daily fantasy baseball

Welcome to the Thursday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!

If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather to walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!

A Quick PSA

Before I jump into today’s MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, I wanted to note something based on how this week has gone so far because all in transparency – I am getting my teeth kicked in. However, I will be the first to tell you that it was a known risk because each and every night I am making a concerted effort to fade 50-60% chalk arms like Jordan Montgomery and Joe Ryan to try and gain a GPP edge and well, the last few nights the chalk machine has been pumping out winners.

Do you know what that means for GPP players like me who look to ownership to find leverage? Pain.

I am not going to change my process nor should you – it has worked all year long – stay positive and focused on the long game as a tournament player. This ends my Ted Talk.

Early Slate Breakdown

Welcome my friends to a split slate Thursday across Major League Baseball where we have 5 games on the Early MLB DFS Picks and Pivots slate to break down with all clear weather, a game in Coors and Mad Max on the mound!

What stands out to me at first glance is just how strong this pitching slate is for a five gamer, and it is strong (or at least viable) at all price points which makes it even more interesting in how we build.

Let’s start at the top – Max Scherzer ($10.2K) goes to Coors Field and I don’t care where he pitches, dude is a straight strikeout machine right now with a 38.7% K rate that is 3rd in baseball, an 18.7% SS rate which is tops in the league and a 32.7% CSW rate which is second in the Majors during the last 30 days. He has been at or above 30 DK points in each of his last 5 starts and on a short slate he gives you the kind of must-have ceiling we want from an SP1.

Logan Webb ($9.2K) and Yu Darvish ($8.7K) are the next tier down with strong strikeout metrics of their own and reasonable price tags considering their upside. Webb sports a league-leading 33.5% CSW rate the last 30 days with a 28% K rate of his own while Darvish has been far more volatile but has racked up 9 and 7 K outings in 2 of his last 3 trips to the mound with 27 and 31 DK points.

Charlie Morton ($7.5K) sits in a comfortable SP2 mid-range against a beatable Arizona team that we just watched Ian Anderson mow down last night with 8K’s over 7 one-run innings on his way to 32 DK points. The metrics for Morton the last 30 days – a 26% K rate and a 12.5% SS rate – really are not that far off from the Webb/Darvish tier and the price discount on Morton, if you have been using him lately – is staggering. Morton was $9.7K his last start, $8K, $8.9K and $9K the stars before that and was $10.2K back on August 1st. Now we are getting him at $7.5K? Insert Ryan Reynolds “But Why?”

Lastly, if you absolutely need to punt, Yusei Kikuchi ($5.5K) is another arm that is priced far too low against Oakland. Kikuchi has pitched really well against Oakland in his both prior starts this season going 6 innings in both, with 12 and 6 K’s and putting up 28 and 18 DK points back in July and May respectively. Now, I get that Kikuchi has been volatile but much like Morton, this feels like a pitcher who got a $2K price drop from his normal DK price point for no real reason that I can see at first glance.

Now, we move to the bats – and yes, I know the Dodgers are on the slate against Kyle Freeland, and they will be chalk and I still don’t really feel the need to go all-in here – the pitches the Rockies have thrown at LA this series are veteran arms that know how to limit the damage in Coors and I am not going to chase high IRT’s just because of where the game is played.

The Atlanta Braves meanwhile look like they are in a prime spot today on the road in Chase Field against LHP Madison Bumgarner. Over the last 30 days, MadBum is giving up a .282 ISO and 52% HC rate with a 48% fly-ball rate to right-handed batters and here come the right-handed heavy Braves with the road match-up, 9 innings of guaranteed at-bats and some seriously soft pricing.

The Braves as a whole just feel too cheap – with Jorge Soler ($3.6K), Travis d’Arnaud ($3.8K) and Dansby Swanson ($3.9K) all under $4K here. Even the pricey guys like Freeman, Albies, Duball and Riley become doable to stack if you balance them with a $2K punt like Guillermo Heredia.

This feels like the Yankees last night (yes, I know it didn’t work out) but the pricing never made sense and what you ended up seeing was that people took notice and they became super popular as a result. This feels like to logical pivot off Coors today and you may see people try to go Dodgers and Braves together to load up on bats!

Ugh – I cannot believe I am going here and somewhere our resident Giants Win Daily Fan “GravMatt” is smiling – but I like the Giants bats against Yu Darvish. Literally, this may be the first time I have written up the Giants hitters all year but this spot seems like an ideal GPP difference-maker.

Darvish has been a total boom or bust arm recently, alternating elite starts with massive blow-ups including against this same Giants team two starts ago where he gave up 4 HRs and 8 ER’s in just 4 innings of work. Sheesh. If the pattern holds after his 31 DK point outing against the Cardinals last time out, we may see bad Yu again!

The number for Yu against LHB the last month have been – well, awful – a .476 ISO, 55% FB rate and 50% HC rate kinda awful and so that is where we want our focus with the Giants bats. Brandon Belt, Tommy LaStella, Lamonte Wade, Brandon Crawford and Mike Yastrzemski all have the splits advantage and every single one of them has a .200+ ISO mark and 40%+ HC rate against RHP the last month. The Giants also correlate incredibly well with the aforementioned Braves – making this my preferred stacking combination on the Early Slate.

Main Slate Breakdown

We turn our attention to the 5 game MLB DFS Picks and Pivots Main Slate which certainly looks like it could be a 4 gamer before we even get there with rain concerns in Philadelphia.

Honestly – let’s just get this out of the way – if that Philly game plays – why on Earth is Aaron Nola ($8.5K) against Pittsburgh? He has gone back-to-back games with 9 and 10 K’s with 23 and 30 DK points and his price dropped from $9.8K to $8.5K? What is the DK algorithm doing today?

In general, the pricing in this top range feels soft at the top end of the pitching pool today with only Lance McCullers ($10.1K) above the $10K price point. McCullers is at a nearly identical price point to the last time he took on the Angels, where he racked up 7 K’s and 26 DK points in 6 innings of 1 run ball and while he may not have the same “Scherzer ceiling” as we looked at on the early slate – he feels like a safe SP1 with a 25-30 DK point outcome.

If Nola is not an option for us – Luis Castillo ($8.9K) becomes a logical pivot point against the Nationals, coming off a dominant 10 K outing against the Dodgers his last time out. The Nationals have been a pesky offense with just a 15% K rate the last 30 days against RHP so the ceiling may not be the same but I think that’s been priced in here for Castillo who takes the ball in a must-win game for the Reds playoff chances.

And honestly – that is it – it is McCullers, Castillo, and Nola if he plays. The pitching pool is done.

The hitting options on this slate are far more balanced with 7 of the 10 teams sporting 4.5+ IRT’s so we are going to have a variety of strong hitting spots to attack.

The Toronto Blue Jays are the most talented offense on this slate in my opinion by a wide margin and we get them again on the road with 9 innings of guaranteed at-bats with RHP Michael Pineda on the mound. Pineda has been far worse against LHB this season with a .225 ISO mark and a 1.7 HR/9 rate but the right-handed metrics are not that materially worse with a similar HR rate and a higher HC rate just under 50%.

The left-handed bats on the Jays are few and far between however they do offer us a nice value path tonight with guys like Jake Lamb ($2K) and Corey Dickerson ($2.5K). Being able to use them to offset the big right-handed batters salary is a key to making the stack work and when we flip to the right side we want to find the bats that hit the slider well, since that is what Pineda throws 40% of the time to RHB.

Vladdy Jr. leads the team (shocker) with a .200 ISO, 44% HC rate, and 317 average distance traveled against the slider and guess what – last game when Pineda faced this same Jays team, guess what pitch he threw that Vladdy hit for a home run? Let’s do it again, shall we! BOOK IT!

My man Jared has been all over the hot bat of Lourdes Gurriel as a low-owned Jats pivot in stacks and he has delivered as one of the hottest bats in the lineup and he also profiles extremely well against the slider with a .331 ISO mark.

I feel like we have done this every day this week, but can we just keep using the Houston Astros free squares every day? Cool. Thanks

The Astros take on the Angles again, scoring 10, 10 and 9 runs in the first 3 games of this series and their bats continue to be free on DK. The Martin Maldonado/Jason Castro punt HR train has rocked for 3 straight nights and with Yordan Alvarez expected to sit tonight, we are going to get a whole lot of value with the Chas/Siri/Meyers trio all sitting in the low $2K range. Again – the correlation between Houston and Toronto is exceptional and allows you to really load up on these core stacks in various ways. Tonight with all the value they give us – it becomes easy to rock double aces alongside it!

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up

What is better than a full day of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots? The correct answer is nothing.

These slates look incredibly appealing and the DK contest selection is STRONG – let’s crush these slates tonight and keep building that bankroll!

Good luck tonight all! Let’s keep that hot streak rolling! Come join the Win Daily Sports Team – grab a Gold Membership and take advantage of all the tools, articles, and expert coaching we can give you to make you a consistent winner in DFS.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Welcome to the Wednesday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!

If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather to walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!

Main Slate Breakdown

Welcome my friends to the Wednesday MLB DFS Picks and Pivots edition where we have a full day of baseball but unfortunately, with rain forecasted heavy early in the day, my guess is the 3 game early slate gets cancelled and leaves us with just the 10 game main slate to focus on – no worries though, still some really strong contests on DraftKings and another great GPP slate ahead of us!

Pitching Picks

When we step back and look at this slate, it sets up very similarly to last night in that we have tons of offenses to target, in fact, 7 of the 20 teams have 5+ IRT’s including another Coors Field Dodgers chalk attack and I think we will see heavily concentrated pitching ownership as a result of the weak player pool.

Now, the last two nights we have seen some really concentrated pitching combinations with Robbie Ray/Ranger Suarez on Monday and Brandon Woodruff/Jordan Montgomery last night, and I think tonight we will see similar trends as a result of the mid-range and value arms on this slate being so unappealing.

I also think the fact that simply “eating the chalk” the last two nights at pitcher has led to optimal results so we could see people go back to the same formula which would give us the potential to make CALCULATED and STRATEGIC pivots on a set of arms that I do not believe are “must-haves.”

Take Jordan Montgomery last night as an example – here was a pitcher that was roughly 60% in single entry tournaments, and while he put up 23.75 DK points – there was nothing about his 6K effort that you simply had to have. I know results > process people will scream – “but look, he was the second-highest scoring arm on the slate” – which is certainly true, but that score at his price point was a floor game – and I am a big believer that it is only worth the risk of eating chalk on arms with ceiling game potential outcomes.

I bring that up to set the context for tonight where we have some name value up top with guys like Zack Wheeler, Walker Buehler and Chris Sale but whether it is match-up or recent form, this is another spot where it feels like we have more floor outcomes than ceiling.

Zack Wheeler ($10.4K) is likely to be the safe SP1, much like folks anchored to Brandon Woodruff last night. His 27.4% K rate the last month is solid and ranks 11th in all of baseball the last 30 days with an 11%+ SS rate that has him comfortably sitting in the top 25.

The issue for him frankly is the match-up with Baltimore as this is a team that has consistently driven floor games from arms since the beginning of August. Since August 10th, a span of 20 games against right-handed starting pitchers – only TWICE has a pitcher managed to exceed 20 DK points with Gerrit Cole (23) and Nick Pivetta (28) hitting those marks. So it is fair to ask – are you paying over $10K for the ceiling potential of Wheeler tonight or the perceived safety on a bad pitching slate?

Walker Buehler ($9.8K) has a nice price decrease and I think the fact his name value sits under $10K will draw people to him but let me paint it a different way – what if I told you there was an arm at nearly $10K tonight pitching in Coors who has a 19% K rate the last month? Would you really be rushing to roster that guy?

Listen, I am not saying these guys won’t end up optimal type plays – but I don’t see any arm tonight as someone with 30-40 DK point “must-have” outcomes that I have to find a way to jam in at all costs.

So can we dig deeper tonight – making your way down the player pool to see if we can uncover some value options either to use as pairing with a chalkier arm up top or to go a route where we simply prioritize bats?

You want to find the direct leverage off the Dodgers chalk? How about using German Marquez ($7.4K) against them?

You guys do not need me to wax poetic about the risk of using arms in Coors Field especially against an elite offense like the Dodgers, but as you can see above in this view from StatMuse, German Marquez has pitched well and consistently well in Coors Field this season.

Marquez has made 16 starts at home with 14 of them going for double-digit DK points and 8 of his 16 pushing 20+ DK points. Yes, I see the big blow-up against the Giants and the 3.8 outing against the same Dodgers team he faces tonight – that is the risk we talked about. However, I would argue that risk is overly priced in tonight as this was an arm against the Braves and Marlins that was in the mid $8K price range and we are getting him tonight at just $7.4K.

Just take the Coors Field mystique and the Dodgers near 7 IRT out of it for a second – and think about what the numbers say – Marquez has delivered 20+ DK point efforts 50% of the time he steps to the mound and only twice in sixteen trips (12%) has he actually hurt you. Just from a pure statistical probability standpoint, there is far more reason to play him tonight than stack against him.

Just below Marquez is Chris Flexen ($7K) who gets a road start against Oakland and an A’s team he has had recent success against – dating back to August 24th when he dropped 22 DK points in a 6.2 inning, 5 K, 1 run win in Oakland.

If you look at Flexen’s last month – he has been exceptionally strong against RHB with a paltry .041 ISO mark allowed and Oakland is projected to trot out 6 RHB in their lineup tonight. If you are going this route, it is far more a “run prevention” type spot than a K spot but if you end up in this range, Flexen becomes one of those arms that is not likely to hurt you and could match the floor performances we see around the slate.

Scrolling down just a bit more, this one may take some selling – but hear me out – Taijuan Walker ($6.8K) in Fenway Park. Now, you are going to look at Walker’s recent stretch of crooked numbers and wonder why on Earth I would recommend him here but I think this is an under-the-radar spot for him based on price and match-up.

The Red Sox are projected to throw out 6 batters from the right side against Walker tonight and that really is the key when you look at his pitch mix and recent trends as the last month he has a 33% K rate and 52% GB rate against RHB. If you simply look at his K output in recent starts against the Yankees/Nationals – he struck out 14 batters in total and 13 of them were from the right side.

The key for Walker against right-handed heavy teams is the slider, a pitch that he is using more and more as the season goes on – with 35%-40% usage in recent outings. The Red Sox right-handed batters all have 30-40% whiff rates on this pitch type so if it is on – there is some serious K potential.

The risk is obvious – in Fenway park and the fact they still have 3 left-handed studs in Devers, Schwarber and Verdugo that could make this go bad quickly is the argument against it and I certainly get that part of it especially with Walker’s struggles against LHB with power since the break. This is a GPP play only but considering the slate context, it is one I think we can employ.

Stacks on Stacks

Now the chalk stack again will be the Dodgers because – well, Coors Field – but with so many other strong offenses in play, and the fact I think Marquez is actually in our player pool – I think you can deduce I am perfectly fine pivoting to other bats here.

We were all over attacking Taylor Hearn in his last start against the White Sox due to his struggles with hard contact and after Chicago put up 7 runs in just 3 innings of work – not sure why we wouldn’t go right back to the well with the New York Yankees here today.

You are asking a lefty who is giving up a 55% HC rate the last month to come into Yankee Stadium – yeah, this is not going to end well. Hearn is going to rely heavily on his sinker – he tried this against the White Sox and they pummeled it to the tune of a 75% hard contact rate and this Yankee line-up has hitters up and down that profile well against it.

Giancarlo Stanton is the bat that really stands out with a .632 ISO, 44% HC rate and a 101 EV with a 363 foot average distance traveled. Seriously, those are video game numbers. This is the easy HR call of the night – Stanton is taking Hearn deep (maybe more than once).

Aaron Judge, Luke Voit and Gary Sanchez all have similarly strong profiles with high ISO/HC rates, and especially in the cases of Sanchez ($3.7K) and Voit ($3.2K) you are getting some serious value considering the upside and our desire to pay up for arms.

Speaking of value bats that are seriously under-priced – let’s go back one more time to the Houston Astros who just continue to rake and are still WAY TOO CHEAP. Houston has scored back-to-back nights with 10 runs against the Angels and tonight they get RHP Janson Junk (great name, not a great arm).

Junk has struggled so far with just an 11% K rate and a 50% HC rate and this Houston line-up just continues to offer us free squares with their barrage of $2K value. Martin Maldonado ($2.4K) has gone deep back-to-back night and dropped 20 burgers for us at punt pricing and yet here he is -still free. What I continue to love about him is that batting in the 9 spot, he allows us a wrap-around stack for the road team and the 9 innings of guaranteed at-bats so it is like getting a punt lead-off guy hitting in front of Altuve, Bregman and company.

The real HR call of the night though exists right here – yes, I know I gave you Stanton, but here is one more – Carlos Correa ($4.7K) on his birthday – drops a birthday narrative bomb. Book it.

What stands out to me with the Astros/Yankees very honestly is the insane value. Listen, the Astros value isn’t new to us – we have been using it all week with Jose Siri, Chas McCormick and Marwin Gonzalez in addition to the aforementioned Maldonado. But even the Yankees – these bats are not as expensive as they should be and you can get a really strong mid-range build with the Yankee power that feels far too cheap.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up

We have covered ALOT of different angles here today in Picks and Pivots and I really want to step back and summarize it for you because you may have gotten here and wondered how you should attack it.

The easy part – stacking the Astros and Yankees. That is the CORE of my strategy tonight as we can take two of the hottest offenses in baseball the last 2 weeks and pair them together. The Yankees ranks 1st in baseball the last 14 days in team ISO at .241 with 33 HR’s while the Astros ranks 3rd with a .226 team ISO and 26 HR’s. You are pairing two red-hot offenses with power together and the value that exists across the lineups gives you some incredibly varied correlations.

That value is the key to unlocking who and how we prioritize with our arms.

The simple truth is – I don’t feel the need tonight to play any arm. I can make cases for many (as I did) but none feel like musts and any time that is the case I am more than willing to work backward and use ownership as a guide for ways to be different in GPP’s.

Get it? Got it? Good.

Good luck tonight all! Let’s keep that hot streak rolling! Come join the Win Daily Sports Team – grab a Gold Membership and take advantage of all the tools, articles, and expert coaching we can give you to make you a consistent winner in DFS.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Welcome to the Tuesday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!

If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather to walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!

Main Slate Breakdown

Welcome my friends into an 11 game MLB DFS Picks and Pivots slate which has a little bit of everything and a whole lot of nothing. At first glance, this slate has a ton of chalk potential with a Coors Field game that has the Dodgers with a near 7 IRT that will surely draw ownership and due to the pricing on the big bats – will likely determine a similar type of build for those who choose to jam in all the expensive Dodger bats. As such, we can find easy paths to be different – and I think give ourselves an edge if the chalk busts.

Pitching Picks

On nights like tonight where we have a big team total in Coors Field, it is going to force people to sacrifice somewhere and that typically ends up being at pitcher – especially on nights where the high-priced arms are not traditional studs like we have this evening. Tonight, I think we will see heavily concentrated ownership in the mid-range (my initial lean is Jordan Montgomery chalk-fest at $8.3K against Texas as an example) and that could give us a really interesting path to paying up to be contrarian.

Brandon Woodruff ($10.4K) is the defacto ace on this slate and with a 30%+ K rate and 16% SS rate the last month, he sits firmly among the league leaders and the metrics are everything we typically anchor to when picking our SP1 and while I am not going to talk you off him – I do not see him as a priority play here tonight with the Brewers on cruise control.

Kevin Gausman ($10.1K) is my GPP favorite arm on this slate and just a few hundred below Brandon Woodruff who I expect to gain far more attention. (Yes, GravMatt – our Discord Giants fan – I finally wrote up an SF player – you happy?)

Gausman has been an elite strikeout arm the last month, sporting a top 10 K% and a 16.4% swinging-strike rate that ranks 4th in all of baseball. Gausman is an arm that was a 30%+ K rate starter the first half of the season but he really took a step back in August with his lowest K output at just 23% and much of that was due to a sharp decline in the effectiveness of his split-finger which is the key to his ceiling.

This view from Baseball Savant really shows the significant ebbs and flows of Gausman’s split-finger which was routinely pushing 50-60% swing and miss rates in the first half of the season before a MASSIVE drop in August. What we have seen though in September is a bit of a re-birth with 42, 43 and 51% swing and miss rates in 3 of his last 4 starts including a 7 K outing against the same Padres team he faces tonight where 5 of those 7 K’s came off the split-finger.

If you look at the metrics for Gausman compared to Woodruff as an example – he matches or exceeds him in every K metric whether you cut it season-long or last 30 days. The difference to me – is the Giants have something to play for with just a 1 game lead on the Dodgers for the NL West while the Brew Crew has a 10.5 game lead in the division and has no reason to push their star right-hander. If/when Gausman comes in at a fraction of the ownership of Woodruff tonight – I think we should pounce at the GPP pivot that could give us a ceiling game with his split-finger back to being an elite put-away pitch.

You want to go even more off the board – how about a pitcher in Coors Field? The spot for Julio Urias ($9.9K) comes with the potential for a high K output against a Rockies team that has offered ceiling games with strong left-handed arms in recent weeks. We have seen Ranger Suarez (6K’s and 20 DK points), Alex Wood (6K and 23 DK) and Framber Valdez (8K and 26 DK) all with strong outings – but the one caveat – all of those outings were on the road and not in Coors Field.

Now the risk for Urias won’t be hard to find – a start in Coors, plus you go ahead and click on his player name on DraftKings and the first notes talk about “limiting innings and a drop in velocity.” Remember, we get a lot of NFL DFS players coming into MLB mid-week – they are going to read that and simply skip ahead.

Here is my counter – the limit they announced post-game was 5 innings – and now step back and realize, that has pretty much been Urias outing every single start. Over his last 10 starts, Urias has gone EXACTLY five innings in 5 of those 10 starts and his lines in those starts are strong – 12, 18, 19, 22 and 27 DK points. So does this “limit” actually matter for him? I would argue no.

Now, it certainly gives him less wiggle room – any sort of bad inning and he has a smaller runway to make it back up with strikeouts so that is a fair counter but I would also say that even the slightest increase in innings/pitch count unlocks a massive ceiling. Look at the recent games where he went 5.2, 6, and 7 innings and put up 25, 26, and 30 DK points – all of which he did under 100 pitches.

Lastly – I simply cannot overlook Alek Manoah ($9.5K) against the Rays – and yes, I am aware I am recommending back-to-back arms against my favorite stack but I would be crazy not to. Listen, the game log watchers will point to the 10K and 40 DK point outing and maybe they just assume the same outcome against the same opponent – but there is more to this than simply repeating game logs.

Manoah made a significant pitch mix change last time out, throwing his slider 40% of the time which was the most he had thrown in any start this year and my goodness was it just filthy. A whopping NINE of his ten strikeouts came on the slider – seriously, think about that – the upside is just off the charts if this approach remains the same.

On a slate where my gut says – most live mid-range with Montgomery and if they do pay up it is likely Woodruff – I think we can gain an immediate edge by simply pivoting to arms like Gausman, Manaoh and/or Urias.

Stacks on Stacks

The Dodgers are in Coors and have a 7 IRT – they are going to be chalk. The end.

Do you know how many times Antonio Senzatela has gotten blown up this year in Coors? Once. Literally, only one start did he give up more than 4 runs and 9 of his 13 home starts have been 3 runs or fewer – this is chalk, I am not going to eat.

You guys know the Picks and Pivots deal by now – we don’t let recency bias impact our decision making and so tonight, we go right back to the Toronto Blue Jays in Tampa Bay. Did you enjoy getting the hottest offense in baseball the last two weeks at 5% ownership last night? Well, let’s do it again!

RHP Drew Rasmussen is a ground ball heavy arm with a low K output and a 50% HC rate on the season, with a 50%+ mark to right-handed batters. He also is being limited in his starts – throwing less than 60 pitches in 5 of his last 7 starts and never topping 75 pitches.

I bring this up because it means getting into the Tampa pen which right now is one of the worst in baseball. Over the last 14 games, the Rays pen has a 5.5 ERA which ranks 7th worst in baseball, giving up the 4th most runs and the most HR’s of any relief staff in the bigs during that stretch.

Here is where it gets interesting – the best arms in this pen are likely not available tonight. Collin McHugh pitched two innings last night and Andrew Kitteredge is on the IL so all of a sudden you see a path where you get a starter who will not go deep and then the potential for a bad back-end pen game against a Jay offense clinging to a half-game lead for the second wild-card spot.

The wrap-around stack with $2K Jake Lamb again at the bottom looks perfect for a road team with 9 guaranteed innings of at-bats and gives you a path to affording all the big bats you want at the top of the Blue Jays lineup.

The Jays correlated so well with the Astros last night – why not do it again?

The Astros get to face LHP Packy Naughton and this team is just LOADED with value right now and we could see multiple punts in this Houston lineup again with Martin Maldonado, Jose Siri, Chas McCormick and/or Jake Meyers.

That wrap-around Astros value-stack last night was a key part in many winning builds here at Win Daily as the Maldy/Chas/Siri trip ripped it up for 48 DK points and cost you just $6.3K for ALL THREE BATS. Why are we not going right back to this value tonight?

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up

Tonight’s MLB DFS Picks and Pivots slate has some serious GPP intrigue as the chalk will likely pop off in a very concentrated way around Coors Field and the Dodgers. These are the kind of slates where we can find really low-owned pivots to get completely different GPP builds with massive upside and they become the tournament nights that build your bankroll in a major way.

Good luck tonight all! Let’s keep that hot streak rolling! Come join the Win Daily Sports Team – grab a Gold Membership and take advantage of all the tools, articles, and expert coaching we can give you to make you a consistent winner in DFS.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Welcome to the Monday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!

If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather to walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!

Main Slate Breakdown

Welcome back my friends to a Monday MLB DFS Picks and Pivots slate where we have 7 games to break down and a strong tournament contest selection to kick off the week after a Sunday that was focused on football.

Pitching Picks

The overarching story of this Main Slate is that pitching is LOADED – up and down, at all price points, and with a ton of K upside. So go ahead and just scrap the idea of using guys that can just “get there” because that will not cut it tonight – you need to focus solely on the big strikeout arms of which we have a ton!

Robbie Ray ($10.6K) is the elite arm on this slate and has been the single best strikeout pitcher in baseball the last month with a 44% K rate and a 19% swinging-strike rate which rank as the top marks in the league over the previous 30 days. Ray has put up double-digit K’s in 5 of his last 6 trips to the mound with DK point totals of 33, 35, 36, 37, and 41 – just insane output on a consistent basis and the clear top dog on this slate. In a game the Blue Jays need to win as they continue to fight for a Wild Card berth, we can all but guarantee that Ray goes for 100+ pitches and the ceiling is simply one I think we have to lock in on.

What is awesome about this slate though is how the SP2 options are so deep and they sit at so many price points that you can get really different GPP builds as a result.

I think Adam Strangis nailed it in Starting Rotation that the likely chalk is Ranger Suarez ($6.4K) at the low-end of the pool who has been chalk in each of his last two outings and now gets a price drop of $1,000 despite two straight outings in which he went for 20 and 21 DK points with 14 K’s over those starts. The Ray/Suarez combination just makes far too much sense from a high/low perspective tonight.

We just saw the Yankees throw back to back left-handers at this Baltimore team in Jordan Montgomery and Nestor Cortes who struck out 11 and 12 respectively so the ceiling for Suarez here is massive and it is hard to argue against him as a strong PP/$ play.

Speaking of Nestor Cortes ($8.6K) – after that 11 K outing for the Yankees he got a minor price increase and gets a solid home start against the Rangers tonight. Cortes is kind of in no man’s land for pricing – but this price point may be the spot to get different in GPP’s – as I think the fact we have multiple arms here, will spread out any ownership you’d get.

All of Sean Manaea, Nestor Cortes and Huascor Ynoa are in this $9K price range and they all have strong K metrics to support using them as a contrarian pay-up option. Both Manaea and Ynoa sit firmly in the top 15 of arms over the last month with swinging strike rates of over 12% while both Cortes and Ynoa have lofty 33% K rates over the last 30 days. On a night where Suarez could be massive chalk (think 40-50%) – I think following ownership here and locking in a low-owned SP2 is a great way to be different.

Stacks on Stacks

You would think on a night with so many strong arms, we would have trouble getting the bats but this 7 game slate is even loaded here with big time totals for high-powered offenses like the Yankees, Braves, Astros, Phillies, Brewers and Oakland who all have IRT”s at 5 or higher.

I think that offense is the spot tonight you can totally differentiate yourself and you can do it quite easily – by taking the best offense in baseball the last two weeks.

No, not the Rays – but close 🙂

The Toronto Blue Jays are going to be the single-digit owned offense tonight that gets totally overlooked because it is setting up to be the perfect storm in that we have multiple teams with high totals where their 4-4.5 total will get totally lost and the fact they are facing a shiny new toy in RHP Shane Baz will likely put more folks on the pitcher than using the Jays bats.

This is not an indictment of Baz by any means, the kid is a top 20 prospect in all of baseball for a reason, one of the top right-handed arms in all of the minor leagues and one with NASTY K stuff – frankly, one I would argue we should play most nights because his price is too cheap considering the upside.

But flip the script a second – he has to face the most prolific offense in baseball the last 14 days as Toronto ranks 1st with 100 runs scored, 31 HR’s and a .255 ISO mark – literally clean sweep!

As I mentioned with Ray, the Jays need to win every single game right now and so they are not going to take their foot off the gas and the fact we could get them as an overlooked stack tonight on the road with 9 guaranteed innings of at-bats is just far too tempting!

Baz relies on a high-velocity fastball and a slider and this Jays lineup have bats that pop off the page against that pitch combination with high ISO/power marks up and down the lineup. Listen, Baz could come out and dominate in his first start – he could also be far too jacked up, lose his control and have to fight from behind in the count to the best offense in baseball that has to win every game and if that happens – oh boy, it could get ugly FAST.

The best part about this Jays lineup is that while the top of the order is expensive, they have some amazing cheap wrap-around potential with Jake Lamb ($2K) projected in the 9 hole which allows you a path to stack the Springer, Semien, Vladdy, Bichette types with ease by using Lamb’s salary savings in front of them!

The other high-powered offense that has some seriously high/low salary options tonight is the Houston Astros against RHP Jaime Barria. Houston is another road team with 9 guaranteed innings of at-bats and with both Michael Brantley (on the IL) and Kyle Tucker (DTD) banged up you could get multiple punts with Jose Siri and Chas McCormick both at $2K at the bottom of the lineup alongside a punt C like Martin Maldonado or Jason Castro.

Barria gives up a TON of hard contact – 58% to RHB and 47% to LHB with his slider being the primary pitch type to both sides of the plate in terms of volume but also the one with the highest opposing ISO marks.

Yordan Alvarez absolutely destroys sliders from RHP to the tune of a .436 ISO, 52% HC rate, and an average distance of 343 feet. Seriously – that’s the average. We call our shots around these parts – and Alvarez is taking Barria deep tonight on a slide piece. Book it.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up

Looking at this MLB DFS Picks and Pivots slate – boy is it a good one – and it is one I simply can’t wait to see play out with ownership because I really do think we can find ways with our SP2 options and core stacks to be totally different from the field and get massive GPP edges!

Good luck tonight all! Let’s keep that hot streak rolling! Come join the Win Daily Sports Team – grab a Gold Membership and take advantage of all the tools, articles, and expert coaching we can give you to make you a consistent winner in DFS.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Welcome to the Saturday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!

If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather to walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!

Early Slate Breakdown

Welcome my friends to a full day of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots action where we get 6 games on an early slate that is by far my preferred slate to play based on the player pool and contest selection and I plan on playing much heavier early as a result because I think this slate is fascinating and we could really give ourselves a strong GPP edge.

Pitching Picks

What I really love about this Early Slate is the pitching pool and how chaotic it can/likely will be – because it is Max Scherzer ($10.7K) as the clear stud up top and then a giant grab bag of SP2 choices to pair with them. Let’s get this out of the way – you simply lock in Mad Max and move on – do not try and get cute and play ownership or leverage – you just click him in.

Scherzer has arguably been the most dominant pitcher in all of baseball the last month with a 39.2% K rate that ranks third in baseball and a 32.6% CSW rate that ranks second in the league the last 30 days. All that has resulted in crazy high ceiling games – with 3 of his last 5 being 38, 39 and 44 DK points. If Max is Max today – that ceiling is and his place in your lineup is just the cost of entry to play this slate. Even if he is 80% owned – that means 20% of people are drawing dead by fading him.

The next step though is where it gets REALLY interesting and ownership will be critical in determining this next step but I can more or less bank on the fact most will skip right past Sonny Gray ($9.6K) and look to go cheaper at SP2 but if we simply look at recent trends – I would tell you that is a mistake.

We preach recent trends for arms all the time here at Picks and Pivots and Gray has been an elite K arm the last month with a top 20 K rate at 25.5% and a CSW rate of 32.3% that is fractions of a point behind Mr. Scherzer and 7th in all of baseball. The Reds are a game out of the Wild Card going into play today and this is crunch time for their playoff chances – they simply need their ace to deliver and match zeroes with Mad Max on the other side of this game and I just don’t see people going double aces on this slate which gives us a chance to get Gray at low ownership on a 6 gamer – if that plays out in ownership, I am all in.

Stacks on Stacks

The best part about this slate construct is that we have Mad Max as a default SP1 but it comes with a TON of high-powered offenses with power and lofty run totals that is going to make roster construction a key today.

We have the Red Sox, Yankees, Dodgers and Blue Jays all on this slate with 5+ IRT’s and oh yeah, the best offense in baseball in the Tampa Bay Rays.

Listen, you guys know I will play the Rays any day and I am totally fine going that route today if you want but I simply cannot prioritize them over the Boston Red Sox against LHP Zac Lowther and the Orioles bullpen.

Lowther is a “AAAA” arm – a depth arm that projects as a bulk reliever who by all accounts is not ready for this stage. The Orioles called him up earlier this year in May for a start against this same Boston team and he got his teeth kicked in with 7 runs in just 2 innings – then went back to AAA and pitched to a 7 ERA before coming back up and watching the Blue Jays score 7 runs on him in just 2 innings last start out.

The Red Sox offense can absolutely win you this slate by themselves especially when you consider what follows Lowther – literally the WORST pen in baseball, like staggeringly worse. The Orioles have a team ERA of 7 the last month and have given up 84 runs from their bullpen during that team – no other team in baseball is within even TWENTY runs of that total – that is how bad they have been.

I am ALL IN on this Red Sox offense today – give me five of them on DraftKings with two aces and let’s ride. Just keep one thing in mind – this team is in a virtual three-way tie for a playoff spot and we saw them pinch-hit Kike for Verdugo the other day in a tight game so there is risk in some of these platoon type plays you need to keep in mind but I do not care – this Red Sox team has the upside today to score 15-20 runs and I want all of it.

Now – going 5 Red Sox stars and double aces may seem like I found a way to circumvent the DraftKings salary cap but with $2K+ per batter for a mini-stack we actually look like we have multiple options based on the projected lineups.

The Cleveland Indians have SIX players in their projected lineup priced between $2K and $2.6K. SIX OF THEM! They are a road team in Yankee Stadium, sure I would love a team of free squares thanks!

If they don’t work out? I can wait til later – how about the Colorado Rockies against Patrick Corbin with Garrett Hampson at $2.4K with 2B/OF eligibility or multiple $2K punts in the IF/OF. Or we just wait and play the Detroit Tigers against Ryan Yarbrough, who has been dreadful lately and they have 5 batters in the projected lineup under $3K today.

Are you tracking what I am laying down?

Double aces, Red Sox, 3 man value.

Print Money.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up

My focus today is on the MLB DFS Picks and Pivots Early Slate and I absolutely LOVE IT. For GPP’s this one is an ownership dream where I think slate strategy is going to be critical and we can gain a massive edge!

If you are looking for some Main Slate breakdown – my man Adam Strangis nails it in Starting Rotation today!

Good luck tonight all! Let’s keep that hot streak rolling! Come join the Win Daily Sports Team – grab a Gold Membership and take advantage of all the tools, articles, and expert coaching we can give you to make you a consistent winner in DFS.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Welcome to the Friday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!

If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather to walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!

Main Slate Breakdown

Welcome my friends into a huge 15 game MLB DFS Picks and Pivots slate to kick-off our weekend and this one is going to be good – we have fantastic contest selection on DraftKings with big dollar tournaments and a plethora of NFL satellites we can shoot for on Sunday, so let’s dig in!

Pitching Picks

What stands out to me on this slate is just how strong the pitching pool is as I think I can make a strong case for a third of the arms as playable or at the very least, arms I do not want to pick on – and that right away gives me the ability to narrow my player pool focus both for my pitchers and for the stacks that stand out.

While the top-end arms like Zack Wheeler, Walker Buehler, Logan Webb, and Chris Sale are all interesting plays, I think there are some serious mispricing’s we can take advantage of. No, I am not talking about a wildly over-priced Corey Kluber (why is he $9K?) – I am talking about why is Dylan Cease only $9.1K?

If you guys have been following Picks and Pivots down the stretch here, you know I put a significant amount of stock in my recent form for pitchers when selecting who and how I want to pay up and I would argue the single best arm on this slate is Dylan Cease based on recent metrics.

Over the last month, Cease has a 32.5% K rate which ranks 8th in baseball, a 15% swinging-strike rate which ranks 8th and a 31% CSW rate which ranks 12th. We are talking about a top 10 strikeout arm in all of baseball and yet he is priced just 5th on this slate.

Now factor in he gets a match-up with the Texas Rangers team that is likely to throw 5-6 LHB at him and his 39.6% K rate against lefties the last month stands out as a ceiling indicator of how this game could go.

There is another arm on this slate that I think is laughably priced and it is one that I have been pushing for multiple starts here at PnP. What if I told you there was an arm with a top 30 K rate (24%) and a top 10 CSW rate (31%) who has struck out 6 batters per game in each of his last five trips to the mound while throwing 100 pitches every time – oh and he is just $5.3K.

Yep – it is Brady Singer ($5.3K) night once again.

Now, I know what you are thinking – Brian, you told us to play him last time and he promptly gave up 5 HR’s against the Twins. Sure did – and yet he still ended up with positive DFS points because he struck out 7 batters. Say it with me – K’s are King in MLB DFS.

Singer’s K upside has come against left-handed bats with a 29.6% K rate against lefties the last month and while the HR’s last game also came from the left side (well 4 of the 5 anyway) – I really think that was more of an aberration than a trend based on the fact he had given up just 1 HR the previous 6 starts total. The Mariners are projected to throw out 7 left-handed bats that have a 25% K rate against RHP the last month and I think this is another spot we can get Singer at single-digit ownership, especially after the last game.

While I get the boom or bust nature of this call – you simply do not get top-tier K upside as you have with Singer at this price point often and I tend to take full advantage of it in tournaments as a cheap SP2. This is the same match-up he had 3 starts ago, went 6 innings, struck out 5 and put up 17 DK points without getting a decision – there is 20+ DK point upside here for the same price as most top-end hitters – oh, by the way, the same ones you can afford en masse by punting with him.

Stacks on Stacks

By going high/low with our pitchers on DraftKings, it opens up essentially any path you want when building your stacks and with multiple teams sporting 5+ IRT’s at first glance, it will not be hard to find bats we want to pay for – but it will be difficult to find the ones to prioritize.

The first one that jumped out to me was the Chicago White Sox against LHP Taylor Hearn in Arlington where the White Sox get a hittable lefty on the road and guaranteed 9 innings of at-bats. Hearn’s profile as a low K, high hard contact rate (nearly 50% the last 30 days) against RHB is overlayed with a fully healthy White Sox lineup that is loaded with right-handed power is just setting up for a worst-case scenario.

The one unknown heading into today is whether Tim Anderson will be in the lineup as the White Sox have said he would not play back to back days immediately and considering he played Tuesday/Thursday – we need to see if Tony LaRussa sits him tonight.

Even without Anderson, this lineup is loaded with all of Luis Robert (.327 ISO), Jose Abreu (.311 ISO) and Yasmani Grandal (.400 ISO) all with high power metrics against LHP this season. Of all of them – Grandal is the bat I love the most as Hearn has gone heavy with his sinker usage nearly 50% of the time against RHB in recent starts and Grandal has a .308 ISO and 40% HC rate against that pitch type – yeah boys, HR incoming for Mr. Grandal. Book it.

The second team I love here tonight, and one that likely goes overlooked – is the San Diego Padres against RHP Miles Mikolas.

Mikolas has always been a reverse splits arm, giving up higher ISO marks to RHB and the way the Padres lineup is configured right now – they have decided to try Jurickson Profar ($2.1K) at the lead-off spot in front of Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. That three-man stack is just perfect as a mini-stack tonight with the punt value Profar provides AND they are incredibly flexible due to Profar having 1B/2B eligibility and Tatis regaining his SS eligibility on DK in addition to being in the OF.

Last but never least – the Tampa Bay Rays and their left-handed bats against Casey Mize. Mize just faced this Rays team and only made it 48 pitches and 2 innings with 3 ER allowed before he was pulled as the Tigers continue to monitor his workload.

When he is in – the lefties are the priority due to .214 ISO and 62% HC rate allowed – and with Nelson Cruz confirmed to get today off, we are going to get some cheap OF value like Brett Phillips/Kevin Kiermeir as a result. The big dogs though are Brandon Lowe/Austin Meadows especially when you look at the pitch type.

Mize relies heavily on his slider to lefties and both Lowe/Meadows HAMMER this pitch type with Meadows sporting a .422 ISO/45% HC rate and Lowe with a .261 ISO and 41% HC rate.

Last game, in his one at-bat against Lowe – he went slider/sinker and Lowe whacked one 315 feet with a 105 MPH exit velocity to knock in Kevin Kiermier. He took a similar approach to Mr. Meadows who flew out 330 feet to left field. It is always dangerous to profile a pitcher we know won’t get deep into the game but this feels like a spot where the Rays could get sneaky again – put Brett Phillips at lead-off and go lefty-heavy right off the bat to attack Mize before he departs and the stack could pay immediate dividends.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up

I love how this slate is setting up because I think the pitching combination we outlined herein MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, gives you so many different stacking variations with tons of salary to utilize. With the slate being this large, scores are going to be high – it is just how it is – and so shooting for those big power bats with HR upside is going to be key to a GPP takeodwn!

Good luck tonight all! Let’s keep that hot streak rolling! Come join the Win Daily Sports Team – grab a Gold Membership and take advantage of all the tools, articles, and expert coaching we can give you to make you a consistent winner in DFS.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Welcome to the Thursday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!

If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather to walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!

Early Slate Breakdown

Welcome into another split slate MLB DFS Picks and Pivots slate here on Thursday where baseball will share the stage with Thursday Night Football and a NASCAR Truck Series race which gives us all-day DFS to play across multiple sports and honestly, what could be better?

The 5 game Early Slate has the better contest selection on DraftKings and while it may not be what we are used to – I will say, I still think it is very much playable and we have some solid GPP’s and satellite contests for NFL that make it something I want to attack.

We have a couple of things to watch out for here – first is the weather, with rain/storms expected on and off all day in Atlanta which is the first game on the slate between the Rockies/Braves. Second is the start times – with the slate locking at 12:20 PM EST – this is a back-loaded slate with 3 of the 5 games starting at 2:10 PM EST and the Padres/Giants not going off until 3:45 PM EST which means lineups may not be out before lock.

The two best arms on the slate are pretty clearly Kevin Gausman and Tyler Mahle but the first glance may make you balk a bit at spending $10K per arm on these two considering neither has a 30% K rate the last month which is usually the metric we look for when paying up for elite K arms. However, slate context is important and when we get into my preferred bats you are going to see a very clear value path with bats that makes paying for the floor/safety of these top tier arms on a short slate the preferred path. It also may end up a contrarian route if we see the chalk push to the mid-range again with Ian Anderson against the Rockies as happened his last start against Miami.

Gausman at $10.6K feels like a wild overpay honestly as this is far more a 20-25 DK arm than the 30+ ceiling we would want at this price point and it’s a wild jump from his previous $8.1K rate on the last main slate he was on. However, this is an arm who has put up back to back 9 K outings (one in Coors) with 25-28 DK points in each and he gets a match-up with a Padres team he has already faced twice and put up 23 and 27 DK points with 6 and 7 K’s respectively.

Gausman gets the added bump of pitching at home where his K rate jumps to 31% in a pitcher’s park so the path to success here is clear even with the salary being inflated – he is still worth the SP1 status.

Mahle at $9.8K is the logical pivot and I think the price discount and match-up against the Pirates will make him the more popular pay-up and the likely pairing with Ian Anderson chalk (again – this is my early ownership read). The Pirates are not typically a high K match-up but the projected line-up for the Pirates has some potentially staggeringly high K rates with the team at a 27% K rate against RHP over the last month with 7 of the 8 batters sporting 25% or more K rates before we even tack on the pitcher. If this is the lineup Mahle and his 27% K rate gets – I could see a massive ceiling for him in Pittsburgh.

One of the reasons I think we have the luxury of paying up for arms is the game stack potential of Oakland/Kansas City and the punt plays on the R0yals side specifically that open up any and every path you want. With four projected bats in the Kansas City lineup at $2.5K or below, this becomes the ideal spot for value stacking to give you two top-tier arms with big bat stacks around them!

The Oakland A’s are the priority stack against LHP Daniel Lynch as this is a pitcher who has given up a .250 ISO, 50% fly ball rate and 45% HC rate to right-handed hitters the last month and the A’s are going to roll out a barrage of them.

The one unknown is the status of Matt Chapman ($5.7K) who remains DTD but if he does play, he is play #1 on this Oakland side as his batted ball profile screams HR upside. Chapman has a team-high .277 ISO against LHP this season and his 50% FB rate overlayed with Lynch’s tendencies to get the ball in the air – well, you already know – this is an HR on lay away. Screenshot it. Save it. Wait for the HR alert later – enjoy.

While the value on the A’s side is not as obvious – the OF is mid-range with Khris Davis and Chad Pinder at $3.9K and $3.1K respectively, is where I would go next because these are bats with 50-55% HC rates this season with historically strong splits against LHP and you can use them at the bottom of the order in an Oakland wrap-around stack. Remember, Oakland is the visiting team so guaranteed 9th inning of at-bats – so do not be afraid to work a wrap-around stack with the A’s bottom of the order as a way to be different in GPP’s.

The Royals side of this game is where the value is, but let’s not move past them without Salvador Perez getting locked into our Catcher spot. RHP Paul Blackburn is a reverse splits arm who relies heavily on his sinker and oh boy – Salvy time. Perez has a .317 ISO, 52% HC rate, and just a 15% whiff rate on this pitch type. Do you want another HR call? Of course, you do – Salvador is going deep today on a sinker – yeah, that’s right I am even calling the pitch type.

After that though – it becomes far more about mixing and matching value with Carlos Santana, Hunter Dozier, Kyle Isbel and Ryan O’Hearn all with $2K-ish price points that open up the world. The nice part about game stacking this spot – we don’t care about when lineups are out for the other games – all we need is this one game and we go all-in on it with so many potential paths around the top arms. Easy peesy.

Main Slate Breakdown

We turn our attention to the 3 game “Main Slate” in name only as this 6:05 PM EST slate as a far less interesting contest selection and honestly – I could see people just outright skipping it with TNF at the ready – but, we are all about transparency here and if I find a path I like – I am going to tell you we can play it. Conversely, if I don’t – I will tell you to skip it.

So here are the cons of this slate – it is only 3 games, the contest selection is blah and the pitching pool is littered with openers and long relievers.

The pros – the Tampa Bay Rays are on it.

So can we just all agree we play this 3 gamer – stack 5 Rays right-handed batters against LHP Tyler Alexander, who has a .214 ISO and 45% HC rate allowed to RHB this season and print all the money? Good? Good.

The truth is – I think the builds are easy with a Rays onslaught and even more so when you narrow down the pitching pool. Framber Valdez ($10.2K) is the de facto ace, another arm that feels too pricey considering his 20% K rate the last month but the match-up against Texas kinda negates all that and it is a spot he has already shown upside in with 7K’s and 27 DK points a few starts ago against the Rangers and a 4 K, 22 DK point performance back in July.

After that – your options get bleak – fast – and it likely comes down to the only other true SP’s – Kyle Hendricks or Adonis Medina. To me – going with Medina ($5.4K) feels like the right move when you factor in price point and the match-up against the Cubs which we know has been the single best match-up a pitcher could have over the last month.

Now, Medina is not a great prospect, in fact, he is a mediocre one at best with a 20% K rate in the minors and he is someone who has struggled at AA and currently sits in the mid-range of Philly prospects but there was a time when Medina was highly touted within their system and the secondary stuff he has – certainly plays. Plus – every time I type his name – I hear Tone Loc saying Funky Cold Medina. So there is that.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up

Today’s MLB DFS split late Picks and Picks action gives us a chance to make GPP waves when most will likely be spending the day making New York Giants and Washington Football Team showdown lineups (gross). I think these slates are actually quite playable and while I would scale back bankroll – I do think the GPP’s and the NFL satellites are worth playing both slates for today.

Good luck tonight all! Let’s keep that hot streak rolling! Come join the Win Daily Sports Team – grab a Gold Membership and take advantage of all the tools, articles, and expert coaching we can give you to make you a consistent winner in DFS.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!