Super Bowl Sunday Night Showdown Strategy: Philadelphia Eagles vs Kansas City Chiefs

It’s the Super Bowl!!!

In this article, I’ll share my top DFS showdown picks and strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, helping you build winning lineups.

For a deeper dive into general showdown rules, make sure to check out David Jones’s “Daily Fantasy Football Showdown: Strategy for Building Winning Lineups” article. It’s essential reading for anyone crafting MME lineups, as player salary and team dynamics can impact each game’s approach.

Link: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/

Update 1: The Chiefs have one of the highest RedZone trip % in the NFL. The Eagles have the best RZ D in the league. That is good for Harrison Butker.

Update 2: I am moving Kelce up a notch in the rankings above Smith.

Update 3: I am limiting KC receivers (not pass catchers) to two

Update 4: You can consider forcing a TE into your lineups if you need to shrink the player pool. I am going to attempt to be overweight.

Note on Quarterbacks:

I will not write up the quarterbacks because the wide receiver and tight end section tend to cover the matchups. The QB rankings are at the bottom of the article. 

Philadelphia Eagles

Running Back

• The Chiefs allowed the least number of fantasy points to running backs in the 2024 regular season (16.3) 
• They gave up nine rushing TDs, and no receiving TDs to the position
• In the playoffs, James Cooks and Joe Mixon combined for 3 rushing TDs against them, while neither back broke 100 yards
• They are ranked 9^th in DVOA against the rush 
• The takeaway here is the Chief’s run game is better than the public think

How do you not recommend playing Saquon Barkley in the Super Bowl? This dude has been the best RB in the league, and now gets the biggest game of his life in a very condensed Eagles offense.

The Chiefs are better against the run than people give them credit for, but Barkley is just too good to fade. There are only two ways you could fade him, on a very small number of your lineups. First, you have Jalen Hurts, and hope he vultures the goal line work. Second, you play the Chiefs D. 

Kenny Gainwell will be active, but he is just not a part of the offense, virtually all season. He will not be getting much run at all in the Super Bowl. 

Will Shipley is a fade. He had two big plays in a blowout last game, and his price shot up. No thanks. 

• Tier 1: Saquon Barkley
• Punt: Kenny Gainwell 

Wide Receiver

• The Chiefs gave up 33.5 fantasy points per game to the position, and 19 receiving TDs in the regular season.
• They are ranked 19^th in DVOA against the pass
• Rank 26^th vs WR1, 10^th against WR2, 12^th against WR3

DeVonta Smith is my favorite receiver in the game. He is going to run most (55%) of the slot routes for the Eagles and that has been the best spot to target the Chiefs. He will see Chamarri Conner for the majority of his routes. Conner allows the highest YPRC, out of any starting corner in the game (1.21). The next worst corner, Cooper DeJean, allows 0.92. for reference. The Chiefs are also ranked the worst (in the game) against the WR2, which in this case I am assigning to DeVonta Smith. 

A.J. Brown will be less of a priority, which doesn’t, mean he is a fade in making multiple entries. I think he is going to pull shadow coverage from Trent McDuffie, who only allows 0.70 YPRC, which is the second-best in the game behind Quinyon Mitchell. 

Those are really the only two receivers that are worth writing up. Jahan Dotson will be on the field more than half of the time, however, he is never more than a punt. At only $1,600 on DraftKings, you could do worse. 

Johnny Wilson will see a handful of snaps. Parris Campbell and Ainis Smith probably don’t see the field. 

• Tier 1: DeVonta Smith
• Tier 2: A.J. Brown
• Punt: Jahan Dotson
• Mega Punt: Johnny Wilson

Probably horrible punts who get you a zero: Ainis Smith, Parris Campbell

Tight End

• The Chiefs gave up 15.53 fantasy points per game to the tight end, in the regular season.
• They allowed 5 receiving TDs, in the regular season (less than I expected to see)
• They allowed the third most receptions while giving up the most yardage (1191) to the position.
• They rank 11^th in DVOA against TE.

DeVonta Smith is my favorite receiver on the Eagles, but Dallas Goedert is my favorite pass catcher. The Chiefs are not good against talented receiving tight ends. The numbers above prove it. Goedert is reasonably priced at only $5,800 on DraftKings, which is great for someone we know will get volume in a condensed offense. 

Grant Calcaterra is on the field a lot, but most of that is going to be for blocking assignments. He is $1,000 and might come down with a catch. I don’t mind him in the Milly Maker, but it is not a high-probability play. E.J. Jenkins is the only other active T.E. for the Eagles right now, and he is a fade. 

• Tier 1: Dallas Goedert
• Punt: Grant Calcaterra 

Kansas City Chiefs

Running Back

• The Eagles allowed the second least number of fantasy points to running backs in the 2024 regular season. 
• They gave up only 5 rushing TDs, and no receiving TDs to the position 
• They are ranked 2^nd in DVOA against the Rush

Kareem Hunt has been the lead back recently so I am going to have to assume he retains that role. Last week he got 58% of snaps, compared to Isiah Pacheco’s 29%. Hunt has also been trusted while converting, goal-line opportunities. 

The Eagles rush defense is elite. I would not be surprised if the Chiefs got no rushing scores. This makes me low on Hunt and Pacheco while giving me more confidence in playing Patrick Mahomes. If I have to choose one, it is going to be Hunt. 

Samaje Perine may get a target or two, making him viable in MME. We know Perine as a pass-catching back, but Hunt and Pacheco are as well, and Perine is third on the depth chart. 

• Tier 2: Kareem Hunt, Isiah Pacheco
• Tier 3: Samaje Perine 

Wide Receiver

• The Eagles allowed 31.7 fantasy points per game, and 17 receiving TDs in the regular season
• PHI ranks 2^nd in DVOA against the pass
  • 23^rd against WR1, 1^st against WR2, 7^th against WR3
• The key takeaway, from personally speaking with Darius Slay this week at Super Bowl Media Day, is the Eagles are less equipped to stop a team that does not have a true “WR1”. He told WinDaily Sports that he prefers to cover someone he knows will get 10-12 targets, as opposed to not knowing where the ball is going. That is exactly what the Chiefs do.

This is the position that will win it or lose it for you. The Chiefs rotate through their receivers every week, which all appear to be matchup-dependent.

The only receiver you know will be on the field for the majority of the game is Xaiver Worthy. 

The batch of Hollywood Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and DeAndre Hopkins will be the next most reliable. Last week Hopkins took a step back with only 18% of snaps, but I don’t trust that will carry over into the Super Bowl. 

Justin Watson will see the field for limited snaps, while Nikko Remigio may find himself on the field for a couple of plays. 

Xaiver Worthy is the Swiss army knife receiver. He moves around the field at basically an equal rate making nailing down a primary matchup impossible. Really what this means is the Chiefs will look to exploit what is working with him, which includes potentially a rush attempt or two. This makes him the top option. 

JuJu makes sense in that he is only $2,000 on DraftKings. Sometimes he is good, sometimes he does nothing. He at least has more speed than Hopkins at this point. He is solid for his value. 

Hollywood Brown will likely be the second-highest targeted receiver, but his price is $5,400. I am shying away from him in my main lineup, solely because we haven’t seen it yet with Mahomes, due to injury. Can he have a big enough game to make the optimal? Absolutely.

DeAndre Hopkins isn’t going to be stretching the field like we have seen in the past, or breaking a huge play. But, I like him a lot to score. He is probably my next favorite pass catcher on the Chiefs, behind Travis Kelce to get a touchdown. This is from a combination of people likely being down on him due to playing time last game and his elevated salary. He still has great hands, and if he gets the red zone target, he is coming down with it. 

Justin Watson would need a big splash play, which isn’t impossible, just unlikely. He should remain in your player pool for MME. 

• Tier 1: Xaiver Worthy
• Tier 2: Hollywood Brown, DeAndre Hopkins, JuJu Smith-Schuster
• Tier 3: Justin Watson
• Punt: Nikko Remigio

Tight End

• Eagles allowed the second least fantasy points to tight ends (9.3)
• They have allowed 5 receiving TDs to the position
• The Eagles allowed the least number of yards to the position (591), which is about half as much as the Chiefs.
• They rank 3^rd in DVOA against the position.
• It is worth noting Zach Ertz had a great game against them in the Conference Championship. 

The matchup is poor, but Travis Kelce is going to get his shots. I do think the salary is a bit high on DraftKings ($9,000). You are asking for a massive game going against the Eagles, who are elite against the position. Low double-digit points won’t cut it for Kelce. He is going to need 100+ or a TD. 

Update: Coming around on Kelce more due to him seeing plenty of rookie coverage. I also expect Mahomes to have to get rid of the ball quick which helps him.

Noah Gray is the only other consideration and he is a solid punt. He is a talented TE and may benefit the most from two TE sets. When the Eagles are focused on Kelce, he should be able to make an impact. 

• Tier 1: Travis Kelce
• Tier 2: Noah Gray
• Fade: Peyton Hendershot 

FanDuel MVP and DraftKings CPT Picks –SNF Showdown 

I want a high-usage player at MVP on FanDuel, like a quarterback or a workhorse running back. You need the highest-scoring player, not the best value.  Since the salaries do not change from flex to MVP on FanDuel, the value at the MVP is not a priority. Take the points up top. 

On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range. 

• FanDuel MVP Tier 1: Barkley, Hurts
• FanDuel MVP Tier 2: Mahomes

• DraftKings CPT Tier 1: Mahomes, Barkley, Hurts
• DraftKings CPT Tier 2: Goedert, D. Smith
• DraftKings CPT Tier 3: Kelce, A.J. Brown, Worthy 
• Punt: Hollywood

Best Value: Goedert

Flex Rankings Tier 1:

• Patrick Mahomes
• Saquon Barkley
• Jalen Hurts
• Dallas Goedert
• DeVonta Smith
• Travis Kelce
• Xaiver Worthy
• A.J. Brown
• Harrison Butker
• Kareem Hunt
• Hollywood Brown
• JuJu Smith-Schuster
• DeAndre Hopkins
• Jake Elliot
• Isiah Pacheco
• Justin Watson
• Chiefs D
• Eagles D
• Jahan Dotson
• Noah Gray

Flex Rankings Tier 2: (Don’t play more than 1 Tier 2 or Tier 3 guys)

• Nikko Remigio
• Samaje Perine
• Kenny Gainwell
• Johnny Wilson
• Grant Calcaterra

Fadeable Flex Punts: (Don’t play. More than 1 Tier 2 or Tier 3 guys – will probably fade them all)

• Carson Steele
• Will Shipley 
• Ainias Smith
• Peyton Hendershot
• Parris Campbell
• E.J. Jenkins

Best Rules for the slate:

• Highest exposed players: Goedert, Mahomes, D. Smith, Barkley
• Lock in at least one, Hurts, Barkley
  • If fading both you play the Chiefs D
• Play at least one
  • Hurts, Mahomes
• If playing Hurts, pair with at least one pass catcher
• If playing Mahomes pair with at least two pass catchers
• Play at least one
  • Goedert, Smith, Brown, Barkley 
  • If we get a high-scoring game, you are going to want at least two and add Hurts to that list.
  • Remember, this is a highly condensed offense which is great for showdown
• Play at least one KC pass-catcher
  • WR, TE, RB
• Don’t play a Kicker against your defense
• I am high on kickers in this game, over 50% of my lineups will have one
• Stack your kicker with at least one skill player (I am not forcing a kicker)
  • Someone has to move the ball down the field
• Don’t play more than 1 kicker
• Don’t play more than 1 defense
• Don’t play a CPT QB against a defense
• Don’t play a CPT RB against a defense
• Don’t play more than one RB per team, per lineup
• Don’t play more than one TE per team, per lineup
• Don’t play more than 1 Tier 2 or Tier 3 guys on the same lineup
• Don’t play more than 1, Brown, Watson
• Don’t play more than 1, Juju, Remigio
• Don’t play more than 1, Brown, Wilson
• Don’t play more than 1, D. Smith, Campbell
• Don’t play more than 1, Dotson, A.Smith
• Don’t play more than 1, Wilson, Campbell, A. Smith, Calcaterra, Jenkins, Gainwell, Shipley
• Don’t play more than 1, Perine, Watson, Remigio, Gray, Hendershot.