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Boston Red Sox

MLB DFS Aces and Stacks (July 7)

Welcome to Friday’s edition of Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.

It’s Friday and that means we have a full slate of games to work through for our MLB DFS lineups. Tonight’s slate is looking to be a fun one. We get to pick on the Brewers again with a solid lefty and we also have some very questionable pitchers that I’ll be more than happy to pick on with some bats.

Let’s dig and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Andrew Abbott vs. Milwaukee Brewers

My strategy to pick on the Brewers with lefties this season has mostly been a successful one. We’ve seen pitchers like Rich Hill do well against them. Tonight they’ll actually face a dominant lefty and this has the makings for a monster night for the young Cincy southpaw. Over the last month, Abbott has been splendid. He’s thrown to a 1.44 ERA, all while having a K rate over 30%.

He’ll face off tonight vs. a Brewers team that is striking out close to 28% of the time vs. lefties this season. So we have a strikeout pitcher on the mound facing a team that has a high propensity to strike out. This has ceiling game written all over it! Abbott will be a lock in all of my lineups tonight.

Dylan Cease vs. St. Louis Cardinals

It gives me some solace knowing that the award for the most disappointing team this season goes to the Cardinals and not my New York Mets. Through 87 games, the Cardinals are a staggering 15 games under .500. After tonight, it will more than likely be 16 games. The Cardinals will have the daunting task of facing off against Dylan Cease. While his last outing was subpar, prior to that we had finally started to see the Dylan Cease of old. He had amassed 36 strikeouts over 4 games.

I’ll take that level of strikeout upside every day of the week. The Cardinals aren’t a high-strikeout team, but facing off against Cease tonight there should be some extra K’s in there for us. Plus, Cease is only $8.5k tonight. We’ll be getting a pitcher that has a 35% k rate over the last month for less than $9k. Sign me up.

Other pitchers I’ll have interest in tonight will be Hunter Brown vs. Seattle, Brenna Bernardino vs. Oakland, and Justin Verlander vs. San Diego. That said, I’m not straying too far from Abbott/Cease tonight. For me, they are the clear favorites in terms of pitchers tonight.

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

New York Yankees vs. Jameson Taillon

The New York Yankees probably hit rock bottom last night with their blowout loss to the Orioles. Things start fresh for them today as Carlos Rodon makes his Yankees debut. More importantly for us though, they also get a very tasty matchup tonight vs. their former teammate in Jameson Taillon. Taillon has been an absolute mess during his time in Chicago.

Over the last month, he’s been dreadful. A 6.75 ERA, 8 homers allowed, and 14 barrels allowed. All of this in just 26 innings of work. If ever there was a slump-buster type of matchup for this Yankees team, it’s Jameson Taillon. With Taillon, we want to prioritize any and all lefties. They have just massive numbers vs. him this season.

I’m going to lock in Anthony Rizzo here. Rizzo has been very quiet of late. His power has all but been zapped and he’s been mostly a singles and doubles hitter over the last month. That changes big time tonight. He’s my home run call of the night. Taillon is giving up a .346 ISO to lefties. If ever there was a great get-right spot for Rizzo, it’s this. He’s not going to get better opportunities than this.

I’ll also look to include Billy McKinney as a value play. He should be in there as a lefty bat and he’s only $2.1k tonight. Other Yankees bats I like tonight will be Giancarlo Stanton, Harrison Bader, and Anthony Volpe. All three should do well in this matchup.

Boston Red Sox vs. Luis Medina

It’s been a while since I picked on the Oakland Athletics. That changes tonight. Luis Medina has been really struggling with his command. He’s walked 12 hitters over his last 2 outings. Somehow though, he’s only allowed 4 ER over those outings. At some point, putting that many runners on with free passes is going to come back and bite you. It’s going to bite him tonight.

If the Red Sox can be patient tonight, they have the potential to put up a very big number. Vegas absolutely loves them as they have a 6 run total so far. I fully expect them to get to that number tonight. With Medina, I’m not going to be overly worried about splits. He’s been pretty bad vs. both sides of the plate this season.

I’ll start out my Red Sox stack with their 3 best hitters, Rafael Devers, Masataka Yoshida, and Justin Turner. This is one of the better spots that Rafael Devers will see all year. It also helps that he’s coming into this game swinging a pretty good stick. Over the last week, Devers has 9 hits in his last 24 AB. His OPS Is also over 1.000 during that stretch. I could definitely see Devers taking Medina deep tonight.

Another Red Sox hitter swinging well right now is Yoshida. He’s 11 for his last 20 and has a 1.321 over those ABs. A 3-4 punch of Devers and Yoshida has a world of upside tonight. Other Red Sox bats I like here will be Jarren Duran, Triston Casas, and Alex Verdugo.

Other stacks I like tonight will be the Guardians vs. Daniel Lynch, Twins vs. Cole Irvin, and the Rangers v. Trevor Williams. The Rangers are a close call to my top 2 stacks. They have immense upside every single night out.

MLB DFS Summary

We have a fun Friday slate tonight. There are a plethora of options on the mound and at bat. I laid out my top options and I will be sticking with them in all my lineups.

Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

2 years ago 0 comments

MLB DFS Aces & Stacks (May 26)

Joel Bartilotta 2 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to Friday’s edition of Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.

It’s Full Slate Friday as we have a massive 12-game slate of MLB DFS tonight. With so many teams in action we’ll have a lot of different options both on the pitching front and stacking front. At first glance, this is shaping up to be an extremely fun-looking slate.

Let’s dig and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Hunter Brown vs. Oakland Athletics

Next up on the pick on Oakland train are the Houston Astros. While the Astros offense has been non-existent of late that’s of little concern to me here as we’ll be picking on them with the Astros rookie pitcher Hunter Brown. Brown has been extremely solid this season, pitching to a 3.20 ERA, and has 56 K’s in 50 innings of work.

Over his last 5 outings, Brown has reached at least 20 DK points in 3 of them. With a matchup today against a projected lineup that has a 25% k rate vs. righties this season, there’s definitely some upside for the young hurler. The projected lineup for the A’s tonight also has poor offensive metrics vs. righties, with just a .292 wOBA vs. them. I’ll be rocking Brown everywhere tonight.

Kevin Gausman vs. Minnesota Twins

Kevin Gausman has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season. His ERA for the year is just a shade north of 3 and he has 81 K’s compared to just 11 walks. Over his last 6 starts he’s been over 27.5 DK 4 times. The only struggles were against the Red Sox and Orioles. Even in that Orioles game, a top team in baseball, he was able to get 17 points.

He’ll face off against a Twins team that in all honesty has an average lineup. They are just 2 games over .500 playing in a division where they are the only team over .500. He’s at one of his lowest price points that we’ve seen over the last month at $10.3k. Because of that, I’m all over him tonight. Pairing him with Hunter Brown gives us a double aces combo this evening that has skies the limit potential.

Alex Wood vs. Milwaukee Brewers

This is a wild card pick for me tonight. Alex Wood hasn’t pitched overly well this season, but he also hasn’t pitched much as he’s made just 6 starts. This is more matchup based for me tonight. The Brewers have been dreadful vs. lefties this season. The projected lineup tonight has just a .293 wOBA and a .147 ISO vs. lefties. They also have a 26% k rate.

They’ve been attacked against lefties all season and tonight will be no different, even though it’s Alex Wood. He’s far from safe, but there’s definitely some upside tonight with Alex Wood and his $6.3k salary.

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Boston Red Sox vs. Brandon Pfaadt

The Red Sox get a strong matchup tonight vs. Brandon Pfaadt. Pfaadt has made 4 starts in his big league career, with 3 of them being clunkers. Against the Rangers he gave up 7 in 4, against Miami he gave up 6 in 5, and against the Pirates, he gave up 3 in 5. The only game he really pitched well in was against an average Giants lineup.

Through his first 20 innings in the big leagues, Pfaadt has given up 7 homers and 10 barrels. I’m not going to be overly concerned with splits as both sides of the plate have been hammering. He’s going to have his hands very full tonight against a very good Red Sox lineup, even though they’ve been quiet for the last week or so.

I’m striving for some power with this stack so I’m going to go with the 4 guys that have some really solid numbers vs. righties this season. Alex Verdugo, Masataka Yoshida, Rafael Devers, and Jarren Duran all have ISO’s over .200 this season and wOBA’s well into the mid .300’s. They are all set to have really solid days in what should on paper be a plus matchup.

I will add though that the Red Sox bats are mostly cold so this stack does come with a level of risk. That said, with how poorly that Pfaadt has mostly pitched in the bigs, this seems like a great get-right spot for most of these guys. If you want to go for value, guys like Valdez, Casas, and McGuire will get you that at the bottom of the lineup.

Washington Nationals vs. Jordan Lyles

Jordan Lyles has been a lister for quite some time. He’s a pitcher that has historically given up just a ton of home runs. This year has been no different for the journeyman. His 2.22 HR/9 is the highest that it has been in his entire career. He’s already given up 14 in just 56 innings of work. That’s compared to the 26 he gave up last year in nearly 180 innings of work. He’s struggling this season and we want to attack him as much as possible, even with an inferior Nationals lineup.

The first guy I’m going to here is going to be their leadoff hitter, Lane Thomas. Thomas had himself a really strong last week of baseball. Over his last 24 AB, he’s produced 9 hits, 2 of which left the ballpark. He also combined for 11 runs and RBI over that stretch. Another guy in this lineup that has had a solid stretch of baseball is Jeimer Candelario. He’s produced 7 hits in his last 24 AB and has a .846 OPS.

Other bats that I’ll have interest in this stack are going to be Dominic Smith, Joey Meneses, and Corey Dickerson. Nothing in life is guaranteed, but one of these guys is going deep vs. a pitcher that is giving up homers at an epic pace.

I don’t normally write up Coors lineups, but I really like the Mets tonight too. Yes, I’m a Mets fan but they showed their potential for run-scoring last night when they put 10 in rather poor hitting conditions. Pete Alonso seemingly homers every game as he’s up to 19 now. Seabold has given up worse numbers to righties this season so feel free to load up on Alonso, Alvarez, and hopefully Vientos if Buck puts him in there. Other stacks tonight are the Yankees vs. Joe Musgrove and Rangers vs. Grayson Rodriguez.

MLB DFS Summary

This is going to be a fun slate with lots of options on both fronts. There will be plenty of value to get double aces tonight as well.

Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.

2 years ago 0 comments

MLB

MLB DFS Aces & Stacks (Apr. 3)

Joel Bartilotta 2 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to Monday edition of Aces and Bases for the 2023 season, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.

Tonight we have a nice-sized 11-game slate of MLB DFS to navigate through. We’re not quite through the first rotation of most team’s staff. That means pitching will be kind of blah tonight as we are essentially at the back end of most rotations. The good is that it means plenty of offense. The bad, is that it means pitching will be really tough to nail down.

Let’s dig and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Hunter Brown vs. Detroit Tigers

The Houston Astros will turn the ball over to top prospect Hunter Brown tonight. In a small cup of tea last year, Brown was really good. In his 20 innings of work, Brown struck out 27.5% of the batters he faced and did a nice job of limiting hard contact as hitters had a sub-30 % hard-hit rate vs. him. While we can’t expect him to continue with the .89 ERA that he had last year, he did pitch to an xFIP under 3 last season. Brown also had a phenomenal chase rate of nearly 32% last season. Of all the pitchers throwing today, no one outside of Matthew Boyd and his 13 innings of work last year had more hitters chasing.

This is just not a good Tigers lineup and one that Brown should easily navigate through. Through the first 3 games of the season, this Tigers lineup has scored just 3 runs. Not 4, not 5, not 6, just 3 runs. They are awful and I feel bad that Miguel Cabrera’s last season in baseball will be part of this atrocious lineup. Houston and Brown are huge favorites tonight. While nothing is guaranteed, feel confident throwing out Brown tonight.

Drew Rasmussen vs. Washington Nationals

Yes, pitching is so bad that the next pitcher I’m recommending is Drew Rasmussen. Rasmussen isn’t actually that bad of a pitcher, he’s actually pretty good. He just doesn’t strike many out. He had a K rate in 2022 of just over 21%. That’s not ideal for MLB DFS as K’s are king. That said, pitching is bad tonight and the pitchers that actually did have high K rates last year are not in good matchups.

While Rasmussen won’t get many K’s tonight, he should be able to do a great of limiting damage. This Nationals lineup has been bad to start the year. Through their first 3 games, they’ve scored just 7 runs for an average of just 2 per game. Tampa is one of the bigger favorites on the board. The K’s won’t be there for him tonight, but Rasmussen should be able to go long enough in this one to get the W and pay off his $8.1k DK salary tonight.

Nestor Cortes vs. Philadelphia Phillies

This is a high-risk/potentially high-reward pick. Nestor Cortes had by far the best season of his career in 2022. He set career highs in wins, innings pitched, ERA, and xFIP. Basically any meaningful stat, Cortes improved last year. He does a great job of throwing hitters off with his quirky mechanics.

This is a really good Phillies lineup, but not quite the lineup they expected to have to start the year. Harper is out recovering from TJ surgery and Hoskins is out for the year after tearing his ACL at the end of Spring Training. Cortes should be able to neutralize Schwarber tonight as he’s absolutely dominant vs. lefties. This is low-key a really good spot for Cortes and he should be able to give the Phillies hitters a ton of fits tonight. He’s risky, but could potentially be the highest-scoring pitcher on the night.

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Washington Nationals

The Tampa Bay Rays get to take on journeyman starter Trevor Williams. Williams isn’t an awful pitcher, but he’s also not a good pitcher. He’s an average one at best and one that should struggle with this Tampa lineup tonight. Williams is a flyball pitcher and if he’s off his game just a smidge tonight, there should be some homers tonight in DC as the weather should be perfect for early April baseball.

Core: My Tampa core will be built around Wander Franco and Randy Arozarena. Franco is off to a red-hot start to the 2023 campaign. Through his first 11 AB, Franco has 7 hits. Of those 7, 4 have been for extra-base hits. This is the type of environment tonight where he should continue with this early success in the year. I also really like Aroz here. Through his first 3 games, Aroz has already scored 4 runs, while driving in 3. He’s as big of a part of this offense as anyone. These 2 guys should dominate tonight

Secondary/Value: Other guys I really like in this lineup tonight will be both Brandon and Josh Lowe, Yandy Diaz, and Jose Siri. All of these guys have been productive to start the year. Both Josh Lowe and Jose Siri make for excellent value plays as they are both under $3k on DK tonight.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Ryan Feltner

The Dodgers get one of the best matchups on the board tonight. In nearly 100 innings in 2022, Feltner really struggled. Feltner’s final ERA in 2022 was pushing 6 at 5.83. While ERA isn’t an end-all, it does show that a pitcher struggled. He also gave up a massive hard-hit rate at nearly 36%. That’s one of the worst marks of anyone on the hill tonight and that says a lot considering what we’re working with. Feltner was pretty much split-neutral in 2022 so I’m not going to be overly concerned with worrying about what side of the plate to attack him with.

Core: My Core with the Dodgers tonight will be the 2 guys that hit at the top of the lineup and are 2 of the best hitters in the game, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman. Neither guy has really blown us out of the water yet, but their day is coming and that will be today in what is a cake matchup for them. Freeman is my favorite of the two though if you can only afford one of them. He gets the platoon advantage tonight and has immense upside tonight.

Secondary/Value: Other bats I like here will be Will Smith, David Peralta, and JD Martinez. Will Smith is a lot more than I normally like to spend on catchers, but he’s one of the best-hitting catchers in the game and has started out the season strong with 5 RBI and 5 hits in his first 11 AB. He also has multiple extra-base hits. Again, he’s pricey, but you could do a whole lot worse with $5k.

Boston Red Sox vs. Johan Oviedo

The Boston Red Sox offense has started out extremely strong this season. Through 3 games against the Orioles’ meager pitching staff, they were able to put up 23 runs. They’ll now get to face another below-average staff in the Pittsburgh Pirates. Expect more runs from them and expect them often. Tonight they’ll face off against Johan Oviedo. While Oviedo wasn’t awful last season, he has shown in his 2 previous stints in the bigs with the Cards that he struggles to get big leaguers out. I’m going to fully attack him tonight.

Core: My core with the Red Sox is going to be very clear. Adam Duvall, Alex Verdugo, Justin Turner, and Rafael Devers. All 4 guys are off to hot starts, with Duvall, Devers, and Turner all hitting over .400 to start the year. Outside of Devers, this stack is extremely affordable tonight. Both Turner and Duvall are under $4k tonight. They don’t get the platoon advantage, but they are near locks in my lineup.

Secondary/Value: The other 2 bats I like here will be Enrique Hernandez and Masataka Yoshida. Neither guy is a necessity, but if you can fit them in go for it as there should be some runs scored by the Red Sox tonight.

MLB DFS Summary

We have our first Monday slate of the year and it’s going to be a doozy. There are limited pitching options but there will be plenty of options for offense. Expect a high-scoring slate tonight.

Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.

2 years ago 0 comments

MLB

MLB DFS Aces & Stacks (Sept. 29)

Joel Bartilotta 3 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Thursday edition of the Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.

Today we have a split slate of games, with both being small 4-game slates of MLB DFS. This article will highlight the early slate. For info about the late slate, make sure to drop into discord where we’ll be talking about plays for it later today.

Let’s dig in and see if we can find some stacks to use today!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Ranger Suarez vs. Chicago Cubs

I should lead by saying that pitching is absolutely atrocious on this early slate. Every pitcher has the ability to put up single digits today. Ranger Suarez does however appear to be one of the safer options on the mound. The Cubs aren’t a very good team. But this is the time of year when “kids” are in the lineup playing for their spot on next year’s roster. This same Cubs team put up a 4 spot on Aaron Nola last night and gave him the big fat L.

That said, this is also a Cubs team that is not very good against lefties. The projected lineup tonight has just a .090 ISO vs. lefties over the last month and a K rate over 28%. Suarez doesn’t have much K upside, but he does have what is probably the highest floor of any pitcher this afternoon. Normally we chase ceilings, but on a day with options like we have today, I’m going to go with the safety net.

Jonathan Heasley vs. Detroit Tigers

This pick makes me throw up a little bit in my mouth. That said, Heasley has actually been pitching really well of late. He’s been doing a great job of limiting any hard contact as his hard-hit rate is just 26% over the last month. That’s one of the best marks of any pitcher on the hill this afternoon. He’s also been in double-digit DK points in 5 of his last 7 outings.

It also helps that he draws a great matchup against a bad Tigers team. The projected lineup today has just a .149 ISO and a .291 wOBA against righties over the last month. This is far from a safe pick, but he’s been pitching well and gets a great matchup. Being only $7.1k on DK today makes me a little more comfortable using him as an SP2 today.

Lucas Giolito vs. Minnesota Twins

The one pitcher on this afternoon’s slate with any type of strikeout upside is Lucas Giolito. Over the last month, he has had a 27% K rate. The next pitcher on the list is Javier Assad at just 22%. While the year hasn’t been great for Gio, his xFIP of 3.66 tells us that a lot of it has just been bad luck for Gio.

He has a career-high BABIP of .352. His next closest season is .273. He is however coming into this off of a 9-strikeout performance against the Tigers, so his confidence is probably pretty high. Those 9 k’s were the most he’s had in a game since May. I will more than likely go with a combo of Suarez and Heasley, but if you want to feel frisky today Gio is your guy.

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Javier Assad

We’re at a weird time of the year. Many teams have been eliminated and only a handful of teams have anything to play for. The Phillies are one of the few that have a reason to play hard right now. Their loss to the Cubs last night trimmed their Wild Card lead over the Brewers to just a half-game. They are in a must-win mode right now. Luckily for them, they get a soft matchup vs. Javier Assad today.

The key for the Phillies today will be to remain patient at the plate. Assad has a ton of issues with walks of late, as evidenced by his 5.4 BB/9 over the last month. In his last 3 starts, he’s given up a combined 10 walks while striking out 11. Not exactly a great ratio. With Assad, we’ll want to attack him with lefties. Lefties have a .469 slugging % and a .363 wOBA. Both are significantly higher than what righties have done against him.

Core/Value: My Phillies core this afternoon will consist of Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, and Brandon Marsh. My favorite here is by far Bryce Harper. Assad throws his cutter to lefties around 36% of the time. That’s his most heavily used pitch against them. This is a pitch that Harper has crushed. Over the last several seasons, Harper has a .511 ISO and a .506 wOBA vs. righty cutters. It’s been a few days since Harper last homered and that very well could change today with how well he lines up with Assad.

While Marsh doesn’t have the power numbers against cutters that Harper has, he’s no slouch against them as he has a .440 wOBA vs. righty cutters. He’s just $2.1k today and is a great value.

Secondary Pieces: Other bats I’ll look to include here this afternoon will be Rhys Hoskins and Alec Bohm.

Chicago White Sox vs. Louie Varland

I typically reserve using the White Sox against lefties but they get a really nice matchup today. Varland has really been getting smacked around since getting called up to the big leagues. In just 16 innings of work Varland has given up 4 homers and 5 barrels. His hard-hit rate against is 41% and his flyball rate is over 45%. With both of those numbers being over 40%, it’s really a recipe for complete disaster.

So far in his big league career, it’s been the righties that have given him the most heartbreak. Righties have a .618 slugging % vs. him and a .418 wOBA. Both numbers are extremely high and he’s going to face a righty dominant lineup today. I’m not going to ignore the lefties there though because they still have a .467 slugging % vs. him.

Core: My core with the White Sox today starts and ends with Eloy Jimenez. Anytime there’s a reverse splits pitcher going against Jimenez I pounce on the opportunity to use him. He’s been phenomenal vs. righties this season, hitting over .300 and slugging over .500. He’s gone hitless in his last 2 games, but that changes today.

Secondary/Value: After locking in Jimenez, I’m going to load up on bats like Elvis Andrus, Jose Abreu, and Gavin Sheets. This has Gavin Sheets home run day written all over it. Sheets has a .262 ISO against righties over the past month and a .303 wOBA. I normally pick my spots with Sheets and this is one of the spots I really like him in. It also helps that Sheets is just $2.5k on DK this afternoon. He is one of my favorite value pieces of the day.

Boston Red Sox vs. Mike Baumann

I will more than likely be sticking with the Phillies and White Sox, but the Red Sox are also in a good spot today. My concern with the Red Sox though is that Baumann is an extreme groundball pitcher. If you go here, you’ll want to go full stack or no stack. Home run chasing in this matchup will be extremely difficult against a pitcher that has a nearly 56% groundball rate, and one that climbs to over 80% against lefties.

That said, Baumann also gives up a ton of hard contact. His hard-hit rate over the last month is over 44%, by far the most of any pitcher on this afternoon’s slate. Lefties, while hitting a ton of grounders against him, have a hard-hit rate of over 57% against him.

Core: My Red Sox core today will start with Alex Verdugo, Rafael Devers, and Xander Bogaerts. Verdugo is really hot at the plate right now. He had another 2 hits in last night’s game, one of which left the park. He has hits in 8 straight games and very well could make it 9 today. Against righties over the last month, he has a .361 wOBA and a .208 ISO. Up next will be Devers.

Devers is also swinging a hot stick right now, with 6 hits in 12 AB in this series. He only has 2 AB vs. Baumann but is 2 for 2. He’s been of the Red Sox’s best hitters all year and should have a solid day at the plate today.

Value: I also really like Rob Refsndyer and Connor Wong here for value. Both guys are priced under $3k today and have been extremely productive of late. They should help you fit any bats you want today.

MLB DFS Summary

Other MLB DFS stacks I like today will be the Twins vs. Giolito if you don’t use him and the Royals vs. Eduardo Rodriguez. Also, if you aren’t using Heasley, stack against him with some Tigers.

Make sure to check out our Home Run Model. And Also make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.

3 years ago 0 comments

MLB Premium

MLB DFS Aces & Stacks (Sept. 28)

Joel Bartilotta 3 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Wednesday edition of the Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.

Tonight we have a massive 12-game slate of MLB DFS tonight. In case you haven’t noticed, we’re at the point in the season where things have gotten wonky. Carlos Carrasco was in a smash spot last night and was negative DK points. The White Sox were 2-hit last night by Baily Ober. And the Rangers bullpen was able to wipe the floor with the Mariners.

Let’s dig in and see if we can find some stacks to use today!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Zac Gallen vs. Houston Astros

The matchup isn’t great for Gallen tonight as the Astros are one of the top lineups in the league. That said, we thought the same thing about his matchup in his last outing vs. the Dodgers and he went on to pitch 8 innings of 1-run ball while striking out 13. Zac Gallen is the real deal folks. All of his metrics are top-tier.

He gets ahead of most hitters with a 67.5% first strike percentage and has a chase rate of nearly 33%. His 35.9% k rate over the last month is top of any pitcher on the hill tonight. He’s been lights out over the last few months. There’s definitely a risk in using him as an SP1 tonight, but there’s also a ton of upside for him with the way he’s pitching right now.

Justin Verlander vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

Spot starter Luis Garcia was able to hold the Diamondbacks in check last night. There’s absolutely no reason to think that Justin Verlander can’t do the same tonight as he’s in a way different class than Garcia. Since coming off the IL, Verlander has only thrown 11 innings. Over those 11 innings, he was able to K 13 batters and give up just 2 ER.

Although the Orioles were able to get 6 hits off of him in 6 innings last outing, most of those hits were just dumb luck as they were held to a 27% hard-hit rate in the game. He was up to 93 pitches in his last outing so I don’t think we’ll need to worry so much about a pitch count with Verlander. This is a solid spot tonight for him tonight

Brandon Woodruff vs. St. Louis Cardinals

We have another stud pitcher in a not-so-great spot with Brandon Woodruff facing off against the Cardinals. Woodruff has been lights out over the last month though. His K rate is up to 32% over that stretch and he has just a 2.76 ERA. That 2.76 is right in line with his 2.94 xFIP. Woodruff has also been doing a great job in limiting hard contact as hitters have a sub-30 % hard-hit rate vs. him over the last 30 days.

While the matchup is tough, Vegas really likes Woodruff as they have the Cards with an IRT of just 3.22 tonight. The biggest downside for the Woodruff thought tonight will be that the Cardinals do not strike out much vs. righties. Over the last month, the projected lineup has just a 17% K rate vs. righties. That somewhat puts a limit on his ceiling tonight.

Other starters I do like tonight will be Jose Quintana vs. the Brewers. The Brewers are very susceptible to lefties and Quintana is pitching well. I also like George Kirby vs. the Rangers. The Rangers are way better vs. lefties. I’d take his last outing with a grain of salt. The Athletics did the same thing to Jacob Degrom a few days later. Aaron Nola vs. the Cubs is a solid spot as well. As you can see, pitching is loaded tonight.

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Atlanta Braves vs. Josiah Gray

The Nationals are doing absolutely nothing to help my Mets win the NL East. So far in this series, the Braves have put 8 runs in both games. There’s no reason, and I mean no reason with Gray on the mound tonight, to believe they can’t do it again in game 3 of this series. One of the centerpieces of the Scherzer/Turner to the Dodgers trade, Gray just hasn’t pitched well. He’s coming off a stretch that has seen him give up at least 4 ER in 4 consecutive starts. The last 2 of those games were against the star-studded lineup we call the Miami Marlins.

Throughout his brief career, the biggest struggle for Gray has been the ability to keep the ball in the ballpark. This season he has an HR/9 of 2.33. Anything over 2 is just horrendous. He’s the type of pitcher you can go home run hunting off of. While he’s bad to both sides of the plate, we really want to grab any and all lefties here. They have a .357 ISO against him over the last month and a .492 wOBA. 21 of the 37 homers he’s given up this season have been to lefties.

Core/Value: Knowing all of that, I’m starting out my Braves core with Eddie Rosario, Michael Harris, and Matt Olson. Olson is finally starting to show some signs of life at the plate. He has hits in 3 consecutive games and even threw in a walk last night. This is the type of spot that he should continue to fight his way out of the wet paper bag that he’s been in for quite some time.

Next up is Michael Harris. He may be my favorite bat of the night and will be a lock in all of my lineups. He’s coming into this one hot, with 7 hits over his last 4 games. There’s an excellent chance that he takes Gray very deep tonight. Rosario is the value here and it also happens to be his birthday. We always play the birthday narrative, especially when in a matchup like this.

Secondary Pieces: Other bats I’ll look to include here tonight will be Ronald Acuna, Austin Riley, and Travis d’Arnaud. All three have wOBA’s over .350 vs. righties over the last month. Acuna is heating up and is coming into this off of a 2 homer game last night. He’s pricey tonight over $6.1k. I’m not going to force him in, but he’s a solid play. Marcell Ozuna is also a solid value play here. He’s under $3k on DK and will help you fit some of the more expensive bats.

Los Angeles Angels vs. Adrian Martinez

Adrian Martinez is currently locked into one of his worst stretches of pitching this season. Over his last 3 starts, Martinez has allowed 16 ER in a little under 14 innings of work. He’s also given up 6 homers during those 3 games, 4 coming against the Astros in a single game. While the Angels are nowhere near as strong of a lineup as the Astros, they have some major weapons that can do some damage tonight.

With this stack, I’m not going to be overly concerned with splits. Both sides of the plate have slugging %’s over .500 against Martinez. He’s given up 6 homers to both sides of the plates as well.

Core: The core of any Angels stack starts with Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani. Both guys stand solid chances to homer tonight. Martinez throws his sinker 50% of the time to lefties. This is a pitch that Ohtani crushes. Over the last few years, Ohtani has a .372 ISO and a .531 wOBA against righty sinkers. He should absolutely smash tonight.

There’s not much that needs to be said about Mike Trout. He’s the best hitter in the game when healthy and he’s healthy. Both of these guys will be tough to fit together. My lean is Ohtani right now.

Secondary/Value: Other bats to include here will be Taylor Ward, Mike Ford, and Mickey Moniak. Both Ford and Moniak are min priced on DK tonight and open up a world of opportunities for us. They also have, albeit a limited sample size, great numbers vs. righty sinkers.

Boston Red Sox vs. Dean Kremer

This Orioles/Red Sox series has been something, hasn’t it? It’s been an absolute gold mine for MLB DFS. The 2 teams have combined for 44 runs across the 2 games so far. The Red Sox were on the better end last night after scoring 13. The wild scoring should continue tonight with Dean Kremer and Rich Hill on the mound.

I do like the Red Sox better though as the Orioles haven’t been great against lefties. While the ERA has been low for Kremer over the last month, the xFIP is nearly 2 runs higher at 4.44. He’s due for some regression and it could come tonight against a hot Red Sox lineup.

Core/Value: With my Red Sox core tonight I’ll look to lock in Triston Casas, Alex Verdugo, and Rafael Devers. All three of these hitters will have the platoon advantage tonight and are the hottest hitters in this Red Sox lineup right now. Let’s start with Casas. Casas is super-hot right now. He has homered in 3 of his last 6 games and had the best game of his young career last night, going 3-4 with a homer and 2 RBI.

Devers is also hot at the plate right now. He has 5 hits in this series in 9 AB. He’s also driven in 3 runs during the series. He’s homered off of Kremer before and I wouldn’t be shocked if he did it again tonight.

Value: Other bats I like here are going to be Reese McGuire and Rob Refsnyder. Both guys are cheap tonight, with McGuire at $2.6k and Refsndyer at just $2.5k. Refsnyder is having a solid series, with 4 RBI and 4 hits.

MLB DFS Summary

Other MLB DFS stacks I really like tonight will the Mets vs. Luzardo and Orioles vs. Dick Mountain.

Make sure to check out our Home Run Model. And Also make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.

3 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS Aces & Stacks (Sept. 26)

Joel Bartilotta 3 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Monday edition of the Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.

Tonight we have a small 4-game slate of MLB DFS tonight. With so few teams on the schedule, we’ll be extremely limited with our options. Pitching, for all intents and purposes, is absolutely gross tonight. If you were to take a slate off, pick tonight. If you do play, play light.

Let’s dig in and see if we can find some stacks to use today!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Bryce Elder vs. Washington Nationals

The rookie pitcher for the Braves will be making the eighth start of his career tonight. So far, the results have been very good for the 23-year-old. Over his last 3 starts, he’s been brilliant. He’s allowed just 2 ER over 18 innings of work and has struck out 22 hitters.

One of those starts came recently against this same Nationals team and he was able to walk right through them. While it’s always tough to face a team a second straight time, our options are limited right now and Elder has been really good. I’m willing to roll the dice on such a short slate on him.

Luis Severino vs. Toronto Blue Jays

Luis Severino made his first inning last week in more than 2 months. He looked extremely sharp vs. the Pirates, going 5 strong while striking out 6 and allowing just 1 ER on 2 hits. While the Blue Jays are a much tougher opponent than the Pirates, Severino has been strong all year when healthy. His K/9 is just about at 10 and he has an xFIP and ERA right under 3.40.

The Blue Jays are going to be a tough draw for Severino, but the Blue Jays have shown at times this season to have nights where they simply just don’t show up. Severino also lines up well with the Blue Jays. He throws his slider around 45% of the time to righties and he’ll face a lineup filled with righties tonight. Outside of Bichette, all of the regulars in this lineup have a whiff rate over 30% to righty sliders. There could be a lot of upside tonight for Severino, more than the risk hopefully.

Roansy Contreras vs. Cincinnati Reds

I told you that pitching was rough tonight didn’t I? The Pirates’ 22-year-old right-hander will be making his 17^th start of the season tonight. That’s the most that he’s had in any season since A ball in 2019. The Pirates have been mostly capping him at 5-6 innings and we can’t expect tonight to be any different. With options so limited tonight, I’m willing to go with an abbreviated start from him over some of the other gems this slate brings us.

This will be start number 3 vs. the Reds so far this season. In his first 2 starts, Contreras was pretty solid, allowing just 2 ER and striking out 10 over 9 innings of work. At $7.5k tonight on DK, we aren’t going to need too much from him to get value. He’s been in double-digit points on DK in 6 consecutive starts. If he can do that again tonight, I’ll be content.

A case could also be made for Chase Anderson tonight. He’s pitched extremely well over his last 3 starts, allowing just 4 ER. He’s also just $6.3k on DK tonight.

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Atlanta Braves vs. Corey Abbott

The Braves get arguably the best matchup tonight as they take on Corey Abbott. Abbott is coming into this game off one of his poorer starts of the year. Against the Braves a week ago, he allowed 4 ER in just 4 innings of work. In that start, and what really has me going back to this spot, he gave up a 50% hard-hit rate and 2 barrels.

Through the first handful of appearances for Abbott, he had been doing a good job of only allowing soft to medium contact. That has really shifted of late. In his last 3 appearances, he’s allowed 75%, 54%, and 50% hard-hit rates. In his last 14 innings of work, he’s given up 6 barrels and 3 homers. Hitters are now seeing him incredibly well. We’ll want to kick off our Braves stack with lefties. They have a .519 slugging % vs. him and a .384 wOBA. That said, righties have a .452 slugging % vs. him too, so we won’t want to ignore them.

Core/Value: I’m starting out my Braves core with Eddie Rosario, Michael Harris, and Matt Olson. Of the 3, Harris is going to be my favorite. He’s been tormenting righties over the last month as he has a .503 wOBA and a .322 ISO. He’s also been solid vs. them all season. His average against them this season is up to .330 with 17 homers.

Up next is Eddie Rosario. Rosario has been playing sparingly and my hope is that he’s in the lineup today. He’s just $2.5k on DK and in a matchup he should do well in. When in the lineup recently, he’s been good. He has hits in 4 straight, including a 2 hit performance yesterday vs. the Phillies.

With Olson, there’s a risk. Over his last 9 AB, he’s whiffed 6 times. He’s in one of the worst stretches of baseball in his career right now. That said, Abbott is a low strikeout pitcher and if ever there was a bounce-back spot for him, tonight would be it.

Secondary Pieces: Other bats I’ll look to include here tonight will be Ronald Acuna, Austin Riley, and Travis d’Arnaud. All three have wOBA’s over .350 vs. righties over the last month. Acuna and Riley are the heart and soul of this team. If you can fit them tonight, and you should be able to with the cost of pitchers, play them.

Baltimore Orioles vs. Connor Seabold

As someone that lives 20 minutes from Camden Yards, just the mere fact that they are just 4 games out of the playoffs on 9/26 is something I never thought would have been possible this season. The Orioles need to win just about every game at this point to stay in the playoff hunt and get a great matchup today.

Connor Seabold hasn’t pitched much this season, but when he has he’s been pretty bad. He’s been on the mound with the big club 4 times so far this season. In those 4 appearances, he’s allowed 19 ER in just 16 innings of work. Allowing more than a run per inning is a pretty rate! Against Seabold, I’m not going to be overly concerned with splits. So far his in brief Major League career, Seabold hasn’t shown the ability to get either side of the plate out so I won’t be too concerned with splits.

Core: I’m starting my Oriole stack tonight with the 3 guys that should be at the top of the lineup, with 2 guys being the future of this organization. I’m going to build around Cedric Mullins, Adley Rutschman, and Gunnar Henderson. Henderson is coming into this one on the cold side, going hitless in his last 4 games. A matchup with Seabold should wake him. Henderson’s been strong vs. righties over the last month, with a .374 wOBA and a .224 ISO.

Through the first few months of his career, Rutschman has shown why he was the first overall pick in 2019. He’s been a beast behind the plate and has also been really solid offensively. He’s been good vs. righties over the last month, with a .382 wOBA and a .205 ISO. At $4.7k tonight on DK, he’s the cheapest he’s been in quite a while. Let’s take advantage of that “discount”.

Secondary/Value: Other Orioles bats I like tonight will be Anthony Santander, Terrin Vavra, and Kyle Stowers. Should Vavra and Stowers make the lineup tonight, they’ll be great value plays. Both are at or just about at the min price on DK tonight and will get the platoon advantage.

Boston Red Sox vs. Jordan Lyles

A complete game stack here is in play. While Jordan Lyles has been much improved this season, most of that has been at home. His road ERA this season is 2 runs higher at 5.48. He’s been way more susceptible away from Camden Yards and we’ll want to take advantage of that.

Before his complete game shutout of the Tigers, Lyles had thrown 2 duds. One of those duds was against this same Red Sox team. In that game, he allowed 8 ER in just a little less than 4 innings of work. While I doubt we see a carbon copy of that game, I do expect the Red Sox to be able to hit him hard tonight. With Lyles, we want to prioritize getting lefty bats against him. They have a nearly .500 slugging % vs. him and a .360 wOBA. 14 of the 24 homers he’s allowed this season have been to lefties.

Core: Knowing that Lyles is way worse against lefties, I’m going to prioritize getting Rafael Devers, Alex Verdugo, and Reese McGuire into my Red Sox MLB DFS stack. While Devers is the big name here, Verdugo and McGuire are actually the batters that have been against righties over the last month. Verdugo has a wOBA of .379 vs. them and an ISO of .214. McGuire has been even better, with a .324 ISO and a .375 wOBA. All 3 will be in my Red Sox stack tonight.

Value: After my core, I’ll look to get in guys like Xander Bogaerts, Tommy Pham, and for value Yu Chang. Chang, while in limited AB, has a .438 wOBA vs. righties over the last month and is just $2.2k on DK tonight.

MLB DFS Summary

Other MLB DFS stacks I really like tonight will the Pirates vs. Anderson if you don’t use Anderson and the Yankees vs. Gausman.

Make sure to check out our Home Run Model. And Also make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.

3 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Thursday – 09/30

Joel Bartilotta 4 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Thursday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a nice sized 9 gameslate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.

My goal today will be to walk you through my 3 favorite pitchers and 3 favorite stacks on the day. We are heading into the final weekend and we still have some teams battling for their playoff live. Phillies are on the cusp of elimination as they sit 4.5 games out. One more loss for them or one more win for the Braves and they are out. Giants still hold a 2 game lead over the Dodgers for the NL West and you can be rest assured both teams are going to bust their tails to ensure they don’t have to play in the Wild Card game against a surging Cardinals team.

We are now down to 4 teams remaining in the AL Wild Card race. Toronto is one game out of the Wild Card while the Mariners are just a half game. Bos and NYY currently hold both the AL Wild Cards. This is shaping up to be just an awesome last few days of baseball.

Let’s dig in to today’s slate!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Nick Pivetta ($6.8k) vs. Baltimore Orioles – This is the cheapest that Pivetta has been all year and we’re getting him in a spot where he can really succeed. Orioles over the last week are striking out more than 28% of the time while also not hitting for much power. The projected lineup for the Orioles tonight is almost entirely right handed and that sets up great for Pivetta.

Over the last month Pivetta is striking out righties at a 29% clip. If Pivetta’s curveball is on tonight he has a really great chance of having a ceiling type game. Up and down the Orioles lineup we have extremely high whiff rates vs. the curveball. I’ll never be comfortable going all in on Pivetta, but this is a great spot for him tonight. Oh, and he’s dirt cheap.

Rich Hill ($7.4k) vs. Miami Marlins – They throw from different sides of the mound, but if Taijuan Walker can dominate the Marlins, I guess anyone can right? Walker aside, I really like Hill’s chances of having a solid game tonight. At 41 years old you have to wonder if tonight is his last pitch. So I’m going narrative season here. I think Hill puts forth 100% effort tonight vs. a Marlins team that is striking out almost 26% of the time vs. lefties over the last month.

With Hill on the hill (see what I did there), you essentially neutralize the Marlin’s best 2 hitters in Chisholm and Sanchez. Both guys have K rates greater than 30% to lefties. Hill pitched against this same Marlins team on 9/8 and had his best outing as a Mets pitcher. He should do it again tonight. Dick Mountain has himself a game a tonight.

Robbie Ray ($10.8K) vs. New York Yankees – I’m a little gun shy about using Ray here. The Yankees lineup is rolling and let’s be honest, paying almost $11k for a pitcher that’s not in top form screams high risk and low reward. With that being said, no pitcher on tonight’s slate rivals Ray in terms of K rate. Over the last month his K rate is still sitting at nearly 36%. We’ve seen the Yankees struggle at times vs. lefties this year and if there’s a lefty to struggle against, it’s Ray.

The Yankees as a whole struggle vs. sliders. Guys like Stanton and Judge have whiff rates at 50% or greater vs. the pitch when coming from lefties. If we get Ray’s A slider tonight he can definitely get past this lineup, but if it’s the slightest bit off he’s going to struggle. My early lean is to go with either Pivetta or Hill, but if we see Ray’s ownership being low I may jump on him.

MLB DFS: The Bats

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Vince Velasquez – I almost never use Dodgers bats. Tonight is a night I plan on loading up. We have a large enough body of work on Velasquez to know that as a whole, his career has been a fairly large disappointment. On the year Velazquez has a 5.11 xFIP and both sides of the plate have been able to do damage against him. Both sides have ISO’s over .200 and wOBA’s over .330.

Since I’m not overly concerned with platoon splits here my Dodgers stack is going to focus on the guys that are hot right now. Turner ($4.3k), Pollock ($3.1k), and Seager ($3.9k) all are smashing the ball right now with OPS’s at or over 1.300 over the past week. Turner is the best of the bunch right now as he has 4 barrels in his last 22 at bats. The Padres dug deep into their bullpen yesterday so my hope is they give Velasquez a longer leash tonight.

Boston Red Sox vs. Alexander Wells – Boston has a very soft grip on the second wild card spot. With a match up against Wells they have a chance to get their lead up to a full game with Mariners having an off day. The Sox faced off against Wells 11 days ago and had some solid results. They were able to tag him with 5 runs in 5 innings. I don’t see why tonight will be any different.

Wells is someone that just gives up way too much contact. Over the last month he has just a 5.7% swinging strike rate. While he doesn’t give up a ton of hard contact, he tends to make mistakes that always cost him as nearly 20% of his fly balls leave the park. Not a good ratio. Any Red Sox stack against a lefty has to start with Hunter Renfroe ($3.6k).

Over the last month he has a near .400 wOBA and .200 ISO. One guy that I’m not going to shy away from in a L/L match up is Kyle Schwarber ($3.8k). Schwarber is extremely solid against lefties as he has a .222 ISO and .454 wOBA against them in September. The last guy I’ll prioritize here is Dalbec ($3k) who is also crushing lefties in September with a .517 ISO. That’s pretty good! Red Sox still have something to play for and I think they put up a huge number tonight.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Ian Anderson – Phillies have to win out and the Braves lose out to force a playoff for the NL East. They are going to give it their all tonight and they have an exploitable match up. Anderson is probably the weak link in the Braves rotation and he’s been pretty bad over the past 30 days. His xFIP is approaching 6 and he’s giving up a ton of fly balls. The Phillies get to him tonight.

Where we want to attack Anderson is with lefties as they have a .680 ISO against him over the past 30 days. That was not a fat finger moment. It’s really that high. My core with the Phillies will be Harper ($4.4k) and Brad Miller ($2.5k). Both guys are crushing righties in the month of August, with Harper having a .508 ISO and Miller a .362 ISO. The only chance that the Phillies have of winning tonight is if these 2 guys perform the way they should in a great match up. Herrera ($2.9k) and Didi ($2.7k) can also be added to this stack but aren’t a priority. Harper and Miller are the ones I want here.

If you want to get a little crazy tonight, and who doesn’t, add some Yankees to your lineup. Stanton ($4.1k) and Judge ($4.3k) have crushed lefties over the last month and could get to Ray. Yes, I wrote up Ray tonight because he’s the best pitcher on the slate. That said, his ownership should be high today and if he faulters and you have Yankees in your lineup you’ll be at the top of the leaderboards.

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

We are in the home stretch folks. It’s the last few days of the regular season. This time of the year can be tough but it’s also a time of the year to sit back and really enjoy the game. Teams that are in the hunt will play with extra emotion and I expect the Dodgers and Red Sox to go full ham tonight.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Tuesday – 09/28

Joel Bartilotta 4 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Tuesday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a nice sized 13 game slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.

My goal today will be to walk you through my 3 favorite pitchers and 3 favorite stacks on the day. We are in the home stretch and there are only a handful of teams that are playing for anything right now. NYY, BOS, TOR, Sea, and OAK are all battling for the 2 wild card spots in the AL. Braves and Phillies are battling for the NL east and the Dodgers are currently chasing the Giants for the NL West crown. At this point of the year, my pitchers will mostly come from those teams as we’re certain to get the regular outings out of them.

Let’s dig in to today’s slate!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Brandon Woodruff ($10.2k) vs. St. Louis Cardinals – Cardinals have to lose at some point right? Well I think it’s today against the Brewers Ace. Over the last 30 days Woodruff has been superb. He has a 2.73 xFIP to go with his elite 32% K rate. He’s going to face a Cardinals lineup today that will be predominantly right handed as they project to have 7 righties in there.

That’s right in Woodruff’s wheelhouse as he has a 34% K rate against righties over the last month. Woodruff has faced the Cardinals 3 times now and has 2 double digit strike out games. I think he brings the Cardinals back down to earth today and makes it a third game with at least 10 K’s.

Chris Sale ($10k) vs. Baltimore Orioles – I’ll be honest, I’m not 100% sold on Sale tonight. He has some warning signs ahead of his match up with the Orioles. His swinging strike rate over the last month is just 11.5% and his K rate is under 21%. Also, the Orioles at times this year have been extremely solid vs. lefties. This has the makings of a trap play.

That said, the Red Sox are in must win mode and I think Sale dials it up a notch tonight. Sale has been using his slider more than 30% of the time to both sides of the plate. If his slider is on point tonight, he’ll be fine. Outside of Mullins, the entire Orioles projected lineup has whiff rates greater than 30% against slider.

Zack Wheeler ($10.7k) vs. Atlanta Braves – This is going to be the fifth time that Wheeler faces the Braves tonight this season it’s by far the most crucial. With the Phillies currently on the outside looking in, this is a must win for them. A loss and they fall back 3.5 games with just 5 to play. In those 4 prior match ups Wheeler struck out 34 in 26 innings of work. He has the ability to mow down this lineup.

My hope here is that he relies more on his slider tonight than he normally does. The projected lineup tonight for the Braves struggles mightily vs. it as they have a handful of guys that 40% whiff rates against it. Last time out vs. the Braves he threw it 40% of the time and struck out 8 in 7.

MLB DFS: The Bats

Boston Red Sox vs. Bruce Zimmermann – The Red Sox are coming off a demoralizing series against the Yankees. They were swept in Fenway which put a huge damper on their playoff hopes. While they are still holding on to the Wild Card spot, the Blue Jays are now just a game behind them. The scheduling gods are here to the rescue as they get a 3 game series against a 106 loss team in the Orioles.

Zimmermann hasn’t pitched in the majors since mid-June. When he was up the major we really wanted to focus on the righties as he gives up way more fly balls to them and hard hits. He had a fly ball rate of 36.5% vs. righties. My main areas of focus here will be Hernandez ($3.6k), Renfroe ($3.6k), and Bogaerts ($3.7k). One way to differentiate this stack is to bring Iglesias ($2.3k) into the mix.

He’s cheap, gives you a wrap around with Hernandez and Renfroe, but most importantly he’s one of their hottest and most consistent hitters right now. Over the last week he has a .945 OPS and .404 wOBA. He’s not going to hit you a homer but he gets on base and stands a good chance to score a run or two if this stack goes off.

Minnesota Twins vs. Tyler Alexander – The Twins vs. Alexander today is my regression type play. Over the last 30 days Alexander has just a 3.2 ERA. That’s pretty good. There’s always, always more to it than meets the eye. He has several things that really stand out to me. His swinging strike rate is just 6.9%, has a 45% fly ball rate, and a 35% hard hit rate. Guys are hitting him hard and putting the ball in the air. It’s only a matter of time before all of those caution signs add up to a blow up outing for Alexander.

Against a pretty solid, but underperforming Twins lineup it very well could be tonight. Alexander’s main pitch to righties is his cutter. Buxton ($4k)and Polanco ($3.5k) profile extremely well against this pitch. Buxton has a .933 slugging % against cutters this year. Other guys I’d like here are Donaldson ($3.2k) and Rooker ($2.2k). Both guys have been hitting lefties well over the last month.

Kansas City Royals vs. Aaron Civale – Since coming off the IL Civale has been an inconsistent mess. He looked dominant against the Yankees but gave up 7 ER to both the Brewers and the White sox. Righties have been his Achilles heal as they have a .514 ISO against him since his return. They are just teeing off on him and the Royals have a few righties we’ll want to grab.

Any Royals stack has to start with Salvador Perez ($3.5k). He’s currently tied with Guerrero for the major league lead in homers with 46. I have no doubt that over the last week he’s going to give it his all to get the magic number of 50. I’ll also want to grab Merrifield ($3.4k) and Dozier ($2.5k). Dozier has a .333 ISO against righties over the last month and is extremely cheap.

I didn’t write up the Rockies as one of my top stacks but they are also in a great spot vs. a pitcher in Corbin that has home run tendencies. They are also way too cheap for the environment tonight. If you go Rockies you want the right side of the plate as Corbin is giving up way more power to them. Righties have a .269 ISO against him in September.

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

We are in the home stretch folks. It’s the last week of the season. We’ll want to focus on the teams in the hunt with our pitching. As it stands, my lean is either Wheeler or Woodruff. I love Sale as a pitcher, but I’m nervous about the match up tonight. Red Sox will be my priority tonight as they get a great match up and have something to play for.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Sunday – 09/19

Joel Bartilotta 4 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Sunday Funday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a nice sized 12 game slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.

My goal today will be to walk you through my 3 favorite pitchers and 3 favorite stacks on the day. With today’s slate we are going to see a much smaller tournament pool with NFL in play. Today’s a day to scale back as the risk just won’t worth the reward. That said, this is a really fun slate

Let’s dig in to today’s slate!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Gerrit Cole ($11.5k) vs. Cleveland Indians – I hope box score watchers fade Cole today because he’s primed for a ceiling game today. Cole’s last two outings have been a little subpar, but for good reason. His outing against the Blue Jays he injured his hamstring and then against the Orioles he was a bit rusty early on. After shaking off some rust in that game he really came back strong.

W/ a match up today against the Indians he really should have a nice bounce back. While the Indians put up a huge number yesterday, it was against a much lesser pitcher in Gil. They’ve still really struggled against righties over the past month. They have a 26% K rate and just a .123 ISO. That 26% K rate is what I’m focused. As a team that’s a pretty high number and with them facing an elite strike out pitcher in Cole that number should jump. Look for Cole to bounce back today and have a ceiling type game.

Sandy Alcantara ($10.8K) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates – The Pirates aren’t a high strike out team. They also aren’t a team that does much damage, especially against righties as they have just a .134 ISO against them over the last month. While I’m a little concerned with the Pirates lack of strike outs the one thing I often preach is that strike out pitchers find their strike outs.

Alcantara is an elite strike out pitcher. He has a slate leading 36% K rate over the past month. If we look at his last outing it’s a prime example of strike out pitchers finding their strike outs. Washington is also a stingy lineup that doesn’t K much. They actually strike out less than the Pirates. Alcantara struck out 7 in 8 innings and only allowed 1 hit.

If Alcantara pitched in a different market he’d be more of a household name. Alcantara is primed to ease through a very weak Pirates lineup. With a $700 savings he’s going to be my SP1 today.

Nathan Eovaldi ($10.5k) vs. Baltimore Orioles – No team is striking out more over the past week than the Orioles. They have a 35% K rate and also not putting up much offense when they do make contact. The O’s are just a team chasing history.

In Eovaldi we’re getting a pitcher in peak form. He has a 3.04 xFIP over the last month and a 32% K rate. While the Orioles’ lineup occasionally shows some life, I just don’t see them doing it today. Eovaldi should be able to mow through this lineup with ease and give the Orioles their 102^nd loss today.

I know, I gave you three pitchers over $10k today. It’s Sunday, in August, on a 12 game slate. There’s going to be a ton of value today with many teams completely out of the playoff picture. I also just don’t think there’s any reason to get fancy with pitching today as the 3 pitches I laid out are in prime spots.

MLB DFS: The Bats

Boston Red Sox vs. Alex Wells – This is going to be a chalky place for offense today. They will be a tough fade today because Wells isn’t good and the Red Sox are battling for the Wild Card spot. They should put out their regular lineup as their regulars can get a breather tomorrow. The righties for Boston are in an absolute smash spot today.

Over the last 30 days Wells is getting ‘lit’ up by righties. They have a .429 ISO and .464 wOBA against him. They also have a 44% fly ball rate and 56% hard hit rate. The popular guys here will be Hernandez ($3.6k), Renfroe ($4.2k), Bogaerts ($4.1k), and Dalbec ($3.5k). Of these 4 Renfroe and Dalbec are my favorites as they’ve been crushing lefties over the last month. Renfroe has a .360 ISO and Dalbec has a .500.

One way to get fancy and differentiate yourself with a Sox lineup today is to play some lefties like Devers ($4.2k) and Schwarber ($4k). If the Red Sox live up to expectations today and do smash, Wells won’t last more than a few innings and those lefties will eventually get the platoon advantage.

New York Yankees vs. Eli Morgan – The Yankees are another team that is currently in a battle for the Wild Card as they are a half game behind the Red Sox and Blue Jays. At this point of the season these are the teams we to focus our salary on as they aren’t just “playing out the string.” It also helps that the Yankees get a great match up today vs. Eli Morgan.

Morgan will be a solid pitcher, he’s just not ready and he’s not solid yet. The last 30 days have been a struggle for him as his xFIP is sitting at 6.11. He’s giving up way too many fly balls and way too much hard contact. His FB rate is over 48% and his hard hits are over 46%. In his last 17 innings of work he’s given up 5 homers and 9 barrels. Just not what you want to see out of your starter.

Lefties have given him the most heart burn as they have a .400 ISO against him over the last month. We’ll need to see if Gallo ($3.3k) is back in there today and if he is he becomes my core to this stack. He has a .481 ISO against righties over the past month and is in great form right now. I’ll also look to include Rizzo ($3.4k) and Gardner ($2.3k).

If Higgy ($2k) is in there today I also love him for value. He’s min priced and frees up so much salary wise for us. If Gallo is in the lineup today the Yankees become a priority for me over the Red Sox. I know he’s just one player but if he’s in, he’s going yard and really makes this lineup solid.

Seattle Mariners vs. Jackson Kowar – I’m looking to the Mariners today for value. They have a bunch of guys in their lineup that are in prime spots today and get a great match up vs. Kowar. After an absolutely dominant outing vs. the Indians at the start of September, Kowar has seen in a slip in performance. His last 2 outings have been a struggle and I think the Mariners can get to him today.

I’m looking at the Mariners lefties as Kowar’s fly ball rate sky rockets to 57% against them vs. just 18% for righties. Lefties also have an average hit distance of 213 feet vs. him so we know they’re a weakness for him. The guys I’m most focused on here are Crawford ($2.6k), Fraley ($2.2k), Toro ($2.6k), and Kelenic ($2.8k).

These 4 are all under $3k and if we are going to spend up on teams like the Red Sox and Yankees, we need some cheap guys. Kelenic is my favorite of the bunch as he’s finally starting to hit like the top prospect he is. Mariners should be put a big number vs. Kowar today.

I didn’t write up the SDP/STL game but there should be offense in that game. We have two past their prime pitchers. I’d prioritize Cardinals bats in that game as they are more of a sure thing vs. Arrieta.

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

While the contests are smaller today, this is shaping up to be a fun slate. We have some ace level pitching and solid bats in play.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Wednesday –08/25

Joel Bartilotta 4 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Wednesday edition of Aces and Bases. Tonight we have a nice sized 10 game main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.

My goal today will be to walk you through my 3 favorite pitchers and 3 favorite stacks on the day. With a small slate comes a limited pool of options.

Let’s dig in to today’s slates!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Shohei Ohtani ($11.6k) vs. Baltimore Orioles – This is more than I’d like to pay for Ohtani but of the all the aces pitching tonight he gets by far the softest match up. The Orioles have been one of the worst teams against righties this year.

The projected lineup tonight for the Orioles has a 24% K rate against righties this year and just a .155 ISO. They’ll more than likely throw out 6 righties and that’s right in Ohtani’s wheelhouse as he has a 34% K rate against them this year.

Ohtani very well could be the highest scoring pitcher on the night. His price is the only thing holding me back from saying , “I’m all in”.

Josiah Gray ($8k) vs. Miami Marlins – My cheap arm tonight will be Gray and I doubt I look cheaper than him. Gray gets a great match up against a weak Marlins lineup. Over the past week the Marlins have not generated much offense. They have a 26% K rate and just a handful of barrels.

I’m looking here because of Gray’s swing and miss stuff. Of all the pitchers on the hill tonight only Giolito has a higher swinging strike rate than Gray over the past month. He also has a near 26% K rate over the past month.

Gray has been able to navigate his way through some really tough opponents so far with his last 3 outings against the Braves twice and the Blue Jays once. While he didn’t go completely unscathed in those outings, he did score at least 28 FD points in each of them. It will be fun to see what he can do against a mediocre lineup tonight.

Lucas Giolito ($9.8k) vs. Toronto Blue Jays – This isn’t a safe pick because it’s the Toronto Blue Jays. Wanted to get that out of the way. That said, the Blue Jays are not clicking on all cylinders right now and Dylan Cease was able to take full advantage of that last night.

Gio has been pretty good of late with a 29.5% K rate and 3.12 xFIP over the past month. The Blue Jays are a very righty heavy lineup. Gio has seen his K rate climb to 32% against righties over the last month.

The Blue Jays will see a decent amount of sliders tonight. If Gio’s slider is on tonight he should have a solid night. Up and down the Blue Jays lineup they have whiff rates over 30% against the pitch. He’s my high risk/high reward pick of the night.

MLB DFS: The Bats

Los Angeles Angels vs. Dean Kremer – I’m going right back to the well tonight with the Angels. The two names I’ve seen to be next in line to stop the bleeding for the Orioles are Chris Ellis and Dean Kremer. Ellis has only pitched in one game in the majors this year and it was against the Orioles. Outside of that he’s struggled at AAA this year.

Kremer has struggled at the major league level. With either pitcher we’ll hope to get the Orioles bullpen early as it’s overworked and bad. My main focus here as of now will be the guys hitting the ball the best.

Brandon Marsh ($2.5k) is the hottest of the bunch with a .966 OPS over the past week. He’ll be a lock in my lineup. This entire lineup will be in play tonight as they are cheap and in a great spot. Only Jared Walsh ($3k) is at $3k or higher tonight.

San Francisco Giants vs. Taijuan Walker – Boy a lot has changed for the Mets over the past 30 days! The Giants steamrolled the Mets last night and I just don’t see how they don’t’ do it again tonight.

Walker, outside of one start to the Dodgers, has been absolutely brutal over the past month. His xFIP is 5.14, his fly ball rate 46%, and his hard hit rate is 41%. The match up for him tonight couldn’t be any worse either.

Giants over the past 30 days have been crushing righties. The top of the lineup in Wade ($3.4k) and Belt ($3.1k) have really been setting the tone. They each have ISO’s over .311 against righties over the past month. They’ll be my anchors to the Giants stack tonight.

Almost Mets 3B Kris Bryant ($3.9k) and Alex Dickerson ($2.5k) have also been hitting righties hard and will more than likely close out my Giants stack. This Giants lineup is deep and against a struggling Mets team tonight will again put up a big number.

Boston Red Sox vs. Baily Ober – Ober hasn’t been awful recently, but he’s still giving up a ton of hard contact. Over the past 30 days his hard contact is above 38%. This Red Sox lineup does not lineup very well for Ober.

Ober is mostly a fastball pitcher. He throws it a ton to both sides, but even more so to lefties. The Red Sox have a handful of guys that just love hitting the heat. The guy that really comes to mind is Kyle Schwarber ($3.5k).

On the year he has a .673 slugging % against fastballs and a 61% hard hit rate. He’s my lock here. I’ll surround him with the likes of Devers ($4k) and Renfroe ($3.6k). Both guys have been crushing fastballs as well this year. Look for the Red Sox to put up another big number tonight!

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

We have a decent amount of pitching options tonight and I’ve provided my favorite in the high and medium price ranges. My favorite combo with bats is going to look very similar to last night. I’ll use a combo of Angels and Red Sox as they mesh well together and are in great spots.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

4 years ago 0 comments

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