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brooklyn nets

NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 10/26

DFSGhost 3 years ago

written by DFSGhost

Now that most teams have a few games under their belt, players are starting to find their groove on both sides of the ball. Rookies continue adjusting to the pace of play, while veterans get back into form. Additionally, with the new and improved NBA schedule, teams will face off against one another multiple times over the same week or two to limit travelling. This scenario is highlighted below, amongst other game environments to target. It’s a Wet Wednesday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

Despite only being a week into the new season, injury news has been affecting NBA slates daily. In order to keep up, be sure to use our proprietary NBA projections and cheat sheet to build your lineups. Moreover, join the conversation in the Win Daily Discord to get the insight you need from both subscribers and staff.

Brooklyn Nets @ Milwaukee Bucks (-4)

Brooklyn Nets (+4)

Make no mistake about it: the Nets will only go as far as Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant can carry them. Last game, the two stars combined for over half of the team’s field goal attempts. Taking 44 shots out of 87 attempts, Kyrie and KD combined for 74 points of the team’s 124. However, the two each have a tough matchup tonight. KD will likely see a lot of Giannis, while Irving will see Jrue Holiday out on the perimeter. I lean the former in this spot, who will try to stay around the 3-point line and find the midrange, as he attempts to get Giannis to stay closer to the basket. Pacing the team in both usage rate and scoring, KD makes for an attractive tournament play on this NBA slate, if committing to this game.

Milwaukee Bucks (-4)

Playing at an MVP level in the early stages of the NBA season, Giannis Antetokounmpo has the best chance to lead the slate in scoring. Through two games, Giannis has averaged 32.5/12.5/5.5 on 70/3% shooting through a 34.6% usage rate. Not only has he been efficient, but he’s doing so at a historic rate. Last game, Giannis scored 44 points in only 28 minutes, making him the fifth player in league history to do so. In a matchup versus a Nets roster that ranks 25th in points allowed in the paint per game with 55.3 per contest, it’s all systems go on the Greek Freak.

Indiana Pacers @ Chicago Bulls (-7.5)

Indiana Pacers (+7.5)

Another NBA slate with the Pacers means I get to talk about Tyrese Haliburton once again. However, I’ll spare the long writeup as you already know I like the idea of playing him. Rather, my attention for this game will be on Buddy Hield. Being one of the best shooters in the league since arriving in 2016, Hield has largely gone under-appreciated. Despite a modest 22.1% usage rate, Hield sits fourth in the team in scoring. Additionally, the sharpshooter has taken over eight attempts from deep per contest, hitting at a 36.4% clip. Facing a Bulls team that currently ranks 28th in the NBA in 3-point field goal percentage allowed, Hield makes for an intriguing tournament play, should his shot be falling.

Chicago Bulls (-7.5)

With Zach Lavine making his return to the lineup last game, the Bulls offense is back in play. Still missing from the lineup is Lonzo Ball (knee), but that didn’t stop the team from putting up 120 points against one of the NBA’s best defenses in the Boston Celtics. In a matchup versus the Pacers, a primary target of mine will be Nikola Vucevic. In last game’s matchup versus a Celtics team that struggles on the interior without Robert Williams III, Vucevic led the team in usage rate, en route to an 18/23/5 scoring line on 36.8% shooting. Even with Lavine making his return, Vucevic managed to see 19 attempts from the field across 31 minutes. Versus a Pacers team that may be without Myles Turner (ankle) entirely, or at least on a limited basis, Vucevic will dominate the paint on both ends of the floor.

Houston Rockets @ Utah Jazz (-5.5)

Houston Rockets (+5.5)

Right back to the well with a game we discussed on Monday’s slate. While some were underwhelmed by the output, these two teams still combined for 222 points despite a 39-point first quarter. Needless to say, this game environment remains to be one of, if not the best on the NBA slate. I wrote up Jalen Green in this same matchup and he went for 25/3/3 on 56.3% shooting. Moreover, I highlighted the backcourt advantage both he and Kevin Porter Jr. hold over Mike Conley and Jordan Clarkson. In addition to Green, Porter Jr. went for 26/10/4 on 42.1% shooting. While he likely won’t grab another ten rebounds, both are firmly in play.

Utah Jazz (-5.5)

Similarly to the Rockets writeup, I’m going back to the same Jazz players I wanted on Monday. Despite the modest output, Lauri Markkanen still finished second on the team in usage rate at 27.6%. Moreover, he shot an abysmal 7-for-19 from the field, leaving most of the field underwhelmed about his last performance. As a result, I’m hoping for a lower number of people rostering him, but that remains to be seen. Markkanen is in the same elite matchup against a defense that ranks 27th in net rating and he took a price drop on the salary grid.

Honorable Mentions:

Atlanta Hawks @ Detroit Pistons (+7)
San Antonio Spurs @ Minnesota Timberwolves (-8.5)

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

3 years ago 0 comments

NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 10/24

DFSGhost 3 years ago

written by DFSGhost

The first week of the NBA season now behind us and there are plenty of intriguing storylines to follow. New acquisitions in the Eastern Conference are making their mark early, while certain teams out West are already underperforming. As teams get ready for the what the second week has to offer, tonight’s action gets us started on the right note. It’s a Mojito Monday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

Having numerous tournaments won by our subscribers over the first week of the NBA season says it all. The NBA is unlike any other sport from a DFS perspective, but with our proprietary NBA projections and cheat sheet to build your lineups, you’re right where you need to be to succeed. Be sure to join the Win Daily Discord to get the insight you need to win.

Utah Jazz @ Houston Rockets (-1)

Utah Jazz (+1)

I, like everyone else, certainly did not have the Utah Jazz being first in the Western Conference after the first week of the NBA season on my bingo card. Gone are Rudy Gobert, Donovan Mitchell, and Bojan Bogdanovic, but that has not slowed the team down. Tonight, the 3-0 Jazz take on the league’s worst defense in the Houston Rockets on the second half of a back-to-back. Not only is this rotation in one of the best game environments on the slate, but they have massive Point/$ upside. Pacing the offense is none other than Lauri Markkanen, who has benefitted tremendously from the change of scenery. Markkanen leads all starters with a 23% usage rate while posting a 24/9.7/3.7 scoring line on 48.1% shooting. With rookie Jabari Smith Jr. still adjusting his game, look for Markkanen to utilize his size on the wing in a favorable matchup.

Houston Rockets (-1)

While the Rockets won’t be contending for the playoffs anytime soon, their future is bright. The young core of Porter Jr., Green, Smith Jr., and Sengun is certainly one of the best in the NBA. Not only are their game environments elite, but their current Point/$ upside is unlike any other offense on the slate. While Jared Vanderbilt is a good defender in the paint, the rest of the Jazz starting five is struggling to contain their opposition. Jalen Green is streaky given the high correlation between his DFS output and raw scoring, but a matchup against Jordan Clarkson is too good to pass up. On the season, Green leads the Rockets in usage at a 29.3% rate, while posting a 23.7/4.7/2.3 scoring line on 43.3% shooting. Taking 20 field goal attempts per night, Green is in a great spot.

Brooklyn Nets @ Memphis Grizzlies (-1.5)

Brooklyn Nets (+1.5)

Coming into the NBA season with lofty expectations, the Nets successfully bounced back from an ugly loss in their season opener with a tightly contested win against the Raptors. While both Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving are firmly in play, I want to highly the role that Nic Claxton has been playing in the paint. Despite the modest 19.3% usage rate through two games, Claxton is third on the team in scoring. He has now posted a double-double in both games this season, averaging 16/10.5 on 77.8% shooting. Logging nearly 30 minutes per contest, look for the Nets to run the floor in the transition game in an attempt to make the Grizzlies roll out a smaller lineup, making Claxton all that much more intriguing.

Memphis Grizzlies (-1.5)

Should Dillon Brooks (thigh) miss a fourth straight game, it’s all systems go on Ja Morant. Pacing the team with a 36.3% usage rate, Morant has averaged a whopping 34.3 PPG in the first three games of his season. Taking over 20 field goal attempts per night, he’s shooting 54.8% from the field, including 57.1% from behind the arc. In a matchup versus Kyrie Irving, who has net defensive rating of 124.1 this season, Morant has the potential to lead the NBA slate in scoring.

Honorable Mentions:

Indiana Pacers @ Philadelphia 76ers (-11.5)
Denver Nuggets @ Portland Trail Blazers (+3.5)

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

3 years ago 0 comments

NBA

NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 10/19

DFSGhost 3 years ago

written by DFSGhost

After two thrilling games on opening night, we have our first large slate of the NBA season. New rotations and multiple players making debuts with their new teams steal the headlines, but there are also players returning from serious injuries and plenty of elite game environments to target. While the games listed in the Honorable Mentions section at the end of the article are high on my list, they will be popular. Thus, discussed are a few spots that may go overlooked in tournaments. It’s a Wet Wednesday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

You will see a reoccurring message across all articles, but it’s truly imperative to success. The way NBA news rolls in unlike any other sport makes every slate different. Thus, it’s crucial to use our proprietary NBA projections and cheat sheet to build your lineups. Be sure to join the Win Daily Discord to get the insight you need to win NBA DFS tournaments.

Washington Wizards @ Indiana Pacers (+2)

Washington Wizards (-2)

In a game that will largely go overlooked on a large NBA slate, there is offensive upside to be had. The Wizards offense will continue to run through Bradley Beal, who is expensive tonight, but his teammates are not. Kyle Kuzma is coming of a career year where he averaged 17.1/8.5/3.5 on 45.2% shooting through a 24.3% usage rate. Facing off versus a combination of poor defenders and inexperienced wings, he may not make my final lineup, but Kuzma draws intrigue in my preview.

Indiana Pacers (+2)

On the flipside of this game, get used to seeing Tyrese Haliburton listed here early and often. In 13 games for the Pacers last season, Haliburton was electric. The usage was modest at 20.2%, but he averaged an 18/10.9 double-double while also grabbing nearly five rebounds per game. Facing a Wizards perimeter defense that struggles to guard primary ball handlers, Haliburton finds himself as a key component of my NBA lineups tonight.

New Orleans Pelicans @ Brooklyn Nets (-3)

Brooklyn Nets (-3)

The pace of this one will be off the charts and both teams carry a ton of upside. Brooklyn had an offseason to remember, involving storylines surrounding their two star players, but their rotation remains intact and now has reinforcements. Should you choose to go with a 1-2 punch at the top of the pricing grid tonight from the same game, this is it. Beginning with Kevin Durant, your NBA lineups can generate upside from a back and forth in this one. Durant can score with ease, dropping nearly 30 PPG last season through a 31.1% usage rate. One of the safest players in the league to log heavy minutes nightly, Durant not only has a safe floor, but one of the highest ceilings on this slate.

New Orleans Pelicans (+3)

Making his return to an NBA floor in this one is none other than Zion Williamson. The former Duke standout missed all of last season, but is back after averaging 27/7.2/3.7 across 33 MPG in his last full campaign. In a glorious matchup versus a Nets defense that struggled mightily on the interior last season, Williamson is intriguing for tournaments, barring any minute limitations. The Nets allowed over 47 points in the paint per contest last season, and didn’t address their interior defense in the offseason. A force in the paint that averaged seven paint touches per game in his last full season, good for 10th in the NBA, Williamson makes for a good target in tournaments.

Charlotte Hornets @ San Antonio Spurs (+2)

Charlotte Hornets (-2)

Let it be known that both of these teams are tanking for Victor Wembanyama. Arguably the most hyped NBA prospect since LeBron James, if you have not seen footage of his game, I suggest going to watch it as soon as possible. Needless to say that these types of game environments will be elite for NBA DFS this year and we won’t have to wait until the later stages of the season to get exposure to them. With LaMelo Ball (ankle) not playing in the Hornets’ season opener, look for both Kelly Oubre Jr. and Terry Rozier to take all the shots they can handle. With Ball off the court last season, both Rozier and Oubre Jr. saw increases in usage and fantasy production. Rozier saw his usage rate increase from 23.4% to 25.5%, while Oubre Jr. saw an increase in usage from 22.9% to 25.9%.

San Antonio Spurs (+2)

Gone is Dejounte Murray, the former face of the Spurs franchise, as they now enter their biggest rebuild since drafting Tim Duncan. With Murray now in Atlanta, there are so many touches to go around offensively and the Spurs are in arguably the best matchup NBA DFS has to offer. Charlotte ended last season 5th in pace and 22nd in net defensive rating, struggling across multiple positions and player types. Dominating usage for the Spurs early on is Tre Jones, who will be supported by the likes of Josh Primo and Devin Vassell in the backcourt, with the duo of Keldon Johnson and Jakob Poeltl manning the frontcourt. In eleven starts last season, Jones posted a 13.5/4.6/7.5 scoring line on 48.8% shooting all on a mere 17.5% usage rate.

Honorable Mentions:

Houston Rockets @ Atlanta Hawks (-9.5)
Portland Trail Blazers @ Sacramento Kings (-2)

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

3 years ago 0 comments

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NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Tuesday, February 23

Gary Gustafson 4 years ago

written by Gary Gustafson

Welcome back to a Tuesday edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots as we tackle this 9 game slate on FanDuel and DraftKings and outline our top picks and slate strategy!

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NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown

Opening up this 9 game slate there are a few key things that jump out including the fact that 7 of the 9 games are tipping off within the first hour of lock, which means we have minimal “late-swap” opportunity with only 2 games at the tail end of the night.

Secondly, we have a large slate and a ton of big-time injury news which likely means we have value open through the day. With Russell Westbrook on a B2B and questionable tags for all of Kristaps Porzingis, Kyle Lowry, Steph Curry, Harrison Barnes and Jeff Green – there is likely value awaiting us this evening.

I am sure you are all sitting here and waiting – this is Picks and Pivots after all – but how on Earth do you expect me to start anywhere else besides the Nets and Kings tonight?

We get an elite game environment with a slate leading 242 game total with two of the top 10 teams in pace and two of the bottom 4 defensive rated teams in the league. High total, fast pace, no defense – word to your mother.

No Defense in Brooklyn!

No matter how you carve up the metrics this season, the Nets and Kings are going to be common culprits in the high pace and no defense stats across the Association. In NBA DFS – we don’t just attack plays, we attack game environments and there is no better one to go all-in on tonight than this one in Brooklyn.

The Nets will remain without Kevin Durant tonight, and we cannot understate the importance of the Brooklyn injury report – as both TLC and Jeff Green are questionable to play. Brooklyn played one of the tightest rotations of the season against the Clippers last game out with essentially a 7 man rotation and that included Uncle Jeff with a whopping 34 minutes of court time. Take him off and well….you get the idea!

Let’s not bury the lede here- it all starts with James Harden ($10.7K) and Kyrie Irving ($8.8K). Harden remains priced correctly for his role while Kyrie seems to be wildly under-priced every game – the truth is, I want both stars in this kind of game as it has the type of game script that gives them both paths to ceiling.

I also LOVE stacking both Brooklyn guards on slates this size because they tend to be overlooked when it comes to ownership. Adam, Ghost, and I talk about this all the time – but on slates where Kyrie and Harden seem like the obvious path, we tend to get news (looking at you Westbrook) that could push ownership away from them and we get to lock with Brooklyn studs at 10-15% ownership. This was the exact case on Sunday by the way when they played the Clippers. Nobody pays up for Kyrie and Harden despite the fact that they are arguably the best plays on the slate every time Durant remains out.

If Jeff Green is ultimately unable to play with a shoulder injury, De’Andre Jordan ($5.5K) is going to be tasked with all the minutes he can possibly handle. DJ played 32 minutes against the Clippers and dropped 43 DK points alongside Green – if Green is out, DJ is one of the best PP/$ plays on the slate – it is that simple.

The wing guys like Joe Harris ($5.7K) and Bruce Brown ($4.5K) become more fill-ins within a game stack that both have 30+ minute roles in this advantageous game script as well. In fact, the Kings rank 2nd to last in the NBA in 3P% allowed which could spell big trouble if they leave Joe Harris open on the perimeter as the defenses collapse on Harden and Kyrie.

The Nets side of this is likely the “easier” side to figure out – as the Kings rotations are far less predictable but if Harrison Barnes sits again, it could open up some clearer paths to attack Sacramento.

The best part about this Kings team on DraftKings is the pricing – only one player De’Aaron Fox ($8K) – sits above $6.5K on this slate – meaning you can largely stack this team around the pricey Brooklyn back-court without much issue.

Fox is the engine that makes this team move, but the DFS output has been largely muted in recent games. Fox has been held under 40 DK points now in 4 straight games but before that he had flashed the 50-60 DK point upside against Philly and the Clippers – and THAT is the kind of ceiling that we want for GPP’s. It is hard to argue there is a batter bounce back spot for Fox than this – in this kind of fast pace game against arguably the worst defensive back court in the league – if Fox is hitting a ceiling, this is the spot for it.

Speaking of ceiling spots – Richaun Holmes ($5.6K) gets the old – Centers against Nets match-up. The formula for Holmes is simple – it is all about minutes – if he gets 30+ minutes he smashes ceiling – if he plays 20-ish minutes, he gives you snowflakes. This game happened a week ago if you recall, a game that Holmes sat and Hassan Whiteside went looney tunes with 58 DK points off the bench. Centers against the Nets is a thing.

The Kings did not play yesterday, they have Brooklyn today and then 2 days off before they head across the city to take on the Knicks. If they are ever going to run Holmes, this is the kind of “long” road-trip that you would think Coach Walton would allow it.

Alongside Fox and Holmes, I love the idea of targeting one of Buddy Hield or Tyrese Haliburton at similar $6K price tags. Fox and Hield have a positive correlation, whereas Haliburton inversely correlates with Fox which in some ways – makes this decision quite easy for me. Hield is also shooting some serious volume right now – with back-to-back games with double-digit 3PA – however, struggling with inefficiency – making just 5 of the 21 3PA. If Hield is seeing that kind of volume here – the sky is the limit if he gets any sort of efficiency boost against the poor Nets defense.

If Barnes were to sit – keep an eye on DaQuan Jeffries ($3.8K) who got the start on Sunday and played a whopping 40 minutes on his way to 33 DK points. This was a massive outlier if you look at his recent games, but if hes getting that kind of run against Brooklyn for sub 4K its a worthy dice roll.

I am going to throw out a name here as a GPP dart – Jabari Parker ($3K). Yes – THAT Jabari Parker. Parker has seen his first run of the season the last two games, with 16 minutes of court time on Sunday being his season high. This is not a simple case of blowout run either – Parker checked in alongside Haliburton in the first quarter and got 10 minutes of run in the first half against the Bucks.

This is nothing more than speculation but Parker’s role is trending up while role players like Glenn Robinson III is away from the team. If Parker has seen his minutes go from 9 to 16 the last two games – if he gets 20 minutes at 3K against the Nets – hello value city.

Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up

We have 9 games on this NBA DFS slate tonight and as a GPP player – I love that the pool is that big – because while the field looks at this vast player pool and chasing the “new news” – I am going to anchor to the best game on the slate.

The Nets/Kings game checks every box for DFS ceiling. High total (240+), with two teams that rank in the top 10 in pace and bottom 5 in defense. We get stars to build around in Kyrie, Harden and Fox and injuries that push the fringe players in this game into elite potential value plays. Stack it up. Stack it in. Let me begin.

Enjoy this slate – let’s get in our FREE Discord today and chat it up while we dig through our cheat sheets and custom projections here at Win Daily to set up the start of this NBA DFS season with some big wins!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

4 years ago 0 comments

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NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Thursday, February 18

Gary Gustafson 4 years ago

written by Gary Gustafson

Welcome to a Thursday NBA DFS edition of Picks and Pivots where we get a short three-game slate that packs a whole lot of star power across FanDuel and DraftKings!

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown

On three game NBA DFS slates like we have tonight, you know I am a big believer in taking a stand and building around games versus specific players. As a GPP player, these are the kind of nights where you plant your flag – go all in on the game you like and in parallel, root hard against the games you faded!

When you look at this slate at a macro level, the two games that stand out are the Raptors/Bucks and Nets/Lakers and my guess is Miami/Sacramento becomes the boring one-off value game to fill out rosters.

Rather than simply list out plays, what I want to do today is a walk through a game stack focused GPP build on these types of games and how you can think through attacking it.

As Adam mentioned in his Core 4 today – ownership will be interesting to watch today and frankly, could be a key determining factor on where you plant your flag. The Nets/Lakers game has the star power that could draw ownership but I do think if Kyle Lowry ends up ruled out, it pushes more ownership towards a Raptors/Bucks stack that now becomes more balanced and easier to stack.

Nets and Lakers Game Stack

Let’s not pretend like Picks and Pivots was going to start anywhere else. In fact, during our slate preview discussions with Adam and Ghost, they joked – well we know what 2Lock is going to write so let’s try and write up something different. They know me – they get me.

UPDATE – Normally I do not come back and update these articles because news is so fluid in NBA but as of 3PM EST – I noticed something I thought was worth pointing out.

The Nets/Lakers total has dropped 7 POINTS today which is a massive in day movement without any public news.

Guys – be super careful with this game. If we do not have news before lock, understand your only pivots will be to the Kings and Heat and hence, everyone will pivot the same place at the same time (assuming we even get it before those games start). Just keep this in mind.

https://twitter.com/2lockSports/status/1362488172521926658

There is no secret here – we know the Nets play at a breakneck pace and they do so with defense being a total afterthought. There is a reason this game has the highest total on the slate and with the injury news the way it has fallen – stacking this became a matter of when versus how.

No Anthony Davis and no Kevin Durant make the path super simple – LeBron James ($10.2K) ran back with James Harden ($10.6K) and Kyrie Irving ($8.9K).

That is it – that’s the lineup. You want this game stack, you just locked in about 50% of the shot attempts in this game from this trio and if this game goes off, well you just found the guys who are going to be the reason.

The pricing is soft enough, primarily Kyrie’s price, that you can stack all 3 and you still have $4K per player for the rest of your build. So the question then becomes where else do you go?

On the Nets side of this game, as weird as it sounds, the status of Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot is huge because it will really open up those fringe minutes for Brooklyn, which is where most of the value is. Bruce Brown ($4.1K) is likely going to draw the LeBron assignment and I think for that reason, he has the clear path to minutes at a cheap price point for Brooklyn.

The other Brooklyn player I think has some sneaky ceiling here is Jeff Green ($5.2K) – another player I can see getting significant run in a game that plays small at times and will be key in defending his old pal LeBron.

When Green was on the Celtics, he was routinely tasked with the LeBron Miami Heat assignments and while that is pushing a decade ago – we even saw 2 years ago in Washington where Green got the same assignment against an AD-less Lakers team.

The Lakers are a solid defensive team but they do struggle recently defending the three, ranking in the bottom 10 in 3P% and with so much focus on Kyrie/Harden – guys like Brown/Green can spot up and know down uncontested three balls.

Much of the decision here comes down to price – I like both plays in a game stack but that $1K savings on Brown over Green may be a deciding factor when all is said and done on a slate where every dollar counts!

The Lakers side of this game is where I think you really anchor to the value with AD sidelined. The starting unit here has a ton of value – specifically with Marc Gasol ($4K) and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ($3.3K).

The Lakers played a really condensed rotation last game with AD out, running Gasol and KCP 30+ minutes. As simple as it sounds – if you play 30 minutes against the Nets matador defense, you best believe you are in the player pool.

For Gasol, if you are a Center, playing 30 minutes against Brooklyn? Well, you are about to find your ceiling game and a DFS price increase. Did you guys NOT see what Hassan Whiteside just did to this Nets interior? Gasol at 4K and 30 minutes is just silly value and an ideal stacking piece or even a one-off value if you need it.

If you are KCP – this is the kind of game he thrives in as Brooklyn is one of the most turnover-prone teams in the NBA, giving up over 8 steals per game to opponents over the last 10 games. KCP played 30 minutes last game without AD, put up double-digit shot attempts, and remains $300 over the minimum on DK – and oh yeah, it is his birthday today. So, hello narrative season!

The one “spend-up” I want alongside LeBron today is Dennis Schroder ($5.2K). Schroder is going to be the primary secondary scorer now and if you look at the game flow against OKC what you notice is his staggered run with LeBron.

LeBron would come out, leaving Schroder to run the offense and then sub back in for Schroder and then sub back in mid first and second half to serve as the “point guard” when Schroder got his breather. I love this staggered approach from a correlation perspective as both players have a path then to ceiling with you always having at least one on the court to attack this Nets back court.

So what does this look like?

Step 1 is to lock in the 3 stars in LeBron, Kyrie and Harden. The stars and their raw points are what is going to dictate your cash position on a slate this size. If they have ceiling games, you are likely in a strong cash position – if they do not, well you move on to Friday – so is the life of a GPP game stack.

Step 2 is to lock in the obvious value and I think for me that starts with Marc Gasol and KCP. To get two players with 30+ minutes at $4K or lower in this kind of game environment is just too good to pass on and they complement well with a star like LeBron due to their ability to rack up peripheral/non-scoring stats.

Step 3 (A) is really where you make a decision on the “pay up” – whether you go for someone like Schroder or you push for a third Nets piece.

Step 3 (B): You take your one off value from the other game.

I lumped these two together because I think the punt you choose from the other games is going to decide which “mid-range” plays you can afford. If you can find a true punt in these other games that you like, it gives you FAR more ability to pay up for a Schroder or Jeff Green type, but if you cannot get comfortable, then living down in Bruce Brown land is where you likely end up.

Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up

The small slates are always about taking a stand with your NBA DFS builds and this slate is no different. We have massive star power with Giannis in the early game and the Lakers/Nets late-night hammer – the issue with fading them is that you cannot fade the PLAYERS themselves, you need to fade the games.

If the Raptors/Bucks game stays close – Giannis has a 70+ DK point path as he showed in the previous meeting against them. So rather than just “fade him” – I think you fade that game and hope it is one-sided. To me there is no reason to play a Siakam/FVV if you aren’t running it back with Giannis.

This means thinking through game scripts and trying to predict game flows versus specific players.

On this short slate, no game has the mix of star power and value that the Nets and Lakers has, and the fact the pricing is soft enough where we can stack LeBron, Kyrie and Harden together and still feel good about our build – I say, we take the clearest path and simply enjoy the show.

4 years ago 0 comments

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NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Monday, February 15

Gary Gustafson 4 years ago

written by Gary Gustafson

Happy Monday my NBA DFS family and friends – we are back to the weekly NBA grind after a big weekend of sports and we kick it off with a strong seven-game slate on DraftKings and FanDuel to build around.

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown

Opening up this 7 game NBA DFS slate on Monday, you are likely going to notice something quite quickly – the injury tags that accompany most of the big name players in the pool.

With Kevin Durant, Victor Oladipo, and Mike Conley already ruled out and questionable tags for the likes of Joel Embiid, Kawhi Leonard, Paul George and Russell Westbrook – well, you start to see where this slate has the potential to end up.

If the news breaks the right way, you are going to get boatloads of value, with a clear select few stars to pay for and all the salary to do so as a result of the aforementioned value. Easy peasy kids.

One other thing that I think is a critical point tonight logistically – of the 7 games on this slate, 3 of them start from 7-7:30 PM EST while the remaining 4 all start at 9 PM EST or later. I bring that up because we may need to stay flexible with our builds to adjust for late night news.

Where do we start?

Let’s work our way chronologically tonight as we build our lineups – using the early game core plays first in our builds – locking them into specific spots in our DK builds (PG, SG etc versus G,F, UTIL) so that we can keep the flexibility for later in the evening.

The Rockets/Wizards game is going to be stop #1 as one of the premier game environments on the slate – a high total, fast pace and a ton of mid-range plays to choose from. Now tack on the fact we already know the Rockets are without Oladipo/Wood and the Wizards may sit Westbrook on the B2B – and well, it becomes an ideal PP/$ value spot.

At this point in the season, we know that much of the success as it relates to NBA DFS is taking advantage of price points that are not reflective of their roles. Bradley Beal ($8.9K) under $9K with Westbrook sidelined, is one of those spots.

Beal has played 6 games this season with Westbrook off the court, averaging 56 DK points per game (6.3x value at tonight’s price), and shooting the ball 26 times per game in those outings. To get this kind of consistent ceiling in similar game types, at a rare discount DFS price, makes this an easy building block tonight and one that ownership will not sway my decision making.

The other early game stop where we get a superstar at a discount is Damontas Sabonis ($9.1K) against the Chicago Bulls. Sabonis faced the Bulls earlier this season and dropped a 55 DK point triple-double and with the BUlls being

The next spot for stars moves to the final game of the night with the Brooklyn Nets and Sacramento Kings.

Not only do we get to attack the Nets in a simplified manner with Durant sidelined, but we get to do so in a high pace game with two teams that rank among the 5 worst defensive teams in the league the last 15 games.

No Durant means all the James Harden ($10.7K) and Kyrie Irving ($9K) and while Harden requires a premium to be paid, I would argue that Kyrie is much like Mr. Beal – far too cheap.

In the last three games that Durant has sat and Harden has played, Kyrie has put up 45, 50, and 58 DK points and none of those games were against defenses that rank as poorly as the Kings do tonight. As much as I love Harden here and I have no issue paying for him – Kyrie may be the better PP/$ play.

On the other side of this game, speaking of too cheap – De’Aaron Fox ($8.8K) – is the ideal run back on the Kings side of this game that can attack the worst part of the Nets defense statistically.

To me this five-man star core is where you start your builds tonight and jamming in four of these plays is a path that is easily achievable with the projected value we have.

Finding the value

The first big piece of news we need tonight is Joel Embiid – who will take on the Utah Jazz at 9 PM EST. If Embiid sits, it changes the entire slate and gives us a clear path to stars and scrubs and frankly, he is the reason I think you need to back load builds in the case we do not have his confirmation prior to 7 PM EST lock.

The last two games that Embiid sat – we saw Tony Bradley ($3K) get a big boost in minutes, playing 23 minutes off the bench and 17 minutes in a start against Indiana. Bradley dropped 25 DK points off the bench and got just 10 as a starter and let’s not act like this spot against Rudy Gobert is ideal – but at $3K, I do not ask questions. We talk about this all the time – but playing those punts allows me the path to the stars and that is what matters.

Dwight Howard ($3.6K) drew the start against the Pistons but actually did his best work off the bench against the Pacers second unit where he played 25 minutes and put up 35 DK points. If he comes off the bench, you could argue he gets the better spot against the Jazz second unit.

The fringe Sixers all get a nice boost here any time Embiid is out and the fact that Shake Milton is also sidelined adds to the appeal here. Matisse Thybulle ($3.1K) already has a 15-20 minute role with Embiid but we saw against the Pacers he played 25 minutes and racked up 25 DK points on the second unit.

It is always “easier” to focus on the punt starters and those guys tend to be the ones who draw the ownership, but do not overlook the secondary plays here like Thybulle who get essentially the same boost.

Now if the Sixers value does not materialize, remember we have pivots with 3 games starting after BUT do not just simply assume this value is “locked” and you need to keep your roster flexible.

For example – if you opt to use Sabonis – my recommendation is to use him at Center and then put Bradley/Howard at Utility. I say this because if you put Bradley/Howard at Center and then Embiid gets ruled in – you are going to be extremely limited in your pivot options at Center only at DK.

Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up

This slate to me is very clear – we need to anchor to four studs on a night where the value will dictate this kind of build. Assuming the stars sit as we outlined, you need to take a path of extreme Stars and Scrubs because those stars that remain can set the cash line on their own.

So go ahead and lock in four stars – grab the value we already have, adjust as we get more or “new” value, and most importantly – stay flexible with this slate being incredibly back-loaded.

4 years ago 0 comments

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NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Tuesday, February 2

Gary Gustafson 4 years ago

written by Gary Gustafson

Happy Tuesday my NBA DFS family – after a wild Monday NBA slate with a late game postponment, let’s hope we can get a but more normalcy on this six game Tuesday Night slate. I will say, big kudos to FanDuel and DraftKings for how they handled the Nuggets/Pistons PPD in refunding entry fees to those impacted – it is a great thing for the DFS industry when they put the customer first!

Looking to take your game to the next level? Lock in our reduced Gold Membership deal now, getting THREE MONTHS of all sports access for just $79.99 using promo code “Winning” – and let’s get to some green!

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown

Opening up this six-game slate, there are a few things right off the top that jump out to me. First, the Utah/Detroit game is going to be a COVID risk we need to keep our eye on, and with it being one of only 2 late night games, your options to swap will be limited IF we were to get another late postpone.

Secondly, we have two MONSTER game environments in Portland/Washington and Brooklyn/LA Clippers that have game totals pushing near 250 and rightfully so – will dominate the headlines and ownership.

Lastly, we have some injury news that we already know that is going to open up multiple starters tonight with $3K price tags and those value plays are going to be critical to get the pay ups we will need.

So where do we start?

We have spent a lot of time here at Win Daily the last few weeks attacking the Brooklyn Nets post the James Harden trade as they rank as the 3rd worst defensive team in the last 10 games with the #1 offensive rating.

It is hard for me to argue that the starting point tonight should be anything other than the Nets and Clippers – as we have seen this game environment result in ceiling DFS scores repeatedly. A national TV game with a near 250 total on a short slate where we have multiple games we can cross off – makes me very eager to plant my flag and game stack this spot!

The Clippers side feels simply far too cheap – Kawhi Leonard ($9.2K) and Paul George ($8.9K) have a superstar ceiling but they are priced at second-tier levels tonight. We just saw a similar 1-2 punch in Washington combine for 123+ DK points against this Nets “defense” – so there is serious 6-7x profit potential on this Clippers side.

One other option when attacking the Clippers would be to take just one star or none and instead attack the mid-range from LA with Serge Ibaka ($6K), Reggie Jackson ($5.1K), Nicolas Batum ($5.2K), Marcus Morris ($4.7K) and Lou Williams ($4.5K).

This was a strategy I outlined on Sunday with the Nets. If you are going to take the position of fading a star in a high scoring game, it makes sense to take the direct leverage.

So if you assume for example that guys like Jackson/Lou Will etc. have ceiling games that will likely come at the expense of guys like PG13 or Kawhi – so there is a clear strategic pivot we can lay out here.

The data supports this as well – as players like Jackson and Williams correlate negatively with Kawhi/PG13 and it makes all the sense in the world. Jackson and Lou Will are scoring dependent players and so if they are shooting the ball, it means Kawhi/PG13 are not. We took this approach on Sunday using Joe Harris instead of Kyrie and it worked out really well – can we take the same thing on the Clippers tonight?

The Nets are expected to be fully healthy tonight in regards to their Big 3 – and we have seen thus far that the usage has been heavily focused on Kevin Durant ($10.1K) and Kyrie Irving ($8.8K) when this threesome has shared the court.

However the last game this trio was on the court together, we did see a slight shift between Kyrie and James Harden ($10.9K) where The Beard took 4% more usage than Kyrie as the primary playmaker.

The pricing difference is really staggering when you look at the three so my guess is that the popular approach would be to take one of KD/Harden and pair them with the far cheaper Kyrie.

The fact that Patrick Beverley is out for this game means you take one of the best on-ball defenders off the court for LA and replace them with one of the worst in Reggie Jackson. Getting one of Harden or Kyrie tonight is a must for me – and I am pairing them 100% with Kevin Durant.

What I love about this game is you have multiple paths to stacking it up. You can go heavy stars and scrubs, you can mix and match or use the Clippers mid-range to get your exposure.

Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up

We have may 6 games on this NBA DFS slate tonight but frankly, those games exist in my mind only to find value and to siphon ownership away from the spots I really want to attack.

The Clippers/Nets game is my priority here tonight and I urge you to make it yours as well.

I absolutely LOVE the idea tonight of building around Durant and Harden and then running it back with the Clippers mid-range – Ibaka, Jackson and Williams.

That build leaves you with $4.5K per player for the rest of your build on DK so you really are not having to dumpster dive too far and can build a bit more balance without sacrificing upside.

Enjoy this slate – let’s get in Discord today and chat it up while we dig through our cheat sheets and projections here at Win Daily to set up the start of this NBA DFS season with some big wins!

4 years ago 0 comments

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NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Sunday, January 31

Brian Tulloch 4 years ago

written by Brian Tulloch

Happy Sunday my NBA DFS family – we get a split slate and small slate day as we have 2 early games and just a 4 game Main Slate to dive into on this Sunday Funday – but that does not mean we cannot attack it and build our bankroll!

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown

The main slate today is simple – well, at least in terms of which game to attack – it all starts and ends with Brooklyn Nets and Washington Wizards.

This game is a DFS goldmine – a massive 245+ total, 20 points higher than any other game, featuring the highest projected pace and two teams that believe defense is optional.

The Wizards rank as the third worst defensive team in the NBA this season while Brooklyn ranks bottom three over the last 10 games, coinciding with the James Harden trade.

We have a high total, high pace, and no defense – all-around some serious star power – so, getting this game right is the most critical aspect of today.

The tricky part in this game is that we lack the value we need to stack the stars here and so it means we have to be strategic in which big spends we use from this game.

Now if James Harden ($10.6K) were to miss this game, officially questionable with a thigh injury, it would open up a much clearer path for the Brooklyn side of this game. Obviously, Harden being out would be a huge boost to the ceiling of both Kyrie Irving ($9.3K) and Kevin Durant ($10.1K) and it would open up some fringe value as it did on Friday Night with guys like Bruce Brown and TLC, who both remain under $4K.

The Wizards side has the obvious star power duo in Bradley Beal ($10.2K) and Russell Westbrook ($9K). The tricky part with Washington is that they are starting to get back to full healthy so the mid-range and fringe plays become far more risky especially as many of them (Rui, Bertans etc) are coming off a long COVID related lay-off.

Unfortunately, just clicking on Beal/Westbrook and Durant/Irving is not possible today – like DraftKings made it mathematically impossible. So how do you prioritize the stars here.

For me, the two pieces I am locked in on are Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. Durant has been the highest FP/M piece for the Nets with Harden off the court and with his price ticked down while Irving has ticked up – I think paying the slight premium for KD is the best use of our salary.

Westbrook at $9K is just too cheap – he played 27 minutes last game and that was with him being ejected with 10 minutes remaining so the 30+ minutes seem like a lock here tonight.

The question of the third star is really where you need to make a tough choice – is it Beal or Kyrie OR even Harden if he does play?

I will say – I find myself landing on Bradley Beal ($10.2K) despite the inflated price really as it relates to how I want to attack the Wizards. With the Wizards fringe players all getting healthy and splitting minutes, I feel like your throwing darts and hoping you hit your secondary Washington exposure correctly. Instead – can we just take the approach of going with Westbrook AND Beal and getting essentially all the usage and fantasy production? This duo combined for 105 DK points in their only other meeting versus Brooklyn this season so the ceiling is obvious.

Now this means we have to fade a second Brooklyn star – but I would argue, we have more paths to attack with the secondary options on the Nets especially if Harden does sit.

Joe Harris ($5.5K) is the option I am most interested in running alongside Durant as his ability to spread the floor and rack up three-points could give him a ceiling path tonight. The Wizards rank 22 out of 30 NBA teams this season in 3P% allowed and rank as the second-worst team overall in FG% allowed. Harris has the ability to get to 6X value with his shooting alone ( he hit 33 DK points against Miami just a few days ago on 7 threes made) and so if he has that kind of efficiency tonight and gets you ANY peripheral upside – you could get a GPP game changer.

Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up

The biggest thing we need to watch today is the status of James Harden and Joel Embiid.

Harden missing this game would give a massive boost to the fringe Nets like Harris, Bruce Brown and TLC. Embiid being out means we could get serious Center value with Dwight Howard and Tony Bradley both under $4K.

The other spot we may get for value is in Minnesota with KAT out once again and Naz Reid questionable. The lack of big men against a massive Cavs frontcourt means that guys like Ed Davis and Jaden McDaniels will be pushed to take on more minutes at $3K price points. Oh and by the way – it is McDaniels birthday today – so you know what to do!

Enjoy this slate – let’s get in Discord today and chat it up while we dig through our cheat sheets and projections here at Win Daily to set up the start of this NBA DFS season with some big wins!

4 years ago 0 comments

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Where do we start?

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So where do we start?

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