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Atlanta Hawks

NBA Ghost’s Gems for Eastern Conference Round 1

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

The NBA Playoffs are officially under way! Yes, the Play-In tournament got us kicked off a few days ago. But the conventional one through eight matchups begin tonight. The Eastern Conference is much more lopsided than the Western Conference, but there will be many good battles every night.

With the NBA Play-In tournament now over, here is the updated bracket for the Eastern Conference:

The fantasy sports landscape shifts drastically throughout the NBA Playoffs. Rotations are much more condensed, while teams are quick to shorten their bench. As previously mentioned, rotation notes, player breakdowns, analytical advantages, and key x-factors are all discussed below. The x-factor will not be the best player on the team, but rather, someone that will provide an edge in both fantasy sports and on the court in real time.

Be sure to use our proprietary NBA projections and cheat sheet to build your lineups as the news rolls in. Moreover, join the conversation in the Win Daily Discord to get the insight you need from both subscribers and staff.

Milwaukee Bucks (1) vs. Miami Heat (8)

Milwaukee Bucks (-1200 to win series)

Introduction

After being dethroned as Conference Champions and NBA Champions last season, the Bucks bounced back with their most successful regular season since 2018-2019. Moreover, Giannis Antetokounmpo is an MVP candidate, following a career-high 31.1 points per game. This roster is stout on both ends of the court, with their only drawback being clutch shooting down the stretch via shot creation.

Matchup

From a defensive standpoint, Miami has the ability to match up with nearly every NBA roster. However, the Bucks are a different beast. Giannis Antetokounmpo is one of the most unguardable players the league has to offer. Moreover, Brook Lopez has been terrific both in the paint and from behind the arc. Factor in Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton, two excellent two-way players, and there is simply too much to contain on a nightly basis. Each player has a respectable defender in front of them, but Miami is most vulnerable on the wing.

Rotation

After winning an NBA Championship only two season ago, Milwaukee is poised for another deep playoff run. Led by Giannis Antetokounmpo, this roster also features quality two-way players in Jrue Holiday and Brook Lopez. Despite missing 49 games this season, Khris Middleton is set to contribute early and often, while Pat Connaughton and Grayson Allen will flank the wings at times. Moreover, Bobby Portis Jr. will be the first big man off the bench, while Jae Crowder and Joe Ingles give Milwaukee veteran options off the bench, if necessary. Jevon Carter may spell Jrue Holiday at times, but don’t count on big minutes at rotations get tighter.

X-Factor

Despite their shortcomings on offense, the Heat’s defensive unit is no joke. Thus, the biggest x-factor in this series will be Brook Lopez. After finishing second in the NBA in blocks per game, Lopez received a nomination for Defensive Player of the Year. Moreover, he had his best shooting season since 2018-2019. In a matchup versus Bam Adebayo, it will be up to Lopez to control the paint on both ends of the court, with the obvious help of Giannis Antetokounmpo.

Miami Heat (+750 to win series)

Introduction

It took a game longer than expected, but Miami made the NBA Playoffs. However, this team looks to be one of, if not the worst team remaining. Shockingly enough, they have some quality players where they should not be in this situation, but here they are. Their offense struggled mightily all season long and continued to do so in the Play-In, making their outlook far from optimistic.

Matchup

This is far from a good matchup for the Heat. Milwaukee’s interior defense is one of, if not the best in the NBA. Both Giannis Antetokounmpo and Brook Lopez await in the paint, while Jrue Holiday puts the clamps on the perimeter. Moreover, Miami plays awfully slow and were the lowest scoring team of the year, creating a hard enough situation thanks to their own shortcomings on offense.

Rotation

The Heat will only go as far as Butler, Adebayo, and Herro take them. Elsewhere, look for Max Strus, Kyle Lowry, Kevin Love, and Caleb Martin to see decent run. For some reason, the Heat are insistent on Gabe Vincent starting, but he will continue to have little impact. Other candidates would be Victor Oladipo and Cody Zeller, but their minutes will vary from game to game.

X-Factor

The off-ball guards will be crucial for Miami. Jimmy Butler will have to force Giannis to guard him on the perimeter to create space for his teammates, but he himself is far from elite out there. Moreover, Bam Adebayo will have his hands full with Brook Lopez on the inside, while Jrue Holiday lines up on Tyler Herro. Thus, the duo of Kyle Lowry and Max Strus will have to make every shot count to keep this series close.

Boston Celtics (2) vs. Atlanta Hawks (7)

Boston Celtics (-1200 to win series)

Introduction

Following a disappointing loss in the NBA Finals to the Warriors, Boston came back stronger this season. As a team, Boston won six more games this season than they did last year. Moreover, both Tatum and Brown saw increases in their scoring outputs. This roster is sound from top to bottom, and it will come down to avoiding poor performances when it matters most.

Matchup

No matter which way you look at it, Boston matches up well versus Atlanta. They have multiple elite perimeter defenders to counter the Hawks’ star backcourt, while having formidable defenders on the inside as well. Moreover, a one-two scoring punch of Tatum and Brown is one of the best these NBA Playoffs have to offer. Add in two-way players such as Marcus Smart and Malcolm Brogdon, whose games are tailored to the playoffs and Boston is in for a serious run.

Rotation

Make no mistake about it, the core of a team that won the Eastern Conference has returned from last season. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are coming off terrific seasons and will anchor their team once again. Moreover, Marcus Smart and Malcolm Brogdon are terrific two-way options for another playoff run. Al Horford and Robert Williams III will anchor the paint, while Grant Williams and Derrick White round out the rotation.

X-Factor

The key parts to this Boston rotation will all play important roles in this series. However, assuming both Smart and Brogdon clamp Trae Young, Al Horford and Robert Williams III will be crucial on the inside. Both John Collins and Clint Capela are terrific as the roll man in a pick-and-roll offense. Moreover, Atlanta has shooters on the outside to make Boston pay for defensive mistakes. The interior duo will have to be sharp on the glass and with paint defense, making this a series built for Robert Williams III.

Atlanta Hawks (+750 to win series)

Introduction

After their win in the Play-In, Atlanta dodged a matchup versus Giannis and the Bucks in the opening round. However, things do not get any easier, as Boston are the defending Conference champions and are set on making another deep playoff run. Barring extreme circumstances, Atlanta looks destined for yet another early exit, which could bring massive changes in the offseason.

Matchup

Individual and collective matchups do not favor the Hawks. On the perimeter, Marcus Smart and Malcolm Brogdon will be a problem for Trae Young. Moreover, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown will be tough to contain, considering De’Andre Hunter can only guard one of them. Truthfully, Dejounte Murray will have to keep Brown at bay if they want the slightest chance of winning this series, and while it will happen for a game or two, Boston has too big of an edge in all facets of the game.

Rotation

Trae Young and Dejounte Murray lead a star-studded backcourt, surrounded by quality role players. De’Andre Hunter, John Collins, and Clint Capela likely round out the starting unit in this one. Meanwhile, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Saddiq Bey, and Onyeka Okongwu round out the rest of the rotation.

X-Factor

With Trae Young having to deal with one of Marcus Smart or Malcolm Brogdon for every minute that he is on the court, Dejounte Murray will have to step up in a big way. If Atlanta wants to succeed in this series, Young needs to be just as good off the ball as he is with it, and Murray needs to be an exemplary playmaker. The pick-and-roll is just as useful with Murray and it is Young, and the former is an excellent counterpart to the rebounding abilities of Boston’s guards.

Philadelphia 76ers (3) vs. Brooklyn Nets (6)

Philadelphia 76ers (-1000 to win series)

Introduction

It truly is Championship or bust for the 76ers at this point. Not only did they acquire James Harden to flank Joel Embiid, but this roster is built to win now. Aside from Tyrese Maxey, there is no young, promising talent on this team. However, with Boston, Milwaukee, and Cleveland standing in their way, the road to the NBA Finals is as hard as it ever will be for Philadelphia.

Matchup

The matchup for Philadelphia is decent here. Mikal Bridges will be a pain to deal with on the outside, but everything will have to funnel through Joel Embiid in the paint. Nic Claxton is no slouch around the rim, but with the way Embiid gets foul calls in his favor every night, there is a mismatch there. However, where the 76ers could find themselves in trouble is if the surrounding group are not hitting their shots. Assuming Bridges keeps Harden in check, it will be up to Melton, Maxey, and Harris to pitch in on the scoring sheet, something that has held Philadelphia back in the past.

Rotation

Joel Embiid will man the paint for the bulk of the minutes. Moreover, James Harden will have his minutes staggered at times so at least one is on the court at all times, but the two will be featured together a lot. Tobias Harris and Tyrese Maxey will be the secondary scoring options, while De’Anthony Melton provides a combination of perimeter defense and three-point shooting. Philadelphia also has the luxury of using Jalen McDaniels to spell Harris, while PJ Tucker will be a primary defender throughout the series. Georges Niang and Shake Milton will see minutes as they fit, which won’t be very often.

X-Factor

While the duo of James Harden and Joel Embiid will lead the charge on offense, Tyrese Maxey has the potential to have the biggest impact in this series. Harden will draw coverage from Mikal Bridges, who is one of the best perimeter defenders in the league. The pick-and-roll will be utilized a ton here to feature Embiid, but Maxey will find himself with open lanes to the rim off the ball when Embiid kicks to the outside.

Brooklyn Nets (+650 to win series)

Introduction

What was supposed to be a Championship season for the Brooklyn Nets took a turn for the worse. Their Big 3 of James Harden, Kevin Durant, and Kyrie Irving was initially broken up when Harden was dealt for Ben Simmons. However, following multiple occasions of Irving having off-court issues, he was dealt to Dallas, while Durant found himself in Phoenix. However, there is a silver lining to the situation. Brooklyn received who could be the very best, if not one of the best 3-and-D wings in the NBA in Mikal Bridges. While they had a losing record after the trade, Bridges posted 26.1 points per game in 27 appearances for the Nets.

Matchup

This is a tough matchup for Brooklyn but it is certainly winnable. The key will be to switch the right offensive option onto James Harden and for said player to knock down shots when they come. Sounds simple enough, right? Well, not quite. The 76ers now quietly have multiple elite perimeter defenders in De’Anthony Melton and Jalen McDaniels. Meanwhile, while his offensive game is as useless as they come, PJ Tucker will likely get the first chance to guard Mikal Bridges. Lastly, Joel Embiid awaits in the paint, which is self-explanatory.

Rotation

The Nets will be in tough to find the right rotation to match Philadelphia. However, Nic Claxton needs to be out there for every minute that Joel Embiid is. Moreover, Mikal Bridges and Spender Dinwiddie seem poised to carry the bulk of minutes. Both Cam Johnson and Royce O’Neale make for good two-ways options, while the former has far more upside offensively. Lastly, Seth Curry and Joe Harris can provide scoring off the bench, while Dorian Finney-Smith will be needed as a perimeter defender. Two young talents in Cam Thomas and Day’Ron Sharpe await their chance, but it’s unlikely to be here.

X-Factor

Make no mistake about it, the Nets will only go as far as Mikal Bridges can take them. His game is a perfect fit for the NBA Playoffs, but this is reserved for players who are not the top talent on their respective rosters. Thus, Spencer Dinwiddie makes the cut. Not only did he have interesting takes on FanDuel TV recently, but he has a lot to prove. Dinwiddie has been on four teams in the last four years and needs to take control of this offense. The 76ers are exploitable in switches on James Harden, and Dinwiddie will have to find a way to take advantage when opportunities arise.

Cleveland Cavaliers (4) vs. New York Knicks (5)

Cleveland Cavaliers (-200 to win series)

Introduction

After the acquisition of Donovan Mitchell, expectations skyrocketed for this young Cavaliers team. Surrounded by quality veterans, this team is poised to make a deep run in the NBA Playoffs. While their core four are young, the Cavaliers excel on both ends of the court. Not only can they beat you multiple ways offensively, but they have the best defensive unit statistically this season. In what could be a surprise to some, Cleveland are darkhorse Championship contenders.

Matchup

While the Knicks’ defense is far from elite, they are no slouch as a unit either. Collectively, New York finished 19th in defensive rating and 13th in points per game allowed. However, their true strength is on the glass, finishing second in the NBA in rebounding percentage. The Cavaliers match up well though, with both Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen leading the charge. Donovan Mitchell figures to lead the charge here in all facets of the offense. Most notably, New York finished 27th in three-pointers allowed per game.

Rotation

Despite having a star-studded starting lineup, the Cavaliers’ bench is thin. Thus, do not expect a ton of surprising minutes here. The backcourt will feature two of the NBA’s young talent in Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell. Moreover, Cleveland has another young duo in the frontcourt with Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen. While one of Lamar Stevens or Isaac Okoro will presumably start games on the wing, Caris LeVert will see more minutes than both of them. Rounding out the rotation will be Dean Wade, Ricky Rubio, and Cedi Osman.

X-Factor

While Donovan Mitchell is the real difference-maker, top players will be avoided in this section. It is no knock on Evan Mobley, but he is featured instead of his teammate. Fresh off a nomination for NBA Defensive Player of the Year, Mobley’s versatility will be needed in this series. He will be the primary defender on Julius Randle and provide offensive upside. Moreover, he is a tremendous rebounder for his age. Should the Knicks go small at times with Randle at the ‘5’ in favor of Robinson, Mobley can shift over if Jarrett Allen needs to consequently sub out.

New York Knicks (+170 to win series)

Introduction

In what could have been a disastrous season for New York, the Knicks came out in a good position. While the top teams in the East were clear, finishing ahead of Atlanta, Miami, Chicago, and Miami is quite the achievement. After an offseason of turmoil following the max contract signing of Jalen Brunson, the former Maverick had a career year. Not only did Brunson average 24/3.5/6.2 on 49.1% shooting, but he was the clear leader on the court.

Matchup

This matchup could not be worse for the Knicks. Not only did Cleveland rank first in defensive rating this year, but they also allowed the fewest points per game in the NBA. Moreover, the rank first versus multiple player types. Primary ball handlers, off-ball guards, and scoring centers all struggle mightily versus the Cavaliers.

Rotation

Expect Coach Tom Thibodeau to stick to his roots. Through his career, he has been notorious for having one of the tightest rotations, no matter the time of year. Jalen Brunson and Julius Randle will be key for the Knicks this series. Moreover, a battle in the paint awaits for Mitchell Robinson. Lastly, the trio of Quentin Grimes, RJ Barrett, and Josh Hart will flank the wings. Look for Isaiah Hartenstein and Obi Toppin to pick up limited minutes in a backup role. Meanwhile Immanuel Quickley will continue to come off the bench, but will play clutch minutes and be in the closing lineup.

X-Factor

Playing against one of the best defenses in the NBA makes this section difficult. The Knicks will need both Quentin Grimes and RJ Barrett to step up. While they are far from the flashiest players on offense, they have the best matchup. Lining up against a combination of Isaac Okoro and Caris LeVert is as good as it will get versus Cleveland. However, the true x-factor in this series will be Mitchell Robinson. While the big man has had his limitations, this matchup is right up his alley. Both Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen are forces on both ends of the court, but Robinson will be needed every step of the way for New York.

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

NBA

NBA Ghost’s Gems for Play-In Tournament (Apr. 11)

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

With the NBA season concluded, it’s time for the best part of the season. The Play-In tournament was introduced three seasons ago and has been a great addition to the existing format. In a one-and-done scenario for some, every second of these games is crucial.

Here is the NBA Playoff bracket with final seeding:

The fantasy sports landscape shifts drastically throughout the NBA Playoffs. Rotations are much more condensed, while teams are quick to shorten their bench. In both this article and the Opening Round Matchup Breakdown articles, there will be rotation notes, player breakdowns, analytical advantages, and key x-factors. The x-factor will not be the best player on the team, but rather, someone that will provide an edge in both fantasy sports and on the court in real time.

Miami Heat (7) vs. Atlanta Hawks (8)

Miami Heat (-5.5)

Introduction

Despite their shortcomings on offense, Miami has one of the best defensive units in the NBA Playoffs. A one-two punch of Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo on the perimeter and in the paint, respectively, is one of the best combinations in the league. However, the Heat will need to find a way to produce offensively. No player averaged more than 11.5 points per game outside of Butler, Adebayo, and Tyler Herro. Additionally, Miami had the lowest scoring offense in the league this year with 109.5 points per game.

Matchup

On paper and in real time, these two teams are complete opposites. Miami had the worst scoring offense in the league, while only being ranked 25th in offensive rating and 29th in pace. However, the Hawks posted over 118 points per game, ranking them third in the league. They also were 7th in offensive rating and 6th in pace.

Rotation

The Heat will only go as far as Butler, Adebayo, and Herro take them. On a two-game NBA slate, raw points are king. Thus, Butler and Herro make for the most intriguing options on this roster. Elsewhere, look for Max Strus, Kyle Lowry, Kevin Love, and Caleb Martin to see decent run. Other candidates, would be Victor Oladipo, Gabe Vincent, and Cody Zeller, but don’t count on it.

X-Factor

As alluded to earlier, this section is reserved for a player that is set to be an unknown difference-maker. In this game, Jimmy Butler will be the best player on the court. However, there is a good chance that Tyler Herro leads the team in scoring. If the Hawks play this one properly, they would have Hunter on Butler, Murray on Herro, and Young on Strus or Lowry. However, the Hawks have been reluctant to do so this season, meaning whoever lands on an individual matchup versus Trae Young will be crucial to a win.

Atlanta Hawks (+5.5)

Introduction

In an awkward position with a lot of money and term committed to multiple players, the Hawks stumbled into the Play-In tournament this season. Atlanta is still a key piece or two away from being true contenders, but they have a legitimate shot at winning this game due to their offensive firepower. In a year where offenses were taken to new heights, it was Atlanta who scored the third-most points per game, posting the seventh-best offensive rating amongst all teams.

Matchup

On paper, this is a horrendous matchup for the Hawks’ main contributors. Trae Young will certainly lead the offense, but Miami has the best perimeter defense in the NBA this season. Moreover, they ranked first against true primary ball handlers. Where Miami could be exploited is on the deep ball; the Heat ranked 28th in the league this season to three-point shooters, giving up 13.1 makes per game.

Rotation

X-Factor

As alluded to earlier, this section is reserved for a player that is set to be an unknown difference-maker. In this game, De’Andre Hunter will be the most crucial contributor not named Trae Young or Dejounte Murray. While both John Collins and Clint Capela have their hands full with Bam Adebayo guarding the paint, it is Hunter that will benefit from a Heat defensive unit known to switch Jimmy Butler onto primary ball handlers. Being one of the most promising 3-and-D wings in the NBA since coming out of Virginia, Hunter will be relied upon on both ends of the court.

Los Angeles Lakers (7) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (8)

Los Angeles Lakers (-7.5)

Introduction

Despite a season of turmoil, the Lakers turned things around to get into the Play-In tournament. This team has one of the best duos in the NBA, alongside quality role players whom were acquired at the trade deadline. The highlight of the season has to be the emergence of Austin Reaves, who will play a crucial role in the Lakers’ playoff run.

Matchup

In the absence of Rudy Gobert, no player has a better matchup than Anthony Davis. Moreover, LeBron James figures to dominate against a Minnesota team that struggled to guard primary ball handlers all season long. With Minnesota playing at a fast pace with like Los Angeles does, only with far worse defense, this one plays right into the Lakers’ hands.

Rotation

This Lakers rotation is surprisingly deep thanks to an overhaul at the trade deadline. Alongside LeBron James and Anthony Davis, D’Angelo Russell and Austin Reaves will play prominent minutes. Moreover, Jarred Vanderbilt and his defensive ability will earn him significant run. Rounding out the rotation, when necessary, are Dennis Schroder (when healthy), Malik Beasley, and Tory Brown Jr. There is potential for Rui Hachimura and/or Wenyen Gabriel to see some time if the Lakers make a Playoff run, but their minutes will be scarce.

X-Factor

As alluded to earlier, this section is reserved for a player that is set to be a difference-maker without being the consensus top talent on his team. In this game, the duo of D’Angelo Russell and Austin Reaves will be relied upon to take advantage of a poor Minnesota perimeter defense. On the season, Minnesota ranked 25th in the NBA versus primary ball handlers, which bodes well for LeBron James, but Reaves and Russell have enticing matchups versus Mike Conley, Taurean Prince, and Anthony Edwards.

Minnesota Timberwolves (+7.5)

Introduction

The Minnesota overhaul was a disaster. Rudy Gobert was acquired in the offseason for far too many assets, and it simply has not worked out. This offense is stagnant, relying on Anthony Edwards in isolation far too often. Meanwhile, the defensive unit has been mediocre at best. In a matchup versus a streaking Lakers team, the Timberwolves will be lucky to be in this game at the start of the fourth quarter.

Matchup

The highlight of this matchup will be the pace of play. Respectively, Los Angeles and Minnesota ranked 4th and 7th in the NBA this season. However, when the individual matchups are broken down, there is not much to like about the Timberwolves. Sure, Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns will handle a ridiculous number of offensive looks, but lining up on LeBron James and Anthony Davis is no joke. Moreover, Minnesota will be forced to rely on role players who, themselves, are outmatched by the likes of D’Angelo Russell, Austin Reaves, and Jarred Vanderbilt.

Rotation

Minnesota’s season was underwhelming after the acquisition of Rudy Gobert, and it was truthfully expected. In this game, expect to see as much Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns as you ever have. Moreover, Kyle Anderson and Taurean Prince will be forced into meaningful minutes. Since Jaylen Nowell missed five straight games to end the regular season, Jordan McLaughlin and Nickeil Alexander-Walker are the first guards off the bench. Filler minutes will be there for Austin Rivers and Nathan Knight, if necessary.

X-Factor

As alluded to earlier, this section is reserved for a player that is set to be an unknown difference-maker. In this game, the Timberwolves simply do not stand a chance if Towns does not have one of the best games of his career. With Rudy Gobert suspended and Naz Reid out for the season, Towns will have to stay out of foul trouble against Anthony Davis. This is not going to go well for Minneosta.

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

NBA DFS for Ghost’s Gems (Mar. 22)

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

Many key matchups await as the NBA Playoff picture is set to finalize in the upcoming weeks. It’s a Wet Wednesday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

Golden State Warriors @ Dallas Mavericks (+2.5)

Golden State Warriors (-2.5)

With the Clippers’ Paul George suffering an injury last night and Phoenix still missing Kevin Durant, the Warriors have their eye on the #4 seed in the Western Conference. This would secure homecourt advantage in their opening NBA Playoffs series. Golden State will need Steph Curry to shoulder the offense on a nightly basis. The future hall-of-famer has has 30 or more points in three of his last four games and is poised to lead once again.

Dallas Mavericks (+2.5)

Considering the Warriors are 2.5-point favorites in this game, it is unlikely that Luka Doncic returns to the lineup tonight after a five-game absence. However, if he does, he instantly becomes one of, if not the top play on the NBA slate. Keep an eye on this injury report.

Atlanta Hawks @ Minnesota Timberwolves (-4.5)

Atlanta Hawks (+4.5)

Another key injury report to monitor, as Dejounte Murray was scratched from last night’s win over Detroit. This could have been precautionary, but if Murray is ruled out once again, then Trae Young will be one of, if not the most popular option on the NBA slate. After dropping 30/3/12 versus a rebuilding Pistons team in only 30 minutes, Young gets another favorable matchup versus a Timberwolves defense that ranks 25th versus opposing primary ball handlers.

Minnesota Timberwolves (-4.5)

Minnesota will be glad to see Karl-Anthony Towns back in the lineup tonight. Surely he will have a minutes restriction and is too risky for this NBA slate. However, he last suited up in November, giving this team a much needed spark in his return. Anthony Edwards was in a walking boot just a few days ago and has since missed the team’s last two games. However, he is listed as questionable to play. This is a key injury report to monitor, as it will offer plenty of value, should Edwards be ruled out once again.

Honorable Mentions:

Portland Trail Blazers @ Utah Jazz (-4.5)
Phoenix Suns @ Los Angeles Lakers (+1.5)

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

NBA Premium

NBA DFS for Ghost’s Gems (Mar. 17)

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

The NBA Playoff race is quickly heating up and many Western Conference teams amidst the battle are in action tonight. While some are missing crucial contributors, others face off against some of the league’s best. It’s a Fajita Friday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

Golden State Warriors @ Atlanta Hawks (-3.5)

Golden State Warriors (+3.5)

Exposure to this game is solely dependent on the availability of Steph Curry. The greatest shooter in NBA history is questionable to play with a wrist injury, but this one tips off at the beginning of the slate. Should he miss this one, both Klay Thompson and Jordan Poole will assume primary offensive responsibility, while Donte DiVincenzo will see extended minutes on the wing. However, should Curry indeed be available, he is a prime position to lead the slate in scoring. Averaging 35.6/5.6/5.2 on 58.2% shooting over his last five games, Curry is heating up before yet another playoff run in a history career. In the absence of Draymond Green, look for Kevon Looney and Jonathan Kuminga to see extended run.

Atlanta Hawks (-3.5)

Should Curry miss this game, a slot opens up for another key contributor at the top of the pricing grid. Thus, Trae Young is the fallback option to pair with Jordan Poole and/or Klay Thompson, rather than Clint Capela paired with Steph Curry as a game stack. Over his last five games, Young has scored 25 points or more in each appearance. Moreover, he has averaged 31.4/3.2/9.2 on 54.9% shooting during that span. With Golden State ranked 26th in the NBA against primary ball handlers, Young is in a terrific spot to be atop the scoring leaders of the night.

Dallas Mavericks @ Los Angeles Lakers (-5.5)

Dallas Mavericks (+5.5)

In the absence of Luka Doncic, the Mavericks have quickly fallen down the standings in the Western Conference. In a key matchup versus the Lakers, all eyes will be on the potential return of Kyrie Irving, who has missed the last three games with a foot injury. Meanwhile, should the availability news of Kyrie come early enough that he is ruled out, Tim Hardaway Jr., Jaden Hardy, and Christian Wood will carry this offense, but their positions on the pricing grid on this NBA slate make the Mavericks offense a fade, only if Kyrie is ruled out.

Los Angeles Lakers (-5.5)

While most will flock to Joel Embiid versus the Hornets, this is a tremendous game environment for Anthony Davis. While expectations were low in the Lakers’ last game considering the absences of of both he and LeBron James, Los Angeles still managed to lose to the lowly Rockets. Thus, AD will have to be scoring 30 or more points every night for the Lakers to make a playoff run. To say the Mavericks lack interior defense in an understatement; they allow over 50 points in the paint per game, while being last in the league in points scored in the paint per game.

Honorable Mentions:

New Orleans Pelicans @ Houston Rockets (+5.5)
Boston Celtics @ Portland Trail Blazers (+4.5)

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

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NBA DFS for Ghost’s Gems (Mar. 3)

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

Amongst a plethora of games on the NBA schedule are a few that stand above the rest. Moreover, a few key rotations are on the second half of a back-to-back. Injury reports will be crucial to monitor heading into the late games, as usual. It’s a Fajita Friday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

Portland Trail Blazers @ Atlanta Hawks (-6.5)

Portland Trail Blazers (+6.5)

Injuries for the Trail Blazers continue to get worse. While still missing Jusuf Nurkic to a calf injury, Anfernee Simons managed to log a mere 20 minutes before reaggravating his ankle injury after a two-week absence. The two have both been ruled out tonight, meaning this is once again an NBA slate where Damian Lillard will be amongst the most popular options in the field. After scoring 25 points versus Golden State, Lillard returned to form against the Pelicans, dropping an efficient 41 points in 39 minutes. He has now averaged 45.7/5.7/4.3 on 53.1% shooting in three games since the All-Star break, sporting an outrageous 41% usage rate. In the absence of Simons, look for Cam Reddish and Matisse Thybulle to see extended run.

Atlanta Hawks (-6.5)

There are two ways to approach this Hawks offense tonight. The first, being the more clear path to success, is playing both Damian Lillard and Trae Young. However, be aware that, consequently, lineup construction is entirely dependent on this game being the highest scoring affair of the NBA slate. Young has logged three straight 30-point efforts since the All-Star break, averaging 33/2.7/8 through a commanding 40.1% usage rate. Moreover, the second approach is riskier. Both Clint Capela and John Collins have terrific matchups on the inside versus a Portland interior defense that struggles mightily in the paint and on the glass. However, Onyeka Okongwu is a candidate for increased minutes in favor of Capela, should Portland run a smaller lineup down the stretch.

Los Angeles Clippers @ Sacramento Kings (OTB)

Los Angeles Clippers (OTB)

The Clippers are on the second half of a back-to-back and face another potential playoff opponent tonight. However, they are notorious for resting players in these types of situations, primarily Paul George and/or Kawhi Leonard. The former has said to have been on a minutes restriction lately, but his minutes say otherwise. Meanwhile, Leonard has been in and out of the lineup after serious injuries over the years. There is no clear cut way to get exposure here at the time of writing, but this is one of the best spots on the NBA slate for a team that is already missing Ivica Zubac (calf) and Marcus Morris Sr. (elbow).

Sacramento Kings (OTB)

Two of the best individual matchups on this NBA slate belong to the Sacramento Kings. If primary ball handlers versus the Clippers did not entice you enough over the years, the acquisition of Russell Westbrook only makes matters worse for Los Angeles. Enter De’Aaron Fox, who was back at practice yesterday after a wrist injury. In three appearances since the All-Star break, Fox has averaged 35.3/3.7/7.7 on 63.9% shooting. Moreover, Domantas Sabonis gets the matchup that the fantasy community loves: Mason Plumlee. The former Charlotte Hornet was a daily target to pick on, and the league’s leading rebounder will be no match for him.

Minnesota Timberwolves @ Los Angeles Lakers (+1.5)

Minnesota Timberwolves (-1.5)

While this offense is dominated by Anthony Edwards in the absence of Karl-Anthony Towns, both Mike Conley and Jaden McDaniels make for intriguing plays on this NBA slate. Since coming over from Utah, Conley has averaged 8.5/2.7/5.8 on a mere 36.7% shooting. While the numbers certainly do not jump off the page, the game environment is elite: the Lakers rank second in the league in pace, while ranking 27th against combo guards. Moreover, McDaniels has been a focal point of this defense, alongside Rudy Gobert. The former has been efficient on both ends of the court, scoring in double digits in five straight appearances while averaging 15.4/5.2/1.6 on 62.5% shooting during that span.

Los Angeles Lakers (+1.5)

Make no mistake about it, a matchup versus Rudy Gobert does not limit Anthony Davis’ ceiling on this NBA slate. Not only is he a candidate to lead all players in fantasy points scored, but he has a tremendous floor for someone of his position on the pricing grid. Over his last two appearances, AD has averaged 29/17/2 on 53.8% shooting, amassing four blocks per game. After sitting out the second half of a back-to-back the other night, not only is the Lakers star rested, but there is no one more crucial to this team at the moment.

Honorable Mentions:

Utah Jazz @ Oklahoma City Thunder (+1.5)
New Orleans Pelicans @ Golden State Warriors (OTB)

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

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NBA DFS for Ghost’s Gems (Feb. 13)

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

Following the conclusion of the NFL season last night, all eyes turn to the NBA. After one of the most entertaining trade deadlines in recent memory, the league has a few games left before its All-Star break. It’s a Mojito Monday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

Atlanta Hawks @ Charlotte Hornets (+5.5)

Atlanta Hawks (-5.5)

Make no mistake about it, this NBA slate is riddled with elite options at the guard position. However, two of them are in this game. Trae Young and the Hawks are in an explosive position on offense tonight. The face of the Atlanta franchise has been on fire lately, averaging 26.7/3.9/12 on 47.7% shooting over his last seven games. Moreover, the Hornets provide a great game environment for the primary ball handler. Charlotte ranks 25th in defensive rating and 7th in pace, giving Young a ton of upside. If going elsewhere at the guard position, Clint Capela makes for a tremendous target in the mid range of the pricing grid.

Charlotte Hornets (+5.5)

Similarly to Young, LaMelo Ball is in a fantastic position on this NBA slate. Despite the Hornets losing seven straight games, Ball continues to impress. He has averaged 22.9/8.3/8.1 on 40.7% shooting during that span, leading the team with a 29% usage rate. Moreover, the Hawks have a formidable on-ball defense in Dejounte Murray to counteract Ball, but the latter is excellent in finding open teammates. One benefactor will be Mark Williams, who has taken over the starting center role following the departure of Mason Plumlee. In two starts since then, Williams has averaged 8.5/8.5/1 on 58.3% shooting, amassing two steals and blocks per night.

Los Angeles Lakers @ Portland Trail Blazers (-2.5)

Los Angeles Lakers (+2.5)

The Lakers are in one of, if not the best game environment on the NBA slate. However, with the status of LeBron James unknown, there is a ton of uncertainty here. Should James play, he immediately becomes a contender to lead the slate in scoring. Yet, should he miss a third straight game with an ankle injury, both Anthony Davis and Dennis Schroder are in good spots. Davis has struggled over his last three games, but will be relied upon to shoulder the load versus an injured Trail Blazers frontcourt. Moreover, Portland ranks 27th in defensive rating and 26th versus centers. Schroder has looked good alongside newly acquired D’Angelo Russell, as the latter has shown the ability to play off the ball more so than the former. Over his last two appearances with LeBron out, Schroder has averaged 25.5/2.5/7.5 on 58.6% shooting.

Portland Trail Blazers (-2.5)

Two elite guards were mentioned in the previous game, but Damian Lillard is in one of, if not the best spot of the three. Over his last ten games, Dame Time has scored 30 or more points in eight appearances. Moreover, he has averaged 37.9/4.6/7.5 on 52.6% shooting during that span, including 41.3% from behind the arc on nearly 11 attempts per night. The Lakers rank 29th in the NBA versus primary ball handlers, while also ranking 20th in three-pointers allowed per night. The last time these two teams met, Portland took a 25-point lead into halftime, only to lose the game by nine. Counting Lillard out of the list of players to potentially lead this slate in scoring is a mistake.

Washington Wizards @ Golden State Warriors (-3.5)

Washington Wizards (+3.5)

Exposure to the Wizards offense hinges on the availability of Kyle Kuzma. Should he be ruled out, Bradley Beal is a great target in the mid range of the pricing grid. Over his last four games, Beal has averaged 26/4.5/6 on 58.3% shooting. Moreover, he leads the team in both usage rate and assists per game during that span. Since taking over as primary ball handler in the absence of Kuzma, Beal has much more room on offense to find his own shot, and create for others. With Beal also taking over six three-pointers per night over his last four appearances, he is in a position to take advantage of a Warriors defensive unit that ranks 22nd in the NBA in three-pointers allowed per night.

Golden State Warriors (-3.5)

Their positions on the pricing grid have not moved despite Steph Curry missing the team’s last three games, so there is no reason to avoid the backcourt duo of Jordan Poole and Klay Thompson. In three games since Curry went down with an injury, Poole and Thompson have combined for over 58 points per game, while taking 25 field goal attempts per night. Moreover, the two lead the team in usage rate during that span. This is far from the best game environment on the NBA slate, but it certainly is appealing enough for the sharpshooting Poole and Thompson.

Honorable Mentions:

Utah Jazz @ Indiana Pacers (-1.5)
New Orleans Pelicans @ Oklahoma City Thunder (-2.5)

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

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NBA DFS for Ghost’s Gems (Feb. 9)

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

Last night’s interesting matchups were overshadowed by trade deadline eve. The Lakers sent Russell Westbrook and a first round pick to the Jazz, while Utah managed to get both a coveted first round pick and lose Mike Conley’s hefty contract. Today, the trade deadline is at 3pm EST, meaning many players on this NBA slate could be affected. It’s a Thirsty Thursday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

Phoenix Suns @ Atlanta Hawks (+1.5)

Phoenix Suns (-1.5)

Devin Booker returned to the lineup for the first time since Christmas Day after recovering from a groin injury, but has been ruled out for tonight. Thus, Chris Paul makes for an excellent play on this NBA slate. Despite a decline from his usual self, CP3 is still averaging 13.6/4.3/8.7 on 43.2% shooting this season. Moreover, he has posted 1.13 fantasy points per minute through a 19.1% usage rate. However, with Booker off the floor, Paul sees slight improvements. Through a 21.9% usage rate, CP3 posts 1.16 points per minute. Atlanta ranks 12th in the NBA versus pick-and-roll offenses, giving up 17.6 points per game to the play type.

Atlanta Hawks (+1.5)

If the Lakers’ studs are both available, then Trae Young gets the nod for me at the top of the pricing grid, barring enough value to fit Giannis Antetokounmpo. However, should LeBron James sit tonight’s game after breaking the NBA all-time scoring record, Anthony Davis takes precedence over Young. Nonetheless, Young will be tasked with leading this offense tonight, as he does regularly. Over his last eight games, Young has scored 20 or more points in seven appearances. Moreover, he has posted ten or more assists in six of his last eight. During that span, Young has averaged 25/3.1/10.8 on 44.7% shooting.

Chicago Bulls @ Brooklyn Nets (OTB)

Chicago Bulls (OTB)

DeMar DeRozan missed the team’s last game with a hip injury and is listed as questionable for tonight. Should he be ruled out once again, the duo if Nikola Vucevic and Zach Lavine make for interesting pieces to NBA lineups. The Bulls are in a similar position as the Raptors heading into the trade deadline in the sense that they have players the league is interested in, and this core simply has not worked. Keep an eye on this injury report leading up to lock, as it could shake the slate up drastically, should players get traded before the deadline.

Brooklyn Nets (OTB)

All eyes will be on Cam Thomas tonight. The sophomore became the league’s youngest player to record 40 or more points in three straight outings at only 21 years old. Moreover, Thomas has averaged 44.7/4.7/3.7 on 56% shooting during his last three outings through a whopping 42.1% usage rate. However, tread with caution on this NBA slate. Both Spencer Dinwiddie and Dorian Finney-Smith are expected to make their debuts with the team. While the latter will not remove from Thomas’ potential, Dinwiddie will surely takeover as the primary ball handler. Make no mistake about it, Thomas still makes for an excellent play in balanced lineups, but he is much riskier than previous slates given the arrival of Dinwiddie.

Honorable Mentions:

Denver Nuggets @ Orlando Magic (OTB)
Milwaukee Bucks @ Los Angeles Lakers (+4.5)

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

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NBA DFS for Ghost’s Gems (Feb. 7)

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

NBA slates will be turned upside down until the trade deadline. Thus, it is imperative to monitor injury reports, both before and after the slate locks. It’s a Taco Tuesday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

Atlanta Hawks @ New Orleans Pelicans (-2.5)

Atlanta Hawks (+2.5)

Trae Young missed the team’s last game but is set to return tonight. Thus, he is one of the most intriguing options on this slate. Over his last seven appearances, Young has scored 20 or more points. Moreover, he has averaged 26.3/3.1/10 on 46.3% shooting. The Pelicans rank second in the NBA versus pick-and-roll offenses, but Trae Young is one of the best in the league to do it and will be counted on to shoulder the load on offense versus a defense that ranks 26th in defensive rating over their last five games.

New Orleans Pelicans (-2.5)

Brandon Ingram missed quite some time for the Pelicans but has come back into the fold. Over his first two games of the month, Ingram has averaged 30.5/7/5.5 on 52.1% shooting. Moreover, he leads the team in field goal attempts during those games, while also leading them in usage rate. Carrying a 36.5% usage rate in this month, Ingram makes for one of the best plays in the mid range of the pricing grid on this NBA slate.

Chicago Bulls @ Memphis Grizzlies (-6.5)

Chicago Bulls (+6.5)

The Bulls are on the second half of a back-to-back and this is a key injury report to monitor. Not only are their players potential rest candidates, but they are also the subject of trade rumors. However, should he suit up, Zach Lavine has a tremendous matchup versus Desmond Bane and is a prime candidate in the mid rage of the pricing grid on this NBA slate. On the season, the latter has a 112.4 net defensive rating, which is second-worst amongst starters. Moreover, Lavine is second in both usage rate and scoring over the team’s last five games, averaging 22.8/6.6/4.2 on 50.6% shooting. The Bulls need to rally wins to make a playoff run, or their Big 3 is doomed to be broken up.

Memphis Grizzlies (-6.5)

The Grizzlies will get both Ja Morant (wrist) and Dillon Brooks (suspension) back in the lineup tonight. We will have to wait for the Bulls’ final injury report to evaluate the potential of this game, but there is plenty to love about the backcourt of Morant and Bane. The two are first and second on the team in usage rate, respectively, while while accounting for 49 points per game. On an NBA slate where value will surely open up, Morant makes too much sense on both sites.

Honorable Mentions

Phoenix Suns @ Brooklyn Nets (OTB)
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Los Angeles Lakers (-7.5)

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

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NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 01/13/2023

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

As has been the theme of the week, tonight’s NBA slate is riddled with injuries. However, plenty of elite game environments remain. It’s a Fajita Friday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

Atlanta Hawks @ Indiana Pacers (+3.5)

Atlanta Hawks (-3.5)

The lone bright spot of the Pacers in their own end of the court has been their on-ball defense. However, this changes drastically with Tyrese Haliburton ruled out for the next two weeks. Trae Young missed last game with an illness, but is off the injury report. Wednesday night was a prime example of how this offense can struggle without the face of their franchise. Not only does Young lead the team with a 33.6% usage rate, but he also leads the team in both scoring and assists as well. Despite swirling rumors around the team, Young has been excellent this NBA season, averaging 27.5/2.9/9.8 on 42.2% shooting.

Indiana Pacers (+3.5)

As mentioned above, Tyrese Haliburton will be out for at least two weeks with a sprained elbow. Thus, there is ample opportunity for others on the offensive side of the ball. While TJ McConnell and Andrew Nembhard figure to share the rock on the starting unit, interest should also lie in Indiana’s shooters. While Atlanta has good on-ball defense thanks to Dejounte Murray, Trae Young has been abysmal on defense with a 117.7 rating. Thus, Buddy Hield and Bennedict Mathurin cannot be overlooked on this NBA slate. Hield leads the league in three-pointers this season with 165 makes. Moreover, he has averaged 18.3 points while shooting 42.7% from behind the arc. Meanwhile, Mathurin continues to lead the Pacers in usage at 25.8% and figures to play a crucial role in this offense in the absence of Haliburton.

Denver Nuggets @ Los Angeles Clippers (-1.5)

Denver Nuggets (+1.5)

Nikola Jokic was a surprising addition to the Nuggets injury report. Known as one of the most durable players in the NBA over recent years, the back-to-back MVP will dictate exposure to this offense. Should he evidently play, he is in a prime spot to lead the slate in scoring. The Clippers currently rank 19th in points allowed in the paint and 24th versus true centers. Moreover, Jokic has averaged 25.5/12.3/11 over his last 13 games, recording a whopping seven triple-doubles along the way. If Jokic is ruled out, Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon will lead the starting unit, while Bones Hyland becomes an intriguing play off the bench.

Los Angeles Clippers (-1.5)

Kawhi Leonard is no longer mispriced on NBA DFS sites. Tonight, in the absence of Paul George, Leonard will once again lead the charge for the Clippers. However, there are other targets in this offense as well. Norman Powell and Terance Mann both continue to log heavy minutes over veterans John Wall and Reggie Jackson. Moreover, Powell has now scored in double digits in each of his last four appearances. During that span, Powell has averaged 18.8/3.5/1.8 on 50% shooting, including 20 or more points in two of his last four outings. If you cannot play Leonard, don’t hesitate to get exposure to this offense in other ways.

Houston Rockets @ Sacramento Kings (-10.5)

Houston Rockets (+10.5)

A rematch of Wednesday’s contest is highlighted for the second time in three days. A key difference, however, is that Kevin Porter Jr. has been ruled out for tonight’s game. Thus, both Jalen Green and Alperen Sengun are elite targets on this NBA slate. On the season, Green leads the team with a 28.1% usage rate and has posted 0.98 fantasy points per minute. However, with KPJ off the court, Green’s output increases to 1.07 fantasy points per minute and a 32.4% usage rate. Moreover, Sengun continues to be ignored by the field. He was highlighted in Wednesday’s article, which you can find here. The sophomore came through with the first triple-double of his career, posting a 10/10/10 scoring line on 55.56% shooting.

Sacramento Kings (-10.5)

Another NBA slate featuring the Kings is another day to play Sabonis or Fox. However, both have been featured countless times over the years. Kevin Huerter was scratched on Wednesday because of an illness and he did not practice yesterday. Should Huerter be ruled out for tonight’s game, both Malik Monk and Terence Davis will play larger roles on offense against one of, if not the worst defense in the NBA. However, make no mistake about it, Domantas Sabonis and De’Aaron Fox are the prime targets here.

Honorable Mentions:

Golden State Warriors @ San Antonio Spurs (OTB)
Phoenix Suns @ Minnesota Timberwolves (-3.5)
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Chicago Bulls (-4.5)

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

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NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 01/11/2023

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

It is truly crucial to follow the news as an NBA slate unfolds. Yesterday, many players were ruled out, causing short rotations in nearly every game. Tonight, injury reports are one again lengthly and some teams are on the second half of a back-to-back. It’s a Wet Wednesday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

Chicago Bulls @ Washington Wizards (OTB)

Chicago Bulls (OTB)

Both teams in this game have crucial players on their injury reports. For the Bulls, DeMar DeRozan left the team’s last game and did not return due to a quadriceps injury. He is currently listed as questionable for tonight. Whether DeRozan plays or not does not shift the importance that both Nikola Vucevic and Zach Lavine will have on this NBA slate. Over his last eight games, Vucevic has posted seven double-doubles. Moreover, he has averaged 17.6/13.8/3.5 on 56.1% shooting during that span. Lavine has also picked it up in what can only be described as a disappointing season. Over his last three games, Lavine leads the team with a 31.3% usage rate. He has three straight outings with 27 or more points, including 36-point and 41-point efforts. Over his last three, Lavine has averaged 34.7/5.3/4.7 on 56.3% shooting, including a whopping seven three-pointers made per night.

Washington Wizards (OTB)

Washington remains without Bradley Beal and could be even more shorthanded tonight. Both Kristaps Porzingis and Daniel Gafford are listed as questionable, while partially practicing yesterday. Should either frontcourt player miss this one, Rui Hachimura will be in for more offensive looks. On the season, Hachimura has a 22.3% usage rate and 0.90 fantasy points per minute. However, with Beal, Porzingis, and Gafford off the floor, his numbers do not increase by an overwhelming amount. This is large in part due to dominating usage on the second unit, but struggling to coincide with Kyle Kuzma. Thus, on a large NBA slate, exposure to a mediocre offense is far from a must.

Milwaukee Bucks @ Atlanta Hawks (OTB)

Milwaukee Bucks (OTB)

Should players be ruled out at the same rate as last night’s NBA slate, Giannis Antetokounmpo will be the first priority. Despite struggling in a shocking blowout loss to the Hornets, Giannis still has 30 or more points in four of his last six games. During that span, he has averaged 34/14.5/5.7 on 48.9% shooting, despite a 9/4/0 stat line against the Hornets. Moreover, the Greek Freak is in a tremendous matchup. With Clint Capela still out for the Hawks, Onyeka Okongwu will be severely outmatched in the paint on both ends of the floor. The Hawks rank 26th in points in the paint per game, paving the way for Giannis to dominate on both ends of the paint tonight.

Atlanta Hawks (OTB)

Despite Jrue Holiday being an elite defender, the Bucks have been getting dominated by opposing primary ball handlers as of late. In their last three games, the Bucks have allowed Jalen Brunson to drop 44/7/4, while giving up 24/3/12 to LaMelo Ball, and 28/8/12 to Fred VanVleet. In his last four games, Trae Young has scored 30 or more points in three appearances. Moreover, he has averaged 28.3/3.5/9.3 on 48% shooting. With the Hawks ranked 5th in the NBA in pace, this offense will be one to focus on.

Houston Rockets @ Sacramento Kings (OTB)

Houston Rockets (OTB)

Despite their opponent’s success in the standings, they still rank 24th in the NBA in defensive rating. Moreover, they rank 4th in pace, creating an elite game environment for a young Rockets offense. In their last ten games, the Kings have also allowed 120.9 points per game, so there is plenty of intrigue here. Despite a tough matchup on paper versus Domantas Sabonis, Alperen Sengun will be needed to match his fellow center’s minutes. Moreover, the Kings rank 29th in the NBA in points allowed in the paint. Over his last five games, Sengun has scored in double digits each time. Moreover, he has averaged 15.6/7.6/3.2 on 51.9% shooting during that span. If the matchup is concerning for your lineups, both Kevin Porter Jr. and Jalen Green have a ton of upside in this matchup, with the former being the preferred target.

Sacramento Kings (OTB)

On the season, the Rockets rank 28th in the NBA in defensive rating, allowing nearly 116 points per game. Moreover, they rank last in the league against primary ball handlers. De’Aaron Fox has been playing at an all-star level this year. He leads the team in usage rate at 29.2% and scoring with 23.8 points per game. Moreover, Fox has scored 20 or more points in 11 of his last 13 appearances, averaging 26.4/3.8/7.1 on 50.4% shooting. This is also a tremendous matchup for Kevin Huerter. The Rockets allow a league-worst 14.3 three-pointers per game. On the season, Huerter has been lights out from behind the arc. He has averaged three three-pointers made per game, shooting 42% from deep. He has 11th in the NBA in three-pointers made per game, while being 14th in shooting percentage.

Honorable Mentions:

Minnesota Timberwolves @ Detroit Pistons (+5.5)
New Orleans Pelicans @ Boston Celtics (-9.5)
Phoenix Suns @ Denver Nuggets (OTB)

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

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