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LIV PGA Tour merger talks delayed: What does 2024 hold for the future of golf?

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 1 year ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

Jon Rahm announcing he signed with LIV Golf shocked the golfing world and disrupted LIV PGA Tour merger talks

In a move widely expected, given the imminent arrival of the self-imposed 31 December deadline, The Telegraph is now reporting that merger talks between LIV and PGA Tour will be extended. Obviously, this is no surprise for many. The 6 June shock announcement from the Saudi Arabian Public Investment Fund and the PGA Tour to lay down their weapons and move towards a reunification of golf was surprisingly light on any detail. With rumours that meetings were still to occur all through December, including a “final” meeting on the D-Day of 31 December itself, an outcome in time for 2024 seemed unlikely.

Further, contributing to the delay were antitrust investigations into the deal by the U.S. Justice Department and the emergence of the Strategic Sports Group as another potential investor. And, of course, the shock announcement that Jon Rahm had decided to sign with LIV Golf rocking the golf world. Make no bones about it; securing the scalp of Jon Rahm was a major boon for LIV Golf. It was his Masters victory which likely made the defection easier to stomach for Rahm. It granted him multiple years with guaranteed entry to all four majors. With LIV denied OWGR points, due a lack of clear pathways for earning (or losing) a card other than answering the phone, certainty of major entries was essential for Rahm. Further, it is speculated Rahm had become disillusioned with leadership from the negotiating team and, particularly, Patrick Cantlay’s emergence as a supposed leading voice in those talks.

It’s fair that golf fans have grown restless, frustrated, and despondent for the continual disruptions. So fans find themselves once again asking the question: what now for the future of professional golf?

Scenario 1: LIV PGA Tour merger confirmed in 2024

Perhaps the most likely outcome is that at some point in early 2024 the LIV PGA Tour merger is finally confirmed. Speculation is that the new deadline will be moved to end of March, before the latest LIV defector Jon Rahm defends his green jacket at the 2024 Masters.

What the Rahm move means is the onus is now on the PGA Tour to find a solution. Losing one of the four biggest names in the sport is a golf ball sized pill to swallow. The thought of two of their flagship events, the Sentry Tournament of Champions and the Genesis Invitational at Riviera, being without their defending champion is a bad look. Rahm is one of the few names in golf that actually move the needle in viewership.

The exact shape of that deal remains to be seen. Undoubtedly, team golf would form an element. Several LIV contracts have included equity in their respective teams for their key signings. The best scenario for fans would likely see LIV move to a team only format, drawing on players from both the PGA and DP World Tours. The current LIV format is messy, confusing, and the viewership numbers show it has simply not connected with fans in the way they hoped. Separating team golf and individual golf would provide clarity.

Most importantly for fans, it would see the best golfers play together more often. Otherwise, the sport risks becoming tennis where the major championships are the only time the best all compete. Or worse, boxing where fans are left to contemplate what title really matters. The merger remains a very possible resolution. And one which could see Jon Rahm get his $USD500m cake and be able to eat it too.

Scenario 2: PGA Tour and Strategic Sports Group form a new deal

Another possibility is that the PGA Tour utilise the expiration of the 31 December deadline and the DOJ investigation to back out of the LIV PGA Tour merger. The emergence of another potential investor was not expected. However, it became clear this was a preference for the PGA Tour when players gained further voices on the board and Tiger Woods made obvious his sentiments on the matter.

This comes with some problems. First, let’s be very clear. There is no viable business case for the current deals being signed for players. Yes: Jon Rahm is a very, very good golfer. But, he is simply not worth $US500m for a deal rumoured to be for 3-5 years. To put the number in perspective, the PGA Tour generates about 10% of the revenue of the NBA. Rahm’s deal alone is worth about a third of all revenue generated by golf in a year from all sources. It is roughly double the highest paid NBA player.

Unlike PIF, other entities expect and need a return on their investment. The Saudi PIF have already demonstrated they don’t necessarily care about a direct financial return from buying professional golf. More, they may benefit indirectly through sports washing and non-linear business deals made adjacent to LIV tournaments.

Therefore, it’s a reasonable assumption any money invested by Fenway will not be to the exorbitant extents PIF are offering. It could provide a temporary solution. But it is unlikely sustainable for more than a few years to compete with LIV. Whether LIV agree to allow SSG a seat at the table in a triangular agreement remains to be seen.

Scenario 3: LIV PGA Tour talks dissolve

This possibility likely sends a shiver down the spines of golf fans. The status quo would be a huge blow to golf fans. Perhaps we were blissfully naive as fans to be able to watch all the best players regularly compete against one another. But there is a real chance we don’t see those times again for the foreseeable future.

Further, the move of Jon Rahm is likely to see others follow. It provides real legitimacy to the LIV Tour; a feather in their cap that we can expect them to roll-out frequently. It could result in a further fracturing of the best players in the game. For a somewhat niche sport that lacks global appeal, it means spreading to little butter over too much bread. The resulting reduction in viewership and subsequently revenue would be devastating to the game as we know it.

It is already the case that many arm-chair golf fans tune in only for the majors and that’s about it. The continued fractured tours would only amplify that phenomenon.

The death of the journeyman golfer

Irrespective of what deal (or lack thereof) is struck, one thing does seem certain. The concentration of funding is all pointing towards the elite of the game. That is unsustainable for the sport, resulting in less funding for those who have previously made a comfortable living from golf without setting the world alight. If you are ranked outside the top 100 in the world, the life as a professional golfer will inevitably look quite different.

In many ways, that is a real shame. The beauty of golf is that any player can win on their day. The David and Goliath stories of Rocco Mediate going against the G.O.A.T. will be all that more infrequent. Fields of 140+ players and even having a cut could well be a thing of the past. For many players, making that cut can mean the difference between keeping their tour card or returning to the lower ranks for another attempt. All of that makes for compelling storylines; the types of tales that keep bringing us back to the sport.

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1 year ago 0 comments

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Qatar Masters Picks & Advice: Everything You Need to Know About Doha Golf Club

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 1 year ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

Doha Golf Club again plays host to our Qatar Masters picks

With just the one tournament this week, the eyes of the golfing world turn to the Qatar Masters on the DP World Tour. We have had an excellent record in national opens this season. We have correctly included the winner in our selections for the Canadian Open (Taylor 66/1), US Open (Clark 80/1), British Masters (Hillier 80/1), Irish Open (Norrman 45/1), and the Open de Espana (Pavon 80/1). An excellent omen for our Qatar Masters picks!

This tournament has shifted about a bit over the past few years. Originally held as part of the “Desert Swing” in January, it shifted to March, yet now pops up on the calendar at the end of October. It should not make too much difference to the golfer profile we search for this week, but more on this in our weather analysis. It does, however, mean that the tournament takes on added significance as the final event of the regular schedule. This is the last chance for many players to secure their DP World Tour playing rights for 2024. It is also a final opportunity to qualify for the Nedbank Challenge and DP World Tour Championship in the coming month. I’m looking forward to attending the latter in Dubai, so I will make sure to post some pictures in the Win Daily Discord for all our premium members.

ZOZO Championship Recap

We had the 36 hole leader on both the PGA Tour and DP World Tour for another week with multiple options in contention. At the ZOZO Championship, Beau Hossler once again put himself in prime position. Our Premium members will know we have been on Hossler for the past three weeks. Notably, his approach play is showing some great improvement. Typically a long driver of the golf ball with excellent putting, addressing the weakest part of his game will see him win on the PGA Tour in the near future. He eventually finished 2nd for a full place payout at equivalent odds of +600.

That was behind an impressive Morikawa, who ended his dry spell in emphatic fashion. I’ll admit I did hold concerns for Morikawa in the high winds forecast in rounds 1 and 2. To some extent, that did come to fruition. Morikawa was back at even par four holes into his 3rd round. He then miraculously played his final 32 holes at 14 under to win by some margin. We also had Cam Davis, who was 8th at the 36 hole mark and eventually just missed out on place money in 12th. Xander was 4th at halfway, but a dreadful weekend saw him tumble well out of contention.

Andalucia Masters Recap

The DP World Tour remained in Spain for the Andalucia Masters. With a new course, some guess work was required. We got it spot on for the weather draw, with a decent weather edge for those avoiding the highest winds. Our key course comp of Al Hamra also proved true, with winner Adrian Meronk having finished 4th and 6th in his two appearances at the Ras Al Khaimah Championship.

Despite the course favouring longer hitters, it was the accurate Spaniard Adrian Otaegui who held the 36 hole lead for us. He was well in contention entering Sunday, including playing his first 48 holes bogey free despite high winds. To his credit, he pushed hard for victory firing at every pin. That is all you can really ask for a golfer in such position, although it did eventually cost us another full place payout finishing 9th.

Our 140/1 selection Adri Arnaus also came out firing in the 3rd round, shooting up the leaderboard to join Otaegui in the lead on Saturday. He faded slightly in the final round, but a 19th place finish was good enough for a partial Top 20 payout and a Top 40 hit. We also cashed a Top 20 bet on Sebastian Soderberg in 19th, again reduced due to dead-heat rules.

Doha Golf Club Course Analysis

Heading into our Qatar Masters picks, Doha Golf Club plays host once again. This course has played host to this tournament since 1998, except in 2020 and 2021 when the event was held at neighbouring Education City Golf Club. Therefore, it is important to ensure you read course history rather than tournament history when analyzing your data.

Course form also proves to be more “sticky” here than other venues. You should give more weighting to prior performance here than on other courses. Basically, if golfers have played well here before they are statistically more likely to do so again. Conversely, do not be surprised if players in form don’t carry that with them to Doha have they struggled here previously.

I’ve previously referred to this course as one of the “faux links” we see on the DP World Tour. The course is designed by Peter Harradine, but it is the work of Kyle Phillips that provides the most guidance. Phillips designed Kingsbarns, one of the regular courses from the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship rotation. He also created other faux links courses Yas Links, in Abu Dhabi, and Bernardus, an inland but exposed links course hosting the KLM Open. The former also has paspalum grass. Paspalum is often found in ocean side and tropical courses, due to it’s sturdy nature and higher salt tolerance.

The key reason for all this is wind. The course is very exposed, with virtually no protection from the winds. Fairways and greens are undulating and well bunkered. Certainly, the course demands a specific skillset you don’t often see for the majority of the season.

Course Comps for our Qatar Masters Picks

For all the aforementioned reasons, our course comps are dominated by links form. The Alfred Dunhill Links and, to some extent, The Open Championship have been good guides here. Likewise, the Kyle Phillips designed Yas Links and Bernardus provide good correlations to Doha Golf Club.

Yet it is another Phillips design which is perhaps the best course comp to guide your Qatar Masters picks. Verdura Golf Club hosted the Sicilian Open on four occasions. However, the correlation is significant.

Alvaro Quiros has won at both courses. Michael Lorenzo-Vera finished 2nd there in his one appearance and has a record in Doha of 30-59-4-10-2. Thorbjorn Olesen won at Verdura (having also won and finished runner-up at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship). He has a 2nd and 3rd at Doha GC. Chris Wood, who was 5th as an amateur at The Open then 3rd the next year, finished runner-up to Olesen at Verdura and then won in Doha the next year. Joakim Lagergren went the other way. He finished runner-up at the Qatar Masters and then won at Verdura the following here.

Education City form shouldn’t be completely thrown away, Campillo having won on that course and holding a good record on this track. Likewise, general form in the Middle East is seen as a positive for our Qatar Masters Picks.

Weather for our Qatar Masters Picks

As mentioned, the tournament has shifted from March to October this year. Conditions should present quite similar. Both March and October are in the shoulder season, with temperatures consistently in the range of 30-35C (high 80s-low 90s for those metrically opposed).

What is also consistent is the wind. All coastal Middle East golf courses experience a sea breeze from early afternoon. As the land heats up, air rises and creates a lower pressure area. This causes the air above the ocean to move onshore. When I was learning to play golf in Dubai, you could almost predict when these winds would hit to the minute. The impact was also severe, and playing longer holes into the high winds became very difficult.

This week, Thursday morning provides for the lowest winds of the two rounds prior to the cut. Friday morning will also present better conditions than the afternoon. However, some moderate winds will start building a couple of hours earlier than Thursday. Although no significant weather edge exists for our Qatar Masters picks, general ability to play in the wind is essential to success here.

Qatar Masters Picks

Suggested Staking

Thorbjorn Olesen
2.5pt E/W +2500 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Ewen Ferguson – Your Qatar Masters Picks Favourite
2.5pt E/W +2800 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Adrian Otaegui
2.5pt E/W +3300 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Sebastian Soderberg
2pt E/W +6000 (William Hill with 8 palces 1/5 odds)

Jeff Winther
1pt E/W +6600 (Bet365 with 8 palces 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +350 (TAB)

Michael Lorenzo-Vera
1pt E/W +7000 (Bet365 with 8 palces 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +333 (TAB)

Matthew Jordan – Your Qatar Masters Picks Best Value
1pt E/W +8000 (Bet365 with 8 palces 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +335 (Unibet)

Will Besseling
0.5pt E/W +17500 (Bet365 with 8 palces 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +650 (TAB)
And
2pt Top 40 +240 (TAB)

Summary

Thank you reading our Qatar Masters picks article. Meanwhile, you can read an article with some insights on my golf analysis process when you click this link here!

Link into the WinDaily Discord channel here. You can ask myself and other experts direct questions for your DFS lineups and betting queries, as well as one-on-one coaching. Make sure you are linked in to your premium channel, as we often have exclusive betting plays within the Discord channels.

1 year ago 0 comments

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ZOZO Championship Picks: Everything You Need To Know About Narashino CC

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 1 year ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

Narashino Country Club plays host to our ZOZO Championship Picks

ANOTHER ONE. Another week and yet another winner from the pages of DeepDiveGolf! Mathieu Pavon completed a relatively stress free wire-to-wire victory paying a juicy 80/1. In a quirky stat, we’ve had a ridiculous run of winners at national opens. We’ve successfully picked the winner at the Canadian Open (Nick Taylor 66/1), US Open (Wyndham Clark 80/1), Irish Open (Vincent Norrman 45/1), and now Mathieu Pavon at 80/1 for the Open de Espana. You could convince me to add Daniel Hillier winning the British Masters at 80/1 to the list. And, although this is not a national open (the Japan Open Golf Championship was actually last week), we are in fine form for our ZOZO Championship picks.

I feel even more aggrieved now that we tipped Ryo Hisatsune in 3 out of the 4 tournaments before he won the Open de France at 100/1. If you’ve followed our suggested staking in 2023 using $10 per unit, then you are over $9,000 in profit.

The first many will notice about Narashino Country Club is that there are two greens on every hole. This is common in Japan and comes with many benefits. Firstly, having two greens allows one to be restored or undergo aeration whilst the other is played. Secondly, it allows variety for course members and regulars. Finally, in a country like Japan which has extremely hot and humid summers then snow in winter, it would be used by having different grass types on each green for the seasons.

https://x.com/PGATOUR/status/1187072948152061952?s=20

Narashino Country Club Course Analysis

Fortunately for analysis this week, the course will mostly use just one of the greens. Any shots that end on the other green will be eligible for free relief. However, do note we have seen them previously alternate between the greens on a few select holes.

The ZOZO Championship and Narashino CC makes for a tricky format and course to handicap. The usual strokes gained data are not recorded without trackman travelling to Japan. A reduced field and no cut also adds a wrinkle to the format for our ZOZO Championship picks. Basically, with all golfers playing 4 rounds the cream tends to eventually rise to the top. Analysis of previous leaderboards here and from the 2020 Tokyo Olympics, good drive percentage should be a useful stat this week. It doesn’t necessarily matter if you are long off the tee or straight, just that you do one. If you can have both, that is certainly a bonus but reduces the pool largely to the elite.

Another key to our guidance this week is approach from 150-200 yards. Golfers will see 1.5-2 strokes more within this bracket each round, depending on driving distance. This means roughly 60% of approach will fall within this yardage. Looking through prior leaderboards, players who have played well here are also high in the rankings within this yardage.

Tree-lined fairways are carpeted with zoysiagrass. This unique grass is polarizing and seen rarely on the PGA Tour. Some golfers have remarked they like that this sturdy grass acts like your balls is teed up. Others golfers have lamented that the grass can produce flyers.

Finally, a solid short game is imperative. With a winning score likely to end in the -15 to -18 range again, key up and downs are key to maintaining momentum to compile a score.

Course Comps for our ZOZO Championship Picks

Last year’s winner, Keegan Bradley, provides a guide to course comps for our ZOZO Championship picks. Prior to his victory, he had also recorded a 7th and 13th in his three starts. TPC River Highlands, where he also won the Travelers Championship, has formlines as well as using similar bentgrass greens. Brendan Steele was runner up here on his first look and has 9 Top 25s at TPC River Highlands from 12 starts.

Bradley is also a winner at Firestone Country Club (former host of the Bridgestone Invitiational). Tiger Woods holds a ridiculous record there, and won on his sole start here in 2019 for perhaps his last PGA Tour victory. I dislike using Tiger as a guide, as he simply won almost everywhere he played. But 2019 Tiger was quite a different proposition, so it does seem relevant he won on first look here.

I also generally dislike using Augusta as a comp, as it obviously attracts the best field in golf. However, treelined fairways and undulations visually provide a comparison. Xander Schauffele won the Olympics gold medal in Tokyo 2020 and has finished in the top 10 at The Masters in 50% of his starts.

Xander is also a winner at The Old White TPC (former host of the Greenbrier Classic). Sebastian Munoz provides further links, finishing 4th at Narashino Country Club and a record of 3rd and 7th at The Old White TPC.

Finally, other zoysia fairway courses of TPC Southwind and TPC Craig Ranch can be used for approach play on this unique grass type.

Weather Forecast for our ZOZO Championship Picks

Weather could well be a factor across the first two days for our ZOZO Championship picks. Thursday morning has a small chance of fog delays and will be cold. Winds will pick up throughout the day, with gusts around 20mph from early afternoon. However, prevailing winds will remain relatively moderate.

Friday morning will again experience lower winds, before building substantially later in the afternoon. Winds could reach as high as 25mph prevailing with gusts above 40mph.

Although there are condensed tee times with the reduced field, there remains potential for a weather edge there. Those going off earliest on Friday morning should experience an advantage for at least 9 holes. If any fog delays do occur or there is a substantial temperature difference on Thursday, we could potentially see the edge move across both the first two rounds. I certainly don’t see the edge being sufficient to completely rule out a player from your player pool. However, it should play a factor in your decisions this week. Especially, in situations when deciding between two similar players for DFS purposes.

ZOZO Championship Picks

Suggested Staking

Xander Schauffele – Your ZOZO Championship Picks Favourite
5pt E/W +800 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Cam Davis
4pt E/W +2000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Beau Hossler
2pt E/W +4000 (William Hill with 7 places 1/5 odds)

Tom Hoge – Your ZOZO Championship Picks Best Value
1pt E/W +6600 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +200 (Unibet)

Michael Kim
0.5pt E/W +10000 (William Hill with 7 places 1/5 odds)
And
3pt Top 20 +240 (William Hill)

Summary

Thank you reading our ZOZO Championship picks article. Meanwhile, you can read an article with some insights on my golf analysis process when you click this link here!

1 year ago 0 comments

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Everything You Need to Know for the Irish Open

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 2 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

The K Club plays as a majestic host for our Irish Open Picks

What a fabulous week it was once again for our picks at The European Masters. Alexander Bjork went extremely close to victory, an imperious Ludvig Aberg denying him the win with a stunning final 5 holes. Aberg continues to impress and is surely the most exciting prospect in European golf since Hovland and Rahm burst onto the scene. Masahiro Kawamura was put in these pages at a huge 200/1 and duly finished 8th. For those with 8 place payouts this was reduced slightly from 40/1 due a tie for 8th, but we cash full tickets on a Top 20 and Top 40. Finally, Renato Paratore at 150/1 and Ryo Hisatsune at 80/1 both finished in 13th. That was one shot off two more big place payouts and both were good for Top 20/40 options. Barring the winner, that is just about as good as it gets. With the European Ryder Cup team now set following Luke Donald’s captain’s picks, the attention turns to the magnificent K Club in County Kildare for our Irish Open Picks.

The K Club Course Analysis

The Irish Open changes venues this year, albeit to a familiar and iconic course. The Arnold Palmer North Course at The K Club perhaps most famously hosted the 2006 Ryder Cup. The Europeans romped to a 9 point victory that year. Hopefully, you already got on Europe at +210 per our recommendation in the WinDaily Sports Discord. They have since narrowed to just +125 with multiple players in excellent form.

The course also previously hosted one edition of the Irish Open in 2016 and was the previous host for the European Open between 1995-2007.

Perusing those leaderboards and data, there are a few key metrics that standout. The winner here has also led the field in Greens In Regulation for the last three tournaments. The course puts an emphasis on excellent approach play, particularly from 125-175 yards.

Finding fairways is also a key here. With numerous water hazards of the tee and trees right up to the fairway, keeping the ball in play is imperative. Despite it’s length on paper of 7,441 yards, there are two par 5s over 580 yards eating a lot of that yardage. Conversely, there are no short par 4s seeing an average length of an approachable 438 yards for the par 4s. Nobody has really come here and dominated it with the driver. Driving accuracy should be your guide.

Comp Courses for our Irish Open Picks

Immediately looking at the course, it always strikes me as very similar to the Brabazon Course at The Belfry. With the British Masters held in May, this also provides at least a smattering of similar recent form being held less than 3 months ago. Both rely heavily on excellent approach play and driving accuracy, with each dotted with water hazards significantly in play.

There are also some strong links to leaderboards at the European Masters host Crans-sur-Sierre. Collin Montgomerie, Lee Westwood, Mathias Gronberg all won at both. Michael Campbell won at The K Club and had a 2nd at Crans. Graeme Storm and Paul Lawrie had a runner-up at both. Bradley Dredge and Constantino Rocca both had a runner-up at K Club, then won and also had a 2nd place finish at Crans. Admittedly, some of these names were at the height of their powers in Europe at the time. But the correlation between some of the lower tiered names should not be discounted so readily. This also has the added benefit given the tournament was hosted at Crans just last week, allowing for some strong recent form.

Weather

As always, I should caution any conversation about weather when it comes with Ireland to the simple fact it is more volatile than other regions of the world. Weather does frequently develop over the Atlantic and move over the island, leading to the copious green pastures that Ireland is famous for.

It has also been a notoriously bad summer in the region. Heavy rain should see the rough plenty thick and juicy, with the fairways playing slow and soft. This should lead to a further increase in driving accuracy. Holding the fairway should be easier if found and the penalty for missing more severe.

Thursday AM looks to be the calmest conditions of that day, before winds gradually increase into the evening. Friday promises calm conditions all day with ideal scoring conditions. No strong advantage appears at time of writing for any particular tee-time.

Irish Open Picks

Golf Betting Tips and Suggested Staking

Ryan Fox – Your Irish Open Picks Favourite
2pts E/W +4000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Vincent Norrman
2pts E/W +4500 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Thorbjorn Olesen
1pt E/W +6600 (Unibet with 6 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +300 (TAB)

Eddie Pepperell – Your Irish Open Picks Best Value
1pt E/W +7000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +333 (TAB)

Jorge Campillo
1pt E/W +11000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +450 (TAB)

James Morrison
0.5pt +35000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +800 (Bet365)
And
3pt Top 40 +333 (TAB)

Soren Kjeldsen
0.5pt +40000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +1100 (TAB)
And
3pt Top 40 +400 (TAB)

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Summary

Thank you reading our Irish Open picks article. Meanwhile, you can read an article with some insights on my golf analysis process when you click this link here!

Link into the WinDaily Discord channel here. You can ask myself and other experts direct questions for your DFS lineups and betting queries, as well as one-on-one coaching!

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2 years ago 0 comments

PGA Sports Betting

The 151st Open Championship Picks

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 2 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

Claret jug sits at Hoylake Royal Liverpool Golf Club, host for our 151st The Open Championship Picks

Golf snobs will be delighted for the return to Royal Liverpool Golf Club, colloquially known as Hoylake, for the 151st Open Championship. Although last week’s Genesis Scottish Open offers up similar-ish conditions, The Renaissance Club can really only be described at links golf lite. For many, performance on links track remains the true test of golf. It has perennially been an examination of all aspects of a golfers game. Further, one that has managed to largely avoid the increasing advantage of the long drivers that now dominate the leaderboards across the globe. This course is iconic and provides a rugged yet beautiful test for our Open Championship picks.

We were oh so close to yet another winner at the Scottish Open. Rory McIlroy won in near impossible circumstances and continues to impress, as he arrives at a course he won at in 2014. We had just two selections last week with a unit stake over 1. They were Scottie Scheffler, who finished 3rd in typical fashion, and Tyrrell Hatton. Hatton particularly had a 2 shot lead into the last 9 holes, before throwing that away over 6 holes to wind up 6th. That was also in rather typical fashion for what has been a frustrating year for the Brit. We also had young Scot Ewen Ferguson continuing to impress. He was put up at a massive 250/1 and finished up in 12th, just two shots outside the place money but sufficient to cash both Top 20 and Top 40 bets he had recommended.

Royal Liverpool Golf Club Hoylake – Course Analysis

Royal Liverpool Golf Club presents as a stern test for the Open picks. The first, and perhaps more notable feature, are the 6 internal out of bounds areas for the golfers to avoid. For the uninitiated, finding OB off the tee is not just a penalty shot but also loss of distance. It is one of the harshest penalties a golfer can face in regular circumstances. The scary thing with Hoylake is that these areas are often mere yards from the fairway. It does not take much here for things to go very, very wrong. Not something we want for our Open Championship picks!

Further adding to this are strategically placed fairway bunkers. Often occurring right in the key landing distances, these bunkers are deep with extreme faces. They should be viewed as you would a water hazard. The same bunkers are littered around the greens, with many areas shaved and slope to feed your golf ball right to the bottom of the pit.

And yet, we are not done with the hazards here. Thick gorse bushes are found around the course and, again, just mere yards off the relatively narrow fairways. Gorse presents extremely thick bushes with sturdy branches. If finding your ball in them is near impossible, hitting a shot from them certainly is.

Ideal Player Profile for The Open Championship picks

What this means is you can’t simply rip driver here whenever you like. You will need to be extremely strategic and display exquisite course management to be successful. If you can be both long and consistently straight off the tee, then that is obviously best. It is hard to see a winner outside the really great drivers of the golf ball.

Otherwise, driving accuracy would be the preference for our Open Championship picks. Preference is given to long drivers comfortable using iron off the tee when strategically appropriate. Many holes require the player to draw the golf ball so this should also be noted. As always, approach will be a factor. Lesser weighting is given to around the green and putting than those two factors.

Short game is obviously imperative in links golf, so these aren’t discounted entirely. This is given many around the green shots are subject to a little luck where the ball lands in the bunker, lessening some of the around the green skill. With putting, the slower than normal greens provide a moderately easier test.

Course Comps for Royal Liverpool

Hoylake provides a very different test off the tee than last year’s host at the Old Course at St Andrews. That course features huge 100 yard wide fairways and nothing to penal in terms of hazards when driving. A much better comparison can be found at the 2019 Open Championship host Portrush. Visually they are much a like, but they also both have a draw preference to their layout.

A somewhat obscure comparison can be made between the Qatar Masters host, Doha Golf Club. That tournament has thrown out a number of Open Championship winners or likely contenders. That includes Sergio Garcia, Adam Scott, Ernie Els, Henrik Stenson, and Paul Lawrie. The course is a Kyle Phillips design, the same designer of Kingsbarns. That course features in the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship rotation, another solid form guide to The Open Championship picks.

For the PGA Tour players, the difficulty comes that they really don’t have any links courses in the USA. Some parallels can be extracted through correlation. First, TPC Sawgrass and Augusta National have provided similar names to the prior Open Championship leaderboards hosted here in 2006 and 2014. They ask similar questions in different ways. The Players requires driving accuracy off the tee with heavy penalty if too wayward. Augusta National requires a strong driver, with excellent approach and around the green play.

Finally, The Honda Classic host PGA National is a great look. Padraig Harrington is a two time champion both at The Open Championship and there. McIlroy, Els, Scott, and Rickie Fowler also dot both the leaderboards there and are either Open Championship winners or runner ups. Any PGA Tour players who have played somewhat well in Scottish Open is a nice bonus for The Open Championship picks.

Weather

Foremost when considering the weather, you should note the unique format at The Open Championship. It is tradition that all players start on the 1st tee. As such, tee times cover a huge range from the early first sunlight hours of 6:35am through to those finishing in twilight at 4:16pm.

This presents a unique question for weather. Typically, coastal areas experience increased wind levels from midday through to late afternoon. This though does tend to fade as it enters evening. The main cause for this is the colder air over the seas moves towards the warmer air over land as it heats up, rises, and creates a low pressure area for the winds to advance.

This rings true across both Thursday and Friday. Of the first two days, Friday looks to be the windier of the two. Rain also looks to be a factor and consistent across the tournament.

Preference is given to those with a very early tee time Friday, which should present the best conditions of that day. Simply though, the key is to not find a golfer stuck in the middle ground for our Open Championship picks. I want golfers who get to take advantage of at least one decent true morning start. Those very late in the day may experience a small benefit too. The risk is ending up stuck with a late morning tee time, when winds are already picking up, and then ending up in the afternoon the next day. This should be avoided wherever possible.

151st The Open Championship Picks

Headline Picks

Patrick Cantlay – Your 151st Open Championship Picks Favourite
2.5pts E/W +2200 (Bet365 with 8 places, 1/5 odds) with 25% Bet Boost

Shane Lowry
2.5pts E/W +3300 (Bet365 with 8 places, 1/5 odds)

Max Homa
2.5pts E/W +5000 (Bet365 with 8 places, 1/5 odds)

Adam Scott
1pt E/W +6600 (Bet365 with 8 places, 1/5 odds)
And
2pts Top 20 +280 (Bet365)

Corey Conners – Your 151st Open Championship Picks Best Value
1pt E/W +8000 (Bet365 with 8 places, 1/5 odds)
And
2pts Top 20 +280 (Bet365)

Ryan Fox
1pt E/W +9000 (Bet365 with 8 places, 1/5 odds)
And
2pts Top 20 +335 (Unibet)

[tallysight url=”https://tallysight.com/new/widget/betslip/1689788095069-adc9-920?id=63fbd158-d2f7-427a-8852-862667446fda”]

Long-Shot Bombs

Note that, as per the Scottish Open, I like to include some long-shot bombs. This comes due to the potential volatility inherent in links golf, presenting opportunities further down the board at inflated prices. This is combined along with the specialist nature that players can develop specific to links courses. You’ll see that the win stake on these is heavily reduced, with the main focus on obtaining exposure in Top 20 and Top 40 markets.

Matthew Jordan
0.25pt E/W +20000 (Bet365 with 8 places, 1/5 odds)
And
2.5pt Top 40 +175

Kurt Kitayama
0.25pt E/W +20000 (Bet365 with 8 places, 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +700 (TAB)
And
2.5pt Top 40 +240 (TAB)

Alex Noren – Your 151st Open Championship Best Long-Shot Bomb
0.25pt E/W +25000 (Bet365 with 8 places, 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +700 (TAB)
And
3.5pt Top 40 +230 (TAB)

Ewen Ferguson
0.25pt E/W +30000 (Bet365 with 8 places, 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +650 (Unibet)
And
2.5pt Top 40 +210 (Bet365)

Victor Perez
0.25pt E/W +35000 (Unibet with 7 places, 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +750 (Unibet)
And
2.5pt Top 40 +210 (TAB)

Matt Wallace
0.25pt E/W +40000 (Bet365 with 8 places, 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +900 (Unibet)
And
2.5pt Top 40 +320 (TAB)

Matthew Southgate
0.25pt E/W +50000 (Bet365 with 8 places, 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +1000 (William Hill)
And
2.5pt Top 40 +300 (Bet365)

[tallysight url=”https://tallysight.com/new/widget/betslip/1689788884589-adc9-136?id=c7dca0c6-4471-4b0b-abe5-1615eb7f10a4″]

Player Profiles for The Open Championship Picks

Patrick Cantlay – Your 151st Open Championship Picks Favourite

Cases can be made for all of Scheffler, McIlroy, Rahm, Cam Smith, and Koepka. The fact is that, if anything, they are likely priced very correctly in the market and often below fair odds. This is a volatile tournament and fading the favourites is something we almost just have to do. There is little in the way of value there.

Although somewhat disappointed to miss the opening 30/1 which we liked, I’m still happy to side with Cantlay at the top of the board. The 22/1 on offer can be inflated by 25% with Bet365, which I recommend doing if you have access to that bookmaker.

Look, I know what you’re thinking. Cantlay sucks in majors. I get it. The question comes, do we simply think Cantlay will never win a major? I’m not convinced that will be the case when his career is all said and done. What should also be noted is he is now on a run of 5 consecutive finishes of 14th or better in majors. A good start is imperative to his chances of success, something he can hopefully obtain with a morning tee time Thursday.

Cantlay is one of the strongest drivers in the game. Over the past 6 months, he is the 12th in this field for driving accuracy despite being long off the tee. That jumps to 7th if looking at the last 3 months. Further, he is leader for par 5 scoring on the PGA Tour, a stat he also led in 2022. He has already shown an aptitude for links golf with finishes of 8th and 12th in the Open previously. I expect him to be in the mix come Sunday. Here’s hoping he can then shut the door and silence the critics.

Shane Lowry

Lowry is once again quietly putting together an impressive season. He is one of a small smattering of golfers who have finished in the Top 20 in every major for 2023. That includes 16th and 3rd at The Masters, which should be somewhat correlated to here.

Beyond the obvious correlations from being The Open winner at Portrush, one of the better past courses for guidance here, he has a great record at other comp courses. This includes finishes of 2nd and 5th at the Honda Classic for the past two years and 3 finishes of 16th or better at The Players.

Last week’s Scottish Open was eye catching given a large spike in his short game performance. Typically the weakest element of his game, he wound up 12th despite not possessing his best approach week. A return to normality with his ball striking numbers will see him go close here if he putts even half as well as he did in Scotland.

Max Homa

Look, I know what you’re thinking. Homa sucks in majors. I get it. Much like Cantlay though, I suspect we will see Homa as a major champion at some point in his career and The Open Championship seems to fit well.

Homa has impressed recently at The Players, with finishes of 6th an 13th at his last two appearances. That course rewards both long and straight drivers of the ball, which Homa possesses in spades. Homa’s victories have often come in tough conditions, particularly when it is raining. His wins at the Fortinet Championship and Wells Fargo Championship come to mind. Both were wet tournaments, but also on courses favouring accuracy off the tee. All of his 8 victories bar one have come at scores from -8 to -16. With likely winning score here likely to be in the -12 to -15 range, that fits right in his pocket.

As the 8th best golfer in the world, we are getting an inflated price at 50/1 here. An avid fan of golf history, he is well aware of the special place The Open holds in the world of golf. He would make for a worthy champion.

Adam Scott

We were on Adam Scott last week, who missed the cut right on the number. That may not end up a bad thing, given the volatile winds over the weekend and very early starts that ensued. If not in contention, he was likely best to pack up and head down to Hoylake a little in advance.

He arrives at a course where he finished 8th and 5th in the prior to renditions hosted at Royal Liverpool. Further building to his links (pun unintended) are his two wins at the Qatar Masters and a win at the Honda Classic. Alongside those impeccable credentials are a multitude of top 20s at The Players and a green jacket. Scott could well be the veteran who pops up here for a major win towards the end of a stellar career.

Corey Conners – Your 151st Open Championship Picks Best Value

Conners quietly went about building a decent links warm-up last week with a 19th placed finished at the Scottish Open. We also saw a large increase in driving accuracy but, most notably for Conners, a good week putting.

Conners is long and straight off the tee, rankings 11th in SG:OTT over the last 3, 6, and 12 months and 8th if looking over 2 years. 15th and 28th at the past two Opens suggest he isn’t completely foreign to links golf. He also boasts a great record at Augusta National with a run of 6th, 8th, and 10th at The Masters between 2020-2022. 12th at the PGA Championship is also not the worst guide, with a course that played very well but featured incredibly penal rough if straying a couple yards off the fairway. Should he find a half decent putter, he is a shout to surprise a few here.

Ryan Fox

Patriotism aside, Ryan Fox could well be a sneaky look to sneak another claret jug for New Zealand here. Fox has had a sterling few years as his game continues to grow. He continued that with a 12th place finish last week at the Scottish Open, where he has a previous 4th in 2017.

Not adverse to windy conditions, Foxy has already displayed some of his best on links courses. We saw that in his most notable victory, winning the 2022 Alfred Dunhill Links in sometimes torrid conditions. He also surprised for a 16th at the 2019 Open at Portrush. That came well before the levels we see him playing at now and broke a run of 7 consecutive missed cuts. He also follows those performances at other courses where he is equally happy using a 2 iron off the tree. The Soudal Open comes to mind, where he finished 2nd on a very narrow test hindered when his 2 iron shaft actually cracked on the final day.

He also owns the course record at his home course, Te Arai Links, which he broke in February this year. He shot a 60 there: https://www.europeantour.com/dpworld-tour/news/articles/detail/ryan-fox-breaks-course-record-at-te-arai-links-on-trip-back-home/

If you want to look at similarities, simply go and look at some of the photos of that beautiful piece of land.

I asked in my recent interview with Ryan Fox about what it is about links golf suits his game so well. He pointed to the fact he prefers tests where he feels he doesn’t have to make birdie every hole. That more strategic, methodical approach gives me faith he will put the driver away when needed. When he gets to the par 5s and par 4s, he can let the big dog eat and attack some of those longer holes. Go well Foxy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TzUk1Qjj6so&t=339s

Summary

Finally, thank you reading our 151st The Open Championship picks. Meanwhile, you can read an article with some insights on my golf analysis process check this link here!

Link into the WinDaily Discord channel here. You can ask myself and other experts direct questions for your DFS lineups and betting queries, as well as one-on-one coaching!

PROMO: Use code “GREEN” or “WINBIG” when signing up to receive a one week no obligation free trial.

Obviously this includes all our premium content, personalized advice, Discord premium chat, and future articles. Make sure you are signed up to WinDaily Gold!

2 years ago 0 comments

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John Deere Classic Picks and Advice: All You Need To Know

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 2 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

TPC Deere Run hosts our John Deere Classic picks

What a year we are having! Daniel Hillier secured yet another victory from our selections over on the DP World Tour. The 80/1 long-shot secured the British Masters with a stunning final 9 holes, including going eagle-birdie-eagle before a clutch par putt on the 18th. Let’s look for another winner with our John Deere Classic picks.

https://twitter.com/deepdivegolf/status/1675531476836974597?s=20

Hillier made an obvious selection. He had finished 3rd and 5th in two of his three most recent appearances. Realistically, he was in a position to win one if not both of those tournaments. But, the secret sauce actually came from a 2021 Challenge Tour event. The 2021 British Challenge was hosted on the same course at The Belfry. Obviously, it was an easier setup than the DP World Tour tournaments played at the same venue. Hillier finished 14th that week. However, Hillier was the best player in the field over the last three rounds. Likely this was missed by many, but not when we are @DeepDiveGolf!

Course Analysis for our John Deere Classic Picks

TPC Deere Run plays host to this event, as it has since 2000. This short 7,289 yard par-71 completes what should really be coined the wedge, putting contest, birdie-fest swing. A low winning score of between -20 to -25 is likely this week.

The course offers up very little defense. A quick peruse through past leaderboards makes clear driving accuracy is at a premium here for our John Deere Classic picks. The 2017 edition, battled between DeChambeau and Rodgers, provides the sole exception. Rough is reasonably thick at 4 inches, although fairways are not that narrow. Players simply need to be providing themselves a multitude of birdie looks here from within 15 feet. That is best achieved through finding the short grass off the tee. It is an essential element to your John Deere Classic picks.

There will be a disproportionate number of shots between 50-100 yards and, particularly, 100-150 yards. This been the same recipe as seen recently at the RBC Canadian Open, Travelers Championship, and Rocket Mortgage Classic. Over 60% of shots are from 100-200 yards. This is further emphasized given the majority of approach shots over 200 yards will occur on the par 5s and two of the par 3s being over 200 yards.

I will be putting less weighting on putting here than other models. The greens are relatively simple and true, being bentgrass. There is little in the way of undulations or complicated reading here. I’d much rather narrow the focus on fairway finders who will be giving themselves plenty of birdie looks due to elite wedge play.

Key metrics: Driving accuracy, Approach 100-150 yards, Approach 50-100 yards.

Course Comps for TPC Deere Run

Chiefly, a number of recent courses are used as guidance for your John Deere Classic picks. Detroit Golf Club, TPC River Highlands, and Oakdale Golf & Country Club all emphasize accuracy and a disproportionate number of wedge shots. They also provide bentgrass within their green complexes. These courses balance a nice combination of recent form as well as being correlated to what we expect this week.

Other correlations for John Deere Classic picks are at Waialae Golf Club, Sedgefield Country Club, and the American Express tournament. All emphasize driving accuracy and a high number of wedge shots. Therefore, as Jon Rahm infamously described one of the aforementioned, they become a bit of a putting contest.

Weather

There appear to be few pitfalls in the weather this week. Winds look relatively consistent across both Thursday and Friday and any potential weather edge does appear minimal.

There is a small chance of some raining on Wednesday evening. Certainly, this may lead to a softening of conditions for those out Thursday morning. However, the advantage should be minimal. Therefore, this does not factor into our John Deere Classic picks. However, I would provide a small uptick for any lower priced options you are considering in DFS who are going out early in round 1.

John Deere Classic Picks

Suggested Staking

Russell Henley – Your John Deere Classic Picks favourite
3pts E/W +1600 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Chris Kirk
2.5pts E/W +3000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Stephan Jaeger
2pts E/W +4000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Alex Smalley
2pts E/W +4500 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Brendon Todd
1pt E/W +7500 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pts Top 20 +350 (TAB)

David Lipsky
1pt E/W +12500 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And 2pts
Top 20 +450 (Bet365)

Zac Blair
0.5pts +17500 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +600 (Bet365)
And
2pts Top 40 +240 (TAB)

Satoshi Kodaira – Your John Deere Classic Picks best value
0.5pts +35000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +1200 (Unibet)
And
2pts Top 40 +333 (Bet365)

Summary

Finally, thank you reading our 2023 John Deere Classic picks. Meanwhile, you can read an article with some insights on my golf analysis process check this link here!

Link into the WinDaily Discord channel here. You can ask direct questions for your DFS lineups with all of our experts, as well as one-on-one coaching!

PROMO: Use code “GREEN” or “WINBIG” when signing up to receive a one week no obligation free trial.

Obviously this includes all our premium content, personalized advice, Discord premium chat, and future articles. Make sure you are signed up to WinDaily Gold!

2 years ago 0 comments

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Rocket Mortgage Classic Picks and Advice: All You Need to Know

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 2 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

Detroit Golf Club hosts our Rocket Mortgage Classic Picks

It looked for the first two days of The Travelers Championship as we were well on track for the three-peat. Following winners of Nick Taylor 66/1 and Wyndham Clark 80/1, Denny McCarthy led across the first two rounds. Unfortunately, a rare cold putter in the 3rd round saw him fall out of contention. He still collected a full place payout for us along with the Top 20 money to keep the ball rolling. It looks like another birdie fest is instore for our Rocket Mortgage Classic picks.

Course Analysis

Nestled in the heart of Detroit lies the magnificent Detroit Golf Club, a captivating haven for golfers seeking a true test of their skills. With its meticulously manicured fairways, undulating greens, and strategic bunkering, this Donald Ross masterpiece offers an ideal setting for our Rocket Mortgage Classic picks.

Many people will simply look at the list of winners and believe this is a bombers paradise. Seeing names such as Tony Finau, Cam Davis, and Bryson DeChambeau battling Matthew Wolff could lead some to believe driving distance is essential here. That can be a fallacy many fall into. I prefer taking a much more nuanced approach.

We have also seen many shorter but accurate hitters also find success here. Chris Kirk, Troy Merritt, and J.J. Spaun top the list of the best course history here for those with more than 12 rounds played despite being shorter hitters.

What these players do share in common is they are consistently gaining strokes on approach from 50-150 yards. More than 50% of shots will occur from this range. This is significant, especially when you account for Par 3s and Par 5s that are always naturally going to demand longer irons no matter which course you play.

Comp Courses

Sedgefield Country Club is another Donald Ross design featuring tree lined fairways and a reputation as a birdie fest. There are correlating links between the The American Express, not just through Rahm’s infamous putting contest remark but the disproportionate number of wedge shots required there.

Recent results at The Travelers Championship and this year’s Canadian Open host Oakdale Golf and Country Club are noted. These tournaments both feature a large number of wedge shots, tree lined fairways, and greens featuring a bentgrass/poa annua mix. They provide a nice balance between correlated metrics and recent form arriving here for our Rocket Mortgage Classic picks.

Weather for our Rocket Mortgage Classic Picks

There does appear to be a minor weather edge developing for our Rocket Mortgage Classic picks. Golfers fortunate enough to tee off on Thursday morning and continue their second round on Friday afternoon might benefit from calmer conditions, as the forecast suggests a light breeze and moderate temperatures during these periods. Potential thunderstorms Friday afternoon could delay play. Therefore, this would see those golfers get to finish their rounds under calm conditions Saturday morning. This favorable weather window could potentially yield lower scores and provide an advantage for those players.

In contrast, competitors teeing off on Thursday afternoon and continuing their second round on Friday morning might encounter slightly more challenging conditions. The forecast indicates an increase in wind speeds and possible showers during these timeframes.

We predict the scoring advantage to fall in the range of 0.50-0.75 strokes on average. This is likely insufficient to take me off premium players like Hideki Matsuyama. However, it is worthy on noting for lower tier options that the preference should be for them to come from the perceived better weather draw.

Rocket Mortgage Classic Picks

Suggested Staking

Hideki Matsuyama – Your Rocket Mortgage Classic Picks Favourite
2.5pt E/W +2000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Chris Kirk
2pt E/W +5000 (Bet365/William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Stephan Jaeger
2pt E/W +5000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Nicolai Hojgaard
1pt E/W +8000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +333 (William Hill/TAB)

Mark Hubbard
1pt E/W +8000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +350 (William Hill/TAB)

Joseph Bramlett – Your Rocket Mortgage Classic Picks Best Value
1.5pt E/W +9000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +400 (Bet365)

David Lipsky
0.5pt E/W +20000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +650 (Bet365)
And
2pt Top 40 +230 (Bet365)

Summary

Finally, thank you reading our 2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic picks. Meanwhile, you can read an article with some insights on my golf analysis process check this link here!

Link into the WinDaily Discord channel here. You can ask direct questions for your DFS lineups with all of our experts, as well as one-on-one coaching!

PROMO: Use code “GREEN” or “WINBIG” when signing up to receive a one week no obligation free trial.

Obviously this includes all our premium content, personalized advice, Discord premium chat, and future articles. Make sure you are signed up to WinDaily Gold!

2 years ago 0 comments

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DFS Rocket Mortgage Classic Overview

Richard Masana 2 years ago

written by Richard Masana

It’s week twenty-six of the PGA tour! Our crew has you covered for DFS Golf. This week we’re headed to Detroit Golf Club for the Rocket Mortgage Classic! We have all the content that you need, by podcast, live video, or article, whatever your preference.

At Win Daily Sports, we have a team of experts who will be producing all sorts of golf throughout the season. The goal is to have you covered for your Tournaments on every possible level!

Bettor Golf Podcast

Bettor Golf Podcast – Rocket Mortgage Classic

Nick Bretwisch and Spencer Aguiar are bringing the heat. Be sure to follow their weekly podcast all season!

PGA DraftCast

https://www.youtube.com/watch?reload=9&v=ceA04xx17g8

The OGs of PGA DFS Joel, Dave, Spencer, and Sia cover the Rocket Mortgage Classic in their weekly DraftCast video. The DraftCast is fun, informative, and sure to give you a couple of extra things to think about for every slate that you might miss at first look.

PGA Cheat Sheet

This weekly cheat sheet by StixPicks helps provide a roadmap for each week’s slate. Available Now!

PGA Ownership Report

In this weekly article from one of our pros, Steven Polardi, he helps us analyze/predict DraftKings ownership.

All You Need to Know

Dave Bieleski helps break down top picks in his weekly article available on Wednesdays.

DFS Golf Tutorial

Are you interested in golf but not familiar with DFS Golf? Fear no more, we have you covered in the breakdown below.

Golf DFS 101 – Top 5 Tips & Advice – Win Daily Sports

2 years ago 0 comments

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Travelers Championship Picks & Advice: All You Need To Know

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 2 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

TPC River Highlands host this week for our Travelers Championship Picks

Back-to-back winners! What a US Open we had, most notably selecting Wyndham Clark available in some markets as long as 80/1. This marked our second win in as many weeks, having also tipped Nick Taylor at 66/1 in the RBC Canadian Open. Likewise beyond Clark, we had additional winners from the week. We selected both Xander and Rickie in the First-Round leader market at 35/1 and 66/1 respectively. Additionally, Fowler secured us a full place payout and Xander a reduced place payout in 10th. Patrick Rodgers also locked in a Top 40 win for us, in an outstanding week of tipping! This now takes our PGA Tour record in 2023 to a whopping +718 units and a return on investment of 80%. However, there is no rest for the wicked as we go for a threepeat with our Travelers Championship Picks!

https://twitter.com/deepdivegolf/status/1671147586655522817?s=20

Course Analysis for our Travelers Championship Picks

TPC River Highlands plays host this week. The course has hosted this tournament in Cromwell, Connecticut since 1984. As such, we have a wealth of data to go on here and should be able to really narrow our player pool as a result.

Firstly, this provides quite a different test to what we have seen recently. TPC River Highlands is a narrow course with heavy rough and tree-lined fairways. It is one of the most correlated courses between driving accuracy and predicting future success.

Additionally, we will see a disproportionate number of shots under 150 yards this week. At just 6,852 yard par 70, this makes logical sense. Greens are again bentgrass overseeded with poa annua, so recent putting performance should be a fair indicator of how players will handle themselves on these surfaces.

Obviously, the recipe to success here has been relatively simple. Find the fairway, hit a good wedge shot, and make the putt. Scoring typically sits in the -15 to -20 range for the winner. We expect little different this week.

Course Comps to TPC River Highlands

Unsurprisingly, other courses with heavy weighting to driving accuracy and tree lined fairways display a good correlation to TPC River Highlands. We can also look to other Pete Dye designs for guidance, as these do all tend to play quite similar.

For our Travelers Championship picks, courses like Sedgefield and TPC Sawgrass provide obvious similarities. Certainly TPC Potomac provides very similar metrics, as does Austin Country Club. Obviously, the latter being a little more difficult being the host of the WGC Matchplay Championship.

Finally, the recent RBC Canadian Open course Oakdale Golf and Country Club looks very similar. That course featured thick rough, lots of wedge shots, and bentgrass putting surfaces. Obviously, this ticks the box nicely on both a course comp and, additionally, some signs of recent form.

Weather for our Travelers Championship Picks

There does appear to be a decent weather edge developing for our Travelers Championship Picks. Currently, Thursday will have light rain throughout the day. Winds should be steady between 6-9 mph all day. Gusts will increase from 16-18mph in the morning to 20-22 mph in the afternoon.

Friday looks to be where any edge may develop. Rain looks likely overnight and Friday AM winds look very calm. This should see Friday AM provide some of the best scoring conditions. Certainly, winds are forecast to increase as they day goes on. Winds should peak around midday, with prevailing winds at 12-14mph and gusts up to 23-27mph.

We predict the weather edge will finish up between 0.5-0.75 strokes on average. Obviously, this is not insignificant. However, it should be noted there is a small chance of fog and thunderstorms developing Friday AM.

Certainly for purposes of DFS, I would suggest a construction of 30% Thursday PM/Friday AM with 10% the contrarian Thursday AM/Friday PM and the remaining 60% of your lineups being mixed.

Travelers Championship Picks

Suggested Staking

Tom Kim
2pt E/W +4500 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Russell Henley – Your Travelers Championship Picks Favourite
2.5pt E/W +5500 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Denny McCarthy
1pt E/W +8000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pts Top 20 +300 (Bet365)

Aaron Rai
1pt E/W +10000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pts Top 20 +350 (Bet365)

Andrew Putnam
0.5pt E/W +15000 (Bet365/William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
3pt Top 20 +475 (Bet365)

Mark Hubbard – Your Travelers Championship Picks Best Value
1pt E/W +20000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +550 (Bet365)
And
2pt Top 40 +200 (Bet365)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout
0.5pt E/W +20000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
3pt Top 40 +240 (TAB)

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Summary

Finally, thank you reading our 2023 Travelers Championship picks. Meanwhile, you can read an article with some insights on my golf analysis process check this link here!

Link into the WinDaily Discord channel here. You can ask direct questions for your DFS lineups with all of our experts, as well as one-on-one coaching!

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2 years ago 0 comments

Daily Fantasy Sports PGA

DFS Travelers Championship Overview

Richard Masana 2 years ago

written by Richard Masana

It’s week twenty-five of the PGA tour! Our crew has you covered for DFS Golf. This week we’re headed to TPC River Highlands for the Travelers Championship! We have all the content that you need, by podcast, live video, or article, whatever your preference.

At Win Daily Sports, we have a team of experts who will be producing all sorts of golf throughout the season. The goal is to have you covered for your Tournaments on every possible level!

Bettor Golf Podcast

Bettor Golf Podcast – Travelers Championship

Nick Bretwisch and Spencer Aguiar are bringing the heat. Be sure to follow their weekly podcast all season!

PGA DraftCast

https://www.youtube.com/watch?reload=9&v=NZNVbPFmJ_o

The OGs of PGA DFS Joel, Dave, Spencer, and Sia cover the Travelers in their weekly DraftCast video. The DraftCast is fun, informative, and sure to give you a couple of extra things to think about for every slate that you might miss at first look.