Welcome to my NFL Daily Fantasy Sports guide for this Sunday’s games! In this article, I’ll walk you through my strategic approach for selecting top players and crafting optimal lineups to give you a winning edge in NFL DFS for 2024. I’ve thoroughly analyzed each game and position to highlight the best plays and explain the reasoning behind my selections.
*I’ll be updating this article on Sunday morning if there are any changes. Be sure to check back for the most current and accurate DFS plays.
Quarterback
Spencer Rattler
Every few seasons we get a DFS gift such as we got this week. We have a quarterback (doesn’t matter who) starting at $4,000. It also doesn’t matter what the matchup is when you have a QB priced like this, but this Tampa Bay defense just got lit up by Kirk Cousins for 505 passing yards, which was an Atlanta franchise record. You just plug Rattler in and move on. You can pair him with a WR if you want but you don’t have to. A large portion of almost everyone else in his price range hasn’t even taken a snap on an NFL field this season or are practice squad players.
Dak Prescott
The Detroit Lions are elite at stopping the run (3rd least number of fantasy points allowed to the RB) and the Dallas Cowboys are one of the worst teams running the football. Dak Prescott is going to have to throw it, perhaps more than he has all season. The good news for him is that the Lions give up the second most fantasy points to receivers (48.3 per game), and Dak only throws predictable volume to a few pass catchers. If you don’t land on Dak, because you have Spencer Rattler, then get at least one of his receivers or Jake Ferguson.
Others to consider:
- Lamar Jackson
Running Back
Best Spend Up: Derrick Henry
Bucky Irving
You have been waiting to play Bucky Irving and now is your chance. The matchup on paper against the Saints isn’t something you usually target, but the salary and upside of the explosive Irving make it hard to not make him one of your first clicks. He should be game script proof, whether they are leading or playing catchup, and if he scores you 100% will have to have him.
Bijan Robinson
This is his cheapest salary ($6,600) I can ever remember and he takes on a Carolina Panthers team that is ranked 26th in DVOA against the run. Drake London having a tough matchup leads me to another skill position in this offense. Darnell Mooney is my overall favorite Falcon, but if you need a RB, landing on Bijan is a good way to go, especially in cash games.
James Conner
It is going to rain during the Green Bay game. They may be forced to focus on the run more than they initially intended heading into the week. The Packers have shown holes on the defensive line, yet they have not been exploited every week due to the game script. They have only been “run on” 99 times this year yet allow the 14th most fantasy points to running backs. It is not a “smash” spot, but Conner is a guy who often slips through the cracks for DFS players. He is averaging 16.1 DK points per game. That is more than Bijan Robinson, Josh Jacobs, and Tony Pollard.
Others to consider:
- Saquon Barkley
- Alvin Kamara: Incredible pivot from Spencer Rattler
- David Montgomery: Matchup plus gut call
- Tony Pollard
- Austin Ekeler
- J.K. Dobbins
- Antonio Gibson
Wide Receiver
CeeDee Lamb and the Dallas Cowboys
A lot of the reason why I will be playing Lamb is under the Dak Prescott section. I will be forcing at least one Cowboy pass catcher, including tight end, in every lineup that I make. Lamb should continue to be the target monster running 50% of his routes out of the slot. The softest spot on their secondary is the technically left side covered by Carlton Davis. Lamb is on the left about 24% of the time, while Jalen Brooks and Jalen Tolbert essentially split the other snaps. Tolbert has established himself as the clear WR2, but in a shootout, there is no reason to cross Brooks’ name out of your MME player pool at only $3,300.
Chris Godwin
Mike Evans will be facing Marshon Lattimore in shadow coverage again this week which in theory should slow down Evans and funnel passes to slot receiver Chris Godwin. Godwin has a higher target share (23.3%) than Evans already as well as a higher YPRR (2.41). There are two concerns I have with this play. The first is that the game gets out of hand due to struggling QB play from the Saints. Secondly, Evans does have a good day. He is currently sitting on 99 career-receiving TDs and I would be a lot of money for him and Baker to have a plan to drop his 100th today on Lattimore for career bragging rights plus a touch of spite.
Darnell Mooney
Drake London is going to be shadowed by Jaycee Horn, which should push the volume over toward Darnell Mooney again who is having a breakout season. Mooney has a 21% target share, compared to London’s 24% target share, showing the confidence Cousins already has in him. He is going to see a ton of Mike Jackson who allows 1.45 YPRC compared to just 0.84 YPRC by Horn. I love Mooney this week and he will most likely find himself on my main lineup. Given the salaries and matchup, I am not excluding him from Bijan Robinson builds.
Jameson Williams
I like the matchup for Williams but think I prefer to ground game or Sam LaPorta to fill a tight end spot. He runs 33% of his routes on the left side of the field occupied by Caelen Carson who gives up 1.77 YPRC. For those wondering Amon-Ra St. Brown runs 20% of his routes on the left, so there will still be ample opportunity for him there and out of the slot vs Jourdan Lewis. This is the highest rate on the entire slate by a corner. Williams as a last receiver in as a guy who can break a big play isn’t something I am not avoiding. The targets have been down the past two weeks, but let’s not forget this is a guy who got 20 targets in the first two games. There are ups and down weeks for guys like Williams, and if he sees any kind of significant volume, from his QB who just threw a perfect game, he could find himself on the GPP winning lineup.
Others to consider/mix in MME
- Amon Ra St. Brown
- A.J. Brown
- Stefon Diggs
- Jayden Reed
- Chris Olave
- DeVonta Smith
- Tank Dell
- Alec Pierce/Adonai Mitchell – we need the Colts news
- DeAndre Hopkins
- George Pickens
- Ladd McConkey
- There is value in the Las Vegas receivers (Tre Tucker and DJ Turner) but depending on how you build you may not need to reach here.
Tight End Rankings
- Sam LaPorta
- Jake Ferguson
- Brock Bowers
- Hunter Henry
I am spending down at QB, so I don’t need to find a value punt this week.
Again, I will update this article if anything changes. Be sure to come back and check for the most up-to-date plays. I can already tell you I will be adding another running back in the morning.