Welcome to my NFL Daily Fantasy Sports guide for this Sunday’s games! In this article, I’ll walk you through my strategic approach for selecting top players and crafting optimal lineups to give you a winning edge in NFL DFS for 2024. I’ve thoroughly analyzed each game and position to highlight the best plays and explain the reasoning behind my selections.
*I’ll be updating this article on Sunday morning if there are any changes. Be sure to check back for the most current and accurate DFS plays.
Quarterback Rankings
Truth be told quarterback is the last position I am concerned with this week. I am building with RBs, WR, and TE and slotting in the QB that fits that build. You don’t need to force in the guy at the top of these rankings:
- Joe Burrow
- Jalen Hurts
- Caleb Williams
- Jameis Winston
- Kirk Cousins
- Baker Mayfield
- Jordan Love
Running Back
Kareem Hunt
The Raiders allow the 5th most fantasy points to running backs in the league. Hunt has been a volume monster the past two weeks with the Chiefs struggling to keep their receiving core healthy. He has 49 carries and 3 catches over that time frame. He has surpassed 20 DK points in consecutive contests against the 49ers and the Saints. The Saints D-Line is just as bad as the Raiders while San Francisco is better, but still not good. At only a $6,300 salary on DraftKings, rostering Hunt makes it easy to spend up on some huge upside wide receiver plays.
Javonte Williams
He gets the luxury of facing the worst rush defense in the league (32nd in DVOA) at a salary of only $6,000. The Panthers have allowed 12 rushing TDs in just 7 weeks while allowing the most yards on the ground and most fantasy points (32.9). He is also coming off his best game of the season, rushing for 88 yards (meh) and getting in the box twice. He isn’t exactly a high-volume option, but he is the Broncos lead rusher nonetheless. He is a lock in cash games, and I will also have plenty in GPPs.
Rachaad White
There are going to be ample opportunities for any offensive player wearing a Tampa Bay jersey as the price had not adjusted before the Mike Evans and Chris Godwin injuries. White, who broke out in Week 7, is only $5,700 on DraftKings. I expect the Buccaneers to attempt to establish the run against the Atlanta Falcons, which is not an impossible task. They are ranked 19th against the run via DVOA and they allow the 11th most receptions to RBs. White will get starter carries, although certainly Bucky Irving (who is questionable) and Sean Tucker will get their attempts too. The best path for the Bucs is to slow the game down and gradually move the chains down the field while keeping Kirk Cousins on the sidelines. White is also the most reliable pass-catching back for Baker Mayfield, as proven last week with 6 catches and two receiving touchdowns.
Note: If Bucky Irving is out, Sean Tucker could see close to 10 touches.
Others to consider:
- Derrick Henry
- Kenneth Walker
- Joe Mixon
- Devon Achane
- J.K. Dobbins
- Breece Hall
- Chase Brown
Wide Receiver
These are not necessarily listed in order of preference. There is a lot to like this week.
Tyreek Hill
Tua is back, and Tyreek Hill is the cheapest I remember seeing him. Don’t overthink this one. Lock him in and keep moving.
A.J. Brown
The Eagles and Bengals game has the potential to be a high-scoring shootout. Brown will see a lot of Cam Tyler-Britt (1.28 YPRC) while having the highest YPRR in the entire league at 3.78. Brown is also in the top 10 of Target %. The Bengals are ranked 22nd against the WR1 (Brown) while being ranked 2nd against the WR2 (Smith). This matchup is one of the best I have seen all season and he is coming in at 6% owned. I will not sacrifice Tyreek Hill for Brown but I will certainly play them together.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
All the Seattle receivers are technically underpriced this week with DK Metcalf doubtful. JSN runs out of the slot on 85% of his routes, which happens to be where the Bills struggle the most. Slot Corner Taron Johnson allows 1.45 YPR, which is more than twice as much as the outside corners. There is no issue taking a shot on Tyler Lockett as well, but JSN is the preference.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Look, all of these guys are in play. They are all under $3,800 on DraftKings and will play essentially every snap with an MVP candidate in a game they are likely trailing. Make no mistake, I think they will attempt to establish the run, but they are still going to have to throw the ball.
I would like to think that Jalen McMillan would be featured in the slot more, but it isn’t a guarantee. The safer route, for DFS players is to assume that all three of the starting receivers move all over the field, like they have been doing all season when they have had the opportunity to play. Trey Palmer technically has the highest slot route percentage out of everyone but that is also misleading due to who he was on the field with. Palmer makes the most sense to put on the outside in my opinion.
I honestly think the safest play is Sterling Shepard, simply due to the chemistry he has shown with Mayfield in the NFL and at Oklahoma. He technically has the lowest target % out of the starters, however, he was on the field with Evans and Godwin a lot. He does have the highest air-yard targets, but it is only slightly higher than Jalen McMillan. Trey Palmer is behind both Shepard and McMillan on the depth chart, but that no longer matters. He will be out there a ton and is more than capable of doing enough to beat a $3,500 salary.
The cornerback’s matchups just don’t mean much here. Jalen McMillan and Sterling Shepard are tied for my first choice here. Trey Palmer will be the dude if I don’t have the salary for anyone else. I will certainly have at least one of these guys (or Cade Otton) on my main lineup.
Cedric Tillman/Elijah Moore
Tillman emerged last week with 8 catches on 12 targets after the Amari Cooper trade. This week he takes on the Ravens (18th in DVOA against the pass) at only $3,300. You don’t have to do much to exceed value. He will run on the perimeter for the majority of his routes, largely avoiding Marlon Humphry (Update: Humphry was downgraded to doubtful). There are no stats to point to for any of the Brown’s receivers this season that are encouraging, but of course, he had a terrible quarterback throwing him the ball. This is simply a “chase” play that makes a lot of sense considering the game script of the Ravens likely leading for the majority of the game.
I would love to go contrarian with Elijah Moore, who no one is talking about, after catching 6 of 7 targets in the same week. The slot matchup DID look terrible, but now that Marlon Humphrey is doubtful it has gotten much better. He is priced slightly higher at $3,700 and might be worth a small shot in the Milly Maker. That being said, I am not playing him over any of the TB values.
Amari Cooper
He has another week under his belt working with the Bills offense and is still priced as if Deshaun Watson is throwing him the ball. He pulls a primary matchup of Nehemiah Pritchett, who I have been targeting pretty regularly. He allows 1.54 YPRC which is the second worst on the slate facing a “stud” receiver, behind only Zay Flowers.
Ja’Marr Chase
The Eagles are the worst team against the WR1 and Chase averages the most fantasy points in the league (tied with Chris Godwin) for a wide receiver. You do the math.
DeAndre Hopkins
$4,700 for Mahomes top receiver? Yes, please. Side note, a pairing of Amari Cooper and Devante Adams won the Milly on FanDuel last week. Vet “Studs” moving teams just means they are underpriced. They don’t need to “know the playbook”.
Hint: You can easily make Tyreek Hill, AJ Brown, and Ja’Marr Chase lineups this week with all the plays from this article.
Others to consider/mix in MME
- Drake London
- DJ Moore
- Tyler Lockett
- Jerry Jeudy
- Zay Flowers: Fantastic matchup, but a little beat up, and the game script doesn’t scream play Ravens receivers
- Calvin Ridley
- Elijah Moore
Tight End
Cade Otton
This one is pretty simple. It is basically Tucker Kraft 2.0 from Week 5. He is clearly way underpriced and will be mega TE chalk. If you are playing anything including cash games, single entry, 3-Max, or a Milly Maker you probably just eat the chalk here. The Buccaneers are decimated at the wide receiver and we saw exactly what Baker Mayfield is going to do with no Mike Evans or Chris Godwin. The MVP candidate is still going to let it fly and we saw Otton be the main beneficiary. He should exceed his salary just on catches alone. The yardage and hopefully a score is just icing on the creamsicle cake. I will have a ton of these guys.
Noah Fant
DK Metcalf is doubtful and Fant has caught the last 21 passes Geno Smith has sent his direction. He is only $3,700.
Others to consider: ( I am not opposed to playing 2 tight ends this week, especially on National Tight End Day)
- David Njoku
- Brock Bowers
Again, I will update this article if anything changes. Be sure to come back and check for the most up-to-date plays. I can already tell you I will be adding another running back in the morning.