daily fantasy baseball picks

Welcome to the Tuesday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!

If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather to walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!

Main Slate Breakdown

Welcome to an MLB DFS Picks and Pivots Tuesday where we are back on the grind after a big NFL Sunday! First and foremost, a huge congrats to Jon and Big T – two of the Win Daily Sports family that hit BIG on Sunday – what a way to kick off the NFL season!

When stepping back and looking at this 12 game MLB DFS slate on Tuesday, what stands out is the plethora of top-end pitching with elite strikeout ability and the presence of a New York Yankee lineup with a 6+ IRT against the Baltimore Orioles in Camden Yards that will likely draw the lion’s share of offensive ownership.

So let’s just explore that for a second because we need to take slate context, the player pool at large, and the pricing into account before you simply list off “best plays.”

Finding the Chalk

The single most glaring aspect of this slate is how cheap the Yankees bats are against LHP Alex Wells, who has given up a .246 ISO mark and 49.2% hard contact rate to right-handed batters this season. Sure the big bats like Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton are $5K and up but the rest of the Yankee lineup is affordable – with Luke Voit ($3.8K), Gleyber Torres ($3.7K) and Gio Urshela ($3.5K) all offering solid mid-range value.

I bring this up because the bats for New York will be popular and are also not all that cost-prohibitive which will allow MLB DFS players to not only grab the stack but use Gerrit Cole ($10.7K) as the clear cut SP1. From a metrics perspective, Cole is everything we want to anchor to – the clear top-dog in elite recent form with a 36% K rate the last month which ranks 4th in all of baseball. Like we argued yesterday with Sandy Alcantara, when you get an elite K arm in top recent form, those become the guys you anchor to on DK as SP1’s every single time out.

The fact you can get Cole and a Yankees stack so easily are what jumps out to me at first glance and I struggle to see a path today where this is not the stone chalk concept – for good reason. I will ALWAYS argue to play the top-tier K arms – on every slate, every single time. Pitching, and pitching with strikeouts, is what will give you ceiling performances and so Cole to me is the chalk to eat and simply move on and while I want to tell you that the Yankees bats are something we can fade – DraftKings made the pricing such where it gets difficult to even make the argument. I will always say, however – MLB DFS hitting is the most variable aspect of the game so if the Yankees bats are chalk and you want to find pivots – on a 12 gamer – we have options.

Finding the Pivots

The SP2 pairing and secondary stack become critical pivot points for us now in GPP build’s where we opt to get some Bronx chalk. If we see ownership later today and the chalk SP2 or secondary stack is where you are landing – that is where you move off – again, if you go Cole/Yankees as chalk, this is how you find ways to be different.

There are two SP2’s and two stacks that stand out to me as great correlated plays with our core concept and I think we can get builds that work well with a mixture of both.

First, let’s talk pitching – and how dominant Nathan Eovaldi ($9.6K) was the last time out against the Rays. The single most glaring thing about that start was how Eovalidy totally changed his pitch type – going to his curveball over 30% of the time which was by far the most he had used it in any start this season and it accounted for 50% of his strikeouts in that outing. That change in pitch type and strategy and the success he had with it – makes him an intriguing case but I also do wonder, with how chalky E-Rod was last night, is this a spot where game log watchers go to him as a default SP2 despite the price increase?

My favorite SP2 though is someone we talked about last time he took the mound and I am going right back to it after his price went down. What if I told you there was an arm on this slate with a 26% K rate the last month, who has a 14.5% SS rate and has struck out 6 and 7 batters in each of his last two starts where he went 6 innings and 100 pitches.

Welcome to Jackson Kowar ($5K) night my friends.

If you went this route with us last time you saw the good and bad with Kowar, an electric K arm but a youngster still finding his way. The Royals right-hander have up 6 ER on 2 HR’s but managed 11 DK points due to the 7 punchouts. We talk about this all the time – K’s are king in MLB DFS and they can get you DFS output even when the pitcher gives up runs.

What is interesting about this match-up tonight is that the Oakland A’s are right-handed heavy, with 6 of the 9 batters projected to hit from the side of the plate that Kowar has a 28% K rate against. The change-up is the key for Kowar with 5 punchouts on that pitch type in both of his most recent outings and his ability to use it as a putaway pitch to RHB is what makes this a tantalizing ceiling spot at minimum price.

One of the benefits of going Cole/Kowar tonight is that you can really pay up for a secondary stack and two teams – the Houston Astros and Boston Red Sox – have a correlation that fits perfectly with where we want to build around the Yankees core stack.

With Jordan Lyles and Tyler Anderson opposing these lineups, we get a chance to attack high ISO and HC arms with visiting teams and guaranteed 9th inning at-bats that fit around where the Yankees bats may be weaker.

Against Lyles, the reality is we have multiple paths to attack as he has a 1.8 HR/9 rate against LHB and a 2.25 HR.9 rate to RHB with 45%-50% HC rates to both sides so do not be afraid to stack this up on either side. The Astros once again could be a great high/low lineup with elite top-end bats like Yordan Alvarez but also $2K punts like Siri/McCormack in the OF.

Anderson on the other hand is far more traditional in terms of his splits with the right-handed batters sporting the higher power metrics with a .207 ISO mark and near 2 HR/9 rate. The change-up has really been the pitch to righties that have been walloped with a .467 ISO mark from RHB the last month – and both JD Martinez and Hunter Renfroe have .250-.300 ISO marks against that pitch type from southpaws.

We talked about this a lot yesterday – but secondary stacks are always more about position correlation and how they fit around your core stacks more than anything else. So if you are going Yankees at the core of your build – do not sacrifice for a secondary stack – simply find the one that fits best around it.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up

This is a strong MLB DFS Picks and Pivots Tuesday slate and one where I think we will see highly concentrated ownership which is always fascinating for a 12 game slate where we have so many viable pivot options.

I do think that ownership will become an incredibly important part of our decision-making tonight and where and how we choose to follow the chalk and where we find pivot paths off it. On a slate of this size, we won’t have trouble finding ways off it but we need to be smart and strategic in how we do it!

Good luck tonight all! Let’s keep that hot streak rolling! Come join the Win Daily Sports Team – grab a Gold Membership and take advantage of all the tools, articles, and expert coaching we can give you to make you a consistent winner in DFS.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Welcome to the Monday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!

If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather to walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!

Main Slate Breakdown

Welcome to an MLB DFS Picks and Pivots Monday where we are back on the grind after a big NFL Sunday! First and foremost, a huge congrats to Jon and Big T – two of the Win Daily Sports family that hit BIG yesterday – what a way to kick off the NFL season!

Secondly, after just laughably bad MLB DFS contests selection yesterday, let’s hope DraftKings does not continue with that trend on Sundays going forward. The way yesterday was set up, it was the easiest decision ever to simply skip the slate and I promise you – I will always be transparent if a slate is bad or the contest selection is not there – you need to take it off, and yesterday that was exactly what I was coaching members to do!

Thankfully today we have a solid 7 game MLB DFS slate and good contest selection and even better – the NFL newbies are going to infiltrate MLB DFS today to get their itch so we are going to get some folks playing that – well, shouldn’t be. However, for those of you at Win Daily Sports – we are going to break this down for you and help you build a strong lineup tonight for tournaments whether this is your first time playing MLB DFS all year or your first time since, well – we did this Saturday.

First and foremost, we need to decide on how we attack the pitching pool here, in what appears to be a really top-heavy sort of slate without much value we are going to feel good about. With Clayton Kershaw on a pitch count, we can safely move on but I do not think we have to move far and can anchor to the dup of Yu Darvish and Sandy Alcantara.

Sandy Alcantara ($9.6K) comes into this game in the best form of any pitcher on the slate, with a 35.2% K rate the last month which ranks 5th in all of baseball behind just Snell, Ray, Max and Cole. Yeah – that is how good he has been. His 32.1% CSW rate ranks 6th in baseball and his 18.1% SS rate is second in the league the last 30 days and so while his price tag may seem high, I would argue it is not high enough. Alcantara has double-digit K’s now in 3 of his last 4 outings and this spot against the Washington Nationals, should not be one that takes us off arguably the best pitcher on a short slate.

Yu Darvish ($9K) was a pitcher I was yelling to fade last game due to consistent dips in his velocity since his return from injury and then all he did was go out and shove 7K’s in 6 innings down the Angels throat. Listen, forget the game logs – go to the velocity – that is the key – it was back and it was a significant jump. The fastball which had been sitting in the low 93 MPH range his previous two starts was back up to 94.8 MPH which was actually above his season-long metrics and all of a sudden the swinging strike rate jumped with it.

That is all I needed to see – and the fact he is priced at his lowest point in 3 months is crazy. We are getting a significant discount on an elite K arm pitching in a pitcher’s park in San Francisco – it is simply too easy to go double aces today and that is the route I would suggest you all start with – this is not the slate to get cute with pitching.

Now if you are new to MLB DFS, looking to take some of those NFL winnings and double down – welcome to our little secret here at Win Daily Sports where we stack the best offense in baseball every single day at single-digit ownership. Welcome to Tampa Bay Rays Headquarters!

The Rays get a road game in Toronto, a guaranteed 9 innings of at-bats and a match-up with RHP Alek Manaoah. Now, Manaoh is a talented arm but the underlying metrics would tell you this is a brutal spot for him with his struggles against LHB and especially those who attack his pitch mix.

Over the last month, Manoah has a.6.48 xFIP and much of that is due to his struggles from left-handed batters, who are hitting him to a .323 ISO clip and overall his 1.8 HR/9 rate top LHB is where you want to attack. The Jays right-hander relies heavily on his sinker to left-handed batters – and hitters from that side are clocking it to a .364 ISO and 43% HC rate the last month.

Here is a secret that the MLB DFS family here has known for weeks – the Rays simply hammer sinkers from right-handers, so go ahead pal – throw ’em – it will end in some big-time points for our stacks.

Want proof? Sure you do.

Here are the big Rays lefties against sinkers:

• Brandon Lowe – .233 ISO, 51% HC rate and 305 feet avg distance traveled
• Austin Meadows – .297 ISO, 41% HC rate and 335 feet
• Ji-Man Choi – .171 IS), 61% HC rate and 307 feet

Now what is interesting is that Manaoah throws the sinker even more to righties but its been far more effective – in fact, he has given up just a 5% HC rate on it to RHB the last month which is pretty incredible. The flip side is that the Rays have right-handers with staggering power numbers against the pitch type so this is true strength versus strength type matchups.

Nelson Cruz and Mike Zunino both have high ISO and high HC rates against this pitch type and even more so, they both hit the slider well, which is utilized just as much as the sinker to right-handed batters.

When stacking here today, my focus would be the start with the lefties and get at least 3-4 of them in but then use the right-handed batters as “fill-ins” with the expectation that you have a game flow where they get to Manaoah early and get the bad bullpen arms to follow.

The Rays have so much value in the lineup and it is underutilized in how most stack this team – because you can take guys at the bottom of the lineup like Kiermier and Walls, especially as a road team where you can use the wrap-around stack and get them with Lowe/Meadows up top. This is one of my absolute favorite strategies to use when Stacking the Rays and it is so under-utilized.

There are two teams that I think make for strongly correlated stacks with the Rays – the Cardinals/Astros. Both teams give you punt/value options in the OF but even the big bats in the IF are priced at a level where you can mix and match them with the Rays big hitters.

The Astros allow you a similar wrap-around approach with cheapies at the bottom of the order like Chas McCormick ($2K) punt and Catcher Martin Maldonado. The Cardinals meanwhile have a value-heavy OF with Dylan Carlson and Harrison Bader sitting in the $2.7-$3K range in the OF. In both instances what you are doing is attacking road teams with guaranteed 9 innings of at-bats that correlate position-wise with the Rays stack as a priority.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up

Tonight’s MLB DFS Picks and Pivots slate is a strong one – and I one where I think we have more landmines than obvious plays so it could be the ideal tournament night where we simply take the clear approach with double aces and still have the ability to stack the big bats.

Good luck tonight all! Let’s keep that hot streak rolling! Come join the Win Daily Sports Team – grab a Gold Membership and take advantage of all the tools, articles, and expert coaching we can give you to make you a consistent winner in DFS.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Welcome to the Saturday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!

If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather to walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!

Split Slate Saturday

Welcome into a split slate Saturday of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots with two solid slates of Saturday baseball we can sink our teeth into but first, I want to take a moment to simply recognize today as the 20th anniversary of September 11th. For anyone of my generation, and especially for anyone like me who grew up in the NYC area, this is one of those days you remember everything about – where you were, who you were with, what the next days were like, etc – and those feelings you had 20 years ago, just take a moment to reflect on them today all those years later.

You will hear many stories about what this day meant to people but what I remember, most honestly were the days after. Maybe it was the haze and disbelief of that day that make it far more surreal but the following days and the feelings are something I won’t ever shake. The unity of the country, the outpouring of love across communities everywhere, and the genuine appreciation we had for being able to hug our friends and family. Tonight, the Mets/Yankees will play in New York and I am sure that Mike Piazza home run against the Braves will be played a million times – it doesn’t matter – the roar of the crowd gives me chills every single time. Sports were a way of healing then and today they still have the power to bring us together. Take time to remember that day and the days after – and remember that same unity, love, and appreciation we all felt and bring it into today.

Early Slate Breakdown

On this six-game early MLB DFS Picks and Pivots slate, well frankly – it SCREAMS the Picks and Pivots life and I am not sure a build could come together much easier at first glance. It all begins with two ace arms in Corbin Burnes and Zack Wheeler who are priced over $10K on DraftKings with the 30%+ K rate metrics that we covet when building our DFS lineups. Strikeouts are king, and pitching on small slates sets the tone – so today getting the chance to take these two as foundation pieces seems like the clear path.

The reason it becomes almost entirely too easy is because of how the pricing on the bats are set up – going right back to the well with the highly correlated Rays/Brewers stacks that once again SCREAM value.

The Rays take on Casey Mize and the Tigers and the right-hander has had pretty drastic splits this season with his struggles against left-handed batters really standing out – with a .258 ISO mark, 52% HC rate and 2.37 HR/9 rate.

The obvious plays are going to be Austin Meadows and Brandon Lowe here and with Ji-Man Choi back, this Rays lineup can flip to attack from the left side with ease but I am going to be fascinated to see what kind of lineup Kevin Cash throws out tonight. With Wander Franco injured last night – how will the Rays lineup look tonight? We could end up with multiple value bats here from the Rays with Taylor Walls, Kevin Kiermeir and Josh Lowe all viable options and all silly cheap batting from the left side.

The Brewers absolutely smashed for us last night and the pricing is still just laughable here today against Dan Plesac and the Indians with the wind blowing straight out at 15-16 MPH in Detroit today.

Plesac is a reverse splits arm with a .223 ISO, 43% HC rate and 1.91 HR/9 rate so the preference is to go after him with right-handed batters first and specifically ones that can hit the slider he throws over 40% of the time. Avisail Garcia leads the team from the right side with a 315 average distance traveled on that pitch type while Luis Urias has a .205 ISO and 43% HC rate. Over the last month, Garcia has a .326 ISO and 60% HC rate against RHP and at just $3.3K on DK is a slate-breaking HR call at a cheap mid-range price point! Garcia is going deep today kids.

Again, depending on the line-up here we could get multiple $2K punts with Daniel Vogelbach, Rowdy Tellez and Lorenzo Cain all at minimum price. You want double aces, big bats, and two highly correlated stacks – this is it kids – don’t overthink it.

Just one reminder – the Blue Jays/Orioles game is only a 7 inning double-header and 4 of the 6 games start after 6 PM even though the lock is at 4 PM EST so strategically – backloading your builds to give you maximum flexibility is key and the Rays/Brewers give you exactly that.

Main Slate Breakdown

The MLB DFS Picks and Pivots Main Slate is fascinating to me because even with just 8 games, it has a little bit of everything – we have ace level arms, we have multiple team with 5-6 IRT’s and the pricing is such where I think we can get really creative with our GPP builds.

I feel like the default build at first glance is going to be Charlie Morton ($8K) against the Marlins and a whole lot of Twins bats with a 6 IRT against Brady Singer and the Royals. While I get the Morton love (but be prepared for massive ownership) – let me say, I officially don’t get attacking Brady Singer ($6K).

If you guys have been following along Picks and Pivots, you know Singer is an arm I have been pushing for weeks and this has come as a result of his a new pitch mix approach which has frankly, made him totally different pitcher.

Singer has 5-6 K’s in each of his last 4 starts, with 15, 17, 18 and 29 DK points coming against offenses like Houston (2x) and the White Sox last time out.

Over the last four starts, Singer is using his slider nearly 45% and it has brought with it a 12% SS rate – guys this is a totally different pitcher and the results are showing. Now it is scary to see the 6 IRT for the Twins and going against Vegas, well rarely works out, but this may be the ultimate leverage SP2 play tonight – especially if you choose to use Morton chalk – pairing him with Singer could make for GPP gold!

Going down to Singer as an SP2 opens up all the bats and that is good because I want all the Houston Astros tonight against LHP Jose Suarez and the Angels. This is not an indictment necessarily on Suarez because his numbers have been solid but let’s not overlook the fact that he is still giving up a near 50% hard contact rate to right-handed batters which will be – well, most of the Houston lineup tonight and the righties have a .200+ ISO and 46% HC rate against lefties this season.

Suarez is a ground ball heavy arm who relies on that to keep his LOB rate up and strand runners. Over his last four starts, you are starting to see where the luck may be playing into it just a bit – with an 80% plus left on base rate and an xFIP a full run higher than his ERA. So if/when regression hits – it’s going to hit hard and this Astros lineup is as deep as we have on this slate – so going full in with the Astros bats and banking on regression for Suarez is a key part of this main slate strategy.

The other lineup with a ton of big-name power tonight is the LA Dodgers against RHP Chris Paddack. Paddack is giving up over a 1.5 HR/9 rate to both sides of the plate and 45% plus HC rates and this Dodgers lineup – well, you know the drill – is just going to come at him in waves as the late night hammer. Paddack has a 5+ xFIp the last month with a 56% HC rate allowed and so going Dodgers heavy here tonight alongside the Astros will give you an incredible offense-centric build with massive upside.

We are seeing Paddack have to rely more and more on his fastball, and anytime you are throwing a fastball to big league hitters 60-75% of the time – it is bound to get you in trouble especially with a 12% K rate the last month. Both Mookie Betts and Max Muncy have .400+ ISO marks against the fastball velocity and 60% HC rates and I would anchor my builds to these big bats this evening!

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up

Enjoy today’s MLB DFS Picks and Pivots slates as we have two good ones and a chance to build our bankroll heading into the first NFL Sunday of the season!

Good luck tonight all! Let’s keep that hot streak rolling! Come join the Win Daily Sports Team – grab a Gold Membership and take advantage of all the tools, articles, and expert coaching we can give you to make you a consistent winner in DFS.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Welcome to the Friday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!

If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather to walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!

Main Slate Breakdown

Welcome into a Friday Night MLB DFS Picks and Pivots slate – a strong 10 game slate with a good contest base on DraftKings that we can sink our teeth into and build some bankroll heading into a football and NASCAR weekend!

Let’s just get this one out of the way because to me, it is the must-have building block on the slate without any care how highly owned he will be and that is Robbie Ray as our SP1. There has been no better strikeout pitcher in baseball the last month than Ray with a 40%+ K rate, and while his $10.7K price tag is high, considering he is coming off four straight double-digit strikeout starts, including a 10K 33 DK point effort against the same Orioles team he faced tonight – well, maybe he is not priced up enough.

The SP2 decision is really where your decision process starts and I will be honest – the options by and large, are not overwhelming. We have great name value up top in bad match-ups and some shaky value in the mid to lower end of our player pool.

While it may be tempting to drop down to SP2 values that “can get there” – I am always going to anchor to the top arms when I can and I think paying up for both tonight will be contrarian. Framber Valdez ($9.1K) gets arguably the best match-up tonight of any arm against an Angels team that is striking out at the second-highest mark in baseball the last two weeks at 26.6%. The recent trends give you some potential upside but the flip side of this argument is that Valdez has just a 17% K rate against RHB the last month and the Angels are projected to flip the lineup over and roll out 8 of the 9 batters from the right side.

We have seen mediocre lefties like Keegan Akin, Cole Rivin and Austin Gomber all put up 20+ DK outings against the Angels since the break and Blake Snell just dominated them for 30+ DK points. I will always side with arms over bats and tonight going Ray and Valdez gives me K upside and the ability to still anchor to big time stacks.

It is a day that ends in Y and the Tampa Bay Rays are on the slate – on the road against the Detroit Tigers and LHP Matt Boyd. Over the last month, Boyd has seen his metrics spike to RHB with a .345 ISO and 45% fly ball rate and that is bad news with the Rays being able to flip their lineup to hit southpaws with power.

Over the last month, the right-handed bats in this Rays lineup have a massive .329 ISO with a 45% fly ball rate and a 45% hard contact rate. All of Manuel Margot, Wander Franco, Nelson Cruz, Jordan Luplow and Mike Zunino have .200+ ISO marks with Zunino’s numbers just looking fake – a .773 ISO and 72% HC rate – seriously. Stack the Rays. People won’t. We will. Rinse. Repeat.

One of the reasons we can do double aces with the Rays is the insane pricing on the Milwaukee Brewers bats – seriously, what is happening? Milwaukee has the highest IRT on the slate against RHP Eli Morgan, a pitcher who over the last month has a .260 ISO and 61% fly ball rate to left-handed batters and Milwaukee is just simply too cheap.

Christian Yelich is $3.9K. What?

You need a punt 1B – how about Rowdy Tellez and/or Daniel Vogelbach at $2K.

Eduardo Escobar is the most expensive bat at $4K.

Seriously – it is almost too easy today to go double aces and Rays because of the pricing on Milwaukee. Lock and load kids – we eat tonight!

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up

Good luck tonight all! Let’s keep that hot streak rolling! Come join the Win Daily Sports Team – grab a Gold Membership and take advantage of all the tools, articles, and expert coaching we can give you to make you a consistent winner in DFS.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Welcome to the Thursday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!

If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather to walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!

Main Slate Breakdown

Welcome into a 5 game MLB DFS Picks and Pivots Main Slate here on Thursday where, well let’s be honest – the slate is not overly exciting and DraftKings decided to scale back considerably on the contest selection with the NFL kicking off and the smaller baseball slate. I really hope this is not indicative of what DK will do going forward but history would tell us we will start to see MLB DFS contests scaled back especially on the weekends.

My advice to you as we head down the homestretch – if the contest selections are not good, scale back and/or take slates off. Never go full FOMO and play for the sake of playing – stay diligent in your bankroll management and keep grinding when the opportunity is right.

This 5 game slate starts at 6:40 PM EST and it is entirely front-loaded with every single game starting by 7:20 PM EST so we should have all the lineup news we need with plenty of time to spare before lock which is a nice added benefit of this slate (I am looking for silver linings people).

With it being a short slate, this is going to be one of those “strategy over best plays” deals I talk about in Picks and Pivots where we need to play against the field more than we would typically and account for ownership as we see it unfold.

With the Atlanta Braves sporting a 6+ IRT, my guess is we see a whole lot of ownership push to the expensive Braves bats and if that is the case, it may mean many similar build types due to salary constraints.

What that may mean is that the “high-priced arms” like Marcus Stroman and Jose Berrios become secondary priorities for people and my guess is most will go with one OR the other instead of both to jam in the big bats. However, I think with both arms sitting in the low $9K range, there is a path here to locking in the best floor/ceiling arms together on a short slate.

Marcus Stroman ($9.4K) will take the mound in Miami against the Marlins and while the Stro Show is not someone I typically look to pay top dollar for, I think his recent form and the Marlins recent trends set up ideally for a strong game from the Mets right-hander. Over the last month, Stroman has a 26.6% K rate and he gets to take on the most K heavy team on this slate with the Marlins who have struck out at the third-highest rate in all of baseball the last 14 days at 25.3% while also sporting the lowest ISO rate in baseball at just .116.

This is a high K spot for ceiling with considerable run prevention floor so paying up for Stroman here seems like the clear SP1 path. My only issue with Stroman, watching most of his starts as a Mets fan, is he is far more a pitch to contact guy and last game against the Nationals with the Mets up 9-0, he really struggled to put away hitters in a spot where he should have been going after them with such a big lead. If Stroman is insane chalk (think 75% or more) – I am fine playing the fade game and hoping for floor because as you will see in a moment – I think the Mets offense gives him a similar game script today where they get up big early.

Jose Berrios ($9.2K) is the fascinating play on this slate because his metrics would say he is perhaps the highest K ceiling arm but his recent boom/bust nature and a match-up in Da Bronx makes this the logical spot people move off of because of the inherent risk and desire to get more bats in their builds.

Over the last two games, we have seen the ceiling Berrios can deliver with 7 and 11K’s against the A’s and Tigers and there are a few underlying stats/metrics that make me believe he is turning the corner. First, his velocity has ticked up in each of his last two outings from season-low marks in August and that has coincided with increased use of his curveball – so more fastball velocity and leaning more on his highest K pitch – seems like a recipe for more strikeouts.

Berrios also saw a significant spike in his first pitch strikes – getting 75% of his pitches over for first-pitch strikes. There have only been two other games this season where Berrios got ahead at that rate – twice in July – and both games he had ceiling efforts with 8 and 10 K’s respectively.

This is not rocket science – get ahead in the count and use his curveball as his putaway pitch. Berrios to me has the kind of upside that I want to anchor to on a small slate and my hope is, people opt to pay down at SP2 tonight and leave Berrios under-owned.

The last arm I have interest in tonight as a pay-down option is Antonio Senzatela at $6.8K. Senzatela is a pitcher that MLB DFS players tend to pick on especially in Colorado and I never quite get why as he has significant ground ball metrics that suppress runs. Now the K metrics are not high by any means but they improve materially on the road and this is an arm that has put up double-digit DK outings in 8 of his 10 starts. If you are trying to jam in bats and are not sold on the Stroman/Berrios pay ups – Senzatela is my preferred SP2 play.

If the Braves and their 6+ IRT are the chalk then pivoting to other offenses is the move today. In fact, there is almost no need to eat hitter chalk on this small slate because the large majority of arms stink – so getting any ownership edge with our stacks is how we win today.

Over the last month, LHP Jesus Luzardo has been dreadful by all underlying metrics with a 5.70 xFIP, a 11% walk rate, with .300+ ISO marks to both sides of the plate and a 46% hard contact rate that is driven primarily by a 50% rate to right-handed batters.

Every single one of his offerings to right-handed batters the last month is getting hit hard with his fastball and curveball, which account for 35% of his pitch types, at .450+ ISO marks and the change/sinker which make up the rest at .300 ISO marks combined.

The Mets are by far my favorite stack on the slate today with Pete Alonso and Javier Baez my top two bats. Both hitters absolutely destroy the sinker from lefties with Big Pete sporting a decent .895 ISO and 58% HC rate with an average distance of 360 feet and 100 MPH+ exit velocity. Pete is going deep today. Book it.

The Mets are the road team here, so we get 9 innings of guaranteed at-bats and with switch hitters like Villar/Lindor at the top of the order it will make R/L splits once they get past Luzardo totally meaningless.

The other spot I love today is in Atlanta – and no, it’s not the Braves, it is the Washington Nationals. I have a feeling that Huascor Ynoa will be a popular pitching choice on this slate and considering his near 50% HC rates to both sides of the plate, this Nationals lineup has sneaky power appeal.

Over the last month, the Nationals bats have some staggering metrics against RHP with Juan Soto (.444 ISO and 57% HC rate) and Josh Bell (.341 ISO and 58% hard contact rates) leading the team. With Lane Thomas a cheap lead-off option with high fly ball tendencies and hard contact rates to boot – this top of the order Nationals stack could be the low-owned pivot off a potential chalky pitcher that vaults us up the leaderboards.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up

Tonight’s MLB DFS Picks and Pivots slate is not the best and it is one you should scale back bankroll accordingly on – but that does not mean we cannot get an edge in our GPP play and so staying locked into ownership in Discord will be key.

Lock in early, get some MLB DFS profit with us then kick back and watch the opening night of the NFL season!

Good luck tonight all! Let’s keep that hot streak rolling! Come join the Win Daily Sports Team – grab a Gold Membership and take advantage of all the tools, articles, and expert coaching we can give you to make you a consistent winner in DFS.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Welcome to the Wednesday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!

If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather to walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!

Main Slate Breakdown

Welcome into a 9 game MLB DFS Picks and Pivots Main Slate where we will shift our focus after a MONSTER night for the Win Daily Sports team with takedowns and green screens galore – you simply love to see it!

Congrats to each and every one of you who keeps grinding and improving your game daily.

The biggest issue we have tonight is weather – with rain/storm concerns in both Atlanta and Baltimore that could completely change how we attack this slate.

Pitching Picks

This Main Slate is really interesting because while we have a deep pitching pool in name/theory – the truth is, all the options feel overpriced and unnecessary.

Let’s break it down for you:

• Freddy Peralta ($10.2K) – On a clear pitch count as the season winds down and threw only 53 pitches last time out. No thank you.
• Shane McLanahan ($9.7K) – the swings and misses remain but so too does the hard contact and inability to put up zeroes and the Red Sox lineup is getting healthier.
• Nathan Eovaldi ($9.5K) – HAHAHAHAHA. He plays the Rays. HAHAHAHA
• Yu Darvish ($9.3K) – This is the trap play of the night and I think it is where we can make some serious waves by fading the arm I expect everyone anchors to after what Blake Snell did and with Shohei Ohtani still sidelined in the NL Park. We brought this up his last start before he went out and gave up 5 ER and 8 hits in just 2.2 innings but something is off with Darvish right now as his velocity remains significantly below his season long numbers and it is fair to wonder if the back injury is lingering. I want no part of him tonight as likely chalk – he is broken right now and I am not paying a premium with ownership in the hope the 35 year old regains his form tonight.

Frankie Montas ($9K) – of all the arms in this price range, he is the one I feel best about and his recent form at near 30% K rate with a 35% K rate against RHB stands out on a slate without many ceiling options. Getting Montas in Oakland is always where I prefer toplay him as well as his K rate increases, his HR/9 rate drops and he uses his elite ground ball skillsto limit hard contact and give you added run prevention. I don’t consider Montas a must play but if I am paying up for one arm today – it is him.

As you can tell, I am far from enamored with the pitching pool at the top and the sad reality is – it does not get any better as you drop down into the value range. There is simply not a single-arm I feel like I NEED to play or HAVE to use. So rather than play the arms themselves – are we better off playing the matchups?

There has been no better match-up for strikeouts in baseball the last month of the season than the Chicago Cubs and so while the volatility is real, so is the upside for Vladimir Guttierez ($7.7K) today. No team in baseball has struck out more than the Cubs the last month at a 29.1% rate and over the last two weeks, it has been more of the same with a 28.9% K rate that is a full 3% higher than any other team in the bigs. If the Reds right-hander can get a right-handed heavy lineup to cater to his 27% K rate the last 30 days against RHB – the path is there for upside but also realize you are paying a premium for the match-up and there is considerable floor here.

It may not seem it – but if we want consistency – well, playing a left-handed pitcher against the Orioles may be the way to go. Welcome to a Mike Minor ($6.7K) reccomendation – gross.

If you look at the recent trends for LHP against the Orioles courtesy of Statmuse, you will see that every single one of the last 14 lefties toface Baltimore has gone for double-digit DK points and 9 of the 14 have eclipsed 20 DK point outings.

While we never start a day thinking – man I cannot wait to play Mike Minor, the recent data would suggest there is a sneaky blend of run prevention and K upside for him this evening. In the context of this slate, give me 10-15 DK points and I will lock you in right now.

Time to Stack

We now enter into the stacks part of Picks and Pivots and let’s just cut the small talk and rename this – “How to Stack the Tampa Bay Rays Tonight.”

You would think after they continue to destroy every arm they face and coming off last night’s beatdown in Fenway they would be chalky today without Coors on the slate but the beautiful thing about tonight is that 5 teams have higher IRt’s than they do which means everyone will chase the shiny toys and we can keep stacking the best offense in baseball.

Sure Nathan Eovaldi is a talented arm, so was Eduardo Rodriguez and Chris Sale before that. Guys – this offense comes at you in waves from both sides with tons of power and the Red Sox bullpen is hot garbage on a platter. I am stacking 5 Rays – you should too. Unless you hate money – then don’t.

One key note – Randy Arozarena has been put on the paternity list and the Rays called up top OF prospect, Josh Lowe. He is $2K and has absolutely mashed in the minors. This Rays lineup just got so much easier and cheaper to stack. Giddy up.

At the same time we get the Rays on the road, we also get the Kansas City Royals against Matt Harvey and the Orioles pen in Camden Yards. If you have been to the Picks and Pivots party before you know I LOVE how these two teams correlate on DraftKings as you can mix and match the Rays and Royals in so many ways especially with the position flexibility they have.

So we get to the part now where you greedy HR hungry readers are waiting for. After 4 straight days of predicitng HR’s including a 1% double dong from Mike Zunino last night – I have to step up my game. And step I shall.

So I am going to call 2 shots for 2 Lock tonight.

Over the last month, Matt Harvey is giving up a .250 ISO and 60% HC rate to left-handed batters and he does so on two primary pitches – a sinker that he throws 31% of the time and has been hit for a .444 ISO and a curve he throws 21% of the time and has been hit for a .625 ISO mark the last month.

So we start with the sinker – and our first HR call of the night – Carlos Santana ($3K). Santana has a massive .342 ISO, 45% HC rate and team high 340 average distance traveled against this pitch. Harvey is throwing him a sinker tonight and it’s just like the ocean under the moon. Oh, it’s the same as the emotion that I get from you. You got the kind of lovin’ that can be so smooth, yeah. Give him a sinker, make it hang, or then forget about it.

Yes, I broke out a song lyric home run call. Smooth.

The other bat that stand out against the curveball is Andrew Benintendi – with a .309 ISO and 55% HC rate and a team-high 80% contact rate against this pitch type. With the hot and humd temperatures and the wind blowing in in KC – this is a spot where the Royals OF will get a hanger and deposit it in the Camden bleachers.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up

This MLB DFS Picks and Pivots slate is a solid one but also one that I think is not going to be clear tomost and require you to think differently. If and when ownership drives chalk today – that may help us identify some slight pivot paths off the build concept I outlined above.

Good luck tonight all! Let’s keep that hot streak rolling! Come join the Win Daily Sports Team – grab a Gold Membership and take advantage of all the tools, articles, and expert coaching we can give you to make you a consistent winner in DFS.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Welcome to the Tuesday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!

If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather to walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!

Main Slate Breakdown

Welcome into a 12 game Tuesday MLB DFS Picks and Pivots slate where we have some slight rain risk in Atlanta and St. Louis but overall we have a strong night of baseball with ace level arms, a game in Coors Field between the Rockies & Giants, and more than 5 teams with 5+ IRT’s early on.

Pitching Picks

Over the last few days, we have remarked a few times about how the pricing on pitching for DraftKings since about $1-$2K too cheap most slates – well, that has swung back with a vengeance today and DraftKings decided to inflate the pricing in a serious way.

Remember the last start when Gerrit Cole was $9.9K? Yeah well, today against the Blue Jays you are going to shell out $11.8K to use him! Aaron Nola was priced at $9.5K the last outing and despite getting just 2 DK points against the Nationals, his price has jumped to $10.6K tonight against the Brewers. Logan Webb has been great but he is now priced around his season-high at $9.5K in Coors Field- I think you are getting the gist.

I simply cannot wait to see ownership today to get an idea of how people approach Gerrit Cole at $11.8K against the Blue Jays stacked offense in Yankee Stadium. Cole pitched arguably his most dominant game against the Angels last time out with 15 K’s and will face a Blue Jays team he has not faced since June where he struck out 4 batters in 8 innings of work. After the Blue Jays dropped 8 runs in the Bronx yesterday PLUS the fact we have Coors on the slate – I really think this is a spot we could get Cole at under 15% ownership which would make him a fascinating contrarian pay up.

There is one arm that got a similar price bump in Blake Snell who was $7.7K in his last start and now sits at $9.2K but considering the recent form, it would be reasonable to argue the bump is not high enough. Over the last month, Snell’s 41.4% K rate is the highest mark in all of baseball due to three of his last five starts being double-digit K outings where he went for 30+ DK points in each against Arizona (twice) and the Dodgers.

The Angels are projected to go entirely right-handed heavy with no Shohei Ohtani in the lineup with this game being in San Diego and the Angels losing the DH which makes the match-up even more enticing for Snell as the Angels rank top 10 in baseball the last two weeks with a 24.4% K rate.

I really think with the match-up and price difference – we could see Snell at 2-3X the ownership of Cole and if that is the case, paying up for Cole over Snell could be a fascinating GPP strategy.

While we have elite high K arms up top – we also have an amazing bargain at SP2 in Jackson Kowar ($5.3K). Kowar is a former first-round pick, a consensus top 100 prospect in all of baseball, and one who was dominating hitters ta AAA with a 34% K rate and we are getting him tonight at a price point that is lower than 15 hitters on the slate.

The book on Kowar is that he has a plus high 90’s fastball that he uses to set up his best pitch, the change-up which he throws early and often to both sides of the plate. In his last start against the Indians, he threw the change-up 35% of the time, 44% of the time to LHB and overall got 5 of his 6 strikeouts using this nasty change-up with diving action to keep hitters off balance.

The match-up today with the Orioles is an advantageous one for K upside and I honestly hope the 5+ IRT for Baltimore keeps people off Kowar in this spot. Over the last two weeks, the Orioles rank 5th in baseball with a 24.8% K rate and the right-handed hitters specifically have a lofty 32% K rate against RHP the last month of the season.

The bottom of this O’s order is really where I think Kowar and the change-up can do damage as Jorge Mateo (39% K rate against the changeup), Kelvin Gutierrez (29.4%) and Pedro Severino (27.1%) struggle significantly against that pitch type. On a slate where the arms have been priced up largely in the top-tier, getting a punt arm with massive PP/$ upside like Kowar as our SP2 becomes a critical component to unlocking the big bats around them.

Stacks on Stacks

As we turn our attention to the bats on this slate, the 7 IRT for the Giants in Coors Field is likely to be everyone’s first stop but on a 12 game slate, I simply see no reason to play chalk offenses when we have viable pivots so I will be looking elsewhere and it all starts with the Los Angeles Dodgers against LHP JA Happ.

All year long we have picked on Happ with right-handed batters as his .254 ISO and 41% HC stand out and after giving up 8 hits, 7 ER and 2 HR’s in just ONE inning last time out against the Reds – there is no reason to shy away from the spot that has worked all year long for us in MLB DFS.

The book on Happ is simple – we want the right-handed batters with power as his 2.13 HR/9 rate against RHB this season is the 4th worst mark in all of baseball and with the Dodgers able to go right-handed heavy – this is a scenario where the Dodgers stack on the road with 9 guaranteed innings of baseball could win us a GPP.

The top of the order with Trea Turner, Mookie Betts and Justin Turner gives us the ability to stack three batters with 250+ ISO marks and all 45-50% hard contact rates against left-handed pitching. The ultimate narrative is this is likely Albert Pujols ($2.7K) last trip to St. Louis and while he is just a part-time player – his .310 ISO and 44% HC rate make him an incredible bargain in the heart of this order.

Depending on what we do at pitcher – either going double ace or dropping down to Kowar as an SP2 – it will vastly change how we attack our secondary stack – or will it?

Hello, Tampa Bay Rays on the road in Fenway Park.

The match-up against LHP Eduardo Rodriguez is one that E-Rod has won twice in recent starts, with 11 innings pitched, just 1 ER and 14 K’s and so you may be wondering why I would go out of my way to go back here. The starts that sit in between those Rays outings tell you E-Rod can be hit hard, giving up 16 hits, 8 runs and 2 HR’s in just 10 innings against the Indians and Rangers.

What is interesting about those starts is that E-Rod was ineffective with his change-up, giving up the entirety of the opposing HR’s on that pitch type and that has largely been the offering E-Rod has relied on nearly 30% of the time against the Rays in recent starts.

If you dig into the change-up in those outings – comparing the Rays starts versus the Indians/Rangers you will see that the spin rate is DRASTICALLY different and he also is getting a significantly different break on the pitch type. In those poor outings, the release point and his extension on delivery changed (for the worse) but he managed to correct that especially in his last start against Tampa Bay.

So it brings me back to why I would be willing to attack this. It is fair to wonder with E-Rod as you look at his pitch metrics if there is an inconsistency game to game in his delivery – one that has been there all year that has resulted in blow-up outings with multiple HR’s and crooked numbers.

What you are banking on is that this is the “down” outing from the Red Sox left-hander and you are overlaying that with the best lineup in baseball that dropped 11 runs on Chris Sale and company yesterday. We talk about it all the time but when the Rays get ignored, it is the best time to play them and with the up and down nature of Rodriguez – I love the idea of pairing their “volatility” with the steadiness of the Dodgers stack tonight.

We all know you are waiting for the 2Lock HR call of the day after hitting on each of the last three days so here you go ya filthy animals.

If E-Rod’s change is flat tonight there is a Rays hitter that is going to put one over the monster with a moon shot and that is Mike Zunino ($4.5K). Zunino has a .472 ISO and 48% HC rate against the change-up with a team-high 353 average distance traveled against that pitch type in his career and if we look at just this year – his 65% HC rate against that pitch type stands out as a boom or bust metric we can anchor to.

All it takes is one change-up from E-Rod that doesn’t have the spin/drop and BOOM – Zunino is sending one OUT of Fenway tonight. Book it. Lock it. 2Lock it if you will. See you later for the HR alert.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up

Tonight’s slate is an MLB DFS picks and Pivots GPP dream as the pricing and presence of Coors Field will drive some ownership to and away from spots that make our decision-making process a critical one.

Tonight is a night, being in our Discord is critical because we can give 1 on 1 coaching post ownership projections, that will really help you hone in on your builds.

Good luck tonight all! Let’s keep that hot streak rolling! Come join the Win Daily Sports Team – grab a Gold Membership and take advantage of all the tools, articles, and expert coaching we can give you to make you a consistent winner in DFS.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Welcome to the Monday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!

If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather to walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!

Main Slate Breakdown

Welcome into a Labor Day edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we have 7 games on the slate kicking off at 1:05 PM EST and some really intriguing GPP builds with strong pitching and fairly priced stacks.

At first glance, the name value of the pitching pool at the top end is really strong and while the recent form is not at the elite levels we have seen for our high-priced pitchers lately, I think anchoring to these higher-priced arms is the way to go initially. The fact that only Zack Wheeler ($10.1K) is priced above $10K on DraftKings, I think gives us a path to easily anchor to two aces here today without having to sacrifice at all on our bats.

Brandon Woodruff ($9.8K) is the arm that stands out to me at first glance with his 30% K rate over the last month that has been buoyed by a 36.5% K rate to left-handed batters and considering that the Phillies will likely have 5 of their 8 batters from the left side, this sets up for another nice ceiling spot for Woodruff.

Sonny Gray ($9K) may not have the recent form, but he has arguably the best match-up against a Cubs team that leads baseball in K rate over both the last month and the last two weeks and has been a consistent key to unlocking ceiling games from opposing arms. We have seen arms like Mitch and Brad Keller, strike out 8 batters each on their way to 25+ DK point outings with Carlos Hernandez and Dylan Cease both topping 30 DK points against the Cubbies in the last two weeks. The flip side concern with Gray is the recent form is rather pedestrian – a 22% K rate and just a 9% swinging strike rate so the real question is – are you going match-up or recent form?

If we are focused on recent form, Tarik Skubal ($7.8K) may be the best bang for the buck as he has a 30.9% K rate, 31.9% CSW rate and 12.4% SS rate over the last month, dominating right-handed batters with a 32% K rate. The opposing Pirates are likely to have 6 batters of their 8 from the right side, with those projected RHB having a 24% K rate against LHP the last month and overall Pittsburgh’s K rate the last month ranks top 10 in all of baseball.

In general – the pricing for pitching today on DK feels like every arm is just too cheap for what they are and the fact you can go with Skubal as your SP2, really allows you to pay for a higher dollar SP1 like Woodruff or Gray without issue.

The offense that stands out above all others today is the New York Mets against LHP Patrick Corbin. I have to think after their offensive outbursts the last few days that they gain serious ownership today but the underlying metrics really support going all in here and hoping that the field overthinks it.

Over the last month, Corbin is giving up a massive .361 ISO and 56% hard contact rate to batters from the right side and the pitch data gets really scary really quickly the more we dive in. Corbin throws basically two pitchers to RHB – a slider which he throws 46% of the time and has gotten hit to the tune of a .429 ISO and 68% HC rate and then his sinker which he throws 41% of the time and opposing hitters have hammered for a .296 ISO and 52% HC rate.

If we look at the slider, the big right-handed bats of Javier Baez (.364 ISO and 46% HC) and Pete Alonso (.256 ISO and 46% HC rate) stand out as elite plays. Against the sinker, Baez has an even better .543 ISO and 48% HC rate while the Polar Bear has a staggering .919 ISO and 58% HC rate.

Pete Alonso is going deep today. Book it. Lock it. Screenshot it. The man is going YARD today against Corbin.

Taking it a step further, the sinker data brings guys like Jonathan Villar and Kevin Pillar into play who are not only red-hot but also both have .250+ ISO marks against this pitch type.

This is where the game script becomes important as well – we do not simply need to load up on RHB that hit the pitch type well, because if you are stacking the Mets you are assuming they get to Corbin early and often and get into the Nats pen so you can play game script where now someone like Michael Conforto and/or Jeff McNeil get the advantage of the split later in the game and get you low owned difference-making performances.

Here is my take – the Mets may be popular today – but rightfully so and I think you need to plant your flag and go all-in today with them. If you only go 3 or even 4 deep in a stack, you are going to have a lot of overlap so make a point to go 5 deep with your New York stack and get the highest level of correlation/upside for GPP play.

The other chalky spot, at least I think, is going to be in Kansas City where the Royals get the benefit of facing the Orioles in Camden Yards. The Royals and Mets correlate perfectly on DK and it all starts with Salvador Perez ($6K) at catcher who gets the face a lefty with a near 7 ERA in AAA and the putrid Baltimore pen after that. $6K seems like a lot – it may not be enough – and frankly, I think he will end up one of the highest-owned bats on the slate.

The nice part about KC is that after Salvy, the stack is cheap and you can get RHB like Edward Oliveres, Hunter Dozier and Michael Taylor for $2.6K-$3K price points that help you balance the cost of Perez and the big time Mets bats.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up

Today’s MLB DFS Picks and Pivots slate is one that seems super clear to me at first glance – and while my gut is that it ends up being chalky, we tend to be wrong more often than not trying to predict ownership. So at least initially, I am going to take the path that the metrics tell me and if we have to pivot because of unruly ownership – we cross that bridge when we come to it!

Good luck tonight all! Let’s keep that hot streak rolling! Come join the Win Daily Sports Team – grab a Gold Membership and take advantage of all the tools, articles, and expert coaching we can give you to make you a consistent winner in DFS.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Welcome to the Sunday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!

If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather to walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!

Main Slate Breakdown

Welcome into a 10 game Sunday MLB DFS Picks and Pivots Main Slate where we get a chance to follow up on our red-hot day Saturday courtesy of the Mets/Rays bats that carried us to big-time early wins across the Win Daily Sports family!

Today’s slate looks like Picks and Pivots perfection as it all starts with two aces up top in Robbie Ray and Corbin Burnes that I plan on making the 1-2 punch to anchor my GPP lineups.

Robbie Ray ($10.1K) has been one of the most dominant arms in baseball the last month with a 37.5% K rate that ranks 2nd in baseball and a 18.1% swinging-strike rate that ranks also ranks 2nd. Ray is coming off three straight double-digit K outings that have resulted in 30+ DK points each time and today he takes on an Oakland team that while almost entirely right-handed will have to deal with Ray’s 40% K rate to RHB the last 30 days.

Corbin Burnes ($9.7K) being priced under $10K is a free square – this is how I felt with Gerrit Cole the other night and I feel the same way here today. Burnes K rate at 29.8% is a bit misleading to how dominant he has been as his 34.5% CSW rate is tops in all of baseball and his 17% swinging-strike rate is third in baseball right behind the aforementioned Ray. Burnes is coming off a K, 31 DK point outing and his price went down $500 – cool, got it.

Going double aces is the most logical path today as you are getting two of the best K arms in baseball, both of who are priced at a discount relative to their recent form. Just take the double aces and move on.

It is a day that ends in Y – and so here we go again with the best offense in baseball facing a bad starting pitcher – yep, another Tampa Bay Rays day my friends. I know by now you think we are just Tampa Bay public relations employees and this should be obvious – but even yesterday on a small slate the Rays stack was only 10% owned. Seriously, people don’t ever play this team – well, except us. We do and we win.

RHP Griffin Jax is today’s sacrificial lamb, an arm who over the last 30 days has some simply brutal metrics including a .400 ISO and 54.3% HC rate to left-handed batters with “just” a .317 ISO and 43% HC rate to RHB. Jax has given up 2 or more HR’s in 3 of his last 4 starts and on the season he has a 2+ HR/9 to RHB with a 3+ HR/9 mark against lefties. Seriously this is a smash spot for Tampa and I plan on loading up – but what else is new?

The truth is – this is an onslaught kind of stacking approach today where both sides of the plate are in play and you can do it with so many different price points.

The one bat on the Tampa side for me that is a MUST is Brandon Lowe. Over the last month, no hitter on the Rays has a better batted ball profile against RHP than Lowe who has a massive .338 ISO, 50% fly-ball rate, and an average distance traveled of 340 feet. Later this afternoon you are going to get a HR alert on your phone and it will say Brandon Lowe hit a HR. You will smile and then wonder, how did 2Lock know this was going to happen again? Screenshot this people – the 8AM coffee HR call is here. Rejoice!

Not only is it a double ace and Rays day but it is a Jon Lester Day too. Seriously, this is going to be so good.

Our boy Jon Lester faces a Milwaukee Brewers team he is familiar with but it is one that is banged up with the big right-handed bats we would want like Avisail Garcia and/or Willy Adames both current DTD. This is going to be a wait-and-see lineup day for the Brew Crew but it could be one that unlocks a TON of value if/when both Adames and Garcia are ruled out. I think Adames is a lock to be out since the post-game reports were he was due to miss time but we could see Garcia slide back in which would make him an elite play with his ability to hammer LHP.

This Brewers game is an hour after lock so we should have this lineup before the games begin but I would tell you – be ready about 30 minutes before lock to start building to find which Milwaukee pieces we can fit around a core Rays stack.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up

Sometimes the MLB DFS Picks and Pivots slate is so perfect you simply need to sit back and smile. We have double aces. We have the Tampa Bay Rays. We have a Jon Lester Day.

If this does not make you smile then I feel sorry for you because you hate happiness and money. I look forward to the screenshots later my friends – happy Sunday Funday.

Good luck tonight all! Let’s keep that hot streak rolling! Come join the Win Daily Sports Team – grab a Gold Membership and take advantage of all the tools, articles, and expert coaching we can give you to make you a consistent winner in DFS.

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