Hello everyone and welcome back to NFL Best Ball 2024 edition. I will be your guide throughout the course of this summer as we navigate through these best ball drafts, fattening our wallets in the process. After reaching the 2023 DraftKings Millionaire final, I am aiming to return to the elusive last round where payouts are significant. This year the entry fee on DraftKings has doubled from $10 to $20, and there will be two people crowned millionaires! Max entering (150 teams) this 1 million player pool does give you the best chance to get to that final round but is no way mandatory. I feel like you do WANT to have as many lottery tickets as possible, but the content I provide this summer is applicable to those entering less than max.
QB-WR-TE stacking is great, but not mandatory:
Stacking your top WRs and TE with your QB is great for best ball. This correlation will increase your weekly scores. However, it is not “necessary”. Let me explain. After reviewing my portfolio from last season, I noticed that I was above the field on Brandin Cooks, with the field with CeeDee Lamb and Jake Ferguson, and way below the field on Dak Prescott. How did this happen? Well, the only one of the those pass catchers to get drafted before Dak was CeeDee Lamb. So, in most cases, if I did not draft Lamb, I was not drafting Dak. I did not enjoy the uncertainty of drafting Dak and potentially missing out on Cooks or Ferguson. As I looked back, this was a mistake. Dak finished as the QB3. So, drafting him ‘naked’ would have returned excellent value, even if I did not pair him with one of his pass catchers. The winning millionaire best ball team rostered Jordan Love. Jordan freaking Love. Probably around the QB 15-20 from last season. The majority of teams paired him with Watson or Doubs, and the lowest % with rookie Jayden Reed, who was drafted last of the GB WRs. Who not only finished as GB’s WR #1, but also wound up on many of the top lineups in Week 17. So with the uncertainty that is best ball, it is great to stack, but in no ways is necessary. If you think a QB would outscore other QBs ranked ahead of him, do not hesitate in drafting him. You can always roster him without a pass catcher, or bank on one of his pass catchers falling in your lap later in the draft.
ADP (average draft position) is just a guide, not a rule:
Whether or not you are using DraftKings’ rankings or WINDAILY’s rankings, it is important to point out that ADP is just a guide. It is the average draft position of each player and is a reflection on when the population is drafting each player. Training camp news and contract situations affects ADP, and you can take advantage if you’re up to date on the latest news. Last summer, the holdouts of Saquon Barkley and Josh Jacobs caused their ADP to drop. Once these players were signed and reported to camp, their ADP increased. So while these franchise tagged RBs were holding out, you were able to draft them at a discount. If there was no doubt in your mind that these players would sign and report to camp, you could have taken advantage and drafted these players ahead of ADP, knowing that there was no way they wouldn’t eventually sign and report.
Luck plays a BIG factor, Advancement rate is key:
I advanced 1 of my 150 teams to the final round of 1,200 teams. The tournament started with about 1.1 million entrants. To get to the final round takes an incredible amount of luck. I was 1-3 fantasy points away from not making the final round. That was the difference between $50 and $4,000.
When playing against these large field tournaments, you want as many teams advancing as possible. The more lotto tickets you have, the better your chances. Most tournaments are 4 rounds, with round 1 being weeks 1-14, round 2 is week 15, round 3 is week 16, and the championship round week 4 is week 17. In most tournaments only 1 team in rounds 2 and 3 are advancing. So if you have 12 teams still alive in round 3 (which would be improbable), chances are you would advance 1 team into the championship. But how the math plays out, if you max enter 150 teams, on average you will have 25 teams move onto round 2. On average, you will have 2 teams move onto round 3. From there you will have a 16.67% chance of advancing to round 4. That means, 83.33% of the time, you will NOT get 1 team into the championship round if you max enter. Moral of the story: lady luck must be on your side.
Player takes is your edge:
Hitting on late round players and avoiding early round busts are where most drafters get their edge. Having a good players’ ranking and a proper evaluation system is key. Staying on top of training camp news, and knowing how to separate the signals from the noise, will give you an edge against your competition. Not to toot my own horn, but I had Trey McBride on 25% of teams last year. I regularly drafted him in round 16 or later last season. This season, he is TE3 and drafted in the 4th round. Last season I was fading Cooper Kupp pretty hard in round 1. He was my biggest avoid. This year, he is a target of mine in the 3rd round. Last year, Kyle Pitts had subpar QB play. This year Kirk Cousins will be throwing darts in his direction. Every season is different, and you should treat it as such. Do not fall victim to recency bias. Do not be afraid to go against the grain. It is your team and your money. Spend it how you seem fit.
As best ball grows in popularity, more players will be flooding the market. It is vital to have a strong foundation, so your advancement rate is above average, and your team is well correlated, so when you do advance you have a high probability of attaining a high weekly score.
Make sure to check out our NFL Season Long Rankings here and if you want to talk best ball I will be in our community Discord here.
