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Atlanta Braves

MLB DFS Aces and Stacks (July 19)

Welcome to Wednesday’s edition of Aces and Bases, where I’ll go through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.

Today we are back to having a split slate on a Wednesday. This article will be focused on the 8-game MLB DFS slate that starts at 7 pm EST. This slate has a real lack of high-end pitching, but it does have a bunch of mid-level pitching that has some extra upside. We also have some bats that should be in solid spots tonight.

Let’s dig in and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Eduardo Rodriguez vs. Kansas City Royals

Although the Royals caused Tarik Skubal to have a negative outing yesterday, I’m still going to go right back to the well and attack them today. Skubal was cruising along until he completely imploded in the fourth inning. With Rodriguez being more of a seasoned vet, I don’t see the same thing happening two games in a row. Rodriguez has now been back for 2 starts.

In his first start, he was very blah as he finished with just 9 DK points. In outing number 2 we saw vintage ERod as he finished with 21 DK points. He’s amassed 14 K’s across the 2 starts and I don’t see any reason why he can’t get another 7 in this one. This is still a bad Royals team and one that we should feel comfortable attacking with a pitcher. I’m comfortable with ERod tonight.

Kent Maeda vs. Seattle Mariners

Really like this spot for Kent Maeda tonight. Bailey Ober was able to have a strong outing vs. this Mariners team tonight and Maeda is a bit more skilled than Ober. Especially from a K standpoint. Over the last month, Maeda has had a K rate of over 33%. He’s had at least 6 strikeouts in 4 of his last 5 outings.

Against a Mariners team that is striking out 30% of the time since the All-Star break, Maeda has some strong upside and we could potentially see more of a ceiling-type game. There’s definitely some risk with Maeda as the Mariners have a strong lineup, but they strike out a ton and I’m going to chase the strikeouts tonight as we all know that strikeouts are King in MLB DFS.

Luis Castillo vs. Minnesota and Justin Verlander vs. Chicago White Sox are also in play. The pitching is not very deep tonight. I doubt I’ll stray from my top 2, but adding Castillo and Verlander to my player pool gives me some more options.

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Atlanta Braves vs. Ryne Nelson

This Braves lineup is just dominant. They scored a boatload of runs last night and will more than likely score more tonight vs. Ryne Nelson. They have a significant lead in home runs over the next team and they are 1 of just 4 teams that have scored over 500 runs this season. Few teams have the ability to put up runs like the Braves. It helps that they’ll be facing a pitcher in Ryne Nelson that has somewhat struggled over the last month.

Over his last 28 innings of work, he’s allowed 5 bombs and 10 barrels. Of the pitchers throwing tonight, no one has allowed more barrels than Nelson over the last month. From a priority standpoint, we’ll want to focus on the lefties first. They have a significantly higher ISO and wOBA than righties. That said, righties are also very much in play tonight.

We’ll want to get Matt Olson, Ozzie Albies, and Michael Harris into our lineups tonight. As I said above, lefties have crushed Nelson so far this season. They have a .243 ISO and a .379 wOBA. Both numbers are much higher than Nelson would like. Olson has been one of the better hitters in baseball this season and AA has looked like a genius for trading for him a couple of seasons ago. Against righties, Olson has a .430 wOBA and a .362 ISO. He’ll be a lock in my lineups tonight.

We can’t ignore Ronald Acuna or Austin Riley tonight. Riley finally broke out of his slump last night with 2 homers and 7 RBI. While I doubt we see a replication of that type of night, his bat looked solid and he should do well tonight.

New York Mets vs. Touki Toussaint

The Mets offense showed last night that they do have some upside when motivated as they scored 11 runs vs. Lucas Giolito and the White Sox pen. Tonight they’ll get an easier matchup vs. Touki Toussaint. While Touki hasn’t pitched that poorly this season, there’s a reason why he hasn’t pitched so sparingly in the Majors over the last few years and why he has bounced around from team to team. He’s just not that good.

He’s sporting a career ERA over 5 and an xFIP that is nearly identical. He’ll regress back to his career numbers and I expect that to happen tonight vs. a Mets team has does have some potential, even if their record doesn’t show it. Over the course of his career, lefties have been his weakness so we’ll want to prioritize them in our stack.

The 3 guys I’ll prioritize here will be Brandon Nimmo, Francisco Lindor, and Jeff McNeil. McNeil has had a down year, but he did show some promise last night with a pair of RBI hits. If he can replicate that tonight, we’ll get someone that has upside at just $3.2k. This was last year’s NL batting champ at a severely reduced price. If last night triggered him, we’re getting a huge discount here.

Brandon Nimmo’s on-base numbers are down this year, but his power is up. I really like his price point of $4.1k tonight. Other bats to include here will be Francisco Alvarez, Pete Alonso, Brett Batty, and Daniel Vogelbach. My hope is that the Mets bats continue their momentum from last night.

Other stacks tonight are a complete game stack of the Reds/Giants game. Both sides could put up big numbers. I also really like the Cubs vs. Trevor Williams.

MLB DFS Summary

This is a tricky slate tonight. Pitching looks really tough and bats appear to be spread out. Pick your contests wisely.

Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

2 years ago 0 comments

MLB DFS Aces and Stacks (July 14)

Joel Bartilotta 2 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to Friday’s edition of Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.

We are back! After a nice break thanks to the All-Star Game, we are blessed with a massive 14-game slate of MLB DFS tonight. Teams are mostly rested and rotations are mostly reset. This should be a fun slate as we have a little bit of everything. We have good pitching, we have bad pitching, we have OK pitching.

Let’s dig and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Kenta Maeda vs. Oakland Athletics

Kenta Maeda is my SP1 tonight and I don’t think it’s very close. He has been, for the most part, lights out this season for the Twins. Over the last month, he’s dialed it up to a nearly 33% K rate and just a 1.59 ERA. His WHIP, an extremely important number, is under 1. That’s just phenomenal. He gets the pleasure of facing off against a terrible Oakland Athletics team.

Against righties this season, they’ve been bad. Like really bad. They have a 25% K rate and an OPS of just .643. Both of those are just horrendous numbers. Can the Athletics surprise? Yeah, they’ve done it a few times this season. I just don’t see them doing it tonight vs. a very good pitcher in Maeda. Maeda, at just $7.7k on DK, is an absolute lock in all of my lineups tonight.

Tyler Glasnow vs. Kansas City Royals

His price has slowly started to creep up there and he’s above $10k on DK for the third straight outing. IF we’re being honest, I would have paid upwards of $11k for Glasnow tonight, he’s been that good. He’s coming off 2 outings against 2 very solid teams in Atlanta and Seattle in which he still scored over 20 DK points. He has a nearly 40% K rate over his last 26 innings of work and the last time he faced the Royals, he finished with 30 DK points.

Like the A’s, this is a bad Royals team. Outside of Bobby Whitt, there’s little to get excited for Royals fans. My most likely pairing of pitchers tonight will be Maeda and Glasnow. Combined, they’ll cost us just $18k. That will leave us right at $4k per bat, which is really good considering the upside we’re getting with our pitchers.

Charlie Morton vs. Chicago White Sox

If you want to get fancy tonight, Charlie Morton is also an option on the mound. The White Sox are huge disappointments this season and are 16 games under .500 heading into the unofficial second half of the baseball season. Morton for himself has been pretty good of late. Over his last 27 innings of work, Morton has an ERA of 2.28 and a K rate of nearly 29%.

He’s also a massive favorite in this one so getting the win bonus here is almost a certainty. Again, I’m more than likely sticking with Maeda/Glasnow as my starters, but if you were to substitute Morton for one of them you won’t be that far off from the best pairing of pitchers tonight. He should, in theory, be able to dominate this bad White Sox team.

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Alec Marsh

When in doubt, stack the Rays. Just kidding, the Rays are always in play, even though they kind of sputtered into the All-Star Break. The Rays get a great matchup tonight vs. Alec Marsh. Marsh has now made 2 starts in the big leagues. His first went very poorly against the Dodgers and his second was just about average against an average Twins lineup. Combined, he’s allowed 3 homers in 9 innings of work and he’s also allowed a WHIP of 1.78.

A WHIP that high is very bad and it means he puts on nearly 2 runners per inning. Against a really good Rays lineup, that’s not going to cut it and if he does it again, the Rays are going to put up a mammoth number. I’m not going to be concerned with splits tonight. Marsh has been pretty bad vs. both sides of the plate.

At this point, when it comes to the Rays you know the drill. We’ll want to prioritize getting guys like Randy Arozarena, Josh Lowe, Luke Raley, and Isaac Paredes. Wander Franco is the premier name in this lineup, but I’ll be honest he’s been average this season in most offensive categories and I’m having a hard time justifying paying $5.7k for him tonight.

So I’ll stick with Aroz, Lowe, Raley, and Paredes as my core. Each of these 4 has home run potential tonight against Marsh. Other bats to consider here will be Jose Siri and Brandon Lowe. This is a great spot for the Rays tonight. Vegas currently has them close to 6. We’ll just need to keep an eye on the weather as it’s supposed to storm in KC.

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Ryne Nelson

So far this season what we’ve learned about Ryne Nelson is that when he’s off, he’s really off. He’s coming off an outing that saw him give up 7 ER to the New York Mets. A couple of weeks before that, he gave up 5 to the Phillies. Over his last 32 innings of work, some of the numbers he has are baffling. 15 barrels, 5 homers, a 50% flyball rate, and just a 54% swing rate.

He’s not fooling hitters and they are swinging at balls they can hit. We’ll attack him tonight with a lineup for the Blue Jays that have been excellent vs. righties this season. They have a .751 OPS and a .166 ISO vs. them. Pretty solid numbers if you ask me.

Up and down this lineup we have some solid hitters. The first 2 bats I’m looking to lock in tonight here are going to be Home Run Derby Champion, Vladimir Guerrero. Over the last 30 days, he has a .213 ISO vs. righties and he’s facing off against a very beatable righty tonight.

After that, I’ll look to grab George Springer and Matt Chapman. Both guys have been really solid vs. righties this season and have actually turned it up a notch over the past 30 days. Springer has a .377 wOBA vs. them over the last 30 days and Chapman has a .346. Both guys should smash tonight! I also like Brandon Belt and Daulton Varsho.

As is always the case, the Braves are in play vs. Michael Kopech. His ERA is low over the last month, but his numbers indicate he should be getting smashed. He’ll get smashed tonight vs. the Braves. I like Acuna, Murphy, and Albies the most here.

MLB DFS Summary

Welcome back y’all. We have a full Friday slate. We’ll want to keep an eye on the weather as there are a handful of games that have thunderstorm potential.

Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.

2 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS Aces & Stacks (June 16)

Joel Bartilotta 2 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to Friday’s edition of Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.

It’s full-slate Friday and tonight we have a massive 14-game slate of MLB DFS to navigate through. This slate brings us a lack of high-end pitching, but it does bring us some competent starters that are in good spots. We also have a healthy amount of bats that are in solid spots so we should see some offense tonight.

Let’s dig and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Michael Kopech vs. Seattle Mariners

The former top prospect for the Chicago White Sox is finally living up to his potential.. Since May 12, Michael Kopech has 3 starts where he hasn’t allowed an ER. That’s over the course of 6 starts. Over those 6 starts, he’s also had no less than 5 strikeouts in any game, with 2 of the starts being in double digits. From a DK standpoint, Kopech has reached into the upper 20’s in 3 of his last 5 starts. The 2 starts that he didn’t, he was still in the upper teens.

Tonight, he’ll have the luxury of facing off against a Mariners lineup that for the most part has been extremely disappointing. With how well Kopech has been pitching and how inconsistent the Mariners have been, this sets up nicely for Kopech to have a solid night tonight.

Taijuan Walker vs. Oakland Athletics

After a nice stretch of baseball and their reverse boycott, the Oakland Athletics have come back down to earth and have lost back-to-back games. After tonight, it should be 3 straight losses as they face the streaking Philadelphia Phillies. The Phillies have won 8 of their last 10 games and show no signs of slowing down. They’ll turn the ball over to Taijuan Walker tonight.

Walker is coming off back-to-back dominant starts and hasn’t allowed more than 3 ER in a start since May 17. He’s pitching some of his best baseball in a Phillies uniform and a date with the A’s shouldn’t slow him down. Walker is mostly a splitter pitcher as he throws it more than 30% of the time to both sides of the plate. Up and down the lineup, this is a pitch that the A’s struggle with. He should haven’t a dominant outing.

Other pitchers that I’m interested in tonight are going to be Rich Hill vs. Milwaukee and Julio Teheran vs. Pittsburgh. The Brewers have been awful vs. lefties this season and there is no lefty craftier than Hill. He very well could walk through this lineup tonight. On the other side of the game, Teheran has been brilliant since being recalled by the Brewers. Although the Pirates have been good this year, Teheran has a shot to really dominate them tonight.

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Atlanta Braves vs. Dinelson Lamet

We’ll be using the Braves often the rest of the way out. They are as good of a lineup in baseball as there is. Up and down the lineup they have studs and with a matchup against Dinelson Lamet tonight, they should crush. Lamet has struggled mightily this season as his ERA for the year is north of 10. When you’re talking about a pitcher in double digits in terms of ERA, that’s bad. Since being recalled at the end of May, Lamet has allowed a hard-hit rate of nearly 40%.

Although he’s only allowed 1 homer in the 11 innings, it’s only a matter of time before more balls leave the park when you combine his hard-hit rate and his nearly 37% fly ball rate. We have no reason to be selective with any specific side of the plate tonight as Lamet has been horrendous against both righties and lefties.

The obvious plays here are Ronald Acuna and Matt Olson. They are the 2 premier hitters in this lineup and have as much as upside as anyone else tonight. They’ll cost us a pretty penny though. If you play them together, they’re going to eat up nearly $13k of your budget on DK. The not-so-obvious plays tonight from the Braves will be Ozzie Albies, Michael Harris, and Marcel Ozuna.

The three of them rank 2,3, and 4 in terms of wRC over the last week on the Braves. They are also significantly cheaper than both Acuna and Olson. With all of that being said, this entire lineup is going to be in play tonight. They have a current implied run total of close to 6.5. This game is in Atlanta, not Colorado. Expect the Braves to score a ton tonight.

Kansas City Royals vs. Patrick Sandoval

Patrick Sandoval is having a season to forget. His strikeouts are down nearly 3 per 9 innings and his ERA is the highest it’s been since all the way back in the shortened season of 2020. If we look at what he’s done more recently, he’s been even worse. Over the last month, his ERA is over 7.5 and he’s allowing a ton of hard contact at 38%. He’s also allowing a ton of runners with a WHIP of 2.11.

If the Royals can be patient tonight, they’ll get some runners on. It’s simple math, more runners equals more opportunities for runs. Another reason for this route with the Royals is that they’re cheap. Outside of this Bobby Witt and Salvador Perez, there’s a ton of value in this lineup.

Like the Braves, we have some obvious plays and those are going to be Witt and Perez. They both stand to do well against Sandoval tonight. I’m going to look to some cheap guys though to help afford some of those expensive Braves. Both Maikel Garcia and Edward Olivares have done well vs. southpaws this season.

Garcia has a wOBA of .388 in 53 plate appearances and Olivares has a .353 wOBA in 116 plate appearances. MJ Melendez is also in play as he’s good vs. lefties and Sandoval has actually been slightly worse against lefties this season. He’s just $3.1k on DK tonight. Again, there’s a lot of value in this Royals lineup to get in the expensive Braves.

Other stacks I like tonight are going to be the Cardinals vs. Tylor Megill and the Phillies vs. JP Sears. The Phillies are red hot and are facing a pitcher in Sears that should see some negative regression. His xFIP is nearly 3 runs higher than his ERA. The Phillies should accelerate that regression tonight with how well they’ve been hitting.

MLB DFS Summary

This slate tonight has a little bit of everything. Solid pitching and solid spots for offense. There are many different routes to points tonight and the ones I laid out are my favorite.

Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.

2 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS Aces & Stacks (May 31)

Joel Bartilotta 2 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to Wednesday’s edition of Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.

It’s Wednesday and we have day baseball! This article will be focused on the early 7-game slate of MLB DFS. This slate has a ton of landmines at first glance. Average pitchers pitching well and some really bad pitchers that we can stack against with subpar offenses.

Let’s dig and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Mitch Keller vs. San Francisco Giants

It’s tough to ignore what Mitch Keller has been doing. Over the last month, Keller has a 2.45 ERA and most importantly a nearly 35% k rate. He has 6 consecutive starts with striking out at least 8 hitters. He’ll be facing a Giants team that has struck out more than 25% of the time against righties this season. Between his K ability and the Giants’ propensity to strike out vs. righties, there’s a world of upside today for him.

Does he come with some level of risk? Of course, the Giants have been hitting the ball a bit better of late. That said, they were shut down by Oviedo and the Pirates bullpen last night. He’s my SP1 today and I’m not looking back.

Jared Shuster vs. Oakland Athletics

I don’t mind paying down for Shuster today. While he hasn’t been spectacular, he’s thrown together back-to-back decent outings. Between the 2 outings, Shuster was able to strike out 12 batters and that’s what I’m focused on. At just $6.5 on DK today, he’s someone that we don’t need much. If he can get us 5-6 strikeouts this afternoon and only let in a couple of runs, he can surely pay off his cheap salary.

It also helps that he’s facing a very mediocre Athletics lineup today. They’re not awful anymore, but I wouldn’t put them anywhere near the good category either. Shuster should have a decent day today.

Other arms I like today are going to be Zach Eflin vs. the Cubs and Lance Lynn vs. the Angels.

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Texas Rangers vs. Joey Wentz

Boy, this Angels lineup is good. They put up a 10 spot last night and it’s not out of the question to see them do it again today as they’re facing a pitcher in Joey Wentz that has a 9.30 ERA over his last 20+ innings of work. Over those innings, he’s given up 6 bombs and 7 barrels. He’s allowed 11 ER over his last 2 outings. He’s someone that we should and we will attack today.

We’ll want to target the righties here. They’ve been smashing him to the tune of a .238 ISO and a .388 wOBA. They also have a 44% flyball rate and a 41% hard-hit rate. All significantly higher than what lefties have done against him this season.

The three righties in this lineup that I’m going to be targeting the most today will be Josh Jung, Leody Taveras, and Marcus Semien. Both Jung and Taveras have OPSs over 1.000 over the last week. Jung is 8 for his last 19 and Taveras is 8 for his last 18. Both guys are in great spots today to continue with their strong play of late. Semien hasn’t been as hot as the 2 of them, but he’s had a decent last 7 days with 6 hits in 22 AB. He’s also driven in 5 over that stretch.

While he won’t have the platoon advantage today, I also do like Corey Seager here. He’s hitting the ball hard right now and has driven in 9 over the last week. We can’t expect Wentz to last more than an AB or 2 so at some point Seager should have the platoon advantage. I normally play Garcia, but he’s struggling at the plate right now. He’s in play but with much risk.

Atlanta Braves vs. James Kaprielian

The Braves were a huge disappointment last night, scoring just 1 run vs. JP Sears and the A’s bullpen. Sears has been pitching well so it wasn’t overly surprising to see him keep the Braves in check. That said, the A’s bullpen still went 3 and held the Braves hitless. That all changes today as Kaprielian is just not good and someone we should always consider attacking.

He’s been blasted at times this season and that should happen again today. Over the last month, he’s been giving up a ton of hard hits and even more flyballs (50%). That won’t cut it against the Braves. We want the lefties here, all of em. Kap has given up a .345 ISO to them this season and a .459 wOBA.

Knowing that I’m loading up on Matt Olson, Ozzie Albies, and Eddie Rosario today. Olson has been a beast this season vs. righties, with a .373 ISO and a .424 wOBA. Anytime he’s at-bat, especially when he’s in a matchup like he is today, he’s a home run waiting to happen. I can absolutely see him taking Kap very deep today. While they won’t have the platoon advantage, guys like Ronald Acuna and Austin Riley are always in play. The Braves will look to rebound after last night and put up a massive number today.

Other stacks I’m interested in this afternoon are going to be Washington vs. Noah Syndergaard, Rays vs. Justin Steele, and to a lesser extent the Dodgers vs. Patrick Corbin

MLB DFS Summary

Both the Braves and Rangers are in absolute smash spots today and I’ll be making it a priority to get bats from both of those lineups into my MLB DFS lineups today.

Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.

2 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS Aces & Stacks (May 22)

Joel Bartilotta 2 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to Monday’s edition of Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.

It’s Monday Funday and that typically means a smaller MLB DFS slate. Today we have a 7-game slate of MLB DFS to navigate through. At some point, I really hope that sites adapt to the earlier start times because there are some solid games that start between 6-7 pm. Tonight’s slate is void of any true aces but we have some solid mid-tier pitching. We’ll also have some decent spots for offense.

Let’s dig and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Luis Castillo vs. Oakland Athletics

I suspect that Luis Castillo will be the chalk pitcher of the night and he’s going to be really tough to fade. The A’s are an extremely beatable team night in and night out. We saw Framber Valdez dominate this lineup yesterday, throwing a complete game shutout. Now Valdez is a lefty so it’s not an apples-to-apples comparison, but this just isn’t a good team that Castillo will be facing.

Castillo has looked rather pedestrian over his last handful of starts. However, we need to look at who he has faced over that stretch. The Red Sox, Rangers, Houston, and Toronto. All very solid lineups. I like this matchup tonight for Castillo to get right and have one of his more dominant outings of the year. He’s the SP1 for me tonight and I don’t think it’s very close.

Michael Lorenzen vs. Kansas City Royals

After a decent stretch of offense for the Royals, they came crashing down hard against the White Sox. In the 3-game set vs. the White Sox, the Royals scored just 3 runs and struck out 28 times. Not a good look for a young team. While Lorenzen isn’t necessarily known for strikeouts, I think he has some upside here.

He was able to dial it up to 7 k’s in his last outing and he’ll be facing a projected Royals lineup tonight that has a 25% k rate vs. righties this year and an embarrassing .284 wOBA. This is a spot that screams upside for the Tigers right-hander. He’s always a risk because he’s an average at best pitcher, but I do really like this spot for him tonight.

Two other pitchers tonight that I don’t mind are Christian Javier vs. Milwaukee Brewers and Edward Cabrera vs. Colorado in Colorado. With Javier, he’ll be facing an inconsistent Brewers lineup. Javier has been one of the top pitchers in baseball this season and he should be able to navigate this lineup. My like for Cabrera is that he’s a ground ball pitcher that has a high k upside. Over the last month, he’s allowed just a 24.5% flyball rate. If he can keep the ball on the ground in Colorado, he should do well against a bad Rockies lineup.

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Seattle Mariners vs. Kyle Muller

Certain things in life are guaranteed, with death and taxes being 2 of them. This season, stacking against the Oakland Athletics has become close to a certainty. I’ll be stacking against them most nights and tonight will be no different. Muller is coming into this having allowed at least 5 ER in 3 straight games. He’s allowed at least 5 ER in 5 games this season. It’s not even June yet. While lefties will still be in play tonight, we want to prioritize getting the righties in here. They have a 48% hard-hit rate vs. him and a wOBA over .400

Before we get into which guys I want here, I need to give the bad first. The Mariners have not been good vs. lefties this season. They’ve actually struggled quite mightily. That said, it’s Kyle Muller and he’s no average lefty. He’s atrocious. The 3 guys I’ll look to prioritize here will be Teoscar Hernandez, Julio Rodriguez, and Eugenio Suarez.

Hernandez is my favorite of the bunch. He strikes out quite a bit vs. lefties, but he also has immense power with an ISO of .333. Ty France and AJ Pollock are also going to be options here. In fact, the whole team is in play because Muller and the A’s are just bad and will more often than not give up a lot of runs.

Atlanta Braves vs. Gavin Stone

Gavin Stone’s big league debut did not go well. Against the Phillies, he allowed 4 ER in just 4 innings of work. While he didn’t give up any homers, he did allow a ton of contact with an 87% contact rate. Things won’t get any easier for him as he gets to take on the first-place Atlanta Braves in his second outing. The Braves are one of the top lineups in the league and if it’s anything like the Phillies game, he’s going to struggle once again.

The three main attractions here will be Ronald Acuna, Matt Olson, and a surprising Orland Arcia. All three guys had monster weeks with OPSs of over 1.200. Arcia actually led the way with an OPS of 1.274 over the last week. Back to the star of the team in Acuna.

Acuna is seeing the ball as well as he has ever seen it. Over the last week, Acuna has 5 barrels and a 60% hard-hit rate. None of his contact over the last week has fallen into the Soft category. We are witnessing one of the top players in the league return to form and it’s a ton of fun to watch. Other options in this lineup tonight will be Marcell Ozuna, Austin Riley, and Sean Murphy. I also like Ozzie Albies here.

Other stacks to look at tonight will be the Marlins vs. Chase Anderson, Angels vs. Tanner Houck, and Twins vs. John Brebbia

MLB DFS Summary

This is shaping up to be an interesting slate. I plan on going heavy with the Mariners tonight, but also sprinkling in some Braves where I can afford them.

Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.

2 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS Aces & Stacks (Mar. 30)

Joel Bartilotta 2 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the first edition of Aces and Bases for the 2023 season, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.

We did it, my friends. We made it through the winter and the MLB season is finally upon us. If you haven’t noticed yet, the game is very different this season. With the newly implemented pitch clock, the game is faster. We’ll definitely see some different things happening earlier in the season until all the players are fully used to playing quicker.

That said, it’s still baseball and it’s going to be fun to watch. We have a great 11-game slate today of MLB DFS today. With it being opening day, we have some studs on the mount so we’ll have a lot of low-scoring games. We also have some really bad pitchers throwing, so there should still be some offense.

Let’s dig and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Max Scherzer vs. Miami Marlins

Max Scherzer is coming off what was mostly a successful 2022 campaign in his first season with the Mets. While he did spend some time on the IL last season, when he was healthy, he was the Scherzer we have come to love. His K/9 were in line with his career numbers and he still managed to get double-digit victories, a rarity these days with pitchers not going too long in games.

Scherzer gets arguably one of the easier matchups today as he’ll face off against the Miami Marlins. While their lineup is a little improved over last season with the addition of Luis Arraez, they are still a bad lineup. The projected lineup for the Marlins today had just a .110 ISO and a .285 wOBA vs. righties last season. Scherzer should be able to navigate this lineup with ease this afternoon.

Shane McClanahan vs. Detroit Tigers

Another pitcher with a solid matchup today will be Shane McClanahan. McClanahan is coming off a very solid sophomore season. In his second season, McClanahan set career highs in both wins and innings pitched. At just $7.7k on DK today, we’ll be getting a pitcher that had a 30% K rate in 2022. I’ll take that every day of the week.

This Tigers lineup is not one that will strike fear in any pitcher’s eyes. It’s pretty weak up and down the lineup. Last season, this team had just a .129 ISO vs. lefties. The Tigers will more than likely throw out 8 righties today. McClanahan had a higher K rate last season vs. righties than he did lefties and that sets him up for a solid day today. You should feel very confident throwing McClanahan out in your lineups today.

Corbin Burnes vs. Chicago Cubs

I expect Corbin Burnes to have a monster season in 2023. I wouldn’t be shocked to see him win the NL Cy Young award this season. Burnes is coming off a very solid 2022. Like McClanahan, Burnes also set career highs in both Wins and Innings pitched. While the K’s were down a smidge from years past, his K rate was still at a very respectable 30% in 2022. I expect that number to climb this season.

The Cubs lineup will be improved this season with the additions of Dansby Swanson, Cody Bellinger, and Mancini. That said, it’s still a below-average lineup and one we’ll be able to chase K’s against, especially with a righty on the hill. This projected lineup today for the Cubs had a 25% K rate vs. righties in 2022. There’s definitely some upside in throwing out Burnes today.

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Atlanta Braves vs. Patrick Corbin

When I opened up the schedule today and saw that Patrick Corbin was the opening-day starter for the Nationals 2 things came to mind. The first was that they were going to have an awful rotation this season. Corbin is the epitome of a gas can and while he’ll eventually throw out a gem, more often than not he’s hot garbage.

The second was that the Braves would be extremely popular. They’ll be popular for good reason. Corbin was atrocious in 2022. He pitched to a nearly 5 xFIP and gave up a nearly 50% hard-hit rate. His 58 barrels against far exceed any pitcher on the hill today. When Corbin is on the mound, we attack!

This stack will start with Austin Riley today. He was one of the best in baseball against lefties last season, with a .336 ISO and a .435 wOBA. He should continue to smash against lefties today in a very soft matchup. Next up will be Ronald Acuna. Acuna is now far removed from the knee surgery that saw him start out slowly last season. He matchups up extremely well today vs. Corbin. Corbin mostly throws a sinker to righties. This is a pitch that Acuna has done well against, with a .375 ISO.

I also really like Matt Olson here. Never fear the L/L matchup, especially against Corbin. Olson also has really strong numbers vs. lefty sinkers. Other guys I like here will be Sean Murphy and Travis d’Arnaud.

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Eduardo Rodriguez

2022 was not kind to Eduardo Rodriguez. He had one of the worst seasons of his career last year. His strikeouts were down significantly and his xFIP was one of the highest numbers of his career. To make matters worse for him, he’ll be facing off against a Rays team that just crushes lefties. The projected Rays lineup today had a .171 ISO and a .337 wOBA vs. lefties last season. They have some lefty smashers and we’ll want to take advantage of that today.

My priority with the Rays stack today will be Randy Arozarena. He smashed lefties last year, to the tune of a .240 ISO and a .382 wOBA. Fresh off his WBC stint, he’s becoming a force to be reckoned with. He’ll be in all of my lineups today. Next up will be Yandy Diaz. While he doesn’t hit for much power vs. lefties, he does have a very high wOBA of .379. He’ll set the tone at the top of this lineup today.

My value plays in this lineup will be Isaac Paredes, Christian Bethancourt, and Jose Siri. Of the bunch, Paredes is my favorite as he showed a lot of pop at times last season. Franco, Margot, and Ramirez are also very much in play today.

Boston Red Sox vs. Kyle Gibson

The Baltimore Orioles offense is going to be a fun one to watch this season. They are much improved up and down the lineup. The rotation however is still one that is awful and one we’ll be able to attack often. On most teams, Kyle Gibson would be a back-of-the-rotation guy. For the Orioles, he’s being asked to be the ace of the staff. That says a lot about the Orioles’ pitching staff. With Gibson, I’m not going to be overly concerned with splits. His numbers against both sides of the plate are pretty similar.

Any Red Sox stack needs to start with their star player, Rafael Devers. Devers had a very solid year vs. righties in 2022 and he made us some money with our MLB DFS lineups. He had a .252 ISO and a wOBA that was pushing .400. He’s extremely pricey today at nearly $6k, but he should do extremely well in this matchup vs. Gibson. Next up will be a newcomer to the states, Masataka Yoshida.

Yoshida was a star in Japan and his skillset should transfer pretty nicely to the states. He’ll be hitting in the middle of this lineup today and is fairly priced at $4.4k. Other guys I really like here today will be Trison Casas at just $2.9k on DK, Reese McGuire at just $2.2k, and Alex Verdugo. The Red Sox are set up today to put up a big number on opening day. Vegas likes them a lot, and so do I!

MLB DFS Summary

We waited many months for this day and it’s going to be a great one. I plan on loading up on both Rays and Braves with my bats. My pitching will be focused on Mad Max and Shane Mac. This will hopefully be a recipe for success today!

Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.

2 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS Aces & Stacks (Sept. 28)

Joel Bartilotta 3 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Wednesday edition of the Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.

Tonight we have a massive 12-game slate of MLB DFS tonight. In case you haven’t noticed, we’re at the point in the season where things have gotten wonky. Carlos Carrasco was in a smash spot last night and was negative DK points. The White Sox were 2-hit last night by Baily Ober. And the Rangers bullpen was able to wipe the floor with the Mariners.

Let’s dig in and see if we can find some stacks to use today!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Zac Gallen vs. Houston Astros

The matchup isn’t great for Gallen tonight as the Astros are one of the top lineups in the league. That said, we thought the same thing about his matchup in his last outing vs. the Dodgers and he went on to pitch 8 innings of 1-run ball while striking out 13. Zac Gallen is the real deal folks. All of his metrics are top-tier.

He gets ahead of most hitters with a 67.5% first strike percentage and has a chase rate of nearly 33%. His 35.9% k rate over the last month is top of any pitcher on the hill tonight. He’s been lights out over the last few months. There’s definitely a risk in using him as an SP1 tonight, but there’s also a ton of upside for him with the way he’s pitching right now.

Justin Verlander vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

Spot starter Luis Garcia was able to hold the Diamondbacks in check last night. There’s absolutely no reason to think that Justin Verlander can’t do the same tonight as he’s in a way different class than Garcia. Since coming off the IL, Verlander has only thrown 11 innings. Over those 11 innings, he was able to K 13 batters and give up just 2 ER.

Although the Orioles were able to get 6 hits off of him in 6 innings last outing, most of those hits were just dumb luck as they were held to a 27% hard-hit rate in the game. He was up to 93 pitches in his last outing so I don’t think we’ll need to worry so much about a pitch count with Verlander. This is a solid spot tonight for him tonight

Brandon Woodruff vs. St. Louis Cardinals

We have another stud pitcher in a not-so-great spot with Brandon Woodruff facing off against the Cardinals. Woodruff has been lights out over the last month though. His K rate is up to 32% over that stretch and he has just a 2.76 ERA. That 2.76 is right in line with his 2.94 xFIP. Woodruff has also been doing a great job in limiting hard contact as hitters have a sub-30 % hard-hit rate vs. him over the last 30 days.

While the matchup is tough, Vegas really likes Woodruff as they have the Cards with an IRT of just 3.22 tonight. The biggest downside for the Woodruff thought tonight will be that the Cardinals do not strike out much vs. righties. Over the last month, the projected lineup has just a 17% K rate vs. righties. That somewhat puts a limit on his ceiling tonight.

Other starters I do like tonight will be Jose Quintana vs. the Brewers. The Brewers are very susceptible to lefties and Quintana is pitching well. I also like George Kirby vs. the Rangers. The Rangers are way better vs. lefties. I’d take his last outing with a grain of salt. The Athletics did the same thing to Jacob Degrom a few days later. Aaron Nola vs. the Cubs is a solid spot as well. As you can see, pitching is loaded tonight.

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Atlanta Braves vs. Josiah Gray

The Nationals are doing absolutely nothing to help my Mets win the NL East. So far in this series, the Braves have put 8 runs in both games. There’s no reason, and I mean no reason with Gray on the mound tonight, to believe they can’t do it again in game 3 of this series. One of the centerpieces of the Scherzer/Turner to the Dodgers trade, Gray just hasn’t pitched well. He’s coming off a stretch that has seen him give up at least 4 ER in 4 consecutive starts. The last 2 of those games were against the star-studded lineup we call the Miami Marlins.

Throughout his brief career, the biggest struggle for Gray has been the ability to keep the ball in the ballpark. This season he has an HR/9 of 2.33. Anything over 2 is just horrendous. He’s the type of pitcher you can go home run hunting off of. While he’s bad to both sides of the plate, we really want to grab any and all lefties here. They have a .357 ISO against him over the last month and a .492 wOBA. 21 of the 37 homers he’s given up this season have been to lefties.

Core/Value: Knowing all of that, I’m starting out my Braves core with Eddie Rosario, Michael Harris, and Matt Olson. Olson is finally starting to show some signs of life at the plate. He has hits in 3 consecutive games and even threw in a walk last night. This is the type of spot that he should continue to fight his way out of the wet paper bag that he’s been in for quite some time.

Next up is Michael Harris. He may be my favorite bat of the night and will be a lock in all of my lineups. He’s coming into this one hot, with 7 hits over his last 4 games. There’s an excellent chance that he takes Gray very deep tonight. Rosario is the value here and it also happens to be his birthday. We always play the birthday narrative, especially when in a matchup like this.

Secondary Pieces: Other bats I’ll look to include here tonight will be Ronald Acuna, Austin Riley, and Travis d’Arnaud. All three have wOBA’s over .350 vs. righties over the last month. Acuna is heating up and is coming into this off of a 2 homer game last night. He’s pricey tonight over $6.1k. I’m not going to force him in, but he’s a solid play. Marcell Ozuna is also a solid value play here. He’s under $3k on DK and will help you fit some of the more expensive bats.

Los Angeles Angels vs. Adrian Martinez

Adrian Martinez is currently locked into one of his worst stretches of pitching this season. Over his last 3 starts, Martinez has allowed 16 ER in a little under 14 innings of work. He’s also given up 6 homers during those 3 games, 4 coming against the Astros in a single game. While the Angels are nowhere near as strong of a lineup as the Astros, they have some major weapons that can do some damage tonight.

With this stack, I’m not going to be overly concerned with splits. Both sides of the plate have slugging %’s over .500 against Martinez. He’s given up 6 homers to both sides of the plates as well.

Core: The core of any Angels stack starts with Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani. Both guys stand solid chances to homer tonight. Martinez throws his sinker 50% of the time to lefties. This is a pitch that Ohtani crushes. Over the last few years, Ohtani has a .372 ISO and a .531 wOBA against righty sinkers. He should absolutely smash tonight.

There’s not much that needs to be said about Mike Trout. He’s the best hitter in the game when healthy and he’s healthy. Both of these guys will be tough to fit together. My lean is Ohtani right now.

Secondary/Value: Other bats to include here will be Taylor Ward, Mike Ford, and Mickey Moniak. Both Ford and Moniak are min priced on DK tonight and open up a world of opportunities for us. They also have, albeit a limited sample size, great numbers vs. righty sinkers.

Boston Red Sox vs. Dean Kremer

This Orioles/Red Sox series has been something, hasn’t it? It’s been an absolute gold mine for MLB DFS. The 2 teams have combined for 44 runs across the 2 games so far. The Red Sox were on the better end last night after scoring 13. The wild scoring should continue tonight with Dean Kremer and Rich Hill on the mound.

I do like the Red Sox better though as the Orioles haven’t been great against lefties. While the ERA has been low for Kremer over the last month, the xFIP is nearly 2 runs higher at 4.44. He’s due for some regression and it could come tonight against a hot Red Sox lineup.

Core/Value: With my Red Sox core tonight I’ll look to lock in Triston Casas, Alex Verdugo, and Rafael Devers. All three of these hitters will have the platoon advantage tonight and are the hottest hitters in this Red Sox lineup right now. Let’s start with Casas. Casas is super-hot right now. He has homered in 3 of his last 6 games and had the best game of his young career last night, going 3-4 with a homer and 2 RBI.

Devers is also hot at the plate right now. He has 5 hits in this series in 9 AB. He’s also driven in 3 runs during the series. He’s homered off of Kremer before and I wouldn’t be shocked if he did it again tonight.

Value: Other bats I like here are going to be Reese McGuire and Rob Refsnyder. Both guys are cheap tonight, with McGuire at $2.6k and Refsndyer at just $2.5k. Refsnyder is having a solid series, with 4 RBI and 4 hits.

MLB DFS Summary

Other MLB DFS stacks I really like tonight will the Mets vs. Luzardo and Orioles vs. Dick Mountain.

Make sure to check out our Home Run Model. And Also make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.

3 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS Aces & Stacks (Sept. 26)

Joel Bartilotta 3 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Monday edition of the Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.

Tonight we have a small 4-game slate of MLB DFS tonight. With so few teams on the schedule, we’ll be extremely limited with our options. Pitching, for all intents and purposes, is absolutely gross tonight. If you were to take a slate off, pick tonight. If you do play, play light.

Let’s dig in and see if we can find some stacks to use today!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Bryce Elder vs. Washington Nationals

The rookie pitcher for the Braves will be making the eighth start of his career tonight. So far, the results have been very good for the 23-year-old. Over his last 3 starts, he’s been brilliant. He’s allowed just 2 ER over 18 innings of work and has struck out 22 hitters.

One of those starts came recently against this same Nationals team and he was able to walk right through them. While it’s always tough to face a team a second straight time, our options are limited right now and Elder has been really good. I’m willing to roll the dice on such a short slate on him.

Luis Severino vs. Toronto Blue Jays

Luis Severino made his first inning last week in more than 2 months. He looked extremely sharp vs. the Pirates, going 5 strong while striking out 6 and allowing just 1 ER on 2 hits. While the Blue Jays are a much tougher opponent than the Pirates, Severino has been strong all year when healthy. His K/9 is just about at 10 and he has an xFIP and ERA right under 3.40.

The Blue Jays are going to be a tough draw for Severino, but the Blue Jays have shown at times this season to have nights where they simply just don’t show up. Severino also lines up well with the Blue Jays. He throws his slider around 45% of the time to righties and he’ll face a lineup filled with righties tonight. Outside of Bichette, all of the regulars in this lineup have a whiff rate over 30% to righty sliders. There could be a lot of upside tonight for Severino, more than the risk hopefully.

Roansy Contreras vs. Cincinnati Reds

I told you that pitching was rough tonight didn’t I? The Pirates’ 22-year-old right-hander will be making his 17^th start of the season tonight. That’s the most that he’s had in any season since A ball in 2019. The Pirates have been mostly capping him at 5-6 innings and we can’t expect tonight to be any different. With options so limited tonight, I’m willing to go with an abbreviated start from him over some of the other gems this slate brings us.

This will be start number 3 vs. the Reds so far this season. In his first 2 starts, Contreras was pretty solid, allowing just 2 ER and striking out 10 over 9 innings of work. At $7.5k tonight on DK, we aren’t going to need too much from him to get value. He’s been in double-digit points on DK in 6 consecutive starts. If he can do that again tonight, I’ll be content.

A case could also be made for Chase Anderson tonight. He’s pitched extremely well over his last 3 starts, allowing just 4 ER. He’s also just $6.3k on DK tonight.

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Atlanta Braves vs. Corey Abbott

The Braves get arguably the best matchup tonight as they take on Corey Abbott. Abbott is coming into this game off one of his poorer starts of the year. Against the Braves a week ago, he allowed 4 ER in just 4 innings of work. In that start, and what really has me going back to this spot, he gave up a 50% hard-hit rate and 2 barrels.

Through the first handful of appearances for Abbott, he had been doing a good job of only allowing soft to medium contact. That has really shifted of late. In his last 3 appearances, he’s allowed 75%, 54%, and 50% hard-hit rates. In his last 14 innings of work, he’s given up 6 barrels and 3 homers. Hitters are now seeing him incredibly well. We’ll want to kick off our Braves stack with lefties. They have a .519 slugging % vs. him and a .384 wOBA. That said, righties have a .452 slugging % vs. him too, so we won’t want to ignore them.

Core/Value: I’m starting out my Braves core with Eddie Rosario, Michael Harris, and Matt Olson. Of the 3, Harris is going to be my favorite. He’s been tormenting righties over the last month as he has a .503 wOBA and a .322 ISO. He’s also been solid vs. them all season. His average against them this season is up to .330 with 17 homers.

Up next is Eddie Rosario. Rosario has been playing sparingly and my hope is that he’s in the lineup today. He’s just $2.5k on DK and in a matchup he should do well in. When in the lineup recently, he’s been good. He has hits in 4 straight, including a 2 hit performance yesterday vs. the Phillies.

With Olson, there’s a risk. Over his last 9 AB, he’s whiffed 6 times. He’s in one of the worst stretches of baseball in his career right now. That said, Abbott is a low strikeout pitcher and if ever there was a bounce-back spot for him, tonight would be it.

Secondary Pieces: Other bats I’ll look to include here tonight will be Ronald Acuna, Austin Riley, and Travis d’Arnaud. All three have wOBA’s over .350 vs. righties over the last month. Acuna and Riley are the heart and soul of this team. If you can fit them tonight, and you should be able to with the cost of pitchers, play them.

Baltimore Orioles vs. Connor Seabold

As someone that lives 20 minutes from Camden Yards, just the mere fact that they are just 4 games out of the playoffs on 9/26 is something I never thought would have been possible this season. The Orioles need to win just about every game at this point to stay in the playoff hunt and get a great matchup today.

Connor Seabold hasn’t pitched much this season, but when he has he’s been pretty bad. He’s been on the mound with the big club 4 times so far this season. In those 4 appearances, he’s allowed 19 ER in just 16 innings of work. Allowing more than a run per inning is a pretty rate! Against Seabold, I’m not going to be overly concerned with splits. So far his in brief Major League career, Seabold hasn’t shown the ability to get either side of the plate out so I won’t be too concerned with splits.

Core: I’m starting my Oriole stack tonight with the 3 guys that should be at the top of the lineup, with 2 guys being the future of this organization. I’m going to build around Cedric Mullins, Adley Rutschman, and Gunnar Henderson. Henderson is coming into this one on the cold side, going hitless in his last 4 games. A matchup with Seabold should wake him. Henderson’s been strong vs. righties over the last month, with a .374 wOBA and a .224 ISO.

Through the first few months of his career, Rutschman has shown why he was the first overall pick in 2019. He’s been a beast behind the plate and has also been really solid offensively. He’s been good vs. righties over the last month, with a .382 wOBA and a .205 ISO. At $4.7k tonight on DK, he’s the cheapest he’s been in quite a while. Let’s take advantage of that “discount”.

Secondary/Value: Other Orioles bats I like tonight will be Anthony Santander, Terrin Vavra, and Kyle Stowers. Should Vavra and Stowers make the lineup tonight, they’ll be great value plays. Both are at or just about at the min price on DK tonight and will get the platoon advantage.

Boston Red Sox vs. Jordan Lyles

A complete game stack here is in play. While Jordan Lyles has been much improved this season, most of that has been at home. His road ERA this season is 2 runs higher at 5.48. He’s been way more susceptible away from Camden Yards and we’ll want to take advantage of that.

Before his complete game shutout of the Tigers, Lyles had thrown 2 duds. One of those duds was against this same Red Sox team. In that game, he allowed 8 ER in just a little less than 4 innings of work. While I doubt we see a carbon copy of that game, I do expect the Red Sox to be able to hit him hard tonight. With Lyles, we want to prioritize getting lefty bats against him. They have a nearly .500 slugging % vs. him and a .360 wOBA. 14 of the 24 homers he’s allowed this season have been to lefties.

Core: Knowing that Lyles is way worse against lefties, I’m going to prioritize getting Rafael Devers, Alex Verdugo, and Reese McGuire into my Red Sox MLB DFS stack. While Devers is the big name here, Verdugo and McGuire are actually the batters that have been against righties over the last month. Verdugo has a wOBA of .379 vs. them and an ISO of .214. McGuire has been even better, with a .324 ISO and a .375 wOBA. All 3 will be in my Red Sox stack tonight.

Value: After my core, I’ll look to get in guys like Xander Bogaerts, Tommy Pham, and for value Yu Chang. Chang, while in limited AB, has a .438 wOBA vs. righties over the last month and is just $2.2k on DK tonight.

MLB DFS Summary

Other MLB DFS stacks I really like tonight will the Pirates vs. Anderson if you don’t use Anderson and the Yankees vs. Gausman.

Make sure to check out our Home Run Model. And Also make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.

3 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS Stack City (Apr. 11)

Dave Gloeckner 3 years ago

written by Dave Gloeckner

Welcome to the first Monday edition of Stack City, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.

We made it through the first weekend of the MLB. Teams are now going into the back end of their rotations and that will open up more teams that make sense to stack. Today we have some really good spots for offense that I’ll be walking you through.

Always make sure to read Adam’s Starting Rotation when setting your lineup. It’s hands down the best pitching article in the MLB DFS business.

Let’s dig in and see if we can find some stacks to use today!

MLB DFS Stacks – Main Slate

Los Angeles Angels vs. Elieser Hernandez

We now have a 4-year track record of baseball to judge Hernandez on and it says he’s someone we can attack with hitters, especially with power hitters. After a successful 2020 season, Hernandez regressed back to the norm in 2021. He finished the season with a 4.33 xFIP and an ERA more than a full run higher than 2020.

One of his biggest struggles last season was with the home run ball as he set a career-high in HR/FB at 20%. His K/9 was the lowest it’s been since his rookie year and like his HR/FB ratio, his HR/9 was the highest of his career. Hernandez has one of the biggest splits differences there is. He really holds up his own vs. righties as they had just a .133 ISO against him last year. Lefties though? Well, they absolutely crushed him with a .313 ISO and a 49% flyball rate.

Knowing that Hernandez is awful against lefties, I’m locking in Shohei Ohtani tonight. Ohtani should have no issues with Hernandez tonight and it’s really just a matter of how hard and how far his hits will go tonight. Ohtani crushed righties last year with a .296 ISO and a .392 wOBA. His price on DK tonight is a little prohibitive at $6k, but on FanDuel at just $4.1k he’s almost a must-play. Even at $6k tonight on DK, I think he’s close to a must-play. We’ll be able to find enough value to fit him in and still field a solid lineup.

Other pieces I love here are Jared Walsh and potentially Josh Rojas. Walsh is another guy that smashes righties as he had a .398 wOBA against them last season. Building around Ohtani and Walsh tonight has the potential to be very lucrative in our MLB DFS contests.

Atlanta Braves vs. Josh Rogers

Lefty Josh Rogers gets the daunting task tonight of facing off the Atlanta Braves. No other way to put it than to say this is going to be really tough for him. Through his brief time in the Majors, Rogers has a very, very clear weakness and that’s righties. Since 2019, Rogers has given up a .376 ISO and a .432 wOBA against righties. They have a 52% flyball hit rate vs. and a 44% hard-hit rate against him. The Braves should trot out a lineup with 7 righties in it. This has the makings of a really rough spot for Rogers.

Both Ozzie Albies and Austin Riley are extremely solid plays here, they’re just both at $4.8k on DK and that’s going to eat up a ton of our salary, especially if we already paid $6k for Ohtani. By jumping down the middle to the back of this lineup, we can get similar production out of guys like Marcell Ozuna, Travis d’Arnaud, and Adam Duvall. All three are significantly cheaper than Riley and Albies.

While Ozuna has yet to hit one over the fence this season, he’s been hitting the ball extremely hard as he has a 61% hard-hit rate in 14 at-bats. Adam Duvall is another guy that has yet to find the seats, even though he’s sporting an 87.5% flyball rate to start the year. It’s only a matter of time for these 2, and with a matchup against a bad pitcher in Rogers, we could see it happen tonight. Oh, and I may have forgotten to mention that Duvall has a .500 ISO against lefty sliders over the few years. Rogers throws his slider 33% of the time to righties.

Seattle Mariners vs. Dylan Bundy

Dylan Bundy is somewhat of an enigma. He has decent stuff, he just can’t put it all together on a consistent basis. Until he does, he’s someone that we should always consider using hitters against. Last year was more of the same for Bundy with an xFIP in the mid 4’s for the fifth time in 6 years.

The difference last season was that homers started to do him in more. He set a career with a HR/FB ratio of 19.2% and his HR/9 was the highest it’s been since 2018. While his FB% was below his career %, his barrel % reached double digits for the first time in his career, nearly 400 basis points higher than his career average. Batters are really squaring him up more than ever.

Bundy is a splits neutral pitcher, so we really don’t need to shy away from any hitters in this lineup. The guy tearing the cover off the ball so far for Seattle is Mitch Haniger. Haniger so far this year already has 2 homers, multiple barrels, and a hard-hit rate north of 55%. Considering his production and matchup, he’s still reasonably priced at $4.6k on DK tonight. At $3.2k on FD, he’s a steal.

Aside from Haniger, I’ll also look to build around JP Crawford and Ty France. Both guys have started out well with OPSs near or at 1.000. You could also take a flyer on Jered Kelenic, but so far he seems overmatched. If stacking the Mariners today, you’d really need to go with a full-stack.

MLB DFS Main Slate Summary

I didn’t write them up as a top stack, but Toronto should and will always be in play. They get a great matchup vs. Taillon tonight, a pitcher that gave up 24 homers last season. They should put up a big number tonight in Yankee Stadium. Other teams to consider today will be some cheap Marlins bats vs. Michael Lorenzen and Twins bats vs. Chris Flexen. Even though he pitched better last season, he’s still Chris Flexen and not a good pitcher.

Good luck today and hope to see some green tonight!

3 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS Aces and Bases (Apr. 9)

jason mezrahi 3 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s five-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:05PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!

The biggest weather threat is in Washington for Chris Bassitt’s first start for his new team — the New York Mets! But there’s no enough rain in the area to fade him or any of the Mets’ bats considering a delay would only be likely much later in the game.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Justin Verlander ($10,400)

There isn’t an SP play on the main slate without risk, and Verlander certainly has some of that coming off TJ surgery. But even with that as a factor, the veteran has the best chance to go deeper into this game than the other arms and has the best projection from a strikeouts/IP standpoint on FanDuel. There’s enough of a gap between him and the rest of the arms to consider him the best play in both cash games and GPPs. I firmly believe that a lot of the concerns folks have about Verlander boil down to typical DFS smokescreens they’ve gleaned from some of his comments, and not actual data. The next guy might end up making sense for large-field GPPs, but Verlander always finds a way to get it done, carried a super low 3.03 and 3.18 xFIP in his last two complete seasons (2018 and 2019), and the Angels have plenty of swing-and-miss potential (and not that much pop) one we get past Ohtani and Trout.

Best GPP Option: Joe Musgrove ($10,000)

I may disagree with WinDaily’s Adam Strangis in his assessment of Verlander in his must-read MLB DFS Starting Rotation 4/9 article, but I really like his support of Musgrove, who should see lower ownership as DFS participants search for value or the safety of a name like Verlander. The D-Backs are off to s slow start offensively and Musgrove could turn in a 40-point performance if he can navigate through the left-handed bats in Arizona. I can’t say I’m not concerned about the high HR/FB rates over his career, but Musgrove is a better first half pitcher with a full tank of gas — we just need it to not catch fire.

Contrarian GPP Play: Chris Bassitt ($9,700)

Bassitt finds himself out of Oakland and pitching for a new team on the road in the nation’s capital, but there’s plenty to like from a game theory perspective about using him tonight. Both SPs in this game offer GPP upside, but more could flock to Joan Adon on both sites given his punt price. Bassitt posted a respectable if somewhat inflated 3.93 xFIP last season compared to the 3.15 ERA, but he’s great at missing bats (0.86 WHIP and 9.10 K/9). Adam’s article points out that Bassitt “kept both sides of the plate under a .285 wOBA” — a stat which really stood out. You may need to use Adon in a few if you’re stacking Coors tonight, but if you want to piece together a couple of contrarian stacks and go for the big win in large-field GPPs, Bassitt could be the right path.

More GPP Value: Joan Adon, Kyle Wright

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Los Angeles Dodgers

We’ve got another huge total Coors game tonight, and the Dodgers are more than a full run ahead of the Rockies in their projected total. That means nabbing Mookie Betts ($4,400), Freddie Freeman ($4,300) and Trea Turner ($4,500), but it would be a slap in the face if I didn’t mention Will Smith ($3,900 — see what I did there?) or Max Muncy at $3,800. It’s also a good idea to do a few wraparound stacks that include 9-hitter Gavin Lux at an affordable $2,900. They won’t be easy to fit,

The Second-best Stack: Atlanta Braves

If you’re not into playing the juggernaut Dodgers or messing around with a popular Coors Field game, you can pivot to the World Champion Atlanta Braves and their impressive projected total (>5.5) against a very hittable Vladimir Gutierrez of the Cincinnati Reds. After the obvious core (1-4) stack of Eddie Rosario ($3,000), Matt Olson ($3,800), Austin Riley ($3,900), and Ozzie Albies ($4,100), we’ve got a couple of possible value plays in Adam Duvall and Alex Dickerson. Duvall has been known to double-dong his way to GPP-winning glory, and Dickerson, if he’s the DH in the lineup, has much less upside but is very cheap for a positive-splits option in a potent lineup. I may deploy a wait-and-see approach to Marcell Ozuna until I see him getting comfortable at the plate again, but he’s also cheap at $3,000.

Value GPP Stack: San Diego Padres

Lost in the slate and the disappointment over the absence of Fernando Tatis, Jr. is a Padres lineup that still has plenty of potential and some powerful bats. I’m prioritizing Manny Machado ($3,800), Jake Cronenworth ($3,300), Trent Grisham ($3,100) and newcomer Luke Voit ($2,700), but there’s even more value in guys like Wil Myers ($2,600) and Eric Hosmer ($2,400). I love that the NL has adopted the DH because we can more easily take advantage of value stacks like the Padres with that extra big bat, and opposing pitcher Zach Davies doesn’t scare me one bit.

Make sure to keep an eye on the starters as lineups are released. Good luck tonight, and please utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!

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MLB DFS Main Slate Summary

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Justin Verlander ($10,400)

Best GPP Option: Joe Musgrove ($10,000)

Contrarian GPP Play: Chris Bassitt ($9,700)

More GPP Value: Joan Adon, Kyle Wright

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Los Angeles Dodgers

The Second-best Stack: Atlanta Braves

Value GPP Stack: San Diego Padres

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