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CFB Conference Championship Friday Breakdown

Ivan Herrera
written by Ivan Herrera

Welcome back to another exciting season of CFB! We are starting the conference championship weekend with the Conference USA and PAC12 title games. Both games are rematches of regular-season games.

The purpose of this article is to break down the college football main slates, both on the DFS and betting sites. The article includes my favorite plays at every position as well as honorable mentions. You can also find my favorite bets under my Dragos Best Bets section.

Conference USA: New Mexico State vs. Liberty (-11) (O/U 56.5)

The first game on Friday’s two-game slate is the battle for Conference USA supremacy, featuring 24th-ranked Liberty against New Mexico State. This is a rematch from Week Two of the season, in which Liberty beat NMST 33-17 at home. Liberty will once again have the pleasure of hosting NMST, but this time with much higher stakes.

Favorite Plays:

NMST: Diego Pavia (QB, $6600) is the best play on the NMST side. He has put up consistent numbers every game, including their upset win over Auburn two weeks ago. The only game he struggled in was the first matchup against Liberty, where he had a season low of 13.3 points on DraftKings. He offers rushing upside, which is always good for DFS. This season, he ranks as the QB with the fifth most rushing yards at 806 yards. Liberty gives up 345.5 yards per game, so expect Pavia to have the chance to succeed on both fronts. Jonathan Brady (WR, $4900) is my favorite WR to pair with him, although I do think Pavia can be played solo. Brady has been the best WR for NMST; he leads the team in receptions (33) and yards (518). He is also tied for second on the team for receiving touchdowns with three.

Liberty: Kaidon Salter (QB, $8200) is my favorite of the two QBs in this game. Like his counterpart, Salter has great rushing abilities and ranks 3rd for QB rushing yards with 899. NMST had no answers for Salter in their first matchup, as he threw for 276 yards and ran for another 43. He also managed to score four times in that game, two through the air and the other two on the ground. Unlike NMST, I think you can use a RB from Liberty. Quinton Cooley (RB, $6300) is Liberty’s main back and has rushed for 1251 yards and 13 touchdowns in 12 games. Cooley finished the regular season 11th in rushing yards and T15th in rushing touchdowns. The Aggies have a solid rush defense, but in their first game, Cooley managed to run for 106 yards. With Sibley being questionable, CJ Daniels (WR, $5100) is a much better play. He leads Liberty in receptions, yards, and touchdowns.

Value Plays: Bentley Henshaw (WR, $3400). Star Thomas (RB, $4700)

PAC12: Oregon (-9.5) vs. Washington (O/U 66)

The second game on the slate is the much-anticipated rematch between Oregon and Washington. In their first game at Washington, the Huskies managed to survive a back-and-forth slugfest with a 36-33 victory over the Ducks. This time, Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas will have the pleasure of hosting these two in a neutral-site game in what is a bittersweet final PAC12 title game.

Favorite Plays:

Oregon: Bo Nix (QB, $9500) is the Heisman favorite and the highest priced QB on the slate. Nix comes into the slate ranked first in passing yards (3906) and second in both passing efficiency (189.8) and passing touchdowns (37). The Huskies are the worst-ranked pass defense of the four on the slate. They are ranked 122nd, allowing 265.2 yards and 1.6 touchdowns per game. In his Week Seven game against Washington, Nix had 337 yards, two touchdowns, and ran for 14 yards. The game is going to be a shootout like the first game, so Nix is going to have plenty of opportunities to showcase his skillset. Bucky Irving (RB, $6900) was unstoppable the first time they met, finishing the game with 161 total yards and a touchdown. While Oregon is more of a passing team, Irving has been able to make do with the touches he gets, and against a team that gives up over four yards a carry, he should continue his solid season. The best WR for the Ducks is hard to pick. Troy Franklin ($7300) and Tez Johnson ($6600) have been great over the past three games, as Franklin has 19 receptions and Johnson has 24 receptions in the last three weeks.

Washington: Michael Penix Jr. (QB, $9100) is currently third in Heisman odds and has a huge opportunity to jump Nix and Daniels with a win on Friday. Penix is second in yards, just seven yards behind Nix, and sits fourth in touchdowns (32) and 11th in efficiency (163.3). Like his counterpart Nix in the first meeting, he also threw for over 300 yards but did score two more touchdowns than Nix. While Washington does have great WR options like Oregon, I think there is a clear cut-top guy, and that is Rome Odunze. Odunze (WR, $7400) has the fourth most receiving yards this season with 1326 yards and sits 20th in receptions with 73. He was one of the biggest reasons why Washington is the one coming into this game undefeated, as he finished that game with eight receptions, 128 yards, and two touchdowns. Oregon does have a good pass defense, but they have not been able to stop top-tier talent all year.

Value Plays: Terrance Ferguson (WR, $3600). Jack Westover (WR, $3300) Dillon Johnson (RB, $6000): He is not technically valuable, but he is a solid play at 6K.

Drago’s Best Bets:
  • Washington +9.5
  • Liberty -11
  • Odunze Over 98.5 Receiving Yards
  • Franklin Over 106.5 Receiving Yards

Make sure to check out the CFB live stream every week on the Win Daily YouTube page.

Make sure to hop in our Expert Discord Chat for FREE! Ivan (idrago15) will be there answering questions all day and all night! Follow Ivan on Twitter @idragol15 and be sure to be on the lookout for future articles at https://windailysports.com/ncaa-football-articles/

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CFB Main Slate Breakdown Week Thirteen

Ivan Herrera
written by Ivan Herrera

Welcome back to another exciting season of CFB! Hope you all had a good Thanksgiving if you celebrate or just a wonderful Thursday if you don’t.

The purpose of this article is to break down the college football main slates both on the DFS and betting sites. The article includes my favorite plays at every position as well as honorable mentions. You can also find my favorite bets under my Dragos Best Bets section.

QBs

CorePivotsValue (6.9K and Under)
John Rhys Plumlee (UCF) $8,200Jalen Milroe (BAMA) $9,500Max Johnson (TA&M) $6,500
Jayden Daniels (LSU) $11,000Alan Bowman (OKST) $7,100Devin Leary (UK) $6,200
Michael Penix (UW) $10,400Cameron Ward (WSU) $8,800
Preston Stone (SMU) $8,400Noah Fifita (ARIZ) $7,400
Joe Milton (TENN) $7,500Jack Plummer (UL) $8,500
Kyle McCord (OSU) $8,200

RBs

CorePivotsValue (5K and under)
Ollie Gordon (OKST) $9,000Logan Diggs (LSU) $5,600Michael Wiley (ARIZ) $4,500
RJ Harvey (UCF) $7,200Jawhar Jordan (UL) $7,100Parker Jenkins (UH) $4,700
Jaylen Wright (TENN) $5,200Dillon Johnson (UW) $7,000
Blake Corum (MICH) $8,400Jase McClellan (BAMA) $6,400
Ja’Quinden Jackson (UTAH) $5,300Ray Davis (UK) $7,600

WRs

CorePivotValue (5K and under)
Rome Odunze (UW) $8,500Jalen McMillian (UW) $6,600Isaac Rex (BYU) $3,800
Malik Nabers (LSU) $9,600Tetairoa McMillian (ARIZ) $7,000Jack Westover (UW) $3,800
Jacob Cowing (ARIZ) $6,700Squirrel White (TENN) $5,700Carlos Hernandez (WSU) $3,800
Kobe Hudson (UCF) $5,200Brian Thomas (LSU) $8,000
Marvin Harrison Jr. (OSU) $9,000Ainias Smith (TA&M) $5,500
Brennan Presley (OKST) $5,900Kyle Williams (WSU) $6,400
Jamari Thrash (UL) $7,300Joseph Manjack (UH) $5,900
Games to Target:

Washington vs. Washington State: Both of these teams’ passing games rank inside the top four in CFB, and their defenses are in the bottom 30. The game has the best potential to be the biggest shootout on the slate. The main targets to focus on are the QBs: Penix and Ward. From their pair with a WR, for Penix, the top option is Odunze, but McMillian for $1,900 less is a solid pivot. Then you can also add Westover for great value at $3,800. On the WSU side, Williams is the best option to pair Ward with, but Carlos Hernandez is a great value play as well.

LSU vs. Texas A&M: Daniels is one of the frontrunners for the Heisman for a reason, and he will always be in play for LSU. Nabers is my favorite play to pair him with, but I would not say no to pairing him with Thomas. For TA&M, Johnson is my favorite value QB, and pairing him with Smith only means a 12K salary, which is not much compared to using Daniels or Penix.

UCF vs. Houston: This game has a lot of potential to become a shootout, as neither side has a great defense. You can attack Houston with any facet of UCF’s game. If you want to attack them through the air, then Plumlee and Hudson make a great duo. Meanwhile, Harvey has been a good DFS RB this season and should have no issues taking on Houston’s 91st-ranked rush defense. For Houston, attacking UCF through the air will be hard, but Manjack is the best option for Smith to throw too, and UCF has shown weaknesses in their secondary defense despite being the 41st-ranked pass defense.

Drago’s Best Bets:

  • UCF -14
  • Ohio State ML
  • LSU -12
  • Alabama -13.5
  • Washington vs Washington State O66.5

Make sure to hop in our Expert Discord Chat for FREE! Ivan (idrago15) will be there answering questions all day and all night! Follow Ivan on Twitter @idragol15 and be sure to be on the lookout for future articles at https://windailysports.com/ncaaf/

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CFB Black Friday Slate Breakdown

Ivan Herrera
written by Ivan Herrera

Welcome back to another exciting season of CFB! Hope you all had a good Thanksgiving if you celebrate or just a wonderful Thursday if you don’t.

The purpose of this article is to break down the college football main slates both on the DFS and betting sites. The article includes my favorite plays at every position as well as honorable mentions. You can also find my favorite bets under my Dragos Best Bets section.

QBs

CorePivotsValue
Seth Henigan (MEM) $8,800Chandler Morris (TCU) $7,500EJ Warner (TEMP) $6,500
Dillon Gabriel (OU) $9,300Dequan Finn (TOL) $8,300Cooper Legas (UTST) $6,300
Thomas Castellanos (BC) $6,000Michael Pratt (TUL) $8,200
Frank Harris (UTSA) $8,600

RBs

CorePivotsValue (5K and under)
Mark Fletcher (MIA) $6,700Jacory Croskey-Merritt (UNM) $6,000Darvon Hubbard (TEMP) $4,200
Blake Watson (MEM) $7,300Ashton Jeanty (BSU) $7,500
Emani Bailey (TCU) $6,900Sieh Bangura (OHIO) $$6,500
Cody Schrader (MIZZ) $7,200

WRs

CorePivotValue (5K and under)
Terrell Vaughn (UTST) $6,800Xavier Restrepo (MIA) $6,600David Martin-Robinson (TEMP) $4,500
Joshua Cephus (UTSA) $6,500Demeer Blankumsee (MEM) $6,200Lewis Bond (BC) $4,000
Nic Anderson (OU) $5,300Jalen Royals (UTST) $6,400Devin Maddox (TOL) $3,800
Roc Taylor (MEM) $6,300Sam Wiglusz (OHIO) 5,800
Jerjuan Newton (TOL) $7,100Chris Brazzell II (TUL) $5,900
Synopsis

There are many QBs in great situations for the Black Friday slate. Henigan has the best matchup against Temple of everyone on the slate. Temple ranks in the bottom 30 against the pass and the run. Henigan’s dual-threat game should be able to find space both through the air and on the ground. Gabriel and Harris also go against defenses that haven’t had much success stopping QBs this season. The QB in my “core” that doesn’t have the best matchup in the passing game but I think is still in a good spot is Castellanos. Castellanos hasn’t been the best passing QB, but he has been great using his legs. Miami, while they have been able to stop QBs from having big days, has struggled to contain running QBs.

The RBs on the slate are not in amazing matchups on Friday. Only four rush defenses are ranked in the bottom 50 in CFB. The two who are in the best spots are Fletcher and Watson, who both go up against rush defenses that are in the bottom five. Fletcher is coming off his best game of the season against Louisville, where he had 126 yards and two touchdowns on the ground. BC, who will be his opponent on Friday, will allow 189.4 yards and 2.5 touchdowns on the ground per game. Fletcher is my most-used RB on the slate. My second favorite is Watson, who, outside of his game against Tulane, has run great against everyone. He has scored a touchdown in seven of ten games this season. This Friday, he goes to Temple, who have given up 23 touchdowns on the ground this season, which is the third highest on the slate, only behind BC and UTST.

Drago’s Best Bets:

  • Toledo -10.5
  • Tulane -3.5
  • Missouri -8.5
  • TCU vs Oklahoma O63.5
  • Iowa vs Nebraska U25.5

Make sure to hop in our Expert Discord Chat for FREE! Ivan (idrago15) will be there answering questions all day and all night! Follow Ivan on Twitter @idragol15 and be sure to be on the lookout for future articles at https://windailysports.com/ncaaf/

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CFB Main Slate Breakdown for Week Twelve

Ivan Herrera
written by Ivan Herrera

Welcome back to another exciting season of CFB! We are starting Week 12 action on Saturday with a big 12-game slate. We are starting to enter conference matchups, which always make for great environments.

The purpose of this article is to break down the college football main slates, both on the DFS and betting sites. The article includes my favorite plays at every position as well as honorable mentions. You can also find my favorite bets under my Dragos Best Bets section.

The QBs:

Ethan Garbers (UCLA): $6,400

I love that DraftKings is giving us a discount on UCLA players, considering they are facing a team that gives up 446.5 yards and 4.5 touchdowns per game. 59% of the yards and 56% of the touchdowns they allow per game come from the passing game. Garbers has been in a QB battle all season with transfer Schlee and freshman Moore, but all signs point to Garbers being the one who will lead the Bruins for the remainder of the season. In two of his last three games, Garber has gone for over 20 points on DraftKings, and in his lone under-20 performance, he exited the game with an injury. USC is the perfect get-well spot for any QB, as they have given up strong DFS performances to nearly every opposing QB.

Who to pair him with: Logan Loya. J.Michael Sturdivant.

Joey Aguilar (APPST): $7,500

Aguilar is one of my favorite QBs on the slate at 7.5K or below. Aguilar has been a great DFS QB, averaging 24.6 points on DraftKings, including 28 points in the past three weeks. This week he should keep up his great run as he faces a James Madison side that is ranked 116th against the pass, allowing 263.3 yards per game. JMU has been tough to score passing touchdowns on despite allowing all those yards, but Aguilar comes in averaging 2.6 passing touchdowns.

Who to pair him with: Christian Horn. Kaedin Robinson.

Carson Beck (UGA): $9,000

Beck has had a solid year, replacing Bennett as the Bulldogs starting QB. In six of his 10 starts, he has managed to have 20 or more points on DraftKings, including three games over 25. He gets to take on a Tennessee pass defense that has been in the middle of the pack all season. The Vols allow 227.5 yards and under a touchdown pass per game. But Beck will have his number one target back in this game, as Bowers will be healthier than he was last game, where he logged three catches for 24 yards and a touchdown after missing three games due to injury. Beck is a great pivot off of the $9500+ QBs who will need to go crazy to hit value.

Who to pair him with: Brock Bowers. Ladd McConkey.

Honorable Mentions: Bo Nix (ORE). Dillon Gabriel (OU). Caleb Wiliams (USC). Drake Maye (UNC). Jordan McCloud (JMU). Donovan Smith (UH). Sam Hartman (ND).

Value QBs: NONE BELOW GARBERS

The RBs:

Ollie Gordon II (OKST): $8,800

The nation’s leading rusher was finally stopped this past week by a mixture of heavy rain and UCF stacking the box. Gordon had 12 carries for 25 yards, which snapped his six-game streak of over 100 rushing yards. This weekend, he gets a slightly more difficult opponent in Houston, but one that is still vulnerable against the run. The Cougars have allowed over 150 yards on the ground to each of their last six opponents and seven of their last eight. Look for Gordon to bounce back and regain his stats that had him as the favorite for the best RB in CFB award.

Kaelon Black (JMU): $5,500

I talked about Black’s opponent’s QB, Aguilar, but it’s time to talk about one of the players that will keep Aguilar throwing. Black is the lead back at JMU and is getting an extremely favorable matchup against App State and their 9th worst rush defense. Over the past two weeks, Black has been dealing with an injury, so he has had close to no production, but he should be a lot healthier for the game against App State. If he gets close to the 14 carries he averaged prior to the injury, then he should still be able to put up solid numbers against App State. Black is also involved in the passing game, averaging 2.3 receptions for 21.4 yards per game.

Carson Steele (UCLA): $6,400

While Gordon is the best RB on the slate, the one in the best situation is Carson Steele. Steele and the Bruins take on their in-city rivals, USC, in the Crosstown Showdown. Steele comes into the rivalry game averaging 74.5 yards and.6 touchdowns per game. But he should improve on his stats against one of the nation’s worst rush defenses. The Trojans allow 182.3 yards and two touchdowns per game. USC has not been able to stop any RB; the only times a RB didn’t go off on them were the Nevada and Stanford games, in which USC had huge leads and their opponents needed to abandon the run. That should not be an issue this week, as UCLA will keep this game competitive for all 60 minutes.

Honorable Mentions: Blake Corum (MICH). Bucky Irving (ORE). Audric Estime (ND). Daijun Edwards (UGA). Omarion Hampton (UNC). Jawhar Jordan (UL). Tawee Walker (OU). Cam Skattebo (ASU).

Value RBs (5K and under): Michael Wiley (ARIZ). Parker Jenkins (UH).

The WRs:

Samuel Brown (UH): $5,800

Brown gets a great matchup against a bad Cowboys pass defense. Oklahoma State’s pass defense is in the bottom 20 against the pass and gives up the second-most passing touchdowns on the slate. Brown comes into this game tied for 30th in targets (86) this season and ranks 28th in targets per game at 8.6. Brown will be targeted often in a game that will be a shootout, as this game comes in tied for the second highest total on the slate. We saw last week that OKST couldn’t stop the passing game as Plumlee and his WRs did whatever they wanted against this secondary.

Tez Johnson (ORE): $7,300

While I could have easily included Oregon’s top star, Troy Franklin, instead I am taking the discount and taking their second WR. Both WRs have played a big role in making QB Bo Nix a Heisman candidate. They both have over 50 receptions and 65 targets. The $1,400 discount you get coming down from Franklin to Tez isn’t much but can be helpful in lineup construction. The reason why I am high on Johnson is that, despite being the WR, he only averages 1.4 fewer targets per game than Franklin and has a 5% catch rate on targets. Johnson catches 77% of his targets, while Franklin catches 72% of his targets. So while Franklin has more targets over the season, Johnson is right next to him because he is able to haul in more passes thrown his way.

Tez Walker (UNC): $8,100

The second Tez on this list, Walker, has been exactly what UNC needed when he transferred over to the TarHeels. Since getting approval from the NCAA to play for UNC, Walker has had two games with at least 35 points and another one with over 25. Walker’s return to the field couldn’t have come at a better time for UNC, as they are fighting to secure a spot in the ACC title game. This game is a battle of the top 10: UNC’s number 8 passing offense against Clemson’s number 7 pass defense. So while I expect a tough game, Maye will need to lean on his best WR. The total in this game is also one of the highest, so the oddsmakers are expecting Walker to have a strong game.

Honorable Mentions: Drake Stoops (OU). Rashad Owens (OKST). Reggie Brown (JMU). Elijah Badger (ASU). Troy Franklin (ORE). Jaolby George (MIA).

Value Plays (4.9K and under): Lake McRee (USC). Corey Dyches (UMD). Colston Loveland (MICH). Terrance Ferguson (ORE).

Drago’s Best Bets:

  • USC vs UCLA Over 65.5
  • Georgia -10
  • Louisville ML
  • Oklahoma State -6.5
  • AppState vs JMU Over 56

Make sure to check out the CFB live stream every week on the Win Daily YouTube page.

Make sure to hop in our Expert Discord Chat for FREE! Ivan (idrago15) will be there answering questions all day and all night! Follow Ivan on Twitter @idragol15 and be sure to be on the lookout for future articles at https://windailysports.com/ncaa-football-articles/

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CFB Main Slate Breakdown for Week Eleven

Ivan Herrera
written by Ivan Herrera

Welcome back to another exciting season of CFB! We are starting Week 11 action on Saturday with a big 12-game slate. We are starting to enter conference matchups, which always make for great environments.

The purpose of this article is to break down the college football main slates, both on the DFS and betting sites. The article includes my favorite plays at every position as well as honorable mentions. You can also find my favorite bets under my Dragos Best Bets section.

The QBs:

Noah Fifita (ARIZ): $6,000

We are starting off with the value play of the day. There is no reason Fifita should be 6K against CFB’s third-worst passing defense. The freshman has been great in his five starts since starter de Laura went down. He has thrown for at least 300 yards in three of his five starts. The Buff’s pass defense is allowing 300.7 yards per game through the air this season. Fifita has faced three bottom 30 pass defenses this season and has combined for 877 yards, eight touchdowns, and two interceptions. He has averaged 25.2 points on DraftKings in those three games as well. Colorado can’t stop anyone at this point, so Fifita is going to be in a lot of my lineups. Arizona has Fifita as their QB1 going into this game, with the now-recovered de Laura as their QB2. If de Laura gets the start, then pivot $100 down to him.

Who to pair him with: Jacob Cowing, Tetairoa McMillan

John Rhys Plumlee (UCF): $7,500

Plumlee is in a great spot this weekend and should be the best game for DFS purposes. The Big 12 has been known for years as the conference with no defense, and the OKST/UCF matchup will prove that true. The Cowboys pass and rush defense and UCF’s rush defense all rank in the bottom 35 of CFB. That’s where running QB Plumlee comes in. The Cowboys are 108th against the pass and 95th against the run. Plumlee, in two games against the bottom 35 defenses, has thrown for a combined 520 yards and rushed for 69 for a total of 589 yards. The game has the highest total on the slate and should be a fun, fast-paced game for DFS.

Who to pair him with: Javon Baker, Xavier Townsend, Kobe Hudson

Michael Pratt (TUL): $8,200

Pratt was one of my favorite QBs last season, but I have not had the chance to really use him this season. But that changes this weekend as Pratt takes on Tulsa and their 127th-ranked pass defense. Tulsa’s pass defense is the second worst on the slate, only behind Colorado, whom I have already mentioned attacking above. Pratt has been consistent in DFS, having a season low of 15.8, which was last week in an ugly game against ECU. Prior to that, he had five games with at least 21.3 points. Tulsa’s defense shouldn’t give Pratt similar issues to what he saw with ECU, so Pratt is a great play this week.

Who to pair him with: Lawrence Keys III, Chris Brazzell II, Jha’Quan Jackson

Honorable Mentions: Cameron Ward (WSU). Michael Penix (UW). Jalen Milroe (BAMA). Alan Bowman (OKST). Haynes King (GT). Jordan Travis (FSU).

Value QBs: Fernando Mendoza (CAL). Hudson Card (PUR)

The RBs:

Ollie Gordon II (OKST): $7,900

The nation’s leading rusher gets to take on the nation’s fourth-worst rush defense. Gordon has been unstoppable the last six games he has played. He has averaged 185.8 yards and 1.7 touchdowns per game in that span. This weekend against UCF, he will face a team that allows 211.8 yards and 2.6 touchdowns on the ground per game. This is going to be a showcase game for him, as he will take another step closer to securing the Doak Walker Award for best RB in CFB.

Jaydn Ott (CAL): $7,500

Cal has not been involved in many main slates on DK this season, so I haven’t had much chance to write up Ott. But this week I will definitely be using him, as he is one of the best backs in CFB. Ott takes on a bottom-half Washington State Cougars defense that gives up 160.1 yards and 2.4 rushing touchdowns per game. Ott comes into the matchup against WSU averaging 106 yards and 1.3 touchdowns. Cal should use Ott early to not let the game get away from them like it did last week against Oregon.

Makhi Hughes (TUL): $5,800

Hughes has been a strong replacement for current Titans rookie Spears as the lead back for the Green Wave. Hughes comes into the game as the 22nd-ranked rusher, averaging 97.4 yards per game. He is currently on a five-game streak of 105 rushing yards or more. He gets a middle-of-the pack rush defense in Tulsa, as they rank 61st against the run, allowing 143.4 yards per game. He is by far the toughest matchup of the three RBs I wrote up, but he is a good RB that Tulane should be able to use as Tulsa will be focused on stopping QB Pratt.

Honorable Mentions: Blake Corum (MICH). Will Shipley (CLEM). Tahj Brooks (TTU). RJ Harvey (UCF). Dillon Johnson (UW). Devin Neal (KU).

Value RBs (5K and under): Jonah Coleman (ARIZ). Tyrone Tracy (PUR). Devin Mockobee (PUR)

The WRs:

Brennan Presley (OKST): $5,800

Presley has had a nice bounce back after starting the season a bit slow. Over the past four games, Presley has had 28 receptions for 277 yards and three touchdowns, averaging 21.6 points on the draft. Like I mentioned a few times above in my article, the Oklahoma vs. UCF game is one that I really like for DFS purposes. Presley comes in averaging 7.4 targets per game, which leads the team. Presley is going to get you a lot of 10-15 catches since he runs a lot more shorter routes, but he will see enough targets against a bad UCF pass defense to have a great DFS day.

Rome Odunze (UW): $8,900

Odunze has climbed up the WR draft board this season thanks to some of the best WR play in CFB. He ranks 5th in receiving yards (989) despite being ranked 22nd in receptions (56) and 27th in targets (79). Of players who have played a minimum of five games this week on the slate, he is the leader in fantasy points per game with 24.9 on DraftKings. But this will be the toughest defense he has had to go up against all season. The Utah pass defense ranks 34th in CFB and the 5th best pass defense on the slate. I expect the Huskies to come out playing like Oregon did against Utah and use their best weapon early and often to make Utah play a faster-paced game than they would like.

Eric Singleton Jr. (GT): $4,700

We are saving a lot of salary for a consistent WR. Over the past two weeks, Singleton has had 13 receptions for 197 yards and a score. Despite being the Yellowjackets WR2, he is leading the team with 55 targets and is two receptions behind WR1 Rutherford (37 to 35) for the team lead. Clemson has a strong defense, and I expect the Tigers to lead the majority of the game, so Singleton will have plenty of opportunities this game with the Yellowjackets playing from behind.

Honorable Mentions: Luther Burden (MIZZ). Xavier Weaver (COL). Keon Coleman (FSU). Rashod Owens (OKST). Ja’Lynn Polk (UW). Lincoln Victor (WSU). Squirrel White (TENN). Jeremiah Hunter (CAL). Jermaine Burton (BAMA).

Value Plays (4.9K and under): Jake Brinningstool (CLEM). Michael Harrison (COL)

Drago’s Best Bets:

  • Oklahoma State vs UCF Over 65.5
  • Penn State +4.5
  • Texas Tech +4
  • Alabama -11

Make sure to check out the CFB live stream every week on the Win Daily YouTube page.

Make sure to hop in our Expert Discord Chat for FREE! Ivan (idrago15) will be there answering questions all day and all night! Follow Ivan on Twitter @idragol15 and be sure to be on the lookout for future articles at https://windailysports.com/ncaa-football-articles/

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CFB Main Slate Breakdown for Week Ten

Ivan Herrera
written by Ivan Herrera

Welcome back to another exciting season of CFB! We are starting Week 10 action on Saturday with a big 12-game slate. We are starting to enter conference matchups, which always make for great environments.

The purpose of this article is to break down the college football main slates, both on the DFS and betting sites. The article includes my favorite plays at every position as well as honorable mentions. You can also find my favorite bets under my Dragos Best Bets section.

The QBs:

Darren Grainger (GAST): $7,000

Grainger is my favorite QB under 7.5K on the main slate. Grainger has been very consistent this season, aside from his performance against a Troy defense that has been good all season. In his seven games against opponents not named Troy, Grainger is averaging 26.7 points on DraftKings. This weekend, he was involved in one of my favorite games against JMU. The JMU pass defense is the 5th worst pass defense, allowing 288.9 yards per game through the air. Grainger, who comes in with a completion percentage of over 70%, should be able to pick apart the Dukes defense. His running ability is also a huge plus in this matchup, as JMU is one of the best rush defenses in the nation, so GAST should dial up some QB runs to try and open up JMU’s defense.

Who to pair him with: Robert Lewis, Tailique Williams

Dillon Gabriel (OU): $8,900

I debated a lot about who I should write up, Gabriel or Travis, but I think Gabriel has a much easier matchup against Oklahoma State’s 90th-ranked pass defense than Travis going up against Pitt’s 54th. Gabriel comes into this game with at least 23.3 DK points in every game this season. His eight rushing touchdowns have been a big help for him in DFS, and against a bad OKST defense, he should be able to use his legs to help the Sooners bounce back after losing last week. Over the past five weeks, the Cowboy defense has allowed 254 rushing yards to opposing QBs. Gabriel should be able to use all of his tools to get past OKST in a game that should be a shootout.

Who to pair him with: Nic Anderson, Jalil Farooq, and Drake Stoops

Jordan McCloud (JMU): $8,100

The QB opposite of Grainger is also very much in play. McCloud is probably the best QB the average fan has never heard of. Coming into the matchup against GAST, McCloud has had at least 250 yards and three touchdowns in four of his last five starts. Similarly to his GAST counterpart, McCloud gets a favorable matchup against the 6th worst pass defense. The GAST pass defense has allowed over 250 yards to every opposing QB aside from Louisiana’s QB. McCloud will be the best throwing QB that GAST has seen so far, so I expect him to be able to find holes in the GAST secondary.

Who to pair him with: Reggie Brown, Elijah Sarratt

Honorable Mentions: Jordan Travis (FSU). Kyron Drone (VT). Carson Beck (UGA). Zac Larrier (AF). Alan Bowman (OKST).

Value QBs: NONE! Not going lower than Bowman at $6,200.

The RBs:

Emmanuel Michel (AF): $6,400

Besides WR Reggie Brown, I don’t think there is a better play this weekend than Michel. Air Force comes into the game with the best rushing offense in CFB, and Michel plays a big role in that. Michel has accounted for 29% of the Air Force’s rushing yards and for 33% of their rushing touchdowns. He leads AF in both categories as well as being one of two AF rushers with over 100 carries this season, the second being starting QB Larrier. The matchup against the Army’s 116th-ranked rush defense paints a picture of a huge day for both Michel and Larrier.

Jawhar Jordan (UL): $6,700

Jordan has been one of the best DFS running backs this season averaging 23.9 points on DraftKings. His worse game (not including the game he was injured after 2 carries) was against NCST who is known for having a smothering defense. This weekend he gets to face a VTech rush defense that has not been great against the run. They are allowing 4.26 yards per carry which is the 4th most on the slate. Jordan looked like he had no ill effect coming back from injury last week against Duke where he rushed for 163 yards and two touchdowns.

Ollie Gordon II (OKST): $7,200

Gordon has become a star DFS RB over the past four weeks. He is averaging 26 carries for 214.3 yards and two touchdowns over the past four weeks. Then you had his 11 receptions for 142 yards and a touchdown, he’s a top RB on any slate. OKST should continue to run Gordon hard as they play their rivals Oklahoma this week who is coming off a loss. The 60.5 game total bodes well for both offenses to be able to go off.

Honorable Mentions: Jonathan Brooks (UT). Audric Estime (ND). Marcus Carroll (GAST). Bhayshul Tuten (VT). Quinshon Judkins (MISS). Nicholas Singleton (PSU).

Value RBs (5K and under): Raheim Sanders (ARK)

The WRs:

Reggie Brown (JMU): $5,000

I normally don’t use a WR who I included above in this section, but Brown is my favorite WR on the slate. I’m not sure why DK priced him at $5,000, but here we are. Over the past three games, he has had 19 receptions for 318 yards and three touchdowns. Through eight weeks, he has averaged 7.6 targets and 4.5 receptions per game. He should be in for a huge day against one of the worst pass defenses in the nation. With his price, you should be able to build almost any type of lineup, but if you need $400, his partner in crime, Sarratt, is worth a look as well.

Ladd McConkey (UGA): $5,800

McConkey has seen a large uptick in production since superstar TE Bowers suffered a potential season-ending injury. In the game and a a half since Bowers went out, McConkey has 10 receptions for 193 yards and a touchdown. His price doesn’t reflect the potential he has shown without Bowers in the lineup. Expect QB Beck to target him early and often, as the game against a strong Missouri side can turn into a shootout.

Xavier Worthy (UT): $6,700

Worthy’s price went down $100 this week after having an average day last week against BYU. This week, Worthy and Texas take on a middle-of-the pack pass defense in Kansas State. Last week against BYU Worthy, he had four receptions for 27 and failed to score a receiving touchdown, but his DFS day was saved by a punt return touchdown. Despite not showing results on the receiving stat sheet, Worthy was targeted nine times against BYU by the new starting QB. He should see a similar target share, as KSU can pull up an upset against Texas if the Longhorn offense stalls at any point.

Honorable Mentions: Marvin Harrison Jr (OSU). Keon Coleman (FSU). Luther Burden III (MIZZ). Jamari Thrash (UL). AD Mitchell (UT). Ainias Smith (TA&M). Dominic Lovett (UGA).

Value Plays (4.9K and under): Ben Sinnott (KSU). Ja’Tavion Sanders (UT). Cade Stover (OSU).

Drago’s Best Bets:

  • Texas vs Kansas State Over 49.5
  • JMU vs Georgia State Over 53.5
  • Air Force -18
  • Nebraska -3
  • Georgia Tech ML

Make sure to check out the CFB live stream every Friday night on the Win Daily YouTube page.

Make sure to hop in our Expert Discord Chat for FREE! Ivan (idrago15) will be there answering questions all day and all night! Follow Ivan on Twitter @idragol15 and be sure to be on the lookout for future articles at https://windailysports.com/ncaa-football-articles/

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CFB Main Slate Breakdown for Week Nine

Ivan Herrera
written by Ivan Herrera

Welcome back to another exciting season of CFB! We are starting Week 9 action on Saturday with a big 12-game slate. We are starting to enter conference matchups, which always make for great environments.

The purpose of this article is to break down the college football main slates, both on the DFS and betting sites. The article includes my favorite plays at every position as well as honorable mentions. You can also find my favorite bets under my Dragos Best Bets section.

The QBs:

Max Johnson (TA&M): $6,500

My favorite value QB of the week is Texas A&M’s Johnson, who gets a great matchup against SCAR’s 127th-ranked pass defense. The Gamecocks are giving up 305 passing yards per game and have given up 10 passing touchdowns. Johnson hasn’t had the best showing since taking over for Weigman, as he is averaging 14.1 points on DraftKings. But in those three games, he has faced pass defenses ranked 30th, 36th, and 37th, with all three allowing over 100 fewer passing yards per game than SCAR. This is the perfect opportunity for Johnson to return to the form he showed in 2021 with LSU, where he threw for 2814 yards and 27 touchdowns.

Who to pair him with: Evan Stewart. Ainias Smith. 

Donovan Smith (UH): $7,900

Smith has been one of the hottest QBs over his past three starts. He has threw for at least 250 yards and three touchdowns in each of his past three starts. He’ll look to make that four in a row against Kansas State’s 110th-ranked pass defense, which has struggled to keep good QBs at bay. With both Houston and Kansas State having meh defenses, Smith should have to throw a lot to keep pace in what should end up being a shootout.

Who to pair him with: Matthew Golden. Samuel Brown. Joseph Manjack IV.

Dillon Gabriel (OU): $9,400

Gabriel comes into week nine with the highest DK points per game on the slate, with 32.2. Last week, Gabriel scored 23.3, breaking his streak of six straight games with at least 25 points. He should have a good chance to restart his streak as he is going up against a Kansas pass defense that ranks in the bottom half in CFB. The emergence of Nic Anderson last week will definitely help Gabriel, as he lost his top WR, Anthony, the game prior. What has Gabriel looking like a Heisman candidate is his 24 total touchdowns (19 passing and 5 rushing). He has also been very careful with the ball, only having five total turnovers.

Who to pair him with: Jalil Farooq. Drake Stoops. Nic Anderson.

Honorable Mentions: Caleb Williams (USC). Jordan Travis (FSU). Will Howard (KSU). Sam Hartman (ND). Maalik Murphy (UT). John Rhys Plumlee (UCF).

Value QBs: Fernando Mendoza (CAL).

The RBs:

Nicholas Singleton (PSU): $6,300

Singleton has struggled as of late, scoring single digits in three of his last four appearances. His woes should end this weekend as Penn State takes on an Indiana side that is among the worst against the run. The Hoosiers are giving up 174.4 yards on the ground per game, which has them ranked 106th in CFB. Indiana has also given up the fourth-most rushing touchdowns on the slate. The yards haven’t been the main issue with Singleton; he has had at least 50 total yards in his three single-digit games. He has struggled to find the end zone, but against Indiana, which allows two rushing touchdowns per game, Singleton should return to form. In this game last year, Singleton had 16 attempts for 73 yards and a touchdown.

RJ Harvey (UCF): $6,200

Harvey has been a consistent DFS RB this season, as he has not gone under 10 points on DraftKings. His worst DK performance was 11.1 against Baylor, but besides that game, he has not finished under 15 points. This week, he gets to play WVU’s 65th-ranked rush defense. The Mountaineers will be a tough challenge for Harvey, but he has faced a much tougher challenge against Kansas. Against Kansas’s 33rd-ranked rush defense, Harvey ran for 133 yards and a touchdown. Both RBs in that game are really good options, as I will talk about the RB on the opposite side next.

CJ Donaldson Jr. (WVU): $6,100

I’m not sure why they gave Donaldson Jr. a $300 discount on DK compared to last week, but I’ll take it. Donaldson has scored a rushing touchdown in six of his last seven. On DraftKings, Donaldson has finished at 2x value or higher in every game this season. Last week, UCF struggled to contain Oklahoma’s Major and Sawchuk, who ran for a combined 145 yards. Donaldson is a better RB than both of OU’s backs, so I expect him to put up those numbers by himself. UCF has a slate high of 16 rushing touchdowns allowed and ranks as the worst rush defense on the slate.

Honorable Mentions: Bucky Irving (ORE) Audric Estime (ND). Jaydn Ott (CAL). Jonathon Brooks (UT). DJ Giddens (KSU). MarShawn Lloyd (USC). 

Value RBs (5K and under): Marcus Major (OU). 

The WRs:

Troy Franklin (ORE): $8,300

Franklin has been one of the best WRs in CFB this season, and his price this week shows that, as he is $1200 above the next available WR. Franklin is Oregon’s WR1 and comes into their matchup against Utah averaging 6.3 receptions per game. He has scored in all but two games this season. This past weekend against WSU, Franklin continued his streak of at least 4 receptions and 75 yards in every game. Franklin goes up against one of the better pass defenses in the PAC 12. This will be a big game for the Ducks CFP chances and for QB Bo Nix’s Heisman campaign, so I expect Oregon to feature their best weapon often to try and make Utah play at a faster pace. With DraftKings giving us solid options for decent prices, the price on Franklin does not scare me off of him.

Jamari Thrash (UL): $6,100

The Georgia State transfer has had a great first half of the season with Louisville. In DFS, Thrash has scored at least 18 points in all but one game, which was against a solid NC State defense. The connection he has with Plummer has made them a lethal threat to opponents. Thrash this weekend goes against one of my favorite defenses in Duke, who are ranked 16th against the pass, which will keep many off of Thrash. The two best teams that the Duke defense has gone up against, Notre Dame and FSU, have been able to throw against them as they have given up 50+ yards to four different WRs in those two games. With Leonard most likely out for Duke, I expect the Blue Devil offense to stall early on, which will give Louisville more possessions for Thrash to work with.

Xavier Worthy (UT): $6,800

Worthy can be in for a huge day this week. Redshirt freshman Maalik Murphy is making his first start of the season, and I expect the Texas coaches to build the game around Worthy as he is the best weapon in Texas. In Worthy’s past three games, he has seen at least seven targets. In those three games, he had 21 receptions for 293 yards and a touchdown. Normally, I would stay away from using a WR when he has an inexperienced QB starting, but BYU has one of the worst pass defenses in CFB, so I don’t think Murphy will struggle as much as he should.

Honorable Mentions: Tez Johnson (ORE). Xavier Legette (SCAR). Brenden Rice (USC). Ladd McConkey (UGA). Jeremiah Hunter (CAL). Jalon Calhoun (DUKE). Mitchell Evans (ND).

Value Plays (4.9K and under): Darius Lassiter (BYU). Ja’Tavion Sanders (UT). Jaheim Bell (FSU). Terrance Ferguson (ORE).

Drago’s Best Bets:

  • Oklahoma -9.5
  • Houston +17.5
  • Georgia -15
  • WVU vs UCF Over 57.5
  • Miami vs Virginia Over 47.5

Make sure to check out the CFB live stream every Friday night on the Win Daily YouTube page.

Make sure to hop in our Expert Discord Chat for FREE! Ivan (idrago15) will be there answering questions all day and all night! Follow Ivan on Twitter @idragol15 and be sure to be on the lookout for future articles at https://windailysports.com/ncaa-football-articles/

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