Betting Picks

Jacob’s Above Average Plays had a solid night last night winning one and losing one. He looks to sweep his plays tonight with one Above Average Play from the NBA, NHL, and NCAAB.

All odds provided by DraftKings

Take William and Mary Tribe -2 vs St. Joseph’s Hawks (7:00 pm EST, Thursday 19 December 2019)

We come into this game with an above-average loser and an above-average winner. First the loser: St. Joseph. It’s simple they just bad. Currently, they are on an ugly eight-game losing streak. Sure – they have had a tough schedule, but they are a run and gun team that doesn’t play well on defense. In the Hawk’s last game out, they lost by forty-seven points to Temple. They have only lost one game by single digits. The Hawks have lost by an average of twenty-two points in the last five games, which is way above their average losing margin of 12.5 points per game. I have said before: St Joe’s has an above-average pace to their play. They currently rank 53rd in the nation in the pace of play. They are above average in three-pointers attempted, thirty-one per game – and that’s about it for anything they are good at. Hawks were expected to be one of the best A-10 Conference teams this year.

To begin the season, Coach Phil Martelli thought he was going to have one of the fastest above-average offenses in their conference. This was due to the fact that last year, he had a banged-up roster the whole time. This year, he was able to get two of his best players back, with the return of Charlie Brown Jr. and Lamarr Kimble, and they have not lived up to potential. His team has not been able to perform on the defensive side of the ball, as St Joe’s ranks 302nd in the nation in overall defense. That spells trouble here. The Hawks have to face one of the nation’s best teams against the spread in William & Mary, who has covered eight out of ten games so far this year. They are also the owners of an above-average offense, which ranks 43rd in the nation in total overall offense. They only rank 195th in possessions per game, but it allows them to play smarter basketball by slowing the pace – so, that doesn’t really bother me. The Tribe is also an above-average rebounding team. That will give St. Joe’s all sorts of problems (Tribe – 88th in nation Hawks – 258th in the nation).

These teams met once last year, with William & Mary’s winning a close game 87-85 – but those were two very different teams.  We are seeing a line lower than it should be because of St. Joe’s at home, but I do not think this game is close for a second. Lay the points.

Take Philadelphia Flyers -147 vs Buffalo Sabres (7:00 pm EST, Thursday 19 December 20109)

The Flyers have been an up and down team this year, and are on their second game home after a winless three-game road trip. Overall, Philadelphia is .500 on the season at thirty-seven wins and thirty-seven losses, but they are an above-average team at home. So far this year, the Flyers have won eleven out of seventeen home games. When at home, Philly is an above-average scoring team, scoring 3.59 goals per game (GPG) while holding teams to 2.29 GPG. The Flyers are also perfect verse the Sabres at home, winning five out of the last five games. They have been an above-average penalty kill team at home, ranking them 12th in the NHL. This is Philly’s last home game before hitting the road again. Buffalo is in a similar situation when it comes to how they play. At home, the Sabres have won ten of their sixteen games. However, when they hit the road, they have won just six out of thirteen games. While they are usually an above-average team, Buffalo disappoints when not at home. They rank 22^nd in goal allowed, 23^rd in shots on goal allowed, and 30^th in penalty kill.

Philly performs way above average for their overall form when at home, and I think they take full advantage of a bad road team in Buffalo. Just for a cherry on top, Philly has won five out of the last five games verse Buffalo at home and five out of seven overall. Take Philly -147.

Take Utah Jazz -6 vs Atlanta Hawks (7:40 pm EST, Thursday 19 December 20109)

I just have to take this bet. It may be a trap, but the Hawks are just so bad. Atlanta lost their last game to the Knicks by 23 points and gave up 143. Let me say it again, that was to the Knicks. The Hawks, unlike other teams, do not play better at home as we would usually see. They have only won three out of their thirteen games played at home, the same amount they have won on the road. To add to that, they are on a five-game losing streak, losing by an average 17.2 points per game. Trae Young is really their only above-average player. He is playing 36 minutes and averages 24.8 points per game. When you compare him to the league’s other stars, he is well below the status quo of the average NBA superstar. Utah comes into this game winning four of their last five games. While none of them have been dominating victories, their defense impressed, and that’s what I’m focused on in this game. Utah is one of the leagues best defensive teams on the road. They rank the top ten in the NBA in total score allowed, field goal percentage, three-point shots made, free throws attempted, and total rebounds. Utah’s above-average defense is going to give the Hawks all sorts of problems. I believe the Jazz totally shut down Trae Young and the Atlanta offense. Their stifling defense will cause a lot of problems for the Hawks and lead to a double-digit Jazz victory.