daily fantasy baseball

Welcome to the Thursday, June 3rd edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!

If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Early Slate Breakdown

Welcome into another split slate day of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we have a full day of baseball which kicks off at 12:20 PM EST with a four game early slate that is free from weather concerns.

If you are playing this four-game early slate, especially in tournaments, these are the types of slates where you need to take stands and think strategically as we have a clear ace in Gerrit Cole and a game in Coors Field.

There is a path here today where you can go with Cole and a game stack in Coors by using a punt SP2 like LHP Tucker Davidson ($4.9K) who is being called up by the Braves to make a spot start against the Nationals. Davidson made a spot start earlier in the year against the Mets, striking out 5 on his way to 14 DK points, and considering this is one of the Braves top prospects who has a 35% K rate in AAA – the path to hit value is clear and I would argue he is one of the keys to unlocking this early slate.

However, on a short slate like we have here – I would argue it is not the time to play it straight. If you go the route I outlined above and it “hits” – how do you actually make waves in a GPP? You are banking on picking the “right bats” in a Coors Game stack and hoping Brock Holt outscores Josh Fuentes as an example.

If you are playing cash games, Cole/Davidson and Coors but if you are playing GPP – screw that noise, let’s get weird.

The New York Yankees bats have been ice cold, but I think in this spot against LHP Ryan Yarbrough, they have the potential for a multi-HR type of day. Yarbrough has surrendered a .200 ISO and 40% HC rate to RHB this season and has given up 3 HR’s in two of his last three games with all of them coming from the right side.

Yarbrough relies heavily on his cutter, nearly 50% of the time – a pitch that Aaron Judge hammers to the tune of a .438 ISO and a 73% HC rate with an average exit velocity over 100 MPH! If you are calling HR shots today – Judge is #1 on my list.

The other players that profile well here are DJ LeMahieu and Gio Urshela who have .300 and .205 ISO marks and 40% HC rates against the change-up with is what Yarbrough throws a third of the time to RHB.

The Rays lefty does not get blown up often so this is less a 5 man stack and more a 3-4 man balanced stack approach where you are going HR hunting with the Yankee right-handed hitters.

You are probably thinking – what is so weird about the Yankees stack? Seems like a logical pivot off Coors Field right?

Well, what if I argued we stay here and game stack this spot and go with Tampa Bay Rays bats against RHP Gerrit Cole.

Oh – now, you are listening, aren’t you?

Listen, Cole is the clear top arm on the slate and his massive K upside is going to likely put him at 80-90% ownership even in GPP’s due to the lack of other options.

Personally, I think simply fading him is not enough of a leverage move – I think if you go this route of fading him, you need to double down and use Rays bats against him.

Yes, I am Mr. Tampa Bay when it comes to MLB DFS – no team has won me more money this year – but this is not blind loyalty, this is strategy. I talk about this every single day – there has been no better offense in baseball the last two weeks than Tampa Bay and if we think they are ignored in DFS on most days, imagine what is going to happen with Cole on the mound.

On a four game slate you are never going to find offenses that are single digit owned that are this talented up and down – so take your shot.

Take the names out of it for a second.

What if I told you there was a pitcher who has a HR/9 rate of over 2 per game against LHB at home since 2020, who has a .225 allowed ISO mark against LHB since the start of last season with a 50% fly ball rate and a 41% HC rate?

What if I told you there was an offense that has a team ISO over .200 against RHP since the start of last season with each of the top four in the projected line-up sporting a .200+ ISO mark?

Guys – that is the Rays against Cole. Seriously – take the fact its Gerrit Cole out of your mind – if I told you the Rays LHB were facing an arm who has given up a .225 ISO and 40% + hard contact rate in Yankee Stadium’s short porch, you’d be all over it on metrics alone.

Now can the Rays strike out 10+ times in this game – abso-frickin-lutely. Can they strike out a ton while also hammering multiple home runs? Also, yes. They do it all the dang time.

This is why I think you take the approach of fading Cole but doing so with a script that the Rays get to him for HR’s. Listen, if Cole is off and running and mowing hitters down – you are cooked.

If a 90% owned Cole comes out like he did 3 starts ago against Texas and gives up hard contact, HR’s, and puts up single-digit DK points – and you have the bats who did the damage at no ownership, well guess who is sniffing an early takedown!

See you at the top. Oh by the way – Austin Meadows homer today. Book it.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – Main Slate Breakdown

As we pivot (see what I did there) to the Main Slate we have 8 games to choose from in our MLB DFS picks and this slate to me feels far more “typical.”

The pitching options on this slate are super-condensed and very top-heavy with Yu Darvish and Lance Lynn standing out at the top as Adam Strangis outlined in Starting Rotation.

I will add one other name to that list in Taijuan Walker ($10.3K) who has seen his price just SKYROCKET. This guy was $7K a month ago and now we are paying the market price for him after he continues to be one of the best offseason acquisitions for the NY Mets.

Walker came back off the IL and dominated the Braves with 8K’s and just 2 hits allowed and will pitch in San Diego tonight against a Padres team that could be without Fernando Tatis Jr. with an oblique injury and Tommy Pham & Ha-Seong Kim who left Wednesday’s game after a scary collision that required both players to leave the game and get CT scans.

I think there will be serious sticker shock on Walker tonight but pitching in San Diego against a potentially banged-up squad, could make him a high-end low owned pivot to pair with either Darvish or Lynn tonight.

Going some variation of “double aces” still leaves us with solid salary options and I think it gives us the chance to game stack some interesting spots with my favorite being Arizona/Milwaukee.

RHP Seth Frankoff will pitch for Arizona, fresh off his 7 ER outing in just 5 innings and he has now given up 12 ER in his last 9 innings. Frankoff has been dreadful against LHB with a monster .286 ISO mark and this Brewers team sets up to be super left-handed heavy with Wong, Voeglbach, Yelich, Narvaez, Shaw and Bradley Jr.

This is kind of a worst case scenario for Frankoff with the splits lining up as they do and after reportedly “tipping pitches” last game, let’s not pretend like the Brewers are not licking their chops to get the same match-up the Cardinals just hammered.

Update: It is not confirmed but it sounds like Jon Duplantier may start instead of Frankoff. Literally nothing changes. Duplantier has a 5+ xFIP in his career at the Major League level and a 45% HC rate and is essentially a two pitch pitcher with limited swing and miss stuff.

The Arizona bats on the other side of this game have similar splits appeal against LHP Brett Anderson as this Arizona team has some eye-popping metrics against lefties.

Carson Kelly (.310 ISO), Ketel Marte (.455 ISO) and Eduardo Escobar (.286 ISO) have all hit lefties and hit them for power this year. If we dig deeper into pitch profile, Anderson throws his sinker nearly 50% and guess who hammers that pitch – all three of the guys I just mentioned!

Kelly and Marte have .250+ ISO marks with 40% HC rates but it is Escobar who is the big dog with a monster .475 ISO and 58% HC rate. One other name – punt OF Tim Locastro ($2.3K) who has a .368 ISO and 44% HC rate against that pitch type.

Double aces and a game stack you say? Sounds like Picks and Pivots gold!

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up

We have a full day of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots and what could be better? The truth is, these slates played wildly different with the early slate being more about strategy and the main slate played more traditionally.

In both cases, we have clear top spots but I also think we have logical pivots that can make our builds different and take us to the top of the GPP leaderboard!

Good luck tonight all! Let’s keep that hot streak rolling! Come join the Win Daily Sports Team – grab a Gold Membership and take advantage of all the tools, articles, and expert coaching we can give you to make you a consistent winner in DFS.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Welcome to the Wednesday, June 2nd edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!

If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Early Slate Breakdown

Happy Hump Day my MLB DFS friends – we have our usual split slate madness with a four game Early Slate and an eight game Main Slate and the hope is the rain holds off around the league so we can get in baseball!

The four game early slate has some solid contest selection which makes me intrigued but there is serious rain risk in both Cincinnati and Cleveland that could make this slate totally unplayable if both games get washed out.

The first likely building block on this slate is Lance Lynn ($10.3K) – the one true “ace” arm on this early slate who will face the same Indians team he battled with earlier this season with mixed results – including a single-digit DFS output game of only 9 DK points but also a 10 strikeout outing, 27 DK point outing which is what we would be paying for here today.

The one issue with Lynn is that you are paying a premium for an arm that gets the wrong side of his splits. On the season, Lynn has just a 21.9% K rate against LHB and he will face 6 lefties in the Cleveland lineup today. Seriously – you are paying over $10K for a 20% K arm against 2/3 of the lineup! Think about that.

Lynn is going to be massive chalk – and maybe, just maybe, this is the spot to attack or at the very least fade. Ignore the 1.37 ERA – focus instead on a 4 xFIP and SIERA which tells you he has been wildly lucky.

Lynn also just pitched on Saturday so asking him to pitch on three days rest today – this could be a spot where we get him A) not at his best and/or B) on a shorter pitch count limit.

We talk about this all the time but short slates are FAR more about strategy than picking best plays and if everyone is going to play Lynn as SP1 – can we pivot or even try to get the leverage against him?

Lynn has only pitched on three days rest once in his career so there is far more we do not know than we can actually discern from past data points but I think that uncertainty coupled with him being chalk, is reason to take a stand.

So building a left-handed Indians stack here with guys like Jose Ramirez, Josh Naylor, and Eddie Rosario could provide interesting leverage and low ownership.

The question then becomes – where do people actually go for arms?

My guess is Madison Bumgarner becomes popular against the depleted Mets line-up but again, this is a spot where I could argue to attack more than using the arm. No pitcher on this slate has given up more hard contact since the start of 2020 than MadBum and in fact, no pitcher pitching on either slate today has a higher metric. Yet – there is a path to him being the chalky SP2 despite the fact he’s arguably the one with the lowest floor.

The right-handed batters have been his issue with a .260 ISO and 43% hard contact rate to go with a near 50% FB rate and while Chase Field’s roof is expected to be closed, I think the Mets bats are more in play than using MadBum. So even here – we go leverage and stack the Mets right-handed batters like Pete Alonso, James McCann, Jonathan Villar, Francisco Lindor and Jose Peraza.

OK eventually we have to get to arms right?

Honestly – there are none I love, barely any I like and I am more than willing to work backward and play bats that give me leverage and simply find the arms that fit. While I do not love either Adbert Alzolay against the loaded Padres line-up or David Peterson against the DBacks – they are likely the only other options you can argue for if you play the fade of Lynn/MadBum as the other arms are either not stretched out or in bad weather spots.

To summarize – let ownership drive some strategic decision making here today. If Lynn/Bumgarner is chalk – stacks the Indians and Mets bats against them because the metrics would tell you, neither arm is worth using them if they are popular.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – Main Slate Breakdown

The Wednesday MLB DFS Main Slate is where the fun begins – because, well it is JON LESTER DAY!

That is right, Mr. Regression gets a start in Sun Trust Park against the Braves and boy oh boy, this is where my day begins. Even with the Braves sporting a line-up without Marcell Ozuna, they are hardly lacking for bats that hammer LHP as all of Dansby Swanson, Austin Riley, Ozzie Albies and Ronald Acuna have .250+ ISO marks against LHP this season and all of Acuna, Albies and Swanson do so with 50% or higher hard contact rates.

The 1-5 Braves stack with Freddie Freeman included is a priority for me today and what I love about this slate is I can do so while still getting arguably my two favorite arms.

Walker Buehler ($10.6K) and Alek Manaoah ($8.4K) were my initial first look pairing as they offered me the ability to attack two high K arms and it was no surprise to see Adam Strangis going down the same route in today’s Starting Rotation.

However – I think there is a similar pairing we can use in the same salary range and that would be to go with Sean Manaea ($9.6K) and Shane McLanahan ($7.6K). This four pitcher player pool is where my focus is tonight and after going through Adam’s breakdown it was good to see we were largely on the same page.

In any combination of these four arms, you are attacking high K ability and that is critical in our MLB DFS builds especially when you have multiple arms with a path to ceiling/success.

Now paying up for both arms and stacking the top 5 in Atlanta may seem like a path that is not doable and will require some salary help with creative dumpster diving but I think that path exists tonight and it does so in a spot we want to go after – and that is with Matt Harvey pitching in Camden Yards.

Now Harvey us only expected to open before turning it over to the Baltimore pen and while we are not going to be able to afford the big bats in Minnesota, there is some serious value here due to injury.

With Mitch Garver hurt last night, it could give us a path to a $2K catcher in Ben Rortvedt and with Buxton/Kepler/Cave all hurt in the OF – we have multiple potential punts in the OF we can use with Kyle Garlick, Trevor Larnach and/or Rob Refsnyder.

This would be the ideal spot to attack a bottom of the order mini Twins stack with value bats, in an elite hitting environment against a bad pitcher and guaranteed 9th inning at bats and you can do so while anchoring to a high octane Braves offense and two stud arms – sign me up!

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up

We have all day MLB DFS Picks and Pivots and what could be better?

The early slate is going to be far more strategy based than a normal slate would be but I think we have the chance to attack some spots that will be chalk and frankly, the metrics say they should not be.

The main slate is far more straightforward and going “double aces” with a 5 man Braves stack is a path that you knew Picks and Pivots would be on with Jon Lester toeing the rubber in Atlanta tonight.

Good luck tonight all! Let’s keep that hot streak rolling! Come join the Win Daily Sports Team – grab a Gold Membership and take advantage of all the tools, articles, and expert coaching we can give you to make you a consistent winner in DFS.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Welcome to the Tuesday, June 1st edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!

If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Main Slate Breakdown

Happy Tuesday and welcome to June my MLB DFS friends and family. The Win Daily Sports team closed out May with a BANG as you can see above, with Monday’s early slate of baseball resulted in some big time wins and bankroll building including a Picks and Pivots Rays/Reds stack that carried the day alongside two aces!

Today’s 14 game slate has an interesting dynamic as Adam Strangis outlined in Starting Rotation as we have a very top-heavy and condensed player pool at Starting Pitcher which is going to drive our MLB DFS Picks.

There are three arms up top that I am looking at to drive my player pool – with Tyler Glasnow, Chris Bassitt, and Robbie Ray all having the type of elite K upside to anchor my DraftKings builds.

Tyler Glasnow ($9.8K) is the cream of the crop with a 36% K rate and 17% SS rate this season who has racked up double-digit K’s in 6 of his last 10 outings and gets a Yankee line-up that is ice cold right now.

The question is not so much about Glasnow but it likely comes down to whether I use Bassitt or Ray as my SP2.

If we just look at the metrics, Ray seems like the better play as his 28% K rate and 16% SS rate this season are far stronger than Bassitt’s 26% and 11% marks. The match-up for Ray has more K upside as well as the Marlins projected line-up has a 25% K rate against LHP since 2020 while the Mariners line-up has just a 21% K rate against righties like Bassitt.

Honestly – the decision between these two is a coin flip and with just $600 of salary between them, I think you build with Bassitt to start but feel free to drop down to Ray if you need to few hundred of salary.

Going with a Glasnow and Ray/Bassitt combination will still allow you to build around a high upside power stack as you will have just under $4K per batter and with the hitter pricing as it is – I am not sure there is any reason to drop down at pitcher since you can afford the bats you want while staying in that upper echelon of arms.

The Minnesota Twins will likely be a popular stack with a slate-high 5+ IRT against LHP Bruce Zimmerman in Camden Yards and for good reason. The Orioles LHP has given up a .221 ISO this year and a 43% hard contact rate to RHB and the Twins projected line-up has a massive .286 ISO mark against LHP this season.

The best part of this Twins stack is how you can balance the pricing of your stack – anchoring to big bats like Nelson Cruz or Josh Donaldson up top but using a cheap punt like Rob Refsnyder ($2.2K) to help keep the cost of the stack in check.

Zimmerman relies nearly a third of the time on his change-up to RHB and this is a pitch type that all of Kyle Garlick, Rob Refsnyder, Josh Donaldson and Nelson Cruz hit with .200+ ISO marks and all but Donaldson have 50%+ HC rates against.

One way to make this stack work without breaking the bank is to use a “wrap-around” stack with $2K punts Refsnyder and Andrelton Simmons at the bottom of the order in the #8-9 spots and wrap it around to Garlick/Donaldson/Cruz.

With the Twins being the road team here in Camden Yards, this is the perfect time to use the bottom of the order bats in your stacks because they are guaranteed the 9th inning at-bats which is a key component of using bats in the lower part of the order and it will help differentiate you from those who simply stack 1-5 in the Minnesota offense.

This is Picks and Pivots so you know where I am going for Stack #2 today – yes, right back to the Tampa Bay Rays offense.

It continues to amaze me how arguably one of the best offenses in baseball goes totally ignored every day but the Rays are almost never played in MLB DFS, outside of the Win Daily team of course. Over the last two weeks, no team in baseball has scored more runs (88), they have the second-most HR’s (23), and are second in steals (11).

Yes despite the well-rounded offense and high ceiling – they are a single-digit owned stack on a daily basis and I think today they are an ideal secondary stack as a way to move off the chalk.

I am not always spot on with early ownership but this feels like a day where the three arms I noted are the chalk pitching and they are going to be built with Minnesota and/or Coors Field bats.

So how do we get different? Yep – fire up those single-digit owned Tampa bats in Yankee Stadium’s short port once again.

Domingo German is a solid arm, but one that has struggled this year with the long ball – especially at home in New York, giving up a 3.15 HR/9 rate with a 3.55 HR/9 rate specifically to RHB in NY.

German has given up 7 HR in 4 home starts this season with 5 of those coming from the right side which makes guys like Randy Arozarena and Mike Zunino stand out. Zunino is the one that the metrics really line up for as he has a .279 ISO and 46% HC rate this season against RHP and has a .237 ISO and 55% HC rate against the sinker which is the pitch German relies on nearly 30% of the time to get RHB out.

If you look at German’s starts this year at home – it tells a story of how to attack him. He has given up 7 HR’s but just 10 ER’s so this is a spot with the Rays where I think you use them as a HR or bust mini-stack instead of a full on 5 man stack that will put up big innings.

If we are going home run hunting, you simply cannot leave off Austin Meadows ($5.2K) – yes, I know – I write the dude up every day. With the short porch in RF, Meadows and his .348 ISO mark against RHP this year and his team-high 55% RB rate makes him ideal for Yankee Stadium bombs.

Meadows has a .200+ ISO mark against both of German’s primary pitches in the change-up and curve and while I despise BvP as a stand alone metric, I think it is interesting when the pitch data aligns with the history and Meadows is 4 for 8 with 3 HR’s against the Yankees right-hander.

Just keep fading Meadows – we will keep playing him at Win Daily sports and getting single-digit owned bombs every day.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up

Alright kids we got ourselves another strong MLB DFS Picks and Pivots slate and the formula for this one seems clear as we can pay up for two high end K arms while still building big time power stacks around them!

Even with such a large slate ahead of us, I think the player pool is incredibly condensed as we can anchor to a Glasnow and Bassitt/Ray line-up while being able to stack the right-handed Twins in Camden Yards and using the Rays power to complement them in a low-owned mini-stack!

Good luck tonight all! Let’s keep that hot streak rolling! Come join the Win Daily Sports Team – grab a Gold Membership and take advantage of all the tools, articles, and expert coaching we can give you to make you a consistent winner in DFS.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Welcome to the Monday 31st edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!

If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Early Slate Breakdown

Opening up this Memorial Day MLB DFS slate, we are greeted 9 games starting at 1 PM EST and finally – no weather issues! What stands out to me at first glance is this is going to be one of those “Double Aces” kind of slates as we have all of Carlos Rodon, Corbin Burnes and Jose Berrios in strong SP1 spots.

These kinds of builds were prevalent yesterday with Max, Woodruff, and Giolito as the common pairing atop leader boards and I think we go right back to the formula here on Monday!

Going with double aces means we have to get strategic with our bats/stacks and that could mean going with two mid-range stacks or going high/low and my first inclination is to start high because there is a stack I love here today and if you have followed along with Picks and Pivots it won’t surprise you to see me going back to the Tampa Bay Rays against RHP Jameson Taillon.

Taillon is one of the worst pitchers in baseball this season against left-handed hitting.

This is not a hot take.

This is not an opinion of a Mets fan.

This is statistical fact.

In 2021 against LHB – Taillon has the following ranks:

• A 2.5 HR/9 rate which ranks 4th in baseball behind such studs as Folty and Dean Kremer.
• A 53.1% fly ball which is 7th highest in the league and a .539 slugging percentage which is 8th in baseball.

Taillon is surrendering a .263 ISO mark to LHB this season and today he will face a Tampa team in Yankee Stadium with the short porch in right field and 7 projected left-handed batters in the line-up. Welcome to the trouble zone Jameson.

If you start with the left-handed bats here – this is a team with an ISO mark of .212 from the left side since the start of 2020 with the heart of the order with Meadows, Choi and Lowe standing out as premier plays.

Austin Meadows once again stands out as one of the best plays on the slate as he has extreme fly ball tendencies against RHP, a 55% mark and a team high .271 ISO against righties making him the must have play from this team and in this stack.

What is interesting about this team as a stack is even within the team they have such opposing price points. For every $5K-$6K bat like Arozarena, Lowe or Meadows – you get a value bat like Walls, Kiermeir or Phillips at the bottom of the order. The fact Tampa is on the road means you are guaranteed 9 innings of at-bats which is exactly where you can roll out bottom of the order stacks as a way to 1)be different and 2) save salary.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Late Slate Breakdown

We have a solid three-game late slate with some surprisingly good contests as well on DK, and honestly this slate plays much as the early one does. We have two clear aces up top with Jacob deGrom and Trevor Bauer and that means we need to take stands with our stacks and also find ways to save salary.

DraftKings was smart in aggressively pricing up the Mets fringe bats in Chase Field but they did not do the same with the Kansas City Royals against RHP Chad Kuhl and that is exactly where I think you plant your flag here and get 5 KC bats with the high dollar options like Salvy & Whit but balance them out with $2K Edward Olivares in the OF.

Kuhl’s biggest struggles have come against LHB with a MASSIVE .481 ISO mark against lefties this season which puts Carlos Santana, Andrew Benintendi and Aldaberto Mondesi atop the player pool to attack those splits.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up

The two slates today in our MLB DFS picks play incredibly similarly in that I think we anchor to “double aces” and do so with a 5 man core stack for tournaments with the Rays early and the Royals late.

Enjoy this Memorial Day – it has finally stopped raining in the Northeast so I will enjoy the day off outside and make sure to be back in time to watch deGOAT pitch the nightcap!

Good luck tonight all! Let’s keep that hot streak rolling! Come join the Win Daily Sports Team – grab a Gold Membership and take advantage of all the tools, articles, and expert coaching we can give you to make you a consistent winner in DFS.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Welcome to the Sunday, May 30th edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!

If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Early Slate Breakdown

Happy Sunday my MLB DFS friends and welcome into another split slate day of DFS where we kick off the day with a 10 game “Early” slate at 1:05 PM EST and much like yesterday we have rain concerns with Boston looking the worst and steady rain in Washington and Milwaukee which could impact two of the best arms on the slate in Max Scherzer and Brandon Woodruff.

The way this slate shakes out – having any sort of uncertainty around these two arms would completely change the landscape of how we attack today. Think back to yesterday, many of us were all in on the Blue Jays bats and when we got a late PPD due to (checks notes) …. wind… (yep) – it totally changed how we had to attack the slate.

Today we have another offense that could/should be the key cog for many and much like the Jays yesterday, the pricing on the Chicago White Sox are going to make them the core decision point in your stack.

The Sox are going up against LHP Keegan Akin, who has surrendered a .186 ISO, 46% hard contact rate, and 48% fly-ball rate to RHB since the start of last season. We know the flow chart by now – when you have a hittable lefty on the hill, it makes all of Tim Anderson, Jose Abreu, Yermin Mercedes and Andrew Vaughn turn into the 1920’s Yankees and it becomes HR derby.

I love what DK did today with the White Sox pricing because if you want them – well, be prepared to pay $6K per batter to make it all work because that is where the big boys sit! The inflated pricing on the Sox bats is going to reverberate throughout the rest of your lineup decisions – you may be able to get up to one of Max or Woodruff but it will mean punting big time with your secondary stack if you go that route.

One option for GPP’s would be to double down on offenses and go big with two stacks and pair the Tampa Bay Rays left-handed power with the White Sox bats. The Rays take on Zach Eflin today in Tampa and I think getting a Rays mini stack here could be a massive difference-maker because their pricing is high enough where I simply do not think people will even think about going here.

Eflin since the start of 2020 has had extreme splits, dominating RHB but to lefties he has given up a .236 ISO mark with a 2.4 HR/9 rate last season and a 1.4 HR/9 so far this season.

Eflin relies on two pitchers to lefties – the sinker which he throws 40% of the time and the slider which he throws about 30% of the time. If we look into that pitch type mix, Austin Meadows has a .200 ISO mark against the sinker while Brandon Lowe has a 48% HC rate against that pitch type with Kevin Kiermaier not far behind at 43%.

The slider is where it really gets interesting – JI Man Choi and Lowe both have .200+ ISO marks but Meadows is the play that jumps off the plate here with a .429 ISO and 87% fly ball rate.

That slider has been what has gotten Eflin in trouble as lefties have hit it to the tune of a .375 ISO, 40% HC rate, and 80% fly-ball rate. I absolutely LOVE the idea of a mini-stack with Meadows/Lowe today and I think Austin Meadows is the kind of sub 5% bat that has double-dong upside in this spot.

Now going with two pricey stacks means we are going to have to get creative with our arms and I think Adam Strangis nailed it in his Starting Rotation today (but what else is new).

What if we went double punts and lived in the Yankee/Tigers game with Tarik Skubal and Michael King?

I have to be honest – I went into today thinking the Yankee stack was the nuts against Skubal but after reading Adam’s write up on Skubal’s recent pitch mix changes, it got me intrigued and then I found this deep dive from the guys at PitcherList and boy oh boy am I really intrigued.

The gist of this article really expands on what Adam was talking about in that a recent decision to ditch his splitter has resulted in better swing and miss outputs and with 3 of his last 4 games resulting in 8, 9 and 9 K’s – the path for ceiling is there even against the Yankees line-up.

We talked about how going with the White Sox stack and their pricey bats will be a significant salary constraint especially if you load up on secondary bats – which is why Michael King at $4K is in our sights.

We made this argument a few nights ago with Kolby Allard who delivered 11 DK points at min price with 4 innings and 4 K’s and that is kind of the path you are looking for with King today against the K heavy Tigers. King has a 27% K rate against LHB since the start of last season and the Tigers are projected to throw out 6 of them today and a team with a 25%+ K rate against RHP since 2020.

Do you want to go all bats today? Well – rocking both arms in Detroit could be your path to making that happen!

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up

While we have a split late today, the 4 game “afternoon slate” looks unplayable with really weak contest selection on DK so my focus will be on the “Early” slate only and I think it sets up to me a good one for our MLB DFS picks.

Do you want high dollar arms or big time power stacks? Because the likelihood is you cant get both.

I love the idea today of going with cheap arms in sneaky strong spots and anchoring to not one but two high-dollar power stacks that could win us serious money on this Sunday!

Good luck tonight all! Let’s keep that hot streak rolling! Come join the Win Daily Sports Team – grab a Gold Membership and take advantage of all the tools, articles, and expert coaching we can give you to make you a consistent winner in DFS.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Welcome to the Saturday, May 29th edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!

If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Early Slate Breakdown

Welcome into a split slate MLB DFS Saturday where we are set for another big day of wins here at Win Daily Sports. As you can see above – big-time congrats to our founder, Jason Mezrahi who clearly read Picks and Pivots yesterday and used the Chase Field game stack to ship some GPP’s! You love to see it.

The 10 game early slate has rain concerns in Pittsburgh & Washington and three of the games are 7 inning double-headers with Brewers/Nats, Pittsburgh/Colorado and Orioles/White Sox only scheduled to play 7 innings which adds complexity to our MLB DFS picks.

When you have these 7 inning double-headers, what it immediately does is removes those bats from consideration for GPP’s as you are limiting yourself to 77% of the “typical” innings for your batters and those extra innings and at-bats can become crucial for where to land in tournament play.

What stands out to me on this early slate is that we have elite K arms with Darvish, Peralta and Rogers but all of them are in less than ideal match-ups and which is making me think we can pay down at pitcher today with an eye on stacking the big bats.

So let’s start there because this slate has some serious firepower with the bats and it starts with the Toronto Blue Jays against LHP Sam Hentges. Hentges has struggled with RH power bats this season to the tune of a .266 ISO and 42% HC rate and has to face basically the worst possible match-up with the right-handed Jays power bats coming to town.

This Blue Jays stack has the potential to destroy Hentges here when you dive into his pitch types further. Hentges relies on his curve nearly 30% of the time to RHB and and oh boy, every player 1-6 in the line-up has a .200+ ISO mark against that type.

OK well no biggie he can just go to his slider that he throws 20% of the time – and oh God, it gets worse. All of Semien, Bichette, Teoscar and Gurriel have .300+ ISO marks against that pitch type.

You know that Simpsons GIF where the kids stand around and scream “STOP STOP HE’S ALREADY DEAD?!” Yeah, that is going to be Sammy Batting Practice today against this Jays offense. Load up.

The other offense I have my eyes on today is the KC Royals against JA Happ and part of the reason is how well they correlate with the Blue Jays as you can use Salvador Perez at Catcher and you have the flexibility to use Whit Merrifield now on DK at either 2B in place of Marcus Semien in a stack or keep Semien and move Whit to the OF slot!

Now paying for all those big bats means you can kiss Yu Darvish goodbye and get ready to scroll down in your pitcher pool – but don’t worry, I got something for you!

What if I told you there was a spot today for a pitcher facing a team that ranks top 10 in K rate at nearly 26% against their handedness and ranks among the top 5 in K rate as a team when playing in their ballpark. What if I also told you it was 50 degrees with 15-20 MPH winds blowing in for said pitcher?

Now what if I told you that pitcher was Luis Castillo ($6.9K)?

Now, listen – this pitcher is going to be scary to roster and for some reason he tends to be CRAZY chalk on every slate and if that is the case, I may change my tune but there is merit to this play on match-up alone as he has swing and miss ability, a high GB rate and gets a Cubs team that whiffs a ton against right-handed pitching.

If Castillo ends up gaining traction – we have some pivots in this range that offer value of their own with the 7 inning double header advantage for arms as they will likely see watered down offenses that play for two game sets.

Dallas Keuchel ($6.4K) is rarely an arm I look to because of his lack of K upside but this is a pitcher who has a massive GB rate (nearly 60%) and gives up essentially only soft contact. There is nothing sexy about this play but we have an arm that has gone 100 pitches now in back-to-back games and with this being a 7 inning affair he gets the potential to double dip with a win and a complete game bonus which would add to his DFS ceiling.

The other arm that fits this bill is Mitch Keller ($5.8K) who gets the simple flow chart of pitching against the Rockies outside of Coors Field. All of the last 5 RHP to face the Rockies on the road have gone for 20+ DK points and 7 of the last 8 have gone for 15+ DK points so this is simply a spot where you are attacking the match-up.

Lastly, we have a $4K Ervin Santana making a spot start against the Twins. He is $4K – that is basically the reason to play him. He has pitched extremely well out of the pen for the Royals this year and his ability to limit power to RHB will be a big selling point with the Twins rolling out likely 5 RHB in the line-up.

Listen – none of these arms have the usual “ACE” ceiling I recommend but sometimes I think you have to take what a slate offers you and today I think it is a slate where bats over arms are the early priority!

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – Main Slate

The five-game “Main Slate” has similar weather/rain concerns in Washington (again) and in New York for the Mets and Braves and well, the pitching may be even worse than the early slate.

The difference here on this slate is that I would argue there are no “must-have” big dollar offenses to force me to move down at pitching so going the most direct route with Julio Urias and Ian Anderson may be the best path. If Anderson gets rained out – the only real logical pivot in my eyes is Adam Wainwright as he will likely get a left-handed heavy Arizona line-up which sets up well for his sub .100 ISO and 22% K rate to LHB this season.

The reason we can live up top on this slate is the best slate in my eyes is Texas/Seattle and the pricing up and down allows you significant salary flexibility.

All apologies to my man Stix, but Folty SZN has been canceled, and stacking against arguably the two worst arms on the slate with Justin Dunn and Folty gives us a path to serious power and a late-night hammer.

If you look at Dunn’s metrics this season the flow chart is simple – stack the LHB against him because he has given up a .227 ISO, 48% HC rate and a 42% FB rate – and well if you think those are bad, Folty’s are even worse with a .298 ISO, 49% HC rate and 46% FB rate.

Are you a left-handed batter in Texas or Seattle’s line-up tonight? Well, then you are in my player pool.

Start those game stacks with Nate Lowe and Joey Gallo and run it back with Kyle Seager and Jared Kelenic. Honestly, the hardest decision is which RHB you use for your third OF with Mitch Haniger and Win Daily darling Adolis Garcia both sitting there to complete the stack!

Honestly – the main slate seems incredibly straight forward to me tonight much like it did on Friday – game stack Texas and Seattle and get two top end arms to anchor to. Easy game.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up

Alright kids – we got ourselves a solid MLB DFS split slate and I think the slates play very differently. On the early slate, I think we avoid the big arms and build around the bats but take the opposite approach on the main where we pay up for both arms and game stack a under priced Texas/Seattle game.

Good luck tonight all! Let’s keep that hot streak rolling! Come join the Win Daily Sports Team – grab a Gold Membership and take advantage of all the tools, articles, and expert coaching we can give you to make you a consistent winner in DFS.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Welcome to the Friday, May 28th edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!

If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Main Slate Breakdown (well, kinda)

Welcome in to a 12 game Friday Night of MLB DFS – well, sorta.

Let’s cut to the chase – it is going to rain, alot and everywhere. The end.

While we have a 12 game slate in theory, there is a really good chance that the first 6 games on this slate are all washouts and all of a sudden this Main Slate is a 6 gamer that starts at 8:10 PM EST.

This is the approach I am going to take for the Main Slate at first glance – back load this into a 6 gamer that is weather free and outline a path for us that avoids the risk and gives us hopefully a head start on those who have to pivot later.

We can easily go this route and build lineups that have both high upside K arms and power stacks and it starts with a late pitching duo of Walker Buehler and Shohei Ohtani. Both Buehler and Ohtani have the traits we are looking for with arms on DraftKings – high swinging strike rates and high K outputs and tonight you have the ability to lock in both due to Ohtani’s mid-range pricing.

Going this route with a late-night focus leaves you roughly $4K per batter and with so many weather concerns on the slate early, there is one spot we do not have to worry about – and that is Chase Field where the temperature will be around 100 at game time and the roof is scheduled to be open!

LHP Madison Bumgarner will take the hill for Arizona and his metrics/match-up here are something I think we can exploit. Against RHB this season, MadBum has surrendered a .183 ISO with a near 50% FB rate and 45% HC rate and this Cardinals line-up is LOADED with right-handed power.

Can we please all take a moment to realize Paul Goldschmidt ($3.9K) is priced under $4K against a lefty in Chase Field? Like seriously? The Cardinals are going to load up on right-handed bats here as all of Tommy Edman, Nolan Arenado, Yadier Molina and Goldy have .225+ ISO marks against lefties over the last 2+ seasons.

The Cardinals will call up Johan Oviedo from AAA to start for them tonight – the proud owner of a 6 ERA, 5 xFIP and a .200+ ISO mark to both sides of the plate with a 13% walk rate that sits just under his 19% K rate.

The Arizona run back in a game stack here correlates really well with the Cardinals primary bats as the projected line-up for Arizona has four of their top five hitters with .200+ ISO marks against RHP this season including Josh Rojas, Carson Kelly, Ketel Marte and Eduardo Escobar.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up

The reality is – this slate has a ton of risk – and it is all front-loaded with rain in nearly every early game. If you are like me on this Friday Night of Memorial Day weekend, you are looking forward to having a cold one and relaxing and refreshing weather feeds doesn’t seem like the best way to kick off my 3 day weekend.

Instead – why not play this as a back-loaded slate – locking in two high K arms with Buehler/Ohtani and game stack Chase Field with two hittable arms with the roof open in Chase Field and 100 degree temperatures at game time.

Sit back and enjoy my friends!

Good luck tonight all! Let’s keep that hot streak rolling! Come join the Win Daily Sports Team – grab a Gold Membership and take advantage of all the tools, articles, and expert coaching we can give you to make you a consistent winner in DFS.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!