What a week at the RBC Canadian Open! Nick Taylor was included in our selections at 66/1, causing EPIC celebrations within the WinDaily Sports Discord akin to the 18th green celebrations on course. The dramatic victory and breaking of 60+ years of hoodoo managed to overshadow the PIF news and the PGA/LIV Golf merger momentarily. There is no rest though, as it is another big week with our US Open picks!
Unlike the drought of Canadian citizens winning their national open, the 66/1 win was simply a continuation of another fantastic year for our selections. We rarely give out match-up plays. However, we saw an edge in Round 4 and we went 6/6 for our selections. This follows the same at the PGA Championship, when we last gave out some Round 4 match-ups and duly went 4/4. We have now shown a return on investment in 2023 of +69% and are up +562.57 units. Profit is already guaranteed in 2023 for those who have followed!
Los Angeles Country Club plays host to the 123rd US Open. This is the first time LA have hosted a US Open since 1940 and the inaugural US Open at this course. In fact, there have been no professional events held at this exclusive club. There have been amateur events, namely a Pac-12 Championship and Walker Cup, but this course will play so different to those events I think any perceived information from those tournaments can be largely discarded. Read on to find what we believe are the key metrics to target this week.
Los Angeles Country Club Course Analysis
The first note is this course, on paper, plays very long. A 7,421 yard would not be uncommon for a par 72. We instead find a par 70, with 5 par 3s and just 3 par 5s. However, I do think the distance needs to come with a few caveats.
Chiefly, the conditions are extremely firm and fast. This will enhance rollout, especially for those with a lower ball-flight. Where I do see driving distance being an asset is the large number of approach shots over 200+ yards. Naturally, those with increased driving distance tend to have higher clubhead speed and therefore can use a higher loft on a long approach shot. Additionally, with some pretty mean and thick rough this week. A semblance of strength will be beneficial for your US Open picks digging the ball out after missed fairways and greens.
Much has been made of how wide these fairways are. Again, I think this requires a little more of a deep dive. Fairways are heavily sloped in many instances. In addition to the firm and fast conditions, they will play a lot narrower than on first sight.
With multiple long par 3s and some big par 4/5s, long iron approach will be imperative to success. Again, do note that of the long par 3s some significant elevation changes do occur. The 280 yard 7th hole has an exposed front and will allow players to roll the ball up to the green. The 290+ yard 11th par 3 is also severely downhill.
Finally, these greens will be hard to hold. The course is as close to “links” like in nature that you may ever find at the US Open. The ability to rebound from bogeys and save par will be essential for our US Open picks.
What type of golfer suits LACC?
Overall, it looks that this will provide a stern all round examination of a golfer’s game. That starts from SG: OTT. Certainly, I do expect a situation where driving distance take precedence. But, ideally, this also comes with a modicum of accuracy. I believe an average driving distance of at least 295 yards is essential.
I have leaned heavily on long approach for the US Open picks this week. We may even see players resorting to irons and fairways woods to try hold these fairways in certain spots. This will further emphasize the need for elite long iron approach.
Around the green receives the weakest ranking of all the mainstream SG metrics. There will be some luck involved, with the bermudagrass rough around the greens so thick. Also, the long grass takes some of the skill out of such chips. However, I do believe bunker play could be a factor and there are some runoff areas which will produce tight lies.
Finally, I do weight putting a little higher than usual for our US Open picks. Particularly, this is true for bentgrass putting. Inevitably, every player will need to make their share of putts. Birdie opportunities will need to be taken; pars will need to be saved.
Course Comps for our US Open Picks
From what we have been able to discern from the information available, this course does look to be quite a unique test for our US Open picks.
Elements to Augusta National are observed. There is some more width of the tee than we would usually see at a US Open venue, as well as bentgrass greens. Naturally, with the sloped fairways I can see parallels and that rings true for the Plantation Course at Kapalua as well. Plantation also requires a disproportionate number of shots over 200+ yards and under 100 yards. I like that combination, as I believe on top of the long approach shots some closer iron shots may be required if finding trouble off-the-tee.
Other US Open venues of Shinnecock, Chambers Bay, and Erin Hills. Neighbouring Riviera Country Club is also a George Thomas design and holds some parallels.
Finally, I think Scottish Open host the Renaissance Club may be a sneaky parallel. The winning score here has been -7 and -11 previously depending on setup and wind. Although in a links style, it is not a true links course. Exposed and rugged, with undulating fairways and firm conditions, the course appears to strike some similarities to LACC.
Weather for our US Open Picks
The weather still looks to be developing this week and I will provide a final update Wednesday evening in the WinDaily Sports Discord.
Overall, conditions promise to present low humidity and warm temperatures. The course should take little time to crisp up and play very firm and fast in the afternoons particularly.
Both Thursday and Friday currently look to hold a similar outlook with very calm conditions in the morning and winds picking up in the afternoon. The morning should also prevent mildly softer conditions, before the greens firm up in the combination of sun, low humidity, and breeze. As it stands, there looks to be slightly higher and more persistent winds Friday afternoon compared to Thursday.
This pattern looks to continue into the weekend, with winds gusting up to 20-25mph in the afternoons.
Given the above course analysis and predicted weather, I’m projecting a typical US Open winning score of -6 to -9 for our US Open Picks.
US Open Picks
We have 6 headline selections this week. I’ve also included 5 longshot bombs to consider. However, you’ll notice a heavily reduced win stake. The win stake is mainly to take advantage of the generous place terms, and emphasis is on the Top 20/40 options. Selections are weighted accordingly in the below suggested staking.
Headliners: Suggested Staking
Patrick Cantlay
4pts E/W +1400 (William Hill with 10 places 1/5 odds)
Xander Schauffele – Your US Open Picks Favourite Headliner
2.5pts E/W +1800 (William Hill with 10 places 1/5 odds)
Tony Finau
2.5pts E/W +2800 (William Hill with 10 places 1/5 odds)
Justin Rose
2pts E/W +3500 (William Hill with 10 places 1/5 odds)
Rickie Fowler – Your US Open Picks Best Value Headliner
2pts E/W +6000 (William Hill with 10 places 1/5 odds)
Wyndham Clark
2pts E/W +6000 (William Hill with 10 places 1/5 odds)
[tallysight url=”https://tallysight.com/new/widget/betslip/1686674490596-adc9-226?id=049229b1-526f-4653-9b80-e1dbbbe058b2″]
Longshot Bombs: Suggested Staking
Ryan Fox – Your US Open Picks Favourite Longshot Bomb
1pt E/W +12500 (William Hill with 10 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pts Top 20 +550 (TAB)
Kurt Kitayama
0.25pts E/W +17500 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
3.5pts Top 40 +250 (TAB)
Patrick Rodgers
0.25pts E/W +20000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
3.5pts Top 40 +170 (Bet365)
Adam Schenk – Your US Open Picks Best Value Longshot Bomb
0.25pts E/W +20000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
3.5pts Top 40 +190 (Bet365)
Sepp Straka
0.25pts E/W +25000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
3.5pts Top 40 +190 (Bet365)
[tallysight url=”https://tallysight.com/new/widget/betslip/1686675020434-adc9-981?id=bb07915b-4994-4c09-bd58-85c4c1cfc1b9″]
Summary
Thank you reading our 2023 US Open picks. For an article with some insights on my golf analysis process, check this link here!
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