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Cleveland Indians

MLB DFS Aces & Stacks (Apr. 19)

Joel Bartilotta 2 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to Wednesday’s edition of Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.

It’s Wednesday and that means we have day baseball! Today we have a 10-game slate of MLB DFS. At first glance, pitching is pretty brutal this afternoon. Most teams are on the back end of their rotations. While that makes for a struggle to pick pitchers, it does make things a bit easier picking bits. There will be plenty of options for our MLB DFS stacks today.

Let’s dig and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Justin Steele vs. Oakland Athletics

Picking on the A’s with pitchers this season will be a thing. While they’ll occasionally show some glimpses of offense, they are bad. Maybe even historically bad. Against southpaws this season, they have an ISO under .100 and an OPS under .700.

With Steele, we have someone pitching very well in 2023. In his first 19 innings of work this season, he has a 26% k rate, a 1.42 ERA, and has done an excellent job of limiting any type of hard contact. Hitters have just a 23% hard-hit rate vs. him this season. This is a solid spot for Steele today.

Alex Cobb vs. Miami Marlins

As I said above, our options are pretty limited today. That brings me to Alex Cobb. The Marlins just aren’t a good lineup. Outside of Luis Arraez, they have little to no talent here. If Cobb can navigate around Arraez today, he should do pretty well. This is a Marlins lineup that has been below average vs. righties season. They have a 25% K rate vs. them and an OPS under .700. Nothing is a sure thing, but I do like Cobb’s chances of being able to do well here.

Trevor Rogers vs. San Francisco Giants

I said pitching was bad today and I meant it. The Giants have not been good vs. lefties this season. The projected lineup today has a 26% k rate vs. lefties this season and has hit for almost no power. They have a combined .078 ISO and a .257 wOBA. All extremely poor numbers.

Rogers hasn’t been that bad this season. His xFIP is just 2.76 and has done his usual job of keeping the ball on the ground. Hitters have a nearly 62% ground ball rate vs. him this season. If he can continue to keep the ball on the ground today, there’s no reason to think he can’t be one of the top-scoring pitchers.

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Madison Bumgarner

The Cardinals haven’t been the Cardinals of old so far this season, but oh what a matchup they get today. Madbum is well on the tail end of his career. The last few seasons have been brutal for the big fella and this season has been no different for him either. Through his first 3 starts of the year, he’s given up 5 ER twice. He’s statistically one of the worst pitchers in the game these days. I’m not going to be overly concerned with splits here as he’s been bad vs. both sides of the plate.

My Cardinals stack today will start with both Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado. They’re both extremely expensive and if I had to pick between the two, I’d go with Arenado. That said, I’m going to try my hardest to find value today because both guys are in smash spots today. Goldy hasn’t hit for much power yet vs. lefties this season, but his wOBA is pushing .400. Arenado has an ISO of .273 vs. lefties so far in 2023.

I’m also interested in guys like Tommy Edman, Wilson Contreras, and Tyler O’Neill. All 3 will have the platoon advantage and have shown in the past that they can easily handle left-handed pitching. While my lean so far has been the righties, every Cardinal is in play today. This is as good of a spot for offense as we’ve seen for them this season.

Cleveland Guardians vs. Spencer Turnbull

So far this season Spencer Turnbull has had some mixed results. His first 2 outings of the year were a complete disaster, allowing a combined 12 ER. He brought his A game in his last outing, allowing just 1 ER in 5 innings of work against a very inconsistent Toronto Blue Jays lineup. Until he shows some consistency, I’m going to attack him with bats. Lefties have so far been his weakness as they have a nearly .500 wOBA vs. him and a .276 ISO.

I’m going to build my Guardians stack today around Jose Ramirez, Steven Kwan, Josh Bell, and Will Brennan today. With Ramirez, the power has yet to really show up for him this season. Through the first 3 weeks of the season, he’s at just 1 homer. They’ll flow soon for him and today could be the day against a pitcher that gives up a decent amount of flyballs.

I also really like Josh Bell here. He’s been arguably their best hitter so far this year. Over the last week, he leads the team with 7 wRC. His 9 hits and 5 RBI also lead the team. For value, we’ll look to Brennan. His price is under $3k and will free up a lot of salary for us today and he should still be able to produce. Andres Gimenez is also a bat I like here. He’s got a plethora of talent and could be one of the top bats on the slate.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Austin Gomber

Austin Gomber is coming off back-to-back brutal starts. Over those 2 starts, he’s allowed a combined 10 ER, one of which was against the lowly Washington Nationals. While he hasn’t been getting hit too hard, he’s been giving up way too many flyballs. His flyball rate in 2023 is pushing 50%. Playing in Coors, giving up that many flyballs is asking for trouble. I’m going to focus mostly on the righties here. His flyball rate climbs from 36% against lefties to 50% vs. righties. He also gives up more hard contact vs. righties.

I’ll start my Pirates stack today with Brian Reynolds, Andrew McCutchen, and Carlos Santana. These 3 hit at the top of the lineup and have historically done well against southpaws. The top bat here is obviously Reynolds as he’s one of the top young bats in all of baseball. Santana has been a big producer for this team. Over the last week, he leads the team in RBI and should continue to produce today in a smash spot.

I also like Connor Joe and Ke’Bryan Hayes here. Joe, playing against his former team, has done very well vs. lefties so far this season. He has a .308 ISO vs. them and a .463 wOBA. He’s also very affordable at $3.8k today.

MLB DFS Summary

We’ll want to be careful today navigating our pitching. It’s tough sledding out there and most pitchers have a ton of risk. There’s no shortage of bats though as we have some really bad pitchers throwing today. I’ll be loading up on Cards and Pirates today.

Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

2 years ago 0 comments

MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Thursday – 09/02

Joel Bartilotta 4 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Thursday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a small 5 game main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.

My goal today will be to walk you through my 3 favorite pitchers and 3 favorite stacks on the day.

Before we dive in to today’s slate I wanted to take a few moments to talk about something extremely important to me. September is Suicide Prevention Awareness Month and a little less than 2 years ago suicide became very real for myself and my family. Two Octobers ago I got a call from my mother that is etched in my ear for the rest of my life. “Eric committed suicide”. He was the last person you’d expect to commit suicide. He married his high school sweetheart, had 2 amazing kids, a baller house, and a super successful business.

My brother also quietly suffered from demons that many of our friends, family, coworkers suffer with that we know nothing about. My request to all of you is to be conscience of your loved ones. If you notice a difference in a friend or family member or co-worker’s behavior, hold their hand. Talk to them. That simple outreach could save their life. If you are reading this and you are one of those suffering in silence, know you are loved by someone and your pain does not go away. If you ever need to talk reach out, my dm’s are always open.

With that said, let’s dig in to today’s slates!

MLB DFS: The “Aces”

This may be the worst pitching slate of the year so we’ll need to tread with caution.

Shane McClanahan ($10.1k) vs. Boston Red Sox – The match up isn’t the greatest but McClanahan is one of the top arms on the slate. Over the last month he’s been really good. He has 2.94 xFIP and a 27% K rate.

While he his hard contact is a bit higher than I’d like to see from my SP1, he also has one of the lowest contact rates of any pitcher on the slate. McClanahan’s biggest out pitch is his slider which he’s been throwing 35% of the time this year.

If we look at the Red Sox projected lineup McClanahan should have a solid night. The big bats in this lineup all have high whiff rates against the slider. If his slider is on tonight this could be a ceiling game.

Triston McKenzie ($8.8k) vs. Kansas City Royals – If I’m going to pick on the Royals I’m going to do it with a righty. In McKenzie we’re getting a righty who has really come into his own over the past month. His last two outings have been by far his best in the majors with 8 K’s against the Angels and then 11 against Detroit.

Now the Royals aren’t at the same poor level as those teams but they aren’t an overly intimidating lineup. While McKenzie does throw his fastball more than 60% of the time he uses is curveball when trying to put away batters. This is a pitch he can use to neutralize the Royals top two hitters in Merrifield and Perez.

Perez has a 39% whiff rate against curveballs and Merrifield has just a .195 wOBA against them. If he can slow down those two, sky’s the limit for him tonight.

Cookie Carrasco ($6.8k) vs. Miami Marlins – We don’t have a big sample size on Carrasco this year because he first made his debut a little more than a month ago. His last 2 outings he really has seemed to turn a corner and he did against two very tough lineups.

He struck out 5 Giants and 6 Dodgers. Now he gets to take on a much weaker lineup in the Marlins. The projected Marlins lineup tonight has a 25% K rate vs. righties over the last month. Carrasco is near min priced for a pitcher and we could do a whole lot worse at this price point.

MLB DFS: The Bats

New York Mets vs. Zach Thompson – This Mets pick is contingent on Thompson starting. Marlins haven’t officially named him the starter but if he throws tonight I’m attacking him with the Mets.

The Mets seemed to have turned the corner and are finally hitting the ball again. Tonight they get to take on a pitcher in Thompson who has been pretty bad over the past month. He’s sporting a 5.53 xFIP and a near 38% hard hit rate.

With Thompson we want to attack him with batters from the left side as they’ve had a .277 ISO against him over the past month. The Mets have 3 lefties that are cheap to inexpensive that I’m going to focus on. It starts with Michael Conforto ($2.5k).

To say this season has been a bust for Conforto would be quite the understatement. That said, over the past week he’s turned things around and we have short term memories in DFS. Over the past week he has a 1.185 OPS with 2 homers and 2 barrels. He’s seeing the ball well and he’s one of the most streakiest hitters in the game.

The other 2 players I’ll build my Mets stack around are Jonathan Villar ($2.5k) and Brandon Nimmo ($2.9k). Villar is the hottest Met with a 1.463 OPS and 3 barrels over the last 7 days.

Atlanta Braves vs. Chi Chi Gonzalez – A power house lineup vs. a gas can in Colorado means we have the potential for a huge number tonight. Gonzalez has been brutal this year as he’s pitched to a 5.4 xFIP. He’s someone that doesn’t miss many bats and gives up hard contact at a 45% clip.

Gonzalez is a reverse splits pitcher and we’ll want to attack him with the righties as he’s given up a .302 ISO to them this season. My stack here will start with Riley ($3.7k) and Swanson ($3.5k). Both guys have been torching righties over the last month. Riley with a .345 ISO and Swanson with a .268.

Gonzalez has no true out pitcher as all of his pitches get hit hard so lets focus on his main pitch, the fastball. It’s been getting hit hard at a 45% clip this year. Riley and Swanson both have slugging %’s over .590 on the year vs. fastballs. While those are my building blocks here, I’ll be sure to have some Freeman ($4k) and Soler ($3.6k).

Cleveland Indians vs. Mike Minor – While not confirmed yet, Minor is expected to start for the Royals tonight. Minor hasn’t been awful the last 30 days, but he does what we want in DFS and that’s give up homers.

He’s given up 6 in his last 22 innings of work. In 3 of his last 4 starts he’s given up 2 homers. With the Indians we have a team that has some pop against lefties, especially over the past month.

The projected lineup for the Indians tonight has a .248 ISO against lefties in August and a .377 wOBA. With the Indians it always starts with Ramirez ($4.5K). Over the last 30 days he has a .405 ISO against southpaws with a .431 wOBA. He should see a ton of fastballs tonight.

Historically Ramirez has crushed fastballs from lefties as he has a .302 ISO against them over the last few years with a average distance of 327. There’s a great chance of him taking Minor yard tonight. I’ll surround him with Amed Rosario ($3.4k) and Franmil Reyes ($3.3k) as both guys have done well against lefties this year.

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

Pitching is very suspect tonight. We’ll need to tread with caution with all of them but my lean right now is to go with McClanahan as my SP1. Red Sox have been beaten up by Covid and we should look to take advantage of it. I’ll look to the Mets for value tonight as some of the bats I want with the Braves and Indians are priced up, but fairly.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Thursday – 08/26

Joel Bartilotta 4 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Thursday edition of Aces and Bases. Tonight we have a nice sized 9 game main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.

My goal today will be to walk you through my 3 favorite pitchers and 3 favorite stacks on the day.

Let’s dig in to today’s slates!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Chris Sale ($10.7k) vs. Minnesota Twins – Through his first 2 outings after a couple of years off Sale has looked like his old self. He’s sporting a sub 2 xFIP and has a 32.5% K rate. While there’s a concern he won’t go deep, what he’s doing while he is on the mound is what we should be concerned with.

Sale is a master as keeping batters on their toes. He has a 38.9% chase rate and just a 64% zone swing rate. Both numbers indicate that batters really have no idea what to do when he’s throwing to them. If he goes deeper than he has in his first two outings today he should have no issue paying off his salary.

Max Scherzer ($10.5k) vs. San Diego Padres – If I had to pick between Sale and Scherzer I’d probably lead with Max right now due to we know exactly what we’re going to get. A dominant pitcher with little to no restrictions.

Since joining the Dodgers Max has a 32% K rate, a 13.5% swinging strike rate, and a 13.5% CSW. He’s elite, there’s no other way to really describe. While the Padres may sound like a tough match up, they really haven’t been setting the world on fire of late.

Over the past week they have a 26% K rate with just a handful of barrels and homers from their star players. Max will more than likely be my SP1 tonight.

Alex Wood ($8.2k) vs. New York Mets – The Mets psyche is totally broken at the moment and it’s something we should take advantage of. The projected lineup tonight has a 28.9% K rate vs. lefties over the past month and just a .111 ISO.

Both of those numbers are just dreadful from a team that was supposed to walk away with the division. Wood himself has been pretty decent over the same 30 days. He’s sporting a 3.56 xFIP and a sub 30% hard hit rate. Wood is my high risk/high reward pick of the night.

MLB DFS: The Bats

Cleveland Indians vs. Jordan Lyles – The Indians get to take on a pitcher tonight in Lyles that has just not been good at all this year. If we look at some recent data on Lyles we can see he’s giving up a healthy dose of fly balls and hard hits. His fly ball rate is 45% and his hard hit rate is 45%.

That’s a lethal combo for a pitcher. It adds up to him giving up 7 homers and 13 barrels in his last 31 innings. He’s been especially bad against lefties over that stretch as they’ve tagged him for a .379 wOBA and a .333 ISO. Insert Jose Ramirez ($4.4k) into my lineups.

He’s been crushing righties over the last month with a .361 ISO and .413 wOBA. He’s my core to the Indians stack tonight. My hope is that Daniel Johnson ($2.3k) makes the lineup tonight. In a smalls sample size of 13 PA against lefties in August he has a .250 ISO and .402 wOBA against righties. If he plays he’ll be right next to Ramirez in my lineup.

Another guy on the Indians that’s hot and will be sure to be in play tonight is Amed Rosario ($3.3k). He had a 10 game hitting streak snapped last night. He’s been super-hot and the matchup tonight should be good for him to get back on track.

Kansas City Royals vs. Yusei Kikuchi – Kikuchi has really hit a rough patch over the past 30 days. Some of it has been unlucky, but some of it has been his own doing. His fly ball rates and hard hit rates aren’t “bad” as they are middle of the pack. More than a quarter of his fly balls are leaving the park though and he’s been giving up way too many walks. His 5.48 BB/9 has led to a 1.87 WHIP over the past 30 days and both of those numbers are tops of all pitchers going tonight.

Kikuchi’s splits have been pretty clear. Play righties against him as they have a .306 ISO against him over the last month. The guy that immediately gets my interest here is Perez ($3.4k). He’s been crushing lefties all year long with a .349 ISO and .420 wOBA.

While he doesn’t necessarily hit for power, Merrifield ($3.9k) is another guy that will be sure to be in my Royals stack. Over the last 30 days he has a .378 wOBA against lefties. If you want to get a little crazy with the Royals stack, add in Michael Taylor ($2.7k) and his .438 wOBA against lefties.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Zac Gallen – Gallen hasn’t been that bad of late, but he has very clear splits over the last month that we can really take advantage of. Over the last 30 days Gallen has been getting mauled by righties. They have a .375 ISO and .380 wOBA against him. They also have a 71% hard hit rate against him.

Those numbers are really bad and with the Phillies having some really solid right handed bats the bleeding won’t stop tonight. Rhys Hoskins ($4.1k) is the bat that comes to mind first. Since coming back from the IL he has 3 homers in 2 games. He also has been crushing righties on the year with a .262 ISO, a.345 wOBA, and a near 50% fly ball rate. He goes yard tonight.

JT Realmuto ($3.5k) is another guy I’ll want in this matchup as he has a 46% hard hit rate vs. righties over the last month. Even though Gallen tends to do well against lefties, there’s no denying the spot that Harper ($4.1k) is in. He’ll see mostly fastballs from Gallen and over the last few years he has a .350 ISO against righty fastballs. These 3 all have a chance at homering tonight.

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

With pitching tonight I’ll more than likely stay in the upper tier as both Sale and Scherzer should do really well. In terms of hitting, Cleveland and KC both fit very well together and they will be the main part of my build.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Saturday, August 07

Jared Levitt 4 years ago

written by Jared Levitt

Welcome to the Saturday edition of Picks and Pivots. Tonight we have a nice sized 11 game main slate of MLB DFS on Draftkings to navigate through.

Main Slate Breakdown

It’s Jared and I’ll be filling in Brian over the next 2 weeks when I’m not writing Aces and Bases as he takes a much needed and well deserved vacation.

Tonight’s slate brings us a whole slew of options on the mound ranging from the top all the way to middle range. We have 4 pitchers at or near $10k tonight and I’m going to be honest, outside of Julio Urias ($10.5k) I don’t like any of them.

Garcia ($10.3k) rarely goes long and if I’m paying top dollar for a pitcher I want to see them go deep to maximize their salary. Yu Darvish ($10.1k) has really struggled over the past month. I’m not paying that much for a pitcher that hasn’t reached 20 DK points in a month and a half.

Brandon Woodruff ($9.9k) has a tough match up. Burnes, who has greater K upside, only struck out 5 Giants last night. Giants aren’t a team I like attacking with pitching, especially at almost $10k. The two guys that have my focus tonight are Charlie Morton ($9.4k) against the Washington Nationals and Eli Morgan ($7.4k) against the Detroit Tigers.

Lets start with Morton. We want to chase ceilings in GPP’s with our pitchers. With Morton, I’m going to do that, but I also know that Morton gives us a pretty high floor. Over the past 2.5 months Morton has scored less than 15 DK points just twice.

I like that safety net, especially with how volatile pitching is these days. Over the past month Morton has been very solid. He has a 28% K rate with just a 3.64 xFIP. Look for him to continue his solid ways tonight.

I should preface this with saying that Eli Morgan is far from a safe pick. He’s my high risk/high reward pitcher tonight. In GPP’s we don’t play it safe and we definitely aren’t here. Eli Morgan has been pitching much better of late.

In his last 3 outings he faced 3 very tough teams in the Athletics, Astros, and Blue Jays and came away unscathed. He actually had his best outing of his career against the Blue Jays with 9 strike outs in 6 innings of work. Morgan gives us K upside.

On the year he has a 26% K rate but over the past month has really turned up a notch with a near 31% K rate. He’s facing a Tigers lineup tonight that has been struggling of late. Over the past week no team has struck out more than them. Far from safe, but a ton of upside for Morgan tonight.

One of the reasons I went with pitchers I did was because I want a piece of the Reds lineups tonight and they are expensive. The Reds have scored 17 runs so far in this series against the Pirates and with a match up tonight against Mitch Keller I don’t expect them to slow down.

Keller has not had a good campaign this year. His xFIP is sitting above 5.37 with just a 21% K rate. Keller’s splits are pretty neutral as he gives up power to both sides. I do want to focus on the lefties though as he strikes them out less and gives up a bit more hard contact.

Winker ($6.3k) and Votto ($6.1k) have both crushed righties this year with ISO’s over .300. They are expensive, but are set up to have a field day today against Keller. Rookie of the year candidate India ($5k) and Farmer ($4.2k) are also guys I want to get from this stack. They are both locked in at the plate and will surely be part of any offense the Reds have tonight.

So we have a ton of expensive hitters so far, how can we afford them? Enter the Cleveland Indians. Over the past 30 days Tyler Alexander has an xFIP approaching 7. He’s giving up a ton of hard contact at 43% and his fly ball rate is nearing 60%.

With Alexander we really want to grab some righties as that’s where his struggles are. He’s given up a .374 wOBA and .242 ISO to righties this year. That’s not good. While Rosario ($4.3k) is great, he’s going to be tough to fit in with some of the Reds we’ve taken. I’m focused on Myles Straw ($2.3k), Harold Ramirez ($2.5k), and Austin Hedges ($2.3k). They all have the platoon advantage and provide us a ton of salary relief that we’ll need tonight to fit in the explosive Reds lineup.

The final spot I’m looking to for offense tonight is in Coors with the Colorado Rockies. Jesus Luzardo’s biggest weakness is batters from the right side of the plate. His wOBA balloons up to .385 against them and DK did not price up the righties in this match up. Rodgers ($3.8k), Cron ($4.1k), and Diaz ($4k) are all mispriced for the environment and match up.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up

Tonight’s pitching has a bunch of land mines at the top tonight. I’m going to shy away from there and live with guys like Charlie Morton and Eli Morgan. Offense I’ll be looking to go with a hot Reds lineup and then sprinkle in some cheap Indians and Rockies.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Sunday Funday – 06/27

Joel Bartilotta 4 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Sunday Funday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a nice sized 11 game main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.

**FD still has the CHW/SEA game on the main slate. I think they’ll follow suit from what DK did and remove it from the main slate since the game is now at 4:30.

Today’s FD slate brings us a couple of studs on the mound and then some mid-range guys that may fit nicely with the Blue Jays. We also have some of my favorite pitchers to pick on, Chi Chi and Happ.

Let’s dig in to today’s slates!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Max Scherzer ($11.2k) vs. Miami Marlins – Mad Max showed a little rust in his last outing after having only thrown 12 pitches over the previous 18 days. In that outing, while he still struck out 8 Phillies, he did throw 106 pitches in 5 IP. My money says he has a much more efficient outing vs. the Marlins today.

Scherzer gets to face off against a team today has really struggled against righties this season. On the year they have a 25% K rate and a measly .135 ISO. Scherzer faced this team earlier this year and had a 9 inning 9 k performance.

While complete games are few and far between these days and I don’t see that happening again, having another 9K performance certainly is within the realm of possibilities.

Patrick Sandoval ($7.8k) vs. Tampa Bay Rays – There’s always risk in using pitchers against the Rays as they have a bunch of guys that can homer at any time. They also have a bunch of guys that can K multiple times a game and that’s what we’re chasing in DFS.

On the year the Rays have a 28% K rate against lefties. Of all the teams going today, that’s the highest mark if we look at the handedness of who they are facing.

In Sandoval we’re getting a guy who I think should be at least $1k more expensive than he is. Over the past 30 days Sandoval has a near 33% K rate. That’s in the elite category. He’s also doing a great job limiting hard contact. He’s actually giving up more soft contact than he is hard. Again there’s always a risk in using pitchers vs. the Rays, but this is a good match-up for Sandoval.

Jake Odorizzi ($7.6k) vs. Detroit Tigers – After struggling to start the year, Odorizzi has been pitching pretty well of late. Over his last 30 days he has a 3.31 xFIP and a K rate nearing 29%. He’s also been doing a great job of limiting hard contact which is at just 26%. The lineup he’s projected to face today has a 25% K rate on the year to righties. At only $7.6k, we really don’t need much to return value. I’m going to most likely use one of Scherzer or Sandoval, but you could do a lot worse than Odorizzi today.

I noticeably left off both Wheeler and Cole from my list of pitchers. I don’t like either match-up for them, especially at their price points. Wheeler is $11k facing a healthy Mets lineup. He also looked very shaky in his last outing. Could it have been related to no more sticky substances? It very well could be.

Cole is also $11k and facing a very a good Red Sox lineup. He has not been himself over the past 30 days with just a 25% K rate. I’m off both of them today.

MLB DFS: The Bats

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles – Blue Jays are the clear cut favorite stack of the day. While Lopez hasn’t been awful over the past 30 days, he’s giving up a ton of contact, of which nearly 40% of it his hard contact. A pitcher throwing to contact vs. a lineup like the Blue Jays is just a recipe for disaster.

Lopez throws his sinker more than 35% of the time to both sides of the plate. Blue Jays, up and down this lineup, have a ton of success vs. this pitch. Semien ($3.7k), Bichette ($4.3k), Springer ($4k), Biggio ($3.3k), Grichuk ($3k), and Gurriel ($3k) all have ISO’s greater than .220 vs. this pitch.

If using this stack today, you could certainly make the case to fade Guerrero as the “other” guys in this lineup are all set up to have a great day and come at a discount from him. Blue Jays have a 6.72 IRT as I write this. The only reason to fade them today is to be different and hope they all forgot how to hit overnight.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chi Chi Gonzalez – Gonzalez is one of the worst pitchers in baseball. When he’s on the mound, I’m stacking against him. On the year he has a 5.17 xFIP, a 13% K rate, and a 41% hard hit rate. So we have someone that gives up a ton of contact with a healthy amount of that contact being hard contact. In his last 20 innings of work he’s given up 8 barrels. That’s just an absurd rate.

If we dig into splits data, Gonzalez has been giving up more hard contact to righties than lefties. This means we really don’t need to worry about platoon splits much because even righties are tagging him. My main targets from Milwaukee today will be Wong ($3.1k) if he’s back in the lineup, Yelich ($3.8k), Garcia ($2.7k), and Narvaez ($2.4k). If Wong is out I could see Bradley ($2.1k) being moved up to the lead-off spot. Should that happen, I’d love him in the spot.

Cleveland Indians vs. J.A. Happ – Happ’s xFIP is nearing 6 at this point. On the year it’s at 5.93. That’s bad. There’s really nothing else you can say about it. He’s been especially bad against righties this year. He’s giving up a .263 ISO, a 48% fly ball rate, and a 40% hard hit rate vs. righties.

I’m loading up on guys from the right side of the plate today. The top 3 guys vs. lefties this year from the Indians surprisingly don’t include Jose Ramirez ($4.2k). While he’s still in play, he’s expensive. Hernandez ($3.1k), Amed Rosario ($2.6k), and Harold Ramirez ($2.8k) all have ISO’s over .200 this year and come at steep discounts over JRam. Those 3 guys plus Scherzer still gives you nearly $3,100 per player to fill out your roster.

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

Sunday always presents us with the added risk of veterans sitting due to it being getaway day. Make sure to keep an extra eye on lineups. It’s going to be a hot one on the east coast today so games that are in New York, Boston, and Buffalo may seem some extra offense.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Sunday Funday, 5/23

Joel Bartilotta 4 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Sunday Funday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a nice sized 10 game main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.

Today’s slate, like many Sundays, is void of true aces. We have some decent pitching options, but none that I’m 100% confident in. What I love about this slate though is that we have some of our normal targets.

With that being said, let’s dig in to today’s slates!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Hyun-Jin Ryu ($8.9k) vs. Tampa Bay Rays – We saw last night what lefties can do to the Rays. Ray struck out 7 in 7 last night and the only damage he gave up was a Mike Zunino home run. The heart of the lineup really gets neutralized when a lefty is on the mound.

Today we get another pretty good lefty in Ryu. In his last 3 starts Ryu has had 2 games of 6 k’s and 7 in his last one. With a match-up against the Rays, there’s definitely some upside in that number. For the season, the Rays are striking out at a near 31% clip with limited power numbers to lefites. That’s one of the worst marks of any team. Look for a successful afternoon from Ryu.

Max Fried ($8.5k) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates – Fried has been pretty decent this season. Although he has a mid 5 ERA, both his SIERA and xFIP are hovering around the 4 mark which means he’s seen some bad luck on the season. He has a respectable K rate of around 25% but the sign that’s been the most encouraging is that he has a 26.5% soft hit rate.

With the Pirates being a soft hitting team, it really sets up well for Fried to have an upside type of game. They are striking out at a near 25% rate vs. lefties and a wRC+ of 79. At his price point today, I like Fried to get you some nice value. No reason to think he can’t get you 40+ points in this matchup.

Freddy Peralta ($9.9k) vs. Cincinnati Reds – I’ll be honest, I don’t love the match-up for Peralta today. For the season, the Reds have been really good against righties. The have a low strikeout rate of 22% and some meaty power numbers. Peralta, however, is the top pitcher on the slate with by far the highest K rate.

In DFS, K’s are king for pitchers. Peralta has only one outing this season where he’s had less than 7 K’s. He has a slate leading 39% K rate and there are only a few in the game with a higher K rate. Strike out pitchers will get their strike outs. While this is far from a safe match-up for Peralta, whenever he is on the mound he’s going to be a pitcher that needs to be in your pool.

MLB DFS: The Bats

Washington Nationals vs. Matt Harvey – The Harvey experiment in Baltimore has taken a turn for the worst. Luckily for us, Baltimore doesn’t have many other options on the horizon so they’ll continue to throw him out there. After a successful start to the year, Harvey has had 2 straight very rough outings, giving up 7 ER to his old team the Mets and 6 ER to the Rays.

Fanduel did price up the Nats a bit for today’s match-up with Harvey, but with the options laid out for pitching being on the cheaper end there’s no reason you aren’t able to squeeze the heart of the lineup in. I’m going to target Treat Turner ($4k), Juan Soto ($3.9k), Josh Bell ($3.5k), and Kyle Schwarber ($3.6k) in this one.

If you want to differentiate yourself a bit, you could also start this stack at Bell and add in Starlin Castro ($2.4k) and Josh Harrison ($3k). I’m a little sour on Soto right now. While he can get a hold of one at any moment, his negative launch angle really has me concerned.

Cleveland Indians vs. J.A. Happ – I’d love this lineup a lot more if Reyes was healthy. He left yesterday’s game after getting hurt on a swing. That said, I still really like the Indians vs. Happ today. Hap has by far the highest xFIP on the day. More than a full run higher than anyone else on the slate.

With most eyes being on the Nationals today, I think people will forget about the match-up here. Indians are far from a terrorizing lineup, especially without Reyes in there. Happ at this point in his career is just not. He’s given up 15 runs in his last 2 starts, albeit against the powerful lineup of the White Sox. He had been flirting with disaster all season but luck was on his side.

I probably won’t go full stack here, but I’m going to target the likes of Cesar Hernandez ($2.7k), Amed Rosario ($2.1k), and Jose Ramirez ($4k).

Houston Astros vs. Mike Foltynewicz – After giving up 11 homers through his first 7 starts of the year, Folty has managed to keep the ball in the park in his last 2 starts. Ironically, those 2 starts had 2 of his highest xFIPs this season.

Folty is someone that we should continue to target, especially when we have lineups like the Astros. The Astros faced Folty a couple of weeks ago, and although they only put up 3 runs against him, the metrics from that game indicated more could have been done.

Their hard + medium contact in that game was nearly 90%. With this being the 2^nd time they are seeing him this season, I like their chances of putting up a much bigger number than they did last time out. I’m going to build my Astros stack around Yordan Alvarez ($3.3k). He profiles extremely well against the pitches that Folty throws.

Today is the last game in Dunedin, FL. While I didn’t write up the Blue Jays, I really like them today. They will most likely face off against a tandem of Michael Wacha and Josh Fleming. Wacha appears to be the opener with Fleming potentially coming in after him. If a more detailed plan like this comes out later this morning, I’d move the Blue Jays into the top 3 stacks. The usual suspects would be in play here.

I’d be remiss if I also didn’t mention the Orioles. Corbin has been someone that we have targeted often this season. As evidenced by their game yesterday, they can tag lefties.

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

Is today the final start for Harvey as an Oriole? I hope not, but I’m going to target him like it is. This is setting up as a fun slate. Pitching, while mediocre, appears to be focused on only a handful of pitchers and offense looks to be spread out.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Sunday Funday – 04/11/2021

Jared Levitt 4 years ago

written by Jared Levitt

Welcome to the Sunday Funday version of Aces and Bases. We have a nice 10 game slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel today.

Today’s slate is void of any true ace and because of that I envision ownership being pretty spread out. As a result, none of the pitchers going today will give you the warm and fuzzies.

Something that you’ll all need to keep an eye on today is weather. There’s potential for rain in Baltimore (should be cleared out by game time), Dunedin (Toronto via Buffalo 🙂 ), NY, and Chicago. While I don’t think any games are PPD threats, it is something you’ll want to monitor throughout the morning leading up to game-time.

Let’s dig in to today’s slate!

MLB DFS: The Aces, or Lack Thereof

The first pitcher I’m recommending today is Jordan Montgomery ($8.5k). In his first outing this year he was splendid. He pitched 6 innings with 7k’s and only gave up 4 hits. In that start, he had some really promising metrics. 19.2% SwStr%, a 26% soft contact rate, and a chase rate of nearly 56%. Outside of Arozarena, the majority of the Rays power comes from the left side of the plate. This is not a 100% safe spot for Montgomery, but he has some upside in this match-up.

Next up on the list is Matt Shoemaker ($7.8k). I told you at the start there were no aces going today, and I meant it. Over the past week the Mariners have a 33% k rate. Anytime the rate gets that high you really need to look at attacking them, regardless of the skill-set of the pitcher. Bad hitters can make average pitchers look good. In his first start of the year against the Tigers, the maker of shoes threw 6 innings and came away with 5 k’s, a QS and a win. At his price-point that’ll do it. He also had a chase rate of nearly 41%.

The final pitcher I’m recommending today is Trevor Williams ($8k). Williams gets to face off against his former squad and I fully expect him to take advantage of it. This is a very weak hitting lineup and not one that should scare anyone. In his first start, Williams pitched to an xFIP of 2.99, a k rate of 27.3%, and a hard hit rate south of 31%. All great numbers.

On a day like today where there’s no true ace, I’ll find myself starting a pitcher that will be able to limit the damage and I feel like the 3 pitchers above fit that bill.

Now on to the fun part!

MLB DFS: The Bases

There are some things in life that should be considered absolutes. Death, Taxes, and the White Sox against a lefty. The White Sox get to face off against Mike Minor today. Let’s take a look at some career woba’s against lefites. Robert ($3.2k) – .358, Abreu ($3.9K) – .404, Mercedes ($3.2k small sample size alert) – .576, and Grandal ($3.6k)– .376. That’s enough of a look that will want you looking here for offense.

My next stack has me going to another AL Central team, the Indians. The Indians get to face-off against Mr. Jose Urena. In his first start Urena battled control issues, walking 4. Add in the 4 hits he gave up, this is a recipe for runs. Lots of them and that’s what you want to target. Pitchers that will let a high number of runners on. Just keep the carousel going. The 4 hitters here that I’ll be targeting are Hernandez ($2.7k), Ramirez ($4.1k), Rosario ($3.2k), and Reyes ($2.8k). Reyes is one of the hottest hitters in the game right now.

My final stack of the day has me going fishing. Mike Trout’s Angels. Tanner Roark is not a good pitcher, at least not anymore. In his sole start of the year he gave up 3 dongs in 3 innings of work. He also had a nice hard hit rate of 69%. If this game plays, feel confident in rolling out Ohtani ($3.5k), Trout ($4.5k), Rendon ($3.5k), and Walsh ($3k). The game between these 2 teams did end late last night so they have a quick turnaround to play today. Make sure to keep an extra eye on this lineup.

MLB DFS Sunday Funday Summary

As with every Sunday slate, make sure to keep an extra eye on lineups. With it being getaway day, players (especially catchers) tend to get today as an extra day off.

Enjoy today’s slate. It has the makings of an offense heavy slate. Remember, chicks dig the long ball.

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4 years ago 0 comments

Collector’s Corner: 2021 MLB Breakouts – AL Hitter Trading Cards

jason mezrahi 4 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

This week’s Collector’s Corner takes an early look at some possible 2021 breakouts in the AL – and the trading cards to collect from this bunch.

By now, everyone knows to collect Luis Robert trading cards, but there’s a huge crop of baseball prospects whose trading cards could see a huge bump in 2021 and beyond if they have breakout seasons. Here are nine such players in the AL you should be stocking in your collection.

NOTE: I’m using my Cash/GPP/Punt system again since it translates well to the DFS/trading card investment comparison.

Breakout Trading Cards – Cash

Wander Franco, TB SS

I shouldn’t have to say much about Franco – who’s now the top prospect in baseball – but since he hasn’t played since 2019, he’s flying a bit under the radar.

Franco does everything well and is projected for about 90 games at the major league level in 2021 – a call-up that will immediately cause a bump in his rookie trading cards. You can buy 2019 1st Bowman #BP100 PSA GEM MINT 10 rookies for $100-125 apiece, and parallels and autos – while expensive – remain excellent long-term investments. I’m happy to have a sharp 2020 Bowman Chrome Sapphire #BCP-1 (second year) in my collection, but I’m working on adding some of his rookies.

He’s not slated for a spot in the Rays lineup on day one of the 2021 season, but once he’s here he may be here to stay.

It’s his second year, but I love the look of this card. The Bowman Chrome Sapphire is one of my favorite products.

Ryan Mountcastle, BAL OF

Mountcastle had an auspicious 2020 debut for the Birds, and he did an excellent radio interview where he talks about the transition to the majors and how he fared in his rookie season (“I held my own”). The multi-positional fielder – who played mostly outfield for Baltimore – posted a solid .333/.386/.492 slash line with five homers and a 141 wRC+ in 35 games.

It’s a small smaple, for sure, but I love guys who can play all over the diamond and remain entrenched in the everyday lineup, and Mountcastle is one of those guys. THE BAT, ZIPS and Steamer projections for 2021 all have him hitting over 20 homers with a wRC+ north of 100.

You can pick up graded 2015 rookies for a reasonable price, and he’s a hitter who’ll be smack dab in the middle of a potent group of young hitters, so his 2021 production could well exceed expectations.

Bobby Dalbec, BOS 1B/3B

This guy can mash. He hit eight homers in just 92 ABs for the Red Sox in his 2020 debut, and as a corner infielder he should consistently find a way into the Boston lineup. The 42.4% K rate is a bit disconcerting, but as far as raw power metrics goes, his .338 ISO stands out as an obscene number that points to 40+ HR upside for the 2016 draft pick.

2021 projections from the aforementioned sources are unanimous in assuming 25+ HRs for the upcoming season, and his path to 30+ is only clouded by how often he can make things happen and avoid a prolonged slump at the dish.

A natural third baseman, his 2016 Bowman Chrome Draft rookie trading cards are still dirt cheap, and he’s a solid investment in a huge market city – even if he’s a guy who strikes out almost 200 times in a 15-game season.

This PSA 10 Dalbec in a rare blue refractor parallel auto can be had for less than $1K — a price that could double or triple in value if he has a monster season in Boston.

Breakout Trading Cards – GPP

Andrew Vaughn, CWS 1B

With Robert off the list and getting regular MLB at-bats, Vaughn is now the No. 1 prospect in the White Sox system, and while he’s not expected to start the 2021 season in the majors, he’s just 22 years old slated for a mid-season arrival.

There’s not a clear path to regular playing time in the field just yet, but Vaughn could become the White Sox DH for a large chunk of the 2021 season, which could be a difficult adjustment for someone used to playing the field.

Still – he was so good in big league campo after he was drafted in 2019 that he was almost brought up to the majors in 2020. While his 2019 trading cards are pretty hot, there’s still plenty of room for growth. I really hate the 2019 Bowman design, but that’s his first Bowman card. I did manage to pull a couple of his 2020 Bowman Chrome Mega Box Mojo Refractors, but it’s important I cave and just grab some of his rookies.

My buddy Chris Gilmore over at Vintage Breaks owns this beautiful PSA 10 Vaughn rookie in the 2019 Bowman Sapphire Edition. He shows it off once in a while during his VB South breaks on YouTube.

Jo Adell, LAA OF

Adell didn’t find much success as a rookie outfielder for the Angels in 2020, but he’s still 21 years old and has the tools and talent to bounce back in his sophomore campaign.

He may start the 2021 season in the Triple-A, and there’s a few hard-hitting outfielders who could complicate his return to The Show – but all five-tool prospects are worth some additional development if it increases their confidence. Adell was clearly rushed into the bigs last year – probably because he’s a high-energy guy and they wanted him to play baseball instead of languishing in the pandemic-induced hiatus that may have stunted the growth of an untold number of MLB prospects.

As a result, his 2017 rookie trading cards – even PSA 10s – are very inexpensive for an organizational No. 1. He’s worth adding to your collection and seeing what happens in the coming season.

Sean Murphy, OAK C

Murphy has the offensive and defensive chops to be an All-Star major league catcher for a long time, and we’ve already seen a little of what he’s capable of at the big-league level.

A legitimately great defender at a premium position who looks a lot like a poor man’s Buster Posey when it comes to his pitch-framing and solid bat, Murphy’s 2020 debut was promising – with a .233/.364/.457 slash line, seven HRs and a 132 wRC+ in just 43 games. That stretch earned him 1.5 WAR and an everyday spot in the Athletics’ lineup.

His 2018 Bowman Chrome rookie trading cards are still a huge bargain, and you can pick up a PSA 9 MINT auto rookie for under $100.

Breakout Trading Cards – Punt

Nolan Jones, CLE 3B

Like Dalbec, Jones was drafted in 2016, and his rookie trading cards are also still very affordable. He’s also got immense raw power, as seen by the .213 ISO he posted in 2019 for the team’s Double-A affiliate. Unlike Dalbec, he hasn’t played since 2019 since he wasn’t called up to the bigs.

Jones is now the No. 1 prospect for Cleveland and may or may not get his shot in 2021 – but we’ve seen hitters like him arrive to fill a lineup gap and just never leave. There’s probably less long-term risk involved than Dalbec, but he may not provide immediate dividends.

Evan White, SEA 1B

Kyle Lewis made a huge splash in 2020 and Julio Rodriguez may be ready to arrive by late 2021 or early 2022, but White will be in the Mariners lineup on opening day. His 2017 Bowman Chrome rookie autos are selling (raw) for low prices and PSA 10s can be had in the $100-200 range.

White struggled at the dish as a rookie in 2020 (.176/.252/.346 slash with a 41.6% K rate and just eight dingers in 200+ ABs), but THE BAT and Steamer projections have him improving drastically in 2021; only ZIPS has him hitting fewer than 20 homers with an average under .230.

For $140, this could be a steal if White can make more contact and hit a few more homers in 2021.

Nick Solak, TEX 2B

Big Nick is slated to bate out of the No. 5 slot in the Rangers 2021 lineup, and while he’s on his third organization since being drafted by the Yankees in 2016, his 2020 Topps trading cards earned the RC logo and are very cheap, very good investments.

Solak had a great MLB debut in 2019, took a step back in 2020, and is poised for a big 2021. His rookies have him on the Yankees, so that may not hurt their ability to fetch big prices as much as say 2015 Bowman Draft Mike Yastrzemski rookies in Orioles gear. He’s not a great defender and isn’t going to be a guy who hits 30+ homers or steals 30 bases, but he’s got 20-15 upside and a solid enough bat to move the needle on his trading cards in the next couple of years.

4 years ago 0 comments

MLB Daily Fantasy Sports

9/26 DFS Hitting Picks and Stacks: Indians Can’t Cease Fire

jason mezrahi 6 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

The main slate for 9/26 DFS is just a simple, five-game assembly of MLB DFS matchups featuring some playoff implications and some sneaky stacks! Let’s find the best one-off plays and a couple quality stacks to get you on the road to cash!

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9/26 DFS Hitting Stacks ofthe Day

Cleveland Indians at DylanCease

With Jose Ramirez back, the Indians have another titanic bat in their lineup as they try to sneak into the playoffs via the Wild Card. Eliminated from securing their fourth straight AL Central title with Wednesday’s loss (coupled with a victory by the Minnesota Twins), the Indians have a Thursday night matchup that bodes well for the bats facing a hittable Dylan Cease (5.79 ERA). Expect Francisco Lindor to erase that poor showing last night and get some exposure to the 2-5 bats, along with Franmil Reyes and a dirt-cheap Mike Freeman ($3,200 DK, $2,500 FD) at the bottom of the order.

Oakland Athletics atSeattle Mariners

We’ve come to expect a lot from the A’s as September winds down, and this is a prime opportunity for the bats to come alive and pile on some runs on this 9/26 DFS slate. Mark Canha left the game early last night and Khris Davis is battling a stomach bug, but there are plenty of bats to go to in their stead, and while Felix Hernandez is a historically solid pitcher, he’s nearing the end of his career (6.51 ERA this season) and just isn’t the same old King Felix. The A’s also hit well on the road, with a .329 wOBA as a team. I like Matt Olson, Matt Chapman and Marcus Semien.

Houston Astros at JaimeBarria

The Astros plan on sitting Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa and George Springer, but that just means you can grab some value at the top of their lineup with Kyle Tucker and mix in some “next man up” types who’ve performed well in limited duty this season. They’re not my favorite stack for 9/26 DFS, but they’re certainly viable and a little cheaper to fit in without all the regulars.

9/26 DFS Hitting Stacks toConsider

Chicago Cubs at Joe Musgrove – The Cubs face ahittable pitcher who can hand out free passes and get lit up as easily as hecan rack up the Ks.

New York Mets vs. Jordan Yamamoto – Yamamoto isn’t a bad young pitcher, but he struggles with RHBs and the Mets have a bunch of really good ones.

9/26 DFS HittingCatcher

Wilson Ramos, NYM vs. MIA

DK ($3,600) FD ($2600)

Unfortunately, the pickings are slim at catcher today, so I’ll be looking to Wilson Ramos and his power upside. The Mets regular catcher is slashing .286/.350/.415 this season and Yamamoto has trouble with right-handed bats (.322wOBA vs. RHBs, .250 wOBA vs. LHBs). Just make sure he’s in the lineup before you lock him in.

9/26 DFS Hitting FirstBaseman

Matt Olson, OAK at SEA

DK (4,600) FD ($3,700)

My affinity for Matt Olson is well-known among my peers, and he’s deliveredfor me time and again in GPPs. This matchup is an interesting one, because Olsonhas a .293 ISO and 150 wRC+ against righties. Olson, who’s been hitting forpower this month with a .345 ISO, will likely face a couple of RHPs and has agood chance at going deep in this game.

9/26 DFS Hitting SecondBaseman

Aledmys Diaz, HOU at LAA

DK($4,100) FD ($2,900)

With some Astros sitting, Diaz probably gets another start tonight and is carrying a decent slash line (.271/.349/.457) into the 9/26 contest. He has a 122 wRC+ against RHPs this season, is fairly priced on DK and is unbelievably cheap on FD. It looks like I may give him a shot in about half my lineups this evening.

9/26 DFS Hitting ThirdBaseman

Matt Chapman, OAK at SEA

(DK $4,100) FD ($3,600)

Mr. Chapman homered last night, is very affordable on both sites, and is slightly better against RHPs (124 wRC+ vs. RHPs, 122 wRC+ vs. LHPs). While he had a relatively quiet September, I like the matchup for Chapman against King Felix here here — and there are not many 3B who stick out in this slate other than him, Alex Bregman (who’s available at SS on DK), and Yoan Moncada.

9/26 DFSHitting Shortstop

Alex Bregman, HOU at LAA

DK ($2,600) FD ($2,000)

Some of the veteran Astros players will get spelled tonight, but Bregman is slated to stay in the lineup and is red hot at the plate (3-4, two 2B, RBI, R last night). He sports a robust 168 wRC+ and is slashing .298/.421/.595 triple-slash line with 119 runs scored, 40 homers, 110 RBI and five steals this season. The hard-hitting Bregman is a fine place to anchor your SS slot.

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9/26 DFS HittingOutfielders

Kyle Tucker, HOU at LAA

DK($4,800) FD ($2,900)

Tucker draws the leadoff spot for 9/26 DFS a night after launching a solo homer against the Mariners. With Jose Altuve getting the day off, he takes over a prime spot in the Astros lineup and has done ell with his chances so far: The 22-year-old rookie outfielder is hitting .304/.339/.571 with 11 runs scored, three HRs, 10 RBI and five SB in 59 plate appearances this season. The price on DK is fair, but on FD he’s just way too cheap.

Brandon Nimmo, NYM vs. MIA

DK ($3,900) FD ($2,900)

I love Nimmo in the leadoff spot today for the Mets, who don’t havea lot to play for but still have an exciting group of young hitters. Nimmo hasa 133 wRC+ against RHPs in his career and will have plenty of run scoringopportunities here. He also has a 16.4 BB% facing RHPs in his career and a 19.7BB% this season against righties – a nice patience complement to his burgeoningpower.

Kyle Schwarber, CHC at PIT

DK ($3,800) FD ($2,700)

While he’s not much of a contact/average hitter, Schwarber has been heating up at the plate (2-4 last night with a pair of singles on Wednesday) just in time for his team to be eliminated from the playoffs. Schwarber is hitting .248/.337/.527 with 37 homers, 91 RBI and 80 runs scored in 152 games overall in 2019, and he’s got a great matchup vs. RHP Joe Musgrove.

9/26 DFS Additional StackOptions:

C: Wilson Contreras ($4,700 DK, $3,000 FD), Sean Murphy ($4,000DK, $2,900 FD)

1B: Anthony Rizzo ($4,900 DK, $3,900 FD), Pete Alonso ($5,000 DK,$4,000 FD)

2B: Ian Happ ($4,000 DK, $2,600 FD), Yolmer Sanchez ($2,700 DK) ($2,300FD)

3B: Yoan Moncada ($4,800 DK, $3,500 FD), David Fletcher ($3,900DK, $2,800 FD)

SS: Francisco Lindor ($4,600 DK, $4,200 FD), Jack Mayfield ($2,600 DK, $2,000 FD)

OF: Yordan Alvarez ($5,400 DK, $4,400 FD), Nick Castellanos ($4,600DK, $3,800 FD), Michael Brantley ($4,000 DK, $3,500 FD), Oscar Mercado ($4,900DK, $3,400 FD), Michael Conforto ($4,600 DK, $3,500 FD), Robbie Grossman, ($3,500DK, $2,400 FD),

6 years ago 0 comments

MLB Daily Fantasy Sports

9/25 DFS Hitting Picks & Stacks: Farewell, Wednesday

6 years ago

written by

The 9/25 DFS Hitting Picks is the final Wednesday edition with a main slate filled with strong offensive matchups. Load up here, follow the rest of the WDS crew and count your long green.

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9/25 DFS Hitting Picks — Catcher

Yan Gomes, WAS at PHI

DK ($3,700), FD ($2,600)

Phillies starter Drew Smyly has been owned by Gomes: in 14 at-bats against the Nats’ backstop, Smyly has allowed six hits, including a pair of homers. It also helps that Gomes has homered in each of the past two games and has a .913 OPS during an unsung September that has seen Gomes hit half of his 12 homers this season. Oh: Smyly comes in with a 2.59 HR/9 rate, so there’s that.

9/25 DFS Hitting Picks — First Baseman

Ryan O’Hearn, KC vs. ATL

DK ($3,200), FD ($2,300)

Consider this a punt pick with upside. With the Braves pushing Mike Soroka to Sunday’s regular season finale, O’Hearn will face swingman Josh Tomlin. O’Hearn has homered four times this month and sports a .545 slugging percentage. He also has a 41.7% hard contact rate and has quietly raised his walk rate to 10.8%. Certainly, there are better options available, but if you’re looking for cheap power, then O’Hearn’s a good place to start.

9/25 DFS Hitting Picks — Second Baseman

Garrett Hampson, COL at SF

DK ($3,800), FD ($2,800)

Whoa…where did the pop come from? Hampson has homered four times over the past week and has five dingers in a .371/.435/.677 month of swinging. He homered twice in Tuesday’s win at the Giants and is on a run in which Hampson has scored at least once in nine of his last 10 games. His batting average says .253, but Hampson’s September run has boosted his BABIP to .326. Hampson’s fly ball rate of 38.7% has paid off well this month, so why not jump in the fun before it’s too late?

9/25 DFS Hitting Picks — Third Baseman

Jose Ramirez, CLE at CWS

DK ($5,000), FD ($3,600)

In perhaps the biggest surprise since John Cena showed up unexpectedly in the 2008 Royal Rumble, Ramirez made a loud return to the lineup on Tuesday with a pair of homers and seven RBI. Remember when it was thought he’d be lost for the season? Ah, modern medicine. Ramirez had an August OPS of 1.077 before his hand injury and while a repeat of Tuesday is too much in asking, White Sox starter Ross Detwiler does have a 2.73 HR/9 rate. Just pointing it out…

9/25 DFS Hitting Picks — Shortstop

Trea Turner, WAS vs. PHI

DK ($5,400), FD ($4,400)

Don’t count on Turner to ease up now that the Nationals have clinched a playoff spot. Fourteen of Turner’s 31 hits this month have been for extra bases (nine doubles, five homers), which have been the foundation of his .908 September OPS. Turner’s 7.8% walk rate is modest, but he’s sporting a .347 BABIP while pushing his hard contact rate above average at 37.8%.

9/25 DFS Hitting Picks — Outfielder

Yasiel Puig, CLE at CWS

DK ($4,500), FD ($3,200)

Puig has yet to homer this month, but has still put on a master class as to why most pundits have been enamored with his skills. Along with driving in 11 runs, Puig has gone .392/.471/.500 this month while adding 14 runs scored. His fly ball rate of 40.4% is a career best, yet Puig is also spraying line drives at a 21.2% clip. He’s also hitting to all fields with consistency and also gets to feast on Ross Detwiler.

9/25 DFS Hitting Picks — Outfielder

Austin Hays, BAL at TOR

DK ($4,300), FD ($3,000)

Over the past two weeks, Hays has teamed with Trey Mancini to give the O’s a potent duo. He’s batted .320/.382/.640 with four homers and 12 RBI in that span. Hays has also struck out just 14.8% of the time and has caused damage despite a 28% hard contact rate. Even with the small sample size of 55 at-bats, Hays’ .291 Isolated Power will carry well this evening at hitter-friendly Rodgers Centre.

9/25 DFS Hitting Picks — Outfielder

Aaron Judge, NYY at TB

DK ($4,900), FD ($4,500)

Judge’s bat appears ready for an October run. He’s gone .289/.438/.737 with five homers, seven RBI and 13 runs scored. He’s struggled against the Rays this season (.194 batting average), but let’s throw that out the window. Judge has pushed his Isolated Power to .260, which is helped by the fact his hard contact rate is a very, very loud 53.4%. That rate does more than knock down stop signs.

9/25 DFS Hitting Stacks

9/25 Hitting Stack of the Day: Cleveland Indians: Puig and Ramirez is a great pairing. I’d also consider Roberto Perez ($2800 FD) and Franmil Reyes ($3100 FD) as good bargains to add, yet would consider an all-in by going with Francisco Lindor ($5300 DK).

9/25 Hitting Stack Runner-Up: Houston Astros: Mariners starter Yusei Kikuchi has been hammered for 12 runs (10 earned) and 20 hits over 14 innings of work against Houston. I’d build with Alex Bregman ($5200 DK) or Yordan Alvarez ($5500 DK). Aledmys Diaz ($4100 DK) and Abraham Toro ($3600 DK) are value plays if they’re in the lineup.

9/25 Hitting Stack to Consider: Washington Nationals: You can go beyond Gomes and Turner. Howie Kendrick ($2700 FD) and Anthony Rendon ($4200) make for good additions if going all-in.

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