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Cincinnati Reds

DFS Hitting Stacks for 6/12: Let Loose on Lynn

Wes Anderson 6 years ago

written by Wes Anderson

Chicago Cubs

The ColoradoRockies’ Antonio Senzatela is struggling this season with a slate high 5.43SIERA. The Rockies’ right-hander is producing just a 16.29% whiff rate and willbe pitching in hitter-friendly Coors Field tonight. Senzatela has particularlystruggled with lefties this season with a .416 wOBA and a 1.93 HR/9 allowed tothem.

So, start your Cubs stack with Anthony Rizzo (FanDuel: $4,700, DraftKings: $5,600). The power hitting left-handed first baseman has a .301 ISO and a .418 wOBA versus righties this season. But also consider that Senzatela is primarily a fastball pitcher as he has thrown that pitch on 64.6% of the time. That also plays into Rizzo’s strong suit. The first baseman has a .315 ISO this season against the fastball.

Otherleft-handed bats to consider are: Kyle Schwarber (FanDuel: $3,900, DraftKings:$5,000) and Carlos Gonzalez (FanDuel: $3,300, DraftKings: $3,300). Both outfieldershave ISOs greater than .220 against righties this season.

Of course, you can pick from some of the right-handed sticks as well as Kris Bryant (FanDuel: $4,500, DraftKings: $5,500), Javy Baez (FanDuel: $4,300, DraftKings: $5,500) and Willson Contreras (FanDuel: $3,900, DraftKings: $5,200) are always in play.

The Cubs will likely be the chalk on Wednesday but for good reasons. Load up on Chicago bats.

Cleveland Indians

The Cincinnati Reds’ Anthony DeSclafani is a pitcher you definitely want to stack against whenever he takes the bump. The veteran right-hander is allowing a 43.2% flyball rate that has resulted in 2.12 HR/9 so far in 2019. DeSclafani has really struggled with left-handed batters. The Reds’ starter is allowing a .414 wOBA, a 44.8% hard contact rate and 2.93 HR/9 to the lefty sticks this season.

Your Cleveland build will start with Carlos Santana (FanDuel: $3,500, DraftKings: $4,600) and Francisco Lindor (FanDuel: $3,900, DraftKings: $5,200). Both of these lefty sticks have ISOs over .245 against right-handed pitching this season.

Over theirlast seven the Cleveland offense has a .313 ISO and a .343 wOBA. So feel freeto make this a three or four man stack and include the likes of Jose Ramirez (FanDuel:$3,100, DraftKings: $3,500) and Jake Bauers (FanDuel: $2,600, DraftKings: $3,200).

Boston Red Sox

Texas’ Lance Lynn has a respectable 4.39 ERA this season but is getting hit hard. Most notably, he is allowing a 42.1% hard contact rate to RHBs

The Boston build, of course, will need to include Mookie Betts (FanDuel: $4,200, DraftKings: $4,400). The Red Sox outfielder homered on Tuesday and has a .222 ISO against right-handed pitching in 2019. Also keep in mind that the Rangers’ Lynn is throwing his fastball almost 49% of the time. This is a bonus for Betts, as he has a .256 ISO against such pitch this season.

Also consider Xander Bogaerts (FanDuel: $4,000, DraftKings: $4,300), as he has a .363 wOBA versus righties. J.D. Martinez (FanDuel: $4,000, DraftKings: $4,500) owns a .324 batting average against fastballs this season, so he clearly needs to be in your player pool as well. Rafael Devers (FanDuel: $3,800, DraftKings: $4,100) also has killed the fastball this season, with a .256 ISO. You can use Andrew Benintendi (FanDuel: $3,600, DraftKings: $4,000) as well.

The Red Sox should provide plenty of hard contact againstLynn.

Other Stacks to Consider: Colorado Rockies, Minnesota Twins.

Value Stacks: Baltimore Orioles (FanDuel), Toronto Blue Jays (FanDuel), San Diego Padres (FanDuel), Cincinnati Reds (FanDuel/DraftKings).

6 years ago 0 comments

MLB

DFS Hitting Stacks for 5/29: Bright Reds

Marshall Rosen 6 years ago

written by Marshall Rosen

Here are thetop teams to stack for MLB’s May 29th action:

EARLY SLATE

Cincinnati Reds

The Pirates’ Steven Brault is a guy we want to attack when he takes the bump for Pittsburgh. The left-handed pitcher has a robust 7.11 ERA. And his other numbers for this season aren’t any better. Brault has a 5.46 SIERA and a 5.85 xFIP. The Pittsburgh starter also is getting hit hard with a 44.9% hard contact rate, making the Reds look like a juicy stacking option for Thursday.

The building blocks for this stack will be Eugenio Suarez (FanDuel: $3,900 DraftKings: $4,900) and Nick Senzel (FanDuel: $3,800 DraftKings: $4,900). Both of these right-handed bats have at least a .300 ISO against lefties in 2019. And while he doesn’t have great numbers against southpaws this season, how do you not chase yesterday’s three home run performance by Derek Dietrich (FanDuel: $2,900 DraftKings: $4,900)?

Other Reds to look at it include: Kyle Farmer (FanDuel: $2,100 DraftKings: $3,800) and Yasiel Puig (FanDuel: $3,200 DraftKings: $4,200). Both Cincinnati bats have over .200 ISOs against lefties in 2019.

Seattle Mariners

The Rangers’ Drew Smyly is struggling this season with a 6.15 ERA and is allowing 2.14 HR/9. With seven Mariners owning an ISO of over .200 against southpaws in 2019, the Texas starter’s struggles should continue in this one.

These seven players should be the emphasis of your stack: Jay Bruce (FanDuel: $3,100 DraftKings: $4,300), Domingo Santana (FanDuel: $3,700 DraftKings: $4,500), Daniel Vogelbach (FanDuel: $3,700 DraftKings: $5,300), Tim Beckham (FanDuel: $3,000 DraftKings: $3,800), Mitch Haniger (FanDuel: $3,900 DraftKings: $4,400), Omar Narvaez (FanDuel: $2,900 DraftKings: $4,200) and Edwin Encarnacion (FanDuel: $3,500 DraftKings: $4,500).

Los Angeles Angels

Since returning to the big leagues, the Athletics’ Daniel Mengden has been hit really hard by opposing offenses. In fact, he has allowed a 50% hard contact rate. The hard contact has resulted in him having a 6.07 SIERA and a 6.11 xFIP. The Angels’ offense should be able to hit some balls awfully hard against the young Oakland right-hander here and make for a great value play to combine with Cincinnati or Seattle.

Mike Trout (FanDuel:$4,700 DraftKings: $5,500), Kole Calhoun (FanDuel: $3,500 DraftKings: $4,100),Albert Pujols (FanDuel: $3,000 DraftKings: $3,500), Shohei Ohtani (FanDuel: $3,300DraftKings: $3,500) and Tommy La Stella (FanDuel: $3,100 DraftKings: $3,900)all have produced at least a 45% hard contact rate against righties in 2019.

MAIN SLATE

Arizona Diamondbacks

Winning DFS lineups for today’s slate will likely be loaded with Arizona Diamondbacks. The Rockies will be running Jeff Hoffman out to the bump. The right-handed starter has not fared well at Coors Field in his career. Hoffman has allowed a .303/.376/.541 slash line in 86.1 innings pitched in Colorado. Hoffman also has a 5.20 xFIP and 5.7% K-BB% in those contests. Look for the Diamondbacks to take advantage of this matchup in a big way tonight.

The Diamondbacks’ build must start with Eduardo Escobar (FanDuel: $4,600 DraftKings: $5,700). The third baseman is red hot. He has scored double-digit fantasy points per game for a week now. His hot streak should continue on Wednesday. Escobar has crushed against righties this season. He owns a .250 ISO and a .351 wOBA against them. You can build around Escobar with a combination of Adam Jones (FanDuel: $4,000 DraftKings: $5,300) and Ketel Marte (FanDuel: $4,400 DraftKings: $5,500) as well. Each of these Diamondbacks’ hitters have .200-plus ISOs against right-handed pitching in 2019.

Colorado Rockies

The Colorado Rockies have had Robbie Ray’s number throughout his career. In 106 at-bats against the current Colorado roster, the Arizona starter has allowed a .302/.395/.586 slash line with a .982 OPS. Of the 32 hits Ray has allowed to the current Rockies’ hitters, 16 of them have been for extra bases. And seven of those have left the yard. The success against Ray should continue tonight as the Rockies’ offense has a.209 ISO versus lefties in 2019.

When building your Rockies’ stack, of course you will want to start the construction with Nolan Arenado (FanDuel: $4,900 DraftKings: $5,600). The infielder has crushed lefties this season. He has a .466 ISO and a .516 wOBA versus them. Also, he has killed Ray in the past. Arenado has a 1.289 career OPS against the Diamondbacks’ pitcher.

You also need to consider Ian Desmond (FanDuel: $3,500DraftKings: $3,900). The outfielder has an ISO of .321 versus lefties in 2019.He also has a 1.289 career OPS versus Ray. Chris Iannetta (FanDuel: $3,300DraftKings: $3,700), Ryan McMahon (FanDuel: $3,200 DraftKings: $4,100), DanielMurphy (FanDuel: $3,600 DraftKings: $4,100), Raimel Tapia (FanDuel: $3,200DraftKings: $4,100) and even Mark Reynolds (FanDuel: $3,000 DraftKings: $3,500)should all be considered. Each of those Rockies’ hitters have .200-plus ISOsagainst left-handed pitching in 2019.

Kansas City Royals

The ChicagoWhite Sox’s Reynaldo Lopez has struggled this season. The Right-hander has a5.09 SIERA and a 5.81 xFIP. Lopez has also allowed a 53.6% flyball rate and a40.9% hard contact rate. In addition to his 2019 struggles, Lopez has also hada difficult time with the Royals in his career. Against the current Royals’roster, the Chicago starter has allowed a .301 batting average and a .382 on-basepercentage.

Hunter Dozier(FanDuel: $3,800 DraftKings: $5,100) and Jorge Soler (FanDuel: $3,100DraftKings: $4,400) are great building blocks to a Royals’ stack. Both KansasCity hitter have ISO’s of at least .275 against right-handed pitcher but theyalso have .900-plus OPS against flyball pitchers.

Alex Gordon (FanDuel:$3,400 DraftKings: $4,800) and Adalberto Mondesi (FanDuel: $3,800 DraftKings: $5,500)also have produced at least a .200 ISO against righties in 2019. While WhitMerrifield (FanDuel: $3,900 DraftKings: $5,200) has a .364 wOBA and a 127 wRC+against right-handed pitching this season.

Philadelphia Phillies

The St.Louis Cardinals will be starting Genesis Cabrera. The left-handed pitcher has a6.35 ERA in Triple-A this season. In 39.2 innings pitched for the Memphis Cardinals,Cabrera has allowed 43 hits and 19 walks that have led to 28 earned runs. ThePhillies are likely going to provide a rude welcome the Cardinals’ starter.

Jean Segura (FanDuel:$3,900 DraftKings: $4,800), J.T. Realmuto (FanDuel: $3,400 DraftKings: $4,600),Scott Kingery (FanDuel: $2,800 DraftKings: $4,100), Rhys Hoskins (FanDuel: $4,400DraftKings: $4,900) and Bryce Harper (FanDuel: $4,300 DraftKings: $4,500) allwill be part of the welcoming party. Each of these players have recorded atleast a .200 ISO versus lefties in 2019.

Baltimore Orioles

The Tigers’Ryan Carpenter has had a rough go to the start of his 2019 campaign. He isallowing 3.21 HR/9 while maintaining a 9.00 ERA. While we usually stack againstthe Orioles, today you want to stack with the Orioles.

This stackwill of course start with Trey Mancini (FanDuel: $3,800 DraftKings: $5,000).While he is not a cheap part of the stack, he is an owner of a .283 ISO and a.430 wOBA versus lefties this season.

The other bat to consider starting the Baltimore stack with is Pedro Severino (FanDuel: $2,800 DraftKings: $3,900). Severino has a .300-plus ISOs against lefties this season.

Good luckand happy stacking!

6 years ago 0 comments

MLB

Bounceback Candidates

Jason Mezrahi 6 years ago

written by Jason Mezrahi

Bounceback CandidatesClayton Kershaw, LAD, (SP): What if I told you that the best pitcher of our generation is being drafted around pick 100 in most season-long drafts? The main reason for that is because Kershaw is dealing with a shoulder issue but he appears to be progressing well in his rehab. In fact, Kershaw is expected to only miss the first two weeks of the year, as he’s already progressed to throwing to live hitters. Taking Kershaw is certainly risky but getting him this cheap takes out most of that risk. The upside is simply impossible to overlook, as Kershaw has finished as the top pitcher in baseball for about half of his career. That’s evident in his 2.39 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 9.77 K/9 career rates. Those are straight ridiculous numbers and it seems very likely that people are over-reacting to his injury status. We’re talking about a pitcher who just turned 32-years-old. You’d think this guy is 50-years-old with the way people are reacting to him. His 2.73 ERA and 1.04 WHIP from last season indicate he’s not far off from the ace we’ve become accustomed to and he’s easily one of the best bounce-back candidates out there. Josh Donaldson, ATL (3B) Donaldson is being overlooked in the fantasy industry, as he could return to his MVP form in Atlanta. Not only does he get to hit in this dominant lineup, but Donaldson also gets the fortune of hitting in this little league ballpark. In its inaugural year, SunTrust Park finished seventh in total runs. That’s a small uptick from Rogers Centre but Donaldson gets to hit in a much better lineup. Having Ronald Acuna Jr. and Freddie Freeman around him in the lineup should open up some better pitches, as Donaldson is not far removed from being one of the best hitters in the majors. Prior to an injury-riddled 2018, Donaldson averaged 32.8 home runs and 98.2 RBI across his previous five seasons. This is a guy who stayed pretty healthy in that stretch too, averaging 149 games per season. The weak 2018 is an outlier in an otherwise impressive career, so don’t let that stray you away from one of the most overlooked hitters in the game. Joey Votto, CIN, (1B) Votto’s 12 home runs last year stands out like a sore thumb but he’s one of the easiest bounce-back candidates for this upcoming season. If you take out an injury-riddled 2014 season, Votto averaged 28.3 home runs and 116.4 RBI across his previous seven seasons before last year’s dud. Those are impressive numbers in itself but the fact that he posted a .433 OBP in that span makes him one of the most dangerous at-bats in the majors. The 12 home runs last season are an absolute fluke too, as his 41 percent hard-hit rate and 9.5 percent HR/FB rates are major outliers for his career. Having a career-high hard-hit rate while posting a career-low HR/FB rate shows just how unlucky he was last season, as he should return to his typical 25-30 homers this year. Adding Yasiel Puig and Matt Kemp to an already solid lineup can’t hurt either, as that should help Votto see better pitches, even though he already has the best eyes in the game.Rougned Odor, TEX (2B) Odor was one of the biggest disappointments last season with a .253 AVG, 18 home runs, and 12 steals but one stretch near the end of the year showed just how dominant he can be. Between June 16 and August 11, Odor hit 13 homers and 12 doubles while accruing 31 RBI and nine steals. That came out to a .640 SLG and 1.049 OPS, which was arguably one of the most dominant two-month stretches by any player all season. What’s really encouraging about Odor’s progression is his plate discipline. In fact, Odor nearly doubled his career average by posting an 8.1 percent BB-rate last season while lowering his K-rate below 24 percent. That discipline has carried over big time into spring training, with Odor collecting five walks in 38 spring training at-bats thus far. He’s also 14-of-38 at the plate while accumulating three doubles and four home runs en route to a 1.155 OPS. It’s not like he was chopped liver before either, with Odor tallying 63 home runs and 29 steals across 2016 and 2017. Everything here has the arrow pointing up for Odor and he’s one of few 2B who has legit 25 home run-20 steal potential. Jose Quintana, CHC (SP) Many people forget just how studly Quintana was in his days with the White Sox, as he looks primed to have a bounce-back season. In a disappointing 2018 campaign, Quintana posted a 4.03 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. Those numbers really aren’t even that bad but fantasy owners have pretty much given up on him looking at his ADP. This is a guy who averaged a 3.41 ERA and 1.24 WHIP across his first five seasons and that’s the pitcher I expect to see this year. The peripherals show why he struggled last season, as he posted career-highs in BB-rate and HR-rate. That’s a recipe for a boosted ERA and WHIP but his 14.7 percent HR/FB rate and .282 BABIP last season indicates he was slightly unlucky. Those are outlier numbers for his career and a regression to the mean seems like a likely outcome. It’s the price that really makes him attractive though, with Quintana going close to the 200-range in drafts while being priced super cheap in DFS. Some other notable players that I expect to bounce-back include Kris Bryant, Carlos Correa, Daniel Murphy, Cody Bellinger, Yu Darvish and Chris Archer. All of these guys have underlying statistics that show why they struggled last season and they should return closer to their career norms with positive regression headed their way.

6 years ago 0 comments

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DFS Hitting Stacks for 6/12: Let Loose on Lynn

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