost every bat $1,000+ cheaper than they were last night.

Erick Fedde is a sinkerball arm who at home this year is giving up a 1.7 HR/9 with 45% hard contact and the Mets left-handed bats are stupid cheap today! Michael Conforto ($2.7K) is a free square today – the dude rakes against sinkers – a .338 ISO and 48% HC rate and you can pair him with the Squirrell – Jeff McNeil ($3K) who has a .200+ ISO mark of his own.

My goal today is simple – two top-tier arms, 5 Rays, and 3 Mets left-handed bats. Ride the wave baby!

Main Slate Breakdown

We have an 8 game MLB DFS Main Picks and Pivots Slate – well, assuming we get the all-clear with the Reds/Tigers game which seems like the one risky spot we have to watch. So here we are again with another small slate with Coors Field and its lofty run total staring at us to play the chalk.

I have to be honest – I have been staring at this slate all morning. I don’t really like it.

I know you come here for advice on who to play but to be truthful, this slate stinks. I hate the arms, I don’t love the offenses and the more I try and build the more I dislike it.

So – here is my advice – don’t play it.

My goal in Picks and Pivots is to teach you to be a successful MLB DFS player – it is never to give you the “right plays” or hand you a build. The goal is always to make you a player that can succeed on their own using the principles we outline here.

One of those – one we rarely talk about – is taking slates off.

Yeah, FOMO is real and it will drive people to play “just because” – but that’s how you make mistakes and drain bankroll.

So instead take the slate off. If I don’t get a good feel on a slate (like tonight’s) then I simply don’t play it.

This is something I NEVER did starting out playing DFS but it is something I learned over the years and it has made me a far more consistent player who avoids the dreaded “deposit” button.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up

So we step back and look at these two MLB DFS Picks and Pivots slates and my advice is simple – rock the first one, play some NASCAR mid-day and then take the night off – grab a cold one and enjoy the evening.

Good luck tonight all! Let’s keep that hot streak rolling! Come join the Win Daily Sports Team – grab a Gold Membership and take advantage of all the tools, articles, and expert coaching we can give you to make you a consistent winner in DFS.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Welcome to the Friday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!

If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather to walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!

Main Slate Breakdown

Welcome my friends to a 14 game MLB DFS Picks and Pivots Friday Night slate of baseball where we have a mostly clear weather outlook, with some slight rain chances in Colorado and KC but nothing that should result in postponements and a smaller slate.

We once again have a Coors Field game on the slate with a slate high 11.5 game total but unlike last night we have a larger player pool and 6 other teams with 5+ IRT’s that we can pivot to which should result in far less ownership than the 40-50 and even 60% ownership we saw last night on some of the Braves bats.

Pitching Picks

Unlike last night and the last few nights, the pitching is well – not nearly as strong at the top end and the fact that Adam Wainwright is the highest-priced arm on the slate in 2021 at $10K tells you everything you need to know. I think what this likely means more broadly from a roster construction perspective is that the lack of must-have high-priced arms will mean everyone and their mother is able to load up on the bats.

While I am not overly interested in Waino, I do have interest in Nathan Eovaldi ($9.8K) against the Cleveland Indians. Over the last month, the Red Sox right-hander is quietly among the best K arms in baseball with a 28.6% rate that has him ranked 14th in the league over that time frame and he is doing it by dominating left-handed batters.

Over the last month, Eovaldi has a 34.1% K rate to left-handed batters and with the Indians, a team he just faced and struck out 7, projected to throw out 5 left-handed batters – I think we have a serious path to ceiling here once again.

In that last outing, there are a few things that jump out to me past the box score – Eovaldi had a 14.4% SS rate which was far higher than his season metrics and he did it with a pitch mix change – relying heavily on his slider and curveball and threw his fastball just 35% of the time which was his lowest mark of any start this season.

One thing that is interesting in reading about Eovaldi is this strategic use of a quick pitch where he changes the end of his delivery, simply striding forward to deliver the ball to the plate instead of going through his fullleg kick.

This awesome view from Pitching Ninja shows the overlay and the difference in his delivery.

That timing difference in the eye of the batter is massive, especially for a pitcher with 98 MPH gas coming at you. This was a move that Eovaldi used on Franmil Reyes last game to get a K and his continued changes in the delivery type and pitch mix, make me really bullish on a ceiling game here tonight.

Not far down the player pool is another high K arm in top form recently with Vladimir Gutierrez ($8.5K) at home against the K-heavy Detroit Tigers. Gutierrez has really been able to dominate RHB the last month with a 32% K rate and the Tigers are projected to roll out half their lineup from the right side while also losing the DH heading to a National League park.

We talked about this yesterday with Frankie Montas, but this match-up has screamed ceiling for opposing right-handed arms with 4 of the last 9 going for 30+ DK points and while Montas stumbled late yesterday, he was on his way to a similar outing with 7 K’s before some late runs knocked his performance down.

The one arm sitting among the league leaders in K rate the last 30 days that frankly, I did not expect was Cal Quantrill ($7.2K) who has a 29.5% K rate over the last month and he is doing so with a 38.5% K rate to LHB. Quantrill is coming off the same match-up with the Red Sox he just struck out 6 batters against on his way to 21 DK points and his price went down from $8.3K to $7.2K. Insert Ryan Reynolds – “But Why” GIF.

What is great about this slate for pitching is that it is not “as bad” as it may seem but it also lacks obvious plays – and as Adam Strangis mentioned in Starting Rotation, that may lead to condensed ownership on the “names” like Shohei Ohtani or a $5K punt like Glenn Otto. I have a feeling the arms I mentioned above are all going to be 15% or lower owned today once ownership shakes out – and if so, I think we have a path to really building around strong K arms that most people will overlook.

Stacks on Stacks

I am not going to waste your time here with Coors Field – it is Coors, it will be popular and with a lack of top-end arms, it will be a default option for many.

Yawn.

It is a 14 game slate – there are a ton of other strong offenses we can target and so as a GPP player, please all go play chalk bats in Colorado and the rest of us can find low-owned stacks that give us GPP ceiling. If the chalk hits so be it, if it doesn’t – well, these are the kind of tournament slates you can make massive bankroll gains.

It has been a long time since I went to this spot – honestly, I cannot even remember the last time I did – but tonight, this is a spot I think the New York Mets bats break out in a big way against LHP Sean Nolin and the Washington Nationals.

After not pitching in the bigs since 2015, Nolin returned to the Nationals rotation 3 games ago and has made 2 of his first 3 starts against this very same Mets lineup. For a pitcher with a low K pedigree, seeing the same team 3 times in 4 turns could spell disaster and the fact is, this Mets lineup has seen the ball well against him.

In 8 innings against the Mets, he has given up 14 hits, 6 ER, and 3 long balls with Kevin Pillar blasting two against him last game. If you dig into those two games, Nolin has a SIX PERCENT soft contact rate so this is a spot where a career mid-teens K rate guy is going to give up contact and lots of loud contact at that.

The two big hitters against left-handed pitching for the Mets are Pete Alonso and Javy Baez who have .345 and .290 ISO marks respectively against LHP in 2021. I would imagine the red-hot Jonathan Villar and Kevin Pillar after his two HR performances get the nods here again today and the price points on most of the Mets allow us for some serious mid-range pop in a balanced 4-5 man stack.

Finding a team to correlate with the Mets tonight led me to another team that honestly – I can’t recall stacking recently. It is odd, but when is the last time I mentioned using the Tampa Bay Rays.

Oh wait – I do that every day.

The Rays take on Randy Dobnak – a right-hander who throws the sinker 50% of the time. You guys know the drill – when the Rays face a sinkerball arm you lock in Austin Meadows and Brandon Lowe and you don’t think twice.

Against the sinker – Lower has a .232 ISO and 50% HC rate, while Meadows has a .296 ISO, 45% HC rate and an average distance of 340 feet. This duo is at the core of my builds today and they correlate perfectly with the Mets bats no matter how their lineup breaks.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up

Today we have a great MLB DFS Picks and Pivots slate for GPP’s and one that I think we can really capitalize on with low-owned builds that pivot off the likely heavy chalk of Ohtani and Coors. If you want to play the chalk – go for it – I won’t and tonight is the perfect night I think to play the slate differently.

Good luck tonight all! Let’s keep that hot streak rolling! Come join the Win Daily Sports Team – grab a Gold Membership and take advantage of all the tools, articles, and expert coaching we can give you to make you a consistent winner in DFS.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Welcome to the Thursday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!

If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather to walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!

Early Slate Breakdown

Welcome into a split slate MLB DFS Picks and Pivots Thursday where once again we get a 3 game early slate to dive into – now, let’s just hope the pitchers perform better than yesterday’s mess!

This slate to me looks and feels a lot like yesterday in the sense we have three clear top-level arms that it seems like we need to anchor to with Aaron Nola, Logan Webb and Frankie Montas.

All three have strong cases with 30%+ K rates over the last month which is the ceiling we are hoping for if we decide to go this route. Aaron Nola ($9.5K) to me is the one pitcher I think we can lock in regardless of the opposing lineup with 32 and 33% K rates to either side of the plate. The decision on your SP2 with Logan Webb or Frankie Montas, is where you can get a bit more picky based on the opposing lineup.

Webb has been dominant the last month with a 34% K rate but that is wildly skewed due to a 42% K rate versus RHB while the LHB sit at just 25%. Milwaukee is projected to throw 6 left-handed bats today so there is an argument to be made that Webb’s K upside is limited with the splits.

Montas meanwhile has a similar story the last month with a 31% K rate overall that is buoyed by a 42% K rate to RHB versus a 21% K rate to LHB and the Tigers confirmed lineup has 7 hitters from the left side. Now the flip side – right-handed SP’s have flourished against the Tigers lately with 4 of the last 8 going for 30+ DK points so Montas has the higher ceiling of the two in my mind.

So how do we decide? While Webb has the better ballpark, Montas faces a Tigers team with the higher K rate over the last month – but the real deciding factor in some odd way could be the start time of these games.

With the Giants game not starting until 3:45 PM EST which is well after the 1:10 PM EST lock and the start of the other games, the likelihood is we don’t have lineup information on Webb to make a decision so some of it may simply be seeing what Montas has to deal with against the Tigers. Play the known versus the unknown basically.

With Webb/Montas at similar price points – it should not stop us from building – and I think starting with Nola and either SP2 and then anchoring to an Oakland A’s stack is the way to attack early.

Matt Manning is a talented pitcher but he is also an arm giving up nearly 50% hard contact over the last month and the LHB specifically are squaring him up to the tune of a .333 ISO. The biggest issue is the sinker which Manning throws nearly 40% of the time and is giving up a .330+ ISO mark and all the lefties in the A’s lineup hit this pitch well. So start your builds with Matt Olson, Jed Lowrie and Tony Kemp who all have .225 ISO marks and 45%+ HC rates.

Main Slate Breakdown

The 5 game MLB DFS Picks and Pivots Main Slate has a little bit of everything as we have top-end arms, a game in Coors Field with a near THIRTEEN implied run total and some solid contests on DraftKings to make this a really appealing short slate to play.

With both slates today being smaller than usual, ownership and strategy play a massive part and I think this 5 game slate is even more so due to the Coors Field impact. If everyone and their mother is stacking Coors, well the other offenses by default will be overlooked and the build types will likely be largely similar.

If you have ever read Picks and Pivots – the simple truth is – you know what is coming next. Everyone, please go look at the shiny Vegas Coors totals – we will stack the best offense in baseball and do so with double aces.

Yep, it’s a Double Ace/Rays day – because, well it is what we do.

The spot for Shane McLanahan ($10.1K) against a depleted Red Sox lineup screams ceiling especially when you consider the last time he faced them at home he struck out 7 and racked up 26 DK points – and that was before the team got gutted with COVID outbreaks.

Triston McKenzie ($9.3K) has struggled this year but the last two starts are a reminder of his upside with 8 and 11 K’s and 32 and 43 DK points. Now the Royals are getting healthier with Aldaberto Mondesi back but the last two games for McKenzie give us a double ace-high K duo that the Coors Field lovers simply won’t go after because they won’t be able to afford it.

Meanwhile – the Rays offense is priced reasonably against LHP Eduardo Rodriguez and with Nelson Cruz and Jordan Luplow in this lineup now, the Rays become deep and dangerous against lefties which was their bugaboo all year.

The RHB in this lineup has a .236 ISO and 47% HC rate against southpaws the last month and I would argue they are the most dangerous offense on the slate that I expect will be totally overlooked.

The one spot we can find value today easily is in Cleveland with the Indians against LHP Mike Minor. Over the last month, Minor has given up a massive .284 ISO and 49% HC rate to RHB and the Indians are going to have 9 of them – with a whopping 6 priced at $3K or less. You want value and the match-up – this is the spot!

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up

Today we get a full day of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots and with two short slates, navigating through ownership is KEY. I say this all the time but these slates are always strategy over best plays and if there was ever a day to be in Discord with us talking strategy – today is the day!

Good luck tonight all! Let’s keep that hot streak rolling! Come join the Win Daily Sports Team – grab a Gold Membership and take advantage of all the tools, articles, and expert coaching we can give you to make you a consistent winner in DFS.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!