Welcome to the Tuesday, May 11th edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!

If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Never Leave the Table on a Hot Streak!

Welcome back to the Tuesday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots and after a monster night on Monday, we are back and ready to keep the heater rolling. As you can see above, the Reds stack paid big dividends around our Alex Wood/Tyler Mahle combo and we hit big as a Win Daily Sports team last night – absolutely nothing better than seeing the games go final and the Discord screenshot parade begin! You simply love to see it!

At first glance in looking over this slate, there is a clear cut ace up top with Walker Buehler but what really stands out to me is the mid to lower range of starting pitchers on this slate with elite K upside and/or match-ups.

My man Adam Strangis did an exceptional job today as he always does in his Starting Rotation of going pitcher by pitcher and I implore you – guys, this is the best pitching article in the industry and if you are not reading it and REALLY listening instead of just “trying to pick plays” – you are doing yourself a disservice.

What Adam lays out perfectly is how strong this mid-range is with K upside and while I do like Buehler as a play, at first glance I see myself living in the value range with arms like Shohei Ohtani, Dylan Cease and Brady Singer.

One of the main reasons that I like that type of build for GPP play is that you can anchor to high upside K arms and you still have significant room to build around the bats that are going to win you the slate.

The spot for the offense that I LOVE tonight is in Atlanta as we get the Braves and Blue Jays and two offenses that have slate-breaking potential. Now the one tricky part – The Braves are still undecided on their starting pitcher for this game but indications are they could recall Bryse Wilson to start from AAA.

What we do know is that Robbie Ray will start for the Jays for the second time this season against Atlanta where he gave up just 2 ER back in April with 5 K’s.

Robbie Ray is a fascinating case for DFS because his K ability is always something that draws people in to use him but his advanced metrics simultaneously scream we should load up bats against him.

Take the name out of it for a second – if I told you there was a pitcher that since 2020 against right-handed batters had a .280 ISO, 48% hard contact rate, 48% fly-ball rate, 17% walk rate, and 2.5 HR/9 rate – and oh, by the way, will likely face 7/8 RHB tonight, wouldn’t you be stacking as much as you could?

If you go back to that first game against Atlanta, Ray threw his fastball a whopping 68% of the time and while the average velocity of 96 MPH may seem impressive, the reality is, the pitch generated just a 13% swing and miss rate.

Take it a step further and his most used secondary offering – the slider, which he used nearly 20% of the time in that game, has a average hard contact rate of 72.3% (yikes) when facing RHB this season.

The game logs tell you he can and has been successful but when the advanced metrics are flashing red lights and you see a pitcher, relying almost entirely on a two pitch mix that A) is getting hit HARD and B) is not generating swing and misses – it is only a matter of time before you have to pay the piper.

You start any Braves stack with Ronald Acuna and Marcell Ozuna and I would argue that Ozzie Albies deserves to be added to that list as all three have .200+ ISO marks against LHP since the start of last season. All three of these hitters mash high-velocity fastballs as well with Ozuna (.600 ISO) and Albies (.364 ISO) leading the team with Dansby Swanson also sporting a .360+ mark of his own.

This is an all-or-nothing type stack – the best kinds for GPP play – as Ray could finally have that blow-up outing in arguably the best hitter’s environment on the slate with 70 degrees and the wind blowing out in Atlanta. With Coors Field on the slate, will these Atlanta bats be overlooked? If so, giddy up!

If Wilson is recalled by Atlanta, it is hard not to load up on Jays bats considering that Wilson has given up 10 runs and 4 HR in just 12 innings of work this year with the large majority of the damage coming from the left side. Now – the hard part with stacking Jays is that they may only have one lefty in the line-up with Cavan Biggio so the “splits” are not as clear to attack.

There is one path for the right-handed hitters though and that is Wilson’s sinker, a pitch he throws nearly 40% of the time to batters from the right side. This is a pitch type that all of Bo Bichette, Marcus Semien and Randal Grichuk hit and hit well with Semien (.294 ISO) and Grichuck (.318 ISO) leading the charge.

These two teams correlate incredibly well on DraftKings with the Blue Jays infield dominant roster and the Braves likely taking up at least 2/3 of your OF with Acuna/Ozuna. With two pitchers who struggle with hard contact and opposing batters who profile well, buckle up for some DFS fireworks!

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up

We have a massive slate here tonight to sort through when making our MLB DFS picks and with a game in Coors Field, it will likely draw much of the ownership even on such a large slate.

Personally, I think the offense is the priority on this slate but I do not feel the need to eat Coors Field chalk when I could argue the Braves/Jays game environment is just as good and has far more talented rosters to draw from. The fact that the DK pricing on arms is soft in the mid-range, gives us a path to all the big bats without having to sacrifice on K upside from our bargain arms!

Good luck tonight all! Let’s keep that hot streak rolling!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Welcome to the Monday, May 10th edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!

If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Someone has a case of the Monday’s

Nothing like kicking off your week with a Monday MLB DFS slate that has just six games and likely will have only five come lock with massive weather concerns in Coors Field with freezing temperatures and rain/snow expected during the day. Oh, and by the way, I would get a strong drink before looking at the pitching options – because well, it is terrifying.

I am not going to spend a ton of time on the pitching because to me, I am likely going to work backward on this slate, prioritizing hitters while keeping a very tight core of arms in consideration.

I think that this slate will set up where people will take risks at SP, especially on DraftKings where we need two arms, but I am going to take a different approach – playing it straight at SP and looking to avoid the landmines.

That means my pitcher pool will be some combination of Alex Wood, Tyler Mahle and Kyle Gibson. The options are gross. Paying nearly $10K for Alex Freakin Wood is gross. However, we are all dealt the same hand here tonight, and sometimes on these slates people will throw caution to the wind and take shots on guys that have no business being in lineups.

So I am going to be boring and pay the premium for arms that I think can get me 20 DK points each and hope that A) my bats do the talking and B) the random arms that have ownership tonight get blown up.

Paying for two arms is going to likely take you out of consideration for the big stacks tonight but there is one stack I think tonight that stands out with elite talent and far too cheap pricing – and that is the Cincinnati Reds against RHP Mitch Keller.

Just looking at the metrics, Keller you can argue is the single worst arm on this slate – with a near 6 SIERA, an xFIP over 6, a 17% BB rate and a SS% rate of under 8% – all of which are at the bottom or minimally in the bottom 3 among SP’s on this slate of pitching poo.

This season, Keller is giving up a near 50% hard contact rate with a .196 ISO to LHB and .239 ISO to RHB. This Reds line-up has a .232 ISO mark against RHP this season with 5 batters sporting .200+ ISO marks in the heart if their line-up this season.

The lefties – Jessie Winker, Mike Moustakas and Tyler Naquin all have .280+ ISO marks against RHP this season. Both Moustakas and Naquin have .200+ ISO marks against the curve which is Keller’s primary offering off his fastball to lefties and Naquin specifically has a 52% HC rate and 94 MPH exit velocity which ranks as the top mark among left-handed bats in the Reds line-up.

The right-handed big sticks like Nick Castellanos and Eugenio Suarez have .270 and .230 ISO marks against RHP so this is a spot where you can literally go 5 deep with every single hitter sporting massive power against a pitcher who is giving up hard contact and power to hitters from both sides of the plate!

Nick Senzel ($3.1K) also becomes a super valuable part of this stack – both from a salary relief perspective, but you get a lead-off man you can use at 2B or OF on DK. Senzel is more of a stack play than a one-off as his path to value really correlates with the big bats behind him as his strengths lie in a team-high walk rate (important with Keller’s command struggles) and his team-high 80% contact rate to RHP this season.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up

This MLB DFS slate is gross – it is ugly – it is scary to put your hard-earned American or US Dollar equivalent (that is for you Ghost) – but up on the line. But here is the thing – we all have the same player pool – so we are all playing from the same angle.

The key on a slate like this where we do not have elite arms to anchor to is to avoid unnecessary risk and instead lean on the slim pitching options we do have while still building elite stacks. The Reds stack tonight is the perfect core GPP anchor because it allows us to attack arguably the worst arm on the slate with elite power bats that are priced reasonably and still allow you to pay for the “top-end” arms.

Good luck tonight all!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Welcome to the Friday, May 7th edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!

If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Where to go at Pitcher?

Looking at this slate initially, we have tons of high dollar arms available to us when picking our MLB DFS picks at pitcher but honestly, none of these are ace level arms I feel like I simply have to have.

The best arm on the slate in my opinion is LHP Trevor Rogers ($8.8K) who has a 32% K rate and 14.6% SS rate since the start of 2020 which would rank him 2nd in both metrics of all the arms on this slate and yet he is priced as the 8th highest arm on DraftKings.

Rogers just faced this same Brewers team and struck out 7 in 6 scoreless innings for 28 DK points. The Brewers have the 5th highest K rate in baseball against LHP at 29.2% and the bottom of this order, hitters 4-8, all have 26% or higher K rates against southpaws and that is before we get to the pitcher batting 9th.

Rogers is an SP1 priced far too low and I am just going to take the free square here today in all formats.

Now the SP2 decision is much less clear but I think we have one obvious punt choice. What if I told you there was a pitcher with a 28% K rate, 4 % walk rate and a 50% GB rate to right-handed batters in 2021 and will face 6+ of them in the opposing line-up?

Would you not be interested in Win Daily fan-favorite Mike Foltynewicz ($6.8K)?

Folty has his warts for sure this year, especially with hard contact, but facing a Mariners projected line-up with a 26% K rate to RHP since 2020 and a team overall that ranks 8th in baseball with a 25.7% K rate against RHP in 2021- this is a team we can attack.

What really jumps out to me – the Mariners rank 2nd to last in all of baseball with just a 29% hard contact rate against RHP which means we have a high K team that generates mostly soft contact – an ideal spot in my mind to use a pitcher like Folty who has struggled with opposing hard hits.

I want to throw one other name out and listen, it’s gross – but hear me out. Brad Keller ($4.9K) against the White Sox. Yes, I told you it was gross.

However here is the thing about the White Sox as currently constructed – they are simply not that good against RHP – they rank bottom 5 in ISO and hard contact and have the highest GB rate in all of baseball at 53%.

Why does this matter? Well Keller is a ground ball machine with a 50% GB rate since 2020 which ranks as one of the top marks on today’s slate.

That is it – that is kind of the argument. Keller has minimal swing and miss stuff and those game logs show you a massive floor with two games of negative scores this season. Yeah he went full Ponce De Leon – TWO TIMES already in 2021.

However, the flip side is he has had solid games against the Tigers and Angels where in both cases he got 9 ground ball outs, racked up 4-5 K’s and got 15-20 DK points as result.

Listen, you are not going to feel good about it – but I could absolutely see a path where Keller goes 6 innings, gets the Sox to pound the ball into the ground, limits the damage and gets a few punchouts and gives you a solid return. At under $5K – he is literally cheaper than almost every bat you’ll end up using alongside him!

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – Bats and Stacks

Now – going with a Rogers/cheap SP2 du0 on DraftKings is going to leave us some serious salary for batters and well, we are going to want that tonight. My guess is the New York Yankees will be at the forefront tonight against LHP Patrick Corbin and rightfully so.

Corbin has been, well awful, and especially awful against RHB with a .361 ISO, 50% FB rate and a 45% HC rate all with a minuscule 15% K rate. Struggles with right-handed hitters and now has to go face a Yankees right-handed heavy line-up in Yankee Stadium? Yeah, this should end well.

Stack them up, lock in the red-hot Giancarlo Stanton and all his friends and move on – eat the chalk, because it is good chalk.

Finding a second stack is where I think we can get different and get the lower ownership to separate ourselves from the pack.

There is an arm tonight that I do not think people will pick on but I would argue we should. This pitcher has given up a .220 ISO to RHB since 2020 with a 50% fly ball rate and tonight will face arguably the most talented line-up in baseball that is loaded with right-handed pop.

Welcome to the Toronto Blue Jays against RHP Jose Urquidy!

Urquidy may not be an arm we target bats against often but if you dig into his pitch data, this seems like a massive trouble spot.

It is fascinating to me to see a pitcher so drastically change their approach this early into the season but take a look at the pitch type game logs for Urquidy from Fangraphs.

This push to use the change-up more though I think has been far more match-up based against lefty heavy teams, which when you face the almost entirely right-handed Blue Jays means we are more likely see him revert to a two pitch pitcher tonight with a fastball/slider.

The fastball at that velocity is a pitch that up and down the Jays can handle and when you dig into the slider, well there are some serious individual standouts with Randall Grichuck and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. both with massive ISO marks.

Gurriel ($3.1K) is my favorite one-off HR call here based on his ability to hammer the slider. He has 84 batted ball events on this pitch type to the tune of a .336 ISO with a 90 MPH+ EV and he puts the ball in the air 70% of the time.

Remember, Urquidy has a 53.3% FB rate this year to RHB so we cant guys that can get the ball in the air and Gurriel against the slider matches up incredibly well – calling my HR shot here!

All of Semien, Bichette and Vladdy have .200+ ISO marks against RHP this season and Semien especially profiles well with a 50%+ FB rate. This Toronto team correlates really well with the Yankees as well – as you can use their super star infield with the big Yankee bats in the OF for all the power you could ask for!

The one other spot I wanted to mention is the Minnesota Twins against LHP Tarik Skubal and the brutal Tigers bullpen. Now the risk here – is just rain – as we have rain risk all day and even into tonight but I would argue, this spot is better than the Yankees bats.

Skubal on the year has a 7+ xFIP, with a massive .426 ISO and 66% FB rate to right-handed batters and well, you do not need me to tell you what the Twins have in droves.

The Mitch Garver (Catcher) and Nelson Cruz (OF) pairing could be the perfect pivot off a Sanchez/Stanton/Judge chalk build if this game is able to play and the reality is – Skubal/Tigers pen is a better match-up than Corbin/Washington.

So let me make another call – Skubal has basically abandoned his change this year to righties and is using his slider more. You know what Nelson Cruz’s ISO against sliders from lefties is? Take a guess – I will wait.

Did you guess?

It is .706. Yes seven hundred and six. With a tidy little average distance of 340+ feet and a 55% hard contact rate. Seriously Skubal – throw him a slider just so we can see how far it goes.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up

This MLB DFS slate is awesome and I love the paths that we have today when making our MLB DFS picks.

For me the core concept is locking in Trevor Rogers and two big bat stacks. The question really comes down to which SP2 and whether or not we can/should pivot off Yankees bats and load up more on Twins/Blue Jays.

Stay tuned to our Discord – come on in and ask questions and let our team help coach you! Happy Friday all!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Welcome to the Thursday, May 5th edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!

If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Cole or Bust?

Welcome to Thursday’s MLB DFS slate which kicks off early at 1PM EST with 8 games on the slate and that means all day baseball to sweat!

The very first question you have to ask yourself on this slate is what you plan to do with the clear-cut ace in Gerrit Cole ($10.5K)?

Now, this is not about the metrics or the talent, as Adam broke down in today’s Starting Rotation – he is the clear highest upside K arm on this slate. However, with the lofty ownership likely (consider Bieber last night was roughly 60% owned in GPP’s), is there merit to the fade in an effort to make our builds entirely different than those that opt to pay up for their SP1?

If we go this route, then we need to build from the bottom up – meaning, we start at the bottom of the SP player pool and work our way up to find price points we are comfortable attacking.

The first name we come to is Triston McKenzie ($6.6K) – the absolute definition of a GPP arm on this slate. McKenzie’s K rate of nearly 34% and SS rate of over 13% would rank only behind Mr. Cole on this slate but his over 21% walk rate this season has completely stymied whatever jump we expected in Year 2 and it has meant early exits and crooked numbers.

This play is equal parts terrifying and equal parts GPP perfection as the K upside jumps off the page for McKenzie in this spot as he has a 40% K rate against RHB this season and the Royals have 5 of their 9 hitters from that side of the plate.

This is not a question of McKenzie’s stuff – the first inning last game shows you what he is capable of.

I went back and watched the post game for McKenzie and what jumped out to me is how measured he was in his response, how specific he was in understanding his walk issues and how he intends to push more first push strikes going forward.

That first pitch strike issue has really jumped out when you dig into the metrics – he has dropped from 66% of first pitch strikes down to 54% this year – with last game’s 18% rate being a massive season low.

The inability to get ahead in counts, has also meant his pitch mix changes – having to rely nearly 75% of the time in his fastball last start which when you consider last season that mark was just 53%, you realize how the walks are forcing him to become a one pitch pitcher.

Now, looking at the metrics and saying – well if he just throws more first-pitch strikes, he can get ahead in the count and rack up the lofty K metrics – is an overly simplistic view and not one I think McKenzie just flips on a dime and executes. That being said, his price point is at a point where you simply do not find guys this often with the K upside he has and as a GPP player, I would rather be ahead of the MLB DFS crowds when he does make that switch and be willing to absorb the risk that these walk struggles continue.

If we stay in the same game, it is hard to overlook what Danny Duffy ($8.8K) offers us with a near 30% K rate and 14% SS rate on the season. Duffy has now gone 5 straight starts with 20+ DK points, throwing 30 innings, allowing just 2 ER’s and racking up 34 K’s in the process.

As Adam pointed out, there may be a regression in the ERA but the K rate is very much real and that is all I care about when it comes to MLB DFS picks for GPP play.

If you want to go even cheaper – the top value arm besides McKenzie in my eyes is Taijuan Walker ($7K) who is going to get the advantage of the massive split against a right-handed heavy Cardinals team which plays into his 25%K rate and 6% walk rate splits benefit.

Honestly – I think McKenize and Walker could be the absolute perfect pairing for GPPs as a way to go heavy with your bats and build a lineup that looks totally different than those who plug in Cole as an SP1.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – Time to Stack

If you take the approach to fade Cole and go K hunting in the value range, you are doing so with an eye on bats – the ones that can do some serious damage and thankfully we have multiple such spots today.

Let’s not bury the lede here – it is Jon Lester day and he has to face – oh boy, the Atlanta Braves.

Lester did exactly what he always does in his first start against Miami – straight up tight rope act. He had a 6.8 xFIP, an under 7% swinging strike rate and gave up 45% hard contact – and you know what that resulted in? 5 innings of shutout ball.

This is why Lester is my DFS nemesis – the metrics say attack and he just Harry Houdini’s it every time.

However, let’s be real – navigating the Marlins line-up is not even remotely the same as trying to get through this right-handed heavy Braves line-up – especially at the top with Ronald Acuna, Marcell Ozuna and Ozzie Albies all sporting massive ISO marks of .230, .350 and .280 against LHP since the start of last season.

That trio is at the core of my lineup building today and stacking the Braves right-handed batters alongside Freddie Freeman gives you the “late-night” or is it “late afternoon” hammer for this mid-day DFS slate.

The other stack that jumps off the page today to me is the Toronto Blue Jays against Mike Fiers who frankly, you could argue is the worst arm metrics-wise on this slate. Fiers has the highest SIERA, lowest K rate and lowest SS rate of any arms on this slate and in 2021 has surrendered a 50% plus hard contact rate to hitters from both sides of the plate.

Fire up the Molson’s because the Blue Jays are going HR hunting!

Fiers is going to rely heavily on his sinker to both sides of the plate and well, I have bad news for you Mike – the Jays hammer this pitch type. Both Cavan Biggio and Marcus Semien have .300+ ISO marks against it while Bichette, Teoscar and Grichuk all have .200+ marks. The one guy that struggles with it is actually Vladdy but you aren’t going to skip him in a Jays stack just because of this one metric.

The Jays and Braves actually correlate really well from a stacking perspective as well. The Braves are very OF heavy with Acuna/Ozuna which is perfect for a Jays team that is more infield centric when it comes to their fantasy production. Mix and match these stacks and watch the home runs fly!

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up

Nothing better than the sun shining and all day MLB DFS to play and with elite arms and big bats to stack, we are going to have a fun tournament slate on our hands.

Ownership will matter for me on an 8 game slate and if Gerrit Cole’s ownership is inflated, you have to realize that those who opt to pay up for him are likely all going the same route with their bats. So fading Cole to me is not about just fading him, it’s about fading those builds, and by doing so I can attack two high octane offenses in the Braves and Blue Jays and allow my bats to do the talking!

Happy Lester Day!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Welcome to the Wednesday, May 5th edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!

If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Main Slate Breakdown

Welcome in to Wednesday’s 11 game MLB DFS slate where we have some continued rain concerns in Boston and Minnesota, elite high dollar arms, under-priced SP2’s and some high dollar stacks to plug into our MLB DFS picks!

At first glance on this slate, the obvious studs up top in Shane Bieber and Yu Darvish jumped out, but as I scrolled down and saw the price points on Martin Perez and Brady Singer, my usual “double ace” mindset quickly shifted to a “double SP2 mindset.”

It was reassuring to see that Adam Strangis had the same reaction in today’s Starting Rotation – so it made me wonder if going with the two cheap arms was a viable route tonight.

If going with Martin Perez ($6.6K) and Brady Singer ($5K) on DraftKings, I think what makes them appealing is that they are not guys you are simply hoping “get you there” and instead, I would argue they have paths to 20+ DK point ceiling which would smash these price points and offer you ceiling level returns.

Perez is coming off a 21 DK point, 7 K outing against the Rangers and steps into a match-up today with the Tigers that has essentially been a 20 point lock for lefties this season.

As you can see in the chart above from Statmuse – every single one of the last seven LHP to face the Tigers has put up 20 DK points or more (yes I am rounding Logan Allen’s 19.7 up). Every single one of them!

Singer meanwhile, is expected back after taking a comebacker last start that forced him to leave early and his price drop to $5.5K seems – well, wrong. Singer has averaged just under 24 DK points per game over his previous three starts, going 18 IP over those starts with just 2 ER and a 20:3 K:BB ratio. Why exactly did his price go from $8.3K just a few starts ago down to this?

The point is – I think you have a strong argument where both Perez/Singer could get you in the 20-25 DK point range based on their 2021 form and opponents tonight and if you are getting that kind of performance for two punt arms – I am wildly interested.

One of the reasons I think this path is viable tonight is that we have big-time offenses and high-priced ones that look to be in elite spots – and that is the

The Red Sox will get Casey Mize to start before attacking the worst bullpen statistically in all of baseball in Detroit. No bullpen in baseball has given up more ER’s or more HR’s than the Tigers this season and with Mize failing to get past the 5th inning now in two starts, allowing 11 ER in the process, you get the double dose for Boston where they rack up runs early on Mize and then feast late on the Tigers pen.

There is another team on this slate, trotting out a hittable SP and a bullpen that ranks among the bottom 8 in ER’s allowed and HR’s surrendered in 2021 and that is the Texas Rangers taking on the loaded Minnesota Twins line-up.

LHP Hyeon-Jong Yang will get the start for Texas as a low K arm that is not fully stretched out and has to face a Minnesota lineup that is just LOADED with right-handed power. It all starts with Byron Buxton and Nelson Cruz if you are getting guaranteed at-bats against a lefty, but also we need to watch to see if Miguel Sano ($3.3K) is activated today with Alex Kiriloff injured and scheduled to see a hand specialist.

What I love about these two teams is how well they correlate when building your MLB DFS Picks.

At catcher – you can flip back and forth between Mitch Garver or Christian Vazquez. At third base, you can move easily between Josh Donaldson or Rafael Devers and at SS the same applies to Jorge Polanco and Xander Boegarts.

The price points are nearly identical on these two teams so it makes for easy mix and match opportunities, especially for those looking to MME/3-entry type builds where you can attack the same match-ups and team by simply swapping out key players in the same basic build type.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up

This looks like a phenomenal GPP slate where our MLB DFS picks can really explore avenues that allow us some high-upside builds anchored around slate breaking offenses and under-priced arms with paths to ceilings.

Tonight, I think exploring a “double-punt” strategy with Singer/Perez in an effort to stack the big bats of the Red Sox and Twins, will give you a path to massive upside which is exactly what we want for the tournament focused lineups.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Welcome to the Saturday, May 1st edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!

If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Early Slate Breakdown

We get a nice looking 7 game MLB DFS slate here to start off Saturday that frankly, is not all that obvious to navigate, especially on the pitching front as we lack clear ace arms and the offenses on this slate present difficult match-ups for the second tier arms we have to choose from.

On slates like this, where the match-ups are tough and the pitching choices become less transparent – I side with strikeout ability and simply look to avoid the landmines.

The first arm that I want today is LHP Jesus Luzardo who gets a home start against the same Baltimore Orioles team he just faced in Camden Yards. What stands out for me in that start is the high number of swinging strikes that Luzardo racked up – a total of 14 – giving him a 34% SS% in that game which resulted in 8 strikeouts.

Luzardo, like many of the Oakland arms, has significant splits as a result of their spacious home ballpark and with today’s game on his home turf, I think we could see a ceiling game. In his short career thus far, Luzardo has a 2.79 ERA at home compared to a 6+ ERA on the road, with a K rate that is 4% higher and most importantly, a HR/9 rate that drops from 1.73 to .39 when he is at home.

Luzardo’s swing and miss stuff is how you unlock his DFS ceiling and with home runs being his issue in his last start, I think the shift to his home ballpark with a massive pitcher’s umpire scheduled to be behind the plate – we lock in the A’s young lefty.

It may seem odd to go in this order- but I would argue my SP2 is Lance Lynn, who is actually the highest-priced arm on the slate. The price is at its highest point of the year after a 10 day IL stint due to a strain in his back- an injury that let’s face it – is scary when you are paying nearly $10K the first time back on the mound – and that is why he is more a SP2 for me than a priority arm.

The thing with this slate though is that I think you have more risks than “known” commodities so anchoring to Lynn makes sense as he has struck out 10 and 11 batters in his last two outings including his last start where he racked up those 10 K’s against the very same Indians squad he will face today.

From a bats perspective, we have a ton of great offenses on the slate and frankly, it is hard not to simply go right back to the New York Yankees against Spencer Turnbull today. The wind is once again blowing out at 15-20 MPH in Yankee Stadium and you get a mediocre SP followed by one of, if not the worst, bullpen in all of baseball.

Turnbull historically has been able to avoid trouble due to his high ground ball tendencies but so far in 2021 that has not been the case as his 50% GB rate has dropped to 33% and his fly ball rate has elevated to 48%. Now, it would be easy to cite small sample size but Turnbull has made pitching mix changes that might give us an idea of the change in batted ball profile as he is throwing his fastball 10% less than he has in his career and has seen a spike his his curveball usage.

That curveball increase seems counter to what the metrics would say he should do as it has the highest ISO of any pitch type at .200+ and it generates a ground ball rate 12-15% lower than his fastball/sinker repertoire.

With a 41% HC rate this season and a barrel rate of 13%, this could be a really troublesome spot for Turnbull before he turns it over to a Tigers pen that has given up the most HR’s in baseball (20) and has a 6.7 ERA that is a full run higher than any other pen in the majors.

This early slate for me is where we go with a 5 man Yankee stack – alongside Lynn/Luzardo – attacking big bats and two elite K arms and let others make the mistake of using the landmine arms that could sink their slate before it even begins.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Main Slate Breakdown

The 6 game Main Slate is in many ways, a carbon copy of the early slate – where we have solid arms but terrible opposing match-ups and more landmines to avoid than arms I actually want to roster.

I mean sure – Brandon Woodruff and Anthony DeSclafani are talented but I do not make a habit of attacking the Dodgers and Padres lineups – far more risk than reward.

As Adam Strangis broke down in his Starting Rotation today, this looks like a slate where we simply live up top and I tend to agree with him that the clear top arms when aligning talent and match-up look to be Dustin May and Eduardo Rodriguez.

In both instances, you have elite K arms, facing high K teams – and on this slate, you simply are not finding many other spots where that aligns for arms – so this seems like a spot where we simply play it straight.

Again, much like the early slate I want to anchor to a high octane offense and the one that stands out to me is the Atlanta Braves against the Blue Jays bullpen game with lefties Travis Bergen and Tommy Milone scheduled to start.

We have seen the park in Dunedin play as a bandbox and this Atlanta offense mashes LHP with all of Ronald Acuna, Ozzie Albies and Marcell Ozuna having .260+ ISO marks against lefties since 2019. You can even extend this stack to the bottom of the order with Austin Riley and Pablo Sandoval who have .282 and .215 ISO marks respectively against LHP since 2019 and all of a sudden you get a full-on 5 man Atlanta stack that can do some serious damage.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up

While we may have split slates today in our MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the reality is both slates play pretty similarly in my eyes. We need to anchor to the high K arms in the safest spots and most importantly avoid the landmines and we do so wrapped around the power stacks of the Yankees/Braves.

Enjoy the day – watch lineups and take advantage of value – weekend MLB DFS is almost always where we find the $2K punts that open up entirely new roster builds!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Welcome to the Friday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!

If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Main Slate Breakdown

Happy Friday my MLB DFS friends and family and welcome to the final day of April and what looks to be a beast 14 game slate in the majors to start off our weekend!

There are a few over arching core principles for me as I dig through this slate initially and try and parse down my player pool to a core we can really anchor to.

First and foremost – we have elite K arms on this slate and I would argue, it is a do not get cute kind of night. Up top, we have Shane Bieber and Gerrit Cole both over $10K and with them both sporting 40% + K rates on the season, it seems like getting at least one of these arms in your MLB DFS picks tonight is a necessary route.

The other arm that stands out is Andrew Heaney ($6.8K) who is just wildly misaligned with his pricing tonight. On DraftKings, only 5 pitchers are priced below Heaney but on FanDuel, only 5 pitchers are priced above him! As Adam Strangis broke down in his Starting Rotation today – this is setting up as an elite spot for him and the pricing on DK is something that I think we are going to need to enforce.

I bring this up because an MLB DFS build at pitcher on DK that goes high/low with either Bieber/Cole and then pairs them with Heaney as a high upside SP2 is going to allow you a path to a second core principle on this slate – the New York Yankees bats.

The sample size is not overly large but LHP Tarik Skubal has some wildly concerning metrics to right-handed batters – a .352 ISO and a 71.7% fly-ball rate which when you layer that with the fact we have 30 MPH winds blowing straight out in Yankee Stadium with gusts of (*checks notes) – up to 60 MPH – goodness, this seems like a recipe for disaster.

Skubal has struggled in his career with HR’s to opposing RHB, giving up 3.3 HR/9 to right-handed hitters and now he gets the Yankees right-handed heavy line-up in Yankee Stadium in a freakin’ wind tunnel – good luck kid.

This is where that Heaney SP2 call from Adam is massive – because we can easily afford the big Yankee bats like Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Gleyber Torres while still getting one of the top-tier ace arms. The Yankee bats will be chalky, they always are when they have a huge IRT as they do tonight, but this is a spot where the stack could absolutely carry you to a GPP win with an HR barrage.

Today Is The Greatest Day…

OK – we need a separate section here today in Picks and Pivots, a safe place to share thoughts and be able to talk about our greatest fears and our loftiest aspirations.

The last year has been hard on us all, and while sports coming back and the world opening up more day by day is making me feel better, there has been something missing that I am used to. What could that be you ask?

The easy answer is pants – I mean, who wears pants anymore with everything conducted on Zoom right? Well, today if it unfolds as I hope, I am going to be “pantsless-ier” – yes that is an adver-noun to describe the increased absence of pants. Look it up in the Webster’s – it is there.

Guys – there is the potential that today, April 30th, 2021 could be the very first JON LESTER DAY of the season.

Strike up the band, cue the giant cake, and drop the confetti – well, maybe.

Because here is the thing – 2020-2021 continues to give just enough before kicking us in the ole groinal region. There is the potential Jon Lester could make his Nationals debut tonight against the Miami Marlins but the Nationals are waiting to make the official call in what I can only assume is a direct decision aimed at limiting my happiness and destroying my well-being.

If you are new to Picks and Pivots, well, then you are likely super confused why I am so excited for this day but if you have been around PnP before, you know me and ole Lester have a complicated past.

Lester by all accounts for the past few seasons has been the poster child for an arm who’s advanced metrics tell you he should be getting lit up but his 2-3 ERA season after season would laugh in the face of xFIP and SIERA marks that pointed to a pitcher that should have more of a high 4 and low 5 ERA.

Lester does not generate a ton of soft contact or miss bats and for MLB DFS, that is exactly what we want to target with opposing bats and so if Lester is confirmed in today- this Marlins stack is going to be a spot I go to alongside the bit time Yankee bats.

First into my line-ups would be the red-hot Jesus Aguilar and right behind him would be Adam Duvall who has a team-leading .343 ISO mark against LHP since the start of last season. Since the start of 2020 – Lester has given up a .220 ISO mark, 42% hard contact rate and has just a 16% K rate against RHB – so attacking the RHB in the Miami line-up is ideal.

You can easily expand a stack with Miguel Rojas/Jon Berti types who are high walk/low K on base machines who give you the opportunity to get guys on base in front of the big boppers in the hope a stack puts up a big time crooked number.

Now it is 6 AM EST as I write this so maybe the Nationals change their mind, but I am putting this out into the universe and hoping my Friday Night aligns with a Lester Night. Come on 2021 – throw us a bone.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up

We have a monster 14 game slate tonight with elite K aces, high upside stacks and the potential for a Picks and Pivots special with the return of an old friend. We attack with vengeance, we empty our bankrolls, we laugh at variance and embrace regression and by Saturday morning, we will awake the wealthiest of kings!

*Disclaimer – stacking against Jon Lester only works roughly 10% of the time. For your reference, the deposit button is in the upper right-hand corner of your DFS application. Figured I would give you a heads up for Saturday Morning.

Enjoy this one guys – see you in Discord today for all the fun and games!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!