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Welcome to the Thursday edition of Aces and Bases.  Today we have another nice sized 8 game main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through. 

The day ends in Y so it means we have another dicey pitching slate.  Feel like it’s been a month since we’ve had a slew of solid pitching to work with.  Pitching looks tough tonight but we have some lineups in great spots.   

Let’s dig in to today’s slate!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Sean Manaea ($9.1k) vs. Seattle Mariners – Manaea gets to take on a Mariners lineup today that has really struggled against left handed pitching this year.  On the year they have a near 27% K rate with limited power.  If we look at Manaea we can see that he’s been pretty good of late, outside of a few long balls. 

Over the last month he’s improvement up on a handful of metrics compared to the whole season.  His K rate is up to 27% vs. 24% for the year and his xFIP is 3.26 vs. 3.85.  The Mariners are coming back from Coors and I’m hoping for a post Coors hangover. 

Kent Maeda ($8.1k) vs. Los Angeles Angels – Of all the pitchers throwing tonight no pitcher has a higher K rate over the past 30 days than Maeda.  Outside of one start vs. the high powered White Sox offense Maeda has been really good since his return from the IL. 

He has 4 games of more than 7 K’s.  Coming out of the All Star break the Angels haven’t been putting up much offensively.  In 157 at bats they have just 7 barrels to go with a 26% K rate.  Look for Maeda to keep the ball rolling with another solid outing tonight. 

Walker Buehler ($10.5k) vs. San Francisco Giants –  .  I’m not overly in love with the match-up tonight but our options are very limited.  The projected lineup has just a 20% K rate and a .208 ISO vs. righties.  With keeping all that in mind, Buehler has been on a nice roll. 

He’s reached 49 FD points in three of his last 4 outings.  From a pure talent stand point, he’s probably the top arm tonight.  I’m sticking with either Manaea or Maeda tonight, but Buehler will give you the highest ceiling potential tonight. 

MLB DFS: The Bats

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cal Quantrill – Quantrill will have his hands full tonight with a very solid Rays lineup.  Let’s first look at what Quantrill has been doing of late.  Over the past 30 days he’s giving up just a ton of hard contact at nearly 41%.  He’s given up 9 barrels in 24 innings. 

That’s not a good pace.  Add in the fact that his swinging strike rate is sitting at just 7.3% over that time period we can see here that we have a pitcher that just hasn’t figured out how to get the ball past big leaguers yet. 

If we dive into splits we can see lefties are a big weakness for him.  His fly ball rate jumps from 25% vs. righties to 45% vs. lefties.  That’s’ a pretty significant jump.  Quantrill is going to face a lineup tonight that potentially has 7 guys batting from the left side.  This is what nightmares are made of. 

Brian’s favorite player tonight will be my building block.  Austin Meadows ($2.9k) should have a field day tonight.  Quantrill has been throwing his sinker more than 35% of the time lefties.  Meadows has a .256 ISO with an average distance of 343 feet vs. this pitch over the past few years.  If he’s in the lineup Walls ($2.1k) has also had success against this pitch.  All Rays, especially the lefties, should be in play tonight.

Atlanta Braves vs. Matt Moore – Moore hasn’t yet had a blow up game in a while.  It’s coming folks.  The metrics say it’s coming.  My hope is that it comes tonight vs. Braves.  Here’s why I think Moore regresses tonight. 

In the last month he has a swinging strike rate of just 9.9% but he has a 44% fly ball rate and a 37% hard hit rate.  He’s not missing bats and he’s giving up a ton a of hard hit fly balls.  He also has an 85% LOB%.  Leaving that many people on every game is just not sustainable. 

The majority of the damage against him comes from the right side of the plate.  He has a .290 ISO against righties with 43% fly ball rate and a 47% hard hit rate.  Braves will more than likely throw out 5 right handed hitters tonight. 

The three guys I’m most focused on here are Dansby Swanson ($3.3k)Albies ($3.6k), and Riley ($3k).  All have ISO’s great then .200 this year to lefties and should be able to handle the 91 mph fastball coming from Moore.    .

Minnesota Twins vs. Andrew Heaney – This is going to be a really tough match-up for Heaney tonight.  His biggest weakness is righties and he’s going to face a ton of them tonight.  And the righties he’s going to be facing all hit for power. 

Over the last month Heaney has really struggled with the long ball.  He’s given up 6 homers in just 18 innings of work.  We are in a spot tonight where we can really chase the long ball. 

Looking at his splits we can see that he gives up way more fly balls to righties at 40% and way more hard contact at 50%.  Garver ($2.4k)Cruz ($3.7k), and Donaldson ($3.1k) are going to be keys here as they hit for a lot of power vs. lefties.  Garver and Donaldson profile the best and will be locks for me in this stack.

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

Like most nights recently, picking the right stack tonight will be key.  The three offense I layed out here have the best opportunity to do the most damage.  Rays and Twins fit very well together. 

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

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Welcome to the Thursday, July 22nd edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!

If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather to walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!

Main Slate Breakdown

Welcome into an 8 game MLB DFS Picks and Pivots Main Slate on Thursday where we get an all-clear weather day and well, another disgusting pitching slate. Seriously, Jacob deGrom goes on the IL and you realize how you never want to play a single pitcher in MLB DFS these days!

Even when we have big names as we did last night with McCullers/Ray and listen, we have it again tonight with Buehler/Manaea – the question we have to keep asking is if they are really worth it? Night after night, slate after slate, we are seeing value arms that drive 15-20 DK point outings and when the “ace” arms are underperforming – you simply don’t have the same opportunity cost to miss at your pitching spots.

With that being said – can we look to the bottom of the player pool tonight with Luis Patino ($6.5K) who is getting called up to make the start against the Indians.

Patino is one of the top pitching prospects in baseball and was the centerpiece of the Blake Snell deal that sent him to San Diego and when you dig into Patino’s stuff – you can see why.

https://twitter.com/MLB/status/1343606746024181761

In AAA this year, Patino has 41 K’s in 29 innings of work, a 33.7% K rate, and in his most recent start for the Bulls, he went 6 innings, threw 90 pitches, and struck out 7, so we know he is stretched out.

If Jose Ramirez remains sidelined, this Indians opposing lineup is one I think we can and should attack, and with the K pedigree of Patino at this price point, I could argue he is one of the best pure pitching plays on the slate.

Let’s stay right here because not only do I love Patino but today my friends – is a Rays day!

With Cal Quantrill on the mound and the Rays being on the road, we get 9 innings of Tampa Bay at-bats which you know is a Picks and Pivots favorite. Quantrill’s splits are significant – as he has a .263 ISO, 45% fly-ball rate, and 41% HC rate to left-handed batters.

Pitch type-wise – Quantrill is going to rely heavily on his sinker, which he throws 35% of the time to LHB and is giving up a crazy high .400 ISO mark against. Guess who hammers the sinker? Yep – Austin Meadows – who has a .256 ISO and a team-high 342 average distance batted ball on that pitch type. Bombs away captain!

The other left-handed batters here today for Tampa also have massive hard contact rates against the sinker – with Brandon Lowe (47%), Ji-Man Choi (57%), Kevin Kiermeir (40%) and Taylor Walls (67%).

Want a hot take? Skip Wander Franco in your Rays stack today and use Taylor Walls instead in a wrap-around stack to be different. Franco has a ZERO ISO mark against RHP thus far and his 30% HC rate is the lowest on the team. Walls meanwhile has a sneaky strong batted ball profile, with a .308 ISO and average batted-ball distance of 327 feet against the sinker.

Adam Strangis mentioned the Twins as his favorite stack against Andrew Heaney and it is hard to argue considering the left-hander is giving up a .207 ISO mark and a massive 50% HC rate to right-handed batters.

I LOVE LOVE LOVE the correlation that the Twins right-handed batters offer around a Rays stack and this is the exact path I intend on rocking today!

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up

I love how this 8 game MLB DFS Picks and Pivots slate is coming together and this slate size and the contest offerings on DraftKings make me really excited for what we can build!

The Rays/Twins correlated stack alongside a cheap SP2 in Luis Patino gives me the ability to pay up for an SP1 while still loading up on all the bats I want – and that is the path that seems to be proving success in recent weeks on a consistent basis.

Good luck tonight all! Let’s keep that hot streak rolling! Come join the Win Daily Sports Team – grab a Gold Membership and take advantage of all the tools, articles, and expert coaching we can give you to make you a consistent winner in DFS.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

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Welcome to the Wednesday edition of Aces and Bases.  Today we have a nice sized 8 game main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through. 

Eventually we’ll get a solid pitching slate right?  We’ve got some dicey pitching again tonight that we’ll need to navigate though.  With dicey pitching comes solid stacks though.   

Let’s dig in to today’s slate!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Lance McCullers ($10.2k) vs. Cleveland Indians – This is a little more than I’d like to pay for McCullers but on a slate like tonight we may be forced to.  Over the past 30 days McCullers has seen an small uptick in strike outs.  His K rate during that time is a little more than 31% compared to 29% on the year. 

We know we’re going to get someone that has elite K upside and that’s what we want in GPP’s.  The lineup he’s projected to face tonight has a 27% K rate vs. righties this year.  The Indians have really struggled coming out of the AS break.  They’ve K’d 49 times in just 149 at bats and have just 6 barrels.  Look for McCullers to take full advantage of a struggling lineup.

Adam Wainwright ($8.8k) vs. Chicago Cubs – The goal tonight will be find pitchers that won’t get us negative points.  Kidding.  Kind of.  Wainwright hasn’t had a single start this season where he finished under 20 FD points.  So know we have a floor with him.

Wainwright isn’t a strike out pitcher at this point in his career.  His K rate over the past 30 days is only 21%.  He has shown some K upside though at times with more than a handful of games over 7 K’s.  With the match-up today there’s definitely a real shot at getting to that 7 K number again. 

Like the Indians, the Cubs have really struggled out of the gates since the break.  Of the teams in the main slate tonight, only the Indians have struck out more over the past week.  While I don’t see Wainwright getting us 50 FD points, I do think there’s a real shot at a 30 point floor tonight.  With some of the struggles we’ve seen with starting pitching of late, I will 100% take that.

Robbie Ray ($10.6k) vs. Boston Red Sox  – This is a high risk high reward pick for tonight.  Ray has been one of the better and more consistent pitchers on the year.  He has an elite 32% K rate and a 3.28 xFIP.  He has consistently plowed through solid lineups such that have historically been very good against lefties. 

The match-up tonight against the Red Sox is not an easy one.  They have a power house lineup.  That said, Ray is an ace and has the ability to overpower any lineup.    

MLB DFS: The Bats

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Garrett Richards – Richards post sticky stuff has been bad.  He’s been one of the most affected pitchers in the game.  Let’s look at his numbers over the past 30 days.  6.03 xFIP to go with 5 homers and 6 barrels in just 17 innings of work. 

He’s someone that when on the mound we should look to take full advantage of.  His match-up today is about as bad as bad can be.  He’s facing a Blue Jays team that has just crushed righties all season long.  They have a .796 OPS, .195 ISO, and 115 wRC+.  Guerrero ($4.5k)Springer ($3.8k), and Hernandez ($3.4k) all profile extremely well tonight against Richards’ pitch mix and should be in your stack. 

Detroit Tigers vs. Jordan Lyles – Lyles had a handful of starts recently that looked great from a distance.  He had back to back 40 fd point outings and a 31 pointer.  It was all smoke and mirrors.  In the two 40 point games he had a 90 LOB % and an 86% LOB %.  In both starts he gave up a healthy amount of hard contact. 

Lyles has 9 starts this season in which he’s given up multiple barrels.  He is a low strike out pitcher who gives up way too many fly balls and way too much hard contact.  He is the type of pitcher you want to and have to target in DFS. 

Once a laughing stock of baseball, the Tigers are now just 6 games under .500.  They’re riding a 5 game winning streak and against Lyles today I like them to make it 6.  Lyles is the type of pitcher who is bad against both sides of the plate.  His ISO against the last couple of years is .204 to lefties and .202 to righties. 

With the Tigers you need to go all in or fade.  They don’t hit too many homers so we need to make sure our players correlate well.  The guys I’m focused on today will be Baddoo ($3.1k)Schoop ($3.4k)Grossman ($3.2k), and Candelario ($2.7k).    Haase ($2.8k) is also an interchangeable part of this stack. 

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Asher Wojciechowski – Woj as I like to call him from his day with O’s is just not a good major league pitcher.  He’s making what is most likely just a spot start for the Yankees today.  He hasn’t pitched in the Majors this year but has struggled in a short stint in the minors. 

If we look at the last couple of years we see that he gives up a ton of fly balls and hard contact.  He is mostly a fastball pitcher with his fb sitting in the very low 90’s.  Realmuto ($3.4k), Hoskins ($3.5k), and Miller ($2.4k) are my building blocks here as they have crushed fastballs this year with hard hit rates over 56%.  The Yankees bullpen hasn’t been as bad of late so the hope here is that they keep Woj in long enough to do a ton of damage.  

There are a ton of other stacks that could be talked about as well tonight.  Houston is also in an incredible spot as Morgan is giving up a ton of fly balls and hard contact (the key to finding success with stacks).  My hunch is that they’ll be a popular target and ownership will be high on them.  If I’m going to eat chalk, I’d rather eat it with Blue Jays than Astros. 

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

Tonight will be about picking the right stack.  We have a handful of teams that are facing pitchers that are gas cans and should put up big numbers.    For pitching, I’m going to focus on pitchers that have a safer floor tonight.  It’s a different type of strategy that isn’t normally one that wins a GPP but with how bad pitching has been of late, it may end up working.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

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Welcome to the Wednesday, July 21st edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!

If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather to walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!

Early Slate Breakdown

Welcome into a split slate Wednesday of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we kick things off with a 6 game early slate that locks at 12:10 PM EST with a game in Coors Field, a 7 inning game between the Padres/Braves, and some well, let call it – interesting pricing.

Have you ever been out to eat at a new place, you sit down and open the menu and go wow, these prices are high but hey as long as the food is good right? Then the food comes and it is underwhelming and now you are annoyed you not only had a bad meal but you also paid a premium for it?

Well, get ready to step into that overpriced restaurant today for lunch where you have to pay $10K for Marcus Stroman and Madison Bumgarner. But hey, at least they are good, right?

The pricing is egregious for both arms, but can I say I actually love it? They are making you think about how much you are really willing to pay for perceived safety in your MLB DFS builds and kudos to DK for that. The flip side of this pricing equation is that DraftKings made the hitter pricing incredibly soft, with nearly 30 batters in the projected player pool priced under $3K and so we have 25-30% of our player pool in value territory.

The issue with paying up for Stroman and/or Mad-Bum is that they simply do not offer you the K ceiling to pay off that price tag and when the overall landscape in baseball right now is that offense is running the show, I am not sure we can allocate that much salary to arms that are going to pitch to contact and we hope “don’t hurt us.”

The key then is building on this early slate around offense and taking calculated shots on our arms and I think we have a few options that allow us this route.

Max Kranick ($7K) will make the start today in Chase Field against Arizona and if you are a Picks and Pivots reader, you know we were all over the Pirates top prospect in his first start back in June when he did this –

https://twitter.com/FarmToFame_/status/1409512554536263687

If you remember in that first start we detailed how Kranick re-invented himself during the pandemic with that short arm action delivery you see above and it has, in turn, brought significantly more velocity sitting in the mid to upper 90’s that he can use to play off his plus slider.

The Arizona projected line-up has 6 batters with 20%+ K rates against RHP this season and we have seen 7 of the last 10 RHP against Arizona go for 15+ DK points. When you add on the NARRATIVE alert that Max Kranick is celebrating his 24th birthday today – well, how do you pass on him at just $7K?

Brad Keller’s ($6.9K) season-long metrics are not going to entice you but his last two games have been arguably his best, with 9 and 7 K’s and a 14.5% swinging-strike rate. What fascinates me about him is that he is changed his pitch mix drastically in these last two starts and so for that reason, I think we have to take notice.

Prior to his last two starts, Keller had thrown 63% fastballs and 31% sliders – the last two starts however, Keller has thrown just 47% fastballs and ratcheted up his slider usage to 50%.

https://twitter.com/fantasy_gospel/status/1416102176233910273

The slider is Keller’s swing and miss offering – it has a 35% whiff rate against left-handed batters and against a lefty-heavy Brewers team today that all have 30-35% whiff rates against that pitch type, I think we have another sneaky path for Mr. Keller who has seemingly reinvented himself.

The bats are when you are going to win your money today and with Coors Field on the slate, my guess is most go there – but I am more than happy to anchor to the New York Mets here today against Jeff Hoffman and the atrocious Reds bullpen.

Hoffman traditionally is a reverse splits arm with more of his power struggles coming against RHB which puts the red-hot Pete Alonso firmly back on our radar today alongside a left-handed heavy Mets line-up. Against left-handed batters this year Hoffman has struggled significantly with command, sporting a 18.6% walk rate which is 4 points higher than his K rate – never a good sign.

Any time we have a pitcher who struggles with command, you want to stack even more because you are looking at attack up and down where we get multiple base runners and big hits and crooked numbers.

The other spot here today that I want to use as a secondary stack, despite the fact that it is just a 7 inning game, is the Padres against LHP Kyle Muller.

Very specifically, I want the Fernando Tatis/Manny Machado combination.

The reason I bring them up alongside the Mets is how well they correlate because with Lindor on the IL, you can fill in the SS/3B in a Mets stack with arguably the two best bats on the slate. And while a 7 inning game is never ideal, the fact they are the road team guarantees us the 7 innings of at-bats and I think they have the individual ceiling that no other bats have on this slate.

Main Slate Breakdown

The MLB DFS Picks and Pivots main slate, mercifully is far more intriguing on the pitching end of things with two aces up top that have high K ceiling in Lance McCullers and Robbie Ray. The more I look at the options, I tend to agree with Adam Strangis in Starting Rotation, this is where we anchor to.

Now as he mentioned, it likely means having to avoid the Blue Jays – or does it?

Listen, the Jays are the best stack on the Main Slate against Garret Richards and while they are pricey, I think there is a path to stacking them up alongside double aces here tonight!

The key is the Texas Rangers against RHP Matt Manning as the Texas bats are basically free on DraftKings. 5 of the 9 projected batters in the Texas line-up are under $2.6K and while Manning has a pedigree, he has also struggled thus far with a near 50% hard contact rate allowed.

The Rangers bats correlate so well with the Blue Jays too as you can slot in a punt catcher like Jonah Heim at $2.2K in the heart of the order, allowing you to fill a spot you don’t want to “waste” with a Toronto catcher.

The simple fact, you can get the two best arms on the slate and the best stack in Toronto all as a result of the dirt-cheap Rangers bats makes the main slate a really clear build at first glance.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up

This MLB DFS Picks and Pivots day is a tale of two slates – one that requires some serious beer goggles and one that well, requires you to follow a really clear path.

The early slate is the one where you are going to struggle to feel comfortable but listen, everyone else will too – we all have the same horrendous options. Don’t be afraid to take chances and as we see ownership, allow yourself to think strategically.

The Main Slate – my advice, don’t overthink it. Just don’t.

Good luck tonight all! Let’s keep that hot streak rolling! Come join the Win Daily Sports Team – grab a Gold Membership and take advantage of all the tools, articles, and expert coaching we can give you to make you a consistent winner in DFS.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

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Welcome to the Tuesday edition of Aces and Bases.  Today we have a big 13 game main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through. 

Pitching looks to be much better than last night.  While we still don’t have the high powered arms that command high salaries, we still have a few solid pitchers that can get the job done while striking out some batters. 

Let’s dig in to today’s slate!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Aaron Nola ($9.1k) vs. New York Yankees – Really like this spot for Nola tonight.  There’s a little bit of a concern with there being some rust as he hasn’t pitched in a couple of weeks. He should be healthy though as he was only on the COVID IL due to contract tracing. 

The Yankees will still be without their key bat in Judge.  The lineup that he’s projected to face tonight has a 28% K rate on the year against righties.  With Nola’s season long K rate standing at 30% we know there’s going to be potential for a healthy amount of K’s tonight. 

Nola has touched double digit strike outs in 2 of his last 3 outings.  I like his chances of doing it again tonight and pulling out the W.   

German Marquez ($8.6k) vs. Seattle Mariners – We are getting an ace level pitcher at a reduced price due to Coors.  In Marquez we’re also getting a pitcher that has done exceptionally well at Coors.  Marquez has been nothing short of brilliant this year.  His xFIP is sitting at 3.76 to go with a 26% K rate. 

Over the past month Marquez has been able to improve on his K rate which is sitting at 31% during that stretch.  He’s facing off against a team today that has K’d at a 26% clip against righties this year.  While Kelenic is back up in the majors he’s not at the point yet where’s going to make this a formidable offense.  Look for Marquez to continue his solid stretch of pitching tonight.

Tarik Skubal ($8.2k) vs. Texas Rangers – The free swinging Rangers are back!  Since returning from the All Star break they have a near 28% K rate.  Mize plus the Tigers bullpen were able to strike out 10 Rangers last night.  Skubal is never a safe play as he still gives up more fly balls and hard hits than desired, but he’s also shown at times elite K upside. 

In Skubal we’re getting someone in the low 8K range that has multiple games this year with 8 or more strike outs. With Rangers striking out more of late I really want to look to take advantage of it.  This is a good spot tonight for Skubal.

MLB DFS: The Bats

Colorado Rockies vs. Marco Gonzales – I often try to not write up teams playing in Coors because they tend to be chalk and well, it’s Coors.  It’s an obvious hitting environment.  With Gonzales on the hill though I really want to make sure I highlight the spot that the Rockies are in tonight. 

Gonzales has been very bad this year.  He’s given up a 46% hard hit rate with a 43% fly ball rate.  If we add in the fact that he has a K rate of only 19% we know he’s just giving up way too many hard hits and way too many fly balls.  Every single one of his pitches has a negative fangraphs’ rating.  That’s bad. 

He’s been especially bad to righties this year, giving up a .377 ISO with a  49% hard hit rate.  The obvious play here is Story ($3.8k) but both Hampson ($2.9k) and Rodgers ($2.9k) have been crushing lefties this year with ISO’s greater than .244 and wOBA’s over .400.  CJ Cron ($3.7k) is also someone that should feast on the sinkers coming from Gonzales.

Chicago White Sox vs. Baily Ober – Ober has already faced the White Sox three times this season.  Two of the outings were bad and his last outing was really good.  My bet is that he returns to form and has a third bat outing against the White Sox. 

Ober just hasn’t quite shown yet he can consistently get Major League hitters out.  Over his last 16 innings of work he’s given up 6 homers.  No pitcher on today’s slate is giving up homers at a quicker pace than Ober over the last month.  He has been better against righties this year so I’ll want to make sure I grab the lefties in this lineup.  I’ll be starting with Goodwin ($2.9k) who has a .333 ISO against righties this year and Sheets ($2.5k) who has a .444 ISO. 

While his K rate jumps to 33% against righties, he’s also giving up a 46% fly ball rate and 44% hard hit rate so we don’t really need to shy away from that side of the plate in this match-up.  I’ll be making sure to get Abreu ($3.6k) and Anderson ($3.6k) into this stack.  Since the All Star break Anderson is one of the hottest hitters in the game with 3 barrels and a 1.529 OPS. 

Cincinnati Reds vs. Robert Stock  – I’m going right back to the well with Reds tonight.  Mets are going with Stock as their spot starter tonight and it very well could turn into a bullpen game for the Mets as Stock has only made it through 4 innings in both starts this year.  

The Mets bullpen over the past 30 days has been dreadful with a 5.53 xFIP and they are as taxed as you can be.  I’m going to focus on the same guys as last night.  Winker ($3.2k), Votto ($2.8k), and Naquin ($2.2k) should do well again.  I love this lineup even more if Castellanos ($3.6k) is back.    

From a pure game stack the Tor/Bos will have fireworks again tonight.  Right now the weather in the game looks awful as starting in the afternoon there’s essentially a 70% chance of storms throughout the night.  If the weather clears up both teams would become a priority as Richards is trash and the Blue Jays are going with essentially a bullpen game. 

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

Tonight’s looking like another fun night w/ some potentially for high run totals.  Thankfully we have some betting pitching to use. 

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

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Welcome to the Tuesday, July 20th edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!

If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather to walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!

Main Slate Breakdown

Welcome into a 13 game MLB DFS Picks and Pivots slate where we once against have major rain concerns in Atlanta for the Braves/Padres and some additional rain risk in the Red Sox and Blue Jays game.

After last night’s wild MLB DFS slate, I do wonder how much recency bias plays into tonight and if folks opt to go back to many of the same spots hoping for a repeat of big-time hitting performances. I also found it interesting that yesterday, with the top-priced arms in tough spots most of the ownership settled in the next level down and I wonder if we see similar trends here this evening.

To me, I still think anchoring to elite K arms is the best route, despite the inconsistent returns and with elite K arms like Yu Darvish and Aaron Nola both under $10K, I love the price discount we are getting on them as SP1’s (understanding that Darvish may never pitch due to rain).

There is one low-end option I have my eye on though and that is Dodgers right-hander Josiah Gray ($4.7K), the Dodgers #2 prospect and a top 40 overall MLB prospect.

https://twitter.com/BlakeHarrisTBLA/status/1415855423077306371

Gray has sported 30% K marks at all minor league levels and has a 38% K rate at AAA in his first 15 innings and while he may need more seasoning he will get his first taste of big-league action tonight serving as the long man after the Dodgers use an opener.

https://twitter.com/FabianArdaya/status/1417370596871073793

Now there is always risk in these non-traditional settings and even more so with a rookie arm, but this is a top K, high-pedigree prospect with a high 90’s rising heater and a nasty breaker he uses to play off it. For under $5K on DraftKings, he could pay massive dividends if you want to go dumpster diving here tonight.

If this high/low route is too risky – once again the $8K range is STRONG and I could see going far more balanced with this range as Adam outlined in Starting Rotation.

Tarik Skubal ($7.7K) gets the ideal spot with a lefty against the Rangers, a match-up we just targeted with Hyun Jin Ryu. In the last three starts, lefties have made against Texas, both Ryu and Robbie Ray dropped ceiling 30+ DK point match-ups and Skubal has the elevated K rate, seeing his strikeout rate rise to 34% in May and 31% in June that gives us elite K upside in a match-up that has paid off all season long.

The other arm I have my eye on in the mid-range is Shane McClanahan ($8.7K). It is funny how these prospects come up, we get hyped and then move on and for a first-rounder like the Rays lefty, all he has done is deliver – with a 28% K rate thus far.

Past the top 3 in the Baltimore lineup, the rest of this Orioles lineup has all hitters with 23% or higher K rates against lefties and we have seen since the beginning of June, 4 LHP have put up 20+ DK outings with Ryu (2x), Anthony Kay and Ryan Yarbrough. After Yarbrough failed as a popular option yesterday, we could even get an ownership discount here on a high K arm with elite pedigree.

Now to the bats!

If you look at the big IRT’s for the offenses today and you assume the Padres are rained out, all of a sudden it’s the Rockies in Coors Field and the same crew from yesterday that went nuts with the Red Sox, Mets, and Reds. Pure speculation but I think we see inflated ownership in those spots due to recency bias.

Moving off them could be a great way to make waves in GPP’s and the Philadelphia Phillies are the team that really stood out to me at first glance against Domingo German and the Yankees. German has given up serious hard contact this season with a .200 ISO and 43% hard contact rate and with the Phillies gaining the DH and playing in a hot Yankee Stadium, we could see the ball fly here.

The Phillies by and large are a cheap stack too – sure you have Hoskins and Harper as pricey plays but you also get cheap lefties to balance the stack with Didi Gregorious (back in Yankee Stadium) and Brad Miller ($2.6K) with 2B/OF dual position eligibility.

The other mini-stack I really like here is the Minnesota Twins against Dallas Keuchel. Now Keuchel is not an arm you typically stack against due to his high ground ball rate but this is also a pitcher with just a 12% K rate and 45% hard contact rate to right-handed batters and well – that is one thing the Twins offer at an elite level with Nelson Cruz, Josh Donaldson and Mitch Garver who is back and only $3.6K on DK.

If you look at Keuchel’s pitch type – he relies heavily on a change-up to RHB and all three hitters noted above have elite profiles against it, with Cruz sporting a team-high .408 ISO and 55% HC rate. The sinker becomes the next option and Garver has a monster .741 ISO, 68% HC rate and a 390+ foot average distance traveled.

To me, this is the ideal spot to go mini-stack HR hunting versus the all-in stack and when we look for correlation – they sit nicely alongside an all-in Phillies barrage today!

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up

Tonight’s slate has weather risks and I think we will see a ton of recency bias impact of MLB DFS picks across the industry which gives us the opportunity to pivot and make GPP waves.

The Phillies/Twins stack offers you power and balanced salary builds that will open up really any pitching path you want – either high/low or balanced. Keep an eye on ownership today and stay in Discord so we can update our thoughts as the day goes on!

Good luck tonight all! Let’s keep that hot streak rolling! Come join the Win Daily Sports Team – grab a Gold Membership and take advantage of all the tools, articles, and expert coaching we can give you to make you a consistent winner in DFS.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

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Welcome to the Monday edition of Aces and Bases.  Today we have a nice sized 11 game main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through. 

At first glance with today’s slate I find myself shying away from the top pitchers.  Yu Darvish is the highest priced arm on the slate and I just don’t know if I can trust him against a Braves lineup that is still pretty good despite missing Acuna. 

Kevin Gausman gets a tough match-up against a finally healthy Dodgers lineup and I just don’t feel overly comfortable spending that much money on an arm against them.  Thankfully for us today we have some arms in the mid-tier that I think will do well for us tonight.

Let’s dig in to today’s slate!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Kyle Gibson ($9.1k) vs. Detroit Tigers – The Tigers helped us cash with their offense against Happ yesterday.  They should help us cash again today, just on the opposite end of the spectrum. 

Gibson is one of my top arms today.  Over the past 30 days he’s been really good.  His xFIP is sitting at 3.42 and his K rate is a little north of 27%.  The lineup that he’s expected to face today has a near 30% K rate against righties this season. 

That is absolutely something we can attack and I plan on it with Gibson.  He faced this lineup a couple of weeks ago and was able to mow down 7 Tigers.  Look for him to replicate that part of the game tonight, just minus some of the damage he gave up.  

Zack Greinke ($8.6k) vs. Cleveland Indians – Since returning from the All Star break no team is striking out more than the Indians with a 32% K rate.  With a team striking out at such a high clip recently, I really want to try to take advantage of that. 

With Greinke we’re getting a pitcher that has seen an improvement in almost all of his metrics over the past 30 days.  His xFIP is at 3.93 vs. 4.46 for the year and his K rate is 20% vs. 18% for the year.  While his K rate is nothing to sneeze at, he has shown at times that he still has the ability to rack up some strike outs when the opportunity presents itself. 

Against this very same Indians team a couple of weeks ago he was able to notch 8 k’s.  With his price being in the mid 8k range we really don’t need a double digit strike out game from him.  We need 5-6 K’s and a QS.  Against an Indians team that is struggling since returning I have confidence he can get that for us tonight.

Shohei Ohtani ($10.2k) vs. Oakland Athletics – Ohtani is about $1,500 more than I’d like but our options are pretty limited tonight.  I will more than likely go with either Gibson or Greinke tonight, but if you want to chase strikeouts with someone that has elite K upside when he’s on you could do a lot worse than Ohtani. 

The A’s have been striking out a lot more than normal of late with a 29% K rate coming out of the break.  Ohtani has an elite 31% K rate on the year and although we haven’t seen that side of him as much over the past 30 days, we know it’s in there and we have a team that’s striking out a bunch of late.  With Ohtani I’d tread lightly tonight, especially at this price point.   

MLB DFS: The Bats

Miami Marlins vs. Jon Lester – I’m not going to go too in depth here because I don’t want to steal Brian’s thunder.  Lester is bad and we should take advantage of it any chance we can get.  Lester’s xFIP on the year is approaching 6.  

In his last 19 innings of work he’s given up 5 homers to go with a near 33% hard hit rate.  He’s not missing bats and he’s not giving up any soft contact.  On the year righties are tagging him with a 35% fly ball rate, 36% hard hit rate, and a .242 ISO.  The middle of this lineup is a bunch of right handed hitters that hit for a lot of power against lefties. 

Cooper ($2.5k) and Duvall ($3.1k) both have ISO’s over .200 against lefties this year.  Aguilar ($3k) isn’t too far behind at .192.  Rojas ($2.7k) at the top of the lineup should set the pace tonight as he has a modest 5 game hitting streak. 

Cincinnati Reds vs. Jerad Eickhoff – I’m attacking Eickhoff for a couple of reasons tonight.  The first reason is that he spells his name wrong.  The second reason is that he’s just not a major league caliber pitcher.  He’s been horrendous in his brief stint with the Mets this year.  In his last 2 starts he’s given up 6 homers in just 8 innings of work.  You don’t need to be a mathematician to know that’s a pretty bad ratio. 

Since his body of work this year is small I want to look at the last few years.  Lefties over the last few years have a .540 ISO against him.  This is primarily due to the 56.6% fly ball rate and 54% hard hit rate he’s given up to them.  Guys like Votto ($2.9k)Winker ($3.3k), and Naquin ($2.2k) should absolutely feast tonight.   With the Mets bullpen scuffling of late the Reds could very well put up double digits tonight. 

New York Mets vs. Vladimir Gutierrez – This game should see a lot of fireworks tonight.  We have 2 bad starting pitchers and 2 offenses that have a lot of power potential.  While the pace at which Gutierrez is giving up homers isn’t as high as Eickhoff, he’s still give them up at a pretty good pace with 6 in his last 27 innings pitched. 

He’s giving up a ton of hard contact of late with a 38% hard hit rate and a 42% fly ball rate over the past month.  He tends to give up more fly balls to lefties so I want to make sure I get a piece of Conforto ($2.8k) and McNeil ($2.6k).  Both guys have ISO’s over .210 vs. curveballs which will be one of the top pitches that Gutierrez will throw to lefties. 

Gutierrez’s fastball has been getting crushed this season.  Alonso ($3.8k) is one of the best in the game at hitting for power against low 90’s fastballs, to the tune of a .564 ISO over the past few years. 

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

We have our first Monday slate after the All Start break and it looks to be a great one.  We have some nice mid-tiered arms we can use and some bats that are in a great spot to put up big numbers. 

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

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Welcome to the Monday, July 19th edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!

If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather to walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!

Main Slate Breakdown

Welcome into an 11 game Monday MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we kick-off the week with a solid slate that has some fascinating GPP appeal due to the fact that we really lack the “obvious plays.” Any time we get a slate where the top arms are not in ideal match-ups or we don’t have a gaudy 6+ Coors Field type total, it makes things far more interesting and likely far less chalky.

We have three elite strikeout arms on today’s slate with Kevin Gausman, Yu Darvish and Shohei Ohtani and I start here because we saw it yesterday, K’s are still king in MLB DFS as ceiling games from Carlos Rodon and Corbin Burnes were anchors to winning GPP line-ups. The one concern today is the weather in Atlanta with serious storms that could threaten this game and really change the landscape.

https://twitter.com/DFSMLBWeather/status/1417090231778562056

Now, I know – the last month and a half since the sticky stuff breakdown, many have been hesitant to pay up for pitching as admittedly, the returns are far less consistent, but I still argue that this is the best path for single entry type builds.

When you layer on the fact that the mid to low range of pitching on this slate is flat-out ugly, I tend to side with Adam Strangis in Starting Rotation where we anchor to the top K arms, even in match-ups we may not love.

One of the reasons, I think we take this path is that the stacks I love today are simply – not that expensive and I have the opportunity to go double ace with my favorite bats, so why get cute?

Let’s not overlook the obvious – it is Jon Lester day and my friends, this spot is absolutely gorgeous. Lester is giving up a .242 ISO to right-handed batters and this Marlins lineup is loaded with right-handed and affordable power with the projected line-up sporting a .210 ISO and 40% HC rate against LHP since the start of last season.

The one “issue” writing this early is that the projected line-up we see this morning may not look anything like what gets rolled out later on due to both Jazz Chisholm and Garrett Coopper leaving Sunday’s game with injuries that require X-rays and MRI’s.

What you can anchor to is the trio of big right-handed bats in Jesus Aguilar, Starling Marte and Adam Duvall and when you dig into pitch type you see some premium bats pop. We know Lester’s cutter has been the pitch to attack this year with an absurd .502 ISO mark and 43% hard contact rate against it. Both Marte and Aguilar stand out with .375 and .235 ISO marks respectively, and Duvall leads the team with a .247 ISO mark versus southpaws this season.

Where it could get interesting, and allow us a path to pay for the double aces with ease, is if Jazz/Cooper end up sitting and we get some added value in the Marlins lineup and it sure sounds like Chisholm is headed for an IL stint we need to watch this Miami starting lineup for value today!

https://twitter.com/CraigMish/status/1416846067396657152

The other spot that stands out to me today for value, well, may not normally be a spot I look for value but take a peek at San Diego for a second. The match-up versus LHP Kyle Muller is not one I set out to target but I also cannot overlook when we get a team with multiple punt projected starts as the Padres have with Webster Rivas and Ha-Seong Kim.

Now, these guys are not the reasons you start with the Padres – but their inclusion is what all of a sudden allows you to get Fernando Tatis and Manny Machado into a Marlins/Padres stacking combination.

I preach roster correlation all the time – and guess what the Marlins do not have – strong 3B and SS options – paving the way to load in arguably the two best bats on the slate into our line-ups today in an ultra Stars/Scrubs type build.

Now, Muller is an arm I have argued we should use early in the season due to his minor league K pedigree but flip the script here a second and this is the same arm that has had strong fly ball tendencies and HR issues at AAA, and has given up a 60% fly-ball rate to right-handed batters in his short big league time.

This is not an indictment of Muller’s talent, it is an opportunity to potentially get Tatis/Machado who have .330+ ISO marks against both of Muller’s primary pitch types in the slider and curveball.

In both of these cases, we get to anchor to one of my favorite strategies – stacking road teams with guaranteed 9 innings of at-bats. I know it may seem like a throw-away comment but when I know I can anchor to stacks that will get 11% more at bat’s, it becomes a slight edge for those who stack home teams and when every at-bat is a chance to make a difference in tournaments, I want any edge I can get.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up

Walking into this MLB DFS Picks and Pivots slate, I think the path for a “double-ace” approach with elite road stacks is really clear and becomes even more doable pending the Marlins line-up post-injury news.

Personally, I think you need to anchor to the top arms due to a combination of K upside and the opportunity cost of fading them. If guys like Gausman, Darvish and Ohtani have ceiling-type 30+ DK point games, the reality is they could lap the pitching field by double because there are far more floor arms today than those who have GPP ceiling. So anchoring to those builds and being able to do so with some punt value that still allows us the big bats, is a path I am all about today!

Good luck tonight all! Let’s keep that hot streak rolling! Come join the Win Daily Sports Team – grab a Gold Membership and take advantage of all the tools, articles, and expert coaching we can give you to make you a consistent winner in DFS.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

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Welcome to the Sunday, July 18th edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!

If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather to walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!

Main Slate Breakdown

Welcome into a Sunday MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we have a much more clear weather slate ahead of us however we do have some unique aspects of this 10 game slate as the Jays/Rangers game is a 7 inning double-header and the games in Washington and Philadelphia will start delayed as they need to resume the games from last night first.

The one thing we know for sure – pitching is STRONG on this slate, like really strong. You could make the argument for half the arms on this slate as viable pitching targets and as such, the takeaway for me is that we cannot take unnecessary risks with arms today and need to ensure we hit on our two pitchers on DraftKings.

Now that does not necessarily mean we have to pay all the way up for the likes of Burnes, Max or Wheeler – all strong plays, but I think the next tier down provides more point per dollar upside.

Sonny Gray ($8.2K) is coming off the All-Star Break IL with a rib strain, and assuming we hear of no pitch count issues, we simply need to go right back to him at this price point. In his previous two starts before the break, Gray struck out 7 and 8 batters and his 30% K rate on the season gives you elite strikeout upside at a mid-range price point.

The match-up against Milwaukee sets up perfectly as well, with 5 of the 8 projected batters hitting from the left side where Gray has a 34.4% K rate this season and this is a line-up overall with a 25% K rate against RHP since the start of last season.

The other mid-range arm in an elite match-up with Hyun Jin Ryu ($7.6K) against the K-happy Texas Rangers in a 7 inning double-header contest. Five of the eight batters in this projected Texas line-up have a K rate of 28% or higher against LHP since the start of last season including 3 left-handed batters with Gallo, Dahl, and Lowe who have a combined 30%+ K rate against southpaws.

When pivoting to the bats, yeah – it has been a while but boy oh boy – today is the day we go back to our Tampa Bay Rays stacks against LHP Drew Smyly.

If you look at the metrics for Smyly this season, his sub 5 ERA actually tells you he has been lucky as compared to his 5.26 xFIP and his .200+ ISO and 46% hard contact rates allowed along with a 2 HR/9 rate, tells you this is a blow-up spot that could happen at any moment and we know the Rays are the kind of offense that can win you a GPP when the bats are clicking.

What I love about this Rays stack is how balanced it is from the right/left side and I think having lefties like Austin Meadows and Brandon Lowe in the middle of the order, will keep folks away in the L/L spot. However, here is the thing – Smyly, has given up a .303 ISO mark to LHB this season with a 51.8% hard contact rate and when you dig deeper into his pitch type you start to fall in love even more with the spot.

Smyly relies over 30% of the time on his curveball to lefties, the only real secondary offering he uses and it is one that left-handed batters have hit with power to the tune of a .240 ISO and average distance traveled of 347 feet. Meadows and Lowe specifically have elite batted ball profiles against this pitch type with Meadows sporting a .290 ISO while Lowe has a .200 ISO and team-high 50% hard contact rate.

The Rays are the road team, so we know we get a guaranteed 9 innings of at-bats and with Smyly’s penchant for hard contact and it being hot and humid in Atlanta today – the ball could fly as our Rays stack takes us to the top of the GPP leaderboard.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up

Looking at this MLB DFS Picks and Pivots slate, the pitching is where you need to start and frankly, it is where you have to get it right but I also think with so many good options, the ownership will largely be spread out and allow us to pick from a large player pool.

The flip side is with so many good arms is that there are far less stacks to build off of, so if all of a sudden we see chalky bats forming – that to me is where we pivot off and my hope is that the Rays go over-looked against an arm that is giving up tons of power in a hitter’s ballpark.

Good luck tonight all! Let’s keep that hot streak rolling! Come join the Win Daily Sports Team – grab a Gold Membership and take advantage of all the tools, articles, and expert coaching we can give you to make you a consistent winner in DFS.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

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Welcome to the Sunday Funday edition of Aces and Bases.  Today we have a smaller than usual 9 game main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through. 

For the first time since baseball resumed from the All Star break there shouldn’t be any concerns with weather outside of a few showers in Atlanta. 

We have a trio of aces of going today and I probably won’t want to stray too far from them.

Let’s dig in to today’s slates!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Zack Wheeler ($11k) vs. Miami Marlins – Wheeler hasn’t pitched much over the past 11 days as he only faced 1 batter in the All Star Game.  This should mean he has a fresh and rested arm going into today’s matchup vs. the Marlins.  He’s facing a Marlins team that just isn’t very good. 

Over the past 30 days they have the second highest K rate in the majors at nearly 27%.  If Vinny Velasquez and the Phillies bullpen were able to quiet this lineup last night, I don’t see any reason why Wheeler won’t be able to do the same. 

He faced this team a couple of months ago and had one of his best outings of the year with 10 K’s thru 7 innings pitched.  Look for Wheeler to have a dominant game tonight.

Corbin Burnes ($11.2k) vs. Cincinnati Reds – After a little bit of a rough stretch in mid-June Burnes has recently re-found his touch with 3 very solid outings in a row. 

While his K rate over the past 30 days is down a bit form his season long number (26% vs. 38%) he’s facing a Reds team that has been striking out quite a bit over the past 30 days.  Their K rate in the last month is nearly 26% with limited power numbers.  I like Burnes to be one of the top scoring pitchers at the end of the day.

Carlos Rodon ($10.6k) vs. Houston Astros – This won’t be an easy task for Rodon today.  The Astros have been one of the best teams in the league this year against lefties.  That said, Rodon has proven time and time again this year that he’s up to the task when facing tough lineups. 

He hasn’t had a game in the last 2 months where he hasn’t struck out at least 8 batters, with one of those games coming against this same Astros team.  I normally don’t make it a habit of using a pitcher against the Astros but with Rodon I’m going to make the exception today.  

With high priced lineups like the Blue Jays and Dodgers being off the slate and the Padres facing Scherzer today I don’t really see the need to stray from the top echelon of pitchers this afternoon. There will be enough value in the lineups we choose to allow us to comfortably fit the aces.

MLB DFS: The Bats

San Francisco Giants vs. Wade LeBlanc – If we look at last night’s box score we’ll see a team that struggled to put up any offense against a lefty.  However, if we look a bit deeper we’ll see that the Giants just couldn’t find any holes last night.  They had an insanely low BABIP of just .158 with just 1 strike out against Kim. 

Thankfully for us they get a lefty again today and one who’s not nearly as good as Kim.  Over the past 30 days LeBlanc is giving up a ton of hard contact at more than 38% with limited swing and miss stuff.  Leblanc is going to throw a ton of cutters and sinkers to batters today. 

The guys I want a piece of today are going Austin Slater ($2.3k)Yastrzemski ($3.3k)Ruff ($2.9k), and Flores ($2.5k).  All have shown strong power numbers vs. this pitch selection from lefties. 

Detroit Tigers vs. J.A.Happ – This didn’t work out too well a week and a half ago when Happ threw his best out of the year against this same Tigers team.  I still the love the match-up here and I still think that Happ is a gas can.  I’m going to go right back and try to attack him. 

On the year he’s giving up a 40% hard hit rate with a 44% fly ball rate.  That many fly balls and that many hard hits are just asking for trouble.  The Tigers will throw out a lineup that will most likely be all right handed today.  Against righties Happ is giving up a 44% fly ball rate and 43% hard hit rate which adds up to a .272 ISO against. 

Even a blind squirrel finds a nut occasionally and that’s what happened last outing.  Give me all the Grossman ($3.2k)Schoop ($3.2k), and Haase ($2.9k) today.  All three have crushed left handed pitching this year.  Haase did leave the game early yesterday so we’ll need to monitor his status, but he tried staying in the game so I think he’s back in there today.

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Drew Smyly – Smyly’s ERA over the past 30 days is just 1.61.  Why are we attacking a pitcher with such a small ERA?  I’ll tell you why.  He’s been getting extremely lucky and the Rays are just the team to end his string of luck. 

There’s a lot of regression in that ERA.  He’s stranded nearly 90% of the batters he’s left on over the last month.  He has just a 10% swinging strike rate, a 35% hard hit rate, and a 43% fly ball rate.  At some point his luck is going to run out.  Brian’s Rays are going to the be the team that ends it. 

The guy I love the most today is Austin Meadows ($3.2k) with some lefty on lefty crime.  On the year Smyly is actually giving up a much higher ISO to lefties than righties, .303 vs. .194.  Other guys I really like here are Lowe ($3.2k) and Zunino ($2.5k).  All line up really well vs. Smyly’s mix of fastballs and curveballs as their ISO’s are north of .200 against these pitches.

I also do love attacking Harvey with the Royals today.  Harvey is at the tail end of this experiment with Orioles. Royals should be able to take advantage of both Harvey and the O’s bullpen today.

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

This Sunday funday should be a fun one with some top level arms going against teams that have been striking out at a healthy pace and some gas cans we can attack.     

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

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