Adam Strangis Super Bowl Game Breakdown
It’s the last game of the season and we’ll be doing it Breakdown style, even if we can’t call it Game by Game. We should actually get a pretty good matchup between the Chiefs and the Bucs, with the young GOAT taking on the old GOAT. This game is certainly more than Patrick Mahomes against Tom Brady, but we all know that’s the driving force. Let’s get into things and pick out some captain plays for the Super Bowl Game Breakdown to find the green screens!
Chiefs at Buccaneers, O/U of 56 (Chiefs -3)
Chiefs
QB – Provided his offensive line doesn’t fail him, Patrick Mahomes is in a total smash spot. The Buccaneers had their issues against the pass this season, finishing fifth in DVOA against the pass but that doesn’t tell the whole story. They finished 21st in passing yards allowed per game and Mahomes already totally shredded this defense for 462 yards. That was the high watermark on the season and the other aspect favoring Mahomes is the run defense for Tampa.
It is the best in football, and has been for some time. They allowed the fewest rushing yards in the league by almost 10 full yards. Andy Reid and company are going to run just enough to keep Tampa honest, but not much more. Mahomes is going to have ample opportunity to crush this defense yet again.
The question really boils down to if he’s worth a captain pick and I would lean no. If Mahomes is the optimal captain, it likely means one of two things. The first is for him to have multiple rushing scores. That seems unlikely but the other avenue would be spreading the ball around. That doesn’t seem likely either. With Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce accounting for roughly 60% of the air yards and 50% of the target share, the passing game is too concentrated normally for Mahomes to be optimal. Of course, play him at will but I will likely be underweight at the captain spot.
RB – This spot is fairly ugly in honesty. As of now, we don’t know if the backfield split between Darrell Williams and Clyde Edwards-Helaire continues. In the AFC total game, Williams totaled 14 touches to seven for CEH. That’s not something we’d want to get involved in against such a good run defense. The one reason I won’t totally cast them aside is the Bucs gave up the most receptions to backs in football. CEH had an 11.1% share of the targets and if he’s full go, he could be interesting in PPR formats. Still, this spot is mostly a fade for me. Nobody is really that cheap and I’ll have other priorities. If you’re in a 20 max, a couple shares make sense but that’s as far as I would go.
WR – Let’s hit the way back machine and take a look at part of what I wrote for Hill –
Here’s the really exciting part. Hill plays almost 40% of his routes from the slot. That gets him to Sean Murphy-Bunting in coverage and this man just got pantsed on Monday night. He’s allowing a 2.40 pPT, 137.1 passer rating and a 13.3 YPR. If you think Andy Reid doesn’t know that, think again.
That was before Reek went Godzilla on the Tampa secondary for a massive 60 DK points. Not much of my outlook has changed in the Super Bowl Game Breakdown, but this is interesting. Kelce is more expensive, so I wonder if Hill is the most popular captain since he’s the cheapest of the big three from the Chiefs and everyone saw what he’s capable of against this secondary. Hill is lethal from the slot, and even though Murphy-Bunting is playing better in the playoffs he’s going to struggle. He allowed a 122.7 passer rating and a 2.10 P/PT on the season over 115 targets. Tampa has to come with a different game plan than last time. Having said that, I still think Hill will be one of the most popular options up top and I’ll have shares myself.
The secondary receiver is up in the air. Sammy Watkins is on track to be active for the first time in the postseason, and we shouldn’t ignore that. He had a 13.9% target share to go with a 14.2% share of the air yards, third-highest on the team. Even though he’s only played in 10 games, he has nine RZ targets which is third on the team as well. Watkins played the slot 34% of the time but would mostly see Jamel Dean who was fifth in YPR allowed at 9.6. The veteran could be a cheaper way to get exposure to the Chiefs passing game and would be my preferred target if he’s active. Watkins would make it tough for Mecole Hardman to get a ton of work, so we’ll update this if we need to.
TE – The elephant in the room is on DK, it’s likely not possible to play Mahomes/Hill/Kelce altogether. The cheapest stack of those three leaves $5,666 per slot after that. That’s if you don’t use any of them at captain. It’s potentially workable but I’m not sure if it’s the best path to take. If you’re making a lineup that has some of the high profile Bucs passing game players, you’re going to have to pick a path here. I ever-so-slightly lean Kelce, since there’s receivers to replace Hill. You can play Mike Evans or Chris Godwin for cheaper and hope that Kelce outscores Hill. Tampa gave up nine touchdowns on the year to tight ends and it’s possible that they get so focused on not letting Reek go nuts, Kelce has a slightly easier path. Even though he is more expensive, Kelce is the Chief I’m least likely to fade.
D/ST – These units should likely not be very popular, but I kind of dig the Chiefs. Tampa turned the ball over plenty last week and Kansas City sports a pressure rate of just about 25%. We all know that pressure is the one aspect that makes Brady a mere mortal. They’ve forced 25 turnovers and actually only allow about 22 points per game. In the first matchup, they forced two picks and had five DK points. That could be enough for the salary.
Buccaneers
QB – I still am not that interested in Tom Brady as captain because he’s honestly hasn’t been playing that well in the postseason. When’s the last time you’ve seen Brady go three straight games with a 55% completion rate and an 8/4 ratio of total touchdowns to turnovers? Maybe the rest week will help him and he certainly has the narrative behind him. You know, it’s not like Brady has lost Super Bowls before or anything. KC finished mid-pack in DVOA against the pass so the matchup isn’t anything crazy bad for Brady. I would tend to think he gets at least 35 attempts, but I honestly don’t totally love the price. I will say I like him better as a captain option than Mahomes. If Brady goes nuts, he’s got a better chance spreading the ball around to multiple touchdown receivers. There’s much more a path to Brady hitting optimal value at captain than Mahomes in my eyes. I’m not going to tell you to not play Brady, but fitting him and Mahomes in will require a punt somewhere along the line.
RB – Speaking of punts, Ronald Jones has entered the chat. All eyes are going to be on Playoff Lenny, a.k.a Leonard Fournette, and with good reason. However, RoJo offers double-digit touches at a rock-bottom price. Folks will be scared off by the 1.6 DK in the NFC title game but he did have 10 carries. That’s in line with the 13 he got in the previous week as well. Since the Chiefs struggled against the run with the 31st ranked DVOA, this is a very solid spot. I don’t love the fact that Jones is not involved in the passing game. Fournette has racked up 17 targets over the postseason run to just one for Jones. Still, the price difference is undeniable. In the first matchup, Jones took 10 touches and turned it into 17.3 DK with over 100 scrimmage yards and a score. Don’t expect that but RoJo stands to be the most attractive punt right now.
Fournette is the “better” choice in the Super Bowl Game Breakdown because if the Bucs have to abandon the run, he’s going to get the passing work. You could take the path of playing Chiefs pass game+Fournette and either Evans or Godwin without Brady. If you threw Jones and Fournette together, you lock up all the backfield touches for the Bucs at under $10,000 and have some wiggle room left to play with. Either way, Jones looks like a key way to mix in a punt with some serious upside in this game.
WR – Mike Evans has been super quiet the past two weeks, but consider who he’s faced. Marshon Lattimore always gives him fits and Jaire Alexander never really left him after a big touchdown grab early in the game. If folks want to overlook Evans, that’s fine by me. Bashaud Breeland has had a very solid season for the Chiefs, allowing just a 1.40 P/PT and a 50.8% completion rate (third-best). He’s also giving about six inches and 35 pounds to Evans, a major physical mismatch. Brady loves him in the RZ and EZ, where he racked up 18 and 14 targets respectively.
Corner L’Jarius Sneed really played well for the Chiefs when he was active since he played just nine games. He’s lined up in the slot and only allowed a 52.3% catch rate and a 1.30 P/PT on the season across 44 targets. They could elect to use Sneed on Chris Godwin or possibly Tyrann Mathieu, who played some slot as well. Either way, the road is a tough on for Godwin. It’s not like Antonio Brown has a cakewalk either. He gets Charvarius Ward for a good chunk of the game. Ward was targeted 67 times and allowed a 1.80 P/PT. While it’s the “easiest” matchup on the board, AB has only been targeted six times total in two playoff games. He’s not even all that cheap at $6,200. I’d rather play one of Evans or Godwin even at the salary.
TE – If you’re playing a tight end, Cameron Brate looks like he’s going to be the safest bet and there is upside here too. Even Dawson Knox of the Bills posted 15+ DK points, and KC struggled against the tight ends all year. They allowed the seventh-most DK points, fifth-most yards, and nine touchdowns. Brate has been the pass catcher in the playoffs with 16 total targets and never scoring below nine DK points. Compare that to Rob Gronkowski who has been targeted seven times and has two games of just one target. If the game goes high-scoring as projected, Brate is a very solid way to get exposure to the Tampa pass game.
D/ST – I was prepared to be willing to play them, but they are more expensive than the Chiefs. Kansas City could have a major weakness with the loss of tackle Eric Fisher. It’s hard to really quantify that because it happened so late in the Buffalo game. One thing the Bucs do extremely well is get pressure at the third-highest rate in football, 27.9%. I have to believe that the Chiefs will have an answer for that and I’m not overly concerned with it. If playing a defense, I’d be much heavier on the Chiefs.
Captain Pool – Kelce, Hill, Fournette, Evans, Godwin, Brate
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