Betting Picks

Jacob’s Above Average Plays is back with four plays that will knock your socks off. Two NHL, one NBA, and one play on the first game of the NFL’s Wild Card Playoff weekend. These are the kind of plays that make you a winner.

Take Los Angeles Clippers -11 versus Memphis Grizzlies ( 3:30 pm EST, Saturday 4 January 2020)

The Grizzlies travel to Los Angeles to take on the Clippers. The Clippers are one of the league’s best home teams straight up and against the spread. When the Clippers play at home they are really tough to beat. The Clippers won fifteen of the eighteen games they played and they covered the spread in twelve of them. They score an average of almost 117 points per game at home (116.67 ppg) while allowing just 105.72 ppg to visitors. Paul George is likely out for this game and that doesn’t bother me. Kawhi Leonard is more than capable of leading this team himself as Memphis is one of the worst road teams in the NBA.

Memphis was a bad team all year. They dealt with multiple injuries already this season and, while the team is slowly coming back together, the Clippers are not the team to turn the corner on. The Grizzlies only won six of the sixteen road games they played this year, covering in seven of them. Their defense is ranked twenty-fifth in the league in points allowed when playing on the road, allowing 115.19 points per game. Memphis allows teams to shoot almost 50% from the field (46.36%) and that’s bad news as the Clippers are an above-average scoring team at home. The Clippers have a 46.12% field goal percentage and make 35.87% of their three-point attempts.

Memphis is not the team that will give the Clippers a run for their money. Not only do the Clippers cover the spread 66% of the time when playing at home but have covered in eleven of seventeen games versus teams who win less than 45% of their games.  Grab this line soon, as it opened with the Clippers as ten-point favorites and it has already moved up to eleven and I can only see it to continue to go up.

Take Buffalo Bills +3 versus Houston Texans ( 4:35 pm EST, Saturday 4 January 2020)

This Wild Card match-up is the first game of the NFL playoffs this season. Buffalo travels to Houston as three-point underdogs where Houston covered, just once, as a home favorite in the last seven games played when they were favored.

Houston had above average moments this year, so don’t get me wrong when I say they don’t cover the spread at home. It’s just a fact! Houston was an on-again, off-again respectable offense but that’s when they were healthy and, right now, they are not. Wide receiver Will Fuller is a long shot to play today and he changes the offense when he is on the field. He is the Texans deep threat and deep plays are a big part of their offense. When Fuller is on the field quarterback Deshaun Watson’s deep pass completion percentage goes from 34.3% to 43.2% and that really opens up the passing game. Overall, their offense is an above-average offense ranked thirteenth in the league in scoring, fifteenth in passing and twelfth in rushing but they are taking on one of the league’s best defenses in Buffalo. I see that being a major problem for them. It doesn’t help that Houston ranks in the bottom third of the league in rushing and passing defense. While this is Josh Allen’s first playoff game, I see him being able to take advantage of their weak defense (yes, even though J.J Watt is back).

Buffalo’s team played above average all year, especially on defense. The Buffalo defense ranked second in the league in points allowed, allowing just an average of 16.19 points a game. They hold teams under 200 yards passing per game (195.13 yards) and 103.13 yards rushing per game. Buffalo’s team is built to control the clock and keep Houston off the field. They have the better defense and, if Josh Allen can take advantage of a weak Houston defense, I think he and wide receiver, Jon Brown, will have a field day. Bill’s running back, Devin Singletary, progressed nicely as a rookie and, if Buffalo can get the lead, I see them using Singletary to keep Watson and the Houston offense off the field.

I think Buffalo is the better team here and that they cover this line. They are arguably coached way better than Houston this year. Coach Sean McDermott turned Josh Allen into an NFL quarterback!  With the Houston passing game banged up, I think they struggle to not only move the ball but score points. I really think Buffalo gets the outright win here but I’ll take the points just in case. Take Buffalo plus three points.

Take Philadelphia Flyers versus Arizona Coyotes YES-Goal scored in the 1st 10 minutes -122 (8:00 pm EST, Saturday 4 January 2020)

Philadelphia is one of the best teams in the league having goals scored in the first ten minutes of their games. The Flyers have had goals scored in the first ten minutes of their games in 25 of the 34 played, which is quite above average at 73.5% of the time. When Philadelphia goes on the road, a goal is scored in the first ten minutes in over 85% of their games. Arizona, too, has an above-average amount of goals scored in the first ten minutes of their games. The Coyotes have had at least one goal scored in the first ten minutes in 25 out of the 42 games played, which is good for 59.5% of the time. The Coyotes tend to play faster and more aggressive at home versus the Flyers. The Flyers play faster and more aggressive when on the road versus Arizona. The total hit the over in six of the last seven games when Philadelphia traveled to Arizona to play. The way these two teams have been playing, I do not see this being any different. Take YES- Goal scored in the 1st 10 minutes -122.

(For this bet to win, either team must score a goal in the first ten minutes of the game. If the game reaches ten minutes and one second without a goal, we have a loser.)

Take Philadelphia Flyers versus Arizona Coyotes OVER 5.5 Goals -108 (8:00 pm EST, Saturday 4 January 2020)

There are just too many stats pointed towards the over in this game. Philly went over the total in five of their last six road games and in five of their last seven games overall. The Flyers went over the total in six of the last seven versus Arizona when playing them on the road. Arizona is at home in this game and they score an above-average amount of goals when at home. When the Coyotes are at home, they have gone over the total in eight of their last ten games, averaging just about three goals per game (2.9 gpg). This is good news for Arizona as Philadelphia allows almost four goals per game (3.73 gpg) when playing on the road. 

These two teams play each other tough and when they meet there are usually a lot of goals. The combined average score between these two teams in the last ten games played versus each other is 6.4 goals. The total today is 5.5, I’m taking the over.