Sunday’s Best NFL DFS Core Plays: GPP Building Blocks – Week 5

Welcome to my NFL Daily Fantasy Sports guide for this Sunday’s games! In this article, I’ll walk you through my strategic approach for selecting top players and crafting optimal lineups to give you a winning edge in NFL DFS for 2024. I’ve thoroughly analyzed each game and position to highlight the best plays and explain the reasoning behind my selections.

*I’ll be updating this article on Sunday morning if there are any changes. Be sure to check back for the most current and accurate DFS plays.

Sunday Update:

• My top RBs are Mason, Jacobs, Henry and Sermon
• Fading Walker
• Having a growing concern with the Jacksonville game due to the weather
• Sutton has moved up the board for me
• Dalton Schultz at TE if you do not have a Texan
• Mark Andrews pays off
• Jayden Daniels has been added to the pool

Quarterback 

Joe Flacco 

It feels like either the Colt’s pass game or run game (Trey Sermon) will make the optimal. The Jaguars on the other side are set up nicely to score points so I want to lean into the Colt’s pass game as I think there is a good chance they are trailing and have to abandon Sermon to some extent in the 4th quarter. Flacco has looked more than competent as a passer in the first game with the Colts and certainly at the end of last season with the Browns. The Jaguars are ranked dead last in defensive DVOA. This includes being last (32nd) in DVOA against the pass and 11th against the run. They have also been the third-worst team making a tackle in the open field which gives more encouragement one of his receivers can bust open a big play. 

Others to consider:

• Jordan Love
• Lamar Jackson
• Trevor Lawrence: I like his pass catchers so I guess I like him in GPPs 
• Brock Purdy

Running Back 

Best Pay Ups that don’t need much explanation. The combination of skill, volume, and matchup makes them clear top options. They are listed in order of preference. 

• Derrick Henry
• Kyren Williams
• Jordan Mason
• Kenneth Walker

Josh Jacobs

In Week 1 he had a bad matchup against the Eagles. In Week 2 he crushed with 32 carries and 151 yards, he just didn’t get in the endzone. In Week 3, Jordan Love was out and the offensive plans changed. In Week 4, the Packers fell way behind and his rushing attempts were scripted out. In Week 5, it is all lining up nicely for Josh Jacobs. Love is back, and two of the three starting receivers from Week 1 are out. Jacobs also gets to take on a Rams team that is 31^st in DVOA against the run and has allowed the single most rushing yards (524) in the league. He makes for an excellent pivot off the Packers pass game (not that Reed and Wicks are bad plays). All we need is for the game script to go Jacobs’s way for more rushing opportunities, and honestly, that is the most likely scenario. 

Alexander Mattison

Let me take you back to the year 2022 when Dalvin Cook was ruled out and we all lock-buttoned Alexander Mattison at a deflated salary in every DFS lineup we made. Those were the good old days. Then last season happened and he was a major letdown. The same thing could be said for Tony Pollard when he got opportunities with Zeke out or limited. They were both explosive backups that didn’t prevail in their new roles last season. Well, Pollard is having a bit of a resurgence. Could the same be true for Mattison? Perhaps, even though it is a difficult matchup. The Broncos are ranked 5^th in DVOA against the run while allowing only one rushing TD. The thing is that the Raiders may just be forced to try and establish the run, and maybe, just maybe, Mattison breaks one. The Broncos are going to take Jacoby Meyers out of the game, and DeVante Adams is already out of there, so they really have no choice but the see what Mattison has left in the tank. I am willing to let him hurt me one more time or win me a bunch of money.

Trey Sermon

I am typically a Sermon hater but I was watching some recent film on him and he looked surprisingly spry. I don’t hate the play as much as I thought I would. He is certainly safer than Tyrone Tracy.

Antonio Gibson

Gibson is in line to start for the Patriots with Rhamondre Stevenson losing his job, for at least a week, due to fumbling issues. The Dolphins are bad at defending the run, allowing 29 DraftKings points per game to the position. They have allowed 472 rushing yards through 4 games and a league-high 7 rushing touchdowns. Gibson has looked pretty good in a limited run for New England. He has the 10th-highest YPA for running backs (5.2) and should be used in the passing game.  

Tyrone Tracy

I am considering him as a fill-in for Devin Singletary ONLY based on his salary of $4,300. He likely sees the majority of starter snaps, but I am not so sure that is going to be a high number. In his last season in the NCAA, he averaged just over 10 carries per game and 1.7 receptions per game. He is apparently a converted wide receiver but I have seen no evidence of it by simply checking his receiving statistics in college. The matchup is bad. Seattle is ranked 7th in DVOA against the rush. He is only worth a dart throw in large-field GPPs because he is so cheap. That’s all. 

Others to consider:

• James Cook
• Jerome Ford

Wide Receiver 

Indianapolis Colts

One thing we know about Joe Flacco is he will stand in the pocket and pepper his top pass catchers. This pass game for the Colts be a larger focus than usual with Jonathan Taylor sitting out and Trey Sermon getting the start. Passing is certainly going to be the easiest way to move the chains. The Jags allow the 4th most receptions and 5^th most fantasy points to receivers, but to be transparent they also haven’t been great at stopping the run. Michael Pittman runs a relatively even split on the outside, while Joshua Downs absorbs 94% of the slot routes. Jarrian Jones covers the slot, while Ronald Darby and Montaric Brown occupy the outside. There is not a bad matchup on paper for either of the receivers. The mid-range price tag on both Pittman and Downs put them firmly in play. 

Stefon Diggs

I am going to run it back with Diggs this week against his former team, the Buffalo Bills. The narrative is not the only reason of course although that is a real motivator, especially after Josh Allen’s public “dig” at Diggs two weeks ago. We still have a Houston team that is going to need to throw it with Joe Mixon out. Plus we have much tougher matchups on the outside for Tank Dell and Nico Collins (not that it appears to matter). Diggs runs out of the slot in 64% of his routes. The Bills slot corner allows 2.67 YPRC. This is the second-worst rate in the entire league for starting corners. Diggs should eat early and often in this one, which you know he has had circled on his calendar. 

Green Bay Packers

The Los Angeles Rams are ranked 31^st in DVOA against receivers. They are ranked 12^th against the WR 1 and 31st against the WR 2. Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs are out. Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks are going to be the two main receivers who benefit. Both played over 75% of snaps last week, and that was with Romeo Doubs in. Reed gets most of the slot routes (87%) and has shown the most promise when given the expanded opportunity so he is my preferred receiver. That being said, I am perfectly fine landing on Wicks if I do not have the extra $1,500 to get Reed. 

Brian Thomas Jr. 

Although I do like the primary slot matchup for Kirk, I will lean more toward Brian Thomas Jr. against the Colts who run a ton of zone coverage. Thomas’s primary matchup is going to be against Jaylon Jones on the right side of the field for about 60% of snaps. Jones allows by far the most air yards and YPRC on the Jags. 

Side note: Evan Engram is not expected to play. 

Rome Odunze

DJ Moore is going to be shadowed by Jaycee Horn in his “revenge game” who has been solid. Keenan Allen will get the majority of the slot routes, which are covered by Troy Hill, who is allowing less YPRC than Jaycee Horn. Most of the production against the Panther secondary comes at the expense of Mike Jackson who will swap sides with Horn and primarily be on Rome Odunze. He allows over twice as much production as Horn per target. I don’t love Rome, but on paper, he has the best matchup. That is unless DJ Moore is in Caleb Williams’s ear begging for a ton of targets against his old team. 

Courtland Sutton

I have been convincing myself it is time to buy low on Bo Nix after his very tough schedule to start his career. However, there is really no reason to play him and just not play his top pass catcher Sutton. If Bo has a good day, Sutton certainly will have a better one. 

Others to consider/mix in MME

• DK Metcalf
• Deebo Samuel 
• Amari Cooper
• Xavier Legette 
• Courtland Sutton
• Tee Higgins
• Rashod Bateman
• Tee Higgins
• Tutu Atwell
• Jordan Whittington
• Keon Coleman
• Mack Hollins

Tight End 

Brenton Strange

Evan Engram is not expected to play so we get another opportunity to play Brenton Strange. He has been consistent (for a tight end), in somewhat difficult matchups. He gets to take on the Colts this Sunday, who are much worse against tight ends than the Texans, Bills, and Browns who he has recently seen. The Colts allow 14.7 fantasy points to the position per game. They have allowed 2 receiving TDs this season to tight ends, whereas the three teams I mentioned above have allowed a combined 2 receiving tight ends (one at the hands of Strange). 

Tucker Kraft

I have a really hard time chasing points at tight end, especially when they are chalk but it is hard to deny that it is a good spot for Kraft at only $3,500.  

Best Spend ups:

• Dalton Kincaid
• Brock Bowers

Others to consider:

• Mike Gesicki 
• Dalton Schultz
• Mark Andrews: Salary play, “cold check”
• Theo Johnson 

Again, I will update this article if anything changes. Be sure to come back and check for the most up-to-date plays. I can already tell you I will be adding another running back in the morning.