daily fantasy baseball

Welcome to the Thursday, May 20th edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!

If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Early Slate

Welcome in my MLB DFS friends to a split slate Thursday where we get 4 games on the early slate which kicks off at 12:35 PM EST. This slate is tricky because we have mediocre pitching options and seemingly endless hitting spots including what it appears to be a wind game in Wrigley Field with 17 MPH winds blowing out.

The “safest” route would be to go with a Tyler Mahle/Rich Hill duo or you can even slide down to Domingo German against the K happy Rangers however I think there are some other routes we can take in GPP’s understanding the risk.

Joe Ross ($7.1K) may have to deal with a windy Wrigley which is concern but the match-up against the Cubs is one that I think he can handle. The Cubs strike out at a 26% rate against RHP this season which is 7th most in baseball and the projected line-up without Anthony Rizzo in it, has a 27.3% K rate against righties this season.

Ross is a sinker ball pitcher, generating nearly 45% ground balls so the profile is there to pitch well in a windy environment with an added K boost. Now, Ross has also had two complete blow-up outings this year in Arizona and against St. Louis where he gave up 18 ER and 5 HR’s combined but outside of those outings he has been quite solid with 17.5 DK points per game in his other five outings.

Now if you thought Ross was risky – wait until you play Dane Dunning ($6.5K) against the New York Yankees. Take the names/teams out of it for a second and look at it this way:

Player A: 25.8% K rate this season, 3.43 xFIP against a projected line-up with a 23.6% K rate and .145 ISO.

Player B: 24.2% K rate this season, 4.27 xFIP against a projected line-up with a 24.5% K rate and .204 ISO.

Player A is Dane Dunning and player B is Domingo German who will likely draw considerably more ownership with his match-up and what Corey Kluber just did.

The risk for Dunning is obvious but this is an arm with a 56% ground ball rate overall, that jumps to a 64% GB rate against RHB which sets up well against a Yankees team that will likely only have two LHB.

Dunning outside of one really bad outing against the White Sox, has averaged 19 DK points per game in his other six starts which even includes a 1 point dud his last time out.

While Mahle and Rich Hill are the “safe routes” I also do not see them as must plays on this slate and I think prioritizing bats and taking some calculated risk at pitcher is the way to go!

The easier part with having such bad pitching is that finding the stacks is that much more transparent and with the Tampa Bay Rays in Camden Yards against Dean Kremer – we can go right back to one of our favorite spots!

Kremer this season has given up a 49% HC rate with 2.3 HR/9 and now has to face one of the most powerful lineups in baseball. The top of the order with Arozarena, Meadows, Choi and Lowe is stacked with pop but the bottom of the order with Wendle, Zunino and Kiermaier offers you the opportunity for a bottom of the order stack that will be far lower owned. No matter which way you go – this stack is at the core of my early builds.

The Reds are the other team on my radar early in Great American Ballpark against Johnny Cueto. The book on Cueto is a long one, but the story has always been the same and that has been we can attack him with left-handed power bats especially outside of San Francisco.

The Reds are loaded with left-handed pop – Jesse Winker, Tyler Naquin, Mike Moustakas and Tucker Barnhart all offer the splits advantage and guys like Winker (.327), Naquin (.275) and Moustakas (.225) all have huge ISO marks this year against RHP.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Main Slate

If you thought the four-game early slate pitching was rough, well the main slate might actually be worse! Zero chance I am paying a premium for Nick Pivetta or Steven Matz against Toronto and Boston’s offenses. Honestly, the arm I feel best about when we consider pricing is likely Vincent Velasquez ($7.5K) against the Marlins.

I normally would not go this route, but I do think the Dodgers bullpen game could be an interesting true punt option on this slate if Edwin Uceta gets the opening nod.

Uceta has operated as a long man out of the pen, throwing 54 pitches and 3 innings in his last outing and if we get confirmation that he is the “starter” today, I think he offers serious upside at $4K as he would operate as a multi-inning arm versus a true “opener.”

Much like the early slate, the main slate is all about offense and I am going right back to the match-up I highlighted yesterday with the Dodgers against RHP Merrill Kelly who got bumped back a day. Kelly is giving up a 51% HC rate this year with a 5+ xFIP and that hard contact and power is given up equally to both sides of the plate.

So let’s go right back to the well with Mookie, Muncy and Turner and if we get a cheap punt like Tsutsugo in the heart of the line-up like he was last night, it opens up a world of flexibility in our builds.

If you have followed Picks and Pivots this season, you know I have been on the Steven Matz regression train for weeks. Listen, Matz can be a solid arm when the match-up aligns but against a right-handed power team, he can be a batting practice arm – and well, the Red Sox are arguably one of the worst spots he could ask for.

With Enrique Hernandez, JD Martinez, Xander Boegarts, Christian Vazquez and Hunter Renfroe in the heart of this order you have .200+ ISO bats staring at you in every turn and Matz is an arm that has given up nearly a .300 ISO mark to RHB since the start of last year.

Pitching in Dunedin today against this line-up – yikes, good luck my friend.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up

To summarize these two four game slates – well, pitching is gross and you are going to want all the bats. Easy enough?

Honestly, I love slates like this because we all are dealt the same hand and picking from the same player pool. These are the ideal slates to take shots on arms in my opinion and fade the “safe” picks that lack slate-breaking upside and instead absorb risk for arms to build around the big bats!

Good luck tonight all! Let’s keep that hot streak rolling! Come join the Win Daily Sports Team – grab a Gold Membership and take advantage of all the tools, articles, and expert coaching we can give you to make you a consistent winner in DFS.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Welcome to the Wednesday, May 19th edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!

If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Main Slate Breakdown

Well hello, there my friends and welcome back to a 12 game MLB DFS Picks and Pivots for Wednesday Night where we are LOADED with aces and one trouble weather spot in KC which could take Corbin Burnes out of play.

On any normal slate, losing an arm like Burnes would change the slate dynamic but tonight with Kershaw/Scherzer as easy pivots in the $10K price range, it frankly does not change all that much.

It is not often we have four arms with 30%+ K rates on a slate but that is exactly what we have tonight with Corbin Burnes, Max Scherzer, Trevor Rogers and Shohei Ohtani. As Adam Strangis broke down in our Starting Rotation, the top end of the pitching pool is simply LOADED and I am not sure there is a reason to stray from the path he laid out.

Pricing matters in MLB DFS and the fact we can get Shohei Ohtani at $7.4K is laughable. We are getting one of the best arms in baseball and highest K DFS plays as a cheap SP2 and for that reason – I am going to argue strongly to take the path tonight in GPP’s of pairing him with one of the $10K aces because the salary constraints are not all that limiting.

The other option would be to treat Ohtani like an SP1 – which frankly all metrics would support and take the path of getting a $10K skillset for just $7K and then going cheaper with your SP2!

One SP2 in that scenario is Ryan Yarbrough ($6.6K) who is going to operate as a traditional starter for the Rays against the Orioles in Camden Yards. Yarbrough has primarily been a bulk reliever for Tampa but tonight he is working as a traditional starter and the last time he did that he threw 103 pitches in 6 innings against the Astros.

Since the start of last season, Yarbrough has allowed just a 25% hard contact which is one of the lowest marks on this slate, and in baseball and his 12.2% swinging-strike rate is almost identical to that of Mr. Ohtani. Yarbrough has the ability to limit the damage and still rack up swings and misses against an Orioles team with a 22-23% K rate against LHP this season.

The other cheap option we cannot overlook tonight is RHP Logan Gilbert ($4.7K), one of the best minor league arms in baseball who gets his second start against the Detroit Tigers. Gilbert showed you his talent against the Indians with a 28% K rate and 14% SS rate and I would argue, there may not be a better match-up for him tonight against Detroit.

On the season, the Tigers rank second in baseball with a 27.5% K rate against RHP – we just saw Justin Dunn (23 DK) and Kyle Hendricks (31 DK) put up strong scores against this same team and Gilbert has a pedigree that neither of those arms have. Imagine the damage you can do with your bats if you use him as your SP2!

Now going a path with Ohtani as your SP1 is going to mean you have insane money left to stack and well, if you pair him with Gilbert – you have nearly $5K per batter! Yeah – that will work!

The first stack that we come across is the New York Yankees against LHP Hyeong-Jan Yang who has given up a .239 ISO and 43% HC rate to RHB this season and here come the right-handed heavy Yankees bats!

The Yankees are expected to get Gleyber Torres back in the line-up tonight which means we likely have 9 right-handed batters in the Yankee starting line-up this evening. Aaron Judge is the clear top dog in any Yankee stack with his .382 ISO versus LHP this season but when you look into the pitch types, you find some interesting plays to use around him.

Gio Urshela has a .225 ISO and nearly 310 average distance traveled with a 41% HC rate against the change-up from lefties which is what Yang throws nearly a third of the time.

If Gary Sanchez is able to return to the lineup after leaving with cramps he also profiles well against both the change-up and slider from lefties but if we end up needing to pivot to Kyle Higashioka, remember this is a bat with a .350 ISO mark and 60% fly-ball rate against LHP so he could pay off with one swing.

The other stack that catches my eye tonight is the LA Dodgers as they take on RHP Merril Kelly and the DBacks. There is no pitcher on the slate that has given up a higher hard contact rate (41%) since the start of last season than Kelly. This year he is giving up a 50% HC rate to hitters from both sides of the plate with a .200 ISO to LHB.

The nice part about the Dodgers is they are priced quite nicely where you have the obvious elite bats in Mookie Betts ($6K), Max Muncy ($5.3K) and Justin Turner ($5.2K) but after that, you will find a ton of value with guys like Gavin Lux ($3.3K) and Matt Beaty ($3.4K) hitting in the heart of the order behind them.

Tonight – I love the GPP appeal of going Ohtani/Gilbert and then stacking the big Yankees/Dodgers bats in what could provide a MASSIVE MLB DFS ceiling!

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up

This slate looks like a ton of fun as we have so many elite arms to choose from and big dollar stacks. The Shoehei Ohtani mis-pricing is going to define this slate but it really is what you do from there that will make or break your night.

You have every ability to pay for a $10K arm with Ohtani or you can use Ohtani as a discount SP1, pay down for Logan Gilbert in an elite match-up against the Tigers and use that salary to stack the Dodgers and Yankees together!

Good luck tonight all! Let’s keep that hot streak rolling! Come join the Win Daily Sports Team – grab a Gold Membership and take advantage of all the tools, articles, and expert coaching we can give you to make you a consistent winner in DFS.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Welcome to the Tuesday, May 18th edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!

If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Main Slate Breakdown

Well hello, there my MLB DFS friends, and welcome into a monster 14 game slate here on Tuesday Night where we have some rain concerns at first glance in MIL/KC, PIT/STL, WAS/CHC and CWS/MIN.

We have a ton of arms on the hill but frankly not many we are clamoring to use and that likely means far more stacks we like than pitchers we feel like we need to have. Are you ready to dive in?

As a GPP player, I love slates like this where there are no “obvious” plays – we do not have a deGrom on the hill and there is no game in Coors Field. In fact, as of this writing, we have just one team with an IRT over 5 so this could be the kind of slate where ownership is wildly spread out or it could inflate a few players/spots as groupthink and optimizers drive MLB DFS lineup builds.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Arms

As Adam laid out in Starting Rotation, I think this is the kind of day to live up top with your arms – more for safety/floor than “true ace ceiling” and the fact that our preferred stacks are on the cheaper side and allow us the ability to spend up on arms.

Rather than simply echo what our pitching GOAT Adam wrote up, I want to take a different spin on the top end of the range and how I think we can attack it.

First and foremost, I do not think any of the arms are “must haves” – not Woodruff, Wheeler, etc – so rather than build with pitchers first, work backwards in your builds today and build the stacks you want and see what arms fit into your build at the end.

Adam made strong cases for most of the guys at the top – but the one guy I wanted to dive into was Julio Urias ($9.6K) against the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Urias is the 4th highest priced arm on this slate which when you consider some of his advanced metrics, makes him quite the steal. The Dodgers LHP ranks top 10 in baseball in CSW% (called + swinging strike rate) and CSTR% (called strike rate) and ranks top 25 in K% among all qualified arms.

Much of this is driven by a 77.7% first strike rate, by far the highest in baseball and a key driving force in Urias success as he is able to get ahead of hitters and then use his absolutely nasty curve ball as a put away pitch.

If you look at pitch type values, the curve from Urias sits among the top in all of baseball, sitting only behind Brandon Woodruff, Lance McCullers Jr., and Yu Darvish. Urias has anchored to this curve more and more, throwing it 25% last season, and now this year he is leaning on it nearly a third of the time.

Not only does Urias have demonstrated K upside, but he also has the ability to limit the damage as his 24.2% soft contact rate ranks second in all of baseball this season. Even better – Urias ranks among the top 5 in all of baseball with just a 3.6% walk rate. So a pitcher who attacks the strike zone does not walk batters and then either gets you to whiff or make weak contact.

All this sounds pretty darn good to me!

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – Time to Stack

Now the fact that we do not have a ton of must-have arms on tonight’s slate means we will have our pick of big-time bats and my favorite tonight is the Tampa Bay Rays against Matt Harvey.

Harvey is coming off his worst outing against the Mets his last time to the mound where he gave up 7 runs in just 4 innings of work and his pitch to contact approach/lack of swing and miss stuff finally came back to bite him in 2021.

The Rays are the type of line-up that I think could make this a trend as they are able to get very lefty-heavy with Ji-Man Choi and Francisco Mejia back in the line-up and that could spell serious trouble in Camden Yards for a pitcher like Harvey who has been fly ball heavy to lefties this season.

The Rays lefties like Austin Meadows (.307 ISO), Brandon Lowe (.258 ISO) and Joey Wendle (.209 ISO) all have demonstrated power and Meadows to me is the one player that jumps off the page and anchors this stack.

Harvey is relying on his fastball/sinker to get ground ball outs, but where he has had trouble is against left-handed batters who can get the ball in the air to counter act that – enter Meadows who has a team leading 58% fly ball rate against RHP this season.

The way to beat the Rays is with strikeout arms that can take advantage of their high swing and miss rates – and the issue is, Harvey simply is not that guy. The top of this Rays line-up is just loaded with power – as you have Randy Arozarena at the top, followed by a parade of lefty power.

Now the last time we stacked the Rays was Thursday against Jameson Taillon and we had ourselves a little GPP takedown. Tonight, Taillon goes back to the mound in Texas against the Rangers and this is the mini-stack I want to load up around my Rays bats tonight!

We talked about this with the Rays that night, but Taillon right now is struggling mightily keep the ball on the ground and is especially struggling with left-handed power – to the tune of a 50% FB rate and .305 ISO mark.

So – a pitcher who is struggled with left-handed power and fly ball issues heads to Texas and faces Joey Gallo. I think you know how this ends.

Gallo is arguably one of my favorite plays on the slate as he is by far the most fly ball heavy bat in this Texas line-up, with a near 50% FB rate against RHP since 2019 and has a .300+ ISO mark against the fastball/curveball which are Taillon’s main weapons to LHB this season.

The other bat I love here is Nate Lowe who has been mashing RHP this season to the tune of a .256 ISO and matches up quite well against Taillon’s pitch types with a .522 ISO against his fastball velocity and has a 50% hard contact rate against the curveball.

If you look at the stacks I mentioned here in the Rays and Rangers – I think they get you DFS ceilings but in two different ways. The Rays are going to be by stringing hits and runs together – which means you want to go 4-5 deep with them to maximize your DFS output. The Rangers on the other hand is more home run hunting – so mini-stacking with Gallo/Lowe gets you the ceiling in what you hope pays off with just a few swings of the bat!

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up

The more I dig into this MLB DFS slate on Tuesday the more I really like it for GPP’s as we have so many tournament routes and comfortable pivots off chalk if it ends up materializing.

While pitching may not be the best, I would argue the player pool is incredibly condensed and it is largely top heavy. I am not getting cute tonight and picking on cheap arms to get bats – especially not when I can pay up and still get elite stacks like Tampa and Texas that give me upside and salary relief.

On a slate like this, I want to anchor to top tier strikeout arms and build around power stacks like Tampa and Texas that can take advantage of the opposing arm’s weakness for what should be big time DFS outputs!

Good luck tonight all! Let’s keep that hot streak rolling! Come join the Win Daily Sports Team – grab a Gold Membership and take advantage of all the tools, articles, and expert coaching we can give you to make you a consistent winner in DFS.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Welcome to the Monday, May 17th edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!

If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Main Slate Breakdown

Happy Monday my MLB DFS friends – after a big weekend of winning here at Win Daily Sports, we are back to kick off this week with a strong 8 game slate on Monday Night!

What stands out to me on this short slate is just how top-heavy the pitching is and anytime we have such highly concentrated ace level arms available to us, my first reaction is to see if we can anchor to double-ace type builds.

With Gerrit Cole, Yu Darvish and Walker Buehler all sitting over $10K on DraftKings, I think we have to outline the potential path in our MLB DFS picks to anchor to two of these high K arms with Cole and Darvish being the primary pairing.

As Adam outlined in Starting Rotation, the path to ceiling is just massive here for Cole against a K-heavy Texas team and Darvish taking on the Rockies outside of Coors Field. Anchoring to both SP1’s will leave you with $3.6K per batter for the rest of your roster and frankly, I think with the insane amount of punt hitter value tonight, there is every reason to start your day with this build in mind.

Even with two aces at pitcher, the reality is that on this slate we have high upside power stacks with strong value within them and my favorite tonight is the LAA Angels against LHP Sam Hentges.

Hentges is an arm that the advanced metrics will tell you is due for some serious regression as his 3.29 ERA is well below his xERA of 5.8 and with a 98% left on base rate, he is walking a dangerous tight rope.

Hentges has struggled this year with right-handed bats to the tune of a .317 ISO with a 42% hard contact rate and 4 HR/9 rate allowed. Well, with Anthony Rendon back in the heart of this Angels line-up, this becomes a nightmare spot for Hentges.

Not only will he have to navigate Rendon-Ohtani-Trout in the middle of this Angels order but he will likely have a total line-up of 7 right-handed batters to make this splits disadvantage even worse. While the “Big 3” are expensive, the Angels do offer value with Taylor Ward and Justin Upton sitting in the mid $2K range on DraftKings which allows ut o easily stack the Angels big bats and work value around there for a full-on 5 man stack!

Hentges pitch type looks like trouble here as well as he relies nearly a third of a time on his curveball and all of Ward, Upton and Trout have .500+ ISO marks against that pitch type while Rendon leads the team with a average distance traveled of 358 feet on a .316 ISO mark of his own.

Going with a Cole/Darvish 1-2 punch and a 5 man Angels stack, will leave you with $2.6K for the last 3 spots in your build – more than enough wiggle room considering the amount of near $2K punts available throughout projected lineups on Monday!

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up

In stepping back and looking at this slate, there are some key priority build paths that I see tonight and the most important is anchoring to two aces. Listen, we have two arms up top in Cole/Darvish that have league leading swing and miss stuff and they both have advantageous match-ups this evening. Now combine that with the lack of appealing value arms and I am going to take the path of least resistance with my arms tonight.

That means we have to find ways to save salary with our bats without sacrificing power and upside. That my friends is where the Angels bats come into play as we can stack the big three of Trout-Rendon-Ohtani and do so by using the value around them in Ward/Upton for a high upside and balanced cost stack against the Indians!

Good luck tonight all! Let’s keep that hot streak rolling! Come join the Win Daily Sports Team – grab a Gold Membership and take advantage of all the tools, articles, and expert coaching we can give you to make you a consistent winner in DFS.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Welcome to the Thursday, May 13th edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!

If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Early Game Slate

Another day of MLB DFS split slate action for us on Thursday and it begins with a five game slate at 12:20 PM EST.

First and foremost, we have a slate-breaking ace in Corbin Burnes on this slate who possesses a massive 45.4% K rate this season and 20% swinging-strike rate and has put up 30+ DK points in 4 of his first 5 starts of the young season including a 9 K 30 point outing against the same St. Louis team he faces today.

The only real “concern” with Burnes is that he is coming off the COVID list after testing positive, however Burnes was asymptomatic during his quarantine. Unless we hear about some definitive pitch count prior to the game, I am simply locking him in as a core play on this slate.

The SP2 question is far tougher and while I do think there is a path to going double-aces with Jack Flaherty, the pricing on the bats dictates that I likely need to go cheaper and that leads me to two arms – Michael Pineda and Daniel Lynch.

As he always does – Adam Strangis laid out the path for both of these arms in his starting rotation where I think there are strong arguments to be made for both here today but there is risk in using either. Personally, I am with Adam though that the risk on Lynch is largely priced in at $5.7K and the season-long metrics would tell us we can attack Detroit with LHP this season.

Listen, Lynch got his teeth kicked in against the White Sox but a lefty struggling against the White Sox is not something I am going to be surprised by and Mike Matheny said after the game that Lynch was tipping pitches and they went to work to address it.

The reality is, Lynch has NASTY stuff and it all starts with the slider he threw nearly 40% of the time in his first start to the Indians.

The Tigers projected line-up has one batter in Robbie Grossman who profiles well against that pitch type, but otherwise the rest of the lineup all has 35% or higher whiff rates against that pitch type so there is some serious K upside here for Lynch with his pedigree.

One of the major arguments for Lynch on DraftKings as an SP2 is that he allows you a path to big bats while still being able to pay up for Corbin Burnes and that is one of the main strategy foundations for me on this five gamer – because I want to make sure I have big time pieces to the Braves/Blue Jays bats.

The Braves get Ross Stripling, a pitcher that has struggled mightily early in the year especially to right-handed batters with a near 3 HR/9 on the back of a .306 ISO and a walk rate at 11% that is equal to his K rate (fyi – that is not a good thing).

Stripling struggles with right-handed power is well, in for a real treat when you consider the right-handed power the Braves posses and the even scarier part is that they profile well against his pitch types.

Stripling has significantly upped his slider usage this season, a near 10% jump from the prior two years and is using it nearly 30% of the time to right-handed batters. The problem is he is giving up a .417 ISO and 42% HC rate with that pitch and in comes Ronald Acuna Jr. who has a .301 ISO and 52% hard contact rate against that pitch type. If Stripling goes to the curve, which he throws 20% of the time instead – well Acuna has a .311 ISO and 48% HC rate against that pitch type.

When Acuna hits a bomb in the first at-bat and you vault up the early leaderboards, you can smile and know we called it. Acuna double-dong day is coming – and I am here for it.

While Acuna profiles well, so too does Marcell Ozuna with a .246 ISO against the curve and a .330 ISO against the low 90’s velocity fastball. Now this stack can get expensive if you want to roll out Freddie Freeman and/or Ozzie Albies as well but you may get some true punt value you can use to offset that with Christian Pache ($2k) and Jeff Mathis ($2K) who could draw the start in a day game after William Contreras caught the last two games.

The Blue Jays will take on RHP Charlie Morton, who has surrendered 15 runs in his last three starts, spanning just 11 innings and one of those starts came against the same Jays team he faces today. Morton relies heavily on his curve to RHB, nearly a third of the time, and oh well – Vladdy Jr. and Bo Bichette both happen to hit said pitch to the tune of .250+ ISO marks and 45% hard contact.

For me in a roster build today – my goal will be to go 5-3 with the Braves being the priority, while a go power and home run hunting more on the Jays side all while locking in Corbin Burnes as my SP1.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Main Slate

The six-game Main Slate has a contest in Coors Field with an 11 IRT, a $2K Jared Kelenic making his MLB debut for the Mariners (thanks to Brodie Van Wagenen), and pitching options that well, are quite limited.

As Adam outlined in Starting Rotation – the pitching pool is SUPER dicey tonight and I think it leads me to either a path where I go double-aces with Christian Javier and Trevor Rogers or pair one with a dirt-cheap Logan Gilbert at $4K as a way to get Coors Field exposure.

Javier and Rogers have the kind of elite K stuff I want to anchor to in my MLB DFS picks with 30% and 33% K rates respectively this season and having two pitchers with demonstrated 30+ DK point ceiling on a slate where everyone tries to jam in Coors bats could give us massive leverage on the field.

The truth is, getting these two arms is not going to preclude you from missing out on big bats and I think there is a really sneaky stack tonight in the Tampa Bay Rays that offer us massive upside at likely no ownership and price points that make it easy to pay for the two big arms.

The Rays take on RHP Jameson Taillon in Tampa tonight and while the name value may keep you from picking on him, the metrics should not. Taillon has massive red flags – giving up .200+ ISO marks to both sides of the plate with 50% + fly ball rates.

The Rays order has 4 hitters in the heart of it with .220+ ISO marks against RHP since the start of last season with Randy Arozerena, Austin Meadows, Brandon Lowe and Mike Zunino. Additionally, Meadows and Zunino have 55%+ fly ball rates against right-handed pitching which sets them up for a batted ball profile that aligns with Taillon’s red flags.

The Rays are the kind of team on a short slate like this that has the demonstrated power to rival any other team and I think the combination of Coors Field and the lofty pricing on some of the Rays will make them virtually ignored. However just a quick glance at this slate and you will see we have multiple $2K type hitting punts – some even in Coors Field with Connor Joe and Josh Fuentes ($2K and $2.3K) respectively that allows you a path to go 5 man Rays with 3 man Rockies using the punt 1B/3B duo from the Rockies!

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up

We have two slates today that play somewhat similarly in that we have limited pitching options while also having clear big bats we want to anchor to. On slates like these, prioritize pitching FIRST and work your way into builds where we can still get the big bats. The day games are almost guaranteed to get some punts on a day game after a night game and the Main Slate has multiple hitters at minimum price that allow you to stack big bats and still get the arms you need!

Good luck tonight all! Let’s keep that hot streak rolling!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Welcome to the Wednesday, May 12th edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!

If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Three Game Early Slate

Happy Wednesday my MLB DFS family – we get a split slate of DFS action with a 3 game Early Slate that kicks off at noon and a 10 game Main Slate at 7 PM EST and neither slate will have Coors Field chalk which makes this even better!

The early three-gamer is actually pretty solid and there is nothing better than some mid-day DFS action so I wanted to give my quick thoughts on this slate.

The pitching is simple, honestly, I think there are only two viable options with Sonny Gray and Taijuan Walker – the only two arms on this slate with swing and miss ability and the pricing is low enough where you are still able to build big stacks around them.

I would argue that staying right here with the Reds/Mets is the ideal way to attack this slate for bats as well. Listen, the Cubs bats are the top stack on the slate against LHP Sam Hentges however they are insanely pricey with the top 4 hitters all at $5K or higher on DK and that assumes they even play, as Kris Bryant and Javier Baez both missed Tuesday’s game with illness/injury.

The Reds take on RHP Trevor Cahill, who is surrendering a .204 ISO and 47% HC rate to LHB this season with a reliance on a change-up he is throwing nearly 30% of the time and it is getting hammered to the tune of a .438 ISO and 40% HC rate.

Scroll through the LHB on the Reds – Winker, Moustakas and Naquin – all of them have .250+ ISO marks and 40% plus hard contact rates against that pitch type which makes them an ideal core stack to build around to attack Cahill’s pitch type.

While the right-handed batters have not been the spot to target, I will say – a Eugenio Suarez addition to a Reds stack looks amazing here today. Cahill relies nearly 40% of the time on his sinker to RHB – Suarez has a .340 ISO against that pitch type and most importantly, he has a 51% fly-ball rate against RHP this season and has a low GB rate against that pitch type. So where Cahill wants to pound righties into the ground with the sinker, Suarez has the swing profile to lift it and take him deep.

Now the Mets – listen, it’s been a while since we wrote up a Mets stack and this is not a “revenge narrative” against Matt Harvey in his first start back in Citi Field. The reality is, Harvey is a much better pitcher this year but he still is an arm with a low K rate and a high fly ball rate, especially to LHB with a 13% K rate and near 50% FB rate.

Harvey has been able to limit the damage by relying on his change-up but the reality is, hes generating almost no swing and miss stuff and even his soft contact rate at just 14% is low. So while the big crooked innings haven’t been there – he is also relying on pitching to contact and BABIP to help him. The Mets are a full stack or stay away for me as a result because what you are looking for in this spot is multiple hit innings, where the lack of a put away pitch leaves working with runners on base and the Mets using their left-handed heavy line-up to attack their ex-franchise star.

The core for me here is going to be the lefties – Conforto, Dom Smith and Lindor. Welcome back to New York Dark Knight – I hope you get a well-deserved ovation – then the Amazin’s hammer you for a DFS GPP takedown!

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Main Slate

Oh man, not only do I get Matt Harvey back in New York but I get a Jon Lester day too? Is it my birthday?

This slate at first glance is incredibly top heavy with pitching – meaning I think we have to build around “double aces” and I also think with how strong this slate is, it is going to make finding bats that much harder.

Thankfully, we have Jon Lester against Philadelphia in what sets up perfectly as the Philly bats are cheap enough where you can lock in two high-dollar elite K arms like Gerrit Cole, Brandon Woodruff or Danny Duffy as an SP2 and still 5 man stack the Phils against our favorite lefty!

As Adam outlined in his Starting Rotation – I simply see no reason to move off the “top tier” – especially when I can get the stacks I want around them!

You guys know the deal by now, Lester has a near 6 xFIP and has a .200 ISO and 40% HC rate and will face an almost entirely right-handed Phillies line-up with the exception of Bryce Harper and Didi Gregorious.

It looks unlikely that JT Realmuto will play after an injury last night but the Phillies still have Andrew McCutchen with a .290 ISO to LHP, Alex Bohm (.260) and Rhys Hoskins (.310) all with strong power numbers on the right side of the splits.

I am always looking for strong correlation in my stacks to find teams that work well together and if we assume that Realmuto is out for the Phillies, can I find a stack to work around them with a strong Catcher? Enter the Kansas City Royals against RHP Casey Mize.

While Mize has struggled more against LHB, Salvador Perez profiles extremely well against Mize’s primary pitch types with a .300 ISO against the slider and a .500 ISO mark against the sinker which is what Mize throws nearly 60% combined to right-handed batters this season.

Any time that we go Royals – for me the mini-stack starts with the C/2B combo of Salvy/Whitt Merrifield and I am hopeful today we get Ryan O’Hearn in the lineup.

O’Hearn has been in a straight platoon but with a .241 ISO against RHP this season aligning with Mize’s .250 ISO and 52% HC rate allowed to LHB, he becomes a tremendous salary saving option to use in a Royals mini-stack.

Going with a Phillies/Royals 5-3 type build will still allow you to pay up for arms and that is a path that could pay big time dividends in GPP’s this evening!

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up

Two Slates and all day MLB DFS to talk about? Yes please!

The Early Slate is all about Gray/Walker and the Reds power bats with some Matt Harvey regression as an appetizer.

The Main Slate – well this is where you get a Picks and Pivots favorite – the ability to go double aces AND 5 man stack against the one and only Jon Lester. Fire up the band – make sure the Phanatic is ready, because tonight the Phillies bats take down a GPP!

Good luck tonight all! Let’s keep that hot streak rolling!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!